A new – syntropic – criterion obtained using the synergetic theory of information has been proposed for determining the start date for the cancellation of restrictive measures in the COVID-19 pandemic. Under this criterion, the restrictions should be lifted when the average number of new cases per day during a week becomes disproportionately smaller than at the peak of the pandemic. The article gives the derivation of this criterion, and its practical use is shown by the example of a number of EU countries. In this case, a comparison is made of the dates set by the syntropic criterion with the actual dates of the beginning of the lifting of restrictions.

Global pandemic COVID-19 is in stage 4 of widespread local transmission in Bangladesh- the country which did not have a noteworthy health policy and legislative structures to combat COVID-19 like a pandemic. Early strategic planning and groundwork for evolving and established challenges are crucial to assemble resources and react in an appropriate timely manner. This article, therefore, focuses on the public perception of comparative lockdown scenario analysis and how they may affect the sustainable development and the strategic management regime of COVID-19 pandemic in Bangladesh socioeconomically. Response from 159 respondents was collected via a purposive sampling survey method through a questionnaire, and 54 statements were collected for scenario analysis. Datasets were analyzed through a set of statistical techniques including Principal Component Analysis (PCA), hierarchical Cluster Analysis (CA), Pearson’s correlation matrix (PCM), Linear regression analysis (LRA), and psychometric characteristics were included in the Classical Test Theory (CTT) analysis. There were good associations among the lockdown scenarios and response strategies to be formulated. A strong significant positive relationship was observed between people who will start moving towards regular life and the formal and informal economic activities will be started in lockdown scenario 1(r=0.671, p<0.01). The scenario one describes how the death and infection rate will increase if Govt withdraw the partial lockdown before 40 to 50 days. Scenario 2 outlines people’s movement will enable low-level community transmission of COVID-19 with the infection and death rate will increase slowly (r=0.540, p<0.01). Moreover, there will be less supply of necessities of daily use with a price hike (r= 0.680, p<0.01). Scenario 3, full lock down will reduce the community transmission and death from COVID-19 (r=0.545, p<0.01). Moreover, along with the other problems gender discrimination and gender-based violence will increase rapidly (r=0.661, p<0.01). Form regression analysis, due to full lockdown, the formal and informal business, economy and education sector will be hampered severely (R=0.695), there was a strong association between the loss of livelihood and unemployment rate will increase due to business shutdown (p<0.01) and poor communities both in urban and rural areas will be affected severely (p<0.01).All these will further aggravate the humanitarian needs of the most vulnerable groups in the country in the coming months to be followed which needs to be dealt with proper response plans. It will undoubtedly affect the targets of global sustainable development goals (SDGs) of 2030 and all other development targets.

In recent years, farmers and policymakers have faced ample challenges and have struggled to support the sustainability of the agricultural sector. Sustainable agriculture encompasses multiple concepts, and its performance produces extensive debate about data requirements, appropriate indicators, evaluation methods, and tools. Under the European Union (EU) financed project FLINT (Farm Level Indicators for New Topics in policy evaluation), detailed data have been collected at the farm level to provide broader coverage of sustainability indicators on a wide range of relevant topics to facilitate the assessment of sustainability performance. The approach has been applied in a pilot network of representative farms at the EU level, considering the heterogeneity of the EU farming sector to provide data infrastructure with up to date information for sustainability indicators. This study aims to assess sustainability performance at the farm level in Greece. Representative and dominant agricultural systems, such as permanent crops, olive trees, arable crops, and livestock (sheep) farms, comprise the Greek sample. It uses the analytical hierarchy process (AHP) methodology and attempts to gain insights into the sustainability performance of agricultural systems. The outcome of the sustainability assessment reveals knowledge and develops support for strategic farm choices in order to support both farmers and policymakers towards more sustainable development plans. The results indicate that three typical Mediterranean farming systems, like permanent crops, olive trees, and extensive livestock systems (sheep farms), are more sustainable in contrast to intensive and arable crop farms.

Recent prolonged dry periods and lack of irrigation water have severely affected the productivity of coffee farms’ in the Central Highlands of Vietnam. This paper analyzes the efficiency of irrigation water use for Robusta coffee (Coffea canephora) in Lam Dong province, Highlands, Vietnam. A Cobb-Douglas production function was used to determine coffee productivity’s response to the application of irrigation water and other production factors using data collected from 194 farmers while the Technical Efficiency (TE) and Irrigation Water Use Efficiency (IWUE) were analyzed using a Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) model. The correlation of different factors to IWUE was determined using the Tobit model. The production function analysis using Cobb-Douglas shows that the volume of irrigation water, amount of working capital, labor and farm size significantly influence coffee productivity. It also shows that indigenous farmers are more efficient in utilizing irrigation water than the (mostly Kinh) migrant farmers. The Tobit result, on the other hand. indicates that farmers’ experience, education level, distance of farm to water source, security of access to water source, extension contact and credit access significantly affect IWUE. The study findings further suggest that mitigating water shortages in coffee farms require sub-regional and national policy support such as better access to credit and extension services, training, land management and household-level effort to improve farming practices, through the application of appropriate technologies and traditional knowledge.

We analyze real telematics information for a sample of drivers with usage-based insurance policies. We examine the statistical distribution of distance driven above the posted speed limit – which presents a strong positive asymmetry – using quantile regression models. We find that, at different percentile levels, the distance driven at speeds above the posted limit depends on total distance driven and, more generally, on such factors as the percentages of urban and nighttime driving and on the driver’s gender. However, the impact of these covariates differs according to the percentile level. We stress the importance of understanding telematics information, which should not be limited to simply characterizing average drivers, but can be useful for signaling dangerous driving by predicting quantiles associated with specific driver characteristics. We conclude that the risk of driving long distances above the speed limit is heterogeneous and, moreover, we show that prevention campaigns should target primarily male, non-urban drivers, especially if they present a high percentage of nighttime driving.

This paper evaluates the determinants of decision making in relation to the production of four crops (banana, cassava, potato and sweet potato). Understanding the division of labour and decision-making in crop management may lead to designing better interventions targeted at improving efficiency in smallholder agriculture. A household quantitative survey with heads of households involving 261 women and 144 men in Burundi and 184 women and 222 men in Rwanda was conducted in 2014. Most of the decisions and labour provision during production of both cash crops (potato and banana) and food crops (sweet potato and cassava) were done jointly by men and women in male-headed households. Higher values for ‘credit access’, ‘land size’ and ‘farming as the main occupation of the household head’ increased the frequency of joint decision-making in male-headed households. A decline in the amount of farm income reduced the participation of men as decision makers. A reduction in total household income and proximity to the market was correlated with joint decision making. Gender norms also contributed to the lower participation of women in both decision-making and labour provision in banana and potato cultivation. Although a large proportion of decisions were made jointly, women perceived that men participate more in decision-making processes within the household during the production of cash crops. Increased participation by women in decision-making will require an active and practical strategy which can encourage adjustments to existing traditional gender norms that recognise men as the main decision-makers at both the household and community levels.

Polarization in online social networks has gathered a significant amount of attention in the research community and in the public sphere due to stark disagreements with millions of participants in topics surrounding politics, climate, the economy and other areas where an agreement is required. There are multiple approaches to investigating the scenarios in which polarization occurs and given that polarization is not a new phenomenon but that its virality may be supported by the low cost and latency messaging offered by online social media platforms; an investigation into the intrinsic dynamics of online opinion evolution is presented for complete networks. Extending a model which utilizes the Binary Voter Model (BVM) to examine the effect of the degree of freedom for selecting contacts based upon homophily, simulations show that different opinions are reinforced for a period of time when users have a greater range of choice for association. The facility of discussion threads and groups formed upon common views further delays the rate in which a consensus can form between all members of the network. This can temporarily incubate members from interacting with those who can present an alternative opinion where a voter model would then proceed to produce a homogeneous opinion based upon pairwise interactions.

Polarization in online social networks has gathered a significant amount of attention in the research community and in the public sphere due to stark disagreements with millions of participants in topics surrounding politics, climate, the economy and other areas where an agreement is required. There are multiple approaches to investigating the scenarios in which polarization occurs and given that polarization is not a new phenomenon but that its virality may be supported by the low cost and latency messaging offered by online social media platforms; an investigation into the intrinsic dynamics of online opinion evolution is presented for complete networks. Extending a model which utilizes the Binary Voter Model (BVM) to examine the effect of the degree of freedom for selecting contacts based upon homophily, simulations show that different opinions are reinforced for a period of time when users have a greater range of choice for association. The facility of discussion threads and groups formed upon common views further delays the rate in which a consensus can form between all members of the network. This can temporarily incubate members from interacting with those who can present an alternative opinion where a voter model would then proceed to produce a homogeneous opinion based upon pairwise interactions.

Crop production is a major livelihood activity of smallholders in Ethiopia. However, it is often characterized by low performance. In an effort to improve crop production, a series of agricultural extension programs have been running in Ethiopia since the 1950s. Nevertheless, the performance of agriculture is still low. In this study, it is argued that the limited attention given to cropland allocation methodologies is one of the major causes of low performance of crop production and increased environmental degradation. This study used linear programming to examine the role and impacts of cropland allocation methods on performance of crop production. The data for this study was drawn from household survey of 75 randomly selected households combined with focus-grouped discussion, key informant interview, and secondary data. In the current conventional cropland allocation, households were not able to meet their household consumption. The average profitability of farms under current practice was found significantly below than estimated optimal level of profit that could be realized using linear programming. In addition, it uncovered that low performance of crop production (in terms of meeting household consumption demand and profitability) is the primary cause that limited the effort of households to participate in environmental and natural resource management. This study suggests the use of linear programming-based cropland allocation to enhance the profit performance of smallholder crop production, meeting household consumption requirement, and thereby promote sustainable utilization of natural and environmental resources.

The purpose of this paper is to evaluate the timing of innovative investment in technology product life cycles using a compound binomial option with management flexibility. Considering the business cycles changes in the macroeconomic will affect consumer purchasing power. The focus is how to evaluate the optimal investment strategy and the project value. It was applied to different product stages (three stages including production innovation, manufacture innovation, and operation innovation) and factored to different risks to build a technology innovation strategy model. An aim of this study is the options premium of the best strategy timing for each innovation stage. Its application of the compound binomial options for the manufacture innovation will only be considered after the execution of the production innovation. The same condition is applied to the operation innovation, which will only be considered after the execution of the manufacture innovation. Then, this paper constructs the dynamic investment sequential decision model, assesses the feasibility of an investment strategy, and makes a decision on the appropriate project value and options premium for each stage under the possible change of Gross Domestic Product (GDP). This paper investigates the product life cycle innovation investment topic by using the compound binomial options method and will provide a more flexible strategy decision compared with other trend forecast criteria.

This paper highlights the impact of financial inclusion on individuals’ borrowing and saving decisions in the United States and the United Arab Emirates. It does so, using data from the 2014 Global Financial Inclusion database, and an empirical strategy consisting of first testing the significance of the joint bivariate model over its binary conterparts using the Lagrange multiplier test, followed by a contrast between the fully-parametric and semi-parametric specifications of the saving and borrowing equations. Based on model performance measures, the semi-parametric bivariate probit specification is identified as a better framework for describing the two processes of saving and borrowing, with a correlation coefficient of 12.3%. Although no significant difference exists between UAE and US residents in borrowing behavior, we find that US residents are 31.4% more likely to save than their UAE counterparts. In addition, and in line with the Permanent Income Hypothesis, the results reveal the absence of an income based saving or borrowing gradient in the two countries. Conversely, we found the prevalence of a gender based saving (12.4%) and borrowing (13.8%) inequality in favor of the male gender. Furthermore, access to a bank account and a debit card, companies policy of direct wage and salary transfer, and government transfer programs with direct deposit options are all financial inclusion strategies that are found to significantly raise the likelihood of saving and borrowing. As such, companies with payroll practices based on cash or physical paycheck issuing, especially in the US, should revise such policy to create more financial inclusion, and thereby more saving potential which in turn would contribute to further borrowing, investment and growth of the national economy.

Motivated by the theoretical model of health insurance choice with Flexible Spending Accounts (FSAs) presented in Cardon 2012, this study investigates the determinants of optional coverage (SSP) and flexible spending accounts (FSA) enrollment, among the privately insured in post-affordable-care-act (ACA) USA. To this end, we rely on semi-parametric bi-variate probit methods, along with a pooled cross-section of the 2015-2016 National Health Interview Surveys. As predicted by the theoretical model, we find that SSP and FSA are complement health solutions with a positive correlation. Our results emphasize that the most important trigger factors influencing the joint probability of SSP and FSA adoption include not only insurance premium cost, but also age, education, marital status, number of work hours, region of residency, citizenship status, and annual health expenditure level. We find that controlling for these latter factors, health status is not significant especially for FSA adoption. In addition, despite the fact that the relative frequency of individuals with FSA rises with increasing levels of medical expenditure, ACA restrictions on FSA tax exclusion to an annual adjusted maximum of $2600 (in 2017 $s) seems to adversely burden individuals with greater medical expenditure, thereby reducing their likelihood of FSA enrollment in post-ACA USA. Understanding these factors is very crucial to US health care market's stakeholders, including insurance companies, firms looking to design their health insurance offerings, but also policy-makers interested in providing new tailored health solutions for reducing health risks.

Widespread poverty is the most serious threat and social problem that Bangladesh faces. Regional vulnerability to climate change threatens to escalate the magnitude of this poverty. It is essential that projections of poverty be made while bearing in mind the effects of climate change. The main purpose of this paper is to investigate the agrarian sub-national regional analysis of climate change vulnerability in Bangladesh under various climate change scenarios and its potential impact on poverty. This study is relevant to socio-economic research on climate change vulnerability and agriculture risk management and has the potential to contribute new insights to the complex interactions in household income and climate change risks to agricultural communities in Bangladesh and South Asia. The current study uses analysis of variance, cluster analysis, decomposition of variance and log-normal distribution to estimate the parameters of income variability that ascertain vulnerability levels and help us to understand the poverty levels that climate change could potentially incur. It is found that the income share in income sources revealed that income category shares across the various regions of Bangladesh are far from uniform. The variance decomposition of income showed that agricultural income in Mymensingh and Rangpur is the main cause of income difference. Moreover, large variance of agricultural income in the regions is induced by gross income from rice production. Additionally, constant reduction of rice yield due to climate change in Bangladesh is not such a severe problem for farmers, however, the extreme events like flood, flash flood, drought, sea level rise, and greenhouse gas emission based on RCPs could increase the poverty rates in Mymensingh, Rajshahi, Barisal, and Khulna regions that would be highly affected by unexpected yield loss due to extreme climatic events. Therefore, research and development of adaptation measures to climate change for regions where farmers are largely dependent on agricultural income is important.

Urban areas are centres of business and innovation. Freight transport is indispensable for the proper functioning of any modern urban society. Urban areas can’t function without an appropriate freight transport system, due to the need to replenish stocks of food and other goods in retail shops. The complexity of the decisions concerning implementation of measures to improve the movement of goods in the city requires tools designed to support this process. The purpose of this article is to introduce the possibility of applying the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) as well as the Decision Making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory Method (DEMATEL) in choosing a set of measures and in analysing in the field of distribution logistics, which will help to solve the delivery problems and streamline the cargo flows in Szczecin, in the context of sustainable development.

This paper investigates the effects of Inter-generational co-residence on health care market, and labor market outcomes, to see whether or not living under the same roof with at least one parent matters in health care market, and labor market behaviors in post-Affordable-Care Act (ACA) USA. The adopted analytical strategy involves not only looking at the gender differences in co-residence, and its effects on outcomes in the two markets, but also accounting for co-residence endogeneity following the recent literature. Unlike the recent literature that relies on instrumental variables methods, this study adopts a switching regression approach, defining inter-generational co-residence as an endogenous selection process using a binary probit equation, and modeled jointly with the extensive margins and intensive margins in the two markets. This novel approach results in a recursive trivariate probit model for each market, and estimated using penalized maximum likelihood methods. The results suggest that ACA by reorganizing the US health care market, seems to have reduced significantly disparities in health care access among males and females based on race, region of residence, place of birth, and citizenship. However not only do we observe significant differences in inter-generational co-residence status between males and females, we also find significant inequalities in the effects of co-residence on health care market, and labor market outcomes. In fact, co-residence is found to increase health care expenditure by 56.7% among females, while this figure increases to 74.2% among males. In addition co-residing individuals, while spending 69.7% more on health care annually are 1.22 times more likely to access health care, but 31% less likely to use health care intensively during the year. In the labor market, co-residence is found to reduce significantly hours of weekly labor supplied by 41% for females, and 55.6% for males. Furthermore co-residing individuals, while not significantly different in their likelihood of labor force participation, are 1.52 times less likely to work full time once they decide to participate, and also spend about 55.4% less time working in the labor market in post-ACA USA.

Given the Income enabling nature of education as stipulated by human capital theory, it can be postulated that “ceteris paribus”, households with formally educated heads experience less food insecurity and monetary poverty than those with uneducated heads. We test this claim in the case of Burkina Faso, using the 2014 National Survey on Households Living Conditions, along with semi-parametric modeling techniques. In its design the study uses households “willingness and ability” to spend annually on food consumption a per-capita amount above the food poverty line of 102,040 CFA Franc to characterize “household food security”, and households “unwillingness or inability” to spend above the overall poverty line of 153,530 CFA Franc to characterize “monetary poverty”. In addition, the study relies not only on single equation multivariate probit and logit specifications, but also on both fully parametric and semi-parametric bivariate probit representations of food insecurity and monetary poverty. The results show that relaxing the linearity and independence assumptions through joint semi-parametric bivariate modeling captures better the true effects of heads of households’ educational attainment on households' food insecurity and monetary poverty. In fact, compared to households headed by someone with no education, those headed by someone with a primary, secondary or higher education are respectively 19.8% , 49.7% and 118.9% less likely to experience food insecurity, and respectively 40.1%, 77.0% and 172.3% less likely to experience monetary poverty in Burkina Faso. In addition, the experience of food insecurity and monetary poverty are highly correlated at 92.7%, suggesting that educational policies that alleviate poverty in Burkina Faso should also impact positively food security in the country.

This paper focuses on evaluating airline service quality from the perspective of passengers view. Until now a lot of researches has performed in airline service quality evaluation in the world but a little research has been conducted in Iran, yet. In this research a framework for measuring airline service quality in Iran is proposed. After reviewing airline service quality criteria, SSQAI model was selected because of its comprehensiveness in covering airline service quality dimensions. SSQAI questionnaire items were redesigned to adopt with Iranian airlines requirements and environmental circumstances in the Iran's economic and cultural context. This study includes fuzzy decision-making theory, considering the possible fuzzy subjective judgment of the evaluators during airline service quality evaluation. Fuzzy TOPSIS have been applied for ranking airlines service quality performances. Three major Iranian airlines which have the most passenger transfer volumes in domestic and foreign flights, were chosen for evaluation in this research. Results demonstrated Mahan airline has got the best service quality performance rank in gaining passengers' satisfaction with delivery of high quality services to its passengers, among the three major Iranian airlines. IranAir and Aseman airlines placed in the second and third rank, respectively, according to passenger's evaluation.Statistical analysis have been used in analyzing passenger responses. Due to abnormality of data, Non-parametric tests were applied. To demonstrate airline ranks in every criterion separately, Friedman test was performed. Variance analysis and Tukey test were applied to study the influence of increasing in age and educational level of passengers' on degree of their satisfaction from airline's service quality. Results showed that age has not significant relation with passenger satisfaction of airlines, however increasing in educational level demonstrated a negative impact on passengers' satisfaction from airline's service quality.

The goal of the study was to assess the farmers’ acceptance of three sustainable production strategies, namely ‘Agro-forestry’, ‘Alternative protein source’ and ‘Prolonged maternal feeding’. Data on the acceptance of these strategies were collected by a survey of dairy farmers in six EU countries (AT, BE, DK, FI, IT, UK). An extended version of the Technology Acceptance Model (TAM) was applied by means of Structural Equation Modelling to testing various hypotheses on attitudes and intentions of dairy farmers towards these novel production strategies, as well as the influence of organic practices and collaborative behaviours along the supply chain. We found that the most preferred strategy - across all countries - was soy substitution by alternative protein sources. We also found that the intention to adopt a sustainable production strategy may derive from the influence of opinions (and behaviours) of relevant others, showing the role of interactions among farmers and other stakeholders in the adoption of innovations. Finally, the perceived usefulness of all investigated strategies is higher for organic farmers, while collaborative patterns reduce the impact of subjective norm on usefulness and overall acceptance. Our findings should encourage policy makers to consider the important role of supply chain management practices, including collaboration, to enhance the sustainability of dairy farming systems.

The development of small scale hydroelectric power plants in Norway is determined by natural conditions, policies, attitudes and property rights. The owner of the river is the central decision maker. It is he who decides whether he will develop the power plant himself, Whether he wants to enter into a contract with an external investor and let him develop the power plant, whether he will sell his property rights or postpone the decisions. All available choices will involve risk. In order for him to make the best choice he must find the certainty equivalent to each of the choices and choose the one with the highest certainty equivalent. This is the first time the utility theory of John von Neumann and Oskar Morgenstern has been applied to decision makers in the hydro power industry in Norway.

Automation surprises in aviation continue to be a significant safety concern and the community’s search for effective strategies to mitigate them are ongoing. The literature has offered two fundamentally divergent directions, based on different ideas about the nature of cognition and collaboration with automation. In this paper, we report the results of a field study that empirically compared and contrasted two models of automation surprises: a normative individual-cognition model and a sensemaking model based on distributed cognition. Our data prove a good fit for the sense-making model. This finding is relevant for aviation safety, since our understanding of the cognitive processes that govern the human interaction with automation drives what we need to do to reduce the frequency of automation-induced events.

We study a two-echelon supply chain made up of a supplier and a manufacturer, both of which can reduce their component/product carbon emissions. With the vertical technology spillovers, we explore the optimal decisions of centralized and decentralized supply chains with price dependent demand and propose coordination strategy for the decentralized supply chain. Considering the cost contraction effectiveness of the technology spillovers, the centralized and decentralized game theoretic models of a two-echelon supply chain are developed to investigate optimal decisions of pricing and carbon emissions reduction. Through a systematic comparison and numerical analysis, we show that the profits of both players and the entire supply chain improve with the effect of technology spillovers increasing. Carbon emissions reduction will be taken by various protective measures so that the supplier and the manufacturer who do not innovate can hardly share the results of innovating via the “free-riding” methods when the technology spillover is relatively small. We also propose a revenue-cost sharing contract through bargaining to enhance the performance of the decentralized supply chain.