REVIEW | doi:10.20944/preprints202007.0262.v1
Subject: Public Health And Healthcare, Health Policy And Services Keywords: SARS-COV-2; COVID-19; Lockdown; Epidemiological Models; Machine Learning; Transmission
Online: 12 July 2020 (15:18:48 CEST)
In Wuhan city of China, an episode of novel coronavirus (COVID-19) happened. during late December and it has quickly spread to all places in the world. Until May 29, 2020, cases were high in the USA with 1.7 Million, Russia with approximately 387 thousand, the UK with 271 thousand confirmed cases. Everybody on the planet is anxious to know when the coronavirus pandemic will end. In this scourge, most nations force extreme medication measures to contain the spread of COVID-19. Modeling has been utilized broadly by every national government and the World Health Organization in choosing the best procedures to seek after in relieving the impacts of COVID-19. Many epidemiological models are studied to understand the spread of the illness and its prediction to find maximum capacity for human-to-human transmission so that control techniques can be adopted. Also, arrangements for the medical facilities required such as hospital beds and medical supplies can be made in advance. Many models are used to anticipate the results keeping in view the present scenario. There is an urgent need to study the various models and their impacts. In this study, we present a systematic literature review on epidemiological models for the outbreak of novel coronavirus in India. The epidemiological dynamics of COVID-19 is also studied. Here, In addition, an attempt to take out the results from the exploration and comparing it with the real data. The study helps to choose the models that are progressive and dependable to predict and give legitimate methods for various strategies.
CONCEPT PAPER | doi:10.20944/preprints202109.0162.v3
Subject: Biology And Life Sciences, Virology Keywords: epidemiological model; dwarf peak phenomenon; herd immunity; Covid-19
Online: 27 September 2022 (04:51:54 CEST)
Compartmental models that dynamically divide the host population in categories such as susceptible, infected and immune constitute the mainstream of epidemiological modelling. Effectively such models treat infection and immunity as binary variables. We constructed an individual based stochastic model that considers immunity as a continuous variable and incorporates factors that bring about small changes in immunity. The small immunity effects (SIE) comprise cross immunity by other infections, small increments in immunity by sub clinical exposures and slow decay in the absence of repeated exposure. The model makes qualitatively different epidemiological predictions including repeated waves without the need for new variants, dwarf peaks (peak and decline of a wave much before reaching herd immunity threshold), symmetry in the upward and downward slopes of a wave, endemic state, new surges after variable and unpredictable gaps, new surge after vaccinating majority of population. In effect the SIE model raises alternative possible causes of the universally observed dwarf and symmetric peaks and repeated surges, observed particularly well during the Covid-19 pandemic. We also suggest testable predictions to differentiate between the alternative causes for repeated waves. The model further shows complex interactions of different interventions that can be synergistic as well as antagonistic. The model suggests that interventions that are beneficial in the short run can also be hazardous in the long run.
CONCEPT PAPER | doi:10.20944/preprints202110.0295.v4
Subject: Biology And Life Sciences, Ecology, Evolution, Behavior And Systematics Keywords: epidemiological models; transmission; biodiversity; dilution effect
Online: 30 March 2023 (15:26:45 CEST)
With the rising frequency of pathogen spillover worldwide, wildlife disease dynamics have received increased attention. There are many possible pathway a pathogen can invade and spread through a host population, and the assumed transmission model used to capture disease propagation can influence predictions of pathogen net reproductive success (R0), determining the outbreak dynamics. We synthesize a comprehensive overview of these models and overarching implications, using bovine Tuberculosis (Mycobacterium bovis) as a case study. We unify sub-models from the disease ecology literature and clarify the biological motivation behind these models and resulting ecological dynamics. We warn readers of pitfalls regarding the relative orders of the transmission parameters and reiterate that the contact rate determines the transmission model and thus defines key dynamical properties of an outbreak. Transmission in wildlife is linked to ecosystem and human health, and host community structure can mediate pathogen spread. We link these models with disease-biodiversity theories, by considering the role of host diversity in disease transmission, contributing to the debate on the effect of biodiversity and on disease outbreak potential. We decompose the various mechanisms of transmission in a stepwise process, and provide the reader a guide for modelling pathogens in both single-host and multi-host systems.
REVIEW | doi:10.20944/preprints202304.0228.v1
Subject: Medicine And Pharmacology, Epidemiology And Infectious Diseases Keywords: Lassa fever; epidemic; epidemiological analysis; pathogenesis; prevention
Online: 12 April 2023 (02:52:58 CEST)
Lassa fever, commonly known as Lassa hemorrhagic fever (LHF), is one of the progressive illnesses invading a large population of two to three million individuals in West Africa. The infection transmitted through the rodents severely impacts the local population and the medical professionals in surrounding areas, which were also the primary target of LHF. In epidemic areas, Lassa fever causes a public health threat since it poses a significant morbidity and fatality Case rate (CFR) ≥ 50%). The disease is widespread in West Africa and has developed into one of the most common and life-threatening viral hemorrhagic fevers. Monitoring and preventing persistent disease outbreaks has been challenging in affected regions due to insufficient healthcare facilities, diagnostics labs, care centers, and low socioeconomic conditions. An absence of public awareness and the emergence of an ecological niche is advantageous for the survival and multiplication of the mouse (Mastomys natalensis) inhabiting the Lassa virus serving as the disease's natural host and reservoir. The current review focuses on early diagnosis and appropriate treatment, highlighting the immediate requirement of clinically approved vaccines for LHF, causing preventative and control actions more difficult in the present era.
COMMUNICATION | doi:10.20944/preprints202005.0138.v1
Subject: Biology And Life Sciences, Virology Keywords: covid-19; epidemiology; epidemiological week; Brazil; coronavirus; viruses
Online: 8 May 2020 (08:08:40 CEST)
Amid the covid-19 pandemic, other diseases, including viruses, are still acting to the detriment of their seasonality and risk factors for contagion. For this reason, it is interesting to know the degree of impact of other viruses, mainly respiratory, in which they have similar symptoms, in diagnoses for contamination by the new coronavirus based on epidemiological surveys, via epidemiological weeks, in Brazil. To what extent there may be a hypothesis of confusion of contaminated data, harming the health system, with regard to the need for intensive care units and control of viruses, and negatively or positively implying in the control or uncontrolling of viruses in general.
REVIEW | doi:10.20944/preprints201703.0014.v2
Subject: Environmental And Earth Sciences, Environmental Science Keywords: PM10; TSP; pollutants; element markers; epidemiological; dispersion modeling
Online: 13 March 2017 (08:49:10 CET)
No doubt pollution is a global problem which must be holistically tackled. In doing this, adequate knowledge of the sources of pollution is important, therefore the aim of this paper is to review source apportionment with reference to top-down and bottom-up methods. In this paper, dispersion modeling, emissions inventory, and sampling methods were discussed. Also, analytical methods involved in top-down source apportionment were mentioned. The two techniques are needed to evaluate pollutants and their sources. Based on these two approaches, pollution control strategy would be developed and decisions can be made in deciding the right approach to solve or reduce the pollution problems.
Subject: Medicine And Pharmacology, Immunology And Allergy Keywords: public health nursing; epidemiological surveillance; nursing diagnosis; arterial hypertension
Online: 7 December 2020 (08:22:22 CET)
Background: Epidemiological surveillance of nursing diagnosis is an approach anchored on a post-modern epidemiology focused on persons health-disease responses. Regarding to public health priorities, the population where our study occurred had as priority problem the arterial hypertension. Related to this chronical disease, nursing diagnoses about health-disease responses in primary healthcare has as major focus Therapeutic Regime Management. Our aim was to study the nursing diagnosis in this issue, from an epidemiological approach. Methods: A descriptive study from an epidemiological approach was developed, analyzing nursing diagnoses in hypertensive patients. Results: We found 17,7% of undiagnosed patients and better diagnoses in patients with complications than in those without complications. Conclusions: nursing records need to be improved in order to promote more robust studies in the post-modern epidemiology defended for the future.
COMMUNICATION | doi:10.20944/preprints202011.0298.v1
Subject: Biology And Life Sciences, Anatomy And Physiology Keywords: control measures; diagnosis; epidemiological data; Kazakhstan; lumpy skin disease
Online: 10 November 2020 (10:13:28 CET)
Lumpy skin disease (LSD) is an emerging transboundary viral disease of cattle originating from the African continent. Here we describe the first LSD outbreak reported in the Republic of Kazakhstan, in July 2016. Initially, LSD was reported in a cattle farm located 49 km from Kazakh –Russian border in, Atyrau Oblast in West Kazakhstan. Subsequently, the disease spread to neighbouring farms situated within the same district. Following a preliminary investigation, the local State Veterinary Service declared a strict quarantine according to the State Contingency Plan, along with immediate total stamping out and cattle movement restrictions. During the outbreak, the number of affected cattle within an epidemiological unit reached 459 cattle out of registered 3557 susceptible cattle with 12.90% morbidity and 0.96%, mortality. This manuscript presents the epidemiological situation, the diagnosis, the control measures including mass vaccination and the stamping out campaign.s
CASE REPORT | doi:10.20944/preprints201909.0081.v1
Subject: Medicine And Pharmacology, Pharmacology And Toxicology Keywords: mercury; prenatal exposure; postnatal outcome; environmental health; epidemiological monitoring
Online: 7 September 2019 (01:06:51 CEST)
Background: It is well known the adverse effect of mercury exposure on pregnant women and newborns. Interactions between environmental factors and individual genetic susceptibility have been identified, particularly polymorphisms of codifying genes for the Glutathione S-transferase family (GSTs). Herein, we report a case series of patients with high Hg levels in biosamples. Case Series: Fourteen cases with high Hg levels were identified. Non-occupational or home exposure risk factors were identified. All mothers reported fish consumption during pregnancy. Almost 60% of the individuals were null for either one GSTs gene. To date, in the subsequent mother-child pairs toxicology controls no signs or symptoms of poisoning were identified and most of the mercury levels decreased and are below the accepted limit. Discussion: In this case series we found some similarities with the literature; among them, the relation of Hg ratio in maternal blood and umbilical cord, a possible exposure factor is the consumption of fish during pregnancy and, the high levels of Hg may be related with susceptibility biomarkers such as GSTs gene polymorphisms. This case series highlights the need to develop studies that evaluate the interactions between environmental factors and individual genetic susceptibility. Additionally, the importance of evaluating which Colombian fish species present the highest levels of Hg.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202303.0494.v1
Subject: Computer Science And Mathematics, Artificial Intelligence And Machine Learning Keywords: malaria vector; deep learning; image classification; drone images; epidemiological control
Online: 28 March 2023 (15:57:27 CEST)
Disease control programs need to identify breeding sites of mosquitoes which transmit malaria and other diseases to target interventions and identify environmental risk factors. Increasing availability of very high resolution drone data provides new opportunities to find and characterize these vector breeding sites. Within this study, we identified land cover types associated with malaria vector breeding sites in West Africa. Drone images from two malaria endemic regions in Burkina Faso and Côte d’Ivoire were assembled and labeled using open-source tools. We developed and applied a workflow using region of interest-based and deep learning methods to classify these habitat types from very high resolution natural color imagery. Analysis methods achieved a dice coefficient ranging between 0.68 and 0.88 for different vector habitat types; however, this classifier consistently identified the presence of specific habitat types of interest. This establishes a framework for developing deep learning approaches to identify vector breeding sites and highlights the need to evaluate how results will be used by control programs.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202212.0404.v1
Subject: Biology And Life Sciences, Virology Keywords: HPAI; H5N1; Italy; genetic network; epidemiological investigation; contact tracing; ERGM
Online: 22 December 2022 (01:14:38 CET)
Between October 2021 and April 2022, 317 outbreaks caused by highly pathogenic avian influen-za (HPAI) H5N1 viruses were notified in poultry farms in the northeastern Italian Regions. The complete genomes of 214 strains were used to estimate the genetic network based on the virus similarity. An exponential random graph model (ERGM) was used to assess the effect of at-risk contacts, same owners, in-bound/out-bound risk windows overlap, genetic differences, geograph-ic distances, same species and poultry company, on the probability of observing a link within the genetic network, which can be interpreted as the potential propagation of the epidemic via lateral spread or a common source of infection. The variables same poultry company (Est.=0.548, C.I.=[0.179;0.918]) and risk windows overlap (Est.=0.339, C.I.=[0.309;0.368]) were associated with a higher probability of link formation, while the genetic differences (Est.=-0.563, C.I.=[-0.640;-0.486]) and geographic distances (Est.=-0.058, C.I.=[-0.078;-0.038]) indicated a re-duced probability. The integration of epidemiological data with genomic analyses allows moni-toring the epidemic evolution and helps explain the dynamics of lateral spreads suggesting the potential diffusion routes. The 2021-2022 epidemic stresses the need to further strengthen the bi-osecurity measures, and to encourage the reorganisation of the poultry production sector to mini-mize the impact of future epidemics.
REVIEW | doi:10.20944/preprints202205.0370.v1
Subject: Biology And Life Sciences, Virology Keywords: Acute non hepA–E hepatitis; clinical manifestations; epidemiological characteristics; prevention
Online: 27 May 2022 (08:41:42 CEST)
The emergence of acute, severe non hepA–E hepatitis of unknown etiology (ASHUE) has attracted global concern owing to the very young age of the patients and its unknown etiology. Although this condition has been linked to several possible causes, including viral infection, drugs, and/or toxin exposure, the exact cause remains unknown; this makes treatment recommendations very difficult. In this review, we summarize recent updates on the clinical manifestations, complemented with laboratory results, case numbers with the global distribution and other epidemiological characteristics, and the possible etiologies. We also provide the proposed actions that could be undertaken to control and prevent further spread of this hepatitis. Since many etiological and pathological aspects of the acute non hepA–E hepatitis remain unclear, further research is needed to minimize the severe impact of this disease.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201908.0172.v1
Subject: Public Health And Healthcare, Public Health And Health Services Keywords: epidemiological survey; foodborne illnesses; food contamination; food safety; public health
Online: 16 August 2019 (05:50:39 CEST)
This study aimed to assess the foodborne diseases (FBD) outbreaks reported in Brazil between 2000 and 2018, based on data from the Brazilian Ministry of Health (official data) and from the scientific literature. According to official data, 13,163 FBD outbreaks were reported in the country during this period, involving 247,570 cases and 195 deaths. The largest prevalence of FBD outbreaks was observed in the Southeast region of Brazil (45.6%). In most outbreaks it was not possible to determine the food implicated (45.9%) but among those identified, water was the most frequently associated (12.0%). The etiological agent was not identified in most outbreaks (38.0%), while Salmonella (14.4%) was the most frequently reported, among those identified. Homes were the main site of FBD occurrence (12.5%). Regarding data obtained from the scientific literature, 57 articles dealing with FBD in the country throughout the same period were selected and analyzed. Based on these articles, mixed foods were the most prevalent in the outbreaks (31.6%), Salmonella spp. was the pathogen most frequently reported (22.8%) and homes were also the main site of FBD occurrence (45.6%). Despite under-notification, the records of FBD outbreaks that have occurred in Brazil in the past recent years show alarming data, requiring attention from health authorities. The notification of outbreaks is essential to facilitate public health actions.
REVIEW | doi:10.20944/preprints202305.1908.v1
Subject: Medicine And Pharmacology, Epidemiology And Infectious Diseases Keywords: COVID-19; Mechanism of Action; Clinical and Epidemiological Features; Global Pandemic Infectious Disease
Online: 26 May 2023 (09:59:10 CEST)
The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is a novel global pandemic infectious disease with higher potential for outbreaks than the other epidemic disease such as severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS), influenza A (H1N1), and the Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS), which identified in China on December 31, 2019. This disease is caused by a new generation of betacoronavirus termed as the 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) or SARS-CoV-2. Although, the first report of this disease was in recent months, now, the COVID-19 is known as a global pandemics. Hence, the aim of this article is the quick review of the recent studies on the novel coronavirus disease 2019 including researches on the epidemiological parameters, mechanism of action, diagnosis, and treatment of the novel coronavirus disease, as well as clinical features of patients infected with COVID-19. Moreover, the novel COVID-19 has comprised of SARS, H1N1, and MERS.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202012.0021.v1
Subject: Computer Science And Mathematics, Analysis Keywords: Coronavirus disease; COVID-19; outbreak model; Gaussian-SIRD model; SIRD model; epidemiological model
Online: 1 December 2020 (13:11:02 CET)
The eruption of COVID-19 patients in 215 countries worldwide has urged for robust predictive methods that can detect as early as possible the size and duration of the contagious disease and also providing precision predictions. In much recent literature reported on COVID-19, one or more essential parts of such investigation were missed. One of the crucial elements for any predictive method is that such methods should fit simultaneously as much data as possible; these data could be total infected cases, daily hospitalized cases, cumulative recovered cases, and deceased cases, and so on. Other crucial elements include sensitivity and precision of such predictive methods on the amount of data as the contagious disease evolved day by day. To show the importance of these aspects, we have evaluated the standard SIRD model and a newly introduced Gaussian-SIRD model on the development of COVID-19 in Kuwait. It is observed that the SIRD model quickly picks up the main trends of COVID-19 development, but the Gaussian-SIRD model provides precise prediction a longer period of time.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202005.0093.v1
Subject: Public Health And Healthcare, Public Health And Health Services Keywords: Internet; medical sociology; epidemiological monitoring; SARS-CoV-2; COVID-19; communications media; risk perception
Online: 6 May 2020 (04:23:46 CEST)
Introduction: Due to the spread of SARS CoV-2 virus responsible for COVID-19 disease, there is an urgent need to analyse COVID-19 epidemic perception in Poland. This study aims to investigate social perception of coronavirus in the Internet media during the epidemic. It is a signal report highlighting the main issues in public perception and medical commutation in real time. Methods: We study the perception of COVID-19 epidemic in Polish society using quantitative analysis of its digital footprints on the Internet on platforms: Google, Twitter, YouTube, Wikipedia and electronic media represented by Event Registry, from January 2020 to 29.04.2020 (before and after official introduction to Poland on 04.03.20). We present trend analysis with a support of natural language processing techniques. Results: We identified seven temporal major clusters of interest on the topic COVID-19: 1) Chinese, 2) Italian, 3) Waiting, 4) Mitigations, 5) Social distancing and Lockdown, 6) Anti-crisis shield, 7) Restrictions releasing. There was an exponential increase of interest when the Polish government “declared war against disease” around 11/12.03.20 with a massive mitigation program. Later on, there was a decay in interest with additional phases related to social distancing and an anti-crisis legislation act with local peaks. We have found that declarations of mitigation strategies by the Polish prime minister or the minister of health gathered the highest attention of Internet users. So enacted or in force events do not affect interest to such extent. Traditional news agencies were ahead of social media (mainly Twitter) in dissemination of information. We have observed very weak or even negative correlations between a colloquial searching term 'antiviral mask' in Google, encyclopaedic definition in Wikipedia “SARS-CoV-2” as well official incidence series, implying different mechanisms governing the search for knowledge, panic related behaviour and actual risk of acquiring infection. Conclusions: Traditional and social media do not only reflect reality, but also create it. Risk perception in Poland is unrelated to actual physical risk of acquiring COVID-19. As traditional media are ahead of social media in time, we advise to choose traditional news media for a quick dissemination of information, however for a greater impact, social media should be used. Otherwise public information campaigns might have less impact on society than expected.
REVIEW | doi:10.20944/preprints202004.0065.v2
Subject: Medicine And Pharmacology, Epidemiology And Infectious Diseases Keywords: COVID-19; case fatality rate; Italy; testing; health care system; demographics; comorbidites; epidemiological trends
Online: 4 May 2020 (18:38:16 CEST)
There is much discussion among clinicians, epidemiologists, and public health experts about why case fatality rate from COVID-19 in Italy (at 13.3% as of April 20, 2020, versus a global case fatality rate of 6.9%) is considerably higher than estimates from other countries (especially China, South Korea, and Germany). In this article, we propose several potential explanations for these differences. We suggest that Italy’s overall and relative case fatality rate, as reported by public health authorities, is likely to be inflated by such factors as heterogeneous reporting of coronavirus-related fatalities across countries and the iceberg effect of under-testing, yielding a distorted view of the global severity of the COVID-19 pandemic. We also acknowledge that deaths from COVID-19 in Italy are still likely to be higher than in other equally affected nations due to its unique demographic and socio-economic profile. Lastly, we discuss the important role of the stress imparted by the epidemic on the Italian healthcare system, which weakened its capacity to adequately respond to the sudden influx of COVID-19 patients in the most affected areas of the country, especially in the Lombardy region.
Subject: Medicine And Pharmacology, Epidemiology And Infectious Diseases Keywords: coronavirus; COVID-19; public health intervention; revive economy; disease severity; epidemiological model and R0
Online: 4 May 2020 (15:08:26 CEST)
We previously proposed a public intervention framework concept that would allow people to resume personal and economic activities. We showed that intervention measures are used in a quantitative scale to reduce transmission probabilities and disease severity. In this article, we systematically examine the origin, assumptions, performance and limitations of epidemiological models from different views used in past review. We found that nearly all model assumptions fail to hold or are remote from reality; R0 does not exit or has no utility in guiding treatment options; personalized intervention measures are vitally important to COVID-19 due to its transmission characteristic; and current epidemiological models are unable to accurately assess the true benefits of personalized intervention measures. We suggest that poor performance of the models are attributed to flawed assumption that health/disease properties can be treated as transferable properties. The flaw creates a fiction that disease properties such as infection probabilities and death risks can be transferred from any vulnerable persons to anyone in the population and thus severely limit societal ability to fight the pandemic. We finally show that the benefits of personalized mitigation measures could be determined directly by using variable Ri values for infected persons (or nodes) together assessment of death rate and disability rate; the attempt of avoiding the disease by defeating all potential transmission probabilities is unrealistic; but mitigating disease severity for specific persons is more feasible and reliable. A most reliable strategy for reviving economy is using personalized protective measures and improving person health before effective vaccine is available.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201807.0093.v1
Subject: Medicine And Pharmacology, Cardiac And Cardiovascular Systems Keywords: cardiomyopathy; hemodynamic and biochemical parameters; epidemiological and clinical Parameters; phospholamban angiotensin-1-converting enzyme
Online: 5 July 2018 (10:43:43 CEST)
Background: Cardiomyopathy is commonly observed disease that may occurs due to mutations in either susceptible genes or modifier gene. People with broad age group are affected either attributable to spontaneous or inherited mutations of these genes. Various gene mutations are reported so far but only few of them were studied in detail. Methods: In the current study, we evaluated epidemiological variables like age, sex, familial status, parental consanguinity. We also described specific clinical symptoms associated with the cardiomyopathy condition in Indian population. Results: Our studies on mutation screening of phospholamban gene revealed two transitions (4880 C/T, 4887 T/G) in 5’ flanking region which might cause inherited dilated cardiomyopathy with refractory congestive heart failure are We further deliberated the gene polymorphism of renin angiotensin system gene angiotensin-1-converting enzyme as an associated marker/ modifier in cardiomyopathy patients and their family members. Conclusions: Information on epidemiological, clinical statistics, phospholamban gene mutation analysis and angiotensin-1-converting enzyme gene polymorphism is essential to guide the successful execution for future therapies and benefits us to identify those patients at risk for faster disease progression, congestive heart failure, and arrhythmia.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201608.0038.v1
Subject: Environmental And Earth Sciences, Environmental Science Keywords: historical reconstruction; modeling; drinking water; water quality; VOC; epidemiological study; health study; Camp Lejeune
Online: 4 August 2016 (10:09:23 CEST)
A U.S. government health agency conducted epidemiological studies to evaluate whether exposures to drinking water contaminated with volatile organic compounds at U.S. Marine Corps Base Camp Lejeune, North Carolina, were associated with increased health risks to children and adults. These health studies required knowledge of contaminant concentrations in drinking water—at monthly intervals—delivered to family housing, barracks, and other facilities within the study area. Because concentration data were limited or unavailable during much of the period of contamination (1950s–1985), the historical reconstruction process was used to quantify estimates of monthly mean contaminant-specific concentrations. This paper integrates many efforts, reports, and papers into a synthesis of the overall approach to, and results from, a drinking-water historical reconstruction study. Results show that at the Tarawa Terrace water treatment plant (WTP) reconstructed (simulated) tetrachloroethylene (PCE) concentrations reached a maximum monthly average value of 183 micrograms per liter (ug/L) compared to a one-time maximum measured value of 215 ug/L and exceeded the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s current maximum contaminant level (MCL) of 5 ug/L during the period November 1957–February 1987. At the Hadnot Point WTP, reconstructed trichloroethylene (TCE) concentrations reached a maximum monthly average value of 783 ug/L compared to a one-time maximum measured value of 1,400 ug/L during the period August 1953–December 1984. The Hadnot Point WTP also provided contaminated drinking water to the Holcomb Boulevard housing area continuously prior to June 1972, when the Holcomb Boulevard WTP came on line (maximum reconstructed TCE concentration of 32 ug/L) and intermittently during the period June 1972–February 1985 (maximum reconstructed TCE concentration of 66 ug/L). Applying the historical reconstruction process to quantify contaminant-specific monthly drinking-water concentrations is advantageous for epidemiological studies when compared to using the classical exposed versus unexposed approach.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202005.0372.v1
Subject: Medicine And Pharmacology, Pulmonary And Respiratory Medicine Keywords: COVID-19; SARS-CoV-2; Coronavirus; Pandemic; Epidemiological Analysis; Exponential Growth; Herd Immunity; Doubling Period
Online: 23 May 2020 (10:36:33 CEST)
As an on-going pandemic caused by the out-break of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) or simply COVID-19 sweeps through the globe at an unprecedented rate leaving behind trails of high infection and mortality, it is crucial to understand the propagation dynamics of the virus in a host population in order to take urgent and effective remedial and mitigating steps to save life. It is already observed in many countries and communities that accurate and timely testing, tracing, and tracking of the infection lead to better containment and slowing down of the spread. In this exploratory research, the early growth dynamics of infection within a population is pursued based on real data. The study posits that the early growth in a homogenous population follows an exponential pattern motivating further rigorous quantitative treatment based on a number of analytical models such as logistic model, Richard’s model, and Gompertz model– the acceleration pattern of the outbreak is ascertained from the daily inflection data, and regression analysis against population models yields dynamic growth indices which allow very accurate prediction of the successive outbreak size when calibrated continually with updated data. The performance of the various models is evaluated with the real dataset. More, the basic reproduction number of the COVID-19 virus propagation in the community is estimated based on the on-set phase dataset using multi-compartmental epidemiological model. Also, the maximum infection size, infection doubling time and the scope of the herd immunity are also inferred for COVID-19 in a population.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202005.0090.v1
Subject: Computer Science And Mathematics, Mathematical And Computational Biology Keywords: epidemiological model; basic reproduction number; SIR; SEIR; COVID-19; stochas-tic model; Monte-Carlo simulation
Online: 6 May 2020 (03:15:02 CEST)
We review and assess the classic SIR and SEIR epidemiological models regarding possible applications to the COVID-19 pandemic. In spite of numerous more complicated models, we show how the qualitative features of the solution to the SIR and SEIR models continue to provide valuable public health insights in some scenarios. Using estimated COVID-19 data as of this date, the SEIR model shows that if it were possible to reduce R0 from 2.5 to 1.25 through social distancing and other measures, the maximum fraction of the population that would become infected at any particular time would drop from 17% to 4%, provided that all of the model assumptions are satisfied. Finally, we compare the classic SIR model with a recent stochastic model with favorable results. Since this comparison underscores the importance of underlying connectivity assumptions, we conclude with Monte-Carlo simulations with specific connectivity that reproduce the classical SIR model with standard incidence.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202008.0104.v1
Subject: Social Sciences, Behavior Sciences Keywords: coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19); pandemic; infectious disease; psychological (mental) consequences; mental distress; outbreak; epidemiological study
Online: 4 August 2020 (16:16:23 CEST)
Background: Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is an ongoing pandemic and life-threatening highly infectious disease. The people of Bangladesh are at high risk of COVID-19 and have already experienced various socio-economic, health and psychological (mental) consequences. Particularly, mental health problems are dominantly reported in the literature and should be controlled. The main objective of this epidemiological study is to assess the mental distress and identify its determinants using online-based survey. Such information is urgently needed to develop feasible strategies for Bangladesh. Methods: An online survey was conducted for this study from May 01 to May 05, 2020. A total of 240 respondents provided self-reported online responses. Respondent’s mental distress was measured by the General Health Questionnaire 12 (GHQ-12) and by the self-rated mental health (SRMH) question. Various kinds of statistical analyses ranging from simple to multivariable logistic recession were performed using SPSS 23.0. Results: About 31.3% and 48.3% of respondents were mentally distressed by GHQ-12 and SRMH question, respectively. Logistic regression analysis revealed that mental distress was significantly higher among those respondents, whose usual activity was affected by the coronavirus (OR = 6.40, 95% CI: 1.87 - 21.90, p<0.001) and whose financial stress was increased due to lockdown (OR = 2.12, 95% CI: 1.01 – 4.46, p<0.05) on GHQ-12. Female sex (OR = 1.97, 95% CI: 1.03 – 3.75, p<0.05) and respondents with poor mental health before the outbreak (OR = 3.38, 95% CI: 1.18 – 9.72, p<0.05) were also significantly affected by mental distress on SRMH. Conclusions: At least thirty percent of the respondents were found to be mentally distressed. Some of the study findings, particularly significant determinants, should be considered while developing strategies to reduce the burden of mental distress among study respondents or similar group in Bangladesh.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202305.0997.v1
Subject: Public Health And Healthcare, Public, Environmental And Occupational Health Keywords: SARS-CoV-2; COVID-19; temporary disability; cumulative incidence; healthcare workers; National Network of Epidemiological Surveillance; Spain
Online: 15 May 2023 (07:49:18 CEST)
Healthcare workers (HCW) have been the professional category most exposed to SARS-CoV-2. The pandemic’s impact on HCW was analyzed in terms of COVID-19-related temporary disability (TD) between February 15 2020 and May 1 2021. TDs in HCW for COVID-19 infection or quarantine were described. TD quarantine/infection ratios and TDs per 100,000 affiliated HCW were compared with the cumulative incidence (CI) of COVID-19 cases notified to the National Network of Epidemiological Surveillance. TDs rates by economic activity and occupation were computed. A total of 429,127 TDs were recorded, 36,6% for infection. Three-quarters (76%) were women. The median TD quarantine/infection ratio was 2.5 (Interquartile range [IQR] 1.5-3.9). TDs rates in HCW were always above the CI except for the last two months of the fourth wave. Hospital activities accounted for 84% of TDs and showed the highest TD rate for infection (8,279/100,000). The highest TDs rates were registered among Nursing assistants, Nursing professionals and Physicians: 7,426, 6,925 and 5,508/100,000, respectively. The results demonstrate the high impact of COVID-19 on HCW in Spain and it’s inequalities. They also confirm that TDs represent a complementary source of information for epidemiological and public health surveillance and could provide an early warning of new emerging infections.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202009.0572.v1
Subject: Medicine And Pharmacology, Other Keywords: randomized controlled clinical trials; mathematical model; binary system; statistical analysis; epidemiological model; junk science; reductionist treatments; failure of medicine
Online: 24 September 2020 (08:13:15 CEST)
Modern medicine adopted four presumptions when it evolved from ancient experienced-based mind-body medicine. To understand its failure in finding cures for chronic diseases, we examined four presumptions, and found that statistical population of health properties does not exist for most research purposes, mathematical models are misused to model intensive properties, synthetic drugs are inherently more dangerous than nature-made medicines under their respective application conditions, and reductionist treatments are inferior and inherently dangerous. We found that clinical trials are valid only for research where treatment effect is much stronger than the total effects of all interfering or co-causal factors or errors introduced by misused mathematical models can be tolerated. In all other situations, clinical trials introduce excessive errors and fail to detect treatment effects, or produce biased, incorrect or wrong results. We further found that chronic diseases are manifestation of small departures in multiple process attributes in distinctive personal biological pathways networks, that modern medicine lacks required accuracy for accurately characterizing chronic diseases, and that reductionist treatments are good at controlling symptoms and safe for short term uses. For all stated reasons, as long as modern medicine continues relying on the flawed presumptions, it can never find predictable cures for chronic diseases. By implication, predictable cures to chronic diseases are adjustments to lifestyle, dietary, emotional, and environmental factors to slowly correct departures in process attributes responsible for chronic diseases.
REVIEW | doi:10.20944/preprints202302.0074.v3
Subject: Biology And Life Sciences, Immunology And Microbiology Keywords: Lumpy skin disease virus; lumpy skin disease; epidemiological footprint and multi-country outbreak; transboundary spread and disease resurgence; diagnosis and vaccines
Online: 13 February 2023 (14:44:26 CET)
The lumpy skin disease virus (LSDV) is an animal virus and a member of the Poxviridae family, which causes lumpy skin disease (LSD) in livestock animals like cows and buffaloes. LSD is an important transboundary disease of economic importance that was first discovered in 1929 in Zambia. LSDV has been prevalent in African countries, where several outbreaks have been reported previously. However, the virus has spread rapidly across the Middle East in the past two decades, reaching Russia and, recently, the Asian subcontinent. With the unprecedented cluster outbreaks reported across Asian countries, LSDV is certainly undergoing an epidemiological shift and expanding its geographical footprint globally. The recent LSD outbreaks have gained attention from global regulatory authorities and raised serious concerns among epidemiologists and veterinary researchers. Although there is no dearth of knowledge about LSDV, the disease lacks networked global surveillance and management, consequently making the current statistics deficient, fragmented, and unreliable. Hence, recurrent LSD outbreaks seriously threaten the global livestock industry. This review provides recent insights into LSDV by augmenting latest literature associated with its epidemiology, pathogenesis, transmission, currently-available intervention strategies, and economic implications on the dairy industries. The review also critically examines the changing epidemiological footprint of LSD and speculates on the possible reasons contributing to the ongoing multi-country LSD outbreak.
Subject: Medicine And Pharmacology, Pathology And Pathobiology Keywords: SARS-CoV-2; COVID-19; public health intervention; disease severity; personal survival strategy; randomized control trials; epidemiological model; junk science; mind and body; reductionist
Online: 24 August 2020 (03:11:34 CEST)
To predict how the COVID-19 pandemic progresses, we developed a systematic method for predicting disease outcomes. In the method, we evaluate how personal disease outcomes are mainly affected by viral concentration and exposure time and four defense mechanisms: human innate immunity/host response, acquired immune response, inflammation resolution and micro circulation, and the available space in the thorax cage. By considering how pandemic measures affect viral exposure and those mechanisms, we found many pandemic measures are misused or abused to deliver long-term adverse impacts. We noted that lifestyles have been changed as a result of movement restriction measures. By using the method, we found that altered lifestyles are predicted to raise infection rate, disability and death risks in the future. We show that a person can use personal, environmental, emotional factors to reduce infection rate and death risk. To prove the validity of this finding, we extensively examined medical research models, holistic and reductionist models, epidemiological models, disease risk factors, etc, and found that population methods are unfit for studying holistic health, statistical population does not exist in most clinical trials, mathematical models were misused for studying disease properties for a population, mathematical equations for modeling personal diseases are beyond human ability to solve, statistical models are misused, population-derived treatments are inherently dangerous to patients, vaccines have limited benefits due to unique lung structure and rapid RNA mutation, and immune system damage is caused by fast viral replication rate. We found that altering biological properties to improve the defense mechanisms could prevent a super majority of deaths and prevent the virus from reaching a point to damage the immune system. For vulnerable persons, such measure is a viable strategy for surviving from the pandemic. As a whole, holistic personalized medicine is more powerful than population-based reductionist treatment by one to several orders of magnitudes. We urge people do their parts to force the medical establishment to abandon population treatment models that are responsible for failure of medicine and dissemination of misleading and factually wrong information on the effectiveness of medical treatments.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202101.0198.v1
Subject: Biology And Life Sciences, Virology Keywords: epidemiological history of HCV-2; HCV-2 subtypes; evolutionary demography of HCV-2; phylodynamics of HCV-2 in Italy and Albania; HCV-2 Re estimation
Online: 11 January 2021 (13:10:30 CET)
Newly characterising 245 Italian and Albanian HCV-2 NS5B sequences collected between 2001 and 2016 was used to reconstruct the origin and dispersion pathways of HCV-2c. The tree of a subset of these sequences aligned with 247 publicly available sequences was reconstructed in spatio-temporal scale using the Bayesian approach, and the effective replication number (Re) was estimated using the birth-death model. Our findings show that HCV-2c was the most prevalent subtype in Italy and Albania, and that GT2 originated in Guinea Bissau in the XVI century and spread to Europe in the XX century. The HCV-2c subtype had two internal nodes respectively dating back to the 1930s and 1950s having as most probable locations Ghana and Italy, respectively. Phylodynamic analysis revealed an exponential increase in the effective number of infections and Re in both Italy between the 1950s and 1980s, and Albania between the 1990s and the early 2000s. It seems very likely that HCV-2c reached Italy from Africa at the time of the second Italian colonisation (1936-1941), but did not reach Albania until the period of dramatic migration to Italy in the 1990s.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202210.0135.v1
Subject: Medicine And Pharmacology, Epidemiology And Infectious Diseases Keywords: 25-hydroxyvitamin D; 25(OH)D; 1,25(OH)2D; immunity; pandemic; SARS-CoV-2; logic; cost–benefit; ivermectin; randomized-controlled trial; RCT; epidemiological studies; vitamin D
Online: 11 October 2022 (03:43:10 CEST)
With the advent of COVID19, the attitude of health authorities around the world, led mainly by the West, demanded a level of proof as evidence for cheap, non-patented remedies while promoting expensive, patented, and untested remedies by using emergency use authorization and special provisions afforded to the status of a pandemic emergency. Western science has neither a tested nor a valid historical basis of a logical system that informs to authenticate scientific practices. Here we use a logical heuristic derived from ancient Buddhist logic, which is consistent with the conduct of modern science. We applied the heuristic to show that enough evidence was available for using cost-effective early therapies such as vitamin D supplementation as a public health measure during the first half of 2020. Strong supporting evidence has since accumulated. Apart from political and financial decisions incompatible with science and other conflicts of interest, a critical barrier to evaluating and approving early therapies appears to be the fallacy that the randomized controlled trial (RCT) is the superior proof method in medical hypotheses, including those for nutrients. Logically, no reason exists why properly designed retrospective, ecological, and naturalistic studies with adequate sample sizes and applied appropriate statistical methods would not be as valid as RCTs, especially when elucidating a causative factor instead of treatment. That assertion is particularly true for nutrient deficiencies, interventions, and other cost-effective therapies. Leading health authorities’ failure or refusal to consider other study types (because of either poor logic or vested interest) probably contributed to the spread of misinformation, symptomatic disease, complications, and deaths from COVID19. Partial immunity derived from vaccines and the later development of more contagious variants—and thus a sense of acceptance that SARS-CoV-2 had progressed from a pandemic to an endemic—shows the hollowness of the initial promotions and mandates of vaccines as a cure. Adequate knowledge was available in 2020 to advise that SARS-CoV-2 will continue to mutate, with variants emerging a few times per year, making the vaccine less effective. Emerging evidence confirms that natural immunity better protects against new variants than vaccination against the spike protein. Had vitamin D been adopted as part of the public health measure through a broader supplementation program in 2020 or even today (through sun exposure or as a prophylactic or adjunct therapy early on), the viral spread and symptomatic disease may have been suppressed, with minimal lockdowns and quarantine, and economic harm. The pandemic could have been halted with a significantly reduced need for hospitalization, complications, and deaths, potentially saving millions of lives.