Preprint Article Version 1 Preserved in Portico This version is not peer-reviewed

Targeting Malaria Hotspots to Reduce Transmission Incidence in Senegal

Version 1 : Received: 28 September 2020 / Approved: 29 September 2020 / Online: 29 September 2020 (14:42:16 CEST)

How to cite: Sallah, K.; Giorgi, R.; Ba, E.; Piarroux, M.; Piarroux, R.; Cisse, B.; Gaudart, J. Targeting Malaria Hotspots to Reduce Transmission Incidence in Senegal. Preprints 2020, 2020090716 (doi: 10.20944/preprints202009.0716.v1). Sallah, K.; Giorgi, R.; Ba, E.; Piarroux, M.; Piarroux, R.; Cisse, B.; Gaudart, J. Targeting Malaria Hotspots to Reduce Transmission Incidence in Senegal. Preprints 2020, 2020090716 (doi: 10.20944/preprints202009.0716.v1).

Abstract

In central Senegal malaria incidences have declined from 2000 to 2010 in response to scaling-up of control measures and then remained stable, making elimination improbable. Additional control measures are needed to reduce transmission. We simulated chemoprophylaxis interventions targeting malaria hotspots, using a meta-population mathematical model based on differential equation framework and incorporating human mobility. The model was fitted to weekly malaria incidences from 45 villages. Three approaches for selecting intervention targets were compared: a) villages with malaria cases during the low transmission season of the previous year; b) villages with highest incidences during the high transmission season of the previous year; c) villages with highest connectivity with adjacent populations. Our modeling, considering human mobility, showed that the intervention strategies targeting hotspots would be effective in reducing malaria incidence in both targeted and untargeted areas. But whatever the intervention, pre-elimination stage (1-5 cases per 1,000 per year) would not be reached without simultaneously increasing vector control by more than 10%. Targeted interventions allow increasing overall malaria control and elimination potential.

Subject Areas

Malaria elimination; Mathematical model; Human mobility; Intervention chemotherapy

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