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Earth Sciences, Geophysics; geophysical signal processing; pattern recognition; temporal convolutional neural networks; seismology; deep learning; nuclear treaty monitoring
Online: 29 November 2018 (03:37:48 CET)
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The detection of seismic events at regional and teleseismic distances is critical to Nuclear Treaty Monitoring. Traditionally, detecting regional and teleseismic events has required the use of an expensive multi-instrument seismic array; however in this work, we present DeepPick, a novel seismic detection algorithm capable of array-like performance from a single trace. We achieve this directly, by training our single-trace detector against labeled events from an array catalog, and by utilizing a deep temporal convolutional neural network. The training data consists of all arrivals in the International Seismological Centre Catalog for seven seismic arrays over a five year window from 1 Jan 2010 to 1 Jan 2015, yielding a total training set of 608,362 detections. The test set consists of the same seven arrays over a one year window from 1 Jan 2015 to 1 Jan 2016. We report our results by training the algorithm on six of the arrays and testing it on the seventh, so as to demonstrate the transportability and generalization of the technique to new stations. Detection performance against this test set is outstanding. Fixing a type-I error rate of 1%, the algorithm achieves an overall recall rate of 73% on the 141,095 array beam picks in the test set, yielding 102,394 correct detections. This is more than 4 times the 23,259 detections found in the analyst-reviewed single-trace catalogs over the same period, and represents an 8dB improvement in detector sensitivity over current methods. These results demonstrate the potential of our algorithm to significantly enhance the effectiveness of the global treaty monitoring network.
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Earth Sciences, Geophysics; Common Middle Point; Propagator; Spatial Reflector; small-scale heterogeneities; diffraction/scattering imaging; finite-difference simulation; local grid refinement in time and space.
Online: 15 November 2018 (11:18:18 CET)
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Computation of Common Middle Point seismic sections and their subsequent time migration and diffraction imaging provides very important knowledge about the internal structure of 3D heterogeneous geological media and are key elements for successive geological interpretation. Full-scale numerical simulation, that computes all single shot seismograms, provides a full understanding of how the features of the image reflect the properties of the subsurface prototype. Unfortunately, this kind of simulations of 3D seismic surveys for realistic geological media needs huge computer resources, especially for simulation of seismic waves’ propagation through multiscale media like cavernous fractured reservoirs. In order to significantly reduce the query of computer resources we propose to model these 3D seismic cubes directly rather than the shot-by-shot simulation with subsequent CMP stacking. To do that we modify the well known "exploding reflectors principle" for 3D heterogeneous multiscale media by use of the finite-difference technique on the base of grids locally refined in time and space. To be able to simulate realistic models and acquisition we develop scalable parallel software, which needs reasonable computational costs.
Numerical results for simulation of Common Middle Points sections and their time migration are presented and discussed.
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Earth Sciences, Geophysics; finite-difference algorithm; magnetotelluric; 2D structures; modeling
Online: 2 November 2018 (14:03:46 CET)
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A finite-difference approach with non-uniform meshes was presented for simulating magnetotelluric responses in 2D structures. We presented the formulation of this scheme and gave some sights into its successful implementation, and compared finite-difference solution with known numerical results and simple analytical solutions. First, a homogeneous half-space model was tested and the finite-difference approach can provide very good accuracy for 2D magnetotelluric modeling. Then we compared to the analytical solutions for the two-layered model, the relative errors of the apparent resistivity and the impedance phase were both increased when the frequency was increased. In the end, we compare our finite-difference simulation results with COMMEMI 2D-0 model with the finite-element solutions. Both results are in close agreement to each other. These comparisons confirm the validity and reliability of our finite-difference algorithm.
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Earth Sciences, Geophysics; Climate sensitivity; scale invariance; long-range persistence; climate variability; emergent constrains
Online: 23 October 2018 (15:59:17 CEST)
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Earth's global surface temperature shows variability on an extended range of temporal scales and satisfies an emergent scaling symmetry. Recent studies indicate that scale invariance is not only a feature of the observed temperature fluctuations, but an inherent property of the temperature response to radiative forcing, and a principle that links the fast and slow climate responses. It provides a bridge between the decadal- and centennial-scale fluctuations in the instrumental temperature record, and the millennial-scale equilibration following perturbations in the radiative balance. In particular, the emergent scale invariance makes it possible to infer equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) from the observed relation between radiative forcing and global temperature in the instrumental era. This is verified in ensembles of Earth system models (ESMs), where the inferred values of ECS correlate strongly to estimates from idealized model runs. For the range of forcing data explored in this paper, the method gives best estimates of ECS between 2.3 and 3.4 K.
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Earth Sciences, Geophysics; higher-mode surface waves; dispersion curves; morphological component analysis; Radon transform
Online: 17 October 2018 (09:00:53 CEST)
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Extraction of high-resolution surface waves is essential in surface-wave survey. Because reflections usually interfere with surface waves on X component in a multicomponent seismic exploration, it is difficult to extract dispersion curves of surface waves. The situation goes more serious when the frequencies and velocities of higher-mode surface waves are close to those of PS-waves. A method for surface-wave extraction is proposed based on the morphological differences between reflections and surface waves. Frequency-domain high-resolution linear Radon transform (LRT) and time-domain high-resolution hyperbolic Radon transform (HRT) are used to represent surface waves and reflections respectively. Then, the sparse representation problem based on the morphological component analysis (MCA) is built and optimally solved to obtain high-fidelity surface waves. An advantage of our method is its ability to extract surface waves when their frequencies and velocities are close to those of reflections. Furthermore, results of synthetic and field examples confirm that the proposed method can attenuate the distortion of surface-wave dispersive energy caused by reflections, which contributes to extracting accurate dispersion curves.
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Ruth Mottram,
Sebastian B. Simonsen,
Synne Høyer Svendsen,
Valentina R. Barletta,
Louise Sandberg Sørensen,
Thomas Nagler,
Jan Wuite,
Andreas Groh,
Martin Horwarth,
Job Rosier,
Rene Forsberg
Earth Sciences, Geophysics; essential climate variables (ECV); climate change initiative (CCI); Greenland ice sheet; mass budget; cryosphere; sea level rise
Online: 16 October 2018 (07:53:22 CEST)
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The Greenland ice sheet is a major contributor to sea level rise, adding an estimated 0.47 +/− 0.23 mm/yr to global mean sea level between 1991 and 2015 (van den Broeke et al., 2016). Making sea level rise projections for the future and understanding the processes controlling current observed rates of sea level rise are crucially dependent on understanding the present-day state of the ice sheet. Here, we provide an overview of the current state of the mass budget of Greenland based on satellite gravimetry and remote sensing observations of surface elevation change, ice sheet velocity and calving front positions. We also combine these essential climate variables with a regional climate model (RCM) output from an ice sheet model (ISM) to gain insight into poorly understood ice sheet dynamical and surface mass processes. On average from 1992 to 2017 the ice sheet in some locations has lost up −2.65 m/yr in elevation based on ESA Radar altimetry analysis. Calving fronts have retreated all around Greenland since the 1990s and in only two out of 28 study locations have they remained stable. The locations of grounding lines at 5 key glaciers with floating ice tongues have remained stable over the observation period. However a detailed case study at Petermann glacier with an ice fracture model shows the sensitivity of these floating ice shelves to future climate change. GRACE gravimetric mass balance (GMB) data allows us to tie together disparate lines of evidence showing that Greenland has lost about 265 +/− 25 Gt/yr of ice over the period 2002 to 2015. RCM and ISM simulations show that surface mass processes dominate the overall Greenland ice sheet mass budget except for areas of fast ice sheet flow but marked differences between models and between models and observations indicate that not all processes are captured accurately, indicating areas of greater uncertainty and directions of future research for future sea level rise projections.
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Earth Sciences, Geophysics; multibeam echosounder; backscatter; multi-frequency; machine-learning
Online: 5 October 2018 (16:09:53 CEST)
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We propose a probabilistic graphical model for discriminative substrate characterization, to support geological and biological habitat mapping in aquatic environments. The model, called a fully connected conditional random field (CRF), is demonstrated using multispectral and monospectral acoustic backscatter from heterogeneous seafloors in Patricia Bay, British Columbia, and Bedford Basin, Nova Scotia. Unlike previously proposed discriminative machine learning algorithms, the CRF model considers both the relative backscatter magnitudes of different substrates and their relative proximities. The model therefore combines the statistical flexibility of a machine learning algorithm with an inherently spatial treatment of the substrate. The CRF model predicts substrates such that nearby locations with similar backscattering characteristics are likely to be in the same substrate class. The degree of proximity and allowable backscatter similarity are controlled by parameters that are learned from the data. CRF model results were evaluated against a popular generative model known as a Gaussian Mixture model that doesn't include spatial dependencies, only covariance between substrate backscattering response over different frequencies. Both models are used in conjunction with sparse bed observations/samples in a supervised classification. A detailed accuracy assessment, including a leave-one-out cross-validation analysis, was performed using both models. Using multispectral backscatter, the GMM model trained on 50% of the bed observations resulted in a 75% and 89% average accuracies in Patricia Bay and Bedford Basin, respectively. The same metrics for the CRF model were 78% and 95%. Further, the CRF model resulted in a 91% mean cross-validation accuracy across four substrate classes at Patricia Bay, and a 99.5% mean accuracy across three substrate classes at Bedford Basin, which suggest that the CRF model generalizes extremely well to new data. This analysis also showed that the CRF model was much less sensitive to the specific number and locations of bed observations than the generative model, owing to its ability to incorporate spatial autocorrelation in substrates. The CRF approach therefore may prove to be a powerful `spatially aware' alternative to other discriminative classifiers.
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Earth Sciences, Geophysics; ASTER instrument, stereo, digital elevation model, global database, optical sensor, water body detection.
Online: 3 October 2018 (17:01:08 CEST)
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A waterbody detection technique is an essential part of digital elevation model (DEM) generation to delineate land-water boundaries and set flattened elevations. This paper describes the technical methodology for improving the initial tile-based waterbody data that are created during production of the ASTER GDEM, because without improvement such tile-based waterbody data are not suitable for incorporating into the new ASTER GDEM Version 3. Waterbodies are classified into three categories: sea, lake, and river. For sea-waterbodies, the effect of sea ice is removed to better delineate sea shorelines in high latitude areas, because sea ice prevents accurate delineation of sea shorelines. For lake-waterbodies, the major part of the processing is to set the unique elevation value for each lake using a mosaic image that covers the entire lake area. Rivers present a unique challenge, because their elevations gradually step down from upstream to downstream. Initially, visual inspection is required to separate rivers from lakes. A stepwise elevation assignment, with a step of one meter, is carried out by manual or automated methods, depending on the situation. The ASTER GWBD product consists of a global set of 1º latitude-by-1º longitude tiles containing water body attribute and elevation data files in geographic latitude and longitude coordinates and with one arc second posting. Each tile contains 3601-by-3601 data points. All improved waterbody elevation data are incorporated into the ASTER GDEM to reflect the improved results.
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Earth Sciences, Geophysics; Novaya Zemlya; Altimetry; Gravity; Russian High Arctic; Glaciers and Ice Caps; Remote Sensing; Climate Change;
Online: 3 October 2018 (14:37:48 CEST)
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We examine the mass balance of the glaciers in the Novaya Zemlya Archipelago, located in the Russian High Arctic using time series of time-variable gravity from the NASA/DLR Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) mission, laser altimetry data from the NASA Ice Cloud and land Elevation Satellite (ICESat) mission, and radar altimetry data from the ESA CryoSat-2 mission. We present a new algorithm for detecting changes in glacier elevation from these satellite altimetry data and evaluate its performance in the case Novaya Zemlya by comparing the results with GRACE. We find that the mass loss of Novaya Zemlya increased from 10±5 Gt/yr over 2003-2009 to 14±4 Gt/yr over 2010-2016, with a brief period of near mass balance between 2009 and 2011. The results are consistent across the gravimetric and altimetric methods. Furthermore, the analysis of elevation change from CryoSat-2 indicates that 60\% of the mass loss occurs at low elevation, where thinning rates are highest. We also find that marine-terminating glaciers in Novaya Zemlya are thinning significantly faster than land-terminating glaciers, which indicates an important role of ice dynamics of marine-terminating glaciers. We posit that the glacier changes have been caused by changes in atmospheric and ocean temperatures. We find that the increase in mass loss after 2010 is associated with a warming in air temperatures, which increased the surface melt rates. There is no enough information on the ocean temperature at the front of the glaciers to conclude on the role of the ocean, but we posit that the temperature of subsurface ocean waters must have increased during the observation period.
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Earth Sciences, Geophysics; reservoir characterization; Bayesian inversion; A-priori statistical models
Online: 13 September 2018 (12:05:12 CEST)
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We discuss the influence played by different statistical models in the prediction of porosity and litho-fluid facies from logged and post-stack inverted acoustic impedance (Ip) values. We compare the inversion and classification results obtained under three different a-priori statistical assumptions: an analytical Gaussian distribution, an analytical Gaussian-mixture model and a non-parametric mixture distribution. The first model assumes Gaussian distributed porosity and Ip values, thus neglecting their facies-dependent behaviour caused by different lithologic and saturation conditions. Differently, the other two statistical models relate each component of the mixture to a specific litho-fluid facies, so that the facies-dependency of porosity and Ip values is taken into account. Blind well tests are used to validate the final predictions, whereas the analysis of the maximum-a-posteriori (MAP) solutions, the coverage ratio and the contingency analysis tools are used to quantitatively compare the inversion outcomes. This work points out that the correct choice of the statistical petrophysical model could be crucial in reservoir characterization studies. Indeed, for the investigated zone it turns out that the simple Gaussian model constitutes an oversimplified assumption, while the two mixture models provide more accurate results, although the non-parametric one yields slightly superior predictions with respect to the Gaussian-mixture assumption.
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Earth Sciences, Geophysics; undifferentiated and wheathered deposits, thin layers, vs characterization, MASW
Online: 6 September 2018 (13:16:56 CEST)
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The application of geophysical methods for the characterization of geomorphologic subsurface features has become very popular in recent years. Convential geophysical applications on undifferentiated and weathered slopes have been less effective. Multichannel analysis of surface waves (MASW) is a new hope for the solution of the problem. MASW methods was used to the first step in order to reconstruct the ancient eruption of Mount Samalas. MASW was applied to the remnants of ancient volcanic sediment on Lombok Island to determine the physical and physical characteristics of seismic subsurface features. This paper is also discussion the application's capabilities of the MASW method on undifferentiated and weathered volcanic deposits on the slope area and classified them. The results of the research show that MASW technique is powerful in characterizing and delineating the stratum of the layers of undifferentiated and weathered volcanic precipitation areas. MASW is able to predict subsurface structures, especially for shallow and thin layers and presenting site class information for internal structure (vertical resolution). Based on S wave velocity structure, undifferentiated and weathered volcanic layer, genes are classified into site class C, D, and E. In the future, this method will completed with combination of other geophysical method and parameters variation (frequency and spaces) for isopach mapping of volcanic sediment and then analysis of ancient volcanic eruption dynamics.
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Earth Sciences, Geophysics; gas hydrate; BSR; Mocha island; gas-phases
Online: 9 August 2018 (09:46:14 CEST)
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Recent studies have reported shallow and deep seep areas offshore Mocha island. Gas hydrate occurrences along the Chilean margin could explain seeps presence. Gas phases (gas hydrate and free gas) and geothermal gradients were estimated analysing two seismic sections. Close to Mocha island (up to 20 km) were detected high (up to 1900 m/s) and low (1260 m/s) velocities associated with high gas hydrate (up to 20 % of total volume) and free gas (up to 1.1% of total volume) concentrations respectively. These values are in agreement with a variable and high geothermal gradient (65 to 110 °C/km) related to high supply deep fluids canalised by faults and fractures. Faraway from Mocha island (more than 60 km), free gas concentrations decrease to 0.3 % of total volume and low geothermal gradient (from 35 to 60 °C/km) are associated with low fluids supply. Finally, we propose gas hydrate dissociation processes as the main supply source for seeps in the vicinity of Mocha island. These processes can be triggered by ancient sliding reported in literature.
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Earth Sciences, Geophysics; salt rock; creep; damage; fractional derivative; acoustic emission
Online: 30 July 2018 (11:15:31 CEST)
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The use of salt rock for underground radioactive waste disposal facilities requires a comprehensive analysis of creep-damage process in salt rock. A computer-controlled creep setup is employed to carry out a creep test of salt rock lasted as long as 359 days under a constant uniaxial stress. The AE space-time evolution and energy releasing characteristics during creep test are studied in the meantime. A new creep-damage model is proposed on the basis of fractional derivative by combining the AE statistical regularity. It indicates that the AE data in non-decay creep process of salt rock can be divided into three stages. Furthermore, the parameters of new creep-damage model are determined by Quasi-Newton method. The fitting analysis suggests that the creep-damage model based on fractional derivative in this paper provides a precise description of full creep regions in salt rock.
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Earth Sciences, Geophysics; Lake Van; Van earthquake; aftershock hypocenters; rupture complexity; azimuthal distribution; aftershock clusters; microseismicity
Online: 28 June 2018 (11:26:31 CEST)
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This study presents an analysis of the spatial and temporal distribution of the two large destructive earthquakes that occurred in Lake Van area on October 23, and November 9, 2011, together with the azimuth-dependent distribution of the seismic activity and microseismicity clusters after the mainshocks, associated with the complex rupture processes of their aftershock sequence. The sequence began with the magnitude Mw 7.1 earthquake of 23 October and a second destructive earthquake of Mw 5.6. The aftershock sequences of the two mainshocks were linked to the local crustal faults beneath Lake Van area, followed successively and produced unusually intense activity and significant damage in the area. The main purposes of this study are to document the spatial and temporal distribution and evolution of the October 23, 2011 aftershock hypocenters and the azimuth-dependent distribution of seismic activity, and to understand the spatial and temporal character of the aftershock sequence using the distributional and evolutional patterns of the aftershock hypocenters. A total of 10,000 aftershocks were obtained from seismic data with a high signal-to-noise ratio over collected over three years from October 23, 2011 to March 2014. These aftershocks were plotted for the time periods from November 2011 through March 2012 to March 2014 and ≈ 5000 aftershocks were retained in the depth versus distance cross-sections to detect the clusters in the first step of study (November 2011–March 2012). The focal depth distribution of the aftershock clusters, the migration of hypocenter activity and microseismicity clusters were analyzed and the distributional patterns of the detected clusters were assessed using the geometric distribution of the aftershock hypocenters. The spatial and temporal distribution of aftershocks reveal interesting key features of the deep rupture complexity of the Van earthquake: (1) most prominent aftershocks have been located in the upper crust at depths shallower than 10 km beneath ruptured area, indicating that the upper crust is brittle and seismogenic; (2) two spatial clusters have been detected at 8-10 km depths and the upward extrapolation of these clusters intersects with faults; the main cluster (60 km wide) bounded by inferred reverse faults (f3 and f4) and the central cluster (25–30 km wide) bounded by faults (f1 and f2); (3) these spatial clusters form the largest volumetric pattern of the conical-shaped cluster at depths of about 25–30 km of the azimuth-dependent rotational projections, suggesting azimuthal distributions of deep rupture characteristics; and (4) the strongest temporal cluster of microseismicity derived from temporal distribution of aftershocks has been detected within an area of about 2.5–3.0 km2 and it is spatially observed at 20 km depth within the central cluster, suggesting progressive failure of the adjacent patches of possible fault.
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Earth Sciences, Geophysics; Montenegro; cadastre; geography; geodesy; geoinformatics; syllabus for cartography; cartographical heritage
Online: 26 June 2018 (12:07:05 CEST)
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This paper deals with an analysis of cartographical studies, the real estate cadastre, and its practical implementation, as well as the introduction of cartography into different education modules in university-level studies in Montenegro. There is a discussion of the development, production, and creativity in the fields of cartography and real estate cadastre over time, cartographical projection, scientific results, and recent changes such as advanced computer- and satellite-based technologies, GIS, cartographical visualization, and digital cartography. The impact of these changes on cartographical studies at the University of Montenegro is considered. Particular attention is given to analyses of cartography and the cadastre in institutions, and their connection with the development of cartography teaching modules of Geography, Geodesy and Geoinformatics at the University of Montenegro. The integrated analysis also covers the results of the questionnaire and the significance of the geo-topographical and cartographical heritage of Montenegro, with the aim of carrying these out. It can be seen that the tasks solved by using maps have tended to become more complex and that the cartographical methods employed in this have been always directed towards Montenegro’s most prominent and most urgent problems, including those that appear in the area of education.
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Earth Sciences, Geophysics; surface albedo; remote sensing; geostationary satellites; climate data records; essential climate variables; near real-time; operational processing; climate; land surface modeling
Online: 26 June 2018 (10:31:10 CEST)
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Land surface albedo determines the splitting of downwelling solar radiation into components which are either reflected back to the atmosphere or absorbed by the surface. Land surface albedo is an important variable for the climate community and therefore was defined by the Global Climate Observing System (GCOS) as an Essential Climate Variable (ECV). Within the scope of the Satellite Application Facility for Land Surface Analysis (LSA SAF) of EUMETSAT, a near-real time (NRT) daily albedo product was developed in the last decade from observations provided by the SEVIRI instrument on board the geostationary satellites of the Meteosat Second Generation (MSG) series. In this study we present a new collection of albedo satellite products based on the same satellite data. The MSG Ten-day ALbedo (MTAL) product incorporates MSG observations over 31 days with a frequency of NRT production of 10 days. The MTAL collection is more dedicated to climate analysis studies compared to the daily albedo that was initially designed for the weather prediction community. For this reason, a homogeneous reprocessing of MTAL was done in 2018 to generate a Climate Data Record (CDR). The resulting product is called MTAL-R and has been made available to the community in addition to the NRT version of the MTAL product which has been available for several years. The retrieval algorithm behind the MTAL products comprises three distinct modules: one for atmospheric correction, one for daily inversion of a semi-empirical model of the bidirectional reflectance distribution function, and one for monthly composition that also determines surface albedo values. In this study the MTAL-R CDR is compared to ground surface measurements and concomitant albedo products collected by sensors on-board polar-orbiting satellites (SPOT-VGT and MODIS). We show that MTAL-R meets the quality requirements if MODIS or SPOT-VGT are considered as reference. This work leads to 14 years of production of geostationary land surface albedo products with a guaranteed continuity in the LSA SAF for the future years with the forthcoming third generation of European geostationary satellites.
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Earth Sciences, Geophysics; SBAS; landslide; danba; time-series; displacement
Online: 14 June 2018 (08:44:11 CEST)
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Landslide is a sliding movement of rock mass, debris and soil along the slope under the action of gravity. Small Baseline Subset (SBAS) is an established method for the investigation and monitoring of landslide moments. This study focuses on monitoring the long-temporal displacement of mountainous terrain in Danba County, Sichuan Province via SBAS technique, based on 31 scenes of L-band ALOS/PALSAR data from Feb. 2007 to Oct. 2010.The results show that the largest velocity rates in LOS direction are ±120 mm/yr and maximum accumulated displacement is up to -300, which indicates fast movement of the mountainous terrain during the observation time. These results get good consistency against the results of previous study. This demonstrates the strong potential of SBAS technique for monitoring the landslides geohazard.
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Earth Sciences, Geophysics; urban catchment; radar reflectivity; rainfall rate; Z-R relationship; SWMM model; flow simulation
Online: 1 June 2018 (07:46:00 CEST)
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In this study, regression analyses were used to find a relationship between the rain gauge rainfall rate R and radar reflectivity Z for the urban catchment of the Służewiecki Stream in Warsaw, Poland. Rainfall totals for 18 events which were measured at two rainfall stations were used for these analyses. Various methods for determining calculational values of radar reflectivity in reference to specific rainfall cells with 1-km resolution within an event duration were applied. The influence of each of these methods on the Z-R relationship was analyzed. The correction coefficient for data from the SRI (Surface Rainfall Intensity) product was established, in which the values of rainfall rate are calculated based on parameters a and b determined by Marshall and Palmer. Relatively good agreement between measured and estimated rainfall totals for the analyzed events was obtained using the Z-R relationships as well as the correction coefficient determined in this study. Rainfall depths estimated from radar data for two selected events were used to simulate flow hydrographs in the catchment using the SWMM (Storm Water Management Model) hydrodynamic model. Different scenarios were applied to investigate the stream response to changes in rainfall depths, in which the data both for 2 existing as well as 64 virtual rain gauges assigned to appropriate rainfall cells in the catchment were included.
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Earth Sciences, Geophysics; hiatus; attribution; volcanic forcing; solar forcing; anthropogenic forcing; AMO; ENSO; multiple regression; long-memory response
Online: 25 May 2018 (14:49:51 CEST)
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The main features of the instrumental global mean surface temperature (GMST) are reasonably well described by a simple linear response model driven by anthropogenic, volcanic and solar forcing. This model acts as a linear long-memory filter of the forcing signal. The physical interpretation of this filtering is the delayed response due to the thermal inertia of the ocean. This description is considerably more accurate if El Ni\~{n}o Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO) are regarded as additional forcing of the global temperature and hence subject to the same filtering as the other forcing components. By considering these as predictors in a linear regression scheme, more than 92\% of the variance in the instrumental GMST over the period 1870-2017 is explained by this model, and in particular all features of the 1998 -- 2015 hiatus, including its death. While the more prominent pauses during 1870 -- 1915 and 1940 -- 1970 can be attributed to clustering in time of strong volcanic eruptions, the recent hiatus is an unremarkable phenomenon that is attributed to ENSO and a small contribution from solar activity.
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Earth Sciences, Geophysics; Generalized Moments Method; time series; submarine volcano; Nisyros
Online: 22 May 2018 (11:09:41 CEST)
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The morphology and the activity of a submarine caldera, Avyssos, at the northern part of Nisyros volcano in the South Aegean Sea (Greece), has been studied by means of remotely operated underwater vehicle dives. The recorded time series of temperature and conductivity over the submarine volcano have been analyzed in terms of the Generalized Moments Method. The findings of the mathematical analysis shed light on the volcanic activity, but also on the morphology (shape) of the submarine volcano. The conductivity time series indicates the volcano is at rest in agreement with other types of observations. On the other hand, temperature fluctuations, which in general describe a multifractal process, show that the submarine caldera operates as an open system that interacts with its surroundings. This type of analysis can be used as an indicator for the state of activity and the morphological structure (closed or open system) of a submarine volcano.
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Earth Sciences, Geophysics;
Online: 8 May 2018 (15:34:08 CEST)
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This paper examines the tropical cyclone (TC) activity in Solomon Islands (SI) using the best track data from Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre Brisbane and Regional Specialized Meteorological Centre Nadi. The long-term trend analysis showed that the frequency of TCs has been decreasing in this region while average TC intensity becomes strong. Then, the datasets were classified according to the phase of Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) and the index of El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) provided by Bureau of Meteorology. The MJO has sufficiently influenced TC activity in the SI region with more genesis occurring in phases 6-8, in which the lower outgoing longwave radiation indicates enhanced convective activity. In contrast, TC genesis occurs less frequently in phases 1, 2, and 5. As for the influence of ENSO, more TCs are generated in El Nino period. The TC genesis locations during El Nino (La Nina) period were significantly displaced to the north (south) over SI region. TCs generated during El Nino condition tended to be strong. This paper also argues the modulation in terms of seasonal climatic variability of large-scale environmental conditions such as sea surface temperature, low level relative vorticity, vertical wind shear, and upper level divergence.
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Earth Sciences, Geophysics; fracture density; double-layer model; unconventional reservoirs; multicomponent seismic; shear-wave splitting
Online: 16 April 2018 (11:33:54 CEST)
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Fracture density, a critical parameter of unconventional reservoirs, can be used to evaluate potential of unconventional reservoirs and location of production wells. Many technologies, such as amplitude variation with offset and azimuth (AVOA) technology, vertical seismic profiling (VSP) technology, and multicomponent seismic technology, are generally used to predict fracture of reservoirs. they can qualitatively predict fracture by analyzing seismic attributes, including seismic wave amplitudes, seismic wave velocities, which are sensitive to fracture. However, it is important to quantitatively describe fracture of reservoirs. In this study, based on a double-layer model, the relationships between fracture density and the double-layer model’s physical parameters, such as velocity of fast shear-wave, velocity of slow shear-wave, and density, were established, and then a powerful quantitative prediction method for fracture density was proposed dramatically. Afterwards, the Hudson model for crack was used to test the applicability of the method. The result shown that the quantitative prediction method for fracture density can be applied suitable to the Hudson model for crack. Finally, the result of validation models indicated that the method can predict fracture density effective, in which absolute relative deviation (ARD) were less than 5% and root-mean-square error (RMSE) was 4.88×10-3.
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Earth Sciences, Geophysics; seismic hazard; openquake; GMPE; basin-induced amplification; SPECFEM2D
Online: 4 January 2018 (10:04:35 CET)
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We use earthquake ground motion modelling via Ground Motion Prediction Equations (GMPEs) and numerical simulation of seismic waves to consider the effects of site amplification and basin resonance in Jakarta, the capital city of Indonesia. While spectral accelerations at short periods are sensitive to near-surface conditions (i.e., Vs30), our results suggest that, for basins as deep as Jakarta’s, available GMPEs cannot be relied upon to accurately estimate the effect of basin depth on ground motions at long periods (>1 s). Amplitudes at such long periods are influenced by entrapment of seismic waves in the basin, resulting in longer duration of strong ground motion, and interference between incoming and reflected waves as well as focusing at basin edges may amplify seismic waves. In order to simulate such phenomena in detail, a basin model derived from a previous study is used as a computational domain for deterministic earthquake scenario modeling in a 2-dimensional cross-section. A Mw 9.0 megathrust, a Mw 6.5 crustal thrust and a Mw 7.0 instraslab earthquake are chosen as scenario events that pose credible threats to Jakarta, and the interactions with the basin of seismic waves generated by these events were simulated. The highest PGV amplifications are recorded at sites near the middle of the basin and near its southern edge, with maximum amplifications of PGV in the horizontal component of 200% for the crustal, 600% for the megathrust and 335% for the deep intraslab earthquake scenario, respectively. We find that the levels of ground motion response spectral acceleration fall below those of the 2012 Indonesian building Codes's design response spectrum for short periods (< 1 s), but closely approach or may even exceed these levels for longer periods.
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Earth Sciences, Geophysics; ground penetrating radar; microwave tomography; time-reversal technique
Online: 23 October 2017 (11:08:34 CEST)
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This paper provides a comparative study between microwave tomography and synthetic time-reversal imaging techniques as applied to ground penetrating radar (GPR) surveys. The comparison is carried out by processing experimental data collected at a controlled test site, with various types of buried targets at given subsurface depths and representative soil conditions. It is shown that the two techniques allow us to obtain complementary information about position, depth and size of the targets from a single GPR survey.
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Earth Sciences, Geophysics; EGS; crustal permeability; finite element flow modelling; crustal wellbore temperatures; wellbore injection; well logs; well core
Online: 18 September 2017 (12:01:16 CEST)
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We use Matlab 3D finite element fluid flow/transport modelling to simulate localized wellbore temperature events of order 0.05-0.1oC logged in Fennoscandia basement rock at ~ 1.5km depths. The temperature events are approximated as steady-state heat transport due to fluid draining from the crust into the wellbore via naturally occurring fracture-connectivity structures. Flow simulation is based on the empirics of spatially-correlated fracture-connectivity fluid flow widely attested by well-log, well-core, and well-production data. Matching model wellbore-centric radial temperature profiles to a 2D analytic expression for steady-state radial heat transport with Peclet number Pe ≡ r0φv0/D (r0 = wellbore radius, v0 = Darcy velocity at r0, φ = ambient porosity, D = rock-water thermal diffusivity), gives Pe ~ 10-15 for fracture-connectivity flow intersecting the well, and Pe ~ 0 for ambient crust. Darcy flow for model Pe ~ 10 at radius ~ 10 meters from the wellbore gives permeability estimate κ ~ 0.02Darcy for flow driven by differential fluid pressure between least principal crustal stress pore pressure and hydrostatic wellbore pressure. Model temperature event flow permeability κm ~ 0.02Darcy is related to well-core ambient permeability κ ~ 1µDarcy by empirical poroperm relation κm ~ κ exp(αmφ) for φ ~ 0.01 and αm ~ 1000. Our modelling of wellbore temperature events calibrates the concept of reactivating fossilized fracture-connectivity flow for EGS permeability stimulation of basement rock.
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Earth Sciences, Geophysics; Northern Papua; Subduction; Seismicity
Online: 14 April 2017 (05:55:31 CEST)
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Papua is one of part in Indonesia which is the geology research of that place isn’t developed and limited. It causes the seismotectonic of Papua hasn’t been known. WinITDB was used to determine the dip angle plate which was on the north part of Papua. The determination of angle was done through seismicity’s cross section analysis in the area. To show that seismicity, earthquake history data that ever occurred in the area is needed. The result on the seismicity’s cross section of plane A–A’, was confluence by two plates with angle 150° against horizontal on the depth up to ±68 km. On the seismicity’s cross section of plane B–B’ had angle 135° against horizontal on the ±82 km depth. On the plane C–C’ seismicity’s cross section, was confluence of two plate which located between -1,77°S until -4,97°S subducted until 171 km depth on 1,38°N - 4,97°S. It proved that subduction characteristic in the northern Papua which was Australia continent plate subducted to north, followed by collision and the Pacific plate subduction on New Guinea. It is also confirmed by focus mechanism analysis which showed the earthquake activities are controlled by the not really deep active fault.
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Earth Sciences, Geophysics; hyporheic zone; Darcian flux; channel bend; vertical hydraulic conductivity; stream topography; grain size; porosity
Online: 26 February 2017 (10:07:31 CET)
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Channel bends are one of the most important characteristic features of natural streams. These bends often create the conditions for a hyporheic zone, which has been recognized as a critical component of stream ecosystems. The streambed vertical hydraulic conductivity (Kv), vertical hydraulic gradient (VHG) and Darcian flux (DF) in the hyporheic zone were estimated at 61 locations along a channel bend of the Beiluo River during July 2015 and January 2016. All the streambed attributes showed great spatial variability along the channel bend. Both upward fluxes and downward fluxes occurred during the two test periods, most of studied stream sections were controlled by downwelling, indicating stream water discharge into the subsurface. The average downward flux was higher at the downstream side than at the upstream side of the channel bend, especially in July 2015. The distribution of streambed sediment grain size has a significant influence on the variability of Kv; high percentages of silt and clay sediments generally lead to low Kv values. Higher Kv at the depositional left bank at the upstream site shifted toward the erosional right bank at the downstream site, with Kv values positively correlated with the water depth. This study suggested that the variabilities of Kv and VHG were influenced by the stream geomorphology and that the distribution of Kv was inversely related, to a certain extent, to the distribution of VHG across the channel bend. Kv and VHG were found to have opposite effects on the DF, and the close relationship between Kv and DF indicated that the water fluxes were mainly controlled by Kv.
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Earth Sciences, Geophysics; precipitation deficit; precipitation surplus; standardized precipitation index SPI; forecast; verification
Online: 4 November 2016 (13:39:29 CET)
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In the paper the verification of forecasts of precipitation conditions measured by the standardized precipitation index SPI is presented. For the verification of categorical forecasts a contingency table was used. Standard verification measures were used for the SPI value forecast. The 30 day SPI moved every 10 days by 10 days was calculated in 2013-2015 from April to September on the basis of precipitation data from 35 meteorological stations in Poland. Predictions of the 30 day SPI were created in which precipitation was forecasted in the next 10 days (the SPI 10-day forecast) and 20 days (the SPI 20-day forecast). Both for the 10 and 20 days, the forecasts were skewed towards drier categories at the expense of wet categories. There was a good agreement between observed and 10-day forecast categories of precipitation. Less agreement is obtained for 20-day forecasts – these forecasts evidently “over-dry” the assessment of precipitation anomalies. The 10-day SPI value forecast accuracy is acceptable, whereas for the 20-day forecast is unsatisfactory. Both for the SPI categorical and the SPI value forecast, the 10-day SPI forecast is reliable and the 20-day forecast should be accepted with reservation and used with caution.
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Earth Sciences, Geophysics; Qinghai-Tibet Plateau; geoid anomaly inversion; crustal and upper mantle density construction
Online: 15 October 2016 (08:25:13 CEST)
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As the most active plateau on the Earth, the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau has a complex crust-mantle structure. Knowledge of the distribution of such a structure provides information for understanding the underlying geodynamic processes. We obtains a three-dimensional density model of crustal and upper mantle beneath Qinghai-Tibet plateau and its surrounding areas from the residual geoid anomalies using the Earth Gravitational Model (EGM) 2008. We estimate a refined density model by iterations, using an initial density contrast model. We confirm that the EGM2008 mission products can be used to constrain the crust-mantle density structures. Our major findings are: (1). At 300-400 km depth, high-D anomalies terminate around Jinsha River Suture (JRS) in the central TP, suggesting that the Indian plate has been reached over the Bangong Nujiang Suture (BNS) and almost reach to the JRS. (2). On the eastern TP, low-D anomalies at the depth of 0-300 km together with high-D anomalies at 400-670 km further verified the current eastward subduction of Indian plate. The ongoing subduction provides forces to the occurrences of frequent earthquakes and volcano. (3). At 600 km depth, low-D anomalies inside the TP illustrate the existence of hot weak material beneath there, contributing to the external material inward-thrusting.
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Earth Sciences, Geophysics; climate change; water cycle; downscaling; hydrological model; Yangtze River; Yellow River; Tibetan Plateau
Online: 8 October 2016 (11:29:05 CEST)
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Climate change is a global issue that draws widespread attention from the international society. As an important component of the climate system, the water cycle is directly affected by climate change. Thus, it is very important to study the influences of climate change on the basin water cycle with respect to maintenance of healthy rivers, sustainable use of water resources, and sustainable socioeconomic development in the basin. In this study, by assessing the suitability of multiple General Circulation Models (GCMs) recommended by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Statistical Downscaling Model (SDSM) and Automated Statistical Downscaling model (ASD) were used to generate future climate change scenarios. These were then used to drive distributed hydrologic models (Variable Infiltration Capacity, Soil and Water Assessment Tool) for hydrological simulation of the Yangtze River and Yellow River basins, thereby quantifying the effects of climate change on the basin water cycle. The results showed that suitability assessment adopted in this study could effectively reduce the uncertainty of GCMs, and that statistical downscaling was able to greatly improve precipitation and temperature outputs in global climate mode. Compared to a baseline period (1961–1990), projected future periods (2046–2065 and 2081–2100) had a slightly decreasing tendency of runoff in the lower reaches of the Yangtze River basin. In particular, a significant increase in runoff was observed during flood seasons in the southeast part. However, runoff of the upper Yellow River basin decreased continuously. The results provide a reference for studying climate change in major river basins of China.
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Earth Sciences, Geophysics; maximum flux; midlatitude cyclones; oceanic jets; chaotic transport
Online: 22 July 2016 (05:17:29 CEST)
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Eddy-driven jets are of importance in the ocean and atmosphere, and to a first approximation are governed by Rossby wave dynamics. This study addresses the time-dependent flux of fluid and potential vorticity between such a jet and an adjacent eddy, with specific regard to determining zonal and meridional wavenumber dependence. The flux amplitude in wavenumber space is obtained, which is easily computable for a given jet geometry, speed and latitude, and which provides instant information on the wavenumbers of the Rossby waves which maximize the flux. This new tool enables the quick determination of which modes are most influential in imparting fluid exchange, which in the long term will homogenize the potential vorticity between the eddy and the jet. The results are validated by computing backward- and forward-time finite-time Lyapunov exponent fields, and also stable and unstable manifolds; the intermingling of these entities defines the region of chaotic transport between the eddy and the jet. The relationship of all of these to the time-varying transport flux between the eddy and the jet is carefully elucidated. The flux quantification presented here works for general time-dependence, whether or not lobes (intersection regions between stable and unstable manifolds) are present in the mixing region, and is therefore also easily computable for wave packets consisting of infinitely many wavenumbers.