Social Sciences

Abstract: Hybrid warfare has become a defining feature of twenty-first-century conflict, yet scholarly and policy analysis remains disproportionately anchored in state-centric models. This qualitative study addresses that gap by investigating the role of non-state actors as both perpetrators and instruments of hybrid warfare. Employing a multi-case qualitative design grounded in thematic analysis, the paper examines three principal dimensions of non-state participation: private military companies as extensions of state power, cyber mercenaries and the construction of plausible deniability, and influence operations conducted through non-state media networks. Drawing on documentary analysis, policy documents, open-source intelligence reporting, and peer-reviewed scholarship published through 2024, the study develops an original typology of state–non-state hybrid warfare relationships spanning five modalities: direct proxy, contractual delegation, ideological franchise, tacit enablement, and autonomous convergence. The findings indicate that the deliberate blurring of state and non-state boundaries functions as a strategic asset rather than an analytical inconvenience, enabling actors to circumvent international legal frameworks, evade attribution, and operate below the threshold of conventional armed conflict. Recent evidence further suggests that the deniability dividend is conditional and diminishing, as improvements in public attribution and forensic capability erode the space between political knowledge and legal proof. The paper concludes with policy-relevant recommendations for counter-hybrid strategy, the regulation of private military and commercial cyber capabilities, and the development of international norms adequate to the evolving architecture of contemporary conflict.

Abstract: The intersection of climate change and international security has emerged as one of the most consequential analytical frontiers in twenty-first-century international relations. This paper develops a multidimensional framework for analyzing how environmental stress shapes interstate conflict and cooperation, advancing beyond existing scholarship that treats climate as a background variable. Drawing on securitization theory, environmental peacebuilding literature, and the most recent empirical syntheses of climate–conflict linkages, the paper articulates seven interconnected dimensions of climate security—resource competition, migration pressures, territorial change, food security, cooperation opportunities, securitization dynamics, and infrastructure vulnerability—situated within a multilevel structure spanning local, national, regional, and global scales. Through comparative analysis of transboundary water governance, climate-induced migration, Arctic geopolitics, food-system disruption, and environmental peacemaking initiatives, the paper identifies both pathways to conflict and opportunities for cooperation. The findings indicate that climate security outcomes are contingent rather than deterministic, mediated by political institutions, economic conditions, and social structures; that institutional density determines how much climate stress a domain can absorb; and that conflictual and cooperative trajectories frequently co-occur within the same regions and dyads. The paper contributes to international relations theory by bridging materialist and constructivist perspectives on climate security, offering policy-relevant insights for diplomatic practice, international law, and multilateral governance. It concludes by identifying priority areas for future research, including the climatization of security institutions, the legal implications of disappearing states, the security externalities of mitigation policy, and the potential for climate cooperation to serve as a confidence-building measure in contested geopolitical environments.

Abstract: International seminars and conferences have moved from the periphery of diplomatic life to its centre, becoming instruments through which states project soft power in an era of geostrategic transformation. Drawing on a qualitative, multi-method analysis of major international forums held between 2020 and 2024, this study examines how nations strategically leverage convening platforms to shape global narratives, cultivate alliances, and advance national interests beyond the reach of traditional hard-power instruments. Using case-study, comparative, and thematic analysis grounded in Nye’s soft-power theory and complex-interdependence and constructivist perspectives, the research identifies a qualitative shift in conference function. Contemporary forums operate as hybrid diplomatic–commercial platforms that integrate agenda-setting, convening power, thought leadership, and strategic signalling. The findings show that established powers use conferences to reinforce institutional leadership and norm-setting, whereas emerging powers tie convening strategies directly to economic integration, investment attraction, and national transformation agendas. Technological innovation—particularly the post-pandemic turn to hybrid formats—has both democratised participation and produced new digital hierarchies. The study concludes that the capacity to convene, moderate, and shape international discourse now constitutes a strategically consequential form of power, and it offers a weighted framework for assessing conference effectiveness as a soft-power instrument.

Abstract: Despite significant advances in the measurement of state fragility, existing assessment frameworks remain primarily descriptive, identifying symptoms of institutional weakness without adequately explaining the systemic interactions that generate national vulnerability. Dominant approaches, including the Fragile States Index and state capacity measures, typically aggregate indicators of political instability, economic decline, insecurity, and governance deficits but provide limited guidance for diagnosing the underlying mechanisms that inhibit national adaptation and regeneration. This article introduces the Nationesis Diagnostic Matrix (NDM), a complexity-based diagnostic framework grounded in the theory of Nationesis. Rather than measuring fragility as a static condition, the NDM conceptualizes fragility as an emergent property of interacting failures across institutional, cognitive, social, ecological, economic, technological, and symbolic systems. The paper develops the theoretical foundations of the matrix, proposes its multidimensional architecture, explains its diagnostic methodology, and illustrates how it can support adaptive governance, institutional reform, and strategic policy design. The NDM complements the Nationesis Index by shifting analytical attention from measuring regenerative capacity to identifying the systemic constraints that prevent political communities from achieving long-term transformation.

Abstract: Contemporary approaches to comparative national assessment have produced a wide range of indicators measuring governance quality, human development, institutional effectiveness, innovation performance, and state fragility. Although these frameworks have significantly advanced comparative political analysis, they remain primarily oriented toward assessing current conditions, institutional outputs, or accumulated capacities. They provide limited insight into a fundamental question facing political communities in an era of systemic disruption: why do some nations successfully renew themselves while others remain trapped in cycles of decline, fragility, and institutional stagnation?This article introduces the Nationesis Index (NI), a novel composite framework designed to conceptualize and measure national regenerative capacity. Building on complexity theory, adaptive governance, institutional evolution, resilience studies, and theories of collective intelligence, Nationesis conceptualizes nations as complex adaptive political systems capable of learning, reorganizing, innovating, and transforming under conditions of uncertainty. The article develops the theoretical foundations of national regeneration and proposes eight interconnected dimensions of the Nationesis Index: institutional regeneration, cognitive capacity, innovation capacity, social cohesion, adaptive governance, ecological resilience, economic transformation, and symbolic legitimacy.Methodologically, the article presents a framework for index construction based on indicator selection, normalization procedures, multidimensional weighting, composite aggregation, sensitivity analysis, and expert-based validation. A preliminary illustrative application demonstrates the potential of the NI for comparative political analysis while acknowledging the need for further empirical testing. Unlike conventional indices that primarily evaluate how well nations perform at a given moment, the Nationesis Index addresses a different analytical challenge: how capable nations are of regenerating themselves through learning, adaptation, and systemic transformation.By introducing national regeneration as a distinct analytical construct, this article contributes to debates on political development, state capacity, resilience, and adaptive governance. It proposes a new research agenda for understanding nations not only as institutional arrangements but as evolving living systems.

Abstract: This article examines whether Turkey’s defense-industrial transformation constitutes an observable precursor to formal disengagement from NATO’s integrated military command — a process the authors term denatofication. The study addresses a gap in the strategic autonomy literature, which describes Turkey’s hedging behavior without specifying the institutional mechanism by which its structural contradiction (simultaneous NATO membership and Shanghai Cooperation Organisation aspirant status) could be resolved. Using comparative historical case study design, the article analyzes two historical precedents (France 1966–2009; Greece 1974–1980) and applies a three-dimensional sovereignty framework (infrastructural, institutional, narrative) to Turkey’s defense-industrial record from 2000 to 2026. The principal finding is that material denatofication — defense localization exceeding 80%, the sovereign Steel Dome air-defense network, the KAAN fifth-generation fighter, the Anadolu drone-carrier, and autonomous mobilization legislation — precedes and enables institutional denatofication. The Incirlik Paradox (U.S. B61 warheads; GE engines for KAAN) identifies the two residual dependencies that define the unfinished frontier of Turkish strategic autonomy. The NATO Ankara Summit (July 2026) provided real-time confirmation of both the paradox and Turkey’s structural ambivalence. Policy implications bear on NATO cohesion, SCO expansion, and Greater Eurasia architecture.

Abstract: Susceptibility to misinformation threatens democratic processes, yet the differential predictive role of authoritarianism subdimensions remains understudied. This study integrates data from two independent Romanian samples collected during the 2024–2025 electoral cycle (N = 597), examining how aggression, conventionalism/traditionalism, and submission/conservatism predict two distinct outcomes: accuracy in identifying false news (Study 1, N = 427, RWA-15) and belief in conspiracy statements drawn from the annulled Romanian presidential election (Study 2, N = 170, VSA-6). Hierarchical regressions revealed a striking dissociation: authoritarian submission was the dominant predictor of fake news detection deficits (β = −0.41, p < .001), while traditionalism was the dominant predictor of conspiracy belief (β = +0.39, p < .001). Aggression failed to predict either outcome after controls. Fisher's z tests confirmed systematic cross-study differences (both p < .001), consistent with distinct cognitive and ideological routes to misinformation susceptibility. Person-centered analyses replicated the variable-centered findings. Cross-instrumental convergence was partial: the traditionalism/conventionalism equivalence replicated consistently, while submission/conservatism showed less stability. These findings suggest that prebunking interventions should be tailored to authoritarian profiles: cognitively oriented training for submission-dominant individuals, and value-based argumentation for traditionalism-dominant ones.

Abstract: International Political Economy (IPE) confronts a moment of genuine intellectual reckoning. The theoretical frameworks that defined discipline during the three decades following the Cold War—anchored in liberal assumptions concerning convergence, institutionalized cooperation, and the pacifying logic of economic interdependence, are increasingly strained by a world they were not constructed to explain. The 2020s have delivered a compounding cluster of structural disruptions: systemic rivalry between liberal and non-liberal states, the distributional politics of the green energy transition, the deliberate weaponization of economic interdependence, the emergence of an intangible platform economy that defies established regulatory categories, and the deepening entanglement of geopolitics with international finance. Against this backdrop, this paper identifies and analyzes five foundational research gaps that collectively define the frontier of contemporary IPE scholarship: (a) the retreat of liberal ontology and the ascendance of non-liberal economic orders; (b) the material politics of climate change and the green transition; (c) the return of interstate war and the re-militarization of economics; (d) the analytical challenge of digital sovereignty and the intangible economy; and (e) the imperative to re-center politics in the study of global finance. Drawing on a systematic synthetic literature review and comparative conceptual analysis of scholarship published between 1970 and 2026, the paper integrates twenty-three analytical tables and two original figures as structured devices for mapping conceptual terrain. The paper argues that none of these gaps can be addressed through incremental refinement of existing frameworks; each requires a more fundamental rethinking of the ontological and epistemological commitments that have shaped IPE over five decades. Addressing them demands genuine methodological pluralism—the productive integration of quantitative, formal, qualitative, and historical approaches. The crisis of relevance confronting IPE is real, yet it is simultaneously an opportunity to construct a discipline more intellectually honest and analytically adequate to the world it seeks to explain.

Abstract: This working paper offers a compact academic statement of the CIRIT conceptual framework — a pentagonal geometry of five civilisational poles of Greater Eurasia (China, India, Russia, Iran, Türkiye) organising the outer contour of the Eurasian architecture, with five Central Asian states (Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan) constituting the inner core. The paper justifies the abbreviation through a dual etymology (the Turkic equestrian game cirit, inscribed by UNESCO in 2017, and the Sanskrit kirīṭa, meaning "crown"), establishes the structural properties of the proposed geometry (a complete nuclear-threshold contour, strategic ambivalence, an operational C5 × CIRIT core), and positions the concept against existing Eurasian frameworks (SCO, EAEU, OTS, BRICS). The paper develops the framework through five analytical dimensions: definitional and etymological grounding; structural properties of the geometry; comparative positioning against extant formats; historical and civilisational underpinnings of each pole; and implications for Central Asian agency. This preprint registers conceptual priority on the terminology and geometry for subsequent extended publication.

Abstract: This paper introduces the analytical formula "Russian Bayonet, Chinese Yuan" — a conceptual construct describing the stable functional asymmetry between Russia and China in Central Asia over the period 1992–2022. By functional asymmetry the paper means a historically consolidated, structurally reproduced, but never treaty-codified division of dominant roles: Russia as the primary provider of security guarantees and political stability; China as the dominant source of infrastructural financing and economic expansion through the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). The paper acknowledges that this asymmetry was not absolute: China gradually increased its security presence while Russian economic influence through migration channels remained substantial. The paper is conceptual in character; its aim is to introduce the formula into academic circulation, propose operationalizable proxy indicators for subsequent empirical verification, and map the stress-testing logic using counterfactual cases. The theoretical basis is the author's concept of Infrastructure Projection of Geopolitics (IPG; Rakhimov, 2026). The paper argues that the structural fracture of 2022 initiated a process of reconfiguration of this arrangement — without instantly destroying it.

Abstract: East Asia has been one of the most volatile parts of international politics for decades, with the Taiwan Question being at the center of the geopolitical interactions among great and middle powers within the region. 2016 witnessed a new transfer of power between the two major political parties on Taiwan, from Kuomintang, a pro-status quo party to Democratic Progress Party, a pro-independence party. This new partisan political situation on the island produces worries about the uncertainty of geopolitical development and security situation in East Asia. The fact that America plays an important role in the cross-Strait relations makes policymakers and scholars very much concerned with the development of Sino-US security relationship and the overall trend of East Asian geopolitical evolution. Structural analyses offered by scholars like John Mearsheimer maintain that Washington will eventually forsake Taiwan when the cost to protect the island is too high. However, after exploring how strategic culture shapes and influences American decisions of using military force to achieve its political objectives in important geopolitical issues like Taiwan, this essay argues that American strategic culture will not allow forsaking Taiwan to happen, because the Taiwan question can be a significant strategic card for Washington to serve both purposes of protecting democratic values and holding China at bay. In order to avoid a regional security nightmare in East Asia, maintaining the status quo still remains the most rational and optimal choice for Beijing, Taipei, and Washington, though Tsai and Trump tend to challenge the fact.

Abstract: Food insecurity and undernourishment remain persistent challenges in developing countries, particularly under conditions of economic volatility, income inequality, food price instability, and increasing pressure on food systems. This study examines the macroeconomic and structural determinants of undernourishment in developing countries within the broader framework of sustainable food systems. The analysis focuses on GDP per capita, agricultural value added, and inflation, while urbanization and trade openness are included as control variables. An unbalanced panel dataset covering 72 developing countries over the period 2010–2023 is employed. Fixed effects and random effects panel models are estimated to assess the robustness of the empirical relationships. The Hausman test does not reject the random effects specification, suggesting that the random effects estimator is statistically acceptable. Nevertheless, fixed effects results are also reported to account for unobserved country- and time-specific heterogeneity. The empirical findings show that GDP per capita has a negative and statistically significant effect on undernourishment across both model specifications, indicating that higher income levels are associated with improved food access and better nutritional outcomes. Inflation has a positive and statistically significant effect, suggesting that rising prices may weaken household purchasing power and increase undernourishment. Agricultural value added is positive but statistically insignificant, implying that agricultural expansion alone may not be sufficient to reduce undernourishment unless supported by improvements in productivity, distribution, food access, and institutional efficiency. Urbanization and trade openness generally show negative associations with undernourishment, although their statistical significance varies across model specifications. From a sustainability perspective, reducing undernourishment requires more than aggregate income growth or agricultural expansion. Policies should strengthen resilient food systems, improve agricultural productivity, enhance social protection mechanisms, stabilize food prices, and ensure equitable access to affordable and nutritious food. This study contributes to the literature by providing recent panel-based evidence on the joint role of income, agricultural structure, inflation, urbanization, and trade openness in explaining undernourishment, and by offering policy-relevant insights for designing sustainable and inclusive food systems in developing countries.

Abstract: Public pensions and benefits are a cornerstone for safeguarding citizens’ standard of living. This study focuses on the determinants of old-age pensions as well as disability pensions and benefits. The data is provided by the Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe (SHARE), and covers people aged 50 to 89 years old for the period 2015 to 2022 in 12 European countries. The relationship between the determinants and old-age as well as disability pensions is estimated using Multi-effects and Random-Effects Tobit estimators with a minimum of 106,240 observations of minimum 47,832 respondents. The results indicate that both old-age and disability pensions appear to be limited complementary across countries. Old-age pensions are lower at lower self-reported health levels, while disability pensions and benefits appear to be higher. Moreover, the public payment schemes appear to account for the remaining available income of the beneficiary, implying that a given fairness is incorporated in the payment policies. Remarkably, both payments reveal the presence of a pension gender gap, potentially arising from a preceding wage gap. Overall, the study illustrates on a high level the fair allocation of available means to old-age as well as disability pensions across a substantial part of Europe.

Abstract: This article explores Eco-Civic Communities (ECCs) as a potential framework for integrating ecological governance with democratic participation across multiple scales of political organization. Drawing on scholarship in ecological democracy, deliberative governance, polycentric institutional theory, civic ecology, and multilevel governance, the article examines how localized participatory structures may contribute to broader systems of ecological coordination amid growing planetary interdependence. The study develops a conceptual and analytical model of ECCs as territorially grounded, participatory, ecologically oriented, and institutionally integrated governance formations. It further proposes an analytical framework for evaluating ECCs based on criteria such as democratic depth, ecological effectiveness, inclusiveness, accountability, institutional feasibility, scalability, and resilience. Through comparative analysis, the article situates ECCs alongside existing governance initiatives, including ecovillages, Transition Towns, participatory budgeting, eco-districts, and community-based sustainability projects. The paper also examines possible pathways for institutional integration within multilevel governance systems while acknowledging important risks, constraints, and implementation challenges. Rather than presenting ECCs as definitive solutions, the article argues that they may provide a useful framework for investigating how ecological transformation and democratic renewal can become more systematically interconnected.

Abstract: The field of international relations confronts significant research gaps as established theoretical frameworks struggle to address the multidimensional challenges of the twenty-first century. This study presents a comprehensive qualitative analysis of four priority research domains requiring urgent scholarly attention: artificial intelligence (AI) governance and global power dynamics, climate security and interstate conflict, digital sovereignty in the Global South, and non-state actors in hybrid warfare. Employing systematic literature review and thematic analysis grounded in interpretivist epistemology and critical realist ontology, this research identifies critical theoretical and empirical deficiencies in existing scholarship while proposing integrated frameworks for addressing them. Findings reveal that traditional international relations theories—including realism (Waltz, 1979/2010; Mearsheimer, 2001), liberalism (Keohane, 1984; Ikenberry, 2011), and constructivism (Wendt, 1999; Finnemore & Sikkink, 1998)—require substantial adaptation to address challenges posed by technological transformation, environmental change, and evolving security paradigms. The analysis identifies significant cross-domain interconnections: AI governance intersects with hybrid warfare through autonomous weapons systems and cyber operations, while climate security connects with digital sovereignty through environmental data governance. The paper concludes with evidence-based recommendations for future research agendas, emphasizing interdisciplinary collaboration, methodological innovation, and policy-relevant scholarship. This analysis contributes to advancing international relations scholarships in an era of unprecedented global complexity.

Abstract: This study examines the flows of evidence that inform urban policy in three rapidly urbanizing East African countries: Tanzania, Kenya, and Ethiopia. Using a broad definition of evidence that encompasses data, scientific knowledge, experiential insights, and contextual understanding, the research traces how different types of evidence move between local, national, and regional policy actors through three critical urban policy themes: multi-level governance and fiscal devolution, industrial strategy, and informality. The findings reveal significant disconnects between evidence generation and policy formulation. This is attributed, in part, to innate difficulties in integrating the diverse set of ethnographic data from informal economies and settlements into urban development modalities driven by national governments. The study also points to co-evolved evidence ecosystems in which national governments rely on evidence from international consultancies and multilateral agencies that favour quantitative, macro-economic data suitable for large-scale infrastructure projects. The research suggests that realizing Africa's urban potential requires not just better data, but fundamentally reformed evidentiary processes that enable bottom-up knowledge to inform top-down planning. This includes new platforms for multi-level evidence exchange, embedded urban policy advisors, and enhanced regional capacity for evidence synthesis.

Abstract: This systematic literature review examines the long-standing problem of the tragedy of the commons within the field of public administration. Through a synthetic evaluation of institutional diagnostic and organizational analysis tools, this study deconstructs the traditional dichotomy between centralized state control and local self-governance. The findings reveal a critical interpretive gap: the lack of a coherent theoretical framework for the active, architectural role of the state. To fill this gap, the article develops a synthetic conceptual framework that redefines public administration not as a direct manager or an absent observer, but as an architect of multilevel, polycentric governance systems. This role involves providing institutional support, ensuring access to reliable information, managing cross-scale linkages, and guaranteeing conflict resolution. This approach shifts the focus from a search for a single solution toward the design of resilient institutional ecologies.

Abstract: Improving regional environmental performance is crucial for strengthening environmental governance. Polycentric governance theory, which emphasizes the interaction of multiple actors—including market, government, and society—within rule-based constraints, provides an essential framework for understanding the mechanisms that shape environmental performance in complex institutional contexts. This paper, set within the context of China’s environmental governance, applies polycentric governance theory to develop a three-dimensional analytical framework of "economic pressure–government attention–social supervision." Using panel data from 30 Chinese provinces between 2015 and 2023, the study employs dynamic Qualitative Comparative Analysis (dynamic QCA) to examine the asymmetric impacts of various governance factors on regional environmental performance and their dynamic evolutionary mechanisms. The study finds that: (1) no single factor is necessary for either high or low environmental performance; (2) six configurational paths for achieving high environmental performance are identified, categorized into three types: "industry structure-driven," "multi-dimensional collaboration-driven," and "economic output–social media opinion dual-driven"; (3) these paths remain relatively stable over time but exhibit periodic fluctuations, with a clear evolution point around 2021; (4) these pathways show significant spatial differentiation. This study uncovers the multi-dimensional driving mechanisms behind improvements in regional environmental performance, offering both theoretical insights and practical guidance for local governments to develop differentiated environmental governance strategies tailored to regional contexts.

Abstract: This paper presents Scheme T, a presidential framework. It originates from the author's quest for partisan continuity, whereby a mid-term presidential vacancy is filled by a successor from the same political party as the incumbent, unless a new popular election is held. While the American system fails to guarantee this due to rigid election timing, the Turkish framework offers synchronized terms and flexible scheduling; however, the current Turkish constitution suffers from “plebiscitary succession” and “violation of election synchronization”. Scheme T builds upon the Turkish framework by introducing a vice-presidential office with dual-path confirmation and mandating that double vacancy or any renewal initiative triggers a full general election, thereby eliminating standalone presidential elections. It also proposes PLAR (Popular Legislative Automatic Runoff), a novel single-round electoral method for simultaneous presidential and legislative elections that achieves fairness comparable to two-round absolute-majority systems with greater efficiency. In contrast to the current Turkish system, Scheme T removes the Assembly's direct renewal authority and introduces instead a Westminster-style no-confidence mechanism with a three-fifths threshold, restricted to the final two years of the five-year presidential term. This guarantees the president three years of secure tenure while adding confidence-based accountability. By integrating the strengths of Turkish, Westminster, and American paradigms, Scheme T combines strong executive stability with carefully calibrated democratic control, offering an elegant and innovative blueprint for building resilient and responsive presidential governments.

Abstract: Journalism plays a structurally indispensable yet under-theorized role in democratic governance. This article situates journalism within a recalibrated constitutional architecture in which the Quarta Politica—conceptualized as an Ombudsman Council—constitutes a fourth power alongside the legislative, executive, and judicial branches, endowed with distinct coercive authority oriented toward systemic correction and participatory accountability. Within this framework, journalism is not a separate power but a constitutionally protected function that secures the informational conditions upon which all four powers depend. By producing, verifying, and disseminating public information, journalism sustains accountability, enables informed participation, and facilitates collective judgment. The article reconceptualizes democracy as dependent on three interrelated dimensions: the distribution of coercive authority, the institutionalization of participatory oversight, and the integrity of the informational environment. It demonstrates that journalism performs a non-substitutable role as an early-warning and accountability-generating mechanism. Under conditions of digital transformation, platform dominance, and media fragility, these informational foundations are increasingly at risk. The article therefore advances a calibrated framework for the constitutional protection of journalism—grounded in independence, sustainability, and accountability—embedded within the Quarta Politica. A comparative perspective, including Global South contexts, underscores the generalizability of this approach across diverse democratic settings.