System Archetypes to Understand the Impacts of Climate Change on Rice Production: A Case Study in West Nusa Tenggara, Indonesia

Climate projections show that southern Indonesia such as West Nusa Tenggara is projected to experience a lower precipitation and higher temperatures. To date, research on climate change impact on Indonesian rice production yield is limited. As climate change is projected to decrease rainfall and to increase temperatures, this paper offers a qualitative analysis using system archetypes to understand the impacts of climate change on rice production. Two system archetypes are identified including Limits to Growth and Success to Successful. Both archetypes explain that rice production is hampered by high minimum temperature as photosynthesis output is decreased by increasing respiration. This paper shows that using a simple tool, system archetypes, we can describe the impacts of climate change on rice production. The outputs of this study such as a causal loop diagram and system archetypes can be a basis to develop a simulation model in understanding the impacts of climate change on main crops.