Preprint Article Version 1 Preserved in Portico This version is not peer-reviewed

Climatic Extrapolations in Hydrology: The Expanded Bluecat Methodology

Version 1 : Received: 26 April 2022 / Approved: 27 April 2022 / Online: 27 April 2022 (10:46:45 CEST)

A peer-reviewed article of this Preprint also exists.

Koutsoyiannis, D.; Montanari, A. Climate Extrapolations in Hydrology: The Expanded Bluecat Methodology. Hydrology 2022, 9, 86. Koutsoyiannis, D.; Montanari, A. Climate Extrapolations in Hydrology: The Expanded Bluecat Methodology. Hydrology 2022, 9, 86.

Journal reference: Hydrology 2022, 9, 86
DOI: 10.3390/hydrology9050086

Abstract

Bluecat is a recently proposed methodology to upgrade a deterministic model (D-model) into stochastic (S-model), based on the hypothesis that the information contained in a time series of observations and the concurrent predictions by the D-model is sufficient to support this upgrade. Prominent characteristics of the methodology are its simplicity and transparency, which allow easy use in practical applications, without sophisticated computational means. Here we utilize the Bluecat methodology and expand it in order to be combined with climatic model outputs, which often require extrapolation out of the range of values covered by observations. We apply the expanded methodology to the precipitation and temperature processes in a large area, namely the entire territory of Italy. The results showcase the appropriateness of the method for hydroclimatic studies, as regards the assessment of the performance of the climatic projections, as well as their stochastic conversion with simultaneous bias correction and uncertainty quantification.

Keywords

Bluecat; climate models; stochastics; uncertainty.

Subject

EARTH SCIENCES, Other

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