ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201711.0191.v1
Subject: Social Sciences, Econometrics & Statistics Keywords: Pesticides, Vegetable, Nepal, Determinant, Multivariate Probit
Online: 29 November 2017 (13:27:57 CET)
Currently, the pesticides are the global core concern because it is a boon to farmers against increasing disease-pest and simultaneously, pesticide residue is the major anxiety regarding human health. For that reason, identification and determination of factors affecting the application of pesticides are essential. To identify and evaluate determinants of pesticides application in Nepal, a household survey of 300 households was carried-out and an empirical analysis was done using multivariate probit model. Moreover, powder and liquid forms of pesticides were considered for summer and winter season in vegetable farming, which was assigned as outcome variables. Likewise, socio-economic, demographic, farm-level and perception data were considered as explanatory variables. Use of chemical fertilizers, age and gender of head of household, household size and access to weather information were found the most influencing factors. Moreover, forms of pesticides and growing seasons were found complementary to each other. Therefore, devising the policy options accordingly should balance needs of farmers and health of consumers.
ARTICLE | doi:10.3390/sci1030057
Online: 20 September 2019 (00:00:00 CEST)
This study assessed farmers’ perception of climate change, estimated the determinants of, and evaluated the relationship among adaptation practices using the multivariate probit model. A survey in 300 agricultural households was carried out covering 10 sample districts considering five agro-ecological zones and a vulnerability index. Four adaptation choices (change in planting date, crop variety, crop type and investment in irrigation) were deemed as outcome variables and socioeconomic, demographic, institutional, farm-level and perceptions variables were deployed as explanatory variables. Their marginal effects were determined for three climatic variables—temperature, precipitation and drought. Age, gender and education of head of household, credit access, farm area, rain-fed farming and tenure, are found to be more influential compared to other factors. All four adaptation-options are found to be complimentary to each other. Importantly, the intensity of impact of dependent variables in different models, and for available adaptation-options, are found to be unequal. Therefore, policy options and support facilities should be devised according to climatic variables and adaptation options to achieve superior results.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202005.0326.v3
Subject: Social Sciences, Econometrics & Statistics Keywords: COVID-19; SARS-Cov-2; coronavirus; sample selection bias; bivariate probit; social distancing; public goods; macroeconomic
Online: 9 June 2020 (07:46:26 CEST)
This paper surveys estimates of the transmission features of the novel coronavirus, and then proposes a model to address sample-selection bias in estimated determinants of infection. Containment assumptions of the infection forecasting models depend on assumed effects of policies and self-regulating behavior. In the commons dilemma of the pandemic, the perceived ‘low risks’ of unregulated marginal choices do not reflect the full social cost, implying non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPI) to reduce mortality can enhance social welfare. As more economic activity renews with liftings of restrictive NPI (RNPI), a critical question concerns the ability of milder NPI (MNPI) and voluntary precautions to mitigate the risk of greater infections and deaths while also limiting the pandemic’s economic damage and its social costs. Ineffective NPI could lead to continued COVID-19 waves and new types of crises, worsened expectations and delayed economic recoveries. From the central range of surveyed estimates of transmission and alternative herd-immunity-threshold estimates, a ‘worst-case’ virus guidepost suggests eventual deaths of around 25 to 41 million worldwide and 1.1 to 1.7 million in the U.S. needed to reach herd immunity with no vaccine or treatment. The most optimistic study surveyed (theoretical model from a non-reviewed preprint study) combined with the low end of the range of the estimated mortality rate suggests 6 to 9 million deaths worldwide and 250 to 370 thousand in the U.S. to reach herd immunity. Successes in the mix of NPI, treatments, and vaccine can limit the eventual global death toll of the virus. Improved estimation models for forecasting and decision making may assist in better targeting the local timings and mix of NPI. Diagnostic tests for the virus have been largely limited to symptomatic cases, causing possible sample selection bias. A recursive bivariate probit model of infection and testing is proposed along with several possible applications from cross-section or panel-data estimation. Multiple potential explanatory variables, data sources, and estimation needs are specified and discussed.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202205.0240.v1
Subject: Social Sciences, Economics Keywords: Credit constraints; Export; SMEs; Instrumental variable; Probit regression; Vietnam
Online: 18 May 2022 (10:35:32 CEST)
Export participation and restricted access to external formal credit are two factors attracting meticulous attention from researchers and policymakers, especially in developing countries. Exploring the interactive relationship of these factors in both the static and dynamic models is the purpose of this study. The study uses data sets from small and medium-sized manufacturing enterprises (SMEs) in Vietnam for the period 2009 - 2015. The instrumental variable approach is implemented to deal with the endogenous variable problem in the model. The results show an effect of credit constraint on the firms’ exporting status, and continuous exports are likely to reduce the limit of credit constraint.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202103.0353.v1
Online: 12 March 2021 (20:27:55 CET)
This study aims to determine the impact of climate change on market garden production in the extreme south of Mali through the perception and adaptation of market gardeners to climatic phenomena. The study used two models, namely the probit selection and Heckman results models and multinomial logistic regression, based on data collected from producers. A total of 194 producers were surveyed. The results of Heckman's probit model indicate that experience in agriculture and the educational level of the producers are the two main determinants of producers' perception and simultaneous adaptation to climate change. Among these variables agricultural experience is both positively and negatively correlated with perception.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202112.0098.v1
Subject: Social Sciences, Microeconomics And Decision Sciences Keywords: Theory of planned behavior; Psychological factors; Sociodemographic factors; Behavior; Broker; Professional farmer; Cooperative farm; Probit model; Multinomial logit model; Marginal effect
Online: 7 December 2021 (11:12:22 CET)
The purposes of this study are based upon the theory of planned behavior (TPB) to examine the impact of past experiences of contract farming on selecting a specific type of contract farming in the future and then compare different psychological factors in the TPB for different potential contract farmer statuses. These statuses include homesteaders, farmers from cooperative farms, farmers from production and sales teams, professional farmers, and brokers. The impact of factors in the TPB for a particular contract type on potential contract farmers is further to compute. To this end, data are collected in three major sweet potato production areas in Taiwan. The results show that the farmers’ past contract farming experience does not influence the selection of the contract in the future. As for the selection of contract type, strengthening the perception and motivating the behavioral intention of contract farming for cooperative farms will increase the probability of selecting an unclassified sweet potato size contract. On the other hand, enhancing perceived behavioral control factors and behavioral intention factors for professional farmers and brokers is apt to have a relatively high probability of selecting those types involving the highest amount or the best price to obtain the best deal.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201904.0025.v1
Subject: Keywords: incentives measures; farmer’s perceptions; green manure; subsidy; rotation fallow; probit; China
Online: 2 April 2019 (05:44:55 CEST)
The influence of instrumental variables on farmers ‘perceptions using rotation fallow as sustainable agriculture practices had been the aim of our research. By using simultaneous equations models, this study tried to understand the relationship between green manure farmer’s perceptions on using rotation-fallow and planting green manure in Guangxi Province, south of China. The results showed that subsidizing green manure farmers based on standard subsidy by the unit of green manure sown area; the training on the green manure planting technology or the demonstration preaching; the green manure farmers preference for the kinds of subsidy (funds, seeds, and mechanical services) were the mostly great drivers of the program of restoring planting green manure in the study area. These incentives measures must be enhanced as priority to restore definitely green manure planting. However, the findings of the study showed that the total income of the 2017 year, the area of an agricultural field of household and the household members (16–65 years old), providing labor in the agricultural field, have some influences on planting green manure and on farmer’s perceptions on using rotation-fallow as sustainable agriculture practices. Brief, the unobserved factors which influenced the endogenous factors play an important role to enhance widely the impact of farmers’ perceptions on planting green manure.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202101.0049.v1
Subject: Social Sciences, Accounting Keywords: COVID-19 pandemic; ordered probit; micro-econometric analysis; marginal effects; lockdown measures
Online: 4 January 2021 (13:48:09 CET)
During March and April 2020, the European Union (EU) was the center of the COVID-19 pandemic. Many National Governments imposed severe lockdown policies to mitigate the health crisis. The European Parliament commissioned a survey to analyse the citizens’ attitudes over a number of issues related to the COVID-19 pandemic. 21804 European citizens in 21 EU countries responded the survey between 23 April and 1 May 2020. The paper analyses empirically the individual satisfaction that European citizens have experienced over the measures taken by the respective National Governments to control the COVID-19 pandemic. The analysis is based on a micro-econometric model (ordered probit) that explains the citizens’ satisfaction by a number of attitudes and sociodemographic factors. Our results reveal that Spaniards are the least satisfied citizens in comparison with Danes, Irelanders, Greeks and Croats who are the most satisfied nationals. The years of education and the social class also play a determinant role. We also find that the most important determinant is the political support to the Government, and that those who are more worried by the economy and the protection of individual rights are usually more critic with the measures than those who are more worried by the health consequences.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201804.0035.v2
Subject: Engineering, Civil Engineering Keywords: pedestrian safety; crash severity; crash factors; ordered probit model; random parameter model
Online: 27 April 2018 (08:10:22 CEST)
Background: According to the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, 116 pedestrians were killed in motor vehicle crashes in Ohio in 2015. However, no study to date has analyzed crashes in Ohio exploring the factors contributing to the pedestrian injury severity resulting from motor vehicle crashes. This study fills this gap by investigating the crashes involving pedestrians exclusively in Ohio. Materials and Methods: This study uses the crash data from the Highway Safety Information System, from 2009 to 2013. The explanatory factors include the pedestrian, driver, vehicle, crash, and roadway characteristics. Both fixed- and random-parameters ordered probit models of injury severity (where possible outcomes are major, minor, and possible/no injury) were estimated. Results: The model results indicate that being older pedestrian (65 and over), younger driver (less than 24), driving under influence (DUI), being struck by truck, dark-unlighted roadways, six-lane roadways, and speed limit of 40 mph and 50 mph were associated with more severe injuries to the pedestrians. Conversely, older driver (65 and over), passenger car, crash occurring in urban locations, daytime traffic off-peak (10 AM to 3:59 PM), weekdays, and daylight condition were associated with less severe injuries. Conclusion: This study provides specific safety recommendations so that effective countermeasures could be developed and implemented by the policy makers, which in turn will improve overall highway safety.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201802.0147.v1
Subject: Social Sciences, Economics Keywords: access to care; Burkina Faso; generic essential drugs; nursing staff; Trivariate Probit
Online: 23 February 2018 (05:26:19 CET)
This study uses data from the pilot project "Community Monitoring for Better Health and Education Services Delivery Project'' in Burkina Faso, to model the joint impact of generic essential drugs and nursing staff supplies constraints on access to primary health care in the country. The results show that statistical endogeneity of supply side constraints are present in the standard univariate probit specification of access to care. However, when accounted for, the resulting Trivariate Probit model shows that although shortages of generic essential drugs supply do not seem to constitute a significant barrier to access in Burkina Faso, shortages in nursing staff supply do. In fact, the likelihood of primary care access is reduced by 85.5% among those that reported having experienced a shortage in nursing staff, while paradoxically increasing by 60.3% among those that reported having experienced a shortage in generic essential drugs. A potential explanation for these findings is that overall the health care needs in the three surveyed regions in the country were more linked to primary health care services consumption from nurses, although further research would be important to clearly elucidate the position of health goods such as generic essential drugs.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201802.0121.v1
Subject: Social Sciences, Econometrics & Statistics Keywords: Formal Education, Labor Market Participation, Literacy, Poverty, Sustainable Development, Semipametric Trivariate Probit
Online: 19 February 2018 (16:00:35 CET)
This research contributes to the overall debate on education for sustainable development (ESD) by shed- ding lights on the contributing role of formal education to the contemporaneous dynamics of literacy, labor market participation and poverty reduction in Africa, with a focus on Burkina Faso. The study uses a semi-parametric recursive trivariate probit modeling approach, and data from the 2014 National Survey on Household Living Conditions in Burkina Faso. The results show that the embraced systemic approach in this analysis is statistically signicant as shown by the 95% condence intervals on the three correlation coeffcients in the model. Furthermore, education does improve literacy skills, however improved literacy skills in itself does not guaranty active labor market participation in Burkina Faso. Active labor market participation seem to be affected by labor market rates of return, and individual reservation wage (or income). When labor market rate of return is short of high literacy skilled individuals' reservation wage, then the natural response is a choice of inactivity in the labor market, by the later group. Simultaneously however, it is found that active labor market participation leads to poverty reduction; therefore, in addition to new industrial policies for structural transformation of the economy, policy makers in Burkina Faso should consider education and minimum wage reforms to give highly literate household members the incentive to be active in the labor market.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202203.0067.v2
Subject: Social Sciences, Sociology Keywords: Intermarriage; migration; local markets; Poisson model; Probit model; spatial autocorrelation; spatial heterogeneity; Spain
Online: 4 March 2022 (08:43:08 CET)
We utilized all Spanish marriage records available at the municipality level from 2005-2007 to model spatial variations in intermarriage. We constructed a spatial regime zero inflated Poisson model and grouped-data probit model, with spatially lagged regressors, to predict the absolute and relative presence of intermarriage between Spaniards and migrants based on structural characteristics of the local marriage markets and their neighboring areas (i.e., relative group size, homogeneity of national origins, and sex ratio indicators). Our models do not assume collapsibility of the marriage market. Instead, they incorporate the local dimension of the marriage market and examine the association between intermarriage and structural variables at the spatial local level. The model also investigates intermarriage variation by size of place. The local characteristics of the marriage markets are robust indicators of both the absolute and relative importance of intermarriage, but their impact varies by size of municipality. The relative size of the migrant community positively impacts intermarriage. The homogeneity of the origins of migrants is negatively related to it. The impact of sex ratios in the migrant and native communities on intermarriage is not uniform across all municipalities and is not always related to more intermarriage.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201912.0225.v1
Subject: Social Sciences, Other Keywords: double hurdle; ICTs; market participation; information source; probit; regression model; smallholder farmer; livestock
Online: 17 December 2019 (09:59:33 CET)
The study explored the contribution of ICT-based information sources to market participation among smallholder livestock farmers. Use of ICTs is considered paramount for providing smallholder farmers with required market information, in order to reduce market asymmetries. A Double Hurdle regression was utilized to analyze data collected from 150 smallholder livestock farmers in the study area. The results show that while use of ICT-based market information sources significantly influenced market participation, the effect of using ICT-based information sources on intensity of market participation was not significant. Other variables shown to influence both market participation and the intensity of market participation were age, additional income and membership of farmer cooperatives. This suggests the need to also consider other associated factors in the application of interventions which utilize ICT-based information sources in achieving planned market interventions.
Subject: Social Sciences, Economics Keywords: Sustainable Development Goals; Human Capital; youth unemployment; Probit model; multinomial logit model; cohort study
Online: 2 December 2019 (04:42:18 CET)
The Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) raise quality employability, gender equity in access to employment and increase coverage in education, however, in Colombia, high unemployment rates and informality of young people are risks of fulfilling these objectives. This is verified by a study with cohorts on access to employment, labor mobility and entry to quality occupations, through the use of probabilistic models. This study found that young people are less likely to be employed than adults, education has increased in the new generations and allowing them to enter a higher quality occupation, job segmentation and lack of experience of young people are the main cause of unemployment and Women are less likely to be employed than men and to do so in quality jobs. To comply with the SDGs, you must increase coverage in education, make a differential gender policy and expand programs as learners and insert dual education.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201903.0143.v1
Subject: Social Sciences, Other Keywords: perceived-impact of climate change; climate change adaptation; ordered probit regression; determinants of climate change impact
Online: 13 March 2019 (09:31:37 CET)
This paper identifies the characteristics of the farmer that affect the degree of farmer’s perceived-impact of climate change (CC). We use data from the Indonesian Rice Farm Household survey consisting of 87,330 farmers. An ordered probit regression model was used to estimate the effect of each variable on the degree of perceived-impact of CC. The results of this study confirm the previous empirical studies. Several variables that have been identified as having a positive effect on farmer adaptation practices such as farmer education, land tenure, irrigation infrastructure, cropping system, chemical fertilizer application, access to extension services and participation in farmer group affect the degree of CC perceived-impact negatively. However, a different result was found in the estimation of the gender variable. We found that female farmer has a higher resilience toward CC than the male farmer does. Furthermore, the female farmer has a more positive perception about future farming conditions than the male does. Finally, we suggest that the implementation of national adaptation policy should prioritize more to the farmer with insecure land tenure and utilize and expand the channel of agricultural extension services to deliver the planned adaptation policy.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201807.0147.v1
Subject: Social Sciences, Economics Keywords: economic development; convergence club identification; log t convergence; dynamic spatial ordered Probit model (DSOP); influencing factors
Online: 9 July 2018 (13:51:13 CEST)
Balanced and coordinated economic development across regions is a critical goal of regional economic development and new-type urbanization in China. However, few studies have examined economic growth convergence clubs at the county level. To extend the research on convergence clubs, this research applies a log t convergence test and a dynamic spatial ordered Probit model (DSOP) to endogenously identify economic growth convergence clubs in counties and to examine the influence of initial states and structures on club convergence probability. The study sample covers 2286 counties of China from 1992 to 2010. The results show significant convergence club patterns at the county levels, resulting in the gradual formation of six convergence clubs. The DSOP estimation results show that per capita fixed assets, population density and industrialization have promoted convergence club formation to varying degrees.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201802.0093.v1
Subject: Social Sciences, Econometrics & Statistics Keywords: consumer behavior; cooking fuel; environmental consciousness; health consciousness; semi-parametric estimation; trivariate probit; water and sanitation; wealth
Online: 13 February 2018 (08:53:03 CET)
Relying on Random Utility Theory (RUT) as the guiding mechanism for the Data Generating Process (DGP), this paper uses households consumption choices on cooking fuel, drinking water, and sanitation from the 2014 United States Agency for International Development's (USAID) Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) data on Burkina Faso, to characterize and investigate the inter-linkages between health consciousness and environmental consciousness, and their relationship with wealth in a low income country context. We achieve this by specifying sequentially three econometric modeling frameworks: the first one being independent binary probit (IBP) models to describe each choice process, followed by a fully parametric trivariate probit (FPTP) model to account for choice dependency, and finally by a semi-parametric trivariate probit (SPTP) model to further relax the linearity assumption. Based on the Akaike Information criteria (AIC) and the estimated Trivariate model correlation coefficients, the SPTP framework is found to be the best specification for describing the observed consumption behaviors. The results show that increased wealth level raises households health and environmental consciousness, while leaving the relative preference ordering over the elements in the household consumption basket unchanged.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201904.0218.v1
Subject: Social Sciences, Business And Administrative Sciences Keywords: eco-innovation; anticipated regulation; self-regulation; industry-specific characteristics; information sourcing openness; multivariate probit model; zero inflated negative binomial model
Online: 19 April 2019 (11:25:06 CEST)
The move to a low carbon economy is very important for enhancing international competitiveness. The eco-innovation is the critical factor of the green paradigm. This study is designed to investigate deeply the determinants of eco-innovation of manufacturing firms in Korea by suggesting anticipated regulations, self-regulations, and industry-specific characteristics as external factors and open information sources as internal factors. The data used in the analysis is 1946 sample firms from Korean Innovation Survey 2010 based on the Oslo Manual. Using the multi-variate probit analysis and the zero-inflated negative binomial (ZINB) regression analysis, we have found out that the anticipated regulations and self-regulations have significant influences both on eco-process innovation and eco-product innovation, while industrial characteristics have no effects. The empirical results also show that the breadth of information sources has a positive effect on businesses in implementing eco-innovations. Our findings show that the Korean government should provide a good platform where firms can better understand the future trends of environmental policies, particularly policies on anticipated and self-regulations. At the same time, Korean firms should establish a voluntary system to control environmental activities so that they can improve eco-innovations through integrating external information.