Preprint Article Version 1 Preserved in Portico This version is not peer-reviewed

Multi-Dimensional Impacts of Climate Change on China’s Food Security during 2002-2021

Version 1 : Received: 7 March 2024 / Approved: 7 March 2024 / Online: 7 March 2024 (15:04:22 CET)

A peer-reviewed article of this Preprint also exists.

Zhou, H.; Cao, N.; Yang, L.; Xu, J. Multi-Dimensional Impacts of Climate Change on China’s Food Security during 2002–2021. Sustainability 2024, 16, 2744. Zhou, H.; Cao, N.; Yang, L.; Xu, J. Multi-Dimensional Impacts of Climate Change on China’s Food Security during 2002–2021. Sustainability 2024, 16, 2744.

Abstract

Climate change poses a significant threat to global food security, necessitating a thorough examination across multiple dimensions. Establishing appropriate food security evaluation indicators that align with the evolving concept of food security is imperative. This study enhances food security evaluation by refining a multi-dimensional framework and analyzing the impact of climate change across various regions from 2002 to 2021. By constructing an Food Security Index system composed of a three-tier indicator system and employing the entropy method for weighting, we assess the impacts of climate change on food security using a climate-economic model. Regression analysis reveals a negative linear relationship between mean temperatures and food security (p<0.01), while precipitation impacts food security non-linearly, particularly exhibiting inverse U-shaped patterns in major grain-producing and grain-consuming areas. Extreme high temperatures consistently reduce food security, whereas extreme precipitation displays a complex, statistically significant inverse U-shaped association. In regions where production and consumption are balanced, mean temperatures have a negative effect on food security, while precipitation exhibits a positive correlation, but excessive precipitation can have adverse effects. These findings highlight the intricate interplay between climate change, regional disparities, and food security in China, emphasizing the need to consider multi-dimensional factors and regional variations in addressing food security challenges. These insights are invaluable for policy-making and planning aimed at enhancing food security in China.

Keywords

Climate change; Food security; Economic-climate model

Subject

Environmental and Earth Sciences, Sustainable Science and Technology

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