One of the most crucial and economically beneficial tasks for energy customer is peak load curtailment. On account of the fast response of renewable energy resources (RERs) such as photovoltaic (PV) units and battery energy storage system (BESS), this task is closer to be efficiently implemented. Depends on the customer peak load demand and energy characteristics, the feasibility of this strategy may warry. When adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) is exploited for forecasting, it can provide many benefits to address the above-mentioned issues and facilitate its easy implementation, with short calculating time and re-trainability. This paper introduces a data driven forecasting method based on fuzzy logic for optimized peak load reduction. First, the amount of energy generated by PV is forecasted using ANFIS which conducts output trend, and then, the BESS capacity is calculated according to the forecasted results. The trend of the load power is then decomposed in Cartesian plane into two parts, left and right from load peak, searching for BESS capacity equal. Network switching sequence over consumption is provided by a fuzzy logic controller (FLC) with respect to BESS capacity and PV energy output. Finally, to prove the effectiveness of the proposed ANFIS-based peak shaving method, offline digital time-domain simulations have been performed on a real-life practical test micro grid system in MATLAB/Simulink environment and the results have been experimentally verified by testing on a practical micro grid system with real-life data obtained from smart meter and also, compared with several previously-reported methods.

A new model predictive control (MPC) algorithm is used to select optimal air conditioning setpoints for a commercial office building, considering variable electricity prices, weather, occupancy and lighting. This algorithm, Cost-Comfort Particle Swarm Optimization (CCPSO), is the first to combine a realistic, smooth representation of occupants’ willingness to pay for thermal comfort with a bottom-up, non-linear model of the building and air conditioning system under control. We find that using a quadratic preference function for temperature can yield solutions that are both more comfortable and lower-cost than previous work that used a ``brick wall'' preference function with no preference for further cooling within an allowed temperature band and infinite aversion to going outside the allowed band. Using historical pricing data for a summer month in Chicago, CCPSO provided a 3\% reduction in costs vs. a ``brick-wall'' MPC approach with similar comfort and 13\% reduction in costs vs. a standard night setback strategy. CCPSO also reduced peak-hours demand by 3\% vs. the ``brick-wall'' strategy and 15\% vs. standard night-setback. At the same time, the CCPSO strategy increased off-peak energy consumption by 15\% vs. the ``brick-wall'' strategy. This may be valuable for power systems integrating large amounts of renewable power, which can otherwise become uneconomic due to saturation of demand during off-peak hours.

This paper provides a new multi-function Blockchain Technology-enabled Pharmaceutical Supply Chain (BT-enabled PSC) mathematical cost model, including PSC costs, BT costs, and uncertain demand fluctuations. The purpose of this study is to find the most appropriate algorithm(s) with minimum prediction errors to predict the costs of the BT-enabled PSC model. This paper also aims to determine the importance and cost of each component of the multi-function model. To reach these goals, we combined four Supervised Learning algorithms (KNN, DT, SVM, and NB) with two Evolutionary Computation algorithms (HS and PSO) after data generation. Each component of the multi-function model has its own importance, and we applied the Feature Weighting approach to analyse their importance. Next, four performance metrics evaluated the multi-function model, and the Total Ranking Score determined predictive algorithms with high reliability. The results indicate the HS-NB and PSO-NB algorithms perform better than the other six algorithms in predicting the costs of the multi-function model with small errors. The findings also show that the Raw Materials cost has a stronger influence on the model than the other components. This study also introduces the components of the multi-function BT-enabled PSC model.

The mathematical modelling of reverse logistics inventory systems ignores that returned items may arrive out of sequence, i.e. with different number of remanufacturing times. Moreover, such modelling assumes that the retuned items may retain the same quality upon recovery regardless of how many times they have been previously remanufactured. This paper develops a new mathematical expression of the percentage of retuned items that can be remanufactured a finite number of times. The proposed expression is modelled as a function of the expected number of times an item can be remanufactured on its life cycle and the number of times an item can be technologically (or optimally) remanufactured based on its quality upon recovery. The model developed in this paper considers joint production and remanufacturing options. The return rate is a varying demand dependent rate, which is a decision variable with demand, product deterioration, manufacturing and remanufacturing rates being arbitrary functions of time. The model considers the initial inventory of returned items in the mathematical formulation, which enables decision makers to adjust all functions and input parameters for subsequent cycles. Illustrative examples indicate that dependent purchasing price of recovery items and the incorporation of remanufacturing investment cost significantly impact on the optimal remanufacturing policy.

Sources are classified into two depending upon the factor of reviving. These sources, which cannot be revived into their original shape once they are consumed, are considered as nonrenewable energy resources, i.e., (coal, fuel) Moreover, those energy resources which are revivable to the original condition even after being consumed are known as renewable energy resources, i.e., (wind, solar, hydel) Renewable energy is a cost-effective way to generate clean and green electrical energy Now a day’s majority of the countries are paying heed to energy generation from RES Pakistan is mostly relying on conventional energy resources which are mostly nonrenewable in nature coal, fuel is one of the major resources, and with the advent of time their prices are increasing on the other hand RES have great potential in the country with the deployment of RES greater reliability and an effective power system can be obtained In this thesis, a similar concept is being used and a hybrid power system is proposed which is composed of intermixing of renewable and nonrenewable sources The Source side is composed of solar, wind, fuel cells which will be used in an optimal manner to serve load The goal is to provide an economical, reliable, uninterruptable power supply. This is achieved by optimal controller (PI, PD, PID, FOPID) Optimization techniques are applied to the controllers to achieve the desired results. Advanced algorithms (Particle swarm optimization, Flower Pollination Algorithm) will be used to extract the desired output from the controller Detailed comparison in the form of tables and results will be provided, which will highlight the efficiency of the proposed system.

This research work describes an architecture for building a system that guide a user from a forecast generated by a machine learning model through a sequence of decision-making steps. The system is demonstrated in manufacturing demand forecasting use case and can be extended to other domains. In addition, the system provides means for knowledge acquisition by gathering data from users. Finally, it implements an active learning component and compares multiple strategies to recommend media news to the user. Such media news aims to provide additional context to demand forecasts and enhance judgment on decision-making.

Cold chain logistics of Agricultural Products demand forecasting can provide the scientific basis for the country to formulate logistics strategy, which further promotes the development of social economy and the improvement of living standards in China. In this paper, a new mathematical combined model is proposed to Agricultural Products Demand. Shandong, one of a China’s province, serves as the main producer and distributor of agricultural products. Based on the index system created from multiple related factors influencing cold chain logistics demand of agricultural products in Shandong, this paper employs principal component analysis to reduce the dimension of various indexes and predicts principal components with time series. Thereafter, multiple linear regression model and neural network model were constructed to forecast the cold chain logistics demand of agricultural products in Shandong, and their combined forecast models were compared. What's more, the paper provides insight for reference and decision-making concerning the development of cold chain logistics industry of agricultural products in Shandong province.

This paper reviews the design and component of two types of RWHS, namely roof harvesting system (RHS) and pond harvesting system (PHS). The performance in terms of quantity and quality of collected rainwater and energy consumption for RWHS with different capacities were evaluated, as well as the benefits and challenges particularly in environmental, economic and social aspects. Presently, RHS is more commonly applied but its effectiveness is limited by its small scale. The PHS is of larger scale and has greater potentials and effectiveness as an alternative water supply system. Results also indicate the many advantages of PHS especially in terms of economics, environmental aspects and volume of water harvested. While RHS may be suited to individual or existing buildings, PHS has greater potentials and should be applied in newly developed urban areas with wet equatorial climate.

Real data obtained from ship in operation are processed and analyzed in this paper. The intention was to provide software which would predict ship’s fuel consumption in some future time instant. It is showed that it is possible to develop such software based on numeric fitting of known data. In order to check how well the prediction of future fuel consumption is, we used only the first half of data for obtaining prediction curve. The second part of data was used to compare different prediction curves goodness. Hence, the presented research used actually a “real future data” and forecasted future data, which are used to numerically evaluate goodness of prediction. The research is of interest for companies logistics, to provide adequate fuel for fleet when and where actually needed. It is concluded that there are several prediction functions which satisfy used statistical quality measures.

In this study, the efficiency of an anaerobic treatment system for wastewater from a South African poultry slaughterhouse was evaluated using a lab-scale static granular bed reactor (SGBR). The down-flow SGBR (2 L) was operated continuously for 138 days under mesophilic conditions (35-37 ˚C), at hydraulic retention times (HRTs) ranging from 24 to 96 h and average organic loading rates (OLRs) of 0.78 to 5.74 g COD/L.day. The SGBR achieved an average chemical oxygen demand (COD) removal efficiency of 80% and the maximum COD removal achieved was 95%, at an HRT of 24 h and average OLR of 5.74 g COD/L.day. The optimization of the SGBR, with regard to a suitable HRT and OLR, was determined using response surface methodology (RSM). The optimal SGBR performance with regard to the maximum COD removal efficiency was predicted for an OLR of 12.49 g COD/L.day and a HRT of 24 h, resulting in a 95.5% COD removal efficiency. The model R2 of 0.9638 indicated that the model is a good fit and is suitable to predict the COD removal efficiency for the SGBR.

Based on the Expected Utility Theory and Regret Theory, the Extended Regret Theory (ERT) is proposed in this paper to study the optimal pricing strategy of retailers in e-commerce environment. Taking the diversity of sales channels and the uncertainty of consumers in e-commerce environment into consideration, author of the paper designs an extended regret utility function which comprehensively considers both pessimistic and optimistic attitudes of decision makers in retailing industry to describe their regret-avoidance behavior. According to the sensitivity analysis, it is found that the optimal retail price decreases as the consumer price sensitivity coefficient increases, yet does not show variation with changes of the consumers pessimism degree. Moreover, the optimal retail price(s) obtained under EUT, ERT and combination of EUT and ERT represent the same.

This study presents application of demand response strategy in a standalone wind-solar-battery hybrid energy system (HES). Inputs for the designed HES are wind speed, solar radiation, temperature and load demand which is variable with time. In this study, hourly values of meteorological data and hourly load demand are considered in one year. An improved gravitational search algorithm (IGSA) is used to optimize the configuration of the standalone wind-solar-battery hybrid power system. The optimal objectives of the system are cost of the system in life cycle, the loss of power supply probability（LPSP）and the energy excess percentage（EXC）.The effect of demand response on economic benefit and energy storage allocation of the standalone wind-solar-battery system is studied. The obtained optimal configuration of the proposed HES can provide minimal energy cost with excellent performance and reduced waste and unmet load.

Climate change is expected to influence cooling and heating energy demand of residential buildings and affect overall thermal comfort. Towards this end, the heating degree-day (HDD), the cooling degree-day (CDD) and the HDD+CDD were computed from an ensemble of 7 high-resolution bias-corrected simulations attained from EURO-CORDEX under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. These three indicators were analyzed for 1971-2000 (from E-OBS) and 2011-2040 and 2041-2070, under both RCPs. Results show that the overall spatial distribution of HDD trends for the 3 time-periods points out an increase of energy demand to heat internal environments in Portugal's northern-eastern regions, most significant under RCP8.5. It is projected an increase of CDD values for both scenarios; however, statistically significant linear trends were only found for 2041-2070 under RCP4.5. The need for cooling is almost negligible for the remaining periods, though linear trend values are still considerably higher for 2041-2070 under RCP8.5. By the end of 2070, higher amplitudes for all indicators are depicted for southern Algarve and Alentejo regions, mainly under RCP8.5. For 2041-2070 the Centre and Alentejo (North and Centre) regions present major positive differences for HDD(CDD) under RCP4.5(RCP8.5), within the 5 NUTS II regions predicting higher heating(cooling) requirements for some locations.

It is difficult to capture the real-time online measurement data for biochemical oxygen demand (BOD) in wastewater treatment processes. An optimized extreme learning machine (ELM) based on an improved cuckoo search algorithm (ICS) is proposed in this paper for the design of soft BOD measurement model. In ICS-ELM, the input weights matrices of the extreme learning machine (ELM) and the threshold of the hidden layer are encoded as the cuckoo's nest locations. The best input weights matrices and threshold are obtained by using the strong global search ability of improved cuckoo search (ICS) algorithm. The optimal results can be used to improve the precision of forecasting based on less number of neurons of the hidden layer in ELM. Simulation results show that the soft sensor model has good real-time performance, high prediction accuracy and stronger generalization performance for BOD measurement of the effluent quality compared to other modeling methods such as back propagation (BP) network in most cases.

To satisfy the interests of multiple agents and those of comprehensive indicators such as peak-to-valley differences and load fluctuations occurring on the network side, this paper presents a flexible load demand-side response optimization method that considers the benefits of peak-to-valley smoothing. First, load aggregation modelling of air conditioning and electric vehicles was conducted, and the complementarity of the power consumption behaviour of different types of flexible loads was used to improve the responsiveness of the load aggregator. Second, considering demand-side responses and taking into account the interests of both supply and demand, the load fluctuation and peak-to-valley difference on the network side are reduced, and a flexible load double-layer optimization model incorporating the peak-to-valley smoothing benefit is established. Finally, the effectiveness of the proposed optimization model is verified by using the KKT condition and the big M method to evaluate this two-layer optimization problem as a single-layer optimization problem. Comparative examples demonstrate that the proposed two-layer optimization method can improve the revenue of the distribution network operators and the load aggregators by using the complementary nature of the load response characteristics of electric vehicles and air conditioners. Moreover, the proposed method can effectively reduce the load peak-to-valley difference and load fluctuation of the distribution network by introducing the peak-to-valley smoothing benefit model.

Integrating photovoltaic (PV) systems plays a pivotal role in the global shift toward renewable energy, offering significant environmental benefits. In many instances, utility companies pay for both energy and peak demand. PV systems can effectively reduce energy consumption during their operational periods, while, their contribution during peak hours, particularly in the early morning and late evening, is often limited. To address this issue, battery storage systems are utilized for storing energy during off-peak hours and releasing it during peak times. However, finding the optimal size of PV-battery systems remains a challenge. This study proposes a novel statistical model to optimize PV-battery system sizing for enhanced peak demand reduction. The model aims to flatten 95% of peak demand days up to a certain demand threshold, ensuring consistent energy supply and financial benefit for utility companies. A straightforward and effective search methodology is employed to determine the optimal system sizes. Additionally, the model effectiveness is rigorously tested through a modified Monte Carlo simulation coupled with time series clustering to generate various scenarios to assess performance under different conditions. The results indicate that the optimal PV-battery system successfully flattens 95% of daily peak demand up to 2000 kW, yielding a financial benefit of $812,648 over 20 years.

To address the problems of wind abandonment in the regional integrated energy system (RIES), which occurs when cogeneration unit operates in a heat-determined electricity operation mode, and the low efficiency of the energy storage system in a low-temperature environment, we propose an optimal scheduling method for RIES based on fine energy storage and wind power dissipation. First, a fine energy storage model is established on the source side and the conditional value at risk(CvaR) theory is used to quantify the uncertainty of wind power; then a combined heat and power demand response mechanism is introduced on the load side to reduce the peak-to-valley difference between heat and power loads, and to promote the consumption of wind power. Finally, with the objective of minimizing the total cost of RIES optimal dispatch, the example is solved on the MATLAB platform. The simulation results show that compared with the traditional model, the proposed model is not only more adaptable to the low-temperature environment, but also can effectively improve the system economy and wind power consumption.

Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) is a technique developed to measure possible environmental impacts during the manufacture and use of a given product or service. Additive Manufacturing (AM) has proven to be suitable in several industries, especially wire and arc additive manufacturing (WAAM), offering many advantages such as delivery time and reduction in terms of material waste, energy consumption and equivalent CO₂ emissions (CO₂e). This study aimed to develop a methodology to evaluate environmental indicators during the life cycle assessment, from gate-to-gate, in the production of two low-alloy carbon steel metal parts (flanges) using ER-90 wire and allowed identifying the main stages that most influence environmental indicators. The total energy consumption in the production of flanges 1 and 2 were, respectively, 10,239.0 MJ, 12,754.0 MJ and the total carbon footprint, respectively, 714.1 kgCO₂e kg^-1 and 749.3 kgCO₂e kg^-1.

Power systems have been going through a barrage of transformations due to the recent developments in the field, such as deregulation and restructuring of the electric power supply chain, the proliferation of distributed generation (DG), and advancements in information and communications technologies. These have significantly impacted the approach to the planning, design, and operation of active distribution networks or systems. Due to this constant change, the system has become more complex to plan, maintain, and control. In this paper, the benefits, and challenges of active distribution systems relative to traditional passive and active distribution systems are evaluated and investigated while the management and operational characteristics of demand-side resources in Active Distribution Systems (ADS) are studied. In a typical ADS, there exist several vulnerabilities and threats that eventually pose a challenge in the control and automation of substations. These vulnerabilities and threats are reviewed, and potential mitigation measures are suggested. Also in this paper, the communication technologies, and their implementation in terms of control and automation capabilities in active distribution networks are also studied. From this work, it is concluded that communication technologies play an integral role in the realization of a more active distribution networks and that the internet of energy (IoE) is a major player in ADS in the reduction of faults due to human error, fast responses, and improving the stability of power supply. Cyber threats are also and will still be a continuous challenge in smart metering technologies and in substation automation systems (SAS) which will require frequent evaluation and mitigation measures so as not to prevent the power supply system from collapsing.

Demand response flexible loads can provide fast regulation and ancillary services as reserve capacity in power systems. This paper proposes a joint optimization dispatch control strategy for source-load system with stochastic renewable power injection and flexible thermostatically controlled loads (TCLs) and plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs). Specifically, the optimization model is characterized by a chance constraint look-ahead programming to maximal the social welfare of both units and load agents. By solving the chance constraint optimization with sample average approximation (SAA) method, the optimal power scheduling for units and TCL/PEV agents can be obtained. Secondly, two demand response control algorithms for TCLs and PEVs are proposed respectively based on the aggregate control models of the load agents. The TCLs are controlled by its temperature setpoints and PEVs are controlled by its charging power such that the DR control objective can be fulfilled. The effectiveness of the proposed dispatch and control algorithm has been demonstrated by the simulation studies on a modified IEEE 39 bus system with a wind farm, a photovoltaic power station, two TCL agents and two PEV agents.

In addition to the traditional QoS metrics of delay, delay jitter, and packet loss probability (PLP), Quality of Experience (QoE) is now widely accepted as a numerical proxy for actual user experience. The literature has reported many mathematical mappings between QoE and QoS. These QoS parameters are measured by the network providers using sampling. There are some papers studying sampling errors in QoS measurements; however there is no account of propagation of these sampling errors to QoE evaluation. In this paper, we used industrially acquired measurements of PLP and jitter to evaluate the sampling errors and correlation in measurements. Focussing on Video-on-demand (VoD) applications, we use subjective testing and regression to map QoE metrics onto PLP and jitter. The resulting mathematical functions of QoE and theory of error propagation was used to evaluate the propagated error in QoE, and this error was represented as confidence interval. Using the guidelines of UK government for sampling, our results indicate that confidence intervals around estimated QoE in a busy hour can be between MOS=1 to MOS=5 at targeted operating point of QoS parameters. These results are a new perspective on QoE evaluation, and are of great significance to all organisations that need to estimate the QoE VoD applications precisely.

India, the world’s most populous country, is the world's third-largest emitter of greenhouse gases (GHGs). Despite employing several energy sources, it still relies heavily on coal, its primary energy source. Given India’s swiftly rising energy demand, this challenges meeting emission reduction targets. India has significantly increased investments in renewables like solar and hydrogen in recent years. While commendable, these initiatives alone cannot meet the country's expanding energy demands. In the short term, India must rely on both domestic and imported fossil fuels, with natural gas being the most environmentally friendly option. In this context, this paper attempts to forecast energy consumption, natural gas production, and consumption in India till 2050 using both univariate and multivariate forecasting methods. For multivariate forecasting, we have assumed two alternative possibilities for GDP growth: the business-as-usual and the high-growth scenarios. Each of our forecasts indicates a notable shortfall in the projected production of natural gas compared to the expected demand, implying our results are robust. Our model predicts that nearly 30-50 percent of India’s natural gas consumption will be met by imports, mainly in the form of LNG. Based on these findings, this paper recommends that Indian government policies emphasize increasing domestic natural gas production, importing LNG, and expanding renewable energy resources.

The effects of wastewater step-feeding on the performance of Horizontal Subsurface Flow Constructed Wetlands (HSF CWs) are numerically investigated. The purpose is to check if this alternative feeding technique increases the ability of HSF CWs to remove pollutants. Two methodologies are used: Initially, the Tanks-In-series (TIS) methodology, based on Finite Volume Method (FVM), is analyzed by using the volumetric degradation coefficient λ. In this case the operation of CW is similar with a series of Continuous Stirred-Tank Reactors (CSTR), under steady conditions. Then, the Step-Feeding (SF) procedure is presented, when the CW is operated like a Plug Flow Reactor (PFR). The results show that the SF procedure does not improve the performance of HSF CWs on removing Biochemical Oxygen Demand (BOD), operating under Mediterranean conditions.

The Smart Energy Research Lab (SERL) Observatory dataset described here comprises half-hourly and daily electricity and gas data, SERL survey data, Energy Performance Certificate (EPC) input data and 24 local hourly climate reanalysis variables from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) for over 13,000 households in Great Britain (GB). Participants were recruited in September 2019, September 2020 and January 2021 and their smart meter data are collected from up to one year prior to sign up. Data collection will continue until at least August 2022, and longer if funding allows. Survey data relating to the dwelling, appliances, household demographics and attitudes was collected at sign up. Data are linked at the household level and UK-based academic researchers can apply for access within a secure virtual environment for research projects in the public interest. This is a data descriptor paper describing how the data was collected, the variables available and the representativeness of the sample compared to national estimates. It is intended as a guide for researchers working with or considering using the SERL Observatory dataset, or simply looking to learn more about it.

It is crucial to forecast the water demand accurately for supplying water efficiently and stably in a water supply system. In particular, accurately forecasting short-term water demand helps in saving energy and reducing operating costs. With the introduction of the Smart Water Grid (SWG) in a water supply system, the amount of water consumption is obtained in real time through an advanced metering infrastructure (AMI) sensor, which can be used for forecasting the short-term water demand. The models widely used for water demand forecasting include the autoregressive integrated moving average, radial basis function-artificial neural network, quantitative multi-model predictor plus, and long short-term memory. However, there is a lack of research on assessing the performance of models and forecasting the short-term water demand by applying the data on the amount of water consumption by purpose and the pipe diameter of an end-use level of the SWG demonstration plant in each demand forecasting model. Therefore, in this study, the short-term water demand was forecasted for each model using the data collected from the AMI, and the performance of each model was assessed. The Smart Water Grid Research Group installed ultrasonic-wave-type AMI sensors in the block 112 located in YeongJong Island, Incheon, and the actual data used for operating the SWG demonstration plant were adopted. The performance of the model was assessed by using the residual, root mean square error (RMSE), normalized root mean square error (NRMSE), Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE), and Pearson correlation coefficient (PCC) as indices. The water demand forecast was slightly underestimated in models that employed the assessment results based on the RMSE and NRMSE. Furthermore, the forecasting accuracy was low for the NSE due to a large number of negative values; the correlation between the observed and forecasted values of the PCC was not high, and it was difficult to forecast the peak amount of water consumption. Therefore, as the short-term water demand forecasting models using only time and the amount of water consumption have limitations in reflecting the characteristics of consumers, a water supply system can be managed more precisely if other factors (weather, customer behavior, etc.) influencing the water demand are applied.

Electricity demand prediction is vital for energy production management and proper exploitation of the present resources. Recently, several novel machine learning (ML) models have been employed for electricity demand prediction to estimate the future prospects of the energy requirements. The main objective of this study is to review the various ML models applied for electricity demand prediction. Through a novel search and taxonomy, the most relevant original research articles in the field are identified and further classified according to the ML modeling technique, perdition type, and the application area. A comprehensive review of the literature identifies the major ML models, their applications and a discussion on the evaluation of their performance. This paper further makes a discussion on the trend and the performance of the ML models. As the result, this research reports an outstanding rise in the accuracy, robustness, precision and the generalization ability of the prediction models using the hybrid and ensemble ML algorithms.

This study examines the DCMA concerning the future risk of the water security status. We considered three risk factors: population growth, economic growth, and natural water supply demand differences. In the risk analysis part, we consulted with experts from several sectors including academia, Non-Governmental Organization (NGOs), and industry, to predict that the probability of future water stresses in high, medium, and low scenarios are 0.73, 0.24, and 0.03, respectively. In the decision analysis part, we adopted two Multiple Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) approaches that include Multiple Attribute Value Theory (MAVT) and Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) methods to evaluate the best alternative decision to alleviate future water stresses in the DCMA. The sensitivity analysis demonstrates the best option closely connects to the weighting scheme of the criteria considered in the framework. This study provides a valuable risk and decision analysis framework to analyze the water security status associated with the future water supply and demand gap decrease caused by three risk factors: population growth, climate change, and natural water supply.

Background: Since 2000, vaccine coverage in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) has surpassed multiple milestones. Its contribution to global health, especially in low-middle-income countries is one of the achievements in global governance of modern medicine, averting 2-3 million child deaths every year. However, in Nigeria, vaccine-preventable-diseases still account for one in eight child deaths before their fifth-year birthday and remains one of the ten countries where 4.3 million children under five are without complete immunization. The reasons for declining childhood vaccine demand are unclear. Therefore, the goal of this contribution is to shed light on the reasons to set a foundation for future interventions. Methods: Four focus group discussions were conducted. The primary targets were mothers of children 0 – 12 months old in Nigeria. A simplified quota sampling approach was used to select mothers in four geographical clusters of Nigeria’s Federal Capital Territory. At least six mothers from each cluster were randomly included, giving a total of 24 participants. An interview guide developed from the 5C psychological antecedence model was used (assessing confidence, complacency, calculation, constraints, collective responsibility); two additional variables were included that had proved meaningful in previous work (religion and masculinity). The data were analyzed using meta-aggregation approach such as framework synthesis, which summarized data in a stepwise fashion. Results: The sample was generally relatively positive towards vaccination. Still, mothers reported low trust in vaccine safety and the healthcare system (confidence). Yet, they had great interest in seeking additional information during antenatal visits (calculation), difficulties in prioritizing vaccination over other equally competing priorities (constraints) and were aware that vaccination translates into overall community health and wellbeing (collective responsibility). They had a bias towards God as ultimate giver of good health (religion) and reported that their husbands played a dominant role in vaccination decision-making (masculinity). Mothers perceived their children vulnerable to disease outbreaks, which motivated them to get them vaccinated (complacency). Conclusion: The 5C model and the added determinants provided a useful qualitative tool for understanding mothers’ vaccination decision-making in low resources settings.

This study develops into the application of a combined MFC unit with chemical coagulation for total treatment of inert contaminants in complex substrates. Microbial Fuel Cell (MFC) technology converts chemical energy in the form of organic matter, into bioelectricity in an environmentally friendly and effi-cient manner, reducing carbon emissions and increasing bioenergy production. An evaluation of a la-boratory scale chemical coagulation using an aluminum and poly-based coagulant on how effective it can remove bulk impurities such as particulate COD and turbidity to obtain the purest and most cost-effectively treated wastewater using a jar test is being conducted in this current study. This study aims to find the most effective treatment technologies for wastewater recovery in breweries in order to achieve zero liquid effluent discharge (ZLED). The preliminary results showed that adding a modest amount of poly and a 50 % alum alone treatment improved COD, color, and turbidity reduction. The turbidity removal efficiency achieved after chemical coagulation treatment was 90.50 % and 59.36 % COD removal, demonstrating the benefits of adopting an alum/poly based technique. To determine ZLED, this study clearly advised a combined treatment technique, specifically the MFC-flocculator unit for efficient organics and inorganics removal.

Abstract: Safety issues related to the electrification of more electric aircraft (MEA) need to be addressed because of the increasing complexity of aircraft electrical power systems and the growing number of safety-critical sub-systems that need to be powered. Managing the energy storage systems and the flexibility in the load-side plays an important role in preserving the system’s safety when facing an energy shortage. This paper presents a system-level centralized operation management strategy based on model predictive control (MPC) for MEA to schedule battery systems and exploit flexibility in the demand-side while satisfying time-varying operational requirements. The proposed online control strategy aims to maintain energy storage (ES) and prolong the battery life cycle, while minimizing load shedding, with fewer switching activities to improve devices lifetime and to avoid unnecessary transients. Using a mixed-integer linear programming (MILP) formulation, different objective functions are proposed to realize the control targets, with soft constraints improving the robustness of the model. Besides, an evaluation framework is proposed to analyze the effects of various objective functions and the prediction horizon on system performance, which provides the designers and users of MEA and other complex systems with new insights into operation management problem formulation.

The purpose of this study is nutrient resources recovery by achieving the optimal chemical oxygen demand (COD) and carbon to nitrogen ratio (C/N) in co-composting wastewater treatment plant sludge with Municipal Solid Wastes (MSW). In this effort, the co-composting has been conducted in form of a case study in the northern region of Iran. In this research, 192 tests were carried out on four series of samples examined in terms of waste to sludge ratio, different aeration period, the percent of porous materials and the moisture content. This study was carried out at a temperature of 50 °C for a 15 day period by application of the in-vessel system and shows that the best ratio for waste to sludge is 2:1, while the 8 hour period is the best aeration period. The porous material which can be added to the composting process is limited to 15% in weight. In other words, any more or less amount of this material will adversely impact the process. Moreover, this research suggests that the sludge dewatering is not required in such processes. In Addition, the efficiency of both COD and C/N reductions equals to about 40%.

Electricity demand forecasting has been a real challenge for power system scheduling in the different levels of the energy sectors. Various computational intelligence techniques and methodologies have been employed in the electricity market for load forecasting; although, scant evidence is available about the feasibility of each of these methods considering the type of data and other potential factors. This work introduces several scientific, technical rationale behind intelligent forecasting methods, based on the work of previous researchers in the field of energy. The fundamental benefits and main drawbacks of the aforementioned methods are discussed in order to depict the efficiency of each approach in various situations. In the end, a proposed hybrid strategy is represented.

Building electric energy is characterized by a significant increase of its uses (e.g. vehicle charging), a rapidly declining cost of all related data collection and a proliferation of smart grid concepts, including diverse and flexible electricity pricing schemes. Not surprisingly, an increased number of approaches have been proposed for its modeling and forecasting. In this work, we place our emphasis on three forecasting related issues. First, on the forecasting explainability, i.e. the ability to understand and explain to the user what shapes the forecast. To this extent we rely on concepts and approaches that are inherently explainable, such as the evolutionary approach of genetic programming (GP) and its associated symbolic expressions, as well as the so-called SHAP (SHapley Additive eXplanations) values, which is a well established model agnostic approach for explainability, especially in terms of feature importance. Second, we investigate the impact of the training timeframe on the forecasting accuracy; this is driven by the realization that a fast training would allow for faster deployment of forecasting in real life solutions. And third, we explore the concept of counterfactual analysis on actionable features, i.e. features that the user can really act upon and which therefore present an inherent advantage when it comes to decision support. We have found that SHAP values can provide important insights into the model explainability. As for GP models, we have found comparable and in some cases superior accuracy when compared to its neural-network and time-series counterparts but a rather questionable potential to produce crisp and insightful symbolic expressions, allowing a better insight into the model performance. We have also found, and report here on an important potential especially for practical, decision support, solutions of counterfactuals built on actionable features and short training timeframes.

Electricity demand forecasting plays a significant role in energy markets. Accurate prediction of electricity demand is the key factor to optimize power generation, consumption, saving energy resources, and determining the energy prices. However, integrating energy mix scenarios, including solar and wind power which are highly non-linear and seasonal, into an existing grid increases uncertainty in generation, adds the challenges for precise forecast. To tackle these challenges, state-of-the-art methods and algorithms have been implemented in literature. We have developed Artificial Intelligence (AI) based deep learning models that can effectively handle the information of long time-series data. Based on the pattern of dataset, four different scenarios were developed and two best scenarios were selected for prediction. Dozens of models were developed and tested in deep AI networks. In the first scenario (Scenario1), data for weekdays excluding holidays was taken and in the second scenario (Scenario2) all the data in the basket was taken. Remaining two scenarios, weekends and holidays were tested and neglected because of their high prediction error. To find the optimal configuration, models were trained and tested within a large space of alternatives called hyper-parameters. In this study, an Aritificial Neural Network (ANN) based Feed-forward Neural Network (FNN) showed the minimum prediction error for Scenario1 while a Recurrent Neural Network (RNN) based Gated Recurrent Network (GRU) showed the minimum prediction error for Scenario2. While comparing the accuracy, the lowest MAPE of 2.47% was obtained from FNN for Scenario1. When evaluating the same testing dataset (non-holidays) of Scenario2, the RNN-GRU model achieved the lowest MAPE of 2.71%. Therefore, we can conclude that grouping of weekdays as Senario1 prepared by excluding the holidays provides better forecasting accuracy compared to the single group approach used in Scenario2, where all the dataset is considered together. However, Scenario2 is equally important to predict the demand for weekends and holidays.

Building energy consumption plays an essential role in urban sustainability. The prediction of the energy demand is also of particular importance for developing smart cities and urban planning. Machine learning has recently contributed to the advancement of methods and technologies to predict demand and consumption for building energy systems. This paper presents a state of the art of machine learning models and evaluates the performance of these models. Through a systematic review and a comprehensive taxonomy, the advances of machine learning are carefully investigated and promising models are introduced.

In this paper, we study the performance of various deep reinforcement learning algorithms to enhance the energy management system of a microgrid. We propose a novel microgrid model that consists of a wind turbine generator, an energy storage system, a set of thermostatically controlled loads, a set of price-responsive loads, and a connection to the main grid. The proposed energy management system is designed to coordinate among the different flexible sources by defining the priority resources, direct demand control signals, and electricity prices. Seven deep reinforcement learning algorithms were implemented and are empirically compared in this paper. The numerical results show that the deep reinforcement learning algorithms differ widely in their ability to converge to optimal policies. By adding an experience replay and a semi-deterministic training phase to the well-known asynchronous advantage actor-critic algorithm, we achieved the highest model performance as well as convergence to near-optimal policies.

This paper uses the numerical results of surveys sent to Huelva’s (Andalusia, Spain) households to determine the degree of knowledge they have about the urban water cycle, needs, values, and attitudes regarding water in an intermediary city with low water stress. In previous research, we achieved three different households’ clusters. The first one grouped households with high knowledge of the integral water cycle and a positive attitude to smart devices at home. The second cluster described households with low knowledge of the integral water cycle and high sensitivity to price. The third one showed average knowledge and predisposition to have a closer relationship with the water company. This paper continues with this research line, applying Classification and Regression Trees (CART) to determine which hierarchy of variables/factors/ independent components obtained from the surveys are the decisive ones to predict the range of household water consumption in Huelva. Positive attitudes towards improved cleaning habits for personal or household purposes are the highest hierarchy component to predict the water consumption range. Second in the hierarchy, the variable Knowledge Global Score about the integral urban water cycle, associated with water literacy, also contributes to predicting the water consumption range. Together with the three clusters obtained previously, these results will allow us to design water demand management strategies (WDM) fit for purpose that enable Huelva’s households to use water more efficiently.

Electrical energy demand increase does evolve rapidly due to several socioeconomic factors such as industrialization, population growth, urbanization and of course the evolution of modern technologies in this 4th industrial revolution era. Such rapid increase in energy demand introduces a huge challenge in power system. Such has paved way for network operators to seek for alternative energy resources other than the conventional fossil fuel system. Hence, the penetration of renewable energy into the electricity supply mix has evolved rapidly in the past three decades. However, the grid system has to be well planned ahead to accommodate such increase in energy demand in the long run. Transmission Network Expansion Planning (TNEP) is a well ordered and profitable expansion of power facilities that meets the expected electric energy demand with an allowable degree of reliability. This paper proposes a TNEP model that minimises the network reinforcements, operational costs and costs of renewable energy penetrations, while satisfying the increase in demand. The problem is formulated as a mixed integer linear programming (MILP) problem. The developed model has been tested in several IEEE test systems in multi-period scenarios. The paper also carried out a detailed derivation of the new non-negative variables in terms of the power flow magnitudes, the bus voltage phase angles and the lines’ phase angles for proper mixed integer variables’ decomposition techniques. Moreover, this paper tends to provide additional recommendation in terms of which particular year (within 20 years of planning period) can the network operators install new line(s), new corridor(s) and/or additional generation capacity to the respective existing power networks. Such is achieved by running incremental periods simulations from base year through the planning horizon. The results show the efficacy of the developed model in solving the TNEP problem with a reduced and acceptable computation time even for large power grid system.

Smart, reliable, and connected multi-modal mobility has been a long-standing goal of transit services. This paper focuses on the smart, seamless, and multi-modal mobility service in the context of “Mobility as a Service” (MaaS). Intelligent mobility is the smarter, greener, and more efficient movement of passengers around the world. Increasingly, mobility is approached as a service. This study first conducts an extensive literature review on mobility behavior and demand pattern of MaaS end-users. It then extends the mechanism of supply chain, MaaS, synergy (i.e., vertical cooperation synergy, horizontal competition synergy), and coopetition to develop the multi-tier closed-loop intelligent mobility service supply chain network. This paper explains the intelligent mobility service supply chain network from following perspectives: (i) mobility service taxonomy of MaaS; (ii) aims of intelligent mobility service supply chain network; (iii) urban rail transit (URT)-centered alternatives for integrated multimodal journey planning, i.e. access + URT + egress, and both access and egress can be served by Mobility-On-Demand (MOD) transport; (iv) node member imperatives. From a synthesis of insights from the ‘during’ journey, this study puts forward the synergetic design of intelligent mobility service supply chain network, including: (i) multi-tier closed-loop structure; (ii) key nodes identification for the physical multimodal transport network in the supply chain; (iii) hybrid synergy mechanisms among the partners, i.e., synergy principle, temporal splitting approach for coopetition synergy; (iv) index systems and evaluation methods for synergy measurement. This study also contributes to the integrated multimodal journey planning. In concluding, the paper highlights the important implications of the proposed intelligent mobility service supply chain network for MaaS bundle design and adverse effects reduction, resulting from 1 + 1 > 2 synergy effects.