Recent research has enabled the integration of traditional Volt-VAr Control (VVC) resources, such as capacitors banks and transformer tap changers, with Distributed Energy Resources (DERs), such as photo-voltaic sources and energy storage, in order to achieve various Volt-VAr Optimization (VVO) targets, such as Conservation Voltage Reduction (CVR), minimizing VAr flow at the transformer, minimizing grid losses, minimizing asset operations and more. When more than one target function can be optimized, the question of multi-objective optimization is raised. In this work, we propose a general formulation of the multi-objective Volt-VAr optimization problem. We consider the applicability of various multi-optimization techniques and discuss the operational interpretation of these solutions. We demonstrate the methods using simulation on a test feeder.

The hourly and daily rainfall data which is spatially distributed are required as an input for run-off rain model. Furthermore, the run-off rain model is used to detect early flooding. The daily and hourly rainfall data have characteristics that most of data are zero. Therefore we need a model which can capture the phenomenon. A time series model involving location, which is a model that can be developed to approach the daily and hourly rainfall data, we can call Vector Autoregressive (VAR) model. The VAR model allows us for modeling rainfall data in several areas. However, in certain conditions the VAR model often occurs over-parameterization and reduces degrees of freedom. The aim of this study is to compare the VAR model with Maximum Likelihood Estimator (MLE) and Bayesian to hourly and daily rainfall data in SampeanWatershed of Bondowoso. The results showed that the hourly and daily rainfall data are fitted to VAR process of orde 5 and 1 respectively. Based on the AIC and SBC values indicate that the Bayesian is better than the MLE method. The Bayesian is able to predict parameters by producing a smaller variance covariance matrix than the MLE.

The goal of VAR or BVAR is the characterization of the dynamics and endogenous relationships among time series. Also the VAR models are known for their applications to forecasting and policy analysis. This paper compare the performance of VAR and Sims-Zha Bayesian VAR models when the multiple time series are jointly influenced by different levels of collinearity and autocorrelation in the short term (T=16, 32, 64 and 128). Five levels (-0.9,-0.5, 0,+0.5,+0.9) of collinearity and autocorrelation were considered and the results from the simulation study revealed that VAR(2) model dominated for no and moderate levels of autocorrelation (-0.5, 0, +0.5) irrespective of the collinearity level except in few cases when T=16. While the BVAR models dominated for high autocorrelation levels (-0.9 and +0.9) irrespective of the collinearity level except in few cases when T=128. The performance of the models varies at different levels of the collinearity and autocorrelated error, and also varies with the short term periods. Furthermore, the values of the RMSE and MAE criteria decrease as a result of increase in the time series length. In conclusion, the performance of the forecasting models depend on the time series data structure and the time series length. It is therefore recommended that the data structure and series length should be considered in using an appropriate model for forecasting.

The general objective of the study is to analyze food insecurity determinants mainly related to food price at macro level. The study used a time series data from the year 1988 quarter one to 2018 quarter four. Our empirical finding on the macroeconomic model show the short term consequence of food price change is positive with food security (negative with food insecurity). The long term consequence of food price change is, however, negative with food security (positive with food insecurity) at macro level. From the variance decomposition, it can be learned that the speed by which the undernourished people decrease in number in the short term because of the inflation happened is higher than the speed by which the number of undernourished people increase in the long run. At macro level, concern should be made to the supply side for food security improvement.

This paper examines how housing prices are determined by macroeconomic factors in Saudi Arabia, namely, Gross Domestic Product Per capita (GDPP), Consumer Prices Index (CPI), and Unemployment Rate (UNEMP). Quarterly data for a period (2014q1 – 2019q4) were collected from publications of Saudi Arabian Monetary Authority (SAMA). Vector Autoregression Analysis (VAR) is employed to capture the dynamic effect of the variables on housing prices. Granger Causality, Variance Decomposition and Impulse response function are also used. The results show that housing prices are insignificantly and positively related to GDPP, whereas it is negatively related to both (CPI & UNEMP). Only CPI has a significant relationship. The three variables, jointly, have Granger causality on HPI. Variance decompositions show that CPI is the variable with the highest explanatory power over the variation of housing prices, followed by GDPP and the UNEMP respectively indicating that CPI is the most influential determinants for housing prices.

Numerical weather prediction is an initial-value problem, for determination of the initial conditions, there are many methods and one of the most classical methods is variational methods in three dimensions, or 3D-Var. In this approach, with a defined cost function proportional to the square of the distance between the analysis and both the background and the observations, one can obtain the analysis. In the cost function, the background and the observations are reshaped to vectors; within this step, the order of the background error covariance matrix and the observational error covariance matrix becomes huge, which is not convenient to one to obtain the analysis. In this paper, according to the matrix analysis approach, we put forward some possible improvements to the dimension-reduction algorithm of 3D-Var, so that provide some references for data assimilation.

The COVID-19-induced strain on global supply chains led to significant market imbalances and unprecedented inflation, particularly affecting urban economies. Containment policies and stimulus packages resulted in unpredictable demand shifts, challenging urban supply chain planning and resource distribution. These disruptions underscored the need for robust risk management models, especially in cities where economic activity and population density exacerbate supply chain vulnerabilities. This study develops a comprehensive risk model tailored for G-7 urban economies, analyzing the causal and cointegration relationships between key economic indicators. Using Granger causality tests and a factor-augmented vector autoregression (FAVAR) approach, the study examines complex time series and high-dimensional variables, focusing on urban-specific indicators such as the Composite Leading Indicator (CLI) and Business Confidence Indicator (BCI). Our results indicate strong causal relationships among these indicators, validating CLI as a reliable early predictor of urban economic trends. The findings confirm the viability of this urban supply chain risk management model, offering potential pathways for strengthening urban resilience and economic sustainability in the face of future disruptions. This approach positions the study within the context of urban science, emphasizing the impacts on cities and how urban economies can benefit from the developed risk model.

The demand for renewable energy is increasing globally due to concerns about climate change, pollution, and the finite nature of fossil fuel resources, as renewable energy has been recognized as a significant factor in realizing sustainable development. The government of Saudi Arabia adopted the reduction of fossil fuel subsidies policy as a financial motivation for supporting both the production and consumption of fossil fuels. Therefore, this study aims to investigate the influence and shocks of Saudi’s financial development indicators on renewable energy consumption (REC). And to examine the track of causality between financial development indicators and REC. The study covers the annual data period of 1990-2021 and applies the Basic Vector Autoregressive model (VAR), Granger causality test, forecast error variance decomposition (FEVD), and impulse response function (IRF). The results imply that the financial development indicators have a significant positive impact on REC. The results of causality between REC and financial development indicators were conflicting. The results reveal that REC variation is explained by its innovative shocks and has a positive response to shocks in financial development. Authorities can encourage investment in renewable energy consumption by providing financial incentives also the governments can foster national and international partnerships between investors, policymakers, and industry stakeholders. Employing different determinants of financial development indicators and incorporating population factors in the REC function will be highly recommended for forming the renewable energy demand in Saudi Arabia.

We explore, for the first time in the literature, how the revenues of the ship-management companies respond to macroeconomic exogenous shocks. Using data for ship-management companies in Cyprus, we find evidence that a demand shock has the largest impact on revenues, exhibiting an almost one-for-one relationship. If the demand shock is permanent, we observe a ceteris paribus permanent effect on revenues. Similarly, this occurs irrespective of the final effect that demand has on the relevant freight rate, proxied via the Baltic dry and tanker (dirty and clean) indices. The BDI and the BDTI indices have smaller effect on revenues, standing at approximately 0.05% for every 1% shock, while the clean tanker index does not have an effect, most likely due to their fleet composition. In accordance with the literature, we find that a shock in the price of Brent oil increases revenues. Our results bear importance not only for ship-management companies per se, but also for countries that are ship-management hubs.

Radar observation data with high temporal and spatial resolution are used in the data assimilation experiment to improve precipitation forecast of a numerical model. The numerical model considered in this study is Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model with double-moment 6-class microphysics scheme (WDM6). We calculated radar equivalent reflectivity factor using higher resolution WRF and compared with radar observations in South Korea. To compare the precipitation forecast characteristics of three-dimensional variational (3D-Var) assimilation of radar data, four experiments are performed based on different precipitation types. Comparisons of the 24-h accumulated rainfall with Automatic Weather Station (AWS) data, Contoured Frequency by Altitude Diagram (CFAD), Time Height Cross Sections (THCS), and vertical hydrometeor profiles are used to evaluate and compare the accuracy. The model simulations are performed with and with-out 3D-VAR radar reflectivity, radial velocity and AWS assimilation for two mesoscale convective cases and two synoptic scale cases. The radar data assimilation experiment improved the location of precipitation area and rainfall intensity compared to the control run. Especially, for the two convective cases, simulating mesoscale convective system was greatly improved.

Stocks portfolio is a form of investment that can be used to minimize the risk of loss. In a stock portfolio, the value at risk (VaR) can be predicted through the portfolio return. If portfolio return variance is heteroscedastic risk prediction can be done by using VaR with ARIMA-GARCH or Ensemble ARIMA-GARCH model approach. Furthermore, the accuracy of VaR is tested through backtesting test. In this study, the portfolio formed from Astra Agro Lestari Ltd (AALI) and Indofood Ltd (INDF) stocks from 10/02/2012 to 10/01/2019. The results showed that the best model is ARIMA(0,0,[3])-GARCH(1,2) with AIC of -5.604 and MSE 1.874e-07.At confidence level of 95% and 1 day holding period, the VaR of the ARIMA(0,0,[3])-GARCH(1,2) was -0.3464. Based on the backtesting test, it is proven to be very accurate to predict the value of loss risk because the value of the violation ratio (VR) is equal to 0.

Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to explore and analyse the dynamic relationship between remittances inflows of Egyptians working abroad and asymmetric oil price shocks. Design: This study uses a vector autoregressive (VAR) model to explain the impulse response functions (IRFs) and the forecast error variance decomposition (FEVD). The rationale behind using these tools is its ability to examine the dynamic effects of our variables of interest. Findings: The impulse response functions confirmed that remittance inflows have various responses to asymmetric oil price shocks. For instance, inflowing remittances increase in response to positive oil price shocks, while it decreases in response to negative oil price shocks. Also, the results indicate that the responses are significant in the short and medium-run and insignificant in the long run. The magnitude of these responses reaches its peak or trough in the third year. Further, the variance decomposition reveals that oil price decreases are more influential than oil price increases. Originality: This means that remittances inflows in Egypt are pro-cyclical with oil price shocks. That explained by the fact that more than one-half of those remittances sent from GCC countries where real economic growth is very pro-cyclical with the oil prices. This empirical assessment will help policymakers to determine the behaviour of remittances and highlights the impact of different kinds of oil prices shocks on remittances. Unlike the little existing literature, this study is the first study applied the VAR model using a novel dataset spanning 1960-2016.

Recently, the introduction of Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) scores has become crucial for investment decisions and in minimizing portfolio risk. This study aims to understand the relationship between ESG scores and Value-at-Risk (VaR), computed by using a Vine copula-GARCH based approach, chosen for its reliability in detecting interdependencies among multiple stocks. In fact, one of the main challenges in estimating VaR for a stock portfolio is capturing the dependence structure among a large number of assets. The dataset consists of 16 companies listed on the FTSE100 index. The corresponding ESG scores were collected over a comprehensive period of five years, from 2018 to 2022, covering both normal and stressed market conditions. Additionally, a focused analysis was conducted for the period from 2020 to 2022 to isolate the specific effects of the COVID crisis. The results indicate that an increase in assets with the highest ESG scores reduces potential losses in the portfolio. This finding underscores the importance of integrating high-level ESG scores into portfolios to mitigate market risk. Additionally, during periods characterized by stressed market conditions, the impact of ESG scores on VaR is even more pronounced, demonstrating that sustainable assets are more resilient in times of crisis.

The financial crisis augmented the need to predict real estate prices. The current study examines the application of Artificial Neural Network (ANN) model and Vector Autoregressive (VAR) model in forecasting real estate prices. The study uses daily observations, which accounted for a total of 2955 observations collected. We found that ANN outperformed significantly the VAR model providing evidence that these models can be used for valuation purposes in the area of real estate and financial markets. These findings are novel and important as they provide evidence of the usefulness of more sophisticated methodologies for market participants and regulators in real estate and financial markets.

Genome-wide sequencing data play an important role in evaluating the genomic level differences between superior and poor-quality crop plants and improving our understanding of molecular association with desired traits. We analyzed the obtained 92,921,066 raw reads from genome-wide resequencing of Cucumis sativus var. hardwickii through in-silico approaches and mapped to the reference genome of Cucumis sativus to identify the genome-wide single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) and Single nucleotide variations (SNV). Here, we report 19, 74,213 candidate SNPs including 1,33,468 insertions and 1,43,237 deletions and 75 Indels genome-wide. A total of 2228224 identified variants were classified into four classes including 0.01% sequence alteration, 5.94% insertion, 6.37% deletion and 87.66% SNV respectively. These variations can be a major source of phenotypic diversity and sequence variation within the species. During the present study these variants were also utilized to resolve orthologous relationships among the genomes of C. melo and C. sativus var. hardwickii. Overall, the discovery of SNPs and genomic variants may help predict the plant response to certain environmental factors and can be utilized to improve crop plants' economically important traits.

Capsicum annuum var. glabriusculum, is a variety of wild chili pepper belonging to the family Solanaceae and is considered as the origin for all cultivated chili species of the world. This species is an important genetic resource for agriculture and food, is widely distributed in northeastern Mexico in altitudes from 0 – 1200 m.a.s.l. This species grows mainly at low altitudes and its upper limit reaches 1000m., it prefers temperatures above 18.3^O C and its production and harvest may ocurr at two seasons, one during the beginning of the summer and the main one ocurring in the middle of the autumn in northeast México. It is estimated that the main production occurs in the state of Tamaulipas with 84 tons per year and is harvested from 23 municipalities. Concentration of capseicins and dihydrocapsaicine from wild populations may vary considerably from one location to another in the municipalities, ecotypes and diverse climatic conditions from this wide geographic zone. The high demands of wild chili as well as the variability on concentration of capseicins in fruits are considered as some of the main reasons why intensive cultivation of this species should be carried out in Northeastern Mexico.

This paper explores how the sustainable investment impacts financial returns and economic development in of Asia Pacific and North America, utilizing real data empirically. In academia and industrial field, it is polemical that indeed, the sustainable behavior has economic returns. In order to clarify that, we tested hypotheses with an analysis of seven stock markets, accounting of rates such as ROI, ROIC, and ROA in eleven companies, and GDP/GNI per capita. The results indicate that both financial return and economic development are positively germane to the sustainable investment. Besides, the variance of sustainability to economic development exists, depending on GDP per capita between two regions. We conclude, concerning the sustainability, by corroborating micro perspective for corporate level and macro perspective of economic development in the private and public sector. This research consequence will be interested in both practitioners and researchers in the measurement of sustainability performance

This paper investigates the long-run relationship between the U.S. dollar and Canadian dollar by defragmenting the bilateral exchange rate induced by nominal and real shocks. The methodology centers on a structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) model, including the analysis of impulse response and variance decomposition to account for the impact of nominal and real shocks on exchange rate movements. The study also decomposes the real shocks into demand and supply factors from both Canada and U.S. and compare their impact on the nominal and real exchange rate. Results are compared to shocks driven by country specific nominal factors. The study is conducted using quarterly based data over December 1972 – December 2023. Findings suggest that the real shocks have a permanent impact on both the nominal and real exchange, compared with nominal shocks which have a temporary impact. Country-specific real supply-side factors have a more discerning impact than country-specific real demand-side factors. Country-specific nominal barely impacted the nominal and real exchange between U.S. and Canada.

This study aims to find countries that differ in their development of the agricultural sector in terms of environmental care and to examine the relationship between renewable and non-renewable energy consumption and agricultural sector production in European Union countries. The classification of countries was conducted using the principal component method and biplot. Panel data for the period 2000-2022 and a VAR model, an impulse response function (IRF) and causality tests were used for the study. The results indicate two distinct groups of countries that significantly differ in adopting green agricultural practices. Only seven EU countries stand out for sustainable agriculture with low pesticide use, a significant share of organic farms and high use of renewable energy in agriculture. Energy consumption affects agricultural production differently in the two groups of countries studied: in countries with sustainable agriculture, an increase in renewable energy consumption translates into a positive increase in agricultural production. On the other hand, an increase in non-renewable energy consumption shows a dampening effect on agricultural production growth, especially in countries with less sustainable agriculture. The study results highlight the need to promote renewable energy development in agriculture and raise awareness about the adverse environmental effects of intensive agriculture while emphasising the positive impact of organic agriculture on agricultural production.

In the broader landscape of cryptocurrency risk management, this study delves into the nuanced estimation of Value at Risk (VaR) for a uniformly weighted portfolio of cryptocurrencies, employing the bivariate Normal Inverse Gaussian distribution renowned for its semi-heavy tails. Utilizing high-frequency data spanning from January 1st, 2017, to October 25th, 2022, with a primary focus on Bitcoin and Ethereum, our research seeks to accentuate the resilience of VaR methodology as a paramount risk assessment tool. The essence of our investigation lies in advancing the comprehension of VaR accuracy by quantitatively comparing observed returns of both cryptocurrencies with their corresponding estimated values, with a central theme being the endorsement of the Normal Inverse Gaussian distribution as a potent model for risk measurement, particularly in the domain of high-frequency data. To bolster the statistical reliability of our results, we adopt a forward test methodology, showcasing not only a contribution to the evolution of risk assessment techniques in Finance but also underscoring the practicality of sophisticated distributional models in econometrics. Our findings not only contribute to the refinement of risk assessment methods but also highlight the applicability of such models in precisely modeling and forecasting financial risk within the dynamic realm of cryptocurrencies, epitomized by the case study of Bitcoin and Ethereum.

Boeremia exigua var. exigua is a recurrent pathogen causing root rot in industrial chicory. Currently, there is no chemical or varietal control for this disease, and thus management strategies need to be developed. This study determined the biocontrol effect of strains of Pseudomonas protegens bacteria with antimicrobial compounds on the fungus B. exigua var. exigua under in vitro, in vivo and field conditions. In addition, root colonization by these bacteria was estimated by molecular analysis. Eighteen isolates of Pseudomonas spp were evaluated and the strains that showed the greatest in vitro inhibition of fungal mycelial growth (mm), Ca10A and ChB7, were selected. Inoculation with the strain ChB7 showed less severity (necrotic area) under in vivo conditions (root trials) compared to the control inoculated with the pathogen (P≤0.05). The molecular analysis revealed that root colonization of plants grown in pots was equal or greater than 70%. Similar levels were observed in the field trials conducted in Selva Negra and Canteras experimental stations (2015-16 season), with values ranging from 85.7 to 70.5% and from 75.0 to 79.5%, respectively. Regarding yield (ton ha-1), values were higher in the treatments inoculated with strains Ca10A and ChB7 (P≤0.05) in both experimental sites, while a lower incidence and severity of root rot were observed in Selva Negra. These results suggest that the Chilean strains of P. protegens are a promising tool for the control of root diseases in industrial chicory.

The basic helix-loop-helix (bHLH) transcription factor family is the second-largest transcription factor in plants. Members of this family are involved in the process of growth and development, secondary metabolic biosynthesis, signal transduction, and plant resistance. Loropetalum chinense var. rubrum is a critical woody plant with higher ornamental and economic values, which used as ornamental architecture and traditional Chinese herbal medicine plant. However, the bHLH transcription factor in the L. chinense var. rubrum (Loropetalum chinense var. Rubrum) have yet to be systematically demonstrated, and their role in anthocyanin biosynthesis remains secret. Here, we identified 165 potential LcbHLHs genes by two methods, and they were unequally distributed on chromosomes 1 to 12 of the L. chinense genome. Based on a phylogenetic comparison with proteins from Arabidopsis, these bHLH proteins were categorized into 21 subfamilies. Most LcbHLHs in a given subfamily had similar gene structures and conserved motifs. The gene ontology annotation and cis-elements predicted that the LcbHLHs had many molecular functions and were involved in plant growth processes, including flavonoid and anthocyanin biosynthetic processes, etc. Transcriptomic analysis revealed different expression patterns among different tissues and cultivars in L. chinense. Many LcbHLHs were expressed in leaves, and only a few genes were highly expressed in flowers. Six LcbHLH genes differentially expressed between species and periods in color variation, which may play a key role in anthocyanin synthesis. These further functional predictions of LcbHLHs were established by quantitative real-time PCR analysis and protein-protein interaction network. This study identified the six potential bHLH genes related to anthocyanin in L. chinense and created a solid framework for future research on the function and evolution of bHLHs.

This survey paper discusses the Cointegrated VAR methodology and how it has evolved over the last 30 years. The first section is a description of major steps in the econometric development of the CVAR model that facilitated serious real world applications. The next three sections are primarily methodological and discuss (i) difficulties and puzzles when confronting theory with the data, (ii) the formulation of a viable link between theory and the data, a so called theory-consistent CVAR scenario, and (iii) how all this was inspired by Trygve Haavelmo and his Nobel prize winning monograph "The Probability Approach to Economics". The next two sections discuss early applications of the Cointegrated VAR model to monetary transmission mechanisms, international transmission mechanisms and wage, price and unemployment dynamics. They report puzzling evidence, discuss the need for new theory, and propose a method for combining partial CVAR analyses into a larger macroeconomic model. The following sections propose a new, empirically-based, approach to macroeconomics in which imperfect knowledge based expectations replace so called rational expectations and in which the financial sector plays a key role for understanding the long persistent movements in the data. The last section argues that the CVAR can act as a "design of experiment for passive observations" and illustrates with several applications including unemployment dynamics under crises periods and aid effectiveness in South Saharan African countries.

Background: Several environmental factors can strongly influence the accumulation of glucosinolates and plant pigments. This study aimed to evaluate the growth and bioactive compounds production of baby leaf kale on colored reflective growing benches with different wavelengths; Methods: In an greenhouse, five types of growing benches were assessed without and with bright reflective colored materials: control and reflective bright (white, yellow, red, and blue); Results: The growing bench with laminated white reflective material increased the photosynthetically active radiation the most. The use of growing benches with laminated reflective material increased the production of baby leaf kale, in which the white, yellow, red, and blue laminates increased the number of leaves by 35.5, 26, 25, and 20.8%, respectively, and the shoot fresh mass by 132, 112, 112, and 109%, respectively. Using the growing bench reflective bright blue laminate increased the bioactive compounds of baby leaf kale plants, increasing chlorophylls A, B, and total by 72, 67, and 70% respectively, and carotenoids by 55%; Conclusions: The use of reflective materials is an alternative method that provides plants with better conditions for assimilating photosynthetically active radiation, increasing the development, yield, and production of bioactive compounds that promote human health.

The Loropetalum chinense and Loropetalum chinense var. rubrum are typical and traditional ornamental and Chinese herbal medicine in Asia. However, more information is needed on the mechanisms underlying its flower coloring. Here, we profiled the flavonoid metabolome, full-length sequencing, and transcriptome analysis to investigate the flavonoid biosynthesis and global transcriptome changes among different petal coloring cultivars of L. chinense and L. chinense var. rubrum. The total anthocyanins and phenotypic of the petal were highly consistent with the petal color. Moreover, a total of 207 flavonoid components were identified. Of these, 12 flavonoid components were considered significantly different expression compounds among the four samples. Meanwhile, the first reference full-length transcriptome of L. chinense var. rubrum was being built, which had 171,783 high-quality non-redundant transcripts with correcting with next-generation sequencing (NGS). Among them, 52,851 transcripts were annotated in the seven database of NR, KOG, GO, NT, Pfam, Swiss-Port and KEGG. Combined with NGS analysis, the DETs involved in flavonoids and anthocyanins contributed greatest to the flower-coloring. Additionally, the different expressed of eight LcDFRs and four LcANS genes were positively correlated with flavonoid biosynthesis, and the four LcBZ1 and one Lc3Mat1 were positively correlated with the content of seven anthocyanins revealed by coupling with metabolomics and transcriptomics analysis. Together these results were used to mine candidate genes by analyzing flower coloring changes in a comprehensive metabolic and transcriptomic level in L. chinense and L. chinense var. rubrum.

In the context of smart agriculture, accurately estimating plant leaf chemical parameters is crucial for optimizing crop management and improving agricultural yield. Hyperspectral imaging, with its ability to capture detailed spectral information across various wavelengths, has emerged as a powerful tool in this regard. However, the complex and high-dimensional nature of hyperspectral data poses significant challenges in extracting meaningful features for precise estimation. To address this challenge, this study proposes an end-to-end estimation network for multiple chemical parameters of Astragalus leaves based on attention mechanism (AM) and multivariate hyperspectral features (AM-MHENet). We leveraging HybridSN and multilayer perception (MLP) to extract prominent features from the hyperspectral data of Astragalus membranaceus var. mongholicus (AMM) leaves and stems, as well as the surface and deep soil surrounding AMM roots. This methodology allows us to capture the most significant characteristics present in these hyperspectral data with high precision. The AM is subsequently used to assign weights and integrate the hyperspectral features extracted from different parts of the AMM. The MLP is then employed to simultaneously estimate the chlorophyll content (CC) and nitrogen content (NC) of AMM leaves. Compared with estimation networks that utilize only hyperspectral data from AMM leaves as input, our proposed end-to-end AM-MHENet demonstrates superior estimation performance. Specifically, AM-MHENet achieves an R2 of 0.983 with an RMSE of 0.73 for the estimation of CC in AMM leaves. For NC estimation, AM-MHENet achieves an R2 value of 0.977 with an RMSE of 0.27. These results underscore AM-MHENet’s effectiveness in significantly enhancing the accuracy of both CC and NC estimation in AMM leaves. Moreover, these findings indirectly suggest a strong correlation between the development of AMM leaves and stems, as well as the surface and deep soil surrounding the roots of AMM, and directly highlight the ability of AM to effectively focus on the relevant spectral features within the hyperspectral data. This findings from this study could offer valuable insights into the simultaneous estimation of multiple chemical parameters in plants, thereby making a contribution to the existing body of research in this field.

Cabbage (Brassica oleracea L. var. capitata) plays a very important role in the annual national vegetable supply and export trade. In recent years, the cadmium content of agricultural soils has increased. As a result, cabbage yields and quality have declined significantly. Studies have shown that selenium can counteract the harmful effects of cadmium on plants and can alleviate the stress caused by cadmium during the growth of plants. However, the mechanism of exogenous selenium application in the alleviation of cadmium stress in cabbage seedlings has not been thoroughly investigated. In this study, exogenous selenium (10μMol/L) was applied under cadmium (25μMol/L) stress and the physiological mechanisms such as biomass, photosynthetic pigment, leaf stomata parameters, selenium and cadmium content, chloroplast ultrastructure, active oxygen accumulation, leaf membrane esterification and antioxidant enzyme activity were determined. The protective mechanism of exogenous selenium on cabbage seedlings under cadmium stress was investigated. The re-sults showed that exogenous application of selenium could effectively alleviate the decrease in growth, photosynthetic pigment and gas exchange characteristics of cabbage seedlings under cadmium stress, im-prove cabbage root vitality, reduce root leaf cadmium content and alleviate cadmium stress-induced damage. Ultrastructural observation showed that cadmium stress caused the disruption of the internal structure of chloroplasts of cabbage leaves, while exogenous selenium treatment alleviated the chloroplast damage to some extent, improved the stability of the inner capsule membrane and alleviated the cadmium stress-induced damage to photosynthetic organs. Cadmium stress also caused oxidative damage and ex-cessive accumulation of ROS in the leaves of cabbage seedlings as evidenced by significant accumulation of O2-, H2O2, MDA and electrolyte leakage. On the other hand, after exogenous selenium treatment, cadmium stress- induced oxidative damage could be reduced by up-regulating the activities of antioxidant enzymes SOD, POD and APX. At the same time, cadmium stress significantly increased GSH levels, and exogenous selenium treatment further increased GSH levels, thereby increasing the tolerance of cabbage to cadmium stress. In conclusion, by protecting the photosynthetic system, eliminating excessive accumulation of reactive oxygen species in cadmium-stressed cabbage seedlings, alleviating oxidative stress and reducing cadmium levels in the plant, exogenous selenium can further improve cadmium tolerance in cabbage seedlings.

: There remains no acquiescence that confirms the extent to which unemployment and entrepreneurship influence each other in developing countries. Thus, an incessant invite for further debate attracted the need to assess the relationship between unemployment and entrepreneurship in terms of business formation in Namibia Given that, this study examines the relationship between unemployment and entrepreneurial activities in Namibia. Time series data were collected from the World Bank database to investigate the relationship between unemployment and entrepreneurship in Namibia. Unit root test was conducted using both the Augmented Dickey-Fuller test and the Phillips-Perron test to measure stationarity of the data and found all the variables to have no unit root after the first difference. Thus, we employed the Johansen-Juselius test of cointegration, and the results revealed the absence of a long-run relationship between the variables. Hence, we performed a vector autoregressive (VAR) model to estimate the short-run relationships and found that Namibia exhibit both the refugee and Schumpeter effects. Finally, the direction of causality between the variables was measured using the Pairwise Granger causality test and the results revealed that none of the variables was proven to granger cause the other, concluding that they are all independent of each other. Therefore, in pursuit of unemployment mitigation, we recommend policymakers to focus on other aspects beyond entrepreneurship when devising policies without jeopardizing the ease of business start-up procedures. This will incentivize entrepreneurial activities, which can eventually address other macroeconomic issues beyond unemployment.

The decline in Pinus sylvestris var. mongolica in the introduction area has had a high profile in recent years. For the ecological restoration, management and silvicultural design of Mongolian pines in the introduction area, it is necessary to conduct a comprehensive and in-depth study on the ecological adaptation mechanism of Mongolian pines in provenances. The ecological process of water and nutrient accumulation as well as the influence of environmental factors on the photosynthetic physiology are the key to revealing the ecological adaptation mechanism of Mongolian pines. According to the differences of climate in the distribution area of Mongolian pines, sampling sites were set up, the effects of environmental factors on leaf δ13C and the relationship between leaf δ13C and nutrient content were analyzed. The results showed that leaf δ13C values were ranging from - 29.7 ‰ to - 23.76 ‰. The ecological stoichiometry, including LC (522.81 mg·g-1), LN (16.04 mg·g-1), LP (1.19 mg·g-1) and L-N:P (13.56), indicated that leaf photosynthesis and water use efficiency is greatly affected by environmental conditions, Mongolian pines had strong ability of carbon fixation, and its growth was obviously restricted by nitrogen. Although there was no significant correlation between δ13C with stoichiometric parameters in leaf, photosynthesis was the key link in the process of carbon fixation. It also showed that Pinus sylvestris var. mongolica was a stomatal limited plant. Leaf δ13C had significant correlation with climatic factors. VPD is the dynamic factor affecting the photosynthetic physiological process in leaves. Air and soil moisture are the dominate factors affecting the leaf stomatal conductance and determines leaf δ13C value, while other factors indirectly affect leaf δ13C by its impact on relative humidity or soil water content. Soil phosphorus content affected by clay is a key factor affecting soil water availability and soil nutrient cycling. Photosynthetic process in leaf is the dynamic process affecting the nutrient accumulation.

This study investigates the impact of fintech, particularly blockchain technology and non-fungible tokens (NFTs), on the art market. As fintech has been widely accepted, the art market has undergone transformations, including increased transaction transparency, enhanced liquidity, improved risk management capabilities, reduced entry barriers to the market, and more developed copyright protection. Using a Vector Autoregression (VAR) model, this paper clarifies the significant effects of fintech, especially the NFTs, on the size and profitability of the art market. The findings not only emphasize the importance of NFTs in developing the art market and increasing investment returns but also provide insights and constructive suggestions for the future growth and sustainable development of the art market. By fostering transparency, efficiency, and accessibility, fintech contributes to a more resilient and sustainable art market, ensuring its long-term prosperity and cultural enrichment.

The use of phosphate-solubilizing fungi in coffee cultivation is an alternative with which to reduce the use of fertilizers. The objective of this study was to analyze the mechanisms involved in the phosphorus solubilization of the fungal strains and to evaluate the effect of a phosphate-solubilizing strain on the coffee plants. For this, phosphorus-solubilizing fungal strains were selected for evaluation of their solubilization potential and phosphatase activity. Coffee plants were inoculated in the field with a phosphate solubilizing strain, and soil and foliar soluble phosphorus, as well as coffee bean yield, were quantified. Of the 151 strains analyzed, Aspergillus niger, Penicillium waksmanii, and Penicillium brevicompactum showed the highest solubilization. Aspergillus niger and P. waksmanii presented the highest soluble phosphorus values; however, P. brevicompactum showed the highest phosphatase activity. The P. brevicompactum strain inoculated on the coffee plants did not favor foliar phosphorus content but increased the soil soluble phosphorus content in two of the coffee plantations. The plants inoculated with the phosphate solubilizing strain showed an increase in coffee bean weight on all plantations, although this increase was only significant in two of the three selected coffee plantations.

Using the onset of the COVID 19 pandemic, this chapter examines the cryptocurrencies as safe haven investment for stocks of our time varying realization as to the economic chock centralized by the growing pandemic. Using daily data of COVID 19 measures and daily prices for 4 cryptocurrencies and 4 stocks assets for the whole year 2020, we apply both the VAR-DCC-GARCH and Wavelet Coherency models. New evidence of our chapter find that the Bitcoin and Etherum are highly correlated in the short and long horizon with the selected stocks. However for the case of the Litecoin and the XRP are correlated negatively with the stocks in the whole COVID19 period. We find evidence that, Bitcoin is strong safe haven asset for all the selected stocks during the COVID19 era, while the Litecoin is weak safe haven investment for all the stocks and the XRP is with lowest potential of safe haven investment for all the studied stocks. Within the study we are providing a diversification of hedging for the investors and policy makers suggesting that the cryptocurrencies acted as safe haven investment similar to the precious metals during historic crisis and as fiat money for any economic shocks might occurred. The abstract should summarize the contents of the paper in short terms, i.e. 150-250 words.

In recent years, the high-frequency abnormal price fluctuations of small-scale agricultural products have been detrimental to market stability. The traditional method based on statistical data of production factors can no longer accurately predict abnormal price fluctuations. Taking scallions as a case, the paper identifies price influencing factors from massive network information, and analyzes the causes and changing characteristics of price fluctuations from four perspectives: market supply, economic environment and market sentiment, and attention. Initially, the study employs an LDA topic model to extract factors from online sentiment data over the past four years, including market supply and demand, economic conditions, related agricultural prices, and market attention. Subsequently, using the SO-PMI algorithm to expand domain-specific lexicons and employing semantic and sentiment analysis with syntactic parsing, the study aims to improve the accuracy of sentiment quantification in text analysis. Furthermore, cointegration and Granger causality tests validate the significant impact of these factors on scallion price fluctuations, mitigating spurious regression issues. Finally, by employing a TVP-VAR model, the study compares the impulse responses and shock magnitudes of various factors in different time and spatial dimensions. It also delves into the mechanisms of heterogeneous impacts and trends in scallion prices, considering the corresponding socio-economic context and public sentiment events within specific time windows, thereby providing valuable decision-making insights for the healthy development of agricultural markets.

During the night between 9 and 10 September 2017, multiple flash floods associated to a heavy-precipitation event affected the town of Livorno, located in Tuscany, Italy. Accumulated precipitation exceeding 200 mm in two hours, associated with a return period higher than 200 years, caused all the largest streams of the Livorno municipality to flood several areas of the town. We used the limited-area Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, in a convection-permitting setup, to reconstruct the extreme event leading to the flash floods. We evaluated possible forecasting improvements emerging from the assimilation of local ground stations and X- and S-band radar data into the WRF, using the configuration operational at the meteorological center of Tuscany region (LaMMA) at the time of the event. Simulations were verified against weather station observations, through an innovative method aimed at disentangling the positioning and intensity errors of precipitation forecasts. By providing more accurate descriptions of the low-level flow and a better assessment of the atmospheric water vapour, the results demonstrate that assimilating radar data improved the quantitative precipitation forecasts.

In this paper, a novel biocompatible alloy defined as FeMoTaTiZr was obtained and functionalized by hydroxyapatite-based coatings (HAP) in order to increase their biocompatibility, bioactivity, and resistance to corrosion for to be used as bone implants. To obtain the surface with antibacterial properties, the HAP coatings were doped with small amount of Zn. The alloy was prepared using the VAR (Vacuum Arc Remelting) equipment, while the coatings by RF magnetron sputtering method. The EDS analysis confirmed the presence of Ca and P in the case of all developed coatings, having Ca/P or Ca/(P+Zn) ratio of about 1.70 and 1.66, respectively. The XRD and ATR-FTIR investigations confirmed the presence of calcium phosphate phases. The roughness of uncoated substrates increased after coating with HAP, and it was considerably increased by the Zn addition. The electrochemical tests showed that the un-doped HAP exhibited good corrosion behavior, while Zn doped HAP coatings have a high dissolution rate in fetal bovine serum, being more proper as a biodegradable material.

A novel approach based on response surface methodology (RSM) was developed to predict and apply the best extraction conditions for the isolation of various-type polyphenolic antioxidants from the dried flower buds of Magnolia x soulangeana Soul.-Bod. var. ‘Lennei’ (Magnoliaceae). As a method of choice, ultrasound-assisted extraction was used and the optimized extraction parameters (temperature, time of extraction, the composition of aqueous-ethanolic extractants and solvent to solid ratio) have been determined using a central composite design factorial analysis, followed by appropriate spectrophotometric methods (with Folin–Ciocalteu and 2,2-diphenyl-1-picrylhydrazyl reagents) to determine the antioxidant and antiradical potential of extracts, respectively. The use of 66.8% (V/V) ethanol, as the extraction solvent during the 55.2 min extraction protocol, and the ratio of extractant volume to herbal substance of 46.8 mL/g gave the highest total yield of bioactive antioxidant phenolics in the extract obtained. For this herbal preparation, qualitative and quantitative analysis was performed using combined chromatographic (LC), spectroscopic (PDA) and tandem mass spectrometric (ESI-QTOF–MS/MS) techniques. A detailed phytochemical profiling, conducted for the first time, documented substantial amounts of polyphenolic antioxidants, especially phenylethanoids and flavonoids in the flower buds of M. soulangeana ‘Lennei’. Their average total content exceeded 30.3 and 36.5 mg/g dry weight, respectively.

In this paper, we investigate the “statics and dynamics” return and volatility spillovers transmission across developed and developing countries. Quoted against the U.S. dollar, we study twenty-three global currencies over 2005 – 2016. Focusing on the spillover index methodology, the generalised VAR framework is employed. Our findings indicate no evidence of bi-directional return and volatility spillovers between developed and developing countries. However, a unidirectional volatility spillover from developed to developing countries is highlighted. Furthermore, our findings document significant bi-directional volatility spillovers within the European region (Eurozone and non-Eurozone currencies) with the British Pound (GBP) and the Euro (EUR) as the most significant transmitters of volatility. The findings reiterate the prominence of volatility spillovers to financial regulators.

Torenia Concolor Lindley var. formosama Yamazaki ethanolic extract (TCEE) is reported to have anti-inflammatory and anti-obesity properties. However, the effects of TCEE and its underlying mechanisms in the activation of endothelial nitric oxide synthase (eNOS) have not yet been investigated. Increasing the endothelium-derived nitric oxide (NO) production has been known to be beneficial against the development of cardiovascular diseases. In this study, we investigated the effect of TCEE on eNOS activation and NO-related endothelial function and inflammation by using in vitro system. In endothelial cells (ECs), TCEE increased NO production in a concentration-dependent a manner without affecting the expression of eNOS. In addition, TCEE increased the phosphorylation of eNOS at serine 635 residue (Ser635) and Ser1179, Akt at Ser473, calmodulin kinase II (CaMKII) at threonine residue 286 (Thr286) and AMP-activated protein kinase (AMPK) at Thr172. Moreover, TCEE-induced NO production, and EC proliferation, migration and tube formation were diminished by pretreatment with LY294002 (an Akt inhibitor), KN62 (a CaMKII inhibitor) and compound C (an AMPK inhibitor). Additionally, TCEE attenuated the tumor necrosis factor-α-induced inflammatory response as evidenced by the expression of adhesion molecules in ECs and monocyte adhesion onto ECs. These inflammatory effects of TCEE were abolished by L-NG-nitroarginine methyl ester (a NOS inhibitor). Collectively, our findings suggest that TCEE confers protection from endothelial dysfunction by activating the Akt/CaMKII/AMPK/eNOS/NO signaling pathway.

Total Nigeria Plc is a Marketing and Services subsidiary of Total; a multinational energy company operating in more than 130 countries and committed to providing sustainable products and services for its customers. For over 50 years, Total Nigeria Plc has remained the leader in the downstream sector of the Nigerian oil and gas industry. This study investigated the volatility of the stock price of Total Petroleum Nigeria plc using nine (9) GARCH models namely sGARCH, gjrGARCH, eGARCH, iGARCH, aPARCH, TGARCH, NGARCH, NAGARCH and AVGARCH. We also investigated the Value-at-Risk (VaR) and Backtesting of the Models. The aim actually of this study is to boost the confidence of the shareholders and investors of the Total Nigeria plc. To achieve this, daily stock price for Total petroleum Nigeria plc from secondary was collected from January 2^nd 2001 to May 8^th 2017. . The study used both normal and student t innovations, using Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) to select the best model, for normal innovations for log returns and cleansed log returns of Total plc, the eGARCH and sGARCH models performed best respectively, while NGARCH model performed best for student t innovation for both log returns and cleansed returns of Total plc. The persistence of the models are stable except in few cases where iGARCH, eGARCH where not stable. Also for student t innovation, the sGARCH and gjrGARCH fails to converge. The mean-reverting number of day for the returns of Total Nigeria plc differs from model to model. Evidence from the VaR Analysis revealed from the selected models revealed that the Risk of VaR losses is high at 99% confidence level, slightly high at 95% confidence level and better at 90% confidence level. Although The Duration-Based Tests of independence conducted revealed that the models are correctly specified since in all cases the null hypotheses were accepted. This means that the probability of an exception on any day did not depends on the outcome of the previous day. Finally, both the unconditional (Kupiec) and conditional (Christoffersen) coverage tests for the correct number of exceedances for both Total stock returns and cleansed returns. The tests revealed rejection of the models at 1% level of significance. This confirms that unconditional (Kupiec) and conditional (Christoffersen) coverage tests for the correct number of exceedances are reliable compared to the Duration-Based Tests of independence. Therefore we recommend that shareholders and investors in Total Nigeria plc are to remain and continue to investment in Total Nigeria plc because if there is any form of losses, the price of the stock has the potentials to improve in the future. Again, though the risk is high at 99% confidence level, this in line with the financial theory that states that an asset with high expected risk would pay higher return on the average.

Ice covering on overhead transmission lines would cause damage to transmission system and long-term power outage. Among various de-icing devices, modular multilevel converter (MMC) based DC de-icer (MMC-DDI) is recognized as a promising solution due to its excellent technical performance. Its principle feasibility has been well studied, but few literature discuss its economy or hardware optimization, thus the designed MMC-DDI for high voltage transmission lines is usually too large and too expensive for engineering applications. To fill this gap, this paper presents a quantitative analysis on the converter characteristics of MMC-DDI, and calculates the minimal converter rating and its influencing factors. It reals that, for a given de-icing requirement, the converter rating varies greatly with its AC-side voltage. Then an optimization configuration is proposed to reduce the converter rating and improve its economy. The proposed configuration is verified in a MMC-DDI for a 500kV transmission line as a case study. The result shows, in the case of outputting same de-icing characteristics, the optimized converter rating is reduced from 151 MVA to 68 MVA, and total cost of MMC-DDI is reduced by 48%. This analysis and conclusion are conductive to the optimized design of multilevel DC de-icer, then to its engineering application.

The Solvency II regulatory framework specifies procedures and parameters for determining solvency capital requirements (SCRs) for insurance companies. The proposed standard SCR calculations involve two steps. The Value–at–Risk (VaR) of each risk driver is measured and, in a second step, all components are aggregated to the company’s overall SCR, using the Standard Formula. This formula has two inputs: the VaRs of the individual risk drivers and their correlations. The appropriate calibration of these input parameters has been the purpose of various Quantitative Impact Studies that have been conducted during recent years. This paper demonstrates that the parameter calibration for the equity–risk module—overall, with about 25%, the most significant risk component—is seriously flawed, giving rise to spurious and highly erratic parameter values. As a consequence, an implementation of the Standard Formula with the currently proposed calibration settings for equity–risk is likely to produce inaccurate, biased and, over time, highly erratic capital requirements.

Since the mid-1990s probiotics have been proven to support the treatment of several gastrointestinal diseases. Additionally, probiotics have been taken as a common panacea for civilization diseases. To date, the only probiotic yeasts with evidence of health-promoting effects are Saccharomyces cerevisiae var. boulardii. The probiotic properties are strain-dependent, whereby it is crucial to develop methods to verify the probiotic-enriched food authentication including the growing number of dietary supplements with simplified commercialisation procedures. Due to the significant genetic similarity of S. cerevisiae var. boulardii to S. cerevisiae, qPCR-HRM analysis was tested, which has a very high sensitivity for polymorphism detection and enables simultaneous identification of the microorganism in the presence of the reference sample. The effectiveness of interspecies primer pairs and intragenus primer pairs designed to amplify heterogeneous regions was examined. HRM analysis using primers for 18SrRNA and ITS allowed for identification of S. cerevisiae var. boulardii at the species level. S. cerevisiae var. boulardii was efficiently identified at the variety level with amplification of HO and RPB2 in the single- and multi-component DNA extracts. The RPB2 amplicon showed the highest intraspecies differentiation power. The predominance of S. cerevisiae var. boulardii in the mixtures tested was crucial for identification using qPCR-HRM analysis and quantitatively corresponded to the strain content in the probiotic-enriched food matrices.

This report provides a comprehensive analysis of portfolio risk management using Value at Risk (VaR) for a banking sector investment portfolio. We evaluate a portfolio composed of SBI, HDFC, Axis Bank, and ICICI Bank, using historical data from July 1, 2023, to June 30, 2024. The report covers the calculation of VaR, portfolio variance, and standard deviation, highlighting the impact of different weightage adjustments on the portfolio’s risk profile. Two scenarios—one with increased weightage in SBI and another with increased weightage in HDFC—demonstrate how changes in asset allocation affect potential losses. The findings emphasize the importance of strategic asset allocation for both speculators and hedgers. Speculators are advised to focus on high volatility and market trends, while hedgers should prioritize stability and risk management. This analysis aids investors in making informed decisions to balance risk and return in their banking sector investments.

Perilla frutense var. acuta (Lamiaceae) has been used to treat indigestion, asthma, and allergies in traditional medicine. In this study, luteolin 7-O-diglucuronide (1), apigenin 7-O-diglucuronide (2), and rosmarinic acid (3) were isolated from the leaves of P. frutescens var. acuta. Various approaches were performed to investigate the anti-inflammatory activity of the isolated compounds (1-3) and their working mechanisms. In silico docking simulation demonstrated that 1-3 would work as a PPAR-α/δ/γ agonist, and in vitro PPAR-α/δ/γ transcriptional assay showed that the Perilla extract and 3 increased PPAR-α luciferase activity [1.71 and 1.61 times of the control (PPAR-α + PPRE, p < 0.001)]. In the NF-κB luciferase assay, 1 suppressed NF-κB activity the most (56.83 % at 5 µM; 74.96 % at 10 µM; 79.86 % at 50 µM). In addition, 1 and 2 inhibited the mRNA expression of NF-κB target genes, including Il6, Mcp1, and Tnfa, at 50 µM, and 3 suppressed the genes at the mRNA level in a dose-dependent manner. We report that 1 and 2 exert anti-inflammatory effects through NF-κB inhibition, and PPAR-α/NF-κB signaling pathway is related to the anti-inflammatory activity of 3.

Carotenoid and carotenoid esters profiles of peel, pulp and whole fruit tissues of astringent persimmon (Diospyrus kaki Thunb., var. Rojo Brillante) have been characterized in detail and quantified for the first time. Carotenoids were determined by HPLC-PDA-MS/MS (APCI+), using a reverse phase C30 column. A total of 38 carotenoids were identified and quantified, corresponding to 21 free carotenoids (13 xanthophylls and 8 hydrocarbon carotenes) and a total of 17 carotenoid esters. The qualitative profiles are very similar among tissues, differing only in the carotenoids concentration. The most important identified free xanthophylls were (all-E)-β-cryptoxanthin, (all-E)-antheraxanthin, (all-E)-lutein, (all-E)-zeaxanthin and (all-E)-violaxanthin . Hydrocarbon carotenoids found were (all-E)-β-carotene, (all-E)-α-carotene, (9Z)-β-carotene, (13Z)-β-carotene, (9Z)-α-carotene, and lycopene. The most abundant carotenoid esters were (all-E)-lutein-3-O-palmitate, (all-E)-zeaxanthin myristate, (all-E)-zeaxanthin palmitate and (all-E)-cryptoxanthin laurate. Processing by high pressures produced no regular effect on persimmon carotenoids and pasteurization affected negatively the content of all carotenoids from all studied persimmon tissues. This work will contribute to the development of scientific research about the bioaccessibity and bioavailabity of each individual free or esterified persimmon carotenoids in order to a better understanding of the carotenoid compounds impact in human health.

The integration of deep learning models into financial risk prediction and analysis has significantly transformed traditional approaches. While conventional quantitative methods often rely on simplistic metrics like maximum drawdown, the advent of deep learning necessitates a more nuanced evaluation, emphasizing the model's generalization ability, especially during market crises such as stock market crashes. This paper explores the critical aspects of evaluating deep learning models' risk control capabilities in finance, underscoring the importance of understanding both statistical metrics and generalization abilities, particularly in adverse market conditions. By examining deep learning models' performance in scenarios like stock market crashes and highlighting the significance of cross-validation techniques, this study aims to offer practitioners insights into constructing robust risk management systems. It advocates for a comprehensive approach integrating quantitative analysis with macroeconomic factors to enhance financial risk prediction and analysis in volatile markets. The experimentation reveals that different deep generative models excel in various aspects of financial time series analysis, with generative adversarial networks (GANs) demonstrating superior performance in predicting Value at Risk (VaR) and variational autoencoders (VAEs) excelling in return rate prediction. Moreover, integrating multiple models further enhances predictive performance, leveraging the strengths of each model to compensate for individual weaknesses. Overall, this paper underscores the potential and significance of deep generative models in financial time series analysis, offering a roadmap for improved risk management and decision-making in financial markets.

Fructus Amomi (FA) is usually regarded as the dried ripe fruits of Amomum villosum Lour. (FAL) or Amomum villosum Lour. var. xanthioides T. L.Wu et Senjenis (FALX) However, FAL, which always has a much higher price because of its better quality, is confused with FALX in the market. As volatile oil is the main constituent of FA, a strategy of chromatography-mass spectrometry (GC-MS) and chemometric approches was applied to compare the chemical composition of FAL and FALX. The results showed that the oil yield of FAL was significantly higher than that of FALX. Total ion chromatograph (TIC) showed that cis-nerolidol existed only in FALX. Bornyl acetate and camphor, could be considered as the most important ones in FAL and FALX respectively. Moreover, hierarchical cluster analysis (HCA) and principal component analysis (PCA) successfully distinguished the chemical constitutes of the volatile oils in FAL and FALX. Additionally, bornyl acetate, α-cadinol, linalool, β-myrcene, camphor, d-limonene, terpinolene and endo-borneol were selected as the potential markers for discriminating FAL and FALX by partial least squares discrimination analysis (PLS-DA). In conclusion, this present study first developed a scientific approach to separate FAL and FALX based on volatile oils by GC-MS combined with chemometric techniques.

The evaluation of geometric defects is necessary in order to maintain the integrity of structures over time. These assessments are designed to detect damages of structures and ideally help inspectors to estimate the remaining life of structures. Current methodologies for monitoring structural systems, while providing useful information about the current state of a structure, are limited in the monitoring of defects over time and in linking them to predictive simulation. This paper presents a new approach to the predictive modeling of geometric defects. A combination of segmented from point clouds are parametrized using the convex hull algorithm to extract features from detected defects, and a stochastic dynamic model is then adapted to these features to model the evolution of the hull over time. Describing a defect in terms of its parameterized hull enables consistent temporal tracking for predictive purposes, while implicitly reducing data dimensionality and complexity as well. In this study, 2D point clouds analogous to information derived from point clouds were first generated over simulated life-cycles. The evolutions of point cloud hull parameterizations were modeled as stochastic dynamical processes via autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) and vectorized autoregression (VAR) and compared against ground truth. The results indicate that this convex hull approach provides consistent and accurate representations of defect evolution across a range of defect topologies and is reasonably robust to noisy measurements, however assumptions regarding the underlying dynamical process play a significant the role in predictive accuracy. The results were then validated on experimental data from fatigue testing with high accuracy. Longer term, the results of this work will support finite element model updating for predictive analysis of structural capacity.

In this paper a dynamic relationship between the CO2 emissions in Finland, Norway and Sweden is presented. With the help of a VAR(2) model, and using the Granger terminology, it is shown that the emissions in Finland are affecting those in Norway and Sweden. Other aspects of this dynamic relationship are presented as well.

This study aims to clarify the influence of photographic environments under different light sources on image-based SPAD value prediction. Radish leaf patches of 1.5 cm diameter were photographed under halogen or LED light. The input variables for the SPAD value prediction using random forests were RGB values, HSL values, and HSV values. Additionally, the light color temperature (LCT) and illuminance (ILL) were used as the input variables. Model performance was assessed using Pearson’s correlation coefficient (COR), Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE), and root mean squared error (RMSE). SPAD value prediction resulted in high accuracy in a stable light environment; CORRGB+ILL+LCT and CORHSL+ILL+LCT were 0.929 and 0.922, respectively. Image-based SPAD value prediction was effective under halogen light with a similar color temperature at dusk; CORRGB+ILL and CORHSL+ILL were 0.895 and 0.876, respectively. The HSL value under LED could be used to predict the SPAD value with high accuracy; COR, NSE, and RMSE were 0.972, 0.944, and 2.07, respectively. The partial dependence plots of the H value indicate a change from blue to green with increasing SPAD values. Further studies are required to examine this method under outdoor conditions in spatiotemporally dynamic light environments.

Cryptocurrencies have obtained a crucial position in the international financial landscape. The cryptocurrency market has been perceived as a highly volatile market since the inception of Bitcoin. This study investigates the relevant performance of extreme value models (EVM) in estimating the Value-at-Risk (VaR) of Bitcoin and Ethereum returns. The extreme value mixture models, GPD-Normal-GPD (GNG) and GPD-KDE-GPD models are fitted to the returns of Bitcoin and Ethereum and the Kupiec likelihood backtesting procedure is performed on the VaR estimates to assess the fits. Both models’ results showed that the fits were a much more decent representation of the observed data when compared to the Normal distribution. The backtesting results showed that the GPD-KDE-GPD model’s fit was superior to that of the GPD-Normal-GPD for both sets of returns at all VaR risk levels except at the 99% level. The results of this study may assist with understanding the dynamics and risks associated with cryptocurrencies and can serve as a beneficial tool for decision-making and risk management to investors, traders, financial institutions and many other participants in the cryptocurrency ecosystem.

We examine data assimilation coupling between meteorology and chemistry in the stratosphere from both weak and strong coupling strategies. The study was performed with the Canadian operational weather prediction Global Environmental Multiscale (GEM) model coupled online with the photochemical stratospheric chemistry developed at the Belgian Institute for Space Aeronomy, described in Part I. Here, the Canadian Meteorological Centre’s operational variational assimilation system was extended to include errors of chemical variables and cross-covariances between meteorological and chemical variables in a 3D-Var configuration, and we added the adjoint of tracer advection in the 4D-Var configuration. Our results show that the assimilation of limb sounding observations from the MIPAS instrument on board Envisat can be used to anchor the AMSU-A radiance bias correction scheme. Also, the added value of limb sounding temperature observations on meteorology and transport is shown to be significant. Weak coupling data assimilation with ozone-radiation interaction is shown to give comparable on meteorology whether a simplified linearized or comprehensive ozone chemistry scheme is used. Strong coupling data assimilation, using static error cross-covariances between ozone and temperature in a 3D-Var context, produced inconclusive results with the approximations we used. We have also conducted the assimilation of long-lived species observations using 4D-Var to infer winds. Our results showed the added value of assimilating several long-lived species, and an improvement in the zonal wind in the Tropics within the troposphere and lower stratosphere. 4D-Var assimilation also induced a correction of zonal wind in the surf zone and a temperature bias in the lower tropical stratosphere