India, the world’s most populous country, is the world's third-largest emitter of greenhouse gases (GHGs). Despite employing several energy sources, it still relies heavily on coal, its primary energy source. Given India’s swiftly rising energy demand, this challenges meeting emission reduction targets. India has significantly increased investments in renewables like solar and hydrogen in recent years. While commendable, these initiatives alone cannot meet the country's expanding energy demands. In the short term, India must rely on both domestic and imported fossil fuels, with natural gas being the most environmentally friendly option. In this context, this paper attempts to forecast energy consumption, natural gas production, and consumption in India till 2050 using both univariate and multivariate forecasting methods. For multivariate forecasting, we have assumed two alternative possibilities for GDP growth: the business-as-usual and the high-growth scenarios. Each of our forecasts indicates a notable shortfall in the projected production of natural gas compared to the expected demand, implying our results are robust. Our model predicts that nearly 30-50 percent of India’s natural gas consumption will be met by imports, mainly in the form of LNG. Based on these findings, this paper recommends that Indian government policies emphasize increasing domestic natural gas production, importing LNG, and expanding renewable energy resources.

Power systems have been going through a barrage of transformations due to the recent developments in the field, such as deregulation and restructuring of the electric power supply chain, the proliferation of distributed generation (DG), and advancements in information and communications technologies. These have significantly impacted the approach to the planning, design, and operation of active distribution networks or systems. Due to this constant change, the system has become more complex to plan, maintain, and control. In this paper, the benefits, and challenges of active distribution systems relative to traditional passive and active distribution systems are evaluated and investigated while the management and operational characteristics of demand-side resources in Active Distribution Systems (ADS) are studied. In a typical ADS, there exist several vulnerabilities and threats that eventually pose a challenge in the control and automation of substations. These vulnerabilities and threats are reviewed, and potential mitigation measures are suggested. Also in this paper, the communication technologies, and their implementation in terms of control and automation capabilities in active distribution networks are also studied. From this work, it is concluded that communication technologies play an integral role in the realization of a more active distribution networks and that the internet of energy (IoE) is a major player in ADS in the reduction of faults due to human error, fast responses, and improving the stability of power supply. Cyber threats are also and will still be a continuous challenge in smart metering technologies and in substation automation systems (SAS) which will require frequent evaluation and mitigation measures so as not to prevent the power supply system from collapsing.

The purpose of the evaluation of the Peruvian energy generation system is to project the electricity generation and demand until the year 2050. To achieve this, three alternative scenarios have been defined and analyzed using the LEAP (Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning) software. The scenarios are as follows: the first one, Business-as-Usual scenario, based on normal trends according to historical data and referencing projections made by Peruvian state entities; the second one is focused on Energy Efficiency, the highlighted characteristic is taking into consideration the efficient conditions in transmission and distribution of electric energy; and the third one, centered on Geothermal Energy, focused on the development of this type of energy source and prioritizing it. The primary purpose of this analysis is to identity advantages and disadvantages inherent in each scenario in order to get the best of each one. In this way, the intention is to propose solutions based on Peru’s national reality or possible uses of the country’s energy potential to supply its energy demand. Currently, Peru’s energy demand relies on fossil fuels, hydraulic, and thermal energy. However, there is the possibility of transforming this system into a sustainable one, by strengthening existing and growing energy sources such as solar and wind energy, and new technologies for hydraulic and thermal energy, in addition to considering geothermal energy as the main energy source in the third scenario. The new system mentioned satisfactorily indicate that the CO2 equivalent emissions decrease significantly in the third scenario, with a 15.8% reduction compared to the first scenario and a 9.7% reduction in comparison to the second. On the other hand, the second scenario shows a 5.6% decrease in CO2 emissions compared to the first, resulting from improvements in technology and energy efficiency without requiring significant modifications or considerable investments, as in the third scenario.

Space and water heating for residential and commercial buildings amount to a third of the European Union’s total final energy consumption. Approximately 75% of the primary energy is still produced by burning fossil fuels, leading to high greenhouse gas emissions in the heating sector. Therefore, policymakers increasingly strive to trigger investments in sustainable and low-emission heating systems. This study forms part of the “Roll-out of Deep Geothermal Energy in North-West-Europe”-project and aims at quantifying the spatial heat demand distribution in the Interreg North-West-Europe region. An open-source geographic information system and selected Python packages for advanced geospatial processing, analysis, and visualization are utilized to constrain the maps. These were combined, streamlined, and optimized within the open-source Python package PyHeatDemand. Based on national and regional heat demand input data, three maps are developed to better constrain heat demand at a high spatial resolution of 100*100m2 for the residential and commercial sectors, and for both together (in total). The developed methodology cannot only be applied to transnational heat demand mapping but also on various scales ranging from city district level to states and countries. In addition, the workflow is highly flexible working with raster data, vector data, and tabular data. Results reveal a total heat demand of the Interreg North-West-Europe region of about 1,700TWh. The spatial distribution of the heat demand follows specific patterns, where heat demand peaks are usually in metropolitan regions like for the city of Paris (1,400MWh/ha), the city of Brussels (1,300MWh/ha), the London metropolitan area (520 MWh/ha), and the Rhine-Ruhr region (500 MWh/ha). The developed maps are compared with two international projects, Hotmaps and Heat Roadmap Europe’s Pan European Thermal Atlas. The average total heat demand difference from values obtained in this study to Hotmaps and Heat Roadmap Europe is 24 MWh/ha and 84 MWh/ha, respectively. It is assumed that the implementation of real consumption data is an improvement in spatial predictability. The heat demand maps are therefore predestined to provide a conceptual first overview for decision-makers and market investors. The developed methods will further allow for anticipated mandatory municipal heat demand analyses.

Abstract: With the continuous integration of various energy systems and the reform of energy trading marketization, the traditional power demand response can no longer meet the needs of multi-energy coupling. For the joint response problem of multi-energy, this paper proposes a comprehensive demand response optimization incentive model considering the user response characteristics, with the complete energy service providers and multiple users as the participants of the comprehensive demand response, to solve the response strategy for the optimal goal of all parties. The implementation architecture of integrated demand response and the electrothermal energy hub model is introduced first. Secondly, the integrated demand response collaborative optimization strategy of the integrated energy service providers and users is established, and the existence and uniqueness of the optimal solution are proved. Finally, the example analysis demonstrates that the proposed strategy can reduce the integrated energy service providers' response cost and user dissatisfaction under multiple scenarios.

The selectin of a demand forecasting method is critical for companies aiming to avoid manufacturing overproduction or shortages in pursuit of sustainable development. Various qualitative and quantitative criteria with different weights must be considered during the evaluation of a forecasting method. The qualitative criteria and criteria weights are usually assessed in linguistic terms. Aggregating these various criteria and linguistic weights for evaluating and selecting demand forecasting methods in sustainable manufacturing is a major challenge. This paper proposes an extension of fuzzy Elimination and Choice Translating Reality (ELECTRE) I to resolve this problem. In the proposed method, fuzzy weighted ratings are defuzzified with the signed distance to develop a crisp ELECTRE I model. Moreover, an extension to ELECTRE I is developed by suggesting an extended modified discordance matrix and a closeness coefficient for ranking alternatives. The proposed extension can overcome the problem of information loss which can lead to incorrect ranking result when using the Hadamard product to combine concordance and modified discordance matrices. A comparison is conducted to show the advantage of the proposed extension. Finally, a numerical example is used to demonstrate the feasibility of the proposed method; furthermore, a numerical comparison is made to display the advantage of the proposed method.

PM-Gati-Shakti Initiative, integration of ministries, including railways, ports, waterways, logistic infrastructure, mass transport, airports, and roads. Aimed at enhancing connectivity and bolstering the competitiveness of Indian businesses, the initiative focuses on six pivotal pillars known as "Connectivity for Productivity": comprehensiveness, prioritization, optimization, synchronization, analytical, and dynamic. In this study, we explore the application of these pillars to address the problem of "Maximum Demand Forecasting in Delhi." Electricity forecasting plays a very significant role in the power grid as it is required to maintain a balance between supply and load demand at all times, to provide a quality electricity supply, for Financial planning, generation reserve, and many more. Forecasting helps not only in Production Planning but also in Scheduling like Import / Export which is very often in India and mostly required by the rural areas and North Eastern Regions of India. As Electrical Forecasting includes many factors which cannot be detected by the models out there, We use Classical Forecasting Techniques to extract the seasonal patterns from the daily data of Maximum Demand for the Union Territory Delhi. This research contributes to the power supply industry by helping to reduce the occurrence of disasters such as blackouts, power cuts, and increased tariffs imposed by regulatory commissions. The forecasting techniques can also help in reducing OD and UD of Power for different regions. We use the Data provided by a department from the Ministry of Power and use different forecast models including Seasonal forecasts for daily data.

Global models have been developed to tackle the challenge of forecasting sets of series that are related or share similarities, but not for heterogeneous datasets. Various methods of partitioning by relatedness have been introduced to enhance the similarities of the set, resulting in improved forecasting accuracy but often at the cost of a reduced sample size, which could be harmful. To shed light on how the relatedness between series impacts the effectiveness of global models in real-world demand forecasting problems we perform an extensive empirical study using the M5 competition dataset. We examined cross-learning scenarios driven by the product hierarchy commonly employed in retail planning, which allow global models to capture interdependencies across products and regions more effectively. Our findings show that global models outperform state-of-the-art local benchmarks by a considerable margin, indicating that they are not inherently more limited than local models and can handle unrelated time series data effectively. The accuracy of data partitioning approaches increases, as the size of the data pools and the models' complexity decrease. However, there is a trade-off between data availability and data relatedness. Smaller data pools lead to increased similarity among time series, making it easier to capture cross-product and cross-region dependencies, but this comes at the cost of a reduced sample, which may not be beneficial. Finally, it's worth noting that the successful implementation of global models for heterogeneous datasets can significantly impact forecasting practice.

Recent improvements within the fields of high-throughput screening and 3D tissue culture have provided the possibility of developing in vitro micro-tissue models that can be used to study diseases and screen potential new therapies. This paper reports a proof of concept study on the use of microvalve-based bioprinting to create laminar MSC-chondrocyte co-cultures as an in vitro model of autologous chondrocyte implantation (ACI), an established cellular therapy for osteoarthritis. Microvalve-based bioprinting uses microvalves to deposit cells suspended in a liquid in a consistent and repeatable manner. In this case MSCs and chondrocytes have been sequentially deposited into an insert based transwell system in order to create a laminar co-culture, with variations in the ratios of the cell types used to investigate the potential for MSCs to stimulate improved repair. Histological and indirect immunofluorescence staining revealed the formation of dense tissue structures within the chondrocyte and MSC-chondrocyte cell co-cultures, alongside the establishment of a proliferative region at the base of the tissue. No stimulatory or inhibitory effect in terms of ECM production was observed through the introduction of MSCs, although the potential for an immunomodulatory benefit remains. This proof-of-concept study therefore provides a novel method to enable the scalable production of therapeutically relevant micro-tissue models that can be used for in vitro research to optimise ACI procedures.

Peer-to-peer (P2P) energy trading could help address grid management challenges in a decentralizing electricity system, as well as providing other social and environmental benefits. Many existing and proposed trading schemes are enabled by blockchain, a distributed ledger technology (DLT) relying on cryptographic proof of ownership rather than human intermediaries to establish energy transactions. This study used an online survey experiment (n=2064) to investigate how consumer demand for blockchain-enabled peer-to-peer energy trading schemes in the United Kingdom varies depending on how the consumer proposition is designed and communicated. The analysis provides some evidence of a preference for schemes offering to meet a higher proportion of participants’ energy needs, and for those operating at the city/region (as compared to national or neighbourhood) level. People were more likely to say they would participate when the scheme was framed as being run by their local council, followed by an energy supplier, community energy organization, and social media company. Anonymity was the most valued DLT characteristic and mentioning blockchain’s association with Bitcoin led to a substantial decrease in intended uptake. We highlight a range of important questions and implications suggested by these findings for the introduction and operation of P2P trading schemes.

A numerical approach for generating a limited number of water demand scenarios and estimating their occurrence probabilities in a Water Distribution Network (WDN) is proposed. This approach makes use of the demand scaling laws in order to consider the natural variability and spatial correlation of nodal consumptions. The scaling laws are employed to determine the statistics of nodal consumption as a function of the number of users and the main statistical features of the unitary user's demand. Besides, consumption at each node is considered to follow a Gamma probability distribution. A high number of groups of cross-correlated demands, i.e., scenarios, for the entire network were generated using Latin Hypercube Sampling (LHS) and the numerical procedure proposed by Iman and Conover. The Kantorovich distance is used to reduce the number of scenarios and estimate their corresponding probabilities, while keeping the statistical information on nodal consumptions. By hydraulic simulation, the whole number of generated demand scenarios was used to obtain a corresponding number of pressure scenarios on which the same reduction procedure was applied. The probabilities of the reduced scenarios of pressure were compared with the corresponding probabilities of demand.

Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) is a technique developed to measure possible environmental impacts during the manufacture and use of a given product or service. Additive Manufacturing (AM) has proven to be suitable in several industries, especially wire and arc additive manufacturing (WAAM), offering many advantages such as delivery time and reduction in terms of material waste, energy consumption and equivalent CO₂ emissions (CO₂e). This study aimed to develop a methodology to evaluate environmental indicators during the life cycle assessment, from gate-to-gate, in the production of two low-alloy carbon steel metal parts (flanges) using ER-90 wire and allowed identifying the main stages that most influence environmental indicators. The total energy consumption in the production of flanges 1 and 2 were, respectively, 10,239.0 MJ, 12,754.0 MJ and the total carbon footprint, respectively, 714.1 kgCO₂e kg^-1 and 749.3 kgCO₂e kg^-1.

Electricity demand prediction is vital for energy production management and proper exploitation of the present resources. Recently, several novel machine learning (ML) models have been employed for electricity demand prediction to estimate the future prospects of the energy requirements. The main objective of this study is to review the various ML models applied for electricity demand prediction. Through a novel search and taxonomy, the most relevant original research articles in the field are identified and further classified according to the ML modeling technique, perdition type, and the application area. A comprehensive review of the literature identifies the major ML models, their applications and a discussion on the evaluation of their performance. This paper further makes a discussion on the trend and the performance of the ML models. As the result, this research reports an outstanding rise in the accuracy, robustness, precision and the generalization ability of the prediction models using the hybrid and ensemble ML algorithms.

This study purposes the use of plug-in electric vehicles for demand side management (DSM) considering uncertainties in demand as well as uncertainties due to mobility of PEV to mitigate peak demand. The solution also seeks to reduce electric cost in addition to reducing the effects of greenhouse gases. In recent years DSM using distributed storage system such as battery energy management system (BESS) and plugged-in electric vehicles (PEV) have become very prevalent with most implementations resorting to deterministic load forecast. These methods do not consider the potential growth in demand making their solutions less robust. In this study we propose a real-time density demand forecast and stochastic optimization for robust operation of PEV for a building. This method accounts for demand uncertainties in addition to uncertainties in mobile energy storage as found in PEV, making the resulting solution robust as compared to the deterministic case. A case study on a real site in South Korea is used for verification and testing. The proposed study is verified and tested against existing algorithms. The result verifies the effectiveness of the proposed approach

Building energy consumption plays an essential role in urban sustainability. The prediction of the energy demand is also of particular importance for developing smart cities and urban planning. Machine learning has recently contributed to the advancement of methods and technologies to predict demand and consumption for building energy systems. This paper presents a state of the art of machine learning models and evaluates the performance of these models. Through a systematic review and a comprehensive taxonomy, the advances of machine learning are carefully investigated and promising models are introduced.

Knowledge-intensive business services (KIBS) are professional services that create new added value by creating, accumulating, and disseminating new knowledge. When it comes to conducting business involving new technology, KIBS play the roles of innovator, user, and producer of new technology that has led to technological innovation. This study aimed to determine the role of KIBS as a tool for innovation in a country’s economic system. Specifically, the degree and role of their impact on the Korean economy were analyzed and compared for the entire KIBS sector, T-KIBS (a new technology-based professional service), P-KIBS (a traditional professional service), and every subsector. For this purpose, the demand-inducement model, supply inducement model, and interlinkage effects method were applied using the 2019 input-output table published in 2022. The analysis showed that the indirect production inducement effect of the entire KIBS industry on other industries was 0.800 KRW, the indirect added value inducement effect was 0.330 KRW, and the supply disruption effect was 1.144 KRW. For T-KIBS, the indirect production inducement effect was 0.687 KRW, the indirect added value inducement effect was 0.272 KRW, and the supply disruption effect was 0.730 KRW. For P-KIBS, the indirect production inducement effect was 1.472 KRW, the indirect added value inducement effect was 0.646 KRW, and the supply disruption effect was 2.657 KRW. Finally, regarding the economic ripple effect of the KIBS subsector, legal and management support services and advertisements corresponding to P-KIBS showed higher figures than the T-KIBS subsectors in all sectors, including production inducement, the added value inducement effect, and the supply disruption effect. These results revealed that in the South Korean economic system, KIBS contribute to production and value addition across all industrial sectors. It is apparent that the absence of supply significantly disrupts other industries. Furthermore, production inducement effects are evenly distributed among all the KIBS subsectors in the secondary and tertiary sectors, while the value-added effects have a greater impact on the tertiary sector. In terms of the supply shortage effects, the secondary sector experiences a more significant impact. This underscores the crucial role of KIBS in sustaining and enhancing overall economic activity in South Korea. This study is significant in that it not only investigated KIBS as an industry group using the advantages provided by industry linkage analysis but also examined and compared detailed subsectors, thereby elaborately evaluating the influence relationship between KIBS and other industries. Therefore, the results presented in this study are expected to be useful for fostering the KIBS industrial sector and establishing economic innovation policies using KIBS.

The transition of the energy system to renewable sources means the cheap energy storage in fossil fuels must be replaced by other options. A large part of the demand for useful energy is heat and cold, often produced from electric energy by a resistance heater, compression heat pump or cooler. The question is then to store the initial electric energy by electric energy storage (EES) or the useful energy by thermal energy storage (TES). In a desktop study both options were compared, by the choice made in existing applications, and also generally analyzing current technology data. For the latter, cost, round-trip efficiencies, life cycles and life time of EES, specifically for batteries, and of TES, specifically for hot and cold water, ice and other PCM were collected. Applications studied are heating and cooling in buildings and in industry. Application-typical conversion efficiencies were also collected and taken into account. The results show that in many existing installations TES, incl. by PCM, is already preferred, and that TES is advantageous in most investigated applications economically, in addition to technical advantages. Thus, TES has a large potential in the transition of the energy system to stabilize the electricity grid by demand side management.

Artificial Intelligence models are increasingly used in manufacturing to inform decision-making. Responsible decision-making requires accurate forecasts and an understanding of the models’ behavior. Furthermore, the insights into models’ rationale can be enriched with domain knowledge. This research builds explanations considering feature rankings for a particular forecast, enriching them with media news entries, datasets’ metadata, and entries from the Google Knowledge Graph. We compare two approaches (embeddings-based and semantic-based) on a real-world use case regarding demand forecasting.

Electricity demand forecasting has been a real challenge for power system scheduling in the different levels of the energy sectors. Various computational intelligence techniques and methodologies have been employed in the electricity market for load forecasting; although, scant evidence is available about the feasibility of each of these methods considering the type of data and other potential factors. This work introduces several scientific, technical rationale behind intelligent forecasting methods, based on the work of previous researchers in the field of energy. The fundamental benefits and main drawbacks of the aforementioned methods are discussed in order to depict the efficiency of each approach in various situations. In the end, a proposed hybrid strategy is represented.

This study examines the DCMA concerning the future risk of the water security status. We considered three risk factors: population growth, economic growth, and natural water supply demand differences. In the risk analysis part, we consulted with experts from several sectors including academia, Non-Governmental Organization (NGOs), and industry, to predict that the probability of future water stresses in high, medium, and low scenarios are 0.73, 0.24, and 0.03, respectively. In the decision analysis part, we adopted two Multiple Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) approaches that include Multiple Attribute Value Theory (MAVT) and Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) methods to evaluate the best alternative decision to alleviate future water stresses in the DCMA. The sensitivity analysis demonstrates the best option closely connects to the weighting scheme of the criteria considered in the framework. This study provides a valuable risk and decision analysis framework to analyze the water security status associated with the future water supply and demand gap decrease caused by three risk factors: population growth, climate change, and natural water supply.

Real data obtained from ship in operation are processed and analyzed in this paper. The intention was to provide software which would predict ship’s fuel consumption in some future time instant. It is showed that it is possible to develop such software based on numeric fitting of known data. In order to check how well the prediction of future fuel consumption is, we used only the first half of data for obtaining prediction curve. The second part of data was used to compare different prediction curves goodness. Hence, the presented research used actually a “real future data” and forecasted future data, which are used to numerically evaluate goodness of prediction. The research is of interest for companies logistics, to provide adequate fuel for fleet when and where actually needed. It is concluded that there are several prediction functions which satisfy used statistical quality measures.

In this study, the efficiency of an anaerobic treatment system for wastewater from a South African poultry slaughterhouse was evaluated using a lab-scale static granular bed reactor (SGBR). The down-flow SGBR (2 L) was operated continuously for 138 days under mesophilic conditions (35-37 ˚C), at hydraulic retention times (HRTs) ranging from 24 to 96 h and average organic loading rates (OLRs) of 0.78 to 5.74 g COD/L.day. The SGBR achieved an average chemical oxygen demand (COD) removal efficiency of 80% and the maximum COD removal achieved was 95%, at an HRT of 24 h and average OLR of 5.74 g COD/L.day. The optimization of the SGBR, with regard to a suitable HRT and OLR, was determined using response surface methodology (RSM). The optimal SGBR performance with regard to the maximum COD removal efficiency was predicted for an OLR of 12.49 g COD/L.day and a HRT of 24 h, resulting in a 95.5% COD removal efficiency. The model R2 of 0.9638 indicated that the model is a good fit and is suitable to predict the COD removal efficiency for the SGBR.

Based on the Expected Utility Theory and Regret Theory, the Extended Regret Theory (ERT) is proposed in this paper to study the optimal pricing strategy of retailers in e-commerce environment. Taking the diversity of sales channels and the uncertainty of consumers in e-commerce environment into consideration, author of the paper designs an extended regret utility function which comprehensively considers both pessimistic and optimistic attitudes of decision makers in retailing industry to describe their regret-avoidance behavior. According to the sensitivity analysis, it is found that the optimal retail price decreases as the consumer price sensitivity coefficient increases, yet does not show variation with changes of the consumers pessimism degree. Moreover, the optimal retail price(s) obtained under EUT, ERT and combination of EUT and ERT represent the same.

This study presents application of demand response strategy in a standalone wind-solar-battery hybrid energy system (HES). Inputs for the designed HES are wind speed, solar radiation, temperature and load demand which is variable with time. In this study, hourly values of meteorological data and hourly load demand are considered in one year. An improved gravitational search algorithm (IGSA) is used to optimize the configuration of the standalone wind-solar-battery hybrid power system. The optimal objectives of the system are cost of the system in life cycle, the loss of power supply probability（LPSP）and the energy excess percentage（EXC）.The effect of demand response on economic benefit and energy storage allocation of the standalone wind-solar-battery system is studied. The obtained optimal configuration of the proposed HES can provide minimal energy cost with excellent performance and reduced waste and unmet load.

The purpose of this study is nutrient resources recovery by achieving the optimal chemical oxygen demand (COD) and carbon to nitrogen ratio (C/N) in co-composting wastewater treatment plant sludge with Municipal Solid Wastes (MSW). In this effort, the co-composting has been conducted in form of a case study in the northern region of Iran. In this research, 192 tests were carried out on four series of samples examined in terms of waste to sludge ratio, different aeration period, the percent of porous materials and the moisture content. This study was carried out at a temperature of 50 °C for a 15 day period by application of the in-vessel system and shows that the best ratio for waste to sludge is 2:1, while the 8 hour period is the best aeration period. The porous material which can be added to the composting process is limited to 15% in weight. In other words, any more or less amount of this material will adversely impact the process. Moreover, this research suggests that the sludge dewatering is not required in such processes. In Addition, the efficiency of both COD and C/N reductions equals to about 40%.

It is difficult to capture the real-time online measurement data for biochemical oxygen demand (BOD) in wastewater treatment processes. An optimized extreme learning machine (ELM) based on an improved cuckoo search algorithm (ICS) is proposed in this paper for the design of soft BOD measurement model. In ICS-ELM, the input weights matrices of the extreme learning machine (ELM) and the threshold of the hidden layer are encoded as the cuckoo's nest locations. The best input weights matrices and threshold are obtained by using the strong global search ability of improved cuckoo search (ICS) algorithm. The optimal results can be used to improve the precision of forecasting based on less number of neurons of the hidden layer in ELM. Simulation results show that the soft sensor model has good real-time performance, high prediction accuracy and stronger generalization performance for BOD measurement of the effluent quality compared to other modeling methods such as back propagation (BP) network in most cases.

This paper uses the numerical results of surveys sent to Huelva’s (Andalusia, Spain) households to determine the degree of knowledge they have about the urban water cycle, needs, values, and attitudes regarding water in an intermediary city with low water stress. In previous research, we achieved three different households’ clusters. The first one grouped households with high knowledge of the integral water cycle and a positive attitude to smart devices at home. The second cluster described households with low knowledge of the integral water cycle and high sensitivity to price. The third one showed average knowledge and predisposition to have a closer relationship with the water company. This paper continues with this research line, applying Classification and Regression Trees (CART) to determine which hierarchy of variables/factors/ independent components obtained from the surveys are the decisive ones to predict the range of household water consumption in Huelva. Positive attitudes towards improved cleaning habits for personal or household purposes are the highest hierarchy component to predict the water consumption range. Second in the hierarchy, the variable Knowledge Global Score about the integral urban water cycle, associated with water literacy, also contributes to predicting the water consumption range. Together with the three clusters obtained previously, these results will allow us to design water demand management strategies (WDM) fit for purpose that enable Huelva’s households to use water more efficiently.

To satisfy the interests of multiple agents and those of comprehensive indicators such as peak-to-valley differences and load fluctuations occurring on the network side, this paper presents a flexible load demand-side response optimization method that considers the benefits of peak-to-valley smoothing. First, load aggregation modelling of air conditioning and electric vehicles was conducted, and the complementarity of the power consumption behaviour of different types of flexible loads was used to improve the responsiveness of the load aggregator. Second, considering demand-side responses and taking into account the interests of both supply and demand, the load fluctuation and peak-to-valley difference on the network side are reduced, and a flexible load double-layer optimization model incorporating the peak-to-valley smoothing benefit is established. Finally, the effectiveness of the proposed optimization model is verified by using the KKT condition and the big M method to evaluate this two-layer optimization problem as a single-layer optimization problem. Comparative examples demonstrate that the proposed two-layer optimization method can improve the revenue of the distribution network operators and the load aggregators by using the complementary nature of the load response characteristics of electric vehicles and air conditioners. Moreover, the proposed method can effectively reduce the load peak-to-valley difference and load fluctuation of the distribution network by introducing the peak-to-valley smoothing benefit model.

Integrating photovoltaic (PV) systems plays a pivotal role in the global shift toward renewable energy, offering significant environmental benefits. In many instances, utility companies pay for both energy and peak demand. PV systems can effectively reduce energy consumption during their operational periods, while, their contribution during peak hours, particularly in the early morning and late evening, is often limited. To address this issue, battery storage systems are utilized for storing energy during off-peak hours and releasing it during peak times. However, finding the optimal size of PV-battery systems remains a challenge. This study proposes a novel statistical model to optimize PV-battery system sizing for enhanced peak demand reduction. The model aims to flatten 95% of peak demand days up to a certain demand threshold, ensuring consistent energy supply and financial benefit for utility companies. A straightforward and effective search methodology is employed to determine the optimal system sizes. Additionally, the model effectiveness is rigorously tested through a modified Monte Carlo simulation coupled with time series clustering to generate various scenarios to assess performance under different conditions. The results indicate that the optimal PV-battery system successfully flattens 95% of daily peak demand up to 2000 kW, yielding a financial benefit of $812,648 over 20 years.

To address the problems of wind abandonment in the regional integrated energy system (RIES), which occurs when cogeneration unit operates in a heat-determined electricity operation mode, and the low efficiency of the energy storage system in a low-temperature environment, we propose an optimal scheduling method for RIES based on fine energy storage and wind power dissipation. First, a fine energy storage model is established on the source side and the conditional value at risk(CvaR) theory is used to quantify the uncertainty of wind power; then a combined heat and power demand response mechanism is introduced on the load side to reduce the peak-to-valley difference between heat and power loads, and to promote the consumption of wind power. Finally, with the objective of minimizing the total cost of RIES optimal dispatch, the example is solved on the MATLAB platform. The simulation results show that compared with the traditional model, the proposed model is not only more adaptable to the low-temperature environment, but also can effectively improve the system economy and wind power consumption.

In addition to the traditional QoS metrics of delay, delay jitter, and packet loss probability (PLP), Quality of Experience (QoE) is now widely accepted as a numerical proxy for actual user experience. The literature has reported many mathematical mappings between QoE and QoS. These QoS parameters are measured by the network providers using sampling. There are some papers studying sampling errors in QoS measurements; however there is no account of propagation of these sampling errors to QoE evaluation. In this paper, we used industrially acquired measurements of PLP and jitter to evaluate the sampling errors and correlation in measurements. Focussing on Video-on-demand (VoD) applications, we use subjective testing and regression to map QoE metrics onto PLP and jitter. The resulting mathematical functions of QoE and theory of error propagation was used to evaluate the propagated error in QoE, and this error was represented as confidence interval. Using the guidelines of UK government for sampling, our results indicate that confidence intervals around estimated QoE in a busy hour can be between MOS=1 to MOS=5 at targeted operating point of QoS parameters. These results are a new perspective on QoE evaluation, and are of great significance to all organisations that need to estimate the QoE VoD applications precisely.

The effects of wastewater step-feeding on the performance of Horizontal Subsurface Flow Constructed Wetlands (HSF CWs) are numerically investigated. The purpose is to check if this alternative feeding technique increases the ability of HSF CWs to remove pollutants. Two methodologies are used: Initially, the Tanks-In-series (TIS) methodology, based on Finite Volume Method (FVM), is analyzed by using the volumetric degradation coefficient λ. In this case the operation of CW is similar with a series of Continuous Stirred-Tank Reactors (CSTR), under steady conditions. Then, the Step-Feeding (SF) procedure is presented, when the CW is operated like a Plug Flow Reactor (PFR). The results show that the SF procedure does not improve the performance of HSF CWs on removing Biochemical Oxygen Demand (BOD), operating under Mediterranean conditions.

It is crucial to forecast the water demand accurately for supplying water efficiently and stably in a water supply system. In particular, accurately forecasting short-term water demand helps in saving energy and reducing operating costs. With the introduction of the Smart Water Grid (SWG) in a water supply system, the amount of water consumption is obtained in real time through an advanced metering infrastructure (AMI) sensor, which can be used for forecasting the short-term water demand. The models widely used for water demand forecasting include the autoregressive integrated moving average, radial basis function-artificial neural network, quantitative multi-model predictor plus, and long short-term memory. However, there is a lack of research on assessing the performance of models and forecasting the short-term water demand by applying the data on the amount of water consumption by purpose and the pipe diameter of an end-use level of the SWG demonstration plant in each demand forecasting model. Therefore, in this study, the short-term water demand was forecasted for each model using the data collected from the AMI, and the performance of each model was assessed. The Smart Water Grid Research Group installed ultrasonic-wave-type AMI sensors in the block 112 located in YeongJong Island, Incheon, and the actual data used for operating the SWG demonstration plant were adopted. The performance of the model was assessed by using the residual, root mean square error (RMSE), normalized root mean square error (NRMSE), Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE), and Pearson correlation coefficient (PCC) as indices. The water demand forecast was slightly underestimated in models that employed the assessment results based on the RMSE and NRMSE. Furthermore, the forecasting accuracy was low for the NSE due to a large number of negative values; the correlation between the observed and forecasted values of the PCC was not high, and it was difficult to forecast the peak amount of water consumption. Therefore, as the short-term water demand forecasting models using only time and the amount of water consumption have limitations in reflecting the characteristics of consumers, a water supply system can be managed more precisely if other factors (weather, customer behavior, etc.) influencing the water demand are applied.

Background: Since 2000, vaccine coverage in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) has surpassed multiple milestones. Its contribution to global health, especially in low-middle-income countries is one of the achievements in global governance of modern medicine, averting 2-3 million child deaths every year. However, in Nigeria, vaccine-preventable-diseases still account for one in eight child deaths before their fifth-year birthday and remains one of the ten countries where 4.3 million children under five are without complete immunization. The reasons for declining childhood vaccine demand are unclear. Therefore, the goal of this contribution is to shed light on the reasons to set a foundation for future interventions. Methods: Four focus group discussions were conducted. The primary targets were mothers of children 0 – 12 months old in Nigeria. A simplified quota sampling approach was used to select mothers in four geographical clusters of Nigeria’s Federal Capital Territory. At least six mothers from each cluster were randomly included, giving a total of 24 participants. An interview guide developed from the 5C psychological antecedence model was used (assessing confidence, complacency, calculation, constraints, collective responsibility); two additional variables were included that had proved meaningful in previous work (religion and masculinity). The data were analyzed using meta-aggregation approach such as framework synthesis, which summarized data in a stepwise fashion. Results: The sample was generally relatively positive towards vaccination. Still, mothers reported low trust in vaccine safety and the healthcare system (confidence). Yet, they had great interest in seeking additional information during antenatal visits (calculation), difficulties in prioritizing vaccination over other equally competing priorities (constraints) and were aware that vaccination translates into overall community health and wellbeing (collective responsibility). They had a bias towards God as ultimate giver of good health (religion) and reported that their husbands played a dominant role in vaccination decision-making (masculinity). Mothers perceived their children vulnerable to disease outbreaks, which motivated them to get them vaccinated (complacency). Conclusion: The 5C model and the added determinants provided a useful qualitative tool for understanding mothers’ vaccination decision-making in low resources settings.

This study develops into the application of a combined MFC unit with chemical coagulation for total treatment of inert contaminants in complex substrates. Microbial Fuel Cell (MFC) technology converts chemical energy in the form of organic matter, into bioelectricity in an environmentally friendly and effi-cient manner, reducing carbon emissions and increasing bioenergy production. An evaluation of a la-boratory scale chemical coagulation using an aluminum and poly-based coagulant on how effective it can remove bulk impurities such as particulate COD and turbidity to obtain the purest and most cost-effectively treated wastewater using a jar test is being conducted in this current study. This study aims to find the most effective treatment technologies for wastewater recovery in breweries in order to achieve zero liquid effluent discharge (ZLED). The preliminary results showed that adding a modest amount of poly and a 50 % alum alone treatment improved COD, color, and turbidity reduction. The turbidity removal efficiency achieved after chemical coagulation treatment was 90.50 % and 59.36 % COD removal, demonstrating the benefits of adopting an alum/poly based technique. To determine ZLED, this study clearly advised a combined treatment technique, specifically the MFC-flocculator unit for efficient organics and inorganics removal.

Electricity demand forecasting has been a real challenge for power system scheduling in the different levels of the energy sectors. Various computational intelligence techniques and methodologies have been employed in the electricity market for load forecasting; although, scant evidence is available about the feasibility of each of these methods considering the type of data and other potential factors. This work introduces several scientific, technical rationale behind intelligent forecasting methods, based on the work of previous researchers in the field of energy. The fundamental benefits and main drawbacks of the aforementioned methods are discussed in order to depict the efficiency of each approach in various situations. In the end, a proposed hybrid strategy is represented.

Building electric energy is characterized by a significant increase of its uses (e.g. vehicle charging), a rapidly declining cost of all related data collection and a proliferation of smart grid concepts, including diverse and flexible electricity pricing schemes. Not surprisingly, an increased number of approaches have been proposed for its modeling and forecasting. In this work, we place our emphasis on three forecasting related issues. First, on the forecasting explainability, i.e. the ability to understand and explain to the user what shapes the forecast. To this extent we rely on concepts and approaches that are inherently explainable, such as the evolutionary approach of genetic programming (GP) and its associated symbolic expressions, as well as the so-called SHAP (SHapley Additive eXplanations) values, which is a well established model agnostic approach for explainability, especially in terms of feature importance. Second, we investigate the impact of the training timeframe on the forecasting accuracy; this is driven by the realization that a fast training would allow for faster deployment of forecasting in real life solutions. And third, we explore the concept of counterfactual analysis on actionable features, i.e. features that the user can really act upon and which therefore present an inherent advantage when it comes to decision support. We have found that SHAP values can provide important insights into the model explainability. As for GP models, we have found comparable and in some cases superior accuracy when compared to its neural-network and time-series counterparts but a rather questionable potential to produce crisp and insightful symbolic expressions, allowing a better insight into the model performance. We have also found, and report here on an important potential especially for practical, decision support, solutions of counterfactuals built on actionable features and short training timeframes.

Electricity demand forecasting plays a significant role in energy markets. Accurate prediction of electricity demand is the key factor to optimize power generation, consumption, saving energy resources, and determining the energy prices. However, integrating energy mix scenarios, including solar and wind power which are highly non-linear and seasonal, into an existing grid increases uncertainty in generation, adds the challenges for precise forecast. To tackle these challenges, state-of-the-art methods and algorithms have been implemented in literature. We have developed Artificial Intelligence (AI) based deep learning models that can effectively handle the information of long time-series data. Based on the pattern of dataset, four different scenarios were developed and two best scenarios were selected for prediction. Dozens of models were developed and tested in deep AI networks. In the first scenario (Scenario1), data for weekdays excluding holidays was taken and in the second scenario (Scenario2) all the data in the basket was taken. Remaining two scenarios, weekends and holidays were tested and neglected because of their high prediction error. To find the optimal configuration, models were trained and tested within a large space of alternatives called hyper-parameters. In this study, an Aritificial Neural Network (ANN) based Feed-forward Neural Network (FNN) showed the minimum prediction error for Scenario1 while a Recurrent Neural Network (RNN) based Gated Recurrent Network (GRU) showed the minimum prediction error for Scenario2. While comparing the accuracy, the lowest MAPE of 2.47% was obtained from FNN for Scenario1. When evaluating the same testing dataset (non-holidays) of Scenario2, the RNN-GRU model achieved the lowest MAPE of 2.71%. Therefore, we can conclude that grouping of weekdays as Senario1 prepared by excluding the holidays provides better forecasting accuracy compared to the single group approach used in Scenario2, where all the dataset is considered together. However, Scenario2 is equally important to predict the demand for weekends and holidays.

In this paper, we study the performance of various deep reinforcement learning algorithms to enhance the energy management system of a microgrid. We propose a novel microgrid model that consists of a wind turbine generator, an energy storage system, a set of thermostatically controlled loads, a set of price-responsive loads, and a connection to the main grid. The proposed energy management system is designed to coordinate among the different flexible sources by defining the priority resources, direct demand control signals, and electricity prices. Seven deep reinforcement learning algorithms were implemented and are empirically compared in this paper. The numerical results show that the deep reinforcement learning algorithms differ widely in their ability to converge to optimal policies. By adding an experience replay and a semi-deterministic training phase to the well-known asynchronous advantage actor-critic algorithm, we achieved the highest model performance as well as convergence to near-optimal policies.

Electrical energy demand increase does evolve rapidly due to several socioeconomic factors such as industrialization, population growth, urbanization and of course the evolution of modern technologies in this 4th industrial revolution era. Such rapid increase in energy demand introduces a huge challenge in power system. Such has paved way for network operators to seek for alternative energy resources other than the conventional fossil fuel system. Hence, the penetration of renewable energy into the electricity supply mix has evolved rapidly in the past three decades. However, the grid system has to be well planned ahead to accommodate such increase in energy demand in the long run. Transmission Network Expansion Planning (TNEP) is a well ordered and profitable expansion of power facilities that meets the expected electric energy demand with an allowable degree of reliability. This paper proposes a TNEP model that minimises the network reinforcements, operational costs and costs of renewable energy penetrations, while satisfying the increase in demand. The problem is formulated as a mixed integer linear programming (MILP) problem. The developed model has been tested in several IEEE test systems in multi-period scenarios. The paper also carried out a detailed derivation of the new non-negative variables in terms of the power flow magnitudes, the bus voltage phase angles and the lines’ phase angles for proper mixed integer variables’ decomposition techniques. Moreover, this paper tends to provide additional recommendation in terms of which particular year (within 20 years of planning period) can the network operators install new line(s), new corridor(s) and/or additional generation capacity to the respective existing power networks. Such is achieved by running incremental periods simulations from base year through the planning horizon. The results show the efficacy of the developed model in solving the TNEP problem with a reduced and acceptable computation time even for large power grid system.