Abstract: Warm rain events occur when moist air masses containing elevated precipitable water produce high rainfall rates capable of generating local flash floods. Catalonia, located on the northeastern Mediterranean coast of the Iberian Peninsula, is regularly affected by such episodes: approximately 70% of daily precipitation events exceeding 10 mm with fewer than ten cloud-to-ground lightning flashes can be classified as warm rain. The current research aimed to identify the meteorological conditions most conducive to heavy warm rain episodes in Catalonia. These cases are commonly associated with flash flood episodes in the study region. We have utilized rain gauges, lightning data, radar, and model fields, combined with radio sounding profiles. First, we have identified and characterized warm rain cases, and secondly, we have selected some relevant cases to characterize the phenomenon. These events occur predominantly along the Catalan coast during the warm season, typically following the passage of a cold front, and are associated with shallow convective clouds producing little or no lightning. However, the key determining factor is a characteristic vertical thermodynamic profile: a moist and saturated lower troposphere with high precipitable water beneath a low- to mid-level thermal inversion, weak instability concentrated near the surface. Furthermore, local wind convergence plays a principal role in the rainfall pattern.

Abstract: Climate change is making it more difficult for farmers in Nigeria to grow crops, ensure food security, and compete in global agricultural markets. One main, however often overlooked, factor including strain to food crops is ultraviolet (UV) radiation. This study examines how introducing UV radiation sensors to Nigeria's climate information system could make agriculture trade more climate-resilient and support the SDGs. The study discovered seasonal and regional UV variations that correspond to Nigeria's cropping cycles and agricultural trade activities using satellite UV data, agricultural production, crop calendars, and export records from 2021 to 2024. This paper also found that precise UV monitoring can notify farmers and exporters of any weather threats. This may also help them to make better planting, crop growth, and harvest decisions with this knowledge. The study also emphasizes that expanding UV sensors in crop production and trade, the value of integration, data availability, and technical competence must be addressed. The study concludes that Nigeria needs an enhanced UV sensor to increase weather adaptation to satisfy international crop standards, food production and protection, and to stay competitive in agricultural global markets despite climate change. This UV sensing integration into the climatic system is important to Nigeria's agricultural crop growth and trade sustainability.

Abstract: The retail fuel sector in urban areas presents significant environmental risks, requiring systematic sustainability assessments. This study aims to highlight the socio-environmental performance of fuel stations in Mossoró/RN using the Corporate Sustainability Index (ISE). It is a descriptive and exploratory study with a quantitative approach, based on questionnaires administered to managers of 12 licensed fuel stations. The ISE was calculated using 17 equally weighted environmental, legal, social, and operational indicators. The results indicated a predominance of high sustainable performance, with 91.7% of enterprises presenting an ISE above 75%, associated with operational organization, preventive practices, and compliance with legal requirements. However, some actions remain primarily tied to regulatory compliance, revealing a predominantly reactive environmental management profile. The study provides insights for enhancing strategic environmental management in the urban context of the Brazilian Semi-Arid region.

Abstract: In Latin America, sustainable commitments towards decarbonizing hard-to-abate industrial sectors have identified hydrogen (H2) as a key enabler for the energy transition. This study develops a policy analytical framework to enhance the green H2 economy, using Argentina as the central case study. Key insights from the study include identifying often-overlooked social challenges within the H2 economy and proposing the integration of social indicators into policy design, with a particular focus on the territorial dynamics of Patagonia, labor conditions, indigenous participation, governance, and community impacts. Drawing from Social Life Cycle Assessment (S-LCA) guideline standards and H2 approach, this study highlights key social hotspots that existing S-LCA tools overlook due to their lack of specific focus on regional territories and their communities. The analysis combines six social impact categories, namely, human rights, working conditions, health and safety, cultural heritage, governance, and socio-economic repercussions as recommended by the United Nations Environmental Program (UNEP), analyzed at a three-level dimension, and complemented by the H2 justice approach for Argentina's potential green H2 production sector. These policy recommendations aim to foster a more resilient and sustainable development of the green H2 industry.

Abstract: Accurate monitoring and forecasting of vegetation dynamics are essential for sustainable ecosystem management, agricultural planning, and climate adaptation in semi-arid environments. Satellite-derived vegetation indices provide a powerful tool for assessing vegetation health and productivity over large spatial scales. Among these indices, the Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI) offers improved sensitivity in high-biomass regions and reduced atmospheric and soil background effects compared to traditional indices. This study develops a deep learning framework to forecast vegetation dynamics across the Kurdistan Region of Iraq (KRI), covering the governorates of Erbil, Duhok, Sulaymaniyah, and Halabja. Monthly time-series data (2016–2024) were derived from Sentinel-2 imagery and combined with climatic variables including precipitation and temperature. Twelve deep learning architectures, including recurrent neural networks, convolutional–recurrent hybrids, temporal convolutional networks, and attention-based models, were evaluated using a multivariate feature set incorporating EVI, climate variables, and seasonal encoding. Model performance was assessed using multiple statistical metrics, including R², RMSE, MAE, and Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency. The best-performing architecture was then used to generate vegetation projections under climate change scenarios derived from CMIP6 forcing using the IPCC AR6 delta-factor method. Future vegetation trajectories were simulated for the period 2025–2050 under baseline, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5 scenarios, incorporating Monte Carlo dropout to quantify predictive uncertainty. The proposed framework demonstrates strong potential for forecasting vegetation dynamics in data-limited semi-arid regions and provides insights into potential vegetation responses to future climate change in Kurdistan Region of Iraq.

Abstract:

The Dongchuan District of Kunming City lies in the transition zone between the Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau and the Sichuan Basin, hosting numerous landslides that pose a serious threat to local lives and property. Therefore, compiling a comprehensive landslide inventory and analyzing the relationships between landslide spatial distribution and influencing factors are of significant importance for geological hazard prevention. This study focuses on the Dongchuan District. High-resolution remote sensing imagery was interpreted to establish a landslide inventory, and the spatial distribution and geometric characteristics of landslides were systematically analyzed. The results show that a total of 1,623 landslides were identified, covering an area of 10.36 km². Landslides predominantly occur at elevations of 1,000-2,000 m, on slopes of 20°-45°, with aspects of 255°-285°, relief between 150-400 m, annual rainfall below 825 mm, and within a distances of 1,000 m from rivers and 3,000 m from faults. Four landslide clusters were delineated along the Xiao River Fault, highlight the significant influence of the fault on the spatial distribution of landslides. Most landslides are longitudinal in planform, with travel distances (L) of 50-450 m and heights (H) from 25 to 350 m, exhibiting allometric relationships between these parameters and volume. The mean H/L ratio is 0.56 (corresponding to a mean reach angle of 29°), significantly higher than that observed in Baoshan City (mean reach angle of 21°). The results would be helpful for further understanding landslide initiation mechanisms and spatial distribution patterns on the northern margin of the Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau and providing valuable data support for subsequent landslide hazard risk assessment in this region.

Abstract:

This paper addresses the practical challenge of inadequate motivation for energy enterprises to reduce pollution and carbon emissions in the context of increasing environmental pollution and carbon emissions. From the perspective of the informal institution of reputation incentives, this paper constructs a tripartite evolutionary game model involving energy enterprises, the public and the government. Through theoretical derivation and numerical simulation, the paper systematically analyzes the influence path of reputational gains and losses on enterprises' technological transformation decisions, and examines the moderating effects of key parameters such as transformation costs and government subsidies. The conclusions are as follows: (1) The reputation incentive mechanism regulates the cost-profit structure of enterprises through the dual effects of reputation gains and losses, and has a significant driving effect on the technological transformation and pollution reduction and carbon emission reduction of energy enterprises. (2) The three-party strategy exhibits dynamic dependence and collaborative evolution characteristics. The system converges to the ideal equilibrium of enterprise transformation, public participation, and government empowerment, depending on the relative magnitudes and coupling relationships of key parameters such as transformation costs. (3) Government subsidies provide short-term incentives for enterprises to undergo transformation, but they also impose long-term constraints. Therefore, government subsidies need to be combined with the reputation incentive mechanism to achieve sustainable governance. These findings provide a theoretical foundation and practical reference for designing incentive-compatible policy combinations and promoting the deep low-carbon transformation of energy enterprises.

Abstract: Metro Manila, one of the world’s most densely populated megacities, is highly vulnerable to sea-level rise due to its low-lying deltaic location, frequent tropical cyclones, and rapid anthropogenic subsidence from groundwater extraction. This study integrates historical PSMSL tide-gauge records from Manila Harbour with IPCC AR6 projections under Shared Socioeconomic Pathways, incorporating vertical land motion (VLM) and sea-level fingerprints to estimate local relative sea-level (RSL) changes. Assuming constant subsidence, cumulative VLM reaches –0.785 m by 2100 and –1.289 m by 2150. Including climatic contributions (amplified 10–20% by fingerprints, particularly under high-emission scenarios from far-field Antarctic ice loss in the western Pacific), projected RSL ranges from 1.09–1.42 m (SSP1-2.6) to 1.51–2.00 m (SSP5-8.5) by 2100, and from 1.70–2.28 m to 2.41–3.54 m by 2150. Results indicate 7.95–11.15 km² (1.2–1.8%) of land could face permanent ocean-connected inundation under high scenarios, mainly in Malabon (~18%), Navotas (~20%), and Manila (~7%). These conservative estimates (excluding aquaculture areas) are much lower than prior mid-century projections of up to 30%. Intensified chronic flooding, erosion, and saltwater intrusion threaten millions, requiring urgent integrated adaptation, groundwater regulation, and combined nature-based and engineered solutions.

Abstract: Radon (²²²Rn₈₆), the second leading cause of lung cancer, is common in indoor air. However, radon testing is generally low throughout the US. In this study, we utilized 134,496 short-term indoor air radon test results from Georgia, USA. We investigated the association of the radon testing rate with a total of 104 different independent variables belonging to 7 categories: 1) Demographic and Neighborhood Characteristics; 2) Housing Characteristics; 3) Literacy and Numeracy; 4) Employment and Economy; 5) Selected Social Factors; 6) Access to Computer/Internet; and 7) Status of Healthcare, Health, Well-being, and Life-Style. We used Bivariate Correlation, Multivariate Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) Regression, and Factor Analysis followed by Factor-Score-based OLS regression. Significant negative associations of the testing rates were observed with population diversity, residential segregation, urban population density, younger population, housing age, household size, low-literacy, unemployment, childcare cost burden, poverty, obesity, and frequency of mental- and physical-unhealthy days. In contrast, testing rates were positively associated with older population, home value, owner-occupied homes, higher literacy, higher institutional education, income, prevalence of social association, and life expectancy. Findings provide valuable insights for identifying the communities where socio-culturally relevant outreach activities would increase testing rates and minimize public health consequences of environmental radon.

Abstract: Brazil harbors 13% of the world’s biodiversity, yet agricultural expansion threatens its biomes. Because 71% of the country is under rural properties, farmers are pivotal for conservation. In a rural municipality within the Atlantic Forest biome, we developed a citizen science project engaging students and farmers to monitor wildlife in forest remnants using camera traps. We documented the endangered Puma concolor and the invasive Sus scrofa, alongside other native fauna. Beyond new records, the initiative fostered dialogue, countered misinformation, and strengthened local partnerships, demonstrating how community-based science can reconcile biodiversity conservation with agricultural production.

Abstract: Microplastics (MPs) adsorb hazardous substances and are ingested by a wide range of organisms; therefore, indicators for managing their environmental concentrations are needed. Ideally, threshold values should be based on health impacts. However, the diversity of MPs and the complexity of their environmental behavior make it difficult to establish unified environmental concentration standards. In this study, we propose a threshold for the presence of MPs on sandy beaches based on “visual cleanliness,” derived from the amount of MPs that people find psychologically unacceptable. Three types of MPs were used: white polypropylene (PP), blue PP, and white polystyrene (PS; expanded polystyrene). For defining a narrow-range cleanliness threshold, volume concentration was more appropriate than mass concentration. White particles were expected to be less noticeable because they tended to blend with white shell fragments, which are ubiquitous on beaches. In contrast, blue particles were expected to be less acceptable owing to their rarity. However, we found no difference in unacceptability between white PP and blue PP. The threshold, defined as the volume concentration at which half of the respondents find MPs psychologically unacceptable, ranged from 1 to 2 cm3-MPs/m2-sand. Gender, age, travel time to the beach, and frequency of beach visits did not influence unacceptability. Strong concern about marine plastic pollution and experience in cleaning public spaces were associated with a tendency toward low tolerance for MP contamination on beaches.

Abstract: Hail events commonly affect the Western part of Catalonia, producing important damages mainly in Agriculture sector. The comparison of the weather radar data with the hail-pad registers at ground level allows to improve the diagnosis of hail in thunderstorms and to estimate the maximum hail size. However, there are some limitations using individual radar fields (such as the maximum reflectivity, the echo top or the density of the vertically integrated liquid). The current research has been conducted using quantiles of the vertical profiles of reflectivity for different times before, during and after the hailfall. First, it has been shown that these profiles relate to all the radar parameters. Second, it has been demonstrated that are less sensitive to anomalies of the radar functioning. The final purpose of the project is to develop a real-time tool that improves the surveillance task to discriminate between non-hail and hail thunderstorms and severe and non-severe hail occurrence.

Abstract: Throughout the second part of the Modern Era, leading researchers in astronomy, physics and applied statistics into astrophysics have brought a novel hypothesis, in which it was speculated that the Milky Way will experience a clash with another galaxy as a result of an intersection in their motion. Currently, such a statement is purely speculative in nature, although specific signs that such a hypothesis reflects real-world phenomena have started appearing, which cover seemingly increased frequencies and extents of planetary and stellar alignments within the Milky Way. Any occurrence of such a phenomenon may be probable due to increased electromagnetic and gravitational influences from outside the galaxy, which may hint at an existing approach of a different galaxy towards the Milky Way. It may be important to mention that potential effects of a multi-galactic crash would involve a general polarisation of natural and spatial phenomena, given that a multi-galactic interaction and clash would involve a sharp, unprecedented increase in the extent of electromagnetic and gravitational fluctuations of influences toward the Earth, which would affect all natural phenomena upon it, including the climate, the weather, human and animal psychology and wellbeing, as well as the effects of seas and oceans upon nearby shores. Furthermore, if the hypothesis in which major electromagnetic and gravitational influences toward specific, earthquake-prone geographical areas of the Earth would increase the probability of the occurrence of novel earthquakes and aftershocks in such areas is proven to be evidence-based, then a multi-galactic clash involving the Milky Way could also result in a sharp increase in both the frequency and extent of earthquakes throughout the Earth. Furthermore, it could be that the increasing number of people “bumping” into numerical and geometrical coincidences of symmetry at random (i.e. an increasing number of people bumping into “angel numbers”) is a sign of existing increases in electromagnetic and gravitational influences from the cosmos, which may very well reflect a scenario of an approaching multi-galactic interaction that may in a lower probability scenario even implicate the Milky Way (i.e. perhaps with Andromeda in approximately 4.5 billion years). According to Albert Einstein’s Theory of Relativity, time is not an absolute entity, but a relative measure that can be contracted or dilated depending on the observer’s perspective. Nonetheless, such relativistic effects are technically imperceptible on Earth, just as passengers aboard a high-speed train experience stability and consistency within the train, regardless of its external speed. Similarly, the inhabitants of the Milky Way could remain unaware of significant relativistic changes in galactic motion, whilst natural and cosmic phenomena within the galaxy would paradoxically accelerate in a manner reflective to the acceleration of time, thereby “transforming” the 4.5 billion years potentially into a much shorter time frame. If the Multiverse is real, then the same analogy applies for the inhabitants of the Universe. Furthermore, it may be important to observe whether any double-exponential growth in the speed of the approaching galaxies has been taken into consideration, which would broadly shorten the duration of 4.5 billion years and also change the relativistic states of time within the implicated galaxies - whilst keeping the internal measurements of time intact. Any real-world application of such an analogy may bring implications that deeply intersect scientific and philosophical research, perhaps even offering a hypothesis in which traditional cosmological models that suggest an 11-billion year process of evolution of physical matter, may not be mutually exclusive with theological narratives, such as a “Seven-Day Creation”. Some hypotheses have even proposed a paradoxical existence of a relative state of the speed of light, although empirical scientific evidence states that it is an absolute value, which constitutes the foundation of Albert Einstein’s research.Such hypotheses could nonetheless operate according to the Philosophical model of “destroy the Temple and rebuild It afterward”, potentially resulting in the creation of the most foundational type of a paradox in which the speed of light would be deemed as both relative and absolute, which could constitute “the paradox of all paradoxes”. Effects of any multi-galactic interaction implicating the Milky Way may accelerate the production of more stars and planetary systems, and preserve existing forms of life, given that a clash between Sagittarius Dwarf and the Milky Way may have resulted in the creation of the Solar System. Or, such an interaction deemed to probably occur, and in the distant future, could describe religious passages in which a phenomenon of “star falling” is mentioned, which could also involve an increasing number of asteroids falling upon Earth, given that fluctuations in gravitational influences could cause asteroids from the great belt nearby Jupiter to change their direction, leading to increased statistical probabilities that more asteroids will change their direction and be headed toward the Earth. Such a phenomenon could be deemed as “beyond monumental” in nature and even impact the state of time within the interacting galaxies, given its relative nature - potentially accelerating it considerably as the galaxies approach one another, in proportion with the level of fluctuations in electromagnetic influences toward the Solar System. Overall, the effects of a multi-galactic clash could either create more life or be catastrophic for human and animal life, potentially resulting in a phenomenon of unprecedented population loss in all life forms. Likewise, it may be important for research efforts to continue in order to determine whether the Milky Way is indeed in the course of experiencing an unprecedented intersection with a different galaxy, as well as for scientists, local and international authorities to devise plans of preparation for the purpose of precaution and ensuring that all guidelines of Health & Safety are met in case of any increased frequency and extent of natural disasters throughout the Earth, whilst keeping academic and scientific perspectives in an optimistic realm, based on the available evidence. This preprint also develops a speculative but explicitly testable applied mathematics-related hypothesis concerning large-scale galactic interactions and their possible influence on coarse-grained temporal observables for extended gravitational systems. While General Relativity uniquely defines proper time along individual worldlines, it does not uniquely prescribe how clock rates should be aggregated across spatially extended, self-gravitating domains such as galaxies when these systems are embedded in non-uniform external gravitational fields. Building on this conceptual gap, we introduce a phenomenological “structural time” for a bound system G, defined through a coarse-grained lapse factor χG​, and propose a minimal extension in which χG​ acquires a weak dependence on external tidal curvature invariants. The model is constructed covariantly using the electric part of the Weyl tensor and a dimensionless tidal-strength parameter ΛG ≡ TG / (ΩG2), where TG = sqrt (Eab * Eab) measures the external tidal field and ΩG​ is a characteristic internal dynamical frequency. The modified lapse takes the form χG = χG,GR * [1 + ε * ΛGp]−1/2, recovering the standard GR coarse-grained result when ε=0. Applied to the Milky Way – Andromeda system, the present-day tidal strength is strongly suppressed (ΛG ∼ 10−5 for fiducial parameters), implying that any effect on coarse-grained timekeeping is expected to be extremely small at current separations unless the coupling ε is unexpectedly large. A distinctive observational consequence is a fixed-axis quadrupolar anisotropy in timing or frequency measurements aligned with the dominant external mass distribution, providing a falsifiable template for pulsar timing arrays and high-precision optical-clock networks. The broader conceptual motivation of the paper is to explore whether system-level temporal observables, when defined through coarse-graining, could carry weak environmental dependence in galactic settings without modifying local tests of General Relativity. More broadly, the framework suggests that certain aspects of relativistic time may require refined interpretation when applied to spatially extended, self-gravitating systems rather than idealised point observers. In this sense, the present work does not modify the field equations of General Relativity, but instead proposes an operational extension in how relativistic time may be defined after coarse-graining across large astrophysical domains subject to external tidal curvature. Such a perspective may help in thoroughly expanding the application of relativistic concepts to galactic-scale dynamics while remaining fully consistent with the extensive body of experimental tests confirming General Relativity in local and weak-field regimes.

Abstract: The major share of available fresh water in India, almost 80 percent, is used for agricultural irrigation. The country is already facing water scarcity. Therefore, it is necessary to utilize and conserve water used for irrigation effectively so as to improve water productivity and achieve the objective of ‘more crop per drop’. Farmers are using seeds, fertilizers and pesticides in measured quantity but not the water which is an important and scarce resource. The main reason for this is lack of simple farmer’s friendly irrigation scheduling tools. In this context, adoption of scientific irrigation scheduling techniques can assist the farmers in effective utilization of the available water resource. In this study efforts were made to develop simple irrigation scheduling method and tool to optimize water use. A study carried out on a farmer’s field for irrigation of wheat crop for two years showed that there was 18 to 22 percent saving of water and 25 to 30 percent increase in water use efficiency in terms of yield per unit of water if measured quantity of water is supplied based on evaporative demand of crop as against traditional method of adhoc supply. In this study, crop irrigation requirement based on Cumulative Pan Evaporation (CPE) is used to apply irrigation water (IW). In addition to this IoT-based soil moisture sensor is installed in the root zone of the crop to monitor and give alert for scheduling irrigation at management allowable depletion (MAD) of soil moisture to avoid water stress. Based on the study, Data driven irrigation scheduling APP is developed which is easy to use by the farmers.

Abstract: A wave-current coupled mathematical model (MIKE21) was adopted in this paper to simulate the hydrodynamic changes (tidal level, tidal current, wave field) in the coastal waters surrounding the reclamation project of the Eastern Urban Economic Belt in Shantou, before and after the project implementation. The results show that: (1) Tidal level: After reclamation, the tidal level in the project area changed slightly within a range of 2~4 cm; the offshore low tidal level was 1~2 cm lower than pre-project. Shantou Port waterway’s high tidal level increased by 2~4 cm and low tidal level decreased by 2~4 cm, mainly caused by channel dredging. (2) Tidal current: The flood current velocity in the reclamation area increased with a changed direction; during ebb tide, the ebb current velocity increased at Xinjin and Waisha River estuaries, decreased along the reclamation coast, and increased in southeastern waters of Laiwu Island (flow direction unchanged). The reclamation had little impact on the waterway’s tidal current. (3) Wave field: Pre-project, natural horn-shaped coastline and barrier shoals induced nearshore wave refraction/breaking, with significant wave height of 0.0~0.2 m (nearshore) and 0.4~0.8 m (offshore). Post-reclamation, the straight artificial coastline and local sand extraction pits reduced wave energy loss, but the absence of shoals and topographic changes led to wave energy concentration in the reclamation front, with H₁/₃ increasing by 0.1~0.3 m (most notably at the two estuaries, rising from 0.0~0.2 m to 0.2~0.4 m). The research results reveal the influence mechanism of the reclamation project on the hydrodynamic environment of the coastal waters around the Eastern Urban Economic Belt in Shantou, and provide technical support for the feasibility evaluation of the construction project and the marine environmental risk management and control of the Eastern Urban Economic Belt in Shantou.

Abstract: Rapid advances in deep-space exploration are drawing increasing attention from geode-sists and creating an urgent demand for effective management and visualization of deep-space object information. This paper presents a comprehensive study on methods for managing and visualizing small celestial bodies’ “orbit–shape–field” spatial information, including geometric shape, orbital simulation and gravitational fields. We develop an in-tegrated solution that combines a backend spatial database, a web frontend and a virtual reality (VR) frontend. On the backend, we design and implement a database to catalog heterogeneous small-body information efficiently, where partitioned tables are adopted to support scalable storage, fast querying and convenient updates. On the web frontend, Spacekit.js and Cesium.js are integrated to simulate coordinated solar-system motion of planets, comets and asteroids (both rotation and revolution) while enabling rapid loading and rendering of gravitational vector fields. On the VR frontend, we build a standalone Unreal Engine 5 application that renders orbits with spline curves consistent with the web results and supports cooperative multi-body motion in immersive exploration. Finally, performance tests are conducted to recommend VR hardware configurations and practical data-loading scales for smooth gravitational-vector rendering and interaction. These methods support analysis workflows and have potential value for deep-space science.

Abstract: Climate extremes are critical constraints on agricultural productivity, particularly in tropical regions experiencing rapid agricultural expansion. This study examines spati-otemporal changes in soybean yields in response to droughts and heatwaves across highly productive municipalities in Brazil from 1989 to 2020. By integrating high-resolution meteorological data, satellite-derived evapotranspiration estimates, and municipal-level crop yield data, we apply standardized drought indices (Standardized Precipitation Index, Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index, and Warm Spell Duration Index) to identify climate-yield relationships across Brazil’s heterogeneous agroclimatic zones. Results reveal a marked increase in the frequency and intensity of compound drought–heat events, particularly in the Matopiba frontier, where yield sen-sitivity to hydroclimatic stress is highest. Spatial models confirm that short-term dry events, rather than long-term mean climate shifts, are the dominant drivers of recent yield variability, with significant spatial spillover effects observed across municipalities. The findings underscore the growing vulnerability of rainfed agriculture in Brazil and highlight the critical role of seasonal timing, crop phenology, and regional climate re-gimes in mediating climate risk. This study provides empirical evidence linking com-pound extremes to agricultural performance and offers a scalable framework for early warning systems and climate-resilient policy design.

Abstract: Dili, the capital of Timor-Leste, is experiencing increasing freshwater demand driven by population and economic growth. It totally relies on groundwater from the Dili Intergranular Aquifer System for supply. There is very little conceptual understanding of the system and little-to-no monitoring data. Understanding the hydrostratigraphy, recharge and surface-groundwater interactions, groundwater levels and abstractions are essential for sustainable groundwater use and management. These are the aims of this study, and a numerical model was created with such purpose. The model included scenarios to assess how the aquifer could react to future increases in groundwater abstraction. Trial and error calibrated the steady-state model, and a comparison of simulated results with observed heads revealed good agreement (RMS <10%). Transient scenario simulations demonstrate that recharge (direct, river infiltration, and mountain-block processes) is a key component of the water balance and plays a critical role in aquifer sustainability under increasing groundwater abstraction. Aquifer storage is projected to decrease significantly by 2054, with the magnitude depending on the range of recharge and abstraction rates considered. The model improves conceptual hydrogeological knowledge of the basin, highlights future work needed, and provides a robust basis for sustainable groundwater management and water risk mitigation in Dili.

Abstract: Harmful algal blooms (HABs) caused by Karenia brevis (K. brevis) present a persistent ecological and public health challenge across coastal Florida. This study develops a regionally integrated machine learning framework to predict weekly K. brevis bloom occurrence using environmental data from both the Peace and Caloosahatchee Rivers, combined with coastal bloom records from Southwest Florida and Tampa Bay to enhance the spatial and temporal continuity of the response record. A Random Forest classifier was trained on a multi-decadal dataset incorporating river discharge, nutrient concentrations (total nitrogen and total phosphorus), wind forcing, sea surface temperature, salinity, and sea surface height anomalies as a proxy for Loop Current variability. The model achieved strong predictive performance on a chronologically withheld test set, with an overall accuracy of ~90%, balanced accuracy of 87.6%, and high precision and recall for bloom events. Bloom timing and persistence were captured with strong agreement during ongoing bloom periods, while non-bloom conditions were identified with low false-positive rates. Feature-response analyses indicated that bloom probability increased most sharply under moderate discharge and nutrient conditions, with diminished sensitivity at higher extremes. Learning curve analysis demonstrated robust training performance and stable generalization, with validation accuracy plateauing near 84%, suggesting a data-limited ceiling on forecast skill. By aggregating nutrient inputs across multiple watersheds and integrating spatially aligned bloom observations, this study demonstrates the utility of multi-source machine learning frameworks for regional-scale HAB prediction. The results support the development of early warning tools and provide a reproducible foundation for evaluating how combined watershed loading and physical forcing are associated with K. brevis bloom occurrence in complex estuary systems with watershed and coastal coupling.

Abstract: Industrial emissions and legacy contamination from metallurgical activities can constrain sustainable land use by degrading soil quality and limiting vegetation establishment. This study combines a site-based contamination assessment with an early-stage plant tolerance screening to inform nature-based restoration planning in Central Kazakhstan. Soils were collected around three metallurgical complexes and analysed for heavy metals; exceedance relative to maximum permissible concentrations (MPC) was used to prioritise contaminants of concern. Seven locally occurring plant species were then screened in controlled Petri-dish assays using metal salt solutions (Pb, Zn, Cu, Cr, Cd and Ni), and germination percentage, germination dynamics, seedling shoot length and a growth inhibition index were quantified. Soil results showed elevated metal loads with frequent MPC exceedance, supporting the selection of these metals for biological screening. Plant responses were strongly species-specific: Brassica juncea and Medicago sativa maintained comparatively higher germination and early growth across treatments, whereas Suaeda salsa, Artemisia absinthium and Trifolium repens exhibited very low germination. These findings provide an evidence-based shortlist of candidate species for subsequent soil-based trials (including uptake and stabilisation assessment) and support risk-informed revegetation strategies for contaminated industrial landscapes.