Schultze, M.; Kankam, S.; Sanfo, S.; Fürst, C. Agricultural Yield Responses to Climate Variabilities in West Africa: A Food Supply and Demand Analysis. Land2024, 13, 364.
Schultze, M.; Kankam, S.; Sanfo, S.; Fürst, C. Agricultural Yield Responses to Climate Variabilities in West Africa: A Food Supply and Demand Analysis. Land 2024, 13, 364.
Schultze, M.; Kankam, S.; Sanfo, S.; Fürst, C. Agricultural Yield Responses to Climate Variabilities in West Africa: A Food Supply and Demand Analysis. Land2024, 13, 364.
Schultze, M.; Kankam, S.; Sanfo, S.; Fürst, C. Agricultural Yield Responses to Climate Variabilities in West Africa: A Food Supply and Demand Analysis. Land 2024, 13, 364.
Abstract
Agricultural productivity is expected to decrease under changing climate conditions that correspond to the stability of West African food systems. Although numerous studies evaluated food production gaps or impacts of climate variability on crop yields, many uncertainties are associated with climate extremes, but also rapid population growth and the corresponding dietary lifestyle determine farming activities. Here, we present a food supply and demand analysis based on the relationship between climate change, crop production, as well as population growth in three experimental sites from southwestern Burkina Faso to southwestern Ghana. The method consists of a tiered approach that encompassed a statistical analysis of historical climate as well as agricultural time series using boxplots and a trend test by Mann-Kendall. Food balance sheets were calculated by estimating the demand using a population growth model linked to food supply with local consumption patterns. Results of the boxplot analysis revealed for the majority of climate time series light to strong right-skewed distributions with either a few heavy rainfall or hot temperature events. We found almost insignificant rainfall and temperature trends for both sites in the Sudano-Guinean savannah. The rainfall regime of southwestern Ghana indicated an insignificant upward or downward trend while the temperature significantly increased over time. Crop yield boxplots demonstrated mainly right-skewed distributions for cereals, legumes and tubers as well as cash crops such as cotton. Backed by the Mann-Kendall test, maize and sorghum significantly enhanced in both study areas of the Sudano-Guinean savannah. Southwestern Ghana depicted a different crop pattern where cassava and plantain showed a strong upward trend at a confidence level of 1%. The grouped food balances sheets across the regions illustrated a surplus for the Sudano-Guinean savannah ranging from 221.2 megatons (Mt) to 4,846.77 Mt while southwestern Ghana exhibited a deficit between -193.33 Mt and -16,188.82 Mt. Despite a growing yield of various crops, food demand outpaces the regional production. Hence, it is recommended to focus on a larger array of commodities, imports and marketing of farm products.
Keywords
agriculture; climate variability; crop yield; food supply and demand analysis; West Africa; Ghana; Burkina Faso
Subject
Environmental and Earth Sciences, Geography
Copyright:
This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
