Bootstrap resampling techinques, introduced by Efron and Rubin, can be presented in a general Bayesian framework, approximating the statistical distribution of a statistical functional φ(F), where F is a random distribution function. Efron’s and Rubin’s bootstrap procedures can be extended introducing an informative prior through the Proper Bayesian bootstrap. In this paper different bootstrap techniques are used and compared in predictive classification and regression models based on ensemble approaches, i.e. bagging models involving decision trees. Proper Bayesian bootstrap, proposed by Muliere and Secchi, is used to sample the posterior distribution over trees, introducing prior distributions on the covariates and the target variable. The results obtained are compared with respect to other competitive procedures employing different bootstrap techniques. The empirical analysis reports the results obtained on simulated and real data.

This paper presents a comparison of the predictive capability of three hydrological models in a heavily influenced catchment in Peninsula India. In catchments where there is a high dependence on both streamflow and groundwater to meet demands, it is of importance to capture the catchment processes correctly. This study highlights the performance evaluation of a multi-model ensemble consisting of GWAVA (Global Water AVailability Assessment) model, SWAT (Soil Water Assessment Tool) and VIC (Variable Infiltration Capacity) model for comparative purposes and the key catchment hydrological processes. The three models were compared in several sub-catchments in the upstream reaches of the Cauvery river catchment. Model performances for monthly streamflow simulations from 1983 – 2005 were analysed for five catchments in the Upper Cauvery. The analysis was undertaken using Nash- Sutcliffe Efficiency, Kling- Gupta Efficiency and percent bias. Additionally, a mean ensemble is presented. The application of a multi-model ensemble approach can be useful in overcoming the uncertainties associated with individual models. The ensemble mean has a better predictive ability in catchments with reservoirs than the individual models. Utilising multiple models could be a suitable methodology to offset uncertainty in input data and poor reservoir operation functionality within individual models. This study has highlighted the importance of an accurate spatial representation of precipitation for input into hydrological models and comprehensive reservoir functionality is paramount to obtaining good results in this region.

The progressive impairment analysis in gait from neurological diseases patients such as Hereditary Ataxias (HA) has been carried out using gait data collected with movement sensors. This research is focused on finding the minimum amount required of gait features to recognize efficiently and less intrusive way, HA patients based on data collected with iPhone movement sensors placed on the ankles from 14 HA patients and 14 healthy people. A twofold proposal is made , first a local minimum prominent peak criterion to find out the starting point of each stride, to get 10-stride window about which 56 spatial-temporal features are derived; second a search strategy based on Hill Climbing algorithm to reduce the number of gait features and sensors. The main results were the findings that with two gait patterns a 96% of classification accuracy was achieved by using K-Nearest Neighbors (KNN) and Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP) algorithms, but in addition, MLP only right ankle sensor patterns were required which also allows to reduce the intrusion.

The classifier system proposed in this work combines the dissimilarity spaces produced by a set of Siamese neural networks (SNNs) designed using 4 different backbones, with different clustering techniques for training SVMs for automated animal audio classification. The system is evaluated on two animal audio datasets: one for cat and another for bird vocalizations. Different clustering methods reduce the spectrograms in the dataset to a set of centroids that generate (in both a supervised and unsupervised fashion) the dissimilarity space through the Siamese networks. In addition to feeding the SNNs with spectrograms, additional experiments process the spectrograms using the Heterogeneous Auto-Similarities of Characteristics. Once the similarity spaces are computed, a vector space representation of each pattern is generated that is then trained on a Support Vector Machine (SVM) to classify a spectrogram by its dissimilarity vector. Results demonstrate that the proposed approach performs competitively (without ad-hoc optimization of the clustering methods) on both animal vocalization datasets. To further demonstrate the power of the proposed system, the best stand-alone approach is also evaluated on the challenging Dataset for Environmental Sound Classification (ESC50) dataset. The MATLAB code used in this study is available at https://github.com/LorisNanni.

Automated lying-posture tracking is important in preventing bed-related disorders such as pressure injuries, sleep apnea, and lower-back pain. Prior research studied in-bed lying posture tracking using sensors of different modalities (e.g., accelerometer and pressure sensors). However, there remain significant gaps in research about how to design efficient in-bed lying posture tracking systems. These gaps can be articulated through several research questions as follows. First, can we design a single-sensor, pervasive, and inexpensive system that can accurately detect lying postures? Second, what computational models are most effective in the accurate detection of lying postures? Finally, what physical configuration of the sensor system is most effective for lying posture tracking? To answer these important research questions, in this article, we propose a comprehensive approach to design a sensor system that uses a single accelerometer along with machine learning algorithms for in-bed lying posture classification. We design two categories of machine learning algorithms based on deep learning and traditional classification with handcrafted features to detect lying postures. We also investigate what wearing sites are most effective in accurate detection of lying postures. We extensively evaluate the performance of the proposed algorithms on nine different body locations and four human lying postures using two datasets. Our results show that a system with a single accelerometer can be used with either deep learning or traditional classifiers to accurately detect lying postures. The best models in our approach achieve an F-Score that ranges from 95.2% to 97.8% with a coefficient of variation from 0.03 to 0.05. The results also identify the thighs and chest as the most salient body sites for lying posture tracking. Our findings in this article suggest that because accelerometers are ubiquitous and inexpensive sensors, they can be a viable source of information for pervasive monitoring of in-bed postures.

This paper provides the state of the art of data science in economics. Through a novel taxonomy of applications and methods advances in data science are investigated. The data science advances are investigated in three individual classes of deep learning models, ensemble models, and hybrid models. Application domains include stock market, marketing, E-commerce, corporate banking, and cryptocurrency. Prisma method, a systematic literature review methodology is used to ensure the quality of the survey. The findings revealed that the trends are on advancement of hybrid models as more than 51% of the reviewed articles applied hybrid model. On the other hand, it is found that based on the RMSE accuracy metric, hybrid models had higher prediction accuracy than other algorithms. While it is expected the trends go toward the advancements of deep learning models.

While the use of crime data has been widely advocated in the literature, its availability is often limited to large urban cities and isolated databases tend not to allow for spatial comparisons. This paper presents an efficient machine learning framework capable of predicting spatial crime occurrences, without using past crime as a predictor, and at a relatively high resolution: the U.S. Census Block Group level. The proposed framework is based on an in-depth multidisciplinary literature review allowing the selection of 188 best-fit crime predictors from socio-economic, demographic, spatial, and environmental data. Such data are published periodically for the entire United States. The selection of the appropriate predictive model was made through a comparative study of different machine learning families of algorithms, including generalized linear models, deep learning, and ensemble learning. The gradient boosting model was found to yield the most accurate predictions for violent crimes, property crimes, motor vehicle thefts, vandalism, and the total count of crimes. Extensive experiments on real-world datasets of crimes reported in 11 U.S. cities demonstrated that the proposed framework achieves an accuracy of 73 and 77% when predicting property crimes and violent crimes, respectively.

Scattering hyperspectral technology is a nondestructive testing method with many advantages. Here, we propose a method to improve the accuracy of egg freshness, research the influence of incident angles of light source on the accuracy and explain its mechanism. A variety of weak classifiers classify eggs based on the spectra after preprocessing and feature wavelength extraction to obtain three classifiers with the highest accuracy. The three classifiers are used as metamodels of stacking ensemble learning to improve the highest accuracy from 96.25% to 100%. Moreover, the highest accuracy of scattering, reflection, transmission and mixed hyperspectral of eggs are 100.00%, 88.75%, 95.00% and 96.25%, respectively, indicating that the scattering hyperspectral for egg freshness detection is better than that of the others. In addition, the accuracy is inversely proportional to the angle of incidence due that the smaller the incident angle, the camera collects a larger proportion of scattering light, which contains more biochemical parameters of an egg than that of reflection and transmission. These results are very important for improving the accuracy of non-destructive testing and selecting the incident angle of the light source, and have potential applications in online non-destructive testing.

There are uncertainties associated with every phase of the stock assessment process, ranging from the collection of data, assessment model choice, model assumptions and interpretation of risk to the implementation of management advice. The dynamics of fish populations are complex, and our incomplete understanding of those dynamics (and limited observations of important mechanisms) necessitate that models are simpler than nature. The aim is for the model to capture enough of the dynamics to accurately estimate trends and abundance and to provide advice to managers about sustainable harvests. The \textit{status quo} approach to assessment modelling has been to identify the `best' model, based on diagnostics and model selection criteria, and to generate advice from that model, mostly ignoring advice from other model configurations regardless of how closely they performed relative to the chosen model. We review the suitability of the ensemble modelling paradigm to more fully capture uncertainty in stock assessment model building and the provision of advice. We recommend further research to evaluate potential gains in modelling performance and advice from the use of ensemble modelling, while also suggesting revisions to the formal process for reviewing models and providing advice to management bodies.

Pathogenicity is unknown for the majority of human gene variants. For prioritization of sequenced somatic and germline mutation variants, in silico approaches can be utilized. In this study, 84 million non-synonymous Single Nucleotide Variants (SNVs) in the human coding genome were annotated using consensus Variant Effect Prediction (cVEP) method. An algorithm, implemented as a stacked ensemble of supervised learners, performed combination of the 39 functional, conservation mutation impact scores from dbNSFP4.0. Adding gene indispensability score, accounting for differences in the pathogenicities of the variants in the essential and the mutation-tolerant genes, improved the predictions. For each SNV the consensus combination gives either a continuous-value pathogenicity score, or a categorical score in five classes: pathogenic, likely pathogenic, uncertain significance, likely benign, benign. The provided class database is aimed for direct use in clinical practice. The trained prediction models were 5-fold cross-validated on the evidence-based categorical annotations from the ClinVar database. The rankings of the scores based on their ability to predict pathogenicity were obtained. A two-step strategy using the rankings, scores and class annotations is suggested for filtering and prioritization of the human exome mutations in clinical and biological applications of NGS technology.

Lower Back Pain (LBP) is a disease that needs immediate attention. Person with back pain shall go immediately to doctor for treatment. Injury, excessive works and some medical conditions are result of back pain. Back pain is common to any age of human for different reasons. Due to factors such as previous occupation and degenerative disk disease the chance of developing lower back pain increases for older people. It hampers the working condition of people common reason for seeking medical treatment. The result is absence from work and is unable to normal due to pain. It creates uncomfortable and debilitating situations. Hence, detecting this disease at an early stage will assist the medical field experts to suggest counter measures to the patients. Detection of lower back pain is implemented in this paper by applying ensemble machine learning technique. This paper proposes Stacking ensemble classifier as an automated tool that will predict lower back pain tendency of a patient. Experimental result implies that the proposed method reaches an accuracy of 76.34%, f1-score of 0.76 and MSE of 0.34.

Automated medical diagnosis is one of the important machine learning applications in the domain of healthcare. In this regard, most of the approaches primarily focus on optimizing the accuracy of classification models. In this research, we argue that unlike general-purpose classification problems, medical applications, such as chronic kidney disease (CKD) diagnosis, require special treatment. In the case of CKD, apart from model performance, other factors such as the cost of data acquisition may also be taken into account to enhance the applicability of the automated diagnosis system. In this research, we have proposed two techniques for cost-sensitive feature ranking. An ensemble of decision tree models is employed in both the techniques for computing the worth of a feature in the CKD dataset. An automatic threshold selection heuristic is also introduced which is based on the intersection of features’ worth and their accumulated cost. A set of experiments are conducted to evaluate the efficacy of the proposed techniques on both tree-based and non-tree based classification models. The proposed approaches are also evaluated against several comparative techniques. Furthermore, it is demonstrated that the proposed techniques select around 1/4^th of the original CKD features while reducing the cost by a factor of 7.42 of the original feature set. Based on the extensive experimentation it is concluded that the proposed techniques employing feature-cost interaction heuristic tend to select feature subsets that are both useful and cost-effective.

Brain Tumor is one of the severe diseases and occurrence of this disease threats human life. Detection of brain tumor in advance can secure patient’s life from unwanted loss. Well-timed and swift disease detection and treatment strategy can lead to improved quality of life in these patients. This paper attempts to use Machine Learning based ensemble approaches for recognising patients with brain tumor. Ensemble technique based AdaBoost classifier and 10-fold stratified cross-validation method are assembled in single platform is proposed in this paper for prediction of brain tumor. This prediction is compared against three baseline classifiers such as Gradient Boost, Random Forest and Extra Trees classifier. Experimental result implies the superiority of this model with an accuracy of 98.97%, f1-score of 0.99, kappa statistics score of 0.95 and MSE of 0.0103.

One of the most basic pieces of information gained from dynamic electromyography is accurately defining muscle action and phase timing within the gait cycle. The human gait relies on selective timing and the intensity of appropriate muscle activations for stability, loading, and progression over the supporting foot during stance, and further to advance the limb in the swing phase. A common clinical practice is utilizing a low-pass filter to denoise integrated electromyogram (EMG) signals and to determine onset and cessation events using a predefined threshold. However, the accuracy of the defining period of significant muscle activations via EMG varies with the temporal shift involved in filtering the signals; thus, the low-pass filtering method with a fixed order and cut-off frequency will introduce a time delay depending on the frequency of the signal. In order to precisely identify muscle activation and to determine the onset and cessation times of the muscles, we have explored here onset and cessation epochs with denoised EMG signals using different filter banks: the wavelet method, empirical mode decomposition (EMD) method, and ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD) method. In this study, gastrocnemius muscle onset and cessation were determined in sixteen participants within two different age groups and under two different walking conditions. Low-pass filtering of integrated EMG (iEMG) signals resulted in premature onset (28% stance duration) in younger and delayed onset (38% stance duration) in older participants, showing the time-delay problem involved in this filtering method. Comparatively, the wavelet denoising approach detected onset for normal walking events most precisely, whereas the EEMD method showed the smallest onset deviation. In addition, EEMD denoised signals could further detect pre-activation onsets during a fast walking condition. A comprehensive comparison is discussed on denoising EMG signals using EMD, EEMD, and wavelet denoising in order to accurately define an onset of muscle under different walking conditions.

Local binary pattern is one of the visual descriptors and can be used as a powerful feature extractor for texture classification. In this paper, a novel representation for face recognition is proposed, called it Bilateral Line Local Binary Patterns (BL-LBP). This scheme is an extension of Line Local Binary Patterns descriptors in the statistical learning subspace. The present bilateral descriptors are fused with an ensemble learning of calibrated SVM models. The performance of this scheme is evaluated using 5 standard face databases. It is found that it is robust against illumination variation, diverse facial expressions and head pose variations and its recognition accuracy reaches 98 percent, running on a mobile device with a processing speed of 63 ms per face. Results suggest that our proposed method can be very useful for the vision systems that have limited resources where the computational cost is critical.

In this paper, we introduce deboost, a Python library devoted to weighted distance ensembling of predictions for regression and classification tasks. Its backbone resides on the scikit-learn library for default models and data preprocessing functions. It offers flexible choices of models for the ensemble as long as they contain the predict method, like the models available from scikit-learn. deboost is released under the MIT open-source license and can be downloaded from the Python Package Index (PyPI) at https://pypi.org/project/deboost. The source scripts are also available on a GitHub repository at https://github.com/weihao94/DEBoost.

Users of meteorological forecasts are often faced with the question of whether to make a decision now based on the current forecast or whether to wait for the next and hopefully more accurate forecast before making the decision. One would imagine that the answer to this question should depend on the extent to which there is a benefit in making the decision now rather than later, combined with an understanding of how the skill of the forecast improves, and information about the possible size and nature of forecast changes. We extend the well-known cost-loss model for forecast-based decision making to capture an idealized version of this situation. We find that within this extended cost-loss model, the question of whether to decide now or wait depends on two specific aspects of the forecast, both of which involve probabilities of probabilities. For the special case of weather and climate forecasts in the form of normal distributions we derive a simulation algorithm, and equivalent analytical expressions, for calculating these two probabilities. We apply the algorithm to forecasts of temperature and find that the algorithm leads to better decisions relative to three simpler alternative decision-making schemes. Similar problems have been studied in many other fields, and we explore some of the connections.

The construction of different roads, such as freeways, highways, major roads or minor roads must be accompanied by constant monitoring and evaluation of service delivery. Pavements are generally assessed by engineers in terms of the smoothness, surface condition, structural condition and surface safety. Pavement assessment is often conducted using the qualitative indices such as international roughness index (IRI), pavement condition index (PCI), structural condition index (SCI) and skid resistance value (SRV), which are used for smoothness assessment, surface condition assessment, structural condition assessment, and surface safety assessment, respectively. In this paper, Tehran-Qom Freeway in Iran has been selected as the case study and its smoothness and pavement surface conditions are assessed. At 2-km intervals, a 100-meter sample unit is selected in the slow-speed lane (totally, 118 sample units). In these sample units, the PCI is calculated after a visual inspection of the pavement and the recording of distresses. Then, in each sample unit, the average IRI is computed. The purpose of this study is to provide a method for estimating PCI based on IRI. The proposed theory was developed by Random Forest (RF), and Random Forest optimized by Genetic Algorithm (RF-GA) methods and these methods were validated using correlation coefficient (CC), scattered index (SI), and Willmott’s index of agreement (WI) criteria. The proposed method reduces costs, saves time and eliminates the safety risks.

In recent years, the field of deep learning achieved considerable success in pattern recognition, image segmentation and may other classification fields. There are a lot of studies and practical applications of deep learning on images, video or text classification. In this study, we suggest a method for changing the architecture of the most performing CNN models with the aim of designing new models to be used as stand-alone networks or as a component of an ensemble. We propose to replace each activation layer of a CNN (usually a ReLu layer) by a different activation function stochastically drawn from a set of activation functions: in this way the resulting CNN has a different set of activation function layers.

This work addresses the role of charge regulation (CR) and the associated fluctuations in the conformational and mechanical properties of weak polyelectrolytes. Due to CR, changes in the pH-value modifies the average macromolecular charge and conformational equilibria. A second effect is that, for a given average charge per site, fluctuations can alter the intensity of the interactions by means of correlation between binding sites. We investigate both effects by means of Monte Carlo simulations at constant pH-value, so that the charge is a fluctuating quantity. Once the average charge per site is available, we turn off the fluctuations by assigning the same average charge to every site. A constant charge MC simulation is then performed. We make use of a model which accounts for the main fundamental aspects of a linear flexible polyelectrolyte i.e. proton binding, angle internal rotation, bond stretching and bending. Steric excluded volume and differentiated treatment for short-range and long-range interactions are also included in the model. It can be regarded as a kind of "minimal'' model in the sense that contains a minimum number of parameters but still preserving the atomistic detail. It is shown that, if fluctuations are activated, gauche state bond probabilities increase, and the persistence length decreases, so that the polymer becomes more folded. Macromolecular stretching is also analyzed in presence of CR (the charge depends on the applied force) and without CR (the charge is fixed to the value at zero force). The analysis of the low force scaling behavior concludes that Pincus exponent becomes pH-dependent. Both with and without CR, a transition from 1/2 at high pH-values (phantom chain) to 3/5 to low pH-values (Pincus regime), is observed. Finally, the intermediate force stretching regime is investigated. It is found that CR induces a moderate influence in the force-extension curves and persistence length (which in this force regime becomes force-dependent). It is thus concluded that the effect of CR on the stretching curves is mainly due to changes in the average charge at zero force. It is also found that, for the cases studied, the effect of steric excluded volume is almost irrelevant compared to electrostatic interactions.

The conventional machine learning (ML) algorithms are continuously advancing and evolving at a fast-paced by introducing the novel learning algorithms. ML models are continually improving using hybridization and ensemble techniques to empower computation, functionality, robustness, and accuracy aspects of modeling. Currently, numerous hybrid and ensemble ML models have been introduced. However, they have not been surveyed in a comprehensive manner. This paper presents the state of the art of novel ML models and their performance and application domains through a novel taxonomy.

The need to increase the energy efficiency of buildings as well as the use of local renewable heat sources has caused that heat meters are used not only to calculate the consumed energy but also for the active management of central heating systems. Increasing the reading frequency and the use of measurement data to control the heating system expands the requirements for the reliability of heat meters. The aim of the research is to analyse a large set of meters in the real network and predict their faults to avoid inaccurate readings, incorrect billing, heating system disruption and unnecessary maintenance. The reliability analysis of heat metres, based on historical data collected over several years, shows some regularities which cannot be easily described by physics-based models. The failure rate is almost constant and does depend on the past but is a non-linear combination of state variables. To predict meters' failures in the next settlement period, three independent machine learning models are implemented and compared with selected metrics because even the high performance of a single model (87\% True Positive for Neural Network) may be insufficient to make a maintenance decision. Additionally, performing hyperparameters optimisation boosts models' performance by a few percent. Finally, three improved models are used to build an ensemble classifier which outperforms the individual models. The proposed procedure ensures the high efficiency of fault detection (>95\%), while maintaining overfitting at the minimum level. The methodology is universal and can be utilised to study the reliability and predict faults of other types of meters and different objects with the constant failure rate.

Electricity demand prediction is vital for energy production management and proper exploitation of the present resources. Recently, several novel machine learning (ML) models have been employed for electricity demand prediction to estimate the future prospects of the energy requirements. The main objective of this study is to review the various ML models applied for electricity demand prediction. Through a novel search and taxonomy, the most relevant original research articles in the field are identified and further classified according to the ML modeling technique, perdition type, and the application area. A comprehensive review of the literature identifies the major ML models, their applications and a discussion on the evaluation of their performance. This paper further makes a discussion on the trend and the performance of the ML models. As the result, this research reports an outstanding rise in the accuracy, robustness, precision and the generalization ability of the prediction models using the hybrid and ensemble ML algorithms.

This paper briefly reviews the state of the art in artificial intelligence including inductive and deductive methods. Deep learning and ensemble machine learning lie in inductive methods while automated reasoning implemented in deductive computer languages (Prolog, Otter, and Z3) is based on deductive methods. In the inductive methods, intelligence is inferred by pseudorandom number for creating the sophisticated decision trees in Go (game), Shogi (game), and quiz bowl questions. This paper demonstrates how to wisely use the pseudorandom number for solving coin-weighing puzzles with the deductive method. Monte Carlo approach is a general purpose problem-solving method using random number. The proposed method using pseudorandom number lies in one of Monte Carlo methods. In the proposed method, pseudorandom number plays a key role in generating constrained solution candidates for coin-weighing puzzles. This may be the first attempt that every solution candidate is solely generated by pseudorandom number while deductive rules are used for verifying solution candidates. In this paper, the performance of the proposed method was measured by comparing with the existing open source codes by solving 12-coin and 24-coin puzzles respectively.

Molecular dynamics simulation is currently the theoretical technique eligible to simulate a wide range of systems from soft condensed matter to biological systems. However, of the excellent results that the technique has arrogated, this approach remains computationally expensive, but with the emergence of the new supercomputing technologies bases on graphics processing units graphical processing units-based systems GPUs, the perspective has changed. The GPUs allow performing large and complex simulations at a significantly reduced time. In this work, we present recent innovations in the acceleration of molecular dynamics in GPUs to simulate non-Hamiltonian systems. In particular, we show the performance of measure-preserving geometric integrator in the canonical ensemble, that is, at constant temperature. We provide a validation and performance evaluation of the code by calculating the thermodynamic properties of a Lennard-Jones fluid. Our results are in excellent agreement with reported data reported from literature, which were calculated with CPUs. The scope and limitations for performing simulations of high-throughput MD under rigorous statistical thermodynamics in the canonical ensemble are discussed and analyzed.

In this study an adjusting post-processing approach is implemented for improving intra-hourly forecasts of solar power and ramp events of PV solar power systems at different locations in the United States. This study also serves as an out-of-sample test to evaluate the performance of the adjusting approach with different locations and timescales. Thus, various individual intra-hourly forecasts of solar power are combined and adjusted by applying the adjusting approach. Both point and probabilistic forecasts of solar power are included. After that, solar power ramp event forecasting by the adjusting approach is carried out.

This study shows the application of self-organizing maps (SOMs) to probabilistic forecasts of wind power generation and ramps in Japan. SOMs are applied to atmospheric variables obtained from atmospheric reanalysis over the region, thus deriving classified weather patterns (WPs). Probabilistic relationships are established between the synoptic-scale atmospheric variables over East Japan and the generation of regionally integrated wind power in East Japan. Medium-range probabilistic wind power predictions are derived by SOM, as analog ensembles based on the WPs of the multi-center ensemble forecasts. As this analog approach handles stochastic uncertainties effectively, probabilistic wind power forecasts are rapidly generated from a very large number of forecast ensembles. The use of a multi-model ensemble provides better results than a one-forecast model. The hybrid ensemble forecasts further improve the probabilistic predictability skill of wind power generation, as compared with non-hybrid methods. It is expected that long-term wind forecasts will provide better guidance to transmission grid operators. The advantage of this method is that it can include an interpretative analysis of meteorological factors for variations in renewable energy.

To understand functions of biomolecules such as proteins, not only structures but their conformational change and kinetics are important to be characterized but its atomistic details are hard to obtain both experimentally and computationally. We review our recent computational studies using novel enhanced sampling techniques for conformational sampling of biomolecules and calculations of their kinetics. For efficiently characterizing the free energy landscape of a biomolecule, we introduce the multiscale enhanced sampling method, which uses a combined system of atomistic and coarse-grained models. Based on the idea of Hamiltonian replica exchange, we can recover the statistical properties of the atomistic model without any biases. We next introduce the string method as a path search method to calculate the minimum free energy pathways along a multidimensional curve in high dimensional space. Finally we introduce novel methods to calculate kinetics of biomolecules based on the ideas of path sampling: One is the Onsager-Machlup action method, and the other is the weighted ensemble method. Some applications of above methods to biomolecular systems are also discussed and illustrated.

The classical Rotational Isomeric State (RIS) model, originally proposed by Flory, has been used to rationalize a wide range of physicochemical properties of neutral polymers. However, many weak polyelectrolytes of interest are able to regulate their charge depending on the conformational state of the bonds. Recently, it has been shown that the RIS model can be coupled with the Site Binding (SB) model, for which the ionizable sites can adopt two states: protonated or deprotonated. The resulting combined scheme, the SBRIS model, allows to analyse ionization and conformational equilibria on the same foot. In the present work this approach is extended to include pH-dependent electrostatic Long Range (LR) interactions, ubiquitous in weak polyelectrolytes at moderate and low ionic strengths. With this aim the original LR interactions are taken into account by defining effective Short Range (SR) and pH-dependent parameters, such as effective microscopic protonation constants and rotational bond energies. The new parameters are systematically calculated using variational methods. The machinery of statistical mechanics for SR interactions, including the powerful and fast transfer matrix methods, can then be applied. The resulting technique, to which we will refer as Local Effective Interaction Parameters (LEIP) method, is illustrated with a minimal model of a flexible linear polyelectrolyte containing only one type of rotating bonds. LEIP reproduces very well the pH dependence of the degree of protonation and bond probabilities obtained by semi-grand canonical Monte Carlo simulations, where LR interactions are taken explicitly into account. The reduction in the computational time in several orders of magnitude suggests that the LEIP technique could be useful in a range of areas involving linear weak polyelectrolytes, allowing direct fitting of the relevant physical parameters to the experimental quantities.

Software fault prediction is the very consequent research topic for software quality assurance. Data driven approaches provide robust mechanisms to deal with software fault prediction. However, the prediction performance of the model highly depends on the quality of dataset. Many software datasets suffers from the problem of class imbalance. In this regard, under-sampling is a popular data pre-processing method in dealing with class imbalance problem, Easy Ensemble (EE) present a robust approach to achieve a high classification rate and address the biasness towards majority class samples. However, imbalance class is not the only issue that harms performance of classifiers. Some noisy examples and irrelevant features may additionally reduce the rate of predictive accuracy of the classifier. In this paper, we proposed two-stage data pre-processing which incorporates feature selection and a new Rough set Easy Ensemble scheme. In feature selection stage, we eliminate the irrelevant features by feature ranking algorithm. In the second stage of a new Rough set Easy Ensemble by incorporating Rough K nearest neighbor rule filter (RK) afore executing Easy Ensemble (EE), named RKEE for short. RK can remove noisy examples from both minority and majority class. Experimental evaluation on real-world software projects, such as NASA and Eclipse dataset, is performed in order to demonstrate the effectiveness of our proposed approach. Furthermore, this paper comprehensively investigates the influencing factor in our approach. Such as, the impact of Rough set theory on noise-filter, the relationship between model performance and imbalance ratio etc. comprehensive experiments indicate that the proposed approach shows outstanding performance with significance in terms of area-under-the-curve (AUC).

Nowadays, we live in a world in which people are facing with a lot of data that should be stored or displayed. One of the key methods to control and manage this data refers to grouping and classifying them in clusters. Today, clustering has a critical role in information retrieval methods for organizing large collections inside a few significant clusters. One of the main motivations for the use of clustering is to determine and reveal the hidden and inherent structure of a set of data. Ensemble clustering algorithms combine multiple clustering algorithms to finally reach an overall clustering system. Ensemble clustering methods by lack of information fusing utilize several primary partitions of data to find better ways. Since various clustering algorithms look at the different data points, they can produce various partitions from such data. It is possible to create a partition with high performance by combining the partitions obtained from different algorithms, even if the clusters to be very dense from each other. Most studies in this area have examined all the initial clusters. In this study, a new method is used in which the most sustainable clusters are utilized instead of all primary produced clusters. Consensus function based on co-association matrixes used to select more stable clusters. The most stable clusters selection method is done by cluster stability criterion based on F-measure. Optimization functions are used to optimize the obtained final clusters. The genetic algorithm is the optimizer used in this article to find the ultimate clusters participated in a consensus. Experimental results on several datasets show that the output of proposed method is various clusters with high stability.

Accurate and timely rainfall prediction enhances productivity and can aid proper planning in sectors such as agriculture, health, transport and water resources. This study is aimed at improving rainfall prediction using ensemble methods. It first assesses the performance of six convective schemes (Kain–Fritsch (KF); Betts–Miller–Janji´c (BMJ); Grell–Fretas (GF); Grell 3D ensemble (G3); New–Tiedke (NT) and Grell–Devenyi (GD)) using the root mean square error (RMSE) and mean error (ME) focusing on the March–May 2013 rainfall period over Uganda. 18 ensemble members are generated from the three best performing convective schemes (i.e. KF, GF & G3). The performance of three ensemble methods (i.e. ensemble mean (EM); ensemble mean analogue (EMA) and multi–member analogue ensemble (MAEM)) is also analyzed using the RMSE and ME. The EM presented a smaller RMSE compared to individual schemes (EM:10.02; KF:23.96; BMJ:26.04; GF:25.85; G3:24.07; NT:29.13 & GD:26.27) and a better bias (EM:-1.28; KF:-1.62; BMJ:-4.04; GF:-3.90; G3:-3.62; NT:-5.41 & GD:-4.07). The EMA and MAEM presented 13 out of 21 stations & 17 out of 21 stations respectively with smaller RMSE compared to EM thus demonstrating additional improvement in predictive performance. The MAEM is a new approach proposed and described in the study.

We investigate the stationary and dynamic properties of the celebrated Nosé-Hoover dynamics of many-body interacting Hamiltonian systems, with an emphasis on the effect of inter-particle interactions. To this end, we consider a model system with both short- and long-range interactions. The Nosé-Hoover dynamics aims to generate the canonical equilibrium distribution of a system at a desired temperature by employing a set of time-reversible, deterministic equations of motion. A signature of canonical equilibrium is a single-particle momentum distribution that is Gaussian. We find that the equilibrium properties of the system within the Nosé-Hoover dynamics coincides with that within the canonical ensemble. Moreover, starting from out-of-equilibrium initial conditions, the average kinetic energy of the system relaxes to its target value over a size-independent timescale. However, quite surprisingly, our results indicate that under the same conditions and with only long-range interactions present in the system, the momentum distribution relaxes to its Gaussian form in equilibrium over a scale that diverges with the system size. On adding short-range interactions, the relaxation is found to occur over a timescale that has a much weaker dependence on system size. This system-size dependence of the timescale vanishes when only short-range interactions are present in the system. An implication of such an ultra-slow relaxation when only long-range interactions are present in the system is that macroscopic observables other than the average kinetic energy when estimated in the Nosé-Hoover dynamics may take an unusually long time to relax to its canonical equilibrium value. Our work underlines the crucial role that interactions play in deciding the equivalence between Nosé-Hoover and canonical equilibrium.

This study proposes a novel hybrid machine learning approach for modeling of rainfall-induced shallow landslides. The proposed approach is a combination of an instance-based learning algorithm (k-NN) and Rotation Forest (RF), state of the art machine techniques that have seldom explored for landslide modeling. The Lang Son city area (Vietnam) is selected as a case study. For this purpose, a spatial database for the study area was constructed, and then, was used to build and evaluate the hybrid model. Performance of the model was assessed using Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC), area under the ROC curve (AUC), success rate and prediction rate, and several statistical evaluation metrics. The results showed that the model has high performance with both the training data (AUC = 0.948) and the validation data (AUC = 0.848). The results were compared with those obtained from soft computing techniques i.e. Random Forest, J48 Decision Trees, and Multilayer Perceptron Neural Networks. Overall, the performance of the proposed model is better than those obtained from the above methods. Therefore, the proposed model is a promising tool for landslide modeling. The research result can be highly useful for land use planning and management in landslide prone areas.

The radar sensor described realizes healthcare monitoring capable of detecting subject chest-wall movement caused by cardiopulmonary activities, and wirelessly estimating the respiration and heartbeat rates of the subject without attaching any devices to the body. Conventional single-tone Doppler radar can only capture Doppler signatures because of a lack of bandwidth information with noncontact sensors. In contrast, we take full advantage of impulse radio ultra-wideband (IR-UWB) radar to achieve low power consumption and convenient portability, with a flexible detection range and desirable accuracy. A noise reduction method based on improved ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD) and a vital sign separation method based on the continuous-wavelet transform (CWT) are proposed jointly to improve the signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) in order to acquire accurate respiration and heartbeat rates. Experimental results illustrate that respiration and heartbeat signals can be extracted accurately under different conditions. This noncontact healthcare sensor system proves the commercial feasibility and considerable accessibility of using compact IR-UWB radar for emerging biomedical applications.

Day-ahead forecasting of electricity prices is important in deregulated electricity markets for all the stakeholders: energy wholesalers, traders, retailers, and consumers. Electricity price forecasting is an inherently difficult problem due to its special characteristic of dynamicity and non-stationarity. In this paper, we present a robust price forecasting mechanism that shows resilience towards aggregate demand response effect and provides highly accurate forecasted electricity prices to the stakeholders in a dynamic environment. We employ an ensemble prediction model in which a group of different algorithms participate in predicting the price for each hour of a day. We propose two different strategies, namely, Fixed Weight Method (FWM) and Varying Weight Method (VWM), for selecting each hour's expert algorithm from the set of participating algorithms. In addition, we utilize a carefully engineered set of features selected from a pool of features derived from information such as past electricity price data, weather data, and calendar data. The proposed ensemble model offers better results than both the Pattern Sequence-based Forecasting (PSF) method and our own previous work using Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) alone do on the datasets for New York, Australian, and Spanish electricity markets.