Preprint Article Version 1 Preserved in Portico This version is not peer-reviewed

Impact of Macroeconomic Variables on Housing Prices in Saudi Arabia: A VAR Approach

Version 1 : Received: 28 December 2020 / Approved: 29 December 2020 / Online: 29 December 2020 (08:26:12 CET)

How to cite: Ahmed, D.E.E.A. Impact of Macroeconomic Variables on Housing Prices in Saudi Arabia: A VAR Approach. Preprints 2020, 2020120715 (doi: 10.20944/preprints202012.0715.v1). Ahmed, D.E.E.A. Impact of Macroeconomic Variables on Housing Prices in Saudi Arabia: A VAR Approach. Preprints 2020, 2020120715 (doi: 10.20944/preprints202012.0715.v1).

Abstract

This paper examines how housing prices are determined by macroeconomic factors in Saudi Arabia, namely, Gross Domestic Product Per capita (GDPP), Consumer Prices Index (CPI), and Unemployment Rate (UNEMP). Quarterly data for a period (2014q1 – 2019q4) were collected from publications of Saudi Arabian Monetary Authority (SAMA). Vector Autoregression Analysis (VAR) is employed to capture the dynamic effect of the variables on housing prices. Granger Causality, Variance Decomposition and Impulse response function are also used. The results show that housing prices are insignificantly and positively related to GDPP, whereas it is negatively related to both (CPI & UNEMP). Only CPI has a significant relationship. The three variables, jointly, have Granger causality on HPI. Variance decompositions show that CPI is the variable with the highest explanatory power over the variation of housing prices, followed by GDPP and the UNEMP respectively indicating that CPI is the most influential determinants for housing prices.

Subject Areas

CPI; GDP; real estate; unemployment; VAR

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