A new generation of nano-technologies is expanding solid propulsion capabilities and increasing their relevance for versatile and manoeuvrable micro-satellites with safe high-performance propulsion. We propose the innovative concept, connected with application of new synergistic effect of the energetic materials performance enhancement and reaction zones programming for the next generation small satellite multimode solid propulsion system. The main idea of suggested concept is manipulating by the self-organized wave patterns excitation phenomenon, by the properties of the energetic materials reaction zones and by localization of the energy release areas. This synergistic effect can be provided through application of the functionalized carbon-based nanostructured metamaterials as a nano-additives along with simultaneous manipulating by their properties through the electrostatic field. Mentioned effect will be controlled through predictive programming both by the spatial structure and physics-chemical properties of the functionalized carbon-based nano-additives and through the electromagnetic control of the self-organized wave pattern excitation and micro- and nano- scale oscillatory networks in the energetic material reaction zones. Suggested new concept makes it possible to increase the energetic material regression rate and increase the thrust of the solid propulsion system with minimal additional energy consumption.

This paper presents an analysis of precipitation extremes over the East African region. The study employs six extreme precipitation indices defined by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI) to evaluate possible climate change. Observed datasets and CMIP6 simulations and projections are employed to assess the changes during the two main rainfall seasons of March to May (MAM) and October to December (OND). The study evaluated the capability of CMIP6 simulations in reproducing the observed extreme events during the period 1995 – 2014. Our results show that the multi-model ensemble (herein referred to as MME) of CMIP6 models can depict the observed spatial distribution of precipitation extremes for both seasons, albeit with some noticeable exceptions in some indices. Overall, MME's assessment yields considerable confidence in CMIP6 to be employed for the projection of extreme events over the study area. Analysis of extreme estimations shows an increase (decrease) in CDD (CWD) during 2081 – 2100 relative to the baseline period in both seasons. Moreover, SDII, R95p, R20mm, and PRCPTOT demonstrate significant OND estimates compared to the MAM season. The spatial variation for extreme incidences shows likely intensification over Uganda and most parts of Kenya, while reduction is observed over the Tanzania region. The increase in projected extremes during two main rainfall seasons poses a significant threat to the sustainability of societal infrastructure and ecosystem wellbeing. The results from these analyses present an opportunity to understand the emergence of extreme events and the capability of model outputs from CMIP6 in estimating the projected changes. More studies are encouraged to examine the underlying physical features modulating the occurrence of extremes incidences projected for relevant policies.

We investigate the impact of air quality and weather on the equity returns of the Shenzhen Exchange. To capture the air quality and weather effects, we use dummy variables created by employing a moving average and moving standard deviation. The important results are as follows. First, in the whole sample period (2005–2019), we find that high air pollution and extremely high temperature have significant and negative influence on the equity returns. In the sub-period I (2005–2012), the 11-day model and 31-day model show that high air pollution have significant and negative impacts on the Shenzhen stock returns. Second, the results of the quantile regression show that high air pollution have significant and negative effects during bullish market phase, and extremely high temperature have significant and negative effects during bearish market phase. This implies that the air quality and weather effects are asymmetric. Third, the weather effect of the abnormal temperature on the stock returns is greater in severe bearish market. Whereas the effect of the air pollution on the stock returns is greater in the bullish market. Fourth, the least squares method underestimates the air quality and weather effects compared to the quantile regression method, suggesting that the quantile regression method is more suitable in analyzing these effects in a very volatile emerging market such as the Shenzhen stock market.

On review of neuroscience literature extreme capsule considered as a whiter matter tract. Nevertheless it is not clear that extreme capsule itself is a association fiber pathway or is o bottleneck for passing other association fiber. By a systematic search with investigating anatomical position, dissection, connectivity and cognitive role of extreme capsule it can be argued that extreme capsule probably is a bottleneck for passing uncinated fasciculus (UF) and inferior fronto – occipital fasciculus(IFOF), And its different role of language processing is duo to different tract that passing it.

We investigate the impact of air quality and weather on the stock market returns of the Shenzhen Exchange. To capture the air quality and weather effects, we apply dummy variables generated by applying a moving average and moving standard deviation. Our study provides several interesting results. First, in the whole sample period (2005–2019), we find that high air pollution and extremely high temperature have significant and negative effects on the Shenzhen stock returns. In the sub-period I (2005–2012), the 11-day model and 31-day model show that high air pollution have significant and negative effects on the Shenzhen stock returns. Second, the results of the quantile regression show that high air pollution have significant and negative effects during bullish market phase, and extremely high temperature have significant and negative effects during bearish market phase. This implies that the air quality and weather effects are asymmetric. Third, the more the Shenzhen stock returns drop, the greater the effect of the abnormal temperature is. Whereas, the more the Shenzhen stock returns increase, the greater the effect of the abnormal air quality is. Fourth, the least squares method underestimates the air quality and weather effects compared to the quantile regression method, suggesting that the quantile regression method is more suitable in analysing these effects in a very volatile emerging market such as the Shenzhen stock market.

Landslides impact on human activities and socio-economic development especially in mountainous areas. This study focuses on the comparison of the prediction capability of advanced machine learning techniques for rainfall-induced shallow landslide susceptibility of Deokjeokri catchment and Karisanri catchment in South Korea. The influencing factors for landslides i.e. topographic, hydrologic, soil, forest, and geologic factors are prepared from various sources based on availability and a multicollinearity test is also performed to select relevant causative factors. The landslide inventory maps of both catchments are obtained from historical information, aerial photographs and performing field survey. In this study, Deokjeokri catchment is considered as a training area and Karisanri catchment as a testing area. The landslide inventories content 748 landslide points in training and 219 points in testing areas. Three landslide susceptibility maps using machine learning models i.e. Random Forest (RF), Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) and Deep Neural Network (DNN) are prepared and compared. The outcomes of the analyses are validated using the landslide inventory data. A receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC) method is used to verify the results of the models. The results of this study show that the training accuracy of RF is 0.757 and the testing accuracy is 0.74. Similarly, training accuracy of XGBoost is 0.756 and testing accuracy is 0.703. The prediction of DNN revealed acceptable agreement between susceptibility map and the existing landslides with training and testing accuracy of 0.855 and 0.802, respectively. The results showed that, the DNN model achieved lower prediction error and higher accuracy results than other models for shallow landslide modeling in the study area

Exome sequencing has been commonly used in rare diseases by selecting multiplex families or singletons with an extreme phenotype (EP) to search for rare variants in coding regions. The EP strategy covers both extreme ends of a disease spectrum and it has been also used to investigate the contribution of rare variants to heritability in complex clinical traits. We have conducted a systematic review to find evidence supporting the use of EP strategies to search for rare variants in genetic studies of complex diseases, to highlight the contribution of rare variation to the genetic structure of multiallelic conditions. After performing the quality assessment of the retrieved records, we selected 19 genetic studies considering EP to demonstrate genetic association. All the studies successfully identified several rare variants, de novo mutations and many novel candidate genes were also identified by selecting an EP. There is enough evidence to support that the EP approach in patients with an early onset of the disease can contribute to the identification of rare variants in candidate genes or pathways involved in complex diseases. EP patients may contribute to a better understanding of the underlying genetic architecture of common heterogeneous disorders such as tinnitus or age-related hearing loss.

Many estuarine ecosystems and the fish communities that inhabit them have undergone substantial changes in the past several decades, largely due to multiple interacting stressors that are often of anthropogenic origin. Few are more impactful than droughts, which are predicted to increase in both frequency and severity with climate change. In this study, we examined over five decades of fish monitoring data from the San Francisco Estuary, California, U.S.A, to evaluate the resistance and resilience of fish communities to disturbance from prolonged drought events. High resistance was defined by the lack of decline in species occurrence from a wet to a subsequent drought period, while high resilience was defined by the increase in species occurrence from a drought to a subsequent wet period. We found some unifying themes connecting the multiple drought events over the fifty-year period. Pelagic fishes consistently declined during droughts (low resistance), but exhibit a considerable amount of resiliency and often rebound in the subsequent wet years. However, full recovery does not occur in all wet years following droughts, leading to permanently lower baseline numbers for some pelagic fishes over time. In contrast, littoral fishes seem to be more resistant to drought and may even increase in occurrence during dry years. Based on the consistent detrimental effects of drought on pelagic fishes within the San Francisco Estuary and the inability of these fish populations to recover in some years, we conclude that freshwater flow remains a crucial but not sufficient management tool for the conservation of estuarine biodiversity.

We performed a global analysis with data from 149 countries to test whether temperature can explain the spatial variability of the spread rate and mortality of COVID-19 at the global scale. We performed partial correlation analysis and linear mixed effect modelling to evaluate the association of the spread rate and motility of COVID-19 with maximum, minimum, average temperatures and temperature extreme (difference between maximum and minimum temperature) and other environmental and socioeconomic parameters. After controlling the effect of the duration after the first positive case, partial correlation analysis revealed that temperature was not related with the spatial variability of the spread rate of COVID-19. Mortality was negatively related with temperature in the countries with high-income economies. In contrast, temperature extreme was significantly and positively correlated with mortality in the low-and middle-income countries. Taking the country heterogeneity into account, mixed effect modelling revealed that inclusion of temperature as a fixed effect in the model significantly improved model skill predicting mortality in the low-and middle-income countries. Our analysis suggest that warm climate may reduce the mortality rate in high-income economies but in low and middle-income countries temperature extreme may increase the mortality risk.

Abstract: The main contribution of this paper is to introduce a new iterative training algorithm for restricted Boltzmann machines. The proposed learning path is inspired from online sequential extreme learning machine one of extreme learning machine variants which deals with time accumulated sequences of data with fixed or varied sizes. Recursive least squares rules are integrated for weights adaptation to avoid learning rate tuning and local minimum issues. The proposed approach is compared to one of the well known training algorithms for Boltzmann machines named “contrastive divergence”, in term of time, accuracy and algorithmic complexity under the same conditions. Results strongly encourage the new given rules during data reconstruction.

This work can be considered as a first step of designing a future competitive data-driven approach for remaining useful life prediction of aircraft engines. The proposed approach is an ensemble of serially connected extreme learning machines. The results of prediction of the first networks are scaled and fed to the next networks as an additive features to the original inputs. This feature mapping allows increasing the correlation of training inputs with their targets by holding new prior knowledge about the probable behavior of the target function. The proposed approach is evaluated under remaining useful estimation using a set of “time-varying” data retrieved from the public dataset C-MAPSS (Commercial Modular Aero Propulsion System Simulation) provided by NASA. The prediction performances are compared to basic extreme learning machine and proved the effectiveness of the proposed methodology.

Objectives: COVID-19, a respiratory disease caused by SARS-COV2 and transmitted from person-to-person through viral droplets remains a global pandemic. There is a need to understand the transmission modes, populations at risk, and how to mitigate the spread and case fatality in the United States (US) and globally. The current study aimed to assess the global COVID-19 transmission and case fatality, examine similar parameters by countries and determine evidence-based practice in extreme epidemiology response in epidemic curve flattening and case fatality reduction. Methods: A cross-sectional ecologic design was used to assess the preexisting data on confirmed COVID-19 cases and mortality in March 2020 from the CDC, WHO, Worldodomter, and STATISTA. A rapid assessment between March 23^rd and 31^st, 2020, was utilized for the extreme epidemiology response. The case fatality, termed fatality proportion, was examined using mortality in relation to confirmed cases involving the world, United States of America (USA), United Kingdom (UK), Italy, France, Spain, China, Germany, India and South Korea. Results: The COVID-19 is a global pandemic, with the US as the epicenter for transmission, representing 20.9% of all confirmed cases worldwide, while Italy is the epicenter for case fatality, 30.6% of mortality as at 03/31/ 2020. The fatality proportion (FP) in Italy was 11.4%, Spain (8.8%), France (6.8%) and UK (6.4%). Despite the increased number of confirmed cases, the lowest FP was observed in Germany (0.96%) and South Korea (1.66%). There is increasing linear tends in transmission in the US, R²=0.97 as well as positive daily percentage change, ranging from 1.27% to 20.5%. Conclusions: The USA remains the epicenter for COVID-19 transmission, while Italy is the epicenter for case fatality. The observed relatively low case fatality in Germany and South Korea is due to an “extreme epidemiology” response through the application of Wuhan, China’s early data on COVID-19 transmission control measures and optimized patient care. These data are suggestive of relaxing the clinical guidelines in the United States in COVID-19 testing, application of contact tracing and testing, case isolation and most importantly enhancing resources for case management and social and physical distancing globally, hence epidemic curve flattening and case fatality reduction.

Mammography is often used as the most common laboratory method for the detection of breast cancer, yet associated with the high cost and many side effects. Machine learning prediction as an alternative method has shown promising results. This paper presents a method based on a multilayer fuzzy expert system for the detection of breast cancer using an extreme learning machine (ELM) classification model integrated with radial basis function (RBF) kernel called ELM-RBF, considering the Wisconsin dataset. The performance of the proposed model is further compared with a linear-SVM model. The proposed model outperforms the linear-SVM model with RMSE, R², MAPE equal to 0.1719, 0.9374 and 0.0539, respectively. Furthermore, both models are studied in terms of criteria of accuracy, precision, sensitivity, specificity, validation, true positive rate (TPR), and false-negative rate (FNR). The ELM-RBF model for these criteria presents better performance compared to the SVM model.

Earthquake is among the most devastating natural disasters causing severe economic, environmental, and social destruction. Earthquake safety assessment and building hazard monitoring can highly contribute to urban sustainable development through identification and insight into optimum materials and structures. While the vulnerability of structures mainly depends on the structural resistance, the safety assessment of buildings can be highly challenging. In this paper, we consider Rapid Visual Screening (RVS) method which is a qualitative procedure for estimating structural scores for buildings suitable for medium- to high-seismic cases. This paper presents an overview of the common RVS methods, i.e., FEMA P-154, IITK-GGSDMA, and EMPI. To examine the accuracy and validation, a practical comparison is performed between their assessment and observed damage of reinforced concrete buildings from a street survey in the Bingöl region, Turkey, after the 11 May 2003 earthquake. The results demonstrate that the application of RVS methods for preliminary damage estimation is a vital tool. Furthermore, the comparative analysis showed that FEMA P-154 creates an assessment that overestimates damage states and is not economically viable while EMPI and IITK-GGSDMA provide for more accurate and practical estimation, respectively.

Pressure fluctuations beneath hydraulic jumps downstream of Ogee spillways potentially damage stilling basin beds. This paper deals with the extreme pressures underneath free hydraulic jumps along a smooth stilling basin. The experiments were conducted in a laboratory flume. From the probability distribution of measured instantaneous pressures, the pressures with different non-exceedance probabilities (P*a%) could be determined. It was verified that the maximum pressure fluctuations, as well as the negative pressures, are located at the positions closest to the spillway toe. The minimum pressure fluctuations are located at the downstream of hydraulic jumps. It was possible to assess the cumulative curves of P*a% related to the characteristic points along the basin, and different Froude numbers. To benchmark, the results, the dimensionless forms of mean pressures, standard deviations, and pressures with different non-exceedance probabilities were assessed. It was found that an existing methodology can be used to interpret the present data, and pressure distribution in similar conditions, by using a new third-order polynomial relationship for the standard deviation (σ*X) with the determination coefficient (R2) equal to 0.717. It was verified that the new optimized adjustment gives more accurate results for the estimation of the maximum extreme pressures than the minimum extreme pressures.

Different cohort studies documented a lower glomerular filtration rate (GFR) in former extremely low birth weight (ELBW, <1000 g) neonates throughout childhood when compared to term controls. The current aim is to pool these studies to describe the GFR pattern over the pediatric age range. To do so, we conducted a systematic review on studies reporting on GFR measurements in former ELBW cases while GFR data of healthy age-matched controls included in these studies were co-collected. Based on 248 hits, 6 case-control and 3 cohort studies were identified, with 444 GFR measurements in 380 former ELBW cases (median age 5.3-20.7 years). The majority were small (17-78 cases) single center studies, with heterogeneity in GFR measurement (inulin, Cystatin C or creatinine estimated GFR formulae) tools. Despite this, the median GFR (ml/kg/1.73m²) within case-control studies was consistently lower (-13, range -8 to -25%) in cases, so that a relevant minority (15-30%) has a eGFR<90 mgl/kg/1.73m²). Consequently, this pooled analysis describes a consistent pattern of reduced eGFR in former ELBW cases throughout childhood. Research should focus on perinatal risk factors for impaired GFR and long-term outcome, but is hampered by single center cohorts, study size, and heterogeneity of GFR assessment tools.

Calculating hydrocarbon components solubility of natural gases is known as one of the important issues for operational works in petroleum and chemical engineering. In this work, a novel solubility estimation tool has been proposed for hydrocarbon gases including methane, ethane, propane and butane in aqueous electrolyte solutions based on extreme learning machine (ELM) algorithm. Comparing the ELM outputs with a comprehensive real databank which has 1175 solubility points concluded to R-squared values of 0.985 and 0.987 for training and testing phases respectively. Furthermore, the visual comparison of estimated and actual hydrocarbon solubility leaded to confirm the ability of proposed solubility model. Additionally, sensitivity analysis has been employed on the input variables of model to identify their impacts on hydrocarbon solubility. Such a comprehensive and reliable study can help engineers and scientists to successfully determine the important thermodynamic properties which are key factors in optimizing and designing different industrial units such as refineries and petrochemical plants.

In Taiwan, colorectal cancer is ranked second and third in terms of mortality and cancer incidence, respectively. In addition, medical expenditures related to colorectal cancer are considered to be the third highest. While advances in treatment strategies have provided cancer patients with longer survival, potentially harmful second primary cancers can occur. Therefore, second primary colorectal cancer analysis is an important issue with regard to clinical management. In this study, a novel predictive scheme was developed for predicting the risk factors associated with second colorectal cancer in patients with colorectal cancer by integrating five data mining classification techniques, including support vector machine, random forest, multivariate adaptive regression splines, extreme learning machine, and extreme gradient boosting. In total, 4,287 patients in the datasets provided by three hospital tumor registries were used. Our empirical results revealed that this proposed predictive scheme provided promising classification results and the identification of important risk factors for predicting second colorectal cancer based on accuracy, sensitivity, specificity, and area under the curve metrics. Collectively, our clinical findings suggested that the most important risk factors were the combined stage, age at diagnosis, BMI, surgical margins of the primary site, tumor size, sex, regional lymph nodes positive, grade/differentiation, primary site, and drinking behavior. Accordingly, these risk factors should be monitored for the early detection of second primary tumors in order to improve treatment and intervention strategies.

Alzheimer's is a disease for which there is no cure. Diagnosing Alzheimer's Disease (AD) early facilitates family planning and cost control. The purpose of this study is to predict the presence of AD using socio-demographic, clinical, and Magnetic Resonance Imaging (MRI) data. Early detection of AD enables family planning and may reduce costs by delaying long-term care. Accurate, non-imagery methods also reduce patient costs. The Open Access Series of Imaging Studies (OASIS-1) cross-sectional MRI data were analyzed. A gradient boosted machine (GBM) predicted the presence of AD as a function of gender, age, education, socioeconomic status (SES), and Mini-Mental State Exam (MMSE). A Residual Network with 50 layers (ResNet-50) predicted CDR presence and severity from MRI's (multi-class classification). The GBM achieved a mean 91.3% prediction accuracy (10-fold stratified cross validation) for dichotomous CDR using socio-demographic and MMSE variables. MMSE was the most important feature. ResNet-50 using image generation techniques based on an 80% training set resulted in 98.99% three class prediction accuracy on 4,139 images (20% validation set) at Epoch 133 and nearly perfect multi-class predication accuracy on the training set (99.34%). Machine Learning methods classify AD with high accuracy. GBM models may help provide initial detection based on non-imagery analysis, while ResNet-50 network models might help identify AD patients automatically prior to provider review.

The first detection of gypsum (CaSO4.2H2O) by the Mars Science Laboratory (MSL) rover Curiosity in the Gale Crater, Mars created a profound impact on planetary science and exploration. The unique capability of plasma spectroscopy involving in situ elemental analysis in extraterrestrial environments, suggesting the presence of water in the red planet based on phase characterization and providing a clue to Martian paleoclimate. The key to gypsum as an ideal paleoclimate proxy lies in its textural variants, and in this study terrestrial gypsum samples from varied locations and textural types have been analyzed by Laser Induced Breakdown Spectroscopy (LIBS) technique. Petrographic, sub-microscopic and powder X-ray diffraction characterizations confirm the presence of gypsum (hydrated calcium sulphate; CaSO4.2H2O), bassanite (semi-hydrated calcium sulphate; CaSO4.1/2H2O) and anhydrite (anhydrous calcium sulphate; CaSO4) along with accessory phases (quartz and jarosite). The principal component analysis of LIBS spectra from texturally varied gypsums can be differentiated from one another because of the chemical variability in their elemental concentrations. The concentration of gypsum is determined from the partial least-square regressions model. Rapid characterization of gypsum samples with LIBS is expected to work well in extraterrestrial environments.

The purpose of this study was to assess if self-regulation of intensity based on rating of perceived exertion (RPE) is a reliable method to control the intensity of metabolic conditioning of functional-fitness session. In addition, the relationship between RPE and changes in heart rate and lactate responses was also analyzed. Eight male participants (age 28.1 ± 5.4 years; body mass 77.2 ± 4.4kg; VO₂max: 52.6 ± 4.6 mL·(kg·min)⁻¹) completed three randomly sessions (5 to 7 days apart) under different conditions: (1) all-out (ALL); (2) self-regulation of intensity based on a RPE of 6 (hard) on the Borg CR-10 scale (RPE6); and (3) a control session. Rate of perceived exertion, LAC and HR response were measured pre, during and immediately after the sessions. The RPE and LAC during the ALL-OUT sessions were higher (p ≤ 0.05) than the RPE6 and control sessions for all the analyzed time points during the sessions. Regarding HR, the 22 min area under the curve of HR during ALL-OUT and RPE6 sessions were significantly higher (p ≤ 0.05) than the control session. The average number of repetitions was lower (p ≤ 0.05) for the RPE6 session (190.5 ± 12.5 repetitions) when compared to the ALL session (214.4 ± 18.6 repetitions). There was a significant correlation between RPE and LAC (p = 0.001; r = 0.76; very large) and number of repetitions during the session (p = 0.026; r = 0.55; large). No correlation was observed between RPE and HR (p = 0.147; r = 0.380). These results indicate that self-regulation of intensity of effort based on RPE may be a useful tool to control exercise intensity during a metabolic conditioning session of functional-fitness.

Portugal Mainland has hundreds of thousands of people living in the Atlantic coastal zone, with numerous high economic value activities and a high number of infrastructures that must be protected from natural coastal hazard, namely extreme storms and sea level rise (SLR). In the context of climate change adaptation strategies, a reliable and accurate assessment of the physical vulnerability to SLR is crucial. This study is a contribution to the implementation of flooding standards imposed by the European Directive 2007/60/EC, which requires each member state to assess the risk associated to SLR and floods caused by extreme events. Therefore, coastal hazard in the Continental Atlantic coast of Portugal Mainland was evaluated for 2025, 2050 and 2100 in the whole coastal extension with different sea level scenarios for different extreme event return periods and due to SLR. A coastal flooding probabilistic map was produced based on the developed methodology using Geographic Information Systems (GIS) technology. The Extreme Flood Hazard Index (EFHI) was determined on flood probabilistic bases through five probability intervals of 20% of amplitude. For a given SLR scenario, the EFHI is expressed, on the probabilistic flooding maps for an extreme tidal maximum level, by five hazard classes ranging from 1 (Very Low) to 5 (Extreme).

In the past two decades the world experienced an exceptional number of unprecedented extreme weather events, some causing major human suffering and economic damage, such as the March 2012 heat event, which was called “Meteorological March Madness.” From the beginning of space era a correlation of solar flares with pressure changes in atmosphere within 2–3 days or even less was reported. In this study we wanted to test the possible relation of highly warm weather events in North-East America with Solar Energetic Particle (SEP) events. For this reason we compared ground temperatures T_M in Madison, Wisconsin, with energetic particle fluxes P measured by the EPAM instrument onboard the ACE spacecraft. In particular, we elaborated case events and the results of a statistical study of the SEP events related with the largest (Dst ≤ −150nT) Coronal Mass Ejection (CME)-induced geomagnetic storms, between with the years 1997–2015. The most striking result of our statistical analysis is a very significant positive correlation between the highest temperature increase_. ΔT_M and the time duration of the temperature increase ΔT_M (r = 0.8, p <0.001) at “winter times” ( r = 0.5, p , 0.01 for the whole sample of 26 SEP examined events). The time response of T_M to P was found to be in general short (a few days), but in the case of March 2015, during a gradual P8 increase, a cross-correlation test indicated highest c.c. within 1 day (p < 0.05). The March 2012 “meteorological anomaly” was elaborated in the case of South-East Europe, where, beside a period of strong winds and rainfall (6-13.3.2012), intense precipitation in North-East Greece (Alexandroupoli) were found to be correlated with distinct high energy flux enhancements. A rough theoretical interpretation is discussed for the space—atmospheric extreme weather relationship we found. However, much work should be done to achieve early warning of space weather dependent extreme meteorological events. Such future advances in understanding the relationships between space weather and extreme atmospheric events would improve atmospheric models and help people’s safety, health and life.

Anthropogenic activities have increased the amount of urban wastewater discharged into natural aquatic reservoirs confining in them a high amount of nutrients and organics contaminants. Several studies have reported that an alternative to reduce those contaminants is using consortiums of microalgae and endogenous bacteria. In this research, a genome-scale biochemical reaction network is reconstructed for the co-culture between the microalga Chlorella vulgaris and the bacterium Pesudomonas aeruginosa. Metabolic Pathway Analysis (MPA), is applied to understand the metabolic capabilities of the co-culture and to elucidate the best conditions in removing nutrients such as Phosphorus (inorganic phosphorous and phosphate) and Nitrogen (nitrates and ammonia). Theoretical yields for Phosphorus removal under photoheterotrophic conditions are calculated, determining their values as 0.042 mmol of PO₄/ g DW of C. vulgaris, 19.53 mmol of inorganic Phosphorus /g DW of C. vulgaris and 4.90 mmol of inorganic Phosphorus/ g DW of P. aeruginosa. Similarly, according to the genome-scale biochemical reaction network the theoretical yields for Nitrogen removal are 10.3 mmol of NH₃/g DW of P. aeruginosa and 7.19 mmol of NO₃ /g DW of C. vulgaris. Thus, this research proves the metabolic capacity of these microorganisms in removing nutrients and their theoretical yields are calculated.

It is difficult to capture the real-time online measurement data for biochemical oxygen demand (BOD) in wastewater treatment processes. An optimized extreme learning machine (ELM) based on an improved cuckoo search algorithm (ICS) is proposed in this paper for the design of soft BOD measurement model. In ICS-ELM, the input weights matrices of the extreme learning machine (ELM) and the threshold of the hidden layer are encoded as the cuckoo's nest locations. The best input weights matrices and threshold are obtained by using the strong global search ability of improved cuckoo search (ICS) algorithm. The optimal results can be used to improve the precision of forecasting based on less number of neurons of the hidden layer in ELM. Simulation results show that the soft sensor model has good real-time performance, high prediction accuracy and stronger generalization performance for BOD measurement of the effluent quality compared to other modeling methods such as back propagation (BP) network in most cases.

In this work, a tailored extreme learning machine (ELM) algorithm to enhance the overall robustness of gas analyzer based on the tunable diode laser absorption spectroscopy (TDLAS) method is presented. The ELM model is tailored through activation function selection, input weight and bias searching, and cross validation method to address the analyzer robustness issues for industrial process analysis field application. The two particular issues are the inaccurate gas concentration measurement caused by the process gas background components variation, and the inaccurate spectra shift calculation caused by spectral interference. By using our algorithm, the concentration error is reduced by one order of magnitude over a much larger stream pressure and component range compared with that obtained by classical least square (CLS) fitting methods based on reference curves. Additionally, it is shown that with our algorithm, the wavelength shift accuracy is improved to less than 1 count over 1000 counts spectra length. In order to test the viability of our algorithm, a trace ethylene (C₂H₄) TDLAS analyzer with coexisting methane was implemented, and its experimental measurements support analyzing robustness enhancement effect.

Understanding the distribution in drought and floods plays an important role in disaster risk management. The present study aims to explore the trends in the standardized precipitation index and extreme precipitation days in China, as well as to estimate the economic losses they cause. We found that in the Northeast China, northern of North China and northeast of Northwest China were severely affected by drought disasters (average damaged areas were 6.44 million hectares) and the most severe drought trend was located in West China. However, in the north of East China and Central China, the northeastern of the Southwest China was severely affected by flood disasters (average damaged areas were 3.97 million hectares) and the extreme precipitation trend is increasing in the northeastern of the Southwest China. In the Yangtze River basin, there were increasing trends in terms of drought and extreme precipitation, especially in the northeastern of the Southwest China, where accompanied by severe disaster losses. By combining the trends in drought and extreme precipitation days with the distribution of damaged areas, we found that the increasing trend in droughts shifted gradually from north to south, especially in the Southwest China, and the increasing trend in extreme precipitation gradually shifted from south to north.

The finding of important explanatory variables for the location parameter and the scale parameter of the generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution, when the latter is used for the modelling of annual streamflow maxima, is known to have reduced the uncertainties in inferences, as estimated through regional flood frequency analysis frameworks. However, important explanatory variables have not been found for the GEV shape parameter, despite its critical significance, which stems from the fact that it determines the behaviour of the upper tail of the distribution. Here we examine the nature of the shape parameter by revealing its relationships with basin attributes. We use a dataset that comprises information about daily streamflow and forcing, climatic indices, topographic, land cover, soil and geological characteristics of 591 basins with minimal human influence in the contiguous United States. We propose a framework that uses random forests and linear models to find (a) important predictor variables of the shape parameter and (b) an interpretable model with high predictive performance. The process of study comprises of assessing the predictive performance of the models, selecting a parsimonious predicting model and interpreting the results in an ad-hoc manner. The findings suggest that the shape parameter mostly depends on climatic indices, while the selected prediction model results in more than 20% higher accuracy in terms of RMSE compared to a naïve approach. The implications are important, since incorporating the regression model into regional flood frequency analysis frameworks can considerably reduce the predictive uncertainties.

Observed ENSO statistics exhibits a non-gaussian behavior, which is indicative of the presence of nonlinear processes. In this paper we use the Recharge Oscillator model (ROM), a largely used Low-Order Model (LOM) of ENSO, as well as methodologies borrowed from the field of statistical mechanics to identify which aspects of the system may give rise to nonlinearities that are consistent with the observed ENSO statistics. In particular, we are interested in understanding whether the nonlinearities reside in the system dynamics or in the fast atmospheric forcing. Our results indicate that one important dynamical nonlinearity often introduced in the ROM cannot justify a non-gaussian system behavior, while the nonlinearity in the atmospheric forcing can instead produce a statistics similar to the observed. The implications of the non-Gaussian character of ENSO statistics for the frequency of extreme El Nino events is then examined.

Power disaggregation aims at determining the appliance-by-appliance electricity consumption leveraging upon a single meter only, which measures the entire power demand. Data-driven procedures based on Factorial Hidden Markov Models have been proven remarkable results on energy disaggregation. Nevertheless, those procedures have various weaknesses: there is a scalability problem as the number of devices to observe raises and the algorithmic complexity of the inference step is severe. DNN architectures, such as Convolutional Neural Networks, have demonstrated to be a viable solution to deal with FHMMs shortcomings. Nonetheless, there are two significant limitations: a complicated and time-consuming training system based on back-propagation has to be employed to estimates the neural architecture parameters, and large amounts of training data covering as many operation conditions as possible need to be collected to attain top performances. In this work, we aim to overcome those limitations by leveraging upon the unique and useful characteristics of the extreme learning machine technique, which is based on a collection of randomly chosen hidden units and analytically defined output weights. Experiment evaluation has been conducted using the UK-DALE corpus. We find that the suggested approach achieves similar performances to recently proposed ANN-based methods and outperforms FHMMs. Besides, our solution generalises well to unseen houses.

Reconstruction of fine-scale information from sparse data is often needed in practical fluid dynamics where the sensors are typically sparse and yet, one may need to learn the underlying flow structures or inform predictions through assimilation into data-driven models. Given that sparse reconstruction is inherently an ill-posed problem, the most successful approaches encode the physics into an underlying sparse basis space that spans the manifold to generate well-posedness. To achieve this, one commonly uses generic orthogonal Fourier basis or data specific proper orthogonal decomposition (POD) basis to reconstruct from sparse sensor information at chosen locations. Such a reconstruction problem is well-posed as long as the sensor locations are incoherent and can sample the key physical mechanisms. The resulting inverse problem is easily solved using $l_2$ minimization or if necessary, sparsity promoting $l_1$ minimization. Given the proliferation of machine learning and the need for robust reconstruction frameworks in the face of dynamically evolving flows, we explore in this study the suitability of non-orthogonal basis obtained from Extreme Learning Machine (ELM) auto-encoders for sparse reconstruction. In particular, we assess the interplay between sensor quantity and sensor placement for a given system dimension for accurate reconstruction of canonical fluid flows in comparison to POD-based reconstruction.

Texas ranks first in number of natural hazard fatalities in the United States (U.S.). Based on data culled from the National Climatic Data Center databases from 1959 to 2016, the number of hydrometeorological fatalities in Texas have increased over the 58-year study period, but the per capita fatalities have significantly decreased. Spatial review found that flooding is the predominant hydrometeorological disaster in a majority of the Texas counties located in “Flash Flood Alley” and accounts for 43% of all hydrometeorological fatalities in the state. Flooding fatalities are highest on “Transportation Routes” followed by heat fatalities in “Permanent Residences”. Seasonal and monthly stratification identifies Spring and Summer as the deadliest seasons, with the month of May registering the highest number of total fatalities dominated by flooding and tornado fatalities. Demographic trends of hydrometeorological disaster fatalities indicated that approximately twice as many male fatalities occurred during the study period than female fatalities, but with decreasing gender disparity over time. Adults are the highest fatality risk group overall, children most at risk to die in flooding, and the elderly at greatest risk of heat-related death.

Estimates of extreme water level return periods in river systems are crucial for hydraulic engineering design and planning. Recorded historical water level data of Taiwan’s rivers are not long enough for traditional frequency analyses when predicting extreme water levels for different return periods. In this study, the integration of a one-dimensional flash flood routing hydrodynamic model with the Monte Carlo simulation was developed to predict extreme water levels in the Danshuei River system of northern Taiwan. The numerical model was calibrated and verified with observed water levels using four typhoon events. The results indicated a reasonable agreement between the model simulation and observation data. Seven parameters, including the astronomical tide and surge height at the mouth of the Danshuei River and the river discharge at five gauge stations, were adopted to calculate the joint probability and generate stochastic scenarios via the Monte Carlo simulation. The validated hydrodynamic model driven by the stochastic scenarios was then used to simulate extreme water levels for further frequency analysis. The design water level was estimated using different probability distributions in the frequency analysis at five stations. The design high-water levels for a 200-year return period at Guandu Bridge, Taipei Bridge, Hsin-Hai Bridge, Da-Zhi Bridge, and Chung-Cheng Bridge were 2.90 m, 5.13 m, 6.38 m, 6.05 m, and 9.94 m, respectively. The estimated design water levels plus the freeboard are proposed and recommended for further engineering design and planning.

In this paper, we present the design of a wearable photoplethysmography (PPG) system, R-band for acquiring the PPG signals. PPG signals are influenced by the respiration or breathing process and hence can be used for estimation of respiration rate. R-Band detects the PPG signal that is routed to a Bluetooth low energy device such as a nearbyplaced smartphone via microprocessor. Further, we developed an algorithm based on Extreme Learning Machine (ELM) regression for the estimation of respiration rate. We proposed spectral kurtosis features that are fused with the state-ofthe-art respiratory-induced amplitude, intensity and frequency variations-based features for the estimation of respiration rate (in units of breaths per minute). In contrast to the neural network (NN), ELM does not require tuning of hidden layer parameter and thus drastically reduces the computational cost as compared to NN trained by the standard backpropagation algorithm. We evaluated the proposed algorithm on Capnobase data available in the public domain.

UAV photogrammetry development during the last decade has allowed to catch information at a very high spatial and temporal resolution from terrains with very difficult or impossible human access. This paper deals with the application of these techniques to study and produce information of very extreme topography which is useful to plan works on this terrain or monitoring it over the time to study its evolution. The methodology stars with the execution of UAV flights on the cut slope studied, one with the cam vertically oriented and other at 45º respect that orientation. Ground control points (GCPs) and check points (CPs) were measured for georeference and accuracy measurement purposes. Orthophoto was obtained projecting on a fitted plane to a studied surface. Moreover, since a digital surface model (DSM) is not able to represent faithfully that extreme morphology, information to project works or monitoring it has been derived from the point cloud generated during the photogrammetric process. An informatics program was developed to generate contour lines and cross sections derived from the point cloud, which was able to represent all terrain geometric characteristics, like several Z coordinates for a given planimetric (X, Y) point. Results yield a root mean square error (RMSE) in X, Y and Z directions of 0.053 m, 0.070 m and 0.061 m respectively. Furthermore, comparison between contour lines and cross sections generated from point cloud with the developed program on one hand and those generated from DSM on other hand, shown that the former are capable of representing terrain geometric characteristics that the latter cannot. The methodology proposed in this work has been shown as an adequate alternative to generate manageable information, as orthophoto, contour lines and cross sections, useful for the elaboration, for example, of projects for repairing or maintenance works of cut slopes with extreme topography.

Water pollution associated with flooding is one of the major problems in cities in the global South. However, studies of water quality dynamics during flood events are not often reported in literature, probably due to difficult conditions for sampling during flood events. Water quality parameters in open water (canals, rivers, and lakes), floodwater on roads and water in sewers have been monitored during the extreme fluvial flood event on 7 October 2013 in Can Tho city, Vietnam. This is the pioneering study of urban flood water pollution in real time in Vietnam. The results showed that water quality is very dynamic during flooding, especially at the beginning of the event. In addition, it was observed that the pathogen and contaminant levels in the floodwater are almost as high as in sewers. The findings show that population exposed to flood water runs a health risk that is nearly equal to that of being in contact with sewer water. Therefore the people of Can Tho not only face physical risk due to flooding, but also exposed to health risk.

Assessment of extreme events and climate change on reservoir inflow is important for water and power stressed countries. Projected climate is subject to uncertainties related to climate change scenarios and Global Circulation Models (GCMs’). Extreme climatic events will increase with the rise in temperature as mentioned in the AR5 of the IPCC. This paper discusses the consequences of climate change that include extreme events on discharge. Historical climatic and gauging data were collected from different stations within a watershed. The observed flow data was used for calibration and validation of SWAT model. Downscaling was performed on future GCMs’ temperature and precipitation data, and plausible extreme events were generated. Corrected climatic data was applied to project the influence of climate change. Results showed a large uncertainty in discharge using different GCMs’ and different emissions scenarios. The annual tendency of the GCMs’ is bi-vocal: six GCMs’ projected a rise in annual flow, while one GCM projected a decrease in flow. The change in average seasonal flow is more as compared to annual variations. Changes in winter and spring discharge are mostly positive, even with the decrease in precipitation. The changes in flows are generally negative for summer and autumn due to early snowmelt from an increase in temperature. The change in average seasonal flows under RCPs’ 4.5 and 8.5 are projected to vary from -29.1 to 130.7% and -49.4 to 171%, respectively. In the medium range (RCP 4.5) impact scenario, the uncertainty range of average runoff is relatively low. While in the high range (RCP 8.5) impact scenario, this range is significantly larger. RCP 8.5 covered a wide range of uncertainties, while RCP 4.5 covered a short range of possibilities. These outcomes suggest that it is important to consider the influence of climate change on water resources to frame appropriate guidelines for planning and management.