The construction industry is one of the most fatal industries, so it is important to pay more attention to safety solutions. Even though work-related accidents are known as major waste in construction projects, little attention has been paid so far to incorporating safety into the lean construction framework. In this research, lean construction theory is reviewed through the lens of safety. That being so, the identified challenges in previous research on improving safety in construction projects are categorized and those related to the concept of lean project delivery are introduced. Then, the principles of the lean construction framework are explained and the relevant changes for incorporating safety into the framework are introduced and discussed. It is expected that this hybrid model would further enrich the lean construction framework. The careful attention of project executives to this model may improve the safety situation in construction projects.

This study utilizes repeated geoacoustic mapping to quantify the morphodynamic response of the nearshore to storm-induced changes. The aim of this study was to quantitatively map the nearshore zone of Assateague Island National Seashore (ASIS) to determine what changes in bottom sediments, benthic fauna and fish habitat are attributable to storm events including hurricane Sandy and the passage of hurricane Joaquin. Specifically, (1) the entire domain of the National Parks Service offshore area was mapped with side-scan sonar and multibeam bathymetry at a resolution comparable to that of the existing pre-storm survey, (2) a subset of the benthic stations were resampled that represented all sediment strata previously identified, and (3) newly obtained data were compared to that from the pre-storm survey to determined changes that could be attributed to specific storms such as Sandy and Joaquin. Capturing event specific dynamics requires rapid response surveys in close temporal association of the before and after period. The time-lapse between the pre-storm surveys for Sandy and our study meant that only a time and storm integrated signature for that storm could be obtained whereas with hurricane Joaquin we could identify impacts to the habitat type and geomorphology more directly related to that particular storm. This storm impacts study provides for the National Park Service direct documentation of storm-related changes in sediments and marine habitats on multiple scales: from large scale, side-scan sonar maps and interpretation of acoustic bottom types, to characterize as fully as possible habitats from 1 to 10 m up to many kilometer scales, as well as from point benthic samples within each sediment stratum and these results can help guide management of the island resources.

Building more energy efficient and sustainable urban areas that will both mitigate the effect of climate change and adapt for the future climate, requires the development new tools and methods that can help urban planners, architect and communities achieve this goal. In the current study, we designed a workflow that links different methodologies developed separately, to derive the energy consumption of a university school campus for the future. Three different scenarios for typical future years (2039, 2069, 2099) were run as well as a renovation scenario (Minergie-P). We analyse the impact of climate change on the heating and cooling demand of the buildings and determined the relevance of the accounting of the local climate in this particular context. The results from the simulations showed that in the future there will a constant decrease in the heating demand while for the cooling demand there will be a significant increase. It was further demonstrated that when the local climate was taken into account there was an even higher rise in the cooling demand but also that the proposed renovations were not sufficient to design resilient buildings. We then discuss the implication of this work on the simulation of building energy consumption at the neighbourhood scale and the impact of future local climate on energy system design. We finally give a few perspective regarding improved urban design and possible pathways for the future urban areas.

Plans are currently being drafted for the next decade of action on biodiversity – both the post-2020 Global Biodiversity Framework of the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD) and Biodiversity Strategy of the European Union (EU). Freshwater biodiversity is disproportionately threatened and under-prioritized relative to the marine and terrestrial biota, despite supporting a richness of species and ecosystems with their own intrinsic value and providing multiple essential ecosystem services. Future policies and strategies must have a greater focus on the unique ecology of freshwater life and its multiple threats, and now is a critical time to reflect on how this may be achieved. We identify priority topics including environmental flows, water quality, invasive species, integrated water resources management, strategic conservation planning, and emerging technologies for freshwater ecosystem monitoring. We synthesize these topics with decades of first-hand experience and recent literature into 14 special recommendations for global freshwater biodiversity conservation based on the successes and setbacks of European policy, management and research. Applying and following these recommendations will inform and enhance the ability of global and European post-2020 biodiversity agreements to halt and reverse the rapid global decline of freshwater biodiversity.

Earth’s land surface area is raised from conventionally flat 15 to 64 Gha to account for hilly undulation and soil relief detail. Three main aspects are: topography, rugosity/tortuosity and micro-relief/porosity of vegetation-free ground. Recalibration is arrived at from four approaches: first, direct empirical estimates from the few compiled satellite or LiDAR data with means of +2.5–26% progressively overlain by +94% at cm² scale for soil ruggedness then +108% for mm² micro-relief; second, from digital elevation models with 1.6–2.0 times flat areas; third, by ‘reverse engineering’ global soil bulk densities and carbon reserves requiring x 2–6 land. Finally, a Fermi estimation conveniently sets the World’s new surface area – that exposed to Sun, air and rain – at 100 Gha (with 36 Gha flat ocean). Soil organic carbon (SOC) is thence raised to 8,580 Gt mainly in SOM/humus with its biotic complexity plus roots, VAM-fungi and leaf-litter, that itself = 17,800 Gt. Although four to six times IPCC’s or NASA/NOAA’s calculations of just 1,500–2,300 Gt SOC, this is likely an underestimation. Global biomass and biodiversity are at least doubled (x 2–3.5) and net primary productivity (NPP) similarly increased on land to >270 Gt C yr^-1 due to terrain.

Objectives: The promising specific growth regulators are employed tissue culture of the bamboo species. The specific natural hardening mixture supports the acclimatization and adaptation of the protected cultivation. The bamboo species contribute to the carbon sequestration and stabilization of the environment. Findings: The growth regulator 2, 4-D encourages callus induction and growth regulators NAA + TDZ, BAP + Kinetin + Gelrite, BAP + Kinetin + Coconut water + myo-inositol, NAA and TDZ impose plant regeneration in the Bambusa species. The growth regulator of 2,4-D, 2,4-D + Kinetin, 2,4-D + BA, 2,4-D + BAP and 2,4-D + NAA + BAP produces callus induction in the Dendrocalamus species. The growth regulator of TDZ, BA and IBA + Coumarin + Putrescine, BAP + GA3, NAA + Kinetin, BA + IBA, BA + Kinetin + NAA, NAA + Kinetin, Kinetin + IAA has facilitated shoot regeneration in the Dendrocalamus species with the specific period. The growth regulator of BA and TDZ; BAP + TDZ, IBA + Coumarin + Putrescine, BAP + GA3, NAA + Kinetin, BA + IBA, BA + Kinetin + NAA, NAA + Kinetin, Kinetin + IAA develops root regeneration with unambiguous time in the Dendrocalamus species. The growth regulator of BAP and Kinetin + BAP imposes shoot regeneration and IBA and IBA + Coumarin + sucrose conducts root regeneration in the edible bamboo. The natural hardening materials of cocopeat, vermicompost, perlite, cow dung, FYM, compost, soil & garden soil and humus soil, perlite, and FYM recommend in the acclimatization and adaptation of the Bambusa species and Dendrocalamus species respectively. Novelty: The standard growth regulators and hardening mixtures impose tissue culture, acclimatization and adaptation in the bamboo species. The bamboo species involves in managing carbon sequestration, biogeochemical cycle and the environment.

El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is an important of mode of climatic variability that through altering climate patterns exerts a discernible impact on ecosystems and society. For this reason, ENSO has attracted much interest in the climate and health science community with many analysts investigating ENSO health links through considering the degree of dependency of the incidence of a range of climate diseases on the occurrence of El Niño events. Because of the mounting interest in the relationship between ENSO as a major mode of climatic variability and health this paper presents an overview of the basic characteristics of the ENSO phenomenon and its climate impacts, discusses the use of ENSO indices in climate and health research and outlines the present understanding of ENSO health associations. Also touched upon are ENSO-based seasonal health forecasting and the possible impacts of climate change on ENSO and the implications this holds for future assessments of ENSO health associations. The review concludes that there is still some way to go before a thorough understanding of the association between ENSO and health is achieved with a need to move beyond analyses undertaken through a purely statistical lens with due acknowledgement that ENSO as a complex non-canonical phenomenon and that simple ENSO health associations should not be expected.

This work presents an application called APPMAR 1.0 based on Python ® environment, built to perform the downloading, treatment and analysis of meteorological and marine information. This application is composed of two main modules: the first module allows the downloading of information from the database (NOAA - WW3); the second module uses the principles of statistical mathematics for the treatment of waves and wind. The importance of this simple application is based on the free and agile access to meteorological and marine information for a coastal project. The determination of representative conditions of sea states ultimately will govern the process of design of coastal and oceanic infrastructure. The analysis of historical time series of local waves and winds allows the evaluation of average regimes or operational design, the ultimate limit states or extreme design, and the storms or design by persistence. In spite that the former analysis is a common task for coastal engineers, the codes generated are seldom shared for public use. In summary, for operational purposes is useful to have a freeware that can assist in the data processing for decision making and forcing of the mathematical models that are part of the common practice of coastal, oceanic and offshore engineering. This application has been tested in the Caribbean area of Colombia where meteorological and marine information are scarce.

In the context of climate change in West Africa characterized by a reduction of precipitation, this study was conducted to evaluate the impact of climate change on water resources from now to the end of the 21st century in the transboundary watershed of the Sassandra River shared by Guinea and Côte d’Ivoire. Historical and future climate (Representative Concentration Pathways or RCPs 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios) data were projected with the model. The Abdus Salam ICTP RegCM4 was used. The hydrological modeling of the river basin was carried out with the conceptual hydrological model, GR2M. This model is a monthly time steps model that allows the assessment of the discharge of the Sassandra River for each climate scenario according to the 2030 (2021–2040), 2050 (2041–2060), 2070 (2061–2080), and 2090 (2081–2100) horizons. The results showed a reduction of the annual discharge when compared to the baseline (1961–1980). For the RCP 4.5, the observed values went from –1.2% in 2030 to –2.3% in 2070 and rose to –2.1% in 2090. Concerning the RCP 8.5, we saw a variation from –4.2% to –7.9% in the 2030 and 2090 horizons, respectively. With the general decrease of rainfall in West Africa, it is appropriate to assess the impact on water resources on the largest rivers (Niger, Gambia, and Senegal) that irrigate the Sahelo-Saharian zone.

Evaluation of agronomic practices, genetic diversity and population structure of Moringa oleifera (Lam.) is crucial to its sustainable utilization to ensure food and nutritional security. Four agronomic practices of field preparation and soil analysis, regeneration, weeding and pruning, as well as harvesting, were adopted. Genetic diversity and population structure of 20 populations were evaluated using amplified fragment length polymorphism (AFLP) primer pairs (E-ACC/M-CAC and E-ACA/M-CAG). The effects of agronomic practices on leaf quantity production were evaluated using standard procedures. The physico-chemical and morphological data were analyzed using descriptive statistics, while genetic diversity, population structure, dendrogram reconstruction, and Principal Component Analysis (PCA) were analyzed from the AFLP genetic data. Significant effects (P ≤ 0.05) of agronomic practices on the quantity of leaf production were recorded across the accessions. The two primer pairs generated a total of 80 alleles with a mean major allele frequency of 0.0250. Gene diversity and polymorphic information content (PIC) values were high with a mean of 0.98 and 0.974, respectively. The Gst value of 0.0490 indicated that 5 % of the total genetic divergence was among the population while 95 % within the population. Dendrogram reconstruction with genetic distance ranging from 0.87 to 0.96 segregated the accessions into eleven clusters while PCA generated six cluster groups. Field preparation and physico-chemical soil properties, regeneration, weeding and pruning, and stand development, as well as harvesting, influenced the leaf yield and genetic diversity observed in this study. The genetic data revealed that some accessions were clustered along eco-geographical lines while others grouped disparately. Identified potential parent genotypes with valuable and desirable genetic traits can be exploited for commercial, breeding and conservation purposes to ensure sustainable utilization of the species in Nigeria.

Ecosystem services (ES) are increasingly recognized as a means to adapt to the ongoing impact of climate change and associated impacts. However, these ES itself are facing adverse impact of climate change especially in developing countries where most of the people are dependent on these services for their livelihood. Very little is known about the relationship between the climate change and ES. Here we assess the impact of climate change on ecosystem services in ES rich landscape of Panchase Mountain Ecological Region of western Nepal. The study area was divided into three ecoregions from lowland through midland to the upland region. Focus group discussion, and key informant interview were used to elicit the required data for the study, which was further supported by transect walk, field observation and secondary source of information. Major impacts of climate change were observed are, reduced availability of water, reduced food production, forest ecosystem, shifting species composition in forest ecosystem, farmland abandonment, and their associated ecosystem services. We recommend to initiate the management actions to help ES adapt to climate change, and which in return could support the ecosystem itself and people dependent on the ES in adaptation to climate change by providing various goods and services.

With the rapid development of artificial intelligence, machine learning is gradually becoming popular in predictions in all walks of life. In meteorology, It is gradually competing with traditional climate predictions dominated by physical models. This survey aims to consolidate the current understanding of Machine Learning (ML) applications in weather and climate prediction—a field of growing importance across multiple sectors including agriculture and disaster management. Building upon an exhaustive review of more than 20 methods highlighted in existing literature, this survey pinpointed eight techniques that show particular promise for improving the accuracy of both short-term weather and medium-to-long-term climate forecasts. According to the survey, while ML demonstrates significant capabilities in short-term weather prediction, its application in medium-to-long-term climate forecasting remains limited, constrained by factors such as intricate climate variables and data limitations. Current literature tends to focus narrowly on either short-term weather or medium-to-long-term climate forecasting, often neglecting the relationship between the two, as well as general neglect of modelling structure and recent advances. By providing an integrated analysis of models spanning different time scales, this survey aims to bridge these gaps, thereby serving as a meaningful guide for future interdisciplinary research in this rapidly evolving field.

Farming systems prevalent in sub-Saharan Africa are exposed and vulnerable to climate change due to their high dependence on rainfall. However, most studies have only estimated the impacts of climate change on agricultural productivity at a regional or national level. We add to this literature by focussing on the sub-national impacts. This study uses 30 years (1981–2011) of yield and weather data in Zambia and applies the Just and Pope model to determine how rainfall and temperature affect yield and yield variability of maize and beans at the national and subnational levels. Results show a negative impact of temperature rise on yield and a positive impact of rainfall rise on yield, above the current mean levels. These results differ by agro-ecological region. Worst-case-scenario predicted impacts using HadGEM-ES2 global circulation model show that major yield decreases (25% for maize and 34% for beans) by 2050 will be in region II and will be driven mainly by temperature increase offsetting the positive gains from rainfall increase. The model mainly under-predicts yield for maize and overpredicts yield for beans. These findings call for agro-ecological region-specific adaptation strategies and well-planned policy interventions to make agriculture more resilient to climate change.

The Siret River crosses NE Romania from the north to the south and it discharges into the Danube, near the city of Galati. During the period, 17^th June - 10^th July 2010, significant amounts of precipitations in the mountainous basin of Siret were recorded. The floods comprised two periods with four bimodal cycles and they were counted among the strongest on the Romanian territory. The exceptional floods occurred in the rivers of Siret, Suceava, Moldova, Bistrita, Trotus and so on. The most important compound flood wave was determined by the precipitations which fell within the period, 29^th June to 1^st July 2010, when significant amounts of rain were recorded, sometimes, exceeding 80 mm. The high discharges on the Bistrita River – downstream from the Bicaz Reservoir – were controlled by complex hydro technical works. The maximum discharge for the year 2010 summer floods was recorded at Dragesti hydrometric station: 2,884 m³/s (historic discharge) compared to the preceding historic discharge of the year 2008 (2,850 m³/s). The effects of floods were strongest in the counties of Suceava, Neamt, and Bacau. The floods on the main course of the Siret River were analyzed in correlation with the tributaries within the mountainous sector.

Soybean yields are often indicated as an interesting case of climate change mitigation due to the beneficial effects of CO₂ fertilization. In this paper we econometrically study this effect using a time series model of yields in a multivariate framework for a main producer and exporter of this commodity, Argentina. We have to deal with the upward behavior of soybean yields trying to identify which variables are the long-run determinants responsible of its observed trend. With this aim we adopt a partial system approach to estimate subsets of long-run relationships due to climate, technological and economic factors. Using an automatic selection algorithm we evaluate encompassing of the different obtained equilibrium correction models. We found that only technological innovations due to new crop practices and the use of modified seeds explain soybean yield in the long run. Regarding short run determinants we found positive effects associated with the use of standard fertilizers and also from changes in atmospheric CO₂ concentration which would suggest a mitigation effect from global warming. However, we also found negative climate effects from periods of droughts associated with La Niña episodes, high temperatures and extreme rainfall events during the growing season of the plant.

This paper performs non-parametric Mann Kendall (MK) trend analysis of historical hydroclimatic data (1961-2016), an ensemble climate model validation and a computation of 16 Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI) temperature and rainfall extremes indices. The climate indices are evaluated using MK test and annual trend analysis for two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP4.5 & RCP8.5) future scenarios from 2020 to 2045 over Mono River Basin (MRB) in Togo. The annual and seasonal trend analyses are assessed on historical potential evapotranspiration, mean temperature, rainfall and discharge data. Results show positive and negative trends of hydroclimatic data over MRB from1961 to 2016. Mean temperatures increase significantly in most of the stations while a negative non-significant trend is noticed for rainfall. Meanwhile, the discharge presents a significant seasonal and annual trend for three gauge stations (Corrokope, Nangbéto and Athiémé). Validation of the ensemble climate models reveals that the model under-estimates observations at Sokode, Atkakpamé and Tabligbo stations, however linear regression and spatial correlation coefficients are higher than 0.6. Moreover, the percentage of bias between climate model and observations are less than 15% at most of the stations. Finally, the computation of extreme climatic indices under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios shows a significant annual trend of some extreme climatic indices of rainfall and temperature at selected stations between 2020 and 2045 in the MRB. Therefore, relevant governmental politics are needed to elaborate strategies and measures to cope with projected climate changes impacts in the country.

New energy vehicles (NEVs) have been proposed as a promising technology to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. China is one of the leading countries in the development of NEVs, and a wide range of companies, including large and smaller businesses, are involved in the Chinese NEV market. Given that the NEV market involves the creation of nascent technologies, there are significant barriers to the development of NEV companies in the business growth stage. This is particularly significant in the case of small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). This study surveyed 100 NEV SMEs in China using a structured questionnaire to determine the most significant barriers to the growth of their businesses. Calculating the relative importance index (RII) from the collected questionnaire responses revealed that the most significant barrier at the growth stage is the lack of skilled scientists in China. The most important category of barriers is legal and institutional barriers, which suggests that government intervention in business activities, taxes, and unclear regulations are viewed by entrepreneurs as a serous hindrance to further development in the NEV industry.

Land surface albedo determines the splitting of downwelling solar radiation into components which are either reflected back to the atmosphere or absorbed by the surface. Land surface albedo is an important variable for the climate community and therefore was defined by the Global Climate Observing System (GCOS) as an Essential Climate Variable (ECV). Within the scope of the Satellite Application Facility for Land Surface Analysis (LSA SAF) of EUMETSAT, a near-real time (NRT) daily albedo product was developed in the last decade from observations provided by the SEVIRI instrument on board the geostationary satellites of the Meteosat Second Generation (MSG) series. In this study we present a new collection of albedo satellite products based on the same satellite data. The MSG Ten-day ALbedo (MTAL) product incorporates MSG observations over 31 days with a frequency of NRT production of 10 days. The MTAL collection is more dedicated to climate analysis studies compared to the daily albedo that was initially designed for the weather prediction community. For this reason, a homogeneous reprocessing of MTAL was done in 2018 to generate a Climate Data Record (CDR). The resulting product is called MTAL-R and has been made available to the community in addition to the NRT version of the MTAL product which has been available for several years. The retrieval algorithm behind the MTAL products comprises three distinct modules: one for atmospheric correction, one for daily inversion of a semi-empirical model of the bidirectional reflectance distribution function, and one for monthly composition that also determines surface albedo values. In this study the MTAL-R CDR is compared to ground surface measurements and concomitant albedo products collected by sensors on-board polar-orbiting satellites (SPOT-VGT and MODIS). We show that MTAL-R meets the quality requirements if MODIS or SPOT-VGT are considered as reference. This work leads to 14 years of production of geostationary land surface albedo products with a guaranteed continuity in the LSA SAF for the future years with the forthcoming third generation of European geostationary satellites.

The science‐policy interface in climate change adaptation became better managed over the past decades. However, the scientists and other knowledge producers, as well as policy makers still need to take bolder steps to more effectively engage with others to apply science and shape up policies. This paper aims to provide practical recommendations, intended to promote conversations between science and policy sectors to address climate change issues. Here, I used two different approaches to synthesize experiences and identify recommendations: a literature review and a case study. The paper stress main findings: (1) The linear communication model is still commonly involved in the science - policy dialogue and proved to be useful to increase the relevance of science and data products to decision makers. (2) When a gap between knowledge producer and knowledge user or decision maker exists, the need for a third party to specialize in bridging the gap become essential. (3) Indigenous people and knowledge must be involved in adaptation policy making based on legitimation local and traditional knowledge, designing the consultation process to broadly engage local and indigenous people, facilitating meaningful dialogues between traditional knowledge and science, and developing initiatives to strengthen skills and capacity of indigenous communities.

The paper presents the open source tool climdex-kit which includes utilities to compute, analyze and visualize climate indices based on the input data, target domain and temporal extent defined by the user. It is intended to support researchers as well as practitioners and decision makers to derive, handle and interpret meaningful information for climate change studies and sectoral applications. It currently includes the computation of 30 indices based on temperature and precipitation, describing both mean and extreme climate conditions, and it is designed to work with climate model projections. The tool is written in Python and integrates utilities from the well-established Climate Data Operators (CDO) and NetCDF Operators (NCO) libraries. The specific utilities for selecting, aggregating and visualizing data are thought to help users to produce tailored results improving understanding and communication of future climate change. In order to show the functionalities of the package as well as its potential integration in regional climate services, climdex-kit was applied to an ensemble of downscaled climate model projections up to 2100 for the region Trentino – South Tyrol (north-eastern Italian Alps). The projections for a selection of indices accounting for extreme temperature and precipitation conditions were derived and different visualization choices discussed. The package climdex-kit is developed in a way that allows users to implement additional routines for calculating other indices as well as for easily adapting the routines to handle with different data types and spatio-temporal targets defined by the specific application. Effective climate services can in fact be developed only if flexible tools and customizable climate information are integrated with a clear understanding of data features and limitations.

African locust bean (Parkia biglobosa (Jacq.) is a multi-purpose economic tree with genetic potentials in sub-Saharan Africa. Its cultivation and production is declining with increased aging and genetically threatened throughout its natural ranges. Research efforts are needed to change the present scenario to sustainable cultivation and utilization, hence this present study. This study was aimed at evaluating genetic diversity and geographical spread relationships of twenty landraces collected from different ecological zones of Nigeria using simple sequence repeat (SSR) markers. Ten SSR markers were screened and five primers (PbL02, PbL03, PbL04, PbL05 and PbL09) were selected based on clear amplification products and reproducible scorable bands. The SSR primers detected a total of 55 alleles ranged from 10 to 14 alleles with a mean of 11. The percentage polymorphisms were high and ranged from 68.75 % in PbL04 to 84.21 % in PbL05 with a mean of 74.16 %. The polymorphic information content (PIC) was in the range of 0.31 in PbL02 to 0.37 in PbL09. The genetic diversity and heterozygosity values ranged from 0.39 to 0.50 and 0.00 to 0.68 while the average genetic distance for all pair wise comparisons was 0.31.The first five Principal Component (PC) accounted for 70.20 % of the total variation out of which PC1 (31.50%) and PC2 (19.20%) extracted 49.70% molecular similarity. The dendrogram resulted in separation of the 19 landraces into three major clusters based on unweighted pair group method with arithmetic average. Cluster I comprised of five landraces: ABNo130 and BENo023; OYNo11, KANo125 and NiNo262 while cluster II had only one (BANo116). Cluster III was diverse comprising 13 landraces: ZANo188, KNNo162, KENo220, GMNo076 and EbNo260, ADNo64, EdNo164, KANo137, KENo217, KwNo270, NiNo241, OsNo206 and PLNo120. The homogeneity of alleles among the studied landraces suggested suspicion of loss of genetic intra-specific variation among the landraces of P. biglobosa which calls for concerted efforts toward better cultivation, conservation, management, utilization and genetic improvement of the species in Nigeria.

Dengue hemorrhagic fever is an arboviral infectious disease that has occurred frequently as an extraordinary event due to its fast spread and lethal potential in Indonesia. The vector Aedes aegypti is sensitive to climate variability. This study determines the relationship between climate variability and dengue hemorrhagic fever in Surabaya, East Java, Indonesia from 2009 to 2017. This study used the monthly dengue hemorrhagic fever incidence obtained from the Surabaya Health Office and the monthly climate variability parameters (average temperature, rainfall, humidity) obtained from the Indonesian Agency for Meteorology, Climatology and Geophysics and website www.worldweatheronline.com. Data analysis was done using One-Sample Kolmogorov Smirnov Test and Spearman non-parametric correlation test. The results showed a correlation between all three climate variability parameters with dengue hemorrhagic fever incidence (average temperature p<0.05, r=-0.603; rainfall p<0.05, r=0.407; humidity p<0.05, r=0.7). Average temperature is negatively correlated to dengue hemorrhagic fever incidence, while rainfall and humidity are positively correlated to dengue hemorrhagic fever incidence. This study shows preliminary evidence on the correlation of climate variability and dengue hemorrhagic fever in Surabaya, East Java, Indonesia.

In the recent century, the tourism industry and within it the tourism economy are one of the most important and fundamental sectors of engaged business. E-tourism can be used as a dynamic tool in up to date areas of informative information and tourism marketing will be considered as a suitable field for the tourism industry. The aim of this study was to investigate the relationship between climate change and the amount of revenues from the tourism industry relying on a tool called e-tourism, and informing and providing services through this way so that Iran can achieve a greater share of export of a single-product oil economy combined with economic growth and sustainable development goals. The method of this research is descriptive-analytical.

Crop plants should be resilient to climatic factors in order to feed ever-increasing populations. Plants have developed stress-responsive mechanisms by changing their metabolic pathways and switching the stress-responsive genes. The discovery of plant transcriptional factors (TFs) as key regulators of different biotic and abiotic stresses have opened up new horizons for plant scientists. TFs perceive the signal and switch certain stress-responsive genes on and off by binding to different cis-regulatory elements. The above 50 species of plant TFs have been reported in nature. DREB, bZIP, MYB, NAC, Zinc-finger, HSF, Dof, WRKY, and NF-Y are important with respect to biotic and abiotic stresses whereas the role of many TFs is yet to explore. In this review, we summarize the role of different stress-responsive TFs with respect to biotic and abiotic stresses. Further, challenges and future opportunities linked with TFs for developing climate-resilient crops are also elaborated.

Climate change has had a significant impact on many ecosystems worldwide, prompting native population species to adapt to the current weather patterns eventually. Pre-existing genetic variation in populations explains part of this adaptation. Still, recent studies have shown that new stable phenotypes can be generated through epigenetic modifications in just a few generations, thereby contributing to the stability and survival of plants in their natural habitat as they eventually adjust to the surrounding impacts. The state of chromatin inside plant cells varies, allowing cells to fine-tune their transcriptional profiles to better adapt to stimuli from the external environment. Within a cell, chromatin state changes such as post-transcriptional histone modifications and variations, DNA methylation, and non-coding RNA activity are all examples of chromatin state alterations that may epigenetically dictate certain transcriptional outputs. Recent advances in the field of ‘Omics’ in major crops has made it easier to identify epigenetic changes and their impact on plant responses to environmental stresses. These epigenetic mechanisms thus play an important role in improving crop adaptation and resilience to changing environments. This variation that has emerged can thus be exploited in crop breeding, ultimately leading to the generation of stable climate-resilient genotypes.

As climate is not only a valuable tourism resource but also a factor influencing travel experience, estimating climate change can provide implications to sustainable development of the tourism industry. This study develops Climate Volatility Index (CVI) using GARCH model and estimates the relationship between CVI and Japanese tourism demand for Korea using a tourism demand model, based on data from January 2000 to December 2013. Time lag is applied based on a decision making process regarding travel destinations. The result shows that an increase in volatility of climate change leads to a decrease in tourism demand.

Dendroclimatology has gained relevance during the XXI century. We analyze the state of-the-art of dendroclimatology in Latin America during the past 28 years (1990 to 2019), identifying the current state and recent advances in the application of dendroclimatology in this region. We carried out a systematic review in ScienceDirect, Web of Science, and Scopus databases using Boolean operators to logically connect the keywords “dendrochronology,” “dendroclimatology,” “trend,” “climatic variability,” and “climatic variability trend”, for each country. Dendroclimatological research conducted in the region focused on climatic reconstruction and the evaluation of new tree species with dendrochronological potential, which increase in 2010, then there was a gap between 1995 and 1996, later increase to present. Dendroclimatological studies in Latin America have been mainly developed in temperate climate zones (82.4 %) followed by tropical or subtropical areas (17.6 %). Dendroclimatological research in Latin America has provided advances in the study of climate variability by defining response functions of tree rings to climate. The generated information allows for a better understanding of the spatial and temporal dynamics of climatic variability and about its effects on ecosystems and society. We also call for increased dendroclimatological research based on subtropical and tropical forests limited studied until today.

Fracking in the UK has yet to reach full industrial development but it is still subject to significant opposition. This study uses Beck’s Risk Society theory and anti-politics to examine the views voiced by opponents to fracking in Yorkshire, England. A qualitative approach was used; local newspaper reports were evaluated alongside semi-structured interviews with protesters to provide a thematic analysis. Although there are signs of post-materialist concerns with the environment these issues did not dominate the discussion. Scientists were not held responsible for the risks involved in fracking. Instead economic greediness of politicians and austerity measures were perceived as putting the environment and people’s health at risk. Interviewees thought fossil fuel energy production was economically advantaged over more sustainable energy and jobs in the low carbon economy. Protesters’ trust in politicians had been eroded but faith in democracy remained. It is suggested a citizen-led deliberative approach to all the concerns raised, not simply those relating to scientific risk, might achieve some level of resolution over fracking in the UK.

In the last few decades, a lot has been written on the use of sustainable agriculture to improve ecosystem services for resilience to climate change. However, no tangible and systematic evidence exists on how this would participate in alleviating impacts on vulnerable rural communities. This paper provides a narrative systematic review (SR) integrated with a bibliometric analysis and a concept network analysis to understand how, in a changing climate, sustainable agriculture builds the resilience of agro-systems. The search was set from the date of the first relevant article until the end of 2018. Results generated have demonstrated that: a. Only single practices and methods have been studied to assess impacts on single ecosystem services. b. Soil quality and health are considered a key indicator of sustainable agriculture. c. Albeit the assessed practices and methods have shown to improve the biodiversity of agro-systems, which makes them more resilient to extreme climate events, we are still far from reaching interdisciplinary and multi-dimensional agriculture which integrates all management aspects and generates a full range of ecosystem services. In conclusion, the study addressed the following recommendations for the scientific community and for decision-makers to orient future research strategies and efforts: a. Integration of all agro-systems services into sustainable management using an ecosystem-based approach on a life-cycle basis using Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) method; b. Improving the scientific understanding of traditional knowledge for higher synergies and for further integration; c. Unification of assessment methods and indicators for the quantification of impacts; d. Creation of a platform to share, monitor, screen, and approve assessments and evaluations of sustainable agriculture by region.

Advances in remote sensing have led to use of satellite-derived rainfall products to complement the sparse rain gauge data. Although globally derived and some regional bias corrected, these products often show large discrepancies with ground measurements attributed to local and external factors that require systematic consideration. Decreasing rain gauge network however inhibits continuous validation of these products. We propose to deal with this problem by the use of Bayesian approach to merge the existing historical rain gauge information to create a consistent satellite rainfall data that can be used for climate studies. Monthly Bayesian bias correction is applied to the Climate Hazards Group Infrared Precipitation with Stations (CHIRPS v2) data to reduce systematic errors using a corresponding gridded (0.05°) rain gauge data over East Africa for a period of 33 (1981–2013) years of which 22 years are utilized to derive error fields which are then applied to an independent CHIRPS data for 11 years for validation. The bias correction is spatially and temporally assessed during the rainfall wet months of March-May (MAM), June-August (JJA) and October–December (OND) in East Africa. Results show significant reduction of systematic errors at both monthly and yearly scales and harmonization of their cumulative distributions. Monthly statistics showed a reduction of RMSD (29–56)% and MAE (28–60)% and an increase of correlations (2–32) %, while yearly ones showed reductions of RMSD (9-23)%, and MAE (7–27)% and increase of correlations (4–77)% for MAM months, reduction of RMSD (15–35)% and MAE (16–41)% and increase in correlations (5–16)% for JJA months, and reduction of RMSD (3–35)% and MAE (9–32)% and increase of correlations (3–65)% for OND months. Systematic errors of corrected data were influenced by local processes especially over Lake Victoria and high elevated areas. Large-scale circulations induced errors were mainly during JJA and OND rainfall seasons and were reduced by the separation of anomalous years during training. The proposed approach is recommended for generating long-term data for climate studies where consistencies of errors can be assumed.

Climate variation and change are an unavoidable phenomenon faced by the natural habitat of this planet. For getting potential yield from vegetable crops under the changing climate conditions, the practical strategies at field level can serve as a guideline for the farmers. Moreover, there are several strategies available for mitigating the harmful effects of climate change. In this manuscript, efforts have been made for reviewing the mitigating strategies against the impact of climate change in vegetable crops via conventional approaches. Considering the situation, the information reviewed revealed that significant result of conventional approaches with climate-smart adoptions strategies has a direct bearing on vegetable production for the increasing population in frenziedly changing climate scenario.

The purpose of this article is to analyze urban form through the mapping of morphological indices, namely impervious surface fraction, building density, verticality, height/width ratio, roughness length, and porosity, to support urban planning in the city of João Pessoa, PB, in northeastern Brazil. The application of this study identifies and calculates such significant indices for the city's urban space from a Geographic Information System (GIS) model. The spatial indices play notable roles in climate at different scales, developing guidelines to maximize environmental quality, promote improvements to thermal comfort, minimize the urban heat island in the city of João Pessoa, and provide relevant data (considering microclimate aspects), guiding decisions related to the planning process.

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic is the defining global health and socioeconomic crisis of our time and represents the greatest challenge faced by the world since the end of the Second World War. The academic literature indicates that climatic features, specifically the temperature and absolute humidity, are very important factors affecting infectious pulmonary disease epidemics (e.g., SARS, MERS); however, the influence of climatic parameters on COVID-19 remains extremely controversial. The goal of this study is to quantify the existing relationship between several daily climate parameters (temperature, relative humidity, accumulated precipitation, solar radiation, wind direction and intensity, and evaporation), local morphological parameters, and new daily positive swabs for COVID-19, which represents the only parameter that can be statistically used to quantify the pandemic. The daily deaths parameter was not considered because it is not reliable due to frequent administrative errors. Daily data on meteorological conditions and new cases of COVID-19 were collected for the Lombardy area from March 1, 2020, to April 20, 2020. This region in Italy exhibited the largest number of official deaths in the world per million inhabitants, with a value of approximately 1700 per million on june 30, 2020. Moreover, the apparent lethality was approximately 17% in this area, mainly due to the considerable housing density and the extensive presence of industrial and craft areas. The Mann-Kendall test and multivariate statistical analysis showed that none of the considered climatic variables exhibited statistically significant relationships with the epidemiological evolution of COVID-19, at least in the spring months in temperate subcontinental climate areas, with the exception of solar radiation, which was directly related and showed an otherwise low explained variability of approximately 20%. Furthermore, the average temperatures of two highly representative meteorological stations of Molise and Lucania, the most weakly affected by the pandemic. The temperatures at these stations were approximately 1.5°C lower than that in the cities in Lombardy of Bergamo and Brescia, again confirming that a significant relationship between the increase in temperature and decrease in virology from COVID-19 was not evident, at least in the Italian peninsula.

Climate change is a large and challenging collective action problem facing the world today. This seminar review impacts of climate change on r yield of major cereal crops. Literatures have indicated that climate change would likely have positive impact in the highland agro-ecology in the short run. However, in the long run climate change will have negative impact in all agro-ecology. Negative impacts will be high in low land agro-ecology. Failure to prepare for climate variability can seriously affect the livelihood of smallholder farmers. Ethiopia by enacting Climate-Resilient Green Economy strategy and National Adaptation Plan aims to minimize the impacts of CC. Despite the existing adaptation and mitigation strategies negative impacts of climate change on agriculture especially on cereal crop production is continued. Thus, both private and public investment on adaptation strategies should be expanded more. Studies regarding the impacts of climate change on labour productivity, labour market, its distributional (which section society mostly by climate change?) and why the existing adaptation strategies are not successful? are not well studied, as most literature are focused on impact of climate change on yield, its adaptation and mitigation strategies.

This study investigates proximate drivers of cropland and forest degradation in Kloto district (Togo, West Africa) as, way of, exploring integrated sustainable landscape approaches in respect to socio-economic and environmental needs and requirements. Net change analysis of major cash and food crops based on three time steps Landsat data (1985–2002, 2002–2017 and 1985–2017) and quantitative analysis from participatory survey data with farmers and landowners are used. Study underlines poor agricultural systems and cassava farming as major impediments to alarming forest losses between 1985–2017. Significant net loss in forests cover by 23.6% and surface areas under cultivation of cocoa agroforestry and maize by 12.99 and 10.1% from 1985 to 2017, due to, intensive cassava cropping (38.78%) and settlement expansions (7.84%). Meanwhile, loss in forest cover between 2017 and 2002 was marginal (8.36%) compared to the period 1985–2002 for which the loss was considerable (15.24%). Based on participatory surveys, majority of agricultural lands are threatened by erosion or physical deterioration (67.5%), land degradation or salt deposits and loss of micro/macro fauna and flora at 56.7%, declining in soil fertility (32.5%), soil water holding capacity (11.7%) and changes in soil texture (3.3%). Majority of farmers adhere to the adoption of the proposed climate smart practices with emphasis on cost effective drip irrigation systems (45.83%), soil mulching (35%) and adoption of drought resilient varieties (29.17%) to anticipate drought spells adverse. The study concludes that low adoption of improved soil conservation, integrated water management and harvesting systems and low productive and adaptive cultivars entail extreme degradation of croplands and crops productivity decline. Therefore, farmers are forced to clear more forests in search of stable and healthy soils for production and extraction of forest products to meet their food demands and improve their livelihoods conditions. Capacity building on integrated pathways of soil and land management practices are therefore needed to ensure sustainable and viable socio-ecological systems at local scale.

Natural disasters ravage the world's cities, valleys, and shores on a monthly basis. Having precise and efficient mechanisms for assessing infrastructure damage is essential to channel resources and minimize the loss of life. Using a dataset that includes labeled pre- and post- disaster satellite imagery, we train multiple convolutional neural networks to assess building damage on a per-building basis. In order to investigate how to best classify building damage, we present a highly interpretable deep-learning methodology that seeks to explicitly convey the most useful information required to train an accurate classification model. We also delve into which loss functions best optimize these models. Our findings include that ordinal-cross entropy loss is the most optimal loss function to use and that including the type of disaster that caused the damage in combination with a pre- and post-disaster image best predicts the level of damage caused. Our research seeks to computationally contribute to aiding in this ongoing and growing humanitarian crisis, heightened by climate change.

Linking climate action with sustainable development goals (SDGs) might incentivize social and political support to forest conservation. However, further examination of the conceptual entry points for linking efforts for reducing forest-based emissions with those for delivering SDGs is required. This review paper aims to contribute to fulfilling this research need. It provides insights into the links between conserving forests for climate change mitigation and peacebuilding. Specifically, the paper examines opportunities to harness climate finance for conserving forests and achieving long-lasting peace. It does so via a literature review and the examination of the Orinoquia region of Colombia. Findings from the literature review suggest that harnessing climate finance for conserving forests and peacebuilding is, in theory, viable if activities are designed in accordance with social, institutional, and economic factors. Meanwhile, the Orinoquia region provides evidence that these two seemingly intractable problems are proposed to be solved together. At a time when efforts for reducing forest-based emissions are being designed and targeted at (post-) conflict areas in Colombia and elsewhere, the paper’s findings might demonstrate to government agencies — both environmental and non-environmental — the compatibility of programs aimed at reducing forest-based emissions with efforts relating to peacebuilding and sustainable food.

The present paper reviews evidence for ecological evolution of Montiaceae. Montiaceae (Portulacineae) comprise a family of ca. 275 species and ca. 25 subspecific taxa of flowering plants distributed mainly in extreme western America, with additional endemism elsewhere, including other continents and islands. They have diversified repeatedly across steep ecological gradients. Based on narrative analysis, I argue that phylogenetic transitions from annual to perennial life history have been more frequent than suggested by computational phylogenetic reconstructions. I suggest that a reported phylogenetic correlation between the evolution of life history and temperature niche is coincidental and not causal. I demonstrate how statistical phylogenetic comparative analysis (PhCA) missed evidence for marked moisture niche diversification among Montiaceae. I discount PhCA evidence for the relation between Montiaceae genome duplication and ecological diversification. Based on the present analysis of Montiaceae evolution, I criticize the premise of the prevalent statistical approach to PhCA, which tests Darwinian deterministic hypotheses against stochastic evolutionary null models. I discuss theoretical/empirical evidence that evolution is neither stochastic, nor Darwinistically-determined, but idiosyncratic. Idiosyncraticity describes the outcome of a stochastically perturbed nonlinear chaos-like process. The Principle of Evolutionary Idiosyncraticity (PEI) is based on the evolutionary theory of Natural Drift, which maintains that determinism in evolution is a property of the organism and not, as maintained by the theory of Natural Selection, its traits or its milieu. This determinism is characteristic of chaotic functions, which are absolutely determinate, generate self-similarity, but remain absolutely unpredictable. PEI explains precisely observations that evolution proceeds not linearly, but chaotically, producing both quasi-linear fractal-like patterns and non-linear jumps. PEI has ramifications for all areas of macroevolutionary research. In particular, it demonstrates both the fallacy and futility of the statistical PhCA approach that interprets evolutionary causes in terms of evolutionary correlations. However, statistical methods of PhCA can be applied heuristically and fruitfully to reveal idiosyncraticity and discover evolutionary novelty. This, in turn, is demonstrated by the emergence of statistical anomalies in evolutionary analyses of Montiaceae.

Aflatoxins (AFs) contamination of cereals is considered one of the greatest food safety concerns worldwide. Occurrence of AFs in maize, wheat, rice and sorghum is highly prevalent with each commodity accounting for more than 10% of world’s AF exposure. Their occurrence as food contaminants is also associated with huge economic losses. AFs are highly stable compounds that cannot be eliminated by regular processing of grains. Hence, prevention of AFs in food and feed is now considered more important than the subsequent interventions to mitigate the deleterious health effects of AFs in human and animals. However, the development of an effective preventive strategy hinges on a clear understanding of the underlying factors influencing AFs production. Therefore, the present review aims to highlight the most significant factors influencing AFs contamination of cereals at pre-and post-harvest stages. This is crucial for effective monitoring of critical control points and optimisation of preventive strategies in food and feed supply chains. Several intrinsic and extrinsic factors have been reported of which nutritional composition, environmental factors (temperature, water activity and relative humidity) and climate change have been identified as primary factors, while pH of the substrate, carbon dioxide (CO2) levels in the gaseous environment, and agronomic and socioeconomic status are the main secondary factors promoting AFs biosynthesis in cereals. Additionally, an overview of global occurrence of AFs in cereals, with their health impacts and various preventive measures have also been highlighted.

The Anthropocene has emerged as the dominant conceptualization of the current geological epoch and, more significantly, of Humanity’s relation to nature. By its proponents the Anthropocene is espoused as a “solution formulation,” an analytical tool which clarifies Humanity’s multifarious impacts on nature and nature’s subsequent crises; and further as a conceptual apparatus from which to launch mitigation and adaption strategies, promising deliverance from or at least engagement with ecological crises. However, the Anthropocene is not a neutral concept, merely illuminating transition within ecological conditions and connections between human activities and nature; rather, it is a particular prism from which to understand humanity’s relation to nature. And, as the Anthropocene becomes ascendant both analytically and politically, it becomes vital to question its imaginary, how it constructs nature and Humanity, how it influences and constrains responses to ecological crises, and what the long-term implications of operating within this imaginary are. I argue that the Anthropocene as a political/analytical prism rests upon flawed conceptions of nature, history, and humanity, rending it an impotent construct from which to respond to ecological crises; offering only partial and presumptive “solutions” in the form of intensified governmental regulation and the application of manifold technological “fixes” through the geoengineering of Earth’s systems, in an attempt to address isolated aspects of ecological destruction.

Frequent employee resistance to innovation is one of the main barriers of change failure in a health care organization and one of the negative stimuli of employment relationships. Identifying the reasons of resistance is a topical issue for every organization, as the speed of change can affect their competitiveness. Consequently, it is helpful not only to know the causes of potential resistance but also to be ready to control any implicit opposition. The organizational climate and the attitude of the staff play an important role in understanding and accepting innovation. Purpose of the study is to develop a model, which would facilitate the choice of an appropriate strategy necessary to enable the health care organization to eliminate or at least to reduce resistance to often essential innovative changes. The article analyses the root causes of resistance and identifies strategies that help to mitigate or eliminate staff resistance for innovation. Use of suggested model can make easier reducing staff resistance to change processes and thus speed up the implementation of innovations. This methodology can be used to eliminate the reasons for staff resistance to change in health care institutions of different countries, but it was tested in Lithuania and achieved good enough results.

In this paper we illustrate a new, simple and complementary ground-based methodology to retrieve the vertically resolved atmospheric precipitation intensity through a synergy between measurements from the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Micropulse Lidar network (MPLNET), an analytical model solution and ground-based disdrometer measurements. The presented results are obtained at two mid-latitude MPLNET permanent observational sites, located respectively at NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, USA, and at the Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya, Barcelona, Spain. The methodology is suitable to be applied to existing and/or future lidar/ceilometer networks with the main objective of either providing near-real time (3h latency) rainfall intensity measurements and/or to validate satellite missions, especially for critical light precipitation (<3 mm hr⁻¹).

In Nigeria, desertification has become one of the most pronounced ecological disasters, with the impacts mostly affecting eleven frontline States. This has been attributed to a range of both nat-ural and man-made factors. This study applied a remote sensing-based change detection and indicator analysis to explore land use/land cover changes and detect major conversions from ecologically active land covers to sand dunes. Results indicate that areas covered by sand dunes (a major indicator of desertification) have doubled over the 25 years under consideration (1990 to 2015). Although about 0.71 km2 of dunes have been converted to vegetation, indicative of the success of various international, national, local, and individual afforestation efforts, conversely about 10.1 km2 of vegetation were converted to sand dunes, implying around 14 times more de-forestation compared to afforestation. Juxtaposing the progression of sand dune with climate records of the study area and examining the relationship between indicators of climate change and desertification suggested a mismatch between both processes as increasing rainfall and lower temperatures observed in 1994, 2005, 2012, and 2014 did not translated into positive feedbacks for desertification in the study area. On average, our results reveal that sand dune is progressing at a mean annual rate of about 15.2 km2 in the study area. Based on this study’s land cover change, trend and conversion assessment, visual reconciliation of climate records with land cover data, statistical analysis, observations from ground-truthing, as well as previous literature, it can be inferred that desertification in Nigeria is less a function of climate change, but more a product of human activities driven by poverty, population growth and failed government policies. Further projections by this study also reveal a high probability of more farmlands being converted to sand dunes by the year 2030 and 2045 if current practices prevail.

Africa was the only continent not to achieve the 2015 Millennium Development Goal of 50% poverty reduction. This paper asks whether Africa will fare better in meeting Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) addressing poverty and hunger by 2030. To answer this question we examine literature, including our field research published over the last thirteen years. We find that ‘sustainable development’ is a failed concept immersed in the contemporary global economic system that favors growth over ecosystem stability and patriarchal systems of governance that undervalue women’s capacity for sustainability in their care-work as food providers. We examine barriers to women’s farming (climate change, gender bias, limited access to land, technology, finance) and provide examples of women’s innovative strategies for overcoming these barriers in their care practices toward family and community well-being and ecosystem health. We conclude that sustainability is only possible through transformation of thinking away from approaches that value profit over people and ecosystems and toward gender-based approaches for achieving the goals laid out in the SDGs through holistic, integrative systems of ecosystem fit.

The interest in renewable energy to replace fossil fuel is increasing as the problem caused by climate change become more severe. Small hydropower (SHP) is evaluated as a resource with high development value because of its high energy density compared to other renewable energy sources. SHP may be an attractive and sustainable power generation environmental perspective because of its potential to be found in small rivers and streams. The power generation potential could be estimated based on the discharge in the river basin. Since the river discharge depends on the climate conditions, the hydropower generation potential changes sensitively according to climate variability. Therefore, it is necessary to analyze the SHP potential in consideration of future climate change. In this study, the future prospect of SHP potential is simulated for the period of 2021 to 2100 considering the climate change in three hydropower plants of Deoksong, Hanseok, and Socheon stations, Korea. As the results, SHP potential for the near future (2021 to 2040) shows a tendency to be increased and the highest increase is 23.4% at the Deoksong SPH plant. Through the result of future prospect, we have shown that hydroelectric power generation capacity or SHP potential will be increased in the future. Therefore, we believe that it is necessary to revitalize the development of SHP in order to expand the use of renewable energy. Also, a methodology presented in this study could be used for the future prospect of the small hydropower potential.

Climate-smart agriculture (CSA) is a new and emerging concept in climate discourse to address the issues of climate change impacts in agriculture. Few researchers and organizations have concentrated on CSA policies and practices in Nepal. This study aims to review and analyze the policies and practices in relation to CSA and define local level CSA indicators in the Central and Western Nepal. This study adopted the scoping review of climate policies and practices in Nepal and also utilized the household survey information particularly focusing on climate adaptation relating to agriculture. Through the scoping review, it is recognized that the number of climate policies in Nepal has specifically prioritized agriculture and food security as an important thematic area. Among those policies, National Adaptation Programme of Action (NAPA), National Framework for Local Adaptation Plan of Action (LAPA) and National Adaptation Plan (NAP) have specific sections on CSA practices, however, these policies/plans lack specific indicators. Different categories of CSA practices are common in Nepal, but many of these practices are popular as agricultural and environmental practices prior to the CSA concept and approach. The output indicators specific to CSA practices help the communities and policymakers to measure and monitor the progress of its implementation. Additional researches are required in this field to better understand the CSA concept, approaches, and mechanisms in the Nepalese context.

The following paper describes an economical, multiple model predictive control (EMMPC) for an air conditioning system of a confectionery manufacturer in Germany. The application consists of a packaging hall for chocolate bars, in which a new local conveyor belt air conditioning system is used and thus the temperature and humidity limits in the hall can be significantly extended. The EMMPC calculates the optimum energy or cost humidity and temperature set points in the hall. For this purpose, time-discrete state space models and an economic objective function with which it is possible to react to flexible electricity prices in a cost-optimised manner are created. A possible future electricity price model for Germany with a flexible EEG levy was used as a flexible electricity price. The flexibility potential is determined by variable temperature and humidity limits in the hall, which are oriented towards the comfort field for easily working persons, and the building mass. The building mass of the created room model is used as a thermal energy store. Considering electricity price and weather forecasts as well as internal, production plan-dependent load forecasts, the model predictive controller directly controls the heating and cooling register and the humidifier of the air conditioning system.

We develop and apply a systematic literature review methodology to identify and characterize the ways in which the peer-reviewed literature depicts how climate change adaptation is occurring in Australia. We reviewed the peer-reviewed, English-language literature between January 2005 and January 2018 for examples of documented adaptation actions. Our results challenge previous assumptions that adaptation action is not happening in Australia and describes adaptation processes that are underway. For the most part, actions can be described as preliminary or groundwork, with a particular focus on documenting stakeholder perspectives on climate change and adaptation, and modelling or scenario planning in the coastal zone, agriculture and health sectors. Where concrete adaptations are reported, they are usually in the agricultural sector and are most common in the Murray-Darling Basin, Australia’s food basket. The findings of the review advance our understanding of adaptation to climate change as a process and the need to consider different stages in the process when tracking adaptation.

Scientific studies had shown that mixed forests of silver fir (Abies alba Mill.) and European beech (Fagus sylvatica L.) provide higher ecosystem services than monospecific forests. Mixed forests are known for their high resilience to climate change impacts and superior biodiversity compared to monospecific forests. In many countries, promotion of mixed forests in forest management is becoming a government policy since they can contribute to fulfill the Sustainable Development Goals set by the United Nation, respectively Goal 13 and 15. However, not much is known about public perceptions on mixed forests compared to monoculture forests. Our study on ecosystem services provided by mixed and monospecific forests in southwest Germany fill this gap. Based on a survey with 520 valid responses we analyzed people’s perception on 18 different supporting, cultural, regulating and provisioning ecosystem services measured by Likert scale. Stepwise regression analyses show relations between social profiles (gender, age, education, profession) and preferences on respondents’ perceptions. Our findings show that people perceive that mixed forests provide better cultural, regulating and supporting ecosystem services than monospecific forests of fir and beech whereas provisioning services were perceived as being equally or better provided by monospecific forests. Significant effects towards a positive perception on ecosystem services provided by mixed forests were mainly influenced by the perceived abundance of old trees, feeling of pleasantness in mixed forests, age, profession, and education. Our findings indicate that there is a high public support for the promotion of silver fir and beech mixed forests in Southwest Germany.

The present paper aims to elucidate the impact of climate change on the availability and security of water and energy in the Middle East and North Africa Region (MENA Region). The region is particularly challenged by a number of factors including a large variability of bio-geographical characteristics, extreme population growth over the last few decades and substantial societal and economical transitions as well as armed conflicts in some of the countries of the region. Anticipated changes in climate conditions will exacerbate the challenges with regard to providing sufficient amounts of water and energy to the communities in the region. Impacts of climate change will materialize as an increasing number of heat waves, primarily in urban structures and the decline in water availability as a result of enhanced droughts and a growing numbers of dry spells. The interrelationships between energy and water and their mutual dependencies are addressed by the Water-Energy-Nexus concept. With regard to the challenges addressed here, Cyprus and the Eastern Mediterranean are a particular point in case. Mitigation and adaptation strategies include enhanced efficiency of energy and water use, integrated technology assessments regarding electricity generation and the production of potable water and electricity through concentrated solar power.

Water scarcity is significantly increasing water stress in Africa and some parts of the world. This is due to human induced factors such as climate change, increase of human population that raises demand which outstrips food availability, and put great changes of land use which results in changes of hydrological mechanics and water availability as whole. The investigation was through literature review and it tries to examine the criticality of water scarcity in Africa regions, and the major factors that mastermind this menace. Also possible strategies that can be promptly used to manage water scarcity at domestic level and in agriculture are described in this paper, not with standing the fact that agriculture sectors in Africa and the rest of the world remain the utmost vulnerable enterprise to water scarcity and withdrawal on the planet earth.

Turmeric is highly tolerant to several climatic changes and can grow under high temperatures and moderate drought conditions. This herb is very much dependant on optimum rainfall, optimum heat with less chilling or freezing conditions. These conditions if are more than normal would tend to reduce the yields of the crops and also effect the productivity. To reduce such drastic yield losses certain conventional plant breeding methods were employed but were very less effective compared to plant biotechnology. To reduce these loses by stresses, extensive and effective molecular biology methods were employed which identifies the genes that are stress responsive along with certain methods like gene transfer, genetic engineering was also known to be effective. All these methods are quite helpful in mitigating the yield losses and promoting healthy growth in the plants. The maintenance of rhizome size, curcumin content, essential oils etc. is very much necessary for the turmeric crop because of its role, especially in the medical field. Therefore, the yield losses are reduced to a maximum extent so that development of smart turmeric is easy and crop designing is possible only with the advanced techniques involved in agriculture biotechnology.

Ethiopian agriculture is not only affected by precipitation declines (meteorological droughts) but also soil dryness caused by temperature increases and associated long-term hydrological changes. Meteorological drought indicators (e.g., SPI), do not fully capture the water deficits in agricultural systems (i.e., agricultural droughts). An Ethiopia-wide assessment of meteorological and agricultural drought trends was carried out to characterize century-scale (1902 – 2016) changes in droughts. SPI and SPEI calculated using two-month accumulation and the Palmer Z-index were used for assessing intra-season drought trends. SPI and SPEI at six-month accumulations and PDSI were used to define full season droughts. Detrended variance corrected Mann-Kendall test was used for trend analysis during Bega (dry), Belg (short-rainy) and Meher (long-rainy) seasons. The SPEI-2 and PDSI were most aggressive in characterizing intra-season and seasonal-drought trends. There is on average 1% - 6% annual increase in dryness with the lower estimate based on precipitation declines and the upper end accounting for seasonal soil moisture dynamics. The area between 37.5° E – 42.5° E denotes a climate hot-spot. Precipitation declines in Belg along the Ethiopia-South-Sudan/Sudan border during Belg and along Eretria-Ethiopia border during Meher have the potential to exacerbate transboundary water conflicts and further threaten the food security of the region.

The City of Pasadena is located in southern California; a region which has a Mediterranean climate and where the vast majority of rainfall occurs between October and April with the period between January and March being the most intense. A significant amount of the local water supply comes from regional rainfall, therefore any changes in precipitation patterns in the area has considerable significance. HYPOTHESIS: Local climate change has been occurring in the Pasadena area over the last 100 years resulting in changes in air temperature and rainfall. AIR TEMPERATURES: Between 1886 and 2016 the air temperature in Pasadena, California has increased significantly, from a minimum of 23.8°C in the daytime and 8.1°C at night between 1911 and 1920 to 27.2°C and 13.3°C between 2011 and 2016. The increase in nighttime temperature was uniform throughout the year, however daytime temperatures showed more seasonal variation. There was little change in the daytime temperatures May through July but more change the rest of the year. For example, the median daytime temperature for June between 1911 and 1920 was 27.9°C but was 28.7°C between 2011 and 2016, a difference of 0.8°C. In contrast, for October for the same periods the median daytime temperatures were 25.6°C and 28.9°C, a difference of 3.3°C. RAINFALL: There has been a change in local rainfall pattern over the same period. In comparing rainfall between 1883 – 1949 and 1950 – 2016, there appeared to be less rainfall in the months of October, December, and April while other months seemed to show no change in rainfall. For example, between the two periods mentioned above, the median rainfall in October was 12.4 mm and 8.9 mm respectively while for December they were 68.6 mm and 40.4 mm. There was comparatively a smaller change in the median volume of rainfall in April (18.8 mm vs. 17.5 mm). However, between 1883 and 2016 there were 13 with less than 1 mm of rain, 12 of which occurred after 1961. In the same line of logic, no measureable amount of rain occurred for 23 Octobers, 15 of those occurred after 1961. CONCLUSION: As air temperatures increased over the last 100 years in the Pasadena area, rainfall may have decreased in October, December, and April.

Species have shown their habital variations in responding to climate change, especially during the spring and summer spawning seasons. The species distribution model (SDM) is considered the most favorable tool to study the potential effects of climate change on species distribution. Therefore, we developed the ensemble SDM to predict the changes in species distribution of Portunus trituberculatus among different seasons in 2050 and 2100 under the climate scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. The results of SDM indicate that the distribution of this species will move northward and have obviouse seasonal variations. Meanwhile, the suitable habitat for the species will be significantly reduced in summer, with loses rates ranging from 45.23% (RCP4.5) to 88.26% (RCP.8.5) by 2100s. Habitat reduction will mainly occur in the East China Sea and southern part of the Yellow Sea, while there will be a small increase in the northern Bohai Sea. These findings will be important to manage the ecosystem and fishery, provide an information forecast of this species in the future, and maintain species diversity if the seawater temperature rises.

The change in both streamflow and baseflow in urban catchments has received significant attention in the latest decades as a result of their drastic variability. In this research, effects of climate variation and dynamics of land use are measured separately and in combination on streamflow and baseflow in the Little Eagle Creek (LEC) watershed (Indianapolis, Indiana). These effects are examined using land use maps, statistical tests, and hydrological modeling. Transition matrix analysis was used to investigate the change in land use between 1992 and 2011. Temporal trends and changes in meteorological data were evaluated from 1980-2017 using the Mann-Kendall test. Changes in streamflow and baseflow were assessed using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) hydrological model using multiple scenarios that varied in land use and climate change. Evaluation of the model outputs showed streamflow and baseflow in LEC are well represented using SWAT; however, comparing the calibration and validation period showed SWAT performs better for the calibration. During 1992-2011, roughly 30% of the watershed experienced change, typically cultivated agricultural areas became urbanized. Baseflow is significantly affected by the observed urbanization; however, the combination of land and climate variability has a larger effect on the baseflow in LEC. Generally, the variability in the baseflow and streamflow appears to be heavily driven by the response to climate change in comparison to variability due to altered land use. The results reported herein expand the current understanding of variation in hydrological components, and provides useful information for management planning regarding water resources, as well as water and soil conservation in urban watersheds in Indiana and beyond.

Uganda possesses natural rainforests that serve enormous environmental ecosystems and biodiversity services. Moreover, the country is known for its various tropical rainforest hardwoods, birds, and animal species. Over the years, the trend in the natural forest land has declined at an alarming rate; hence need to investigate the possible drivers. The loss of such biodiversity and ecosystems risks desertification and extreme climatic condition. As the world moves towards Zero Deforestation 2030, understanding the determinants of deforestation and forest degradation is paramount. Therefore, the main objective of this study was to understand the impact and relationships between net forest conversion, energy emission, agriculture, and forest production of Roundwood. We used data from FAO for the period 2004-2016. Using the ADF and KPSS test, we checked for the unit root presence in the variables. Also, the study used two different regression models: multiple linear regression and dynamic linear model. To analyze the determinants of deforestation, we used net forest conversion in Uganda. There was 94 % variation in the dependent variable (Net Forest conversion). The outcome of the dynamic linear regression showed that agriculture and energy emission positively impact net forest conversion. Based on our findings, this study recommended the modernization of agriculture by the government of Uganda to stop cutting down the forests on a big scale. Also, the study suggested that the government strictly legislate Roundwood and wood fuels/charcoal and firewood to reduce huge dependency on forests toward Zero-Deforestation by 2030. If well-structured and implemented, government policies could solve the unnecessary over dependency on the rainforest, the heart of the region's climatic conditions.

In this study, I extend the Fama and French five-factor asset pricing model with a sixth factor, namely, carbon risk, to investigate its impact on equity returns. To measure carbon risk, a new factor ‘pollutant minus green,’ is developed using the difference between the weighted average returns of pollutant and green firms across 51 developed and emerging countries across four categories—North America, Europe, Emerging Markets, and the Asia Pacific. The results reveal that North America, Europe, and Asia Pacific markets have a carbon risk premium that gets eliminated in small-cap firms. The carbon risk factor is further tested in left-hand side (LHS) test asset portfolios and found to be more pronounced with size-effect anomaly; specifically, small stock firms report greater declining average returns because of more exposure than the mega-cap stocks to carbon dioxide emissions. Furthermore, size-effect anomaly prevails with profitability and investment factors across firms. Therefore, high profitability, as well as high investment small firms, show a greater decline than the big stock firms in average returns when their carbon dioxide emissions increase. The asset pricing model evaluation is carried out through the Gibbons, Ross, and Shanken test. The six-factor model directed at capturing carbon risk patterns in average equity returns performs better than the three-factor and five-factor models of Fama and French (1993 and 2015) in the majority of categories under 3x3 sorting and compete with both Fama and French model under 2x4x4 sorted LHS portfolios. The finding of this study offers various useful applications for investors, policymakers, brokers, corporations, governmental pollution abatement institutions, and other stakeholders who wish to obtain carbon risk premium.

Climate change has a inevitable impacts on tree radial growth, particularly at mountain timeberlines. To understand climate effects on conifer radial growth in the central Hengduan Mountains and potential impacts of future climate change on conifer forest, we studied growth responses to climate variables in Abies georgei, the major tree species of conifer forest in Hengduan Mountains. We collected tree ring samples from four sites near the timberlines and analyzed the relationship between principle components (PC#1) of four chronologies and climatic variables by using response function analysis (RFA), redundancy analysis (RDA) and moving interval analysis (MIA). A. georgei growth was affected by both temperature (positive effects) and precipitation (negative effects). Specifically, the radial growth of A. georgei was significantly and positively correlated with current July and previous November temperature (detected by both RFA and RDA), while precipitation of current June and September inhibited tree growth (detected by RDA). More rapid warming in recent 20 years (1990–2010) clearly enhanced growth responses to July and November temperature, whereas the relationship was weaken for June and September precipitation according to MIA. Under the climate trend of the study area, if the increasing temperature could offset the negative effects of excessive precipitation, A. georgei radial growth would likely benefit from warming, the dynamics of conifer forest should also consider indirect impacts of climate change.

Groundwater is the most extracted raw material in the world with global annual withdrawal rates of 800–1500 km3/year. In East and Southern Africa, 70 % of the population are reliant on shallow groundwater as their primary drinking water source. With increased population growth, intensification of agriculture and industrialization, conflicting demands on groundwater present a challenge to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals (6,3,11,12,15). Between 2015 and 2018, the Horn of Africa was affected by a series of climatic induced events, namely El Nino, La Nina and the Indian Ocean Diopole. These events modified the variability of rainfall patterns and resulted in long periods of low rainfall, low recharge and high evapotranspiration. As a result, shallow aquifers in alluvial deposits of Somali region have low yields and produce brackish and saline water. That situation prompted humanitarian water professionals to finance the transportation of water from selected locations with high groundwater potential through water trucks to areas facing groundwater depletion and drought. To address this challenge, UNICEF explored alternative, sustainable deeper groundwater sources that could be extracted using solar water pumping technology for multi water use. This paper describes a three-phase methodology of deep groundwater development of wells in the Ogaden Jesoma sandstone aquifers of the Somali region of the Horn of Africa to a depth of 600 meters below ground level. The results concluded that the deep sandstone aquifer of Jesoma can provide fresh water with yields of 15 l/s to the local population of Somali region. to the study provided insights into deep groundwater identification and development as well as adaptive deep boreholes drilling as a source for climate resilient water supplies.

This work assesses sea-level rise using three different models created on Free and Open-Source Software for Geographic Information System (FOSS4GIS). Based on regional projections of Special Report on Climate Change and Oceans and Cryosphere (SROCC) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the models were applied to a case of study on Rio Grande do Sul coast – Brazil under different sea-level rise scenarios by the end of this century. The End Point Rate for QGIS (EPR4Q), calculates a shoreline projection using End Point Rate method. The Uncertainty Bathtub Model (uBTM), analyses the sea-level rise impact by the uncertainty of sea-level projec-tions and vertical error of the Digital Elevation/Terrain Model (DEM/DTM). The Bruun Rule for Google Earth Engine Model (BRGM) predicts the shoreline position with sea-level rise, using topographic and bathymetric data from Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAV) and Coastal Modelling System (SMC – Brazil), respectively. The results indicated a maximum shoreline retreat for 2100 of -502 m and -1727 m using EPR4Q and BRGM, correspondingly. The uBTM using the land-use of Mapbiomas showed a maximum of 44.57 km2 of urban area impacted by the sea-level flood. This research highlights the possibility of performing coastal management analysis in GIS environ-ment using non-commercial software.

Empirical evidence is lacking on the nexus between coffee commodity output, climate change and commodity price volatility of Africa’s most populous country, Nigeria and other developing countries. To fill this gap, this study analyzed the reaction of coffee output to climate change and commodity price volatility. We used secondary data from 1961 to 2015 from reliable sources for Nigeria. The study adopted GARCH, ARCH and FMOLS in analysis of coffee output reaction to climate change and commodity price volatility. The findings show that coffee output in Nigeria is influenced by climate change and the international commodity price of coffee. The study demonstrates the potential benefits of improving coffee output and export through climate mitigation and adaptation measures and revival of Agricultural Commodity Marketing in Nigeria and other developing countries.

The Tsunami disaster was the first and the biggest in Banten Province. However, in response to the health crisis, the preparedness was still lacking, even though in an emergency response situation, the management of disaster management carried out was quite good. The method of research is based on data reports that include quantitative and qualitative methods. Analyzing health facilities and the impacts that occurred in the field during the tsunami period is the basis for this article and, at the same time, a discussion of describing problems that can be anticipated in the future.

Achieving and sustaining stability for economic growth remain the greatest and most immediate development challenge for Ethiopia. For natural resource-based economies especially maintaining stability and growth depends fundamentally upon climate change adaptation and mitigation. The close links between climate and Ethiopia’s economy are reflected by the strong relationship between GDP growth rate and rainfall variability. A study by the World Bank projects that unless steps to build resilience are effective, climate change will reduce Ethiopia’s GDP growth by between 0.5 and 2.5% each year. Along with the challenges posed by climate change, a number of development opportunities are emerging in response to climate change which includes access to international climate finance. The international response to climate change in the form of external development finance plays a key role to support developing countries in their transition to a low-carbon, climate-resilient and sustainable development pathway. Therefore, this study was conducted to assess the flow and the overall contribution of climate finance to sustainable development in Ethiopia. Specifically, focused on outlining how climate finance is currently reconciled in the existing Ethiopian climate change governance and its contribution to sustainable development. In order to achieve these objectives, data were collected from different sources. The Rio Marker methodology applied to review climate financial flow over the 5 year period. The result reveals that, climate change is central to development agendas despite its recent emergence in the mainstream, with various initiatives under way to combat or reduce its impacts in Ethiopia. In addition, the amount of climate finance from the developed countries to Ethiopia shows some fluctuation for the past five years. In general, the overall flow of climate finance mostly targeted climate adaptation actions which spur and enable the transition towards climate-resilient growth and sustainable development.

Shutdown for just six days enables land plants to entirely fix CO₂ excess of +4 Gt C per yr. Rebuilding soil organic carbon (SOC) in worm-worked humus is the only practical carbon capture and storage (CCS) capable of freely offsetting annual anthropogenic emissions. A case is made to redirect all available resources towards proven, earthworm-based, organic husbandry. Priority is to safely combat mounting global threats due to irreversible species extinction, perilous climate change and deteriorating human wellbeing (mental/physical health). All three interlinked risks are underpinned by a relentless, yet largely ignored, critical loss of precious topsoil. A first step to topsoil recovery is vermi-composting all vegetable and animal ‘wastes’ for return to the field.

Paleoclimatic and paleoceanographic studies routinely rely on the usage of foraminiferal calcite through faunal, morphometric and physico-chemical proxies. The application of such proxies presupposes the extraction and cleaning of these biomineralized components from ocean sediments in the most efficient way, a process which is often labor intensive and time consuming. In this respect, in this study we performed a systematic experiment for planktonic foraminiferal specimen cleaning using different chemical treatments and evaluated the resulting data of a Late Quaternary gravity core sample from the Aegean Sea. All cleaning procedures adopted here were made on the basis of their minimum potential bias upon foraminiferal proxies, such as the faunal assemblages, degree of fragmentation, stable isotope composition (δ18O and δ13C) and/or Mg/Ca ratios that are frequently used as proxies for surface-ocean climate parameters (e.g., sea surface temperature, sea surface salinity). Six different protocols were tested, involving washing, sieving, and chemical treatment of the samples with hydrogen peroxide and/or sodium hexametaphosphate (Calgon ®). Single species foraminifera shell weighing was combined with high-resolution Scanning Electron Microscopy (SEM) and synchrotron X-ray Microtomography (SμCT) of the material processed by each of the cleaning protocols, in order to assess the decontamination degree of specimen’s ultrastructure and interior. It appeared that a good compromise between time and cleaning efficiency is the simultaneous treatment of samples with a mixed hydrogen peroxide and Calgon solution, while the most effective way for an almost complete decontaminate of the calcareous components from undesirable sedimentary material is a two-step treatment - initially with hydrogen peroxide and subsequently with Calgon solutions.

Many pilot-based initiatives have been developed to promote awareness and use of climate information services among vulnerable smallholder farmers in Africa through million-dollar investments. However, despite their experimental nature, these pilot projects have been successful in raising participating farmers’ awareness and use of climate information services and they can inform transferrable good practices. Through a systematic literature review approach, this review sought to understand ways in which these past pilot projects have contributed to climate risk management in the context of smallholder farming and the factors that led to their success. Results showed that climate information services main contribution to climate risk management has been through facilitating farm level decision making. Factors that led to success of the pilots include: use of downscaled information; building institutional partnerships to add value to climate information; involving farmers through the co-designing and co-developing process; face-to-face way of communication; embedding pre-seasonal workshops in the activities of local institutions for sustainability; using diversity of communication channels to enhance reach among others. These factors can be borrowed as good practices to inform future efforts focused on increasing adoption of climate information services among a wider population beyond pilot project reach.

Changes in extreme weather patterns are expected under climate change. In this study, a risk assessment was conducted using 4 building damage history datasets and 33 weather datasets (precipitation, wind speed, snow, and temperature) from 230 regions in South Korea to quantitatively analyze and predict building damage caused by potential future natural disasters. Decision tree analysis was used to evaluate building damage risk in 230 regions. The decision tree model to determine the risk of flood, gale, and typhoon was generated, which excluded gales, with less damage. The weight (variable importance) and limit value (damage limit) of the weather variables ware derived using the decision tree model. Using these two factors, we assessed the building damage risk in 230 regions in South Korea until 2100. The number of regions at risk of flood damage increased by more than 30% in average. Conversely, regions at risk of snowfall damage decreased by more than 90%. The regions at risk of typhoons decreased by 57.5% on average, and the number of regions at high risk of typhoon damage increased by up to 62.5% in RCP 8.5. These results can be used as objective data to minimize future building damage throughout South Korea, representing the first step towards sustainable development in the region with respect to disaster response.

This paper presents a research carried out in the city of Chillan, a medium size city located on the southern limit of the Chilean Mediterranean domain, at 36º 36`s south latitude. Chillán provides a good representative example of warm summers in central and southern Chilean cities. Five public spaces were selected, representing different typologies and relating to different urban background conditions. Users in these public spaces were observed, counted and photographed five times a day (12, 14, 16, 18 and 20 hours, local time) during a heat wave event in the summer of 2016, while meteorological parameters were established at different points within the public space. The variables evaluated were impervious surfaces, Skyview factor, H/W, azimuth, shadow and radiation. Local public environmental management should pay attention to the complex relations between urban climate, public spaces and thermal comfort since they affect the quality of life of the most vulnerable sectors of the population. This is particularly important given the increasing episodes of high temperatures and intense heat waves occurred in the city of Chillán in recent summers, which are related to urban heat islands and climate change.

Climate projections show that southern Indonesia such as West Nusa Tenggara is projected to experience a lower precipitation and higher temperatures. To date, research on climate change impact on Indonesian rice production yield is limited. As climate change is projected to decrease rainfall and to increase temperatures, this paper offers a qualitative analysis using system archetypes to understand the impacts of climate change on rice production. Two system archetypes are identified including Limits to Growth and Success to Successful. Both archetypes explain that rice production is hampered by high minimum temperature as photosynthesis output is decreased by increasing respiration. This paper shows that using a simple tool, system archetypes, we can describe the impacts of climate change on rice production. The outputs of this study such as a causal loop diagram and system archetypes can be a basis to develop a simulation model in understanding the impacts of climate change on main crops.

Diverse factors may have an impact in Carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions; thus, three main contributors, energy consumption, exergy indicator and gross domestic product (GDP) are examined in this work. This study explores the relationship between economic growth and energy consumption by means of the hypothesis postulated for the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC). Panel data for 10 countries, from 1971 to 2014 have been studied. Despite all this wide gamma of research, the role of an exergy variable has not been tested to find the EKC; then exergy analysis is proposed. Exergy analyses were developed to propose an exergetic indicator as a control variable and a comparative empirical study is developed to study a multivariable framework with the aim to detect correlations between them. High correlation between CO₂, GDP, energy consumption, energy intensity and trade openness are observed, conversely not statistically significant values for trade openness and energy intensity. The results do not support the EKC hypothesis, however exergy intensity opens the door for future research once it proves to be a useful control variable. Exergy provides opportunities to analyze and implement energy and environmental policies in these countries, with the possibility to link exergy efficiencies and the use of renewables.

Low carbon cities are increasingly forming a distinct strand of sustainability literature. Models have been developed to measure the performance of low carbon cities. The purpose of this paper is to formulate a strategy-based model to evaluate current performance and predict future conditions of low carbon cities. It examines the dynamic interrelationships between key performance indicators (KPIs), induces changes to city plan targets and then instantly predicts the outcome of these changes. Designed generic and flexible, the proposed model shows how low carbon targets could be used to guide the transformation of low carbon cities under four strategies: (1) passive intervention, (2) problem solving, (3) trend modifying and (4) opportunity seeking. Further, the model has been applied to 17 cities and then tested on 5 cities: London, New York, Barcelona, Dubai and Istanbul. The paper concludes with policy implications to realign city plans and support low carbon innovation.

Dengue hemorrhagic fever is an arboviral infectious disease that has occurred frequently as an extraordinary event due to its fast spread and lethal potential in Indonesia. The vector Aedes aegypti is sensitive to climate variability. This study determines the relationship between climate variability and dengue hemorrhagic fever in Surabaya, East Java, Indonesia from 2009 to 2017. This study used the monthly dengue hemorrhagic fever incidence obtained from the Surabaya Health Office and the monthly climate variability parameters (average temperature, rainfall, humidity) obtained from the Indonesian Agency for Meteorology, Climatology and Geophysics and website www.worldweatheronline.com. Data analysis was done using One-Sample Kolmogorov Smirnov Test and Spearman non-parametric correlation test. The results showed a correlation between all three climate variability parameters with dengue hemorrhagic fever incidence (average temperature p<0.05, r=-0.603; rainfall p<0.05, r=0.407; humidity p<0.05, r=0.7). Average temperature is negatively correlated to dengue hemorrhagic fever incidence, while rainfall and humidity are positively correlated to dengue hemorrhagic fever incidence. This study shows preliminary evidence on the correlation of climate variability and dengue hemorrhagic fever in Surabaya, East Java, Indonesia.

This paper identifies the characteristics of the farmer that affect the degree of farmer’s perceived-impact of climate change (CC). We use data from the Indonesian Rice Farm Household survey consisting of 87,330 farmers. An ordered probit regression model was used to estimate the effect of each variable on the degree of perceived-impact of CC. The results of this study confirm the previous empirical studies. Several variables that have been identified as having a positive effect on farmer adaptation practices such as farmer education, land tenure, irrigation infrastructure, cropping system, chemical fertilizer application, access to extension services and participation in farmer group affect the degree of CC perceived-impact negatively. However, a different result was found in the estimation of the gender variable. We found that female farmer has a higher resilience toward CC than the male farmer does. Furthermore, the female farmer has a more positive perception about future farming conditions than the male does. Finally, we suggest that the implementation of national adaptation policy should prioritize more to the farmer with insecure land tenure and utilize and expand the channel of agricultural extension services to deliver the planned adaptation policy.

Historical analysis of Australian bushfire data spanning 170 years addresses whether the strength of recent fire events has been exacerbated by human-induced climate change. The question of “cause” looks at the characteristics of a wider range of natural hazards. Fire characteristics are compared with earthquake hazard characteristics: (1) energy – termed “magnitude”; (2) severity – termed “intensity”; and (3) resultant damage to people and structures – termed “impact”.Published global, Northern and Southern hemisphere temperature data are shown to vary consistently in phase over 170 years, but vary in amplitude with statistical significance. CO₂ levels north and south of the Equator have tracked quite consistently. Thus, Southern Hemisphere bushfire magnitude and intensity is compared with the Southern Hemisphere climate record, rather than a global data set.28 major bushfires and associated droughts since 1850 show neither apparent drought extent, nor area burned, nor bushfire intensity, correlates with changes in Southern Hemisphere climate. Average rainfall from 1900 shows a wetter, rather than drier trend. Cyclone energy shows no significant trend with climate. Planet-wide “greening”, through CO₂ fertilisation, is an insignificant contributor to bushfire magnitude. Combustion theory shows recorded “global warming” could have had no significant influence on bushfire magnitude or intensity. Any increase in Australian bushfire impact, as judged by lives lost, similarly, shows no correlation with bushfire magnitude, nor indeed, any observed Southern Hemisphere global warming.Thus, bushfire magnitude seems much more likely driven by fuel load and any anomalous bushfire intensity is likely driven by anomalous ground level fuel load. The evidence suggests that any CO₂ emissions reduction will have no impact on future bushfire “severity.

Surface urban heat island (SUHI) depicts the deteriorating thermal environment in high-density cities and local climate zone (LCZ) classification provides a universal protocol for SUHI identification. In this study, taking the central urbanized area of Guangzhou in the humid subtropical region of China as the study area, the maps or images of LCZ, land surface temperature (LST), SUHI and urban design factors were achieved by using Landsat satellite data, GIS database and a series of retrieval and classification algorithms, and the urban design factors influencing SUHI were investigated based on 625 samples of LCZs. The results show that in the summer daytime under the clear sky condition, the LST varied greatly from 26 °C to 40 °C and the SUHI changed in a wide range of -6 °C to 8 °C in the LCZs of the study area. Seven and five urban design factors influencing the summer daytime SUHI were identified for the two dominant LCZ of LCZs 1-5 (LCZ 1 to LCZ 5) and the mixed LCZ (containing at least three types of LCZs), respectively. The summer daytime SUHI prediction models were obtained by using the step-wise multiple linear regression, with the performance of R2 of 0.697, RMSE of 1.21 °C, and the d value of 0.81 for the model of LCZs 1-5, and the values of 0.666, 1.66 °C, and 0.76 for the model of the mixed LCZ, indicating that the models can predict the changes of SUHI with LCZs to a large and satisfactory extent. This study presents a methodology to efficiently achieve a large sample of SUHI and urban design factors of LCZs in the largely urbanized cities, and provides information beneficial to the urban designs and regenerations in the humid subtropical region.

Semi-arid Namibia is marginal for agricultural production. Low soil fertility combined with low and variable rainfall restrict the livelihoods of smallholder farmers who often struggle to produce enough food. Although historically communities have adopted a number of coping mechanisms, climate change threatens to further reduce agricultural production. There are many additional options available to smallholder farmers to adapt to climate change, but they are not necessarily adopting these measures despite having noticed increasing temperatures and declining rainfall. Semi-structured interviews were conducted in three villages in Onesi constituency to examine what agricultural practices smallholder crop farmers use, perception of changes in their yields, their perspective on future yields and whether they are planning on changing their agricultural practices. The results suggest that to sustain the livelihoods of rural communities in north-central Namibia support is needed from local and regional authorities, as well as traditional and religious leaders to assist with enhancing access to information, enabling information sharing on adaptation options, and increasing awareness on climate change, it’s impacts and what can be done about it. In addition to this the implementation of adaptation action also requires demonstration sites and building capacity to enable the development of self-help groups.

The Storm Water Management Model (SWMM) was used to evaluate the impact of urbanization, climate change, and implementation of Low Impact Developments (LIDs) at the Mahabad Dam watershed, Iran. Several scenarios of urbanization, with and without climate change impacts, in different locations were defined, including near outlet, middle, far end, and whole watershed. Climate change was considered to change the intensity of rainfall and increase evaporation. Vegetative swales were implemented as LIDs to evaluate their applicability to reduce pollutant loads. Digital Elevation Model (DEM) of the area was input into ArcGIS, and the watershed was delineated using the ArcSWAT extension to identify topographic features. Water quality properties were defined in the software, and each scenario was run for a twelve-hour simulation. The results indicated that urbanization affects the imperviousness of sub-catchments, and location of urbanization affects the amount and timing of runoff and pollutant yields. Fifty-percent urbanization near the watershed outlet resulted in 23.1% and 27.4% increases in runoff and pollutant loads, respectively. Fifty-percent urbanization in the middle resulted in 28.8% and 35.4% increases in runoff and pollutant loads; and, at the far end, 23.1% and 3.9% increases in runoff and pollutant loads were the result; Fifty-percent urbanizing the whole watershed gave 58.6% and 66.3% increases in runoff and pollutant loads, respectively; Under climate change scenarios (higher intensity, shorter duration rainfall) peaks occurred earlier. Moreover, results showed LIDs decreased pollution loads up to 25%.

This study explores wind energy resources in different locations through the Gulf of Oman and also their future variability due climate change impacts. In this regard, EC-EARTH near-surface wind outputs obtained from CORDEX-MENA simulations are used for historical and future projection of the energy. The ERA5 wind data are employed to assess the suitability of the climate model. Moreover, the ERA5 wave data over the study area are applied to compute sea surface roughness as an important variable for converting near-surface wind speeds to those of wind speed at turbine hub height. Considering the power distribution, bathymetry and distance from the coats, some spots as tentative energy hotspots to provide a detailed assessment of directional and temporal variability and also to investigate climate change impact studies. RCP8.5 is a common climatic scenario is used to project and extract future variation of the energy in the selected sites. The results of this study demonstrate that the selected locations have a suitable potential for wind power turbine plans and constructions.

1) Background: Climate change may subject forests to climate conditions to which they are not adapted. Elevated temperatures reduce net photosynthesis by increasing respiration rates and increasingly long droughts dramatically increase morbidity. CO₂ enrichment enhances productivity, but it is not clear to what extent CO₂ enrichment can offset the negative effects of elevated temperatures and longer droughts. 2) Methods: We used a mechanistic landscape model to conduct controlled simulation experiments manipulating CO₂ concentration, temperature, drought length and soil water capacity. 3) Results: We found that elevated CO₂ stimulates productivity such that it dwarfs the negative effect caused by elevated temperature. Energy reserves were not as strongly mitigated by elevated CO₂, and mortality of less competitive cohorts increased. Drought length had a surprisingly small effect on productivity measures, but had a marked negative effect on mortality risk. 4) Conclusions: Elevated CO₂ compensated for the negative effect of longer droughts in terms of productivity measures, but not survival measures.

Equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) is the change in global mean temperature expected to result from doubling atmospheric CO2 concentration from pre-industrial levels. Extensive research during the past 40 years has not reduced the uncertainty associated with ECS. Sherwood et al. [1] applied Bayesian statistics to evidence from climate-process physics, historical observations and earlier proxies to reduce the range of ECS from 1.5 – 4.5 K to 2.6 – 4.1 K. This paper examines their methods and many of the assumptions they made. It also evaluates two additional periods in the Holocene to show that factors other than CO2 drove recent climate change. It identifies potential systematic errors resulting from adding non-equilibrium short-term adjustments to the radiative forcing of greenhouse gases and from underestimating the effects of solar irradiance, ocean currents and aerosols. These factors have resulted in estimates of the forcing by CO2 that far exceed the apparent effects in paleoclimate data.

When attempting to quantify future harms caused by carbon emissions and to set appropriate energy policies, it has been argued that the most important metric is the number of human deaths caused by climate change. Several studies have attempted to overcome the uncertainties associated with such forecasting. In this article, approaches to estimating future human deaths tolls from climate change are compared and synthesized, and implications for energy policy are considered. Several studies are consistent with the “1000-ton rule,” according to which a future person is killed every time 1000 tons of fossil carbon are burned (order-of-magnitude estimate). If warming reaches or exceeds 2°C this century, mainly richer humans will be responsible for killing roughly 1 billion mainly poorer humans through anthropogenic global warming. Such mass manslaughter is clearly unacceptable. On this basis, relatively aggressive energy policies are summarized that would enable immediate and substantive decreases to carbon emissions. The limitations to such calculations are outlined and future work is recommended to accelerate the decarbonization of the global economy while minimizing the number of sacrificed human lives.

Downpours are increasing in frequency and severity due to climate change. Cities are particularly susceptible to downpours because of their large share of impervious surfaces. Minimising pluvial flood risk requires all involved stakeholders to collaborate and overcome probable barriers. Simultaneously, an increase in citizen engagement in climate adaptation is preferred, whereas experiences with inclusive decision-making are still limited. The aim of this paper is to obtain a deeper understanding of how the capacity to govern pluvial flood risk can be developed through citizen engagement. We scrutinised the capacity of local actors to govern pluvial flood risk in the city of Utrecht, the Netherlands. For the analysis of Utrecht’s problem-solving capacity, the Governance Capacity Framework provided a consistent assessment of governance components. The results indicate that Utrecht’s capacity to govern pluvial flooding is relatively well-developed. Collaboration between public authorities is advanced, sufficient financial resources are available and smart monitoring enables high levels of evaluation and learning. However, citizen awareness and engagement in policy making is rather low. Accordingly, citizens’ willingness to pay for flood adaptation is limited. Stimulating flood risk awareness by combining financial incentives with more advanced arrangements for active citizen engagement is key for Utrecht and other cities.

Climate change-induced events amplify existing social, political, economic, infrastructural and environmental concerns in many Global South cities, and perhaps no city is more vulnerable than Bangladesh’s capital of Dhaka. Climate-induced rural-urban migration is a profound concern, and Dhaka’s political leaders have embraced technology-based innovation as a solution pathway. This article explores the societal impact of Dhaka’s innovation environment strategies for climate change adaptation and mitigation. Employing a case study qualitative methodology, our three findings expand knowledge about innovation-urban climate mitigation as understood by Dhaka-based entrepreneurs: First, the most effective innovations were not the most technologically advanced, but those with the highest degree of participant ownership. Second, gaps between recipient, corporate and governmental understandings of effective mitigation and adaptation harmed projects, and were driven by different definitions of risk and competing understandings of vulnerability. Third, even the most technical climate adaptation measures were inherently political in their application. We discuss how to better position urban climate innovation infrastructures in Bangladesh and beyond, including developing a better recognition of innovation lifecycles for urban climate adaptation and widening our definitions of ‘innovation’ to better incorporate more effective and inclusive climate adaptation solutions.

As recent history has shown, changing climate not only threatens to increase the spread of known disease, but also the emergence of new and dangerous phenotypes. This occurred most recently with West Nile virus: a virus previously known for mild febrile illness rapidly emerged to become a major cause of mortality and long-term disability throughout the world. As we move forward, into increasingly uncertain times, public health research must begin to incorporate a broader understanding of the determinants of disease emergence – what, how, why, and when. The increasing mainstream availability of high-quality open data and high-powered analytical methods presents promising new opportunities. Up to now, quantitative models of disease outbreak risk have been largely based on just a few key drivers, namely climate and large-scale climatic effects. Such limited assessments, however, often overlook key interacting processes and downstream determinants more likely to drive local manifestation of disease. Such pivotal determinants may include local host abundance, human behavioral variability, and population susceptibility dynamics. The results of such analyses can therefore be misleading in cases where necessary downstream requirements are not fulfilled. It is therefore important to develop models that include climate and higher-level climatic effects alongside the downstream non-climatic factors that ultimately determine individual disease manifestation. Today, few models attempt to comprehensively address such dynamics: up until very recently, the technology simply hasn’t been available. Herein, we present an updated overview of current perspectives on the varying drivers and levels of interactions that drive disease spread. We review the predominant analytical paradigms, discuss their strengths and weaknesses, and highlight promising new analytical solutions. Our focus is on the prediction of arboviruses, particularly West Nile virus, as these diseases represent the pinnacle of epidemiological complexity – solution to which would serve as an effective “gatekeeper”. We present the current state-of-the-art with respect to known drivers of arbovirus outbreak risk and severity, differentially highlighting the impact of climate and non-climatic drivers. The reality of multiple classes of drivers interacting at different geospatial and temporal scales requires advanced new methodologies. We therefore close out by presenting and discussing some promising new applications of AI. Given the reality of accelerating disease risks due to climate change, public health and other related fields must begin the process of updating their research programs to incorporate these much needed, new capabilities.

The Residential and Industrial zones as is, rely heavily, if not exclusively, on Hydrocarbons. Hydrocarbon thermal machinery such as Spark Ignition-Compression Ignition engines, Gasoline-Diesel generators, Coal-Lignite gasifiers, residential diesel-powered heating systems, Pyrolysis units and so on, are commonly met all around the planet. Such technology practically oxidizes Hydrocarbons to produce either heat, steam or useful mechanical work depending on the application, though energy losses are not, by any means, insignificant. Advanced material processing is an industrial sector who’s energy demand is significant and it is important for the general public to come to terms with the fact that by implementing Hydrogen technology to power such plant while at the same time improving the energy equilibrium of houses(advanced materials), communities would be taking major steps towards Climate Change effects debilitation. The downside of Hydrocarbon thermochemical exploitation can be described by the limited resources-reserves and the gaseous pollutant emissions (CO2, CO, NOx, SOx). In recent years, the Industrial zone as a whole has began taking a turn towards Electrification without having established the necessary infrastructure to support such a transition. Indicatively, at current rate of production, dead Lithium-Ion batteries are projected to reach as high as 11,000 metric tons by 2030, yet there is no recycling scheme in place, not to mention the prospect of that number rising even more, given the recent e-mobility trend. As it pertains to Electrification, such powertrains-machinery require electricity and a battery. Electricity production is mainly achieved through Coal-Lignite gasification, Batteries require metals, among others, for manufacturing, meaning that up-on mining, local water resources are contaminated, another very important ‘aspect’ of Lithium(per say) mining is that child labor is often associated with such processes, a truly despicable act. All of the above paint a crystal-clear picture as to how ‘environmentally friendly’ reckless-rushed Electrification really is. Climate Change is up-on us and it’s effects on the planet are obvious, the most important of which is glacier melting due to rising of the global Temperature. The COVID-19 crisis is a sign of what could come from glacier melting could as ice contains potentially harmful-toxic to humans, biological entities that are sure to be introduced to the general public if we were to continue exploiting mineral resources. Purpose of this paper is to provide a general overview of the technology around Hydrogen.

Research Highlights: Hagenia abyssinica is geographically localized, poor regenerated and endangered species in Ethiopia. Ethiopia has been experiencing variability of rainfall and rise in temperature due to the climate change. This study has hypothesized that the suitable areas for the species will be narrowed by the year 2070. Background and Objective The prediction of species distribution models help to implement appropriate conservation actions. The aim of this research was to identify the current and likely future distribution range and suitable areas for the species, and to determine the presence of H. absyssinica in risk in a short-term future. Material and method: To this end, occurrence data, bioclim variables, soil, elevation, and land cover map of Ethiopia were used. MaxEnt was used to predict distribution. Climate change impacts on the distribution of the species was performed using bioclimatic variables of the future climate data, 2070 (average for 2061-2080) was obtained from IPPC5 (CMIP5) at 30 seconds (1km) spatial resolution. The climate data was projected from GCMs, downscaled and calibrated using rcp4.5. Results: Both current and likely future distribution models were excellent and significantly better than random performance. This study has computed 59987 km2 to be the low impact area for the species under current conditions and will remain habitat under future climates and 39025 km2 area has been identified as the possible high impact areas or declining habitat. The model has also determined that 1238724 km2 of the areas are unsuitable at present and for future climates. The current study found that 15751 km2 of the area will be modified as a new suitable area for H. abyssinica due to climate change. Conclusion: Species distribution modeling is essential for the implementation of conservation actions that are compatible with the inevitable changing climatic conditions of the country.

Individuals with low health literacy (HL) are known to have poorer health outcomes and to have higher mortality rates compared to individuals with higher HL: hence, the improvement of HL is a key outcome in modern healthcare systems. Healthcare providers are therefore asked to support patients’ literacy skills by encouraging the implementation of autonomy-supportive patient centered communication (PCC), which in turn requires the enhancement of patient engagement. Our main hypothesis is that the well-known relationship between autonomy-supportive PCC and HL is mediated by patient engagement which is known to play a role in HL promotion and that is related to PCC as well. The purpose of this study was to formulate a hypothetical structural equation model (SEM) linking PCC to patient engagement and HL. A cross-sectional survey design was employed involving 1007 Italian chronic patients. The hypothetical model was tested using SEM to verify the hypothesized mediation of patient engagement between PCC and HL. Results show that the theoretical model has a good fit indexes and that patient engagement fully mediates the relationship between PCC and HL. This finding suggests healthcare systems to implement a new paradigm where patients are supported to play an autonomous role in their own healthcare.

The goal of Man and the Biosphere (MAB) Programme is to support sustainable development through effective management, innovative technologies, policy suggestion and governance. Today, the concept of Biosphere Reserves plays an important role in scientific investigations, generating knowledge, and experiences to link socio-economic development and biodiversity conservation for human well-being. This research, through an independent study which takes place in the Hungarian Biosphere Reserves of Pilis and Kiskunság aims at identifying practical sustainable business models which are suitable for supporting livelihood of locals. In this research, the two Biosphere Reserves serve as the learning sites under the light of global principles and state-of-the-art-of knowledge on sustainable development and sustainable business models. To do so, the state-of-the-art-of sustainable business model has been investigated through a comprehensive academic research. The lessons that learned from this investigation are used to support the data gathering method and planning the field trips to identify the sustainable business models currently in use at the Biosphere Reserves. This research particularly had been interested in small-sized sustainable business models practiced by small communities or families in various zones of Biosphere Reserves. First set of interviews and questionnaires designed to identify the business models in practice. The results identify foraging the wild plants in the buffer zone and transition areas as a potential sustainable business model in practice. Further interviews and surveys were conducted with foragers shows the beneficial of their practice on the local ecosystem and in increasing awareness on the deep connection with the ecosystems. The sustainable business model of foraging in addition to providing a sustainable livelihood for the locals maintains a spiritual connection between people and land. The identified sustainable business model can further be educational and practical for other 685 biosphere reserves.

Sufficient evidence is currently available to demonstrate the reality of the warming of our planet's climate system. Global warming has different effects on climate at the regional and local levels. The detection of changes in extreme events using instrumental data provides further evidence of such warming and allows for the characterization of its local manifestations. The present study analyzes changes in temperature and precipitation extremes in the Mexican state of Zacatecas using climate change indices developed by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection, Monitoring and Indices (ETCCDI). We studied a 40-year period (1976-2015) using annual and seasonal time scales. Maximum and minimum temperature data were used, as well as precipitation statistics from the Mexican climatology database (CLICOM) provided by the Mexican meteorological service. Weather stations with at least 80% of data availability for the selected study period were selected; these databases were subjected to quality control, homogenization, and data filling using Climatol, which runs in the R programming language. These homogenized series were used to obtain daily grides of the three variables at a resolution of 1.3 km. Results reveal important changes in temperature-related indices, such as the increase in maximum temperature and the decrease in minimum temperature. Irregular variability was observed in the case of precipitation, which could be associated with low-frequency oscillations such as the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and the El Niño–Southern Oscillation. The possible impact of these changes in temperature and the increased irregularity of precipitation could have a negative impact on the agricultural sector, especially given that the state of Zacatecas is the largest national bean producer. The most important problems in the short term will be related to the difficulty of adapting to these rapid changes and the new climate scenario, which will pose new challenges in the future.

Nature-based solutions (NbS) - working with and enhancing nature to address societal challenges - are increasingly being featured in climate change adaptation policy and plans. While there is growing evidence that NbS can reduce vulnerability to climate change impacts in general, there is a lack of understanding on the mechanisms through which this can be achieved, particularly in the Global South. To address this, we analyse 85 nature-based interventions in rural areas across the Global South, and factors mediating their effectiveness, based on a systematic map of peer-reviewed studies encompassing a wide diversity of ecosystems, climate impacts, and intervention types. We develop and apply an analytical framework of people’s social-ecological vulnerability to climate change, in terms of six pathways of vulnerability reduction: social and ecological exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity. Most cases (95%) report a reduction in vulnerability, primarily by lowering ecosystem sensitivity to climate impacts (73% of interventions), followed by reducing social sensitivity (52%), reducing ecological exposure (36%), increasing social adaptive capacity (31%), increasing ecological adaptive capacity (19%) and/or reducing social exposure (14%). An analysis of mediating factors shows that social dimensions are equally important as technical factors in NbS to achieving equitable and effective outcomes. Attention to the distinct social and ecological pathways through which vulnerability is reduced helps to harness the multiple benefits of working with nature in a warming world.

For water-stressed regions like Iran improving the effectiveness and productivity of agricultural water-use is of utmost importance due to climate change and unsustainable demands. Therefore, a hydro-economic model has been developed here for the Zarrine River Basin with the central concept of that demands are value-sensitive functions, where quantities of water-uses at different locations and times have a changeable economic benefits. To do this, the potential crop yields and the surface and groundwater resources, especially Boukan Dam inflow are simulated using the hydrologic model, SWAT, based on predicted climatic scenarios i.e. quantile mapping-downscaled projections. Then, to allocate the agricultural water based on the agro- economic crop water productivity (AEWP) of crops, a basin-wide water management tool, MODSIM, is customized. Next, a simulation- optimization model has been developed using a coupled CSPSO-MODSIM, to optimize the total AEWP, considering climatic impact and crop pattern scenarios, for 2020-2038, 2050-2068 and 2080-2098 periods. Finally, the optimum crop pattern and crop water irrigation depths are presented for different RCPs and periods. The results indicated that this approach will improve considerably the AEWPs and decrease the agricultural water-use up to 40%. Thus, this integrated model is able to support water authorities and other stakeholder in a water-scarce basin, as is the study area.

Lake Chapala is a natural ecosystem of Mexico, declared Ramsar site, currently, is an area with importance in the agricultural sector, tourism, and important source of drinking water in the Metropolitan area of Guadalajara, considered as a thermo regulatory body. This study used tools such as Rhtest, as well as analyzing extreme climate indices using RClimdex. In addition, the relationship with the change in water surface of Lake Chapala was assessed through the NDWI index, using Landsat images, between 1985 and 2018. According to the obtained results, the signs of climatic variability are detected in the study region, which, directly affects the basin runoff and water levels in the lake, as well as, the factor of water overexploitation in the basin, so it is considered that the lake conditions mostly depend on the type of management that is given to the resource. Finally, the results will help the understanding of climate variability and its water resources influence of the Lerma Chapala basin, which will assist in future research.

In the last decades droughts, deforestation and wildfires have become recurring phenomena that have affected both human activities and natural ecosystems in Amazonia. The time an ecosystem requires to recover from carbon losses is a crucial metric to evaluate disturbance impacts on forests. However, the factors influencing and controlling the recovery time and its spatiotemporal patterns at the regional scale are still poorly understood. In this study, we combined forest growth model, remote sensing and field plots, to map Amazonia-wide (300-ha resolution) impact and recovery time of aboveground biomass (AGB) after drought, fire and a combination of logging and fire. Our simulated results indicate that AGB decreases by 4%, 19% and 46% in forests disturbed by drought, fire and logging + fire, respectively, with an average AGB recovery time of 27 years for drought, 44 years for burned and 63 years for logged + burned areas and with maximum values reaching 184 years in areas of high fire intensity. Our findings provide two major insights in the spatial and temporal patterns of drought and wildfire in the Amazon: 1) the recovery time of the forests takes longer in the southeastern part of the basin, and, 2) as droughts and wildfires become more frequent – since the intervals between the disturbances is getting shorter than forest regeneration – potentially causing a long-lasting damage in these fragile ecosystems and a permanent degradation.

This study focusses on identifying a set of representative future climate projections for the Upper Indus Basin (UIB). Although a large number of GCM’s predictor sets are nowadays available in the CMIP5 archive, the issue of their reliability for specific regions must still be confronted. This situation makes it imperative to sort out the most appropriate, single or small-ensemble set of GCMs for the assessment of climate change impacts in a region. Here a set of different approaches is adopted and applied for a step-wise shortlist and selection of appropriate climate models for the UIB under two RCPs: RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5, based on, a) range of projected mean changes, b) range of projected extreme changes, and c) skill in reproducing the past climate. Furthermore, because of higher uncertainties in climate projection for high mountainous regions like the UIB, a wider range of future GCM climate projections is considered by using all possible future extreme scenarios (wet-warm, wet-cold, dry-warm, dry-cold). Based on this two-fold procedure, a limited number of climate models is pre-selected, out of which the final selection is done by assigning ranks to the weighted score for each of the mentioned selection criteria. The dynamically downscaled climate projections from the Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) available for the top-ranked GCMs are further statistically downscaled (bias-corrected) over the UIB. The downscaled projections up to year 2100 indicate temperature increases ranging between 2.3 °C and 9.0 °C and precipitation changes that range, from a slight annual increase of 2.2% under the drier scenarios, to as high as 15.9% for the wet scenarios. Moreover, for all scenarios, the future precipitation will be more extreme, as the probability of wet days will decrease, while, at the same time, the precipitation intensities will increase. The spatial distribution of the downscaled predictors across the UIB also shows similar patterns for all scenarios, with a distinct precipitation decrease over the south-eastern parts of the basin, but an increase in the northeastern parts. These two features are particularly intense for the “Dry-Warm” and the “Median” scenarios over the late 21st century.

This review seeks to explain four features of viral respiratory illnesses that have perplexed many generations of microbiologists: (1) the seasonal occurrence of viral respiratory illness; (2) the occurrence of respiratory illness year-round in the Tropics; (3) the rapid response of illness to temperature drops in temperate regions; (4) the explosive arrival and rapid termination of epidemics caused by influenza and other respiratory viruses. I discuss the inadequacy of the popular explanations of seasonality, and propose a simple hypothesis, called Temperature Dependent Viral Tropism (TD-VT), that is compatible with the above and other features of respiratory illness. TD-VT notes that viruses can often transmit themselves more effectively if they moderate their pathogenicity (thereby maintaining the mobility of their hosts) and suggests that most endemic respiratory viruses accomplish this by developing thermal sensitivity, in the sense that they normally replicate rapidly only at temperatures below normal body temperature. This allows them to confine themselves to the upper respiratory tract and to avoid infecting the lungs, heart, gut etc. I review biochemical and tissue-culture studies that found that “wild” respiratory viruses often show natural thermal sensitivity within a range that supports organ-specific tropism within the human body, and I discuss the evident tendency for viral strains to adapt their thermal sensitivity to their local climate and season. I also explore the possible misinterpretation of early experiments where volunteers were inoculated nasally with viral samples and then chilled. Next, I discuss the practical implications of the TD-VT hypothesis for preventing and treating respiratory illness. Finally, I note that the hypothesis is very testable and make suggestions for the most important experiments to increase our understanding of the seasonality and pathogenicity of viral respiratory illness.

Frequent flooding from sea-level rise (SLR) is one of the immediate climate change impacts affecting low-lying and exposed coastal communities. These communities rely upon the delivery of three-waters services for wastewater, stormwater and water supply. Due to ongoing SLR, managing these networks will increasingly be a challenge. This raises the issue of how local government can reconcile maintaining levels of service as the impacts of climate change and their uncertainties worsen over the coming decades (and beyond). Can they be adapted over time to retain levels of service or will they eventually require retreat and if so at what adaptation threshold? This paper explores managed retreat of two-waters infrastructure (wastewater and stormwater) as an adaptation option using a Dynamic Adaptive Pathway Planning (DAPP) approach. In the study, we use DAPP to frame the retreat of two-water networks, developing a combination of an area specific retreat strategy, pathway portfolios, retreat phases, land use change signaling and identify pathway conflicts and synergies. Repurposing retreated areas by utilizing Water Sensitive Urban Design (WSUD) options was found to extend retreat thresholds for adjacent areas. A systematic ’routine’ developed in this study provides a structured approach for managed retreat of two-water infrastructure with the aim to reduce future disruption from flooding, signal land use changes early and allow for gradual budget adjustments by the agencies to manage expenditure over time. This approach helps inform and improve the decision-making process for the agencies and the communities they serve, by providing a stepwise process that can be communicated spatially and visually, thereby making a retreat adaptation option more manageable.

The understanding of weather and climate extremes provides academics, decision makers, international development agencies, nongovernmental organizations and civil society the necessary information for monitoring and giving early warning to prevent or minimize the risks associated with weather related hazards. Different researches were carried out to provide vital information that will further enhance the assessment of vulnerability and its impacts. Lack of proper understanding of weather and climate extremes was realized to be responsible for the huge and devastating losses that could have being averted or minimized over the past decades. Different countries and institutions have put in place a number of ways to increase sensitization and awareness of weather extremes. This became necessary in order to reduce the losses associated with these extremes both on local and regional scales.

Climate change has emerged as one of the defining issues of the early 21st century. It is now more certain than ever and poses a serious threat to sustainable urban development. Climate change has many destructive effects on cities. Land subsidence, rising air pollutants, severe storms, dust and water scarcity are just some effects of this phenomenon in the urban area of ​​Tehran. Urban management must be prepared to deal with these effects and adopt policies to mitigate and adapt to climate change. One of these tools in urban planning is urban development plans. The plans can have a great impact on controlling and counteracting with the effects of climate change. In this research, using content analysis method, 6 dimensions and 31 indicators have been used to evaluate 8 city and region development plans of Tehran from the view of reflecting the effects of climate change. Indicators were scored after studying the content of the plans. Findings indicate that among the reviewed plans, the second and third five-year development plans of Tehran with 61.9% and 61.3% as the highest rate and plan to reduce air pollution in Tehran and the transportation master plan with 20.6% and 23.2%, respectively have the least attention to the effects of climate change. Also, among the indicators, the urban transportation sector with 54.3% as the highest and the energy sector with 20.5% have the least attention to mitigation and adaptation policies.

Earth's global surface temperature shows variability on an extended range of temporal scales and satisfies an emergent scaling symmetry. Recent studies indicate that scale invariance is not only a feature of the observed temperature fluctuations, but an inherent property of the temperature response to radiative forcing, and a principle that links the fast and slow climate responses. It provides a bridge between the decadal- and centennial-scale fluctuations in the instrumental temperature record, and the millennial-scale equilibration following perturbations in the radiative balance. In particular, the emergent scale invariance makes it possible to infer equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) from the observed relation between radiative forcing and global temperature in the instrumental era. This is verified in ensembles of Earth system models (ESMs), where the inferred values of ECS correlate strongly to estimates from idealized model runs. For the range of forcing data explored in this paper, the method gives best estimates of ECS between 2.3 and 3.4 K.