Preprint Article Version 1 This version is not peer-reviewed

Random network models to predict the long term impact of HPV vaccination on genital warts

Version 1 : Received: 27 July 2017 / Approved: 28 July 2017 / Online: 28 July 2017 (12:32:26 CEST)

A peer-reviewed article of this Preprint also exists.

Díez-Domingo, J.; Sánchez-Alonso, V.; Villanueva, R.-J.; Acedo, L.; Moraño, J.-A.; Villanueva-Oller, J. Random Network Models to Predict the Long-Term Impact of HPV Vaccination on Genital Warts. Viruses 2017, 9, 300. Díez-Domingo, J.; Sánchez-Alonso, V.; Villanueva, R.-J.; Acedo, L.; Moraño, J.-A.; Villanueva-Oller, J. Random Network Models to Predict the Long-Term Impact of HPV Vaccination on Genital Warts. Viruses 2017, 9, 300.

Journal reference: Viruses 2017, 9, 300
DOI: 10.3390/v9100300

Abstract

HPV vaccine induces a herd immunity effect in genital warts when a large number of the population is vaccinated. That aspect should be taken into account when devising new vaccine strategies, like vaccination at older ages or male vaccination. Therefore it is important to develop mathematical models with good predictive capacities. We devised a sexual contact network that was calibrated to simulate the Spanish epidemiology of different HPV genotypes. Through this model we simulated the scenario that occurred in Australia in 2007, where 12-13 year-old girls where vaccinated with a three-dose schedule of a vaccine containing genotypes 6 and 11, that protect against genital warts, and also a catch-up program in women up to 26 years of age. Vaccine coverage were 73 % in girls with three doses and with coverage rates decreasing with age until 52 % for 20-26 year-olds. A fast 59 % reduction in the genital warts diagnoses occurred in the model in the first years after the start of the program, similar to what was described in the literature.

Subject Areas

Human papillomavirus; Network model; Vaccination strategies

Readers' Comments and Ratings (0)

Leave a public comment
Send a private comment to the author(s)
Rate this article
Views 0
Downloads 0
Comments 0
Metrics 0
Leave a public comment

×
Alerts
Notify me about updates to this article or when a peer-reviewed version is published.