Preprint Article Version 1 This version is not peer-reviewed

A New Risk-based Early-warning Method for Ship Collision Avoidance

Version 1 : Received: 28 October 2019 / Approved: 29 October 2019 / Online: 29 October 2019 (11:02:10 CET)

How to cite: Chen, Y.; Chen, S.; Gelder, P.V.; Xie, C.; Huang, L. A New Risk-based Early-warning Method for Ship Collision Avoidance. Preprints 2019, 2019100338 (doi: 10.20944/preprints201910.0338.v1). Chen, Y.; Chen, S.; Gelder, P.V.; Xie, C.; Huang, L. A New Risk-based Early-warning Method for Ship Collision Avoidance. Preprints 2019, 2019100338 (doi: 10.20944/preprints201910.0338.v1).

Abstract

In the case that ship operators may not be aware of the potential risks of environmental factors in situation of high causation probability during the initial stage of the geometric probability analysis process, it is likely that higher-grade collision accident measures will not be taken. However, if any risks is told to the ship operators, more effective and intentional measures can be taken in time. Moreover, if the causation probability corresponding to environmental factors is no less than the risk early warning critical value calculated based on historical collision accident data, there would be a high-risk level that a collision may occur. A new method is put forward based on quantitative analysis of environmental factors and previous collision statistics to provide early warning of any accident risk, and a risk early-warning critical value (REWCV) can be obtained based on this simple but highly operational and practical method. A case study of Three Gorges Reservoir in China indicates that the range of environmental factors where the probability of collision accident grows rapidly is consistent with environmental limits defined by Chinese maritime standards. In addition, the relationship between the risk early-warning critical value and the number of previous collision accident is also clarified.

Subject Areas

ship collision accident; early warning; probability of causation; environmental factor

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