ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201809.0298.v1
Subject: Biology And Life Sciences, Biology And Biotechnology Keywords: Mortierella; phytohormones; winter wheat seedlings; psychrotrophs
Online: 17 September 2018 (10:10:24 CEST)
The endogenous pool of phytoregulators in plant tissues supplied with microbial secondary metabolites may be crucial for the development of winter wheat seedlings during cool springs. Phytohormones may be synthesized by psychrotrophic microorganisms in lower temperatures occurring in temperate climate. Two fungal isolates from the Spitzbergen soils after the microscopic observations and ITS region molecular characterization were identified as Mortierella antarctica (MA DEM 7) and Mortierella verticillata (MV DEM32). To study the synthesis of indoleacetic acid (IAA) and gibberellic acid (GA) Mortierella strains were grown on media supplemented with precursors of phytohormones (tryptophan or methionine) at 9, 15 and 20 °C for 9 days. The highest amount of IAA synthesis was observed in MV DEM 32 9-day culture at 15 °C with 1.5 mM of tryptophan. At the same temperature the significant promoting effect (about 40% root and shoot fresh weight) of this strain on seedlings was observed. However, only MA DEM 7 had the ACC-deaminase activity with the highest efficiency in 9 °C and at this temperature synthesized IAA without tryptophan also at the same conditions the strain confirmed the strong promoting effect (about 40% root and 24% shoot fresh weight) on seedlings. Both strains synthesized GA in all tested terms and temperatures. Tested Mortierella strains had some important traits to consider them as microbial biofertilizers component improving plant growth in difficult temperate climate.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202001.0154.v1
Subject: Environmental And Earth Sciences, Atmospheric Science And Meteorology Keywords: Air Pollution; PM2.5; SJV; Winter; Stability; Meteorology
Online: 15 January 2020 (12:51:36 CET)
The mass composition of Particulate Matter (PM) with an aerodynamic diameter of 2.5 microns (PM2.5) in San Joaquin Valley (SJV) is dominated by ammonium nitrate (NH4NO3) which is a secondary pollutant. The goal of this research was the investigation of the relationship between emissions, meteorology and PM2.5 concentrations in Fresno for the winter season. It was found that the location of sites near emission sources such as freeways compared with residential sites strongly affected measured PM2.5 concentrations. It was found that although long-term trends showed declines in both emissions and PM2.5 concentrations there was substantial variability between the years in the PM2.5/emissions relationship. Much of the yearly variation in the relationship between emissions and PM2.5 concentrations can be attributed to yearly variations in weather, such as atmospheric stability, precipitation frequency and average wind speed. There are moderate correlations between PM2.5 concentrations and temperature differences between nearby surface stations at varying elevations which explains some of the daily and seasonal variation in PM2.5. Occurrence of precipitation was related to low PM¬2.5 although the higher wind speeds and lower atmospheric stability associated with precipitation likely explain some of the low PM2.5 as well as washout of PM.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202309.1095.v1
Subject: Biology And Life Sciences, Food Science And Technology Keywords: female athletes; winter sports; nutrition; altitude; body composition
Online: 19 September 2023 (03:49:31 CEST)
Eating disorders, especially restrictive eating, are common among female athletes. There are two main types of winter sports, those that are practised outdoors on snow (-25 to +5ºC and 2500 m), such as alpine skiing or snowboarding, and those that are practiced indoors on ice (5-10º C at low altitude), such as figure skating and ice hockey. The aim of this research was to identify the nutritional status and potential risk of female athletes practising winter sports considering the altitude of training. The sample was composed of 58 women (aged 19.81 years (SD: 12.61) who were competitors in some winter sports. Anthropometrics and nutritional variables were taken. Statistically significant differences were found between groups for all the characteristics except thigh skinfold and neither group had an EI that matched their TEE. Both groups met at least 2/3rd of the RDI for all minerals and vitamins, except iodine, fluorine, vit D, E and retinol. This study suggest that female winter sports athletes have insufficient energy, vitamin and mineral intake that can be worsened by altitude.
Subject: Biology And Life Sciences, Anatomy And Physiology Keywords: winter wheat; mycotoxins; Fusarium; resistance; ergosterol; trichothecenes; zearalenone
Online: 17 May 2021 (09:56:21 CEST)
Fusarium head blight (FHB) can cause contamination of cereal grain with mycotoxins. Winter wheat is also infected with FHB. It is more resistant than durum wheat to head infection and less than other small grain cereals. The aim of this study was to identify winter wheat lines that combine low head infection and kernel damage with low toxin contamination. Resistance to FHB of 27 winter wheat lines and cultivars was evaluated over a three-year experiment established in two locations. At the anthesis stage, heads were inoculated with Fusarium culmorum isolates. The FHB index was scored and the percentage of Fusarium-damaged kernels (FDKs) assessed. The grain was analysed for type B trichothecenes (deoxynivalenol and derivatives, nivalenol) and zearalenone content. The average FHB index was 12.9%. The proportion of FDK was 6.9% (weight) and 8.5% (number). An average content of deoxynivalenol amounted to 3.543 mg/kg and nivalenol to 2.115 mg/kg. In total, it was 5.804 m/kg of type B trichothecenes. The zearalenone content in the grain was 0.214 mg/kg. Relationships between FHB index, FDK and mycotoxin contents were highly significant for wheat lines; however, they were stronger for FDK versus mycotoxins. Breeding lines combing all types of FHB resistance were found, and five of them had resistance similar to that of wheat lines with the Fhb1 gene.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201801.0207.v1
Subject: Engineering, Control And Systems Engineering Keywords: appraisal; urban trees; public opinion; photography; summer-winter
Online: 22 January 2018 (18:47:11 CET)
Urban trees are generally considered to be a public asset and are an important part of a city's heritage. The aim of this work is to analyse the influence of season on the economic appraisal of various trees in Madrid. Photographs were taken of 43 individual tree specimens in summer and winter. The survey was designed to compare differences of opinion in the economic assessment of trees. The trees were assessed by five valuation methods used worldwide. 78 agroforestry engineering students answered a written survey, and the variables considered were: percentage of students who always evaluated the tree equally (%0), percentage of students who assigned more value to the summer photograph (%S), and percentage of students who assigned more value to the winter photograph (%W). The results were analysed by the statistical test of equal proportions and ANOVA to detect differences according to tree type (evergreen or deciduous), species and other groupings made by the authors in previous works. W and S percentages are similar. The ANOVA analysis rejects the equality of percentages of S and W between groups. The Welch test rejects the equality of percentage of S, W and O between species.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202202.0153.v2
Subject: Medicine And Pharmacology, Epidemiology And Infectious Diseases Keywords: winter mortality; trends; season; estimated influenza mortality; pandemic influenza; aging
Online: 25 February 2022 (14:24:30 CET)
Trends in excess winter mortality (EWM) were investigated from the winter of 1900/01 to 2019/20. During the 1918-1919 Spanish flu epidemic a maximum EWM of 100% was observed in both Denmark and the USA. During the Spanish flu epidemic in the USA 70% of excess winter deaths were coded to influenza. EWM steadily declined from the Spanish flu peak to a minimum around the 1970’s to 1980’s. There is evidence that this decline was accompanied by a shift in deaths away from the winter, and that the EWM calculation shifted from a maximum around April to June in the early 1900’s to around March since 1967. EWM has a good correlation with the number of estimated influenza deaths, but in this context influenza pandemics after the Spanish flu only had an EWM equivalent to that for seasonal influenza. Using data from 1980 onward the effect of influenza vaccination on EWM was examined using a large international data set. No effect of increasing influenza vaccination could be discerned; however, there are multiple competing forces influencing EWM which will obscure any underlying trend, e.g., increasing age at death, multimorbidity, dementia, polypharmacy, diabetes, and obesity – all of which either interfere with vaccine effectiveness or are risk factors for influenza death. After adjusting the trend in EWM in the USA influenza vaccination can be seen to be masking higher winter deaths among a high morbidity US population. Winter deaths are clearly the outcome of a complex system of competing long-term trends.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202303.0346.v1
Subject: Arts And Humanities, Religious Studies Keywords: Extreme gradient boosting algorithm; winter wheat growing areas; machine learning; identification
Online: 20 March 2023 (06:24:43 CET)
Machine learning (ML) is widely used in the field of crop-growing information identification based on high-resolution remote sensing images. With Baoying County in Jiangsu Province, China, as the study area, this paper used Sentinel-2 images during the winter wheat growth period to construct its spectral, textural, and topographic features during its growth period and proposes a winter wheat-growing area extraction method based on the extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost) algorithm, which was compared with traditional ML algorithms such as the support vector machine (SVM), classification and regression tree (CART), and random forest (RF) algorithms. The results indicated that (1) a winter wheat-growing area identification model based on the XGBoost algorithm was successfully constructed based on Sentinel-2 images, considering 27 spectral, textural, and topographic features; (2) the constructed model could effectively extract winter wheat in the study area with an overall accuracy of 93.43% and only a small error compared with the actual winter wheat-growing area in Baoying County, meeting the accuracy requirement for crop identification in the study area; and (3) the deep learning algorithm XGBoost outperformed the three traditional ML algorithms, among which the RF algorithm was better than the SVM and CART algorithms, both of which had poor identification performance and a large error compared with the actual growing area. This paper provides a scientific basis for the accurate extraction of winter wheat-growing areas and further research on winter wheat growth monitoring and yield estimation.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201912.0403.v1
Subject: Biology And Life Sciences, Agricultural Science And Agronomy Keywords: Flour yield; Winter durum wheat; Grain characteristics; Structural equation model; Simulation
Online: 31 December 2019 (10:07:35 CET)
Flour yield determined the profitability of flour mill, but the intrinsic variability of the grain makes it very complex to analysis and estimate wheat grain flour yield. Simulation for flour yield attributes offer considerable advantages in flour mill, if reliable predictions of flour yield can be provided, because the wheat grain characteristics can be tested before milling. If this is possible, the characteristics thus observed could be quantified more reliably and objectively by Structural Equation Modelling (SEM). SEM was used to look for the most important wheat grain characteristics on flour yield, and then these wheat grain characteristics were used to simulate flour yield. Furthermore, the regressive equation was verified by the field experiment. The coefficient of variation of grain characteristics was low and distributed rather closely. The results of SEM showed that test weight had the most significantly effects on flour yield, followed by the hardness index. Test weight and hardness index could excellently estimate flour yield by multiplicative effect of test weight and hardness index, and which could determine 68% of the variation in flour yield. The simulation result can not only predict flour yield, but also look for the important grain characteristics for the flour yield.
CASE REPORT | doi:10.20944/preprints202303.0372.v1
Subject: Biology And Life Sciences, Agricultural Science And Agronomy Keywords: agricultural modeling; fitting quality; function; grain corn; prediction accuracy; soybeans; winter wheat
Online: 21 March 2023 (07:10:49 CET)
Crop yield prediction is relevant subject of current agricultural science. There are various mathematical approaches to crop yield prediction, and regression analysis, notwithstanding the fact that it is somewhat outdated, is still one of the most used ones in this purpose. The quality of predictive model is of great importance, and it is strongly dependent on the rational choice of the target function. The goal of this study is to find out the best regression model for winter wheat, soybeans, and grain corn yield prediction depending on the crops’ water use. The data on true crops’ yields and water use were collected within 1970-2020 at the experimental fields of the Institute of Climate-Smart Agriculture, Kherson region, Ukraine. In total, 145 data pairs were processed by the best subsets regression to find out the best model in terms of fitting quality (assessed by the Pearson’s coefficient of correlation), and prediction accuracy (assessed by the values of the minimum and maximum absolute errors and mean average percentage error). As a result, it was established that the best fitting quality for all the studied crops is attributed to cubic function, while the best accuracy is recorded for hyperbolic (reverse) function in soybeans (mean absolute percentage error is 12.27%), quadratic and hyperbolic functions in winter wheat (mean absolute percentage error is 20.54%), and cubic function in grain corn (mean absolute percentage error is 14.92%). To sum up the results of the study, it is recommended to apply cubic regression function for modeling crops’ yields in agricultural studies.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201808.0222.v1
Subject: Social Sciences, Tourism, Leisure, Sport And Hospitality Keywords: network analysis; attractions network; gangneung; mega event; 2018 winter olympic; host city
Online: 13 August 2018 (08:49:26 CEST)
One of the most serious concerns about mega event-related changes to small cities is how to effectively utilize newly developed public attractions after the Olympic Games. Making connections with existing local amenities and forming attraction networks can be effective strategies for continuing a city’s revitalization. However, despite the expected benefits, attraction network research shows that these benefits often fail to materialize. With the case of Gangneung, a 2018 winter Olympic hosting city, this study investigated visitation patterns to nineteen selected attractions using network analysis. The results indicate that the most influential nodes are located on the northern coast, the eastern coast, and in the south downtown area, those nodes being the central locations where the strongest of connections are made. New attractions such as the Olympic Park and Walwha Linear Park were rather isolated. While seasonal and periodic variations, visitors’ residences, and destination choice attitudes had a significant effect on visitation patterns, the attraction networks, modes of transportation, proximity to region, and type similarity were not significant factors in the forming of visitation patterns. The results make a methodological contribution to tourist behavior and network research. In addition, beyond individual attraction development, the results provide practical implications in regard to networking and cooperation between multiple attractions using temporal and spatial strategies such as management/investment prioritizing, travel route development, and program scheduling.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202304.0091.v1
Subject: Engineering, Mechanical Engineering Keywords: Winter sports; Sports equipment; Snow; Cross-country skiing; Ski friction; Ski-base texture
Online: 6 April 2023 (10:57:19 CEST)
In winter sports, the equipment often comes into contact with snow or ice, and this contact generates a force that resists motion. In some sports, such as cross-country skiing, this resistive force can significantly affect the outcome of a race, as a small reduction in this force can give an athlete an advantage. Researchers have examined the contact between skis and snow in detail, and to fully understand this friction, the entire ski must be studied at various scales. At the macro scale, the entire geometry of the ski is considered and the apparent contact between the ski and the snow is considered and at the micro scale the contact between the snow and the ski base ski-base textures. In the present work, a method for characterising contact between the ski-base texture and virtual snow will be presented. Six different ski-base textures will be considered. Five of them are stone-ground ski bases, and three of them have linear longitudinal textures with a varying number of lines and peak-to-valley height, and the other two are factory-ground “universal” ski bases. The sixth ski base has been fabricated by a steel-scraping procedure. In general, the results show that a ski base texture with a higher Spk-value has less real contact area, and that the mutual differences can be large for surfaces with similar Sa-values. The average interfacial separation is, in general, correlated with the Sa-value, where a “rougher” surface exhibits a larger average interfacial separation. The results for the reciprocal average interfacial separation, which is related to the Couette type of viscous friction, were in line with the general consensus that a “rougher” texture performs better at high speed than a “smoother” one, and it was found that a texture with high Sa and Spk values resulted in a low reciprocal average interfacial separation and consequently low viscous friction. The reciprocal average interfacial separation was found to increase with increasing real contact area, indicating a correlation between the real area of contact and the Couette part of viscous friction.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202209.0395.v1
Subject: Biology And Life Sciences, Biophysics Keywords: chilling requirement; chlorophyll fluorescence; non-photochemical quenching; PAM; photoprotection; stress resilience; winter dormancy
Online: 26 September 2022 (11:01:44 CEST)
Dormancy is a physiological state that confers winter hardiness to and orchestrates phenological phase progression in temperate perennial plants. Weather fluctuations caused by climate change increasingly disturb dormancy onset and release in many plant species including tree crops leading to aberrant growth, flowering, and fruiting. Currently, research in this field is impeded by the lack of affordable non-invasive methods for on-line monitoring of dormancy. We report on an automatic framework for low-cost, long-term, and scalable dormancy studies in deciduous plants. The proposed method is based on continuous near-field sensing of the photosynthetic activity of shoots via pulse-amplitude modulated chlorophyll fluorescence sensors connected remotely to a data processing system. The resulting high-resolution time series of JIP-test parameters indicative of the responsiveness of the photosynthetic apparatus to environmental stimuli are subjected to frequency-domain analysis. The proposed approach allows to overcome the variance coming from diurnal changes of insolation and to derive estimations on the depth of dormancy. Our approach was validated over three seasons in an experimental apple (Malus × domestica Borkh.) orchard by collating the non-invasive estimations with the results of traditional methods (growing of the cuttings obtained from the tress at different phases of dormancy) and the output of commonly used chilling requirement models. We discuss the advantages of the proposed monitoring framework such as prompt detection of freeze damages along with its potential limitations.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202107.0362.v2
Subject: Biology And Life Sciences, Biochemistry And Molecular Biology Keywords: VarroMed®; Varroa destructor; winter treatment; summer-autumn treatment; queen caging; brood interruption
Online: 30 August 2021 (12:52:30 CEST)
VarroMed® is a soft acaricide registered for honey bees on the European Union market since 2017 for Varroa control. Researchers involved were partners of different countries of the Varroa control task force of COLOSS Association. Our goal was to evaluate performances (acaricide efficacy and toxic effects on honey bees) of VarroMed® in different climatic conditions. Our results in the tested apiaries showed an efficacy ranging from 71.2 to 89.3 % in summer/autumn, and from 71.8 % to 95.6 % in winter. No toxic effects on bees were observed, except in one apiary, where severe cold climatic conditions played a crucial role. The treatment could be efficiently applied in brood right as well as in broodless colonies. Integrated pest management (IPM) recommendations for bee-keepers are provided in order to apply the best Varroa control protocol.
REVIEW | doi:10.20944/preprints202103.0034.v1
Subject: Biology And Life Sciences, Biochemistry And Molecular Biology Keywords: respiratory illness; pathogenicity; virulence; natural selection; colds; influenza; rhinovirus; weather; climate; Tropics; summer; winter
Online: 1 March 2021 (17:14:19 CET)
This review seeks to explain four features of viral respiratory illnesses that have perplexed generations of virologists: (1) the seasonal timing of respiratory illness; (2) the common viruses causing respiratory illness worldwide, including year-round disease in the Tropics; (3) the rapid response of outbreaks to weather, specifically temperature; (4) the rapid arrival and termination of epidemics caused by influenza and other viruses. The inadequacy of the popular explanations of seasonality is discussed, and a simple hypothesis is proposed, called Temperature Dependent Viral Tropism (TDVT), that is compatible with the above features of respiratory illness. TDVT notes that viruses can transmit themselves more effectively if they moderate their pathogenicity (thereby maintaining host mobility) and suggests that endemic respiratory viruses accomplish this by developing thermal sensitivity within a range that supports organ-specific viral tropism within the human body, whereby they replicate most rapidly at temperatures below body temperature. This allows them to confine themselves to the upper respiratory tract and to avoid infecting the lungs, heart, gut etc. Biochemical and tissue-culture studies show that “wild” respiratory viruses show such natural thermal sensitivity. The typical early autumn surge of colds and the existence of respiratory illness in the Tropics year-round at intermediate levels are explained by the tendency for strains to adapt their thermal sensitivity to their local climate and season. The TDVT hypothesis has important practical implications for preventing and treating respiratory illness including Covid-19. TVDT is testable with many options for experiments to increase our understanding of viral seasonality and pathogenicity.
HYPOTHESIS | doi:10.20944/preprints202101.0389.v1
Subject: Medicine And Pharmacology, Immunology And Allergy Keywords: respiratory illness; pathogenicity; virulence; natural selection; colds; influenza; rhinovirus; weather; climate; Tropics; summer; winter
Online: 19 January 2021 (16:42:56 CET)
This review seeks to explain four features of viral respiratory illnesses that have perplexed many generations of microbiologists: (1) the seasonal occurrence of viral respiratory illness; (2) the occurrence of respiratory illness year-round in the Tropics; (3) the rapid response of illness to temperature drops in temperate regions; (4) the explosive arrival and rapid termination of epidemics caused by influenza and other respiratory viruses. I discuss the inadequacy of the popular explanations of seasonality, and propose a simple hypothesis, called Temperature Dependent Viral Tropism (TD-VT), that is compatible with the above and other features of respiratory illness. TD-VT notes that viruses can often transmit themselves more effectively if they moderate their pathogenicity (thereby maintaining the mobility of their hosts) and suggests that most endemic respiratory viruses accomplish this by developing thermal sensitivity, in the sense that they normally replicate rapidly only at temperatures below normal body temperature. This allows them to confine themselves to the upper respiratory tract and to avoid infecting the lungs, heart, gut etc. I review biochemical and tissue-culture studies that found that “wild” respiratory viruses often show natural thermal sensitivity within a range that supports organ-specific tropism within the human body, and I discuss the evident tendency for viral strains to adapt their thermal sensitivity to their local climate and season. I also explore the possible misinterpretation of early experiments where volunteers were inoculated nasally with viral samples and then chilled. Next, I discuss the practical implications of the TD-VT hypothesis for preventing and treating respiratory illness. Finally, I note that the hypothesis is very testable and make suggestions for the most important experiments to increase our understanding of the seasonality and pathogenicity of viral respiratory illness.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202008.0287.v1
Subject: Biology And Life Sciences, Agricultural Science And Agronomy Keywords: grapevine; winter pruning; root distribution; root density; root growth; root/canopy ratio; root/yield ratio
Online: 12 August 2020 (13:31:36 CEST)
As in any other plant, in the grapevine roots play a vital role in terms of anchorage, uptake of water and nutrients, as well as storage and production of chemicals. Their behaviour and development depend on various factors, namely rootstock genetics, soil physical and chemical features, field agronomic practices. Canopy management, involving techniques such as defoliation and pruning, could greatly influence root growth. To date, most of the studies on grapevine winter pruning have focused on the effects on yield and quality of grapes, achievable by using different pruning systems and techniques, while the knowledge of root distribution, development, and growth in relation to winter pruning is still not well understood. In this contest, the purpose of this study was to investigate the effect of winter pruning on the root system of field-grown Vitis vinifera cv. Pinot Gris grafted onto rootstock SO4. We compared two pruning treatments (pruning-P and no pruning-NP) and analysed the effect on root distribution and density, root index and on the root sugar reserves. Root data were analysed in relation to canopy growth and yield, to elucidate the effect of winter pruning on the root/yield ratio. Our data indicated that winter pruning stimulated the root growth and distribution without compromising canopy development, while no-pruning treatment produced less growth of roots but a larger canopy. Information regarding root growth and root canopy ratio is important as it gives us an understanding of the relationship between the aerial and subterranean parts of the plant, how they compete, and finally, offers us the possibility to ponder on cultural practices.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201909.0090.v2
Subject: Biology And Life Sciences, Agricultural Science And Agronomy Keywords: Fusarium head blight; Fusarium species; soil minerals; ergosterol; mycotoxins; organic farming; sowing value; winter wheat
Online: 9 October 2019 (05:38:12 CEST)
Growing acreage and changing consumer preferences cause increasing interest in the cereal products originating from organic farming. Lack of results of objective test, however, does not allow drawing conclusions about the effects of cultivation in the organic system and comparison to currently preferred conventional system. Field experiment was conducted in organic and conventional fields. Thirty modern cultivars of winter wheat were sown. They were characterized for disease infection including Fusarium head blight, seed sowing value, the amount of DNA of the six species of Fusarium fungi as well as concentration of ergosterol and trichothecenes in grain. The intensity Fusarium head blight was at a similar level in both systems. However, Fusarium colonization of kernels expressed as ergosterol level or DNA concentration was higher for the organic system. It did not reflect in an increased accumulation of trichothecenes in grain, which was similar in both systems, but sowing value of organically produced seeds was lower. Significant differences between analyzed cropping systems and experimental variants were found. The selection of the individual cultivars for organic growing in terms of resistance to diseases and contamination of grain with Fusarium toxins was possible. Effects of organic growing differ significantly from the conventional and grain obtained such way can be recommended to consumers. There are indications for use of particular cultivars bred for conventional agriculture in the case of organic farming, and the growing organic decreases plant stress resulting from intense fertilization and chemical plant protection.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202306.1349.v1
Subject: Biology And Life Sciences, Ecology, Evolution, Behavior And Systematics Keywords: compound drought-heat extremes; summer/winter fire seasons; VPD; weather variables; Three Gorges Reservoir; China; climate change
Online: 19 June 2023 (11:23:42 CEST)
Global warming is increasing the frequency and intensity of compound drought-heat events (CDHEs), potentially leading to larger and more extreme fire seasons in mesic forests. Wildfire activity in subtropical China, under the influence of monsoonal rainfall, was historically limited to dry winters and rare in rainy summers. Here we seek to test that this area is on the brink of a major change in its fire regime characterized by larger fire seasons, extending into the summer, leading to increases in burned area. We analyze fire activity in Chongqing Municipality (46,890 km2), an important area in subtropical China hosting the Three Gorges Reservoir Area. We observed significant increases in summer forest fires under anomalous dry-hot summer conditions, where total burned area was 3-6 higher than the historical annual mean (largely confined to the winter season). Vapor pressure deficit, an indicator of hot and dry conditions, was a strong predictor of fire activity, with major wildfires occurring on days where VPD was higher than 3.5kPa. Results indicate that major wildfire activity may occur in the area as a result of climate change, unless strong fire prevention policies are implemented.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202112.0311.v1
Subject: Biology And Life Sciences, Horticulture Keywords: Central Europe; climate warming; flowering; frost damage; genetic variability; historical roses; climber roses; seasonality; spring phenology; winter hardiness
Online: 20 December 2021 (12:38:55 CET)
The genetic pool of valuable old ornamental cultivars and their in situ maintenance may be threated by climate change. Meanwhile, the ornamental plants like roses make up an important share of both gardens and urban green spaces, where they are particularly vulnerable to multistress growth conditions. The aim of this research was to evaluate the effect of changing climatic conditions on growth and flowering of 11 historic climber roses through long-term studies (2000-2017) conducted in Central Europe. The evaluation of plants consisted of assessment of frost damage and the timing of early phenological stages (starting of bud break, leaf unfolding) as well as gathering data on beginning, fullness and end of flowering and its abundance. Frost damage was not recorded in any year only in ‘Mme Plantier’, and did not occur for any cultivar after the winter in the years 2007, 2008, and 2014. Only a little damage to one-year shoots was recorded after the winter in the years 2015-2017. Frost damage to ‘Alberic Barbier’, ‘Albertine’, ‘Chaplin's Pink Climber’, ‘Orange Triumph clg’ and ‘Venusta Pendula’ led to pruning to ground level in every year excluding those listed above. Frost damage of once blooming roses limited their flowering; however, the many-year data-sets showed a trend for decreased frost damage and improved abundance of flowering, and these results can be interpreted as a response to the increase of average air temperature. The timing of bud breaking and leaf development in all climber roses was strictly correlated with average air temperature in the dormancy period. The reactions of climber roses to weather conditions confirmed the influence of climatic changes on ornamental crop plants in Central Europe, introducing the potential possibility for the wider application of climber roses, but without certainty of flowering every year.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202108.0554.v3
Subject: Environmental And Earth Sciences, Atmospheric Science And Meteorology Keywords: Biomass burning; Anthropogenic aerosols; West Africa; United Kingdom Floods; Iberian Drought; European winter temperatures; Last Millennium Ensemble; NASA MERRA-2
Online: 29 December 2021 (13:14:28 CET)
Three significant changes have occurred in the winter climate in Europe recently: increased UK flooding; Iberian drought; and warmer temperatures north of the Alps. The literature links all three to a persistent, significant increase in sea level pressure over Southern Europe, the Mediterranean, Iberia and the Eastern Atlantic (SEMIEA) which changes the atmospheric circulation system: forcing cold fronts to the north away from Iberia; and creating a south westerly flow around the northern perimeter of the high-pressure region bringing warmer, moist air from the subtropical Atlantic to the UK and Europe which increases precipitation in the UK and raises the temperature in Europe. I use the Last Millennium Ensemble, MERRA-2 and Terra-NCEP data to demonstrate that the extreme, anthropogenic, West African aerosol Plume (WAP) which only exists from December to April perturbs the northern, regional Hadley Circulation creating the high pressure in the SEMIEA. I also show that the anthropogenic WAP has only existed in its extreme form in recent decades as the two major sources of the WAP aerosols: biomass burning; and gas flaring have both increased significantly since 1950 due to: a four-fold increase in population; and gas flaring rising from zero to 7.4 billion m3/annum and note that this time span coincides with the changes in the three elements of the winter climate of Europe. I also suggest that it may be possible to eliminate the WAP and return the winter climate of Europe to its natural state after the crucial first step of recognising the cause of the changes is taken.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202102.0021.v1
Subject: Biology And Life Sciences, Biochemistry And Molecular Biology Keywords: excess winter mortality; influenza; latitude; gender; age; respiratory conditions; spatiotemporal effects; female; male; pandemics; seasons; ethnic groups; respiration disorders; coinfection
Online: 1 February 2021 (12:16:39 CET)
(1) Background: To investigate the dynamic issues behind international variation in EWM. (2) A rolling EWM calculation is used to reveal seasonal changes in the EWM calculation and is especially relevant nearer to the equator. (3) Results: In addition to latitude country specific factors determine EWM. Females generally show higher EWM mainly due to respiratory conditions. The EWM for respiratory conditions in England and Wales ranges from 44% to 83% which is about double the all-cause mortality equivalent. Age has a profound effect on EWM with a peak in puberty and then increasing EWM at old age. The gap between male and female EWM seems to act as a diagnostic tool reflecting the infectious/metrological mix in each winter. Additional difference due to ethnicity are also observed. An EWM equivalent calculation for sickness absence demonstrates how additional health-related variables can be linked to EWM. (4) Conclusions: EWM does not reach a peak at the same time each year, especially so in the tropics. Countries midway between the equator and the poles show highest EWM. Differences between the genders are highly significant and seem to vary according to the mix of variables active each winter. Pandemic influenza does not elevate EWM, although seasonal influenza plays a part each winter.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201908.0059.v1
Subject: Biology And Life Sciences, Forestry Keywords: deciduous forest; female; forest bathing; forest therapy; Positive and Negative Affect Schedule; Profile of Mood States; Restorative Outcome Scale; restoration; Shinrin-Yoku; snow covered forest; Subjective Vitality Scale; winter
Online: 5 August 2019 (08:56:32 CEST)
Forest recreation can be successfully conducted for the purpose of psychological relaxation, as has been proven in previous scientific studies. During the winter in many countries, when snow cover occurs frequently, forest recreation (walking, relaxation, photography, etc.) is common. Nevertheless, whether forest therapy conducted in a forest environment with a snow cover will also have a positive effect on psychological indicators remains unknown. Furthermore, male subjects frequently participate in forest therapy experiments, whereas females are rarely involved. Thus, in this study, the effectuality of forest recreation during winter and with snow cover was tested on 32 young females. For these reasons, the experiment involved 15-minute periods of relaxation in a forest environment or in an urban environment, in addition to a pre-test under indoor conditions. Four psychological questionnaires (POMS, PANAS, ROS, SVS) were administered to participants before and after interventions. Results showed that participants’ levels of negative mood, as measured by different aspects of the POMS questionnaire (tension-anxiety, anger-hostility, depression-dejection, confusion, fatigue), decreased after exposure to the forest environment. In contrast, both tension-anxiety and anger-hostility increased in the urban environment. The indicator of negative affect from the PANAS questionnaire also increased after exposure to the urban environment, whereas the indicator of positive affect based on PANAS was higher in the forest environment than in the urban environment. Restorativeness and subjective vitality exhibited higher values after exposure to the forest environment in comparison to those from the control and pre-test. The changes in these indicators demonstrates that forest recreation in the snow during winter can significantly increase psychological relaxation in young females, as well as showing that recreation can be successfully conducted under these winter conditions.