Most studies modelling population mobility and the spread of infectious diseases, particularly using meta-population-multi-patched models, tend to focus on theoretical properties and numerical simulations of such models. There is relatively scanty literature published on fit, inference and uncertainty quantification on epidemic models with population mobility. In this research, we have used three estimation techniques to solve an inverse problem and quantify its uncertainty on a human mobility-based multi-patched epidemic model, using mobile phone sensing data and COVID-19 confirmed positive cases in Hermosillo, Mexico. First, we have utilized a Brownian bridge model using mobile phone GPS data to estimate residence and mobility parameters of the epidemic model. In the second step, we have estimated the optimal model epidemiological parameters by deterministically inverting the model using a Darwinian inspired evolutionary algorithm (EA) known as the genetic algorithm (GA). The third part of the analysis involves performing inference and uncertainty quantification on the epidemic model using two Bayesian Monte Carlo sampling methods: t-walk and Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC). The results show that the estimated model parameters and incidence adequately fit the observed daily COVID-19 incidence in Hermosillo. Moreover, the estimated parameters from HMC result into large credible intervals, improving their coverage for the observed and predicted daily incidences. We also observe improved predictions when using multi-patch model with mobility against the single-patch model.

In complex systems constrained by multiple factors, it is of great significance to accurately identify the key influencing factors for mastering the evolution and development law of the system and obtaining scientific decision-making suggestions or schemes. At present, the method based on experimental simulation is limited by the difficulty of system model construction; the method based on decision trial and Evaluation laboratory (DEMATEL) involves a wide range of subjects and is greatly influenced by subjective factors. In view of this, we propose a novel model based on heuristic causal inference. The model uses the FCI algorithm with prior knowledge to learn the global causal network among multiple factors of the complex system. The causal effect among variables in the causal network is calculated by using heuristic causal inference method. Specifically, the causal path contribution degree of cause variable to target variable is calculated to replace the causal effect of each cause variable to target variable. The key influencing factors in the system are screened out according to the contribution degree of causal pathways. Based on the dataset generated in the production process of a semiconductor manufacturing system, we carried out simulation experiments, identified several factors that have a key impact on product quality, and proved the feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed model.

This paper presents a novel approach for individual design perception modeling using the YUKI-trained Fuzzy Inference System. The study focuses on understanding how individuals perceive design based on personality traits, particularly openness to experience. The proposed YUKI algorithm optimizes the FCM clustering algorithm, enhancing its ability to handle uncertain and imprecise data. The YUKI-trained FIS generates several Sugeno-type FIS models to predict design perception, to minimize the Root Mean Squared Error between the model prediction and the actual design perception of participants. The results demonstrate that the YUKI-trained FIS offers more accurate predictions compared to the traditional FCM-trained FIS, and the RMSE values for individual design perceptions fall within a satisfactory range of 0.84 to 1.32. The YUKI-trained FIS proves effective in clustering individuals based on their level of openness, providing insights into how personality traits influence design perception.

Inspired by the reflective and deliberative control mechanisms used in cognitive architectures such as SOAR and Sigma, we propose an alternative decision mechanism driven by architectural appraisals allowing robots to overcome impasses. The presented work builds on and improves on our previous work on a generally applicable decision mechanism with roots in the Standard Model of the Mind and the Generalized Cognitive Hour-glass Model. The proposed decision mechanism provides automatic context-dependent switching between exploration-oriented, goal-oriented, and backtracking behavior, allowing a robot to overcome impasses. A simulation study of two applications utilizing the proposed decision mechanism is presented demonstrating the applicability of the proposed decision mechanism.

The effectiveness of Fuzzy Inference Systems (FISs) in manipulating uncertainty and nonlinearity makes them a subject of significant interest for decision-making in embedded systems. Accordingly, optimizing FIS hardware improves its performance, efficiency, and capabilities, leading to a better user experience, increased productivity, and cost savings. To be compatible with the limited power budget in most embedded systems, this paper presents a framework to realize ultra-low power FIS hardware. It supports optimizations for both conventional arithmetic as well as MSDF-computing to be highly consistent with MSDF-based sensors. In MSDF-computing FIS all the processes of fuzzification, inference, and defuzzification are done on serially coming data bits. To demonstrate the efficiency of the proposed framework, we utilized Matlab, Chisel3, and Vivado to implement it from high-level descriptions of FIS to hardware synthesis. We also developed a Scala library in Chisel3 to establish a connection between these tools, bridging the gap, and facilitating design space exploration at the arithmetic level. Furthermore, we realized an FIS for the navigation of autonomous mobile robots in unknown environments. Synthesis results show the superiority of the output of our suggested design framework in terms of resource usage as well as power and energy consumption compared to the Matlab HDL code generator output.

The hybridization of conventional thermal power plants by incorporation of renewable energy systems has witnessed widespread adoption in recent years. This trend aims not only to mitigate carbon emissions but also to enhance the overall efficiency and performance of these power generation facilities. However, calculating the performance of such intricate systems using fundamental thermodynamic equations proves to be both laborious and time-intensive. Nevertheless, possessing accurate and real-time insights into their performance is of utmost significance to ensure optimal plant operation, facilitate decision-making, and streamline power production planning. In this paper, we delve into the application of machine learning techniques, particularly hybrid methodologies, to predict the performance of power plants. Specifically, we employ three approaches: the Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS), the ANFIS optimized via Particle Swarm Optimization (ANFIS-PSO), and the ANFIS optimized through Genetic Algorithm (ANFIS-GA). These techniques are alternatively applied to a complex hybrid thermal power plant, namely an Integrated Solar Combined Cycle Power Plant (ISCCPP). This ISCCPP comprises a steam turbine section, a gas turbine section, and a concentrated solar power system utilizing troughs as collectors. The energy transfer fluid, in conjunction with exhaust from the gas turbine section, heats water within a vessel or steam generator, producing steam to propel the steam turbine's rotor. Electricity generation is facilitated by both gas and steam turbines, which are coupled to a generator. The findings of this study underscore the accuracy and appropriateness of ANFIS-based models in evaluating and predicting the performance of intricate hybrid power plants. The ANFIS model exhibited an impressive overall coefficient of correlation of 0.9991. Notably, the integration of evolutionary algorithms (PSO and GA) into the ANFIS framework elevated model performance, yielding correlation coefficients of 0.9994 for ANFIS-PSO and 0.9997 for ANFIS-GA. It is noteworthy that ANFIS-GA demonstrated superior predictive capability. The modeling framework developed in this research offers valuable support to designers, energy managers, and decision-makers. It provides a robust and dependable tool to assess the performance of hybrid thermal power plants, which are poised for a global surge in numbers amid the ongoing energy transition.

A formulation of the Density Functional Theory (DFT) is constructed as an application of the method of maximum entropy for an inhomogeneous fluid in thermal equilibrium. The use of entropy as a systematic method to generate optimal approximations is extended from the classical to the quantum domain. This process introduces a family of trial density operators that are parametrized by the particle density. The optimal density operator is that which maximizes the quantum entropy relative to the exact canonical density operator. This approach reproduces the variational principle of DFT and allows a simple proof of the Hohenberg-Kohn theorem at finite temperature. Finally, as an illustration, we discuss the Kohn-Sham approximation scheme at finite temperature

The probability distribution of the interevent time between two successive earthquakes has been subject of numerous studies due to its key role in seismic hazard assessment. In recent decades, many distributions have been considered and there has been a long debate about the possible universality of the shape of this distribution when the interevent times are suitably rescaled. In this work we aim to find out if there is a link between the different phases of a seismic cycle and the variations in the distribution that best fits the interevent times. To do this, we consider the seismic activity related to the Mw 6.1 L’Aquila earthquake that occurred on April 6, 2009 in central Italy by analyzing the sequence of events recorded from April 2005 to July 2009, and then the seismic activity linked to the sequence of the Amatrice-Norcia earthquakes of Mw 6 and 6.5 respectively and recorded in the period from January 2009 to June 2018. We take into account some of the most studied distributions in the literature: q-exponential, q-generalized gamma, gamma and exponential distributions and, according to the Bayesian paradigm, we compare the value of their posterior marginal likelihood in shifting time windows with a fixed number of data. The results suggest that the distribution providing the best performance changes over time and its variations may be associated with different phases of the seismic crisis.

The only cases where exact distributions of estimates are known is for samples from exponential families, and then only for special functions of the parameters. So statistical inference was traditionally based on the asymptotic normality of estimates. To improve on this we need the {\it Edgeworth expansion} for the distribution of the standardized estimate. This is an expansion in $n^{-1/2}$ about the normal distribution, where $n$ is typically the sample size. The 1st few terms of this expansion were originally given for the special case of a sample mean. In earlier work we derived it for {\it any } standard estimate, hugely expanding its application. We call an estimate $\hat{w}$ of an unknown vector $w\in R^p$, a {\it standard estimate}, if $E\ \hat{w}\rightarrow w$ as $n\rightarrow \infty$, and for $r\geq 1$ the $r$th order cumulants of $\hat{w}$ have magnitude $n^{1-r}$ and can be expanded in $n^{-1}.$ Here we give another huge extension. We give the expansion of the distribution of {\it any smooth function} of $\hat{w}$, say $t(\hat{w})\in R^q,$ giving its distribution to $n^{-5/2}$. We do this by showing that $t(\hat{w})$, is a standard estimate of $t(w)$. This provides far more accurate approximations for the distribution of $t(\hat{w})$ than its asymptotic normality. %NOT USED: The building blocks of the Edgeworth expansions are the {\it cumulant coefficients } of the estimate. These cumulant coefficients are also needed for bias reduction, Bayes estimates and confidence regions. We give {\it chain rules} for the cumulant coefficients of $t(\hat{w})$ in terms of those of $\hat{w}$ and the derivatives of $t(w)$, up to those needed for 5th order Edgeworth expansions for $t(\hat{w})$ and its {\it tilted expansion}, useful for the tail of the distribution.

Waste heat recovery stands out as a promising technique to tackle both energy shortages and environmental pollution. Currently, this valuable resource, generated from processes like fuel combustion or chemical reactions, is often dissipated into the environment, despite its potential to significantly contribute to the economy. To harness this untapped potential, a travelling-wave thermo-acoustic generator has been designed and subjected to comprehensive experimental analysis. Fifty-two data corresponding to different working conditions of the system were extracted to build ANN, ANFIS and ANN-PSO models. Evaluation of performance metrics reveals that the ANN-PSO model demonstrates the highest predictive accuracy (R^2=0.9959), particularly in relation to output voltage. This research demonstrates the potential of machine learning techniques for the analysis of thermo-acoustic systems. By doing so, it is possible to get an insight into nonlinearities inherent to thermo-acoustic systems. This advancement empowers researchers to forecast the performance characteristics of alternative configurations with a heightened level of precision.

This paper presents a method of fusion of identification (attribute) information provided by two types of sensors: combined primary and secondary (IFF) surveillance radars and ESM (Electronic Support Measures). In the first section, the basic taxonomy of attribute identification is adopted in accordance with the standards of STANAG 1241 ed. 5 and STANAG 1241 ed. 6 (draft). These standards provide the following basic values of the attribute identifications: FRIEND, HOSTILE, NEUTRAL, UNKNOWN and additional values: ASSUMED FRIEND and SUSPECT. The basis of theoretical considerations is Dezert-Smarandache theory (DSmT) of inference. The paper presents and practically uses for combining identification information from different ESM sensors and radars six information fusion rules proposed by DSmT - the Proportional Conflict Redistribution rules (PCR1, PCR2, PCR3, PCR4, PCR5 and PCR6). In the paper, rules of determining attribute information by ESM sensor equipped with the data base of radar emitters are presented. It was proposed that each signal vector sent by the ESM sensor contained an extension specifying a randomized identification declaration (hypothesis) - basic belief assignment (BBA). The paper also presents a model for determining the basic belief assignment for a combined primary and secondary radar. Results of the PCR rules of sensor information combining for different scenarios of radio-electronic situation (deterministic and Monte Carlo) are presented in the final part of the paper. They confirm the legitimacy of the use of Dezert-Smarandache theory into information fusion for primary radars, secondary radars and ESM sensors.

In this paper we explore the known connection among sustainability, resilience, and well-being within the framework of active inference. Initially, we revisit how the notions of well-being and resilience intersect within active inference before defining sustainability. We adopt a holistic concept of sustainability denoting the enduring capacity to meet needs over time without depleting crucial resources. It extends beyond material wealth to encompass community networks, labor, and knowledge. Using the Free Energy Principle, we can emphasize the role of fostering resource renewal, harmonious system-entity exchanges, and practices that encourage self-organization and resilience as pathways to achieving sustainability, both in an agent and in collectives. We start by connecting Active Inference with well-being, building on exsiting work. We then attempt to link resilience with sustainability, asserting that resilience alone is insufficient for sustainable outcomes. While crucial for absorbing shocks and stresses, resilience must be intrinsically linked with sustainability to ensure that adaptive capacities do not merely perpetuate existing vulnerabilities. Rather, it should facilitate transformative processes that address the root causes of unsustainability. Sustainability, therefore, must manifest across extended timescales and all system strata, from individual components to the broader system, to uphold ecological integrity, economic stability, and social well-being. We explain how sustainability manifests at the level of an agent, and then at the level of collectives and systems. To model and quantify the interdependencies between resources and their impact on overall system sustainability, we introduce the application of network theory and dynamical systems theory. We emphasize the optimization of precision or learning rates through the active inference framework, advocating for an approach that fosters the elastic and plastic resilience necessary for long-term sustainability and abundance.

When separation to the parameters of interest appears below resolution limit of the estimator, the ambiguity arises whether two parameter estimates relate to one source emitted twice or two close sources emitted once. In the paper, novel Bayes technique aimed to identify one/two sources below resolution limit by the pair of Gaussian estimates of a source(s) planar location as parameter is developed. Prior probabilities of the hypotheses on one/two sources are available from the analysis of physical characteristics of the emissions, assuming that they can be equally probable. The identifier recalculates a posteriori these probabilities subject to a distance between sources. It is applied to distinguish two location estimates obtained in the planar time difference of arrival mobile communication network. The work of the identifier is studied in the domain of closely spaced network users where covariance matrices of estimates are sufficiently approximated by the constant. The application gives an example of how the identifier revises the prior probabilities and can change thereby the initial preference of a hypothesis with a distance between users in some cases.