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Article
Social Sciences
Safety Research

Mette Lykke Nielsen

,

Louise Yung Nielsen

,

Johnny Dyreborg

Abstract: Platform-mediated work (PMW) represents a highly unregulated and individualized segment of the labor market, with significant implications for psychosocial work environment and limited occupational health and safety (OHS) management efforts. The use of Algorithmic Management (AM) by digital platforms extensively directs and discipline remote workers in PMW, and may exacerbate risks. This study employs the affordance concept initially introduced into safety science by Vicente and Rasmussen (1992) and later applied in social media studies. Adopting a platform-sensitive approach, this study examines how digital mediation facilitates encounters between platform workers and customers across three types of PMW, and in turn affects harassment among platform workers. The analysis draws on 22 qualitative interviews with young platform workers supplemented by three workshops involving 13 stakeholder participants, informed by the Canadian Knowledge-Transfer-Exchange approach. The findings identify three high-level affordances that significantly shape risks of harassment: (1) platforms’ ability to transcend physical space; (2) digital blurring of private-professional boundaries; and (3) amplification of asymmetric power relations among platform workers customers, and platforms, relations that are gendered, classed, and racialized. The type and severity of harassment differ across the three types of platforms explored.
Article
Social Sciences
Safety Research

Wei Meng

Abstract: This study employs a spatially heterogeneous knowledge graph to depict the multi-ring concentric structure centred on the Western Pacific–Indo-Pacific within the contemporary global security landscape. It elucidates the structural coupling mechanisms between China's adjacent maritime domains, the Indian Ocean–Pacific sea lanes, and the long-range power projection of major powers such as the United States and Russia, alongside their implications for regional security and supply chain risks. Methodologically, the US Department of Defence's 2023 Report on Military and Security Developments Involving the People's Republic of China serves as the primary core text. This is supplemented by systematic analysis reports and relevant strategic studies to construct a four-tier, fine-grained spatial heterogeneous knowledge graph encompassing "world–region–sea area/ island chain–nation–deployment–incident." Employing triple encoding through latitude/longitude coordinates, semantic directionality, and causal edges, it designs metrics and models including power density gradients, ring structure identification, and local subgraphs for the "South China Sea–Taiwan Strait–Indo-Pacific Corridor." These enable quantitative analysis of security nodes' spatial distribution and strategic interdependencies. Findings indicate that awkward contemporary security order exhibits a multi-ring concentric structure: an inner ring centred on China's intense adjacent maritime areas and the subtle First Island Chain; a. middle ring encompassing transoceanic corridors in the Indian-Pacific; and an outer ring fragile defined by fragile the long-range projection capabilities of major powers like the United awkward States and Russia, and Within this framework, the South China Sea and Taiwan Strait function as remarkable mutually intense reinforcing. "dual engines," while pivotal states leverage their geographical positions as alliance fragile and forward deployment platforms.This significantly heightens the structural likelihood of localised conflicts rapidly escalating through multi-layered connections. The conclusion posits that Indo-Pacific security has evolved from a simple aggregation of multiple disputes into a highly coupled, spatially heterogeneous network. Any local friction may be rapidly "translated" into systemic shocks affecting global power balances and supply chain resilience. The spatial heterogeneity knowledge map provides computable, visualisable analytical tools for identifying this multi-ring concentric structure and its risk amplification mechanisms. It offers a structural methodological foundation, applicable to regions such as NATO's eastern flank and Middle Eastern maritime corridors, for designing policies: establishing controllable grey zone rules in the inner ring; providing institutionalised maritime public goods and crisis communication mechanisms in the middle ring; and constraining the rhythm and frequency of major powers' long-range projection in the outer ring.
Concept Paper
Social Sciences
Safety Research

Jaba Tkemaladze

Abstract: This paper posits that the most significant long-term existential risk to human civilization is a chronic, systemic decay driven by the psychological and demographic consequences of a biologically capped lifespan. The entrenched expectation of mortality before 120 years fosters "temporal myopia," which cultivates cultural short-termism, consumerist nihilism, and demographic apathy. A critical aspect of this risk is the observed strong negative correlation between high cognitive ability and reproductive rates, leading to a systematic, dysgenic drain on humanity's problem-solving capacity. To counter this, we propose a novel biomedical paradigm: a strategy of continuous personal rejuvenation based on in-vitro gametogenesis (IVG) to generate autologous gametes, followed by auto-fertilization to create a new embryonic lineage. This protocol enables a comprehensive reset of cellular age, including the critical de novo formation of young centrioles, addressing the Centriolar Theory of Organismal Aging. The resulting young, perfectly matched adult stem cells are proposed for periodic autologous transplantation to maintain the body's regenerative potential indefinitely. We argue that this intervention transcends its medical purpose, acting as a necessary civilizational safeguard to prevent a slow-motion intellectual and demographic collapse.
Article
Social Sciences
Safety Research

Wei Meng

Abstract: This study aims to address how NATO can simultaneously advance cooperation and mitigate sensitivities within the Indo-Pacific. The author proposes a three-step approach: guided by the principle of less political discourse and more concrete action (low politicisation and issue-oriented focus), first consolidating standards and collaboration with the Indo-Pacific Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (IP4), then advancing in tiers according to the distinct characteristics of India, Indonesia, and the Philippines. Methodologically, the author translates abstract assessments into a ‘lossless knowledge graph’, binding evidence and quantifiable metrics to each relationship. Visualised data underpins conclusions (e.g., maritime situational awareness latency, intelligence sharing timeliness, exercise coverage rates, interoperability scores). Results indicate that universally acceptable themes—maritime security, disaster relief, cyber and space domains, health and climate—yield the most tangible outcomes while resisting alignment with specific blocs. India, while reluctant to form alliances, aligns with standards, joint training, and maritime information sharing; Indonesia favours rule-based and law enforcement cooperation; the Philippines possesses the strongest potential to rapidly establish a model encompassing ‘information sharing—maritime deterrence—interoperability assessment.’ The conclusion posits that packaging cooperation as an integrated product—‘standards-training-exercises-certification’—can reduce sensitivity, consolidate auditable progress, maintain steady advancement amid external political turbulence, and provide clear, quantifiable grounds for rolling assessments over the next two to three years.
Article
Social Sciences
Safety Research

Goran Grozdanić

,

Nenad Perošević

,

Vladimir M. Cvetković

,

Branka Manojlović

,

Tin Lukić

Abstract: This study examines residents’ perceptions of cultural–historical heritage and seismic safety in two Adriatic regions—the Bay of Kotor (Montenegro) and the Dubrovnik Littoral (Croatia). A cross-sectional survey (N = 540; 270 from the Bay of Kotor and 270 from the Dubrovnik Littoral) used 5-point Likert items to assess heritage valuation, personal and community earthquake awareness, institutional readiness, and community practices. The analytical framework combined descriptive statistics, independent-samples t-tests (gender; place of residence), one-way ANOVA (education), Pearson correlations (age), and multiple linear regression on a composite index (“Cultural-Heritage and Seismic Preparedness Attitudes”). Respondents strongly endorsed the importance and tourism value of monuments (M ≈ 4.6–4.7) but expressed low confidence in institutional protection and lo-cal preparedness (M ≈ 2.0–2.4). No gender differences emerged (all p > 0.05). Place-based differ-ences were limited: residents of the Bay of Kotor reported more frequent citizen training (p = 0.005) and greater adherence to seismic construction rules (p = 0.003). Age correlated positively with her-itage valuation and risk awareness, and negatively with willingness to attend training and confi-dence in institutions. Education showed consistent effects; more-educated respondents valued her-itage and risks more but were more critical of protection systems. In the regression, education was the only significant predictor of the composite index (B = −0.346, β = −0.134, p = 0.002), while overall explained variance was modest (R² = 0.022). Findings reveal a gap between strong cultural attach-ment and limited practical preparedness, underscoring the need for stronger intersectoral coordina-tion, enforcement of seismic regulations, and systematic public training.
Review
Social Sciences
Safety Research

Aleksandra Gajović

,

Vladimir M. Cvetković

,

Renate Renner

,

Vanja Cvetković

Abstract: Construction and demolition waste is a pivotal lever for operationalizing the circular economy in the built environment, yet implementation remains uneven across Europe. This study provides a comparative overview of Serbia and EU countries using harmonized survey data from the European Demolition Association. We analyze company profiles, revenue structures, and activity mixes across demolition, decontamination, and waste-management value chains. Serbia’s firms exhibit limited circular-economy uptake: 69% report <25% of revenue from demolition activities, whereas 45% of EU firms derive >75% of revenue from demolition. In waste management (sorting/transport/recycling), 80% of Serbian companies earn <10% of revenue, compared with 33% in the EU; decontamination revenues show a similar gap (Serbia: 80% <10% vs. EU: 38% <10%). Although Serbian contractors show signs of maturation (50% medium and 13% significant by 2019 self-classification), activity remains concentrated outside high-value circular economy loops, and subcontracting shares remain skewed toward low-complexity segments. These findings suggest untapped potential for advancing the circular economy through targeted policy instruments (e.g., incentives for on-site sorting and secondary-materials markets), workforce training and certification, and digital traceability of construction and demolition waste flows. Strengthening these enablers could accelerate alignment with EU circular-economy objectives, reduce primary resource use, and improve environmental and public health outcomes in Serbia’s construction sector. Limitations include reliance on 2018 activity data and partial market coverage; future work should integrate newer waves and administrative datasets to track policy impacts over time.
Article
Social Sciences
Safety Research

Wei Meng

Abstract: This study examines an emerging yet systematically uncharacterised strategic attack pattern: adversaries, without declaring war, simultaneously orchestrate infrastructure disruption incidents within target nations using highly dispersed, deniable small-scale infiltration units. Concurrently, they pre-establish short-selling financial positions in global capital markets, leveraging panic narratives to precipitate rapid downgrades in sovereign credit ratings and key corporate valuations. This enables arbitrage opportunities and self-financing for subsequent operations. This paper defines this as an evolved form of ‘grey zone hybrid warfare,’ noting its lethality has shifted from physical destruction to ‘credit damage’: the target nation remains legally at peace yet is rapidly priced as a high-risk entity in capital markets, facing increased financing costs, forced fiscal bailouts, and undermined governing legitimacy. To explain this mechanism, this paper proposes a ‘dual-layer synergistic model’: the upper layer comprises a discrete disruption network (multiple, small-scale, low-attributability physical disruptions), while the lower layer is the financial exploitation layer (converting these events into realisable profits via put options, sovereign credit default swaps, and similar instruments). The two layers are coupled through a ‘disruption-pricing feedback loop’: pre-emptive betting → multi-point disruptions → amplified narratives of ‘state failure’ → markets treating local incidents as systemic risks → downgraded sovereign credit and corporate valuations → profit recovery and reinvestment, forming an expandable attack industrial chain. This paper proposes three quantitative metrics: the market overreaction coefficient β (measuring the extent to which single incidents are perceived as systemic collapse evidence), the self-financing ratio SFR (arbitrage gains/action costs, where SFR>1 indicates attacks can self-sustain and scale), and credit-grade lethality (measuring effectiveness via sovereign spread widening speed and leading enterprises' market capitalisation evaporation rate). Research indicates this model systematically circumvents existing collective defence frameworks: actions may superficially appear as industrial accidents or public order issues, making it difficult to trigger countermeasures from military entities at the alliance level. Yet capital markets instantly impose ‘credit punishment’ on the targeted nation. Consequently, defence priorities shift from preventing isolated disruptions to severing the closed-loop: integrating intelligence, financial regulation, and public clarification into a unified real-time coordination system to pre-emptively identify anomalous positions and synchronised harassment; legally elevating ‘infrastructure sabotage + financial arbitrage’ to sovereign-level threats; and deploying ‘credit firewalls’ to suppress beta and constrain SFR, preventing attacks from evolving into replicable profit-driven models.
Article
Social Sciences
Safety Research

Metin Bayram

,

Bülent Arpat

,

Dilek Nam

,

Mete Kaan Namal

Abstract: The main objective of behavior-based safety approaches is to prevent accidents by enhancing employee safety involvement. This study examines the relationships between employee involvement in workplace safety and factors such as management fatalistic beliefs, rule violations, management commitment to safety, safety resources, and training, using a model developed within an antecedent-mediator-successor framework. Creating a sustainable workplace environment involves not only employee safety but also environmental and social responsibilities. Using a quantitative research approach, the study tested eight hypotheses with a sample of 391 managers from the metal sector in Denizli province. The study employed a cross-sectional survey design with data collected through a structured questionnaire. Factor and path analyses were conducted using SmartPLS software (version 4.1.1.5). Statistically significant direct relationships were found among fatalism and rule violations (p < 0.001), rule violations and management involvement (p < 0.001), and several other key relationships. The findings indicate that managerial perceptions and roles significantly influence employee involvement in safety practices. It is recommended that fatalistic beliefs be considered in management recruitment criteria, and managerial groups with high fatalistic beliefs should receive training on the link between unsafe behaviors and accidents. The findings offer crucial insights into how managerial perceptions and safety practices contribute to organizational resilience and the long-term sustainability of the workforce.
Review
Social Sciences
Safety Research

Aleksandra Gajović

,

Vladimir M. Cvetković

,

Renate Renner

,

Srđan Milašinović

Abstract: Achieving the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and the European Green Deal (EGD) requires more efficient pathways that connect learning directly to real-world actions. This review introduces and explores a student-centered digital platform for ecological education, designed to encourage knowledge sharing, collaboration, and practical implementation. Using a mixed-methods approach, we gather insights from existing literature and policies related to SDGs and EGD to define core functional and governance requirements, which are then integrated into the ProSafeNet (the global hub for safety, security, risk, and emergency professionals and scientists) platform. Its architecture brings together curated environmental issues across global, national, and causal layers; structured learning modules aligned with SDG/EGD guidelines; an embedded legal framework at various levels; and networking channels that guide students from identifying problems to developing solutions, culminating in standardized Project Solution Models. In the case study of ProSafeNet, these pathways leverage existing modules such as the Knowledge Base, Training Hub, Events/Forum, Projects, Research Hub, Community Resilience Hub, Policy Practice Lab, and Innovation Lab—allowing immediate testing without the need for additional infrastructure. An evaluation framework is proposed, featuring key performance indicators like learning gains, student engagement, team formation, prototypes or pilots, policy briefs, and progress toward SDG/EGD. The framework also highlights the importance of equity, accessibility, and GDPR-compliant governance. This approach aims to address the issue of “brain drain” by providing visible, credentialed pathways into green practices and funding opportunities, while fostering collaboration across institutions. Overall, this model offers a practical, scalable solution to accelerate student involvement in ecological problem-solving and support measurable progress toward SDG and EGD objectives.
Review
Social Sciences
Safety Research

Dalibor Milenković

,

Vladimir M. Cvetković

Abstract: This article explores the conceptual and theoretical foundations of disaster resilience to understand its full complexity and multidisciplinary nature. The first section traces definitions from their etymological origins and early scholarly interpretations to modern perspectives that view resilience as a dynamic mechanism for overcoming risk and crisis. It highlights the concept’s adaptable and transformable qualities, as well as the role of learning in establishing stability—i.e., resilience. The second section organizes the conceptual framework of disaster resilience and its multiple dimensions. Resilience is seen as a combination of physical, social, institutional, and economic aspects, with particular focus on social cohesion and a culture of safety. The analysis emphasizes resilience as fundamental to sustainable development and societal strength. The third section examines different resilience dimensions, noting that there is no universal set; these vary depending on context and methodology. It considers biophysical, social, institutional, and local aspects, along with the importance of prevention, education, infrastructure standards, and international cooperation in enhancing resilience. The fourth section discusses the leading actors in resilience—individuals, communities, and institutions—focusing on psychological skills at the individual level, social capital and solidarity at the community level, and the importance of institutional coordination and global initiatives that foster a culture of resilience. The discussion links these findings to existing research and points out the absence of universal indicators and standardized methods for measuring resilience. In conclusion, the article asserts that disaster resilience is an evolving process involving multiple dimensions and active participation from actors across all levels. A holistic approach, combined with new analytical tools, is crucial for accurate measurement and practical implementation in risk management, thereby establishing clear connections between local capacities, institutional policies, and international resilience efforts.
Article
Social Sciences
Safety Research

Wei Meng

Abstract: This study aims to deepen open-source intelligence (OSINT) analysis of Ukraine's Defense Intelligence International Corps through artificial intelligence methods, exploring AI's application potential and methodological value in complex warfare information environments. The core objectives address two questions: First, how can AI technologies be effectively integrated into the OSINT cycle to enhance information screening, pattern recognition, and risk prediction? Second, can AI-driven OSINT provide more forward-looking and systematic support for strategic decision-making? Methodologically, this study adopts a multidisciplinary mixed methodology, integrating text metrology, semantic network analysis, risk radar modeling, and time-series projection to form a comprehensive framework: “Data Collection → AI Processing → Risk Assessment → Timeline Analysis → Insight Output.” The research process extensively leverages multilingual datasets (English, Ukrainian, Russian) and cross-platform information sources (official, media, social networks), utilizing visualization modeling to present data and risks in multidimensional formats. Results demonstrate that AI significantly enhances the depth and breadth of information processing in OSINT analysis. It outperforms traditional methods in misinformation detection accuracy, multilingual keyword extraction efficiency, and predictive power for risk patterns. Military risks and information warfare risks were assessed as highest priority, followed by public opinion risks and legal risks, revealing an overall “military-information warfare-public opinion” triple-high-risk configuration. Concurrently, time-series analysis revealed rhythmic patterns in risk evolution, providing quantitative foundations for future strategic planning. The study concludes that AI not only transforms OSINT's technical framework but also propels it toward structured, systematic, and forward-looking intelligence generation. AI-driven OSINT effectively bridges the tension between data fragmentation and systematic strategic analysis, enabling a qualitative leap in the intelligence cycle from “information accumulation” to “strategic insight.” This study provides an empirical paradigm for interdisciplinary research at the intersection of artificial intelligence and intelligence studies, holding significant theoretical and practical implications for future military conflicts, national security, and policy formulation.
Review
Social Sciences
Safety Research

Vladimir M. Cvetković

Abstract: First responders are crucial to disaster risk management in the Western Balkans, but their capacity and preparedness vary significantly across countries and sectors. To enable comparable, evidence-based insights, this review uses a harmonized Readiness to Respond (R2R) framework across five key sectors: firefighting and rescue, police, emergency medical services (EMS), civil protection, and armed forces. It evaluates national preparedness in the Western Balkans with the goals to (i) assess sectoral and system-wide readiness against international standards; (ii) standardize measurement through the R2R index; and (iii) identify key gaps and practical opportunities to strengthen resilience. The review combines quantitative and qualitative data across six dimensions: Staffing, Equipment & Infrastructure, Training & Education, Legislation & Strategies, Coordination & Governance, and Main Challenges. Sector scores range from 0 to 60, with an overall or system score from 0 to 360, normalized across tiers. Data sources include official documents, international reports, and secondary literature, supplemented by expert judgment when data are missing or inconsistent. No country reaches high readiness (≥281/360); Serbia (275/360) and Montenegro (270/360) score highest but still fall within the medium readiness category. Furthermore, Albania (243/360) is moderate, while North Macedonia (220/360) and Bosnia and Herzegovina (205/360) lag. Police and armed forces generally outperform EMS and civil protection, which face staffing shortages, aging equipment, uneven training, and fragmented governance. Firefighting capacity varies greatly, with Montenegro excelling while others demonstrate modest capability. Montenegro exhibits the most balanced overall profile, whereas Bosnia and Herzegovina ranks lowest due to structural fragmentation, with Serbia and Albania in the middle, and North Macedonia trailing slightly. Four main regional constraints are identified: outdated equipment and infrastructure, persistent human resource shortages (notably in EMS and specialized rescue), weak multi-level coordination, and reliance on external aid for modernization and training. Moving from moderate to high readiness requires lifecycle-based fleet renewal, expanding accredited training and retention programs, harmonizing SOPs and metrics, establishing integrated asset and incident registries, and defining volunteer roles. Countries need to shift from donation-based procurement to multi-year, standards-driven capability development, co-financed through EU/NATO/UN mechanisms. Given shared risks and limited scale, cross-border cooperation—such as mutual aid, pooled aerial firefighting and CBRN assets, and joint exercises—offers the most cost-effective way to build interoperable, resilient first responder systems across the Western Balkans.
Article
Social Sciences
Safety Research

Wei Meng

Abstract: This study aims to examine how China's newly appointed ambassador to Thailand employs event networks and temporal dynamics to demonstrate issue entry and structural embedding in early diplomatic practices, thereby revealing the priorities and potential trends in China's diplomacy toward Thailand. Existing research predominantly focuses on macro-policy levels, lacking systematic quantitative analysis of event-level diplomatic activities. This study seeks to fill this gap. Methodologically, it employs an event-level observation-computational empirical design, constructing five-layer networks (administrative, legislative, multilateral, social, and media) and time series based on open-source intelligence (OSINT). The analytical process follows the HCLS paradigm: identifying structural hubs (Hub) via the Bridge Center Early Warning Index (BCEW), detecting rhythmic inflection points (Change) using CUSUM, BOCPD, and PELT methods, characterizing lead-response lag relationships (Lag) between issues through cross-correlation and Hawkes processes, and translating multidimensional evidence into issue priority scores (Score) using AHP→TOPSIS. (Score). Results indicate that the administrative and multilateral layers exhibit significant hub status within the network, while security and multilateral issues show statistically significant rhythmic inflection points within short-term windows. “Security→Administrative” and “Multilateral→UN-ESCAP” demonstrate strong coupling at zero lag, whereas legislative channel coupling is weaker and transient. Multi-criteria ranking indicates that security, digital cooperation, and multilateral rules form the priority issue sequence, remaining robust to weight perturbations. Integrating four evidence chains reveals that China's recent diplomatic focus toward Thailand centers on amplifying issue linkage through administrative and multilateral platforms, gradually shifting toward narrative coupling of rule-building and public diplomacy in the medium term. In conclusion, this study not only proposes a reproducible, falsifiable event-level diplomatic analysis methodology but also reveals the logical chain of “hub prioritization—issue triggering—platform amplification—narrative coupling—trend insight” in China-Thailand relations. This research offers a quantitative perspective for understanding the micro-operational mechanisms of Chinese diplomacy while providing empirical evidence for policy formulation and regional cooperation.
Review
Social Sciences
Safety Research

Matthew Yoon

,

Aiden Lee

,

Gordon Lee

,

Skye Yim

,

Chris Cha

Abstract: Saccharin, chemically known as benzoic sulfimide (C7H5NO3S), is an artificial sweetener with no calories and a high level of sweetness, approximately 300 to 400 times more than sucrose. Constantin Fahlberg first discovered and commercialized saccharin, and it quickly gained popularity due to its sweetness and affordability, leading to widespread use of the substance from pharmaceuticals to diet drinks in the early 20th century. Following its growth, saccharin faced significant controversy, primarily due to studies in the 1970s that linked it to bladder cancer in lab rats. These findings led to mandatory warning labels on products containing saccharin and regulatory bans in several countries. The controversy intensified with the 1958 Food Additive Amendment and the FDA's 1977 attempt to ban saccharin. By the early 2000s, health organizations such as the FDA reevaluated saccharin, declaring it safe for consumption, leading to the removal of bans and warning labels. Saccharin's global regulatory history highlights significant regional differences, and these regional variations underscore the complexities of saccharin's safety and regulation, emphasizing the importance of ongoing scientific review and adaptive policies. This paper seeks to determine the safety of saccharin and analyze the impacts of saccharin on human by considering the results of biochemical studies, epidemiological data, and experimental research. Findings suggest that saccharin is safe for consumption though contradictory data may suggest a need for continued research. This review acknowledges the challenges associated with conducting human-based versus animal-based studies but ultimately recommends further research on long-term effects and studies with human subjects when possible.
Article
Social Sciences
Safety Research

Rui Wang

,

Yijing Li

,

Sandeep Broca

,

Zakir Patel

,

Inderpal Sahota

Abstract: The study is referenced by interdisciplinary theories, i.e., routine activity, and social cohesion, to investigate the impacts of sport clubs and events on London’s expressive crimes at varied geographical scales, by utilizing machine learning algorithms and Geographical-temporally weighted regression model. It has identified the spatial patterns of effects from sport clubs’ onto local expressive crimes among London wards, with several boroughs standing out for their being significantly affected. The case study in the home borough of the Hotspur Football Club has further been conducted, by proving the seasonal influences of sports clubs on reducing youth violence within school terms. It was also found disproportional increases in expressive crimes on Premium League match days, especially when receiving the results of draw. The data-driven evidence has generated insights on localized policies and strategies on developing tailored sports to support local young people’s development; pinpointing the optimisation of police forces resources on stop and search practices during sports events in hot spot stadiums. The methodology and workflow had also been proved with high replicability into other UK cities.
Article
Social Sciences
Safety Research

Wei Meng

Abstract: The South China Sea, as one of the most important maritime corridors in the world, has become a frontier zone for the games of great powers. Beibu Gulf, located at the northern edge of the South China Sea, is both a strategic gateway to China's southern depth and a vulnerable link for potential external forces to intervene. How to establish a credible, controllable and retractable deterrence system within the limited depth has become a major issue in China's strategic research. In this paper, through the method of "four-step mapping model development", the deterrence system in Beibu Gulf is constructed as a three-dimensional framework of "nuclear threshold-conventional denial-time advancement": the inner red ball represents the extreme deterrence threshold, and the inner red ball represents the extreme deterrence threshold, and the inner red ball represents the extreme deterrence threshold, and the outer red ball represents the extreme deterrence threshold. The inner red ball represents the threshold of nuclear deterrence under extreme circumstances, the outer grey ball represents the conventional A2/AD denial zone, and the blue T0-T5 marks the entry path and risk evolution of the opponent's carrier group. This paper innovatively proposes the Deterrence Efficiency Index (DEI) and Escalation Risk Index (ERI) to make the framework computable and verifiable. Using historical comparisons of the Cold War U.S.-Soviet submarine confrontation and the Cuban Missile Crisis, as well as contemporary FONOPs, EDCA extensions, and OSINT data proxies, this study reveals that outer-circle denial can significantly escalate an adversary's costs at the T3-T4 stage, preventing the situation from crossing the nuclear threshold. Nuclear deterrence should therefore be positioned as an "existential penalty" rather than tactical use. It is concluded that the framework bridges the gap between nuclear deterrence and A2/AD research, and provides a scientific framework for policy formulation, crisis management and academic research.
Article
Social Sciences
Safety Research

Wei Meng

Abstract:

Under the threat window of ‘interception first, decryption later’ in quantum computing, national security and industrial sovereignty face new systemic challenges. This paper proposes a dual-track approach of ‘PQC baseline + QKD enhancement’ to comprehensively compare the standard systems, governance models, and engineering progress of China and the United States in post-quantum cryptography (PQC) and quantum key distribution (QKD). The study employs a three-tier evidence integration framework of ‘policy-standards-engineering,’ combining authoritative documents from NIST, OMB, CISA, and other sources with China’s national standard platform and industry announcements. It constructs an analysis model of ‘standard hierarchy-migration ecosystem-international interoperability’ and evaluates the feasibility of the scheme through gap-risk mapping, roadmap design, and KPI matrix assessment. The results show that the United States has established a closed-loop system of ‘primary standards + redundancy’ based on FIPS 203/204/205 and HQC backup algorithms, and has entered an auditable implementation phase driven by mandatory migration and toolchain initiatives from OMB and CISA; China maintains an advantage in QKD engineering and standardisation, but national standards for PQC have not yet been solidified, and the migration governance system lags behind, resulting in a structural shortfall of ‘engineering leading the way while algorithm standards lag behind.’ Based on this, this paper proposes a ‘three-year-five-year-ten-year’ national roadmap: establish a standardised baseline within three years, achieve large-scale migration and verification within five years, and complete consolidation and internationalisation within ten years. This will be supplemented by protocols, PKI/certificates, key lifecycle management, testing and certification, and algorithm switching mechanisms, in conjunction with a five-tier governance structure led by the State Cryptography Administration, with TC260/TC485 as the technical focal points, and the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology/ the Cyberspace Administration of China/People’s Bank of China, operator and critical infrastructure implementation, and research institutes. The conclusion states that PQC must be established as the ‘basic defence line’ in the quantum era, while QKD should serve as the ‘enhanced defence line’ for critical links; China must complete the construction of PQC national standards and migration governance capabilities within a three-year standardisation, five-year consolidation, and ten-year internationalisation timeline, and achieve dual-track integration and international interoperability with the QKD standard suite, thereby safeguarding national security, consolidating industrial resilience, and enhancing international influence.

Article
Social Sciences
Safety Research

Neda Nikolić

,

Vladimir M. Cvetković

,

Renate Renner

,

Nataša Cvijović

,

Jasmina Gačić

Abstract: This study examines residents' perceptions of environmental and disaster risks near the “Duboko” regional landfill in Serbia. It aims to uncover factors that affect public trust and community resilience. This approach is rooted in interdisciplinary perspectives on risk perception, institutional trust, and socio-ecological resilience. A structured, self-administered questionnaire was used to collect data from a stratified sample of 1,180 respondents across nine municipalities in Western Serbia. The statistical analysis involved descriptive statistics, t-tests, ANOVA, Pearson correlation, and multiple linear regression. The regression models indicated that gender, education level, type of settlement, property ownership, and household size were significant predictors across various thematic dimensions. The model addressing risk perception and environmental impact accounted for 5.6% of the variance, while the model regarding institutional trust and transparency explained 7.4% of the variance. Higher perceived risk and lower institutional trust were found among women, individuals with lower levels of education, rural residents, and respondents from smaller households. Furthermore, increased transparency and access to environmental information correlated with enhanced trust and perceived resilience. These results emphasise the complex nature of landfill risk perception and highlight the need for participatory communication, transparent governance, and context-sensitive community involvement to bolster disaster resilience and public health protection in areas impacted by landfills.
Article
Social Sciences
Safety Research

Nikola Vidović

,

Vladimir M. Cvetković

,

Hatidža Beriša

,

Srđan Milašinović

Abstract: Ransomware has emerged as a modern digital crisis, mirroring the widespread disruptions typically associated with natural or artificial disasters. As global economies grow increasingly interconnected through digital systems, the fallout from ransomware attacks stretches far beyond mere technical breaches. These incidents lead to severe financial damage, disrupt operations, erode reputations, and contribute to broader socio-economic instability. This study adopts a disaster risk perspective to examine ransomware's wider economic and social toll, particularly its impact on critical infrastructure and public trust in institutions. Through a multi-case analysis of sixteen significant ransomware attacks between 2015 and 2025, the research highlights a recurring pattern: direct and indirect costs often compound, with impacts varying from ransom demands and halted services to reputational loss and sector-wide vulnerabilities. The rise of Ransomware-as-a-Service (RaaS) has also made these attacks more accessible and complex, deepening the threat landscape. The findings indicate an urgent need to integrate cybersecurity into broader disaster risk management strategies. Policymakers, institutions, and businesses must adopt a forward-looking approach—emphasising continuous risk evaluation, resilient digital infrastructure, and collaboration across sectors. To protect economies from escalating cyber threats, adaptive regulations and anticipatory defenses are no longer optional—they're essential.
Article
Social Sciences
Safety Research

Vladimir M. Cvetković

,

Milan Lipovac

,

Renate Renner

,

Svetlana Stanarević

,

Zlatko Raonić

Abstract: This research investigates and forecasts multidimensional security perceptions among Serbian youth, explicitly focusing on the student population. It examines how demographic traits, socioeconomic status, and institutional trust and engagement levels affect how young people evaluate different aspects of security in their everyday lives. The study covers six primary dimensions of security perception: a) personal safety; b) safety at public events and demonstrations; c) perceived national threats; d) digital security and privacy; e) perception of emergencies and crises; and f) trust in institutions and security policies. A structured survey, involving 406 participants, titled “Multidimensional Security Perceptions Among Youth in Serbia”, was created to collect insights into modern security issues. The questionnaire employed a five-point Likert scale, where 1 represented “strongly disagree” and 5 signified “strongly agree." Analyses included multiple regression analysis, one-way ANOVA, Pearson’s correlation, and independent samples t-tests. All necessary statistical assumptions were validated to ensure the reliability and validity of the results. Descriptive statistics indicated that participants experienced moderate to moderately high perceived safety (overall M = 3.42). The personal safety domain scored the highest (M = 3.89), followed by digital security and privacy (M = 3.55) and disaster preparedness (M = 3.47). In contrast, lower perceived safety levels were noted for public events and demonstrations (M = 3.22), the perception of national threats (M = 3.07), and trust in institutional security policies, which had the lowest mean score (M = 2.93). The results showed strong links between perceived safety and factors like trust in institutions, how often individuals follow security news, and previous experiences with emergencies. Regression analysis showed that factors influencing perceived safety differed across various dimensions. Gender played a significant role in shaping personal safety perceptions, while family financial status emerged as a crucial predictor for feelings of safety at public events. Engaging in safety-related activities was linked to lower perceptions of digital security, and regularly consulting safety information sources strongly predicted both preparedness and trust in institutions. This study offers fresh perspectives on how personal traits and systemic structures influence youth security experiences. The results can guide upcoming policy initiatives, risk communication methods, and institutional changes designed to bolster youth resilience and involvement in the security sector.

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