Background: Since 2000, vaccine coverage in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) has surpassed multiple milestones. Its contribution to global health, especially in low-middle-income countries is one of the achievements in global governance of modern medicine, averting 2-3 million child deaths every year. However, in Nigeria, vaccine-preventable-diseases still account for one in eight child deaths before their fifth-year birthday and remains one of the ten countries where 4.3 million children under five are without complete immunization. The reasons for declining childhood vaccine demand are unclear. Therefore, the goal of this contribution is to shed light on the reasons to set a foundation for future interventions. Methods: Four focus group discussions were conducted. The primary targets were mothers of children 0 – 12 months old in Nigeria. A simplified quota sampling approach was used to select mothers in four geographical clusters of Nigeria’s Federal Capital Territory. At least six mothers from each cluster were randomly included, giving a total of 24 participants. An interview guide developed from the 5C psychological antecedence model was used (assessing confidence, complacency, calculation, constraints, collective responsibility); two additional variables were included that had proved meaningful in previous work (religion and masculinity). The data were analyzed using meta-aggregation approach such as framework synthesis, which summarized data in a stepwise fashion. Results: The sample was generally relatively positive towards vaccination. Still, mothers reported low trust in vaccine safety and the healthcare system (confidence). Yet, they had great interest in seeking additional information during antenatal visits (calculation), difficulties in prioritizing vaccination over other equally competing priorities (constraints) and were aware that vaccination translates into overall community health and wellbeing (collective responsibility). They had a bias towards God as ultimate giver of good health (religion) and reported that their husbands played a dominant role in vaccination decision-making (masculinity). Mothers perceived their children vulnerable to disease outbreaks, which motivated them to get them vaccinated (complacency). Conclusion: The 5C model and the added determinants provided a useful qualitative tool for understanding mothers’ vaccination decision-making in low resources settings.

The purpose of the study is to analyze the trade performance of Bangladesh during the COVID-19 pandemic. The study identifies the effects of private consumption demand shock and trade disruptions due to higher trade costs caused by the pandemic on the export and import of Bangladesh in different sectors and compares the analysis results with actual data. Based on the previous literature, this study assumes the shocks in different levels such as low, medium, and high level and identifies their effects on the trade in Bangladesh. The study applies the CGE model using GTAP to measure the effects of the shocks on trade and output and compares the actual trade with the CGE simulated results. The results of the study suggest that both demand shock and trade disruptions substantially affect the export, import, and domestic output of Bangladesh during the Covid-19 pandemic. It is also evident that the higher the level of shock, the higher the impact on trade and output. The actual export and import data cross-validate the CGE analysis results and provide mixed findings on the trade performance of various sectors of Bangladesh during the pandemic.

Smart, reliable, and connected multi-modal mobility has been a long-standing goal of transit services. This paper focuses on the smart, seamless, and multi-modal mobility service in the context of “Mobility as a Service” (MaaS). Intelligent mobility is the smarter, greener, and more efficient movement of passengers around the world. Increasingly, mobility is approached as a service. This study first conducts an extensive literature review on mobility behavior and demand pattern of MaaS end-users. It then extends the mechanism of supply chain, MaaS, synergy (i.e., vertical cooperation synergy, horizontal competition synergy), and coopetition to develop the multi-tier closed-loop intelligent mobility service supply chain network. This paper explains the intelligent mobility service supply chain network from following perspectives: (i) mobility service taxonomy of MaaS; (ii) aims of intelligent mobility service supply chain network; (iii) urban rail transit (URT)-centered alternatives for integrated multimodal journey planning, i.e. access + URT + egress, and both access and egress can be served by Mobility-On-Demand (MOD) transport; (iv) node member imperatives. From a synthesis of insights from the ‘during’ journey, this study puts forward the synergetic design of intelligent mobility service supply chain network, including: (i) multi-tier closed-loop structure; (ii) key nodes identification for the physical multimodal transport network in the supply chain; (iii) hybrid synergy mechanisms among the partners, i.e., synergy principle, temporal splitting approach for coopetition synergy; (iv) index systems and evaluation methods for synergy measurement. This study also contributes to the integrated multimodal journey planning. In concluding, the paper highlights the important implications of the proposed intelligent mobility service supply chain network for MaaS bundle design and adverse effects reduction, resulting from 1 + 1 > 2 synergy effects.

When following a prescribed route, we need to decide at each intersection which way to proceed. The present work addressed several factors that might influence the difficulty of this decision making process. Participants repeatedly followed a route through a virtual maze with twelve or eighteen intersections, and with two or three choices per intersection. One group performed task S, which promoted decision making by the serial order strategy since all intersections looked alike. Another group performed task SA, which allowed the use of the serial order and the associative cue strategy since unique visual cues were presented at each intersection. We found that in both tasks, participants were more accurate in making decisions on routes with twelve rather than eighteen intersections, and more accurate by a similar amount on routes with two rather than three choices. Reaction time in task SA was reciprocal to accuracy; reaction time in task S was generally lower and route-independent. Accuracy in task SA was similar for participants who experienced smooth transport across intersections and those who experienced abrupt transport, while accuracy in task S was lower for participants who experienced smooth rather than abrupt transport across intersections. We conclude that the number of intersections and the number of choices were equivalent determinants of route following difficulty. We further conclude that optic flow during turns at intersections interfered with anticipatory decision making in task S; hence natural (smooth) transport across intersections did not enhance route following performance.

Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) is a technique developed to measure possible environmental impacts during the manufacture and use of a given product or service. Additive Manufacturing (AM) has proven to be suitable in several industries, especially wire and arc additive manufacturing (WAAM), offering many advantages such as delivery time and reduction in terms of material waste, energy consumption and equivalent CO₂ emissions (CO₂e). This study aimed to develop a methodology to evaluate environmental indicators during the life cycle assessment, from gate-to-gate, in the production of two low-alloy carbon steel metal parts (flanges) using ER-90 wire and allowed identifying the main stages that most influence environmental indicators. The total energy consumption in the production of flanges 1 and 2 were, respectively, 10,239.0 MJ, 12,754.0 MJ and the total carbon footprint, respectively, 714.1 kgCO₂e kg^-1 and 749.3 kgCO₂e kg^-1.

In this paper, particular attention is paid to an advanced variant of the plug-in hybrid engine, known as PHEV, which combines two functionalities: the vehicle's internal combustion engine (ICEV) and the electric engine (BEV). The paper also presents the assumptions of the DEVS model, which allows for the estimation of vehicle’s energy consumption. The study described herein also presents the influence of factors such as ambient temperature and constant speed on the PHEV’s energy consumption. It has been shown that the vehicle’s range estimated based on its electronic control module (ECU) is about 20% shorter per annum on average for its year-round operation in every-day driving conditions. When analyzing the energy consumption based on the vehicle’s unit energy consumption model, attention was paid to values that are strongly correlated with the traffic volume and weather conditions affecting the moving vehicle. In addition, the authors emphasized that the estimated total energy consumption of an electric (BEV) or hybrid (PHEV) vehicle, relative to the normative values arising from the type approval test cycle, deviate from the actual values arising from real driving conditions and often vary substantially. In extreme cases, the actual range of a hybrid vehicle is 75% shorter.

The mathematical modelling of reverse logistics inventory systems ignores that returned items may arrive out of sequence, i.e. with different number of remanufacturing times. Moreover, such modelling assumes that the retuned items may retain the same quality upon recovery regardless of how many times they have been previously remanufactured. This paper develops a new mathematical expression of the percentage of retuned items that can be remanufactured a finite number of times. The proposed expression is modelled as a function of the expected number of times an item can be remanufactured on its life cycle and the number of times an item can be technologically (or optimally) remanufactured based on its quality upon recovery. The model developed in this paper considers joint production and remanufacturing options. The return rate is a varying demand dependent rate, which is a decision variable with demand, product deterioration, manufacturing and remanufacturing rates being arbitrary functions of time. The model considers the initial inventory of returned items in the mathematical formulation, which enables decision makers to adjust all functions and input parameters for subsequent cycles. Illustrative examples indicate that dependent purchasing price of recovery items and the incorporation of remanufacturing investment cost significantly impact on the optimal remanufacturing policy.

This paper focuses on designing and assessing Pumped Hydroelectric Energy Storage Systems (PHES), connected to the grid and PV system for self-consumption structured at Mutah university in an area of high solar potential. In focusing on PHES and PV literature was made to have data on the field, based on the grid code needed in Jordan. Next, a prospection to find the proper location for the installation was done. Afterward, a load profile was inserted to know the energy demand of the university. Then The productivity of the solar power plant of Mutah University was included. Finally, MATLAB software was used to realize the amount of energy to be stored, this data was used to implement the system which was chosen and sized. PHES layout was created to find the most accurate values for parameters to optimize the system performance, and to investigate the loss analysis. The system attains 9230.89 MWh/year. An annual load yields 4430 MWh/year, which covers the Mutah university demand with an estimated saving of 2039773 JD.

Integrating photovoltaic (PV) systems plays a pivotal role in the global shift toward renewable energy, offering significant environmental benefits. In many instances, utility companies pay for both energy and peak demand. PV systems can effectively reduce energy consumption during their operational periods, while, their contribution during peak hours, particularly in the early morning and late evening, is often limited. To address this issue, battery storage systems are utilized for storing energy during off-peak hours and releasing it during peak times. However, finding the optimal size of PV-battery systems remains a challenge. This study proposes a novel statistical model to optimize PV-battery system sizing for enhanced peak demand reduction. The model aims to flatten 95% of peak demand days up to a certain demand threshold, ensuring consistent energy supply and financial benefit for utility companies. A straightforward and effective search methodology is employed to determine the optimal system sizes. Additionally, the model effectiveness is rigorously tested through a modified Monte Carlo simulation coupled with time series clustering to generate various scenarios to assess performance under different conditions. The results indicate that the optimal PV-battery system successfully flattens 95% of daily peak demand up to 2000 kW, yielding a financial benefit of $812,648 over 20 years.

Gait variability (GV) is a crucial measure of inconsistency of muscular activities or body seg-mental movements during repeated tasks. Hence, GV might serve as a relevant and sensitive measure to quantify adjustments of walking control. However, has not been clarified whether GV is associated with walking speed to exploit effective better coordination level. Fourteen male stu-dents (age 22.4 ± 2.7 years, body mass 74.9 ± 6.8 kg, body height 1.78 ± 0.05 m) took part in this study. After three days of walking 1 km each day at a self-selected speed (SS) on asphalt with Apple Watch S. 7 (AppleTM), the participants were randomly evaluated on a treadmill at three different walking speed intensities for 10 minutes each one, at SS-20% / SS+20% of SS, with 5 minutes of passive recovery in-between. Heart rate (HR) was monitored beat-to beat and nor-malized as HR%MAX, while the rate of perceived exertion (RPE) (CR-10) was asked after each trial. Kinematic analysis was performed assessing the Contact Time (CT), Swing Time (ST), Stride Length (SL), Stride Cycle (SC) and Gait Variability as Phase Coordination Index (PCI). RPE and HR increased with higher walking speed (P = 0.005 and P = 0.035, respectively). CT and SC decreased as the speed increased (P = 0.0001 and P = 0.013, respectively), while ST remained un-changed (P = 0.277). SL increased with higher walking speed (P = 0.0001). Conversely, PCI was 3.81 ± 0.88 % (high variability) at 3.96 ± 0.47 km·h-1, 2.64 ± 0.75 % (low variability) at SS (4.94 ± 0.58 km·h-1), 3.36 ± 1.09 % (high variability) at 5.94 ± 0.70 km·h-1 (P = 0.001). These results indi-cate that while the metabolic demand and kinematics variables changing linearly with increasing speed, the most effective GV was observed at SS. Therefore, SS could be a new methodological approach to choose the individual walking speed, normalize the speed intensity, and avoid a gait pattern alteration.

Building electric energy is characterized by a significant increase of its uses (e.g. vehicle charging), a rapidly declining cost of all related data collection and a proliferation of smart grid concepts, including diverse and flexible electricity pricing schemes. Not surprisingly, an increased number of approaches have been proposed for its modeling and forecasting. In this work, we place our emphasis on three forecasting related issues. First, on the forecasting explainability, i.e. the ability to understand and explain to the user what shapes the forecast. To this extent we rely on concepts and approaches that are inherently explainable, such as the evolutionary approach of genetic programming (GP) and its associated symbolic expressions, as well as the so-called SHAP (SHapley Additive eXplanations) values, which is a well established model agnostic approach for explainability, especially in terms of feature importance. Second, we investigate the impact of the training timeframe on the forecasting accuracy; this is driven by the realization that a fast training would allow for faster deployment of forecasting in real life solutions. And third, we explore the concept of counterfactual analysis on actionable features, i.e. features that the user can really act upon and which therefore present an inherent advantage when it comes to decision support. We have found that SHAP values can provide important insights into the model explainability. As for GP models, we have found comparable and in some cases superior accuracy when compared to its neural-network and time-series counterparts but a rather questionable potential to produce crisp and insightful symbolic expressions, allowing a better insight into the model performance. We have also found, and report here on an important potential especially for practical, decision support, solutions of counterfactuals built on actionable features and short training timeframes.

Modelling and presenting mathematical relationships for human behaviour is one of the most complex issues that researchers have always dealt with. In this article, a bottom-up framework for calculating agricultural needs is presented using the socioeconomic characteristics of farmers (such as education level, age, and dependence on income on agriculture) and how their lands are located concerning each other (interactions between neighbours). The objective function of this framework is to maximize the profit of individual farmers based on the amount of water received. Two scenarios, ABM1 (not considering neighbourhood effects) and ABM2 (all cases of farmers' placement and feeling neighbourhood effects), were investigated. In the first scenario (ABM1), there was a noteworthy reduction in water deficit volumes by approximately 35%, accompanied by a 20% increment in farmers' profits. Interestingly, higher risk-taking tendencies correlated with reduced profit margins. The second scenario (ABM2) underscored the significant role of neighborhood dynamics in cultivating diverse behavioral patterns among farmers, subsequently affecting their profitability. A granular examination revealed that farmers with a higher propensity for risk-taking generally accrued lower profits. Additionally, the study facilitated the calculation of total annual profits and average water consumption for each farmer, offering valuable insights for optimizing water resource management and allocation strategies. These findings are instrumental for planners and water resource managers aiming to promote sustainable agricultural practices and efficient water use.

The study investigated the changes that occurred in the Mexican power sector pre-, during, and post-COVID-19 pandemic and its repercussions on energy sustainability goals. The study is based on the variability of the installed capacity, consumption, generation, and demand of the National Electric System (SEN), covering the period from 2017 to 2021. The data were collected from the Development of the National Electric System (PRODESEN), the Ministry of Energy, the National Energy Balance, and the government's official website. The results indicated that in-stalled capacity and generation increased by 22.83% and 27.86%, respectively, despite the pan-demic. This growth was attributed to clean energy, mainly photovoltaic solar and wind sources. Another finding is that the gross domestic product (GDP), consumption, and demand were seri-ously affected by COVID-19. They had a fall of 8.2%, 2.2%, and 4.4%, respectively, which trans-lates into a significant economic lag and a slowdown in energy self-sufficiency and the Mexican Energy Transition (TEM). Moreover, the objective of generating 35% and 40% of electrical ener-gy through clean energy will be achieved by 2031 and 2035, instead of 2021 and 2035, respec-tively.

Agricultural productivity is expected to decrease under changing climate conditions that correspond to the stability of West African food systems. Although numerous studies evaluated food production gaps or impacts of climate variability on crop yields, many uncertainties are associated with climate extremes, but also rapid population growth and the corresponding dietary lifestyle determine farming activities. Here, we present a food supply and demand analysis based on the relationship between climate change, crop production, as well as population growth in three experimental sites from southwestern Burkina Faso to southwestern Ghana. The method consists of a tiered approach that encompassed a statistical analysis of historical climate as well as agricultural time series using boxplots and a trend test by Mann-Kendall. Food balance sheets were calculated by estimating the demand using a population growth model linked to food supply with local consumption patterns. Results of the boxplot analysis revealed for the majority of climate time series light to strong right-skewed distributions with either a few heavy rainfall or hot temperature events. We found almost insignificant rainfall and temperature trends for both sites in the Sudano-Guinean savannah. The rainfall regime of southwestern Ghana indicated an insignificant upward or downward trend while the temperature significantly increased over time. Crop yield boxplots demonstrated mainly right-skewed distributions for cereals, legumes and tubers as well as cash crops such as cotton. Backed by the Mann-Kendall test, maize and sorghum significantly enhanced in both study areas of the Sudano-Guinean savannah. Southwestern Ghana depicted a different crop pattern where cassava and plantain showed a strong upward trend at a confidence level of 1%. The grouped food balances sheets across the regions illustrated a surplus for the Sudano-Guinean savannah ranging from 221.2 megatons (Mt) to 4,846.77 Mt while southwestern Ghana exhibited a deficit between -193.33 Mt and -16,188.82 Mt. Despite a growing yield of various crops, food demand outpaces the regional production. Hence, it is recommended to focus on a larger array of commodities, imports and marketing of farm products.

The impact of climate change on water resources is a global issue with significant regional implications. The Ghba subbasin has experienced a higher socioeconomic change. In this paper, we assess the potential impact of climate change and human activity on water supply and demand in the Ghba subbasin of Ethiopia. We then evaluate the effectiveness of regional adaptation strategies for water supply management under these conditions. To do this, we use the statistical downscaling model (SDSM) and the water assessment and planning tool (WEAP) to simulate and analyse future water conditions. After running the model through a calibration and validation process, minimum (Tmin) and maximum (Tmax) temperatures, water demand and unmet water demand were projected for 2100 horizon, using different climate change scenarios. The results showed that the model's performance, calibration, and validation were all satisfactory. The analysis showed that, under A2 and B2 emission scenarios of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the mean precipitation will increase by 31% and 26%, respectively. The projected mean Tmax and Tmin will be warmer than the baseline period, with Tmax increasing by 1.5°C (A2) and 1.3°C (B2), and Tmin by 1.7°C (A2) and 1.5°C (B2) by 2100. The results also illustrate that in all scenarios, water consumption would rise and that this need will not be satisfied, and the pressure on water resources will intensify, resulting in a water shortage. The findings show that future water demand under the influence of climate change is projected to exceed 210 million cubic meters (MCM) by 2100. The findings show that while the evaluations of the recommended adaption techniques are effective, they are not enough to guarantee the Ghba subbasin's water sustainability.

India, the world’s most populous country, is the world's third-largest emitter of greenhouse gases (GHGs). Despite employing several energy sources, it still relies heavily on coal, its primary energy source. Given India’s swiftly rising energy demand, this challenges meeting emission reduction targets. India has significantly increased investments in renewables like solar and hydrogen in recent years. While commendable, these initiatives alone cannot meet the country's expanding energy demands. In the short term, India must rely on both domestic and imported fossil fuels, with natural gas being the most environmentally friendly option. In this context, this paper attempts to forecast energy consumption, natural gas production, and consumption in India till 2050 using both univariate and multivariate forecasting methods. For multivariate forecasting, we have assumed two alternative possibilities for GDP growth: the business-as-usual and the high-growth scenarios. Each of our forecasts indicates a notable shortfall in the projected production of natural gas compared to the expected demand, implying our results are robust. Our model predicts that nearly 30-50 percent of India’s natural gas consumption will be met by imports, mainly in the form of LNG. Based on these findings, this paper recommends that Indian government policies emphasize increasing domestic natural gas production, importing LNG, and expanding renewable energy resources.

Electrical energy demand increase does evolve rapidly due to several socioeconomic factors such as industrialization, population growth, urbanization and of course the evolution of modern technologies in this 4th industrial revolution era. Such rapid increase in energy demand introduces a huge challenge in power system. Such has paved way for network operators to seek for alternative energy resources other than the conventional fossil fuel system. Hence, the penetration of renewable energy into the electricity supply mix has evolved rapidly in the past three decades. However, the grid system has to be well planned ahead to accommodate such increase in energy demand in the long run. Transmission Network Expansion Planning (TNEP) is a well ordered and profitable expansion of power facilities that meets the expected electric energy demand with an allowable degree of reliability. This paper proposes a TNEP model that minimises the network reinforcements, operational costs and costs of renewable energy penetrations, while satisfying the increase in demand. The problem is formulated as a mixed integer linear programming (MILP) problem. The developed model has been tested in several IEEE test systems in multi-period scenarios. The paper also carried out a detailed derivation of the new non-negative variables in terms of the power flow magnitudes, the bus voltage phase angles and the lines’ phase angles for proper mixed integer variables’ decomposition techniques. Moreover, this paper tends to provide additional recommendation in terms of which particular year (within 20 years of planning period) can the network operators install new line(s), new corridor(s) and/or additional generation capacity to the respective existing power networks. Such is achieved by running incremental periods simulations from base year through the planning horizon. The results show the efficacy of the developed model in solving the TNEP problem with a reduced and acceptable computation time even for large power grid system.

Hybrid forecasting methods have emerged as a solution surpassing the limitations of both statistical and deep learning approaches. While the first emphasize the significance of variables, they often produce worse forecasting results when compared to newer techniques. In contrast, deep learning models remain enigmatic "black boxes" in terms of interpretability, although achieving better results in forecasting. This article introduces the Comprehensive Cross-Correlation and Lagged Linear Regression Deep Learning (CCLR-DL) framework, designed to harness the best of both approaches, enhancing forecasting accuracy while retaining model interpretability through a feature selection process. CCLR-DL blens cross-correlation analysis, lagged multiple linear regression and granger's causality procedures with deep learning architectures based on LSTM. In a practical demonstration, CCLR-DL was applied to a real database of clinical visits associated to diagnoses in Catalonia, Spain (tracking a population of 6.3 million patients during 10 years). Predicting visits enables the healthcare managers to be ready for future demand shifts. Results demonstrate a consistent and substantial improvement over standalone statistical and deep learning methods when predicting healthcare demand. This hybrid approach not only showcases its efficacy but also offers a promising solution to the challenge of balancing predictive accuracy with model explicability. In this context, this work aims to design and validate a method for feature selection and forecasting of multivariate high dimensional time series datasets not only to improve prediction accuracy but also to model transparency by identifying a subset of variables that improve predictions and G-cause the target variable.

This paper provides a new multi-function Blockchain Technology-enabled Pharmaceutical Supply Chain (BT-enabled PSC) mathematical cost model, including PSC costs, BT costs, and uncertain demand fluctuations. The purpose of this study is to find the most appropriate algorithm(s) with minimum prediction errors to predict the costs of the BT-enabled PSC model. This paper also aims to determine the importance and cost of each component of the multi-function model. To reach these goals, we combined four Supervised Learning algorithms (KNN, DT, SVM, and NB) with two Evolutionary Computation algorithms (HS and PSO) after data generation. Each component of the multi-function model has its own importance, and we applied the Feature Weighting approach to analyse their importance. Next, four performance metrics evaluated the multi-function model, and the Total Ranking Score determined predictive algorithms with high reliability. The results indicate the HS-NB and PSO-NB algorithms perform better than the other six algorithms in predicting the costs of the multi-function model with small errors. The findings also show that the Raw Materials cost has a stronger influence on the model than the other components. This study also introduces the components of the multi-function BT-enabled PSC model.

Global models have been developed to tackle the challenge of forecasting sets of series that are related or share similarities, but not for heterogeneous datasets. Various methods of partitioning by relatedness have been introduced to enhance the similarities of the set, resulting in improved forecasting accuracy but often at the cost of a reduced sample size, which could be harmful. To shed light on how the relatedness between series impacts the effectiveness of global models in real-world demand forecasting problems we perform an extensive empirical study using the M5 competition dataset. We examined cross-learning scenarios driven by the product hierarchy commonly employed in retail planning, which allow global models to capture interdependencies across products and regions more effectively. Our findings show that global models outperform state-of-the-art local benchmarks by a considerable margin, indicating that they are not inherently more limited than local models and can handle unrelated time series data effectively. The accuracy of data partitioning approaches increases, as the size of the data pools and the models' complexity decrease. However, there is a trade-off between data availability and data relatedness. Smaller data pools lead to increased similarity among time series, making it easier to capture cross-product and cross-region dependencies, but this comes at the cost of a reduced sample, which may not be beneficial. Finally, it's worth noting that the successful implementation of global models for heterogeneous datasets can significantly impact forecasting practice.

Green-space resources, in the context of urbanisation, cannot meet the actual needs of residents well, and the study of the balance of green-space resource allocation from the relationship between supply and demand is an urgent problem to be solved. This study quantitatively evaluates the green-space supply level from four dimensions by constructing a framework for assessment in the community life circle. It also evaluates the matching of green space supply and demand, resource distribution fairness, and distribution equilibrium under group differentiation through the supply–demand coupling matrix, Gini coefficient, and the Kruskal–Wallis H non-parametric rank-sum test, respectively. This study shows that (1) a significant spatial imbalance exists in green-space resource allocation in community life circles in different dimensions. (2) The comprehensive green-space supply level in the community life circle matched the total demand of residents to a low degree. (3) There was significant inequality in green-space resource allocation within the community life circle (the Gini coefficient of each evaluation perspective was > 0.4). Based on the study results, we were able to identify community life circles with spatial mismatches, different supply and demand, and other green-space resource allocation problems, which is of great significance to urban green-space research and planning practice under the "green justice" framework.

This study investigates the relationship between housing prices and vacancy rates in Hong Kong, offering insights distinct from previous cross-sectional analyses. Addressing limitations in data availability and methodological approaches, the study examines annual data spanning multiple housing size categories to uncover nuanced dynamics in the housing market. Two major contributions emerge: firstly, the analysis reveals the price elasticity of vacancy, elucidating how housing prices respond to changes in vacancy rates over time. Secondly, by considering housing vacancy changes as outcomes of the interactions between supply and demand, the study challenges the conventional independence assumption between these variables. The results support the hypothesis that housing vacancies exert a negative impact on housing prices, holding other factors constant. These findings have significant implications for policymakers, urban planners, and real estate investors, providing valuable insights for crafting targeted interventions and informing investment decisions.

This paper aims to explore how climate change affects electricity generation (fossil-fueled power plants, hydroelectric stations, wind systems and photovoltaics) and energy demand in residential buildings in Greece for the period up to 2050. In both cases RCP scenarios results are considered in the appropriate spatial and temporal dimension. Energy supply technologies were examined through statistical regression models and/or mathematical equations correlating climatic parameters with energy productivity. With respect to energy demand, bottom-up models were developed that integrate behavioral and policy aspects. The analysis showed that climate change is expected to mainly affect electricity generation from hydro and thermal power plants, while the impacts on solar and wind energy are significantly lower. The range of impacts on hydro potential and electricity generation depends on the geographical location of the power plants and shows significant uncertainty due to the corresponding uncertainty in climate models estimates regarding precipitation and runoff changes while showing significant geographical variations. With respect to energy demand, climate change is expected to affect energy consumption, but the expected range of effects depends on both the implementation and the characteristics (deep vs. shallow renovation) of measures for upgrading the thermal performance of the building stock and the intensity of climate change.

The present state of the natural environment is significantly influenced by the construction sector. Due to the large amounts of consumed natural resources and materials as well as the high volume of emitted pollutants, the building industry is considered to have a key influence in achieving a global sustainable development. A considerable part of the ecological impact of the built environment is influenced by the energy consumed for creating appropriate indoor conditions as well as by the greenhouse gases that are emitted during the operation stage of a building’s life cycle. Therefore, the energy performances of existing buildings must be significantly improved in the near future. This paper analyzes the influence of the thermal insulation thickness of walls on the linear thermal transmittances and the heating demand of an existing building. The resulted values show that while increasing the insulation of the walls leads to a serious heat demand reduction, a deep renovation of the building cannot be achieved solely by using this solution.

This study examines the DCMA concerning the future risk of the water security status. We considered three risk factors: population growth, economic growth, and natural water supply demand differences. In the risk analysis part, we consulted with experts from several sectors including academia, Non-Governmental Organization (NGOs), and industry, to predict that the probability of future water stresses in high, medium, and low scenarios are 0.73, 0.24, and 0.03, respectively. In the decision analysis part, we adopted two Multiple Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) approaches that include Multiple Attribute Value Theory (MAVT) and Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) methods to evaluate the best alternative decision to alleviate future water stresses in the DCMA. The sensitivity analysis demonstrates the best option closely connects to the weighting scheme of the criteria considered in the framework. This study provides a valuable risk and decision analysis framework to analyze the water security status associated with the future water supply and demand gap decrease caused by three risk factors: population growth, climate change, and natural water supply.

Consumers are attracted by the increasing number of available SVOD platforms, but subscribing to all of them would be too expensive. To reduce costs, consumers could combine the use of proprietary subscriptions, non-proprietary subscriptions, and illegal streaming sites. In turn, platforms could enforce access control, a decision that could produce the desired reduction in non-proprietary subscriptions but also an undesired reduction in proprietary subscriptions. The effects of this decision and the determinants of SVOD content demand remain largely unexplored. We propose a baseline model where the SVOD content demand is driven by variety seeking, household financial situation, ethical evaluation, and social norms, as well as a change model where the subscription variation is driven by users’ trait reactance and perceived fairness of the decision. We conducted a survey on the current ways of SVOD content consumption and the responses to a hypothetical access control enforcement, with four randomized versions of the authentication mode. Results confirmed many of the proposed determinants and showed a noteworthy reduction in proprietary subscriptions due to the control enforcement but no effect due to the authentication modes. All these findings may help improve future models on SVOD content consumption and better address the difficult challenge of converting unauthorized users into authorized ones.

The selectin of a demand forecasting method is critical for companies aiming to avoid manufacturing overproduction or shortages in pursuit of sustainable development. Various qualitative and quantitative criteria with different weights must be considered during the evaluation of a forecasting method. The qualitative criteria and criteria weights are usually assessed in linguistic terms. Aggregating these various criteria and linguistic weights for evaluating and selecting demand forecasting methods in sustainable manufacturing is a major challenge. This paper proposes an extension of fuzzy Elimination and Choice Translating Reality (ELECTRE) I to resolve this problem. In the proposed method, fuzzy weighted ratings are defuzzified with the signed distance to develop a crisp ELECTRE I model. Moreover, an extension to ELECTRE I is developed by suggesting an extended modified discordance matrix and a closeness coefficient for ranking alternatives. The proposed extension can overcome the problem of information loss which can lead to incorrect ranking result when using the Hadamard product to combine concordance and modified discordance matrices. A comparison is conducted to show the advantage of the proposed extension. Finally, a numerical example is used to demonstrate the feasibility of the proposed method; furthermore, a numerical comparison is made to display the advantage of the proposed method.

The effects of wastewater step-feeding on the performance of Horizontal Subsurface Flow Constructed Wetlands (HSF CWs) are numerically investigated. The purpose is to check if this alternative feeding technique increases the ability of HSF CWs to remove pollutants. Two methodologies are used: Initially, the Tanks-In-series (TIS) methodology, based on Finite Volume Method (FVM), is analyzed by using the volumetric degradation coefficient λ. In this case the operation of CW is similar with a series of Continuous Stirred-Tank Reactors (CSTR), under steady conditions. Then, the Step-Feeding (SF) procedure is presented, when the CW is operated like a Plug Flow Reactor (PFR). The results show that the SF procedure does not improve the performance of HSF CWs on removing Biochemical Oxygen Demand (BOD), operating under Mediterranean conditions.

Abstract: With the continuous integration of various energy systems and the reform of energy trading marketization, the traditional power demand response can no longer meet the needs of multi-energy coupling. For the joint response problem of multi-energy, this paper proposes a comprehensive demand response optimization incentive model considering the user response characteristics, with the complete energy service providers and multiple users as the participants of the comprehensive demand response, to solve the response strategy for the optimal goal of all parties. The implementation architecture of integrated demand response and the electrothermal energy hub model is introduced first. Secondly, the integrated demand response collaborative optimization strategy of the integrated energy service providers and users is established, and the existence and uniqueness of the optimal solution are proved. Finally, the example analysis demonstrates that the proposed strategy can reduce the integrated energy service providers' response cost and user dissatisfaction under multiple scenarios.

This study proposes a methodology for identifying time intervals in which time-of-use (ToU) energy tariffs can be set. This is achieved by analyzing the variability in electric power demand and esti-mating the potential for demand flexibility. The proposed methodology is as follows: first, data preprocessing is performed, focusing on the organization and cleaning of individual consumption records. Subsequently, the data are processed and classified by using consumption variability analysis and clustering techniques. Then, representative clusters are selected and time intervals are analyzed to identify periods of high electric power consumption variability. This methodology was tested with real data from smart meters in the Colombian electrical system, in which time intervals with potential for settinh ToU tariffs were ultimately identified. This work promotes the implementation of demand response strategies that enhance sustainability and facilitate the transition to a more resilient energy landscape both nationally and internationally. The findings are expected to contribute to the formulation of tariff schemes that encourage con-scious changes in electric energy consumption patterns.

Space and water heating for residential and commercial buildings amount to a third of the European Union’s total final energy consumption. Approximately 75% of the primary energy is still produced by burning fossil fuels, leading to high greenhouse gas emissions in the heating sector. Therefore, policymakers increasingly strive to trigger investments in sustainable and low-emission heating systems. This study forms part of the “Roll-out of Deep Geothermal Energy in North-West-Europe”-project and aims at quantifying the spatial heat demand distribution in the Interreg North-West-Europe region. An open-source geographic information system and selected Python packages for advanced geospatial processing, analysis, and visualization are utilized to constrain the maps. These were combined, streamlined, and optimized within the open-source Python package PyHeatDemand. Based on national and regional heat demand input data, three maps are developed to better constrain heat demand at a high spatial resolution of 100*100m2 for the residential and commercial sectors, and for both together (in total). The developed methodology cannot only be applied to transnational heat demand mapping but also on various scales ranging from city district level to states and countries. In addition, the workflow is highly flexible working with raster data, vector data, and tabular data. Results reveal a total heat demand of the Interreg North-West-Europe region of about 1,700TWh. The spatial distribution of the heat demand follows specific patterns, where heat demand peaks are usually in metropolitan regions like for the city of Paris (1,400MWh/ha), the city of Brussels (1,300MWh/ha), the London metropolitan area (520 MWh/ha), and the Rhine-Ruhr region (500 MWh/ha). The developed maps are compared with two international projects, Hotmaps and Heat Roadmap Europe’s Pan European Thermal Atlas. The average total heat demand difference from values obtained in this study to Hotmaps and Heat Roadmap Europe is 24 MWh/ha and 84 MWh/ha, respectively. It is assumed that the implementation of real consumption data is an improvement in spatial predictability. The heat demand maps are therefore predestined to provide a conceptual first overview for decision-makers and market investors. The developed methods will further allow for anticipated mandatory municipal heat demand analyses.

Knowledge-intensive business services (KIBS) are professional services that create new added value by creating, accumulating, and disseminating new knowledge. When it comes to conducting business involving new technology, KIBS play the roles of innovator, user, and producer of new technology that has led to technological innovation. This study aimed to determine the role of KIBS as a tool for innovation in a country’s economic system. Specifically, the degree and role of their impact on the Korean economy were analyzed and compared for the entire KIBS sector, T-KIBS (a new technology-based professional service), P-KIBS (a traditional professional service), and every subsector. For this purpose, the demand-inducement model, supply inducement model, and interlinkage effects method were applied using the 2019 input-output table published in 2022. The analysis showed that the indirect production inducement effect of the entire KIBS industry on other industries was 0.800 KRW, the indirect added value inducement effect was 0.330 KRW, and the supply disruption effect was 1.144 KRW. For T-KIBS, the indirect production inducement effect was 0.687 KRW, the indirect added value inducement effect was 0.272 KRW, and the supply disruption effect was 0.730 KRW. For P-KIBS, the indirect production inducement effect was 1.472 KRW, the indirect added value inducement effect was 0.646 KRW, and the supply disruption effect was 2.657 KRW. Finally, regarding the economic ripple effect of the KIBS subsector, legal and management support services and advertisements corresponding to P-KIBS showed higher figures than the T-KIBS subsectors in all sectors, including production inducement, the added value inducement effect, and the supply disruption effect. These results revealed that in the South Korean economic system, KIBS contribute to production and value addition across all industrial sectors. It is apparent that the absence of supply significantly disrupts other industries. Furthermore, production inducement effects are evenly distributed among all the KIBS subsectors in the secondary and tertiary sectors, while the value-added effects have a greater impact on the tertiary sector. In terms of the supply shortage effects, the secondary sector experiences a more significant impact. This underscores the crucial role of KIBS in sustaining and enhancing overall economic activity in South Korea. This study is significant in that it not only investigated KIBS as an industry group using the advantages provided by industry linkage analysis but also examined and compared detailed subsectors, thereby elaborately evaluating the influence relationship between KIBS and other industries. Therefore, the results presented in this study are expected to be useful for fostering the KIBS industrial sector and establishing economic innovation policies using KIBS.

Amidst the recent energy crisis, the pivotal role of resource efficiency and renewable energy sources (RES) for sustainable development has become apparent. Transition to sustainability involves decentralized energy solutions empowering local communities to generate, store, and utilize their energy, diminishing reliance on centralized systems and potentially transforming them into power flexibility resources. This is particularly crucial in non-interconnected island systems that primarily rely on imported oil for electricity generation. Such reliance not only implies high production costs but also threatens energy security and adds to the environmental footprint of local economic activities. Addressing the above necessitates, amongst other elements, the adoption of advanced energy management with sophisticated forecasting and demand-side management (DSM) strategies. In response, we introduce a versatile algorithm investigating the impact of DSM at the community scale, designed to maximize the utilization of renewable energy produced from local installations. Integrated as an ancillary module in an advanced energy management platform, the algorithm undergoes testing using datasets collected from end-consumers and a small-scale RES installation on the island of Tilos, Greece. This study not only offers insights for energy stakeholders but also establishes theoretical parameters that can inform subsequent decision-making processes.

To satisfy the interests of multiple agents and those of comprehensive indicators such as peak-to-valley differences and load fluctuations occurring on the network side, this paper presents a flexible load demand-side response optimization method that considers the benefits of peak-to-valley smoothing. First, load aggregation modelling of air conditioning and electric vehicles was conducted, and the complementarity of the power consumption behaviour of different types of flexible loads was used to improve the responsiveness of the load aggregator. Second, considering demand-side responses and taking into account the interests of both supply and demand, the load fluctuation and peak-to-valley difference on the network side are reduced, and a flexible load double-layer optimization model incorporating the peak-to-valley smoothing benefit is established. Finally, the effectiveness of the proposed optimization model is verified by using the KKT condition and the big M method to evaluate this two-layer optimization problem as a single-layer optimization problem. Comparative examples demonstrate that the proposed two-layer optimization method can improve the revenue of the distribution network operators and the load aggregators by using the complementary nature of the load response characteristics of electric vehicles and air conditioners. Moreover, the proposed method can effectively reduce the load peak-to-valley difference and load fluctuation of the distribution network by introducing the peak-to-valley smoothing benefit model.

In this paper we compare the effects of forecasting demand using individual (disaggregated) components versus first aggregating the components either fully or into several clusters. Demand streams are assumed to follow autoregressive moving average (ARMA) processes. Using individual demand streams will always lead to a superior forecast compared to any aggregates, however we show that if several aggregated clusters are formed in a structured manner then these subaggregated clusters will lead to a forecast with minimal increase in mean-squared forecast error. We show this result based on theoretical MSFE obtained directly from the models generating the clusters as well as estimated MSFE obtained directly from simulated demand observations. We suggest a pivot-algorithm, that we call Pivot Clustering, to create these clusters. We also provide theoretical results to investigate sub-aggregation, including for special cases such as, aggregating MA(1) streams and ARMA streams with similar or same parameters.

To address the problems of wind abandonment in the regional integrated energy system (RIES), which occurs when cogeneration unit operates in a heat-determined electricity operation mode, and the low efficiency of the energy storage system in a low-temperature environment, we propose an optimal scheduling method for RIES based on fine energy storage and wind power dissipation. First, a fine energy storage model is established on the source side and the conditional value at risk(CvaR) theory is used to quantify the uncertainty of wind power; then a combined heat and power demand response mechanism is introduced on the load side to reduce the peak-to-valley difference between heat and power loads, and to promote the consumption of wind power. Finally, with the objective of minimizing the total cost of RIES optimal dispatch, the example is solved on the MATLAB platform. The simulation results show that compared with the traditional model, the proposed model is not only more adaptable to the low-temperature environment, but also can effectively improve the system economy and wind power consumption.

In the context of carbon neutrality and carbon peaking, in order to achieve low carbon emissions and promote the efficient utilization of wind energy, hydrogen energy as an important energy carrier is proposed to mix hydrogen and natural gas to form hydrogen enriched compressed natu-ral gas (HCNG). It is also injected into the natural gas pipeline network to realize the transmission and utilization of hydrogen energy. At the same time, the participation of demand response is considered, the load peak and trough period is adjusted, and large-scale consumption of renewa-ble energy and the reduction of carbon emissions are realized. First of all, a fine model of hydro-gen production and hydrogen use equipment is established to analyze the impact of adding hy-drogen mixing on the economy and low-carbon of the system. With green certificates and demand response, the utilization rate of hydrogen energy is improved to further explore the energy utiliza-tion rate and emission reduction capacity of the system. Secondly, on the basis of modeling, the optimal scheduling strategy is proposed with the sum of energy purchase cost, equipment opera-tion cost, carbon emission cost, wind curtailment cost and green certificate income as the lowest objective function. Considering the constraints such as hydrogen blending ratio and flexible load ratio of the pipeline network, a low-carbon economic scheduling model of hydrogen mixed natu-ral gas was established. The model was linearized and solved by using MATLAB and CPLEX solver. By comparing different scenarios, the superiority of the model and the effectiveness of the strategy are verified.

The purpose of the evaluation of the Peruvian energy generation system is to project the electricity generation and demand until the year 2050. To achieve this, three alternative scenarios have been defined and analyzed using the LEAP (Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning) software. The scenarios are as follows: the first one, Business-as-Usual scenario, based on normal trends according to historical data and referencing projections made by Peruvian state entities; the second one is focused on Energy Efficiency, the highlighted characteristic is taking into consideration the efficient conditions in transmission and distribution of electric energy; and the third one, centered on Geothermal Energy, focused on the development of this type of energy source and prioritizing it. The primary purpose of this analysis is to identity advantages and disadvantages inherent in each scenario in order to get the best of each one. In this way, the intention is to propose solutions based on Peru’s national reality or possible uses of the country’s energy potential to supply its energy demand. Currently, Peru’s energy demand relies on fossil fuels, hydraulic, and thermal energy. However, there is the possibility of transforming this system into a sustainable one, by strengthening existing and growing energy sources such as solar and wind energy, and new technologies for hydraulic and thermal energy, in addition to considering geothermal energy as the main energy source in the third scenario. The new system mentioned satisfactorily indicate that the CO2 equivalent emissions decrease significantly in the third scenario, with a 15.8% reduction compared to the first scenario and a 9.7% reduction in comparison to the second. On the other hand, the second scenario shows a 5.6% decrease in CO2 emissions compared to the first, resulting from improvements in technology and energy efficiency without requiring significant modifications or considerable investments, as in the third scenario.

Public transportation scheduling aims to optimize the allocation of transportation resources, enhance transportation efficiency, and increase passenger satisfaction, which is crucial for building a sustainable urban transportation system. As a complement to public transportation, shared bikes provide users with a solution for the last mile of travel, compensating for the lack of flexibility in public transportation and helping to improve its utilization rate. Due to the characteristics of shared bikes, such as peak usage periods in the morning and evening and significant fluctuations in demand across different areas, the optimization of shared bike dispatch can better meet user needs, thereby reducing vehicle vacancy rates and increasing operating revenue. Addressing this issue, this paper designs a comprehensive decision-making approach for spatio-temporal demand prediction and bike dispatch optimization. For demand prediction, we designed a T-GCN based bike demand prediction model. In terms of dispatch optimization, we considered factors such as dispatch capacity, distance restrictions, and dispatch costs, and designed an optimization solution based on genetic algorithms. Finally, this paper validates the approach using shared bike operating data, shows that T-GCN can effectively predict short-term demand for shared bikes. Meanwhile, the optimization model based on genetic algorithms provides a complete dispatch solution verifying the model’s effectiveness. The shared bike dispatch approach proposed in this paper, which combines demand prediction with resource scheduling. This scheme can also be extended to other transportation scheduling problems with uncertain demand, such as store replenishment delivery and intercity inventory dispatch.