Preprint Article Version 2 Preserved in Portico This version is not peer-reviewed

Modeling Spatial Local Variations in Intermarriage

Version 1 : Received: 3 March 2022 / Approved: 3 March 2022 / Online: 3 March 2022 (14:45:41 CET)
Version 2 : Received: 3 March 2022 / Approved: 4 March 2022 / Online: 4 March 2022 (08:43:08 CET)

A peer-reviewed article of this Preprint also exists.

Esteve, A.; Chasco, C.; López-Gay, A. Modeling Local Variations in Intermarriage. Mathematics 2022, 10, 1106. Esteve, A.; Chasco, C.; López-Gay, A. Modeling Local Variations in Intermarriage. Mathematics 2022, 10, 1106.


We utilized all Spanish marriage records available at the municipality level from 2005-2007 to model spatial variations in intermarriage. We constructed a spatial regime zero inflated Poisson model and grouped-data probit model, with spatially lagged regressors, to predict the absolute and relative presence of intermarriage between Spaniards and migrants based on structural characteristics of the local marriage markets and their neighboring areas (i.e., relative group size, homogeneity of national origins, and sex ratio indicators). Our models do not assume collapsibility of the marriage market. Instead, they incorporate the local dimension of the marriage market and examine the association between intermarriage and structural variables at the spatial local level. The model also investigates intermarriage variation by size of place. The local characteristics of the marriage markets are robust indicators of both the absolute and relative importance of intermarriage, but their impact varies by size of municipality. The relative size of the migrant community positively impacts intermarriage. The homogeneity of the origins of migrants is negatively related to it. The impact of sex ratios in the migrant and native communities on intermarriage is not uniform across all municipalities and is not always related to more intermarriage.

Supplementary and Associated Material


Intermarriage; migration; local markets; Poisson model; Probit model; spatial autocorrelation; spatial heterogeneity; Spain


Social Sciences, Sociology

Comments (1)

Comment 1
Received: 4 March 2022
Commenter: Coro Chasco
Commenter's Conflict of Interests: Author
Comment: Change -in the PDF file- the webpage address of the Opendata project, where the repository of data and code can be found. The correct address is:
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