Climate change poses a significant threat to global food security, necessitating a thorough examination across multiple dimensions. Establishing appropriate food security evaluation indicators that align with the evolving concept of food security is imperative. This study enhances food security evaluation by refining a multi-dimensional framework and analyzing the impact of climate change across various regions from 2002 to 2021. By constructing an Food Security Index system composed of a three-tier indicator system and employing the entropy method for weighting, we assess the impacts of climate change on food security using a climate-economic model. Regression analysis reveals a negative linear relationship between mean temperatures and food security (p<0.01), while precipitation impacts food security non-linearly, particularly exhibiting inverse U-shaped patterns in major grain-producing and grain-consuming areas. Extreme high temperatures consistently reduce food security, whereas extreme precipitation displays a complex, statistically significant inverse U-shaped association. In regions where production and consumption are balanced, mean temperatures have a negative effect on food security, while precipitation exhibits a positive correlation, but excessive precipitation can have adverse effects. These findings highlight the intricate interplay between climate change, regional disparities, and food security in China, emphasizing the need to consider multi-dimensional factors and regional variations in addressing food security challenges. These insights are invaluable for policy-making and planning aimed at enhancing food security in China.

The objective was to estimate the monetary loss of potato producers up to the year 2100 as a result of temperature and precipitation impacts, taking into account the A2 and B2 scenarios of the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change). The Pooled Production Panel Model was used, whose database was prepared taking into account climatic variables (temperature and precipitation) and agricultural variables (production, harvested area, farm-gate price) for the period 1996 - 2020, which form the independent variables of the study. The estimations used 60 observations and a total of 38 estimations were run in the econometric software EViews8, of which Equation 05 of the Production Pooled Panel Model was chosen as the best. The model obtained used temperature and precipitation forecasts from Brazil's INPE (National Institute for Space Research), validated for the study area. The results indicate a concave function between potato production (t/ha), temperature and precipitation. Finally, based on the A2 climate scenario, which is the most pessimistic and using the period 2021 - 2100, a loss for potato producers of approximately 8'927,521.48 million soles was estimated.

This paper contributes to the debate on the impact of economic diversity and the resource curse on economic growth. We use dynamic panel data models on data on Canadian and US sub-national jurisdictions. We find evidence for a positive relationship between diversity and growth. Based on the Krugman Specialization Index, our analysis shows that the required threshold for not having the resource curse is 0.209. Above this threshold, the marginal contribution of natural resources to economic growth is lower for a more diversified regional economy than a less diversified one. We highlight the policy implications of these findings.

The feasibility of hydroelectric plants depends on a variety of factors: water resource regime, geo-graphical, geological and environmental context, available technology, construction cost and eco-nomic value of produced energy. Choices about the building or renewal of hydroelectric plants should be based on the forecast of the future trend of these factors at least during the project life of the system. Focusing on the economic value of the produced energy this paper examines its influ-ence on the feasibility of hydroelectric plants. Analysis, referred to Italian case, were based on three different phases: i) the economic sustainability of small-scale hydroelectric plants under a minimum price guaranteed to the hydroelectric operator; ii) the estimate of the incentives to reach the thresholds of "acceptability" and "bankability" of the investment; iii) the analysis of results ob-tained in the previous phases using a model of the evolution of the electricity price in the period 2014-2100.

Abstract: Currently, thermal power is the largest source of power in the world. Although the impacts of climate change on cooling water sufficiency in thermal power plants have been extensively assessed globally and regionally, their economic consequences have seldom been evaluated. In this study, the Asia-Pacific Integrated Model Computable General Equilibrium model (AIM/CGE) was used to evaluate the economic consequences of projected future cooling water insufficiency on a global basis, which was simulated using the H08 global hydrological model. This approach enabled us to investigate how the physical impacts of climate change on thermal power generation influence economic activities in regions and industrial sectors. To account for the uncertainty of climate change projections, five global climate models and two representative concentration pathways (RCPs 2.6 and 8.5) were used. The ensemble-mean results showed that the global gross domestic product (GDP) loss in 2070–2095 due to cooling water insufficiency in the thermal power sector was −0.21% (−0.12%) in RCP8.5 (RCP2.6). Among the five regions, the largest GDP loss of −0.57% (−0.27%) was observed in the Middle East and Africa. Medium-scale losses of −0.18% (−0.12%) and −0.14% (−0.12%) were found in OECD90 (the member countries of the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development as of 1990) and Eastern Europe and the Former Soviet Union, respectively. The smallest losses of −0.05% (−0.06%) and −0.09% (−0.08%) were found in Latin America and Asia, respectively. The economic impact of cooling water insufficiency was non-negligible and should be considered as one of the threats induced by climate change.

Assessing the economic supply of biomass in a geospatial context while accounting for risk from natural disasters was studied. Risk levels were estimated from a component of factors which included: population density, road density, federal ownership, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency ecoregions, and Presidential Disaster Declarations. The Presidential Disaster Declarations included risks due to: coastal storm, drought, fire, flood, freezing, hurricane, mud land slide, severe ices, severe storms, snow, tornado, and tropical storm. Presidential Disaster Declarations included summaries based on a short-term time period from 2000-2011, and on a long-term time period from 1964-2011. Risk categories were developed as a function of the number of disaster declarations, agricultural-to-forest land ratio, average road density, and average population density. A significant contribution of the research was the allocation of spatially explicit data using GIS technology at the 5-digit zip code tabulation area. The average area for 5-digit ZCTAs in the Eastern U.S. study region was approximately 169 kilometers². Long-term risk (1964-2011) from disaster declarations had a greater impact on the economic availability of biomass supply relative to short-term declarations (2000-2011). The greatest risk to biomass supply came from population density relative to the other risk factors studies. Of the 25,044 total ZCTAs, 12,256 ZCTAs were in locations that did not include population density ≥ 150/km², road density ≥ 14 km/km², federal ownership, and US Environmental Protection Agency Level III ecoregions. Of the remaining 12,256 ZCTAs, 26.8% were considered to be moderate-to-high risk based on short-term declarations (2000-2011) and 29.4% were considered to be moderate-to-high risk based on long-term declarations (1964-2011). Lower risk locations for procuring biomass supply for both short-term and long-term declarations, across all risk factors, were in southern Georgia, South Carolina, and Texas.

Estimating the economic risks of climate shocks and climate stressors on spatially heterogeneous cities over time remain highly challenging. The purpose of this paper is to present a practical methodology to assess the economic risks of climate change in developing cities to inform spatially sensitive municipal climate response strategies. Building on a capital-based framework (CBF), spatially disaggregated baseline and future scenario scores for economic wealth and its exposure to climate change are developed for six different classes of capital and across 77 major suburbs in Cape Town, South Africa. Capital-at-risk was calculated by combining relative exposure and capital scores across different scenarios and with population impacted plotted against the major suburbs and the city’s 8 main planning districts. The economic risk assessment presented here provides a generic approach to assist investment planning and the implementation of adaptation options through an enhanced understanding of relative levels of capital endowment vis-à-vis relative levels of exposure to climate-related hazards over time. An informed climate response strategy in spatially heterogeneous cities need to include spatially sensitive estimates on capital-at-risk and populations disproportionally impacted by climate exposure over time. The economic risk assessment approach presented here helps in advancing to such a goal.

For water-stressed regions like Iran improving the effectiveness and productivity of agricultural water-use is of utmost importance due to climate change and unsustainable demands. Therefore, a hydro-economic model has been developed here for the Zarrine River Basin with the central concept of that demands are value-sensitive functions, where quantities of water-uses at different locations and times have a changeable economic benefits. To do this, the potential crop yields and the surface and groundwater resources, especially Boukan Dam inflow are simulated using the hydrologic model, SWAT, based on predicted climatic scenarios i.e. quantile mapping-downscaled projections. Then, to allocate the agricultural water based on the agro- economic crop water productivity (AEWP) of crops, a basin-wide water management tool, MODSIM, is customized. Next, a simulation- optimization model has been developed using a coupled CSPSO-MODSIM, to optimize the total AEWP, considering climatic impact and crop pattern scenarios, for 2020-2038, 2050-2068 and 2080-2098 periods. Finally, the optimum crop pattern and crop water irrigation depths are presented for different RCPs and periods. The results indicated that this approach will improve considerably the AEWPs and decrease the agricultural water-use up to 40%. Thus, this integrated model is able to support water authorities and other stakeholder in a water-scarce basin, as is the study area.

Organizational climate is the ascribed psychological meanings and significance associated with the procedures, policies and practices that are recognized and rewarded in the workplace, and hence mediates the effects of environmental stimuli on individuals’ response. Safety climate is a specific organizational climate, i.e., organizational climate for safety. Previous research claimed that organizational climate provides foundation for safety climate, but without elaboration on the foundational mechanisms. This paper attempts to fill up this knowledge gap. As organizational climate is a multi-dimensional phenomenon, this paper chooses two dimensions, i.e., perceived organizational support (POS) and participative decision-making (PaDM), for illustrative purposes. Drawing on an interactive approach to forming climate perceptions, this paper introduces two interactive constructs, i.e., leader-member exchange (LMX) and team member exchange (TMX), and establishes a multiple mediation model depicting the foundational effect of organizational climate on safety climate. A random sample of Hong Kong based construction personnel is used to validate the model. The results show that both POS and PaDM are positively associated with perceived safety climate, both LMX and TMX fully mediate the effect of PaDM on safety climate, and only LMX partially mediates the effect of POS on safety climate. This study sheds light on the foundational effects of organizational climate on safety climate. POS can improve the quality of reciprocal exchange about safety matters between construction personnel and their supervisors, and hence raise construction personnel’s awareness of the priority of safety. PaDM can improve the quality of reciprocal exchange about safety matters vertically and horizontally, and hence have construction personnel aware the importance of safety. In practice, this paper suggests that project managers timely recognize and reward construction personnel’s contribution, genuinely cares about their well-being, and take their suggestions seriously in making decisions. In this way, the quality of both vertical and horizontal exchange about safety matters improves, and a sound and positive safety climate ensues.

Economic risks for livestock production are caused by volatile commodities and market conditions, but also by environmental drivers like increasing uncertainties due to weather anomalies and global warming. These risks impact the gross margin of farmers and can stimulated investment decisions. For confined pig and poultry production, farmers can reduce the environmental impact by implementing specific adaptation measures to reduce heat stress. A simulation model driven by meteorological data was used to calculate heat stress impact as a projection for 2030. For a business-as-usual livestock building, the indoor climate for several adaptation measures was calculated. The weather-related value-at risk quantified the economic risks caused by global warming and the stochastic component of the weather. The results show that only energy-saving adaptation measures to reduce the inlet air temperature are appropriate to reduce the economic risk to the level of the year 1980. The efficiency of other adaptation measures to reduce heat stress is distinctly lower. The results in this study can support the decision making of farmers concerning adaptation management and investments. It can inform agricultural policy design as well as technological development.

Under the “Korean emission trading system in the forestry sector (KETSF)” initiative, the South Korean government has developed several greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reduction programs that include forestry activities as the cornerstones of the initiative. Forest management is deemed to be a major strategy to implement KETSF; this has been confirmed by most participants in the program, who have shown their preference for forest management projects as the most effective and encouraging strategy to participate in the KETSF program. For a successful implementation of KETSF projects is essential to explore methods that optimize the positive impacts of such strategies, thereby maximizing the economic returns and carbon stocks that result from the implementation of forest management activities. Thus, this study investigated several value-added KETSF projects in South Korea, which included simulated scenarios under two main forest management strategies: one based on an extension of the rotation age, and a second one based on reforestation with new species. Five forest management scenarios were examined and evaluated in their ability to maximize carbon stocks and economic returns. Based on the results, Scenarios 2 and 4 were identified as the best KETSF projects in terms of carbon stock increments. Additionally, the results indicated that projects including reforestation with new species added more economic value than projects that considered an extension of the rotation age. The study also revealed that KETSF projects generated revenue in both scenarios, by either extending the rotation age or by implementing reforestation with new species.

The severity of the ongoing COVID-19 outbreak demand from countries to adopt extreme measurements of social isolation to stop the spread and flatten the curve of contamination. Although social isolation measures may have negative impacts on economy, historically it has been showed to be more effective in saving lives and less damaging to economy than not adopting these measurements during a viral pandemic. In Brazil, despite the positioning of the president against social isolation due to the consequent economic recession, the rapid spread of the virus has worried the governors of the Brazilian states, which are thus managing stringent social isolation measurements to avoid the advance of the virus. Since one of the main strategies to guarantee progress and economic growth in Brazil has been the exploitation of natural resources from the Amazonia biome, here we discuss the importance of this biome to Brazilian economy during the post-pandemic recession and highlights potential strategies to burst the economy without promoting Amazonia destruction. We show that, together with the REDD+ and the Amazon Fund, the Forest bonds represents good strategies to burst Brazilian economy in a sustainable way, showing that it is possible to improve the commodities without increasing Amazonia deforestation or the greenhouse gases emissions. Amazonia is a biome of global importance for the avoidance of another global crisis, which will occur if we reach the climatic tipping point of 1.5°C. Thus, governmental actions should go towards its preservation, not exploitation and depletion. The commitment of the government with environmental conservation is paramount so that these economic strategies have positive results, especially in a post-pandemic scenario, where the economy will be extremely weakened. The COVID-19 brings us a lesson regarding how our attitudes can impact the world, and what we can expect from a global crisis. Perhaps we can apply these lessons and focus on change our economy towards a sustainable direction to avoid another global crisis in the years to come.

Globally, the intensity and irregularity of weather and climate extremes are increasing due to climate change. In Ethiopia, the occurrence of extreme events has been increasing, reporting severe impacts on environment which led to losses of lives and livelihood of societies. In this study, Heat Wave Magnitude Index daily (HWMId) was used to analysis heat wave magnitude in the Middle Awash Basin of Ethiopia. Gauge data obtained from Ethiopian Meteorological Institution (EMI) for 1981-2022 period and the future projection was taken from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) under two socioeconomic pathways (SSP 2 and SSP 5) scenarios. The findings clearly showed that the area aggregated annual temperature anomaly increasing each year, 2015 was one of the warmest year on record with an anomaly of +1.8 °C. Severe to extreme heat wave recorded particularly during the last 10 years. For the future projection, under SSP 2-4.5 forcing scenario, the annual average air temperature projected to be warmer, which increasing 1.7 ℃ to 1.8 ℃ during mid-century and 2.3 ℃ to 2.4 ℃ end of century. Meanwhile, for SSP 5-8.5 forcing, the projection indicated an increment of 2.2 ℃ to 2.5 ℃ under mid-century and 4.4 ℃ to 4.8 ℃ end of century. Concerning the severity of heat wave, extreme to very extreme heat wave projected under SSP 2-4.5 forcing scenario and supper extreme heat wave projected under SSP 5-8.5 forcing scenario, respectively. The increase in extreme events may have a negative impact on health, water availability and food security. Therefore, the result of this study are essential for making wise decisions and for developing suitable strategies for climate change adaptation and mitigation that could minimize the risk of unusually extreme weather events.

In this paper we introduce an ODE system to model the interaction between nature resources and human exploitation in a rich consumeristic society. In this model the rate of change of population depends on wealth per capita, and the rate of consumption has a quadratic growth with respect to population and wealth. As in our previous work \cite{BaCra_1}, we distinguish between renewable and non renewable resources, and we introduce a replenishment term for non renewable resources. We first get some information on the asymptotic behaviour of wealth and population, then we compute all the equilibria of the system and we study their stability when the parameter of exploitation of resources is small. Some numerical simulations confirm the theoretical results, and give suggestions for future research.

As a part of the European Green Deal, the Corporate Sustainable Reporting Directive will apply to over 50,000 companies in Europe, meant to advance the quality of sustainability reporting in the EU, and reduce global emissions and emission distribution inequality. Part of the requirements centre around organisational emission quantification, which will bring much attention to the methodological aspects and resulting decision support capability, which calls for synthesis and argues for clarity. Currently, quantifying the emissions embedded in global transactions mostly focus on direct value-chain attributes, and do not consider unintended consequences beyond the scope of assessment. To achieve genuine reductions, estimated emissions must be considered from a systems perspective to accurately reflect their true impact. While emission inventories serve several purposes, incorrect application limits their potential. The CSRD aligns itself with the GHG Protocol, which does not explicitly facilitate this distinction, although new Land Sector and Removals Guidance draft does, in part. With first CSRD reports expected in 2025, and the GHG protocol entering a revisions period, it presents an opportunity to marry systems thinking with carbon literacy, thereby equipping the expected surge of activity with the sufficient tools for an accelerated transition.

Following the development and dissemination of new climate-smart agricultural technologies to farmers globally, there has been an increase in the number of socio-economic studies on the adoption of climate-smart integrated pests’ management (CS-IPM) technologies over the years. In this study, we review empirical evidence on adoption determinants of CS-IPM technologies and identify possible science-policy interfaces. Generally, our review shows that socioeconomic and institutional factors are influential in shaping CS-IPM adoption decisions of farmers. More specifically, income was found to positively influence the adoption of CS-IPM technologies while land size owned influences CS-IPM adoption negatively. Registered land tenure (registered secure rights) positively influences CS-IPM technologies’ adoption, implying that efficient land markets that enable competitive and fair distribution and access to land, more so by the vulnerable but efficient smallholder producers do indeed increase the adoption of CS-IPMs technologies. Social capital, achieved via farmers’ organizations is also central in fostering CS-IPM technologies’ adoption, just as markets reforms that minimize market failures regarding access to credit, labor, and agricultural information, which could indirectly hinder farmers’ use of CS-IPM practices. Functional extension systems that improve farmers’ awareness of CS-IPM do also improve CS-IPM technologies’ adoption. However, the adoption of CS-IPM technologies in Ghana and Benin is slow-paced because of factors like lack of access to farm inputs that facilitate uptake of these technologies, lack of credit facilities, and limited extension services among others. Interestingly, our review confirms that CS-IPM technologies do indeed reduce and minimize the intensity of pesticide usage and foster ecosystem (environmental and human) health. Therefore, this review unearths strategic determinants of CS-IPM adoption and makes fundamental guidance around climate-smart innovations transfer and environmental policies that should be prioritized to curb environmental pollution and ensure agricultural ecosystems’ sustainability.

Introduction. Environmental Health in a Global World at New York University was re-designed as a class participatory effort, challenging undergraduate students to understand environmental hazards and the resultant adverse health outcomes by embracing the inherent complexity of environmental risks and proposing solutions. Methods. Following introductory lectures, students are placed into teams and assigned a specific perspective, or avatar, which includes learning to see the challenge from the perspective of a technical expert such as a biologist, an engineer, or an anthropologist. The teams then design specific systems maps to visualize the complex interactions that lead to adverse health outcomes after a given environmental exposure. The maps highlight potential leverage points, where relatively minor interventions can provide a disproportionate benefit in health outcomes. The teams then explore potential interventions and identify the potential unintended consequences of those actions, develop and advocate for innovative new strategies to mitigate risk and improve outcomes. Results and Discussion. Over the past 5 years we have taught this methodology to over 680 students with strong, student-oriented results. The teams created and presented more than 100 strategies, addressing a diverse set of environmental challenges that include water contamination, gun violence, air pollution, environmental justice, health security, and climate change. Developing the strategies helped the students understand environmental threats in a more holistic way, provided them with some agency in finding solutions, and offered an opportunity for them to improve their presentation skills. The responses in course evaluations have been enthusiastic, with many students reporting a deep impact on their college experience.

(1) Background: Most of the existing studies focus on the evaluation of technology finance; the relationship between technology finance and technology innovation. But there are few studies on the development of technology finance and the quality of economic development in our country; (2) Methods: Based on the panel data of 30 provinces in China, this paper constructs an index system to measure the development of technology finance through the improved entropy method, and tests the spatial correlation of the development of technology finance in China by Moran'I index. According to the test results, this paper constructs a spatial econometric model to empirically analyze the promoting effect of scientific, technological and financial development on high-quality economic development, and analyzes its promoting effect in different regions and different time periods; (3) Results: The results show that the quality of China's economic growth is spatially dependent, and the development of science, technology and finance can significantly promote the quality economic development in China. And the promotion coefficient of the central region is the largest, as well as the coefficient of the eastern region is the smallest. The promotion coefficient was small and not significant before 2015, and was significantly positive after 2015; (4) Conclusions: this paper puts forward the corresponding policy recommendations according to the research results.

In the last decades farm animals kept in confined and mechanically ventilated livestock buildings are increasingly confronted with heat stress (HS) due to global warming. These adverse conditions cause a depression of animal health and welfare and a reduction of the performance up to an increase of the mortality. To facilitate sound management decisions, livestock farmers need relevant arguments, which quantify the expected economic risk and the corresponding uncertainty. The economic risk was determined for the pig fattening sector based on the probability of HS and the calculated decrease in the gross margin. The model calculation for confined livestock buildings showed, that HS indices calculated by easily available meteorological parameters can be used for assessment quantification of indoor HS, which is so far difficult to determine. These weather-related HS indices can be applied not only for an economic risk assessment but also for a weather-index based insurance for livestock farms. Based on the temporal trend between 1981 and 2017, a simple model was derived to assess the likelihood of HS for 2020 and 2030. Due to global warming, the return period for a 90-percentile HS index is reduced from 10 years in 2020 to 3-4 years in 2030. The economic impact of HS on livestock farms was calculated by the relationship between an HS index based on the temperature-humidity index (THI) and the reduction of the gross margin. From the likelihood of the HS and this economic impact function, the probability of the economic risk could be determined. The reduction of the gross margin for a 10 year return period was determined for 1980 with 0.27 € per year and animal place and increased by the 20-fold to 5.13 € per year and animal place in 2030.

The failure to acknowledge and account for environmental externalities or spillovers in climate change adaptation policy, advocacy and programming spaces exercabates the risk of ecological degradation, more so, degradation of land. In particular use of unsuitable water sources for irrigation may increase salinisation risks. However, little if any policy assessments and research effort has been directed at investigating how farmer perceptions mediate spillovers from the ubiquitous irrigation adaptation strategy. In this study cognitive failure and/or bias construct is examined and proposed as an analytical lens in research, policy and learning and the convergence of disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation discourses. The findings from small-scale farmers, Machakos and Kakamega counties, Kenya, suggest multifaceted biases and failures about the existence and importance of externalities in adaptation planning discourses. Among other dimensions, cognitive failure which encompasses fragmented approaches among institutions for use and management of resources, inadequate policy and information support, as well as, poor integration of actors in adaptation planning accounts for adaptation failure. The failures in such Human-Environment system interactions have the potential to exercabate existing vulnerability of farmer production systems in the long run. The findings further suggest that in absence of risk message information dissemination, education level, farming experience and information accumulation, as integral elements to human capital, do not seem to have significant effect on behaviour about mitigation of environmental spillovers. Implicitly, reversing the inherent adaptation failures calls for system approaches that enhance coordinated adaptation planning, prioritises proactive mitigation of slow onset disaster risks and broadens decision support systems, such as, risk information dissemination integration into the existing adaptation policy discourses and practice.

This study assessed farmers’ perception of climate change, estimated the determinants of, and evaluated the relationship among adaptation practices using the multivariate probit model. A survey in 300 agricultural households was carried out covering 10 sample districts considering five agro-ecological zones and a vulnerability index. Four adaptation choices (change in planting date, crop variety, crop type and investment in irrigation) were deemed as outcome variables and socioeconomic, demographic, institutional, farm-level and perceptions variables were deployed as explanatory variables. Their marginal effects were determined for three climatic variables—temperature, precipitation and drought. Age, gender and education of head of household, credit access, farm area, rain-fed farming and tenure, are found to be more influential compared to other factors. All four adaptation-options are found to be complimentary to each other. Importantly, the intensity of impact of dependent variables in different models, and for available adaptation-options, are found to be unequal. Therefore, policy options and support facilities should be devised according to climatic variables and adaptation options to achieve superior results.

The purpose of this paper is to explore the extent to which traditional economic policies can be oriented by sound practices. It is becoming widely accepted that sustainable economic growth (and not only economic growth) is the final target of economic policies; but most economic policies are applied just looking to the short-run without taking in account the long-run perspective. Our aim will be to show how a sustainable economic policy-making would be possible, making compatible the stabilization of the economy in the short-run with a sustainable economic growth in the long-run. We confront the design of economic policies with the 17 goals of the 2030 Agenda. We argue that all sustainable development goals can be attained by the design and implementation of sustainable economic policies. Finally, to illustrate this point we will conduct a simulation exercise to show under which combinations of demand policies technological shocks would promote a path of sustainable growth. Our results will provide a reference framework for a sustainable economic policy-making.

The way humans use natural resources and especially freshwater, reflects their relationship with nature. It also influences the conceptual Water Resources Management (WRM) model. A historical review shows that the interplay between Humans and Nature is diachronically in constant change between two opposites: conflict and cooperation. Lessons from the past 20.000 years indicate that the WRM model is a function of two main parameters: (1) socio-economics, and (2) climate conditions. Three different Eras of the Humans-Nature relationship have been distinguished: (1) Naturalistic: Nature dominating Humans during the Last Glacial Period (100-10) kyr BC, (2) Dualistic: Nature-Humans cooperation and competition from 10 kyr BC to 1800 AD, and (3) Anthropocentric: Humans dominating Nature from 1800 AD to now. Since 2000, the Integrated WRM (IWRM) model is promoted as state-of-the-art and remains anthropocentric producing huge externalities. Its assessment during the last 20 years has given mixed results and needs to be reformulated. The new model we suggest is based on the dialectical tool for conflict resolution. It unifies Humans and Nature and enhances the social dimension of WRM. After identifying conflicts between stakeholders and the natural laws (eristic part), opposite objectives are unified to harmonize Humans with Nature (dialectical resolution). A case study of flood mitigation illustrates the eristic-dialectical methodology.

The present paper investigates the determinants of the country’s modernisation through the lens of its citizens. A combination of the ‘hard’ determinants of country’s modernisation (effectiveness of digitisation, infrastructure, environment and interoperability of natural resources; behaviour in line with environmental trends of the EU) and ‘soft’ (interest in opportunities and benefits of renewable energy) was investigated. It was revealed that even for some developed countries, the ‘hard’ determinants have a greater impact on country’s modernisation compared to the ‘soft’ ones. A representative cross-sectional survey of 1015 respondents and a factor coupled with a network analysis served as the main research instruments. Lithuania served as a geographic setting for the research.

Coastal areas are highly vulnerable to climate change hazards (e.g., sea-level rise, flooding, coastal erosion), which can lead to significant impacts at the ecosystem and societal level. Interest in Ecosystem-based Adaptation (EbA) is gaining importance due to its potential multiple benefits, including social and environmental aspects, when compared to more traditional approaches such as hard engineering interventions. When assessing EbA strategies, further understanding of the nature-society functions, processes, values, and benefits is needed to increase its application. This study contributes to a better knowledge of EbA by developing a systematic literature review of studies performing socio-economic assessments of climate change adaptation in coastal areas. The analysis of 54 publications revealed that most of the studies assessed adaptation solutions through cost-benefit analysis, followed by multi-criteria analysis, and other techniques. Hybrid adaptation strategies based on different combinations of hard, soft and EbA interventions were considered as potential optimal solutions in a significant part of the assessments. This study suggests the potential co-benefits of EbA in the form of ecosystem services, livelihood diversification or biodiversity conservation, but also stresses the need for further research on this topic, as well as on evaluating how EbA perform in the long-term under climate changing conditions scenarios.

Low carbon cities are increasingly forming a distinct strand of sustainability literature. Models have been developed to measure the performance of low carbon cities. The purpose of this paper is to formulate a strategy-based model to evaluate current performance and predict future conditions of low carbon cities. It examines the dynamic interrelationships between key performance indicators (KPIs), induces changes to city plan targets and then instantly predicts the outcome of these changes. Designed generic and flexible, the proposed model shows how low carbon targets could be used to guide the transformation of low carbon cities under four strategies: (1) passive intervention, (2) problem solving, (3) trend modifying and (4) opportunity seeking. Further, the model has been applied to 17 cities and then tested on 5 cities: London, New York, Barcelona, Dubai and Istanbul. The paper concludes with policy implications to realign city plans and support low carbon innovation.

Several sun models suggest the radioactive balance where the concentration of greenhouse gases and the albedo effect are related to the Earth's surface temperature. There is a considerable increment of greenhouse gases due to anthropogenic activities. Climate change correlates with this alteration in the atmosphere and an increase in surface temperature. Efficient forecasting of climate change and its impacts of 1.5°C global warming above pre-industrial levels could be helpful to respond to the threat of c.c. and develop sustainably. Many studies have predicted the temperature change in the coming years. The global community has to create a model that can realize good predictions to ensure the best way to deal with the warming. Thus, we propose a finite-time thermodynamic (FTT) approach in the present work. The FTT can solve problems such as the faint young sun paradox. In addition, we use different machine learning models to evaluate our method and compare the experimental prediction and results.

Climate justice as a commons is conceived as the intertemporal climate equity and equal- ity exchange amongst generations. Sustainability, intended as the interplay amongst the economy, the society, the environment, and the governance, is essential to forge the climate justice theoretical framework. On this base, the study attempts to model intertemporal choice amongst generations in these four domains, making use of an over- lapping generations (OLG) model. The proxies detected are GDP growth (economy), environmental quality (environment), and labor growth, and environmental investment (society) as assumptions. The governance dimension is captured by the di¤erence in wealth between young and old generations. The work aims at replying to the follow- ing research question: Which are the conditions for sustainable development such that climate justice holds? The intra-intergenerational exchange is de…ned in two periods, while the individual provides their preferred economic and environmental choice mix as consumption-saving. This study shows that sustainable growth is achievable only with increased young e¤ort and less leisure and consumption.

Recent years' global shocks (e.g., the 2008 financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic) and environmental shocks - such as natural disasters - have heightened the vulnerability of developing countries to future shocks, and can compromise their development prospects. International institutions and researchers have advocated that the strengthening of productive capacities in these countries would help them enhance the resilience of their economies to shocks, and promote sustainable development. The present paper has examined the effect of productive capacities on economic growth and economic growth volatility in developing countries, in particular when they face a high level of structural economic vulnerability. The analysis covers 117 developing countries over the period 2000-2018. It shows that productive capacities do not only promote economic growth, but also reduce economic growth volatility. On the other hand, structural economic vulnerability reduces economic growth, in particular when it exceeds a certain level, and induces greater volatility of economic growth. Interestingly, the findings suggest that productive capacities promote economic growth and reduce economic growth volatility in countries that face a high degree of structural economic vulnerability. These findings support the recommendation by international institutions and researchers that if they were to enhance the resilience of their economies to shocks, and promote sustainable economic growth, developing countries (in particular the poorest ones) should strengthen their productive capacities.

In the last decades droughts, deforestation and wildfires have become recurring phenomena that have affected both human activities and natural ecosystems in Amazonia. The time an ecosystem requires to recover from carbon losses is a crucial metric to evaluate disturbance impacts on forests. However, the factors influencing and controlling the recovery time and its spatiotemporal patterns at the regional scale are still poorly understood. In this study, we combined forest growth model, remote sensing and field plots, to map Amazonia-wide (300-ha resolution) impact and recovery time of aboveground biomass (AGB) after drought, fire and a combination of logging and fire. Our simulated results indicate that AGB decreases by 4%, 19% and 46% in forests disturbed by drought, fire and logging + fire, respectively, with an average AGB recovery time of 27 years for drought, 44 years for burned and 63 years for logged + burned areas and with maximum values reaching 184 years in areas of high fire intensity. Our findings provide two major insights in the spatial and temporal patterns of drought and wildfire in the Amazon: 1) the recovery time of the forests takes longer in the southeastern part of the basin, and, 2) as droughts and wildfires become more frequent – since the intervals between the disturbances is getting shorter than forest regeneration – potentially causing a long-lasting damage in these fragile ecosystems and a permanent degradation.

We use the third version of the Canadian Local Climate Model as a diagnostic tool to study the climatology of observed CG lightning activity at Maniwaki (latitude: 46,23°N; Longitude: 75,58°W). We examine the dependence between the hourly lightning activity and the related atmospheric variables during the warm season of sixteen years (between 1984 and 2004). The goal of this research is: a) to evaluate the atmospheric static state evolution and its moisture contents for conditions having generated lightning occurrence, b) to develop a CG lightning parameterization, and c) to verify this CG lightning parameterization on other Canadian areas. The freezing level altitude and the precipitable water content are used to estimate the static air instability and its moisture content respectively. These two parameters are served to develop the CG lightning parameterization. A comparison between the observations and simulations CG lightning occurrence and frequency at Maniwaki showed a mean absolute error rate of 27% and 55% respectively. We apply this parameterization at four Canadian regions, distributed from west to east. The simulated CG lightning results are comparable to observed CG lightning at Maniwaki and tested regions. The application of the CG lightning parameterization to the daily data enabled us to find the monthly results. This application represents a preliminary stage for validation this parameterization in regional numerical models in Canada during the historic period.

Several chemistry-climate models (CCM) underestimate the total column ozone (TCO) over the polar region in the Southern Hemisphere during wintertime. To evaluate potential causes of the problem, we exploit CCM SOCOLv3 to study the TCO over Antarctica sensitivity to the: (1) photo-dissociation rates of ozone for large solar zenith angles; (2) rates of the stratospheric heterogeneous reactions, and (3) intensity of the meridional flux into the polar regions due to sub-grid scale mixing processes in the model. Comparisons of the model results with the satellite-based IASI (Infrared Atmospheric Sounder Interferometer) sensor measurements showed that the most important processes for the improvement of the polar ozone simulation results are photolysis and horizontal mixing. The reasonable tuning of these factors has allowed us to improve the model representation of the ozone annual cycle over the southern polar region. The proposed increase of the horizontal mixing can be recommended for the CCMs with relatively low horizontal resolution.

In this paper, Rice water requirement and irrigation water requirement in Amol agro meteorological Station in 2016-2045 are forecasted based on the projected meteorological data of Hadcm3 under A2 scenario. Rice water requirements are estimated by using crop coefficient approach. Reference evapotranspiration are calculated by FAO Penman-Monteith method. Moreover, the irrigation water requirements are simulated by calibrated CROPWAT model using the meteorological parameters. The results show that both crop water requirement and irrigation water requirement present downward trend in the future. In 2016-2045, the rice water requirement and irrigation water requirement decrease by more than 9.9% under A2 scenario, respectively. Furthermore, the precipitation rise may be the main reason for the decrease in crop water requirement, while significant decrease of irrigation water requirement should be attributed to combined action of rising precipitation and a slight increase in temperature.

Shelter-in-place policies and the closure of non-essential workplaces intended to disrupt transmission of the SARS-COV-2 virus are effective approaches to combating COVID-19. They have, however, caused record levels of unemployment in the United States, raising questions of whether mitigation is more societally damaging than the disease. Here we use a coupled epidemiological-economic model to estimate the impact on employment of an unmitigated, business-as-usual approach to the pandemic. We compared unemployment between March-August 2020 in ten Californian socio-economic systems (SESs) to unemployment forecast by a model of industrial sector inter-dependencies subjected to unmitigated outbreaks of COVID-19. We found that economic losses are unavoidable because disease-driven losses propagate economically through SESs, amplifying losses to the disease. While model forecasts are generally lower than actual unemployment, jobs savings would come at the cost of greatly increased worker mortality. The costs would also be disproportionately greater among smaller and inland SESs.

In recent years, the Canadian dairy sector has faced escalating challenges due to its significant contribution to greenhouse gas emissions, particularly methane. This paper critically examines a spectrum of innovative techniques aimed at mitigating methane emissions within this sector, scrutinizing their cost-effectiveness, efficiency, compatibility with animal welfare standards, and adherence to both existing and prospective Canadian environmental legislations. The discourse commences with an exhaustive overview of contemporary methane reduction methodologies pertinent to dairy farming, followed by a rigorous analysis of their economic feasibility. This includes a detailed cost-benefit analysis, juxtaposed with the efficiency and technological advancements these techniques embody. A pivotal aspect of this examination is the alignment of animal welfare with emission reduction objectives, ensuring that strategies employed do not compromise the health and well-being of dairy cattle. Furthermore, the paper delves into the legislative landscape of Canada, evaluating the congruence of these techniques with current environmental laws and anticipating future regulatory shifts. Performance indicators for emission reduction are critically assessed, establishing benchmarks tailored to the Canadian context. This is complemented by an exploration of the market potential of these innovations, including factors influencing their adoption and scalability in the market. The analysis culminates with a synthesis of case studies and best practices within Canada, offering insights into successful implementations and drawing lessons for future endeavors. This comprehensive approach serves not only to address the immediate environmental and health impacts associated with dairy farming emissions but also contributes significantly to the overarching goal of sustainable development in the agricultural sector.

To remain relevant in the green transition, companies are beginning to voluntarily account for the exchange of emissions in their supply chain transactions and using the resulting greenhouse gas inventories for climate resilient decision support. Market advantages of sustainability and transparency see a shift from internal decision support tools to external communication tools which potentially expose companies to the risk of uncovering greenwashing if claims are not supported by transparent data, sound modelling, and a climate just emissions inventory, which considers external impacts connected to the production system. The different methods and standards in place for such greenhouse gas inventories, despite all referring to the ISO life cycle analysis standards and guidelines, present mixed signals and leave room for different interpretations, that may ultimately lead to cascading greenwashing, misleading results, and false successes. The new GHG Protocol Land Sector and Removals Guidance draft addresses this in part. With the GHG Protocol moving into revision periods, we identify gaps that present barriers to companies, or allow for interpretations that goes against the intentions of reporting GHG emissions related to an activity or organisation. The literature agrees that not rectifying these subtle-ties present counterproductive decision support for the green transition’s overall goal: to reduce global emissions.

The development of a Digital Track Model (DTM) within Kazakhstan's railway system presents an innovative approach to enhancing efficiency and safety across the network. This paper investigates the economic viability of DTM implementation, offering a comprehensive mathematical model that highlights potential reductions in maintenance costs and improvements in system accuracy and durability. The findings advocate for DTM's potential to significantly elevate railway operations, suggesting a pivotal step towards modernizing Kazakhstan's transit infrastructure.

In-cloud ice mass accretion on wind turbines is a common challenge faced by energy companies operating in cold climates. On-shore wind farms in Scandinavia are often located in regions near patches of forest, the heterogeneity length scales of which are often less than the resolution of many numerical weather prediction (NWP) models. The representation of these forests--including the cloud water response to surface roughness and albedo effects related to them--must therefore be parameterized in NWP models used as meteorological input in ice prediction systems, resulting in an uncertainty that is poorly understood and to present date not quantified. The sensitivity of ice accretion forecasts to the subgrid representation of forests is examined in this study. A single column version of the HARMONIE-AROME 3D NWP model is used to determine the sensitivity of the forecast of ice accretion on wind turbines to the subgrid forest fraction. Single column simulations of a variety of icing cases at a location in northern Sweden were examined in order to investigate the impact of vegetation cover on ice accretion in varying levels of solar insulation and wind magnitudes. In mid-winter cases, the wind speed response to surface roughness was the primary driver of the vegetation effect on ice accretion. In early season cases, the cloud water response to surface albedo effects plays a secondary role in the impact of in-cloud ice accretion, with the wind response to surface roughness remaining the primary driver for the surface vegetation impact on icing. Two different surface boundary layer (SBL) forest canopy subgrid parameterizations were tested in this study that feature different methods for calculating near-surface profiles of wind, temperature, and moisture, with the ice mass accretion again following the wind response to surface vegetation between both of these schemes.

Based on panel data of 31 provincial-level administrative units (excluding Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan) in China from 2015 to 2019, using fixed effect model and mediation effect model, this paper makes an empirical analysis on the interaction among digital economy, industrial structure upgrade and high-quality economic development. The results show that, from the overall effect, the digital economy can significantly promote the high-quality development of the economy, and there are regular regional differences, and the relationship between the promotion intensity and the development level of the digital economy is proportional. From the mediation effect, in the relationship between digital economy and high-quality economic development, the upgrade of industrial structure has played a significant part of the mediation effect, the proportion of mediation effect is 25.17% . In addition, the mediation effect of industrial structure upgrade has obvious regional difference, the western area is the strongest, the eastern area is the second, the central area is the weakest. Based on the above research,the concrete policy suggestions are given to promote the development of digital economy and upgrade the level of industrial structure to promote the high-quality development of economy.

The subject of this paper is to analyse the Math Principia of Economic 3D Black Holes in Roegenian economics. This idea is totally new in the related literature, excepting our papers. In details, we study two special problems: (i) math origin of economic 3D black holes, (ii) entropy and internal political stability depending on national income and the total investment, for economic RN 3D black hole. To solve these problems, it was necessary to jump from macroeconomic side to microeconomic side (a substantial approach so different), to complete the thermodynamics-economics dictionary with new entities, to introduce the flow between two macroeconomic systems, to study the Schwarzschild type metric properties on an economic 4D system, together with Rindler coordinates, Einstein 4D PDEs, and economic RN 3D black hole. In addition, we introduce some economic Ricci type flows or waves, for further research.

Large-scale hydrological modeling in China is challenging given the sparse meteorological stations and large uncertainties associated with atmospheric forcing data.Here we introduce the development and use of the China Meteorological Assimilation Driving Datasets for the SWAT model (CMADS) in the Heihe River Basin(HRB) for improving hydrologic modeling, by leveraging the datasets from the China Meteorological Administration Land Data Assimilation System (CLDAS)(including climate data from nearly 40000 area encryption stations, 2700 national automatic weather stations, FengYun (FY) 2 satellite and radar stations). CMADS uses the Space Time Multiscale Analysis System (STMAS) to fuse data based on ECWMF ambient field and ensure data accuracy. In addition, compared with CLDAS, CMADS includes relative humidity and climate data of varied resolutions to drive hydrological models such as the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model. Here, we compared climate data from CMADS, Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) and traditional weather station (TWS) climate forcing data and evaluatedtheir applicability for driving large scale hydrologic modeling with SWAT. In general, CMADS has higher accuracy than CFRS when evaluated against observations at TWS; CMADS also provides spatially continuous climate field to drive distributed hydrologic models, which is an important advantage over TWS climate data, particular in regions with sparse weather stations. Therefore, SWAT model simulations driven with CMADS and TWS achieved similar performances in terms of monthly and daily stream flow simulations, and both of them outperformed CFRS. For example, for the three hydrological stations (Ying Luoxia, Qilian Mountain, and ZhaMasheke) in the HRB at the monthly and daily Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency ranges of 0.75-0.95 and 0.58-0.78, respectively, which are much higher than corresponding efficiency statistics achieved with CFSR (monthly: 0.32-0.49 and daily: 0.26 – 0.45). The CMADS dataset is available free of charge and is expected to a valuable addition to the existing climate reanalysis datasets for deriving distributed hydrologic modeling in China and other countries in East Asia.

Open Inertia Modelling (OpInMod) is a modelling framework designed to create unit commitment and economic inertia dispatch optimisation problems. Present energy system modelling generators do not consider power system inertia in unit commitment and economic dispatch modelling to assess future energy system pathways. However, maintaining sufficient power system inertia in power systems is the foundation for power frequency controllability. The work at hand describes the functionality and approaches of open source tool OpInMod. The softwares universal design approach increases reuse potential. OpInMod is distributed with a set of examples to test and understand OpInMod

The following paper describes an economical, multiple model predictive control (EMMPC) for an air conditioning system of a confectionery manufacturer in Germany. The application consists of a packaging hall for chocolate bars, in which a new local conveyor belt air conditioning system is used and thus the temperature and humidity limits in the hall can be significantly extended. The EMMPC calculates the optimum energy or cost humidity and temperature set points in the hall. For this purpose, time-discrete state space models and an economic objective function with which it is possible to react to flexible electricity prices in a cost-optimised manner are created. A possible future electricity price model for Germany with a flexible EEG levy was used as a flexible electricity price. The flexibility potential is determined by variable temperature and humidity limits in the hall, which are oriented towards the comfort field for easily working persons, and the building mass. The building mass of the created room model is used as a thermal energy store. Considering electricity price and weather forecasts as well as internal, production plan-dependent load forecasts, the model predictive controller directly controls the heating and cooling register and the humidifier of the air conditioning system.

The construction industry is one of the most fatal industries, so it is important to pay more attention to safety solutions. Even though work-related accidents are known as major waste in construction projects, little attention has been paid so far to incorporating safety into the lean construction framework. In this research, lean construction theory is reviewed through the lens of safety. That being so, the identified challenges in previous research on improving safety in construction projects are categorized and those related to the concept of lean project delivery are introduced. Then, the principles of the lean construction framework are explained and the relevant changes for incorporating safety into the framework are introduced and discussed. It is expected that this hybrid model would further enrich the lean construction framework. The careful attention of project executives to this model may improve the safety situation in construction projects.

This paper has examined the effect of economic complexity on poverty in developing countries. The analysis has used a sample of 84 countries over the period 1980-2017. Results indicate that greater economic complexity results in lower poverty headcount rates. This is particularly the case for countries that enjoy higher economic growth rates, lower levels of income inequality and lower degrees of economic growth volatility, including due to lower sizes of export demand and financial flows shocks. These findings have important policy implications for developing countries that are exploring ways and means to recover from the current COVID-19 pandemic crisis, and prepare for future crises.

Land surface temperature (LST) is a critical parameter for land surface and atmospheric interactions. However, the applicability of current land surface temperature estimates for field-level hydrological, agricultural, and ecological operations is still challenging due to their coarse spatiotemporal resolution. In the current article, we have downscaled 100 m LST to 10 m by using high-resolution Sentinel-1,2 optical-microwave data and three different models- 1) Thermal Sharpening (TsHARP); 2) Thin Plate Spline (TPS); and 3) Random Forest (RF). The extensive analysis was performed at agricultural farms in the semi-arid (IARI) region of India during the winter and summer seasons of 2020-21 and 2021-22, arid (CAZRI) and per-humid (UBKV) region (2021-2022). The calibration accuracy of the RF model was shown to better agreement with the coefficient of determination (R2) of 0.982, root means square error (RMSE) 0.181 and normalized root means square error (RMSE) 0.061 with their lower values of standard errors over three diverse agro-climatic zones. The findings demonstrate that the validation accuracy of models' varied according to the agroclimatic zones, although RF and TPS consistently outperformed as compared to the TsHARP models.

Price markups and firm Tobin’s Q ratios are widely believed to have been increasing in the past several decades. Various models for the calculation of price markups have been developed, but each have methodological drawbacks and some results are poorly reflective of the near past wider macroeconomic experience. This paper defines an approach for the definition and measurement of markup pricing using the measure of Economic Rent and The Capital Asset Pricing Model. The results show limited markup pricing for The UK’s FTSE 100 companies (2018-2023), but that that certain Real Estate, Technology/Media and Financial Services/Equity Investment firms have enjoyed higher price markup levels. An analysis of the business models of these firms is used to qualitatively propose explanations for such markups. Finally, this work offers a formal proof that that expected price markup is equal to Tobin’s Q and finds that the empiric market level of markup is near equivalent to the market Tobin’s Q; differences between the markup and Tobin’s Q at the level of the firm are equally assessed.

The snow melt from the High Atlas is a critical water resource in Morocco. In spite of its importance, monitoring the spatio-temporal evolution of key snow cover properties like the snow water equivalent remains challenging due to the lack of in situ measurements at high elevation. Since 2015, the Sentinel-2 mission provides high spatial resolution images with a 5 day revisit time, which offers new opportunities to characterize snow cover distribution in mountain regions. Here we present a new data assimilation scheme to estimate the state of the snowpack without in situ data. The model was forced using MERRA-2 data and a particle filter was developed to dynamically reduce the biases in temperature and precipitation using Sentinel-2 observations of the snow cover area. The assimilation scheme was implemented using SnowModel, a distributed energy-balance snowpack model and tested in a pilot catchment in the High Atlas. The study period covers 2015-2016 snow season which corresponds to the first operational year of Sentinel-2A, therefore the full revisit capacity was not yet achieved. Yet, we show that the data assimilation led to a better agreement with independent observations of the snow height at an automatic weather station and the snow cover extent from MODIS. The performance of the data assimilation scheme should benefit from the continuous improvements in MERRA-2 reanalyses and the full revisit capacity of Sentinel-2.

The potential effect of implementing environmental regulations on economic growth is a controversial issue for a long time. As portrayed by Porter hypothesis, environmental regulations may impact on economic growth by reconstructing the economic structure. A number of previous literature proved the connections between the above three parties. With the intention of exploring the nature of this mechanism, it is important to understand the internal inter-relation of the three parties, requiring data from a large economy experiencing the transition in economic structure. By constructing a panel containing data from 30 Chinese provinces over 10 years (2008-2019), this paper investigate the dynamic inter-relation of the three parties by introducing PVAR model with Granger Test. Results reveal that environmental regulations give a “U” shaped impact to economic growth. In return, economic growth promotes the development of economy with a weakening strength. In addition, results also support the hypothesis that economic structure is the intermediate of economic growth and environmental regulations. There is a rooftop for the effect of economic structure to environmental regulations. The rooftop may signify the best optimization of primary structure.

The representation of aerosols in climate-chemistry models is important for air quality and climate change research, but it can require significant computational resources. To overcome this, simpler modules such as modal aerosol modules with three lognormal modes (MAM3) can be used. In this study, the coupling of the Carbon Bond Mechanism, version Z (CBMZ), and MAM3 chemistry modules in WRF-CAM5 was improved by adding biomass-burning emissions to both gas- and particle-phase chemistry and incorporating a conversion mechanism between volatile organic compounds (VOCs) and secondary organic carbons (SOCs). The study conducted six simulations over the western U.S. and northeastern Pacific region and compared the model’s performance with observational benchmarks such as reanalysis, ground-based, and satellite data. The results showed that the model with enhanced chemistry capabilities had a 31% and 58% reduction in root-mean-square errors (RMSE) for black carbon (BC) and organic carbon (OC) surface concentrations, respectively. The earlier release of the WRF-CAM5 version had two deficiencies that were addressed in this study. This research highlights the importance of accurate aerosol representation in climate-chemistry models for improving accuracy and reducing errors in simulations.

Sustainability in material purchasing is a growing area of research. Goods purchasing decisions strongly affect transportation path flows, vehicle consolidation, inventory levels and related obsolescence costs. Within a global sourcing context, companies experience the need of new decision making approaches capable to consider a large variety of factors, also linked with society and environment. Environmental impact assessment has become a key requirement for materials purchasing and transportation decisions since global warming is a rising concern both in academic and industrial researches. In fact, it is well known that the freight transport industry is responsible for large amounts of carbon emissions contributing to global warming. In this paper, we initially analyse and compare the environmental economic policies established by the International Governments in relation to the carbon trading systems adopted. Then, we develop a multi-objective lot sizing approach useful in practice to define the sustainable quantity to purchase when a Cap and Trade mitigation policy is present. We further analyse the model behaviour according to different carbon price values by demonstrating that carbon prices are still far too low to motivate managers towards sustainable purchasing choices.

Frequent employee resistance to innovation is one of the main barriers of change failure in a health care organization and one of the negative stimuli of employment relationships. Identifying the reasons of resistance is a topical issue for every organization, as the speed of change can affect their competitiveness. Consequently, it is helpful not only to know the causes of potential resistance but also to be ready to control any implicit opposition. The organizational climate and the attitude of the staff play an important role in understanding and accepting innovation. Purpose of the study is to develop a model, which would facilitate the choice of an appropriate strategy necessary to enable the health care organization to eliminate or at least to reduce resistance to often essential innovative changes. The article analyses the root causes of resistance and identifies strategies that help to mitigate or eliminate staff resistance for innovation. Use of suggested model can make easier reducing staff resistance to change processes and thus speed up the implementation of innovations. This methodology can be used to eliminate the reasons for staff resistance to change in health care institutions of different countries, but it was tested in Lithuania and achieved good enough results.

Species have shown their habital variations in responding to climate change, especially during the spring and summer spawning seasons. The species distribution model (SDM) is considered the most favorable tool to study the potential effects of climate change on species distribution. Therefore, we developed the ensemble SDM to predict the changes in species distribution of Portunus trituberculatus among different seasons in 2050 and 2100 under the climate scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. The results of SDM indicate that the distribution of this species will move northward and have obviouse seasonal variations. Meanwhile, the suitable habitat for the species will be significantly reduced in summer, with loses rates ranging from 45.23% (RCP4.5) to 88.26% (RCP.8.5) by 2100s. Habitat reduction will mainly occur in the East China Sea and southern part of the Yellow Sea, while there will be a small increase in the northern Bohai Sea. These findings will be important to manage the ecosystem and fishery, provide an information forecast of this species in the future, and maintain species diversity if the seawater temperature rises.

The virtual airport hub business model is an innovative solution supported by digital technologies, the implementation of which in continental air transport may lead to a reduction in energy consumption and to a reduction in greenhouse gas emissions. The prerequisites for the implementation of the described solution are: striving to implement the GHG emission reduction strategy laid out in the Paris Agreement (2015) and the European Green Deal (2019) as well as the EU digitalization strategy (2020). The use of predictive analitics to identify the mobility needs of population and operational capabilities of the sector, gives an opportunity to plan travel flows and to create an appropriate set of direct connections among regional airports every day. The results of the analysis of data from 2019 on the amount of energy consumption and GHG emissions indicate that in Europe, it would be possible to achieve reduce GHG emissions by 5% without reducing the number of passengers using air transport. The study was prepared after conducting literature studies, data analysis and using the method of formulating scenarios. The proposed solution has the features of an innovative business model, the implementation of which allows for obtaining more favorable effects using already available resources.

The study is devoted to analyzing the economic sustainability of the town of Amherst, MA. The city's top employer and core enterprise is the University of Massachusetts Amherst, with over 32,000 students and almost 2,000 staff members. Based on a literature review, a hypothesis was put forward that a university city should have a high level of economic sustainability. To assess economic sustainability, the USCESI Index was developed. It evaluates sustainability in three groups of parameters: society, economy, and ecology. The first group includes the level of racial diversity, the level of education of the population, and the access to medical services. The second group consists of the Gini coefficient by income level, the median cost of housing, and the unemployment rate. The environmental situation is assessed according to the Air Quality Index developed by the US Environmental Protection Agency. For comparison, the town of Braintree, MA, was taken. The USCESI was calculated for both locations. The analysis showed that both Amherst and Braintree have a high degree of economic sustainability. However, it was revealed that proximity to a significant economic center has a more powerful positive impact on economic sustainability than the location of a large university.

In this research, we investigate the healthcare expenditure patterns in Uzbekistan, analyze their economic implications, and provide policy recommendations. The study focuses on the time frame from 2000 to 2019, employing quantitative data analysis, theoretical frameworks such as Wagner’s Law, and an economic geography perspective. Our objective is to gain insights into the relationship between economic development and healthcare spending, identify spatial disparities, and forecast future trends. The findings reveal fluctuations in per capita healthcare spending, emphasizing the necessity for sustainable financing mechanisms and preventive measures. Ultimately, our study underscores the significance of aligning healthcare expenditure decisions with economic objectives while prioritizing the well-being of the population.

Aim: This study measures and evaluates the socioeconomic burden of people living with keratoconus in Saudi Arabia. Methods: The study employed a cross-sectional design, a Keratoconus Economic Burden Questionnaire, and a convenient sample of 89 keratoconus patients (58.4% male) drawn from multiple regions in Saudi Arabia. It was conducted using online surveys and the data was analysed using appropriate quantitative techniques. Results: The mean age and annual income of participants were 33.24 years and Saudi Riyal (SAR) 33,505.6180 (SD=62,215.29), respectively, with only 37% being employed for wages. Up to 94.4% needed glasses or contact lenses at least once a week and 73.0% received care from optometrists. The condition forced 45.9% of the respondents to change careers or leisure activities, with a further 51.3% having to take time off work. The mean annual out-of-pocket expenses for buying and maintaining glasses or contact lenses as well as traveling and accommodation for keratoconus-related treatment were SAR 8,673.19 (SD=11,307.73), with 48.32 incurring upwards of SAR 12,000 over the period. The treatment costs increased with disease duration, r(89) = .216, p < .05. Regression results show that the existence of comorbid eye disease, changing glasses at least once a year, and wearing either glasses or contact lenses at least once a week individually have statistically significant, negative effects on the total annual keratoconus treatment costs, while disease duration, utilisation of optometrists, and taking time off had a statistically significant increase on the total cost (p<.05). Conclusion: With a prevalence rate of 1 in 375, progressive debilitation, and the lifetime nature of the disease, keratoconus is a critical public health concern in Saudi Arabia. The resulting visual impairment and discomfort as well as both direct and indirect economic burdens have considerable impacts on the patient's quality of life.

The purpose of this paper is to apply China’s economy growth prospects and its potential drivers of future. China's fast rise and its growth model have accelerated important existing structural trends in the global economy and made them decisive characteristics of the world economy. China's role in the world economy over the coming decades, an exercise which would not be possible without an investigation of the prospects for China's continued economic rise. On the one hand, China is a large export market for the United States. A lot of U.S. firms use China as the final destination of assembly in their global supply chain networks. China’s huge holdings of U.S. Treasury securities support the federal government finance its budget failures. However, some analysts contend that China consolidates a number of distortive economic policies such as protectionist industrial policies and an undervalued currency that undermine U.S. economic interests. They warn that efforts by the Chinese government to promote indigenous innovation, often through the use of subsidies and other distortive measures, could negatively affect many leading U.S. industries

Achieving and sustaining stability for economic growth remain the greatest and most immediate development challenge for Ethiopia. For natural resource-based economies especially maintaining stability and growth depends fundamentally upon climate change adaptation and mitigation. The close links between climate and Ethiopia’s economy are reflected by the strong relationship between GDP growth rate and rainfall variability. A study by the World Bank projects that unless steps to build resilience are effective, climate change will reduce Ethiopia’s GDP growth by between 0.5 and 2.5% each year. Along with the challenges posed by climate change, a number of development opportunities are emerging in response to climate change which includes access to international climate finance. The international response to climate change in the form of external development finance plays a key role to support developing countries in their transition to a low-carbon, climate-resilient and sustainable development pathway. Therefore, this study was conducted to assess the flow and the overall contribution of climate finance to sustainable development in Ethiopia. Specifically, focused on outlining how climate finance is currently reconciled in the existing Ethiopian climate change governance and its contribution to sustainable development. In order to achieve these objectives, data were collected from different sources. The Rio Marker methodology applied to review climate financial flow over the 5 year period. The result reveals that, climate change is central to development agendas despite its recent emergence in the mainstream, with various initiatives under way to combat or reduce its impacts in Ethiopia. In addition, the amount of climate finance from the developed countries to Ethiopia shows some fluctuation for the past five years. In general, the overall flow of climate finance mostly targeted climate adaptation actions which spur and enable the transition towards climate-resilient growth and sustainable development.

Modern electrical power systems integrate renewable generation, with solar generation being one of the pioneers worldwide. In Latin America, the greatest potential and development of solar generation is found in Chile through the National Electric System. However, its energy matrix faces a crisis of drought and reduction of emissions that limits hydroelectric generation and involves the definitive withdrawal of coal generation. The dispatch of these plants is carried out by the system operator, who uses a simplified mechanism, called “economic merit list” and which does not reflect the real costs of the plants to the damage of the operating and marginal cost of the system. This inefficient dispatch scheme fails to optimize the availability of stored gas and its use over time. Therefore, a real-time redispatch model is proposed that minimizes the operation cost function of the power plants, integrating the variable generation cost as a polynomial function of the net specific fuel consumption, adding gas volume stock restrictions and water reservoirs. In addition, the redispatch model uses an innovative "maximum dispatch power" restriction, which depends on the demand associated with the automatic load disconnection scheme due to low frequency. Finally, by testing real simulation cases, the redispatch model manages to optimize the operation and dispatch costs of power plants, allowing the technical barriers of the market to be broken down with the aim of integrating ancillary services in the short term, using the power reserves in primary (PFC), secondary (SCF), and tertiary (TCF) frequency control.

Malaria is endemic in Nigeria and remains a major public health problem, taking its greatest toll on children under age 5 and pregnant women, although it is preventable, treatable, and curable. This study investigates the Impact of socio-economic factors and indoor mosquito control on malaria prevalent among pregnant women in Nigeria using logistic regression. To achieve this, secondary data obtained from 2015 Nigeria Malaria Indicator survey, executed by the National Malaria Elimination Programme (NMEP) and the National Population Commission (NPopC), with a nationally representative sample of more than 8,000 consisting of 7,745 households. The results from the logistic regression with odds ratio revealed that pregnant women are more like to be affected by malaria fever (though not significant) compared to women that are not pregnant. The income levels of the household does not significant reduce the incidence of malaria fever among pregnant women in Niger. Concerning the malaria presenting measure, only dwelling sprayed by private company significantly reduce the incidence of malaria fever among pregnant women (P-value=0.020<0.05) compared to dwelling sprayed by government and NGOs and also to Insecticide Treated Net. Also pregnant women in the urban centers are less likely to have malaria fever compared to pregnant women in rural communities in Nigeria. Also, pregnant women with atleast a secondary school level of education are less likely to be affected by malaria fever compared to pregnant women with no formal education. The fitted logistic model passed the goodness-of-test fit; the classification test for the logistic model was correctly classified at about 67.02%. Therefore, this study recommends that government and NGOs should intensify their efforts in the area of dwelling spraying, awareness campaign of the danger of malaria fever among pregnant women and infants, engaged in effective distribution of insecticide treated net in order to reduce the incidence of malaria fever among pregnant women living in rural communities in Nigeria.

Huge amounts of wastes are generated during shrimp processing, representing approximately 65% of the initial shrimp weight, which can become an environmental problem when accumulated. Residues such as shrimp shells can be processed to obtain value-added products such as chitin, chitosan, astaxanthin, and a nitrogenous extract under the biorefinery concept. In this work, the economic evaluation and the techno-economic sensibility analysis for a mass integrated biorefinery based on shrimp were developed to determine the economic feasibility of the project and to identify the critical techno-economic variables that affect the profitability of the process. The results showed that a biorefinery for the annual processing of 4,113.09 tons of fresh shrimp in Colombia is profitable, with a return on investment percentage (%ROI) equal to 65.88% and a net present value (NPV) of 10.40 MM USD. The process supports decreases of up to 28% in capacity of production and increases of 12% and 11% in the cost of raw materials and variable operating costs without incurring losses, respectively. However, the decrease over 500 USD/t in the shrimp meat selling price is not supported, thus it is mainly recommended to increase the selling price of this product.

This study assessed stakeholders’ perception on the prospects and challenges of practising Climate–Smart Agroforestry in the Asunafo North Municipal Assembly in the Ahafo Region in Ghana. Interviewer administered questionnaires were used to collect cross-sectional data from 250 cocoa, food and cash crop farmers drawn from four (4) communities using simple random sampling. And nine (9) in-depth interviews were also conducted to elicit key stakeholder perspectives. Stakeholders also held the view that Climate-Smart Agroforestry encourages the use of stress-tolerant crop varieties, increase income, improve soil productivity, diversify farm produce, urges the reduction of input supply and recommends the timely usage of the inputs, ensures better market system for farm produce, cost of production decreases during the practice of Agroforestry, agro-ecological functions and Climate-Smart Agroforestry can best help adapt to the threats of climate change in the agriculture sector. The challenges included insecure tree ownership right, fast-declining soil fertility and long maturity period of Agroforestry trees, land tenure issues, illegal tree logging (chainsaw operators) on farms, lack of practical understanding of the approach, inadequate knowledge and information and inadequate supportive facilities in the study area. The study recommends further studies on the existing forest policy and legislations and its implications on the practice and adoption of Climate-Smart Agroforestry in respond to climate change in the area.

An existing simplified simulation model of global climate, population, economy, and governance is extended, through statistical and other data analysis, to include several measures of human well-being and population displacement. The revised model is used to explore (in testing to the year 2060) vicious cycles and causal cascades that, some have warned, could lead to acceleration of climate change in the coming decades. Model scenario testing addresses two uncertainties, namely the strength of the effect of climate change on governance erosion, and the strength of the “heat trap” effect from physical tipping points such as ice loss and permafrost thaw. This testing indicates that a strong heat trap effect could very well accelerate climate change, but that even a strong governance erosion effect is unlikely to do so. Governance erosion would hurt human well-being but is probably not much of a climate threat per se. These results are tentative but point to the possibility of formally modeling causal cascades beyond what the larger climate models have done to date.

Rapid climate change requires more powerful and precise modeling methods to forecast future climate variability. The GSTARIMA Model is efficient, combining space-time analysis with the Autoregressive Moving Average (ARIMA) Model. The integration of heteroscedasticity error and the Kriging method can strengthen the Model's ability to handle the problem of non-constant error variance in the GSTARIMA Model and forecast at unobserved locations of climate observations. This paper's Systematics Literature Review (SLR) is presented comprehensively with the principal aim of developing a thorough understanding of applying the GSTARIMA Model with heteroskedasticity error and the Kriging Method in climate forecasting following the Data Analytics Lifecycle methodology. The Systematic Literature Review (SLR) process consists of three main stages. We sourced the articles from databases such as Scopus, Dimensions, and EBSCO-Host The subsequent stage involved conducting a comprehensive literature review using the PRISMA method to ensure rigor and depth. Additionally, we performed bibliometric analysis to enhance rigor. Lastly, we conducted a gap analysis session to scrutinize existing research on the GSTARIMA Model and identify new opportunities. This literature review reveals that integrating GSTARIMA Model with heteroscedasticity errors and the Kriging method is suitable for climate forecasting. This research inspires researchers to contribute to the improvement and refinement of the Model, making it a more potent and valuable tool in climate forecasting.

In this paper we illustrate a new, simple and complementary ground-based methodology to retrieve the vertically resolved atmospheric precipitation intensity through a synergy between measurements from the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Micropulse Lidar network (MPLNET), an analytical model solution and ground-based disdrometer measurements. The presented results are obtained at two mid-latitude MPLNET permanent observational sites, located respectively at NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, USA, and at the Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya, Barcelona, Spain. The methodology is suitable to be applied to existing and/or future lidar/ceilometer networks with the main objective of either providing near-real time (3h latency) rainfall intensity measurements and/or to validate satellite missions, especially for critical light precipitation (<3 mm hr⁻¹).

The paper addresses an analysis of the efficiency and profitability of the operation of a photovoltaic installation located in the geometric centre of Europe (near Białystok, Poland), where the intensity of solar irradiation is not too high compared to other European countries. It is calculated that in that place average solar irradiation being lower even by approx. 26 kWh than that for the whole Europe, which results in a 26% drop in the economic potential of the utilisation of solar energy for its conversion. A case study and an economic analysis show that without minimum funding amounting to 50% of the investment costs paid for the modernisation of a central heating system assisted by PV cells, the time of return of pecuniary expenditures exceeds 7 years. Apart from the Simple Pay-Back Time SPBT, discount indicators determined in the paper also include the net present value NPV and the internal rate of return IRR. Moreover, a direct ecological effect has been determined for such an investment.

This conceptual article is aimed at evaluating the COVID19 impacts on the global economy and to postulating an ‘economic paradigm shift’. We argue that the existing economic, political, and trade principles have been challenged due to the global pandemic issue. We also compare the COVID19 impact on Western countries and Eastern countries with their control mechanisms. The emerging of new economies is due to the travel restrictions and disrupt of the global economies are discussed that pave a gateway to the economic paradigm shift. The article finally assesses the advent of 5G technology and its implications to face any future health threats that will lead to the next economic paradigm shift in the modern world.

The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) recommends that the most recent 30-year period, i.e. 1991-2020, shall be used to compute climate normals of geophysical variables. A unique aspect this recent 30-year period is that the satellite-based observations of many different essential climate variables are available during this period, thus opening up new possibilities to provide a robust, global basis for the 30-year reference period in order to allow climate monitoring and climate change studies. Here, using the satellite-based climate data record of cloud and radiation properties, CLARA-A3, for the month of January between 1981 to 2020, we illustrate the difference between climate normal, as defined by guidelines from WMO on calculations of 30-yr climate normals, and climatology. It is shown that this difference is strongly dependent on the climate variable in question. We discuss the impacts of the nature and availability of satellite observations, variable definition, retrieval algorithm and programmatic configuration. It is shown that the satellite-based climate data records show enormous promise in providing climate normal for the recent 30-year period (1991-2020) globally. We finally argue that the holistic perspectives from the global satellite community should be increasingly considered while formulating the future WMO guidelines on computing climate normals.

Assessment of extreme events and climate change on reservoir inflow is important for water and power stressed countries. Projected climate is subject to uncertainties related to climate change scenarios and Global Circulation Models (GCMs’). Extreme climatic events will increase with the rise in temperature as mentioned in the AR5 of the IPCC. This paper discusses the consequences of climate change that include extreme events on discharge. Historical climatic and gauging data were collected from different stations within a watershed. The observed flow data was used for calibration and validation of SWAT model. Downscaling was performed on future GCMs’ temperature and precipitation data, and plausible extreme events were generated. Corrected climatic data was applied to project the influence of climate change. Results showed a large uncertainty in discharge using different GCMs’ and different emissions scenarios. The annual tendency of the GCMs’ is bi-vocal: six GCMs’ projected a rise in annual flow, while one GCM projected a decrease in flow. The change in average seasonal flow is more as compared to annual variations. Changes in winter and spring discharge are mostly positive, even with the decrease in precipitation. The changes in flows are generally negative for summer and autumn due to early snowmelt from an increase in temperature. The change in average seasonal flows under RCPs’ 4.5 and 8.5 are projected to vary from -29.1 to 130.7% and -49.4 to 171%, respectively. In the medium range (RCP 4.5) impact scenario, the uncertainty range of average runoff is relatively low. While in the high range (RCP 8.5) impact scenario, this range is significantly larger. RCP 8.5 covered a wide range of uncertainties, while RCP 4.5 covered a short range of possibilities. These outcomes suggest that it is important to consider the influence of climate change on water resources to frame appropriate guidelines for planning and management.

The field of water management is continually changing. Water has been subject to external shocks in the form of climate change and globalization. Analysis of water management is subject to disciplinary developments and inter-disciplinary interactions. Are these developments well documented in the literature? Initial observations on interdisciplinary literature suggest that results are fragmented, implying that a state-of-the-art review is needed. The objective of this paper is to close this gap by reviewing recent developments in water economics that address the increasing perceptions of water scarcity by looking first at changes in supply and quality of water, and then at impacts of climate change on water extremes. Among responses to such challenges, the paper identifies changes to water use patterns by including and co-managing water from different sources—surface and groundwater, wastewater, and desalinated water. Technological advancements also are among the resources that address water challenges. Water challenges reflect also on management of internationally shared water. A recent surge in scientific work identified international treaties as playing a significant role in water management. The paper reviews recently employed economic tools, such as experimental economics, game theory, institutional economics, and valuation methods. And finally, it explores modeling approaches, including hydro-economic and computable general equilibrium models that are being used to deal with water challenges.

As a rapidly growing coastal megacity, Shanghai is continuously threatened with land subsidence issues since 1920s. Land subsidence was controlled in 1960s, however in 1990s, unconscious and dangerous urban underground space (UUS) exploration and tunneling development are causing further land subsidence. It is imperative to study previous relations towards future adaptive and resilient scenario modelling and planning. There are multiple cause-effect factors determined in the urban built environment of Shanghai megacity. This paper presents the current evidence based on the relations of the multifactor of the spectrum. Methods consist of understanding the cause-effect relations and spatiotemporal from the crucial period of 1960-2020. Data are collected secondarily from multiple open sourced databases. The results determine Shanghai are highly influenced by the UUS development induced-subsidence, tunneling leakage and weak spatial modelling. Spatiotemporal pattern has shown a mixed positive-negative impact: population, land subsidence is growing in parallel distribution (positive) with tunneling leakage, construction of tunneling, metro system, UUS development, building price, reconstruction area, GDP growth, land price, arable land decrease and further tunnel settlement in Urban City Centre, Pudong New Area, Minhang, Baoshan and Songjiang districts. These results are useful for further adaptive and resilient scenario modelling and spatial planning.

Sustainability means that the current use of resources does not compromise the well-being of future generations. Ever since Malthus (1798) forecast that population tends to grow faster than the growth of resources to support the population, people have claimed that current resource use is unsustainable, so future generations will be materially worse off than those in the present, yet for more than two centuries this has not been the case. The reason is that markets, and market prices, act to conserve scarce resources, and in market economies, entrepreneurs have an incentive to discover more efficient ways to use resources. The claim that twenty-first century market economies are not sustainable is not supported by the evidence. This paper explains why entrepreneurship in market economies produces sustainable economic progress.

As recent history has shown, changing climate not only threatens to increase the spread of known disease, but also the emergence of new and dangerous phenotypes. This occurred most recently with West Nile virus: a virus previously known for mild febrile illness rapidly emerged to become a major cause of mortality and long-term disability throughout the world. As we move forward, into increasingly uncertain times, public health research must begin to incorporate a broader understanding of the determinants of disease emergence – what, how, why, and when. The increasing mainstream availability of high-quality open data and high-powered analytical methods presents promising new opportunities. Up to now, quantitative models of disease outbreak risk have been largely based on just a few key drivers, namely climate and large-scale climatic effects. Such limited assessments, however, often overlook key interacting processes and downstream determinants more likely to drive local manifestation of disease. Such pivotal determinants may include local host abundance, human behavioral variability, and population susceptibility dynamics. The results of such analyses can therefore be misleading in cases where necessary downstream requirements are not fulfilled. It is therefore important to develop models that include climate and higher-level climatic effects alongside the downstream non-climatic factors that ultimately determine individual disease manifestation. Today, few models attempt to comprehensively address such dynamics: up until very recently, the technology simply hasn’t been available. Herein, we present an updated overview of current perspectives on the varying drivers and levels of interactions that drive disease spread. We review the predominant analytical paradigms, discuss their strengths and weaknesses, and highlight promising new analytical solutions. Our focus is on the prediction of arboviruses, particularly West Nile virus, as these diseases represent the pinnacle of epidemiological complexity – solution to which would serve as an effective “gatekeeper”. We present the current state-of-the-art with respect to known drivers of arbovirus outbreak risk and severity, differentially highlighting the impact of climate and non-climatic drivers. The reality of multiple classes of drivers interacting at different geospatial and temporal scales requires advanced new methodologies. We therefore close out by presenting and discussing some promising new applications of AI. Given the reality of accelerating disease risks due to climate change, public health and other related fields must begin the process of updating their research programs to incorporate these much needed, new capabilities.

The advent of remote work has ushered in a new era of economic transformation, redefining the dynamics of local economies, and unleashing the multiplier effect on a national scale. This abstract explores the profound implications of remote work on local economies, dissecting how the multiplier effect operates within a nation's economic landscape. The multiplier effect is a fundamental economic concept that highlights how changes in spending and investment can create a ripple effect, leading to a magnified impact on an economy. This concept gains new significance in the context of remote work, as it triggers a chain reaction of economic activities that radiate from remote workers to their local communities. The increased flexibility and reduced geographical constraints of remote work have reshaped the allocation of resources. The continued reliance on remote work may lead to a reduction in demand for commercial real estate in urban centers, necessitating adaptive urban planning strategies. In conclusion, the rise of remote work has initiated a transformative era for local economies, driven by the multiplier effect. By amplifying the impacts of spending and investment, remote work fosters job diversification, innovation, and infrastructure development within communities. As remote work continues to reshape the landscape of work and life, understanding and harnessing its multiplier effect remains paramount for policymakers, businesses, and local communities alike. The multiplier effect is a concept in economics that illustrates how changes in spending can lead to larger impacts on a nation's economy through a chain reaction of economic activities. It demonstrates that an initial injection of spending, whether from government expenditure, investment, or consumption, doesn't just have a one-time impact. Instead, it sets off a series of interconnected spending and income-generation processes that result in a larger overall increase in economic activity. t's important to note that the multiplier effect can work in reverse as well. If there's a decrease in spending, it can lead to a decrease in economic activity and income through the same chain reaction process. This concept highlights the interconnected nature of economic activities and emphasizes the significance of changes in spending patterns on a nation's overall economic health. The magnitude of the multiplier effect is influenced by factors such as the marginal propensity to consume (the proportion of additional income that households spend), leakages (savings and taxes that reduce the multiplier effect), and the extent to which additional spending creates additional production capacity within the economy. Understanding the multiplier effect is essential for policymakers, as it helps them gauge the potential impacts of changes in fiscal and monetary policies on the economy.

Uzbekistan, as an emerging national economy, aims to attract foreign direct investment (FDI) to foster the development of its free economic zones (FEZs). While recent policy reforms have enhanced the country's appeal to investors and facilitated the inflow of international capital, challenges persist in attracting investment. This study employs an economic geographical approach to analyze and propose solutions to these obstacles. By examining the spatial patterns of FEZs and FDI through a comprehensive geographical lens, this research utilizes document analysis as an alternative to empirical analysis, considering the broader context rather than focusing on a specific FEZ. The findings reveal that the insufficiency of an innovation-driven environment, logistical systems, energy resource-related issues, among others, negatively impact the inflow of FDI into FEZs. Moreover, the study underscores the significance of economic geography in understanding these factors. Finally, relevant insights and recommendations are provided from an economic geographical perspective.

Introduction: Pre-Exposure Prophylaxis (PrEP) for HIV prevention has been implemented in several countries. Previous literature has shown that its cost-effectiveness (and, under some specifications, cost-saving character) is dependent on the reduction in price due to generics, the time-horizon and its effectiveness. The intervention has never been studied in Catalonia, a territory with extensive implementation. Methods: Economic evaluation of the implementation of HIV pre-exposition prophylaxis using administrative data from Men who have Sex with Men (MSM) who receive the treatment (at the generic price). A deterministic compartmental model and a social perspective with a micro-costing approach over the time horizon 2022-2062 are used. A baseline 86% effectiveness of PrEP is assumed. Results: Daily oral PrEP is found to be cost-saving: discounted savings in costs are attained after 16 years, and after 40 years they reach 81 million euros. In terms of health indicators, 10,322 additional discounted QALYs are generated by the intervention. Results are sensitive to sexual behavioral patterns among MSM, the price of PrEP (reduced if offered on-demand), its effectiveness and the discount rate. Conclusions: The use and promotion of PrEP in Catalonia is predicted to result in substantial health and monetary benefits because of reductions in HIV infections. Short-term investments in the promotion of PrEP will result in important cost-savings in the long term.

This study was conducted to propose the Green Economic Development Plan for Manufacturing S.M.E.s based on financial performance and operations thru Green Initiatives. The descriptive survey method used to gather data to determine the green initiative's implementation of small and medium (S.M.E.s) manufacturing enterprises. Green initiatives use as a basis for crafting a green economic development plan. Document analysis was also employed to obtain data from any available printed materials and records provided by the respondents. Such methods of gathering information used to validate data gathered from local and foreign-related literature. The observation also employed to survey the assets owned and validate any green initiatives practiced, including their implementation. The study's findings show that among the green initiatives implemented by SMMEs, which resulted in the reduction of total costs and expenses, were the proper disposal and segregation of waste materials, water management by recycling wastewater and using water-efficient equipment, natural resources, and raw materials management. SMMEs should encourage active participation and support of suppliers and customers in achieving G.E.D.'s objectives by developing incentive schemes.Furthermore, SMMEs should continue to benchmark with G.E.D. Practitioners are operating locally and abroad to adopt best greening strategies and regularly network with concerned government agencies for continuous updating on G.E.D. Initiatives that may benefit the firm. Further research may be conducted on green initiatives implemented by small and medium enterprises in other industry sectors.

Climate change effect on human-living in verities of way such as health and food security. This study presents predicting crop yields, and production risk in the near future (2020-2029) in northern Thailand using coupling 1 km resolution of regional climate model which is downscaled using a conservative remapping method and the Decision Support System for the Transfer of Agrotechnology (DSSAT) modeling system. The accuracy of the climate and agricultural model was appropriate compared to the observations with Index of Agreement (IOA) in ranges of 0.65 - 0.89. The DSSAT modeling system predicts that rice, and maize production will decrease by 5% and 4% in northern Thailand. In addition, a short-term risk analysis of rice and maize production has shown that, in the context of climate change, maize production appears to be at a high risk of low production in the near future, while rice cultivation might be a low risk.

Land use/land cover (LULC) and climate changes are two main factors directly affecting hydrologic conditions. However, very few studies in Vietnam have investigated changes in hydrological process under the impact of climate and land use changes on a basin scale. The objective of this study is to assess the individual and combined impacts of land use and climate changes on hydrological processes for the Nam Rom river basin, Northwestern Viet Nam using Remote Sensing (RS) and Soil and Water Assessment Tools (SWAT) model. SWAT model was used for hydrological process simulation. Results indicated that SWAT proved to be a powerful tool in simulating the impacts of land use and climate change on catchment hydrology. The change in historical land use between 1992 and 2015 strongly contributed to increasing hydrological processes (ET, percolation, ground water, and water yield), whereas, climate change led to significant decrease of all hydrological components. The combination of land use and climate changes significantly reduced surface runoff (-16.9%), ground water (-5.7%), water yield (-9.2%), and sediment load (-4.9%). Overall climatic changes had more significant effect on hydrological components than land use changes in the Nam Rom river basin during the 1992–2015. Under impacts of projected land use and climate change scenarios in 2030 on hydrological process of the upper Nam Rom river basin indicate that ET and surface flow are more sensitive to the changes in land use and climate in the future. In conclusion, the findings of this study will basic knowledge of the effects of climate and land-use changes on the hydrology for future development of integrated land use and water management practices in Nam Rom river basin.

Storm Ophelia made landfall over Ireland as an extra-tropical storm on the morning of the 16th of October 2017. The storm caused major power outages, lifted roofs, caused coastal flooding in Ireland, and resulted in the loss of three lives. A model’s capability to forecast extreme weather events such as Storm Ophelia is of utmost importance and now with a changing climate, it becomes more important to improve and enhance model forecasting capability. The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model V3.9 has been configured for the Irish domain and this study presents a preliminary evaluation of the Model during Storm Ophelia. Simulated wind speed and direction were compared with hourly remote sensing (lidar) and in-situ (wind speed and wind direction at 10m) observations at the coastal site of Mace Head Atmospheric Research Station on the West coast of Ireland (53.33◦ N, 9.90 49 ◦ W). The model simulation has generally small biases in the simulated wind speed and wind direction during this case study. The model also realistically simulated the magnitude and geographical distribution of the wind speed and wind direction observed during Ophelia.

We revisit the notion of climate, along with its historical evolution, tracing the origin of the modern concerns about climate. The notion (and the scientific term) of climate has been established during the Greek antiquity in a geographical context and it acquired its statistical content (average weather) in modern times, after meteorological measurements had become common. Yet the modern definitions of climate are seriously affected by the wrong perception of the previous two centuries that climate should regularly be constant, unless an external agent acted. Therefore, we attempt to give a more rigorous definition of climate, consistent with the modern body of stochastics. We illustrate the definition by real-world data, which also exemplify the large climatic variability. Given this variability, the term “climate change” turns out to be scientifically unjustified. Specifically, it is a pleonasm as climate, like weather, has been ever changing. Indeed, a historical investigation reveals that the aim in using that term is not scientific but political. Within the political aims, water issues have been greatly promoted by projecting future catastrophes while reversing the true roles and causality directions. For this reason, we provide arguments that water is the main element that drives climate and not the opposite.

Even though Greece is considered a vulnerable region in terms of climate hazards, public perception and attitude do not always identify climate change as an important environmental area of concern, especially when compared to socio-economic issues. The key issue of this paper is to investigate and analyse public perception in Greece as regards to climate change risk. Through a questionnaire survey this paper analyses trends that exist, peoples’ opinion and awareness with regards to climate risk and how willing they are to change current lifestyle, to pay or to act to minimize or to prevent the risk. Conventional wisdom of this paper is to highlight factors that influence individual perception and point out drivers of behavior change that can support efficiently future adaptation plans.

Keywords: Innovation ecosystems, Economic sustainability, Hydrocarbon-based economies, Economic diversification, Qualitative approach

The Nordic countries are practically always well positioned in the main international economic, social and sustainability indices and recommending the scientific literature that the variables that these indices intend to measure translate into sustainable economic growth, with this unprecedented empirical study we intend to verify through the ARDL methodology for space temporal 2004 -2018 if the maintenance of high scores in these indexes translates into effective economic growth. The ARDL methodology has the advantage of giving us short- and long-term coefficients. Using four of the main international indices, we conclude that for Nordic countries for economic growth, economic freedom is of no significance and business-friendly regulation is the most important variable. A fundamental discovery in our study (in which Granger's Causality complements the ARDL methodology) is that these countries have been able to adapt perfectly to the globalization process and that entrepreneurship has worked as an important contribution to the continued economic and social success of these countries, allowing them to continue to enjoy their “Nordic Welfare States” in these uncertain and troubled times. These variables have contributed to its economic and social sustainability.

The main objective of this paper is to assess pro-environmental behavior, climate change perception, anxiety, hope and despair in different political orientations. Specific aims included to validate all the instruments; to assess whether the factor structure of the scales were valid across political orientations; to evaluate their reliability; to assess differences concerning age, gender and political orientation; to know the variables that explain pro-environment behavior; and to evaluate the moderating role of climate change perception, despair and hope in the relationship between climate change anxiety and pro-environmental behavior. Confirmatory factor analysis (CFAs), multi-group CFAs (to measurement invariance), multiple linear regressions and moderations were performed. Results showed that pro-environment behavior and climate change hope achieved the four levels of invariance across different political orientations; climate change anxiety achieved the three first levels of invariance; climate change perception and climate change despair achieved configural invariance. Climate change anxiety personal experience, climate change perception total, reality and consequences present higher values in left political orientation that in right or center. Climate change anxiety variables contribute most to explaining pro-environmental behaviors. Hope, despair and climate change perception consequences moderate de relationship between climate change anxiety and pro-environment behavior. These results open up new avenues of investigation, namely, to understand why high levels of anxiety lead to more pro-environment al behaviors.

In the decarbonization of the steel, cement, and chemical industry in Germany, green hydrogen is expected to play a crucial role. The utilization of green hydrogen in the production processes of said industries requires organizations to modify their business model, requiring sustainable business model innovation (SBMI). Numerous tools and frameworks that support organizations in the process of SBMI have been proposed in the literature in recent years. However, the applicability of these tools and frameworks for steel, cement, and chemical companies that intend to utilize green hydrogen to produce their goods remains unexplored. By conducting a systematic literature review on tools and frameworks for SBMI, a literature and practice review to identify and analyze existing green hydrogen projects of steel, cement, and chemical companies, and an evaluation of the identified tools and frameworks in an evaluation matrix, this paper aims to assess the suitability of SBMI tools and frameworks for steel, cement, and chemical companies that plan to use green hydrogen to produce their goods. Based on the evaluation, the Cambridge Business Model Innovation Process (CBMIP) was identified as the most suitable SBMI framework.

Whereas many carbon cycle models track CO₂ perturbations relative to a pre-industrial equilibrium, this paper uses absolute quantities to describe atmospheric CO₂ sinks, source and flow rates. This method, when combined with the notion of source and sink resistance, and a finite biospheric reservoir, accurately describes ¹⁴C levels between 1820 and 2020 using only five external parameters. The inputs are:- global records of fossil-fuel emissions, records of CO₂ mixing-ratio and listings of atmospheric atomic weapons tests. Over the same period ¹³C flows are also accurately described given a ð¹³C value for fossil fuel and a ð¹³C value for the initial background. This top-down approach differs from complex climate models since it circumvents the necessity to catalogue individual processes. The paper proceeds to use the method to examine the anthropogenic fossil-fuel emissions contributions during the period 1750 to 2020, deducing that around 24% remains in the atmosphere, while 76% has been absorbed in the land, terrestrial biosphere and surface ocean. During the same period 13% of the total CO₂ atmospheric concentration is due to fossil fuels. However, regarding the increase, fossil fuels contributed to 38% of the rise during this period.

Abstract: Climate change is one of the main barriers for agricultural production and productivity globally. Hence, understanding farmers’ adoption level of CSA practices and determinants is of highly important for policy decisions. Consequently, the study's purpose was to assess adoption level of multiple CSA practices and determinants of climate-smart agriculture practices in the study area. The study was conducted in Welmera Woreda, Oromia Region, Ethiopia. From the Woreda, three kebeles were identified, and 306 respondent farmers were selected. A cross-sectional household survey, focus group discussion, and key informant interviews were used. Multivariate probit model was used to examine adoption determinants of multiple climate-smart agriculture practices. According to the result, Conservation agriculture, integrated soil fertility management, and crop diversification are the most commonly practiced CSA techniques in the study area. Demographic factors result indicated that being male as compared with female farmers, has positive and significant effect on crop diversification and improved livestock feed and feeding practices. Age of farmers significantly and negatively affecting the probability of adoption of improved soil fertility management practices and crop diversification. However, it affects the adoption of agroforestry practices positively and significantly. Based on the result of economic factors, having relatively large farm land size significantly increases the adoption of conservation agriculture, improved soil fertility management, crop diversification, improved livestock feed and feeding practices, and postharvest technology practice. Better farm income increases the likelihood of uptake of improved livestock feed and feeding. Having a large number of livestock positively influences adoption of conservation agriculture and having access to credit services positively influences the implementation of agroforestry, crop diversification, and postharvest technology. In addition, institutional factors such as access to agricultural extension service and training found that significantly and positively influences the adoption of crop diversification; access to participation on farmers’ field day similarly significantly and positively influence the adoption of both conservation agriculture and improved soil fertility management practice. Awareness creation for farmers and experts about climate change and including location specific CSA practices in to agricultural program is crucial.

In the recent century, the tourism industry and within it the tourism economy are one of the most important and fundamental sectors of engaged business. E-tourism can be used as a dynamic tool in up to date areas of informative information and tourism marketing will be considered as a suitable field for the tourism industry. The aim of this study was to investigate the relationship between climate change and the amount of revenues from the tourism industry relying on a tool called e-tourism, and informing and providing services through this way so that Iran can achieve a greater share of export of a single-product oil economy combined with economic growth and sustainable development goals. The method of this research is descriptive-analytical.

This study assessed the impact of climate change on water availability and variability in two subbasins in the Upper Blue Nile Basin of Ethiopia. Downscaled future climate data from HadCM3 of A2 (medium-high) and B2 (medium-low) emission scenarios were compared to the observed climate data for a baseline period (1961 to 1990). The emission scenario representing the baseline period was used to predict future climate and as input to a hydrologic model to estimate the impact of future climate on the streamflow at three future time horizons 2020 - 2045, 2045 - 2070 and 2070 - 2100. Results suggest that medium-high emission scenario best represents the local rainfall and temperature pattern. With A2 scenario, daily maximum/minimum temperature will increase throughout the future time horizons. The minimum and maximum temperature will increase by 3.6^oC and 2.4^oC, respectively, towards the end of the 21st century. Consequently, potential evapotranspiration is expected to increase by 7.8%, though trends in annual rainfall do not show statistically meaningful trends between years. A notable seasonality was found in the rainfall pattern such that dry season rainfall amounts are likely to increase and wet season rainfall to decrease. The hydrological model indicated that the local hydrology of the study watersheds will be significantly influenced by climate change. Overall, at the end of the century, streamflow will increase in both rivers by up to 64% in dry seasons and decrease by 19% in wet seasons.

The government of Nepal (GoN) has developed and implemented climate policies, plans and frameworks such as NAPA, National Climate Change Policy, LAPA and currently in the process of developing National Adaptation Plans (NAPs). These policies and plans are in different states of its implementation with diverse opinions and perceptions of the stakeholders. The paper has explored these opinions and experiences of climate experts in Nepal on state of climate policies, inter-linkages, roles and responsibilities of ministries/departments, important factors and subjective indicators for effective implementation of the policies. Altogether 30 experts responded the questionnaire sent via the email, LinkedIn and Skype Interview in the 1^st phase of Delphi research technique. The experiences of these experts range from 2-30 years representing government, non-government sectors, media and independent experts. As per most of the experts interviewed, the policies and plans are progressing in strategic direction with national and local priorities. The LAPA is the pioneer framework to address the local climatic issues, originated in Nepal. However, lack of clarity on roles/responsibilities and coordination among the ministries/departments; clear mechanisms for implementation of these policies; lack of sensitization, decentralization and delegation of finance and technologies; capacity of the stakeholders are the major challenges identified.

This paper starts with hypothesis (and presents some evidence) that anxiety in migrants is sufficiently important to be modelled. It presents a small (and very incomplete) review of emotion modelling in literature. It asks the question of how to translate these into agent-based modelling, and whether this can be orthogonal to specific modelling of goals and capabilities of agents. This short paper is offered as a motivator for discussion, rather than a discussion of results.

Muslim countries witnessed outstanding intellectual and socio-economic prosperity up to the 18th century when they fell into a period of regression following the Ottoman’s global decline. Currently, economically Muslim societies lags behind the modern western world. Scholars hold different views, including the radical notion that Islam is inherently anti-development and thus resists progress. This study discusses the Islamic philosophy and principles of development in the context of institutional economics. The basic principles of Islamic economic development drawn from the Islamic sources and historical experiences will be explored for a better understanding of Muslims’ current condition. This study addresses questions including whether basic religious precepts caused Muslims’ economic underdevelopment, while examining the development process according to Muslim perspectives. The institutions, the organizations, rules, and applications will also be explored in addition to the impact of those institutions on development. The context of development will also be evaluated according to Western value perspective. A model of Islamic economic development will be discussed in addition to the discussions of institutions that contributed to the early development of the Islamic world.

This study attempts to assess the impact of corruption on economic growth in the Mediterranean countries, during the period from 1998 to 2007. Econometric analysis using panel regression has been adopted to test this effect. Individual effects models such as random effects model and fixed effects model were applied to the study sample of 160 observations, and to choose the suitable model, we implemented several tests. For our analysis, we used a basic model that includes the dependent variable GDP per capita as a factor of economic growth and the corruption perception index as the independent variable concerned. Then we completed the model with several standardized macroeconomic control variables mentioned above and applied the individual effects models. The outcomes illustrate that corruption has a negative impact on the selected Mediterranean countries’ economic growth.

Achieving high economic growth rate while maintaining low inflation rate, has become the main objective of monetary authorities all over the world. Indeed, empirical literature reflects that high inflation rates are detrimental to long run growth and entail welfare costs. To achieve this objective, central banks have availed different options from time to time which include inflation targeting. Monetary authorities in Tanzania have been targeting an inflation level of around 5 percent per annum for economic policy purposes. However, when high inflation is to be controlled, tight monetary policy is put in place which might in turn affect the economic activity. Also, the Tobin effect suggests that inflation causes individuals to substitute out of money and into interest earning assets, which leads to greater capital intensity which in turn promotes economic growth. Against these major points, this paper examines a non linear relationship between inflation and economic growth using both a quadratic and threshold endogenous models and attempts to identify the existence of threshold effects between these variables. The paper uses a data set spanning from 1967 to 2015. The most interesting finding of the estimations is that the estimated coefficient of the linear term of inflation is negative while the estimated coefficient of the square term of inflation is positive, suggesting a U-shaped effect as opposed to inverse or inverted U-shaped relationship found in other countries by previous studies. These results suggest that the Tobin effect may be valid for high inflation, in which people strongly realize the importance of substituting money for interest-bearing assets. This leads to an increase in capital investment, and in turn, an increase in economic growth even with high inflation rate. However, this U-shaped relationship between inflation and economic growth suggests that, the economy is better off at extremely low inflation episodes. The optimal inflation rate that ranges between 3.25 percent and 3.75 percent is obtained by minimizing the residual sum of squares and/or maximizing adjusted R-squared. These findings have some policy implications for the policymakers and development partners. The paper is consistent with policy suggestions by international agencies. Efforts to minimize inflation to a very low level are likely to have a positive effect on economic growth.

This article presents and discusses analytical data on the scientific publication record from 1910 to 2020 on two topics: "climate" and "climate change/global warming/climate emergency". The goal is to visualize how the publication record on these two topics has evolved over time, from different classification perspectives (year, country, source and organization). Three hypotheses are tested using data collected from Web of Science and various graphical representations of the data. It is found that research output related to the Earth’s contemporary changing climate overtook that of general climate research in 2011, and the publication ratio has been expanding in the last decade. There are significant differences in the publication countries and sources between the two topics, and conversely less significant differences in terms of organizations publishing these works. Differentiation factors that affect the level of research output and engagement on the climate challenge include: island versus landlocked nations, specialized versus general scientific journals, academic versus institutional organizations. The future of the publication records is discussed, such as the emergence of new terms to refer to the climate challenge, such as “climate emergency”.

Green economy has emerged as a significant pillar of sustainable development in the current global context, and the unpredictability of economic policy has progressively garnered the interest of businesses and government officials as one of the obstacles they must confront. This paper examines how uncertainty in the green economy impacts the green economy's efficacy. The research concentrates on how changes in a particular region can result in geospatial diffusion (spatial spillover), which is a form of spatial spillover wherein the uncertainty of the green economy can impact its efficacy. This paper examines the policy formulation and current state of the green economy across various regions, as well as the diffusion of economic policy uncertainty across geographical areas and the subsequent impact on the green economy's status quo. There is a negative correlation between economic policy uncertainty and green economy efficacy, according to research. There is a spatial spillover effect between economic policy uncertainty and the efficacy of the green economy. Regional variations exist in the impact of economic policy uncertainty on the efficacy of the green economy. The findings indicate that the implementation of AI has a more substantial beneficial effect on carbon emissions. An increase in carbon dioxide emissions poses a growing challenge for the industrial sector in its pursuit of carbon neutrality.

The German Constitutional Court’s climate verdict provides a re-interpretation of liberal- democratic core concepts and is highly relevant for liberal constitutional law in general – including EU and international law. The verdict accepts human rights as intertemporal and globally applicable; it applies the precautionary principle to these rights and frees them from the misleading causality debate. However, the court fails to address the most important violations of human rights, and it categorised climate policy as a greater threat to freedom than climate change. And the court does not make it clear that the Paris 1.5-degree limit implies a radically smaller carbon budget. Furthermore, little attention has so far been paid to the fact that the ruling implies an obligation for more EU climate protection, especially since most emissions are regulated supranationally. To be effective, the EU emissions trading system demands a reform, which should go well beyond the existing EU proposals to enable societal transformation to sustainability.

The purpose of the evaluation of the Peruvian energy generation system is to project the electricity generation and demand until the year 2050. To achieve this, three alternative scenarios have been defined and analyzed using the LEAP (Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning) software. The scenarios are as follows: the first one, Business-as-Usual scenario, based on normal trends according to historical data and referencing projections made by Peruvian state entities; the second one is focused on Energy Efficiency, the highlighted characteristic is taking into consideration the efficient conditions in transmission and distribution of electric energy; and the third one, centered on Geothermal Energy, focused on the development of this type of energy source and prioritizing it. The primary purpose of this analysis is to identity advantages and disadvantages inherent in each scenario in order to get the best of each one. In this way, the intention is to propose solutions based on Peru’s national reality or possible uses of the country’s energy potential to supply its energy demand. Currently, Peru’s energy demand relies on fossil fuels, hydraulic, and thermal energy. However, there is the possibility of transforming this system into a sustainable one, by strengthening existing and growing energy sources such as solar and wind energy, and new technologies for hydraulic and thermal energy, in addition to considering geothermal energy as the main energy source in the third scenario. The new system mentioned satisfactorily indicate that the CO2 equivalent emissions decrease significantly in the third scenario, with a 15.8% reduction compared to the first scenario and a 9.7% reduction in comparison to the second. On the other hand, the second scenario shows a 5.6% decrease in CO2 emissions compared to the first, resulting from improvements in technology and energy efficiency without requiring significant modifications or considerable investments, as in the third scenario.