preprints.org > business, economics and management > econometrics and statistics > doi: 10.20944/preprints202312.1231.v1

Preprint Article Version 1 Preserved in Portico This version is not peer-reviewed

Version 1 : Received: 16 December 2023 / Approved: 17 December 2023 / Online: 18 December 2023 (06:13:54 CET)

India, the world’s most populous country, is the world's third-largest emitter of greenhouse gases (GHGs). Despite employing several energy sources, it still relies heavily on coal, its primary energy source. Given India’s swiftly rising energy demand, this challenges meeting emission reduction targets. India has significantly increased investments in renewables like solar and hydrogen in recent years. While commendable, these initiatives alone cannot meet the country's expanding energy demands. In the short term, India must rely on both domestic and imported fossil fuels, with natural gas being the most environmentally friendly option. In this context, this paper attempts to forecast energy consumption, natural gas production, and consumption in India till 2050 using both univariate and multivariate forecasting methods. For multivariate forecasting, we have assumed two alternative possibilities for GDP growth: the business-as-usual and the high-growth scenarios. Each of our forecasts indicates a notable shortfall in the projected production of natural gas compared to the expected demand, implying our results are robust. Our model predicts that nearly 30-50 percent of India’s natural gas consumption will be met by imports, mainly in the form of LNG. Based on these findings, this paper recommends that Indian government policies emphasize increasing domestic natural gas production, importing LNG, and expanding renewable energy resources.

non-renewable energy sources; energy demand forecasting; natural gas consumption and production forecasting; LNG import; natural gas industry; India

Business, Economics and Management, Econometrics and Statistics

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