Preprint Article Version 1 Preserved in Portico This version is not peer-reviewed

Temperature Extreme May Exaggerate the Mortality Risk of COVID-19 in the Low- and Middle-income Countries: A Global Analysis

Version 1 : Received: 29 June 2020 / Approved: 30 June 2020 / Online: 30 June 2020 (11:38:15 CEST)

How to cite: Rahman, M.; Islam, M.; Shimanto, M.H.; Ferdous, J.; Rahman, A.A.S.; Sagor, P.S.; Chowdhury, T. Temperature Extreme May Exaggerate the Mortality Risk of COVID-19 in the Low- and Middle-income Countries: A Global Analysis. Preprints 2020, 2020060369 (doi: 10.20944/preprints202006.0369.v1). Rahman, M.; Islam, M.; Shimanto, M.H.; Ferdous, J.; Rahman, A.A.S.; Sagor, P.S.; Chowdhury, T. Temperature Extreme May Exaggerate the Mortality Risk of COVID-19 in the Low- and Middle-income Countries: A Global Analysis. Preprints 2020, 2020060369 (doi: 10.20944/preprints202006.0369.v1).

Abstract

We performed a global analysis with data from 149 countries to test whether temperature can explain the spatial variability of the spread rate and mortality of COVID-19 at the global scale. We performed partial correlation analysis and linear mixed effect modelling to evaluate the association of the spread rate and motility of COVID-19 with maximum, minimum, average temperatures and temperature extreme (difference between maximum and minimum temperature) and other environmental and socioeconomic parameters. After controlling the effect of the duration after the first positive case, partial correlation analysis revealed that temperature was not related with the spatial variability of the spread rate of COVID-19. Mortality was negatively related with temperature in the countries with high-income economies. In contrast, temperature extreme was significantly and positively correlated with mortality in the low-and middle-income countries. Taking the country heterogeneity into account, mixed effect modelling revealed that inclusion of temperature as a fixed effect in the model significantly improved model skill predicting mortality in the low-and middle-income countries. Our analysis suggest that warm climate may reduce the mortality rate in high-income economies but in low and middle-income countries temperature extreme may increase the mortality risk.

Subject Areas

temperature extreme; warm climate; low-and middle-income economies; COVID-19; mortality; mixed effect modelling

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