ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202010.0361.v1
Subject: Engineering, Automotive Engineering Keywords: Accident; Accident connotation; Accident science; New definition of safety; Conceptual model of accident science; Discipline basic construction
Online: 19 October 2020 (09:25:37 CEST)
In order to establish a new discipline specializing in accident science from the perspective of safety science. Under the guidance of the current research theories and methods of safety science, combined with the research paradigm of humanities and social medicine, this paper puts forward new viewpoints, new theories and new models about accident research. First of all, through literature retrieval, this paper analyzes the relevant research results of accidents at home and abroad, and expounds the existing problems and the basic trend of accident science research. Secondly, it puts forward eight kinds of attribute relations of the accident, and makes clear the characteristics and connotation of the accident. In the study of accident types, a hierarchical classification model based on accident cognition is created for the first time. It also points out the logical relevance of five levels of accident science research and the realistic relevance of three levels. At the same time, according to the thought of science of science, this paper puts forward a new definition of safety under the thinking of accident science and other basic concepts related to safety science, and explains the connotation. In addition, it creates and constructs the basic concept of accident science, establishes the conceptual model of accident science, and points out the “3-4-5” model of accident science research and its connotation. Thirdly, draw lessons from the interdisciplinary paradigm to study the relevant theoretical basis and discipline classification relationship of accident science, and construct the tree of accident science. Finally, the research contents of three main aspects of accident science are summarized. The results show that the research results in this paper not only play a fundamental role in the basic construction of accident science, but also further enrich and perfect the discipline system of safety science, which has a certain theoretical significance.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201903.0226.v2
Subject: Engineering, Marine Engineering Keywords: maritime traffic; marine accident; accident causation theory; human factor; structural equation modeling; HFACS; path dependency
Online: 26 March 2019 (10:53:41 CET)
Many causal factors to marine traffic accidents (MTA) influence each other and have associated effects. It is necessary to quantify the correlation path mode of these factors to improve accident prevention measures and their effects. In the application of human factors to the accident mechanisms, the complex structural chains on causes to MTA systems were analyzed combining the Human Failure Analysis and Classification System (HFACS) with theoretical Structural Equation Modeling (SEM). First, the accident causation model was established as a human error analysis classification in sight of MTA, and the constituent elements of the causes of accident was conducted. Second, a hypothetical model of Human factors classification was proposed applying the practice of the structural model. Third, with the data resource from ship accident cases, this hypothetical model was discussed and simulated, and as a result the relationship path dependency mode between the latent independent variable of the accident was quantitatively analyzed based on the observed dependent variable of human behaviors. Application examples show that relationships in HFACS are verified and in line with the path developing mode, and resource management factors have a pronounced influence and a strong relevance to the causal chain of the accidents. Appropriate algorithms for the theoretical model can be used to numerically understand the safety performance of marine traffic systems under different parameters through mathematical analysis. Hierarchical assumptions in the HFACS model are quantitatively verified.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201906.0072.v1
Subject: Social Sciences, Microeconomics And Decision Sciences Keywords: telematics; motor insurance; speed control; accident prevention
Online: 10 June 2019 (09:08:04 CEST)
We analyze real telematics information for a sample of drivers with usage-based insurance policies. We examine the statistical distribution of distance driven above the posted speed limit – which presents a strong positive asymmetry – using quantile regression models. We find that, at different percentile levels, the distance driven at speeds above the posted limit depends on total distance driven and, more generally, on such factors as the percentages of urban and nighttime driving and on the driver’s gender. However, the impact of these covariates differs according to the percentile level. We stress the importance of understanding telematics information, which should not be limited to simply characterizing average drivers, but can be useful for signaling dangerous driving by predicting quantiles associated with specific driver characteristics. We conclude that the risk of driving long distances above the speed limit is heterogeneous and, moreover, we show that prevention campaigns should target primarily male, non-urban drivers, especially if they present a high percentage of nighttime driving.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201811.0230.v1
Subject: Engineering, Civil Engineering Keywords: accident; construction project; causes; Bangladesh; RII based rank
Online: 9 November 2018 (03:29:17 CET)
Bangladeshi construction industry suffers a lot of safety and accidental issues than other developing countries in the world. Among many of these, accident of construction project goes far beyond and shape a horrific figure of death for every year. The aims of this study is that analysis and discussion of causes of accident at construction project in Bangladesh. A widespread statistical data collection and data analysis take place to identify the causes and design the questionnaire. The questionnaire-based survey was used to elicit the attitude of four stakeholders as workers, owners, consultants, and contractors towards passive causes of fatal accident at construction site. These study also identify 77 passive causes under 14 major groups and ranked them based on Relative Importance Index (RII). The top 5 major group of causes are (1) Management related, (2) Consultant related, (3) Technology related, (4) Labour related and (5) Contractor related. The top 5 passive causes are: (1) Unaware of safety-related issue, (2) Lack of personal protective equipment, (3) Lack of safety eliminating/ avoiding design, (4) Unfit equipment, (5) Lack of knowledge and training on equipment.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202112.0490.v1
Subject: Engineering, General Engineering Keywords: Accident traffic; app store; mobile app; mortality; notifications; scrum methodology.
Online: 30 December 2021 (16:20:03 CET)
This research work deals with traffic accidents that are very concurrent in several countries, which in turn contribute to the mortality rate from 19 to 25 years of age and up. In the research work, immediate notifications for traffic accidents were carried out through a mobile application (app) where it will have an emergency button which will help the injured a lot, since the nearest help centers such as the police, fire brigades and the nearest hospitals, so that they can provide support to the people who suffered the accident. In the project, the implementation of Scrum Methodology was used since it served us an amount for the development of the prototypes of the App, and in turn with their roles it did not serve much help for the project, however, passers-by are of vital importance already that they will be the ones to make said report when observing a traffic accident and thus notify the nearest aid centers. As data collection for the creation of the software functions, a survey was carried out with more than 30 people, the functions applied in the application were programmed with the Dart language and generated under the flutter tool in order to be able to distribute it on different platforms such as Play Store and AppStore. The results obtained were the most anticipated since the application fulfills its function, thus reducing deaths and improving the speed of attention to traffic accidents and thus saving a life that is in danger.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201910.0338.v1
Subject: Engineering, Marine Engineering Keywords: ship collision accident; early warning; probability of causation; environmental factor
Online: 29 October 2019 (11:02:10 CET)
In the case that ship operators may not be aware of the potential risks of environmental factors in situation of high causation probability during the initial stage of the geometric probability analysis process, it is likely that higher-grade collision accident measures will not be taken. However, if any risks is told to the ship operators, more effective and intentional measures can be taken in time. Moreover, if the causation probability corresponding to environmental factors is no less than the risk early warning critical value calculated based on historical collision accident data, there would be a high-risk level that a collision may occur. A new method is put forward based on quantitative analysis of environmental factors and previous collision statistics to provide early warning of any accident risk, and a risk early-warning critical value (REWCV) can be obtained based on this simple but highly operational and practical method. A case study of Three Gorges Reservoir in China indicates that the range of environmental factors where the probability of collision accident grows rapidly is consistent with environmental limits defined by Chinese maritime standards. In addition, the relationship between the risk early-warning critical value and the number of previous collision accident is also clarified.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201801.0231.v1
Subject: Engineering, Other Keywords: Data mining; Association rules; Previous Cause; Type of Accident; Overexertion
Online: 24 January 2018 (19:40:52 CET)
An analysis of workplace accidents in the mining sector has been done using the database from the Spanish administration between the period 2005-2015 and applying data mining techniques. Data has been processed by means of the software Weka. Two scenarios were chosen regarding the accidents database, surface and underground mining. The most important variables involved in occupation accidents and their association rules have been determined. These rules are formed by several predictor variables that cause an accident, defining its characteristics and context. This study exposes the 20 most important association rules of the sector, either surface or underground mining, based on statistical confidence levels of each rule obtained by Weka. The outcomes display the most typical immediate causes with the percentage of accident basis of each association rule. The most typical immediate cause is body movement with physical effort or overexertion and type of accident is physical effort or overexertion. On the other hand, the second most important immediate cause and type of accident change in both scenarios. Data mining techniques have been proved as a very powerful tool to find out the root of the accidents, apply corrective measures and verify their effectiveness, either for public or private companies.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202107.0016.v1
Subject: Keywords: Industrial Laborers, Accident rate, Artificial neural network, Human factor, Predictive models
Online: 1 July 2021 (11:17:53 CEST)
This paper attempts to compare two different approaches to solve the problem of accident rates prediction based on human factors for industrial workers. One of the methods has already been done using Fuzzy c-Means Clustering and proved to be working with decent results. The second method which will be covered in this paper is using Artificial Neural Networks. The primary goal of this work is to insure that ANN will work efficiently in such prediction problem. The second goal is to reveal the fact that which one of the two selected methodologies is better at defining the estimation of accident rates among people who work in different industrial fields. The purpose has been achieved when the outcome of the ANN was obtained and compared accordingly with the output of the research previously carried out with Fuzzy c-means clustering method. Comparing the outcomes of these two different methods gave an immense insight on which features are more important than others when it comes to laborers properties with completely different background such as varying levels of health, knowledge, experience, training and physical properties. At the end of the research, it becomes clear that accident rates estimation for laborers with properly trained Artificial Neural Network gives better results when it is compared with Fuzzy c-Means Clustering method. Standard deviation method was used to calculate the validity of ANN technique. The result was compared with Fuzzy c-mean clustering technique. Impressive improvement of 8.8% in the accident rate prediction was achieved using Tailored-Made-ANN.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201709.0150.v1
Subject: Engineering, Civil Engineering Keywords: overall risk; technical infrastructure; major accident; explosive for civil use; terrorist attack
Online: 29 September 2017 (04:38:10 CEST)
The paper presents the results of the theoretical and practical research on developing the infrastructure for assessment of overall risk (explosion / occupational / terrorist attack) associated with unwanted events such as major accidents that can occur at explosive storehouses for civilian use. The scientific research outlined in this article was carried out within the Nucleu Project PN 16 43 02 15 - “Research on increasing safety levels at technical facilities for storage of explosives for civil use”.
CONCEPT PAPER | doi:10.20944/preprints201705.0121.v1
Subject: Biology, Other Keywords: Genetic code evolution; frozen accident; error minimization; stereochemcial theory; evolution of translation
Online: 16 May 2017 (12:52:10 CEST)
Nearly 50 years ago, Francis Crick propounded the frozen accident scenario for the evolution of the genetic code along with the hypothesis that the early translation system consisted primarily of RNA. Under the frozen accident perspective, the code is universal among modern life forms because any change in codon assignment would be highly deleterious. The frozen accident can be considered the default theory of code evolution because it does not imply any specific interactions between amino acids and the cognate codons or anticodons, or any particular properties of the code. The subsequent 49 years of code studies have elucidated notable features of the standard code, such as high robustness to errors, but failed to develop a compelling explanation for codon assignments. In particular, stereochemical affinity between amino acids and the cognate codons or anticodons does not seem to account for the origin and evolution of the code. Here I expand Crick’s hypothesis on RNA-only translation system by presenting evidence that this early translation already attained high fidelity that allowed protein evolution. I outline an experimentally testable scenario for the evolution of the code that combines a distinct version of the stereochemical hypothesis, in which amino acids are recognized via unique sites in the tertiary structure of proto-tRNAs, rather than by anticodons, expansion of the code via proto-tRNA duplication and the frozen accident.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201808.0530.v2
Subject: Behavioral Sciences, Cognitive & Experimental Psychology Keywords: accident, investigation, punishment, language, multiple stories, crime, framing, human error, systems thinking, actions
Online: 3 October 2018 (13:12:44 CEST)
The language we use to describe the past can have a strong influence on the audience’s interpretation of our story. In our experiment, we explore, using 3 different conditions, how the framing and language of an accident report can affect the audience’s proposed solutions to manage the problems found. We find that the approach used to create an accident report can have a powerful influence on the audience’s decision making. Whether we are describing an accident in a similar manner to a crime, using a systems approach or we are accepting of multiple stories which are not linear or coherent, the methods we use to capture and communicate the story have a profound impact on the actions decided upon by the reader.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202011.0211.v1
Subject: Engineering, Automotive Engineering Keywords: Climate Change; Occupational Accidents; Weather Circumstances; Heat Stress; Precipitation; Accident Mortality; time-series analyses
Online: 5 November 2020 (12:26:54 CET)
In the steel industries, workers are exposed to heat and ambient thermal stresses on a daily basis, leading to discomfort and limited performance. In this study, the main purpose is to investigate the effect of climate heat stress on the rate of accidents in the workplace for workers for 5 consecutive years. The data of this study were received without any sampling through the HSE Center for Steel Industry and meteorological data from 2015 to 2019 from Isfahan Meteorological station. The daily number of casualties among workers in the steel industry during 2015-2019 by adjusting seasonal patterns, months, effects of the day of the week and other meteorological factors on the average daily temperature using the studied model has a decreasing effect. Eviews software (version 8) was used to model and investigate the relationship between events and meteorological variables. The mean temperature was at least 40.2-2 and at most 70.34 ° C, respectively. In the time-series study for the main model, the number of accidents shows a direct relationship with the average temperature and wind speed. Climatic indices of humidity and rainfall have the least impact on accidents compared to temperature and wind speed. A strong correlation was shown between the increase in average ambient temperature and the rate of accidents over the past 5 years. Given the fundamental differences in studies of environmental exposure and wind speed over heat stress, further analysis in workers should be considered.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201810.0326.v1
Subject: Mathematics & Computer Science, Numerical Analysis & Optimization Keywords: clustering-based optimization; location optimization; flood-filling algorithm; marine accident; rescue ship; shortest distance
Online: 15 October 2018 (16:53:32 CEST)
Currently, maritime traffic is increasing with economic growth in several regions worldwide. However, this growth in maritime traffic has led to increased risk of marine accidents. These accidents have a higher probability of occurring in regions where geographical features, such as islands, are present. Further, the positioning of rescue ships in a particular ocean region with a high level of maritime activity is critical for rescue operations. This paper proposes a method for determining an optimal set of locations for stationing rescue ships in an ocean region with numerous accident sites in the Wando islands of South Korea. The computational challenge in this problem is identified as the positioning of numerous islands of varying sizes located in the region. Thus, the proposed method combines a clustering-based optimization method and an image processing approach that incorporates flood filling to calculate the shortest distance between two points in the ocean that detours around the islands. Experimental results indicate that the proposed method reduces the distance from rescue ships and each accident site by 5.0 km compared to the original rescue ship locations. Thus, rescue time is reduced.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202010.0380.v1
Subject: Earth Sciences, Other Keywords: APR1400; COM3D; Containment Integrity; Hydrogen Flame Acceleration; Multi-Dimensional Hydrogen Analysis System; Overpressure; PAR; Severe Accident
Online: 19 October 2020 (13:20:32 CEST)
Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute (KAERI) established a multi-dimensional hydrogen analysis system to evaluate a hydrogen release, distribution, and combustion in the containment of a nuclear power plant using MAAP, GASFLOW, and COM3D. KAERI developed the COM3D analysis methodology on the basis of the COM3D validation results against the experiments of ENACCEF and THAI. The proposed analysis methodology accurately predicts the peak overpressure with an error range of approximately ±10% using the Kawanabe turbulent flame speed model. KAERI performed a hydrogen flame acceleration analysis using the multi-dimensional hydrogen analysis system for a severe accident initiated by a station blackout (SBO) under the assumption of 100% metal-water reaction in the reactor pressure vessel for evaluating an overpressure buildup in the Advanced Power Reactor 1400 MWe (APR1400). The COM3D calculation results using the established analysis methodology showed that the calculated peak pressure in the containment was much lower than the fracture pressure of the APR1400 containment. This calculation result may have resulted from a large air volume of the containment, a reduced hydrogen concentration owing to passive auto-catalytic recombiners installed in the containment, and a lot of stem presence during the hydrogen flame acceleration in the containment. Therefore, we can know that the current design of the APR1400 containment maintains its integrity when the flame acceleration occurs during the severe accident initiated by the SBO accident.
REVIEW | doi:10.20944/preprints202009.0162.v2
Subject: Biology, Anatomy & Morphology Keywords: amyloids; frozen accident; genetic code; hydrogels; liquid-liquid phase separation; mRNA; polyglycine; rRNA; ribosomes; translational fidelity; tRNA
Online: 21 October 2020 (10:48:18 CEST)
The genetic code evolved by parallel tracks of chaotic and ordered processes. Liquid-liquid phase separation (hydrogels), a chaotic process, constructs diverse membraneless compartments within cells, resulting in regulated hydration and sequestration and concentration of reaction components. Hydrogels relate to chaotic amyloid fiber production. We propose that polyglycine and related hydrogels (i.e. GADV; G is glycine), phase separations, membraneless droplets and amyloid accretions organized protocell domains to drive the earliest evolution of the genetic code and the pre-life to cellular life transition. By contrast, evolution of tRNA, tRNAomes, aminoacyl-tRNA synthetases and translation systems followed highly ordered and systematic pathways, described by well-defined mechanisms and rules. The pathway of evolution of aminoacyl-tRNA synthetases, which tracked evolution of the genetic code, is clarified. Hydrogels and amyloids form a chaotic component, therefore, that complemented otherwise systematic processes. We describe with detail a pre-life world in which hydrogels and amyloids provided the selections of the first life.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202007.0346.v1
Subject: Medicine & Pharmacology, General Medical Research Keywords: COVID-19; deaths; doctor; nurse; pharmacist; healthcare worker; frontline; occupational risk; suicide; violent death; accident; pandemic; SARS-CoV-2
Online: 16 July 2020 (08:28:55 CEST)
Background: Over 900,000 cases of COVID-19 and 23,000 deaths have been reported till 13 July in India. Preserving the limited healthcare workforce is part of the strategy against the pandemic. Mortality and morbidity data have a role in customising this strategy. At this time, there is no published study on COVID-related mortality among doctors or other healthcare workers in India. Methods: A multi-pronged search was made for all reported deaths linked with COVID-19 among doctors in India. Details of COVID-linked deaths reported by mainstream media and by multiple professional social media sources were collected, screened, verified and analysed. Violent deaths occurring in the setting of pandemic-related work were separately listed. Deaths from other diseases were excluded. Results: Among 108 COVID-linked deaths among doctors, there were four pandemic-related violent deaths including three road accidents and a suicide. Of the 104 non-violent deaths, 55.5% were below 60 years of age, while 29.6% and 21% were below the age of 50 and 40 respectively. The average age at death was 56.3 (range 22 - 96). Over half of the deaths occurred among general practitioners, while surgical specialties accounted for 27% of the mortality. The geographic distribution of deaths of doctors correlated with the reported number of COVID-19 patients in each state. The total number of COVID-related healthcare worker deaths was 136, out of which eight (5.8%) were violent, and occurred in young individuals with an average age of 27.8 years. Conclusions: The majority of the 104 COVID-related non-violent deaths among doctors (55.5%) occurred below the age of 60. The average at death was 56.6 years. The states with highest number of COVID-19 cases had greater number of doctor deaths. Violent deaths among young healthcare workers in the setting of the pandemic requires special attention.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201706.0113.v1
Subject: Engineering, Control & Systems Engineering Keywords: conceptual modeling; cyber-physical systems; cyber-physical gap; Object-Process Methodology; model-based systems engineering; Three Mile Island 2 Accident
Online: 26 June 2017 (04:59:29 CEST)
: The cyber-physical gap (CPG) is the difference between the 'real' state of the world and the way the system perceives it. This discrepancy often stems from the limitations of sensing and data collection technologies and capabilities, and is an inevitable issue in any cyber-physical system (CPS). Ignoring or misrepresenting such limitations during system modeling, specification, design, and analysis can potentially result in systemic misconceptions, disrupted functionality and performance, system failure, severe damage, and potential detrimental impacts on the system and its environment. We propose CPG-Aware Modeling & Engineering (CPGAME), a conceptual model-based approach for capturing, explaining, and mitigating the CPG, on top of and in sync with the conventional system model, and as an inherent systems engineering activity. This approach enhances the systems engineer’s ability to cope with CPGs, mitigate them by design, and prevent erroneous decisions, actions, and hazardous implications. CPGAME is a generic, conceptual approach, specified and demonstrated with Object Process Methodology (OPM). OPM is a holistic conceptual modeling paradigm for multidisciplinary, complex, dynamic systems, which is also ISO-19450. We analyze the 1979 Three Miles Island 2 nuclear accident as a prime example of the disastrous consequences of unmitigated CPGs in complex systems.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202012.0392.v1
Subject: Earth Sciences, Geophysics Keywords: Earth’s natural pulse electromagnetic field; stress-strain state of rock mass; magnetic field strength; magnetic induction; pipeline; measurement; accident; civil communication
Online: 15 December 2020 (19:52:19 CET)
The paper presents an analysis of the method of recording the magnetic component of the Earth’s natural pulse electromagnetic field in an urban environment. This method of recording has already proved itself to be a method that allocates the stressed sections of rock mass at mining and, therefore, authors suppose its effectiveness for allocating active tectonic disturbances and forecasting accidents at underground utilities, what will help reduce the potential environmental hazard of these objects.