ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201708.0086.v1
Subject: Mathematics & Computer Science, Other Keywords: seasonality; forecasting; pull and push models; denoising
Online: 25 August 2017 (08:21:40 CEST)
In this paper we develop a forecasting algorithm for recurrent patterns in consumer demand. We study this problem in two different settings: pull and push models. We discuss several features of the algorithm concerning sampling, periodic approximation, denoising and forecasting.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202103.0025.v1
Subject: Life Sciences, Biochemistry Keywords: Influenza; epidemiology; spatiotemporal; seasonality; global; transmission; infectious disease
Online: 1 March 2021 (14:05:52 CET)
Influenza epidemics in temperate regions display dynamics that are characterized by pronounced seasonal peaks during the winter. The general lack of influenza cases during the off-season may result from the virus physically disappearing at the end of the season, in which case it must be imported annually. Alternatively, it may result from persistent asymptomatic carriers or unnoticed local transmission chains that develop into local epidemics as conditions become conducive. Here I attempt to understand these differing explanations by analyzing the global distribution of the four major subtypes that comprise influenza over a period of 18 years based on FluNet data, the surveillance network and database compiled by the WHO, and the NCBI influenza data resource, a repository of relevant genetic information. Examining the annual proportion of each subtype, I find considerable variations in subtype annual proportions between the regions. Moreover, I find that seasonal influenza subtypes can remain confined to specific temperate regions, without showing measurable global presence. These results indicate that although largely undetected during the off-season, influenza is likely to persist locally, and imply a ‘local-global’ model where annual influenza epidemics are a mixture of local strains undergoing reactivation together with an influx of global variants.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202104.0700.v1
Subject: Earth Sciences, Atmospheric Science Keywords: Community resilience; risk reduction; disaster response; preparedness; seasonality in emergency
Online: 27 April 2021 (10:11:05 CEST)
People living in areas of significant seismic risk seldom undertake sufficient preparations to safeguard their family. This is most problematic in remote communities such as those along the Dead Sea Fault, Israel, where self-reliance is a key factor in coping with disasters. To facilitate individual and familial involvement in earthquake preparedness in remote areas, we designed a tool for self-assessment of risk and preparedness. The personalized risk assessment is based on national hazard and building standards, and on personal input regarding structure characteristics. The risk and preparedness evaluations enhance awareness and provide immediate feedback to help users improve familial preparedness. Spatial analysis of the data collected is used to form high-resolution maps that expose specific challenges for emergency response. A study conducted in the town of Mitzpe Ramon exposed neighborhoods with relatively high risk of damage and low preparedness. Integrating these results with seasonal stress-factors such as peak tourism and extreme weather, provides new and important insights on the ability of the local community and emergency forces to cope with multi-hazard situations. Analysis of the heterogeneous distribution of expected hardship within a community should be implemented world-wide to improve risk mitigation.
REVIEW | doi:10.20944/preprints202007.0456.v1
Subject: Keywords: COVID-19; environmental influences; humidity; SARS-CoV-2; seasonality; temperature
Online: 20 July 2020 (07:41:44 CEST)
SARS-CoV-2 virus infections in humans were first reported in December 2019, the boreal winter. The resulting COVID-19 pandemic was declared by the WHO in March 2020. By July 2020 COVID-19 is present in 213 countries and territories, with over 12 million confirmed cases and over half a million attributed deaths. Knowledge of other viral respiratory diseases suggests that the transmission of SARS-CoV-2 could be modulated by seasonally-varying environmental factors such as temperature and humidity. Many studies on the environmental sensitivity of COVID-19 are appearing online, and some have been published in peer-reviewed journals. Initially, these studies raised the hypothesis that climatic conditions would subdue the viral transmission rate in places entering the boreal summer and that southern hemisphere countries would experience enhanced disease. For the latter, the COVID-19 peak would coincide with the peak of the influenza season, increasing misdiagnosis and placing an additional burden on health systems. In this review, we assess the evidence that environmental drivers are a significant factor in the trajectory of the COVID-19 pandemic, globally and regionally. We critically assessed 42 peer-reviewed and 80 preprint publications that met qualifying criteria. Since the disease has been prevalent for only half a year in the northern, and a quarter of a year in the southern hemisphere, datasets capturing a full seasonal cycle in one locality are not yet available. Analyses based on space-for-time substitutions, i.e. using data from climatically distinct locations as a surrogate for seasonal progression, have been inconclusive. The reported studies present a strong northern bias. Socio-economic conditions peculiar to the ‘Global South’ have been omitted as confounding variables, thereby weakening evidence of environmental signals. We explore why research to date has failed to show convincing evidence for environmental modulation of COVID-19, and discuss directions for future research. We conclude that the evidence thus far suggests a weak modulation effect, currently overwhelmed by the scale and rate of the spread of COVID-19. Seasonally-modulated transmission, if it exists, will be more evident in 2021 and subsequent years.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201912.0376.v1
Subject: Medicine & Pharmacology, Ophthalmology Keywords: dry eye; tear break-up time; intra-ocular pressure; seasonality
Online: 29 December 2019 (09:17:39 CET)
Purpose: To evaluate seasonal variation in intra-ocular pressure (IOP) with and without short tear break-up time (SBUT, BUT ≤ 5 s). Methods: This study enrolled 176 patients who visited one of six eye clinics in Japan for IOP measurement at every season. The mean patient age was 67.9 years, including 79 males. We compared the seasonal variation in IOP (mean ± SD) across spring (Mar-May), summer (Jun-Aug), fall (Sep-Nov), and winter (Dec-Feb). Results: The IOP (mmHg) in winter and summer, respectively, was 12.8 ± 3.7 and 12.8 ± 3.1 for non-glaucoma patients without SBUT (n = 47, P = 0.964), 14.8 ± 3.4 and 13.3 ± 3.4 for non-glaucoma patients with SBUT (n = 57, P < 0.001), 14.3 ± 3.2 and 14.1 ± 3.4 for glaucoma patients without SBUT (n = 36, P = 0.489), and 13.3 ± 3.0 and 11.6 ± 2.9 for glaucoma with SBUT (n = 36, P < 0.001). Seasonal variation was largest across the seasons in the glaucoma with SBUT group, and the magnitude of seasonal variation correlated with BUT (β = 0.228, P = 0.003). Conclusions: Seasonal variation tended to be larger in patients with SBUT than those without SBUT.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201809.0112.v1
Subject: Earth Sciences, Environmental Sciences Keywords: tropical pasture seasonality; soil carbon dioxide emission; irrigation management strategy
Online: 6 September 2018 (06:13:09 CEST)
This study explores the effect of seasonality on soil carbon efflux and pasture growth based on field and lysimeter experiments during summer-fall and winter-spring in two years. Focus is also pointed on irrigation strategies to alleviate the crop response to seasonal fluctuations in precipitation and surface temperatures. Soil respiration, soil and air temperature, leaf photosynthesis, plant dry weight and leaf area index were quantified and analyzed. It has been found significant differences in the CO2 efflux between the two growing season. Emission of soil CO2 allowed to characterize and to prioritize the temperature and rain influence in seasonal brachiaria response. During the seasons, the transient variation of CO2 efflux was highly correlated with rainfall (r = 0.87, P < 0.05), and poorly correlated with soil temperatures (r = 0.5, P < 0.05). The CO2 efflux and plant response to different level of reposition of evapotranspiration demonstrated that irrigation during fall mitigates the reduction of growth conditioned by drying soil and the lower temperatures. The lower temperatures are limiting only when the soil moisture is below 32% of the field capacity. Thus, we propose to keep the soil moisture around 50% during the fall as a key practices for mitigating the effect of seasonality and its intensification with the climate change, even more if added to management routine practices the soil and water conservation.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201611.0019.v1
Subject: Earth Sciences, Atmospheric Science Keywords: satellite; rainfall; estimates; rain gauge; uncertainties; topography; seasonality; East Africa
Online: 2 November 2016 (09:25:04 CET)
Accurate and consistent rainfall observations are vital for climatological studies in support of better planning and decision making. However, estimation of accurate spatial rainfall is limited by sparse rain gauge distributions. Satellite rainfall products can thus potentially play a role in spatial rainfall estimation but their skill and uncertainties need to be under-stood across spatial-time scales. This study aimed at assessing the temporal and spatial performance of seven satellite products (TARCAT (Tropical Applications of Meteorology using SATellite and ground-based observations (TAMSAT) African Rainfall Climatology And Time series), Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation with Station data (CHIRPS), Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM-3B43), Climate Prediction Center (CPC) Morphing (CMORPH), the Precipitation Estimation from Remotely Sensed Information using Artificial Neural Networks- Climate Data Record (PERSIANN-CDR), CPC Merged Analysis of Precipitation (CMAP) and Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) using gridded (0.05o) rainfall data over East Africa for 15 years(1998-2012). The products’ error distributions were qualitatively compared with large scale horizontal winds (850 mb) and elevation patterns with respect to corresponding rain gauge data for each month during the ‘long’ (March-May) and ‘short’ (October-December) rainfall seasons. For validation only rainfall means extracted from 284 rain gauge stations were used, from which qualitative analysis using continuous statistics of Root Mean Squared Difference, Standard deviations, Correlations, coefficient of determinations (from scatter plots) were used to evaluate the products’ performance. Results revealed rainfall variability dependence on wind flows and modulated by topographic influences. The products’ errors showed seasonality and dependent on rainfall intensity and topography. Single sensor and coarse resolution products showed lowest performance on high ground areas. All the products showed low skills in retrieving rainfall during ‘short’ rainfall season when orographic processes were dominant. CHIRPS, CMORPH and TRMM performed well, with TRMM showing the best performance in both seasons. There is need to reduce products’ errors before applications.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201711.0184.v2
Subject: Chemistry, Food Chemistry Keywords: Cistus incanus; Strandja; antioxidants; polyphenols; flavonoids; seasonality; buds; hard-coated seeds
Online: 2 January 2018 (11:21:12 CET)
The purpose of the present study is survey of extraction conditions and exploring antioxidant potential of the non-traditional for the Bulgarian ethno-medicine wild herb Cistus incanus widespread in Strandja Mountain. The influence of the extraction time (0–500 min) and solvent composition (0–50% ethanol in water) on the polyphenols, flavonoids yields and on antioxidant capacity of the extracts of leaves, stalks (wood parts) and buds mixture were studied. The antioxidant capacity (AOC) was evaluated by use of scavenging assays of 2,2-diphenyl-1-picrylhydrazyl (DPPH) radicals. Total polyphenol and flavonoid contents were quantified using UV–vis spectrometry. Optimal yield of desired components has been obtained with 30% ethanol in water solvent at 390th min extraction time. In addition, the influence of the seasonality (winter and summer Cistus incanus), and of the different areal parts - hard-coated seeds; buds, and mixture of leaves and stalks of the wild plant on the presence of polyphenols, flavonoids and AOC were investigated. Present work revealed the high values of the polyphenols, flavonoids, the high AOC not only in the summer leaves, but also found in the winter leaves, hard-coated seeds, buds and stalks. Based on the obtained results the Cistus incanus from Strandja mountain could be a new excellent source of natural antioxidants in food and pharmaceutical industries.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201701.0135.v1
Subject: Medicine & Pharmacology, Nutrition Keywords: nutritional intervention; menopausal women; vitamin D3-fortified yogurts; serum 25OHD dose response; seasonality interaction
Online: 31 January 2017 (12:01:31 CET)
A 24 week-controlled trial was conducted in menopausal women (mean age:61.5) to assess serum 25-hydroyvitaminD (s25OHD) evolution in relation to three interdependent determinants: doses of supplemented (Suppl.) vitamin D3 (VitD3); baseline status; seasonality. Participants were randomized into 3 groups (Gr): Gr.Suppl.0, time-controls maintaining dietary habits; Gr.Suppl.5 and Gr.Suppl.10 consuming one and two 125 g servings of VitD3-fortified yogurts with 5 and 10 µg daily doses, respectively. The 16 intervention-weeks lasted from early-January to mid-August, the 8 follow-up-weeks from late-August to mid-October. Before enrollment, subjects were randomized into two s25OHD strata: “Low stratum (LoStr)“: 25-50 nmol/L; “High stratum (HiStr)“: >50-75 nmol/L. All enrolled participants remained compliant until study end: Gr.Suppl.0 (n=45), Gr.Suppl.5 (n=44) Gr.Suppl.10 (n=44). Over the 16 intervention and 8 follow-up weeks, s25OHD increased in both supplemented groups, more in Gr.Suppl.10 than Gr.Suppl.5. The constant rate of s25OHD per supplemental VitD3 microgram was greater in LoStr than HiStr. s25OHD increase was greater with late (mid-March) than early (mid-January) inclusion. In conclusion, this randomized trial demonstrates: -a dose-dependent s25OHD improvement related to fortified yogurt consumption; -an inversely baseline-dependent increase in s25OHD; -a seasonal effect that highlights the importance of vitamin D3 supplementation during winter, even at 5µg/d, in healthy menopausal women.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202112.0311.v1
Subject: Life Sciences, Other Keywords: Central Europe; climate warming; flowering; frost damage; genetic variability; historical roses; climber roses; seasonality; spring phenology; winter hardiness
Online: 20 December 2021 (12:38:55 CET)
The genetic pool of valuable old ornamental cultivars and their in situ maintenance may be threated by climate change. Meanwhile, the ornamental plants like roses make up an important share of both gardens and urban green spaces, where they are particularly vulnerable to multistress growth conditions. The aim of this research was to evaluate the effect of changing climatic conditions on growth and flowering of 11 historic climber roses through long-term studies (2000-2017) conducted in Central Europe. The evaluation of plants consisted of assessment of frost damage and the timing of early phenological stages (starting of bud break, leaf unfolding) as well as gathering data on beginning, fullness and end of flowering and its abundance. Frost damage was not recorded in any year only in ‘Mme Plantier’, and did not occur for any cultivar after the winter in the years 2007, 2008, and 2014. Only a little damage to one-year shoots was recorded after the winter in the years 2015-2017. Frost damage to ‘Alberic Barbier’, ‘Albertine’, ‘Chaplin's Pink Climber’, ‘Orange Triumph clg’ and ‘Venusta Pendula’ led to pruning to ground level in every year excluding those listed above. Frost damage of once blooming roses limited their flowering; however, the many-year data-sets showed a trend for decreased frost damage and improved abundance of flowering, and these results can be interpreted as a response to the increase of average air temperature. The timing of bud breaking and leaf development in all climber roses was strictly correlated with average air temperature in the dormancy period. The reactions of climber roses to weather conditions confirmed the influence of climatic changes on ornamental crop plants in Central Europe, introducing the potential possibility for the wider application of climber roses, but without certainty of flowering every year.