In this note we describe a new approach to the option pricing problem by introducing the notion of the safe (and acceptable) for the writer price of an option, in contrast to the fair price used in the Black-Scholes model. Our starting point is that the option pricing problem is closely related with the hedging problem by practical techniques. Recalling that the Black - Scholes model does not give us the price of the option but the initial value of a replicating portfolio we observe easily that has a serious disadvantage because assumes the building of this replicating portfolio continuously in time and this is a disadvantage of any model that assumes such a construction. Here we study the problem from the practical point of view concerning mainly the over the counter market. This approach is not affected by the number of the underlying assets and is particularly useful for incomplete markets. In the usual Black-Scholes or binomial or some other approaches one assumes that one can invest or borrow at the same risk free rate $r>0$ which is not true in general. Even if this is the case one can immediately observes that this risk free rate is not a universal constant but is different among different people or institutions. So, the fair price of an option is not so much fair! Moreover, the two sides are not, in general, equivalent against the risk therefore the notion of a fair price has no meaning at all. We also define a variant of the usual binomial model, by estimating safe upward and downward rates $u,d$, trying to give a cheaper safe or acceptable price for the option.

Background: A novel virulent coronavirus is what causes Novel Corona-virus Disease 2019 (nCOVID 19). It results in severe respiratory distress syndrome and potentially fatal infectious pneumonia. On March 12, 2020, the World Health Organization first labeled it a pandemic, which was then followed on the same day by a community health emergency of global concern. Vaccines against this deadly virus are now being created. Many drugs with different uses have been repurposed and tested for the prevention and treatment of the infection. Objective: The purpose of this review is to provide an in-depth analysis of data on possible pharmacological targets and available coronavirus treatments. Methods: Following the review protocol, a literature search was conducted. Results: Chloroquine phosphate and hydroxychloroquine, Remdesivir, and Lopinavir-Ritonavir in combination with or without interferon and convalescent plasma therapy are the main treatment candidates, according to the World Health Organization. This review article has elaborated on the current evidence of prospective pharmacological targets and related ongoing research, including inflammatory chemicals, bioactive peptides, beta cells, platelets, and the Angiotensin I Converting Enzyme 2 Receptor. This information was gathered from published journals. In addition, stories of medications and biological products like interferons and vaccinations that are utilized or could be utilized have been provided. Conclusion: There are a variety of pharmacological targets and therapeutic strategies that need more study.

In this note we study the binomial model applied to European, American and Bermudan type of derivatives. Our aim is to give the necessary and sufficient conditions under which we can define a fair value via replicating portfolios for any derivative using simple mathematical arguments and without using no arbitrage techniques. Giving suitable definitions we are able to define rigorously the fair value of any derivative without using concepts from probability theory or stochastic analysis therefore is suitable for students or young researchers. It will be clear in our analysis that if $e^{r \delta} \notin [d,u]$ then we can not define a fair value by any means for any derivative while if $d \leq e^{r \delta} \leq u$ we can. Therefore the definition of the fair value of a derivative is not so closely related with the absence of arbitrage. In the usual probabilistic point of view we assume that $d < e^{r \delta} < u$ in order to define the fair value but it is not clear what we can (or we can not) do in the cases where $e^{r \delta} \leq d$ or $e^{r \delta} \geq u$.

Hybrid Classical-Quantum computing has already arrived at several commercial quantum computers, offered to researchers and businesses. Here, applications are made to a model of financial options, Statistical Mechanics of Financial Markets (SMFM). These applications were published in many papers since the 1980's. This project only uses Classical (super-)computers to include quantum features of these models. Since 1989, an optimization code, Adaptive Simulated Annealing (ASA), has been to fit parameters in such models. Since 2015, a path-integral algorithm, PATHINT, used previously to accurately describe several systems in several disciplines, has been generalized from 1 dimension to N dimensions, and from classical to quantum systems, qPATHINT. Published papers have described the use of qPATHINT to neocortical interactions and financial options. The classical space by SMFM applies nonlinear nonequilibrium multivariate statistical mechanics to fit parameters in conditional short-time probability distributions, while the quantum space described by qPATHINT deals specifically with quantum systems, e.g., quantum money. This project thereby demonstrates how some hybrid classical-quantum systems may be calculated quite well using only classical (super-)computers.

Background: Forecasting nonlinear stochastic systems most often is quite difficult, without giving in to temptations to simply simplify models for the sake of permitting simple computations. Objective: Here, two basic algorithms, Adaptive Simulated Annealing (ASA) and path-integral codes PATHINT/PATHTREE (and their quantum generalizations qPATHINT/qPATHTREE) are offered to detail such systems. Method: ASA and PATHINT/PATHTREE have been effective to forecast properties in three disparate disciplines in neuroscience, financial markets, and combat analysis. Applications are described for COVID-19. Results: Results of detailed calculations have led to new results and insights not previously obtained. Conclusion: These 3 applications give strong support to a quite generic application of these tools to stochastic nonlinear systems.

Failure to adapt to climate change is currently considered one of the major threats affecting humanity. Hence, much effort is being put into discussing adaptation approaches. While many adaptation options have been identified, the academic literature does not present a simple process that local councils and community members can use to rank adaptation options. In this context, community members participating on planning processes are presented with many adaptation options, but with no objective approach for selection, which adds challenge to the planning process. With the objective of addressing this issue, this work proposes a simple equation that allows calculating the applicability level of adaptation options. Results can then be plotted into graphs that allow correlating adaptation options and applicability level, which can be easily understood by community members. To develop such equation, this work built on existing sophisticated models from where the indicators used on the equation were identified, as well as the relationship between them. A scale was proposed to help on identifying adaptation options that should be implemented on the short, medium and long term, and options that should only be implemented if the circumstance change.

Background: Forecasting nonlinear stochastic systems most often is quite difficult, without giving in to temptations to simply simplify models for the sake of permitting simple computations. Objective: Here, two basic algorithms, Adaptive Simulated Annealing (ASA) and path-integral codes PATHINT/PATHTREE (and their quantum generalizations qPATHINT/qPATHTREE) are offered to detail such systems. Method: ASA and PATHINT/PATHTREE have been effective to forecast properties in three disparate disciplines in neuroscience, financial markets, and combat analysis. Applications are described for COVID-19. Results: Results of detailed calculations have led to new results and insights not previously obtained. Conclusion: These 3 applications give strong support to a quite generic application of these tools to stochastic nonlinear systems.

This paper introduces the exponential time differencing (ETD) technique as a numerical method to solve efficiently American vulnerable options pricing. We address several challenges, including removing cross-derivative terms through appropriate transformations, treating early-exercise opportunities using the penalty method, and substituting fixed boundary conditions with corresponding one-sided finite differences. The proposed method is shown to be both accurate and efficient through numerical experiments, which also compare the results with existing methods and analyse the numerical stability and convergence rate.

Vulvovaginitis is a common and potentially serious gynecological condition that can have a significant impact on the physical, emotional, and social well-being of young women and adolescents. The condition is caused by a variety of factors, including bacterial, viral, and fungal infections, as well as hormonal changes and other underlying conditions. The symptoms of vulvovaginitis can include itching, burning, pain, discharge, and bleeding, which can impact the quality of life of affected individuals. This article examines the effect of Vulvovaginitis on Nigerian students residing in dormitories, highlighting the causes, symptoms, complications, and treatment options. The study emphasizes the need for improved sanitation, education on personal hygiene, and easy access to effective treatment to mitigate the spread of this infection.

The research presented in this article is based on a strategic approach to a rural area in the mountainous region of Romania and is underwritten by specialists in the economy of mountainous regions in order to elaborate relevant solutions to complex problems relating to sustainable development. In essence, the research underlines and promotes the particularities of performing research for the identification and valuation of endogenous resources, that is, creating relevant strategic options for the durable development of the mountainous region, centered on the renewal of economic activities related to the existent endogenous resources, by using methods, work techniques, and instruments of strategic analysis. These factors are subordinate to the process of harmonization to the requirements of community development and environmental protection according to the new strategy for the development of the European Union 2020 (European Green Pact). This pact also emphasizes the necessity of involving the different factor categories of local accountability, promotion, activation, and the development of specific economic activities of different local contexts of sustainability. The research methodology used involves a case study whose complexity necessitated the use of quality and quantity research methods in order to underline specific elements of the rural area in the Romanian mountainous region. Specifically, we used a strategic diagnosis of the Romanian mountainous region using the PESTEL and SWOT models. In order to have relevant strategic options available, the continuity of research was achieved through the use of SOR analysis, creating a problem tree and an objectives tree.

Rosacea is a chronic inflammatory skin disease characterized by recurrent erythema, flushing, telangiectasia, papules, pustules, and phymatous changes in the central area of the face. Patients with this condition often experience a significant negative impact on their quality of life, self-esteem, and overall well-being. Despite its prevalence, the pathogenesis of rosacea is not yet fully understood. Recent research advances are reshaping our understanding of the underlying mechanisms of rosacea, and treatment options based on the pathophysiological perspective hold promise to improve patient outcomes and reduce incidence. In this comprehensive review, we investigate the pathogenesis of rosacea in-depth, with a focus on emerging and novel mechanisms, and provide an up-to-date overview of therapeutic strategies that target the diverse pathogenic mechanisms of rosacea. Lastly, we discuss potential future research directions aimed at enhancing our understanding of the condition and developing effective treatments.

The purpose of this paper is to evaluate the timing of innovative investment in technology product life cycles using a compound binomial option with management flexibility. Considering the business cycles changes in the macroeconomic will affect consumer purchasing power. The focus is how to evaluate the optimal investment strategy and the project value. It was applied to different product stages (three stages including production innovation, manufacture innovation, and operation innovation) and factored to different risks to build a technology innovation strategy model. An aim of this study is the options premium of the best strategy timing for each innovation stage. Its application of the compound binomial options for the manufacture innovation will only be considered after the execution of the production innovation. The same condition is applied to the operation innovation, which will only be considered after the execution of the manufacture innovation. Then, this paper constructs the dynamic investment sequential decision model, assesses the feasibility of an investment strategy, and makes a decision on the appropriate project value and options premium for each stage under the possible change of Gross Domestic Product (GDP). This paper investigates the product life cycle innovation investment topic by using the compound binomial options method and will provide a more flexible strategy decision compared with other trend forecast criteria.

Of course, now we know that quantum mechanics has been a fundamental structure of our world since our universe came into being. However, it has been only a century since the experimental and theoretical discovery of quantum mechanics and its extensions into many implications and applications. In particular, there are implications across many disciplines that most likely will affect education, health, security, etc. Examples are given of the need for starting education as early as possible in schools, the use of nano-robots to deliver drugs targeted to specific molecular sites, to developing new cryptographic systems to safeguard our privacy.

This research article provides criticism and arguments why the canonical framework for derivatives pricing is incomplete and why the delta-hedging approach is not appropriate. An argument is put forward, based on the efficient market hypothesis, why a proper risk-adjusted discount rate should enter into the Black-Scholes model instead of the risk-free rate. The resulting pricing equation for derivatives and in particular the formula for European call options is then shown to depend explicitly on the drift of the underlying asset, which is following a geometric Brownian motion. It is conjectured that with the generalized model, the predicted results by the model could be closer to real data. The adjusted pricing model could partly also explain the mystery of volatility smile. The present model also provides answers to many finance professionals and academics who have been intrigued by the risk-neutral features of the original Black-Scholes pricing framework. The model provides generally different fair values for financial derivatives compared to the Black-Scholes model. In particular, the present model predicts that the original Black-Scholes model tends to undervalue for example European call options.

While entropy was introduced in the second half of the 19th century in the international vocabulary as a scientific term, in the 20th century it became common in colloquial use. Popular imagination has loaded “entropy” with almost every negative quality in the universe, in life and in society, with a dominant meaning of disorder and disorganization. Exploring the history of the term and many different approaches on it, we show that entropy has a universal stochastic definition which is not disorder. The accompanying principle of maximum entropy, which lies behind the Second Law, gives explanatory and inferential power to the concept and promotes entropy as the mother of creativity and evolution. As social sciences are often contaminated by subjectivity and ideological influences, we try to explore whether the maximum entropy, applied to the distribution of wealth quantified by annual income, can give an objective description. Using publicly available income data, we show that the income distribution is consistent with the principle of the maximum entropy. The increase of entropy is associated to increase of society’s wealth yet a standardized form of entropy can be used to quantify inequality. Historically, technology has played a major role in development and increase of the entropy of income. Such findings are contrary to the theories of ecological economics and other theories which use the term entropy in a Malthusian perspective.

Scientists observe, discover, justify and eventually share their findings with the scientific community. Dissemination is an integral aspect of scientific discovery since discoveries which go unnoticed have no or little impact on science. Today, peer-review is part of this process of scientific dissemination as it contributes proactively to the quality of a scientific article. As the numbers of scientific journals and scientific articles published therein are increasing steady, processes such as the single-blind or double-blind peer review are facing a near collapse situation. In fact, these traditional forms of reviewing have reached their limits and, because of this, are also increasingly considered as unfair, sloppy, superficial and even biased. In this manuscript we propose forms of Post Publication Public Peer Review (P4R) as valuable alternatives to the traditional blind peer review system. We describe how the journal Sci has explored such an approach and provide first empirical evidence of the benefits and also challenges such a P4R approach is facing.

In this study we propose a semi-parametric, parsimonious Value at Risk forecasting model, based on quantile regression and machine learning methods, combined with readily available market prices of option contracts from the over-the-counter foreign exchange rate interbank market. We aim at improving existing methods for VaR prediction of currency investments using machine learning. We employ two different methods - ensemble methods and neural networks. Explanatory variables are implied volatilities with plausible economic interpretation. The forward-looking nature of the model, achieved by the application of implied volatilities as risk factors, ensures that new information is rapidly reflected in Value at Risk estimates. To the best of our knowledge, this paper is the first to utilize information in the volatility surface, combined with machine learning and quantile regression, for VaR prediction of currency investments. The proposed ensemble models achieve good estimates across all quantiles. The light gra-dient-boosting machine model and the categorical boosting model both yield estimates which are better than, or equal to, those of the benchmark model. The neural network models are in general quite unstable.

This paper examines cognitive biases which affect the ability of decision makers to make rational decisions in an organizational context. The motivation for this analysis begins with the observation of catastrophic accidents caused by human error but in an organizational context. This paper expands on the concept of cognitive bias to define organizational biases which are the factors that affect decisions in an organizational context. The paper distinguishes between organizational biases, which are the focus of this paper, and individual biases, which are biases experienced by individuals but may have organizational consequences. The purpose of this paper is to identify methods to mitigate the risks of organizational accidents, accidents which involve many people operating at different levels of an organization. The methodology is to identify those decisions that would address the specific organizational biases. The focus of this paper is the decisions for mitigating the risks associated with decisions in an organizational context. Results are shown for seven organizational biases, six specific case studies, and four decision options. This paper concludes that organizational biases are intrinsically different from individual biases and that these differences lead to different decision options from those that mitigate individual biases; however, they may exist concurrently.

Climate change causes weather extremes to rise in frequency and severity, which could have detrimental effects on human life, property and livelihood activity. There is significant uncertainty about the influences of anthropogenic climate change on the occurrence and severity of small-scale, sudden onset weather phenomena such as hailstorms and subsequent loss and damage. Yet, several studies indicate that there is an apparent stable connection between hailstorm activity and hailstorm damage. Severe hailstorm events are observed in Bangladesh in recent years, which are, in fact, rapid-onset disasters but low exposure in terms of giving government response and media consideration. Hence this study examines potential impacts and management strategies for loss and damage resulting from hailstorm events among smallholder farmers in Kurigram District's Phulbari Upazila of Bangladesh. Firstly, the direct and long term economic and non-economic loss and damage caused by the hailstorm on human well-beings and livelihoods were assessed. Then, the study evaluated the current adaptation, coping, management and response strategies at the institutional and community level in the context of such extreme events. Finally, a regulatory framework and implementation approaches had suggested achieving the country's resilience against disaster and climate change-induced loss and damage. Participatory Vulnerability Analysis, Key Informant Interviews and Sample Surveys accumulated the primary data for the study. In addition, secondary data were collected through analysis of literature, published and unpublished scientific articles and media reports, etc. This research outcome will help countries develop a guideline to address climate change and disaster-related loss and damage.

Ethanol produced from various biobased sources (bioethanol) has been gaining high attention lately due to its potential to cut down net emissions of carbon dioxide while reducing burgeoning world dependence on fossil fuels. Global ethanol production has increased more than six-fold from 18 billion liters at the turn of the century to 110 billion liters in 2019 (1,2). Sugar cane and corn have been used as the major feedstocks for ethanol production. Lignocellulosic biomass has recently been considered as another potential feedstock. This paper reviews recent developments and current status of commercial production of ethanol across the world. The review includes the ethanol production processes used for each type of feedstock, both currently practiced at commercial scale and newly developed technologies, and production trends in various regions and countries in the world.

Motivated by a common Mathematical Finance topic, this paper surveys several results concerning windings of 2-dimensional processes, including planar Brownian motion, complex-valued Ornstein-Uhlenbeck processes and planar stable processes. In particular, we present Spitzer's asymptotic Theorem for each case. We also relate this study to the pricing of Asian options.

The pH-related metabolic paradigm has rapidly grown in cancer research and treatment. In this contribution, this recent oncological perspective has been laterally for the first time in order to integrate neurodegeneration within the energetics of the cancer acid-base conceptual frame. At all levels of study, molecular, biochemical, metabolic and clinical, the intimate nature of both processes appears to be opposite mechanisms occurring at the far ends of a physiopathological intracellular pH/extracellular pH (pHi/pHe) spectrum. This wide-ranged original approach now permits an increase in our understanding of these opposite processes, cancer and neurodegeneration, and, as a consequence, allows to propose new avenues of treatment based upon the intracellular and microenvironmental hydrogen ion dynamics regulating and deregulating the biochemistry and metabolism of both cancer and neural cells. Under the same perspective, the etiopathogenesis and special characteristics of multiple sclerosis (MS) becomes an excellent model for the study of neurodegenerative diseases and, utilizing this pioneering approach, we find that MS appears to be a metabolic disease even before an autoimmune one. Also within this paradigm, several important aspects of MS, from mitochondrial failure to microbiota functional abnormalities, are analyzed in depth.