Working Paper Article Version 1 This version is not peer-reviewed

Understanding Unreported Cases in the 2019-nCov Epidemic Outbreak in Wuhan, China, and the Importance of Major Public Health Interventions

Version 1 : Received: 5 February 2020 / Approved: 6 February 2020 / Online: 6 February 2020 (08:45:07 CET)

A peer-reviewed article of this Preprint also exists.

Liu, Z.; Magal, P.; Seydi, O.; Webb, G. Understanding Unreported Cases in the COVID-19 Epidemic Outbreak in Wuhan, China, and the Importance of Major Public Health Interventions. Biology 2020, 9, 50. Liu, Z.; Magal, P.; Seydi, O.; Webb, G. Understanding Unreported Cases in the COVID-19 Epidemic Outbreak in Wuhan, China, and the Importance of Major Public Health Interventions. Biology 2020, 9, 50.

Journal reference: Biology 2020, 9, 50
DOI: 10.3390/biology9030050

Abstract

We develop a mathematical model to provide epidemic predictions for the 2019-nCov epidemic in Wuhan, China. We use reported case data up to January 31, 2020 from the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention and the Wuhan Municipal Health Commission to parameterize the model. From the parameterized model we identify the number of unreported cases. We then use the model to project the epidemic forward with varying level of public health interventions. The model predictions emphasize the importance of major public health interventions in controlling 2019-nCov epidemics.

Subject Areas

corona virus; reported and unreported cases; isolation, quarantine; public closings; epidemic mathematical model

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