REVIEW | doi:10.20944/preprints202210.0022.v2
Subject: Biology And Life Sciences, Virology Keywords: monkeypox; risk; elimination; epidemiology; outbreak; prediction
Online: 14 November 2022 (09:43:24 CET)
Human monkeypox, caused by monkeypox virus, has spread unprecedentedly to more than 100 countries since May 2022. Here we summarized the epidemiology of monkeypox through a literature review and elucidated the risks and elimination strategies of this outbreak mainly based on the summarized epidemiology. We demonstrated that monkeypox virus became more contagious and less virulent in 2022, which could result from the fact that the virus entered a special transmission network favoring close contacts (i.e., sexual behaviors of men who have sex with men outside Africa) and the possibility that the virus accumulated a few adaptive mutations. We gave the reasons to investigate whether cattle, goats, sheep, and pigs are susceptible to monkeypox virus and whether infection with monkeypox virus could be latent in some primates. We listed six potential scenarios for the future of the outbreak (e.g., the outbreak could lead to endemicity outside Africa with increased transmissibility or virulence). We also listed multiple factors aiding or impeding the elimination of the outbreak. We showed that the control measures strengthened worldwide after the World Health Organization declared the outbreak a public health emergency of international concern (PHEIC) could eliminate the outbreak in 2022. We clarified eight strategies, i.e., publicity and education, case isolation, vaccine stockpiling, risk-based vaccination or ring vaccination, importation quarantine, international collaboration, and laboratory management, for the elimination of the outbreak.
REVIEW | doi:10.20944/preprints202210.0024.v1
Subject: Computer Science And Mathematics, Logic Keywords: Boolean algebras; Decidability; Model Theory; Quantifier-Elimination
Online: 4 October 2022 (12:14:58 CEST)
Abstract—In this paper, decidability of the structures of real, rational, integer and natural numbers will be studied in different languages. Decidability or undecidability of mathematical structures is one of the fundamental and sometimes very difficult problems of mathematical logic, where several examples of problems in this field are still open and unresolved even after decades. One of the goals of Mathematical Logic is the axiomatization of mathematical theoriesTarski has proved the decidability of the theory of real and complex numbers in the language of addition and multiplication, and it is proved that theories of natural, integer, and rational numbers, in the language of addition and multiplication, are undecidable (Theorems of Gödel and Robinson). We will review The following problemes: The Main Problem 1: ⟨Q; ⊑⟩ is decidable? Problem 2: an explicit axiomatization for ⟨Z; \times⟩? and we will study boolean algebras. Boolean algebras are famous mathematical structures.Tarski showed the decidability of the elementary theory of Boolean algebras.In this paper, we study the different kinds of Boolean algebras and their properties. And we present for the first-order theory of atomic Boolean algebras a quantifier elimination algorithm. The subset relation is a partial order and indeed a lattice order,And I will prove that the theory of atomic Boolean lattice orders is decidable, and furthermore admits elimination of quantifiers. So the theory of the subset relation is decidable. And we will study decidability of atomlss boolean algebra.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202310.1139.v1
Subject: Public Health And Healthcare, Health Policy And Services Keywords: Hepatitis C; Elimination; Global Burden of Disease; Mortality
Online: 18 October 2023 (17:35:15 CEST)
This study assesses the feasibility of hepatitis B and C elimination, using an analysis of trends of epidemiology data (1990-2019) from the global burden of disease. Joinpoint regression analysis was used to identify significant changing points in trends of Age-standardizes Prevalence Rate (ASPR) and Age-standardizes Mortality Rate (ASMR) and to estimate the annual percentage changes (APC) and the average annual percentage changes (AAPC) for the period. Sociodemographic Index (SDI) was used to analyze trends between countries. The total percentage change of the ASPR (2019/1990) was -31.4% and -12.8% for HBV and HCV worldwide respectively, the rate ratio (HBV/HCV) was 2.5. Mortality has decreased for HBV but not for HCV. The total percentage change for the ASMR (2019/1990) was -26.7% and 10.0%, for HBV and HCV respectively. While ASMR of HBV decreased, HCV increased during this period. The percentage change in ASMR of HBV was highest in countries with high-middle SDI and lowest in countries with high SDI. For HCV, the percentage change in ASMR was highest in countries with High SDI (increase) and only in countries with low SDI decreased. The global HBV and HCV rates have fallen with different AAPC associated with the SDI. Despite the advances, there is still a long way forward to achieve the 2030 elimination goals. An important challenge is related to finding a way to speed up the yearly rate at which the decline is happening.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202009.0716.v1
Subject: Medicine And Pharmacology, Immunology And Allergy Keywords: Malaria elimination; Mathematical model; Human mobility; Intervention chemotherapy
Online: 29 September 2020 (14:42:16 CEST)
In central Senegal malaria incidences have declined from 2000 to 2010 in response to scaling-up of control measures and then remained stable, making elimination improbable. Additional control measures are needed to reduce transmission. We simulated chemoprophylaxis interventions targeting malaria hotspots, using a meta-population mathematical model based on differential equation framework and incorporating human mobility. The model was fitted to weekly malaria incidences from 45 villages. Three approaches for selecting intervention targets were compared: a) villages with malaria cases during the low transmission season of the previous year; b) villages with highest incidences during the high transmission season of the previous year; c) villages with highest connectivity with adjacent populations. Our modeling, considering human mobility, showed that the intervention strategies targeting hotspots would be effective in reducing malaria incidence in both targeted and untargeted areas. But whatever the intervention, pre-elimination stage (1-5 cases per 1,000 per year) would not be reached without simultaneously increasing vector control by more than 10%. Targeted interventions allow increasing overall malaria control and elimination potential.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201607.0028.v7
Subject: Physical Sciences, Thermodynamics Keywords: Maxwell’s demon; magnetic demon; entropy decrease; entropy elimination
Online: 31 July 2020 (03:42:27 CEST)
In a vacuum tube two identical and parallel Ag-O-Cs emitters A and B (work function 0.8eV) ceaselessly emit thermal electrons at room temperature. The thermal electrons are controlled by a static uniform magnetic field so that the number of electrons migrate from A to B exceeds the one from B to A (or vice versa). The net migration of thermal electrons from A to B quickly results in a charge distribution of A charged positively and B negatively, and a potential difference between A and B emerges, enabling a continuous output current and a stable power to an external load (e.g., a resistor). Thus, the tube cools down (slightly). The (slightly) cooled tube extracts heat from ambient air, and all the heat is converted into electric energy without other effect. We believe the experiment is in contradiction to the Kelvin statement of the second law.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202308.1060.v1
Subject: Public Health And Healthcare, Public, Environmental And Occupational Health Keywords: Pakistan; Hepatitis B; Hepatitis C; Elimination; Prevalence; Screening; Refugees
Online: 15 August 2023 (09:31:50 CEST)
Hepatitis B and C are major health issues in developing countries such as Pakistan and Afghan-istan. The aim of this study was to determine the prevalence and effectiveness of a screening program for hepatitis B and C in a region with no existing programs, and to estimate their prev-alence in the general population in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Province, Pakistan, as well as in Afghan refugees or migrants. A retrospective cohort study was done in the general population of Peshawar and its adjacent districts, as well as migrants from neighboring provinces of Afghani-stan, who presented to our tertiary-care health facility. A Microsoft Excel registry was created for data collection, which were analyzed using IBM SPSS via descriptive analysis, normal distribution curve histograms, and chi-squared tests. A total of 9563 individuals were screened for hepatitis (5894 males and 3669 females), including Afghan migrants in Peshawar and surrounding districts. 876 individuals tested positive for hepatitis, with 538 positive for hepatitis B (383 males and 155 females) and 330 positive for hepatitis C (198 males and 134 females). Eight individuals had a hepatitis B and C co-infection. Among the study population, the prevalence rates were 2.2% for hepatitis B and 2.3% for hepatitis C, of which the Afghan migrants accounted for 2.7% and 0.5%, respectively. According to the gender-based distribution, hepatitis B was more prevalent in males, whereas there was no significant gender-based difference for hepatitis C. Our results highlight the need for a comprehensive approach to control hepatitis B and C in Pakistan and Afghanistan. Increased awareness, improved healthcare, and preventive measures such as screening and elimination programs to prevent severe liver diseases and eradicate hepatitis are necessary.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202311.0152.v1
Subject: Public Health And Healthcare, Public Health And Health Services Keywords: Antigua and Barbuda; hepatitis B; vaccination coverage; birth dose; elimination
Online: 2 November 2023 (09:57:25 CET)
The Hepatitis B virus, chronically infects over 240 million persons worldwide. The Hepatitis B vaccine is 90% effective in preventing perinatal transmission if the first dose is given within the first 24 hours of life followed by a minimum of 2 subsequent doses. In October 2021, Antigua and Barbuda, through it’s only public hospital - the Sir Lester Bird Medical Centre, instituted a hospital based Hepatitis B vaccine birth dose policy. Timely birth dose coverage was 72% and total birth dose coverage 81%. 10.5% of parents refused the hepatitis b – birth dose, of which 76% either felt uncomfortable or preferred to wait. 100% of babies born before arrival received timely vaccine administration, likewise 100% of Hepatitis B exposed babies were vaccinated, with 83% of them receiving the Hepatitis B Immunoglobulin. A maternal Hepatitis B surface antigen result was available for 90.4% of mothers. Barriers to timely birth dose administration included vaccination hesitancy, gaps in healthcare worker knowledge, and the consistent supply of Hepatitis B vaccine. Instituting a quality improvement team, health information system, robust educational efforts, and addressing barriers will make achieving the WHO programmatic targets of eliminating mother to child transmission of hepatitis B by 2030 possible.
CASE REPORT | doi:10.20944/preprints202305.1900.v1
Subject: Medicine And Pharmacology, Pathology And Pathobiology Keywords: Gout; Tophus; Perforating Dermatosis; Transepidermal Elimination; Pseudoepitheliomatous Hyperplasia; Granulomatous Dermatitis
Online: 26 May 2023 (09:36:26 CEST)
Perforating dermatoses are dermatologic disorders with transepidermal elimination (TE) of dermal substances. While TE is typically associated with collagen and elastin, it can also occur as a secondary event in other processes, and it is important to keep a broad differential. We present a case of perforating tophaceous gout, which underscores the need for a thoughtful approach to perforating disorders. An updated review of recent literature is also presented.
REVIEW | doi:10.20944/preprints202305.2261.v1
Subject: Medicine And Pharmacology, Dietetics And Nutrition Keywords: Rheumatoid Arthritis; Nutritional Approaches; Natural Products; Mediterranean Diet; Elimination Diet: Diets
Online: 31 May 2023 (14:22:59 CEST)
Genetic and environmental factors including lifestyle are thought to play an important role in the pathophysiology of rheumatoid arthritis (RA). There is evidence that diet can enhance the inflammatory response in genetically predisposed individuals. On the other hand, certain types of diets are thought to alleviate RA symptoms due to their anti-inflammatory and antioxidant activities. Also, natural compounds with potential effectiveness in RA management belong to different chemical classes such as flavonoids, polyphenols, carotenoids, and alkaloids with their antioxidant characteristics. In this paper, the nutritional approaches to prevent or extenuate the disease progress were examined in the light of current literature. Mediterranean and vegan diets equally have been shown to exhibit positive effects on RA as the consumption of dietary fiber, antioxidants and anti-inflammatory compounds from fruits, vegetables, grains, nuts, and seeds are high. Whereas Mediterranean diet additionally includes beneficial nutrients of animal origin such as omega-3 polyunsaturated fatty acids from fish and seafood, patients on vegan diet need to be monitored closely for intake of all critical nutrients. Certain calorie restrictions and intermittent fasting diets have been shown to benefit RA patients although there is an obvious need for further studies to establish solid evidence-based recommendations and guidelines. The research data available strongly suggest that dietary approaches may help delay the onset of RA and/or improve symptoms and thus nutrition should be routinely addressed to facilitate management of the disease.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202207.0429.v1
Subject: Arts And Humanities, Philosophy Keywords: cut-elimination; Hilbert arithmetic; metaphor; proposition; propositional logic; quantum meas-urement
Online: 28 July 2022 (06:27:31 CEST)
Hilbert arithmetic in a wide sense, including Hilbert arithmetic in a narrow sense consisting by two dual and anti-isometric Peano arithmetics, on the one hand, and the qubit Hilbert space (originating for the standard separable complex Hilbert space of quantum mechanics), on the other hand, allows for an arithmetic version of Gentzen’s cut elimination and quantum measurement to be described uniformy as two processes occurring accordingly in those two branches. A philosophical reflection also justifying that unity by quantum neo-Pythagoreanism links it to the opposition of propositional logic, to which Gentzen’s cut rule refers immediately, on the one hand, and the linguistic and mathematical theory of metaphor therefore sharing the same structure borrowed from Hilbert arithmetic in a wide sense. An example by hermeneutical circle modeled as a dual pair of a syllogism (accomplishable also by a Turing machine) and a relevant metaphor (being a formal and logical mistake and thus fundamentally inaccessible to any Turing machine) visualizes human understanding corresponding also to Gentzen’s cut elimination and the Gödel dichotomy about the relation of arithmetic to set theory: either incompleteness or contradiction. The metaphor as the complementing “half” of any understanding of hermeneutical circle is what allows for that Gödel-like incompleteness to be overcome in human thought.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202010.0496.v1
Subject: Engineering, Automotive Engineering Keywords: power system protection; renewable energy sources; fault elimination; power system security
Online: 23 October 2020 (15:37:19 CEST)
In the development of power systems it is indicated very often, that transformation of power systems should be carried out in accordance with the idea of energy democracy. This will develop energy communities, that are trying to meet energy needs by using local renewable generation sources. This may result with a temporary low load on the MV lines connecting the community grid and the power system. Such state may cause incorrect operation of power protection systems. This can cause an extended protection operation time, due to decision algorithms inactivity at low values of measurement currents. Therefore, the detailed MV lines overcurrent digital protection model and a dynamic model of the power network were developed. The simulation results are showing that the settings of the parameters activating the protection decision algorithms affect their operation time in dynamic conditions. The conclusion is that the development of the power protection automatics must be carried out in the same time (preferably in advance) with the change of the power system operation model. This is very important for future power systems with high penetration energy communities and renewable generation sources.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202311.1591.v1
Subject: Computer Science And Mathematics, Artificial Intelligence And Machine Learning Keywords: random forest; machine learning; chatter; stability; recursive feature elimination simulation; additive manufacturing
Online: 24 November 2023 (09:21:01 CET)
Vibration monitoring is a critical aspect of assessing the health and performance of machinery and industrial processes. This study explores the application of machine learning techniques, specifically the Random Forest (RF) classification model, to predict and classify chatter—a detrimental self-excited vibration phenomenon—during machining operations. While sophisticated methods have been employed to address chatter, this research investigates the efficacy of a simplified RF model. The study leverages simulated vibration data, bypassing resource-intensive real-world data collection, to develop a versatile chatter detection model applicable across diverse machining configurations. The feature extraction process combines time-series features and Fast Fourier Transform (FFT) data features, streamlining the model while addressing challenges posed by feature selection. By focusing on the RF model’s simplicity and efficiency, this research advances chatter detection techniques, offering a practical tool with improved generalizability, computational efficiency, and ease of interpretation. The study demonstrates that innovation can reside in simplicity, opening avenues for wider applicability and accelerated progress in the machining industry.
REVIEW | doi:10.20944/preprints202304.0761.v1
Subject: Medicine And Pharmacology, Epidemiology And Infectious Diseases Keywords: Seroprevalence; genotype diversity; Caribbean; HCV elimination; Pan genotype treatment; high-risk population
Online: 23 April 2023 (04:14:36 CEST)
INTRODUCTION There have been several advances in the treatment of hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection which have resulted in major reductions in the morbidity and mortality from liver-associated disease. These are not widely available in the Caribbean, due in part, to lack of knowledge of the epidemiology of infections with HCV. As efforts are made to eliminate HCV from the region, these and other existing barriers such as lack of an established database on HCV must be addressed. This review seeks to identify gaps in the knowledge of HCV in the Caribbean with respect to seroprevalence, genotype distribution and general epidemiologic characteristics. MATERIALS AND METHODS The literature for the period January 1, 2005, to October 2022, was reviewed to gather country specific data on HCV across the Caribbean. References were identified through indexed journals accessed through established databases. The usage pattern of HCV drugs was determined from data obtained from Pharmacists and Infectious Diseases Specialists across the region. RESULTS The prevalence of HCV in the Caribbean was 1.5%; the region should therefore be considered an area of moderate prevalence. Notably, data from specific countries were limited. The prevalence of HCV among intravenous drug users (21.9-58.8%); persons living with HIV/AIDS (0.8 to 58.5%); prisoners (32.8-64%) and men who have sex with men (MSM) (0.8-6.9%) was generally higher than in the general population (0.8-2.3%). Genotype 1 (83% was most prevalent followed by genotypes 2 (7.2%) and 3(2.1%), respectively. Drugs currently being used for treatment of HCV infections across the Caribbean include Epclusa (Sofosbuvir/velpatasvir), and Harvoni (Ledipasvir/sofosbuvir). Some of these drugs, are only available in the private sector and are sourced externally whenever needed. CONCLUSION There is a paucity of current data on the seroprevalence of HCV in the Caribbean and well-designed prospective studies are indicated to drive the implementation of treatment and control programs for HCV in the region. Barriers which need to be first overcome include unavailability and high cost of drugs used to treat HCV infections, injecting drug use and limited access to medical care and laboratory testing.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202207.0366.v1
Subject: Medicine And Pharmacology, Tropical Medicine Keywords: onchocerciasis; community directed treatment with ivermectin; elimination; epilepsy; focus group discussions; misconceptions
Online: 25 July 2022 (09:27:22 CEST)
Despite of over 20 years of community directed treatment with ivermectin (CDTI), a high prevalence of onchocerciasis and onchocerciasis-associated epilepsy were observed in rural villages in Mahenge, Tanzania. Therefore, we assessed the knowledge, attitude and practice about onchocerciasis in four rural villages in the Mahenge area. This was a qualitative study conducted between June and July 2019. Eleven focus group discussions were organized with persons with epilepsy and their caretakers, community resource persons, and community drug distributors (CDDs), and two in-depth interviews with district programme coordinators of neglected tropical diseases (NTD). Most participants were aware about symptoms of onchocerciasis using local terminologies such as “ukurutu/rough dry skin” and “kuwashwa/itching”. A small proportion of people did not take ivermectin during CDTI for fear of adverse reactions such as itching and swelling. Some men believed that ivermectin may decrease libido. Challenges for high CDTI coverage included, long walking distance by CDDs to deliver drugs to households, persons being away for farming, low awareness of the disease and limited supervision by the NTD coordinators. In conclusion, ivermectin uptake in Mahenge should be optimised by continuous advocacy about the importance of taking ivermectin to prevent onchocerciasis-associated morbidity and by improving supervision during CDTI.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202203.0039.v1
Subject: Computer Science And Mathematics, Artificial Intelligence And Machine Learning Keywords: aquaponic; pair-wise correlation matrix; XGBoost; Recursive Feature Elimination; ExtraTreesClassifier; median; closed loop
Online: 2 March 2022 (07:59:49 CET)
Nutrient regulation in aquaponic environments has been the topic of research for many years. Most have focused on appropriate control of nutrients in an aquaponic set-up, but very little research has been done on commercial scale applications. In our model, the input data was sourced on a weekly basis from three commercial aquaponic farms in South-East Texas over the course of a year. Due to limited number of data points, dimensionality reduction techniques like pair-wise correlation matrix was used to remove the highly correlated predictors. Feature selection techniques like the XGBoost classifier and Recursive Feature Elimination with ExtraTreesClassifier were used to rank the features in order of their relative importance. Ammonium and calcium were found to be the top two nutrient predictors and based on the months in which lettuce was cultivated, the median of these nutrient values from the historical dataset served as the optimal concentrations to be maintained in the aquaponic solution. To accomplish this, Vernier sensors were used to measure the nutrient values and actuator systems were built to dispense the appropriate nutrient into the ecosystem via a closed loop.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202106.0343.v1
Subject: Biology And Life Sciences, Biochemistry And Molecular Biology Keywords: Hyaluronoglucosaminidase; Hyaluronidase; Hyaluronic Acid; Hyaluronate; Eukaryota; Hepatopancreas; Transcriptome; Crustacea; Bacteria; beta-elimination; NMR
Online: 14 June 2021 (10:04:39 CEST)
Crustacean hyaluronidases are 1 poorly understood both in terms of their enzymatic properties and in terms of their structural features. In this work, we have shown that the hepatopancreas homogenate of the red king crab has a hyaluronidase activity that is an order of magnitude higher than its commercial counterpart. Zymography revealed the hyaluronidase activity of the protein roughly from40 to 50 kDa relative to the molecular marker used in electrophoresis. Analysis of the hepatopancreas transcriptome revealed a hyaluronidase sequence with an expected molecular weight of 42.5 kDa. It turned out that the reaction of cleavage of hyaluronate in the presence of a homogenate proceeds by the mechanism of b-elimination, which is well known for bacterial hyaluronidases. Thus, a new hyaluronidase of higher eukaryotes was found and described, which is not integrated into the modern classification of hyaluronidases.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202008.0181.v1
Subject: Computer Science And Mathematics, Computer Science Keywords: Artificial Neural Networks; Gradient Descent; Back Propagation; Instance Elimination; Speed up; Batch Size
Online: 7 August 2020 (09:29:54 CEST)
Artificial Intelligence is dominated by Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs). Currently, the Batch Gradient Descent (BGD) is the only solution to train ANN weights when dealing with large datasets. In this article, a modification to the BGD is proposed which significantly reduces the training time and improves the convergence. The modification, called Instance Eliminating Back Propagation (IEBP), eliminates correctly-predicted-instances from the Back Propagation. The speedup is due to the elimination of unnecessary matrix multiplication operations from the Back Propagation. The proposed modification does not add any training hyperparameter to the existing ones and reduces the memory consumption during the training.
CONCEPT PAPER | doi:10.20944/preprints202007.0290.v1
Subject: Engineering, Electrical And Electronic Engineering Keywords: active harmonics filter; PQ theory; reactive power compensation; harmonics elimination; SIL; dSPACE- Targetlink
Online: 14 July 2020 (05:21:07 CEST)
The evolution in semiconducting devices has introduced flexible control on a system but it has also penetrated harmonics in the grid, which results in extra electrical stress and load. Limiting the presence of harmonics in the grid and low power factor maintained by consumers has become of utmost priority to the power system analyst. Hence, the need for Active Filter emerges. Here, a real-time simulation, in dSPACE- Targetlink, of shunt harmonics active filter is propounded. The possible basic control strategy used in the simulation is ”Instantaneous Power Theory”. Control logic of two features of Active Filter viz., Global Harmonics Elimination, and Reactive Power Compensation are produced in the paper. The results obtained in ”Software In Loop Mode” of dSPACE are discussed and verified in detail. The richness of the code generated by the dSPACE- Target link can be reasoned by observing the results which are well aligned with the industrial standards regarding the harmonics.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201902.0158.v1
Subject: Computer Science And Mathematics, Logic Keywords: Density elimination; Pseudo-uninorm logic; Standard completeness of HpsUL∗; Substructural logics; Fuzzy logic
Online: 18 February 2019 (10:42:15 CET)
Our method for density elimination is generalized to the non-commutative substructural logic GpsUL∗. Then the standard completeness of HpsUL∗follows as a lemma by virtue of previous workbyMetcalfeandMontagna. This result shows that HpsUL∗ is the logic of pseudo-uninorms and their residua and answered the question posed by Prof. Metcalfe, Olivetti, Gabbay and Tsinakis.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201902.0159.v1
Subject: Computer Science And Mathematics, Logic Keywords: Density elimination; Involutive uninorm logic; Standard completeness of IUL; Semilinear substructural logics; Fuzzy logic
Online: 18 February 2019 (10:44:53 CET)
We present a uniform method of density elimination for several semilinear substructural logics. Especially, the density elimination for the involutive uninorm logic IUL is proved. Then the standard completeness of IUL follows as a lemma by virtue of previous work by Metcalfe and Montagna.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202302.0383.v1
Subject: Computer Science And Mathematics, Probability And Statistics Keywords: Building fire; Socioeconomic determinants; South East Queensland; Predictive model; Forecasting; Backward elimination; Robust final predictor error
Online: 22 February 2023 (09:37:47 CET)
Building fires are preventable incidents that have proven to be both deadly and costly. Addressing their root causes will lead to safer neighbourhoods for families and businesses to live and operate in. Multiple studies have established the effect of residents’ socioeconomic compositions on an area’s building fire rates; however, the existing model based on the classical stepwise regression procedure has several limitations. This paper aims to construct a more accurate predictive model of building fire rates based on a set of explanatory socioeconomic variables. In building the socioeconomic model, a backward elimination by Robust Final Predictor Error (RFPE) criterion is proposed to enhance the forecasting capability of the model. The proposed method has been implemented on the census data and the fire incident data of the South East Queensland region in Australia. A cross-validation was then conducted to assess the model’s accuracy. In addition, comparative analyses of other elimination criteria, such as p-value, adjusted R-squared, Akaike’s Information Criterion (AIC), Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC) and predicted residual error sum of squared (PRESS), were conducted. The cross-validation analyses demonstrate that the proposed criterion is a more accurate predictive model based on a couple of goodness-of-fit measures. All in all, the RFPE equation was found to be a suitable criterion for the backward elimination procedure in the socioeconomic modelling of building fires.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201608.0092.v1
Subject: Engineering, Marine Engineering Keywords: long cylindrical structure; free-surface Green function; higher-order boundary element method; multipole expansion; singularity elimination; Gauss-Kronrod; numerical quadrature; OpenMP parallelization
Online: 9 August 2016 (10:50:40 CEST)
The present study aims to develop an efficient numerical method for computing the diffraction and radiation of water waves with horizontal long cylindrical structures, such as floating breakwaters. A higher-order scheme is used to discretize geometry of the structure as well as the relevant physical quantities. As the kernel of this method, Wehausen’s free-surface Green function is calculated by a newly-developed Gauss-Kronrod adaptive quadrature algorithm after elimination of its Cauchy-type singularities. To improve computational efficiency, a Chebyshev approximation approach is applied to a fast calculation of the Green function that needs evaluation thousands of times. In addition, OpenMP parallel technique is used to the formation of influence coefficient matrix, which significantly reduces CPU time. Finally, computations are performed on wave exciting forces and hydrodynamic coefficients for the long cylindrical structures, either floating or submerged. Comparison with other numerical and analytical methods demonstrates good performance of the present method.