For more than ten years, Central Chile faces drought conditions, which impact crop production and quality, increasing food security risk. Under this scenario, implementing management practices that allow increasing water use efficiency is urgent. The study was carried out in kiwifruit trees, located in the O’Higgins region, Chile; for season 2018-2019 and 2019-2020. We evaluate nine vegetation indices in the VNIR and SWIR regions derived from Sentinel-2 (A/B) satellites to know how much variability in the canopy water status could explain. Over the study's site were installed sensors that continuously measure the leaf's turgor pressure (Yara Water-Sensor). A strong correlation between turgor pressure and vegetation indices was obtained with the Spearman's rho coefficient ($\rho$). However, the NIR range's indices were influenced by the vegetative development of the crop rather than its water status. Red-edge showed better performance as the vegetative growth did not affect it. It is necessary to expand the study to consider higher variability in kiwifruit's water conditions and incorporate the sensitivity of different wavelengths.

There is a lack of knowledge concerning the effects of ambient heat exposure on morbidity in Northern Europe. Therefore, this study aimed to evaluate the relationships of daily summer-time temperature and heatwaves with cardiorespiratory hospital admissions in the Helsinki metropolitan area, Finland. Methods: Time-series models adjusted for potential confounders such as air pollution were used to investigate the associations of daily temperature and heatwaves with cause-specific cardiorespiratory hospital admissions, during summer months of 2001-2017. Daily number of hospitalizations was obtained from the national hospital discharge register, weather information from the Finnish Meteorological Institute. Results: Increased daily temperature was associated with decreased risk of total respiratory hospital admissions and asthma. Heatwave days were associated with 20.5% (95% CI: 6.9, 35.9) increased risk of pneumonia admissions and during long or intense heatwaves also with total respiratory admissions in the oldest age group (≥ 75 years). There were also suggestive positive associations between heatwave days and admissions due to myocardial infarction and cerebrovascular diseases. In contrast, risk of arrhythmia admissions was decreased 20.8% (95% CI: 8.0, 31.8) during heatwaves. Conclusions: Heatwaves, rather than single hot days, are a health threat affecting the morbidity even in a Northern climate.

Conditional heteroskedastic financial time series are commonly modelled by (G)ARCH processes. ARCH(1) and GARCH were recently established in C[0,1] and L^2[0,1]. This article provides sufficient conditions for the existence of strictly stationary solutions, weak dependence and finite moments of (G)ARCH processes for any order in C[0,1] and L^p[0,1]. It deduces explicit asymptotic upper bounds of estimation errors for the shift term, the complete (G)ARCH operators and the projections of ARCH operators on finite-dimensional subspaces. The operator estimaton is based on Yule-Walker equations, and estimating the GARCH operators also involves a result estimating operators in invertible linear processes being valid beyond the scope of (G)ARCH. Moreover, our results regarding (G)ARCH can be transferred to functional AR(MA).

To minimise environmental impact, avoid regulatory penalties, and improve competitiveness, energy-intensive manufacturing firms require accurate forecasts of their energy consumption so that precautionary and mitigation measures can be taken. Deep learning is widely touted as a superior analytical technique to traditional artificial neural networks, machine learning, and other classical time series models due to its high dimensionality and problem solving capabilities. Despite this, research on its application in demand-side energy forecasting is limited. We compare two benchmarks (Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA), and an existing manual technique used at the case site) against three deep learning models (simple Recurrent Neural Networks (RNN), Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), and Gated Recurrent Unit (GRU)) and three machine learning models (Support Vector Regression (SVM), Random Forest, and K-Nearest Neighbors (KNN)) for short term load forecasting (STLF) using data from a Brazilian thermoplastic resin manufacturing plant. We use the grid search method to identify the best configurations for each model, and then use Diebold-Mariano testing to confirm the results. Results suggests that the legacy approach used at the case site is the worst performing, and that the GRU model outperformed all other models tested.

The present study analyzed light emitting diodes (LEDs) as an output load and used a Taylor series to describe the characteristic curve based on the exponential characteristic of voltage and current. A prototype circuit of a flyback LED driver system was established to verify whether the theory is consistent with actual results. This study focused on the exponential relationship of LED voltage and current. Conventional simulations usually used linear models to present LED loads. However, the linear model resulted in considerable error between simulation and actual characteristics. Therefore, this study employed a Taylor series to describe the nonlinear characteristic of an LED load. Through precise calculations with Mathcad computation software, the error was effectively reduced. Moreover, the process clarified the influence of temperature on LEDs, which benefited the characteristic analysis of the entire system. Finally, a realized circuit of 120-W flyback LED drivers was established for conducting theory verification, including theoretic analysis and evaluation of the system design process of the flyback converter. The circuit simulation software SIMPLIS was used to demonstrate the system model, which enabled quick understanding of the system framework established in this study. Regarding LEDs, a commercially available aluminum luminaire was used as the output load. The measured results of the actual circuit and the simulation results were remarkably consistent. For the same system at the same temperature, the error between the simulation and actual results was less than 3%, which proved the reliability of the Taylor series simulation.

We discuss methods for calculation of critical indices and amplitudes from the perturbative expansions. Several important examples of the Stokes flow through 2D and 3D channels are brought up. Power series for the permeability derived for small values of amplitude are employed to calculation of various critical exponents in the regime of large amplitudes. Special nonlinear approximations valid for arbitrary values of the wave amplitude are derived from the expansions. The technique developed for critical phenomena is applied then for relaxation phenomena. The concept of time-translation invariance is discussed, its spontaneous violation and restoration considered. Emerging probabilistic patterns correspond to a local breakdown of time-translation invariance. Their evolution leads to the timetranslation symmetry complete (or partial) restoration. We estimate typical time extent, amplitude and direction for such restorative process. The new technique is based on explicit introduction of origin in time. After some transformations we come to the exponential and generalized, exponential-type solution with explicit finite time scale, which was only implicit in initial parametrization with polynomial approximation. The concept of crash as a relaxation phenomenon, consisting of time-translation invariance breaking and restoration, is put forward. COVID-19 related mini-crash in the time series for Shanghai Composite is discussed as an illustration.

This paper is a slightly modified, abridged version of a previous work "Parametric Gevrey asymptotics in two complex time variables through truncated Laplace transforms'' motivated by our contribution in the conference "Formal and Analytic Solutions of Diff. (differential, partial differential, difference, q-difference, q-difference-differential) Equations on the Internet'' (FASnet20). It aims to clarify and give further detail at some crucial points concerning the asymptotic behavior of the solutions of the problems studied in that work.

Forest fires are part of a set of natural disasters that have always affected regions of the world typically characterized by a tropical climate with long periods of drought. However, due to climate change in recent years, other regions of our planet have also been affected by this phenomenon, never seen before. One of them is certainly the Italian peninsula, and especially the regions of southern Italy. For this reason, the scientific community, as well as remote sensing one, is highly concerned in developing reliable techniques to provide useful support to the competent authorities. In particular, three specific tasks have been carried out in this work: (i) fire risk prevention, (ii) active fire detection, and (iii) post-fire area assessment. To accomplish these analyses, the capability of a set of spectral indices, derived from spaceborne remote sensing (RS) data, is assessed to monitor the forest fires. The spectral indices are obtained from Sentinel-2 multispectral images of the European Space Agency (ESA), which are free of charge and openly accessible. Moreover, the twin Sentinel-2 sensors allow to overcome some restrictions on time delivery and observation repeat time. The performance of the proposed analyses were assessed experimentally to monitor the forest fires occurred in two specific study areas during the summer of 2017: the volcano Vesuvius, near Naples, and the Lattari mountains, near Sorrento (both in Campania, Italy).

This paper presents a concise exploration of several analytical methods for extracting the parameters of the single-diode model (SDM) of a photovoltaic (PV) module under standard test conditions (STC). The paper investigates six methods and presents the detailed mathematical analysis leading to the development of each method. To evaluate the performance of these methods, MATLAB-based software has been developed and deployed to synthesize the results of each method when used to extract the SDM parameters of various PV test modules of different PV technologies. Similar software has also been developed to extract the same parameters using well-established numerical and iterative techniques. A comparison is subsequently made between the synthesized results and those obtained using numerical and iterative methods. The comparison indicates that in spite of the fact that analytical methods may involve fair amount of approximations, their accuracy can be comparable to that of their numerical and iterative counterparts, with the added advantage of significant reduction in computational complexity, and without the initialization and convergence difficulties, which are normally associated with numerical methods.

Feature selection is a crucial step to overcome the curse of dimensionality problem in data mining. This work proposes Recursive k-means Silhouette Elimination (RkSE) as a new unsupervised feature selection algorithm to reduce dimensionality in univariate and multivariate time-series datasets. Where k-means clustering is applied recursively to select the cluster representative features, following a unique application of silhouette measure for each cluster and a user-defined threshold as the feature selection or elimination criteria. The proposed method is evaluated on a hydraulic test rig, multi sensor readings in two different fashions: (1) Reduce the dimensionality in a multivariate classification problem using various classifiers of different functionalities. (2) Classification of univariate data in a sliding window scenario, where RkSE is used as a window compression method, to reduce the window dimensionality by selecting the best time points in a sliding window. Moreover, the results are validated using 10-fold cross validation technique. As well as, compared to the results when the classification is pulled directly with no feature selection applied. Additionally, a new taxonomy for k-means based feature selection methods is proposed. The experimental results and observations in the two comprehensive experiments demonstrated in this work reveal the capabilities and accuracy of the proposed method.

Many clustering approaches succeed in pattern segmentation in many applications. This unsupervised segmentation should be effective to reduce an expert labelling time: i.e, they must be able to detect the number of patterns and identify them in a sequence or map with the right cuts. Several direct and hierarchical clustering approaches are compared for this task. A divisive spectral clustering architecture with a no-cut criteria is also proposed. This new algorithm achieves promise segmentation of spatial UCI databases and marine time series compared to other approaches.

A vast majority of the countries is under the economic and health crises due to the current epidemic of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). The present study analyzes the COVID-19 using time series, which is an essential gizmo for knowing the enlargement of infection and its changing behavior, especially the trending model. We have considered an autoregressive model with a non-linear time trend component that approximately converted into the linear trend using the spline function. The spline function split the COVID-19 series into different piecewise segments between respective knots and fitted the linear time trend. First, we obtain the number of knots with its locations in the COVID-19 series and then the estimation of the best-fitted model parameters are determined under Bayesian setup. The results advocate that the proposed model/methodology is a useful procedure to convert the non-linear time trend into a linear pattern of newly coronavirus case for various countries in the pandemic situation of COVID-19.

IoT system becomes hot topic nowadays for smart home, IoT helps devices to communicate together without human intervention inside home, so it is offering many challenges. A new smart home IoT platform powered using electromagnetic energy harvesting is proposed in this paper. It contains a high gain transmitted antenna array and efficient circular polarized array rectenna system to harvest enough power from any direction to increase life time of the batteries used in IoT system. Optimized energy consumption, the software with adopting the Zigbee protocol of the sensor node and low power microcontroller are used to operate in lower power modes. The proposed system has an 84.6 days lifetime which is approximately 10 times the lifetime for similar system. On the other hand, the proposed power management circuit operated at 0.3 V DC to boost the voltage to ~3.7V from radio frequency energy harvesting and manage battery level to increase the batteries lifetime. A predictive indoor environment monitoring system is designed based on a novel hybrid system to provide a non-static plan, approve energy consumption and avoiding failure of sensor nodes in smart home.

Terrestrial laser scanning (TLS) has been adopted as a feasible technique to digitize trees and forest stands, providing accurate information on tree and forest structural attributes. However, there is limited understanding on how a variety of forest structural changes can be quantified using TLS in boreal forest conditions. In this study, we assessed the accuracy and feasibility of TLS in quantifying changes in the structure of boreal forests. We collected TLS data and field reference from 37 sample plots in 2014 (T1) and 2019 (T2). Tree stems typically have planar, vertical, and cylindrical characteristics in a point cloud, and thus we applied surface normal filtering, point cloud clustering, and RANSAC-cylinder filtering to identify these geometries and to characterize trees and forest stands at both time points. The results strengthened the existing knowledge that TLS has the capacity to characterize trees and forest stands in space and showed that TLS could characterize structural changes in time in boreal forest conditions. Root-mean-square-errors (RMSEs) in the estimates for changes in the tree attributes were 0.99-1.22 cm for diameter at breast height (Δdbh), 44.14-55.49 cm2 for basal area (Δg), and 1.91-4.85 m for tree height (Δh). In general, tree attributes were estimated more accurately for Scots pine trees, followed by Norway spruce and broadleaved trees. At the forest stand level, an RMSE of 0.60-1.13 cm was recorded for changes in basal area-weighted mean diameter (ΔDg), 0.81-2.26 m for changes in basal area-weighted mean height (ΔHg), 1.40-2.34 m2/ha for changes in mean basal area (ΔG), and 74-193 n/ha for changes in the number of trees per hectare (ΔTPH). The plot-level accuracy was higher in Scots pine-dominated sample plots than in Norway spruce-dominated and mixed-species sample plots. TLS-derived tree and forest structural attributes at time points T1 and T2 differed significantly from each other (p < 0.05). If there was an increase or decrease in dbh, g, h, height of the crown base, crown ratio, Dg, Hg, or G recorded in the field, a similar outcome was achieved by using TLS. Our results provided new information on the feasibility of TLS for the purposes of forest ecosystem growth monitoring.

The work is devoted to the study of a family of linear initial value problems of partial differential equations in the complex domain, dealing with two complex time variables. The use of a truncated Laplace-like transformation in the construction of the analytic solution allows to overcome a small divisor phenomenon arising from the geometry of the problem and represents an alternative approach to the one proposed in a recent work by the first two authors. The result leans on the application of a fixed point argument and the classical Ramis-Sibuya theorem.

While the COVID-19 outbreak was reported to first originate from Wuhan, China, it has been declared as a Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) on 30 January 2020 by WHO, and it has spread to over 180 countries by the time of this paper was being composed. As the disease spreads around the globe, it has evolved into a worldwide pandemic, endangering the state of global public health and becoming a serious threat to the global community. To combat and prevent the spread of the disease, all individuals should be well-informed of the rapidly changing state of COVID-19. In the endeavor of accomplishing this objective, a COVID-19 real-time analytical tracker has been built to provide the latest status of the disease and relevant analytical insights. The real-time tracker is designed to cater to the general audience without advanced statistical aptitude. It aims to communicate insights through various straightforward and concise data visualizations that are supported by sound statistical foundations and reliable data sources. This paper aims to discuss the major methodologies which are utilized to generate the insights displayed on the real-time tracker, which include real-time data retrieval, normalization techniques, ARIMA time-series forecasting, and logistic regression models. In addition to introducing the details and motivations of the utilized methodologies, the paper additionally features some key discoveries that have been derived in regard to COVID-19 using the methodologies.

Through the half-unit circle area computation using the integration of the corresponding curve power series representation, we deduce a slow converging positive infinite series to $\pi$. However, by studying the remainder of that series we establish sufficiently close inequalities with equivalent lower and upper bound terms allowing us to estimate, more precisely, how the series approaches $\pi$. We use the obtained inequalities to compute up to four-digit denominator, what are in this sense, the best rational numbers that can replace $\pi$. It turns out that the well-known convergents of the continued fraction of $\pi$, $22/7$ and $355/113$ called, respectively, Yuel\"{u} and Mil\"{u} in China are the only ones found. Thus we apply a similar process to find rational estimations to $\pi+e$ where $e$ is taken as the power series of the exponential function evaluated at $1$. For rational numbers with denominators less than $2000$, the convergent $920/157$ of the continued fraction of $\pi+e$ turns out to be the only rational number of this type.

Satellite communication (Satcom) is an artificial geostationary satellite that facilitates a wide range of telecommunications. Considering its quality of service (QoS) and security is crucial in government/military applications. The most challenging situation for efficient Satcom is radio frequency interference (RFI) environment. Thus, it is necessary to ensure that transmissions are incorruptible or at least sense the quality of its spectrum. This paper presents a new method to recognize received signal characteristics using a hierarchical classification in a multi-layer perceptron neural network. We consider signal modulation and the type of RFI as the characteristics of a real-time video stream transmitted in the direct broadcast satellite. Four different modulation types are investigated in this study. Moreover, the combination of the communication signal with various kinds of interference and their effects on the classification method widely have been analyzed. Besides, two robust feature selection techniques have been developed to reduce the data-set dimensional, which leads to optimizing the classification process. The results show that the Genetic Algorithm (GA) slightly outperforms Principal Component Analysis (PCA) for feature selection. Furthermore, the robustness of the proposed techniques is assessed to detect unknown signals at different signal to noise ratios.

A nonlinear singularly perturbed Cauchy problem with confluent fuchsian singularities is examined. This problem involves coefficients with polynomial dependence in time. A similar initial value problem with logarithmic reliance in time has been investigated by the author in a recent work, for which sets of holomorphic inner and outer solutions were built up and expressed as a Laplace transform with logarithmic kernel. Here, a family of holomorphic inner solutions are constructed by means of exponential transseries expansions containing infinitely many Laplace transforms with special kernel. Furthermore, asymptotic expansions of Gevrey type for these solutions relatively to the perturbation parameter are established.

We present and benchmark FilterNet, a flexible deep learning architecture for time series classification tasks, such as activity recognition via multichannel sensor data. It adapts popular CNN and CNN-LSTM motifs which have excelled in activity recognition benchmarks, implementing them in a many-to-many architecture to markedly improve frame-by-frame accuracy, event segmentation accuracy, model size, and computational efficiency. We propose several model variants, evaluate them alongside other published models using the Opportunity benchmark dataset, demonstrate the effect of model ensembling and of altering key parameters, and quantify the quality of the models’ segmentation of discrete events. We also offer recommendations for use and suggest potential model extensions. FilterNet advances the state of the art in all measured accuracy and speed metrics on the benchmarked dataset, and it can be extensively customized for other applications.

Background: Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic are causing significant damages to many nations. For mitigating its risk, Japan’s Prime Minister called on all elementary, junior high and high schools nationwide to close beginning March 1, 2020. However, its effectiveness in decreasing disease burden has not been investigated. Methods: We used daily data on the report of COVID-19 and coronavirus infection incidence in Japan until March 31, 2020. Time series analysis were conducted using Bayesian method. Local linear trend models with interventional effect were constructed for number of newly reported cases of COVID-19, including asymptomatic infections. We considered that the effects of intervention start to appear 9 days after the school closure; i.e., on March 9. Results: The intervention of school closure did not appear to decrease the incidence of coronavirus infection. If the effectiveness of school closure began on March 9, mean coefficient α for effectiveness of the measure was calculated to be 0.08 (95% credible interval -0.36 to 0.65), and the actual reported cases were more than predicted, yet with rather wide credible interval. Sensitivity analyses using different dates also showed similar results. Conclusions: School closure carried out in Japan did not show the effectiveness to mitigate the transmission of novel coronavirus infection.

Modern energy systems collect high volumes of data that can provide valuable information about energy consumption. Electric companies can now use historical data to make informed decisions on energy production by forecasting the expected demand. Many deep learning models have been proposed to deal with these type of time series forecasting problems. Deep neural networks, such as recurrent or convolutional, can automatically capture complex patterns in time series data and provide accurate predictions. In particular, Temporal Convolutional Networks (TCN) are a specialised architecture that has advantages over recurrent networks for forecasting tasks. TCNs are able to extract long-term patterns using dilated causal convolutions and residual blocks, and can also be more efficient in terms of computation time. In this work, we propose a TCN-based deep learning model to improve the predictive performance in energy demand forecasting. Two energy-related time series with data from Spain have been studied: the national electric demand, and the power demand at charging stations for electric vehicles. An extensive experimental study has been conducted, involving more than 1900 models with different architectures and parametrisations. The TCN proposal outperforms the forecasting accuracy of Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) recurrent networks, which are considered the state-of-the-art in the field.

Accurate inundation maps for flooded wetlands and rivers are a critical resource for their management and conservation. In this paper we automate a method (thresholding of the short-wave infrared band) for classifying inundation, using Landsat imagery and Google Earth Engine. We demonstrate the method in the Okavango Delta, northern Botswana, a complex case study due to the spectral overlap between inundated areas covered with aquatic vegetation and dryland vegetation classes on satellite imagery. Inundation classifications in the Okavango Delta have predominately been implemented on broad spatial resolution images. We present the longest time series to date (1990-2019) of inundation maps at high spatial resolution (30m) for the Okavango Delta. We validated the maps using image-based and in situ data accuracy assessments, with accuracy ranging from 91.5 - 98.1%. Use of Landsat imagery resulted in consistently lower estimates of inundation extent than previous studies, likely due to the increased number of mixed pixels that occur when using broad spatial resolution imagery, which can lead to overestimations of the size of inundated areas. We provide the inundation maps and Google Earth Engine code for public use.

Undoubtedly the Wageningen B-screw Series is the most widely used systematic propeller series. It is very popular to preselect propeller dimensions during the preliminary design stage before performing a more thorough optimization, but in the smaller end of the market it is often used to merely select the final propeller. Over time the originally measured data sets were faired and scaled to a uniform Reynolds number of 2·10⁶ to increase the reliability of the series. With the advent of the computer, polynomials for the thrust and torque values were calculated based on the available data sets. The measured data are typically presented in the well-known open-water curves of thrust and torque coefficients K_T and K_Q versus the advance coefficient J. Changing the presentation from these diagrams to efficiency maps reveals some unsuspected and surprising behaviours, such as multiple optima when optimizing for efficiency or even no optimum at all for certain conditions. These artefacts get more pronounced at higher pitch to diameter ratios and low blade numbers. The present work builds upon the paper presented by the author at the AMT’17 and smp’19 conferences and now includes the extended efficiency maps, as suggested by Danckwardt, for all propellers of the Wageningen B-screw Series.

Risk modelling along with multi-objective optimization problems have been at theepicenter of attention for supply chain managers. In this paper, we introduce a datasetfor risk modelling in sophisticated supply chain networks based on formal mathematical models. We have discussed the methodology and simulation tools used to synthesize the dataset. Additionally, the underlying mathematical models are discussed in granular details along with providing directions to conducting statistical analyses or neural machine learning models. The simulation is performed using MATLAB ™Simulink and the models are illustrated as well.

We propose a novel tensor-based formalism for inferring causal structures from time series. An information theoretical analysis of transfer entropy (TE), shows that TE results from transmission of information over a set of communication channels. Tensors are the mathematical equivalents of these multi-channel causal channels. A multi-channel causal channel is a generalization of a discrete memoryless channel (DMC). We consider a DMC as a single-channel causal channel. Investigation of a system comprising three variables shows that in our formalism, bivariate analysis suffices to differentiate between direct and indirect relations. For this to be true, we have to combine the output of multi-channel causal channels with the output of single-channel causal channels. We can understand this result when we consider the role of noise. Subsequent transmission of information over noisy channels can never result in less noisy transmission overall. This implies that a Data Processing Inequality (DPI) exists for transfer entropy.

Inland lake variations are considered sensitive indicators of global climate change. However, human activity is playing as a more and more important role in inland lake area variations. Therefore, it is critical to identify whether anthropogenic activity or natural event is playing as the dominant factor in inland lake surface area change. In this study, we proposed a Douglas-Peucker simplification algorithm and bend simplification algorithm combined method to locate major lake surface area disturbances; these disturbances were then characterized to extract the time series change features according to documented records; and the disturbances were finally classified into anthropogenic or natural. We took the nine lakes in Yunnan Province as test sites, a 31 years long (from 1987 to 2017) time series Landsat TM/OLI images and HJ-1A/1B used as data sources, the official records was used as references to aid the feature extraction and disturbance identification accuracy. Results of our method for both disturbance location and the disturbance identification could be concluded as follows: 1) The method can accurately locate the main lake changing events based on the time series lake surface area curve. The accuracy of this model for segmenting the lake area time series curves in our study area was 95.24%. 2) Our proposed method achieved an overall accuracy of 91.67%, with F-score of 94.67 for anthropogenic disturbances and F-score of 85.71 for natural disturbances. 3) According to our results, lakes in Yunnan Provence, China, have undergone extensive disturbances, and the human-induced disturbances occurred almost twice as often as natural disturbances, indicating intensified disturbances caused by human activities. This inland lake area disturbance identification method is expected to uncover whether a disturbance to inland lake area is human activity-induced or natural event.

A new framework in quantum chemistry has been proposed recently ("An approach to first principles electronic structure calculation by symbolic-numeric computation'' by A. Kikuchi). It is based on the modern technique of computational algebraic geometry, viz. the symbolic computation of polynomial systems. Although this framework belongs to molecular orbital theory, it fully adopts the symbolic method. The analytic integrals in the secular equations are approximated by the polynomials. The indeterminate variables of polynomials represent the wave-functions and other parameters for the optimization, such as atomic positions and contraction coefficients of atomic orbitals. Then the symbolic computation digests and decomposes the polynomials into a tame form of the set of equations, to which numerical computations are easily applied. The key technique is Grröbner basis theory, by which one can investigate the electronic structure by unraveling the entangled relations of the involved variables. In this article, at first, we demonstrate the featured result of this new theory. Next, we expound the mathematical basics concerning computational algebraic geometry, which are necessitated in our study. We will see how highly abstract ideas of polynomial algebra would be applied to the solution of the definite problems in quantum mechanics. We solve simple problems in "quantum chemistry in algebraic variety'' by means of algebraic approach. Finally, we review several topics related to polynomial computation, whereby we shall have an outlook for the future direction of the research.

We consider a family of nonlinear singularly perturbed PDEs whose coefficients involve a logarithmic dependence in time with confluent Fuchsian singularities that unfold an irregular singularity at the origin and rely on a single perturbation parameter. We exhibit two distinguished finite sets of holomorphic solutions, so-called outer and inner solutions, by means of a Laplace transform with special kernel and Fourier integral. We analyze the asymptotic expansions of these solutions relatively to the perturbation parameter and show that they are (at most) of Gevrey order 1 for the first set of solutions and of some Gevrey order that hinges on the unfolding of the irregular singularity for the second.

An application of deep convolutional neural network and recurrence plot for financial market movement prediction is presented. Though it is challenging and subjective to interpret its information, the pattern formed by a recurrence plot provide a useful insight into the dy- namical system. We used a recurrence plot of seven financial time series to train a deep neural network for financial market movement predic- tion. Our approach is tested on our dataset and achieved an average of 53.25% classification accuracy. The result suggests that a well trained deep convolutional neural network can learn a recurrence plot and pre- dict a financial market direction.

Hand and arm gesture recognition using radio frequency (RF) sensing modality proves valuable in man-machine interface and smart environment. In this paper, we use time series analysis method for accurately measuring the similarity of the micro-Doppler (MD) signatures between the training and test data, thus providing improved gesture classification. We characterize the MD signatures by the maximum instantaneous Doppler frequencies depicted in the spectrograms. In particular, we apply the dynamic time warping (DTW) method and compare its performance with that of the long short-term memory (LSTM) network. Both methods take into account the values as well as the temporal evolution and trends of time series data. It is shown that the DTW method achieves high gesture classification rates and is robust to time misalignment.

The search for periodic signals from blazars has become an actively pursued field of research in recent years. This is because periodic signals bring us information about the processes occurring near the innermost regions of blazars, which are mostly inaccessible to our direct view. Such signals provide insights into some of the extreme conditions that take place in the vicinity of supermassive black holes that lead to the launch of the relativistic jets. In addition, studies of characteristic timescales in blazar light curves shed light on some of the challenging issues in blazar physics that includes disk-jet connection, strong gravity near fast rotating supermassive black holes and release of gravitational waves from binary supermassive black hole systems. However, a number of issues associated with the search for quasi-periodic oscillations (QPOs) in blazars e.g., red-noise dominance, modest significance of the detection, periodic modulation lasting for only a couple of cycles and their transient nature, make it difficult to estimate the true significance of the detection. Consequently, it also becomes difficult to make meaningful inferences about the nature of the on-going processes. In this proceedings, results of study focused on searching for QPOs in a number of blazar multi-frequency light curves are summarized. The time series analyses of long term observations of the blazars revealed the presence of year-timescale QPOs in the sources including OJ 287 (optical), Mrk 501 (gamma-ray), J1043+2408 (radio) and PKS 0219 -164 (radio). As likely explanations, we discuss a number of scenarios including binary supermassive black hole systems, Lense–Thirring precession, and jet precession.

Advances in the availability of multitemporal and global built-/human-settlements datasets as derived from Remote Sensing (RS) can now provide globally consistent definitions of “human-settlement” at unprecedented spatial fineness. Yet, these data only provide a time-series of past extents and urban growth/expansion models have not had parallel advances at high-spatial resolution. We present a flexible modelling framework for producing annual built-settlement extents in the near future past last observed extents as provided by RS-based data. Using a random forest and autoregressive temporal models with short time-series of built-settlement extents and subnational level data, we predict annual 100m resolution binary settlement extents five years beyond the last observations. We applied this framework within varying contexts and predicted annual extents from 2010 to 2015. We found that our model framework preformed consistently across all sample countries and, when compared to time-specific imagery, demonstrated the capacity to capture human-settlement missed by the input time-series and validation extents. When comparing building footprints of small settlements to forecast extents, we saw that the modelling framework had a 12 percent increase in ground-truth accuracy. This framework shows promise for predicting near-future settlement extents, and provides a foundation for forecasts further into the future.

Today massive amounts of sequenced metagenomic and -transcriptomic data from different ecological niches and environmental locations are available. Scientific progress depends critically on methods that allow extracting useful information from the various types of sequence data. Here, we will first discuss types of information contained in the various flavours of biological sequence data, and how this information can be interpreted to increase our scientific knowledge and understanding. We argue that a mechanistic understanding is required to consistently interpret experimental observations, and that this understanding is greatly facilitated by the generation and analysis of dynamic mathematical models. We conclude that, in order to construct mathematical models and to test mechanistic hypotheses, time-series data is of critical importance. We review diverse techniques to analyse time-series data and discuss various approaches by which time-series of biological sequence data was successfully used to derive and test mechanistic hypotheses. Analysing the bottlenecks of current strategies in the extraction of knowledge and understanding from data, we conclude that combined experimental and theoretical efforts should be implemented as early as possible during the planning phase of individual experiments and scientific research projects.

Mapping forest composition using multiseasonal optical time series is still challenging. Highly contrasted results are reported from one study to another suggesting that drivers of classification errors are still under-explored. We evaluated the performances of single-year Formosat-2 time series to discriminate tree species in temperate forests in France and investigated how predictions vary statistically and spatially across multiple years. Our objective was to better estimate the impact of spatial autocorrelation in the validation data on measurement accuracy and to understand which drivers in the time series are responsible for classification errors. The experiments were based on ten Formosat-2 image time series irregularly acquired during the seasonal vegetation cycle from 2006 to 2014. Due to lot of clouds in the year 2006, an alternative 2006 time series using only cloud-free images has been added. Thirteen tree species were classified in each single-year dataset based on the SVM algorithm. The performances were assessed using a spatial leave-one-out cross validation (SLOO-CV) strategy, thereby guaranteeing full independence of the validation samples, and compared with standard non-spatial leave-one-out cross-validation (LOO-CV). The results show relatively close statistical performances from one year to the next despite the differences between the annual time series. Good agreements between years were observed in monospecific tree plantations of broadleaf species versus high disparity in other forests composed of different species. A strong positive bias in the accuracy assessment (up to 0.4 of Overall Accuracy) was also found when spatial dependence in the validation data was not removed. Using the SLOO-CV approach, the average OA values per year ranged from 0.48 for 2006 to 0.60 for 2013, which satisfactorily represents the spatial instability of species prediction between years.

The differential transformation, an approach based on Taylor's theorem, is proposed as convenient for finding exact or approximate solution to the initial value problem with multiple Caputo fractional derivatives of generally non-commensurate orders. The multi-term differential equation is first transformed into a multi-order system and then into a system of recurrence relations for coefficients of formal fractional power series. The order of the fractional power series is discussed in relation to orders of derivatives appearing in the original equation. Application of the algorithm to an initial value problem results in a reliable and expected outcome.

Anomaly detection is an active area of research with numerous methods and applications. This survey reviews the state-of-the-art of data-driven anomaly detection techniques and their application to the the aviation domain. After a brief introduction to the main traditional data-driven methods for anomaly detection, we review the recent advances in the area of neural networks, deep learning and temporal-logic based learning. We cover especially unsupervised techniques applicable to time series data because of their relevance to the aviation domain, where the lack of labeled data is the most usual case, and the nature of flight trajectories and sensor data is sequential, or temporal. The advantages and disadvantages of each method are presented in terms of computational efficiency and detection efficacy. The second part of the survey explores the application of anomaly detection techniques to aviation and their contributions to the improvement of the safety and performance of flight operations and aviation systems. As far as we know, some of the presented methods have not yet found an application in the aviation domain. We review applications ranging from the identification of significant operational events in air traffic operations to the prediction of potential aviation system failures for predictive maintenance.

In Portugal, cork oak (Quercus suber L.) stands cover 737 Mha, being the most predominant species of the montado agroforestry system, contributing for the economic, social and environmental development of the country. Cork oak decline is a known problem since the late years of the 19th century that has recently worsen. The causes of oak decline seem to be a result of slow and cumulative processes, although the role of each environmental factor is not yet established. The availability of Sentinel-2 high spatial and temporal resolution dense time series enables gradual processes monitoring. These processes can be monitored using spectral vegetation indices (VI) once their temporal dynamics are expected to be related with green biomass and photosynthetic efficiency. The Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) is sensitive to structural canopy changes, however it tends to saturate at moderate-to-dense canopies. Modified VI have been proposed to incorporate the reflectance in the red-edge spectral region, which is highly sensitive to chlorophyll content while largely unaffected by structural properties. In this research, in-situ data on the location and vitality status of cork oak trees are used to assess the correlation between chlorophyll indices (CI) and NDVI time series trends and cork oak vitality at the tree level. Preliminary results seem to be promising since differences between healthy and unhealthy (diseased/dead) trees were observed.

The future of the Colorado River water supply (WS) affects millions of people and the U.S. economy. A recent study suggested a cross-basin correlation between the Colorado River and its neighboring Great Salt Lake (GSL). Following that study, the feasibility of using the previously developed multi-year prediction of the GSL water level to forecast the Colorado River WS was tested. Time-series models were developed to predict the changes in WS out to 10 years. Regressive methods and the GSL water level data were used for the depiction of decadal variability of the Colorado River WS. Various time-series models suggest a decline in the 10-year-averaged WS since 2013 before starting to increase around 2020. Comparison between this WS prediction and the WS projection published in a 2012 government report (derived from climate models) reveals a widened imbalance between supply and demand by 2020. Further research to update similar multi-year prediction of the Colorado River WS is needed. Such information could aid in management decision making in the face of future water shortages.

A method for measuring the mechanical parameters of viscoelastic polymers by nanoindentation technology was proposed and verified. Through the mechanical response of load-displacement curves at different loading rates, then creep compliances and relaxation modulus were fitted. Polyimide thin film was employed in this research and experiments for five different loading rates were conducted. The fitting load-displacement loading curves obtained by the inversion method were identical to the experimental curves at five different loading rates，confirming the validity of the method. Moreover, with the loading rates increased，the fitting curves were more consistent commensurately with the nanoindentation experiment. DMA experiments were tested, and the generalized Kelvin/ Maxwell model were used for fitting experiment data. Results from DMA tests generally agree well with data from nanoindentation method, thereby verifying the feasibility of the method. The Prony series obtained by the two methods were used to simulate the creep experiments, which further verified the method.

The evaluation of geometric defects is necessary in order to maintain the integrity of structures over time. These assessments are designed to detect damages of structures and ideally help inspectors to estimate the remaining life of structures. Current methodologies for monitoring structural systems, while providing useful information about the current state of a structure, are limited in the monitoring of defects over time and in linking them to predictive simulation. This paper presents a new approach to the predictive modeling of geometric defects. A combination of segmented from point clouds are parametrized using the convex hull algorithm to extract features from detected defects, and a stochastic dynamic model is then adapted to these features to model the evolution of the hull over time. Describing a defect in terms of its parameterized hull enables consistent temporal tracking for predictive purposes, while implicitly reducing data dimensionality and complexity as well. In this study, 2D point clouds analogous to information derived from point clouds were first generated over simulated life-cycles. The evolutions of point cloud hull parameterizations were modeled as stochastic dynamical processes via autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) and vectorized autoregression (VAR) and compared against ground truth. The results indicate that this convex hull approach provides consistent and accurate representations of defect evolution across a range of defect topologies and is reasonably robust to noisy measurements, however assumptions regarding the underlying dynamical process play a significant the role in predictive accuracy. The results were then validated on experimental data from fatigue testing with high accuracy. Longer term, the results of this work will support finite element model updating for predictive analysis of structural capacity.

The complexity of Mixed-Integer Linear Programs (MILPs) increases with the number of nodes in energy system models. An increasing complexity constitutes a high computational load that can limit the scale of the energy system model. Especially in microgrid optimisation problems with multiple buildings and energy systems with a number of rival supply, distribution and storage technologies, methods are sought to reduce this complexity. In this paper, we present a new 2-Level Approach to MILP energy system models that determine the system design through a combination of continuous and discrete decisions. On the first level, data reduction methods are used to determine the discrete design decisions in a simplified solution space. Those decisions are then fixed, and on the second level the full dataset is used to extract the exact scaling of the chosen technologies. The performance of the new 2-Level Approach is evaluated for a case study of an urban energy system with six buildings and an island system based on a high share of renewable energy technologies. The results of the studies show a high accuracy with respect to the total annual costs, chosen system structure, installed capacities and peak load with the 2-Level Approach compared to the results of a single level optimization. The computational load is thereby reduced by more than one order of magnitude, while a significantly higher accuracy is reached in comparison to the common time series aggregation approach.

The study of order patterns of three equally spaced values $x_t,x_{t+d},x_{t+2d}$ in a time series is a powerful tool. The lag $d$ is changed in a wide range so that differences of frequencies of order patterns become autocorrelation functions. Similar to a spectrogram in speech analysis, four ordinal autocorrelation functions are used to visualize big data series, as for instance heart and brain activity over many hours. The method applies to real data without preprocessing, outliers and missing data do not matter. On the theoretical side, we study properties of order correlation functions and show that the four autocorrelation functions are orthogonal in a certain sense. An analysis of variance of a modified permutation entropy can be performed with four variance components associated with the functions.

Advances in DNA sequencing technology are facilitating genomic analyses of unprecedented scope and scale, widening the gap between our abilities to generate and fully exploit biological sequence data. Comparable analytical challenges are encountered in other data-intensive fields involving sequential data, such as signal processing, in which dimensionality reduction (i.e., compression) methods are routinely used to lessen the computational burden of analyses. In this work we explore the application of dimensionality reduction methods to numerically represent high-throughput sequence data for three important biological applications of virus sequence data: reference-based mapping, short sequence classification and de novo assembly. Despite using highly compressed sequence transformations to accelerate the processes, our sequence processing approach yielded comparable accuracy to existing approaches, and are ideally suited for sequences originating from highly diverse virus populations. We demonstrate the application of our methodology to both synthetic and real viral pathogen sequence data. Our results show that the use of highly compressed sequence approximations can provide accurate results and that useful analytical performance can be retained and even enhanced through appropriate dimensionality reduction of sequence data.

The aim of this research work was to provide model for predicting stock volatility in Nigeria Stock market. To achieve this, monthly data for Nigerian stock exchange, Exchange rate, Share index and inflation rate was collected for a period of January 1990 to December 2016.The descriptive statistics revealed these variables to exhibit volatility as a characteristics of financial time –varying series. DCC Model was fitted, were the coefficients for all the parameters and that of the correlation-Targeting (rho_21) are both negative and positive and tend very close to 1 and -1, indicating that high persistence in the conditional variances. The Model DCC, satisfied the properties of a good model of conditional mean and variance of the confidential Interval (C.I) of 1 and -1, that is, the conditional variances are finites and their series are strictly stationary. This therefore implies that the Nigerian Stock Exchange, Exchange rate, share index and Inflation rate will experience a non-steady shock in the Stock market. However Each of these variables have different length of recovery (volatility half- life) ranging from 1.5month, 6.5months, 6months to 2,4months for stock exchange, exchange rate, share index and inflation rate respectively. By implication, the volatility of these variables had a long memory, persistence and mean-reverting.

Research within the field of hydrology often focuses on comparing stochastic to machine learning (ML) forecasting methods. The comparisons performed are all based on case studies, while an extensive study aiming to provide generalized results on the subject is missing. Herein, we compare 11 stochastic and 9 ML methods regarding their multi-step ahead forecasting properties by conducting 12 large-scale computational experiments based on simulations. Each of these experiments uses 2 000 time series generated by linear stationary stochastic processes. We conduct each simulation experiment twice; the first time using time series of 100 values and the second time using time series of 300 values. Additionally, we conduct a real-world experiment using 405 mean annual river discharge time series of 100 values. We quantify the performance of the methods using 18 metrics. The results indicate that stochastic and ML methods perform equally well.

Time recordings of impulse-type oscillation responses are short and highly transient. These characteristics may complicate the usage of classical spectral signal processing techniques for a) describing the dynamics and b) deriving discriminative features from the data. However, common model identification and validation techniques mostly rely on steady-state recordings, characteristic spectral properties and non-transient behavior. In this work, a recent method, which allows reconstructing differential equations from time series data, is extended for higher degrees of automation. With special focus on short and strongly damped oscillations, an optimization procedure is proposed that fine-tunes the reconstructed dynamical models with respect to model simplicity and error reduction. This framework is analyzed with particular focus on the amount of information available to the reconstruction, noise contamination and non-linearities contained in the time series input. Using the example of a mechanical oscillator, we illustrate how the optimized reconstruction method can be used to identify a suitable model and to extract features from uni-variate and multivariate time series recordings in an engineering-compliant environment. Moreover, the determined minimal models allow for identifying the qualitative nature of the underlying dynamical systems as well as testing for the degree and strength of non-linearity. The reconstructed differential equations would then be potentially available for classical numerical studies, such as bifurcation analysis. These results represent a physically interpretable enhancement of data-driven modeling approaches in structural dynamics.

It is a common practice to detect outliers in a financial time series in order to avoid the adverse effect of additive outliers. This paper investigated the performance of GARCH family models (sGARCH; gjrGARCH; iGARCH; TGARCH and NGARCH) in the presence of different sizes of outliers (small, medium and large) for different time series lengths (250, 500, 750, 1000, 1250 and 1500) using root mean square error (RMSE) and mean absolute error (MAE) to adjudge the models. In a simulation iteration of 1000 times in R environment using rugarch package, results revealed that for small size of outliers, irrespective of the length of time series, iGARCH dominated, for medium size of outliers, it was sGARCH and gjrGARCH that dominated irrespective of time series length, while for large size of outliers, irrespective of time series length, gjrGARCH dominated. The study further leveled that in the presence of additive outliers on time series analysis, both RMSE and MAE increased as the time series length increased.

In previous studies we used Laurent Schwartz’ theory of distributions to rigorously introduce discretizations and periodizations on tempered distributions. These results are now used in this study to derive a validity statement for four interlinking formulas. They are variants of Poisson’s Summation Formula and connect four commonly defined Fourier transforms to one another, the integral Fourier transform, the Discrete-Time Fourier Transform (DTFT), the Discrete Fourier Transform (DFT) and the Integral Fourier transform for periodic functions—used to analyze Fourier series. We prove that under certain conditions, these four Fourier transforms become particular cases of the Fourier transform in the tempered distributions sense. We first derive four interlinking formulas from four definitions of the Fourier transform pure symbolically. Then, using our previous results, we specify three conditions for the validity of these formulas in the tempered distributions sense.

The goal of VAR or BVAR is the characterization of the dynamics and endogenous relationships among time series. Also the VAR models are known for their applications to forecasting and policy analysis. This paper compare the performance of VAR and Sims-Zha Bayesian VAR models when the multiple time series are jointly influenced by different levels of collinearity and autocorrelation in the short term (T=16, 32, 64 and 128). Five levels (-0.9,-0.5, 0,+0.5,+0.9) of collinearity and autocorrelation were considered and the results from the simulation study revealed that VAR(2) model dominated for no and moderate levels of autocorrelation (-0.5, 0, +0.5) irrespective of the collinearity level except in few cases when T=16. While the BVAR models dominated for high autocorrelation levels (-0.9 and +0.9) irrespective of the collinearity level except in few cases when T=128. The performance of the models varies at different levels of the collinearity and autocorrelated error, and also varies with the short term periods. Furthermore, the values of the RMSE and MAE criteria decrease as a result of increase in the time series length. In conclusion, the performance of the forecasting models depend on the time series data structure and the time series length. It is therefore recommended that the data structure and series length should be considered in using an appropriate model for forecasting.

This study compared the performance of five Family Generalized Auto-Regressive Conditional Heteroscedastic (fGARCH) models (sGARCH, gjrGARCH, iGARCH, TGARCH and NGARCH) in the presence of high positive autocorrelation. To achieve this, financial time series was simulated with autocorrelated coefficients as ρ = (0.8, 0.85, 0.9, 0.95, 0.99), at different time series lengths (as 250, 500, 750, 1000, 1250, 1500) and each trial was repeated 1000 times carried out in R environment using rugarch package. And the performance of the preferred model was judged using Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) and Mean Absolute Error (MAE). Results from the simulation revealed that these GARCH models performances varies with the different autocorrelation values and at different time series lengths. But in the overall, NGARCH model dominates with 62.5% and 59.3% using RMSE and MAE respectively. We therefore recommended that investors, financial analysts and researchers interested in stock prices and asset return should adapt NGARCH model when there is high positive autocorrelation in the financial time series data.

In this paper, we study the usage of machine learning models for sales time series forecasting. The effect of machine learning generalization has been considered. A stacking approach for building regression ensemble of single models has been studied. The results show that using stacking technics, we can improve the performance of predictive models for sales time series forecasting.

The futures market plays a significant role in hedging and speculating by investors. Although various models and instruments are developed for real-time trading, it is difficult to realize profit by processing and trading a vast amount of real-time data. This study proposes a real-time index futures trading strategy that uses the pattern of KOSPI 200 index futures time series data. We construct a pattern matching trading system (PMTS) based on a dynamic time warping algorithm that recognizes patterns of market data movement in the morning and determines the afternoon's clearing strategy. We adopt 13 and 27 representative patterns and conduct simulations with various ranges of parameters to find optimal ones. Our experimental results show that the PMTS provides stable and effective trading strategies with relatively low trading frequencies. Investor communities that have sustained financial markets are able to make more efficient investments by using the PMTS. In this sense, the system developed in this paper is a sustainable investment technique and helps financial markets achieve efficient sustainability.

A continuous Deep Belief Network (cDBN) with two hidden layers is proposed in this paper, focusing on the problem of weak feature learning ability when dealing with continuous data. In cDBN, the input data is trained in an unsupervised way by using continuous version of transfer functions, the contrastive divergence is designed in hidden layer training process to raise convergence speed, an improved dropout strategy is then implemented in unsupervised training to realize features learning by de-cooperating between the units, and then the network is fine-tuned using back propagation algorithm. Besides, hyper-parameters are analysed through stability analysis to assure the network can find the optimal. Finally, the experiments on Lorenz chaos series, CATS benchmark and other real world like CO2 and waste water parameters forecasting show that cDBN has the advantage of higher accuracy, simpler structure and faster convergence speed than other methods.

In the coming years, the Anthropocene Working Group (AWG) will submit its proposal on the ‘Anthropocene’ as a new geological epoch to the International Commission on Stratigraphy (ICS) for approval. If approved, the proposal will be send to the International Union of Geological Sciences (IUGS) for ratification. If the proposal is approved and ratified, the ‘Anthropocene’ will be formalised and the Holocene Series/Epoch will be officially terminated. Currently, the ‘Anthropocene’ is a broadly used term and concept in a wide range of scientific and non-scientific situations and, for many, the official acceptance of this term is only a matter of time. However, the AWG proposal, in its present state, seems to not fully meet the ICS requirements for a new geological epoch. This paper asks what could happen if the current ‘Anthropocene’ proposal is not formalised by the ICS/IUGS. The possible stratigraphic alternatives are evaluated on the basis of the more recent literature and the personal opinions of distinguished AWG and ICS members. The eventual impact on environmental sciences and on non-scientific sectors, where the ‘Anthropocene’ seems already firmly rooted and de facto accepted as a new geological epoch, are also discussed.

This work is located in a growing sector within the field of renewable energies, wave energy converters (WECs). Specifically, it focuses on one of the point absorbers wave (PAWs) of the hybrid platform W2POWER. With the aim of maximising the mechanical power extracted from the waves by these WECs and reduce their mechanical fatigue, the design of five different model predictive controllers (MPCs) with hard and soft constraints has been carried out. As contribution of this paper, two of the MPCs have been designed with the addition of an embedded integrator. In order to validate the MPCs, an exhaustive study on performance and robustness is realized through simulations carried out in which uncertainties in the WEC dynamics are considered. Furthermore, looking for realistic in these simulations, an identification methodology for PAWs is proposed and validated by means of real time series of a scale prototype.

The crucial stages in the geochemical evolution of the Earth’s crust, ocean, and atmosphere could be explained by the assumed low-energy nuclear reactions (LENR) that are triggered by seismic activity. LENR result in the fission of medium-weight elements accompanied by neutron emissions, involving Fe and Ni as starting elements, and C, N, O as resultants. Geochemical data and experimental evidences support the LENR hypothesis. A spectral analysis of the period 1955-2013 shows common cycles between interannual changes in atmospheric CO2 growth rate and global seismic-moment release, whereas the trending behavior of the atmospheric CO2 was in response to the anthropogenic emissions. Assuming a correlation between such seismic and atmospheric fluctuations, the latter could be explained by cycles of worldwide seismicity, which would trigger massively LENR in the Earth’s Crust. In this framework, LENR from active faults could be considered as a relevant cause of carbon formation and degassing of freshly-formed CO2 during seismic activity. However, further studies are necessary to validate the present hypothesis which, at the present time, mainly aims to stimulate debate on the models which regulates atmospheric CO2.

The Doubly-Fed Induction Generator (DFIG) has significant features in comparison with Fixed Speed Wind Turbine (FSWT), which has popularized its application in power system. Due to partial rated back-to-back converters in the DFIG, Fault Ride-Through (FRT) capability improvement is one of the great subjects regarding new grid code requirements. To enhance the FRT capability of the DFIG, many studies have been carried out. Fault current limiting devices as one of the techniques are utilized to limit the current level and protect switches of the back-to-back converter from over-current damage. In this paper, a review is done based on fault current limiting characteristic of the proposed fault current limiting devices Therefore, Fault Current Limiters (FCLs) and Series Dynamic Braking Resistors (SDBRs) are mainly taken into account. Operation of all configurations including their advantages and disadvantages is explained. Impedance type and the fault current limiting devices’ location are two important factors, which significantly affect the DFIG behaviour in the fault condition. These two factors are basically studied by the simulation and their effects on the key parameters of the DFIG are investigated. Finally, future works in respect to the FCL application in the FRT improvement of the DFIG have also been discussed.

The variability of meteorological parameters such as temperature and precipitation, and climatic conditions such as intense droughts, are known to impact vegetation health over southern Africa. Thus, understanding large-scale ocean–atmospheric phenomena like the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Indian Ocean Dipole/Dipole Mode Index (DMI) is important as these factors drive the variability of temperature and precipitation. In this study, 16 years (2002–2017) of Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) Terra/Aqua 16-day normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), extracted and processed using JavaScript code editor in the Google Earth Engine (GEE) platform in order to analyze the response pattern of the oldest proclaimed nature reserve in Africa, the Hluhluwe-iMfolozi Park (HiP), during the study period. The MODIS-enhanced vegetation index and burned area index were also analyzed for this period. The area-averaged Modern Retrospective Analysis for Research Application (MERRA) model maximum temperature and precipitation were also extracted using the JavaScript code editor in the GEE platform. This procedure demonstrated a strong reversal of both the NDVI and Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI), leading to signs of a sudden increase of burned areas (strong BAI) during the strongest El Niño period. Both the Theilsen method and the Mann–Kendall test showed no significant greening or browning trends over the whole time series, although the annual Mann–Kendall test, in 2003 and 2014–2015, indicated significant browning trends due to the most recent strongest El Niño. Moreover, a multi-linear regression model seems to indicate a significant influence of both ENSO activity and precipitation. Our results indicate that the recent 2014–2016 drought altered the vegetation condition in the HiP. We conclude that it is vital to exploit freely available GEE resources to develop drought monitoring vegetation systems, and to integrate climate information for analyzing its influence on protected areas, especially in data-poor counties.

In this paper, we investigate an analytical solution of a class of nonlinear fractional integro-differential equation base on a generalized fractional power series expansion. The fractional derivatives are described in the conformable's type. The new approach is a modified form of the well-known Taylor series expansion. The illustrative examples are presented to demonstrate the accuracy and effectiveness of the proposed method

Search for periodic signals from blazars has become widely discussed topic in recent years. This is because periodic signals bear imprints of the processes occurring near the innermost regions of blazars which are mostly inaccessible to our direct view. Such signals provide insights into various aspect of blazar studies including disk-jet connection, magnetic field configuration and, more importantly, strong gravity near the supermassive black holes and release of gravitational waves from the binary supermassvie black hole systems. In this work, we report detection of a periodic signal in the radio light curves of the blazar J1043+2408 spanning ~10.5 years. We performed multiple methods of time series analysis, namely, epoch folding, Lomb-Scargle periodogram, and discrete auto-correlation function. All three methods consistently reveal a repeating signal with a periodicity of ~563 days. To robustly account for the red-noise processes usually dominant in the blazar variability and other possible artifacts, a large number of Monte Carlo simulations were performed. This allowed us to estimate a high significance (99.9% local and 99.4% global) against possible spurious detection. As possible explanations, we discuss a number of scenarios including binary supermassive black hole system, Lense-Thirring precession, and jet swing and precession.

Introduction Pharmacovigilance may detect safety issues after marketing of medications, and this can result in regulatory action such as direct healthcare professional communications (DHPC). DHPC can be effective in changing prescribing behaviour, however the extent to which prescribers vary in their response to DHPC is unknown. This study aims to explore changes in prescribing and prescribing variation among GP practices following a DHPC on the safety of mirabegron, a medication to treat overactive bladder (OAB). Methods This is an interrupted time series study of English GP practices from 2014-2017. NHS Digital provided monthly statistics on aggregate practice-level prescribing and practice characteristics (practice staff and registered patient profiles, Quality & Outcomes Framework indicators, and deprivation of the practice area). The primary outcome was monthly mirabegron items as a percentage of all OAB drug items. The exposure was a DHPC issued by the European Medicines Agency in September 2015. Variation between practices in mirabegron prescribing before and after the DHPC was assessed using the systematic component of variation (SCV). Multilevel segmented regression with random effects quantified the change in level and trend of prescribing after the DHPC. Practice characteristics were assessed for their association with a reduction in prescribing following the DHPC. Results This study included 7,408 practices. During September 2015, 88.9% of practices prescribed mirabegron and mirabegron composed a mean of 8.2% (SD 6.8) of OAB items. Variation between practices was classified as very high and the median SCV did not change significantly (p=0.11) in the 6 months after the September 2015 DHPC (12.4) compared to before (11.6). Before the DHPC, there was a monthly trend of 0.294 (95%CI, 0.287, 0.301) percentage points increase in mirabegron percentage. There was no significant change in the month immediately after the DHPC (-0.023, 95% CI -0.105 to 0.058) however there was a significant reduction in trend (-0.036, 95% CI -0.049 to -0.023). Higher numbers of registered patients and patients aged ≥65 years, and practice area deprivation were associated with having a significant decrease in level and slope of mirabegron prescribing post-DHPC. Conclusion Variation in mirabegron prescribing was high over the study period and did not change substantively following the DHPC. There was no immediate prescribing change post-DHPC, although the monthly growth did slow. Knowledge of the degree of variation in and determinants of response to safety communications may allow those that do not change prescribing to be provided with additional supports.

In this paper we discuss a problem of generalization of binomial distributed triangle, that is sequence A287326 in OEIS. The main property of A287326 that it returns a perfect cube n as sum of n-th row terms over k; 0 ≤ k ≤ n−1 or 1 ≤ k ≤ n, by means of its symmetry. In this paper we have derived a similar triangles in order to receive powers m = 5; 7 as row items sum and generalized obtained results in order to receive every odd-powered monomial n^2m+1; m ≥ 0 as sum of row terms of corresponding triangle. In other words, in this manuscript are found and discussed the polynomials D_m(n,k) and U_m(n,k), such that, when being summed up over k in some range with respect to m and n returns the monomial n^2m+1.

A timely inventory of agricultural areas and crop types is an essential requirement for ensuring global food security. Satellite remote sensing has proven to be an increasingly more reliable tool to identify crop types. With the Copernicus program and its Sentinel satellites, a growing source of satellite remote sensing data is publicly available at no charge. Here we use joint Sentinel-1 radar and Sentinel-2 optical imagery to create a crop map for Belgium. To ensure homogenous radar and optical input across the country, Sentinel-1 12-day backscatter composites were created after incidence angle normalization, and Sentinel-2 NDVI images were smoothed to yield dekadal cloud-free composites. An optimized random forest classifier predicted the 8 crop types with a maximum accuracy of 82% and a kappa coefficient of 0.77. We found that a combination of radar and optical imagery always outperformed a classification based on single-sensor inputs, and that classification performance increased throughout the season until July, when differences between crop types are largest. Furthermore we showed that the concept of classification confidence derived from the random forest classifier provided insight in the reliability of the predicted class for each pixel, clearly showing that parcel borders have a lower classification confidence. We concluded that the synergistic use of radar and optical data for crop classification led to richer information increasing classification accuracies compared to optical-only classification. Further work should focus on object-level classification and crop monitoring to exploit the rich potential of combined radar and optical observations.

Four methods in two different families have been constructed to derive the exact solutions to Benjamin-Bona-Mahony equation in two space dimensions. Simply defined hyperbolic tangent, hyperbolic secant and hyperbolic cosecant ansatzes and the expansion method based on the Sine-Gordon equation in two dimensions are directly substituted into the governing ODE reduced from the two dimensional BBM equation. Classical algebraic method is used to find the relations among the target parameters representing the nonzero coefficients in the predicted solutions and the wave transform parameters. Some complex and real solutions have been constructed in explicit forms.

The relationship between economic growth, growth volatility and financial sector development continues to attract attention in the theoretical and empirical literature. Over time, some studies hypothesize that finance has a causal linear relationship with growth. Recently several other authors contradict this claim and argue that the relationship that exists between finance and growth is nonlinear. We investigate these claims for Nigeria for the period between 1970 and 2015, using semi-parametric econometric methods, Hansen sample splitting techniques and threshold estimator. We observed no evidence of ‘Too much finance’ as claimed by many researchers in recent times. We show that the relationship between financial development and economic growth is U-shaped. This is equally true for the relationship between financial development and growth volatility. We also discuss policy implications of our findings and recommend financial innovations and decentralization of stock exchanges to boost access to financial services, in addition, improved regulation to enhance financial market efficiency.

Smart grids require flexible data driven forecasting methods. We propose clustering tools for bottom-up short-term load forecasting. We focus on individual consumption data analysis which plays a major role for energy management and electricity load forecasting. The two first sections are dedicated to the industrial context and a review of individual electrical data analysis. We are interested in hierarchical time-series for bottom-up forecasting. The idea is to disaggregate the signal in such a way that the sum of disaggregated forecasts improves the direct prediction. The 3-steps strategy defines numerous super-consumers by curve clustering, builds a hierarchy of partitions and selects the best one minimizing a forecast criterion. Using a nonparametric model to handle forecasting, and wavelets to define various notions of similarity between load curves, this disaggregation strategy applied to French individual consumers leads to a gain of 16\% in forecast accuracy. We then explore the upscaling capacity of this strategy facing massive data and implement proposals using R, the free software environment for statistical computing. The proposed solutions to make the algorithm scalable combines data storage, parallel computing and double clustering step to define the super-consumers.

Land Surface Temperature (LST) is a basic parameter in energy exchange between the land and atmosphere and is frequently used in many sciences such as climatology, hydrology, agriculture, ecology, etc. LST time series data have usually deficient, missing and unacceptable data caused by the presence of clouds in images, presence of dust in atmosphere and sensor failure. In this study, Singular Spectrum Analysis (SSA) algorithm was used to resolve the problem of missing and outlier data caused by cloud cover. The region studied in the present research included an image frame of MODIS with horizontal number 22 and vertical number 05 (h22v05). This image involved a large part of Iran and Turkmenistan and Caspian Sea. In this study, MODIS LST sensor (MOD11A1) was used during 2015 with 1×1 Km spatial resolution and day/night LST data (daily temporal resolution). The results of the data quality showed that cloud cover caused 36.37% of missing data in the studied time series with 730 day/night LST images. Further, the results of SSA algorithm in reconstruction of LST images indicated the Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) of 2.95 K between the original and reconstructed data in LST time series in the study region. In general, the findings showed that SSA algorithm using spatio-temporal interpolation in LST time series can be effectively used to resolve the problem of missing data caused by cloud cover.

Landslide is a sliding movement of rock mass, debris and soil along the slope under the action of gravity. Small Baseline Subset (SBAS) is an established method for the investigation and monitoring of landslide moments. This study focuses on monitoring the long-temporal displacement of mountainous terrain in Danba County, Sichuan Province via SBAS technique, based on 31 scenes of L-band ALOS/PALSAR data from Feb. 2007 to Oct. 2010.The results show that the largest velocity rates in LOS direction are ±120 mm/yr and maximum accumulated displacement is up to -300, which indicates fast movement of the mountainous terrain during the observation time. These results get good consistency against the results of previous study. This demonstrates the strong potential of SBAS technique for monitoring the landslides geohazard.

This paper has three objectives, the first is to present a detailed overview in the form of a tutorial for the developments of several key quantile time series modelling approaches. The second objective is to develop a general framework to represent such quantile models in a unifying manner in order to easily develop extensions and connections between existing models that can then be developed to further extend these models in practice. In this regard, the core theme of the paper is to provide perspectives to a general audience of core components that go into construction of a quantile time series model and then to explore each of these core components in detail. The paper is not addressing the concerns of estimation of these models, as there is existing literature on these aspects in many settings, we provide references to relevant works on these aspects in several classes of model. Instead, the focus is rather to provide a unified framework to construct such models for practitioners, therefore the focus is instead on the properties of the models and links between such models from a constructive perspective. The third objective is to compare and discuss the application of the different quantile time series models on several sets of interesting demographic and mortality based time series data sets of relevance to life insurance analysis. The exploration included detailed mortality, fertility, births and morbidity data in several countries with more detailed analysis of regional data in England, Wales and Scotland.

The morphology and the activity of a submarine caldera, Avyssos, at the northern part of Nisyros volcano in the South Aegean Sea (Greece), has been studied by means of remotely operated underwater vehicle dives. The recorded time series of temperature and conductivity over the submarine volcano have been analyzed in terms of the Generalized Moments Method. The findings of the mathematical analysis shed light on the volcanic activity, but also on the morphology (shape) of the submarine volcano. The conductivity time series indicates the volcano is at rest in agreement with other types of observations. On the other hand, temperature fluctuations, which in general describe a multifractal process, show that the submarine caldera operates as an open system that interacts with its surroundings. This type of analysis can be used as an indicator for the state of activity and the morphological structure (closed or open system) of a submarine volcano.

The principal aim of a spectral observer is twofold: the reconstruction of a signal of time via state estimation and the decomposition of such a signal into the frequencies that make it up. A spectral observer can be catalogued as an online algorithm for time-frequency analysis because is a method that can compute on the fly the Fourier transform (FT) of a signal, without having the entire signal available from the start. In this regard, this paper presents a novel spectral observer with an adjustable constant gain for reconstructing a given signal by means of the recursive identification of the coefficients of a Fourier series. The reconstruction or estimation of a signal in the context of this work means to find the coefficients of a linear combination of sines a cosines that fits a signal such that it can be reproduced. The design procedure of the spectral observer is presented along with the following applications: (1) the reconstruction of a simple periodical signal, (2) the approximation of both a square and a triangular signal, (3) the edge detection in signals by using the Fourier coefficients, (4) the fitting of the historical Bitcoin market data from 2014-12-01 to 2018-01-08 and (5) the estimation of a input force acting upon a Duffing oscillator. To round out this paper, we present a detailed discussion about the results of the applications as well as a comparative analysis of the proposed spectral observer vis-à-vis the Short Time Fourier Transform (STFT), which is a well-known method for time-frequency analysis.

The new mineral species oyonite, ideally Ag3Mn2Pb4Sb7As4S24, has been discovered in the Uchucchacua polymetallic deposit, Oyon district, Catajambo, Lima Department, Peru, as very rare black metallic subhedral to anhedral crystals, up to 100 μm in length, associated with orpiment, tennantite/tetrahedrite, menchettiite, and other unnamed minerals of the system Pb-Ag-Sb-Mn-As-S, in calcite matrix. Its Vickers hardness (VHN100) is 137 kg/mm2 (range 132–147). In reflected light, oyonite is weakly to moderately bireflectant and weakly pleochroic from dark grey to a dark green. Internal reflections are absent. Reflectance values for the four COM wavelengths (Rmin, Rmax (%) (λ in nm)) are: 33.9, 40.2 (471.1); 32.5, 38.9 (548.3), 31.6, 38.0 (586.6); and 29.8, 36.5 (652.3). Electron microprobe analysis gave (in wt %, average of 5 spot analyses): Cu 0.76 (2), Ag 8.39 (10), Mn 3.02 (7), Pb 24.70 (25), As 9.54 (12), Sb 28.87 (21), S 24.30 (18), total 99.58 (23). On the basis of 20 cations per formula unit, the chemical formula of oyonite is Cu0.38Ag2.48Mn1.75Pb3.79Sb7.55As4.05S24.12. The main diffraction lines are (d in Å, hkl and relative intensity): 3.34 (-312; 40), 3.29 (-520; 100), 2.920 (-132; 40), 2.821 (-232; 70), 2.045 (004; 50). The crystal structure study revealed oyonite to be monoclinic, space group P21/n, with unit-cell parameters a = 19.1806 (18), b = 12.7755 (14), c = 8.1789 (10) Å, β = 90.471 (11)°, V = 2004.1 (4) Å3, Z = 2. The crystal structure was refined to a final R1 = 0.032 for 6272 independent reflections. Oyonite belongs to the Sb-rich members of the andorite homeotypic sub-series within the lillianite homologous series. The name oyonite is after the Oyon district, Lima Department, Peru, the district where the type locality (Uchucchacua mine) is located.

We report on the fabrication and electrical characteristics of zinc-oxide (ZnO) based metal-insulator-semiconductor (MIS) type Schottky barrier diodes (SBHs). ZnO thin layer on the p-type silicon substrate was fabricated by atomic layer deposition (ALD). The structure and surface properties of the thin film were characterized by X-ray diffraction (XRD), atomic force microscope (AFM) and secondary ion mass spectrometer (SIMS). The current-voltage (I-V) characteristics of Al/ALD-grown ZnO/p-Si diodes were measured under dark at room temperature. The electrical parameters such as ideality factor (n), series resistance (R_s) and barrier height (ϕ_b) of the diodes were analyzed using standard thermionic emission (TE) theory, Norde and Cheung method. The barrier height value obtained from I-V and Cheung method was found to be 0.73 eV and 0.76 eV, respectively. The interface state density (Dit) of the diodes was determined from the I-V characteristics. The nonideal behavior of measured parameters suggested the presence of interface states. The obtained results showed that the prepared diode can be used for NIR Schottky photodetector applications.

For a given set of plasma parameters, along a single series (Lyman, Balmer etc) the lines with higher principal quantum number(n) lines get progressively wider, closer to each other, and start merging for a certain critical n. In the present work four different codes(with further options) are used to calculate the entire Balmer series for moderate and high electron densities. Particular attention is paid to the relevant physics, such as the cutoff criteria, strong and penetrating electron collisions.

Inverse Sumudu transform multiple shifting properties are used to design methodology for solving ordinary differential equations. Then algorithm applied to solve Whittaker and Zettl equations to get their new exact solutions and profiles which shown through Maple complex graphicals. Table of inverse Sumudu transforms for elementary functions given for supporting the differential equations solving using inverse Sumudu transform.

New q-series in the spirit of Jacobi have been found in a publication rst published in 1884 written in Russian and translated into English in 1928. This work was found by chance and appears to be almost totally unknown. From these entirely new q-series, fresh lattice sums have been discovered and are presented here.

In this research, univariate and bivariate statistical methods were applied to rainfall, river and piezometric level datasets belonging to 24 years long time series (1986-2009). These methods, that often are used to understand the effects of precipitation on rivers and karstic springs discharge, have been used to assess, piezometric level response to rainfall and river level fluctuations in a porous aquifer. A rain gauge, a river level gauge and three wells, located in Central Italy along the lower Pescara river valley in correspondence of its important alluvial aquifer, provided the data. The statistical analysis has been used within a known hydrogeological framework, which has been refined by mean of a photo-interpretation and a GPS survey. Water-groundwater relationships were identified following the autocorrelation and cross-correlation analyses; the spectral analysis and mono-fractal features of time series were assessed, in order to provide information on multy-year variability, data distributions, their fractal dimension and the distribution return time within the historical time series. The statistical-mathematical results were interpreted through field work that identified distinct groundwater flowpaths within the aquifer and enabled the implementation of a conceptual model, improving the knowledge on water resources management tools.

We define a new seasonal forecasting method based on fuzzy transforms. We use the best interpolating polynomial for extracting the trend of the time series and generate the inverse fuzzy transform on each seasonal subset of the universe of discourse for predicting the value of a an assigned output. Like first example, we use the daily weather dataset of the municipality of Naples (Italy) starting from data collected from 2003 till to 2015 making predictions on the following outputs: mean temperature, max temperature and min temperature, all considered daily. Like second example, we use the daily mean temperature measured at the weather station “Chiavari Caperana” in the Liguria Italian Region. We compare the results with our method, the average seasonal variation, ARIMA and the usual fuzzy transforms concluding that the best results are obtained under our approach in both examples.

Most of existing fuzzy forecasting models partition historical training time series into fuzzy time series and build fuzzy-trend logical relationship groups to generate forecasting rules. The determination process of intervals is complex and uncertainty. In this paper, we present a novel fuzzy forecasting model based on high-order fuzzy-fluctuation trends and the fuzzy-fluctuation logical relationships of the training time series. Firstly, we compare each data with the data of its previous day in historical training time series to generate a new fluctuation trend time series(FTTS). Then, fuzzify the FTTS into fuzzy-fluctuation time series(FFTS) according to the up, equal or down range and orientation of the fluctuations. Since the relationship between historical FFTS and the fluctuation trend of future is nonlinear, Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) algorithm is employed to estimate the required parameters. Finally, use the acquired parameters to forecast the future fluctuations. In order to compare the performance of the proposed model with that of the other models, we apply the proposed method to forecast the Taiwan Stock Exchange Capitalization Weighted Stock Index (TAIEX) time series datasets. The experimental results and the comparison results show that the proposed method can be successfully applied in stock market forecasting or such kinds of time series. We also apply the proposed method to forecast Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index (SHSECI) to verify its effectiveness and universality.

Anomaly detection plays a significant role in helping gas turbines run reliably and economically. Considering collective anomalous data and both sensitivity and robustness of the anomaly detection model, a sequential symbolic anomaly detection method is proposed and applied to the gas turbine fuel system. A structural Finite State Machine is to evaluate posterior probabilities of observing symbolic sequences and most probable state sequences they may locate. Hence an estimating based model and a decoding based model are used to identify anomalies in two different ways. Experimental results indicates that these two models have both ideal performance overall, and estimating based model has a strong ability in robustness, while decoding based model has a strong ability in accuracy, particularly in a certain range of length of sequence. Therefore, the proposed method can well facilitate existing symbolic dynamic analysis based anomaly detection methods especially in gas turbine domain.

In the paper, the authors survey integral representations of the Catalan numbers and the Catalan–Qi function, discuss equivalent relations between these integral representations, supply alternative and new proofs of several integral representations, collect applications of some integral representations, and present sums of several power series whose coefficients involve the Catalan numbers.

Suitable measures of grazing impacts on ground cover, that enable separation of the effects of climatic variations, are needed to inform land managers and policy makers across the arid rangelands of the Northern Territory of Australia. This work developed and tested a time-series, change-point detection method for application to time series of vegetation fractional cover derived from Landsat data to identify irregular and episodic ground-cover growth cycles. These cycles were classified to distinguish grazing impacts from that of climate variability. A measure of grazing impact was developed using a multivariate technique to quantify the rate and degree of ground cover change. The method was successful in detecting both long term (> 3 years) and short term (< 3 years) growth cycles. Growth cycle detection was assessed against rainfall surplus measures indicating a relationship with high rainfall periods. Ground cover change associated with grazing impacts was also assessed against field measurements of ground cover indicating a relationship between both field and remotely sensed ground cover. Cause and effects between grazing practices and ground cover resilience can now be explored in isolation to climatic drivers. This is important to the long term balance between ground cover utilisation and overall landscape function and resilience.

With the great development of intelligent transportation systems (ITS), travel time prediction has attracted the attentions of many researchers and a large number of prediction methods have been developed. However, as an unavoidable topic, the predictability of travel time series is the basic premise for travel time prediction has received less attention than the methodology. Based on the analysis of the complexity of travel time series, this paper defines travel time predictability to express the probability of correct travel time prediction and proposes an entropy-based method to measure the upper bound of travel time predictability. Multiscale entropy is employed to quantify the complexity of travel time series, and the relationships between entropy and the upper bound of travel time predictability are presented. Empirical studies are made with vehicle trajectory data in an express road section. The effectiveness of time scales, tolerance, and series length to entropy and travel time predictability are analysis, and some valuable suggestions about the accuracy of travel time predictability are discussed. Finally, the comparisons between travel time predictability and actual prediction results from two prediction models, ARIMA and BPNN, are conducted. Experimental results demonstrate the validity and reliability of the proposed travel time predictability.

To eliminate the influence of the inconsistency on the cycle life and the available capacity of the battery pack, and improve the balancing speed, a novel inductor-based layered bidirectional equalizer (IBLBE) is proposed. The equalizer is composed of the bottom balancing circuits and the upper balancing circuits, and the two layer circuits both consist of a plurality of balancing sub-circuits, which allow the dynamic adjustment of equalization path and equalization threshold. The battery string is modularized by layered balancing circuits to realize fast active equalization, especially for long battery strings. By controlling the bottom balancing circuits, the individual cells can be balanced in each module. At the same time, the equalization between battery modules can be realized by controlling the upper balancing circuits. Simulation and experimental results demonstrate that the proposed equalizer can achieve fast active equalization for a long battery string, and has the characteristics of multi balancing path, large balancing current and high accuracy. The advantages of the proposed equalizer are further verified by a comparison with existing active equalizer.

In this paper, we study the asymptotic behavior of the sequential empirical process and the sequential empirical copula process, both constructed from residuals of multivariate stochastic volatility models. Applications for the detection of structural changes and specification tests of the distribution of innovations are discussed. It is also shown that if the stochastic volatility matrices are diagonal, which is the case if the univariate time series are estimated separately instead of being jointly estimated, then the empirical copula process behaves as if the innovations were observed; a remarkable property. As a by-product, one also obtains the asymptotic behavior of rank-based measures of dependence applied to residuals of these time series models.

In the paper, the authors discover several series identities involving the Catalan numbers, the Catalan function, the Riemanian zeta function, and the alternative Hurwitz zeta function.

This article shortly introduces Gaussian processes as a new approach for modelling time series in the field of blazar physics. In the second part of the paper, recent results from an application of GP modelling to the multi-wavelength light curves of the blazar PKS 1502+106 are discussed.

The use of haptic devices in rehabilitation of impaired limbs has become rather popular, given the proven effectiveness in promoting recovery. In a standard framework, such devices are used in rehabilitation centers, where patients interact with virtual tasks, presented on a screen. To track their sessions, kinematic/dynamic parameters or performance scores are recorded. However, as Internet access is now available at almost every home, and in order to reduce the hospitalization time of the patient, the idea of doing rehabilitation at home is gaining wide consent. Medical care programs can be synchronized with the home rehabilitation device; patient data can be sent to the central server that could redirect to the therapist laptop (tele-healthcare). The controversial issue is that the recorded data do not actually represent the clinical conditions of the patients according to the medical assessment scales, forcing them to frequently undergo clinical tests at the hospital. To respond to this demand, we propose the use of a bilateral master/slave haptic system that could allow the clinician, who interacts with the master, to assess remotely and in real time the clinical conditions of the patient that uses the home rehabilitation device as the slave. In this paper, we describe a proof of concept to highlight the main issues of such an application, limited to one degree of freedom, and to the measure of the stiffness and range of motion of the hand.

According to the fact that the low convergence level on the complete elliptic integral of the first kind for the modulus which having values approach to one. In this paper we propose novelty of the complete elliptic integral consists of the new infinite series. We apply the scheme of iteration by substituting the common modulus with own modulus function into the new infinite series. We obtained so many new exact formulas of the complete elliptic integral derived from this method correspond to the number of iteration order. On the other hand, it has been also obtained a lot of new modulus functions rather than common used previously. The calculation results show that the number of significant figures of the new infinite series of the complete elliptic integral of the first kind is increased more and more. It means more fastly convergent would be obtained comparison values with the previous infinite series.

In this paper we consider type II bivariate generalized power series Poisson distribution as a compound Poisson distribution with bivariate generalized power series compounding distribution. We obtain some properties, p.m.f. and conditional distributions. In addition we also give a brief discussion about the multivariate extension of this case. Then we introduce type II bivariate generalized power series Poisson process and consider a bivariate risk model with type II bivariate generalized power series Poisson model as the counting process. For this model we derive distribution of the time to ruin and bounds for the probability of ruin. We obtain partial integro-differential equation for the ruin probabilities and express its bivariate transform through two univariate boundary transforms,where one of the initial capitals is fi xed at zero.

This paper is aimed at studying the temporal evolution of the surface displacements occurred over the past few years in the ocean-reclaimed platforms of the Shanghai megacity (China), which are mainly ascribable to consolidation processes of large dredger fills and alluvial deposits. With respect to previous analyses carried out over the same area, this work provides a joint multi-platform differential interferometry synthetic aperture radar (DInSAR) analysis, based on the application of the advanced Small BAseline Subset (SBAS) algorithm. This led us to retrieve long-term deformation time-series that are helpful for a better understanding of the on-going deformation phenomena. To this aim, we have exploited two sequences of SAR data collected by the ASAR/ENVISAT and by the COSMO-SkyMed (CSK) sensors, respectively, spanning the whole time period from 2007 to 2016. Unfortunately, the large time gap (of about three years) existing between the available ASAR/ENVISAT and CSK datasets gave rise to additional difficulties for their combination. Nevertheless, this problem has been faced by benefiting from the knowledge of a time-dependent model describing the temporal evolution of the expected deformations affecting the Shanghai ocean-reclaimed platforms.