With the ongoing fifth-generation cellular network (5G) deployment, electromagnetic field exposure has become a critical concern. However, measurements are scarce, and accurate electromagnetic field reconstruction in a geographic region remains challenging. This work proposes a conditional Generative Adversarial Network to address this issue. The main objective is to reconstruct the electromagnetic field exposure map accurately according to the environment’s topology from a few sensors located in an outdoor urban environment. The model is trained to learn and estimate the propagation characteristics of the electromagnetic field according to the topology of a given environment. In addition, the conditional Generative Adversarial Network based electromagnetic field mapping is compared with simple kriging. Results show that the proposed method produces accurate estimates and is a promising solution for exposure map reconstruction.

It is a challenging issue to provide a secure and conditional anonymous authentication scheme in vehicle ad hoc networks(VANETs) with low storage space and computational cost. In 2008, Lu et al. [8] proposed an conditional privacy preservation scheme called ECPP protocol. The ECPP protocol provides conditional privacy preservation to vehicles in VANETs, that is, on one hand vehicles can achieve anonymous authentication in the network, on the other hand allow to be traced and revoked if necessary. However, ECPP scheme suffers from large storage and high computational cost. In our scheme, an improved protocol based on the concept of ECPP protocol has been proposed, which uses minimal interaction steps, little storage space and less computation overhead to achieve more efficiency conditional privacy preservation(MECPP) scheme in VANETs.

This paper is devoted to change-point detection using only the ordinal structure of a time series. A statistic based on the conditional entropy of ordinal patterns characterizing the local up and down in a time series is introduced and investigated. The statistic requires only minimal a priori information on given data and shows good performance in numerical experiments.

In this work, we treat a prediction problem via the conditional hazard function of a scalar response variable Y given a functional random variable X by using the local linear technique. The main purpose of this paper is to investigate the asymptotic normality of the nonparametric estimator of the conditional hazard function, under some general conditions. A simulation study, conducted to assess finite sample behavior, demonstrates the superiority of our method than the standard kernel method

We propose a novel method for salient object detection in different images. Our method integrates spatial features for efficient and robust representation to capture meaningful information about the salient objects. We then train a conditional random field (CRF) using the integrated features. The trained CRF model is then used to detect salient objects during the online testing stage. We perform experiments on two standard datasets and compare the performance of our method with different reference methods. Our experiments show that our method outperforms the compared methods in terms of precision, recall, and F-Measure.

In every agricultural setting, weed seeds can be found in every cubic centimeter of soil. Weed seeds, as a valuable trait underlying the fate of weed populations, exhibit differing levels of seed dormancy, ensuring their survival under uncertain conditions. Seed dormancy is considered as an innate mechanism that constrains germination under suitable conditions that would otherwise stimulate germination of non-dormant seeds. This work provides new insight into changes in germination patterns along the dormant to nondormancy continuum in seeds with physiological dormancy. Notable findings are: (1) germination synchrony can act as a new parameter that quantitatively describes dormancy patterns and subsequently weed population dynamics, (2) germination synchrony is dynamic, suggesting that the more dormancy decreases, the more synchrony is obtainable, (3) after-ripening and stratification can function as a synchronizing agent that regulates germination behavior. Brassica napus showed the most synchronous germination with the value of 3.14, while lower level of germination asynchrony was for Sinapis arvensis, with the asynchrony value of 2.25. After-ripening and stratification can act as a synchronizing factor through decreasing asynchrony level and increasing synchrony. Weed establish a firm relationship between dormancy cycling and germination synchrony patterns, ensuring their survival and reproductive strategies. By germinating in synchrony, which is accompanied by cycling mechanisms, weeds have more opportunities to persist. The synchrony model used in the present study predicts germination behavior and synchrony along the dormant to nondormancy continuum in weed seeds with physiological dormancy, suggesting a useful method for quantification of germination strategies and weed population dynamics.

In this paper we consider the congruence problem that arises in the post-analysis of Bayesian network models reconstructed from different datasets. Apart from the structure, a typical network numerically encodes relationship intensities, assigning numerical score to network edges via the scoring criterion used in the reconstruction process. This scoring is rarely a directly interpretable quantity with proper units of measure and an absolute scale, and often comes short in desirable characteristics of a true metric. This leads to poor portability of edge magnitude considerations between similar networks, originating from different sources. In this work, we address this problem by estimating the effect that data-specific resolution limit has on conditional independence, as reflected by information-theoretic entropy, and by the appropriate modification of MDL score, which removes the inconsistency between the score components in both the meaning and units. We also numerically validate our findings and expose additional performance advantages obtained via this modification.

This paper investigates the dynamic tail dependence risk between BRICS economies and world energy market in the context of the COVID-19 financial crisis of 2020, to determine optimal investment decisions based on risk metrics. For this purpose, the study employs a combination of novel statistical techniques ranging from Markov Switching, GARCH and Vine copula. Using a dataset consisting of daily stock and world crude oil prices; we find high probability of transition between lower and higher volatility regimes. Furthermore, our results based on the C-Vine copula confirm the existence of two types of tail dependence: - symmetric tail dependence between South Africa and China; South Africa and Russia; and lower tail dependence between South Africa and India; South Africa and Brazil; South Africa and Oil. For the purpose of diversification in these markets, we formulate an asset allocation problem using C-vine copula-based returns and optimize it using Particle Swarm algorithm with a rebalancing strategy. The results show an inverse relationship between the risk contribution and asset allocation of South Africa and oil market supporting the existence of lower tail dependence between them. This suggests that when South African stocks are in distress, investors tend to shift their holdings in oil market. Similar results are found between China and oil. In the upper tail, South African asset allocation is found to have an inverse relationship with that of Brazil, Russia and India suggesting that these three markets might be good investment destinations when things are not good in South Africa and vice-versa.

Conditional generative adversarial networks (CGANs) learn a mapping from conditional input to observed image and perform tasks in image generation, manipulation and translation. In-situ monitoring uses sensors to obtain real-time information of additive manufacturing (AM) processes that relate to process stability and part quality. Understanding the correlations between process inputs and in-situ process signatures through machine learning can enable experimental-driven predictions of future process inputs. In this research, in-situ data obtained during a metallic powder bed fusion AM process is mapped with a CGAN. A single build of two turbine blades is monitored using EOSTATE Exposure OT, a near-infrared optical tomography system of the EOS M290 system. Layerwise images generated from the in-situ monitoring system were paired with a conditional image that labeled the specimen cross-section, laser-scan stripe overlap and z-distance to part surfaces. A CGAN was trained using the turbine blade data set and employed to generate new in-situ layerwise images for unseen conditional inputs.

Classic game theory is an important field with a long tradition of useful results. Recently, the quantum versions of classical games, such as the Prisoner's Dilemma (PD), have attracted a lot of attention. Similarly, state machines and specifically finite automata have also been under constant and thorough study for plenty of reasons. The quantum analogues of these abstract machines, like the quantum finite automata, have been studied extensively. In this work, we examine some well-known game conditional strategies that have been studied within the framework of the repeated PD game. Then, we try to associate these strategies to proper quantum finite automata that receive them as inputs and recognize them with probability 1, achieving some interesting results. We also study the quantum version of PD under the Eisert-Wilkens-Lewenstein scheme, proposing a novel conditional strategy for the repeated version of this game.

Information-theoretically provable unique true random numbers, which cannot be correlated or controlled by an attacker, can be generated based on quantum measurement of vacuum state and universal-hashing randomness extraction. Quantum entropy in the measurements decides the quality and security of the random number generator (RNG). At the same time, it directly determines the extraction ratio of true randomness from the raw data, in other words, it obviously affects quantum random bits generating rate. In this work, we commit to enhancing quantum entropy content in the vacuum noise based quantum RNG. We have taken into account main factors in this proposal to establish the theoretical model of quantum entropy content, including the effects of classical noise, the optimum dynamical analog-digital convertor (ADC) range, the local gain and the electronic gain of the homodyne system. We demonstrate that by amplifying the vacuum quantum noise, abundant quantum entropy is extractable in the step of post-processing even classical noise excursion, which may be deliberately induced by an eavesdropper, is large. Based on the discussion and the fact that the bandwidth of quantum vacuum noise is infinite, we propose large dynamical range and moderate TIA gain to pursue higher local oscillator (LO) amplification of vacuum quadrature and broader detection bandwidth in homodyne system. High true randomness extraction ratio together with high sampling rate is attainable. Experimentally, an extraction ratio of true randomness of 85.3% is achieved by finite enhancement of the laser power of the LO when classical noise excursions of the raw data is obvious.

Predicting electricity prices is a very important issue in modern society, because the associated decision process under uncertainty requires accurate forecasts for the economic agents involved. In this paper, we apply the decision tree extension of Random Forests to the prediction of electricity prices in Spain, but with the novelty of modeling prices jointly with demand, with the purpose of achieving greater accuracy than with univariate response Random Forests, particularly in price prediction, as well as understanding the effect of the input variables (lagged values of price and demand, current production levels of available energy sources) on the joint of the two outputs. The results are very encouraging, providing significant increase in price prediction accuracy. Also, interesting methodological challenges appear as far as the appropriate choice of the relative weights of price and demand in the joint modeling is concerned and a new procedure to provide the importance variable ranking is proposed. The partykit (package of R software) library allowing for multivariate Random Forests has been used.

We study the existence or absence of non-Shannon inequalities for variables that are related by functional dependencies. Although the power-set on four variables is the smallest Boolean lattice with non-Shannon inequalities there exist lattices with many more variables without non-Shannon inequalities. We search for conditions that excludes the existence of non-Shannon inequalities. It is demonstrated that planar modular lattices cannot have non-Shannon inequalities. The existence of non-Shannon inequalities is related to the question of whether a lattice is isomorphic to a lattice of subgroups of a group.

Railway has been used as one of the most crucial means of transportation in public mobility and economic development. For efficiently operating railways, the electrification system in railway infrastructure, which supplies electric power to trains, is essential facilities for stable train operation. Due to its important role, the electrification system needs to be rigorously and regularly inspected and managed. This paper presents a supervised learning method to classify Mobile Laser Scanning (MLS) data into ten target classes representing overhead wires, movable brackets and poles, which are recognized key objects in the electrification system. In general, the layout of railway electrification system shows a strong regularity of spatial relations among object classes. The proposed classifier is developed based on Conditional Random Field (CRF), which characterizes not only labeling homogeneity at short range, but also the layout compatibility between different object classes at long range in the probabilistic graphical model. This multi-range CRF model consists of a unary term and three pairwise contextual terms. In order to gain computational efficiency, MLS point clouds is converted into a set of line segments where the labeling process is applied. Support Vector Machine (SVM) is used as a local classifier considering only node features for producing the unary potentials of CRF model. As the short-range pairwise contextual term, Potts model is applied to enforce a local smoothness in short-range graph. While, long-range pairwise potentials are designed to enhance spatial regularities of both horizontal and vertical layouts among railway objects. We formulate two long-range pairwise potentials as the log posterior probability obtained by Naïve Bayes classifier. The directional layout compatibilities are characterized in probability look-up tables which represent co-occurrence rate of spatial relations in horizontal and vertical directions. The likelihood function is formulated by multivariate Gaussian distributions. In the proposed multi-range CRF model, the weight parameters to balance four sub-terms are estimated by applying the Stochastic Gradient Descent (SGD). The results show that the proposed multi-range CRF can effectively classify detailed railway elements, representing the average recall of 97.66% and the average precision of 97.07% for all classes.

Fault diagnosis of the gearbox is a decisive part of the modern industry to find the many gearbox defects like gear tooth crack, chipped or broken, etc. But sometimes, the nonstationary properties of vibration signal and low energy of minimal faults make this procedure very challenging. Previously, many types of techniques have been developed for gearbox condition monitoring. But most of the methods are dealing with conventional techniques of the gearbox condition monitoring, such as time-domain analysis or frequency domain analysis. Most of the conventional methods are not suitable for the nonstationary vibration signal. Thus, this paper presents a novel gearbox fault diagnosis technique using conditional temporal moments and an optimizable support vector machine (SVM). This work also presents an integrated features extraction technique based on the standard features, i.e., statistical and spectral features with the combinations of moment features. The impact of the four conditional temporal moments of each gearbox condition is also presented. This work shows that the proposed method successfully classifies and categorizes the gearbox faults at an early stage.

The novel COVID-19 disease is a contagious acute respiratory infectious disease whose causative agent has been demonstrated to be a new virus of the coronavirus family, SARS- CoV-2. Multiple studies have already reported that risk factors for severe disease include older age and the presence of at least one of several underlying health conditions. However, a recent physiopathological report and the French COVID-19 scientific council have postulated a protective effect of tobacco smoking. Thanks to a meta-analysis, we have been able to demonstrate the statistical significance in this regard of twelve series from China, France and in the US, reporting three different smoking status (current smoker,former smoker, with a smoking history) as well as disease severity (with respectively odds-ratio of 1.78 [1.08-3.10], 4.60 [3.13-7.17], 2.74 [0.63-5.89]). Subsequently and using a Bayesian approach we have established that past, and present smoking is associated with more severe COVID-19 outcomes. Finally, we refute claims linking general population smoking status (N=O(10^8) or O(10^9)) to much smaller disease course series (N=O(10^4)). The latter point in particular is presented to stimulate academic discussion, and must be further investigated by well-designed studies.

The use of risk measures such as the Value at Risk (VaR) or Tail Conditional Expectation (TCE) is required by the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision in determining a bank’s risk profile. However, both measures can be shown to have shortcomings in the information that they provide to regulators and investors. In this paper we present an introduction to risk measure calculations before demonstrating the weaknesses of these measures. Through the exploration of specific cases we show how familiar yet differing risk profiles have identical values for combinations of these measures. From this evidence we recommend that a sequence of several risk measures should be used to give a more accurate representation of the risk contained on banking balance sheet.

Generative models for images, audio, text and other low-dimension data have achieved great success in recent years. Generating artificial human movements can also be useful for many applications, including improvement of data augmentation methods for human gesture recognition. The object of this research is to develop a generative model for skeletal human movement, allowing to control the action type of generated motion while keeping the authenticity of the result and the natural style variability of gesture execution. We propose to use a conditional Deep Convolutional Generative Adversarial Network (DC-GAN) applied to pseudo-images representing skeletal pose sequences using Tree Structure Skeleton Image format. We evaluate our approach on the 3D-skeleton data provided in the large NTU RGB+D public dataset. Our generative model can output qualitatively correct skeletal human movements for any of its 60 action classes. We also quantitatively evaluate the performance of our model by computing Frechet Inception Distances, which shows strong correlation to human judgement. Up to our knowledge, our work is the first successful class-conditioned generative model for human skeletal motions based on pseudo-image representation of skeletal pose sequences.

The interpretation of land use and land cover (LULC) is an important issue in the fields of high-resolution remote sensing (RS) image processing and land resource management. Fully training a new or existing convolutional neural network (CNN) architecture for LULC classification requires a large amount of remote sensing images. Thus, fine-tuning a pre-trained CNN for LULC detection is required. To improve the classification accuracy for high resolution remote sensing images, it is necessary to use another feature descriptor and to adopt a classifier for post-processing. A fully connected conditional random fields (FC-CRF), to use the fine-tuned CNN layers, spectral features, and fully connected pairwise potentials, is proposed for image classification of high-resolution remote sensing images. First, an existing CNN model is adopted, and the parameters of CNN are fine-tuned by training datasets. Then, the probabilities of image pixels belong to each class type are calculated. Second, we consider the spectral features and digital surface model (DSM) and combined with a support vector machine (SVM) classifier, the probabilities belong to each LULC class type are determined. Combined with the probabilities achieved by the fine-tuned CNN, new feature descriptors are built. Finally, FC-CRF are introduced to produce the classification results, whereas the unary potentials are achieved by the new feature descriptors and SVM classifier, and the pairwise potentials are achieved by the three-band RS imagery and DSM. Experimental results show that the proposed classification scheme achieves good performance when the total accuracy is about 85%.

This paper studies the contemporaneous relationship between S&P 500 index returns and log-increments of the market volatility index (VIX) via a nonparametric copula method. Specifically, we propose a conditional dependence index to investigate how the dependence between the two series varies across different segments of the market return distribution. We find that: (a) the two series exhibit strong, negative, extreme tail dependence; (b) the negative dependence is stronger in extreme bearish markets than in extreme bullish markets; (c) the dependence gradually weakens as the market return moves toward the center of its distribution, or in quiet markets. The unique dependence structure supports the VIX as a barometer of markets' mood in general. Moreover, applying the proposed method to the S&P 500 returns and the implied variance (VIX²), we find that the nonparametric leverage effect is much stronger than the nonparametric volatility feedback effect, although, in general, both effects are weaker than the dependence relation between the market returns and the log-increments of the VIX.

The interaction between oceanographic, meteorological, and hydrological factors can result in an extreme flooding scenario in the low-lying coastal area, called compound flooding (CF) events. For instance, rainfall and storm surge (or high river discharge) can be driven by the same meteorological, tropical or extra-tropical cyclones, resulting in a CF phenomenon. The trivariate distributional framework can significantly explain compound events' statistical behaviour reducing the associated high-impact flood risk. Resolving heterogenous dependency of the multidimensional CF events by incorporating traditional 3-D symmetric or fully nested Archimedean copula is quite complex. The main challenge is to preserve all lower-level dependencies. An approach based on decomposing the full multivariate density into simple local building blocks via conditional independence called vine or pair-copulas is a much more comprehensive way of approximating the trivariate flood dependence structure. In this study, a parametric vine copula of a drawable (D-vine) structure is introduced in the trivariate modelling of flooding events with 46 years of observations of the west Coast of Canada. This trivariate framework searches dependency by combining the joint impact of annual maximum 24-hr rainfall and the highest storm surge and river discharge observed within the time ±1 day of the highest rainfall event. The D-vine structures are constructed in three alternative ways by permutation of the conditioning variables. The most appropriate D-vine structure is selected using the fitness test statistics and estimating trivariate joint and conditional joint return periods. The investigation confirms that the D-vine copula can effectively define the compound phenomenon's dependency. The failure probability (FP) method is also adopted in assessing the trivariate hydrologic risk. It is observed that hydrologic events defined in the trivariate case produce higher FP than in the bivariate (or univariate) case. It is also concluded that hydrologic risk increases (i) with an increase in the service design life of the hydraulic facilities and (ii) with a decrease in return periods.

Expectation maximization (EM) algorithm is a powerful mathematical tool for estimating statistical parameter when data sample contains hidden part and observed part. EM is applied to learn finite mixture model in which the whole distribution of observed variable is average sum of partial distributions. Coverage ratio of every partial distribution is specified by the probability of hidden variable. An application of mixture model is soft clustering in which cluster is modeled by hidden variable whereas each data point can be assigned to more than one cluster and degree of such assignment is represented by the probability of hidden variable. However, such probability in traditional mixture model is simplified as a parameter, which can cause loss of valuable information. Therefore, in this research I propose a so-called conditional mixture model (CMM) in which the probability of hidden variable is modeled as a full probabilistic density function (PDF) that owns individual parameter. CMM aims to extend mixture model. I also propose an application of CMM which is called adaptive regressive model (ARM). Traditional regression model is effective when data sample is scattered equally. If data points are grouped into clusters, regression model tries to learn a unified regression function which goes through all data points. Obviously, such unified function is not effective to evaluate response variable based on grouped data points. The concept “adaptive” of ARM means that ARM solves the ineffectiveness problem by selecting the best cluster of data points firstly and then evaluating response variable within such best cluster. In order words, ARM reduces estimation space of regression model so as to gain high accuracy in calculation.

This paper aims to quantify the effect of the deadly novel coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic outbreak on Chinese stock market performance. Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index and its component sector indices are examined in this study. The pandemic is represented by a lockdown dummy, new COVID-19 cases and a dummy for 3 February 2020. First, descriptive analysis is performed on these indices to compare their performances before and during the lockdown period. Next, regression analysis with Exponential Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity specification is estimated to quantify the pandemic effect on the Chinese stock market. This paper finds that health care, information technology and telecommunication services sectors were relatively more pandemic-resistant, while other sectors were more severely hurt by the pandemic outbreak. The extent to which each sector was affected by pandemic and sentiments in other financial and commodity markets were reported in details in this paper. The findings of this paper are resourceful for investors to avoid huge loss amid pandemic outburst and the China Securities Regulatory Commission in handling future pandemic occurrence to cool down excessive market sentiments.

In financial time series modelling and forecasting, combining ARMA and GARCH models tend to produce superior and reliable models for volatility persistence, half-life volatility and backtesting (application of model in real life). In Nigeria, banking stocks are mostly traded because of its potential benefits to investors. This study modelled and forecasted the Guaranty Trust (GT) Bank daily stock returns from January 2^nd 2001 to May 8^th 2017 data set collected from a secondary source. The ARMA-GARCH models, persistence, half-life and backtesting were used to analysed the collected data using student t and skewed student t distributions, and the analyses are carried out R environment using rugard and performanceAnaytics Packages. The study revealed that using the lowest information criteria values only could be misleading rather we added the use of backtesing. The ARMA(1,1)-GARCH(1,1) models fitted exhibited high persistency in the daily stock returns while the days it takes for mean-reverting of the models ranges from 5 days to 100 days but unfortunately the models failed backtesting. The results further revealed ARMA(1,1)-eGARCH (2,2) model with student t distribution provides a suitable model for evaluating the GT bank stock returns among the competing models while it takes less than 30 days for the persistence volatility to return back to its average value of the stock returns. This study recommended that researchers should adopt backtesting approach while fitting GARCH models while GT bank stocks investor should be assured that no matter the fluctuations in the stock market, the GT bank stock returns has the ability to returns to its mean price return.

Proteins are the workhorses of the cell that perform biological functions by interacting with other proteins. Many statistical methods for protein-protein interaction (PPI) have been studied without considering time-dependent changes in networks and the functionalities. I introduced a novel method that models PPI networks as being dynamic in nature and evolving time-varying multivariate distribution with Conditional Random Fields (CRF). This research is directed towards implementing this new combinatorial algorithm on massively parallel architectures such as Graphics Processing Units (GPUs) for efficient computations for large scale bioinformatics datasets. I compared Conditional Random Fields (CRF) and the proposed novel method using CRF combined with the Block Coordinate Descent algorithm for human protein-protein interaction data set. Both are implemented on GPU-Accelerated Computing Architecture and the proposed novel method showed the advantages in predicting protein-protein interaction sites. I also show that the proposed approach is more efficient in 6.13% than standalone CRF++ in predicting protein-protein interaction sites.

Object segmentation on remotely-sensed images: aerial (or very high resolution, VHS) images and satellite (or high resolution, HR) images, has been applied to many application domains, especially road extraction in which the segmented objects are served as a mandatory layer in geospatial databases. Several attempts in applying deep convolutional neural network (DCNN) to extract roads from remote sensing images have been made; however, the accuracy is still limited. In this paper, we present an enhanced DCNN framework specifically tailored for road extraction on remote sensing images by applying landscape metrics (LMs) and conditional random fields (CRFs). To improve DCNN, a modern activation function, called exponential linear unit (ELU), is employed in our network resulting in a higher number of and yet more accurate extracted roads. To further reduce falsely classified road objects, a solution based on an adoption of LMs is proposed. Finally, to sharpen the extracted roads, a CRF method is added to our framework. The experiments were conducted on Massachusetts road aerial imagery as well as THEOS satellite imagery data sets. The results showed that our proposed framework outperformed Segnet, the state-of-the-art object segmentation technique on any kinds of remote sensing imagery, in most of the cases in terms of precision, recall, and F1.

Dyadic data contains co-occurrences of objects, which is often modeled by finite mixture model which in turn is learned by expectation maximization (EM) algorithm. Objects in traditional dyadic data are identified by names, causing the drawback which is that it is impossible to extract implicit valuable knowledge under objects. In this research, I propose the so-called attributed dyadic data (ADD) in which each object has an informative attribute and each co-occurrence of two objects is associated with a value. ADD is flexible and covers most of structures / forms of dyadic data. Conditional mixture model (CMM), which is a variant of finite mixture model, is applied into learning ADD. Moreover, a significant feature of CMM is that any co-occurrence of two objects is based on some conditional variable. As a result, CMM can predict or estimate co-occurrent values based on regression model, which extends applications of ADD and CMM.

During the last years some new variants of Permutation entropy have been introduced and applied to EEG analysis, among them a conditional variant and variants using some additional metric information or being based on entropies different from the Shannon entropy. In some situations it is not completely clear what kind of information the new measures and their algorithmic implementations provide. We discuss the new developments and illustrate them for EEG data.

We start with the discussion on misapplication of classical probability theory by Feynman in his analysis of the two slit experiment (by following the critical argumentation of Koopman, Ballentine, and the author of this paper). The seed of Feynman's conclusion on the impossibility to apply the classical probabilistic description for the two slit experiment is treatment of conditional probabilities corresponding to different experimental contexts as unconditional ones. Then we move to the Bell type inequalities. Bell applied classical probability theory in the same manner as Feynman and, as can be expected, he also obtained the impossibility statement. In contrast to Feynman, he formulated his no-go statement not in the probabilistic terms, but by appealing to nonlocality. This note can be considered as a part of the author's attempts for getting rid off nonlocality from quantum physics.

Nonparametric assessments of police technical and scale efficiency is challenging because of the stochastic nature of criminal behavior and because of the subjective dependence on multiple decision criteria, which can lead to a more or less efficiency prospect depending on the regulation, necessity, or organizational objective. There is a trade-off between efficiency and effectiveness in many police performance assessments, i.e., efficient departments (producing more clear-ups with a given resource) are crime-specialized or cannot reproduce those good results effectively on more severe or complex occurrences. This study proposes a combined methodology for carrying out efficiency and effectiveness analysis of Police departments. A conditional non-parametric approach, which allows to include crime as an external factor in the analysis, is combined with a non-compensatory ranking based on the PROMETHEE II methodology for the approach illustrated on the multidimensional efficiency and effectiveness comparison of 145 Pernambuco (Brazil)'s police departments. The application results offer compelling perspectives for public administrations concerning the strategic prioritization of units for rewards or interventions.

Chikungunya virus (CHIKV) and Zika virus (ZIKV) have recently emerged as global infections with consequential disability adjusted life years (DALYs) and economic burden. This study aimed to explore the spatiotemporal heterogeneity in the occurrence of CHIKV and ZIKV outbreaks throughout Barranquilla, Colombia during 2014 and 2016 and explored the potential for clustering. Incidence data were fitted using multiple Bayesian Poisson models based on a suite of explanatory variables as potential risk factors and multiple options for random effects. A best fit model was used to analyse the case incidence risk for both epidemics to identify any risk factors during their epidemics. Neighbourhoods in the northern region of Barranquilla were hotspots for the outbreaks of both CHIKV and ZIKV. Additional hotspots occurred in the south-western and central regions of the CHIKV and ZIKV outbreaks, respectively. Multivariate conditional autoregressive models strongly identified higher socioeconomic strata (SES) and residing in detached houses as risk factors for ZIKV case incidences. These novel findings challenge the belief that these infections are driven by social vulnerability and merits further study both in Barranquilla and throughout the tropical and subtropical regions of the world.

Chikungunya virus (CHIKV) and Zika virus (ZIKV) have recently emerged as global infections with consequential disability adjusted life years (DALYs) and economic burden. This study aimed to explore the spatiotemporal heterogeneity in the occurrence of CHIKV and ZIKV outbreaks throughout Barranquilla, Colombia during 2014 and 2016 and explored the potential for clustering. Incidence data were fitted using multiple Bayesian Poisson models based on a suite of explanatory variables as potential risk factors and multiple options for random effects. A best fit model was used to analyse the case incidence risk for both epidemics to identify any risk factors during their epidemics. Neighbourhoods in the northern region of Barranquilla were hotspots for the outbreaks of both CHIKV and ZIKV. Additional hotspots occurred in the south-western and central regions of the CHIKV and ZIKV outbreaks, respectively. Multivariate conditional autoregressive models strongly identified higher socioeconomic strata (SES) and residing in detached houses as risk factors for ZIKV case incidences. These novel findings challenge the belief that these infections are driven by social vulnerability and merits further study both in Barranquilla and throughout the tropical and subtropical regions of the world.

The aim of this research work was to provide model for predicting stock volatility in Nigeria Stock market. To achieve this, monthly data for Nigerian stock exchange, Exchange rate, Share index and inflation rate was collected for a period of January 1990 to December 2016.The descriptive statistics revealed these variables to exhibit volatility as a characteristics of financial time –varying series. DCC Model was fitted, were the coefficients for all the parameters and that of the correlation-Targeting (rho_21) are both negative and positive and tend very close to 1 and -1, indicating that high persistence in the conditional variances. The Model DCC, satisfied the properties of a good model of conditional mean and variance of the confidential Interval (C.I) of 1 and -1, that is, the conditional variances are finites and their series are strictly stationary. This therefore implies that the Nigerian Stock Exchange, Exchange rate, share index and Inflation rate will experience a non-steady shock in the Stock market. However Each of these variables have different length of recovery (volatility half- life) ranging from 1.5month, 6.5months, 6months to 2,4months for stock exchange, exchange rate, share index and inflation rate respectively. By implication, the volatility of these variables had a long memory, persistence and mean-reverting.

One of the most important component of a Geographic Information Retrieval (GIR) is the geoparser, which performs toponym recognition, disambiguation, and geographic coordinate resolution from unstructured text domain. However, news articles which report several events across many place references mentioned in the document is not yet adequately modeled by regular geoparser types where the scope of resolution is either on toponym-level or document-level. The capacity to detect multiple events, geolocate its true locations and coordinates along with their numerical arguments are still missing from modern geoparsers, much less in Indonesian news corpora domain. We propose a novel type event geoparser which integrates an ACE-based event extraction model and provides precise event-level scope resolution. The geoparser casts the geotagging and event extraction as sequence labeling and uses Conditional Random Field with keywords feature obtained using Aggregated Topic Model as a semantic exploration from large corpus, which eventually increases the generalizability of the model. The geoparser also use Smallest Administrative Level feature along with Spatial Minimality-derived algorithm to improve the identification of Pseudo-location entities, resulting 19.4% increase for weighted F1 score. As a side effect of event extraction, the geoparser also extracts various numerical arguments and able to generate thematic choropleth map from a single news story.

When extract building from high resolution remote sensing image with meter/sub-meter accuracy, the shade of trees and interference of roads are the main factors of reducing the extraction accuracy. Proposed a Bayesian Convolutional Neural Networks(BCNET) model base on standard fully convolutional networks(FCN) to solve these problems. First take building with no shade or artificial removal of shade as Sample-A, woodland as Sample-B, road as Sample-C. Set up 3 sample libraries. Learn these sample libraries respectively, get their own set of feature vector; Mixture Gauss model these feature vector set, evaluate the conditional probability density function of mixture of noise object and roofs; Improve the standard FCN from the 2 aspect:(1) Introduce atrous convolution. (2) Take conditional probability density function as the activation function of the last convolution. Carry out experiment using unmanned aerial vehicle(UVA) image, the results show that BCNET model can effectively eliminate the influence of trees and roads, the building extraction accuracy can reach 97%.

One important motivation for the implementation of the Water Framework Directive is the creation of non-market environmental benefits such as improved ecological quality, or greater opportunities for open-access river recreation via microbial pollution remediation. Pollution sources impacting on ecological or recreational water quality can be uncorrelated but non-market benefits arising from riverine improvements are typically conflated within benefit valuation studies. Using stated preference choice experiments, we seek to disaggregate these sources of value for different river users, thereby allowing decision makers to understand the consequences of adopting alternative investment strategies. Our results suggest anglers derive greater value from improvements to the ecological quality of river water, in contrast to swimmers and rowers for whom greater value is gained from improvements to recreational quality. We also find three distinct groups of respondents: a majority preferring ecological over recreational improvements, a substantial minority holding opposing preference orderings and a small proportion expressing relatively low values for either form of river quality enhancement. As such, this research demonstrates that the non-market benefits which may accrue from different types of water quality improvements are nuanced in terms of their potential beneficiaries and, by inference, their overall value and policy implications.

Research for a theory of quantum gravity has recently led to the use of presheaf topos. Quantum uncertainty is linked to the truth values of intuitionistic logic. This paper proposes transposing this model into a classic probability context, that of conditional mathematical expectations. A simulation of Brownian motion is offered for illustrative purposes.