ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201903.0058.v1
Subject: Business, Economics And Management, Finance Keywords: climate change; Ethiopia; climate finance, Climate-Resilient
Online: 5 March 2019 (11:36:43 CET)
Achieving and sustaining stability for economic growth remain the greatest and most immediate development challenge for Ethiopia. For natural resource-based economies especially maintaining stability and growth depends fundamentally upon climate change adaptation and mitigation. The close links between climate and Ethiopia’s economy are reflected by the strong relationship between GDP growth rate and rainfall variability. A study by the World Bank projects that unless steps to build resilience are effective, climate change will reduce Ethiopia’s GDP growth by between 0.5 and 2.5% each year. Along with the challenges posed by climate change, a number of development opportunities are emerging in response to climate change which includes access to international climate finance. The international response to climate change in the form of external development finance plays a key role to support developing countries in their transition to a low-carbon, climate-resilient and sustainable development pathway. Therefore, this study was conducted to assess the flow and the overall contribution of climate finance to sustainable development in Ethiopia. Specifically, focused on outlining how climate finance is currently reconciled in the existing Ethiopian climate change governance and its contribution to sustainable development. In order to achieve these objectives, data were collected from different sources. The Rio Marker methodology applied to review climate financial flow over the 5 year period. The result reveals that, climate change is central to development agendas despite its recent emergence in the mainstream, with various initiatives under way to combat or reduce its impacts in Ethiopia. In addition, the amount of climate finance from the developed countries to Ethiopia shows some fluctuation for the past five years. In general, the overall flow of climate finance mostly targeted climate adaptation actions which spur and enable the transition towards climate-resilient growth and sustainable development.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202103.0082.v1
Subject: Biology And Life Sciences, Biochemistry And Molecular Biology Keywords: Climate Change; Climate-Smart; Climate-Smart Agroforestry; Agriculture
Online: 2 March 2021 (11:47:29 CET)
This study assessed stakeholders’ perception on the prospects and challenges of practising Climate–Smart Agroforestry in the Asunafo North Municipal Assembly in the Ahafo Region in Ghana. Interviewer administered questionnaires were used to collect cross-sectional data from 250 cocoa, food and cash crop farmers drawn from four (4) communities using simple random sampling. And nine (9) in-depth interviews were also conducted to elicit key stakeholder perspectives. Stakeholders also held the view that Climate-Smart Agroforestry encourages the use of stress-tolerant crop varieties, increase income, improve soil productivity, diversify farm produce, urges the reduction of input supply and recommends the timely usage of the inputs, ensures better market system for farm produce, cost of production decreases during the practice of Agroforestry, agro-ecological functions and Climate-Smart Agroforestry can best help adapt to the threats of climate change in the agriculture sector. The challenges included insecure tree ownership right, fast-declining soil fertility and long maturity period of Agroforestry trees, land tenure issues, illegal tree logging (chainsaw operators) on farms, lack of practical understanding of the approach, inadequate knowledge and information and inadequate supportive facilities in the study area. The study recommends further studies on the existing forest policy and legislations and its implications on the practice and adoption of Climate-Smart Agroforestry in respond to climate change in the area.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202310.1436.v1
Subject: Environmental And Earth Sciences, Atmospheric Science And Meteorology Keywords: climate normal; climatology; satellite remote sensing; clouds and radiation; climate change; climate data records; climate monitoring; essential climate variables; climate anomalies; WMO
Online: 23 October 2023 (11:06:23 CEST)
The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) recommends that the most recent 30-year period, i.e. 1991-2020, shall be used to compute climate normals of geophysical variables. A unique aspect this recent 30-year period is that the satellite-based observations of many different essential climate variables are available during this period, thus opening up new possibilities to provide a robust, global basis for the 30-year reference period in order to allow climate monitoring and climate change studies. Here, using the satellite-based climate data record of cloud and radiation properties, CLARA-A3, for the month of January between 1981 to 2020, we illustrate the difference between climate normal, as defined by guidelines from WMO on calculations of 30-yr climate normals, and climatology. It is shown that this difference is strongly dependent on the climate variable in question. We discuss the impacts of the nature and availability of satellite observations, variable definition, retrieval algorithm and programmatic configuration. It is shown that the satellite-based climate data records show enormous promise in providing climate normal for the recent 30-year period (1991-2020) globally. We finally argue that the holistic perspectives from the global satellite community should be increasingly considered while formulating the future WMO guidelines on computing climate normals.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202109.0093.v1
Subject: Environmental And Earth Sciences, Atmospheric Science And Meteorology Keywords: WRF; Modelling; Climate; Climate Extremes; LIDAR
Online: 6 September 2021 (12:57:23 CEST)
Storm Ophelia made landfall over Ireland as an extra-tropical storm on the morning of the 16th of October 2017. The storm caused major power outages, lifted roofs, caused coastal flooding in Ireland, and resulted in the loss of three lives. A model’s capability to forecast extreme weather events such as Storm Ophelia is of utmost importance and now with a changing climate, it becomes more important to improve and enhance model forecasting capability. The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model V3.9 has been configured for the Irish domain and this study presents a preliminary evaluation of the Model during Storm Ophelia. Simulated wind speed and direction were compared with hourly remote sensing (lidar) and in-situ (wind speed and wind direction at 10m) observations at the coastal site of Mace Head Atmospheric Research Station on the West coast of Ireland (53.33◦ N, 9.90 49 ◦ W). The model simulation has generally small biases in the simulated wind speed and wind direction during this case study. The model also realistically simulated the magnitude and geographical distribution of the wind speed and wind direction observed during Ophelia.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202102.0180.v2
Subject: Environmental And Earth Sciences, Atmospheric Science And Meteorology Keywords: climate; climate change; water; hydrology; climatology.
Online: 3 March 2021 (10:12:40 CET)
We revisit the notion of climate, along with its historical evolution, tracing the origin of the modern concerns about climate. The notion (and the scientific term) of climate has been established during the Greek antiquity in a geographical context and it acquired its statistical content (average weather) in modern times, after meteorological measurements had become common. Yet the modern definitions of climate are seriously affected by the wrong perception of the previous two centuries that climate should regularly be constant, unless an external agent acted. Therefore, we attempt to give a more rigorous definition of climate, consistent with the modern body of stochastics. We illustrate the definition by real-world data, which also exemplify the large climatic variability. Given this variability, the term “climate change” turns out to be scientifically unjustified. Specifically, it is a pleonasm as climate, like weather, has been ever changing. Indeed, a historical investigation reveals that the aim in using that term is not scientific but political. Within the political aims, water issues have been greatly promoted by projecting future catastrophes while reversing the true roles and causality directions. For this reason, we provide arguments that water is the main element that drives climate and not the opposite.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201608.0058.v1
Subject: Environmental And Earth Sciences, Environmental Science Keywords: climate risk; climate change; public perception
Online: 6 August 2016 (04:59:47 CEST)
Even though Greece is considered a vulnerable region in terms of climate hazards, public perception and attitude do not always identify climate change as an important environmental area of concern, especially when compared to socio-economic issues. The key issue of this paper is to investigate and analyse public perception in Greece as regards to climate change risk. Through a questionnaire survey this paper analyses trends that exist, peoples’ opinion and awareness with regards to climate risk and how willing they are to change current lifestyle, to pay or to act to minimize or to prevent the risk. Conventional wisdom of this paper is to highlight factors that influence individual perception and point out drivers of behavior change that can support efficiently future adaptation plans.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202310.2031.v1
Subject: Social Sciences, Behavior Sciences Keywords: climate change anxiety; climate change despair; climate change hope; climate change perception; pro-environment behavior; political orientation
Online: 31 October 2023 (09:09:13 CET)
The main objective of this paper is to assess pro-environmental behavior, climate change perception, anxiety, hope and despair in different political orientations. Specific aims included to validate all the instruments; to assess whether the factor structure of the scales were valid across political orientations; to evaluate their reliability; to assess differences concerning age, gender and political orientation; to know the variables that explain pro-environment behavior; and to evaluate the moderating role of climate change perception, despair and hope in the relationship between climate change anxiety and pro-environmental behavior. Confirmatory factor analysis (CFAs), multi-group CFAs (to measurement invariance), multiple linear regressions and moderations were performed. Results showed that pro-environment behavior and climate change hope achieved the four levels of invariance across different political orientations; climate change anxiety achieved the three first levels of invariance; climate change perception and climate change despair achieved configural invariance. Climate change anxiety personal experience, climate change perception total, reality and consequences present higher values in left political orientation that in right or center. Climate change anxiety variables contribute most to explaining pro-environmental behaviors. Hope, despair and climate change perception consequences moderate de relationship between climate change anxiety and pro-environment behavior. These results open up new avenues of investigation, namely, to understand why high levels of anxiety lead to more pro-environment al behaviors.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202305.0110.v2
Subject: Environmental And Earth Sciences, Sustainable Science And Technology Keywords: Climate change; perception; Climate smart agriculture; Adoption
Online: 12 May 2023 (11:31:38 CEST)
Abstract: Climate change is one of the main barriers for agricultural production and productivity globally. Hence, understanding farmers’ adoption level of CSA practices and determinants is of highly important for policy decisions. Consequently, the study's purpose was to assess adoption level of multiple CSA practices and determinants of climate-smart agriculture practices in the study area. The study was conducted in Welmera Woreda, Oromia Region, Ethiopia. From the Woreda, three kebeles were identified, and 306 respondent farmers were selected. A cross-sectional household survey, focus group discussion, and key informant interviews were used. Multivariate probit model was used to examine adoption determinants of multiple climate-smart agriculture practices. According to the result, Conservation agriculture, integrated soil fertility management, and crop diversification are the most commonly practiced CSA techniques in the study area. Demographic factors result indicated that being male as compared with female farmers, has positive and significant effect on crop diversification and improved livestock feed and feeding practices. Age of farmers significantly and negatively affecting the probability of adoption of improved soil fertility management practices and crop diversification. However, it affects the adoption of agroforestry practices positively and significantly. Based on the result of economic factors, having relatively large farm land size significantly increases the adoption of conservation agriculture, improved soil fertility management, crop diversification, improved livestock feed and feeding practices, and postharvest technology practice. Better farm income increases the likelihood of uptake of improved livestock feed and feeding. Having a large number of livestock positively influences adoption of conservation agriculture and having access to credit services positively influences the implementation of agroforestry, crop diversification, and postharvest technology. In addition, institutional factors such as access to agricultural extension service and training found that significantly and positively influences the adoption of crop diversification; access to participation on farmers’ field day similarly significantly and positively influence the adoption of both conservation agriculture and improved soil fertility management practice. Awareness creation for farmers and experts about climate change and including location specific CSA practices in to agricultural program is crucial.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202007.0091.v1
Subject: Business, Economics And Management, Economics Keywords: E-tourism; Climate; Climate Change; Tourism Industry
Online: 5 July 2020 (17:04:13 CEST)
In the recent century, the tourism industry and within it the tourism economy are one of the most important and fundamental sectors of engaged business. E-tourism can be used as a dynamic tool in up to date areas of informative information and tourism marketing will be considered as a suitable field for the tourism industry. The aim of this study was to investigate the relationship between climate change and the amount of revenues from the tourism industry relying on a tool called e-tourism, and informing and providing services through this way so that Iran can achieve a greater share of export of a single-product oil economy combined with economic growth and sustainable development goals. The method of this research is descriptive-analytical.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201710.0029.v1
Subject: Environmental And Earth Sciences, Environmental Science Keywords: Climate change; HBV; climate projection; Ethiopian highland
Online: 5 October 2017 (13:50:02 CEST)
This study assessed the impact of climate change on water availability and variability in two subbasins in the Upper Blue Nile Basin of Ethiopia. Downscaled future climate data from HadCM3 of A2 (medium-high) and B2 (medium-low) emission scenarios were compared to the observed climate data for a baseline period (1961 to 1990). The emission scenario representing the baseline period was used to predict future climate and as input to a hydrologic model to estimate the impact of future climate on the streamflow at three future time horizons 2020 - 2045, 2045 - 2070 and 2070 - 2100. Results suggest that medium-high emission scenario best represents the local rainfall and temperature pattern. With A2 scenario, daily maximum/minimum temperature will increase throughout the future time horizons. The minimum and maximum temperature will increase by 3.6oC and 2.4oC, respectively, towards the end of the 21st century. Consequently, potential evapotranspiration is expected to increase by 7.8%, though trends in annual rainfall do not show statistically meaningful trends between years. A notable seasonality was found in the rainfall pattern such that dry season rainfall amounts are likely to increase and wet season rainfall to decrease. The hydrological model indicated that the local hydrology of the study watersheds will be significantly influenced by climate change. Overall, at the end of the century, streamflow will increase in both rivers by up to 64% in dry seasons and decrease by 19% in wet seasons.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201707.0008.v1
Subject: Environmental And Earth Sciences, Environmental Science Keywords: climate policy; Nepal; NAPA; LAPA; climate experts
Online: 5 July 2017 (04:51:31 CEST)
The government of Nepal (GoN) has developed and implemented climate policies, plans and frameworks such as NAPA, National Climate Change Policy, LAPA and currently in the process of developing National Adaptation Plans (NAPs). These policies and plans are in different states of its implementation with diverse opinions and perceptions of the stakeholders. The paper has explored these opinions and experiences of climate experts in Nepal on state of climate policies, inter-linkages, roles and responsibilities of ministries/departments, important factors and subjective indicators for effective implementation of the policies. Altogether 30 experts responded the questionnaire sent via the email, LinkedIn and Skype Interview in the 1st phase of Delphi research technique. The experiences of these experts range from 2-30 years representing government, non-government sectors, media and independent experts. As per most of the experts interviewed, the policies and plans are progressing in strategic direction with national and local priorities. The LAPA is the pioneer framework to address the local climatic issues, originated in Nepal. However, lack of clarity on roles/responsibilities and coordination among the ministries/departments; clear mechanisms for implementation of these policies; lack of sensitization, decentralization and delegation of finance and technologies; capacity of the stakeholders are the major challenges identified.
Subject: Environmental And Earth Sciences, Atmospheric Science And Meteorology Keywords: Bibliometric Analysis; Scientometrics; Human Influence on Climate; Natural Control of Climate; Climatic and Non-climatic Effects on Living Organisms; Improving Climate Monitoring; Climate Variability; Climate Models; CO2
Online: 3 May 2021 (17:01:28 CEST)
This article presents and discusses analytical data on the scientific publication record from 1910 to 2020 on two topics: "climate" and "climate change/global warming/climate emergency". The goal is to visualize how the publication record on these two topics has evolved over time, from different classification perspectives (year, country, source and organization). Three hypotheses are tested using data collected from Web of Science and various graphical representations of the data. It is found that research output related to the Earth’s contemporary changing climate overtook that of general climate research in 2011, and the publication ratio has been expanding in the last decade. There are significant differences in the publication countries and sources between the two topics, and conversely less significant differences in terms of organizations publishing these works. Differentiation factors that affect the level of research output and engagement on the climate challenge include: island versus landlocked nations, specialized versus general scientific journals, academic versus institutional organizations. The future of the publication records is discussed, such as the emergence of new terms to refer to the climate challenge, such as “climate emergency”.
REVIEW | doi:10.20944/preprints202306.0645.v1
Subject: Social Sciences, Law Keywords: climate change; Paris Agreement; human rights; IPCC; climate policy; Climate Litigation; precautionary principle
Online: 8 June 2023 (12:21:26 CEST)
The German Constitutional Court’s climate verdict provides a re-interpretation of liberal- democratic core concepts and is highly relevant for liberal constitutional law in general – including EU and international law. The verdict accepts human rights as intertemporal and globally applicable; it applies the precautionary principle to these rights and frees them from the misleading causality debate. However, the court fails to address the most important violations of human rights, and it categorised climate policy as a greater threat to freedom than climate change. And the court does not make it clear that the Paris 1.5-degree limit implies a radically smaller carbon budget. Furthermore, little attention has so far been paid to the fact that the ruling implies an obligation for more EU climate protection, especially since most emissions are regulated supranationally. To be effective, the EU emissions trading system demands a reform, which should go well beyond the existing EU proposals to enable societal transformation to sustainability.
BRIEF REPORT | doi:10.20944/preprints202309.2067.v1
Subject: Social Sciences, Other Keywords: Climate communication; storytelling; public engagement; climate action; sustainability
Online: 30 September 2023 (10:19:00 CEST)
For achieving climate targets, public engagement is key. Climate communication can play an important role here. Telling regional stories of successful climate action seems a promising form of climate communication: It may convey a feeling of ‘So this is what climate action looks like – and it is people like you and me who are starting to take action.’ This transformative research project (1) formulates hypotheses on what could make such local climate stories effective, (2) then identifies, produces and disseminates stories in the region of Konstanz, Germany, following a rapid prototyping approach, and (3) analyzes the effect of the stories by using focus groups. So far, two prototyping series of filmic story production have been completed in 2022/2023 and some initial insights were derived: Potential protagonists seem willing to tell their stories, and the stories have a potential to inspire people. Technical film quality is relevant. The stories must be selected and told carefully (who is portrayed, which actions are interpreted as success, through which channels are the stories shared), in order to create resonance with different target groups. Next steps are continuation of film production prototyping, a broader sharing of stories, and thorough impact research by focus groups.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202305.0881.v1
Subject: Biology And Life Sciences, Life Sciences Keywords: Climate change; livestock farmers; rural livelihoods; climate education.
Online: 12 May 2023 (04:33:58 CEST)
Climate change mainly affects production and consumption systems, such as: food, livelihoods, production (e.g., reduced milk production), water, and land use. The role of local knowledge has been recognized as important for decision-making under changing circumstances. This study was conducted in the northern part of the Ecuadorian Andes using a sample of 170 dairy-cattle-producing households. The objectives were: i) to characterize the rural livelihoods of dairy cattle farmers, ii) to evaluate access to climate information and perceptions of climate change, and iii) to determine the relationship between livelihoods and perceptions of climate change. Significant differences were identified between the groups evaluated in relation to the dairy farmers’ livelihoods. In addition, 85.29% of the respondents mentioned that climate information is important, but 67.83% do not trust the sources of information. It was found that there is a significant relationship between the level of education and age with the variables of climate change perceptions. This combined knowledge allows people to promote agri-environmental and educational policies to achieve climate literacy at a rural level.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202301.0228.v1
Subject: Environmental And Earth Sciences, Atmospheric Science And Meteorology Keywords: open source; climate indices; emissions scenarios; climate projections
Online: 12 January 2023 (13:49:09 CET)
The paper presents the open source tool climdex-kit which includes utilities to compute, analyze and visualize climate indices based on the input data, target domain and temporal extent defined by the user. It is intended to support researchers as well as practitioners and decision makers to derive, handle and interpret meaningful information for climate change studies and sectoral applications. It currently includes the computation of 30 indices based on temperature and precipitation, describing both mean and extreme climate conditions, and it is designed to work with climate model projections. The tool is written in Python and integrates utilities from the well-established Climate Data Operators (CDO) and NetCDF Operators (NCO) libraries. The specific utilities for selecting, aggregating and visualizing data are thought to help users to produce tailored results improving understanding and communication of future climate change. In order to show the functionalities of the package as well as its potential integration in regional climate services, climdex-kit was applied to an ensemble of downscaled climate model projections up to 2100 for the region Trentino – South Tyrol (north-eastern Italian Alps). The projections for a selection of indices accounting for extreme temperature and precipitation conditions were derived and different visualization choices discussed. The package climdex-kit is developed in a way that allows users to implement additional routines for calculating other indices as well as for easily adapting the routines to handle with different data types and spatio-temporal targets defined by the specific application. Effective climate services can in fact be developed only if flexible tools and customizable climate information are integrated with a clear understanding of data features and limitations.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202211.0021.v1
Subject: Environmental And Earth Sciences, Environmental Science Keywords: children; climate change; climate literacy; education; sustainable development
Online: 1 November 2022 (06:59:44 CET)
Despite the impact that climate change is having on our planet and considering its consequences for future generations, much of the academic literature focuses on adolescent and adult percep-tions, giving little relevance to children's perceptions. Children's voices have the potential to in-fluence public opinion, which may in turn determine the direction of a new policy on the cli-mate crisis. In this context, it is urgent that we understand how children perceive this problem. This quantitative study was based on the application of 245 questionnaires to children aged be-tween 9 and 13 years old from five schools in north-eastern Portugal, more specifically in the region of Trás-os-Montes. To collect the data, we used a questionnaire with 26 questions, being 24 of closed response, Likert type, one of them open response, and one multiple choices. The da-ta were statistically treated using SPSS software. The results show that most of the children ex-press concern about the study's potential problem. However, they show some doubts and a lack of knowledge about some of the themes. We found differences between the two study cycles, with children in the 6th grade having a higher average in the understanding of the phenomenon, as well as the level of education of the parents being positively correlated with a more ecocen-tric posture. The female students also showed a slightly more ecological posture, i.e., an eco-friendlier posture. From the results obtained, we can open new paths for future research and contribute to the definition of policies and educational practices since the school has the respon-sibility to cooperate in the production of values, attitudes, and pro-environmental behaviours.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201808.0383.v1
Subject: Business, Economics And Management, Marketing Keywords: tourism demand, climate change, climate volatility, GARCH model
Online: 21 August 2018 (15:48:14 CEST)
As climate is not only a valuable tourism resource but also a factor influencing travel experience, estimating climate change can provide implications to sustainable development of the tourism industry. This study develops Climate Volatility Index (CVI) using GARCH model and estimates the relationship between CVI and Japanese tourism demand for Korea using a tourism demand model, based on data from January 2000 to December 2013. Time lag is applied based on a decision making process regarding travel destinations. The result shows that an increase in volatility of climate change leads to a decrease in tourism demand.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201802.0072.v1
Subject: Environmental And Earth Sciences, Atmospheric Science And Meteorology Keywords: Climate Variability; Food Security; Climate Change Adaptation; Malnutrition
Online: 8 February 2018 (15:59:16 CET)
Climate variability and change has been found to be one of the factors that affect economies leading to food insecurity in various parts of the world. Kenya is no exception. This study looks at how climate variability has contributed to food insecurity in Kisii County, Kenya. The objectives of this study is therefore to, (i) to examine the rainfall and temperature trends in Kisii County for a period of approximately 30 years, (ii) to examine the effect of climate variability on food production and (iii) to assess the perception of local farmers on weather and climate information, (iv) to evaluate the coping strategies adopted at to bridge the gap on food deficit at different household level and (v) to assess the nutritional status of children and the elderly. The study was conducted in two sub-counties of Kisii County; Marani and Bomachoge Chache. The data used was mainly rainfall and temperature data from meteorological stations and sample data gathered from selected groups. The study population comprised of children between 6 months and 59 months, household heads, elderly people and agricultural officers. Purposive sampling was used to select agricultural officers while multistage sampling was used to select respondents at household level. Data was collected by use of a pre-tested questionnaire. The MUAC tape was used to collect nutritional status of children while BMI data was obtained from elderly people. Mann Kendall statistic was used to determine whether the trend of rainfall and temperature observed is significant while Chi-square test was used to determine whether the coping strategies observed varied significantly at household level. From the analysis, rainfall has not shown any significant change in Kisii County while temperature trend has been significantly increasing over the years at 95% confidence level. This could explain the observed reduction in river levels. Analysis of crop production and price trends of major food crops in Kisii County showed a decreasing trend of food production leading to increase in price over the years. This meant that farmers could not produce enough to take them to the next harvesting season making farmers to adopt different coping strategies at household level which differed significantly according to Chi-Square test. Malnutrition status of both elderly people above 59 years and children between 6-59 months were similar with 23% of both children/elderly being severely malnourished/malnourished. This study has only looked at climatic factors such as rainfall and temperature. Other aspects such as depth of underground water, ph level of soil and the effects of land fragmentation also need to be looked at. This study is important to both farmers in choosing the right crop to plant, and policy makers and planners in formulating the best mitigation and intervention strategies for Kisii County food insecurity problem. This will further contribute to national efforts towards achievement of vision 2030.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201712.0107.v1
Subject: Environmental And Earth Sciences, Atmospheric Science And Meteorology Keywords: climate change; cryosphere; Arctic; permafrost; sea ice; tipping elements; climate impacts; climate policy; Paris agreement
Online: 15 December 2017 (12:51:43 CET)
Arctic feedbacks will accelerate climate change and could jeopardise mitigation efforts. The permafrost carbon feedback releases carbon to the atmosphere from thawing permafrost and the sea ice albedo feedback increases solar absorption in the Arctic Ocean. A constant positive albedo feedback and zero permafrost feedback have been used in nearly all climate policy studies to date, while observations and models show that the permafrost feedback is significant and that both feedbacks are nonlinear. Using novel dynamic emulators in the integrated assessment model PAGE-ICE, we investigate nonlinear interactions of the two feedbacks with the climate and economy under a range of climate scenarios consistent with the Paris Agreement. The permafrost feedback interacts with the land and ocean carbon uptake processes, and the albedo feedback evolves through a sequence of nonlinear transitions associated with the loss of Arctic sea ice in different months of the year. The US’s withdrawal from the current national pledges could increase the total discounted economic impact of the two Arctic feedbacks until 2300 by $25 trillion, reaching nearly $120 trillion, while meeting the 1.5 °C and 2 °C targets will reduce the impact by an order of magnitude.
REVIEW | doi:10.20944/preprints202101.0619.v1
Subject: Environmental And Earth Sciences, Atmospheric Science And Meteorology Keywords: climate smart agriculture; crop productivity; climate change; Pfumvudza; Zimbabwe
Online: 29 January 2021 (12:40:06 CET)
Concerns of food and environmental security have increased enormously in recent years due to the vagaries of climate change and variability. Efforts to promote food security and environmental sustainability often reinforce each other and enable farmers to adapt to and mitigate the impact of climate change and other stresses. Some of these efforts are based on appropriate technologies and practices that restore natural ecosystems and improve the resilience of farming systems, thus enhancing food security. Climate smart agriculture (CSA) principles, for example, translate into a number of locally-devised and applied practices that work simultaneously through contextualised crop-soil-water-nutrient-pest-ecosystem management at a variety of scales. The purpose of this paper is to review concisely the current state-of-the-art literature and ascertain the potential of the Pfumvudza concept to enhance household food security, climate change mitigation and adaptation as it is promoted in Zimbabwe. The study relied heavily on data from print and electronic media. Datasets pertaining to carbon, nitrous oxide and methane storage in soils and crop yield under zero tillage and conventional tillage were compiled. Findings show that, compared to conventional farming, Pfumvudza has great potential to contribute towards household food security and reducing carbon emissions if implemented following the stipulated recommendations. These include among others, adequate land preparation and timely planting and acquiring inputs. However, nitrous oxide emissions tend to increase with reduced tillage and, the use of artificial fertilizers, pesticides and herbicides is environmentally unfriendly.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201811.0245.v1
Subject: Biology And Life Sciences, Ecology, Evolution, Behavior And Systematics Keywords: physical variables; climate; highland lichens; effect of climate change
Online: 9 November 2018 (11:18:37 CET)
Lichens are traditionally divided into short “crustose”, intermediate “foliose” and tall “fruticose” types, a practice that hides a growth continuum. Substrate, temperature and water are thought to affect vertical growth, but such factors are difficult to measure, because, for example, the water actually available to lichens does not match rainfall patterns or even ground water levels. To reliably assess the effect of those factors, I recorded temperature, moisture, and substrate in and under individual terricolous lichen colonies in 60 fixed quadrats on April, August, October, and December of 2015 (Cerro de la Muerte, Costa Rica, 9°33′N; 83°45′W). The measurements were taken inside the colonies themselves (rather than on the general environment), covering an annual cycle of the relatively simple páramo habitat, where animals and vegetation have less impact than in lower ecosystems. The hypotheses were that lichens would grow taller on softer, warmer, and moister ground; on the Caribbean versant; and on the rainy season. Results matched the hypotheses, with one exception: lichens on soft ground were not taller than those on rock. Caribbean colonies were, on the average, 7 cm taller than those on the drier Pacific versant. Physiologically available water seems to be the main determinant of lichen vertical growth: more water means taller lichens and greater protection from climatic change for both the lichens and their microcommunities.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202310.1031.v1
Subject: Environmental And Earth Sciences, Ecology Keywords: Agroforestry; Climate-Smart Agriculture; Climate Change Adaptation; Australia; Pacific Island Countries; Climate Variables; Crop Production; Sustainability
Online: 17 October 2023 (09:37:21 CEST)
This academic paper explores the synergistic potential of Agroforestry systems and Climate-Smart Agriculture (CSA) in enhancing climate change adaptation strategies. Focusing on Australia and Pacific Island Countries, the study delves into the pivotal role of these approaches in mitigating the impacts of changing climate variables on agricultural production. By analysing important climate variables, their potential alterations, and their subsequent effects on crop production, the paper advocates for a holistic and forward-thinking approach to sustainable agriculture in the face of climate change.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202306.1668.v1
Subject: Environmental And Earth Sciences, Atmospheric Science And Meteorology Keywords: Clouds; Remote Sensing; Climate change; Climate Data Records; Essential Climate Variables; Cloud properties; Stability and trends
Online: 23 June 2023 (11:49:48 CEST)
40 years of cloud observations are available globally from satellites allowing derivation of climate data records (CDRs) for climate change studies. The aim of this study is to investigate how stable these cloud CDRs are and whether they qualify stability requirements recommended by the WMO’s Global Climate Observing System (GCOS). We also investigate robust trends in global total cloud amount (CA) and cloud top temperature (CTT) that are significant and common across all CDRs. The latest versions of four global cloud CDRs, namely CLARA-A3, ESA Cloud CCI, PATMOS-x and ISCCP-HGM, are analysed. This assessment finds that all three AVHRR based cloud CDRs satisfy even the strictest GCOS stability requirements for CA and CTT when averaged globally. While CLARA-A3 is most stable in global averages, PATMOS-x offers the most stable CDR spatially. While we find these results highly encouraging, there however remain large spatial differences in the stability of and across the CDRs. All four CDRs continue to agree on the statistically significant decrease in global cloud amount over the last four decades, although this decrease is now weaker compared to the previous assessments. This decreasing trend is stabilizing or even reversing in the last two decades; the latter is seen also in MODIS-Aqua and CALIPSO GEWEX datasets. Statistically significant trends in CTT are observed in global averages in the AVHRR-based CDRs, but the spatial agreement in the sign and the magnitude of the trends is weaker compared to those in CA. We also present maps of Common Stability Coverage and Common Trend Coverage that could provide a valuable metric to carry out an ensemble-based analysis of the CDRs.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201903.0143.v1
Subject: Environmental And Earth Sciences, Atmospheric Science And Meteorology Keywords: perceived-impact of climate change; climate change adaptation; ordered probit regression; determinants of climate change impact
Online: 13 March 2019 (09:31:37 CET)
This paper identifies the characteristics of the farmer that affect the degree of farmer’s perceived-impact of climate change (CC). We use data from the Indonesian Rice Farm Household survey consisting of 87,330 farmers. An ordered probit regression model was used to estimate the effect of each variable on the degree of perceived-impact of CC. The results of this study confirm the previous empirical studies. Several variables that have been identified as having a positive effect on farmer adaptation practices such as farmer education, land tenure, irrigation infrastructure, cropping system, chemical fertilizer application, access to extension services and participation in farmer group affect the degree of CC perceived-impact negatively. However, a different result was found in the estimation of the gender variable. We found that female farmer has a higher resilience toward CC than the male farmer does. Furthermore, the female farmer has a more positive perception about future farming conditions than the male does. Finally, we suggest that the implementation of national adaptation policy should prioritize more to the farmer with insecure land tenure and utilize and expand the channel of agricultural extension services to deliver the planned adaptation policy.
COMMUNICATION | doi:10.20944/preprints202112.0183.v1
Subject: Environmental And Earth Sciences, Environmental Science Keywords: Climate; lightning; atmosphere
Online: 10 December 2021 (13:23:29 CET)
Atmospheric lightning is an outcome of extreme complex physical processes occurring in the atmosphere. Cloud-to-ground (CG) lightning is considered as a natural disaster. Understanding the importance of CG lightning and implication of the lightning phenomena, Global Climate Observing System (GCOS), world meteorological organization, in its report in the year 2016, introduced the lightning as an Essential Climate Variable (ECV). The present report uses the Lightning Detection Sensor Network (LDSN) established by the National Remote Sensing Centre, Indian Space Research Organization over India to generate the Lightning ECV. A use case of these ECVs are also showcased for an event in Bihar, India, when 42 deaths were reported at locations with large number of CG occurrences.
REVIEW | doi:10.20944/preprints202105.0338.v1
Subject: Environmental And Earth Sciences, Atmospheric Science And Meteorology Keywords: climate; weather; extreme
Online: 14 May 2021 (14:04:25 CEST)
The understanding of weather and climate extremes provides academics, decision makers, international development agencies, nongovernmental organizations and civil society the necessary information for monitoring and giving early warning to prevent or minimize the risks associated with weather related hazards. Different researches were carried out to provide vital information that will further enhance the assessment of vulnerability and its impacts. Lack of proper understanding of weather and climate extremes was realized to be responsible for the huge and devastating losses that could have being averted or minimized over the past decades. Different countries and institutions have put in place a number of ways to increase sensitization and awareness of weather extremes. This became necessary in order to reduce the losses associated with these extremes both on local and regional scales.
REVIEW | doi:10.20944/preprints202105.0139.v1
Subject: Environmental And Earth Sciences, Atmospheric Science And Meteorology Keywords: Climate, Datasets, Extremes.
Online: 7 May 2021 (10:40:02 CEST)
The impact of climate extremes on the society has been of great concern to environmental scientist and policy makers. The destructive consequence attributed to natural hazards associated with climates extremes has been estimated to billions of dollars across the globe. To carry out a robust and effective researches that help to minimize or prevent the loss, detailed datasets of the past, present and future are needed. This will help to give an accurate prediction and early warning which is necessary for the policy making.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202307.0714.v1
Subject: Social Sciences, Safety Research Keywords: Organizational climate; Safety climate; Multiple mediation; Construction personnel; Random sample
Online: 12 July 2023 (03:06:04 CEST)
Organizational climate is the ascribed psychological meanings and significance associated with the procedures, policies and practices that are recognized and rewarded in the workplace, and hence mediates the effects of environmental stimuli on individuals’ response. Safety climate is a specific organizational climate, i.e., organizational climate for safety. Previous research claimed that organizational climate provides foundation for safety climate, but without elaboration on the foundational mechanisms. This paper attempts to fill up this knowledge gap. As organizational climate is a multi-dimensional phenomenon, this paper chooses two dimensions, i.e., perceived organizational support (POS) and participative decision-making (PaDM), for illustrative purposes. Drawing on an interactive approach to forming climate perceptions, this paper introduces two interactive constructs, i.e., leader-member exchange (LMX) and team member exchange (TMX), and establishes a multiple mediation model depicting the foundational effect of organizational climate on safety climate. A random sample of Hong Kong based construction personnel is used to validate the model. The results show that both POS and PaDM are positively associated with perceived safety climate, both LMX and TMX fully mediate the effect of PaDM on safety climate, and only LMX partially mediates the effect of POS on safety climate. This study sheds light on the foundational effects of organizational climate on safety climate. POS can improve the quality of reciprocal exchange about safety matters between construction personnel and their supervisors, and hence raise construction personnel’s awareness of the priority of safety. PaDM can improve the quality of reciprocal exchange about safety matters vertically and horizontally, and hence have construction personnel aware the importance of safety. In practice, this paper suggests that project managers timely recognize and reward construction personnel’s contribution, genuinely cares about their well-being, and take their suggestions seriously in making decisions. In this way, the quality of both vertical and horizontal exchange about safety matters improves, and a sound and positive safety climate ensues.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202306.0606.v1
Subject: Environmental And Earth Sciences, Atmospheric Science And Meteorology Keywords: Awash Basin; Climate change; climate extreme; CMIP6 models; Heat wave
Online: 8 June 2023 (08:45:18 CEST)
Globally, the intensity and irregularity of weather and climate extremes are increasing due to climate change. In Ethiopia, the occurrence of extreme events has been increasing, reporting severe impacts on environment which led to losses of lives and livelihood of societies. In this study, Heat Wave Magnitude Index daily (HWMId) was used to analysis heat wave magnitude in the Middle Awash Basin of Ethiopia. Gauge data obtained from Ethiopian Meteorological Institution (EMI) for 1981-2022 period and the future projection was taken from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) under two socioeconomic pathways (SSP 2 and SSP 5) scenarios. The findings clearly showed that the area aggregated annual temperature anomaly increasing each year, 2015 was one of the warmest year on record with an anomaly of +1.8 °C. Severe to extreme heat wave recorded particularly during the last 10 years. For the future projection, under SSP 2-4.5 forcing scenario, the annual average air temperature projected to be warmer, which increasing 1.7 ℃ to 1.8 ℃ during mid-century and 2.3 ℃ to 2.4 ℃ end of century. Meanwhile, for SSP 5-8.5 forcing, the projection indicated an increment of 2.2 ℃ to 2.5 ℃ under mid-century and 4.4 ℃ to 4.8 ℃ end of century. Concerning the severity of heat wave, extreme to very extreme heat wave projected under SSP 2-4.5 forcing scenario and supper extreme heat wave projected under SSP 5-8.5 forcing scenario, respectively. The increase in extreme events may have a negative impact on health, water availability and food security. Therefore, the result of this study are essential for making wise decisions and for developing suitable strategies for climate change adaptation and mitigation that could minimize the risk of unusually extreme weather events.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201807.0068.v1
Subject: Environmental And Earth Sciences, Environmental Science Keywords: cultural heritage; preventative conservation; climate change; mitigation; adaptation; climate modelling
Online: 4 July 2018 (10:36:51 CEST)
There is a range of local weather and climate-related factors that contribute to the degradation of cultural heritage buildings, structures and sites over time. Some of these factors are influenced by changes in climate and some of these changes manifest themselves though a speeding up of the rate of degradation. It is the intention of this paper to review this situation with special reference to the Nordic Countries, where typical trends resulting from climate change are shorter winters and increased precipitation all year round. An attempt is made to initially draw up a classification of materials and structures relevant to cultural heritage that are affected, with a proposed numeric scale for the urgency to act. The intention is to provide information on where best to concentrate cultural heritage site preservation resources in the future.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201706.0100.v2
Subject: Environmental And Earth Sciences, Environmental Science Keywords: biodiversity; climate change; climate refugia; forest conservation policies; forest conversion
Online: 3 August 2017 (06:11:35 CEST)
A scenario-based approach to the impacts of land use and climate change can help in identifying future policy directions. This study models the impacts of different land use and climate change scenarios on the forest ecosystems of South Korea to identify national-scale forest policy options. Climatically suitable forest areas for 1,031 climate vulnerable plant species were identified for current time and for 2050. We calculated change in species richness under four climate projections. We built forest conversion models and created four 2050 forest scenarios: (1) forest loss continues at current rates; (2) similar loss, but with conservation in areas with suitable future climates; (3) a reduction of loss by 50%; and (4) a combination of preservation and overall reduction of loss by 50%. We then crossed the forest conversion models with the climate-driven change in species richness, and categorized current forest areas into four classes to offer forest policy alternatives. By deploying the scenarios which preserve climatically suitable forests, the average species richness where forests converting to other land uses reduced significantly. We suggest conserving forests with suitable climates for biodiversity conservation and the establishment of forest plantations targeted to areas where species richness will decline based on our results.
REVIEW | doi:10.20944/preprints202310.0297.v1
Subject: Biology And Life Sciences, Horticulture Keywords: Climate change; stress factors; Vitis spp.; extreme climate events; sustainable agriculture
Online: 5 October 2023 (14:04:08 CEST)
Keywords: Climate change, stress factors, Vitis spp., extreme climate events, sustainable agriculture
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202309.0537.v1
Subject: Business, Economics And Management, Economics Keywords: Climate change; urban climate resilience; regional differences; fiscal expenditure; urbanization rate
Online: 7 September 2023 (09:44:23 CEST)
Climate change represents a prevalent challenge confronted by humanity, and with cities being one of the regions most heavily impacted by such change, enhancing their climate resilience is paramount in adapting to and mitigating the associated risks and losses. This article evaluates the climate resilience of 270 major cities in China by creating an urban climate resilience indicator system centered on exposure, vulnerability, and resilience. The article analyses the spatial and temporal evolution trend of climate resilience in Chinese cities, as well as the source of regional differences using Kernel density analysis and the Dagum Gini coefficient decomposition. The article then explores the influence of financial investments on urban climate resilience, considering the moderating effect of urbanization rate.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202208.0476.v2
Subject: Business, Economics And Management, Economics Keywords: Climate Variability; Climate Change; Food Security; Zero Hunger; System GMM; PCSE
Online: 31 August 2022 (03:22:49 CEST)
According to the World Food Programme (WFP), the projected increase in the human population stands at 2 billion people by 2050. At the same time, world food production is witnessing a declining trend over recent years, and 690 million (8.9%) of the world's population are already in severe starvation. Climate variability and climate change impacts on food security are very eminent today. For this reason, this study explored the real effects of climate variability and change on food security in Africa by applying the system Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) and the Panel Corrected Standard Errors (PCSEs) estimators on data from 2001–2018 for 38 selected African countries. The findings reveal that higher amounts of precipitation positively influence food security along two dimensions (food availability and utilization). Hotter temperatures negatively impact food availability and utilization. However, it aids food accessibility in Africa. Similarly, carbon dioxide emissions improve food availability and are harmful to food accessibility and food utilization in Africa. Consequently, the effects of climate variability and change on food security in Africa are undesirable, thereby putting the continent at risk of food insecurity over the long run. Given these findings, the study made appropriate recommendations for policy change to address the negative effects of climate variability and change on food security in Africa.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201902.0166.v1
Subject: Environmental And Earth Sciences, Atmospheric Science And Meteorology Keywords: Climate information services; pilot projects; climate risk management, systematic literature review
Online: 18 February 2019 (16:53:45 CET)
Many pilot-based initiatives have been developed to promote awareness and use of climate information services among vulnerable smallholder farmers in Africa through million-dollar investments. However, despite their experimental nature, these pilot projects have been successful in raising participating farmers’ awareness and use of climate information services and they can inform transferrable good practices. Through a systematic literature review approach, this review sought to understand ways in which these past pilot projects have contributed to climate risk management in the context of smallholder farming and the factors that led to their success. Results showed that climate information services main contribution to climate risk management has been through facilitating farm level decision making. Factors that led to success of the pilots include: use of downscaled information; building institutional partnerships to add value to climate information; involving farmers through the co-designing and co-developing process; face-to-face way of communication; embedding pre-seasonal workshops in the activities of local institutions for sustainability; using diversity of communication channels to enhance reach among others. These factors can be borrowed as good practices to inform future efforts focused on increasing adoption of climate information services among a wider population beyond pilot project reach.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201810.0542.v1
Subject: Environmental And Earth Sciences, Geophysics And Geology Keywords: Climate sensitivity; scale invariance; long-range persistence; climate variability; emergent constrains
Online: 23 October 2018 (15:59:17 CEST)
Earth's global surface temperature shows variability on an extended range of temporal scales and satisfies an emergent scaling symmetry. Recent studies indicate that scale invariance is not only a feature of the observed temperature fluctuations, but an inherent property of the temperature response to radiative forcing, and a principle that links the fast and slow climate responses. It provides a bridge between the decadal- and centennial-scale fluctuations in the instrumental temperature record, and the millennial-scale equilibration following perturbations in the radiative balance. In particular, the emergent scale invariance makes it possible to infer equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) from the observed relation between radiative forcing and global temperature in the instrumental era. This is verified in ensembles of Earth system models (ESMs), where the inferred values of ECS correlate strongly to estimates from idealized model runs. For the range of forcing data explored in this paper, the method gives best estimates of ECS between 2.3 and 3.4 K.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201804.0055.v1
Subject: Engineering, Civil Engineering Keywords: IDF curves; urban drainage; regional climate model; bias correction; climate changes
Online: 4 April 2018 (08:26:21 CEST)
Drainage systems are usually dimensioned for design storms based on intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) curves of extreme precipitation. For each location, different IDF curves are established based on local hydrological conditions. Recent research shows that these curves also vary with time, and should be updated with recent data. The purpose of this study is to evaluate IDF curves obtained from precipitation simulations from the Eta RCM, comparing them with IDF curves obtained from data of a rainfall station. Climate models can be a useful tool for assessing the impacts of climate changes on drainage systems, referring precipitation forecasts. In this study, the Eta RCM was forced by two global climate models: HadGEM2-ES and MIROC5. The bias of the precipitation data, generated by RCM models, was corrected using a Gamma distribution. The Juqueriquerê River Basin, in the cities of Caraguatatuba and São Sebastião, São Paulo State, Brazil, was chosen as a case study. The results show a good correlation between the IDF curves of simulated and observed rainfall for the control period (1960-2005), indicating the strong possibility of using the Eta RCM precipitation forecasts for 2007 - 2099 to establish future IDFs thereby, taking into account climate changes in urban drainage design.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202211.0008.v1
Subject: Environmental And Earth Sciences, Environmental Science Keywords: migrations; climate change; Colombia
Online: 1 November 2022 (01:52:52 CET)
The international literature shows a polarised debate on the impacts of climate change on migration. Some studies find a positive linkage, whereas others find a negative one. It is, without a doubt, a complex process better considered case-specific. There is no available information on the relationship between climate change and migration in Colombia, despite past research exploring each of these subjects independently. This study intends explicitly to investigate this linkage gap. Consequently, this paper's essential contribution is that it builds a bridge between climate change scenarios and migratory science for the first time in Colombia. Despite their limitations, the theoretical and methodological framework suggested by IOM (2009b pp. 86, Section B, Chapter II) is demonstrated in this study to be very valid since it provides a methodology to predict where future flows will occur (based on past evidence). The methodological approaches of SLA and NELM explained in section A in the IV Chapter are also valuable for analysing and approaching this study's conclusions. The primary conclusions of this study indicate that the "Coffee Region," Valle, and Atlantic (or Caribbean Coast) provinces that mainly send emigrants to Spain and the US are the key internal regions responsible for most of the international migration from Colombians. The same areas are especially vulnerable to the impacts of upcoming climate change in the A1B scenario produced by the IDEAM (2010) for 2040 and 2100. Thus, future flows of migrants are expected from these regions (2040-2100). However, issues such as visa requirements or the costs associated with migration constitute international barriers to this flow. The sensitivity of these regions can also be associated with internal migration flows, more armed conflict, and forced displacement in a cyclical process. Theoretically, a resurgence of Colombia's armed conflict and displacement due to climate change can be expected. However, the need for empirical studies in Colombia to support this analysis is imperative and is the most crucial recommendation arising from this study.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202208.0047.v1
Online: 2 August 2022 (08:04:43 CEST)
The paper will analyze the pressures and vulnerabilities of the consolidated city from two perspectives: technical and social. Some design and pragmatic experiences conducted by the author in his teaching and research experience first at the Department of Urbanism of TUDelft in the Netherlands and currently at the PDTA Department of La Sapienza University of Rome will be introduced and analyzed. In the first research activity, whose case study is Rotterdam, all urban vulnerabilities related to climate change will be analyzed while in the second one, conducted in Viterbo, the vulnerability related to the hull of social inclusion, poor accessibility and psycho-social stress that plague our established cities will be treated. The two areas of study, different in size and spatial governance tools, are comparable because they allow deciphering the city's risks through lines of intervention that could serve as best practices and serve the urban planning disciplinary update also allowing to define a reflection on morphology and fabrics and on the shape of the city itself. Both teaching and research activities in which the author is involved allow the topic of urban vulnerability to be addressed with a broad exploratory scope that, in the final stage, hypothesizes design intervention on the neighborhood scale, identified as the most appropriate to provide plausible climate and social adaptation and mitigation responses.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202103.0340.v2
Subject: Biology And Life Sciences, Anatomy And Physiology Keywords: climate change; grapevine; phenophase
Online: 16 March 2021 (12:04:14 CET)
The impact of warming on the phenology of grapevine (Vitis vinifera L.) in conditions of Central Europe was evaluated at the locality of Dolné Plachtince in the Slovakian wine region. In Welschriesling and Pinot Blanc model varieties there was observed onset of phenophases as defined in BBCH scale over 1985–2018 period. Based on the data obtained there was evaluated the influence of average and average maximum temperature and GDD on the onset of phenophases. The results observed indicate earlier budburst by 5–7 days, earlier beginning of flowering by 7–10 days, and earlier berry softening by 18 days, and harvest dates advanced by 8–10 days on average. In both varieties there was found the highest influence of the average monthly temperature in March on budburst, the highest influence of the average monthly temperature and the average maximum temperature in May on the beginning of flowering, and the highest, statistically significant influence of the average maximum temperature in June on grape veraison. The warming observed in moderate climate conditions of northern wine regions in Central Europe (Slovakia) has not caused yet the changes in the grapevine phenology stable enough to require serious adaptation measures.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202007.0559.v1
Online: 23 July 2020 (12:30:24 CEST)
We have modelled the energy consumption of prototype and real buildings under present and future climatic conditions with the EnergyPlus model to develop a better understanding of the relationship between changing climate conditions and energy demand. We have produced detailed meteorological information with 50 meters of spatial resolution through dynamical downscaling process combining regional, urban and computational fluid dynamics models which include the effects of the buildings on urban wind patterns. The city of Madrid has been chosen for our experiment. The impact on energy demand and their respective economic cost are calculated for year 2100 versus 2011 based on two IPCC climate scenarios, RCP 4.5 (stabilization of emissions) and RCP 8.5 (not reduction of emissions). Findings show that climate change will have a significant impact on the energy demand for buildings. Space heating demand will be increased by the RCP 4.5 and cooling demand will be increased for the RCP 8.5 in the analysed buildings.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202311.1720.v1
Subject: Public Health And Healthcare, Public, Environmental And Occupational Health Keywords: climate change; positive and negative affect; pro-environmental behavioural intentions; climate anxiety
Online: 28 November 2023 (08:15:55 CET)
The study aimed to investigate the effect of climate change exposure on affect and pro-environmental behavioural intentions in a randomised controlled trial. An online survey was completed by 100 adult participants and included measures of affect and pro-environmental behavioural intentions pre- and post-exposure. Participants were randomly allocated to a group that saw a climate change video (n=55) or a group that saw a non-climate change video (n=45). The findings showed were that participants in the climate change group showed a significant increase in negative affect and pro-environmental behavioural intention scores post-video exposure compared to the non-climate change video group. This suggests that climate change video exposure negatively influences affect but also potentially increases the intention to act pro-environmentally. These findings have the potential to support policies and societal change, however further investigation into the type of contents, actual behaviour change, and impacts on diverse populations (e.g., minority groups) is needed that influences pro-environmental behaviours is required. Furthermore, to achieve a greater impact, future research should be conducted measuring actual pro-environmental behaviour change, including with those from diverse populations.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202309.1311.v1
Subject: Public Health And Healthcare, Primary Health Care Keywords: green podiatry; health; climate emergency; climate change; healthcare; greenhouse gases; sustainability; environment
Online: 20 September 2023 (04:48:03 CEST)
Introduction The climate crisis is essentially a public health crisis. Response is imperative to prevent economic and social crises associated with the growing burden of climate impacts on human health and the health care sector. Green Podiatry Pillars By adopting the three pillars of Exercise, Evidence, and Everyday changes, podiatrists can contribute to more sustainable health and health care. Discussion Educating our patients to use their feet for low carbon active transport, eliminating interventions not supported by evidence, and reducing fossil fuel driven supply chains and energy use, are three impactful measures that all podiatrists, and indeed, all health and medical personnel, need to adopt. The avoidable suffering, enormous and costly use of resources for diabetic foot disease, is a scourge that must realise its preventable potential. It is too late, too costly, too polluting, and too sad, to continue to direct health care and research efforts and budgets, to an expensive modifiable diabetes disease process, potentiated by poor food and physical inactivity. Affected patients require skilled support, to avert such chronic disease processes, often not of their making. Conclusions Healthcare contributes 5 to 8% of green house gases (GHG), and non-communicable diseases (NCD) are increasing, so healthcare must lead on primary health. As citizens and health professionals, we must advocate for better community health, and educate our patients. Future Directions All health and medical personnel need to consider planetary health and sustainable healthcare within their daily work. Healthcare must act to address climate change, and realise benefits for people and planet.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202305.1886.v1
Subject: Environmental And Earth Sciences, Other Keywords: India; Urban; Climate Vulnerability; Disaster resilience; Climate hazards; Vulnerability Assess-ment framework
Online: 26 May 2023 (07:59:12 CEST)
There has been an increase in the inefficiencies of urban infrastructure services in Indian cities as a result of rapid and unplanned urbanization (UNDP, 2017). Indian cities have grown multidimensional as a result of massive industrializa-tion and technological spread backed by globalization impacting the early 2000. It has transformed the city fabric and the associated challenges. Therefore, an Urban Climate Vulnerability Assessment (UCVA) is needed to identify, target and recognize climate vulnerable urban cities, sectors, or populations. The UCVA framework consists of seven broad thematic indicators — physical, hazard, social, demographic, financial provisioning, infrastructure and admin-istration vulnerabilities, and their sub indicators to represent the climate vul-nerability of Indian cities. This assessment is for seven Indian cities namely Delhi, Mumbai, Chennai, Bengaluru, Srinagar, Shillong, and Ahmedabad which were selected based on their geographical location, population, ecosystem types and hazards/ hazard trends to understand and assess the respective vul-nerabilities. The Assessment is done through a comprehensive approach using a robust and predictive qualitative framework. It helps in determining respec-tive risks and in improving community resilience to the climate hazards by in-tegrated planning and improved preparedness. UCVA can support as a deci-sion support mechanism for devising suitable mitigation and adaptation strategies for building urban climate resilience.
REVIEW | doi:10.20944/preprints202110.0403.v2
Subject: Environmental And Earth Sciences, Atmospheric Science And Meteorology Keywords: Nature-based solutions; climate change adaptation; climate change vulnerability; social-ecological systems
Online: 20 September 2022 (12:35:06 CEST)
Nature-based solutions (NbS) - working with and enhancing nature to address societal challenges - are increasingly being featured in climate change adaptation policy and plans. While there is growing evidence that NbS can reduce vulnerability to climate change impacts in general, there is a lack of understanding on the mechanisms through which this can be achieved, particularly in the Global South. To address this, we analyse 85 nature-based interventions in rural areas across the Global South, and factors mediating their effectiveness, based on a systematic map of peer-reviewed studies encompassing a wide diversity of ecosystems, climate impacts, and intervention types. We develop and apply an analytical framework of people’s social-ecological vulnerability to climate change, in terms of six pathways of vulnerability reduction: social and ecological exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity. Most cases (95%) report a reduction in vulnerability, primarily by lowering ecosystem sensitivity to climate impacts (73% of interventions), followed by reducing social sensitivity (52%), reducing ecological exposure (36%), increasing social adaptive capacity (31%), increasing ecological adaptive capacity (19%) and/or reducing social exposure (14%). An analysis of mediating factors shows that social dimensions are equally important as technical factors in NbS to achieving equitable and effective outcomes. Attention to the distinct social and ecological pathways through which vulnerability is reduced helps to harness the multiple benefits of working with nature in a warming world.
CONCEPT PAPER | doi:10.20944/preprints202001.0339.v1
Subject: Social Sciences, Decision Sciences Keywords: decision-making; change; behavior; climate change; deforestation; social norms; lobbyist, climate denier
Online: 28 January 2020 (10:44:27 CET)
Leaders are failing to respond to the climate and environmental urgency the world is facing. A growing action gap, clearly visible during the recent CoP25, has been fueled by leaders' inability to respond efficiently to the mounting threats scientists—and increasingly society—are concerned about. Bridging this gap and tackling the growing polarization within society calls for leaders to accept the full complexity of the issues the world is facing. This will require them to question their understanding of these geopolitical affairs and embrace the dynamics at play, and avoid falling back on simplistic cognitive models. We propose a heuristic to convey the pathways available to decision-makers to make their way out of the current inaction impasse. By breaking free of this deadlock, a social transition will have the potential to take place, helping us to avoid crossing the climate system tipping points.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201902.0195.v1
Subject: Environmental And Earth Sciences, Atmospheric Science And Meteorology Keywords: Colombian climate complexity; climate extremes; Tsallis' non-extensive statistical mechanics; universal categories
Online: 21 February 2019 (04:20:01 CET)
We evaluate the complexity of Colombian climate from extreme behavior of gauge temperature and precipitation, using the the novel Tsallis' non-extensive entropy principle based on physical information through the q-index. We find the spatial structure of non additive universal categories (q-index) and compare with some complex systems with the potential to have some degree of dynamical affinity. Our results evidence the great dynamical variability of regional climate expressed in the large range of values of $q$-index, and the high degree of non-extensitivity for both temperature and precipitation.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201809.0528.v1
Subject: Environmental And Earth Sciences, Atmospheric Science And Meteorology Keywords: GCM; RCM; CMIP5; CORDEX; climate change; climate model selection; upper Indus basin
Online: 27 September 2018 (04:01:11 CEST)
This study focusses on identifying a set of representative future climate projections for the Upper Indus Basin (UIB). Although a large number of GCM’s predictor sets are nowadays available in the CMIP5 archive, the issue of their reliability for specific regions must still be confronted. This situation makes it imperative to sort out the most appropriate, single or small-ensemble set of GCMs for the assessment of climate change impacts in a region. Here a set of different approaches is adopted and applied for a step-wise shortlist and selection of appropriate climate models for the UIB under two RCPs: RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5, based on, a) range of projected mean changes, b) range of projected extreme changes, and c) skill in reproducing the past climate. Furthermore, because of higher uncertainties in climate projection for high mountainous regions like the UIB, a wider range of future GCM climate projections is considered by using all possible future extreme scenarios (wet-warm, wet-cold, dry-warm, dry-cold). Based on this two-fold procedure, a limited number of climate models is pre-selected, out of which the final selection is done by assigning ranks to the weighted score for each of the mentioned selection criteria. The dynamically downscaled climate projections from the Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) available for the top-ranked GCMs are further statistically downscaled (bias-corrected) over the UIB. The downscaled projections up to year 2100 indicate temperature increases ranging between 2.3 °C and 9.0 °C and precipitation changes that range, from a slight annual increase of 2.2% under the drier scenarios, to as high as 15.9% for the wet scenarios. Moreover, for all scenarios, the future precipitation will be more extreme, as the probability of wet days will decrease, while, at the same time, the precipitation intensities will increase. The spatial distribution of the downscaled predictors across the UIB also shows similar patterns for all scenarios, with a distinct precipitation decrease over the south-eastern parts of the basin, but an increase in the northeastern parts. These two features are particularly intense for the “Dry-Warm” and the “Median” scenarios over the late 21st century.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201802.0109.v2
Subject: Environmental And Earth Sciences, Atmospheric Science And Meteorology Keywords: Climate change; energy system sizing; sustainable urban planning; urban climate; urban design.
Online: 22 February 2018 (13:34:10 CET)
Building more energy efficient and sustainable urban areas that will both mitigate the effect of climate change and adapt for the future climate, requires the development new tools and methods that can help urban planners, architect and communities achieve this goal. In the current study, we designed a workflow that links different methodologies developed separately, to derive the energy consumption of a university school campus for the future. Three different scenarios for typical future years (2039, 2069, 2099) were run as well as a renovation scenario (Minergie-P). We analyse the impact of climate change on the heating and cooling demand of the buildings and determined the relevance of the accounting of the local climate in this particular context. The results from the simulations showed that in the future there will a constant decrease in the heating demand while for the cooling demand there will be a significant increase. It was further demonstrated that when the local climate was taken into account there was an even higher rise in the cooling demand but also that the proposed renovations were not sufficient to design resilient buildings. We then discuss the implication of this work on the simulation of building energy consumption at the neighbourhood scale and the impact of future local climate on energy system design. We finally give a few perspective regarding improved urban design and possible pathways for the future urban areas.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201806.0408.v1
Subject: Environmental And Earth Sciences, Geophysics And Geology Keywords: surface albedo; remote sensing; geostationary satellites; climate data records; essential climate variables; near real-time; operational processing; climate; land surface modeling
Online: 26 June 2018 (10:31:10 CEST)
Land surface albedo determines the splitting of downwelling solar radiation into components which are either reflected back to the atmosphere or absorbed by the surface. Land surface albedo is an important variable for the climate community and therefore was defined by the Global Climate Observing System (GCOS) as an Essential Climate Variable (ECV). Within the scope of the Satellite Application Facility for Land Surface Analysis (LSA SAF) of EUMETSAT, a near-real time (NRT) daily albedo product was developed in the last decade from observations provided by the SEVIRI instrument on board the geostationary satellites of the Meteosat Second Generation (MSG) series. In this study we present a new collection of albedo satellite products based on the same satellite data. The MSG Ten-day ALbedo (MTAL) product incorporates MSG observations over 31 days with a frequency of NRT production of 10 days. The MTAL collection is more dedicated to climate analysis studies compared to the daily albedo that was initially designed for the weather prediction community. For this reason, a homogeneous reprocessing of MTAL was done in 2018 to generate a Climate Data Record (CDR). The resulting product is called MTAL-R and has been made available to the community in addition to the NRT version of the MTAL product which has been available for several years. The retrieval algorithm behind the MTAL products comprises three distinct modules: one for atmospheric correction, one for daily inversion of a semi-empirical model of the bidirectional reflectance distribution function, and one for monthly composition that also determines surface albedo values. In this study the MTAL-R CDR is compared to ground surface measurements and concomitant albedo products collected by sensors on-board polar-orbiting satellites (SPOT-VGT and MODIS). We show that MTAL-R meets the quality requirements if MODIS or SPOT-VGT are considered as reference. This work leads to 14 years of production of geostationary land surface albedo products with a guaranteed continuity in the LSA SAF for the future years with the forthcoming third generation of European geostationary satellites.
COMMUNICATION | doi:10.20944/preprints202310.0421.v1
Subject: Environmental And Earth Sciences, Atmospheric Science And Meteorology Keywords: Early warning; El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO); Climate services, weather, and climate information
Online: 8 October 2023 (07:28:20 CEST)
The brief paper utilises Zimbabwe as a case study to discuss the effects of El Nino in Southern Africa. It offers potential adaptation and mitigation measures for farmers to prepare for the forecasted El Nino-influenced rainy season 2023/24 and the future. To reduce climate and weather hazards connected with El Nino, the brief report suggests anticipatory action methods be applied in southern Africa, using Zimbabwe as a case study. To protect farmers' livelihoods and enhance drought readiness for the forthcoming agricultural seasons, the paper suggests a degree of strategic, tactical, and operational decision-making that the agriculture industry should adhere to. It emphasised the significance of providing farmers with knowledge and advice regarding drought and heat stress, including cultivating crop varieties and livestock and sufficient fire safety precautions. The brief paper calls to advocate for anticipatory action to avert El Nino in Southern Africa.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202309.1453.v1
Subject: Social Sciences, Political Science Keywords: carbon neutrality; climate policy; climate politics; fairness under the Kyoto Protocol; Keidanren; Japan
Online: 21 September 2023 (07:24:15 CEST)
This study contextualises the background of Japan’s “carbon neutrality and net-zero” (CNN) policy announced in October 2020, thereby identifying important changes in the country’s climate policy between 1990 and 2020. Using four research questions, four main findings were extracted from a narrative technique-based analysis of Japan’s policy documents related to CNN. The following are the findings: [i] the framing of climate change as a “climate crisis” by influential Japanese climate stakeholders was a key motivation for Japan to formally announce its CNN policy in October 2020, [ii] pressure from the international community and the political leadership of the Yoshihide Suga administration are essential factors that led the Japanese government to change its stance and announced this policy, [iii] Japan unintentionally delayed announcement of the policy until 2020 due to the concern among Japanese climate stakeholders about the problem of fairness in Kyoto Protocol’s emission reduction targets, and [iv] this delay was also due to Keidanren’s (or business sector) consistent opposition to the introduction of regulatory schemes. These results emerge for the first time in a study of Japan’s CNN politics, particularly in terms of the broader context of climate politics. Finally, we offer a possible explanation for Suga’s deliberate announcement of the CNN policy. This opens up space for future research to complement our study by providing important indicators on the trajectory of this important policy.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202309.1396.v1
Subject: Engineering, Architecture, Building And Construction Keywords: wooden houses; habitability and climate change; climate change adaptation; safe housing; sustainable housing
Online: 21 September 2023 (05:45:50 CEST)
The prefabricated houses supply in Chile was analyzed from web platforms, public market, social media, and Internal Revenue Service, using indicators according to regulatory compliance, complexity, and sustainability attributes, which are essential in advancing to industrialization, and climate change adaptability. The 80% is concentrated in construction, and manufacturing companies, 83% of them are legally registered,with the capacity of meeting technical requirements. To delve deeper into this, 54% has low level, 35% medium level, and 11% high level. The sustainability was measured in 5 levels: 2.7% (1), 37,5% (2), 58,6% (3), 1,1% (4) and 0% (5), which is the highest one. This attribute was determined as the weakest one. The proposed evaluation, based on indicators by attribute, is objective and relevant to consideration since there is still a lack of capacity to supply the housing deficit, and there is not attributes associated to security in habitability to address the climate change, and environment threats, with a lack of action by the state to promote this productive sector, therefore focusing more in provide products, than taking responsibility of the site, not advancing to become a real state agency, which could be improved if management, and regulation were incorporated.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202306.1458.v1
Subject: Environmental And Earth Sciences, Atmospheric Science And Meteorology Keywords: extreme climate events; multi extreme event composite grade index (MXCI); climate change; China
Online: 20 June 2023 (15:19:27 CEST)
Based on the daily observation data of 2254 meteorological stations in China from 1961 to 2021 after homogenization and correction, the extreme value analysis method that combines relative threshold and absolute threshold was used to identify extreme climate events in the mainland of China, namely extreme high temperature, extreme low temperature, extreme drought, extreme precipitation and extreme typhoon events. The frequency and linear variation trends of individual extreme events in the past 60 years were investigated. On this basis, the multi extreme events composite risk grade index (MXCI) was constructed, which can objectively reflect the comprehensive characteristics of multi extreme climate events in different regions. The results show that the high value areas of MXCI were mainly located in Southeast China and Southwest China. The MXCI presented a decreasing trend in most of the western and southeastern regions of China, while an increasing trend from Southwest China to the south of Northeast China, due to the frequent occurrence of extreme high temperature, extreme drought and other extreme events in these regions.
Subject: Environmental And Earth Sciences, Environmental Science Keywords: climate-smart forestry; forest resilience; adaptive forest management; climate change mitigation; SFM; bioeconomy
Online: 19 June 2023 (10:52:43 CEST)
This essay review explores the concept of climate-smart forestry as an approach to mitigating and adapting to climate change. It highlights the need for a holistic approach to forestry that considers regional differences and synergies between ecosystem services. The essay discusses various management strategies at different scales, including species selection, mixed species cultivation, and the promotion of the bioeconomy. It also examines the trade-offs and synergies between different forest uses and the effects of forest management on ecosystem services. Furthermore, the review addresses major abiotic and biotic damage risks to forests, such as wildfires, windstorms, and bark beetle attacks, and proposes risk management strategies. Lastly, the review delves into the management of peatland forests, discussing the role of drainage, the impact of ditch network maintenance, and the challenges of peat ash fertilization. Overall, the review provides valuable insights into climate-smart forestry and its potential to contribute to climate change mitigation and adaptation.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202211.0301.v1
Subject: Environmental And Earth Sciences, Environmental Science Keywords: students’ awareness; climate change; climate information; mitigation activities; Democratic Re-public of Congo
Online: 16 November 2022 (08:58:25 CET)
Students are often portrayed as future leaders. Their participation in climate change mitigation would improve when they access climate information and gain a high level of climate change awareness. This study was initiated to assess the Congolese students’ awareness of climate change by focusing on their sources of information on climate change, knowledge about the causes and impacts of climate change and activities that can raise awareness on climate change. Using a convenience sampling technique, we collected data through individual interviews conducted among 1,278 students from 13 universities across the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). The interview results showed that all students irrespective of their disciplines were concerned about climate change, a phenomenon strongly driven by human activities, such as deforestation (78%), urbanisation (30%), agriculture activities (30%) and transport services (26%). The students’ perceptions of climate change impacts included increase in temperature (82%), decrease in the number of rainy days (66%), proliferation of pests (60%) and increase in the number of malaria patients (39%). The primary sources of information that significantly affected students’ awareness of climate change included environment-related university courses and television broadcasts. The awareness-raising and mitigation actions related to climate change recommended by the students included educating people about good waste management (56%), planting trees (65%) and using the taxes paid by mining companies for the restoration of degraded ecosystems. The students believed that in DRC, all layers of the society (educational institutions, civil society organisations, community members and businesses) are important in building resilience to climate change. This study can guide teachers to focus their educational efforts on shaping pro-environmental behaviour in students.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202211.0257.v1
Subject: Social Sciences, Geography, Planning And Development Keywords: climate change adaptation; adaptation plan; small municipality; France, United States; climate services; information
Online: 14 November 2022 (11:10:35 CET)
There is a growing consensus that to effectively adapt to climate change, cities need user-friendly tools and reliable high-resolution biophysical and socio-economic data for analysis, mapping, modeling, and visualization. This study examines availability of various types of information used in climate adaptation plans of 40 municipalities with population less than 300,000 people in the United and in France, probing into the choice and usage of relevant information by small municipalities. We argue that non-climatic spatial data, such as population demographic and socio-economic patterns, urban infrastructure, and environmental data must be integrated with climate tools and datasets to inform effective vulnerability assessment and equitable climate adaptation planning goals. Climate adaptation plans frequently fail to address the existing structural inequalities and environmental injustices in urban infrastructure and land use. Adaptation methodological approaches should be reassessed in the context of much needed societal transformation. Lessons learned from our studies offer valuable insights for potential development of the national and state-level climate adaptation information services for cities.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202209.0436.v1
Subject: Environmental And Earth Sciences, Environmental Science Keywords: Uncertainty; Climate risk assessment; Impact chain; Climate change; Risk; Tourism risk; Heat index
Online: 28 September 2022 (09:23:03 CEST)
The Impact Chain framework for risk assessment has proven to be a robust and effective It is very useful to set up the conceptual framework associated to a given risk and allows accommodating naturally the different components that shape that However, the operationalization of the impact chain may not be straightforward, in particular due to the inherent uncertainties associated to the selected indicators and the assigned In this paper, we introduce an extension to the Impact Chain framework that allows to consider uncertainties in the different components of the risk In the framework of the UNCHAIN project, a web-based tool has been developed to ease the task of implementing that The tool has been applied to a case study on the loss of tourist attractiveness due to heat stress conditions on the Balearic island, Spain, to illustrate how uncertainties in different components of the impact chain can affect the robustness of the final risk Also, the tool provides an estimate of the sensitivity of the final risk to each component, which can be used to guide risk mitigation Finally, a proposal for the validation of the risk assessment is presented.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202105.0410.v1
Subject: Social Sciences, Geography, Planning And Development Keywords: climate proofing; spatial planning; climate change adaptation; framework; cross-regional; integral; co-benefits
Online: 18 May 2021 (10:21:27 CEST)
Spatial planning holds a key role in preventing or mitigating the impacts of climate change on both cities and rural areas, taking a forward-thinking and holistic approach to urban and regional development. As such, spatial planning deals with challenges occurring at different scales and across sectors. The international literature points out the need for horizontal and vertical cooperation to tackle climate change impacts. While there is abundant knowledge regarding the challenges related to climate change at different spatial levels, procedural integration into planning frameworks and practice is currently under-researched. This paper presents a novel theoretical framework that integrates various steps towards a holistic, integrative and adaptive climate proofing process. An iterative process was used for conceptual development, based on literature review followed by external feedback meetings and two workshops with the core team of planning experts responsible for exchange across federal states. By specifically addressing the challenges relating to cross-regional and cross-sectoral planning, this novel framework attempts to (i) facilitate a hierarchy of measures, (ii) maximise co-benefits for various adaptation purposes and climate change mitigation and (iii) foster the long-term institutionalisation of integrative processes across sectors, planning areas and policy levels.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201808.0337.v1
Subject: Biology And Life Sciences, Forestry Keywords: Southeastern rim of Tibetan plateau; dendrochronology; climate response; climate warming; subalpine conifer forests
Online: 18 August 2018 (12:08:03 CEST)
Climate change has a inevitable impacts on tree radial growth, particularly at mountain timeberlines. To understand climate effects on conifer radial growth in the central Hengduan Mountains and potential impacts of future climate change on conifer forest, we studied growth responses to climate variables in Abies georgei, the major tree species of conifer forest in Hengduan Mountains. We collected tree ring samples from four sites near the timberlines and analyzed the relationship between principle components (PC#1) of four chronologies and climatic variables by using response function analysis (RFA), redundancy analysis (RDA) and moving interval analysis (MIA). A. georgei growth was affected by both temperature (positive effects) and precipitation (negative effects). Specifically, the radial growth of A. georgei was significantly and positively correlated with current July and previous November temperature (detected by both RFA and RDA), while precipitation of current June and September inhibited tree growth (detected by RDA). More rapid warming in recent 20 years (1990–2010) clearly enhanced growth responses to July and November temperature, whereas the relationship was weaken for June and September precipitation according to MIA. Under the climate trend of the study area, if the increasing temperature could offset the negative effects of excessive precipitation, A. georgei radial growth would likely benefit from warming, the dynamics of conifer forest should also consider indirect impacts of climate change.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202310.0567.v1
Subject: Environmental And Earth Sciences, Environmental Science Keywords: climate change; discharges; ecosystems; rivers
Online: 10 October 2023 (08:34:40 CEST)
Puerto Rico is a neotropical island located in the Caribbean. Like other neotropical regions, Puerto Rico streams discharges can vary with the seasons, atmospheric events, and human activities. The Lapa River is part of the Puerto Rico Heritage Rivers Program. This program identifies and manages the protection of hydrographic systems that maintain their natural conditions. The necessity of increasing the knowledge of the natural processes of the Lapa River and providing valuable information for the development of a future management plan for the ecosystem, the following objectives were established in this research: (1) to describe the temporal variations in water discharges in the Lapa River and (2) to describe the impact of atmospheric events on the water discharges at the Lapa River. This study concluded that the highest annual discharge averages recorded from 1989 to 2021 in the Lapa River occurred in 2011 and 2017. 2011, the annual mean discharge was 31.20 (ft3/s); in 2017, the average was 40.44 (ft3/s). In terms of atmospheric events, this study concludes that, during the evaluated period, the highest discharge event occurred after the impact of hurricanes Irma and Maria, with an average discharge of 164.40 ft3/s in October and 182.60 ft3/s in September. This event set a precedent in the river Lapa’s discharges, impacting the river basin’s flora, fauna, and morphology from its headwaters downstream.
REVIEW | doi:10.20944/preprints202309.0332.v1
Subject: Biology And Life Sciences, Parasitology Keywords: climate change; host-parasite; bioindicators
Online: 6 September 2023 (04:56:59 CEST)
Climate changes caused by anthropogenic actions can directly and indirectly affect living beings, including parasites and their hosts. Changes such as water temperature, pH, distribution of nutrients in the aquatic environment are some examples that can interfere with the fish community, whether in open water or in production systems. In this review, we will show how climate change can affect the adaptation of hosts and parasites in the aquatic environment and how these parasites can be used for environmental monitoring.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202306.0060.v1
Subject: Environmental And Earth Sciences, Environmental Science Keywords: Environmental Health; Education; Climate Change
Online: 1 June 2023 (08:04:49 CEST)
Introduction. Environmental Health in a Global World at New York University was re-designed as a class participatory effort, challenging undergraduate students to understand environmental hazards and the resultant adverse health outcomes by embracing the inherent complexity of environmental risks and proposing solutions. Methods. Following introductory lectures, students are placed into teams and assigned a specific perspective, or avatar, which includes learning to see the challenge from the perspective of a technical expert such as a biologist, an engineer, or an anthropologist. The teams then design specific systems maps to visualize the complex interactions that lead to adverse health outcomes after a given environmental exposure. The maps highlight potential leverage points, where relatively minor interventions can provide a disproportionate benefit in health outcomes. The teams then explore potential interventions and identify the potential unintended consequences of those actions, develop and advocate for innovative new strategies to mitigate risk and improve outcomes. Results and Discussion. Over the past 5 years we have taught this methodology to over 680 students with strong, student-oriented results. The teams created and presented more than 100 strategies, addressing a diverse set of environmental challenges that include water contamination, gun violence, air pollution, environmental justice, health security, and climate change. Developing the strategies helped the students understand environmental threats in a more holistic way, provided them with some agency in finding solutions, and offered an opportunity for them to improve their presentation skills. The responses in course evaluations have been enthusiastic, with many students reporting a deep impact on their college experience.
HYPOTHESIS | doi:10.20944/preprints202304.1246.v1
Subject: Biology And Life Sciences, Ecology, Evolution, Behavior And Systematics Keywords: Climate change; Butterfly; Thimphu; Bhutan
Online: 30 April 2023 (03:18:31 CEST)
The study aims to investigate the impacts of climate change on butterfly populations Thimphu district of Bhutan. Butterflies are indicators of environmental factors and can act as an early warning of impending changes in local flora and fauna. The study will involve citizen science with participants using iNaturalist and Seek applications to capture butterfly data in various habitat areas in the Thimphu district. The data collected will be analyzed using Statistics Kit for Social Sciences (SPSS), Nvivo, and Geographical Information System (GIS) programs. The results of the research will be disseminated through awareness campaigns to increase public understanding of the value of butterfly protection in the conservation of healthy environments. The study's findings will be used to develop conservation initiatives to maintain biodiversity and assess the impacts of climate change.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202204.0260.v1
Subject: Environmental And Earth Sciences, Atmospheric Science And Meteorology Keywords: Bluecat; climate models; stochastics; uncertainty.
Online: 27 April 2022 (10:46:45 CEST)
Bluecat is a recently proposed methodology to upgrade a deterministic model (D-model) into stochastic (S-model), based on the hypothesis that the information contained in a time series of observations and the concurrent predictions by the D-model is sufficient to support this upgrade. Prominent characteristics of the methodology are its simplicity and transparency, which allow easy use in practical applications, without sophisticated computational means. Here we utilize the Bluecat methodology and expand it in order to be combined with climatic model outputs, which often require extrapolation out of the range of values covered by observations. We apply the expanded methodology to the precipitation and temperature processes in a large area, namely the entire territory of Italy. The results showcase the appropriateness of the method for hydroclimatic studies, as regards the assessment of the performance of the climatic projections, as well as their stochastic conversion with simultaneous bias correction and uncertainty quantification.
REVIEW | doi:10.20944/preprints202111.0394.v1
Subject: Biology And Life Sciences, Biology And Biotechnology Keywords: Turmeric; Climate change; Improved nutrition
Online: 22 November 2021 (13:27:03 CET)
Turmeric is highly tolerant to several climatic changes and can grow under high temperatures and moderate drought conditions. This herb is very much dependant on optimum rainfall, optimum heat with less chilling or freezing conditions. These conditions if are more than normal would tend to reduce the yields of the crops and also effect the productivity. To reduce such drastic yield losses certain conventional plant breeding methods were employed but were very less effective compared to plant biotechnology. To reduce these loses by stresses, extensive and effective molecular biology methods were employed which identifies the genes that are stress responsive along with certain methods like gene transfer, genetic engineering was also known to be effective. All these methods are quite helpful in mitigating the yield losses and promoting healthy growth in the plants. The maintenance of rhizome size, curcumin content, essential oils etc. is very much necessary for the turmeric crop because of its role, especially in the medical field. Therefore, the yield losses are reduced to a maximum extent so that development of smart turmeric is easy and crop designing is possible only with the advanced techniques involved in agriculture biotechnology.
COMMUNICATION | doi:10.20944/preprints202109.0213.v1
Subject: Social Sciences, Political Science Keywords: climate; democracy; religion; evangelism; environment
Online: 13 September 2021 (13:38:27 CEST)
The latest IPCC report forcefully states that immediate, decisive, and large-scale actions are needed to avert climate catastrophe. This essay presumes that democratic governments are best and most desirably positioned to take these actions. Yet in the countries most pivotal to global climate, significant voting blocs are uninterested in environmental issues. The essay urges adding bottom-up dialog between environmental and anti-environmental voters, to current and future top-down technocratic “solutions.” To make this combination result in a unified pro-environment electorate, we must understand: religious objections to environmentalism; the capital-vs.-knowledge strife that slows polluting corporations’ green transitions; and the psychological mechanisms that can make inter-group dialog fruitful.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202008.0068.v1
Subject: Environmental And Earth Sciences, Atmospheric Science And Meteorology Keywords: Climate; Elderly; Mortality; Meteorological Variables
Online: 3 August 2020 (09:56:17 CEST)
With the rising trends in elderly populations around the world, there is a growing interest in understanding how climate sensitivity is related to their thermal perception. Therefore, we analyzed the associations between mortality in the elderly due to cardiovascular (CVD) and respiratory diseases (RD) and meteorological variables, for three cities in the State of São Paulo, Brazil: Campos do Jordão, Ribeirão Preto and Santos, from 1996 to 2017. We applied the Autoregressive Model Integrated with Moving Average (ARIMA) and the Principal Component Analysis (PCA) in order to evaluate statistical associations. Results showed CVD as a major cause of mortality, particularly in the cold period, when a high mortality rate is also observed due to RD. The mortality rate was higher in Campos do Jordão and lower in Santos (and intermediate values in Ribeirão Preto). Campos do Jordão results indicate an increased probability of mortality from CVD and RD due to lower temperatures. In Ribeirão Preto, the lower relative humidity may be related to the increase in CVD and RD deaths. This study emphasizes that, even among subtropical climates, there are significant differences. Therefore, this can assist decision makers in the implementation of mitigating and adaptive measures.
SHORT NOTE | doi:10.20944/preprints202007.0033.v1
Subject: Environmental And Earth Sciences, Atmospheric Science And Meteorology Keywords: COVID19; Cyclone; Aerosols; Lockdown; Climate
Online: 3 July 2020 (12:06:09 CEST)
The world witnessed one of the largest lockdowns in the history of mankind ever, spread over months in an attempt to contain the contact spreading of the novel coronavirus induced COVID-19. As billions around the world stood witness to the staggered lockdown measures, a storm brewed up in the urns of the rather hot Bay of Bengal (BoB) in the Indian Ocean realm. When Thailand proposed the name “Amphan” (pronounced as “Um-pun” meaning ‘the sky’), way back in 2004, little did they realize that it was the christening of the 1st super cyclone (Category-5 hurricane) of the century in this region and the strongest on the globe this year. At the peak, Amphan clocked wind speeds of 168 mph (Joint Typhoon Warning Center) with the pressure drop to 925 h.Pa. What started as a depression in the southeast BoB at 00 UTC on 16th May 2020 developed into a Super Cyclone in less than 48 hours and finally made landfall in the evening hours of 20th May 2020 through the Sundarbans between West Bengal and Bangladesh. Did the impact of the COVID-19 induced lockdown drive an otherwise typical pre-monsoon tropical depression into a super cyclone?
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201806.0155.v1
Subject: Environmental And Earth Sciences, Space And Planetary Science Keywords: essential climate variables; climate data records; earth observation satellites; quality assurance; traceability; user requirements; climate applications; surface albedo; LAI; FAPAR; NO2; HCHO; CO
Online: 11 June 2018 (11:24:59 CEST)
Data from Earth Observation (EO) satellites are increasingly used to monitor the environment, understand variability and change, inform evaluations of climate model forecasts and manage natural resources. Policy makers are progressively relying on the information derived from these datasets to make decisions on mitigating and adapting to climate change. These decisions should be evidence based, which requires confidence in derived products as well as the reference measurements used to calibrate, validate or inform product development. In support of the European Union’s Earth Observation Programmes Copernicus Climate Change Service, the Quality Assurance for Essential Climate Variables (QA4ECV) project fulfilled a gap in the delivery of climate quality satellite derived datasets by prototyping a robust, generic system for the implementation and evaluation of Quality Assurance (QA) measures for satellite-derived ECV climate data record products. The project demonstrated the QA system on six new long-term, climate quality ECV data records for surface Albedo, Leaf Area Index, FAPAR, NO2, HCHO and CO. Provision of standardized QA information provides data users with evidence-based confidence in the products and enables judgement on the fitness-for-purpose of various ECV data products their specific applications.
REVIEW | doi:10.20944/preprints202309.2029.v1
Subject: Public Health And Healthcare, Public, Environmental And Occupational Health Keywords: one health; health promotion; climate change; exercise; nutrition; health literacy; climate literacy; sustainability; social determinants
Online: 3 October 2023 (03:38:14 CEST)
The climate crisis is developing to a life-changing event on a global level. Health promotion with the aim to increase the health status of individuals, independent from the present health status has been developed on scientific basis at least for the last eight decades and follows. There are some basic principles, which are prerequisites for both, health promotion and climate protection. Those principles include (1) sustainability, (2) orientation on determinants, and (3) requirement of in-dividual as well as community approaches. People are generally aiming to protect their lifestyle habits (e.g. traveling, consumer habits) and personal properties (e.g. car, house) by easy solution with as little effort as possible, and this can affect both, health and climate. To reduce the emission of greenhouse gases and to protect our environment, changes towards a sustainable lifestyle have to be embed into everybody’s mind. Examples for domains, that need to be addressed in health promotion as well as in climate protection include education/ knowledge/ (health) literacy, physical activity, nutrition and dietary habits, mental health, and social capital. If health promo-tion fails to tackle those domains, this will continue to drive climate crisis. And climate change, in turn, will affect health. On the other hand, developing and promoting health resources in the domains mentioned could again help to mitigate the health-damaging effects of climate change.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202306.1546.v1
Subject: Environmental And Earth Sciences, Atmospheric Science And Meteorology Keywords: climate variability; climate indices; low-frequency oscillations; temperature; ENSO; heat waves; Western Hemisphere Warm Pool
Online: 21 June 2023 (11:55:48 CEST)
In order to better understand the extent to which global climate variability is linked to the frequency and intensity of heat waves and overall changes in temperature throughout the United States (US), correlations between long-term monthly mean, minimum, and maximum temperatures measured at sites throughout the contiguous US and low-frequency variability of multiple climate indices (CIs) are analyzed over the period 1948 to 2018 using correlation analysis. The Pearson’s correlation coefficient is used to assess correlation strength, while Leave-One-Out Cross-Validation and a bootstrapping technique (p-value) are used to address potential serial and spurious correlation and assess the significance of each correlation. Three parameters defined the sliding windows over which surface temperature and CI values were averaged: window size, lag time between the temperature and CI windows, and the beginning month of the temperature window. A 60-month sliding window size and 0 lag time resulted in the strongest correlations overall; beginning months were optimized on an individual site basis. Strong (r >= 0.60) and significant (p-value <= 0.05) correlations were identified. The Western Hemisphere Warm Pool (WHWP) and El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) exhibited the strongest links to temperatures in the western US, tropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures to temperatures in the central US, the WHWP to temperatures throughout much of the eastern US, and atmospheric patterns over the northern Atlantic to temperatures in the Northeast and Southeast. The final results were compared to results from previous studies focused on precipitation and coastal sea levels. Regional consistency was found regarding links between the northern Atlantic and overall weather and coastal sea levels in the Northeast and Southeast as well as on weather in the upper Midwest. Though the MJO and WHWP revealed dominant links with precipitation and temperature, respectively, throughout the West, ENSO revealed consistent links to sea levels and surface temperatures along the West Coast. These results help focus future research regarding specific mechanisms of climate variability that appear the exhibit strong links to US regional weather and sea level variability and prediction.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202103.0099.v1
Subject: Business, Economics And Management, Business And Management Keywords: Economic risk assessment, capital-based framework, six-capital framework, climate response, climate adaptation, urban resilience
Online: 2 March 2021 (15:47:00 CET)
Estimating the economic risks of climate shocks and climate stressors on spatially heterogeneous cities over time remain highly challenging. The purpose of this paper is to present a practical methodology to assess the economic risks of climate change in developing cities to inform spatially sensitive municipal climate response strategies. Building on a capital-based framework (CBF), spatially disaggregated baseline and future scenario scores for economic wealth and its exposure to climate change are developed for six different classes of capital and across 77 major suburbs in Cape Town, South Africa. Capital-at-risk was calculated by combining relative exposure and capital scores across different scenarios and with population impacted plotted against the major suburbs and the city’s 8 main planning districts. The economic risk assessment presented here provides a generic approach to assist investment planning and the implementation of adaptation options through an enhanced understanding of relative levels of capital endowment vis-à-vis relative levels of exposure to climate-related hazards over time. An informed climate response strategy in spatially heterogeneous cities need to include spatially sensitive estimates on capital-at-risk and populations disproportionally impacted by climate exposure over time. The economic risk assessment approach presented here helps in advancing to such a goal.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201912.0092.v2
Subject: Environmental And Earth Sciences, Environmental Science Keywords: climate change; warming levels; river runoff; extremes; emission pathway; LISFLOOD; Europe; PESETA project; climate adaptation
Online: 16 January 2020 (02:56:30 CET)
The outcomes of the 2015 Paris Agreement triggered a number of climate impact assessments, such as for floods and droughts, to focus on future time frames corresponding to the years of reaching specific levels of global warming. Yet, the links between the timing of the warming levels and the corresponding greenhouse gas concentration pathways to reach them, remain poorly understood. To address this gap, we compare projected changes of annual mean, extreme high and extreme low river discharges in Europe at 1.5°C and 2°C under scenarios RCP8.5 and RCP4.5 from an ensemble of Regional Climate Model (RCM) simulations. The statistical significance of the difference between the two scenarios for both warming levels is then evaluated. Results show that in the majority of Europe (>95% of the surface area for the annual mean discharge, >98% for high and low extremes), the changes projected in the two pathways are statistically indistinguishable. These results suggest that in studies of changes at specific warming levels the projections of the two pathways can be merged into a single ensemble without major loss of information. With regard to the uncertainty of the unified ensemble, findings show that the projected changes of annual mean, extreme high and extreme low river discharge are statistically significant in large portions of Europe.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201712.0045.v1
Subject: Environmental And Earth Sciences, Environmental Science Keywords: endorheic; lake; Central Asia; evaporation; semi-arid; Kazakhstan; climate change; Landsat; regional climate model; Burabay
Online: 7 December 2017 (14:56:58 CET)
Both climate change and anthropogenic activities contribute to the deterioration of terrestrial water resources and ecosystems worldwide. Central Asian endorheic basins are among the most affected regions through both climate and human impacts. Here, we used a digital elevation model, digitized bathymetry maps and Landsat images to estimate the areal water cover extent and volumetric storage changes in small terminal lakes in Burabay National Nature Park (BNNP), located in Northern Central Asia (CA), for the period of 1986 to 2016. Based on the analysis of long-term climatic data from meteorological stations, short-term hydrometeorological network observations, gridded climate datasets (CRU) and global atmospheric reanalysis (ERA Interim), we have evaluated the impacts of historical climatic conditions on the water balance of BNNP lake catchments. We also discuss the future based on regional climate model projections. We attribute the overall decline of BNNP lakes to long-term deficit of water balance with lake evaporation loss exceeding precipitation inputs. Direct anthropogenic water abstraction has a minor importance in water balance. However, the changes in watersheds caused by the expansion of human settlements and roads disrupting water drainage may play a more significant role in lake water storage decline. More precise water resources assessment at the local scale will be facilitated by further development of freely available higher spatial resolution remote sensing products. In addition, the results of this work can be used for the development of lake/reservoir evaporation models driven by remote sensing and atmospheric reanalysis data without the direct use of ground observations.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202304.0487.v2
Subject: Environmental And Earth Sciences, Atmospheric Science And Meteorology Keywords: drought; shock; agro-climate; agriculture; precipitation
Online: 16 October 2023 (10:55:23 CEST)
Both globally and in Hungary, agriculture is one of the industries that is most vulnerable to weather and climate extremes. Intense temperature rises, spatial and temporal variations in precipitation, and significant changes in extreme climatological and weather parameters have contributed to changes in the conditions of cropland, crop losses, and impacts on crop quality in recent years. This paper depicts the transformation of the domestic agricultural sector due to the extreme drought shock of 2022, as well exploring the adaptation strategies applied. The research is based on official agro-climate database and crop data, and the temperature, precipitation, and radiation during the growing season are all examined. The agro-meteorological properties in Hungary had to be investigated for the entire year and all four of its seasons, with indicator analysis projected onto the ever-increasing and dormant seasons. Long-term climate analysis is necessary to understand the historic drought of 2022 and the success of future adaptation and mitigation techniques. The results can help smallholders effectively reduce the adverse impacts of drought conditions, thereby increasing their adaptation to similar shocks.
REVIEW | doi:10.20944/preprints202309.0523.v1
Subject: Engineering, Architecture, Building And Construction Keywords: sustainable innovation; physical environment; innovation climate
Online: 7 September 2023 (10:57:17 CEST)
The intricate relationship between physical and social environments within organizations plays a pivotal role in shaping sustainable innovation endeavors. This paper presents a comprehensive analysis of two key dynamics that have garnered substantial scholarly attention for promoting sustainable innovation: the physical environment and the organizational climate. To elucidate the intricate interplay between these dynamics, we propose a novel three-dimensional framework that guides the modeling of the intricate processes through which the physical environment and innovation climate synergistically influence innovation outcomes. Building on this framework, we delve into an in-depth literature review concerning physical environments that exert a significant impact on innovation. Through this review, we identify and elaborate on four pivotal elements of the physical environment: communality, personalization, comfort, and healthiness. Leveraging insights gleaned from this review, we outline two promising avenues for future research in the realm of the physical environment's interaction with the innovation climate. Furthermore, we underscore the critical importance of adopting an interdisciplinary approach that seamlessly integrates insights from both the physical and social domains to comprehensively understand the sustainable innovation landscape.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202309.0144.v1
Subject: Environmental And Earth Sciences, Atmospheric Science And Meteorology Keywords: density altitude; Chinese airports; climate change
Online: 4 September 2023 (08:03:15 CEST)
This study examines the projected impact of climate change on the Density Altitude (DA) at Chinese airports during the summer by the end of the 21st century. Findings indicate that climate change is expected to significantly increase the DA at all Chinese airports, with an estimated rise between 300 and 800 feet. The analysis suggests temperature increases will universally contribute to a rise in DA. Pressure changes, however, are more variable. Most airports are predicted to see an increase in pressure, which could offset some temperature effects on the DA. Airports in eastern China are expected to see a decrease in pressure, amplifying the effects on DA and creating operational challenges.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202308.0210.v1
Subject: Environmental And Earth Sciences, Environmental Science Keywords: Sobols' method; Climate change; Amazon; Cerrado
Online: 3 August 2023 (02:38:07 CEST)
Understanding how climatic variables impact the reference evapotranspiration (ET0) is essential for water resource management, especially considering potential fluctuations due to climate change. Therefore, we used the Sobol method to analyze the spatiotemporal variations of Penman-Monteith ETo sensitivity to the climatic variables: downward solar radiation, relative humidity, maximum and minimum air temperature, and wind speed. The Sobol’s indices variances were estimated by Monte Carlo integration, setting the sample limits to 2.5 and 97.5 percentiles of the daily data of 33 automatic weather stations located in the state of Mato Grosso, Brazil. The results of the Sobol analysis indicate considerable spatiotemporal variations in the sensitivity of ETo to climatic variables and their interactions. The dominant climatic variable responsible for ET0 fluctuations in Mato Grosso is incident solar radiation, which has a more significant impact in humid environments, as observed in the areas of the Amazon biome in the state. Air relative humidity and wind speed have higher sensitivity indices during the dry season in the areas of the Cerrado biome (Savanna) in Mato Grosso. Our findings show that changes in solar radiation, relative humidity, and wind speed cannot be ignored when analyzing changes in reference evapotranspiration.
REVIEW | doi:10.20944/preprints202307.1092.v1
Subject: Environmental And Earth Sciences, Ecology Keywords: Antarctica; High Arctic; fungi; climate change
Online: 17 July 2023 (09:48:48 CEST)
The Antarctica and High Arctic regions are extreme environments, with average maximum temperatures below 0 °C for most days of the year. Interestingly, fungi inhabit these regions. This review describes the history of fungal surveys near the Syowa Station and the fungal diversity in this region. In the High Arctic region, I summarized the changes in fungal communities in glacial retreat areas of Ny-Ålesund, Norway and Ellesmere Island, Canada in response to climate change. In addition, growth and enzyme secretion ability of Antarctic and Arctic fungi at sub-zero temperatures are presented. Finally, I have also provided the future directions of Antarctic and Arctic fungal research.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202305.0787.v1
Subject: Biology And Life Sciences, Life Sciences Keywords: entomophilous plants; phenophases; honeybee; climate change
Online: 11 May 2023 (04:47:30 CEST)
Changes in the dates of phenological phases of plants and insects reflect changes in climate. The aim of the study was to determine the phenological patterns and interrelationships of spring-flowering entomophilous plants (Corylus avellana L., Alnus incana Moench., Tussilago farfara L., Salix caprea L., Acer platanoides L., Taraxacum officinale L., Prunus L., Malus domestica Mill.) and the honey bee (Apis mellifera L.) in response to climate change. The research was carried out at Vokė Branch of the Institute of Agriculture, Lithuanian Research Centre for Agriculture and Forestry, using data from phenological observations during 1961–2020. The results of the studies showed that over a 60-year period, a trend towards earlier dates of all phenological events studied was observed. Significant and larger-scale changes occurred starting from the decade 1981–1990. Throughout the entire study period, with the exception of one decade, the dates of honeybee emergence on flowers correlated reliably with the dates of entomophilous plant phenophases. Due to the advance of plants phenophase dates the synchrony with honeybee emergence dates changes however, these changes had a positive effect on the foraging conditions of overwintering honeybees.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202304.0579.v1
Subject: Social Sciences, Transportation Keywords: Sustainability; Transportation; Climate Change; Carbon Emissions
Online: 19 April 2023 (08:59:55 CEST)
The build-up of greenhouse gases (GHGs) is causing warmness in the Earth’s atmosphere, resulting in climate change. The transport sector is one of the active members of GHG emissions and it is imperative to use sustainable transport sources to control climate change. The measure aims to encourage citizens to stop using their private vehicles as their choice of transport and instead opt for joint sustainable mobility during traveling. In this study, a quantitative research method was used and data were collected from a sample of 410 respondents through questionnaire. On the other hand, study also took a simulation-based (N=10000) sample size of private vehicle data. The data were analyzed using structural equation modelling. The results revealed that sustainable transportation, climate change technologies and electric rail vehicles reduce climate change in the ecoregions of China. We conclude that sustainable transportation policies could be formulated and implemented to reduce climate change. In response to the research results, it is recommended that, since climate change is a multi-level governance issue and the outdated pyramidal transport industry models must be shifted to a sustainable transportation system model.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202304.0348.v1
Subject: Environmental And Earth Sciences, Atmospheric Science And Meteorology Keywords: tourism; Romania; climate information; near future
Online: 14 April 2023 (04:25:54 CEST)
The study presents an assessment of climate suitability for outdoor leisure activities in Romania using the Holliday Climate Index (HCI) for the near future (2021-2040), focusing on unfavorable and good climate conditions. The analysis employs data from an ensemble model in the context of RCP45 and RCP85 climate change scenarios. The results indicate that the number of days with low weather suitability is decreasing in almost the entire country, especially during the warm season, while during the winter and spring extended regions may be characterized by a higher number of days favorable for outdoor activities than during the current climate. An estimation of the impact of climate changes on tourism flux in Romania is further carried out, suggesting that the increasing attractivity of climate conditions may lead to an increased number of tourist overnights in the near future, more pronounced in rural destinations.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202212.0176.v1
Subject: Arts And Humanities, Architecture Keywords: resilience; climate change; urban planning; adaptation
Online: 9 December 2022 (10:01:53 CET)
The paper provides a critical synthesis of analysis and evaluation of some case studies in the Italian national context, which allowed, through an inductive method, to assess, in terms of integration and coherence, the process of transposition of climate change adaptation contents, possibly already contained within a regional urban framework (Regional Urban Laws) or specific Regional Adaptation Strategies or Local Adaptation Plans, within the territorial and urban planning tools of metropolitan or local scale.
REVIEW | doi:10.20944/preprints202204.0032.v1
Subject: Environmental And Earth Sciences, Environmental Science Keywords: Great Filter; Climate Change; Earth; Humanity
Online: 6 April 2022 (07:51:30 CEST)
Climate change is the long-term shift in global weather patterns, largely caused by anthropogenic activity of greenhouse gas emissions. Global climate temperatures have unmistakably risen and naturally-occurring climate variability alone cannot account for this trend. Human activities are estimated to have caused about 1.0 °C of global warming above the pre-industrial baseline and if left unchecked, will continue to drastically damage the Earth and its inhabitants. Globally, natural disasters and subsequent economic losses have become increasingly impactful as a result of climate change. Both wildlife ecosystems and human habitats have been negatively impacted, from rising sea levels to alarming frequency of severe weather events around the world. Attempts towards alleviating the effects of global warming have often been at odds and remain divided among a multitude of strategies, reducing the overall effectiveness of these efforts. It is evident that collaborative action is required for avoiding the most severe consequences of climate change. This paper evaluates the main strategies (industrial/energy, political, economic, agricultural, atmospheric, geological, coastal, and social) towards both mitigating and adapting to climate change. As well, it provides an optimal combination of seven solutions which can be implemented simultaneously, working in tandem to limit and otherwise accommodate the harmful effects of climate change. Previous legislation and deployment techniques are also discussed as guides for future endeavors.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202106.0088.v1
Subject: Business, Economics And Management, Accounting And Taxation Keywords: Climate change; Female farmers; Rural; Ghana
Online: 2 June 2021 (15:25:00 CEST)
Climate change poses a major threat to development in most low and middle-income countries, especially the sub – Saharan Africa. Wurompo is a small farming community in the Wenchi Municipality of the Brong-Ahafo region of Ghana that depends on rain-fed agriculture activities for livelihood. In recent years, droughts, unpredictable rainfall pattern and crop failure have become common in the area. The study assessed knowledge and awareness, effects of climate change on female farmers, and their adaptation strategies. A case study in design, qualitative methods were used to collect data from 50 purposefully selected participants. Data were analyzed using themes and sub-themes generated from the research questions. Findings showed lack of adequate information and knowledge on climate change and its effects. Climate change has impacted negatively on these farmers stemming from decline in crop production and unavailability of adequate water supply in due season. Challenges to climate change adaptation are poverty, poor basic infrastructure, and modern farming practices. Farmers must be educated on climate change and its effects, with training on the necessary adaptation strategies to build their resilience. Policies that target rural farmers to adapt to climate change, and device modern agricultural techniques and practices are also necessary.
TECHNICAL NOTE | doi:10.20944/preprints202101.0053.v1
Subject: Engineering, Safety, Risk, Reliability And Quality Keywords: climate; disasters; interpretability; relief; satellite imagery
Online: 4 January 2021 (15:58:21 CET)
Natural disasters ravage the world's cities, valleys, and shores on a monthly basis. Having precise and efficient mechanisms for assessing infrastructure damage is essential to channel resources and minimize the loss of life. Using a dataset that includes labeled pre- and post- disaster satellite imagery, we train multiple convolutional neural networks to assess building damage on a per-building basis. In order to investigate how to best classify building damage, we present a highly interpretable deep-learning methodology that seeks to explicitly convey the most useful information required to train an accurate classification model. We also delve into which loss functions best optimize these models. Our findings include that ordinal-cross entropy loss is the most optimal loss function to use and that including the type of disaster that caused the damage in combination with a pre- and post-disaster image best predicts the level of damage caused. Our research seeks to computationally contribute to aiding in this ongoing and growing humanitarian crisis, heightened by climate change.
COMMUNICATION | doi:10.20944/preprints202012.0481.v1
Subject: Business, Economics And Management, Accounting And Taxation Keywords: climate change; coastal adaptation; collective action
Online: 18 December 2020 (16:27:48 CET)
Not only are humans responsible for the anthropogenic causes of currently observed climate change, but we are also responsible for our responses to climate change. How we choose to respond provides important insights into our ability to collectively act in the face of threats with the unique characteristics of climate change. This communication attempts to provide an overview of some the difficulties in forging new policy directions along our coastlines in an era of climate change. It is meant as a referential framing for the research presented in this special issue. As this communication is being written, the world is gripped by a global pandemic caused by a variant of the coronavirus. There are important corollaries between the underlying characteristics of the coronavirus and the causes and effects of climate change. Seeing how the global citizenry is responding to the current epidemic provides some insight into the difficulties in fostering collective action towards climate change. As with the pandemic, the issue is not really one of understanding the problem, but rather the varying human responses to the problem. We can expect the same difficulties as we continue to confront the ever-growing problem of climate change.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202012.0468.v1
Subject: Environmental And Earth Sciences, Atmospheric Science And Meteorology Keywords: climate data; gridded product; data merging
Online: 18 December 2020 (13:29:38 CET)
This manuscript describes the construction and validation of high resolution daily gridded (0.05° × 0.05°) rainfall and maximum and minimum temperature data for Bangladesh : the Enhancing National Climate Services for Bangladesh Meteorological Department (ENACTS-BMD) dataset. The dataset was generated by merging data from weather stations, satellite products (for rainfall) and reanalysis (for temperature). ENACTS-BMD is the first high-resolution gridded surface meteorological dataset developed specifically for studies of surface climate processes in Bangladesh. Its record begins in January 1981 and is updated in real-time monthly and outputs have daily, decadal and monthly time resolution. The Climate Data Tools (CDT), developed by the International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI), Columbia University, is used to generate the dataset. This data processing includes the collection of weather and gridded data, quality control of stations data, downscaling of the reanalysis for temperature, bias correction of both satellite rainfall and downscaled reanalysis of temperature, and the combination of station and bias-corrected gridded data. The ENACTS-BMD dataset is available as an open-access product at BMD’s official website, allowing the enhancement of the provision of services, overcoming the challenges of data quality, availability, and access, promoting at the same time the engagement and use by stakeholders.
Subject: Medicine And Pharmacology, Immunology And Allergy Keywords: Climate Change; Policy; Migration; Health; Governance
Online: 12 November 2020 (11:39:36 CET)
Changing mobility patterns combined with changes in the climate present challenges and opportunities for global health, requiring effective, relevant and humane policy responses. This study used data from a systematic literature review that examined the intersection between climate change, migration and health. The aim of the present study was to synthesize policy recommendations in the peer-reviewed literature, regarding this type of environmental migration with respect to health, to strengthen the evidence-base. Systematic searches were conducted in four academic databases (PubMed, Ovid Medline, Global Health and Scopus) and Google Scholar for empirical studies published between 1990 – 2020 that used any study design to investigate migration and health in the context of climate change. Studies underwent a two-stage protocol-based screening process and eligible studies were appraised for quality using a standardized mixed-methods tool. From the initial 2,425 hits, 68 articles were appraised for quality and included in the synthesis. Among the policy recommendations, six themes were discernible: (1) avoid the universal promotion of migration as an adaptive response to climate risk; (2) preserve cultural and social ties of mobile populations; (3) enable the participation of migrants in decision-making in sites of relocation and resettlement; (4) strengthen health systems and reduce barriers for migrant access to health care; (5) support and promote optimization of social determinants of migrant health; (6) integrate health into loss and damage assessments related to climate change. The results call for transformative policies that support the health and wellbeing of people engaging in, or affected by mobility responses, including those whose migration decisions and experiences are influenced by climate change, and to establish and develop inclusive migrant healthcare.
Subject: Medicine And Pharmacology, Epidemiology And Infectious Diseases Keywords: COVID-19; Cold Climate; Weather; Finland
Online: 4 August 2020 (15:59:18 CEST)
Background: The current coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is spreading globally at an accelerated rate. There is some previous evidence that weather may influence the incidence of COVID-19 infection. We assessed the role of meteorological factors including temperature (T) and relative humidity (RH) considering the concentrations of two air pollutants, inhalable coarse particles (PM10) and nitrogen dioxide (NO2) in the incidence of COVID-19 infections in Finland, located in arctic-subarctic climatic zone. Methods: We retrieved daily counts of COVID-19 in Finland from Jan 1 to May 31, 2020, nationwide and separately for all 21 hospital districts across the country. The meteorological and air quality data were from the monitoring stations nearest to the central district hospital. A quasi-Poisson generalized additional model (GAM) was fitted to estimate the associations between district-specific meteorological factors and the daily counts of COVID-19 during the study period. Sensitivity analyses were conducted to test the robustness of the results. Results: The incidence rate of COVID-19 gradually increased until a peak around April 6 and then decreased. There were no associations between daily temperature and incidence rate of COVID-19. Daily average RH was negatively associated with daily incidence rate of COVID-19 in two hospital districts located inland. No such association was found nationwide. The sensitivity analyses indicate the results are robust. Conclusions: Weather conditions, such as air temperature and relative humidity, may not be important factors affecting the COVID-19 incidence in the arctic and subarctic winter and spring. More evidence is needed on the associations between weather and COVID-19 during different seasons.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201904.0171.v1
Subject: Environmental And Earth Sciences, Environmental Science Keywords: adaptation; climate change; green economy; agriculture
Online: 15 April 2019 (12:30:46 CEST)
An opinion dependent cross sectional survey was conducted among charland peoples of Noakhali, Bangladesh with a view to identify the factors that affect green economy. Nijhumdwip Island and Tamaruddi union are highly affected by cyclone and soil salinity. Unpredictable rainfall is the most acute in Nijhumdwip. Lack of information the main problem in Nijhumdwip Island. Farmers are found less interest in integrated farming and crop diversification. Few farmers from Sonadia Union are involved in homestead gardening. Regression analysis have shown a negative relationship (p<0.001) between education of stockholders and decrease of crop production. On the other hand education level of stockholders is to be found positively (p<0.05) varied with decrease of food insecurity. So it can be said that educated farmers are more adaptive against climate change.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201812.0095.v1
Subject: Environmental And Earth Sciences, Environmental Science Keywords: Pakistan; Climate change; Rice production; ARDL
Online: 7 December 2018 (17:26:03 CET)
This research paper aims to examine the relationship between CO2, temperature, area, fertilizers and rice production in Pakistan. This study used Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) and Phillips Perron (PP) unit root tests to check the order of integration of each variable. The cointegration analysis with ARDL bounds testing approach is used to examine the impact of climate change on rice production in Pakistan over time series data from the period 1968 to 2014. The parameter stability test of the model is also checked at the end. The results of estimation show that the important variables of the study are cointegrated demonstrating the presence of long-run association among them. Furthermore, climate change factors, e.g. CO2 and temperature have a long-run and short-run positive effect on the production of rice in Pakistan. This present work is original and it is first time empirically tested the impact of climate change on rice production in Pakistan. The annual time series data of 47 years enhances the validity of the empirical findings. The most fruitful finding of this research is that rice production in Pakistan is positively influenced by emission of carbon dioxide (CO2) at 5 percent significance level in both long-run and short-run.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201809.0180.v1
Subject: Environmental And Earth Sciences, Environmental Science Keywords: local climate change; nitrification; monochloramine; temperature
Online: 11 September 2018 (04:18:59 CEST)
In this study, air temperatures were collected between 1985 and 2016 and compared to water temperatures in four locations in the distribution system of Pasadena Water & Power (PWP) that received imported surface water between 2001 and 2016 and from the purveyor of imported water. The concentration of chloramine residual and nitrite concentrations were collected between 2001 and 2016 these five locations. The results indicate that the median nighttime temperature of the period 2009 - 2016 was 1.6 oC warmer than the period of 1985 - 2000 and 0.5 oC warmer than the period 2001 - 2008. The median water temperature in the four distribution system samples increased by 0.8 oC to 1.4 oC depending on the location over the study period (p<0.001). The median chloramine concentration fell significantly (p<0.001) at three distribution system locations and the nitrite concentrations increased significantly at all four distribution system locations.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201808.0177.v1
Subject: Environmental And Earth Sciences, Environmental Science Keywords: morphological indices; urban climate; planning process
Online: 9 August 2018 (06:21:33 CEST)
The purpose of this article is to analyze urban form through the mapping of morphological indices, namely impervious surface fraction, building density, verticality, height/width ratio, roughness length, and porosity, to support urban planning in the city of João Pessoa, PB, in northeastern Brazil. The application of this study identifies and calculates such significant indices for the city's urban space from a Geographic Information System (GIS) model. The spatial indices play notable roles in climate at different scales, developing guidelines to maximize environmental quality, promote improvements to thermal comfort, minimize the urban heat island in the city of João Pessoa, and provide relevant data (considering microclimate aspects), guiding decisions related to the planning process.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201807.0285.v1
Subject: Environmental And Earth Sciences, Environmental Science Keywords: climate change; gis; geostatistic; raster math
Online: 16 July 2018 (12:26:24 CEST)
The province of Macerata, Italy, is a topographically complex region which has been little studied in terms of its temperature and precipitation climatology. Temperature data from 81 weather stations and precipitation data from 55 rain gauges were obtained, and, following quality control procedures, were investigated on the basis of 3 standard periods: 1931-1960, 1961-1990 and 1991-2014. Spatial and temporal variations in precipitation and temperature were analysed on the basis of six topographic variable (altitude, distance from the sea, latitude, distance from the closest river, aspect, and distance from the crest line). Of these, the relationship with altitude showed the strongest correlation. Use of GIS software allowed investigation of the most accurate way to present interpolations of these data and assessment of the differences between the 3 investigated periods. The results of the analyses permit a thorough evaluation of climate change spatially over the last 60 years. Generally, the amount of precipitation is diminished while the temperature is increased across the whole study area, but with significant variations within it. Temperature increased by 2 to 3°C in the central part of the study area, while near the coast and in the mountains the change is between about 0 and 1°C, with small decreases focused in the Appennine and foothill belt (-1 to 0°C). For precipitation, the decrease is fairly uniform across the study area (between about 0-200 mm), but with some isolated areas of strong increase (200-300 mm) and only few parts of territory in which there is an increase of 0-200 mm, mainly in the southern part of the coast, to the south-west and inland immediately behind the coast. The monthly temperature trend is characterized by a constant growth, while for precipitation there is a strong decrease in the amount measured in January, February and October (between 25 and 35 mm on average).
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201711.0156.v1
Subject: Business, Economics And Management, Business And Management Keywords: cars; China; climate change; innovation; renewables
Online: 24 November 2017 (04:16:23 CET)
New energy vehicles (NEVs) have been proposed as a promising technology to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. China is one of the leading countries in the development of NEVs, and a wide range of companies, including large and smaller businesses, are involved in the Chinese NEV market. Given that the NEV market involves the creation of nascent technologies, there are significant barriers to the development of NEV companies in the business growth stage. This is particularly significant in the case of small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). This study surveyed 100 NEV SMEs in China using a structured questionnaire to determine the most significant barriers to the growth of their businesses. Calculating the relative importance index (RII) from the collected questionnaire responses revealed that the most significant barrier at the growth stage is the lack of skilled scientists in China. The most important category of barriers is legal and institutional barriers, which suggests that government intervention in business activities, taxes, and unclear regulations are viewed by entrepreneurs as a serous hindrance to further development in the NEV industry.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201711.0116.v1
Subject: Environmental And Earth Sciences, Environmental Science Keywords: hydropower; climate change; renewable energy; dams
Online: 19 November 2017 (05:29:52 CET)
A large-scale, high-resolution, fully coupled hydrological/reservoir/hydroelectricity model is used to investigate the impacts of climate change on hydroelectricity generation and hydropower potential of non-powered dams across the Northeast United States megaregion with 11,037 dams and 375 hydroelectric power plants. The model is calibrated and validated using the U.S. Department of Energy records. Annual hydroelectricity generation in the region is 41 Terawatt-hours (Twh). Our estimate of the hydropower potential of non-powered dams adds up to 350 Twh. West Virginia, Virginia, Pennsylvania, and New York have significant potential for generating more hydroelectricity from already existing dams. On the other hand, this potential virtually does not exist for Rhode Island and Delaware and is small for New Jersey and Vermont. Climate change may reduce annual hydropower potential from non-powered dams by up to 13% and reduce current annual hydroelectricity generation by up to 8% annually. Increased rainfall in winters and earlier snowmelt in springs result in an increase in regional water availability in December through March. In other months, reduced precipitation and increased potential evapotranspiration rates combined with reduced recharge from the shift in spring snowmelt and smaller snowpack result in a decrease in availability of water and thus hydroelectricity generation. This changes call for the recalibration of dam operations and may raise conflict of interests in multipurpose dams.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201701.0061.v1
Online: 12 January 2017 (10:05:06 CET)
This paper proposes a method to utilize weather and land cover models to generate future environmental scenarios, and presents the watershed models to simulate the hydrological impact on watershed-scale hydrology. The Weather Generator model and General Circulation Model were applied to produce rainfall and local temperature under different climate conditions, and the Conservation and Land Use and its Effects model was incorporated to simulate future land cover variability. The circumstances of future climate and land cover changes were used as inputs to drive the HEC-HMS rainfall runoff model for obtaining surface runoff in a mountainous area. The WASH123D model was then utilized for the entire watershed simulation. Modeling results were then examined to discuss hydrological impacts on three different time periods: near future (2020-2039), future (2050-2069), and distant future (2080-2099). The Fengshan Creek basin in northern Taiwan was selected as study site. Simulations results indicated that the influence of climate change revealed more relevant effects when compared to local land cover changes. The ground water levels tended to diminish as the land cover area changed. In addition, both river and groundwater levels reveal that it is drier in dry season and wetter in wet season in future.