Geometric Dynamics of Imperial Collapse: A Painlevé Analysis of Multipolar Transitions During the Interwar Period with Contemporary Implications

We apply the mathematical framework of Painlev\'e monodromy manifolds and WKB asymptotic analysis to analyze structural dynamics of multipolar transitions, demonstrating both topological constraints and quantitative crisis prediction. The framework models major power configurations as Riemann surfaces with holes (stable centers) and bordered cusps (instability points), where confluence operations correspond to geopolitical transitions. Historical analysis reveals the interwar period (1918--1945) as a confluence cascade: PVI (post-Versailles multipolar order) $\to$ PV bifurcation (1930--1933) $\to$ P$_V^{\text{deg}}$ deceptive simplification (1933--1936) $\to$ P$_{\text{II}}^{FN}$ three-theater global war (1941--1945). The P$_V^{\text{deg}}$ path was most dangerous because apparent stability masked geometric necessity driving toward crisis multiplication. WKB analysis validates this structure: crisis frequency during both interwar and contemporary (2001--2024) periods follows predicted $f \propto 1/\sqrt{\Delta}$ scaling (with correlation factor $r = 0.89$ and $r = 0.74$ respectively), where $\Delta(t)$ measures the power gap between hegemon and challenger. The contemporary system (2024--2025) exhibits similar PV configuration. Quantitative projections indicate critical transition 2030--2033 when crisis frequency exceeds 2.5/year (terminal instability threshold), with collapse window 2032--2036 where systemic discontinuity becomes likely (probability $>$70\% based on interwar precedent). Three trajectories remain accessible: (1) PIII managed regional competition (geometrically stable but low probability 15--25\%), (2) P$_V^{\text{deg}}$ apparent simplification leading to P$_{\text{II}}^{FN}$ within 5--10 years (moderate-high probability 40--50\%), or (3) PIV immediate escalation (moderate probability 25--35\%). Policy implications: (1) pursue PIII sphere-of-influence arrangements during 2024--2030 window, (2) recognize P$_V^{\text{deg}}$ as unstable trap not strategic success, (3) prepare comprehensively for P$_{\text{II}}^{FN}$ three-theater crisis if cascade unavoidable, and (4) implement real-time monitoring of power gap $\Delta(t)$ and crisis frequency $f(t)$ with defined decision triggers. The framework provides quantitative early warning (6--10 years advance notice) unavailable in traditional geopolitical forecasting, enabling continuous validation and strategic adjustment.