Outbreaks of the desert locust Schistocerca gregaria affect some of the poorest parts of Africa, causing devastating catastrophes. Key to understanding and dealing with this problematic adaptation to environmental changes is comparing locusts that are gregarious (associated with outbreak states) and solitarious (associated with non-outbreak states) either in nature or after experimental treatments in laboratories. Categorising locusts and detecting changes in their phase status is key to such comparisons. Such comparisons are hitherto based on applying mathematical models that use behavioural parameters and that each laboratory has to build a new for each experiment. All such models used thus far for research on locusts are different from each other. That implies differences in the tools used for the different experiments and by the different laboratories and, thus, potential noise in the scientific results and interpretations too. Standardizing the way how we categorise locusts between laboratories and experiments is needed if we want to reduce noise and errors. It is even a must if we are to make the results and interpretations transferable and comparable between experiments and laboratories that work in such an important research area. Here, we use samples from independent S. gregaria population in order to further test the two models that were suggested earlier as standardizing tools for S. gregaria categorization. The outcomes of both models were largely replicated and reproducible. We report on how successful the two models were at categorizing solitarious, intermediate (transient) and gregarious nymph and adult samples. We highlight shortcomings and make more specific recommendations on the use of these models based on the differences they show as to their precision when categorizing the solitarious and gregarious S. gregaria nymph and adult samples.

The three-dimensional Ising model on the m$\times$n$\times$l cubic lattice with the screw boundary condition along the ${\bf X}$ direction and the periodic boundary conditions along both ${\bf Y}$ and ${\bf Z}$ directions is exactly solved by using the $2^{mn}$-dimensional representation of the rotation group in $2mn$-dimensions, similar to the Kaufman's spinor approach in two dimensions. The exact partition function is obtained from two sets of $2^{mn-1}$ eigenvalues of the $2^{mn}$-dimensional transfer matrix {\bf V} corresponding to the even and odd eigenvectors, respectively. Such the eigenvalues are determined by the angles of the 2mn-dimensional rotation associated with {\bf V}.

Several empirical studies indicate that the lack of financing is one of the main barriers that affects the economic growth of small and medium enterprises (SMEs). The main objective of this investigation was to determine to what extent the economic sector; enterprise size; the characteristics inherent to the enterprise; legal status; the variables linked to the performance of the enterprise; and the attributes of the owner influence the access to bank financing of SMEs in Mexico. Using a discrete response probit regression model, the impact of enterprises characteristics on the probability of obtaining a bank loan was determined. The data collected is from the Enterprise Surveys of Mexico, carried out by the World Bank. The sample of 1,480 enterprises is representative by enterprise size, by economic sector, and by region. The research has a quantitative approach with a correlational scope and a non-experimental and transectional design. One of the main results highlights that the determinants with the greatest influence on access to bank financing are: age, the small size, foreign participation, and the manufacturing sector. These results are consistent with other empirical studies, as well as with the pecking order theory and the financial life cycle theory.

Background. We created agent-based model for short- and longterm forecasting of COVID-19 and for evaluation how the actions of the regulator affected the human and material resources of the healthcare system. Methods. The model was implemented in the AnyLogic software. It includes two state charts – social network and disease transmission. The COVID-19 Essential Supplies Forecasting Tool (COVID-ESFT, version 2.0) was used to determine healthcare resources needed. Results. Satisfactory results were obtained with long-term (up to 50 days) forecasting in the case of a monotonous change in total cases curve. However, if periods of relative stability are accompanied by sudden outbreaks, relatively satisfactory results were obtained with short-term forecasting, up to 10 days. Simulation of various scenarios showed that the most important place for the spread of infection are families. Wherein the maximum number of cases of COVID-19 is observed in the age group of 26-59 years. Due to a set of measures taken by government agencies, the number of cases in Karaganda city was 3.2 times less than was predicted in “no intervention” scenario. Economic effect is estimated at 40 %. Conclusion. Performed model is an attempt to consider as much as possible the peculiarities of the socio-demographic situation in the country. In the future, we will be prepared to some extent for challenges like those we have experienced in the past three years.

An aneurysm is a vascular malformation, it can be classified according to its location (cerebral, aortic); and according its shape (saccular, fusiform, and mycotic). The study of blood flow interaction with the aneurysms has gained attention from physicists an engineers in recent years. Shear stresses, oscillatory shear index (OSI), gradient oscillatory number (GON), and residence time had been used as potential variables to describe the hemodynamics as well as the origin and evolution of aneurysm. However, the causes of aneurysms and the hemodynamics conditions that promote the growth of these structures are still under debate. The present work presents numerical simulation on three aneurysms: 2 aortic and 1 cerebral. The results shows that the blood rheology is not relevant for aortic aneurysms, however, for cerebral aneurysm could play a relevant role in the hemodynamics. The turbulence models evaluated show equivalent results in both cases. Lastly, a simulation considering the fluid-structure interaction (FSI) shows that this phenomenon is the dominant factor for aneurysms simulation.

Background: There are ongoing workforce challenges with the delivery of long-term care (LTC), such as staffing decisions based on arbitrary standards. The Synergy tool, a resident-centered approach to staffing, pro-vides objective, real-time acuity and dependency scores (Synergy scores) for residents. The purpose of this study was to implement and evaluate the impact of the Synergy tool on LTC delivery. Methods: A longitudinal mixed methods study took place within two publicly-funded LTC homes in British Columbia, Canada. Quantitative data included weekly Synergy scores for residents (24 weeks), monthly aggregated resident falls data (18 months) and a six-month economic evaluation. Qualitative data were gathered from family caregivers and thematically analyzed. Results: Quantitative findings from Synergy scores revealed considerable variability for resident acuity/dependency needs within and across units; and falls decreased during implementation. The six-month economic evaluation demonstrated some cost savings by comparing Synergy tool training and implementation costs with savings from resident fall rates reductions. Qualitative analyses yielded three positive impacts themes (improved care delivery, better communication, and improved resident-family-staff relationships), and two negative structural themes (language barrier and staff shortages). Conclusions: The Synergy tool provides useful data for enhancing a ‘fit’ between resident needs and available staff.

The naphtha cracking process results in the production of ethylene, propylene, mixed C4, and pygas, which are all olefins. Distillation columns and cracking furnaces are the primary units of operation. The price of raw materials accounts for 80% of production costs. There is also the pos-sibility of using LPG, a less expensive raw material, in place of some of the naphtha. A change in the raw material will affect the operability of the distillation columns and influence the yield on the cracking side. To determine the best naphtha substitution for LPG without creating a hydraulic problem (Jet Flooding) in distillation columns, analysis utilizing simulation tools must be done. To simulate the substitution of naphtha for other feedstocks, a reliability model is being built by comparing simulation results with data from the actual plant. LPG flow is a free variable that is being used to substitute naphtha. The effects of economically advantageous naphtha substitution for LPG can be assessed with the use of simulation tools without impairing plant operability. Optimum naphtha substitution rate is 21.14% from base case which resulting jet flooding occurred at Propylene Fractionator No 2. By implementing this substitution case, benefit that can be driven $22,772.02/ hour.

In order to sustain the marine environment relationship between the environmental factors and marine biota must be investigated. This study aims to study such a correlation in the adjacent waters of Nan Wan Bay, Kenting, Taiwan, and to explore the covariance of environmental factors on marine life (whether they enhance or diminish it). To achieve these objectives, factor analysis was used to identify potential latent variables that could affect the water quality of the adjacent waters, including phytoplankton (quantity), zooplankton (quantity), and fish (quantity and species). These potential variables were named based on the results of past studies and related literature. Finally, a structural equation model (SEM) was constructed to establish a marine ecological model among the potential variables. The factor analysis results revealed that nutrients, upwelling, and primary productivity are the primary factors affecting the environmental changes in the adjacent waters of Nan Wan Bay. The comprehensive SEM showed that nutrients and primary productivity significantly impact plankton. Path analysis indicated that primary productivity has the highest direct effect on the phytoplankton cluster. However, the upwelling has a low significance in its effect on phytoplankton, zooplankton, and fish clusters. Compared to the results of past related studies, the SEM proposed in this study can reflect a considerable degree of change in the waters.

The representation of aerosols in climate-chemistry models is important for air quality and climate change research, but it can require significant computational resources. To overcome this, simpler modules such as modal aerosol modules with three lognormal modes (MAM3) can be used. In this study, the coupling of the Carbon Bond Mechanism, version Z (CBMZ), and MAM3 chemistry modules in WRF-CAM5 was improved by adding biomass-burning emissions to both gas- and particle-phase chemistry and incorporating a conversion mechanism between volatile organic compounds (VOCs) and secondary organic carbons (SOCs). The study conducted six simulations over the western U.S. and northeastern Pacific region and compared the model’s performance with observational benchmarks such as reanalysis, ground-based, and satellite data. The results showed that the model with enhanced chemistry capabilities had a 31% and 58% reduction in root-mean-square errors (RMSE) for black carbon (BC) and organic carbon (OC) surface concentrations, respectively. The earlier release of the WRF-CAM5 version had two deficiencies that were addressed in this study. This research highlights the importance of accurate aerosol representation in climate-chemistry models for improving accuracy and reducing errors in simulations.

Recent advancements in Natural Language Processing (NLP), particularly in Large Language Models (LLMs), associated with deep learning-based computer vision techniques, have shown substantial potential for automating a variety of tasks. One notable model is Visual ChatGPT, which combines ChatGPT’s LLM capabilities with visual computation to enable effective image analysis. The model’s ability to process images based on textual inputs can revolutionize diverse fields. However, its application in the remote sensing domain remains unexplored. This is the first paper to examine the potential of Visual ChatGPT, a cutting-edge LLM founded on the GPT architecture, to tackle the aspects of image processing related to the remote sensing domain. Among its current capabilities, Visual ChatGPT can generate textual descriptions of images, perform canny edge and straight line detection, and conduct image segmentation. These offer valuable insights into image content and facilitate the interpretation and extraction of information. By exploring the applicability of these techniques within publicly available datasets of satellite images, we demonstrate the current model’s limitations in dealing with remote sensing images, highlighting its challenges and future prospects. Although still in early development, we believe that the combination of LLMs and visual models holds a significant potential to transform remote sensing image processing, creating accessible and practical application opportunities in the field.

Glioblastoma (GBM) is a major type of primary brain tumors without ideal prognosis and it’s necessary to find novel compound possessing therapeutic effect. Chrysomycin A (Chr-A) has been reported to inhibit the proliferation, migration and invasion of U251 and U87-MG cells, but the mechanism of Chr-A against glioblastoma in vivo and whether Chr-A modulates apoptosis of neuroglioma cells is unclear.The present study was to elucidate the potential of Chr-A against glioblastoma in vivo and how Chr-A modulates apoptosis of neuroglioma cells. Briefly, The an-ti-glioblastoma activity was assessed in human glioma U87 xenografts nude mice. Chr-A-related targets were identified by RNA-seq. Apoptotic ratio and caspase 3/7 activity of U251 and U87-MG cells were assayed by flow cytometry. Apoptosis-related proteins and possible molecular mecha-nism were validated via Western blotting. The results showed that Chr-A treatment significantly inhibits glioblastoma progression in xenografts nude mice, and enrichment analysis suggested that apoptosis, PI3K-Akt and Wnt signaling pathway were involved in the possible mechanism. Chr-A increased apoptotic ratio and the activity of caspase 3/7 in U251 and U87-MG cells. Western blot revealed that Chr-A broke the balance between Bax and Bcl-2 activating caspase cascade re-action and downregulated the expression of p-Akt and p-GSK-3β, suggesting that Chr-A may contribute to glioblastoma regression modulating Akt/GSK-3β signaling pathway to promote apoptosis of neuroglioma cells in vivo and in vitro. Therefore, Chr-A may hold therapeutic promise for glioblastoma.

Cable-Driven Parallel Robots (CDPRs) are a special kind of parallel manipulator which use cables to control the position and orientation of the mobile platform or end-effector. The usage of cables instead of rigid links offer some advantages over their conventional rigid counterparts. As cables can only pull, but not push, the number of cables (n) required to command the end-effector is always n+1. This configuration is known as fully-constrained and it is the most extended configuration for CDPRs. Although CDPRs have many advantages, such as their ability to cover large working areas, one of their main problems is that their working area (workspace) is limited in comparison to its frame area (planar case), or frame volume (spatial case), due to the minimum and maximum allowed tensions. Depending of these tensions values the workspace can be notoriously decreased. In order to tackle this problem, lots of works focus on solving kinematics or dynamics problems for cable sagging, i.e., they take into account sagging when modelling the robot kinematic and include these poses inside the usable robot workspace. Taking into account phenomenons like this increases the mathematical complexity of the problem, and much more complex techniques are required. On the other hand, the lack of workspace problem can be tackled by adding active or passive elements to the robot design. In this sense, this paper proposes two mechanical modifications: to add passive carriages to the robot frame and to use a single cable loop to command the end-effector position and orientation. This work presents the kinematic, static and dynamic models of the novel design and shows the gain of workspace for a planar case while taking into account different parameters of the robot.

Design has often been interpreted as a practice of creating novel objects. However, the relationships between objects analysed upstream the process of creation have been under-studied. Here it is presented a model for enhancing the design practice by fostering a deep work on the relationships of mundane objects. The Three-dimensional Narratives (TdN) model comprises a stepwise five phases work package that facilitates a varied range of analyses to improve the creativity and innovation of any project led by any type of participants. One particular feature of the TdN model is the appropriation of concepts coming from non-design fields such physics and biology to both developing the work of the model and to improve the comprehension and outcomes of the enrolled participants. During three Case Studies with children, youngsters, and older participants the TdN model was validated, and its usability was successfully assessed. The TdN model shows that there is a need for a deeper design practice and that it is relevant to improve the lexicon of designers in order to facilitate a broader and design practice, irrespectively of the aim of the proposed project and nuances of the audience.

The deployment of Electro-Mechanical Actuators plays an important role towards the adoption of the More Electric Aircraft (MEA) philosophy. On the other hand, a seamless substitution of EMAs in place of more traditional hydraulic solutions is still set back due to the shortage of real-life and reliability data regarding their failure modes. One way to work around this problem is providing a capillary EMA Prognostics and Health Management (PHM) system, capable of recognizing failures before they actually undermine the ability of the safety-critical system to perform its functions. The authors have developed a model-based prognostic framework for PMSM based EMAs leveraging a metaheuristic algorithm: Evolutionary (Differential Evolution (DE)) and swarm intelligence (particle swarm (PSO), grey wolf (GWO)) methods are considered. Several failures (dry friction, backlash, short circuit, eccentricity and proportional gain) are simulated thanks to a Reference Model, acting as a Numerical Test Bench, then detected and identified thanks to the envisioned prognostic method, which leverages a low fidelity Monitoring Model. The employed algorithms showed good results and prove that this strategy could be executed in pre-flight checks or during the flight at specific time intervals, with positive impacts on system safety and availability.

The purpose of this paper is to develop a theoretical predictive model for LNG shipping routes selection process. Strategic decisions about shipping costs could be improved if a deeper knowledge about products economic value is provided. Developments made on the extraction and industrial processes related to this fossil fuel are driving the natural gas sector towards a unique globalised market. Moreover, data analytics applications as well as machine learning are topics presented as perfect catalysers for achieving an unprecedented natural gas globalised market. Additionally, this paper aims at showing the state of the art of new techniques used in transportation engineering that might have synergies with other industries (eg. commodities cost reduction, energy supply…). Finally, this paper aims to provide foundation for further research and development using more sophisticated data and algorithms that will help to close the gap between theoretical and practical scope of this techniques.

Agent-based models (ABMs) are computational models for simulating the actions and interactions of autonomous agents in time and space. These models allow users to simulate the complex interactions between individual agents and the landscapes they inhabit and are increasingly used in epidemiology to understand complex phenomena and make predictions. However, as the complexity of the simulated systems increases, notably when disease control interventions are considered, model flexibility and processing speed can become limiting. Here we introduce SamPy, an open-source Python library for stochastic agent-based modeling of epidemics. SamPy is a modular toolkit for model development, providing adaptable modules that capture host movement, disease dynamics, and disease control interventions. Memory optimization and design provide high computational efficiency allowing modelling of large, spatially-explicit populations of agents over extensive geographical areas. In this article, we demonstrate the high flexibility and processing speed of this new library. The version of SamPy considered in this paper is available at https://github.com/sampy-project/sampy-paper .

Genome-scale metabolic models (GEMs) play an important role in the phenotype prediction of microorganisms, and their accuracy can be further improved by integrating other types of biological data such as enzyme concentrations and kinetic coefficients. Enzyme-constrained models (ecModels) have been constructed for several species and were successfully applied to increase the production of commodity chemicals. However, there was still no genome-scale ecModel for the important model organism Bacillus subtilis prior to this study. Here, we integrated enzyme kinetic and proteomic data to construct the first genome-scale ecModel of B. subtilis (ecBSU1) using the ECMpy workflow. We first used ecBSU1 to simulate overflow metabolism and explore the trade-off between biomass yield and enzyme usage efficiency. Then, we simulated the growth rate on eight previously published substrates and found that the simulation results of ecBSU1 were in good agreement with the literature. Finally, we identified target genes that enhance the yield of commodity chemicals using ecBSU1, most of which were consistent with the experimental data, and some of which may be potential novel targets for metabolic engineering. This work demonstrates that the integration of enzymatic constraints is an effective method to improve the performance of GEMs. The ecModel can predict overflow metabolism more precisely and can be used for the identification of target genes to guide the rational design of microbial cell factories.

Social insects, such as honey bees exhibit complex behavioral patterns and their inconspicuous coordination enables decision-making on the colony level. It is thus proposed, that a high-level description of their collective behavior might share commonalities with neural processes in the brains. At the same time, recent research concerning overarching features of neural activity implies that brains are poised at the edge of the critical phase transition and that such a state is enabling maximal computational power and adaptability. In our research, we applied some tools developed in the computational neuroscience field to the dataset of bee trajectories recorded within the hive, during the course of many days. Our results imply that certain characteristics of the system are remarkably similar to the Ising model when it operates at critical temperature and also shares some of the features with the human brain at the resting state

We investigate some of the fundamental features of the interaction of mixed kaleidoscope states, namely, particular statistical mixtures of coherent states, with two-level atoms in the Jaynes-Cummings model framework. We begin our analysis by calculating the von Neumann entropy of the field which is determined with help of the virtual atom method. Oscillations appear in this entropy that indicate a state of purity greater than the initial state, {it i.e.}, a purification of the initial state is achieved. In this oscillatory region, we obtain the field Wigner function that resembles Schrodinger's cats.

Abstract—In this paper, decidability of the structures of real, rational, integer and natural numbers will be studied in different languages. Decidability or undecidability of mathematical structures is one of the fundamental and sometimes very difficult problems of mathematical logic, where several examples of problems in this field are still open and unresolved even after decades. One of the goals of Mathematical Logic is the axiomatization of mathematical theoriesTarski has proved the decidability of the theory of real and complex numbers in the language of addition and multiplication, and it is proved that theories of natural, integer, and rational numbers, in the language of addition and multiplication, are undecidable (Theorems of Gödel and Robinson). We will review The following problemes: The Main Problem 1: ⟨Q; ⊑⟩ is decidable? Problem 2: an explicit axiomatization for ⟨Z; \times⟩? and we will study boolean algebras. Boolean algebras are famous mathematical structures.Tarski showed the decidability of the elementary theory of Boolean algebras.In this paper, we study the different kinds of Boolean algebras and their properties. And we present for the first-order theory of atomic Boolean algebras a quantifier elimination algorithm. The subset relation is a partial order and indeed a lattice order,And I will prove that the theory of atomic Boolean lattice orders is decidable, and furthermore admits elimination of quantifiers. So the theory of the subset relation is decidable. And we will study decidability of atomlss boolean algebra.

BackgroundGood management behavior in patients with diabetes mellitus can reduce disease complications and improve quality of life. This philosophical problem is very important for nurses who are able to provide management care for diabetic patients. The purpose of this literature review is to describe the concept, model or theory that can be used in improving the management of diabetes mellitus patients.MethodsThe method used is by searching several studies published through the Scopus database, PubMed, CINAHL, SpingerLink, and web of science (WOS). The search strategy uses a combination of the terms MeSH Terms. The research questions were designed using the principles of the PICOS framework. Selected studies were published from 2017-2022.ResultsA total of 15 studies were included, with 12 using quantitative methodology and 3 were qualitative. The studies were conducted across various countries. The majority of articles used the concept of self-management intervention based on digital-based development and e-health (n=6), Dorothea Orem's self-care deficit nursing theory n=2) and the transtheoretical model (n=2). These concepts, models and theories are able to improve good self-management through lifestyle changes, psychosocial, cultural acculturation and increase in spiritual values (n=6).ConclusionTransitional change focuses on changing the modifiable factors found in the concepts, models and theories of the articles obtained. Future research can be developed to assess the existence of elaborations and modifications based on the philosophy that people with diabetes are responsible for their own health.

Genome-scale metabolic model (GEM) is a powerful tool for interpreting and predicting cellular phenotypes under various environmental and genetic perturbations. However, GEM only consid-ers stoichiometric constraints, and the simulated growth and product yield values will show a monotonic linear increase with increasing substrate uptake rate, which deviates from the experi-mentally measured values. Recently, the integration of enzymatic constraints into stoichiometry-based GEMs was proven to be effective in making novel discoveries and predicting new engineer-ing targets. Here we present the first genome-scale enzyme-constrained model (eciCW773) for Corynebacterium glutamicum reconstructed by integrating enzyme kinetic data from various sources using ECMpy workflow based on the high-quality GEM of C. glutamicum (obtained by modifying the iCW773 model). The enzyme-constrained model improved the prediction of pheno-types and simulated overflow metabolism, while also recapitulating the trade-off between biomass yield and enzyme usage efficiency. Finally, we used eciCW773 to identify several gene modifica-tion targets for L-lysine production, most of which agree with previously reported genes. This study shows that incorporating enzyme kinetic information into the GEM enhances the cellular phenotypes prediction of C. glutamicum, which can help identify key enzymes and thus provide reliable guidance for metabolic engineering.

It is no news that the COVID–19 pandemic has affected many persons in different ways. As the number of reported cases rises across the globe, efforts are geared towards production and administration of effective vaccines for the disease. However, many developing countries are faced with the dilemma of how to slow the spread and flatten the curves of the disease as the available vaccines are not enough. Interestingly, the dynamics of the disease can be analysed to get useful insights to enhance the making of suitable preventive policies that will slow the spread, ultimately flatten the curves of the disease and also help in managing any future occurrence. In this work, the aim is to analyse the dynamics, and estimate the basic reproduction number of the second wave of the pandemic in Nigeria using a Susceptible-Infected-Recovered-Deceased (SIRD) compartmental–based model. The dynamics of the disease is described by a system of nonlinear ordinary differential equations. The model takes into consideration the current control policies in place - social distancing, mask usage, personal hygiene and quarantine. Available data provided by Nigeria Centre for Disease Control (NCDC), World Health Organization (WHO) and Wolfram Data Repository were used for the computations. The Quasi–Newton algorithm was implemented in fitting the proposed model to the available data and a sensitivity analysis was presented. Major parameters - effective contact rate, average recovery time, average mortality rate, and overall effectiveness of the control policies - influencing the dynamics of the disease, and the basic reproduction numbers were estimated. The turning points of the disease during the second wave were also obtained. The proposed model gave estimated values for the parameters influencing the spread of the disease. Also, the measure of the overall effectiveness of the current control policies gave insight into how effective the measures are.

Stabilization of planar premixed flame front on a lattice (porous) burner is considered. It is rigorously mathematically proved that there exist two different stabilization regimes: one with flame front located nearby the surface of the burner, and another with flame front located inside the lattice. These two regimes result in qualitatively different gas temperature profiles along the flow, that is monotonic and non-monotonic, respectively. Boundary between the two regimes is described in terms of dependence of the lattice solid material temperature on flow Peclet number. Likewise temperature profiles, such dependencies may be both monotonic and non-monotonic. Transition between the two types of dependencies is controlled by Arrhenius number. Conclusions of the study are supported by numerical analysis. They also compare favourably with available experimental data. Novelty of the present approach is fundamentally rigorous analytical analysis of the problem.

As a representative of Exponential Organizations, MI went from obscurity to the Fortune 500 in just ten years. Mi's success is inextricably linked to its outstanding business model. This paper summarizes the elements of MI's business model from four perspectives: value proposition, value creation, value delivery, and value capture, as well as its measures for developing into an exponential organization. Expecting to provide theoretical references for the transformation and upgrading of manufacturing organizations.

The Circular Economy of plastics is a promising concept that has the potential to reduce pollution and close the loop on plastic waste. However, further research is needed to develop more efficient and environmentally friendly methods of recycling plastic. This review article discusses the Circular Economy of plastics, its potential benefits and drawbacks, and the challenges that need to be addressed to make it a reality. Some case studies are also examined to explore how the Circular Economy of plastics has been implemented across the globe.

Eliashberg theory provides a theoretical framework for understanding the phenomenon of superconductivity when pairing between two electrons is mediated by phonons, and retardation effects are fully accounted for. However, when a direct Coulomb interaction between two electrons is also present, this interaction is only partially accounted for. In this work we use a well-defined Hamiltonian, the Hubbard-Holstein model, to examine this competition more rigorously, using exact diagonalization on a two-site system. We find that the direct electron-electron repulsion between two electrons has a significantly more harmful effect on pairing than suggested through the standard treatment of this interaction.

Molecular motors play a vital role in the transport of material within the cell. A family of motors of growing interest are burnt bridge ratchets (BBRs). BBRs rectify spatial fluctuations into directed motion by creating and destroying motor-substrate bonds. It has been shown that the motility of a BBR can be optimized as a function of the system parameters. However, the amount of energy input required to generate such motion and the resulting efficiency has been less well characterized. Here, using a deterministic model, we calculate the efficiency of a particular type of BBR, namely a polyvalent hub interacting with a surface of substrate. We find that there is an optimal burn rate and substrate concentration that leads to optimal efficiency. Additionally, the substrate turnover rate has important implications on motor efficiency. We also consider the effects of force-dependent unbinding on the efficiency and find that under certain conditions the motor works more efficiently when bond breaking is included. Our results provide guidance for how to optimize the efficiency of BBRs.

The influence of humic aggregates in water solution upon the chemical stability under basic conditions of different substrates has been reviewed. The kinetic behavior of each substrate has been modelized in terms of micellar pseudophase model.

Multimodal therapy including surgery, radiation treatment and temozolomide (TMZ) is performed on glioblastoma (GBM). However, the prognosis is still poor and there is an urgent need to develop effective treatments to improve survival. Molecular biological analysis was conducted to exam-ine the signal activation patterns at GBM specimens and remains an open problem. Advanced macrolides, such as azithromycin, reduce the phosphorylation of p70 ribosomal protein S6 kinase (p70S6K), a downstream mammalian target of rapamycin (mTOR) effector, and suppress the proliferation of T-cells. We focused on its unique profile and screened for the antitumor activity of approved macrolide antibiotics. Clindamycin (CLD) reduced the viability of GBM cells in vitro. We assessed the effects of the candidate macrolide on the mTOR pathway through Western blotting. CLD attenuated p70S6K phosphorylation in a dose dependent manner. These effects of on GBM cells were enhanced by co-treatment with TMZ. Furthermore, CLD inhibited the expression of O6-methylguanine-DNA methyltransferase (MGMT) protein in cultured cells. In the mouse xenograft model, CLD and TMZ co-administration significantly suppressed the tumor growth and markedly decreased the number of Ki-67 (clone MIB-1) positive cells within the tumor. These results suggest that CLD suppresses GBM cell growth by the inhibiting mTOR signaling. Moreover, CLD and TMZ showed promising synergistic antitumor activity.

While the long-term effects of COVID-19 are yet to be determined, its immediate impact on crowdfunding is nonetheless significant. This study takes a computational approach to more deeply comprehend this change. Using a unique data set of all the campaigns published over the past two years on GoFundMe, we explore the factors that have led to the successful funding of a crowdfunding project. In particular, we study a corpus of crowdfunded projects, analyzing cover images and other variables commonly present on crowdfunding sites. Furthermore, we construct a classifier and a regression model to assess the significance of features based on XGBoost. In addition, we employ counterfactual analysis to investigate the causality between features and the success of crowdfunding. More importantly, sentiment analysis and the paired sample t-test are performed to examine the differences in crowdfunding campaigns before and after the COVID-19 outbreak that started in March 2020. First, we note that there is significant racial disparity in crowdfunding success. Second, we find that sad emotion expressed through the campaign's description became significant after the COVID-19 outbreak. Considering all these factors, our findings shed light on the impact of COVID-19 on crowdfunding campaigns.

Surface activity of humic acid (HA) and its six sub-fractions isolated from forest soil were characterized by surface tension measurements, dynamic light scattering, and laser doppler electrophoresis. The surface tension of HA sub-fractions decreased from 72.4 mN·m-1 to 36.8 mN·m-1 with the increasing concentration from 0 to 20000 mg·L-1. The critical micelle concentration (CMC) of HA and its sub-fractions ranged from 216 to 1024 mg·L-1 with the multiple linear regression equation of CMC = 18896–6.9×C–296×alkyl-C–331×aromatic-C–17019×H/C+4054×HB/HI (p < 0.05). The Z-average particle size ranges from 108.2 nm to 186.9 nm. The maximum particle size was 5000 nm after filtered with a membrane of 0.45 μm, indicating HA and its sub-fractions progressed self-assembly during 2000 mg·L-1, pH = 6.86. The number-base particle size distribution of HA sub-fractions was identified as four peaks by Gaussian model, and the aggregate sizes were mainly in six clusters including 2 ± 1 nm, 5 ± 2 nm, 10 ± 3 nm, 21 ± 8 nm, 40 ± 10 nm, and > 50 nm indicating multiple aggregations of different particle sizes in the HA fractions solution.

Violence is a complex and multifaceted problem requiring a holistic and individualized response. The Good Lives Model (GLM) suggests violence occurs when an individual experiences internal and external obstacles in the pursuit of universal human needs (termed primary goods). With a twin focus, GLM-consistent interventions aim to promote attainment of primary goods, whilst simultaneously reducing risk of reoffending. This is achieved by improving an individuals’ internal (i.e., skills and abilities) and external capacities (i.e., opportunities, environments, and resources). This paper proposes that collaborations between different agencies (e.g., psychological services, criminal justice systems, social services, education, community organizations and healthcare) can support the attainment of primary goods through the provision of specialized skills and resources. Recommendations for ensuring interagency collaborations are effective are outlined, including embedding a project lead, regular interagency meetings and training, establishing information sharing procedures, and defining the role each agency plays in client care.

In this review article the study of the development of relativistic cosmology and introduction of inflation in it is carried out. We study the properties of standard cosmological model developed in the framework of relativistic cosmology and the geometric structure of spacetime connected coherently with it. We examine the geometric properties of space and spacetime ingrained into the standard model of cosmology. The big bang model of the beginning of the universe is based on the standard model which succumbed to failure in explaining the flatness and the large-scale homogeneity of the universe as demonstrated by observational evidence. These cosmological problems were resolved by introducing a brief acceleratedly expanding phase in the very early universe known as inflation. Cosmic inflation by setting the initial conditions of the standard big bang model resolves these problems of the theory. We discuss how the inflationary paradigm solves these problems by proposing the fast expansion period in the early universe.

There is a growing need for novel in vitro corneal models to replace animal-based ex vivo test in drug permeability studies. In this study we demonstrate a corneal mimetic that models the stromal and epithelial compartments of human cornea. Human corneal epithelial cells (HCE-T) were grown on top of a self-supporting porcine collagen-based hydrogel. Cross sections of the multilayers were characterized by histological staining and immunocytochemistry of zonula occludens-1 protein (ZO-1) and occludin. Furthermore, water content and elastic properties of the synthetized collagen type I-based hydrogels were measured. The apparent permeability coefficient (Papp) values of a representative set of ophthalmic drugs were measured and correlated to rabbit cornea Papp values found in the literature. Multilayered structure of HCE-T cells and expression of ZO-1 and occludin in full thickness of multilayer were observed. The hydrogel-based corneal model exhibited excellent correlation to rabbit corneal permeability (r=0.96), whereas insert-grown HCE-T multilayer was more permeable and the correlation to the rabbit corneal permeability was lower (r=0.89). The hydrogel-based human corneal model predicts the rabbit corneal permeability more reliably in comparison to HCE-T cells grown in inserts. This in vitro human corneal model can be successfully employed for drug permeability tests whilst avoiding ethical issues and reducing costs.

There is a case about a system comprising two queues of M/M(a)/1/K with a due date with FCFS service policy in each queue. Using the methods of simulation and mathematical analysis, the solution diagrams were illustrated for the fixed due date Ɵ=1 second at the phase of due date up to the commencement of the service, limited capacity K₁=5 and K₂=4, for both scenarios of different service management rate resulted. For the analytical solution, first, a SAN model from the system was created in the Mobius tool. For simulation, a java discrete systems simulation code was used. Adjustment of the initial values, selection of the scenarios for service rate, the number of the consumers in the simulation, etc. were all carried out in the simulation code.

Hepatitis delta virus (HDV) infection causes the most severe form of viral hepatitis but little is known about the molecular mechanisms involved. The recently developed HDV mouse model based on the delivery of HDV replication-competent genomes using adeno-associated vectors (AAV) develop a liver pathology very similar to the human disease, and allowed us to perform mechanistic studies. We have generated different AAV-HDV mutants to eliminate the expression HDV antigens (HDAgs), characterized them both in vitro and in vivo. We confirmed that S-HDAg is essential for HDV replication and cannot be replaced by L-HDAg or host cellular proteins, and the L-HDAg is essential for HDV infectious particle production. We have also found that the lack of L-HDAg resulted in the increase of of S-HDAg expression levels and the exacerbation of liver damage which is T cell independent but is associated with an increment in liver inflammation. Interestingly, early expression of L-HDAg significantly ameliorated the liver damage induced by the mutant expressing only the S-HDAg. In summary, the use of AAV-HDV represents a very attractive platform to interrogate in vivo the role of viral components in the HDV life cycle and to better understand the mechanism of HDV-induced liver pathology.

Despite advances in understanding of the molecular pathogenesis of glioma, outcomes remain dismal. Developing successful treatments for glioma requires faithful in vivo disease modeling and rigorous preclinical testing. Murine models, including xenograft, syngeneic, and genetically engineered models, are used to study gliomagenesis, identify methods of tumor progression, and test novel treatment strategies. Since the discovery of highly recurrent isocitrate dehydrogenase (IDH) mutations in lower-grade gliomas, there is increasing emphasis on effective modeling of IDH mutant brain tumors. Improvements in preclinical models that capture the phenotypic and molecular heterogeneity of gliomas are critical for the development of effective new therapies. Herein, we explore the current status, advancements, and challenges with contemporary murine glioma models.

The original purpose of this article was to modify the original SIR equations to allow for a direct source of infection (without which the original equations would have no solutions unless one starts with an already infected population) and also to see to what extent one could obtain multiple outbreaks of an infectious disease. In the course of developing the basic ideas several other factors arose to take prominent roles.Perhaps one of the more salient factors is the point that choosing an arbitrary time to change conditions from say a lock-down for the population to a less stringent social behavior, such as allowing partial or complete opening of businesses and schools, etc. should be based on knowledge of the disease and its evolution. Such decisions are usually made by politicians who have less than full information concerning the consequences of their actions. Several examples are given to illustrate these points.

The exact dynamics of emergence remains one of the most prominent outstanding questions for the field of complexity science. I first discuss various perspectives on emergence in various contexts, then offer a different perspective on understanding emergence in a graph-theoretic representation. From the discussion, an observer’s choice in state space seems to have an effect for that observer to detect emergent behavior. To test these ideas, I analyze the dynamics of all possible spatial state spaces near the critical temperature in an Ising model. As a result, state space topologies that appear more deterministic flip more bits than topologies that appear more random, which is contrary to our intuitions about randomness. In addition, the size of different state spaces constrain a system’s ability to explore various states within the same time frame. These results are important to understanding emergent phenomena in biological systems, which are layered with various state spaces and observational perspectives.

The limitedness of the nonrenewable local energy resources in Israel, even in background of the later gas fields’ findings, continues to force the state to devote various efforts for the ‘green’ energy development. These efforts include installations both in the solar and in the wind energy, with a purpose to improve the diversity of energy sources. While the standard discounted cash flow (DCF) method using the net present value (NPV) criterion is extensively adopted to evaluate investments, the standard DCF method is inappropriate for the rapidly changing investment climate and for the managerial flexibility in investment decisions. In recent years, the real options analysis (ROA) technique is widely applied in many studies for valuation of renewable energy investment projects. Hence, we apply in this study the real options analysis approach for the valuation of wind energy turbines and apply it to the analysis of wind energy economic potential in Israel.

This paper presents an analysis of precipitation extremes over the East African region. The study employs six extreme precipitation indices defined by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI) to evaluate possible climate change. Observed datasets and CMIP6 simulations and projections are employed to assess the changes during the two main rainfall seasons of March to May (MAM) and October to December (OND). The study evaluated the capability of CMIP6 simulations in reproducing the observed extreme events during the period 1995 – 2014. Our results show that the multi-model ensemble (herein referred to as MME) of CMIP6 models can depict the observed spatial distribution of precipitation extremes for both seasons, albeit with some noticeable exceptions in some indices. Overall, MME's assessment yields considerable confidence in CMIP6 to be employed for the projection of extreme events over the study area. Analysis of extreme estimations shows an increase (decrease) in CDD (CWD) during 2081 – 2100 relative to the baseline period in both seasons. Moreover, SDII, R95p, R20mm, and PRCPTOT demonstrate significant OND estimates compared to the MAM season. The spatial variation for extreme incidences shows likely intensification over Uganda and most parts of Kenya, while reduction is observed over the Tanzania region. The increase in projected extremes during two main rainfall seasons poses a significant threat to the sustainability of societal infrastructure and ecosystem wellbeing. The results from these analyses present an opportunity to understand the emergence of extreme events and the capability of model outputs from CMIP6 in estimating the projected changes. More studies are encouraged to examine the underlying physical features modulating the occurrence of extremes incidences projected for relevant policies.

The aim of this work was to evaluate the influence of various food and beverages on the viability of probiotic bacteria during passing through artificial digestion. As a model food, solutions with various concentrations of alcohol, sugar, salt, protein and acid were prepared. Different types of real foods and beverages were used as well. Viability in presence of food matrices was tested on monocultures of Lactobacillus acidophilus CCM4833 and Bifidobacterium breve CCM7825T and on mixed commercial culture with 9 different strains of probiotic microorganisms( Lactobacillus, Bifidobacterium, Streptococcus). The concentration and viability of probiotic bacteria was tested by cultivation assay and flow cytometry. In model foods, the best growth of was determined in the presence of 10% albumin and 10% ethanol. Survival of the probiotics delivered in different food matrices through a simulated gastrointestinal tract was quantitatively different. As the best food environment for probiotics complex food matrices such as pasta with cream sauce, chocolate spread and homemade beef broth were selected, followed by mixed vegetables, potato salad, salted chips, fruits and yoghurt. Among beverages the best option was milk, followed by black tea, coffee and Coca Cola. Probiotic microorganisms are more viable when consumed with meals than with beverages only. In general, the highest viability of probiotic cells has been observed in presence of foods containing high concentration of sugar and fat or their suitable combination. The increase of cell viability observed in such foods during model digestion may further contribute to the positive effect of probiotics on human health.

The formation of rock fractures in nature has a certain relationship with water seepage. In order to analyze the shape of rock fracture, we propose a rock deformation theoretical model in three-dimensional space considering with the condition of seepage water pressure, and establish the mass conservation equation, seepage equation, surrounding rock displacement equation, so as to deduce the rock deformation control equation under seepage pressure action. The numerical analysis of the nonlinear quadratic partial differential equation obtains the fracture deformation distribution in the example, and verifies with the calculated fracture morphology. And we further use this principle to analyze the fracture morphology in nature and prove the rationality of the theory.

In recent years, research has focused on generating mechanisms to assess the levels of subjects' cognitive workload when performing various activities that demand high concentration levels, such as driving a vehicle. These mechanisms have implemented several tools to analyze cognitive workload where the electroencephalographic (EEG) signals are the most used due to its high precision. However, one of the main challenges in the EEG signals implementing is finding the appropriate information to identify cognitive states. Here we show a new feature selection model for pattern recognition using information from EEG signals based on machine learning techniques called GALoRIS. GALoRIS combines Genetic Algorithms and Logistic Regression to create a new fitness function that identifies and selects the critical EEG features that contribute to recognizing high and low cognitive workload and structures a new dataset capable of optimizing the model's predictive process. We found that GALoRIS identifies data related to high and low cognitive workload of subjects while driving a vehicle using information extracted from multiple EEG signals, reducing the original dataset by more than 50%, maximizing the model's predictive capacity-achieving a precision rate greater than 90%.

This work investigates the utility of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s National Water Model (NWM) for water management operations by assessing the total inflow into a select number of reservoirs across the Central and Western U.S. Total inflow is generally an unmeasured quantity, though critically important for anticipating both floods and shortages in supply over a short-term (hourly) to sub-seasonal (monthly) time horizon. The NWM offers such information at over 5,000 reservoirs across the U.S., however, its skill at representing inflow processes is largely unknown. The goal of this work is to understand the drivers for both well performing and poor performing NWM inflows such that managers can get a sense of the capability of NWM to capture natural hydrologic processes and in some cases, the effects of upstream management. We analyzed the inflows for a subset of Bureau of Reclamation (BoR) reservoirs within the NWM over the long-term simulations (retrospectively, seven years) and for short, medium and long-range operational forecast cycles over a one-year period. We utilize ancillary reservoir characteristics (e.g. physical and operational) to explain variation in inflow performance across the selected reservoirs. In general, we find that NWM inflows in snow-driven basins outperform those in rain-driven, and that assimilated basin area, upstream management, and calibrated basin area all influence the NWM’s ability to reproduce daily reservoir inflows. The final outcome of this work proposes a framework for how the NWM reservoir inflows can be useful for reservoir management, linking reservoir purposes with the forecast cycles and retrospective simulations.

Network slicing is a promising technology for 5G networks in which operators can sell customized services to different tenants at various prices and Quality of Services (QoS) demands. Thus, the latest 4th Generation (4G) and upcoming 5th Generation (5G) mobile technologies are expected to offer massive connectivity and management of high volume of data traffic in the presence of immense interferences from mobile networks of IoT devices. Further, it will face challenges of congestion and overload of data traffic due to the humongous number of IoT devices. Nevertheless, these devices are likely to demand high throughput, low latency, and high level of reliability especially for critical real-time applications such as in Vehicular Communication System (VCS). To address these issues in 5G mobile networks, this paper proposes a Slice Allocation Management (SAM) Model based on the critical services of smart systems such as VCS to satisfy QoS demands. The proposed model aims at providing dedicated slices on the basis of service requirements such as expected throughput and latency for VCS. To ensure such performance and provide data traffic priorities of IoT devices in the uplink of Relay Nodes (RNs) cells in the 5G mobile networks, we have sliced the Radio Access Networks (RAN), along with the assignment of the nearest Mobile Edge Computing (MEC) with isolated slices based on the priorities for each IoT nodes to reduce latency level. The proposed model was simulated and validated using the OPNET simulator. The results obtained demonstrate that SAM Model is able to achieve improvement of end to end delays and uplink throughputs of the networks in high-density networks of IoT devices.

The masonry building Heritage is appreciated for its aesthetic and historical value all around the world. The widespread presence of curved elements, such as arch, vault and dome express the relevant constructive abilities in the different historical epochs. These curved elements are characterized by architectural beauty, structural strength (especially against the gravity loads), thermal comfort and fire resistance. On the other hand, curved structures required scaffolding in order to be erected. The design, the construction and the dismantling of the scaffolds is typically time-consuming and expensive. In addition, the on-site working risk is related to time-interferences (e.g. in manpower working, at the same time, over and under scaffold). This technology dates back to the Era of the Roman Empire and it is currently still used, despite its limitations and disadvantages. In the present paper, an innovative technique (recently patented), aiming for the construction of a curved structural member without scaffolds, is proposed and illustrated. It consists in a Hinged Lifting Arch (HLA), using FRP (Fiber Reinforced Polymer) bonded strips. In details, a series of blocks are cut following an arch geometry and then aligned on the ground-floor in order to bond a composite on their top surface. Moreover, the impregnation of the polymeric adhesive is not allowed at the extremities of each block. The fiber sheet is applied continuously along the entire extrados. In this sense, hinges are introduced, in fact, the FRP-connected blocks are able to easily rotate, in the opposite direction, around the contact ends (i.e. hinge). Finally, the middle block is lifted-up and the arch takes the desiderated shape. In the first experimental demonstration, the natural calcareous stone was used, even if the proposed technique is totally material-independent. Moreover, an analytical model is proposed and discussed for designing the proper aspect ratio of the blocks in order to ensure the full mutual contact when the HLA is totally lifted up. The advantages of the proposed technique are related to the absence of scaffolds and improved seismic strength against horizontal loads thanks to the presence of the FRP, which limits the occurrence of hinges at the extrados.

In India the first case of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) reported on 30 January 2020, and thereafter cases were increasing daily after the last week of Feb. 2020. COVID-19 identified as family member of coronaviridae where previously Middle East Respiratory Syndrome MERS and Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome SARS belongs to same family. The COVID-19 attacks on respiratory system signing fever, cough and breath shortness, in severe cases may cause pneumonia, SARS or some time death. The aim of this study work is to develop model which predicts the epidemic peak for COVID-19 in India by using the real-time data from 30 Jan to 10 May 2020. There are uncertainties while identifying the population information due to the incomplete and inaccurate data, we initiate the most popular model for epidemic prediction i.e Susceptible, Exposed, Infectious, & Recovered SEIR initially the compartmental model for the prediction. Based on the solution of the state estimation problem for polynomial system with Poisson noise, we estimate that the epidemic peak may reach the early-middle July 2020, initializing recovered R0 to 0 and Infected I0 to 1. The outcomes of the model will help epidemiologist to isolate the source of the disease geospatially and analyze the death. Also government authorities will be able to target their interventions for rapidly checking the spread of the epidemic.

This pandemic of COVID-19 is tedious to control. The only lockdown is the way to stop the spread of this infection. Conventional health care is facing a real challenge to operate. Primarily the challenge is to provide health care support for COVID-19 patients with limited resources and continue the health care services like earlier.Perhaps, this challenge is the same but magnitude is different from different geographical locations around the globe. In this article, we presented a Bayesian algorithm with the Code to predict cancer death due to COVID-19. This code is possible to run at different time points and different geographical locations around the world. This code will help us to get the best strategy and shift the treatment option for cancer treatment. The model would provide physicians with an objective tool for counseling and decision making at different hotspots and small areas to implement.

Abnormalities in male fertility constitute about 50% of all infertility causes. According to some data, the quality of human semen has deteriorated by 50-60 % over the last 40 years. A high-fat diet and obesity, the development of which is encouraged by the western lifestyle, affects the structure of spermatozoa, but also the development of the offspring and their health in later stages of life. In obese individuals, disorders on the hypothalamic-pituitary-gonadal axis are observed, as well as elevated oestrogen levels with simultaneous decrease of testosterone, LH and FSH hormone levels. Healthy dietary models clearly correlate with better sperm quality and a smaller risk of abnormalities in parameters, such as sperm count, sperm concentration and motility, as well as lower sperm DNA fragmentation. Apart from mineral components such as zinc and selenium, the role of omega-3 fatty acids and antioxidant vitamins should be emphasized, since their action will be based primarily on the minimization of oxidative stress and inflammation process. Additionally, the incorporation of carnitine supplements and coenzyme Q10 in therapeutic intervention seems also promising. Therefore, it is advisable to have a varied and balanced diet based on vegetables and fruit, fish and seafood, nuts, seeds, whole-grain products, poultry and low-fat dairy products.

This note applies the Logistic model approximation to determine the suitable start and end dates for the observed epidemic curves in the total number of cases for different countries. The Logistic model is presented and explicit relations for the beginning and end dates are obtained together with the total epidemic duration. Using data from Brazil, Germany, Italy, and South Korea, the extreme dates are calculated. Since the epidemic onset time is found, a fair comparison of the epidemic curve for these countries is obtained. The result does not depend on the poor statistics available in the early phase of the epidemic when the initial number of infectives is unknown. In fact, the total duration depends only on the characteristic time parameter of the LM model.

Italy was the first country in Europe which imposed control measures of travel restrictions, quarantine and contact precautions to tackle the epidemic spread of the novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) in all its regions. While such efforts are still ongoing, uncertainties regarding SARS-CoV-2 transmissibility and ascertainment of cases make it difficult to evaluate the effectiveness of restrictions. Here, we employed a Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered-Dead (SEIRD) model to assess SARS-CoV-2 transmission dynamics, working on the number of reported patients in intensive care unit (ICU) and deaths in Sicily (Italy), from 24 February to 13 April. Overall, we obtained a good fit between estimated and reported data, with a small fraction of unreported SARS-CoV-2 cases (19.5%; 95%CI=0%-34.7%) before 10 March lockdown. Interestingly, we estimated that the first set of restrictions reduced transmission rate in the community by 42% (95%CI=38%-46%), and that more stringent measures adopted on 23 March succeeded to drastically curb the transmission rate by 84% (95%CI=80%-88%). Thus, our estimates delineated the characteristics of SARS-CoV2 epidemic before restrictions taking into account unreported data. Further modeling after the adoption of control measures, moreover, indicated that restrictions reduced SARS-CoV2 transmission considerably.

In the midst of the novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) epidemic, examining reported case data could lead to biased speculations and conclusions. Indeed, estimation of unreported infections is crucial for a better understanding of the current emergency in China and in other countries. In this study, we aimed to estimate the unreported number of infections in China prior to 23 March 2020 restrictions. To do that, we developed a Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered-Dead (SEIRD) model which estimated unreported cases and infections from the reported number of deaths. Our approach relied on the fact that observed deaths were less likely to be affected by reporting biases than reported infections. Interestingly, we estimated that R0 was 2.43 (95%CI= 2.42 – 2.44) at the beginning of the epidemic, and that 92.9% (95%CI= 92.5% - 93.1%) of total cases were not reported. Similarly, the proportion of unreported new infections by day ranged from 52.1% to 100%, with a total of 91.8% (95%CI= 91.6% - 92.1%) unreported infections. Agreement between our estimates and those from previous studies proved that our approach was reliable to estimate prevalence and incidence of undocumented SARS-CoV2 infections. Once tested on Chinese data, our model could be applied on other countries with different surveillance and testing policies.

Many physiotherapy treatments begin with a diagnosis process. The patient describes symptoms, upon which the physiotherapist decides which tests to perform until a final diagnosis is reached. The relationships between the anatomical components are too complex to keep in mind and the possible actions are abundant. A trainee physiotherapist with little experience naively applies multiple tests to reach the root cause of the symptoms, which is a highly inefficient process. This work proposes to assist students in this challenge by presenting three main contributions: (1) A compilation of the neuromuscular system as components of a system in a Model-Based Diagnosis problem; (2) The PhysIt is an AI-based tool that enables an interactive visualization and diagnosis to assist trainee physiotherapists; and (3) An empirical evaluation that comprehends performance analysis and a user study. The performance analysis is based on evaluation of simulated cases and common scenarios taken from anatomy exams. The user study evaluates the efficacy of the system to assist students in the beginning of the clinical studies. The results show that our system significantly decreases the number of candidate diagnoses, without discarding the correct diagnosis, and that students in their clinical studies find PhysIt helpful in the diagnosis process.

Traditionally, studies on freeze–thaw erosion have used the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) to calculate the weight of evaluation factors, however, this method cannot accurately depict the fuzziness and randomness of the problem. To overcome this disadvantage, the present study has proposed an improved AHP method based on the cloud model to evaluate the impact factors in freeze–thaw erosion. To establish an improved evaluation method for freeze–thaw erosion in Tibet, the following six factors were selected: annual temperature range, average annual precipitation, slope, aspect, vegetation coverage, and topographic relief. The traditional AHP and the cloud model were combined to determine the weight of the impact factors, and a consistency check was performed. The comprehensive evaluation index model was used to evaluate the intensity of freeze–thaw erosion in Tibet. The results show that freeze–thaw erosion is extensive, stretching over approximately 66.1% of Tibet. The problem is the most serious in Ngari Prefecture and Nagqu. However, mild erosion and moderate erosion, accounting for 37.1% and 25.0%, respectively, of the total freeze–thaw erosion are the most widely distributed. The evaluation results for the freeze–thaw erosion was confirmed to be consistent with the actual situation. In brief, this study provided a new approach to evaluate the conditions of freeze–thaw erosion quantitively in Tibet.

Worldwide the steel corrosion is one of the greatest deterioration problems for reinforced concrete structures. Comparing some literature experimental results with a complex FEM model, the present paper points out the principal aspects those characterize the static behavior of RC elements damaged by corrosion. Moreover, the non-dimensional abaci defined for some specific case studies finalized to the evaluation of the residual flexural strength of corroded elements highlight the dangerousness of the corrosion degradation if the failure of the element is governed by the steel

Visible light photography diagnostic images are coloured ex vivo medical images popularly used in Dermatology and Endoscopy for diagnosis and monitoring. The need to protect the integrity of these images as well as associated patient data calls for techniques such as image steganography and watermarking. This research explores and compares the effect of watermarking on the YIQ and YCbCr colour transforms used in processing digital coloured images and video in recent times. Using a new spread spectrum watermarking algorithm, it was found that YIQ has better distortion performance than YCbCr in the order of 3dB while YCbCr had lower BER for accurate watermark retrieval and tamper detection in the order of 1.3 x 10-3.

Nowadays, one of the biggest concern of human being is greenhouse gas emission, especially carbon dioxide emission in developed and under-developing countries. In this study, connectionist models including LSSVM (Least Square Support Vector Machine) and evolutionary methods are employed for predicting the amount of CO₂ emission in six Latin American countries, i.e., Brazil, Mexico, Argentina, Peru, Chile, Venezuela, and Uruguay. The studied region is modelled based on the available input data in terms of Million tons including oil (Million tons), gas (Million tons oil equivalent), coal (Million tons oil equivalent), $R_{ew}$ (Million tons oil equivalent), and Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in terms of billion US dollars.} Moreover, the available patents in the fields of climate change mitigation in six Latin American countries namely Brazil, Mexico, Argentina, Peru, Chile, Venezuela, and Uruguay has been reviewed and analyzed. The results show that except Venezuela, all other mentioned countries have invested in renewable energy R&D activities. Brazil and Argentina have the highest share of renewable energies which account for 60% and 72% respectively.

Here, we have discovered a X-ray excited long afterglow phosphor β-NaYF₄: Tb³⁺. After the irradiation of X-ray, the green emission can persist for more than 240 h. After 36 h, the afterglow intensity arrived at 0.69 mcd•m^-2, which can clearly be observed by naked eyes. Even after 84 h, the afterglow emission brightness still reached 0.087 mcd•m^-2. Also, combined with the results of thermoluminescence and photoluminescence, the super long afterglow emission of β-NaYF₄: Tb³⁺ can be ascribed to the tunneling model associated with F centers. More importantly, the super long green afterglow emission of β-NaYF₄: Tb³⁺ has been successfully used as in vivo light source to activate g-C₃N₄ for photodynamic therapy（PDT）and bacteria destruction. Furthermore, super long persistent luminescence of β-NaYF₄: Tb³⁺ could be repeatedly charged by X-ray for many circulations, which indicates that the phosphors have high photo stability under repeated cycles of alternating X-ray irradiation.

This paper presents a hydrodynamic numerical model for a pitching wave energy converter (WEC). The model uses potential wave theory and is based on Cummins' equation, with nonlinear hydrostatic restoring stiffness and excitation forces based on instantaneous body position and water surface elevation. The numerical model can include non-linear forces, like quadratic drag, power-take-off and other forces that may account for unknown viscous effects observed in experiments. The paper discusses the applicability and limitations of the code and presents the cases where assumptions and simplifications can be made. The goal is to conclude on the simplest, yet accurate, version of the model by evaluating its accuracy using experimental data. The case study for validation is Floating Power Plant's (FPP's) WEC [1]. In the full-scale commercial project, FPP's device consists of a semisubmersible platform hosting a wind turbine (5-8MW) and 4 WECs, each one connected to the platform by a rotation shaft. Due to the configuration of the platform, strong interactions occur between the WECs and the structure, as they are very closely spaced. In order to validate a numerical model able to simulate these hydrodynamic interactions, wave basin experiments with a similar but simplified setup were performed.

The practice of spatial econometrics revolves around a weighting matrix, which is often supplied by the user on previous knowledge. This is the so called $\mathbf{W}$ issue. Probably, the aprioristic approach is not the best solution although, nowadays, there few alternatives for the user. Our contribution focuses on the problem of selecting a $\mathbf{W}$ matrix from among a finite set of matrices, all of them considerer appropriate for the case. We develop a new and simple method based on the Entropy corresponding to the distribution of probability estimated for the data. Other alternatives, which are common in current applied work, are also reviewed. The paper includes a large Monte Carlo to calibrate the effectiveness of our approach compared to the others. A well-known case study is also included.

The goal of this contribution is an application of the Linear General Model Predictive Control (LGMPC). In this paper, stability of the LGMPC is proven by means of a demonstration of a Theorem stating a sufficient and constructive condition. This condition can be applied for calculating the weight matrices of the cost function in the optimisation problem in LGMPC. Lower bounds conditions are found for one of these matrices and then a system with saturation is taken into consideration. The conditions could be interpreted and discussions through physical aspects. The obtained results were tested by means of computer simulations and an example with a recover water process is considered.

Heating systems such as heat pump and combined heat and power cycle systems (CHP) are representing a key component in the future smart grid. Their capability to couple the electricity and heat sector promises a massive potential to the energy transition. Hence, these systems are continuously studied numerical and experimental to quantify their potential and develop optimal control methods. Although numerical simulations provide time and cost-effective solution for system development and optimization, they are exposed to several uncertainties. Hardware in the loop (HiL) system enables system validation and evaluation under different real-life dynamic constraints and boundary conditions. In this paper, a HiL system of heat pump testbed is presented. This system is used to present two case studies. In the first case, the conventional heat pump testbed operation method is compared to the HiL operation method. Energetic and dynamic analyses are performed to quantify the added value of the HiL and its necessity for dynamics analysis. The second case, the HiL testbed is used to validate the heat pump operation in a single family house participating in a local energy market. It enables not only the dynamics of the heat pump and the space heating circuit to be validated but also the building room temperature. The energetic analysis indicated a deviation of 2% and 5% for heat generation and electricity consumption of the heat pump, respectively. The model dynamics emphasized the model capability to present the dynamics of a real system with a temporal distortion of 3%.

Network Simulators (NS) is typically used to study services and applications in complex scenarios due to the infeasibility of deploying real testbeds. This is the case of Mobile Ad hoc Networks (MANETs) which can be extensively used in emergency situations or to gather information without infraestructure. An important factor to get realiable results in the MANETs’ simulations is the wireless channel module of NSs. In this report, we explain how thw wireless channel is implemented in NS-3 and it can be configured.

The aim of this study was to investigate the effect of discoursal approach on Iranian intermediate EFL learners’ reading comprehension ability. Quick Placement Test (QPT) was used to select 60 intermediate EFL learners as the participants of this study. Then, they were randomly divided into experimental and control groups. Each consisted of 30 learners. Prior to the treatment, the participants of both groups were given a pretest to ensure their reading comprehension. The experimental group was exposed to the Hymes’ model. In the control group the researcher used placebo for teaching reading skill. Then a posttest was administered to both groups. An Independent samples t-test between posttests of the study and a paired-samples t-test between the pretest and posttest of the groups of the study were run. The results of the study revealed and emphasized that the Hymes’ model improved the learners’ reading comprehension.

Spirit of science is one of the important components of science education theory. It not only directly affects the level of science education, but also indirectly affects the selection, education and evaluation of scientific researchers, and the development of science and technology in a country or region. Although more than a century ago, the researchers began to discuss the topic of spirit of science. However, to date, the research of the definition, attribute, structural model and its characteristics of the spirit of science has not yet made a breakthrough. Based on the detailed literature review, the related theoretical analysis and the research of the structural model of the spirit of science, this paper puts forward the new definition, the attribute and the establishment of the structural model of the spirit of science, and analyzes the match the situation from new structural model of the spirit of science and the scientific nature published by the American Society for the Advancement of Science. The results of this study are of great significance for raising the level of scientific education and cultivating future scientific researchers, enhancing their motivation and skills in innovation in scientific research and promoting the development of future scientific undertakings.

The isoenergetic cycle is a purely mechanical cycle comprised of adiabatic and isoenergetic processes. In the latter the system interacts with an energy bath keeping constant the expectation value of the Hamiltonian. This cycle has been mostly studied in systems consisting of particles confined in a power-law trap. In this work we study the performance of the isoenergetic cycle for a system described by the quantum Rabi model for the case of controlling the coupling strength parameter, the resonator frequency and the two-level system frequency. For the cases of controlling either the coupling strength parameter or the resonator frequency, we find that it is possible to closely approach to maximal unit efficiency when the parameter is sufficiently increased in the first adiabatic stage. In addition, for the first two cases the maximal work extracted is obtained at parameter values corresponding to high efficiency which constitutes an improvement over current proposals of this cycle.

This paper deals with a non-contact method to identify the aerodynamic propeller parameters of the Parrot AR.Drone quadrotor. The experimental set consists in a camera recording the vehicle flights, the audio signal is extracted and is used a spectrogram analysis to estimates the propeller velocity. First, the aerial vehicle takes off and starts a hovering maneuver. The experiment is repeated with different additional masses attached to its rigid body. If the weight over the UAV increases/decreases, then the propeller must rotates faster/slower to produce a higher/lower thrust, and consequently, the sound frequency increases/decreases. Finally, this proposition is validated experimentally, and the estimated velocity is used to identify the quadrotor thrust parameters.

Fear can sometimes paralyze us, and it can sometimes be exciting; for some people, fear is so crippling it can significantly mix up their lifes! We understand a little bit about how the brain acts when we are afraid, mainly by studying the brains of animals. Recently, surprising findings were made using a humble animal, the zebrafish – a small aquarium fish that in the past has helped scientists figure out how our organs develop. Zebrafish are useful because they develop quickly, reproduce richly, and have brains which are similar to ours. They also produce what we call an “alarm substance” that alerts shoalmates when one of them has been injured; when they smell this substance in the water they act as if they are very scared. When this happens, they release serotonin in their brains, a neurotransmitter that acts as a light switch, making them less afraid but more cautious – as if trying to figure out if a predator is there or not. Hopefully, finding more about how the zebrafish brains process this serotonin signal can help scientists develop better treatments for mental disorders that are associated with fear.

This paper introduces a surrogate model to reduce the huge computational load in the process of simulation-optimization and uncertainty analysis. First, the groundwater numerical simulation model was established, calibrated and verified in the northeast of Hetao Plain. Second, two surrogate models of simulation model were established using support vector regression (SVR) method, one (surrogate model A, SMA) was used to describe the corresponding relationship between the pumping rate and average groundwater table drawdown, and another (surrogate model B, SMB) was used to express the corresponding relationship between the hydrogeological parameter values and average groundwater table drawdown. Third, an optimization model was established to search an optimal groundwater exploitation scheme using the maximum total pumping rate as objective function and the limitative average groundwater table drawdown as constraint condition, the SMA was invoked by the optimization model for obtaining the optimal groundwater exploitation scheme. Finally, the SMB was invoked in the process of uncertainty analysis for assessing the reliability of optimal groundwater exploitation scheme. Results show that the relative error and root mean square error between simulation model and the two surrogate models are both less than 5%, which is a high approximation accuracy. The SVR surrogate model developed in this study could not only considerably reduce the computational load, but also maintain high computational accuracy. The optimal total pumping rate is 7947 m3/d and the reliability of optimal scheme is 40.21%. This can thus provide an effective method for identifying an optimal groundwater exploitation scheme and assessing the reliability of scheme quickly and accurately.

There is no simple method to measure glomerular filtration rate (GFR) in swine, an established model to study renal disease. We developed a protocol to measure GFR in conscious swine with the plasma clearance of iohexol. We used two groups: testing and validation, of 8 animals each. Ten milliliters of iohexol (6.47 g) were injected by the marginal auricular vein and blood samples (3 ml) were collected from the orbital sinus at different points after injection. GFR was determined considering two models: two-compartments (CL2: all samples) and one-compartment (CL1: the last six samples). In the testing group, CL1 overestimated CL2 by ~30%: CL2=245±93 and CL1=308±123 ml/mn. This error was corrected by a first order polynomial quadratic equation to CL1, which was considered the simplified method: SM=-47.909+(1.176xCL1)–(0.00063968xCL1²). SM showed narrow limits of agreement with CL2, and a concordance correlation of 0.97 and a total deviation index of 14.73%. Similar results were obtained for the validation group. This protocol is reliable, reproducible, can be performed in conscious animals, uses a single dose of the marker, and requires a reduced number of samples avoiding urine collection. Finally, it portends a significant improvement in animal-welfare conditions and handling necessities in experimental trials.

The aim of this study was to evaluate the nature of relationship between service quality and customers’ satisfaction thorough SERVQUAL model. This study can be considered as an applied research, from purpose point of view and descriptive-survey, with regards to the nature and method. Passengers of Kaveh and Sofeh terminal in Isfahan have been considered as research population. Sample size included 200 passengers witch was determined by Cochran formula. Spss 19 was used to analyze collected data. Results show that there is a significant positive relationship between service quality and customers’ satisfaction. It is also proved that in terms of the importance of satisfactions’ dimensions, assurance is the most important aspect and then reliability, empathy, equipment appearance and responsiveness in sequence are the most important dimensions.

Strategic researches on green mine construction are of great theoretical and practical significance to the sustainable development of China's mining industry as well as the great-leap-forward development strategies of China. Strategies of green mine construction in China are methods summarized to solve all potential problems from mine production to ecological restoration. At present, strategies of green mine construction in China are not fully evaluated and studied yet. Therefore, on the basis of green mine construction related literatures carried out by researchers in China and abroad, this study took the green mine of Yongcheng City in China as the research object to evaluate the current situation of green mine construction in Yongcheng City and put forward corresponding countermeasures. First of all, driving force-pressure-state-impact-response (DPSIR) model was introduced for the construction of evaluation index system; construction principles and selection methods of indexes and the index system based on driving force, pressure, state, impact and response were constructed. Secondly, principal component analysis (PCA) was adopted to calculate and evaluate data of green mine of Yongcheng City in recent years, and construction state of green mine in Yongcheng City was analyzed concretely according to the evaluation results. Empirical results showed that, the evaluation system constructed in this study was feasible, which could be applied to evaluate construction of green mine effectively.

Day-ahead forecasting of electricity prices is important in deregulated electricity markets for all the stakeholders: energy wholesalers, traders, retailers, and consumers. Electricity price forecasting is an inherently difficult problem due to its special characteristic of dynamicity and non-stationarity. In this paper, we present a robust price forecasting mechanism that shows resilience towards aggregate demand response effect and provides highly accurate forecasted electricity prices to the stakeholders in a dynamic environment. We employ an ensemble prediction model in which a group of different algorithms participate in predicting the price for each hour of a day. We propose two different strategies, namely, Fixed Weight Method (FWM) and Varying Weight Method (VWM), for selecting each hour's expert algorithm from the set of participating algorithms. In addition, we utilize a carefully engineered set of features selected from a pool of features derived from information such as past electricity price data, weather data, and calendar data. The proposed ensemble model offers better results than both the Pattern Sequence-based Forecasting (PSF) method and our own previous work using Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) alone do on the datasets for New York, Australian, and Spanish electricity markets.

The cell case temperature versus time profiles of a multistage fast charging technique (4C-1C-CV)/fast discharge (4C) in a 2.3 Ah cylindrical lithium-ion cell are analyzed using a 1D thermal model. Heat generation is dominated by the irreversible component associated to cell overpotential, although evidences of the reversible component are also observed, associated to the heat related to entropy from the electrode reactions. The final charging stages (i.e., 1C-CV) significantly reduce heat generation and cell temperature during charge, resulting in a thermally safe charging protocol. Cell heat capacity was determined from cell specific heats and cell materials thickness. The 1D model adjustment of the experimental data during the 2 min. resting period between discharge and charge allowed us to calculate both the time constant of the relaxation process and the cell thermal resistance. The obtained values of these thermal parameters used in the proposed model are almost equal to those found in the literature for the same cell model, which suggests that the proposed model is suitable for its implementation in thermal management systems.

The average age of in-service bridges has increased in recent years in the United States. To address this issue, structural health monitoring and damage identification approaches can be employed to prioritize maintenance/replacement of aging bridges. Among the damage identification and operational health monitoring approaches, finite element (FE) model updating methods can offer a solution to evaluate the mechanics-based characteristics of bridges. However, in a real-world setting, unidentifiability and mutual dependency between model parameters, modeling errors, especially due to boundary conditions, as well as ill-conditioning of updating algorithms can pose challenges to the application of FE model updating methods. To address these challenges, this study presents a two-step FE model updating approach. In the first step, modal-based model updating is used to estimate linear model parameters mainly related to the stiffness of boundary conditions and material properties. In the second step, in order to refine parameter estimation accounting for nonlinear response behavior of the bridge, a time-domain model updating is carried out. In this step, boundary conditions are fixed at their final estimates using modal-based model updating. To prevent the convergence of updating algorithm to local solutions, the initial estimates for nonlinear material properties are selected based on their corresponding final estimates in the modal-based model updating. To validate the applicability of the two-step FE model updating approach, a series of forced-vibration experiments are designed and carried out on a pair of decommissioned and deteriorated prestressed bridge I-girders. After carrying out the two-step FE model updating, the final estimates of concrete compressive strength are shown to provide reasonable assessment of the damage extent in the girders.

Hemoconcentration membranes used in cardiopulmonary bypass require a pore structure design with high pure water permeability, and which does not allow protein adsorption and useful protein loss. However, studies on hemoconcentration membranes have not been conducted yet. The purpose of this study was to analyze three-dimensional pore structures and protein fouling before and after blood contact with capillary membranes using the tortuous pore diffusion model and a scanning probe microscope system. We examined two commercially available capillary membranes of similar polymer composition that are successfully used in hemoconcentration clinically. Assuming the conditions of actual use in cardiopulmonary bypass, we perfused these membranes with bovine blood. Pure water permeability before and after bovine blood perfusion was measured using the dead-end filtration. The scanning probe microscopy system was used for analysis. High-resolution three-dimensional pore structures on the inner surface of the membranes were observed before blood contact. On the other hand, pore structures after blood contact could not be observed due to protein fouling. The pore diameters calculated by the tortuous pore diffusion model and scanning probe microscopy were mostly similar and could be validated reciprocally. Achievable pure water permeabilities showed no difference despite protein fouling, leading to low values of albumin SC. This is due to the mechanism that protein fouling occurs on the membrane surface, while there is little internal pore blocking. Therefore, controlling the fouling is essential for membranes in medical use. These characteristics of the hemoconcentration membranes examined in this study are suitable for clinical use.

Bayesian model calibration techniques are commonly employed in the characterization of nonlinear dynamic systems, as they provide a conceptual and effective framework to deal with model uncertainties, experimental errors and procedure assumptions. This understanding has resulted in the need to introduce a model discrepancy term to account for the differences between model-based predictions and real observations. Indeed, the goal of this work is to enhance model-driven Structural Health Monitoring procedures by incorporating the posterior uncertainty linked to updated model discrepancy, and thus make relevant considerations for its use in the Structural Health Monitoring. Specifically, the Bayesian inference has been applied to the calibration of nonlinear hysteretic systems to both provide: (i) most probable values (MPV) of the parameters following the calibration, and; (ii) estimates of the model discrepancy posterior distribution. The effect of the model discrepancy in the calibration is first illustrated recurring to a single degree of freedom Bouc-Wen type oscillator, and then applied for calibrating a reference nonlinear Bouc-Wen model, deriving from real data acquired on a monitored masonry building.

This paper presents an approach to the application of the Model-Based Systems Engineering (MBSE) and Model-Based Systems Architecting (MBSA) principles to develop a Model-Based Pattern Language (MBPL). It takes too long for systems engineers and architects to develop a new system from scratch, particularly new space-based systems derived from the existing space systems architectures. A pattern language is a holistic view of reusable logical model artifacts; many are interdisciplinary and introductory, if at all. The results are mostly a combination of the application-specific logical solution, which further results in the best possible overall solution. The main benefit of the pattern language is reducing the time and validation required to generate a new space-based system architecture; this approach will develop top-level requirements in the initial phase of the system development. The rationale of the methodology proposed by the paper is as follows, collect, and decompose published literature and other open-source information available on space system architectures and system models; develop SysML models for systems, subsystems, products, assembly, subassembly level, and mission-specific requirements using CAMEO SysML software. Arrange these patterns to develop a functional ontology and construct a logical architecture pattern library. This approach created, updated, and managed SysML pattern language, which evaluated the expedited new model construction. Again, our objective is to develop a logical pattern language using public domain information and evaluate patterns by constructing a new space mission concept—for example, planetary surface habitat.

Modular steel buildings (MSBs) interlocking inter-module connections (IMCs) have piqued researchers’ interest. However, the existing literature has not yet studied the optimisation of its plate thicknesses. This paper, therefore, focuses on optimising interlocking (IMCs) plate thickness in (MSBs), leveraging previous experimental and numerical simulation methodologies. Various numerical models for four MSBs interlocking (IMCs) with plate thicknesses (4 mm, 6 mm, 10 mm, and 12 mm) were developed under compression loading conditions. The study’s novelty lay in its comprehensive parametric analysis, which evaluated the slip phenomenon in (MSBs) connections and introduced a slip prediction model validated against empirical data. Further innovative machine learning approach was utilised to predict slip values based on applied force through a random forest regression model trained using the 'Treebagger' function. Sensitivity analysis and comparisons with alternative methods were utilised to underscore the reliability and applicability of the findings. The results showed that 11.03 mm was the optimal plate thickness for interlocking (IMCs) in modular steel buildings, with up to 8.08% reduced material costs. Increasing plate thickness boosts its deformation resistance by up to 50.75%. ‘TreeBagger’ random forest for anomaly detection and machine learning improves slip prediction up to 7% at higher force levels.

Based on recent interest and on the importance of the ongoing climate change catastrophe, this article provides the basics of global carbon cycle modelling as required for the assessment of the degree of carbon neutrality of biomass energy, and its underlying dynamics. It is aimed at clari-fying the question “Are biomass fuels carbon neutral?”. The "Combined Energy and Biosphere Model" (CEBM) computes annual carbon flows including growth and decay of plants on 2.52.5° grid elements of the continents’ surface and offers detailed results on the changes of after implementation of large-scale biomass energy strategies world-wide. The main (and possibly unexpected) effect is the long-term depletion of the soil organic compartment after extraction of biomass fuels. When comparing CEBM model runs using (i) biomass energy sources and (ii) carbon-free energy sources (such as solar or wind), it becomes quantitatively clear already on the theoretical level (i.e., even without taking into account effi-ciency losses) that biomass is only “half as carbon neutral” as ideally assumed, to express a rule of thumb – mainly because of soil carbon depletion. Still, biomass energy will play an important role when fighting global warming, even if efforts to lower energy demand are preferable as a fundamental strategy.

This study explores the application of numerical analysis and material models to predict ice impact loads on ships and offshore structures operating in polar regions. An explicit finite element analysis (FEA) approach was employed to simulate an ice and steel plate collision experiment conducted in a cold chamber. The pressure and strain history during the ice collision were calculated and compared with the experimental results. Various material model configurations were applied to the FEA to account for the versatile behavior of ice—whether ductile or brittle—its elastic-plastic yield criteria, and its dynamic strain rate dependency. In addition to the standard linear elastic perfectly plastic and linear elastic-plastic relationships, this study incorporated the crushable foam and Drucker-Prager models, based on the specific ice yield criteria. Considering the ice’s strain rate dependency, collision simulations were conducted for each yield criteria model to compute the strain and reaction force of the plate specimens. By comparing the predicted pressures for each material model combination with the pressures from ice collision experiments, our study proposes material models that consider the yielding, damage, and behavioral characteristics of ice. Lastly, our study proposes a combination of ice material properties that can accurately predict collision force.

The particulars of stimulus-response experiments done on dynamic biosystems clearly limit what one can learn and validate about their structural interconnectivity (topology), even when collected kinetic output data are perfect (noise-free). As always, available access ports and other data limitations rule. For linear systems, exponential modes, visible and hidden, play an important role in understanding data limitations, embodied in what we call dynamical signatures in the data. We show here how to circumscribe and analyze modal response data in compartmentalizing model structures – so that modal analysis can be used constructively in systems biology model building – for nonlinear (NL) as well as linear biosystems. We do this by developing and exploiting the modal basis for dynamical signatures in hypothetical (perfect) input-output data associated with a structural model – one that includes inputs and outputs explicitly – and for NL as well as linear biosystems. The methodology establishes model dimensionality (size, complexity) from particular data sets; helps select among multiple candidate models (model distinguishability); helps in designing new experiments to extract “hidden” structure; and helps to simplify (reduce) models to their essentials. For NL biosystems, results are not as comprehensive, similarly informative about their dominant dynamical properties, and unified with linear models on invariant 2-dimensional manifolds in phase space. Some automation of these highly technical aspects of biomodeling is also introduced.

We employ hierarchy of models (HoM) with 2, 3 and 4 parameters to reanalyze the nucleation kinetics in the electrodeposition as quantified by n(t) - “the number of nuclei vs. time” data obtained at different overvoltages from precise experiments on electrodeposition of Hg on two different types of Pt-cathodes by Ivan V. Markov and Evgenia Stoycheva [1]. The obtained two scales, nmax and , are used to rescale the original data mapping it on a master curve in coordinates . Our main result is obtained by studying further the dependence of these two scales on the overvoltage (analogue of supersaturation). Surprisingly, for one of the two cathode types - the “hemispherical single-crystal electrode” (as defined by the authors), there is discontinuity in the “ vs. overvoltage” dependence – an almost horizontal jump from 85 to 86 mV accompanied by a change in the slope of the dependence - it is ~ -1 and ~ -0.5 after. For the other cathode - “plane structureless platinum electrode”,  decreases smoothly. Combined, these two behaviors point at the so called “cusp catastrophe”. We compare our findings with published results on protein nucleation.

Missing item responses are prevalent in educational large-scale assessment studies like the programme for international student assessment (PISA). The current operational practice scores missing item responses as wrong, but several psychometricians advocated a model-based treatment based on latent ignorability assumption. In this approach, item responses and response indicators are jointly modeled conditional on a latent ability and a latent response propensity variable. Alternatively, imputation-based approaches can be used. The latent ignorability assumption is weakened in the Mislevy-Wu model that characterizes a nonignorable missingness mechanism and allows the missingness of an item to depend on the item itself. The scoring of missing item responses as wrong and the latent ignorable model are submodels of the Mislevy-Wu model. This article uses the PISA 2018 mathematics dataset to investigate the consequences of different missing data treatments on country means. Obtained country means can substantially differ for the different scaling models. In contrast to previous statements in the literature, the scoring of missing item responses as incorrect provided a better model fit than a latent ignorable model for most countries. Furthermore, the dependence of the missingness of an item from the item itself after conditioning on the latent response propensity was much more pronounced for constructed-response items than for multiple-choice items. As a consequence, scaling models that presuppose latent ignorability should be refused from two perspectives. First, the Mislevy-Wu model is preferred over the latent ignorable model for reasons of model fit. Second, we argue that model fit should only play a minor role in choosing psychometric models in large-scale assessment studies because validity aspects are most relevant. Missing data treatments that countries can simply manipulate (and, hence, their students) result in unfair country comparisons.

Thousands of people worldwide suffer from injuries in the peripheral nerve and deal daily with the resulting physiological and functional deficits. Recent advances in this field are still insufficient to guarantee effective outcomes, and the development of new and effective therapeutic options requires the use of valid preclinical models that effectively replicate the characteristics and challenges associated with these injuries in humans. In this study, we established a sheep model for common peroneal nerve injuries that can be applied in preclinical research with the advantages associated with the use of large animal models. In an integrative way, this article includes a detailed description of the anatomy and functionality of the peripheral nerves of sheep’s hind limb, the surgical protocol for accessing the common peroneal nerve, the induction of different types of nerve damage and the application of possible therapeutic options. A neurological exam protocol directed to the common peroneal nerve was also established, allowing to identify the changes and deficits related with the nerve injury and to evaluate the functional progression over time. Finally, a preliminary stereological study was carried out to establish control values for the healthy peroneal common nerves of this model and to identify preliminary differences between therapeutic methods. The ultimate goal is to demonstrate that sheep is a valid model of peripheral nerve injury to be used in pre-clinical and translational works and to evaluate the efficacy and safety of nerve injury therapeutic options before its clinical application in human and veterinary patients.

Modern medicine adopted four presumptions when it evolved from ancient experienced-based mind-body medicine. To understand its failure in finding cures for chronic diseases, we examined four presumptions, and found that statistical population of health properties does not exist for most research purposes, mathematical models are misused to model intensive properties, synthetic drugs are inherently more dangerous than nature-made medicines under their respective application conditions, and reductionist treatments are inferior and inherently dangerous. We found that clinical trials are valid only for research where treatment effect is much stronger than the total effects of all interfering or co-causal factors or errors introduced by misused mathematical models can be tolerated. In all other situations, clinical trials introduce excessive errors and fail to detect treatment effects, or produce biased, incorrect or wrong results. We further found that chronic diseases are manifestation of small departures in multiple process attributes in distinctive personal biological pathways networks, that modern medicine lacks required accuracy for accurately characterizing chronic diseases, and that reductionist treatments are good at controlling symptoms and safe for short term uses. For all stated reasons, as long as modern medicine continues relying on the flawed presumptions, it can never find predictable cures for chronic diseases. By implication, predictable cures to chronic diseases are adjustments to lifestyle, dietary, emotional, and environmental factors to slowly correct departures in process attributes responsible for chronic diseases.

There are no theorems (proven theories) in the biological sciences. We propose that the 3 31 nt minihelix tRNA evolution theorem be universally accepted as one. The 3 31 nt minihelix theorem completely describes evolution of type I and type II tRNAs from ordered precursors (RNA repeats and inverted repeats). Despite diversification of tRNAome sequences, statistical tests overwhelmingly support the theorem. Furthermore, the theorem relates the dominant pathway for the origin of life on Earth, specifically, how tRNAomes and the genetic code may have coevolved. Alternate models for tRNA evolution (i.e., 2 minihelix, convergent and accretion models) are falsified. In the context of the pre-life world, tRNA was a molecule that via mutation could modify anticodon sequences and teach itself to code. We relate the clearest history to date of the chemical evolution of life on Earth. From analysis of tRNA evolution, ribozyme-mediated RNA ligation was a primary driving force in evolution of complexity during the pre-life to life transition on Earth.

Despite great technical capabilities, the theory of non-contact temperature measurement is usually not fully applicable to the use of measuring instruments in practice. While black body calibrations are in practice well established and easy to accomplish, this calibration protocol is never fully applicable to measurements of real objects under real conditions. Currently, the best approximation to real world radiation thermometry is grey body radiation thermometry, which is supported by most measuring instruments to date. Nevertheless, the metrological requirements necessitate traceability, therefore real body radiation thermometry is required for temperature measurements of real bodies. This article documents the current state of temperature calculation algorithms for radiation-thermometers and the creation of a traceable model for radiation thermometry of real bodies that uses a digital twin model of the system of measurement to compensate for the loss of data, caused by spectral integration, which occurs when thermal radiation is absorbed on the active surface of the sensor. To solve this problem, a hybrid model with variable scalar inputs is proposed, in which the scalar input parameters are calculated to correspond to the system of measurement. The method for calculating the effective parameters is proposed and verified with the theoretical model of non-contact thermometry. The sum of effective instrumental parameters is presented for different temperatures to show that the rule of radiation thermometry of grey bodies, according to which the sum of instrumental emissivity and instrumental reflectivity equals to 1, does not hold in radiation thermometry for real bodies. Using the derived models of radiation thermometry, the uncertainty of radiation thermometry due to the uncertainty of spectral emissivity is analysed by simulated measurements along the temperature ranges of various radiation thermometers, enabling traceable non-contact temperature measurements with known measurement uncertainty under any known conditions.

To address the requirements of sonar imaging, such as high receiving sensitivity, wide bandwidth, wide receiving angle, an AlN PMUT with an optimized ratio of 0.6 for the piezoelectric layer diameter to backside cavity diameter is proposed in this paper. A sample AlN PMUT is designed and fabricated with SOI substrate-based bulk MEMS process. The characterization test result of the sample demonstrates a -6 dB bandwidth of approximately 500 kHz and a measured receiving sensitivity per unit area of at 1.37 V/μPa/mm2, which significantly surpasses the performance of previously reported PMUTs. The -6 dB horizontal angles of the AlN PMUT at 300 kHz and 500 kHz are measured 68.30° and 54.24°, respectively. To achieve an accurate prediction of its characteristics when being packaged and assembled in a receive array, numerical simulations with the consideration of film stress are conducted. The numerical result shows a maximum deviation of ±7% in the underwater receiving sensitivity across the frequency range of 200 kHz to 1000 kHz and a deviation of about 0.33% in the peak of underwater receiving sensitivity comparing to the experimental data. By such good agreement, the simulation method reveals its capability of providing theoretical foundation for enhancing the uniformity of the AlN PMUTs in future studies.

In this report, we present a study demonstrating how machine learning methods can reveal the interaction of different risk factors of post-transplant leukemic relapse and obtain robust predictions even with a modest clinical dataset. Using a cohort of 63 pediatric patients with acute lymphocytic leukemia (ALL) and 46 patients with acute myeloid leukemia (AML) who underwent stem cell transplant at a single institution, we built predictive models of leukemic relapse with both pretransplant and posttransplant patient variables (specifically lineage-specific chimerism) using the random forest classifier. The random forest classifier revealed different important predictive factors between ALL and AML in our relapse models consistent with previous knowledge. Furthermore, it also distinguished donor CD34 chimerism as most impactful in relapse prediction compare to donor chimerism of other cellular lineages in our dataset for ALL but CD3 for AML. Our models greatly improved sensitivity and specificity at predicting relapses in cross validation compared to a reference model based on our own institutional incidence of relapse and inferential statistical principles. Local Interpretable Model-Agnostic Explanations, an interpretable machine learning tool, confirmed our Random Forest Classification result and provided an intuitive explanation of how our machine learning models made the relapse prediction for each individual patient.

The control of the fine particle emission from the coal-fired power plants has been a big challenge in china. Either the conventional electrostatic precipitator or the fabric filter has some shortages. The electrostatic precipitator is hard to keep high efficiency for the submicron particles. The fabric filter could keep high efficiency but with very high pressure drop. One solution is to combine them together. Several types of hybrid particle collectors (HPC) combining the electrostatic precipitator and the fabric filter together have been developed and applied in a number of projects in China. In recent years, numerical simulation technology has been widely used in the design of the collectors. In this paper, an unsteady numerical model is used to investigate the particle deposition characteristics in a scale hybrid collector. The fluid field is modeled by using incompressible Navier-Stokes equations with the RNG turbulence equations. The corona discharge is solved by using a finite volume method. The particle charging is modeled by using a filed-diffusing combined model. And an unsteady cake formation model is used to simulate the filtration process.

Currently there are fewer depth models applied to pepper picking detection, while the existing generalized neural networks have problems such as large model parameters, long training time, and low model accuracy.In order to solve the above problems, this paper proposes a Yolo-chili target detection algorithm for chili pepper detection. First, the classical target detection algorithm yolov5 is used as a benchmark model, and an adaptive spatial feature pyramid structure combining the attention mechanism and the idea of multi-scale prediction is introduced to improve the model's detection effect on occluded peppers and small target peppers. Secondly, a three-channel attention mechanism module is introduced to improve the algorithm's long-distance recognition ability and reduce the interference of redundant testers. Finally, the quantized pruning method is used to reduce the model parameters and realize the lightweight processing of the model. Applying the method to the homemade chili pepper dataset, the AP value of chili pepper reaches 93.11%; the accuracy rate is 93.51% and the recall rate is 92.55%.The experimental results show that yolo-chili is able to achieve accurate and real-time pepper detection under complex orchards.

Although researchers have proposed various indentation size effect (ISE) models, these models often involve different form and number of parameters that can make our wonder which is the best in existed ISE models. Three types of ISE test data, namely, normal ISE, reverse ISE and transition of normal to reverse ISE, are used to evaluate the sixteen ISE models. The comparatively study indicates that H-J, N-G-Fs, N-G-H, N-G-A and N-G-Qs models can accurately predict the normal ISE. The reason for this is that the friction stress that is not related to dislocation activities or the indentation size effect of plastic zone has been introduced into these models. Therefore, these two factors should be considered in future ISE models. The sixteen ISE models are originally proposed to describe the normal ISE of different materials. However, to our surprise, some of these models are able to capture the reverse ISE and the transition of normal to reverse ISE of different materials. The determination coefficients (DC) of the sixteen ISE models are also determined for different materials. For reverse ISE, the highest DC value for NiCSi, TC4 and PED Ni are given by the EXP, N-G-Fs and N-G-A models, respectively. For the transition of normal to reverse ISE, the N-G-YC, N-G-Fs, and N-G-H models produce the maximum DC for ZrO2, Cu and Y2O3-ZrO2, respectively. Moreover, the mean DC of the N-G-Fs model is the maximum among the sixteen ISE models, followed by the N-G-H model, but they cannot accurately predict the reverse ISE. Therefore, the N-G-Fs and N-G-H models should be further modified to accurately predict the reverse ISE.

Soil moisture can be an important indicator of climate change in humid and semi-arid areas. This indicator can more efficiently propose different public policies related to climate change than just using precipitation and temperature data. Given the above, the objective of this study is to evaluate changes in soil moisture in the state of Pernambuco during the period 1961-2021, using the System of Hydrological Response Units for Pernambuco. In this study, two river basins in the state of Pernambuco that represent the different climatic conditions of the state will be chosen. The results show that in the coastal region, there is a tendency towards more saturated soils, and in the semi-arid region, there is a tendency towards drier soils. With these results, it is possible to conclude that public policy decisions for the economy, environment, and society must consider this vital water balance variable.

Machine Learning is increasingly and ubiquitously being used in the medical domain. Evaluation metrics like accuracy, precision, and recall may indicate the performance of the models but not necessarily the reliability of their outcomes. This paper assesses the effectiveness of a number of machine learning algorithms applied to an important dataset in the medical domain, specifically, mental health, by employing explainability methodologies. Using multiple machine learning algorithms and model explainability techniques, the project provides insights into the model workings to help determine the reliability of the machine learning algorithm predictions. The results are not intuitive. It was found that the models were focusing significantly on less relevant features and at times, unsound ranking of the features to make the predictions. The paper therefore argues that it is important for research in applied machine learning to provide insights into explainability of the models in addition to other performance metrics like accuracy. This is particularly important for applications in critical domains such as healthcare. A future direction is to investigate methods to quantify the effectiveness of the machine learning models in terms of the insights from their explainability.

Although there is a vast body of neuroscientific research on cognitive behavioral therapy (CBT), many therapists are confused about how to incorporate the evidence into their clinical practice. This narrative review translates neuroscientific research on CBT for depression into a therapist-friendly formulation model. Four brain networks that are particularly relevant to depression, including the Central Executive Network, Default mode Network, Salience Network, and Affective Network, were identified based on their interactions and described in relation to depressive symptoms. Additionally, it clarified how each CBT technique works on a brain map. Assessment, intervention selection, and patient psychoeducation based on this model will facilitate the clinical application of neuroscience in CBT.

In his Cynefin classification of system behaviours, Snowden (2007), posits that his Simple (Clear ) and even Complicated system categories are sufficiently understandable to be amenable to the traditional methods of system analysis and modelling. Here, relationships between entities in the system are clear and unambiguous and they behave predictably. So, we can build mathematical “models” to describe how the system is expected to function in different situations. Leaving aside his fourth category, Chaotic, as too hard for the moment, this paper focusses on the third category, Complex systems. Yaneer Bar-Yam [1998] defined "complex systems" as systems that "have multiple interacting components, whose collective behaviour cannot be simply inferred from the behaviour of components." So, the traditional system modelling approach of decomposition into components and attempting to build up a picture of system performance from individual pieces, alone, is no longer appropriate for this class. The problem is that most of the methods we currently employ, and particularly the methods that attempt to make the case that these systems are safe, (such as Fault trees, FMEA. and Root Cause Analysis), rely on this decomposition into components and attempt to make the parts more reliable individually. Even the more systemic approaches, such as Reason’s (1990) Swiss Cheese Model, and Leveson’s System Theoretic Analysis (STPA) (2004), encourage adding layers of protection, barriers, strengthened control loops and better safety critical systems, in the hope that they are making the systems safer. But without a valid model to test the effectiveness of these add-ons, we cannot be sure that they will not have an opposite effect, of making the systems even more complex, unreliable and unpredictable. For complex systems, the careful gathering and documentation of system components and their relationships is still a necessary first step, but we need an additional capacity to model these complex systems to test out and prove they work safely and successfully in the real world. (not just draw fixed component relationships as system “models” (wiring diagrams)) In the last 10 years, an original approach developed by Hollnagel, (2012), to model systems as sets of interactive, interdependent “functions”, (abstracted from and independent of component details), has now been developed to the point where it can take the basic data and structures from the current component focussed system engineering “models”, such as MBSE( Goldberg (1994)), and can pull it all together in a dynamic system model from which analysts can discern how it really works in practice, and predict the emergent behaviours characteristic of complex systems. The paper describes how this methodology developed and how it is currently used to model real situations, to analyse incidents and anticipate events.

Lightning is responsible for most annually burned area by wildfires in the extratropical region of the Northern Hemisphere. Hence, predicting the occurrence of wildfires requires reliable forecasting of the chance of cloud-to-ground lightning strikes during storms. Here, we describe the development and verification of a probabilistic lightning-strike algorithm designed to run on a uniform 20-km grid over the Continental USA and Alaska. The algorithm consists of a large set of logistic equations parameterized via logistic regression using long-term data records of observed lightning strikes and meteorological reanalysis fields from NOAA. Principal Component Analysis was employed to extract 13 Principal Components (strong predictors) from a list of 611 potential predictors. Our statistical analysis revealed that the occurrence of cloud-to-ground lightning strikes primarily depends on three factors: horizontal temperature distribution by pressure levels, amount of low-level atmospheric moisture, and wind vectors. These physical variables impact the vertical separation of electric charges in the lower troposphere during storms causing the voltage potential between ground and the cloud deck to increase to a level that triggers electrical discharges. Results from a forecast verification using independent data showed excellent model skill, thus making this algorithm suitable for inclusion into software systems forecasting the chance of wildfire ignitions.