Preprint Article Version 1 Preserved in Portico This version is not peer-reviewed

Modeling the Novel Coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) Outbreak in Sicily, Italy

Version 1 : Received: 15 April 2020 / Approved: 16 April 2020 / Online: 16 April 2020 (08:24:07 CEST)

How to cite: Maugeri, A.; Barchitta, M.; Battiato, S.; Agodi, A. Modeling the Novel Coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) Outbreak in Sicily, Italy. Preprints 2020, 2020040267 (doi: 10.20944/preprints202004.0267.v1). Maugeri, A.; Barchitta, M.; Battiato, S.; Agodi, A. Modeling the Novel Coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) Outbreak in Sicily, Italy. Preprints 2020, 2020040267 (doi: 10.20944/preprints202004.0267.v1).

Abstract

Italy was the first country in Europe which imposed control measures of travel restrictions, quarantine and contact precautions to tackle the epidemic spread of the novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) in all its regions. While such efforts are still ongoing, uncertainties regarding SARS-CoV-2 transmissibility and ascertainment of cases make it difficult to evaluate the effectiveness of restrictions. Here, we employed a Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered-Dead (SEIRD) model to assess SARS-CoV-2 transmission dynamics, working on the number of reported patients in intensive care unit (ICU) and deaths in Sicily (Italy), from 24 February to 13 April. Overall, we obtained a good fit between estimated and reported data, with a small fraction of unreported SARS-CoV-2 cases (19.5%; 95%CI=0%-34.7%) before 10 March lockdown. Interestingly, we estimated that the first set of restrictions reduced transmission rate in the community by 42% (95%CI=38%-46%), and that more stringent measures adopted on 23 March succeeded to drastically curb the transmission rate by 84% (95%CI=80%-88%). Thus, our estimates delineated the characteristics of SARS-CoV2 epidemic before restrictions taking into account unreported data. Further modeling after the adoption of control measures, moreover, indicated that restrictions reduced SARS-CoV2 transmission considerably.

Subject Areas

novel coronavirus; COVID-19; epidemic model; epidemiology

Comments (0)

We encourage comments and feedback from a broad range of readers. See criteria for comments and our diversity statement.

Leave a public comment
Send a private comment to the author(s)
Views 0
Downloads 0
Comments 0
Metrics 0


×
Alerts
Notify me about updates to this article or when a peer-reviewed version is published.
We use cookies on our website to ensure you get the best experience.
Read more about our cookies here.