Preprint Review Version 2 Preserved in Portico This version is not peer-reviewed

Epidemiology-Based Analysis of the Risks and Elimination Strategies of the Monkeypox Outbreak in 2022

Version 1 : Received: 3 October 2022 / Approved: 4 October 2022 / Online: 4 October 2022 (11:10:54 CEST)
Version 2 : Received: 14 November 2022 / Approved: 14 November 2022 / Online: 14 November 2022 (09:43:24 CET)

A peer-reviewed article of this Preprint also exists.

Chen, J.-M.; Chen, R.-X.; Gong, H.-Y.; Zhao, M.-M.; Ji, Y.-F.; Sun, M.-H.; Li, G.-H.; Tan, S.-M.; Zhang, G.-H.; Chen, J.-W. Epidemiology-Based Analysis of the Risks and Elimination Strategies of the Monkeypox Outbreak in 2022. Frontiers in Veterinary Science, 2022, 9. https://doi.org/10.3389/fvets.2022.1064766. Chen, J.-M.; Chen, R.-X.; Gong, H.-Y.; Zhao, M.-M.; Ji, Y.-F.; Sun, M.-H.; Li, G.-H.; Tan, S.-M.; Zhang, G.-H.; Chen, J.-W. Epidemiology-Based Analysis of the Risks and Elimination Strategies of the Monkeypox Outbreak in 2022. Frontiers in Veterinary Science, 2022, 9. https://doi.org/10.3389/fvets.2022.1064766.

Abstract

Human monkeypox, caused by monkeypox virus, has spread unprecedentedly to more than 100 countries since May 2022. Here we summarized the epidemiology of monkeypox through a literature review and elucidated the risks and elimination strategies of this outbreak mainly based on the summarized epidemiology. We demonstrated that monkeypox virus became more contagious and less virulent in 2022, which could result from the fact that the virus entered a special transmission network favoring close contacts (i.e., sexual behaviors of men who have sex with men outside Africa) and the possibility that the virus accumulated a few adaptive mutations. We gave the reasons to investigate whether cattle, goats, sheep, and pigs are susceptible to monkeypox virus and whether infection with monkeypox virus could be latent in some primates. We listed six potential scenarios for the future of the outbreak (e.g., the outbreak could lead to endemicity outside Africa with increased transmissibility or virulence). We also listed multiple factors aiding or impeding the elimination of the outbreak. We showed that the control measures strengthened worldwide after the World Health Organization declared the outbreak a public health emergency of international concern (PHEIC) could eliminate the outbreak in 2022. We clarified eight strategies, i.e., publicity and education, case isolation, vaccine stockpiling, risk-based vaccination or ring vaccination, importation quarantine, international collaboration, and laboratory management, for the elimination of the outbreak.

Keywords

monkeypox; risk; elimination; epidemiology; outbreak; prediction

Subject

Biology and Life Sciences, Virology

Comments (1)

Comment 1
Received: 14 November 2022
Commenter: Ji-Ming Chen
Commenter's Conflict of Interests: Author
Comment: (1) The counts of human monkeypox cases and the relevant prediction were updated
(2)  A phylogenetic tree was added to show the phylogenetic relationships of monkeypox viruses.
(3) Figure 2B was changed into a table.
(4) Four references were added.
(5) Many sentences were optimized.
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