The development of reliable predictive algorithm for house price as the housing market is a stand-out among the most involved regarding valuing the price and continues to fluctuate, is constantly a need for socio-economic advancement and welfare of citizen. In this paper, we develop machine learning algorithms for forecasting UK housing Price, and find an optimal algorithm that forecasts housing price accurately on the premises of the presence of many features or covariates. After applying correlation analysis to remove correlated variables in order to avoid multicollinearity, thereby increasing the statistical power, a novel method of using regression analysis to first of all understand and select statistically significant features for the various regions in England based on North South divide is adopted. These features are then used in the machine learning algorithm to further increase the statistical power of the algorithm, increase the level of accuracy for each of them and ultimately increase the predictive values for the algorithms. The model construction involves 3 stages: 1- correlation analysis to identify and remove correlated variables thereby avoiding multicollinearity and increasing the statistical power of the linear regression, 2 - using linear regression to determine variables that are statistically significant and 3 - building the machine learning algorithms based on the variables that are statistically significant from the linear regression. A comprehensive dataset of UK Paid housing Price from 2010 to 2019 was linked to a number of other datasets to generate a total 21 variables or features used for the models. Catboost, Gradient Boosting, Bagging, Random Forest, Extra Tree all achieved the excellent models performance result in all the regions considered. The comparison of the seven models showed that Extra Tree algorithm consistently achieved the best performance in term of level of accuracy in all the regions. K-Nearest Neighbours (KNN) is the only algorithm with less than 50% level of accuracy. Noticeably, the regions considered had varying or differing insignificant variables, implying that although many variables are common (statistically significant) to all the regions, there are regional differences and impact when modelling or predicting housing prices. This study validates the practicability of developing a machine learning methodology for the prediction of housing price. This research offers a reference for future house price prediction based on machine learning.

^{We consider the collective pricing orders in a minimum supply chain that is composed of a monopolistic manufacturer and many retailers that belong to the same chain store firm. The retailers have the freedom to raise or lower the local price. The chain store firm sets up the commercial rules for local retail stores to maximize its total payoff. The monopolistic manufacturer firm controls the total quantity supplied for the market to achieve maximum benefits. We applied the two dimensional Ising model in statistical physics to map the collective distribution of microscopic strategy of local retailers into the macroscopic total payoff of the chain store firm. The local stores choose to raise the price or lower the price based their own mind when the supply in market surpasses the demand. When the supply in market is far less than the demand, the stores synchronously raise prices, even though a local store only have the incomplete information of their nearest neighboring supermarket. We find the critical equation for the balance point between the action of supplier and the action of chain store management based on game theory and statistical physics. The critical equation can identify the Nash equilibrium point of the non-cooperative game between the manufacturer and the chain-store seller, and reveal different levels of collective operations. This statistical physics method also holds for more complicate supply chains and economic systems.}

We study in this paper the time evolution of stock markets using a statistical physics approach. We consider an ensemble of agents who sell or buy a good according to several factors acting on them: the majority of the neighbors, the market ambiance, the variation of the price and some specific measure applied at a given time. Each agent is represented by a spin having a number of discrete states q or continuous states, describing the tendency of the agent for buying or selling. The market ambiance is represented by a parameter T which plays the role of the temperature in physics: low T corresponds to a calm market, high T to a turbulent one. We show that there is a critical value of T, say T_c, where strong fluctuations between individual states lead to a disordered situation in which there is no majority: the numbers of sellers and buyers are equal, namely the market clearing. The specific measure, by the government or by economic organisms, is parameterized by $H$ applied on the market at the time t₁ and removed at the time t₂. We have used Monte Carlo simulations to study the time evolution of the price as functions of those parameters. In particular we show that the price strongly fluctuates near T_c and there exists a critical value H_c above which the boosting effect remains after H is removed. Our model replicates the stylized facts in finance (time-independent price variation), volatility clustering (time-dependent dynamics) and persistent effect of a temporary shock. The second party of the paper deals with the price variation using a time-dependent mean-field theory. By supposing that the sellers and the buyers belong to two distinct communities with their characteristics different in both intra-group and inter-group interactions, we find the price oscillation with time. Results are shown and discussed.

Aiming at the current optimization problem of electric vehicle charging path planning, a charging path optimization strategy for electric vehicles under the "Traffic-Price-Distribution" mode is proposed. This strategy builds an electric vehicle charging and navigation system based on road traffic network model, real-time electricity price model and distribution network model. Based on Dijkstra shortest path algorithm and Monte Carlo time-space prediction method, the goal is to minimize the charging cost of electric vehicles. Optimal charging path. The simulation results of MATLAB and MATPOWER show that the electric vehicle charging path optimization strategy can better solve the local traffic congestion problem and improve the safety and stability of the distribution network on the basic of fully considering the convenience of electric vehicle charging.

The importance of the national security of supply has been emphasized in recent years due to the COVID-19 pandemic and changes in operating environments. Thanks to autonomy and resiliency in fuel procurement, organizations with decentralized energy plants may be able to quickly adapt to the changing needs of society. The main aim of this study was to increase the sustainability of a Finnish CHP plant's wood procurement by determining the company's profitable wood procurement region while keeping the forests renewable. The income received from the sale of energy and the costs incurred from the procurement of wood were collected from the ERP system as input data for the developed DSS. The environmental sustainability of wood procurement was assessed by considering the additional costs caused through the EEAP mechanism if the carbon sink of the forest worsened due to wood procurement in the area. The supply chains were compared so that the CHP plant managers could adopt the best energy wood value chains. The results showed that updating the procurement strategy would be necessary. The CHP plant managers should purchase energy wood from a larger procurement area than the current one and focus on roadside purchases of wood. The Techno-Economic Wood Payment Ability Model was a useful part of the DSS to guide wood buyers toward sustainable wood procurement by increasing the share of renewable forests.

This paper presents a V2G strategy to flatten the daily load curve by considering the charging and discharging location of the electric vehicle to help understand the effect of the load generated by charging and discharging of the electric vehicle on the power grid. Based on the estimated share of electric vehicles, the assumption that electric vehicles go to work in the morning and leave in the afternoon was set, and the electric vehicle discharge power was calculated by reflecting both the characteristics of vehicles that go to work in the morning and the SMP1 and SMP2 plans. In addition, the electric vehicle charging power was calculated by reflecting the characteristics of vehicles returning home from work in the afternoon and the TOU rate system. In other words, in order to establish an efficient V2G strategy, a charging/discharging type-specific modeling was developed that considered all the characteristics of an electric vehicle commuting vehicle, and charging and discharging daily load using SMP1 and SMP2 rate plans for morning discharge and TOU1 and TOU2 rate plans for afternoon charging were applied. After calculating the curve, this value was compared and analyzed to evaluate the effect on grid leveling by adding the existing load. The analysis provides an accurate understanding of the impact of EV charging and discharging loads on the power grid according to V2G strategies. In this paper, it is helpful to apply EV charge and discharge management technology to avoid grid overload and minimize grid expansion by leveling the grid daily load curve by applying appropriate SMP and TOU rates through the establishment of an efficient V2G strategy by charge and discharge modeling.

This paper intends to examine whether a company’s policy of dividend would impact or influence the price fluctuation of respective common stock in the designated stock market particularly in Hong Kong. Hence, there are 354 companies in Hong Kong which are all listed company on the Stock Exchange of Hong Kong (HKEX), were chosen as sample data for analysis with their audited financial information ranged from 2001 to 2020. Two proxies, the yield and the ratio of pay-out of dividend were widely adopted for the measurement of the effect of dividend policy and the possible influence on the volatility of respective common stock price by employing two statistical models, which are the model of fixed and random effects to provide accurate regression coefficients. With the results from the model of fixed effects, the yield and the pay-out ratio of dividend have been found statistically associated to the price volatilization of respective common stock in Hong Kong. The statical results in this study also find the yield and the ratio of pay-out of dividend are apparently and negatively associated to the price volatilization of respective common stock in Hong Kong. The research outcomes will be a reference for further study on different variables may have effects or volatilize the price of common stock price particularly in Hong Kong capital market.

: Following the phenomenal growth of and competition among coffee chain retailers, the coffee chain market has expanded substantially thanks to rising income levels, the increasing young population, and rapidly changing lifestyles. Attracting consumers’ attention and enhancing their loyalty behaviors have become very difficult for coffee chain retailers. This study seeks to understand the mechanisms through which emotions and the dedication-constraint model lead to brand loyalty and willingness to pay more to certain coffee chain retailers. Emotions and the dedication-constraint model are major factors in the research, but few studies have combined them to examine the formation of loyalty behaviors. This study synthesizes emotional responses and the dedication-constraint model to develop a theoretical model. Based on the ambivalent view of emotions, it also examines how positive and negative emotions affect the combination of brand loyalty and willingness to pay more to certain coffee chain retailers. Moreover, it identifies the antecedents of affective and calculative commitments in the context of coffee chain retailers. Our findings indicate that loyalty behaviors (dedication- and constraint-based mechanisms from brand loyalty and willingness to pay more to certain coffee chain retailers), emotional responses, and affective and calculative commitments significantly affect brand loyalty directly and indirectly through both positive and negative emotions. Furthermore, service quality, physical environment quality, and price fairness significantly affect affective commitments, while price fairness significantly affects both affective and calculative commitments. Finally, affective and calculative commitments significantly affect willingness to pay more, both directly and indirectly, through positive emotions and affect it directly through negative emotions. The results’ theoretical and managerial implications and possible future research directions are discussed.

Examining the similarity of event environments or surroundings, more precisely settings, provides additional insight in analyzing event sequences as it provides information about the context and potential common factors that may have influenced them. This article proposes a new similarity measure for event setting sequences, which involve the space and time in which events occur. While similarity measures for spatiotemporal event sequences have been studied, the settings and setting sequences have not yet been studied. While modeling event setting sequences we consider spatial and temporal scales to define the bounds of the setting and incorporates dynamic variables alongside static variables. Using a matrix-based representation and an extended Jaccard index we developed new similarity measures that allow for the use of all variable data types. We successfully used these similarity measures coupled with other multivariate statistical analysis approaches in a case study involving setting sequences and pollution event sequences associated with the same monitoring stations, which validate the hypothesis that more similar spatial-temporal settings or setting sequences may generate more similar events or event sequences. In conclusion, these similarity measures have many potential real-world applications, and offer researchers a powerful tool for understanding different factors and their dynamics corresponding to occurrences of spatiotemporal event sequences.

Growing evidence suggests that healthcare provider advice may increase tobacco cessation, reduce alcohol use, and improve the adoption of desirable lifestyle behaviors among patients. However, how brief interventions and other provider-patient interactions can shape cumulative adoption of multiple modifiable behaviors is less well studied for diabetes prevention and control. Using weighted internet panel survey data from a large socio-demographically diverse urban population in the United States (n=1,003), the present study describes differences in group characteristics among those who had been “ever diagnosed” with prediabetes/diabetes versus those who had not. It also examines the associations between the cumulative adoption of lifestyle behaviors and each of the following: a) lifetime prediabetes/diabetes diagnosis; b) brief lifestyle intervention exposure (i.e., received provider advice/encouragement); and c) recent provider-patient communication about diabetes. There were several group differences in “ever diagnosed” prediabetes/diabetes status by age, employment status, health status, nutrition knowledge, blood pressure/hypertension diagnosis, and diabetes-related health behaviors (p<0.05). Each of the three provider-patient interactions of interest were positively associated with a higher cumulative sum of adopted modifiable lifestyle behaviors for diabetes prevention and management. Results suggest that provider advice/provider-patient interactions of any type can have a salutary impact on whether individuals with prediabetes or type 2 diabetes will engage in recommended lifestyle behavior modifications.

Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs) and Recurrent Neural Networks (RNNs) have been utilised to forecast the foreign exchange market (Forex). However, such models usually exhibit unstable behaviour, as data perturbations often downgrade the functionality of the entire network due to their monolithic architecture. Hence, this study proposes a novel neuroscience-informed modular network applied to the closing prices and the sentiments retrieved from Yahoo Finance and Twitter APIs, aiming to anticipate better price fluctuations in Euro to British Pound Sterling (EUR/GBP) rather than monolithic methods. The proposed model is based on a new modular CNN, replacing pooling layers with orthogonal kernel initialisation RNNs coupled with Monte Carlo Dropout (MCD), namely MCoRNNMCD. It combines two modules: i) a convolutional simple RNN and ii) a convolutional Gated Recurrent Unit (GRU), where orthogonality and MCD are added to reduce the overfitting, assessing each module's uncertainty. These parallel feature extraction modules concatenate their outputs to a final three-layer Artificial Neural Network (ANN) decision-making module. A comprehensive comparison viewing objective evaluation metrics such as the Mean Square Error (MSE) proved that the proposed MCoRNNMCD-ANN outperformed single CNN, LSTM, GRU, and the state-of-the-art hybrid BiCuDNNLSTM, CLSTM, CNN-LSTM, and LSTM-GRU in forecasting hourly EUR/GBP closing price fluctuations.

Accurate electricity price forecasting has become a substantial requirement since the liberalization of the electricity markets. Due to the challenging nature of the electricity prices, which includes high volatility, sharp price spikes and seasonality, various types of electricity price forecasting models still compete and can not outperform each other consistently. Neural Networks have been successfully used in machine learning problems and Recurrent Neural Networks (RNNs) have been proposed to address time-dependent learning problems. In particular, Long Short Term Memory and Gated Recurrent Units (GRU) are tailor-made for time series price estimation. In this paper, we propose to use Gated Recurrent Units as a new technique for electricity price forecasting. We have trained a variety of algorithms with rolling 3-year window and compared the results with the RNNs. In our experiments, 3-layered GRUs outperformed all other neural network structures and state of the art statistical techniques in a statistically significant manner in the Turkish day-ahead market.

Forage fish are crucial to human nutrition, especially in developing countries. However, in these countries, most forage fish catches are used to make aquafeeds for aquaculture, which leaves only a small quantity for direct human consumption. This practice increases fish prices in local markets and undermines people's nutrition. Overfishing forage fish for industrial purposes harms the ecosystem, reduces the catch of larger fish, and marginalizes local fishermen. Although previous discussions have touched qualitatively on the ethics and injustice of this practice, this article provides quantitative scales to measure the impact of the practice on the finances and forage fish consumption of low-income consumers using reasonable assumptions and literature values. Increasing the annual supply of forage fish by 25% to the 5 million MT of fresh fish markets globally could save consumers several billion US dollars annually. Families could consume a higher percentage of nutritious fish for less money. Furthermore, leaving forage fish in the sea could benefit wildlife and increase the capture of larger fish, such as mackerel, which are in demand in local markets and fished by local fishermen. The unintentional and involuntary contributions of low-income societies to enable the growth of high-value fish and shrimp for affluent societies seem unjust and warrant further investigation.

Japan has the world’s largest old population ratio, and aging is an urgent societal issue. As global trends seem to be following Japan’s social changes, there is an emphasis on municipalities becoming more age-friendly. Hence, we examine the age-friendliness of 135 Japanese municipalities, selecting 240 resident architectural designers and constructors to assess their municipalities, using the Age-Friendly Cities and Communities Questionnaire (AFCCQ). The findings indicate that Japan lacks “outdoor spaces and buildings.” Additionally, the evaluation of “housing,” “community support and health services,” and “transportation” in populated municipalities in the past five years is significantly higher than those in depopulated ones. Age-friendliness is significantly affected in the AFCCQ total score (hereafter, Score) based on “housing,” “social participation,” “community support and health services,” “transportation” and “financial situation” evaluations. High specificity (0.939) was found when the Score was treated as a marker of depopulation and, therefore, an age-friendly approach is a necessary condition to prevent depopulation. Furthermore, a lack of “communication and information” is observed in municipalities with a higher rate of single-person households aged 65 years and above. Therefore, resident architectural designers’ and constructors’ assessments, combined with the AFCCQ can be a powerful tool in evaluating the age-friendliness of municipalities.

The In this paper, a universal method has been developed, which is a combination of an optimization method and a method for assessing the marginal utility. At present, the problem of optimal load distribution in the power system between a hydropower plant (HPP) and thermal power plants (TPP) is solved using the equality of the differential incremental rate characteristics of fuel consumption at TPP and water consumption at HPP by the Lagrangian multiplier method. In this case, the number of iterations can be five or more. The proposed approach is based, first of all, on the correct representation of the differential characteristics and calculation of a hydro resource price for the operational control of the HPP. Based on the comparison of water volume at a HPP and fuel amount at combined heat and power plants (CHPP) used for generation of 1 kW power, it is possible to determine a water price for a HPP. As a result of implementing the developed method for the HPP, a price of sold electricity in the flexible energy market will be comparable with the price for sold electricity produced at CHPPs, being equal to approximately 120 rubles/MW∙h.

DC residential distribution system (RDS) consisted by DC living home will be a significant integral part in the future green transmission. Meanwhile, the increasing number of distributed resources and intelligent devices will change the power flow between main grid and demand sides. The utilization of distributed generations (DGs) requires an economic operation, stability, environmentally friendly in the whole DC system. This paper not only presents an optimization schedule and transactive energy (TE) approach through centralized energy management system (CEMS), but a control approach to implement and ensure DG output voltages to various DC buses in DC RDS. Based on data collection, prediction and a certain objection, the expert system in CEMS can work out the optimization schedule, after this, the voltage droop control for steady voltage is aligned with the command of unit power schedule. In this work, a DC RDS is as a case study to demonstrate the process, the RDS is associated with unit economic models, cost minimization objective is proposed to achieve based on real-time electrical price. The results show that the proposed framework and methods will help the targeted DC residential system to reduce the total cost and reach stability and efficiency.

We describe a vision for a national-scale heavy mineral (HM) map generated through automated mineralogical identification and quantification of HMs contained in floodplain sediments from large catchments covering most of Australia. The composition of the sediments reflects the dominant rock types in each catchment, with the generally resistant HMs largely preserving the mineralogical fingerprint of their host protoliths through the weathering-transport-deposition cycle. Heavy mineral presence/absence, absolute and relative abundance, and co-occurrence are metrics useful to map, discover and interpret catchment lithotype(s), geodynamic setting, magmatism, metamorphic grade, alteration or mineralization. Underpinning this vision is a pilot project, focusing on a subset of the national sediment sample archive, which is used to demonstrate the feasibility of the larger, national-scale project. We preview a bespoke, cloud-based mineral network analysis (MNA) tool to visualize, explore and discover relationships between HMs as well as between them and geological setting or mineral deposits. We envisage that the Heavy Mineral Map of Australia and MNA tool will contribute significantly to mineral prospectivity analysis and modeling here, particularly for technology critical elements and their host minerals, which are central to the global economy transitioning to a more sustainable, decarbonized paradigm.

Accurate agricultural commodity price models enable efficient allocation of limited natural resources, leading to improved sustainability in agriculture. Because of climate change, price volatility and uncertainty for the sector are expected to increase in the future, increasing the need for improved price modeling. With the emergence of machine learning (ML) algorithms, novel tools are now available to enhance the modeling of agricultural commodity prices. This research uses both univariate and multivariate ML techniques to perform probabilistic price prediction modelling for the Canadian beef industry, taking into account beef production, commodity market, and international trade features to enhance accuracy. We apply multivariate algorithms by using support vector regression (SVR), random forest (RF), and adaboost (AB) and univariate algorithms by using autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA), seasonal ARIMA (SARIMA), and the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average with exogenous factors (SARIMAX). We apply these models to monthly fed steer price data between January 2005 and September 2023 and compare predicted prices with observed prices using several validation metrics. The outcomes indicate that both random forest (RF) and adaboost (AB) in multivariate modeling show superior performance in accurately predicting Alberta fed steer prices in comparison to other algorithms. To better account for the variance of the best model performance, we subsequently adopted a probabilistic approach by considering uncertainty in our best-selected ML model. The beef industry can use these improved price models to minimize resource waste and inefficiency in the sector and improve the long-term sustainability prospects for beef producers in Canada.

Overcoming the issue of land value and cost in urban areas will not provide a miraculous solution to the problems there. Appropriate land use cost, especially for residential and commercial land, is just one of the issues to be settled in the debate. Therefore, this study aims to build a new urban land price determination model by investigating the urban syntactical analysis, street width, and their economic effects on land value. The study attempts to determine the impact of syntactic analysis of streets and street width on land prices; it also seeks to identify the factor most affected by the land cost. Ultimately, the study built a model for urban land price prediction. The case selected is evaluated and compared in three aspects of the analysis, including; the urban axial assessments and urban street width, to find out their impacts on the real estate’s land price in the context of the land use distributions, which are predominantly residential and commercial types of uses. Depth map X8, SPSS, and QGIS 3.16 were used for the study evaluations and assessments. The result showed a significant impact of the urban street network on the price of land; this result can be used to enhance future urban design regarding urban economy improvements.

This study seeks to determine how economic policy uncertainty (EPU) influences investment decisions and the market value of the Pakistan Stock Exchange. The study examines investment and operational data from 249 energy and petroleum companies between 2015 and 2020, in addition to macroeconomic variables such as EPU. This study investigates the moderating effects of EPU on investments in fixed and intangible assets, as well as its effect on Tobin's Q and the market price per share. The outcomes demonstrate that EPU reduces the costs of both tangible and intangible assets for businesses. In addition, companies with a greater Tobin's Q and market price per share are more impacted by uncertain corporate investment policies. However, financial leverage is found to be negatively correlated with share price and positively correlated with earnings per share and earnings per unit. Tobin's Q is positively correlated with financial leverage, indicating that firms that raise capital through debt are more likely to create value for investors. The research indicates that market-dependent enterprises are more susceptible to the unpredictability of monetary policy. Eventually, the findings suggest that consistent and transparent economic policies may increase the efficiency of corporate investment.

In this paper, we study the performance of various deep reinforcement learning algorithms to enhance the energy management system of a microgrid. We propose a novel microgrid model that consists of a wind turbine generator, an energy storage system, a set of thermostatically controlled loads, a set of price-responsive loads, and a connection to the main grid. The proposed energy management system is designed to coordinate among the different flexible sources by defining the priority resources, direct demand control signals, and electricity prices. Seven deep reinforcement learning algorithms were implemented and are empirically compared in this paper. The numerical results show that the deep reinforcement learning algorithms differ widely in their ability to converge to optimal policies. By adding an experience replay and a semi-deterministic training phase to the well-known asynchronous advantage actor-critic algorithm, we achieved the highest model performance as well as convergence to near-optimal policies.

In this paper, mean-field type games between two players with backward stochastic dynamics are defined and studied. They make up a class of non-zero-sum differential games where the players' state dynamics solve backward stochastic differential equations (BSDEs) that depend on the marginal distributions of player states. Players try to minimize their individual cost functionals, also depending on the marginal state distributions. Under some regularity conditions, we derive necessary and sufficient conditions for existence of Nash equilibria. Player behavior is illustrated by numerical examples, and is compared to a centrally planned solution where the social cost, the sum of player costs, is minimized. The inefficiency of a Nash equilibrium, compared to socially optimal behavior, is quantified by the so-called price of anarchy. Numerical simulations of the price of anarchy indicate how the improvement in social cost achievable by a central planner depends on problem parameters.

This article discusses the outcomes of a quantitative analysis of the competitiveness of grain and its recycling in the countries-members of the Eurasian Economic Union (EEU) through econometric panel data models. The analysis is based on the data of public authorities’ statistics of the countries-members of the EEU, as well as the United Nations Comtrade Database which is a repository of official international trade statistics. The results of the analysis allow to assess the level of competitiveness of produced agro-food products in the countries-members of the EEU and determine the extent to which various factors affect it. The research conclusions can be used to develop and adjust the agreed with the agro-food policy in the EEU.