The total enthalpies of the 16 different spin configurations that can be realized in the unit cell of the archetype spin crossover complex [Fe(phen)₂(NCS)₂] (phen=1,2-phenanthroline) were calculated applying periodic density functional theory combined with the Hubbard model and the Grimme-D2 dispersion correction (DFT+U/D2). The obtained enthalpy differences between the individual spin configurations were used to determine spin couplings of an Ising-like model and subsequent Monte Carlo simulations for this model allowed to estimate the phenomenological interaction parameter Г of the Slichter-Drickamer model, which is commonly used to describe the cooperativity of the spin transition. The calculational procedure described here, which led to an estimate of about 3 kJ/mol⁻¹ for Г, in good agreement with experiment, may be used to predict from first principles how modifications of spin crossover complexes can change the character of the spin transition from gradual to abrupt and vice versa.

A comprehensive kinetic model of the Fischer-Tropsch synthesis (FTS) is developed in a fixed bed reactor under operating conditions (temperature, 230–235°C, pressure, 20–25 bar, gas hourly space velocity, 4000–5000 cm³(STP)/h/g_catalyst ,H₂/CO feed molar ratio, 2.1) over a Co based catalyst. Reaction rate equations based on Eley-Rideal (ER) type model for initiation step and Langmuir-Hinshelwood-Hougen-Watson (LHHW) type model for propagation and termination steps of the FTS reactions have been considered and the readsorption of olefins were taken into account. The model that was reported in the literature was modified in order to explain many significant deviations from the ASF distribution. Optimum parameters have been obtained by Genetic Algorithms (GA). The calculated activation energies to produce n-paraffins and 1-olefins were in the range of 82.24 to 90.68 kJ/mol and 100.66 to 105.24 kJ/mol, respectively. The hydrocarbon distribution in FTS reactions was satisfactorily predicted particularly for paraffins.

The Internet-of-Things (IoT) triggers new types of cyber risks. Therefore, the integration of new IoT devices and services requires a self-assessment of IoT cyber security posture. By security posture this article refers to the cybersecurity strength of an organisation to predict, prevent and respond to cyberthreats. At present, there is a gap in the state-of-the-art, because there are no self-assessment methods for quantifying IoT cyber risk posture. To address this gap, an empirical analysis is performed of 12 cyber risk assessment approaches. The results and the main findings from the analysis is presented as the current and a target risk state for IoT systems, followed by conclusions and recommendations on a transformation roadmap, describing how IoT systems can achieve the target state with a new goal-oriented dependency model. By target state, we refer to the cyber security target that matches the generic security requirements of an organisation. The research paper studies and adapts four alternatives for IoT risk assessment and identifies the goal-oriented dependency modelling as a dominant approach among the risk assessment models studied. The new goal-oriented dependency model in this article enables the assessment of uncontrollable risk states in complex IoT systems and can be used for a quantitative self-assessment of IoT cyber risk posture.

A series of novel isobutylchalcones (A1-A20) were prepared, evaluated for their cytotoxic activity and characterized by FTIR, ¹H NMR, ¹³C NMR, and elemental analysis data. The logic behind the design is to synthesize and compare chalcones containing electron releasing lipophilic isobutyl substituent on aromatic ring A and the B ring with aromatic ring containing a range of electron releasing and electron withdrawing groups as well as heteroaromatic rings for their cytotoxic activity. The compounds were tested against HT-29 (colon cancer), MCF-7 (breast cancer) and DU-145 (prostate cancer) cell lines using methotrexate (IC₅₀ 12 ± 1 (HT-29), 9 ±1 (MCF-7) 5 ± 1 (DU-145)) as reference standard. Compound A6 having 2,4-difluorphenyl moiety was most potent of the series against all the three cell lines and notably A6 was mainly effective against DU-145 cell lines with an IC₅₀ value of 18 µg/mL. The critical structural features required for the activity against all the cell lines were identified through pharmacophore model using PHASE^TM which has recognised a 5 point AHHRR model and is consistent with the cytotoxic activity of the tested compounds.

The aims of this study are to measure the technical efficiency (TE) of Cambodian household’s rice production and trying to determine its main influencing factors using the stochastic frontier production function. The study utilized primary data collected from 301 rice farmers in three selected districts of Battambang by structured questionnaires. The empirical results indicated the level of household rice output varied according to differences in the efficiency of the production processes. The mean TE is 0.34 which means that famers produce 34% of rice at best practice at the current level of production inputs and technology, indicates that rice output has the potential of being increased further by 66% at the same level of inputs if farmers had been technically efficient. Furthermore, between 2013-2015, TE of household’s rice production recorded -14.3% decline rate due to highly affected of drought during dry season of 2015. Moreover, evidence reveals that land, fertilizer, and pesticide are the major influencing input factors of household’s rice production, while disaster, education of household head, family size and other crops’ cultivated area are core influencing factors decreasing TE. Conversely, the main influencing factors increasing TE are irrigated area, number of plot area and sex of household head.

In August 4 2011, United Nations Environmental Program (UNEP) submitted an unprecedented, scientific, groundbreaking Environmental Assessment Report (EAR) of Ogoniland, to the Nigerian government. This was the outcome of a 14–month intensive evaluation of the extent of pollution. It was intended that UNEP’s recommendations would be implemented to restore the devastated environment, on the one hand, and on the other, counteract the numerous environmental health issues that have for decades, plagued Ogoniland. However, five years post EAR, and, despite the seriousness of the situation, no significant resolution has occurred, both on the part of the government, and on the part of Shell Petroleum Development Company (SPDC) or Shell. To date, millions of Niger Delta residents, particularly those living in the oil-bearing communities, continue to suffer severe consequences. Although, the assessment was conducted in Ogoniland, other communities in the Niger Delta are also affected. This article explores prevailing issues, using Ogoniland (a microcosm of the Niger Delta) as an example. A multidisciplinary approach for sustainable mitigation of environmental health risks in the Niger Delta is paramount, and Environmental Management tools offer valuable strategies. Adopting UNEP’s recommendations for addressing environmental health problems requires implementing the Environmental Management/Environmental Management System (EM/EMS) model.

Crash prediction of the sharp horizontal curve segment (SHCS) of a freeway is an important tool in analyzing safety of SHCSs and in building a crash prediction model (CPM). The design and crash report data of 88 SHCSs from different institutions were surveyed and three negative binomial (NB) regression models and three generalized negative binomial (GNB) regression models were built to prove that the interactive influence of explanatory variables plays an important role in fitting goodness. The study demonstrates the effective use of the GNB model in analyzing the interactive influence of explanatory variables and in predicting freeway basic segments. Traffic volume, highway horizontal radius, and curve length have been formulated as explanatory variables. Subsequently, we performed statistical analysis to determine the model parameters and conducted sensitivity analysis. Among the six models, the result of model 6, which considered interactive influence, is much better than those of the other models by fitting rules. We also compared the actual results from crashes of 88 SHCSs with those predicted by models 1, 3, and 6. Results demonstrate that model 6 is much more reasonable than models 1 and 3.

Batteries are called to be part of the electricity grid by providing ancillary services. Area regulation services seem to provide substantial revenues and profit. But Li-ion batteries are still too expensive to enter widely into this market. On the other hand, electric vehicle batteries are considered inappropriate for traction purposes when they reached a state of health of 80%. The reuse of these batteries offers affordable batteries for second life stationary applications. This study analyzes how batteries may provide services to a gas turbine cogeneration power plant and how long these batteries may last under different loads.

The ability to detect the presence as well as classify the activities of individuals behind visually obscuring structures is of significant benefit to police, security and emergency services in many situations. This paper presents the analysis from a series of experimental results generated using a through-the-wall (TTW) Frequency Modulated Continuous Wave (FMCW) C-Band radar system named Soprano. The objective of this analysis was to classify whether an individual was carrying an item in both hands or not using micro-Doppler information from a FMCW sensor. The radar was deployed at a standoff distance, of approximately 0.5 m, outside a residential building and used to detect multiple people walking within a room. Through the application of digital filtering, it was shown that significant suppression of the primary wall reflection is possible, significantly enhancing the target signal to clutter ratio. Singular Value Decomposition (SVD) signal processing techniques were then applied to the micro-Doppler signatures from different individuals. Features from the SVD information have been used to classify whether the person was carrying an item or walking free handed. Excellent performance of the classifier was achieved in this challenging scenario with accuracies up to 94%, suggesting that future through wall radar sensors may have the ability to reliably recognize many different types of activities in TTW scenarios using these techniques.

Copper demand for a country's copper industry has a greater pull effect. China's copper consumption in 2015 has accounted for 50% of the world. The scientific forecast of China's copper demands trend is also an important basis for analyzing its future environmental impact. This paper assumes that China's economy will be developing high, medium and low scenarios, and forecasts economic and social indicators such as total GDP, population and per capita GDP in China from 2016 to 2030. Then, predicted the demand of copper resources in China from 2016 to 2030 by the combination of system dynamics model, vector autoregressive moving average model and inverted U-type empirical model. The results show that: (1) in 2020, 2025 and 2030, China's refined copper demand will be 13 Mt, 15 Mt and 15.5 Mt. (2) China's copper demand growth slowed down significantly from 2016-2030. (3) 2025-2030, China's copper resource demand is stable, into the platform of demand growth, the highest peak value in 2027 will be 15.5 Mt. (4) 2030 years later, China's copper resource demand will enter a slow decline.

The textbook analysis of vacuum energy density (VED) in flat spacetime follows from Pauli’s lectures of 1951, in which quantum vacuum is modeled as a reservoir of free harmonic oscillators. In his lectures, Pauli shows that deriving a nearly vanishing VED is contingent upon fulfilling three corollary conditions called polynomial-in-mass-constraints. The goal of this work is to evaluate Pauli’s constraints against the Standard Model parameters and the Higgs mechanism of spontaneous symmetry breaking.

The Vacuum Energy Parameter (VEP) of standard cosmology denotes the fraction of the critical density attributed to the accelerated expansion of the Universe. Astrophysical evidence sets the numerical range of VEP at 0.692 +, - 0.012, yet the root cause of these values is currently unknown. Drawing from the stochastic interpretation of early-Universe cosmology, we develop here a derivation of the VEP based on classical diffusion theory and the Langevin equation. Predictions are shown to be in reasonable agreement with observations.

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has led to wastewater surveillance becoming an important tool for monitoring the spread of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) within communities. As a result, molecular methods, in particular reverse transcription-quantitative PCR (RT-qPCR), have been employed to generate large data sets aimed at the detection and quantification of SARS-CoV-2 in wastewater. Although RT-qPCR is rapid and sensitive, there is no standard method that fits all use cases, there are no certified quantification standards and experiments are carried out using numerous different assays, reagents, instruments, and data analysis protocols. These variations can lead to the reporting of erroneous quantitative data resulting in potentially misleading interpretations and conclusions. We have reviewed the SARS-CoV-2 wastewater surveillance literature focusing on the variability of RT-qPCR data as revealed by inconsistent standard curves and associated parameters. We find that variation in these parameters and deviations from best practices as described in The Minimum Information for Publication of Quantitative Real-Time PCR Experiments (MIQE) guidelines suggest a lack of reproducibility and reliability in quantitative measurements of SARS-CoV-2 RNA in wastewater.

Motivated by diffraction experiments on the $\left(2\sqrt{3}\times \sqrt{3}\right)\mathrm{R}{30}^{\circ }$ reconstructed Si(111) due to deposition of rare earth elements (Dy, Tb) and silicide formation we analyse the splitting and non-splitting of superstructure spots. For this purpose, we model diffraction patterns for one dimensional structures generated by the binary surface technique and use supercell models to keep the analysis simple. Diffraction pattern are calculated in the framework of the kinematical diffraction theory and they are analyzed as a function of the domains and domain boundaries. Basic properties of the diffraction pattern are analyzed for model systems of a two-fold and a three-fold periodicity. The rules derived from these calculations are applied to the "real-world" system of Si(111)-($\left(2\sqrt{3}\times \sqrt{3}\right)\mathrm{R}{30}^{\circ }$)-RESi$2_{}$ (RE = Dy or Tb). Depending on the combination of domains and domain boundaries of different types a plethora of different features are observed in the diffraction patterns. These are analyzed to determine the sizes of both domain boundaries and domains from experimentally observed splitting of specific superstructure spots.

In the paper, by virtue of techniques in combinatorial analysis, the authors simplify two families of nonlinear ordinary differential equations in terms of the Stirling numbers of the first kind.

The SARS-CoV-2 virus that causes the COVID-19 disease has wreaked havoc on the world community in terms of every imaginable parameter. The research output on COVID-19 has been nothing short of phenomenal, especially in the medical and biomedical sciences, where the search for a potential vaccine is being conducted in earnest. Much of the advanced research has been distributed in the leading medical journals, including the Journal of the American Medical Association (JAMA), where the latest research is distributed on a daily basis. The purpose of this paper is to provide some perspectives on 44 interesting and highly topical research papers that have been published in JAMA, at the time of writing, within the past two weeks. The diverse topics include public health, general medicine, internal medicine, oncology, paediatrics, geriatrics, and biostatistics.

Primate vision is an active process that constructs a stable internal representation of the 3D world based on 2D sensory inputs that are inherently unstable due to incessant eye movements. We present here a mathematical framework for processing visual information for a biologically-mediated active vision stereo system with asymmetric conformal cameras. This model utilizes the geometric analysis on the Riemann sphere developed in the group-theoretic framework of the conformal camera, thus far only applicable in modeling monocular vision. The asymmetric conformal camera model constructed here includes the fovea’s asymmetric displacement on the retina and the eye’s natural crystalline lens tilt and decentration, as observed in ophthalmological diagnostics. We extend the group-theoretic framework underlying the conformal camera to the stereo system with asymmetric conformal cameras. Our numerical simulation shows that the 1 theoretical horopter curves in this stereo system are conics that well approximate the empirical longitudinal horopters of the primate vision system.

Climate simulations in West Africa have been attributed with large uncertainties. Global climate projections are not consistent with changes in observations at the regional or local level of the Niger basin, making management of hydrological projects in the basin uncertain. This study evaluates the potential of using the quantile mapping bias correction to improve the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) outputs for use in hydrology impact studies. Rainfall and temperature projections from 8 CMIP5 Global Climate Models (GCM) were bias corrected using the quantile mapping approach. Impacts of climate change was evaluated with bias corrected rainfall, temperature and potential evapotranspiration (PET). The IHACRES hydrological model was adapted to the Niger basin and used to simulate impacts of climate change on discharge under present and future conditions. Bias correction significantly improved the accuracy of rainfall and temperature simulations compared to observations. Nash coefficient (NSE) for monthly rainfall comparisons of 8 GCMs to the observed was improved by bias correction from 0.69 to 0.84. The standard deviations among the 8 GCM rainfall data were significantly reduced from 0.13 to 0.03. Increasing rainfall, temperature, PET and river discharge were projected for all GCMs used in this study under the RCP8.5 scenario. These results will help improving projections and contribute to the development of sustainable climate change adaptation strategies.

For multi-sensor integrated systems, such as a mobile mapping system (MMS), data fusion at sensor-level, i.e., the 2D-3D registration between optical camera and LiDAR, is a prerequisite for higher level fusion and further applications. This paper proposes a line-based registration method for panoramic images and LiDAR point cloud collected by a MMS. We first introduce the system configuration and specification, including the coordinate systems of the MMS, the 3D LiDAR scanners, and the two panoramic camera models. We then establish the line-based transformation model for panoramic camera. Finally, the proposed registration method is evaluated for two types of camera models by visual inspection and quantitative comparison. The results demonstrate that the line-based registration method can significantly improve the alignment of the panoramic image and LiDAR datasets under either the ideal spherical or the rigorous panoramic camera model, though the latter is more reliable.

To estimate the recreational value provided by the Foy’s Lake annually using the most applicable model for on-site data is the main objective of this study. Adhere to the objective of this study; Individual Travel Cost Method (ITCM) has been applied and Zero Truncated Poisson Regression Model has been found plausible among other models to estimate consumer surplus. Based on the findings of the study, an estimate of the consumer surplus or recreational benefits per trip per visitor can be recommended as BDT 5,875 or US $ 73.44 and counting the consumer surplus per trip per visitor, the annual recreational value (total consumer surplus) provided by the lake is found to be BDT 321 million or US $ 40.2 million.

Here, we have discovered a X-ray excited long afterglow phosphor β-NaYF₄: Tb³⁺. After the irradiation of X-ray, the green emission can persist for more than 240 h. After 36 h, the afterglow intensity arrived at 0.69 mcd•m^-2, which can clearly be observed by naked eyes. Even after 84 h, the afterglow emission brightness still reached 0.087 mcd•m^-2. Also, combined with the results of thermoluminescence and photoluminescence, the super long afterglow emission of β-NaYF₄: Tb³⁺ can be ascribed to the tunneling model associated with F centers. More importantly, the super long green afterglow emission of β-NaYF₄: Tb³⁺ has been successfully used as in vivo light source to activate g-C₃N₄ for photodynamic therapy（PDT）and bacteria destruction. Furthermore, super long persistent luminescence of β-NaYF₄: Tb³⁺ could be repeatedly charged by X-ray for many circulations, which indicates that the phosphors have high photo stability under repeated cycles of alternating X-ray irradiation.

This work promotes new methods in Mathematical Modeling, consisting in the use of the methods of Non-standard Analysis in Topoi, having as its main purpose, the mathematical definitions of the pseudoparticles from the title, with arguments from Biology/Physiology (Mathematical Neuroscience), Physics (String Theory and Emergent Quantum Mechanics), and Cybernetics (Global Brain, including Natural and Artificial Intelligence). The connections between brain and mind will be scketched via the genetic/epigenetic interplay. The topoi model the intuitionistic logic (multi-valued) and have been used in Quantum Physics while Non-Standard Analysis in SET (= the Category of sets) has been applied in Mathematical Economics; topics from Theory of Categories were also used in the study of Consciousness; however, the combination topoi - non-standard analysis was never used until now in Applied Mathematics. Another important objective is to produce progress in this aria of Pure Mathematics also - the build of non-standard analysis in classes of topoi, already used in Physics. We propose the logic of non-standard extensions in topoi as a model of the human thinking (based on infons/receptons), these theories representing new top and very difficult results in Abstract Mathematics either.

We model the COVID-19 coronavirus epidemic in China. We use early reported case data to predict the cumulative number of reported cases to a final size. The key features of our model are the timing of implementation of major public policies restricting social movement, the identification and isolation of unreported cases, and the impact of asymptomatic infectious cases.

This paper uses panel data to find the determinants of tracking errors in exchange traded funds (ETFs) in the Hong Kong stock market. A comparison of tracking errors between physical and synthetic ETFs also indicates that the synthetic ETFs have higher tracking errors. The magnitude of tracking errors is found to be negatively related to size but positively related to dividend yield, trading volumes of funds, and market risk. However, this study also finds that expense ratio has a negative impact on tracking error, which is not consistent with previous studies, and which this paper addresses.

Background: Previously, our laboratory has provided evidence that pre-administration of the antioxidant, lipoic acid covalently bonded to various naturally occurring antioxidants, enhanced neuroprotective capacity compared to the administration of lipoic acid on its own. The naturally occurring compound scopoletin, a coumarin derivative, has been shown in various in vitro studies to have both antioxidant and anti-inflammatory mechanism of actions. To date, the effect of scopoletin on neuronal cell death in an in vivo model of ischemia or ischemia-reperfusion has not been investigated. Therefore, the present investigation was designed to determine if scopoletin on its own, or a co-drug consisting of lipoic acid and scopoletin covalent bond, named UPEI-400, would be capable of demonstrating a similar neuroprotective efficacy. Methods: Using a rodent model of stroke in male rats (anesthetized with Inactin®; 100 mg/kg, iv), the middle cerebral artery was permanently occluded for 6 hours (pMCAO), or in separate animals, occluded for 30 min followed by 5.5 hrs of reperfusion (ischemia/reperfusion; I/R). Results: Pre-administration of either scopoletin or UPEI-400 significantly decreased infarct volume in the I/R model (p<0.05), but not in the pMCAO model of stroke. However, UPEI-400 was ~1000 times more potent as compared to scopoletin on its own. The optimal dose of UPEI-400 was then injected during the occlusion and at several time points during reperfusion and significant neuroprotection was observed for up to 150 mins following the start of reperfusion (p<0.05). Conclusion: The data suggest that synthetic combination of scopoletin with lipoic acid (UPEI-400) is a more effective neuroprotectant that either compound on their own. Also, since UPEI-400 was only effective in a model of I/R, it is possible that it may act to enhance neuronal antioxidant capacity and/or upregulate anti-inflammatory pathways to prevent the neuronal cell death.

The COVID-19 epidemic is an emerging infectious disease of the viral zoonosis type caused by the corona-virus strain SARS-CoV-2, is classified as a human-to-human communicable disease and is currently a pandemic worldwide. In this paper, we propose conceptual mathematical models the epidemic dynamics of four compartments. We have collected data from the Djibouti health ministry. We define the positivity, boundedness of solutions and basic reproduction number. Then, we study local and global stability and bifurcation analysis of equilibrium to examine its epidemiological relevance. Finally, we analyze the fit of the data in comparison with the result of our mathematical results, to validate the model and estimating the important model parameters and prediction about the disease, we consider the real cases of Djibouti from 23th March to 10th June, 2020.

Empirically based modeling is an essential aspect of design for a wave energy converter. These models are used in structural, mechanical and control design processes, as well as for performance prediction. The design of experiments and methods used to produce models from collected data have a strong impact on the quality of the model. This study considers the system identification and model validation process based on data collected from a wave tank test of a model-scale wave energy converter. Experimental design and data processing techniques based on general system identification procedures are discussed and compared with the practices often followed for wave tank testing. The general system identification processes are shown to have a number of advantages. The experimental data is then used to produce multiple models for the dynamics of the device. These models are validated and their performance is compared against one and other. While most models of wave energy converters use a formulation with wave elevation as an input, this study shows that a model using a hull pressure sensor to incorporate the wave excitation phenomenon has better accuracy.

In this study we discuss critical issues in modelling the structure and function of lymph nodes (LNs), with emphasis on how LN physiology is related to its multi-scale structural organization. In addition to macroscopic domains such as B-cell follicles and the T cell zone, there are vascular networks which play a key role in the delivery of information to the inner parts of the LN, i.e., the conduit and blood microvascular networks. We propose object-oriented computational algorithms to model the 3D geometry of the fibroblastic reticular cell (FRC) network and the microvasculature. Assuming that a conduit cylinder is densely packed with collagen fibers, the computational flow study predicted that the diffusion should be a dominating process in mass transport than convective flow. The geometry models are used to analyze the lymph flow properties through the conduit network in unperturbed- and damaged states of the LN. The analysis predicts that elimination of up to 60–90 % of edges is required to stop the lymph flux. This result suggests a high degree of functional robustness of the network.

Modularity is arguably one of the most influential theses guiding research on brain and cognitive function since phrenology. This paper considers the following question: is modularity entailed by recent Bayesian models of brain and cognitive function, especially the predictive processing framework? It starts by considering three of the most well-articulated arguments for the view that modularity and predictive processing work well together. It argues that all three kinds of arguments for modularity come up short, albeit for different reasons. The analysis in this paper, although formulated in the context of predictive processing, speaks to broader issues with how to understand the relationship between functional segregation and integration and the reciprocal architecture of the predictive brain. These conclusions have implications for how to study brain and cognitive function. Specifically, when cognitive neuroscience works within an acyclic Markov decision scheme, adopted by most Bayesian models of brain and cognitive function, it may very well be methodologically misguided. This speaks to an increasing tendency within the cognitive neurosciences to emphasise recurrent and reciprocal neuronal processing captured within newly emerging dynamical causal modelling frameworks. The conclusions also suggest that functional integration is an organising principle of brain and cognitive function.

Migrations are much more important than currently recognised, for explaining important patterns observed in the European archaeology record – according to this archaeology led model. At a high level, they explain the introduction of different farming, monument building, the spread of metalworking and patterns of trade and exchange. This paper presents an archaeogenetic model based on a strategic review of the Neolithic and Chalcolithic archaeology of Europe, alongside a review of recently published ancient DNA data. The model is archaeology led. It takes archaeology themes and proposes migratory events to explain them. Ancient DNA data and further archaeology evidence is then used to test these proposed migrations- to reject or refine them. The model introduces a new and more strategic way of looking at archaeological cultures - that updates early 20th century approaches to studying archaeology cultures, and integrates with the detailed ‘post processual’ studies of the late 20th Century. The model consists of seven maps – each showing multiple migration events – with key evidence to support each migration map. It proposes a new category of a ‘Black Sea’ related population that makes a major genetic contribution to the Middle Neolithic of Europe. The proposed migrations provide an explanation for the observed patterns of archaeology, for example: • multiple Neolithic migrations that introduced, farming and metalworking into Europe; • a major ‘Black Sea’ related ‘Middle Neolithic’ migration that carried advanced knowledge of astronomy that can be recognised in a variety of types of monument from the Neolithic through to Bronze Age Europe; and, • migrations of related cultures (‘supercultures’) that explain patterns of trade and exchange in Bronze Age western Europe. The model also provides ancient DNA and archaeology based support for the key aspects of Childe’s ‘dawn of civilisation’ in Europe and Egypt and Gimbutas’ ‘Old Europe’ and “three waves of migration from the Steppe”.

In the paper, the authors establish two identities to express the generating function of the Chebyshev polynomials of the second kind and its higher order derivatives in terms of the generating function and its derivatives each other, deduce an explicit formula and an identities for the Chebyshev polynomials of the second kind, derive the inverse of an integer, unit, and lower triangular matrix, present several identities of the Catalan numbers, and give some remarks on the closely related results including connections of the Catalan numbers respectively with the Chebyshev polynomials, the central Delannoy numbers, and the Fibonacci polynomials.

Food systems will need to undergo considerable transformation. To be better prepared for and resilient to uncertainty and disturbances in the future, resource users and managers need to further develop knowledge about the food and farming system, with its dominating feedback structures and complexities, and to test robust and integrated system-based solutions. This paper investigates how participatory system dynamics modeling can be adapted to groups at the community level with low or no formal educational background. The paper also analyzes the refinement of workshop participants’ mental models as a consequence of a participatory system dynamics intervention. For this purpose, we ran two workshops with small-scale farmers in Zambia. Analysis of workshop data and post-workshop interviews shows that participatory system dynamics is well adaptable to support an audience-specific learning-by-doing approach. The use of pictures, objects and water glasses in combination with the basic aspects of causal loop diagramming makes for a well-balanced toolbox. Participants acquire understanding that is also relevant beyond systems thinking in that is offers a range of practical insights such as a critical evaluation of common food security strategies.

The outbreak of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) was identified in Wuhan, China, in December 2019. As of April 17, 2020, more than 2 million cases of COVID-19 have been reported worldwide. Northern Italy is one of the world’s centers of active coronavirus cases. In this study, we predicted the spread of COVID-19 and its burden on hospital care under different conditions of social distancing in Lombardy and Emilia-Romagna, the two regions of Italy most affected by the epidemic. To do this, we used a Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered (SEIR) deterministic model, which encompasses compartments relevant to public health interventions such as quarantine. A new compartment L was added to the model for isolated infected population, i.e., individuals tested positives that do not need hospital care. We found that in Lombardy restrictive containment measures should be prolonged at least until early July to avoid a resurgence of hospitalizations; on the other hand, in Emilia-Romagna the number of hospitalized cases could be kept under a reasonable amount with a higher contact rate. Our results suggest that territory-specific forecasts under different scenarios are crucial to enhance or take new containment measures during the epidemic.

In the present work, the charged dark matters of B1, B2 and B3 bastons are explained as the right-handed partners of the left-handed neutrinos. The new Higgs mechanism of SU(2)_DM×SU(2)_Weak×SU(2)_Strong including electromagnetic and gravitational forces is applied. And the rest masses of the elementary particles depend on their charge configurations. The left-handed neutrinos have only the lepton charges (LC) and the right-handed dark matters have only the electric charges (EC). This explains the fact that the rest masses of the left-handed neutrinos are so small, and the rest masses of the right-handed dark matters are relatively very large. The proposed rest mass (26.12 eV/c²) of the B1 dark matter is indirectly confirmed from the supernova 1987A data. The missing neutrinos are newly explained by using the dark matters and lepton charge force. The neutrino excess anomaly of the MinibooNE data is explained by the B1 dark matter scattering within the Cherenkov detectors. The quark mixing and neutrino mixing are not required in the present model. It is shown that our matter universe and its partner antimatter universe can be created from the big bang in the point of view of time -, charge -, space -, and quantum state – symmetric universe evolution.

The paper presents the design and the implementation of different advanced control strategies that are applied to a nonlinear model of a thermal unit. A data–driven grey–box identification approach provided the physically meaningful nonlinear continuous–time model, which represents the benchmark exploited in this work. The control problem of this thermal unit is important since it constitutes the key element of passive air conditioning systems. The advanced control schemes analysed in this paper are used to regulate the outflow air temperature of the thermal unit by exploiting the inflow air speed, whilst the inflow air temperature is considered as an external disturbance. The reliability and robustness issues of the suggested control methodologies are verified with a Monte–Carlo analysis for simulating modelling uncertainty, disturbance and measurement errors. The achieved results serve to demonstrate the effectiveness and the viable application the suggested control solutions to air conditioning systems. The benchmark model represents one of the key issues of this study, which is exploited for benchmarking different model–based and data–driven advanced control methodologies through extensive simulations. Moreover, this work highlights the main features of the proposed control schemes, while providing practitioners and heating, ventilating and air conditioning engineers with tools to design robust control strategies for air conditioning systems.

We consider the financial planning problem of a retiree wishing to enter a retirement village at a future uncertain date. The date of entry is determined by the retiree's utility and bequest maximisation problem within the context of uncertain future health states. In addition, the retiree must choose optimal consumption, investment, bequest and purchase of insurance products prior to her full annuitisation on entry to the retirement village. A hyperbolic absolute risk-aversion (HARA) utility function is used to allow necessary consumption for basic living and medical costs. The retirement village will typically require an initial deposit upon entry. This threshold wealth requirement leads to exercising the replication of an American put option at the uncertain stopping time. From our numerical results, active insurance and annuity markets are shown to be a critical aspect in retirement planning.

The main foundations of the standard $\Lambda $CDM model of cosmology are that: 1) The redshifts of the galaxies are due to the expansion of the Universe plus peculiar motions; 2) The cosmic microwave background radiation and its anisotropies derive from the high energy primordial Universe when matter and radiation became decoupled; 3) The abundance pattern of the light elements is explained in terms of primordial nucleosynthesis; and 4) The formation and evolution of galaxies can be explained only in terms of gravitation within a inflation+dark matter+dark energy scenario. Numerous tests have been carried out on these ideas and, although the standard model works pretty well in fitting many observations, there are also many data that present apparent caveats to be understood with it. In this paper, I offer a review of these tests and problems, as well as some examples of alternative models.

In this work model of mirror elements equilibrium of the micromechanical components is developed, the behavior analysis of the mirror element of micromechanical mirrors in case changing of control voltages of electrostatic actuators is carried out, an expression for determining the maximum value of deflection voltage at which the snap-down effect will take the following form is obtained in case of the influence of the coefficient of the electrostatic rigidity of electrostatic actuators. The developed equilibrium model of mirror elements and the obtained results of modeling can be used at design of micromechanical mirrors with internal suspensions.

By using Modified simple equation method, we study the Cahn Allen equation which arises in many scientific applications such as mathematical biology, quantum mechanics and plasma physics. As a result, the existence of solitary wave solutions of the Cahn Allen equation is obtained. Exact explicit solutions interms of hyperbolic solutions of the associated Cahn Allen equation are characterized with some free parameters. Finally, the variety of structure and graphical representation make the dynamics of the equations visible and provides the mathematical foundation in mathematical biology, quantum mechanics and plasma physics.

A rigorous model for the electron is presented by generalizing the Coulomb's Law or Gauss's Law of electrostatics, using a unified theory of electricity and gravity. The permittivity of the free-space is allowed to be variable, dependent on the energy density associated with the electric field at a given location, employing generalized concepts of gravity and mass/energy density. The electric field becomes a non-linear function of the source charge, where concept of the energy density needs to be properly defined. Stable solutions are derived for a spherically symmetric, surface-charge distribution of an elementary charge. This is implemented by assuming that the gravitational field and its equivalent permittivity function is proportional to the energy density, as a simple first-order approximation, with the constant of proportionality referred to as the Unifield Electro-Gravity (UEG) constant. The stable solution with the lowest mass/energy is assumed to represent a ``static'' electron without any spin. Further, assuming that the mass/energy of a static electron is half of the total mass/energy of an electron including its spin contribution, the required UEG constant is estimated. More fundamentally, the lowest stable mass of a static elementary charged particle, its associated classical radius, and the UEG constant are related to each other by a dimensionless constant, independent of any specific value of the charge or mass of the particle. This dimensionless constant is numerologically found to be closely related to the the fine structure constant. This possible origin of the fine structure constant is further strengthened by applying the proposed theory to successfully model the Casimir effect, from which approximately the same above relationship between the UEG constant, electron's mass and classical radius, and the fine structure constant, emerges.

Computer simulation of normal and diseased human heart activity requires a 3D anatomical model of the myocardium, including myofibres. For clinical applications, such a model has to be constructed based on routine methods of cardiac visualisation such as sonography. Symmetrical models are shown to be too rigid, so an analytical non-symmetrical model with enough flexibility is necessary. Based on previously made anatomical models of the left ventricle, we propose a new, much more flexible spline-based analytical model. The model is fully described and verified against DT-MRI data. We show a way to construct it on the basis of sonography data. To use this model in further physiological simulations, we propose a numerical method to utilise finite differences in solving the reaction-diffusion problem together with an example of scroll wave dynamics simulation.

The paper combines two new original concepts about eco-energetic systems. The first one is related to the M.E.N. (Mega-Eco-Nega-Watt) paradigm, which is based on three different but complementary ecological economic spaces: MEGAWATT, as needed energy, ECOWATT, as ecological energy, and NEGAWATT, as preserved energy, even the renewable energies and technologies, in the context of electrical energy production. The second concept presented in this paper is the eco-energetic efficiency, introduced in order to facilitate a correlation between the energetic efficiency of the system and a necessary, new defined ecological coefficient. The proposed formula for eco-energetic efficiency enables an interesting form of reporting to the different situations in which the input energy, output energy, lost energy and externalities, involved in an energetic process interact to produce energy in a specific energetic system, in connection with the circular economy model. Finally, is presented an original diagram of the energetic chains to produce electricity in a resilience regim, with high eco-energetic efficiency from originating in different primary energetic sources as external (gravitation & solar sources), fuels (classical & radioactive), internal sources and others. Even what kind of energetic sources are used to obtain electricity, as coals, gas, wood, hydropower, nuclear power, wind power, biomass, solar systems, and others, the entire process should be sustainable in what is the transdisciplinary integration of the different representative spheres as energy, socio-economy, ecology (environment), with the main core, sustainable education, inclueding the law and administrative aspects, as necessary fields of the knowledge based society/economy.

p-Hydroxyphenylpyruvate dioxygenase (HPPD) is not only the useful molecular target in treating life-threatening tyrosinemia type I, but also an important target for chemical herbicides. A combined in silico structure-based pharmacophore and molecular docking based virtual screening were performed to identify novel potential HPPD inhibitors. The complex based pharmacophore model (CBP) with 0.721 of ROC used for screening compound showed remarkable ability to retrieve known active ligands from decoy molecule. The ChemDiv database was screened using CBP-Hypo2 as a 3D query, and the best-fit hits subjected to molecular docking with two methods of LibDock and CDOCKER in Accelrys Discovery Studio 2.5(DS 2.5) to discern interactions with key residues at the active site of HPPD. 4 Compounds with top rank in HipHop model and well-known binding model were finally chosen as identification of lead compounds with potentially inhibitory effects on active site of target. The results provided powerful insight to the development of novel HPPD inhibitors herbicides using computational techniques.

The long term sustainability and longevity of the business life cycle depends on correct understanding of the contextual constituents, triggers and dynamics, pre-startup planning, strategy and financial forecasting where business plans are developed to understand and forecast project viability, pitch ideas and secure funding. At the same time there is a lack of one page startup business model. Identifying this need, a ‘startup business strategy frame’ has been developed through learnings and encompassing design thinking, the business canvas and other strategy models and approaches. It provides a logical sequential flow and connects value drivers on environmental, strategic including operational and financial levels of proposed startup in a sequential format. To arrive at the frame as a logical conclusion a website www.strategizestartup.com is developed to build startup business model and plans in a time and cost effective process. The website assists the startups at each stage through a work and guidebook. The website takes the user from creative ideation by charting the context to build the strategy and measuring the financial impact. This startup strategy model will alleviate the problems for the first and second stage entrepreneurs to ideate creatively and strategizing. It also eradicates the issues related to reading and understanding long plans which could be an exhaustive and cumbersome process.

We have recently proposed a pre-quantum, pre-space-time theory as a matrix-valued Lagrangian dynamics on an octonionic space-time. This pre-theory offers the prospect of unifying the internal symmetries of the standard model with gravity. It can also predict the values of free parameters of the standard model, because these parameters arising in the Lagrangian are related to the algebra of the octonions which define the underlying non-commutative space-time on which the dynamical degrees of freedom evolve. These free parameters are related to the algebra $J_3(\mathbb O)$ [exceptional Jordan algebra] which in turn is related to the three fermion generations. The exceptional Jordan algebra [also known as the Albert algebra] is the finite dimensional algebra of 3x3 Hermitean matrices with octonionic entries. Its automorphism group is the exceptional Lie group $F_4$. These matrices admit a cubic characteristic equation whose eigenvalues are real and depend on the invariant trace, determinant, and an inner product made from the Jordan matrix. Also, there is some evidence in the literature that the groups $F_4$ and $E_6$ could play a role in the unification of the standard model symmetries, including the Lorentz symmetry. The octonion algebra is known to correctly yield the electric charge values (0, 1/3, 2/3, 1) for standard model fermions, via the eigenvalues of a $U(1)$ number operator, identified with $U(1)_{em}$. In the present article, we use the same octonionic representation of the fermions to compute the eigenvalues of the characteristic equation of the Albert algebra, and compare the resulting eigenvalues with the known mass ratios for quarks and leptons. We find that the ratios of the eigenvalues correctly reproduce the [square root of the] known mass ratios for quarks and charged leptons. We also propose a diagrammatic representation of the standard model bosons, Higgs and three fermion generations, in terms of the octonions, exhibiting an $F_4$ and $E_6$ symmetry. In conjunction with the trace dynamics Lagrangian, the Jordan eigenvalues also provide a first principles theoretical derivation of the low energy value of the fine structure constant, yielding the value $1/137.04006$. The Karolyhazy correction to this value gives an exact match with the measured value of the constant, after assuming a specific value for the electro-weak symmetry breaking energy scale.

The 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development, the SDGs, are high on the agenda for most countries of the world. In its publication of the SDGs, the UN has provided the goals and target descriptions that, if implemented at a country level, would lead towards a sustainable future. The IAEG (InterAgency Expert Group of the SDGs) was tasked with disseminating indicators and methods to countries that can be used to gather data describing the global progress towards sustainability. However 2030 Agenda leaves it to countries to adopt the targets with each government setting its own national targets guided by the global level of ambition but taking into account national circumstances. At present, guidance on how to go about this is scant, but it is clear that the responsibility is with countries to implement and that it is actions at a country level that will determine the success of the SDGs. SDG reporting by countries takes on two forms 1) global reporting using prescribed indicator methods and data; 2) National Voluntary Reviews where a country reports on its own progress in more detail but is also able to present data that are more appropriate for the country. For the latter, countries need to be able to adapt the global indicators to fit national priorities and context, thus the global description of an indicator could be reduced to describe only what is relevant to the country. Countries may also, for the National Voluntary Review, use indicators that are unique to the country but nevertheless contribute to measurement of progress towards the global SDG target. Importantly, for those indicators that relate to the security of natural resources security (e.g. water) indicators, there are no prescribed numerical targets/standards or benchmarks. Rather countries will need to set their own benchmarks or standards against which performance can be evaluated. This paper presents a procedure that would enable a country to describe national targets with associated benchmarks that are appropriate for the country. The procedure focusses on those SDG targets that are natural resource-security focussed e.g. extent of water-related ecosystems (6.6), desertification (15.3) etc., because the selection of indicator methods and benchmarks is based on the location of natural resources, their use and present state and how they fit into national strategies.

The present study aimed to analyze novel mechanisms underlying Nrf2-mediated anti-apoptosis in periodontal ligament stem cells (PDLSCs) in the periodontitis oxidative microenvironment. We created an oxidative stress model with H2O2-treated PDLSCs. Herein, we used real-time PCR, western blotting, TUNEL staining, fluorogenic assay and transfer genetics to confirm the degree of oxidative stress and apoptosis as well as the Nrf2 function. Surprisingly, we demonstrated that with up-regulated ROS and MDA levels, the effect of oxidative stress was obvious under H2O2 treatment. Anti-oxidative molecules were changed after the H2O2 exposure, whereby the anti-oxidative signaling of Nrf2 was activated with the increase of its downstream effectors, HO-1, NQO1 and γ-GCS. Additionally, the apoptosis levels gradually increased with oxidative stress and changes in the caspase-9, caspase-3, Bax and c-Fos levels, but not with caspase-8 and down-regulated Bcl-2. The enhanced antioxidant effect could not resist the occurrence of apoptosis. Furthermore, Nrf2 overexpression effectively improved the anti-oxidative levels and increased cell proliferation. At the same time, overexpression effectively restrained TUNEL staining and decreased the molecular levels of caspase-9, caspase-3, et al, but not that of caspase-8. By contrast, silencing the expression Nrf2 levels had the opposite effect. Collectively, Nrf2 alleviates PDLSCs via its effects on anti-oxidative and anti-intrinsic apoptosis by the activation of anti-oxidative enzymes.

SARS-CoV-2 or COVID-19, a new seventh human corona virus, has out-broken in Wuhan, China since 31^st December 2019, and quickly escalated to take the form of pandemic which killed many human beings throughout almost all countries across continents. The rapidity of its transmission from human to human is far greater than all previous human corona viruses which came into existence like SARS-CoV, MERS-CoV, etc. The nucleotide sequence of SARS-CoV-2 (isolates Wuhan-Hu-1) is 29,875 bp in ss-RNA. Symptoms of SARS-CoV-2 infected pneumonia include from asymptomatic to high fever and/or respiratory illnesses. Coronavirus virion (spherical/round /elliptical in shape) consists of three parts- outer membrane or envelope, nucleocapsid and genome (RNA). SARS-CoV-2 was shown to use receptor, angiotensin converting enzyme 2 (ACE2) for attachment to the cells through its surface spike (S) protein (S1), and the virion enters into the host cell through two routes- direct membrane fusion and endocytotic pathway. The RNA of SARS-CoV acts directly as mRNA and here minus(-) 1 programmed ribosomal frameshift (-1PRF) is being operated by slippery sequence and pseudoknot, so it translates 16 nonstructural proteins including RNA dependent RNA replicase. Then genomic RNA replicated continuously on – strand RNA template and subgenomic RNA transcribed discontinuously on –RNA template to sgmRNA. Subgenomic RNAs/sgmRNAs synthesize all structural proteins. This article takes into consideration the details of established theories of viral structure, viral attachment, mode of entry into human cells, different models of replication and transcription of virus genome proposed by eminent scientists over the years, and makes an in depth examination highlighting meaningful points or important target cites of viral propagation or synthesis, which are conserved, for prompt development of potent drugs or vaccine to counter COVID-19 for which human race is anxiously and eagerly waiting.

Let {$\Gamma(k)$} denote {$(k-1)!$}, and let {$\Gamma_{n}(k)$} denote {$(k-1)!$}, where {$n \in \{3,\ldots,16\}$} and {$k \in \{2\} \cup [2^{\textstyle 2^{n-3}}+1,\infty) \cap \mathbb N$}. For an integer {$n \in \{3,\ldots,16\}$}, let $\Sigma_n$ denote the following statement: if a system of equations {${\mathcal S} \subseteq \{\Gamma_{n}(x_i)=x_k:~i,k \in \{1,\ldots,n\}\} \cup \{x_i \cdot x_j=x_k:~i,j,k \in \{1,\ldots,n\}\}$} with $\Gamma$ instead of $\Gamma_{n}$ has only finitely many solutions in positive integers {$x_1,\ldots,x_n$}, then every tuple {$(x_1,\ldots,x_n) \in (\mathbb N \setminus \{0\})^n$} that solves the original system ${\mathcal S}$ satisfies {$x_1,\ldots,x_n \leqslant 2^{\textstyle 2^{n-2}}$}. Our hypothesis claims that the statements {$\Sigma_{3},\ldots,\Sigma_{16}$} are true. The statement {$\Sigma_6$} proves the following implication: if the equation {$x(x+1)=y!$} has only finitely many solutions in positive integers $x$ and $y$, then each such solution {$(x,y)$} belongs to the set {$\{(1,2),(2,3)\}$}. The statement {$\Sigma_6$} proves the following implication: if the equation {$x!+1=y^2$} has only finitely many solutions in positive integers $x$ and $y$, then each such solution {$(x,y)$} belongs to the set {$\{(4,5),(5,11),(7,71)\}$}. The statement {$\Sigma_9$} implies the infinitude of primes of the form {$n^2+1$}. The statement {$\Sigma_9$} implies that any prime of the form {$n!+1$} with {$n \geqslant 2^{\textstyle 2^{9-3}}$} proves the infinitude of primes of the form {$n!+1$}. The statement {$\Sigma_{14}$} implies the infinitude of twin primes. The statement {$\Sigma_{16}$} implies the infinitude of Sophie Germain primes.

Leishmaniasis is the third most common vector-borne disease and a very important protozoan infection. Cutaneous leishmaniasis is one of the most common types of leishmaniasis infectious diseases with up to 2 million occurrences of new cases each year worldwide. A dynamic transmission multivariate time series model was applied to the data to account for overdispersion and evaluate the effects of three environmental layers as well as seasonality in the data. Furthermore, ecological niche modeling was used to investigate the geographical suitable conditions for cutaneous leishmaniasis using temperature, precipitation and altitude as environmental layers, together with the leishmaniasis presence data. A retrospective analysis of the cutaneous leishmaniasis spatial data in Afghanistan between 2003 and 2009 indicates a steady increase from 2003 to 2007, a small decrease in 2008, then another increase in 2009. An upward trend and regularly repeating patterns of highs and lows was observed related to the months of the year which suggests seasonality effect in the data. Two peaks were observed in the disease occurrence-- January to March and September to December -- which coincide with the cold period. Ecological niche modelling indicates that precipitation has the greatest contribution to the potential distribution of leishmaniasis.

Organisms in the wild have cryptic life stages that are sensitive to changing environmental conditions and can be difficult to survey. In this study, I used mark-recapture methods to repeatedly survey Anaea aidea (Nymphalidae) caterpillars in nature, then modeled caterpillar demography as a hidden Markov process to assess if temporal variability in temperature and density influence the survival and growth of A. aidea over time. Individual encounter histories result from the joint likelihood of being alive and observed in a particular stage, and I included hidden states by separating demography and observations into parallel and independent processes. I constructed a demographic matrix containing the probabilities of all possible fates for each stage, including hidden states, e.g., eggs and pupae. I observed both dead and live caterpillars with high probability. Peak caterpillar abundance attracted multiple predators, and survival of fifth instars declined as per capita predation rate increased through spring. A time lag between predator and prey abundance was likely the cause of improved fifth instar survival estimated at high density. Growth rates showed an increase with temperature, but the most likely model did not include temperature. This work illustrates how state-space models can include unobservable stages and hidden state processes to evaluate how environmental factors influence vital rates of cryptic life stages in the wild.

We present a generic and open-source framework for the numerical modeling of the expected transport and storage mechanisms in unconventional gas reservoirs. These unconventional reservoirs typically contain natural fractures at multiple scales. Considering the importance of these fractures in shale gas production, we perform a rigorous study on the accuracy of different fracture models. The framework is validated against an industrial simulator and is used to perform a history-matching study on the Barnett shale. This work presents an open-source code that leverages cutting-edge numerical modeling capabilities like automatic differentiation, stochastic fracture modeling, multi-continuum modeling and other explicit and discrete fracture models. We modified the conventional mass balance equation to account for the physical mechanisms that are unique to organic-rich source rocks. Some of these include the use of an adsorption isotherm, a dynamic permeability-correction function, and an embedded discrete fracture model (EDFM) with fracture-well connectivity. We explore the accuracy of the EDFM for modeling hydraulically-fractured shale-gas wells, which could be connected to natural fractures of finite or infinite conductivity, and could deform during production. Simulation results indicates that although the EDFM provides a computationally efficient model for describing flow in natural and hydraulic fractures, it could be inaccurate under these three conditions: 1. when the fracture conductivity is very low. 2. when the fractures are not orthogonal to the underlying Cartesian grid blocks, and 3. when sharp pressure drops occur in large grid blocks with insufficient mesh refinement. Each of these results are very significant considering that most of the fluids in these ultra-low matrix permeability reservoirs get produced through the interconnected natural fractures, which are expected to have very low fracture conductivities. We also expect sharp pressure drops near the fractures in these shale gas reservoirs, and it is very unrealistic to expect the hydraulic fractures or complex fracture networks to be orthogonal to any structured grid. In conclusion, this paper presents an open-source numerical framework to facilitate the modeling of the expected physical mechanisms in shale-gas reservoirs. The code was validated against published results and a commercial simulator. We also performed a history-matching study on a naturally-fractured Barnett shale-gas well considering adsorption, gas slippage & diffusion and fracture closure as well as proppant embedment, using the framework presented. This work provides the first open-source code that can be used to facilitate the modeling and optimization of fractured shale-gas reservoirs. To provide the numerical flexibility to accurately model stochastic natural fractures that are connected to hydraulically-fractured wells, it is built atop other related open-source codes. We also present the first rigorous study on the accuracy of using EDFM to model both hydraulic fractures and natural fractures that may or may not be interconnected.

Background: Lynch syndrome, the most frequent form of hereditary colorectal cancer and involves mutations in mismatch repair genes. The aim of this study was to identify mutations in MSH6 from 97 subjects negative for mutations in MLH1 and MSH2. Methods: By direct sequencing, we identified 27 MSH6 variants, of which, nine were novel. To verify the pathogenicity of these novel variants we performed in silico and segregation analyses. Results: Three novel variants were predicted by in silico analysis as damaging mutations and segregated with the disease phenotype. While, a novel frameshift deletion variant that was predicted to yield a premature stop codon, did not segregate with the LS phenotype in 3 of 4 cases in the family. Interestingly, another frame-shift variant identified in this study, already described in the literature, also did not segregate with the LS phenotype in 1 of 2 affected subjects in the family. In all affected subjects of both families, no mutation was detected in other MMR genes. Therefore, it is expected that within these families other genetic factors contribute to the disease either alone or in combination with MSH6 variants. Conclusion: We conclude that caution should be exercised in counseling for MSH6-associated LS family members.

Current therapeutic strategies targeting cancer cells within solid tumors have displayed limited success owing to the presence of non-cancer components referred to as the tumor stroma within the tumor microenvironment (TM). These stromal cells, extracellular matrix and blood vessels influence cancer cell response to therapy and play key roles in tumor relapse and resistance. Of the stromal cells present in the TM, a lot of attention has been given to cancer-associated fibroblasts (CAFs) as they are the most abundant and are important in cancer initiation, progression and therapy resistance. In this updated review I emphasize the role of CAFs in the regulation of tumor cell behaviour and reveal how CAF-derived factors and signaling influence tumor cell heterogeneity and development of novel strategies to combat cancer. To investigate the expression of CAF markers in tumor tissues versus normal tissues, transcriptomic data from The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA) and the Gene Expression Profiling Interactive Analysis (GEPIA) databases was used. Bioinformatic analysis reveals differential expression of CAF markers in several cancer types, underscoring the need for further multiomics and biochemical studies on CAFs, CAF subsets and markers. Differences in CAF markers’ expression could be due to different cellular origins as well as the effect of cancer-specific tumor microenvironmental effect on CAFs. Lastly, I present recent advances in therapeutic targeting of CAFs and the success of such endeavours or its lack thereof. It is recommended that for patients’ outcomes to improve, cancer treatment be combinatorial in nature, targeting both cancer cells and stromal cells and interactions.

Structural deformations are one of the most significant factor that affects machine tool (MT) positioning accuracy. These induced errors are complex to be represented by a model, nevertheless they need to be evaluated and predicted in order to increase the machining performance. This paper presents a novel approach to calibrate a machine tool in real-time, analyzing the thermo-mechanical errors through Fibre Bragg Grating (FBG) sensors embedded in the MT frame. The proposed configuration consists of an adaptronic structure of passive materials, Carbon Fibre Reinforced Polymers (CFRP), equipped by FBG sensors that are able to measure in real-time the deformed conditions of the frame. By using a proper thermo-mechanical kinematic model, the displacement of the end effector may be predicted and corrected when it is subjected to external undesired factors. By starting from a set of FE simulations to develop a model able to describe the MT structure stresses, a prototype has been fabricated and tested. The scope was to compare the numerical model with the experimental tests using FBG sensors. The experimental campaign has been performed varying the structure temperature over time and measuring the tool tip point (TTP) positions. The obtained results showed a substantial matching between the real and the predicted position of TTP confirming the effectiveness of the proposed calibration system.

Implementation of the German Climate change Strategy in the Federal State of Saxony-Anhalt is discussed in this paper. It shares the requirement and importance of sustainable development. An overview of strategy, The DAS Indicator System is provided with results of a portion of work being done for the ministry of agriculture by Deutscher Wetterdienst (DWD). Applicability of the indicator system is also shown by evaluation of results for specific indicators from 1961-2015.

The main objective of this work is the assessment of the annual number of hospital admissions for respiratory disease (HARD) due to the exposure to in-healable particulate matter (PM10), within the greater Athens area (GAA), Greece. Towards this aim, the time series of the particulate matter with aerodynamic diameter less than 10μm (PM10) recorded in six monitoring stations located in the GAA, for a 13-year period 2001-2013, is used. Initially, a descriptive statistical treatment of PM10 concentrations took place. Furthermore, the AirQ2.2.3 software developed by the WHO was used to evaluate adverse health effects by PM10 in the GAA during the examined period. The results show that, during the examined period PM10 concentrations present a significant decreasing trend. Also, the mean annual HARD cases per 100,000 inhabitants ranged between 20 (suburban location) and 40 (city centre location). Approximately 70% of the annual HARD cases are due to city centre residents. In all examined locations, a declining trend in the annual number of HARD cases is appeared. Moreover, a strong relation between the annual number of HARD cases and the annual number of days exceeding the European Union daily PM10 threshold value was found.

Generative artificial intelligence (AI), in particular large language models such as ChatGPT have reached public consciousness with a wide-ranging discussion of their capabilities and suitability for various professions. The extant literature on the ethics of generative AI revolves around its usage and application, rather than the ethical framework of the responses provided. In the education sector, concerns have been raised with regard to the ability of these language models to aid in student assignment writing with the potentially concomitant student misconduct of such work is submitted for assessment. Based on a series of ‘conversations’ with multiple replicates, using a range of discussion prompts, this paper examines the capability of ChatGPT to provide advice on how to cheat in assessments. Since its public release in November 2022, numerous authors have developed ‘jailbreaking’ techniques to trick ChatGPT into answering questions in ways other than the default mode. While the default mode activates a safety awareness mechanism that prevents ChatGPT from providing unethical advice, other modes partially or fully bypass the this mechanism and elicit answers that are outside expected ethical boundaries. ChatGPT provided a wide range of suggestions on how to best cheat in university assignments, with some solutions common to most replicates (‘plausible deniability,’ language adjustment of contract written text’). Some of ChatGPT’s solutions to avoid cheating being detected were cunning, if not slightly devious. The implications of these findings are discussed.

Large Language Models (LLMs) have revolutionized the field of Artificial Intelligence with their ability to understand and generate natural language discourse. This has led to the use of LLMs in various creative fields such as music, art, and storytelling, which has sparked a debate on the impact of LLMs on human creativity. This article explores the cyclic effect of LLMs on human creativity, where LLMs can generate an ever-evolving cycle of creative output from both humans and machines. The article also highlights the importance of responsible and ethical use of LLMs, including privacy and copyright issues with the training data used by LLMs. The article emphasizes the need for transparency, data security measures, and AI governance policies to protect user data and ensure the safe use of LLMs. It also calls for the development of educational materials and resources to increase public understanding of LLMs and their ethical implications. The article concludes by highlighting the potential of LLMs as powerful tools for communication and education, but also emphasizes the need for ethical considerations to ensure the responsible and beneficial use of LLMs in society.

The objective of this study is to evaluate the effect of constitutive equations on the prediction accuracy for springback in cold stamping with various deformation modes. In this study, two types of yield functions—Hill’48 and Yld2000-2d—were considered to describe yield behavior. Isotropic and kinematic hardening models based on the Yoshida–Uemori model were also adopted to describe hardening behavior. Various material tests (such as uniaxial tension, tension- compression, loading-unloading, and hydraulic bulging tests) were carried out to determine the material parameters of the models. The obtained parameters were implemented in the finite element (FE) simulation to predict springback, and the results were compared with experimental data. U-bending and T-shape drawing were employed to evaluate the springback prediction accuracy. Obviously, the springback prediction accuracy was greatly influenced by constitutive equations. Therefore, it is important to choose appropriate constitutive equations for accurate description of material behaviors in FE simulation.

With the development of higher voltage power grid, the high and low voltage parallel loops are emerging, which lead to energy losses, even threaten the security and stability of power system. The multi-infeed HVDC configurations widely appearing in AC/DC interconnected power system make this situation even worse. Aimed at energy saving and system security, a decision optimization method for power grid operating condition with high and low voltage parallel loops is proposed in this paper. Firstly, considering hub substation distribution and power grid structure, parallel loop opening schemes are generated with GN algorithm. Then, candidate opening schemes are preliminarily selected from all these generated schemes based on a filtering index. Finally, with the influence on power system security, stability and operation economy in consideration, an evaluation model for candidate opening schemes is founded based on analytic hierarchy process (AHP). And a fuzzy evaluation algorithm is used to find the optimal scheme. Simulation results of New England 39-bus system and an actual power system validate the effectiveness and superiority of this proposed method.

Assuming a Winterberg model for space where the vacuum consists of a very stiff two component superfluid made up of positive and negative mass planckions, theory is the hypothesis, that Planck charge, , was created at the same time as Planck mass. Moreover, the repulsive force that like-mass planckions experience is, in reality, due to the electrostatic force of repulsion between like charges. These forces also give rise to what appears to be a gravitational force of attraction between two like planckions, but this is an illusion. In reality, gravity is electrostatic in origin if our model is correct. We determine the spring constant associated with planckion masses, and find that, , where equals Apery's constant, , and, , is the relaxed, i.e., , number density of the positive and negative mass planckions. In the present epoch, we estimate that, equals, , and the relaxed distance of separation between nearest neighbor positive, or negative, planckion pairs is, These values were determined using box quantization for the positive and negative mass planckions, and considering transitions between energy states, much like as in the hydrogen atom. For the cosmos as a whole, given a net smeared macroscopic gravitational field of, , due to all the ordinary, and bound, matter contained within the observable universe, an average displacement from equilibrium for the planckion masses is a mere , within the vacuum made up of these particles. On the surface of the earth, where, , the displacement amounts to, . All of these displacements are due to increased gravitational pressure within the vacuum, which in turn are caused by applied gravitational fields. The gravitational potential is also derived and directly related to gravitational pressure.

Analysis of SARS-CoV-2 spike protein sequences of over 19 countries from biological databases submitted around the globe was carried out with help of bioinformatics tools and structure prediction databases. Initial data analysis showed entry of virus into different geographic regions started in the month of January 2020. Meanwhile, alignment of spike protein sequences of SARS-CoV-2 isolates from China and other countries revealed a critical mutation of D614G. Surprisingly, mutation D614G was not seen in early samples submitted in the month of January but gradually it started appearing globally from the month of March 2020. However, the mutations of amino acids in the spike protein other than D614G exhibiting similar pI and altered polarity were found to be specific to geographical regions. Besides, prediction of homology model for interaction of spike protein showed predominant role of chain C of trimeric spike protein in adhering receptor binding domain (RBD) of human ACE2 receptor. Furthermore, the prediction of glycosylation points has revealed that there are about 20 N-glycosylation potential sites on spike protein. We believe that the information present here would not only help in thorough understanding of infectivity but also enhance the knowledge of the scientific community in developing prophylactics and/or therapeutics for SARS-CoV19-2 virus.

In India the first case of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) reported on 30 January 2020, and thereafter cases were increasing daily after the last week of Feb. 2020. COVID-19 identified as family member of coronaviridae where previously Middle East Respiratory Syndrome MERS and Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome SARS belongs to same family. The COVID-19 attacks on respiratory system signing fever, cough and breath shortness, in severe cases may cause pneumonia, SARS or some time death. The aim of this study work is to develop model which predicts the epidemic peak for COVID-19 in India by using the real-time data from 30 Jan to 10 May 2020. There are uncertainties while identifying the population information due to the incomplete and inaccurate data, we initiate the most popular model for epidemic prediction i.e Susceptible, Exposed, Infectious, & Recovered SEIR initially the compartmental model for the prediction. Based on the solution of the state estimation problem for polynomial system with Poisson noise, we estimate that the epidemic peak may reach the early-middle July 2020, initializing recovered R0 to 0 and Infected I0 to 1. The outcomes of the model will help epidemiologist to isolate the source of the disease geospatially and analyze the death. Also government authorities will be able to target their interventions for rapidly checking the spread of the epidemic.

A numerical mechanism connecting ice algal ecodynamics with the buildup of organic macromolecules is tested within modeled pan-Arctic brine channels. The simulations take place offline in a reduced representation of sea ice geochemistry. Physical driver quantities derive from the global sea ice code CICE, including snow cover, thickness and internal temperature. The framework is averaged over ten boreal biogeographic zones. Computed nutrient-light-salt limited algal growth supports grazing, mortality and carbon flow. Vertical transport is diffusive but responds to pore structure. Simulated bottom layer chlorophyll maxima are reasonable, though delayed by about a month relative to observations due to uncertainties in snow variability. Upper level biota arise intermittently during flooding events. Macromolecular concentrations are tracked as proxy proteins, polysaccharides, lipids and refractory humics. The fresh biopolymers undergo succession and removal by bacteria. Baseline organics enter solely through cell disruption, so that the internal carbon content is initially biased low. By including exudation, agreement with dissolved organic or individual biopolymer data is achieved given strong release coupled to light intensity. Detrital carbon then reaches hundreds of micromolar, sufficient to support structural changes to the ice matrix.

The core of risk aggregation in the Solvency II Standard Formula is the so-called square root formula. We argue that it should be seen as a means for the aggregation of different risks to an overall risk rather than being associated with variance-covariance based risk analysis. Considering the Solvency II Standard Formula from the viewpoint of linear geometry, we immediately find that it defines a norm and therefore provides a homogeneous and sub-additive tool for risk aggregation. Hence Euler's Principle for the reallocation of risk capital applies and yields explicit formulas for capital allocation in the framework given by the Solvency II Standard Formula. This gives rise to the definition of diversification functions, which we define as monotone, subadditive, and homogeneous functions on a convex cone. Diversification functions constitute a class of models for the study of the aggregation of risk, and diversification. The aggregation of risk measures using a diversification function preserves the respective properties of these risk measures. Examples of diversification functions are given by seminorms, which are monotone on the convex cone of non-negative vectors. Each L^p norm has this property, and any scalar product given by a non-negative positive semidefinite matrix does as well. In particular, the Standard Formula is a diversification function and hence a risk measure that preserves homogeneity, subadditivity, and convexity.

We develop a mathematical model to provide epidemic predictions for the 2019-nCov epidemic in Wuhan, China. We use reported case data up to January 31, 2020 from the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention and the Wuhan Municipal Health Commission to parameterize the model. From the parameterized model we identify the number of unreported cases. We then use the model to project the epidemic forward with varying level of public health interventions. The model predictions emphasize the importance of major public health interventions in controlling 2019-nCov epidemics.

The COVID-19 pandemic situation, disease intensity, weak healthcare facilities, unawareness, and misinformation led people to fear and anxiety in Bangladesh. This study intended to get peoples’ perception on psychosocial, socio-economic and environmental crisis amidst the pandemi. An online questionnaire was surveyed nationwide (respondents no.1066). Datasets were analyzed through the Principal Component Analysis (PCA), hierarchical Cluster Analysis (CA), Pearson’s correlation matrix (PCM), Linear regression analysis (LRA), and psychometric characteristics were included in the Classical Test Theory (CTT) analysis. There were good associations among the psychosocial, socio-economic and environmental parameters. A significant association between fear of COVID-19 with struggling healthcare system (p<0.05) was found. Also, negative association between fragile health system and government’s ability to deal with the pandemic (p<0.05) revealing poor governance. Again, a positive association of shutdown and social distancing with fear of losing life, and due to lack of health treatment (p<0.05) reveals that shut down hampers normal activities which may lead to mental and economic stress. However, a positive association of socio-economic impact of the shutdown with poor people’s suffering, the price hike of basic need, hamper of formal education (p<0.05) may lead to severe socio-economic and health crisis. There is a possibility of climate-induced disaster during/after the pandemic, which will create severe food insecurity (p<0.01). Daily wage earners and poors will suffer most by food and nutritional deficiency, and the country may face huge economic burden. Proper risk assessment and communications is needed to alleviate fear and anxiety. Thus, financial support and mental boosting is required.

Finding a good MIMO system model also major issue in Wireless Communication system. It is facing with so many problem, one of the major problem is finding good system model in terms of capacity and transmitting antenna system. In this paper, we analyze the channel capacity of various MIMO system model with some constant SNR level and outage probability. We establish a novel idea for MIMO system models as consider as 2^N- MIMO system model and find-out change in channel capacity when different transmitting antennas with constant SNR and outage probability. The channel capacity ratio CC_R is presented here on the basis of 2^N- MIMO channel capacity model. Number of transmitted antenna presented in MIMO system is increases is well-known however paper shows change in capacity in simple form.

The economic, social and environmental benefits generated by the use of urban public transportation infrastructure constitute a complex dynamic urban public transportation infrastructure utilization benefit system. This paper evaluates the coupling coordination among these three benefits taking four Chinese autonomous municipalities as an example. These four cities have large-scale urban public transportation infrastructures but their utilization has many serious problems. The basic function of urban public transportation infrastructure has not been fully played in these cities. Whether the different benefits of urban public transportation infrastructure have been developed in harmony or not is unclear. We analyzed the coordinated development among three benefits by constructing coupling coordination degree model and used Gini coefficient to study the difference of coordinated development among three benefits of four cities. The result shows that the levels of coordinated development among three benefits of urban public transportation infrastructure were lower in these four cities and have positive correlation with it of urban public transportation infrastructure utilization benefit. Raising the level of urban public transportation infrastructure utilization benefit is the most crucial solution of promoting the coordinated development among three benefits.

The modeling of flood-induced bend scour near embankment toes can provide important information for river engineering, embankment safety warnings, and emergency action management. During the rainy seasons, short-term general scour and bend scour are the most common causes for the failure of reinforced concrete embankments in Taiwan. To gain a deeper understanding of the scouring process near levee foundations, this study proposed a straightforward and practical method for bend scour simulation. The proposed simulation method is subdivided into three stages: two-dimensional flow simulation, general scour estimation, and bend scour estimation. A new bend-scour computation equation is proposed and incorporated into a two-dimensional hydraulic finite-volume model for simulating the evolution of bend scour depth around embankment toes. The proposed method is applied to simulate the temporal evolution of bend scouring near the Shuideliaw Embankment on the Cho-Shui River in Taiwan, where serious failure occurred during the June 2012 monsoon. Field data were gathered using the numbered-brick technique at the Shuideliaw Embankment to demonstrate the accuracy of the proposed method. The results of the bend scour simulations compared reasonably well with field measurements, indicating close agreement in terms of water levels and bend scour depths near the Shuideliaw Embankment. The proposed method was found to quickly estimate the maximum short-term general scour and bend scour depths for further enhancement of the safety of the embankment toe.

Studies employing Arellano-Bond and Blundell-Bond GMM estimation for single linear dynamic panel data models are growing exponentially in number. However, for researchers it is hard to make a reasoned choice between many different possible implementations of these estimators and associated tests. By simulation the effects are examined of many options regarding: (i) reducing, extending or modifying the set of instruments; (ii) specifying the weighting matrix in relation to the type of heteroskedasticity; (iii) using (robustified) 1-step or (corrected) 2-step variance estimators; (iv) employing 1-step or 2-step residuals in Sargan-Hansen overall or incremental overidentification restrictions tests. This is all done for models in which some regressors may be either strictly exogenous, predetermined or endogenous. Surprisingly, particular asymptotically optimal and relatively robust weighting matrices are found to be superior in finite samples to ostensibly more appropriate versions. Most of the variants of tests for overidentification restrictions show serious deficiencies. A recently developed modification of GMM is found to have great potential when the cross-sectional heteroskedasticity is pronounced and the time-series dimension of the sample not too small. Finally all techniques are employed to actual data and lead to some profound insights.

This paper addresses the modeling of the iron ore direct reduction process, a process likely to reduce CO₂ emissions from the steel industry. The shaft furnace is divided into three sections (reduction, transition, and cooling), and the model is two-dimensional (cylindrical geometry for the upper sections and conical geometry for the lower one), to correctly describe the lateral gas feed and cooling gas outlet. This model relies on a detailed description of the main physical–chemical and thermal phenomena, using a multi-scale approach. The moving bed is assumed to be comprised of pellets of grains and crystallites. We also take into account eight heterogeneous and two homogeneous chemical reactions. The local mass, energy, and momentum balances are numerically solved, using the finite volume method. This model was successfully validated by simulating the shaft furnaces of two direct reduction plants of different capacities. The calculated results reveal the detailed interior behavior of the shaft furnace operation. Eight different zones can be distinguished, according to their predominant thermal and reaction characteristics. An important finding is the presence of a central zone of lesser temperature and conversion.

There must exist a reformulation of quantum field theory, even at low energies, which does not depend on classical time. The octonionic theory proposes such a reformulation, leading to a pre-quantum pre-spacetime theory. The ingredients for constructing such a theory, which is also a unification of the standard model with gravitation, are : (i) the pre-quantum theory of trace dynamics – a matrix-valued Lagrangian dynamics, (ii) the spectral action principle of non-commutative geometry, (iii) the number system known as the octonions, for constructing a non-commutative manifold and for defining elementary particles via Clifford algebras, (iv) a Lagrangian with $E_8 \times E_8$ symmetry. The split bioctonions define a sixteen dimensional space (with left-right symmetry) whose geometry (evolving in Connes time) relates to the four known fundamental forces, while predicting two new forces, $SU(3)_{grav}$ and $U(1)_{grav}$. This latter interaction is possibly the theoretical origin of MOND. Coupling constants of the standard model result from left-right symmetry breaking, and their values are theoretically determined by the characteristic equation of the exceptional Jordan algebra of the octonions. The quantum-to-classical transition, precipitated by the entanglement of a critical number of fermions, is responsible for the emergence of classical spacetime, and also for the familiar formulation of quantum theory on a spacetime background.

REDD+ (Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation) aims to achieve its purpose by working across multiple sectors and involving multi-level actors in reducing deforestation and forest degradation in tropical countries. By contrast, the European Union (EU) Action Plan on Forest Law Enforcement, Governance and Trade (FLEGT) and its Voluntary Partnership Agreements (VPAs) focus on forestry and functions at bilateral state level. The FLEGT Action Plan specifically aims to tackle illegal logging, legalise timber production and trade improve forest governance in countries exporting tropical timber to the EU. Since illegal logging is just one driver of deforestation and forest degeneration, and legalisation of logging does not necessarily reduce deforestation and forest degradation, the two instruments differ in scale and scope. However, by addressing the causes of deforestation and forest degradation and their underlying governance issues, the EU FLEGT and REDD+ share many functional linkages at higher levels of forest policy and forest governance. The contribution and participation of civil society organisations (CSOs) and other actors is imperative to both processes. Our study is based on a survey of key actors (national and international) in REDD+ and FLEGT VPA processes in the Lao People’s Democratic Republic. Our analysis was guided by the theoretical perspectives of the policy arrangement approach and examination of two specific dimensions of this approach, namely resources and rules of the game. This paper argues that participation of CSOs in both processes is crucial as it facilitates and nurtures the very much needed cooperation between other national and international actors. The paper also argues that participation of CSOs feeds valuable information and knowledge into REDD+ and FLEGT VPA processes, thus contributing to increased legitimacy, justice and transparency.

Here we mathematically model black holes and the early universe following dynamics similar to RLC electrical models, focusing on their similarities at the singularity. We use this mathematically modelling to hypothesize the evolution of an expanding universe as the result of a black hole collapse followed by its evaporation. Or model consists of several steps defined by: (1) the formation of a black hole following general relativity equations; (2) growth of the black hole modelled as a resistance-capacitance-like electrical circuit; (3) expansion of space-time following the disintegration of the black hole, modelled by RLC-like dynamics. In updating this article, version 2, we will expand by presenting three additional examples related to the theory of the generalization Boltzmann's constant in curved space-time and the theory of general and especial relativity. We will calculate the critical mass to produce a black hole in the LHC, the existence of a high temperature Bose-Einstein condensate and finally we will demonstrate the existence of a tangential force to the repulsion force in the disintegration of subatomic particles. In the update of this article, version 3, we will expand to develop two examples. First, we will present the relationship between M-theory, extra dimensions with the theory of the generalization of Boltzmann's constant in curved space-time. Secondly, we will propose the idea of ​​updating the Lambda-CDM model, considering the primordial gravitational waves to correctly describe the evolution of the universe.

For improving the tracking accuracy and model switching speed of maneuvering target tracking in nonlinear systems, a new algorithm named interacting multiple model fifth-degree spherical simplex-radial cubature filter (IMM5thSSRCKF) is proposed in this paper. The new algorithm is a combination of the interacting multiple model (IMM) filter and fifth-degree spherical simplex-radial cubature filter (5thSSRCKF). The proposed algorithm makes use of Markov process to describe the switching probability among the models, and uses 5thSSRCKF to deal with the state estimation of each model. The 5thSSRCKF is an improved filter algorithm, which utilizes the fifth-degree spherical simplex-radial rule to improve the filtering accuracy. Finally, the tracking performance of the IMM5thSSRCKF is evaluated by simulation in a typical maneuvering target tracking scenario. Simulation results show that the proposed algorithm has better tracking performance and quicker model switching speed when disposing maneuver models compared with IMMUKF, IMMCKF and IMM5thCKF.

HPV vaccine induces a herd immunity effect in genital warts when a large number of the population is vaccinated. That aspect should be taken into account when devising new vaccine strategies, like vaccination at older ages or male vaccination. Therefore it is important to develop mathematical models with good predictive capacities. We devised a sexual contact network that was calibrated to simulate the Spanish epidemiology of different HPV genotypes. Through this model we simulated the scenario that occurred in Australia in 2007, where 12-13 year-old girls where vaccinated with a three-dose schedule of a vaccine containing genotypes 6 and 11, that protect against genital warts, and also a catch-up program in women up to 26 years of age. Vaccine coverage were 73 % in girls with three doses and with coverage rates decreasing with age until 52 % for 20-26 year-olds. A fast 59 % reduction in the genital warts diagnoses occurred in the model in the first years after the start of the program, similar to what was described in the literature.

Arc sensors have been used in seam tracking and widely studied since the 80s; commercial arc sensing products for T and V shaped grooves have been developed. However, it is difficult to use these arc sensors in narrow gap welding because arc stability and sensing accuracy are not satisfactory. Pulse gas melting arc welding (P-GMAW) has been successfully applied in narrow gap welding and all position welding processes, so it is worthwhile to research P-GMAW arc sensing technology. In this paper, we derived a linear mathematical P-GMAW model for arc sensing, and the assumptions for the model are verified through experiments and finite element methods. Finally, the linear characteristics of the mathematical model were investigated. In torch height changing experiments, uphill experiments, and groove angle changing experiments the P-GMAW arc signals all satisfied the linear rules. In addition, the faster the welding speed, the higher the arc signal sensitivities; the smaller the groove angle, the greater the arc sensitivities. The arc signal variation rate needs to be modified according to the welding power, groove angles, and swing or rotate speed.

In the paper, by virtue of the Fa`a di Bruno formula, some properties of the Bell polynomials of the second kind, and the inversion formulas of binomial numbers and the Stirling numbers of the first and second kinds, the authors simplify meaningfully and significantly coefficients in two families of ordinary differential equations associated with higher order Frobenius–Euler numbers.

The three-dimensional Ising model on the m$\times$n$\times$l cubic lattice with the screw boundary condition along the ${\bf X}$ direction and the periodic boundary conditions along both ${\bf Y}$ and ${\bf Z}$ directions is exactly solved by using the $2^{mn}$-dimensional representation of the rotation group in $2mn$-dimensions, similar to the Kaufman's spinor approach in two dimensions. The exact partition function is obtained from two sets of $2^{mn-1}$ eigenvalues of the $2^{mn}$-dimensional transfer matrix {\bf V} corresponding to the even and odd eigenvectors, respectively. Such the eigenvalues are determined by the angles of the 2mn-dimensional rotation associated with {\bf V}.

In this paper, a land utilization efficiency evaluation model, which takes environmental loss into consideration, has been structured via taking advantage of the slack-based measure (SBM) model. Meanwhile, based on the panel data from 280 prefecture-level cities in China from 2003 to 2013, the paper thoroughly probed into, and discussed, the effect imposed by industry clustering and specialization on the utilization efficiency of urban land. Research results indicate several conclusions, as follows: (1) Taking environmental loss into account, the land utilization efficiency of prefecture-level cities in China is generally low. During the research period, the average value of the land utilization efficiency of prefecture-level cities in China is only 0.349, with, first, a declining trend, and then a rise. Geographically speaking, the land utilization efficiency presents a “depression in the center” phenomenon which means the land utilization efficiency of prefecture-level cities in the central China are relatively lower than in the east and west. Now, the difference among the urban land utilization efficiency in China significantly reflects the distinctions among Eastern, Western, and Central China. Moreover, the contribution degree of the difference of the land utilization efficiency among cities of central China to the aggregation difference shows an ascending momentum. Additionally, the relation between the population scale and land utilization efficiency in cities manifests as a U shape; (2) theoretically speaking, the relation between industry clustering and urban land utilization efficiency presents an inverted-U shape. However, this kind of relation is not significant in Western and Central China and medium-sized cities. Moreover, most of cities are still relatively far away from the inflection point or the critical value; and (3) the industry professional level has imposed a positive influence on urban land utilization efficiency. However, that influence is not significant in Eastern China and large cities. Consequently, strengthening the industry professional development of Western and Central China and small and medium-sized cities, facilitating diversified development of industries in Eastern China and large cities, and accelerating industrial clustering, all of these measures above will be conducive to improving urban land utilization efficiency in China.

The Estimation of systemic risk in India is still in its infancy stage. There are several methods which are available but none of the methods are fully compatible to forecast the systemic risk since under different circumstances the factors responsible for the risk differs. In this paper the systemic risk estimation in India being carried out based on spread in daily stock market price(Difference between the bid and ask price of a share) of the top 100 firms in India according to market capitalization for the period of July2007 to March 2016. The results were compared with the Financial Stability Report published by Reserve Bank Of India for the period of March 2010 to June 2016.The results clearly indicates that there exits relationship between market illiquidity represented by spread and risks associated with the Financial System. In most of the cases the Z score (deviation from the mean/Standard Deviation) of the spread has become negative which provides the spread which is farther from the mean, also a good indicator of volatility in market and risk to financial system. It is also seen that the Systemic Risk Survey conducted by Reserve Bank of India which started during October 2011 has supported the results.

In this paper, a semi-empirical model of air waves induced by falling rock is described. The model is composed of a uniform motion phase (velocity close to 0 m·s^-1) and an acceleration movement phase. The uniform motion phase was determined based on experimentally and the acceleration movement phase was derived by theoretical analysis. A series of experiments were performed to verify the semi-empirical model and elucidated the law of the uniform motion phase. The acceleration movement phase accounted for a larger portion with a greater height of the falling rock. Experimental results of different falling heights of the goaf showed close agreement with theoretical analysis values. The semi-empirical model could accurately and conveniently estimate the velocity of air wave induced by falling rock. Thus, the semi-empirical model can provide a reference and basis for estimating the speed of air waves and designing protective measures in mines.

Here we mathematically model black holes following dynamics similar to RC electrical model, focusing on their similarities at the singularity. We use this mathematically modelling to hypothesize the origin and growth of a black Hole. Or model consists of several steps defined by: (1) the formation of a black hole following general relativity equations; (2) growth of the black hole modelled as a resistance-capacitance-like electrical circuit. Based on the mathematical modeling of a black hole following dynamics similar to an RC circuit, for a circular motion with constant acceleration, in which the condition is fulfilled, Vt = ω r, we are going to calculate the amount of dark matter in the Milky Way galaxies and the Andromeda galaxy and subsequently the rotation curve of both galaxies to compare them with observed or measured values.

Statistical modeling lies at the heart of product design and development throughout numerous engineering disciplines, especially since processing large amounts of data has become increasingly ubiquitous. While mathematical statistics provide elegant guidance pertaining to the question of whether or not some particular underlying modeling assumptions are justified and appropriate, when pursuing a more comprehensive assessment of product design and development other considerations often increase in significance. Therefore, we will examine and analyze the tedious interactions and implications of statistical modeling choices and product liability exposure. To the best of our knowledge, this paper is the first to draw attention to and explore some often overlooked or oversimplified dangers and pitfalls that enter the equation when product design heavily relies on statistical modeling. In particular, through a diligent analysis of both statistical and legal aspects we will explore how statistically optimal procedures may yield far from optimal outcomes in terms of product liability when applied to actual real life problems and why suboptimal nonparametric or robust approaches may constitute better alternatives.

Enterprises that seek for sustainable development should align economic interests with environmental and social requirements. It is not enough to take into account just these basics components. Technology plays a significant role in company activity. The aim of this article is to highlight the relationship between the dimensions characterising sustainability and to take a deeper look at the structure of the concept of sustainability so that to understand in more detail the completeness of the dimensions of sustainability. For achieving this aim is necessary through the analysis of researchers’ opinions to apply the logical assessment, systematisation, and comparison of information, selects the most important information describing the sustainability of technology, highlights the relationships between the technological aspect of sustainability and other sustainability dimensions, evaluates the technological processes of the corporate product in terms of sustainability, clarifies and presents arguments highlighting the importance of the technological aspect in sustainable business activity, rejects inappropriate arguments, identifies links between the arguments, and, basing on the information, proves and/or formulates anew some logical considerations to justify the full competency of the technological dimension in the sustainable development framework.

The purpose of this work is to present an adaptive sliding mode luenberger state observer with improved disturbance rejection capability and better tracking performance under dynamic conditions. The sliding hyperplane is altered by incorporating the estimated disturbance torque with the stator currents. Also, the effects of parameter detuning on the speed convergence is observed and compared with the conventional disturbance rejection mechanism. The entire drive system is first built in simulink environment. Then, the simulink model is integrated with RT-Lab blocksets and implemented in a relatively new real-time environment using OP4500 real-time simulator. Real-time simulation and testing platforms have succeeded offline simulation and testing tools due to their reduced development time. The real-time results validate the improvement in the proposed state observer and also correspond to the performance of the actual physical model.

In the last decades synthetic jet actuators have gained much interest among the flow control techniques due to their short response time, high jet velocity and absence of traditional piping, that matches the requirements of reduced size and low weight. A synthetic jet is generated by the diaphragm oscillation (generally driven by a piezoelectric element) in a relatively small cavity, producing periodic cavity pressure variations associated with cavity volume changes. The pressured air exhausts through an orifice, converting diaphragm electrodynamic energy into jet kinetic energy. This review paper faces the development of various lumped-element models (LEMs) as practical tools to design and manufacture the actuators. LEMs can quickly predict device performances such as the frequency response in terms of diaphragm displacement, cavity pressure and jet velocity, as well as the efficiency of energy conversion of input Joule power into useful kinetic power of air jet. The actuator performance is analyzed also by varying typical geometric parameters such as cavity height and orifice diameter and length, through a suited dimensionless form of the governing equations. A comprehensive and detailed physical modeling aimed to evaluate the device efficiency is introduced, shedding light on the different stages involved in the process. Overall, the influence of the coupling degree of the two oscillators, the diaphragm and the Helmholtz’s one, on the device performance is discussed throughout the paper.

In this paper new upper limits on the parameters of the Continuous Spontaneous Localization (CSL) collapse model are extracted. To this end the X-ray emission data collected by the IGEX collaboration are analyzed and compared with the spectrum of the spontaneous photon emission process predicted by collapse models. This study allows to obtain the most stringent limits within a relevant range of the CSL model parameters, with respect to any other method. The collapse rate $\lambda$ and the correlation length $r_C$ are mapped, thus allowing to exclude a broad range of the parameter space.

During the past two decades of e-commerce growth, the concept of a business model has become increasingly popular. More recently, the research on this realm has grown rapidly, with diverse research activity covering a wide range of application areas. Considering the sustainable development goals, the innovative business models have brought a competitive advantage to improve the sustainability performance of organizations. The concept of the sustainable business model describes the rationale of how an organization creates, delivers, and captures value, in economic, social, cultural, or other contexts, in a sustainable way. The process of sustainable business model construction forms an innovative part of a business strategy. Different industries and businesses have utilized sustainable business models’ concept to satisfy their economic, environmental, and social goals simultaneously. However, the success, popularity, and progress of sustainable business models in different application domains are not clear. To explore this issue, this research provides a comprehensive review of sustainable business models literature in various application areas. Notable sustainable business models are identified and further classified in fourteen unique categories, and in every category, the progress -either failure or success- has been reviewed, and the research gaps are discussed. Taxonomy of the applications includes innovation, management and marketing, entrepreneurship, energy, fashion, healthcare, agri-food, supply chain management, circular economy, developing countries, engineering, construction and real estate, mobility and transportation, and hospitality. The key contribution of this study is that it provides an insight into the state of the art of sustainable business models in various application areas and future research directions. This paper concludes that popularity and the success rate of sustainable business models in all application domains have been increased along with the increasing use of advanced technologies.

A construction for the systems of natural and real numbers is presented in Zermelo-Fraenkel Set Thoery, that allows for simple proofs of the properties of these systems, and practical and mathematical applications. A practical application is discussed, in the form of a Simple and Linear Fast Adder (Patent Pending). Applications to finite group theory and analysis are also presented. A method is illustrated for finding the automorphisms of any finite group $G$, which consists of defining a canonical block form for finite groups. Examples are given, to illustrate the procedure for finding all groups of $n$ elements along with their automorphisms. The canonical block form of the symmetry group $\Delta_4$ is provided along with its automorphisms. The construction of natural numbers is naturally generalized to provide a simple and sound construction of the continuum with order and addition properties, and where a real number is an infinite set of natural numbers. A basic outline of analysis is proposed with a fast derivative algorithm. Under this representation, a countable sequence of real numbers is represented by a single real number. Furthermore, an infinite $\infty\times\infty$ real-valued matrix is represented with a single real number. A real function is represented by a set of real numbers, and a countable sequence of real functions is also represented by a set of real numbers. In general, mathematical objects can be represented using the smallest possible data type and these representations are calculable. In the last section, mathematical objects of all types are well assigned to tree structures in a proposed type hierarchy.

As paradigm of complex behavior, Self-organized Criticality (SOC) reflects the ability of nonequilibrium dynamical systems to self-adjust into metastable states that are scale independent. The goal of this report is to tentatively show that the hierarchy of Standard Model masses and mixing angles follows from the universal scaling attributes of SOC.

This article considers the concepts of sustainability and sustainable development in relation to disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation. We conceptualize sustainability from a social systemic perspective, that is, from a perspective that encompasses the multiple functionalities of a social system and their interrelationships in particular environmental contexts. The systems perspective is applied in our consideration and analysis of disaster risk reduction (DRR), climate change adaptation (CCA), and sustainable development (SD). Section 1 introduces briefly sustainability and sustainable development, followed by a brief presentation of the theory of complex social systems (Section 2). The theory conceptualizes interdependent subsystems, their multiple functionalities, and the agential and systemic responses to internal and external stressors on a social system. Section 3 considers disaster risk reduction (DRR) and climate change adaptation (CCA), emerging in response to one or more systemic stressors. It illustrates these with disaster risk reduction in the cases of food and chemical security regulation in the EU. CCA is illustrated by initiatives and developments on the island of Gotland, Sweden and in the Gothenburg Metropolitan area, which go beyond a limited CCA perspective, taking into account long-term sustainability issues. Section 4 discusses the limitations of DRR and CCA, not only their technical limitations but economic, socio-cultural, and political limitations, as informed from a sustainability perspective. It is argued that DRRs are only partial subsystems and must be considered and assessed in the context of a more encompassing systemic perspective. Part of the discussion is focused on the distinction between sustainable and non-sustainable DRRs and CCAs. Section 5 presents a few concluding remarks about the importance of a systemic perspective in analyzing DRR and CCA as well as other similar subsystems in terms of sustainable development.

In the paper, the authors present unified generalizations for the Bell numbers and polynomials, establish explicit formulas and inversion formulas for these generalizations in terms of the Stirling numbers of the first and second kinds with the help of the Faà di Bruno formula, properties of the Bell polynomials of the second kind, and the inversion theorem connected with the Stirling numbers of the first and second kinds, construct determinantal and product inequalities for these generalizations with aid of properties of the completely monotonic functions, and derive the logarithmic convexity for the sequence of these generalizations.

The Late Bronze Age on the territory of Southern Transurals is represented by two major archeological cultures: Srubnaya and Andronovskaya (Alakul culture and Fyodorovskaya – type). Their interaction of constitutes a special mix of material cultures which preserves common features of two independent, Srubnaya and Andronovskaya cultures, but also creates novel local material features. These cultural groups are also known to have brought to the region the technology of bronze production. This is evidenced, amongst others, by the proximity of the largest copper mining in the region, Kargaly mines Chernykh (2002). New methods to produce ceramics and to work bones were also developed, combining two traditions, coming from Srubnaya and Andronovskaya cultures respectively. Importantly, the features of these cultures are commonly encountered together in a single cultural horizon across the distribution ares. These diffusion processes took place in a vast area (more than 120,000 km²) andwere reflected in archeological micro-district of the Urshak river basin. We present here the most recent results of the scientific examination of the Late Bronze Age settlements in southern Transurals and attempt to address a peculiar cultural co-habitation of two distinct cultural groups in this region. We also discuss their synchronism based on absolute dates and elaborate on this cultural syncretism in the entire territory of the Volga-Ural region.

Strategic researches on green mine construction are of great theoretical and practical significance to the sustainable development of China's mining industry as well as the great-leap-forward development strategies of China. Strategies of green mine construction in China are methods summarized to solve all potential problems from mine production to ecological restoration. At present, strategies of green mine construction in China are not fully evaluated and studied yet. Therefore, on the basis of green mine construction related literatures carried out by researchers in China and abroad, this study took the green mine of Yongcheng City in China as the research object to evaluate the current situation of green mine construction in Yongcheng City and put forward corresponding countermeasures. First of all, driving force-pressure-state-impact-response (DPSIR) model was introduced for the construction of evaluation index system; construction principles and selection methods of indexes and the index system based on driving force, pressure, state, impact and response were constructed. Secondly, principal component analysis (PCA) was adopted to calculate and evaluate data of green mine of Yongcheng City in recent years, and construction state of green mine in Yongcheng City was analyzed concretely according to the evaluation results. Empirical results showed that, the evaluation system constructed in this study was feasible, which could be applied to evaluate construction of green mine effectively.

In the paper, by virtue of the Faà di Bruno formula, some properties of the Bell polynomials of the second kind, and an inversion formula for the Stirling numbers of the first and second kinds, the authors establish meaningfully and significantly two identities which simplify coefficients in a family of ordinary differential equations associated with higher order Bernoulli numbers of the second kind.

We propose a model for gravity based on the gravitational polarization of space. With this model, we can relate the density parameters within the Friedmann model, and show that dark matter is bound mass formed from massive dipoles set up within the vacuum surrounding ordinary matter. Aggregate matter induces a gravitational field within the surrounding space, which reinforces the original field. Dark energy, on the other hand, is the energy density associated with gravitational fields both for ordinary matter, and bound, or induced dipole matter. At high CBR temperatures, the cosmic susceptibility, induced by ordinary matter vanishes, as it is a smeared or average value for the cosmos as a whole. Even though gravitational dipoles do exist, no large scale alignment or ordering is possible. Our model assumes that space, i.e., the vacuum, is filled with a vast assembly (sea) of positive and negative mass particles having Planck mass, called planckions, which is based on extensive work by Winterberg. These original particles form a very stiff two component superfluid, where positive and negative mass species neutralize one another already at the submicroscopic level, leading to zero net mass, zero net gravitational pressure, and zero net entropy, for the undisturbed medium. It is theorized that the gravitational dipoles form from such material positive and negative particles, and moreover, this causes an intrinsic polarization of the vacuum for the universe as a whole. We calculate that in the present epoch, the smeared or average susceptibility of the cosmos equals, , and the overall resulting polarization equals, . Moreover, due to all the ordinary mass in the universe, made up of quarks and leptons, we calculate a net gravitational field having magnitude, . This smeared or average value permeates all of space, and can be deduced by any observer, irrespective of location within the universe. This net gravitational field is forced upon us by Gauss’s law, and although technically a surface gravitational field, it is argued that this surface, smeared value holds point for point in the observable universe. A complete theory of gravitational polarization is presented. In contrast to electrostatics, gravistatics leads to anti-screening of the original source field, increasing the original value, , to, , where is the induced or polarized field. In the present epoch, this leads to a bound mass, , where is the sum of all ordinary source matter in the universe, and equals the relative permittivity. A new radius, and new mass, for the observable universe is dictated by the density parameters in Friedmann's equation, and Gauss’s law. These lead to the very precise values, , and, , respectively, somewhat larger than current less accurate estimates.

The rapid growth of the smart Internet of Things (IoT) and massive propagation of wireless technologies revealed the recent opportunities for development in various domains of real life such as smart cities and E-Health applications. A slight defense against different forms of attacks is offered for the current secure and lightweight Routing Protocol for Low Power and Lossy Networks (RPL) of IoT resource-constrained devices. Data packets are highly likely to be exposed while transmitting them during data packets routing. The RPL rank and version number attacks, which are two forms of RPL attacks, can have critical consequences for RPL networks. The studies conducted on these attacks have several security defects and performance shortcomings. The research proposes a Secure RPL Routing Protocol (SRPL-RP) for rank and version number attacks. It mainly detects, mitigates and isolates attacks in the RPL networks. The detection is based on a comparison of ranks strategy. The mitigation uses threshold and attacks status tables, and the isolation adds them to a blacklist table and alerts relevant nodes to skip them. SRPL-RP supports diverse types of network topologies and is comprehensively analyzed with multiple studies such as Standard RPL with Attacks, SBIDS and RPL+ Shield. The analysis results showed that the SRPL-RP achieves great improvements with Packet Delivery Ratio (PDR) of 98.48%, control message value of 991 packets/second, and average energy consumption of 1231.75 joules. It provides a better accuracy rate with 98.17% under the attacks.