PreprintArticleVersion 1Preserved in Portico This version is not peer-reviewed
Assessment of Future Water Demand for Resilient Water Allocation under Socioeconomic and Climate Change Scenarios, a Case of Ghba Subbasin, Northern Ethiopia
Version 1
: Received: 17 November 2023 / Approved: 20 November 2023 / Online: 20 November 2023 (13:57:37 CET)
How to cite:
Hiben, M.G.; Awoke, A.G.; Ashenafi, A.A. Assessment of Future Water Demand for Resilient Water Allocation under Socioeconomic and Climate Change Scenarios, a Case of Ghba Subbasin, Northern Ethiopia. Preprints2023, 2023111247. https://doi.org/10.20944/preprints202311.1247.v1
Hiben, M.G.; Awoke, A.G.; Ashenafi, A.A. Assessment of Future Water Demand for Resilient Water Allocation under Socioeconomic and Climate Change Scenarios, a Case of Ghba Subbasin, Northern Ethiopia. Preprints 2023, 2023111247. https://doi.org/10.20944/preprints202311.1247.v1
Hiben, M.G.; Awoke, A.G.; Ashenafi, A.A. Assessment of Future Water Demand for Resilient Water Allocation under Socioeconomic and Climate Change Scenarios, a Case of Ghba Subbasin, Northern Ethiopia. Preprints2023, 2023111247. https://doi.org/10.20944/preprints202311.1247.v1
APA Style
Hiben, M.G., Awoke, A.G., & Ashenafi, A.A. (2023). Assessment of Future Water Demand for Resilient Water Allocation under Socioeconomic and Climate Change Scenarios, a Case of Ghba Subbasin, Northern Ethiopia. Preprints. https://doi.org/10.20944/preprints202311.1247.v1
Chicago/Turabian Style
Hiben, M.G., Admasu Gebeyehu Awoke and Abraha Adugna Ashenafi. 2023 "Assessment of Future Water Demand for Resilient Water Allocation under Socioeconomic and Climate Change Scenarios, a Case of Ghba Subbasin, Northern Ethiopia" Preprints. https://doi.org/10.20944/preprints202311.1247.v1
Abstract
The impact of climate change on water resources is a global issue with significant regional
implications. The Ghba subbasin has experienced a higher socioeconomic change. In this
paper, we assess the potential impact of climate change and human activity on water supply
and demand in the Ghba subbasin of Ethiopia. We then evaluate the effectiveness of regional
adaptation strategies for water supply management under these conditions. To do this, we use
the statistical downscaling model (SDSM) and the water assessment and planning tool (WEAP)
to simulate and analyse future water conditions. After running the model through a calibration
and validation process, minimum (Tmin) and maximum (Tmax) temperatures, water demand and
unmet water demand were projected for 2100 horizon, using different climate change
scenarios. The results showed that the model's performance, calibration, and validation were
all satisfactory. The analysis showed that, under A2 and B2 emission scenarios of the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the mean precipitation will increase by
31% and 26%, respectively. The projected mean Tmax and Tmin will be warmer than the
baseline period, with Tmax increasing by 1.5°C (A2) and 1.3°C (B2), and Tmin by 1.7°C (A2)
and 1.5°C (B2) by 2100. The results also illustrate that in all scenarios, water consumption
would rise and that this need will not be satisfied, and the pressure on water resources will
intensify, resulting in a water shortage. The findings show that future water demand under the
influence of climate change is projected to exceed 210 million cubic meters (MCM) by 2100.
The findings show that while the evaluations of the recommended adaption techniques are
effective, they are not enough to guarantee the Ghba subbasin's water sustainability.
Keywords
Climate change; SDSM; WEAP; IPCC; water demand
Subject
Engineering, Civil Engineering
Copyright:
This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
