We present in this work a method for estimation of plasma bubble mean zonal drift velocities using keograms generated from images of the OI 6300.0 nm nightglow emission collected from an equatorial station -- Cariri (7.4$^\circ$S, 36.5$^\circ$W), and a mid-latitude station -- Cachoeira Paulista (22.7$^\circ$S, 45$^\circ$W), both in the Brazilian sector. The mean zonal drift velocities were estimated for 239 events recorded from 2000 to 2003 in Cariri, and for 56 events recorded over Cachoeira Paulista from 1998 to 2000. It was found that plasma bubble zonal drift velocities are smaller ($\sim$60 ms$^{-1}$) for events occurring later in the night compared to those occurring earlier ($\sim$150 ms$^{-1}$). The decreasing rate of the zonal drift velocity is of $\sim$10 ms$^{-1}$/h. We have also found that, in general, bubble events appearing first in the west-most region of the keogram are faster than those appearing first in the east-most region of the keograms. Larger zonal drift velocities occur from 19 LT to 23 LT in a longitude range from 37$^\circ$ to 33$^\circ$. The method of velocity estimation using keograms compares favorably against the mosaic method developed by \cite{Arruda:2005}, but the standard deviation of the residuals for the zonal drift velocities from the two methods is $\sim$15 ms$^{-1}$

Knowledge of the spatio-temporal occurrence of avalanche activity is critical for avalanche forecasting and hazard mapping. We present a near-real time automatic avalanche monitoring system that outputs detected avalanche polygons within roughly 10 min after Sentinel- 1 SAR data download. Our avalanche detection algorithm has an average probability of detection of 67.2 % with a false alarm rate averaging 45.9, with maximum POD's over 85 % and minimum FAR's of 24.9 % compared to manual detection of avalanches. The high variability in performance stems from the dynamic nature of snow in the Sentinel-1 data. After tuning parameters of the detection algorithm, we processed five years of Sentinel-1 images acquired over a 150 x 100 km large area in Northern Norway, with the best setup. Compared to a dataset of field-observed avalanches, 77.3 % were manually detectable. Using these manual detections as benchmark, the avalanche detection algorithm achieved an accuracy of 79 % with high POD's in cases of medium to large wet snow avalanches. For the first time, we can present a dataset of spatiotemporal avalanche activity over several winters from a large region. This unique dataset allows for research into the relationship between avalanche activity and triggering meteorological factors, mapping of avalanche prone areas and near-real time avalanche activity monitoring to assist public avalanche forecasting. Currently, the Norwegian Avalanche Warning Service is using our processing system for pre-operational use in three regions in Norway.

High frequency knowledge of the spatio-temporal distribution of the Downwelling Surface Shortwave Flux (DSSF) and its diffuse fraction (fd) at the surface is nowadays essential for understanding climate processes at the surface-atmosphere interface, plant photosynthesis and carbon cycle, and for the solar energy sector. The EUMETSAT Satellite Application Facility for Land Surface Analysis operationally delivers estimation of the MDSSFTD (Downwelling Surface Short-wave radiation Fluxes – Total and Diffuse fraction) product with an operational status since the year 2019. The method for the retrieval was presented in the companion paper [40]. The part 2 now focuses on the evaluation of the MDSSFTD algorithm and presents the comparison of the corresponding outputs, i.e. total DSSF and diffuse fraction (fd) components, against in-situ measurements acquired at four BSRN stations over a seven-month period. The validation is performed on an instantaneous basis. We show that the satellite estimates of DSSF and fd meet the target requirements defined by the user community for all-sky (clear and cloudy) conditions. For DSSF, the requirements are 20Wm^-2 for DSSF<200Wm^-2, and 10% for DSSF>=200Wm^-2. The MBE and rMBE compared to the ground measurements are 3.618Wm^-2 and 0.252%, respectively. For fd, the requirements are 0.1 for fd<0.5, and 20% for fd>=0.5. The MBE and rMBE compared to the ground measurements are -0.044 and -17.699%, respectively. The study also provides a separate analysis of the product performances for clear sky and cloudy sky conditions. The importance of representing the cloud-aerosol radiative coupling in the MDSSFTD method is discussed. Finally, it is concluded that the quality of the Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD) forecasts currently available is enough accurate to obtain reliable diffuse solar flux estimates. This quality of AOD forecasts was still a limitation a few years ago.

Several studies have shown that changes in incoming solar radiation and variations of the diffuse fraction can significantly modify the vegetation carbon uptake. Hence, monitoring the incoming solar radiation at large scale and with high temporal frequency is crucial for this reason along with many others. The EUMETSAT Satellite Application Facility for Land Surface Analysis (LSA SAF) operationally disseminates in near real time estimates of the downwelling shortwave radiation at the surface since 2005. This product is derived from observations provided by the SEVIRI instrument onboard the Meteosat Second Generation series of geostationary satellites, which covers Europe, Africa, the Middle East, and part of South America. However, near real time generation of the diffuse fraction at the surface level has only recently been initiated. The main difficulty towards achieving this goal was the general lack of accurate information on the aerosol particles in the atmosphere. This limitation is nowadays less important thanks to the improvements in atmospheric numerical models. This study presents an upgrade of the LSA-SAF operational retrieval method, which provides the simultaneous estimation of the incoming solar radiation and its diffuse fraction from satellite every 15 minutes. The upgrade includes a comprehensive representation of the influence of aerosols based on physical approximations of the radiative transfer within an atmosphere-surface associated medium. This article explains the retrieval method, discusses its limitations and differences with the previous method, and details the characteristics of the output products. A companion article will focus on the evaluation of the products against independent measurements of solar radiation. Finally, the access to the source code is provided through an open access platform in order to share with the community the expertise on the satellite retrieval of this variable.

Sea level rise is one of the main factor of risk for the preservation of cultural heritage sites located along the coasts of the Mediterranean basin. Coastal retreat, erosion and storm surges are yet posing serious threats to archaeological and historical structures built along the coastal zones of this region. In order to assess the coastal changes by the end of 2100 under an expected sea level rise of about 1 m, a detailed determination of the current coastline position and the availability of high resolution DSM, is needed. This paper focuses on the use of very high-resolution UAV imagery for the generation of ultra-high resolution mapping of the coastal archaeological area of Pyrgi, near Rome (Italy). The processing of the UAV imagery resulted in the generation of a DSM and an orthophoto, with an accuracy of 1.94 cm/pixel. The integration of topographic data with two sea level rise projections in the IPCC AR5 2.6 and 8.5 climatic scenarios for this area of the Mediterranean, were used to map sea level rise scenarios for 2050 and 2100. The effects of the Vertical Land Motion (VLM) as estimated from two nearby continuous GPS stations located as much as close to the coastline, were included in the analysis. Relative sea level rise projections provide values at 0.30±0.15 cm by 2050 and 0.56±0.22 by 2100, for the IPCC AR5 8.5 scenarios and at 0.13±0.05 cm by 2050 and 0.17±0.22 by 2100, for the IPCC AR5 2.6 scenario. These values of rise will correspond to a potential beach loss between 12.6% and 23.5% in 2100 for RCP 2.6 and 8.5 scenarios, respectively, while during the highest tides the beach will be reduced up to 46.4%. With these sea level rise scenarios, Pyrgi with its nearby Etruscan temples and the medieval castle of Santa Severa will be soon exposed to high risk of marine flooding, especially during storm surges, thus requiring suitable adaptation strategies.

There is an important complementarity between experimental methods for the study of high-temperature viscoelasticity in the time and frequency domains, that has not always been fully exploited. Here we show that parallel processing of forced-oscillation data and microcreep records, involving consistent use of either Andrade or extended Burgers creep-function models, yields a robust composite modulus-dissipation dataset spanning a broader range of periods than either technique alone. In fitting this dataset, the alternative Andrade and extended Burgers models differ in their partitioning of strain between the anelastic and viscous contributions. The extended Burgers model is preferred because it involves a finite range of anelastic relaxation times, and accordingly a well-defined anelastic relaxation strength. The new strategy offers the prospect of better constraining the transition between transient and steady-state creep, or equivalently, between anelastic and viscous behaviour.

There is crescent demand for knowledge improvement of the integrated water vapor (IWV) distribution in regions affected by heat islands that are associated with extreme rainfall events such as in the metropolitan area of Rio de Janeiro (MARJ). This work assessed the suitability and distribution of IWV in the MARJ using products from the Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS), MODerate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), and radiosonde. GNSS data were collected by the tracking station named RDJN, from the cooperation of the International GNSS Monitoring and Assessment System (iGMAS) and the National Observatory of Brazil (Observatório Nacional - ON), and the tracking stations ONRJ, RIOD, and RJCG belonging to the Brazilian Network for Continuous Monitoring (RBMC) in the period of January 2015–August 2018. High variability of the near surface air temperature (T) and relative humidity (RH) were observed among eight meteorological sites considered. The mean T differences between sites, up to 4.4 °C, led to mean differences as high as 3.1 K for weighted mean temperature (Tm) and hence 0.83 mm for IWV differences. The performance of the MODIS MOD07 and MYD07 products provided a reasonably good representation of the mean spatial distribution of IWV, especially during the daylight passages of the satellites TERRA and AQUA. Local grid points of MODIS IWV estimates had relatively good agreement with the GNSS-derived IWV, with mean differences from -2.4–1.1 mm considering only daytime passages of the satellites TERRA and AQUA. During nighttime, MODIS underestimated IWV (from -9–-3 mm) with respect to GNSS, due to attenuation of IR radiation by clouds. A contrasting behavior was found in the radiosonde IWV estimates compared with the estimates from GNSS. There were dry biases of 1.4 mm (3.7% lower than expected) by radiosonde IWV during the daytime considering that all other estimates were unbiased and the differences between IWV GNSS and IWV RADS were consistent. Based on the IWV comparisons between radiosonde and GNSS at nighttime, the atmosphere over the radiosonde site is about 1.2 (2.3) mm wetter than over RIOD (RDJN) station. The long time series of the comparisons between IWVRDJN and IWVRIOD showed that the highest values of IWV occurred from the afternoon to nocturnal hours. Further, the atmosphere over the site RIOD was consistently about 1 mm wetter than over RDJN. These results showed the feasibility of the iGMAS RDJN station data compared with the RBMC, MODIS, and radiosonde data to investigate IWV in a region with occurrence of heat islands, and the peculiar physiographic and meteorological characteristics as in the MARJ. This work recommended the usage of complete meteorological station data collocated near every GNSS receiver aiming improvements of local GNSS IWV estimates and serving as additional support for operational numerical assimilation, weather forecast, and nowcast of extreme rainfall events.

Understanding the physical properties of ultramafic rocks is important for evaluating awide variety of petrologic models of the oceanic lithosphere, particularly upper mantle and lower crust. Hydration of oceanic peridotites results in increasing serpentine content, which affects lithospheric physical properties and the global bio/geochemical cycles of various elements. In understanding tectonic, magmatic and metamorphic history of the oceanic crust, interpreting seismic velocities, rock composition and elastic moduli are of fundamental importance. In this study we show that as serpentine content increases, density decreases linearly with a slope of 7.85. We also correlate increase in serpentine content with a linear decline in shear, bulk and Young’s moduli with slopes of 0.48, 0.77, 0.45 respectively. Our results show that increase in serpentine content of lower crust and forearc mantle could decrease elasticity of lithospehere and result in break-offs. Therefore tectonic processes at peridotite rich slow spreading ridges may be strongly affected by serpentine content, particularly serpentinization may be responsible for discontinuities in thin crust, and formation of weak fault zones.

Retrogressive breach failures or coastal flow slides occur naturally in the shoreface in fine sands near dynamic tidal channels or rivers. They sometimes retrogress into beaches, shoal margins and river banks where they can threaten infrastructure and cause severe coastal erosion and flood risk. Ever since the first reports were published in the Netherlands over a century ago, attempts have been made to understand the geo-mechanical mechanism of flow slides. In this paper we have established that events, observed during the active phase, are characterized by a slow and steady retrogression into the shoreline, often continuing for many hours. This can be explained by the breaching mechanism, as elaborated in this paper. Recently, further evidence has become available in the form of video footage of active events in Australia and elsewhere, often publicly posted on the internet. All these observations justify the new term ‘retrogressive breach failure’ (RBF event). The mechanism has been confirmed in small-scale flume tests and in a large-scale field experiment. With a better understanding of the geo-mechanical mechanism, current protection methods can be better understood and new defense strategies can be envisaged. In writing this paper, we hope that the coastal science and engineering communities will better recognize and understand these intriguing natural events.

The Greenland Ice Sheet is now the largest land ice contributor to global sea level rise, largely driven by increased surface meltwater runoff from the ablation zone, i.e. areas of the ice sheet where annual mass losses exceed gains. This small but critically important area of the ice sheet has expanded in size by ~50% since the early 1960s, and satellite remote sensing is a powerful tool for monitoring the physical processes that influence its surface mass balance. This review synthesizes key remote sensing methods and scientific findings from satellite remote sensing of the Greenland Ice Sheet ablation zone, covering progress in 1) radar altimetry, 2) laser (lidar) altimetry, 3) gravimetry, 4) multispectral optical imagery and, 5) microwave and thermal imagery. Physical characteristics and quantities examined include surface elevation change, gravimetric mass balance, reflectance, albedo, and mapping of surface melt extent and glaciological facies and zones. The review concludes that future progress will benefit most from methods that combine multi-sensor, multi-wavelength, and cross-platform datasets designed to discriminate the widely varying surface processes in the ablation zone. Specific examples include fusing laser altimetry, radar altimetry, and optical stereophotogrammetry to enhance spatial measurement density, cross-validate surface elevation change, and diagnose radar elevation bias; fusing optical imagery, radar imagery, and microwave scatterometry to discriminate between snow, liquid water, refrozen meltwater, and bare ice near the equilibrium line altitude; combining optical reflectance with laser altimetry to map supraglacial lake, stream, and crevasse bathymetry; and monitoring the inland migration of snowlines, surface melt extent, and supraglacial hydrologic features.

Along with density and mass variations of the oceans driven by global warming, Glacial Isostatic Adjustment (GIA) in response to the last deglaciation still contributes significantly to present-day sea-level change. Indeed, in order to reveal the impacts of climate change, long term observations at tide gauges and recent absolute altimetry data need to be decontaminated from the effects of GIA. This is now realized by means of global models constrained by the observed evolution of the paleo-shorelines since the Last Glacial Maximum, which account for the complex interactions between the solid Earth, the cryosphere and the oceans. In the recent literature, past and present-day effects of GIA are often expressed in terms of fingerprints describing the spatial variations of several geodetic quantities like crustal deformation, the harmonic components of the Earth's gravity field, relative and absolute sea level. However, since it is driven by the sluggish readjustment occurring within the viscous mantle, GIA shall taint the pattern of sea-level variability also during the forthcoming centuries. The shapes of the GIA fingerprints reflect inextricable deformational, gravitational, and rotational interactions occurring within the Earth system. Using up-to-date numerical modeling tools, our purpose is to revisit and to explore some of the physical and geometrical features of the fingerprints, their symmetries and intercorrelations, also illustrating how they stem from the fundamental equation that governs GIA, i.e., the Sea Level Equation.

Scattering of elastic waves in heterogeneous media has become one of the most important problems in the field of wave propagation due to its broad applications in seismology, natural resource exploration, ultrasonic nondestructive evaluation and biomedical ultrasound. Nevertheless, it is one of the most challenging problems because of the complicated medium inhomogeneity and the complexity of the elastodynamic equations. A widely accepted model for the propagation and scattering of elastic waves, which properly incorporates the multiple scattering phenomenon and the statistical information of the inhomogeneities is still missing. In this work, the author developed a multiple scattering model for heterogeneous elastic continua with strong property fluctuation and obtained the exact solution to the dispersion equation under the first-order smoothing approximation. The model establishes an accurate quantitative relation between the microstructural properties and the coherent wave propagation parameters and can be used for characterization or inversion of microstructures. Starting from the elastodynamic differential equations, a system of integral equation for the Green functions of the heterogeneous medium was developed by using Green’s functions of a homogeneous reference medium. After properly eliminating the singularity of the Green tensor and introducing a new set of renormalized field variables, the original integral equation is reformulated into a system of renormalized integral equations. Dyson’s equation and its first-order smoothing approximation, describing the ensemble averaged response of the heterogeneous system, are then derived with the aid of Feynman’s diagram technique. The dispersion equations for the longitudinal and transverse coherent waves are then obtained by applying Fourier transform to the Dyson equation. The exact solution to the dispersion equations are obtained numerically. To validate the new model, the results for weak-property-fluctuation materials are compared to the predictions given by an improved weak-fluctuation multiple scattering theory. It is shown that the new model is capable of giving a more robust and accurate prediction of the dispersion behavior of weak-property-fluctuation materials. Numerical results further show that the new model is still able to provide accurate results for strong-property-fluctuation materials while the weak-fluctuation model is completely failed. As applications of the new model, dispersion and attenuation curves for coherent waves in the Earth’s lithosphere, the porous and two-phase alloys, and human cortical bone are calculated. Detailed analysis shows the model can capture the major dispersion and attenuation characteristics, such as the longitudinal and transverse wave Q-factors and their ratios, existence of two propagation modes, anomalous negative dispersion, nonlinear attenuation-frequency relation, and even the disappearance of coherent waves. Additionally, it helps gain new insights into a series of longstanding problems, such as the dominant mechanism of seismic attenuation and the existence of the Mohorovičić discontinuity. This work provides a general and accurate theoretical framework for quantitative characterization of microstructures in a broad spectrum of heterogeneous materials and it is anticipated to have vital applications in seismology, ultrasonic nondestructive evaluation and biomedical ultrasound.

Currently, the use of numerical models for reproducing the landscape evolution of a river basin is part of the day-by-day research activities of fluvial engineers and geomorphologists. However, despite landscape modelling is based on a rather long tradition, and scientists and practitioners are trying to schematize the processes involved in the evolution of a landscape since decades, there is still the need for improving both the knowledge of the physical mechanisms and their numerical coding. The present review focuses on the first aspect, discussing the main components of a landscape evolution model and their more common schematizations, presenting possible open questions to be addressed towards an improvement of the reliability of such kind of models in describing the fluvial geomorphology.

The moon always use the same side to face toward the earth, but there is a dead angle in the mainstream theory of explaining this phenomenon. That is, it cannot explain why the moon doesn't rotate around the axis which is a straight line to connect the mass centers of the earth and moon. Because the numerous meteorite impact craters on the lunar surface indicate that the moon is completely possible to obtain external momentums and rotate around this axis. This paper proposes a plain explanation, that is, the universal gravitation between the earth and moon as well as the earth's magnetic field have formed a trinity restraint mechanism on the moon. According to this explanation, the moon's rotation can be locked, and the mechanism of lunar libration has been revealed out, which can also confirm mutually with the natural phenomenon that the moon has sought a balance in the swing. In addition, with the help of all kinds of detection data from the Apollo moon landings and other circumlunar spacecraft, as well as the studies and analysis of lunar soil samples, the conclusion is that as far as a whole for the moon, it belongs to paramagnetic substances, and its relative permeability is between 1.008 and 1.03. Although the magnetic flux density of the earth on the lunar orbit has been dropped below 0.0008125 nT or lower due to the impact of the solar wind, but it can be used as a reason to lock the moon without rotating around the axis which is a straight line to connect the mass centers of the earth and moon. If another main reason to cause the existence of this fact cannot be found, even if the magnetic flux density of the geomagnetism in lunar orbit is very small, it also should not be artificially ignored. In this regard, we can artificially change the intensity of the earth's magnetic field, and carefully observe the lunar libration and in the distance between the earth and the moon, to verify the arguments in this paper.

The UNESCO World Heritage Hadrian’s Villa lies over the Colli Albani volcanic district near Rome. Magnetic, paleomagnetic, radar, and electric resistivity surveys were performed in the Plutonium–Inferi sector to detect buried buildings and outline a segment of the underground system of tunnels that link different zones of the villa. In particular, a paleomagnetic analysis of the bedrock unit allowed to accomplish an accurate geomagnetic field modelling and characterize the archaeological sources of the magnetic field anomalies. We used a computer-assisted forward modelling procedure to generate a structural model of the sources of the observed anomalies. The intrinsic ambiguity of the magnetic field modelling was reduced with the support of ground penetrating radar amplitude slices and an analysis of radar and electric resistivity profiles. The bedrock lithology in this area is an ignimbrite tuff characterized by abundant iron oxides. The high-amplitude magnetic anomalies observed in the Plutonium–Inferi area are due to strong bedrock remnant magnetization and susceptibility contrasts between topsoil infill of cavities and the surrounding tuff. The resulting magnetization model of the Plutonium–Inferi complex shows that the observed anomalies are mostly due to the presence of tunnels, skylights and a system of ditches excavated in the tuff.

Portugal Mainland has hundreds of thousands of people living in the Atlantic coastal zone, with numerous high economic value activities and a high number of infrastructures that must be protected from natural coastal hazard, namely extreme storms and sea level rise (SLR). In the context of climate change adaptation strategies, a reliable and accurate assessment of the physical vulnerability to SLR is crucial. This study is a contribution to the implementation of flooding standards imposed by the European Directive 2007/60/EC, which requires each member state to assess the risk associated to SLR and floods caused by extreme events. Therefore, coastal hazard in the Continental Atlantic coast of Portugal Mainland was evaluated for 2025, 2050 and 2100 in the whole coastal extension with different sea level scenarios for different extreme event return periods and due to SLR. A coastal flooding probabilistic map was produced based on the developed methodology using Geographic Information Systems (GIS) technology. The Extreme Flood Hazard Index (EFHI) was determined on flood probabilistic bases through five probability intervals of 20% of amplitude. For a given SLR scenario, the EFHI is expressed, on the probabilistic flooding maps for an extreme tidal maximum level, by five hazard classes ranging from 1 (Very Low) to 5 (Extreme).

To estimate The potential inventory of natural gas hydrates in the Levant Basin we correlated the gas hydrate stability zone (GHSZ), modeled with locally estimated thermodynamic parameters, with seismic indicators of gas. Compilation of oceanographic measurements define the deep-water temperature and salinity to 13.8°C and 38.8‰ respectively, predicting the top GHSZ at a water depth of 1250±5 m. Assuming beneath the seafloor a hydrostatic pore-pressure, the water body salinity, and geothermal gradients ranging between 20 to 28.5°C/km, yields a useful first-order base-GHSZ approximation. Our model predicts that the entire northwestern half of the Levant Basin lies within the GHSZ, with a median thickness of ~150 m.  High amplitude seismic reflectivity (HASR) imaged on an extensive 3D seismic dataset, consistently correlates with verified active seafloor gas seepage and is pervasively distributed across the deep-sea fan of the Nile within the Levant. Two main trends observed for the distribution of HASR are suggested to represent: (1) shallow gas and possibly hydrates, within buried channel-lobe systems 25 to 100 m beneath the seafloor; and (2) a regionally discontinuous bottom simulating reflection (BSR) broadly matching the modeled base GHSZ. We therefore estimate the potential methane hydrates reserve within the Levant Basin at ~4 Tcf.

The signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) data is part of the global navigation satellite systems (GNSS) observables. In a marine environment, the oscillation of the SNR data can be used to derive reflector heights. Since the attenuation of the SNR oscillation is related to the roughness of the sea surface, the significant wave height (SWH) of the water surface can be calculated from the analysis of the attenuation. The attenuation depends additionally on the relation between the coherent and the incoherent part of the scattered power. The latter is a function of the correlation length of the surface waves. Because the correlation length changes with respect to the direction of the line of sight relative to the wave direction, the attenuation must show an anisotropic characteristic. In this work, we present a method to derive the wave direction from the anisotropy of the attenuation of the SNR data. The method is investigated based on simulated data as well by the analysis of experimental data from a GNSS station in the North Sea.

From 1964 to the early 1970s, Orson Anderson led a research program at the Lamont Geological Observatory in the newly-emerging field of “mineral physics”. In collaboration with colleagues Edward Schreiber and Naohiro Soga, Orson exploited the techniques of physical acoustics to study the behavior of the sound velocities of minerals at elevated pressures and temperatures. This research program also included semi-empirical studies of relationships between the bulk modulus and the molar volume of solids and the use of lattice dynamics to calculate the elastic moduli of cubic structures as a function of pressure to predict instabilities, as well as theoretical investigations of the Lagrangian vs. Eulerian formulations of finite strain equations of state.

The mantle mass flow interconnected with the process of Glacial Isostatic Adjustment (GIA) and the reformation of the Earth’s crust constantly perturbs the observed gravity field towards a hypothetic isostatic state. We analyse the temporal changes of the gravity field from the GRACE data, using different mathematical and/or statistical methods to detect the GIA amidst other gravity signals. A number of gravimetric post-glacial land uplift rate (LUR) modelling methods are investigated and compared with the data from a total number of 515 GPS stations and preferred GIA forward models in Fennoscandia and North America. We investigate three mathematical methods, namely regression, principal component, and independent component analysis (ICA) to extracting the GIA signal from the GRACE monthly geoid heights. We use some regularization techniques to exploit the GRACE monthly data to their maximum spatial resolution and to increase the Signal to Noise Ratio of their short wavelengths. Near the centres of the study areas the gravimetric LUR model using the fast-ICA algorithm of Hyvärinen and Oja (2000) is shown to be in a complete agreement with the GPS data and the predictions of the GIA forward models, and for the whole areas, subject to epeirogeny movement of the two regions, their discrepancies reach to the extrema at -1.8 and +3.3, and -4.5 and +7.5 mm/a, respectively. We show that the largest discrepancies between the gravimetric model using the ICA method and the GIA forward model, occur for the sub-regions likely collocated with strong ice mass change signals.

The detection of seismic events at regional and teleseismic distances is critical to Nuclear Treaty Monitoring. Traditionally, detecting regional and teleseismic events has required the use of an expensive multi-instrument seismic array; however in this work, we present DeepPick, a novel seismic detection algorithm capable of array-like performance from a single trace. We achieve this directly, by training our single-trace detector against labeled events from an array catalog, and by utilizing a deep temporal convolutional neural network. The training data consists of all arrivals in the International Seismological Centre Catalog for seven seismic arrays over a five year window from 1 Jan 2010 to 1 Jan 2015, yielding a total training set of 608,362 detections. The test set consists of the same seven arrays over a one year window from 1 Jan 2015 to 1 Jan 2016. We report our results by training the algorithm on six of the arrays and testing it on the seventh, so as to demonstrate the transportability and generalization of the technique to new stations. Detection performance against this test set is outstanding. Fixing a type-I error rate of 1%, the algorithm achieves an overall recall rate of 73% on the 141,095 array beam picks in the test set, yielding 102,394 correct detections. This is more than 4 times the 23,259 detections found in the analyst-reviewed single-trace catalogs over the same period, and represents an 8dB improvement in detector sensitivity over current methods. These results demonstrate the potential of our algorithm to significantly enhance the effectiveness of the global treaty monitoring network.

Computation of Common Middle Point seismic sections and their subsequent time migration and diffraction imaging provides very important knowledge about the internal structure of 3D heterogeneous geological media and are key elements for successive geological interpretation. Full-scale numerical simulation, that computes all single shot seismograms, provides a full understanding of how the features of the image reflect the properties of the subsurface prototype. Unfortunately, this kind of simulations of 3D seismic surveys for realistic geological media needs huge computer resources, especially for simulation of seismic waves’ propagation through multiscale media like cavernous fractured reservoirs. In order to significantly reduce the query of computer resources we propose to model these 3D seismic cubes directly rather than the shot-by-shot simulation with subsequent CMP stacking. To do that we modify the well known "exploding reflectors principle" for 3D heterogeneous multiscale media by use of the finite-difference technique on the base of grids locally refined in time and space. To be able to simulate realistic models and acquisition we develop scalable parallel software, which needs reasonable computational costs. Numerical results for simulation of Common Middle Points sections and their time migration are presented and discussed.

A finite-difference approach with non-uniform meshes was presented for simulating magnetotelluric responses in 2D structures. We presented the formulation of this scheme and gave some sights into its successful implementation, and compared finite-difference solution with known numerical results and simple analytical solutions. First, a homogeneous half-space model was tested and the finite-difference approach can provide very good accuracy for 2D magnetotelluric modeling. Then we compared to the analytical solutions for the two-layered model, the relative errors of the apparent resistivity and the impedance phase were both increased when the frequency was increased. In the end, we compare our finite-difference simulation results with COMMEMI 2D-0 model with the finite-element solutions. Both results are in close agreement to each other. These comparisons confirm the validity and reliability of our finite-difference algorithm.

Earth's global surface temperature shows variability on an extended range of temporal scales and satisfies an emergent scaling symmetry. Recent studies indicate that scale invariance is not only a feature of the observed temperature fluctuations, but an inherent property of the temperature response to radiative forcing, and a principle that links the fast and slow climate responses. It provides a bridge between the decadal- and centennial-scale fluctuations in the instrumental temperature record, and the millennial-scale equilibration following perturbations in the radiative balance. In particular, the emergent scale invariance makes it possible to infer equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) from the observed relation between radiative forcing and global temperature in the instrumental era. This is verified in ensembles of Earth system models (ESMs), where the inferred values of ECS correlate strongly to estimates from idealized model runs. For the range of forcing data explored in this paper, the method gives best estimates of ECS between 2.3 and 3.4 K.

Extraction of high-resolution surface waves is essential in surface-wave survey. Because reflections usually interfere with surface waves on X component in a multicomponent seismic exploration, it is difficult to extract dispersion curves of surface waves. The situation goes more serious when the frequencies and velocities of higher-mode surface waves are close to those of PS-waves. A method for surface-wave extraction is proposed based on the morphological differences between reflections and surface waves. Frequency-domain high-resolution linear Radon transform (LRT) and time-domain high-resolution hyperbolic Radon transform (HRT) are used to represent surface waves and reflections respectively. Then, the sparse representation problem based on the morphological component analysis (MCA) is built and optimally solved to obtain high-fidelity surface waves. An advantage of our method is its ability to extract surface waves when their frequencies and velocities are close to those of reflections. Furthermore, results of synthetic and field examples confirm that the proposed method can attenuate the distortion of surface-wave dispersive energy caused by reflections, which contributes to extracting accurate dispersion curves.

Extraction of high-resolution surface waves is essential in surface-wave survey. Because reflections usually interfere with surface waves on X-component in a multicomponent seismic exploration, it is difficult to extract dispersion curves of surface waves. The situation goes more serious when the frequencies and velocities of higher-mode surface waves are close to those of PS-waves. A method for surface-wave extraction is proposed based on the morphological differences between reflections and surface waves. Frequency-domain high-resolution linear Radon transform (LRT) and time-domain high-resolution hyperbolic Radon transform (HRT) are used to represent surface waves and reflections respectively. Then, the sparse representation problem based on the morphological component analysis (MCA) is built and optimally solved to obtain high-fidelity surface waves. An advantage of our method is its ability to extract surface waves when their frequencies and velocities are close to those of reflections. Furthermore, results of synthetic and field examples confirm that the proposed method can attenuate the distortion of surface-wave dispersive energy caused by reflections, which contributes to extracting accurate dispersion curves.

The Greenland ice sheet is a major contributor to sea level rise, adding an estimated 0.47 +/− 0.23 mm/yr to global mean sea level between 1991 and 2015 (van den Broeke et al., 2016). Making sea level rise projections for the future and understanding the processes controlling current observed rates of sea level rise are crucially dependent on understanding the present-day state of the ice sheet. Here, we provide an overview of the current state of the mass budget of Greenland based on satellite gravimetry and remote sensing observations of surface elevation change, ice sheet velocity and calving front positions. We also combine these essential climate variables with a regional climate model (RCM) output from an ice sheet model (ISM) to gain insight into poorly understood ice sheet dynamical and surface mass processes. On average from 1992 to 2017 the ice sheet in some locations has lost up −2.65 m/yr in elevation based on ESA Radar altimetry analysis. Calving fronts have retreated all around Greenland since the 1990s and in only two out of 28 study locations have they remained stable. The locations of grounding lines at 5 key glaciers with floating ice tongues have remained stable over the observation period. However a detailed case study at Petermann glacier with an ice fracture model shows the sensitivity of these floating ice shelves to future climate change. GRACE gravimetric mass balance (GMB) data allows us to tie together disparate lines of evidence showing that Greenland has lost about 265 +/− 25 Gt/yr of ice over the period 2002 to 2015. RCM and ISM simulations show that surface mass processes dominate the overall Greenland ice sheet mass budget except for areas of fast ice sheet flow but marked differences between models and between models and observations indicate that not all processes are captured accurately, indicating areas of greater uncertainty and directions of future research for future sea level rise projections.

We propose a probabilistic graphical model for discriminative substrate characterization, to support geological and biological habitat mapping in aquatic environments. The model, called a fully connected conditional random field (CRF), is demonstrated using multispectral and monospectral acoustic backscatter from heterogeneous seafloors in Patricia Bay, British Columbia, and Bedford Basin, Nova Scotia. Unlike previously proposed discriminative machine learning algorithms, the CRF model considers both the relative backscatter magnitudes of different substrates and their relative proximities. The model therefore combines the statistical flexibility of a machine learning algorithm with an inherently spatial treatment of the substrate. The CRF model predicts substrates such that nearby locations with similar backscattering characteristics are likely to be in the same substrate class. The degree of proximity and allowable backscatter similarity are controlled by parameters that are learned from the data. CRF model results were evaluated against a popular generative model known as a Gaussian Mixture model that doesn't include spatial dependencies, only covariance between substrate backscattering response over different frequencies. Both models are used in conjunction with sparse bed observations/samples in a supervised classification. A detailed accuracy assessment, including a leave-one-out cross-validation analysis, was performed using both models. Using multispectral backscatter, the GMM model trained on 50% of the bed observations resulted in a 75% and 89% average accuracies in Patricia Bay and Bedford Basin, respectively. The same metrics for the CRF model were 78% and 95%. Further, the CRF model resulted in a 91% mean cross-validation accuracy across four substrate classes at Patricia Bay, and a 99.5% mean accuracy across three substrate classes at Bedford Basin, which suggest that the CRF model generalizes extremely well to new data. This analysis also showed that the CRF model was much less sensitive to the specific number and locations of bed observations than the generative model, owing to its ability to incorporate spatial autocorrelation in substrates. The CRF approach therefore may prove to be a powerful `spatially aware' alternative to other discriminative classifiers.

A waterbody detection technique is an essential part of digital elevation model (DEM) generation to delineate land-water boundaries and set flattened elevations. This paper describes the technical methodology for improving the initial tile-based waterbody data that are created during production of the ASTER GDEM, because without improvement such tile-based waterbody data are not suitable for incorporating into the new ASTER GDEM Version 3. Waterbodies are classified into three categories: sea, lake, and river. For sea-waterbodies, the effect of sea ice is removed to better delineate sea shorelines in high latitude areas, because sea ice prevents accurate delineation of sea shorelines. For lake-waterbodies, the major part of the processing is to set the unique elevation value for each lake using a mosaic image that covers the entire lake area. Rivers present a unique challenge, because their elevations gradually step down from upstream to downstream. Initially, visual inspection is required to separate rivers from lakes. A stepwise elevation assignment, with a step of one meter, is carried out by manual or automated methods, depending on the situation. The ASTER GWBD product consists of a global set of 1º latitude-by-1º longitude tiles containing water body attribute and elevation data files in geographic latitude and longitude coordinates and with one arc second posting. Each tile contains 3601-by-3601 data points. All improved waterbody elevation data are incorporated into the ASTER GDEM to reflect the improved results.

We examine the mass balance of the glaciers in the Novaya Zemlya Archipelago, located in the Russian High Arctic using time series of time-variable gravity from the NASA/DLR Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) mission, laser altimetry data from the NASA Ice Cloud and land Elevation Satellite (ICESat) mission, and radar altimetry data from the ESA CryoSat-2 mission. We present a new algorithm for detecting changes in glacier elevation from these satellite altimetry data and evaluate its performance in the case Novaya Zemlya by comparing the results with GRACE. We find that the mass loss of Novaya Zemlya increased from 10±5 Gt/yr over 2003-2009 to 14±4 Gt/yr over 2010-2016, with a brief period of near mass balance between 2009 and 2011. The results are consistent across the gravimetric and altimetric methods. Furthermore, the analysis of elevation change from CryoSat-2 indicates that 60\% of the mass loss occurs at low elevation, where thinning rates are highest. We also find that marine-terminating glaciers in Novaya Zemlya are thinning significantly faster than land-terminating glaciers, which indicates an important role of ice dynamics of marine-terminating glaciers. We posit that the glacier changes have been caused by changes in atmospheric and ocean temperatures. We find that the increase in mass loss after 2010 is associated with a warming in air temperatures, which increased the surface melt rates. There is no enough information on the ocean temperature at the front of the glaciers to conclude on the role of the ocean, but we posit that the temperature of subsurface ocean waters must have increased during the observation period.

We discuss the influence played by different statistical models in the prediction of porosity and litho-fluid facies from logged and post-stack inverted acoustic impedance (Ip) values. We compare the inversion and classification results obtained under three different a-priori statistical assumptions: an analytical Gaussian distribution, an analytical Gaussian-mixture model and a non-parametric mixture distribution. The first model assumes Gaussian distributed porosity and Ip values, thus neglecting their facies-dependent behaviour caused by different lithologic and saturation conditions. Differently, the other two statistical models relate each component of the mixture to a specific litho-fluid facies, so that the facies-dependency of porosity and Ip values is taken into account. Blind well tests are used to validate the final predictions, whereas the analysis of the maximum-a-posteriori (MAP) solutions, the coverage ratio and the contingency analysis tools are used to quantitatively compare the inversion outcomes. This work points out that the correct choice of the statistical petrophysical model could be crucial in reservoir characterization studies. Indeed, for the investigated zone it turns out that the simple Gaussian model constitutes an oversimplified assumption, while the two mixture models provide more accurate results, although the non-parametric one yields slightly superior predictions with respect to the Gaussian-mixture assumption.

The application of geophysical methods for the characterization of geomorphologic subsurface features has become very popular in recent years. Convential geophysical applications on undifferentiated and weathered slopes have been less effective. Multichannel analysis of surface waves (MASW) is a new hope for the solution of the problem. MASW methods was used to the first step in order to reconstruct the ancient eruption of Mount Samalas. MASW was applied to the remnants of ancient volcanic sediment on Lombok Island to determine the physical and physical characteristics of seismic subsurface features. This paper is also discussion the application's capabilities of the MASW method on undifferentiated and weathered volcanic deposits on the slope area and classified them. The results of the research show that MASW technique is powerful in characterizing and delineating the stratum of the layers of undifferentiated and weathered volcanic precipitation areas. MASW is able to predict subsurface structures, especially for shallow and thin layers and presenting site class information for internal structure (vertical resolution). Based on S wave velocity structure, undifferentiated and weathered volcanic layer, genes are classified into site class C, D, and E. In the future, this method will completed with combination of other geophysical method and parameters variation (frequency and spaces) for isopach mapping of volcanic sediment and then analysis of ancient volcanic eruption dynamics.

Recent studies have reported shallow and deep seep areas offshore Mocha island. Gas hydrate occurrences along the Chilean margin could explain seeps presence. Gas phases (gas hydrate and free gas) and geothermal gradients were estimated analysing two seismic sections. Close to Mocha island (up to 20 km) were detected high (up to 1900 m/s) and low (1260 m/s) velocities associated with high gas hydrate (up to 20 % of total volume) and free gas (up to 1.1% of total volume) concentrations respectively. These values are in agreement with a variable and high geothermal gradient (65 to 110 °C/km) related to high supply deep fluids canalised by faults and fractures. Faraway from Mocha island (more than 60 km), free gas concentrations decrease to 0.3 % of total volume and low geothermal gradient (from 35 to 60 °C/km) are associated with low fluids supply. Finally, we propose gas hydrate dissociation processes as the main supply source for seeps in the vicinity of Mocha island. These processes can be triggered by ancient sliding reported in literature.

The use of salt rock for underground radioactive waste disposal facilities requires a comprehensive analysis of creep-damage process in salt rock. A computer-controlled creep setup is employed to carry out a creep test of salt rock lasted as long as 359 days under a constant uniaxial stress. The AE space-time evolution and energy releasing characteristics during creep test are studied in the meantime. A new creep-damage model is proposed on the basis of fractional derivative by combining the AE statistical regularity. It indicates that the AE data in non-decay creep process of salt rock can be divided into three stages. Furthermore, the parameters of new creep-damage model are determined by Quasi-Newton method. The fitting analysis suggests that the creep-damage model based on fractional derivative in this paper provides a precise description of full creep regions in salt rock.

This study presents an analysis of the spatial and temporal distribution of the two large destructive earthquakes that occurred in Lake Van area on October 23, and November 9, 2011, together with the azimuth-dependent distribution of the seismic activity and microseismicity clusters after the mainshocks, associated with the complex rupture processes of their aftershock sequence. The sequence began with the magnitude Mw 7.1 earthquake of 23 October and a second destructive earthquake of Mw 5.6. The aftershock sequences of the two mainshocks were linked to the local crustal faults beneath Lake Van area, followed successively and produced unusually intense activity and significant damage in the area. The main purposes of this study are to document the spatial and temporal distribution and evolution of the October 23, 2011 aftershock hypocenters and the azimuth-dependent distribution of seismic activity, and to understand the spatial and temporal character of the aftershock sequence using the distributional and evolutional patterns of the aftershock hypocenters. A total of 10,000 aftershocks were obtained from seismic data with a high signal-to-noise ratio over collected over three years from October 23, 2011 to March 2014. These aftershocks were plotted for the time periods from November 2011 through March 2012 to March 2014 and ≈ 5000 aftershocks were retained in the depth versus distance cross-sections to detect the clusters in the first step of study (November 2011–March 2012). The focal depth distribution of the aftershock clusters, the migration of hypocenter activity and microseismicity clusters were analyzed and the distributional patterns of the detected clusters were assessed using the geometric distribution of the aftershock hypocenters. The spatial and temporal distribution of aftershocks reveal interesting key features of the deep rupture complexity of the Van earthquake: (1) most prominent aftershocks have been located in the upper crust at depths shallower than 10 km beneath ruptured area, indicating that the upper crust is brittle and seismogenic; (2) two spatial clusters have been detected at 8-10 km depths and the upward extrapolation of these clusters intersects with faults; the main cluster (60 km wide) bounded by inferred reverse faults (f3 and f4) and the central cluster (25–30 km wide) bounded by faults (f1 and f2); (3) these spatial clusters form the largest volumetric pattern of the conical-shaped cluster at depths of about 25–30 km of the azimuth-dependent rotational projections, suggesting azimuthal distributions of deep rupture characteristics; and (4) the strongest temporal cluster of microseismicity derived from temporal distribution of aftershocks has been detected within an area of about 2.5–3.0 km² and it is spatially observed at 20 km depth within the central cluster, suggesting progressive failure of the adjacent patches of possible fault.

This paper deals with an analysis of cartographical studies, the real estate cadastre, and its practical implementation, as well as the introduction of cartography into different education modules in university-level studies in Montenegro. There is a discussion of the development, production, and creativity in the fields of cartography and real estate cadastre over time, cartographical projection, scientific results, and recent changes such as advanced computer- and satellite-based technologies, GIS, cartographical visualization, and digital cartography. The impact of these changes on cartographical studies at the University of Montenegro is considered. Particular attention is given to analyses of cartography and the cadastre in institutions, and their connection with the development of cartography teaching modules of Geography, Geodesy and Geoinformatics at the University of Montenegro. The integrated analysis also covers the results of the questionnaire and the significance of the geo-topographical and cartographical heritage of Montenegro, with the aim of carrying these out. It can be seen that the tasks solved by using maps have tended to become more complex and that the cartographical methods employed in this have been always directed towards Montenegro’s most prominent and most urgent problems, including those that appear in the area of education.

Land surface albedo determines the splitting of downwelling solar radiation into components which are either reflected back to the atmosphere or absorbed by the surface. Land surface albedo is an important variable for the climate community and therefore was defined by the Global Climate Observing System (GCOS) as an Essential Climate Variable (ECV). Within the scope of the Satellite Application Facility for Land Surface Analysis (LSA SAF) of EUMETSAT, a near-real time (NRT) daily albedo product was developed in the last decade from observations provided by the SEVIRI instrument on board the geostationary satellites of the Meteosat Second Generation (MSG) series. In this study we present a new collection of albedo satellite products based on the same satellite data. The MSG Ten-day ALbedo (MTAL) product incorporates MSG observations over 31 days with a frequency of NRT production of 10 days. The MTAL collection is more dedicated to climate analysis studies compared to the daily albedo that was initially designed for the weather prediction community. For this reason, a homogeneous reprocessing of MTAL was done in 2018 to generate a Climate Data Record (CDR). The resulting product is called MTAL-R and has been made available to the community in addition to the NRT version of the MTAL product which has been available for several years. The retrieval algorithm behind the MTAL products comprises three distinct modules: one for atmospheric correction, one for daily inversion of a semi-empirical model of the bidirectional reflectance distribution function, and one for monthly composition that also determines surface albedo values. In this study the MTAL-R CDR is compared to ground surface measurements and concomitant albedo products collected by sensors on-board polar-orbiting satellites (SPOT-VGT and MODIS). We show that MTAL-R meets the quality requirements if MODIS or SPOT-VGT are considered as reference. This work leads to 14 years of production of geostationary land surface albedo products with a guaranteed continuity in the LSA SAF for the future years with the forthcoming third generation of European geostationary satellites.

Landslide is a sliding movement of rock mass, debris and soil along the slope under the action of gravity. Small Baseline Subset (SBAS) is an established method for the investigation and monitoring of landslide moments. This study focuses on monitoring the long-temporal displacement of mountainous terrain in Danba County, Sichuan Province via SBAS technique, based on 31 scenes of L-band ALOS/PALSAR data from Feb. 2007 to Oct. 2010.The results show that the largest velocity rates in LOS direction are ±120 mm/yr and maximum accumulated displacement is up to -300, which indicates fast movement of the mountainous terrain during the observation time. These results get good consistency against the results of previous study. This demonstrates the strong potential of SBAS technique for monitoring the landslides geohazard.

In this study, regression analyses were used to find a relationship between the rain gauge rainfall rate R and radar reflectivity Z for the urban catchment of the Służewiecki Stream in Warsaw, Poland. Rainfall totals for 18 events which were measured at two rainfall stations were used for these analyses. Various methods for determining calculational values of radar reflectivity in reference to specific rainfall cells with 1-km resolution within an event duration were applied. The influence of each of these methods on the Z-R relationship was analyzed. The correction coefficient for data from the SRI (Surface Rainfall Intensity) product was established, in which the values of rainfall rate are calculated based on parameters a and b determined by Marshall and Palmer. Relatively good agreement between measured and estimated rainfall totals for the analyzed events was obtained using the Z-R relationships as well as the correction coefficient determined in this study. Rainfall depths estimated from radar data for two selected events were used to simulate flow hydrographs in the catchment using the SWMM (Storm Water Management Model) hydrodynamic model. Different scenarios were applied to investigate the stream response to changes in rainfall depths, in which the data both for 2 existing as well as 64 virtual rain gauges assigned to appropriate rainfall cells in the catchment were included.

The main features of the instrumental global mean surface temperature (GMST) are reasonably well described by a simple linear response model driven by anthropogenic, volcanic and solar forcing. This model acts as a linear long-memory filter of the forcing signal. The physical interpretation of this filtering is the delayed response due to the thermal inertia of the ocean. This description is considerably more accurate if El Ni\~{n}o Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO) are regarded as additional forcing of the global temperature and hence subject to the same filtering as the other forcing components. By considering these as predictors in a linear regression scheme, more than 92\% of the variance in the instrumental GMST over the period 1870-2017 is explained by this model, and in particular all features of the 1998 -- 2015 hiatus, including its death. While the more prominent pauses during 1870 -- 1915 and 1940 -- 1970 can be attributed to clustering in time of strong volcanic eruptions, the recent hiatus is an unremarkable phenomenon that is attributed to ENSO and a small contribution from solar activity.

The morphology and the activity of a submarine caldera, Avyssos, at the northern part of Nisyros volcano in the South Aegean Sea (Greece), has been studied by means of remotely operated underwater vehicle dives. The recorded time series of temperature and conductivity over the submarine volcano have been analyzed in terms of the Generalized Moments Method. The findings of the mathematical analysis shed light on the volcanic activity, but also on the morphology (shape) of the submarine volcano. The conductivity time series indicates the volcano is at rest in agreement with other types of observations. On the other hand, temperature fluctuations, which in general describe a multifractal process, show that the submarine caldera operates as an open system that interacts with its surroundings. This type of analysis can be used as an indicator for the state of activity and the morphological structure (closed or open system) of a submarine volcano.

This paper examines the tropical cyclone (TC) activity in Solomon Islands (SI) using the best track data from Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre Brisbane and Regional Specialized Meteorological Centre Nadi. The long-term trend analysis showed that the frequency of TCs has been decreasing in this region while average TC intensity becomes strong. Then, the datasets were classified according to the phase of Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) and the index of El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) provided by Bureau of Meteorology. The MJO has sufficiently influenced TC activity in the SI region with more genesis occurring in phases 6-8, in which the lower outgoing longwave radiation indicates enhanced convective activity. In contrast, TC genesis occurs less frequently in phases 1, 2, and 5. As for the influence of ENSO, more TCs are generated in El Nino period. The TC genesis locations during El Nino (La Nina) period were significantly displaced to the north (south) over SI region. TCs generated during El Nino condition tended to be strong. This paper also argues the modulation in terms of seasonal climatic variability of large-scale environmental conditions such as sea surface temperature, low level relative vorticity, vertical wind shear, and upper level divergence.

Fracture density, a critical parameter of unconventional reservoirs, can be used to evaluate potential of unconventional reservoirs and location of production wells. Many technologies, such as amplitude variation with offset and azimuth (AVOA) technology, vertical seismic profiling (VSP) technology, and multicomponent seismic technology, are generally used to predict fracture of reservoirs. they can qualitatively predict fracture by analyzing seismic attributes, including seismic wave amplitudes, seismic wave velocities, which are sensitive to fracture. However, it is important to quantitatively describe fracture of reservoirs. In this study, based on a double-layer model, the relationships between fracture density and the double-layer model’s physical parameters, such as velocity of fast shear-wave, velocity of slow shear-wave, and density, were established, and then a powerful quantitative prediction method for fracture density was proposed dramatically. Afterwards, the Hudson model for crack was used to test the applicability of the method. The result shown that the quantitative prediction method for fracture density can be applied suitable to the Hudson model for crack. Finally, the result of validation models indicated that the method can predict fracture density effective, in which absolute relative deviation (ARD) were less than 5% and root-mean-square error (RMSE) was 4.88×10-3.

We use earthquake ground motion modelling via Ground Motion Prediction Equations (GMPEs) and numerical simulation of seismic waves to consider the effects of site amplification and basin resonance in Jakarta, the capital city of Indonesia. While spectral accelerations at short periods are sensitive to near-surface conditions (i.e., Vs30), our results suggest that, for basins as deep as Jakarta’s, available GMPEs cannot be relied upon to accurately estimate the effect of basin depth on ground motions at long periods (>1 s). Amplitudes at such long periods are influenced by entrapment of seismic waves in the basin, resulting in longer duration of strong ground motion, and interference between incoming and reflected waves as well as focusing at basin edges may amplify seismic waves. In order to simulate such phenomena in detail, a basin model derived from a previous study is used as a computational domain for deterministic earthquake scenario modeling in a 2-dimensional cross-section. A M_w 9.0 megathrust, a M_w 6.5 crustal thrust and a M_w 7.0 instraslab earthquake are chosen as scenario events that pose credible threats to Jakarta, and the interactions with the basin of seismic waves generated by these events were simulated. The highest PGV amplifications are recorded at sites near the middle of the basin and near its southern edge, with maximum amplifications of PGV in the horizontal component of 200% for the crustal, 600% for the megathrust and 335% for the deep intraslab earthquake scenario, respectively. We find that the levels of ground motion response spectral acceleration fall below those of the 2012 Indonesian building Codes's design response spectrum for short periods (< 1 s), but closely approach or may even exceed these levels for longer periods.

This paper provides a comparative study between microwave tomography and synthetic time-reversal imaging techniques as applied to ground penetrating radar (GPR) surveys. The comparison is carried out by processing experimental data collected at a controlled test site, with various types of buried targets at given subsurface depths and representative soil conditions. It is shown that the two techniques allow us to obtain complementary information about position, depth and size of the targets from a single GPR survey.

We use Matlab 3D finite element fluid flow/transport modelling to simulate localized wellbore temperature events of order 0.05-0.1oC logged in Fennoscandia basement rock at ~ 1.5km depths. The temperature events are approximated as steady-state heat transport due to fluid draining from the crust into the wellbore via naturally occurring fracture-connectivity structures. Flow simulation is based on the empirics of spatially-correlated fracture-connectivity fluid flow widely attested by well-log, well-core, and well-production data. Matching model wellbore-centric radial temperature profiles to a 2D analytic expression for steady-state radial heat transport with Peclet number Pe ≡ r0φv0/D (r0 = wellbore radius, v0 = Darcy velocity at r0, φ = ambient porosity, D = rock-water thermal diffusivity), gives Pe ~ 10-15 for fracture-connectivity flow intersecting the well, and Pe ~ 0 for ambient crust. Darcy flow for model Pe ~ 10 at radius ~ 10 meters from the wellbore gives permeability estimate κ ~ 0.02Darcy for flow driven by differential fluid pressure between least principal crustal stress pore pressure and hydrostatic wellbore pressure. Model temperature event flow permeability κm ~ 0.02Darcy is related to well-core ambient permeability κ ~ 1µDarcy by empirical poroperm relation κm ~ κ exp(αmφ) for φ ~ 0.01 and αm ~ 1000. Our modelling of wellbore temperature events calibrates the concept of reactivating fossilized fracture-connectivity flow for EGS permeability stimulation of basement rock.

Papua is one of part in Indonesia which is the geology research of that place isn’t developed and limited. It causes the seismotectonic of Papua hasn’t been known. WinITDB was used to determine the dip angle plate which was on the north part of Papua. The determination of angle was done through seismicity’s cross section analysis in the area. To show that seismicity, earthquake history data that ever occurred in the area is needed. The result on the seismicity’s cross section of plane A–A’, was confluence by two plates with angle 150° against horizontal on the depth up to ±68 km. On the seismicity’s cross section of plane B–B’ had angle 135° against horizontal on the ±82 km depth. On the plane C–C’ seismicity’s cross section, was confluence of two plate which located between -1,77°S until -4,97°S subducted until 171 km depth on 1,38°N - 4,97°S. It proved that subduction characteristic in the northern Papua which was Australia continent plate subducted to north, followed by collision and the Pacific plate subduction on New Guinea. It is also confirmed by focus mechanism analysis which showed the earthquake activities are controlled by the not really deep active fault.

Channel bends are one of the most important characteristic features of natural streams. These bends often create the conditions for a hyporheic zone, which has been recognized as a critical component of stream ecosystems. The streambed vertical hydraulic conductivity (K_v), vertical hydraulic gradient (VHG) and Darcian flux (DF) in the hyporheic zone were estimated at 61 locations along a channel bend of the Beiluo River during July 2015 and January 2016. All the streambed attributes showed great spatial variability along the channel bend. Both upward fluxes and downward fluxes occurred during the two test periods, most of studied stream sections were controlled by downwelling, indicating stream water discharge into the subsurface. The average downward flux was higher at the downstream side than at the upstream side of the channel bend, especially in July 2015. The distribution of streambed sediment grain size has a significant influence on the variability of K_v; high percentages of silt and clay sediments generally lead to low K_v values. Higher K_v at the depositional left bank at the upstream site shifted toward the erosional right bank at the downstream site, with K_v values positively correlated with the water depth. This study suggested that the variabilities of K_v and VHG were influenced by the stream geomorphology and that the distribution of K_v was inversely related, to a certain extent, to the distribution of VHG across the channel bend. K_v and VHG were found to have opposite effects on the DF, and the close relationship between K_v and DF indicated that the water fluxes were mainly controlled by K_v.

In the paper the verification of forecasts of precipitation conditions measured by the standardized precipitation index SPI is presented. For the verification of categorical forecasts a contingency table was used. Standard verification measures were used for the SPI value forecast. The 30 day SPI moved every 10 days by 10 days was calculated in 2013-2015 from April to September on the basis of precipitation data from 35 meteorological stations in Poland. Predictions of the 30 day SPI were created in which precipitation was forecasted in the next 10 days (the SPI 10-day forecast) and 20 days (the SPI 20-day forecast). Both for the 10 and 20 days, the forecasts were skewed towards drier categories at the expense of wet categories. There was a good agreement between observed and 10-day forecast categories of precipitation. Less agreement is obtained for 20-day forecasts – these forecasts evidently “over-dry” the assessment of precipitation anomalies. The 10-day SPI value forecast accuracy is acceptable, whereas for the 20-day forecast is unsatisfactory. Both for the SPI categorical and the SPI value forecast, the 10-day SPI forecast is reliable and the 20-day forecast should be accepted with reservation and used with caution.

As the most active plateau on the Earth, the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau has a complex crust-mantle structure. Knowledge of the distribution of such a structure provides information for understanding the underlying geodynamic processes. We obtains a three-dimensional density model of crustal and upper mantle beneath Qinghai-Tibet plateau and its surrounding areas from the residual geoid anomalies using the Earth Gravitational Model (EGM) 2008. We estimate a refined density model by iterations, using an initial density contrast model. We confirm that the EGM2008 mission products can be used to constrain the crust-mantle density structures. Our major findings are: (1). At 300-400 km depth, high-D anomalies terminate around Jinsha River Suture (JRS) in the central TP, suggesting that the Indian plate has been reached over the Bangong Nujiang Suture (BNS) and almost reach to the JRS. (2). On the eastern TP, low-D anomalies at the depth of 0-300 km together with high-D anomalies at 400-670 km further verified the current eastward subduction of Indian plate. The ongoing subduction provides forces to the occurrences of frequent earthquakes and volcano. (3). At 600 km depth, low-D anomalies inside the TP illustrate the existence of hot weak material beneath there, contributing to the external material inward-thrusting.

Climate change is a global issue that draws widespread attention from the international society. As an important component of the climate system, the water cycle is directly affected by climate change. Thus, it is very important to study the influences of climate change on the basin water cycle with respect to maintenance of healthy rivers, sustainable use of water resources, and sustainable socioeconomic development in the basin. In this study, by assessing the suitability of multiple General Circulation Models (GCMs) recommended by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Statistical Downscaling Model (SDSM) and Automated Statistical Downscaling model (ASD) were used to generate future climate change scenarios. These were then used to drive distributed hydrologic models (Variable Infiltration Capacity, Soil and Water Assessment Tool) for hydrological simulation of the Yangtze River and Yellow River basins, thereby quantifying the effects of climate change on the basin water cycle. The results showed that suitability assessment adopted in this study could effectively reduce the uncertainty of GCMs, and that statistical downscaling was able to greatly improve precipitation and temperature outputs in global climate mode. Compared to a baseline period (1961–1990), projected future periods (2046–2065 and 2081–2100) had a slightly decreasing tendency of runoff in the lower reaches of the Yangtze River basin. In particular, a significant increase in runoff was observed during flood seasons in the southeast part. However, runoff of the upper Yellow River basin decreased continuously. The results provide a reference for studying climate change in major river basins of China.

Eddy-driven jets are of importance in the ocean and atmosphere, and to a first approximation are governed by Rossby wave dynamics. This study addresses the time-dependent flux of fluid and potential vorticity between such a jet and an adjacent eddy, with specific regard to determining zonal and meridional wavenumber dependence. The flux amplitude in wavenumber space is obtained, which is easily computable for a given jet geometry, speed and latitude, and which provides instant information on the wavenumbers of the Rossby waves which maximize the flux. This new tool enables the quick determination of which modes are most influential in imparting fluid exchange, which in the long term will homogenize the potential vorticity between the eddy and the jet. The results are validated by computing backward- and forward-time finite-time Lyapunov exponent fields, and also stable and unstable manifolds; the intermingling of these entities defines the region of chaotic transport between the eddy and the jet. The relationship of all of these to the time-varying transport flux between the eddy and the jet is carefully elucidated. The flux quantification presented here works for general time-dependence, whether or not lobes (intersection regions between stable and unstable manifolds) are present in the mixing region, and is therefore also easily computable for wave packets consisting of infinitely many wavenumbers.