Background: Heat waves are correlated with increased mortality in the aged population. Social isolation is known as a vulnerability factor. This study aims at evaluating the correlation between an intervention to reduce social isolation and the increase in mortality in the population over 80 during heat waves. Methods: The study adopts a retrospective ecologic design. We compared the excess mortality rate (EMR) in the over 80 population during heat waves in urban areas of Rome (Italy), where a program to reduce social isolation was implemented compared to others where it was not implemented. We measured mortality of the summer periods from 2015 to 2019 compared with 2014 (a year without heat waves). Winter mortality, cadastral income and proportion of over 90 were included in the multivariate Poisson regression. Results: The EMR in the intervention and controls was 2.70% and 3.81%, respectively. Rate ratio 0.70 (c.i. 0.54 - 0.92, p-value 0.01). The Incidence Rate Ratio (IRR) of the interventions with respect to the controls is 0.76 (c.i. 0.59 - 0.98). After adjusting for other variables, the IRR was 0.44 (c.i. 0.32 - 0.60). Conclusions: Reducing social isolation could limit the impact of heat waves on the mortality of the elderly population.

Although the statistical methods of downscaling climate data have progressed significantly, the development of high-resolution precipitation products continues to be a challenge. This is especially true when interest centres on downscaling value over several study sites. In this paper , we report a new downscaling method termed the multi-site Climate Generative Adversarial Network (MSCliGAN), which can simulate annual maximum precipitation to the regional scale during the 1950-2010 period in different cities in Canada by using different AOGCM's from the Coupled Model Inter-Comparison Project 6 (CMIP6) as input. Auxiliary information provided to the downscaling model included topography and land-cover. The downscaling framework uses a convolution encoder-decoder U-net network to create a generative network and a convolution encoder network to create a critic network. An adversarial training strategy is used to train the model. The critic/discriminator used Wasserstein distance as a loss measure and on the other hand the generator is optimized using a summation of content loss on Nash-Shutcliff Model Efficiency (NS), structural loss on structural similarity index (SSIM), and adversarial loss Wasserstein distance. Downscaling results show that downscaling AOGCMs by incorporating topography and land-use/land-cover can produce spatially coherent fields close to observation over multiple-sites. We believe the model has sufficient downscaling potential in data sparse regions where climate change information is often urgently needed.

This article analyzes 6 probability distributions from the Generalized Pareto family, with 3, 4 and 5 parameters, with main purpose to identify other distributions from this family with applicability in flood frequency analysis compared to the distribution already used in the literature from this family such as Generalized Pareto Type II and Wakeby. This analysis is part of a larger and more complex research carried out in the Faculty of Hydrotechnics regarding the elaboration of a norm for flood frequency analysis using the linear moments method. In Romania, the standard method of parameter estimation is the method of ordinary moments, thus the transition from this method to the method of linear moments is desired. All the necessary elements for the distributions use are presented like, the probability density functions, the complementary cumulative distribution functions, the quantile functions, the exact and approximate relations for estimating parameters, for both methods of parameters estimation. All these elements are necessary for a proper transition between the two methods, especially since the use of the method of ordinary moments is done by choosing the skewness of the observed data depending on the origin of the maximum flows. A flood frequency analysis case study, using annual maximum and annual exceedance series, was carried out for the Prigor river, to numerically present the analyzed distributions. The performance of this distributions is evaluated using relative mean error, relative absolute error and linear moments diagram.

This article presents a low-cost insurance system developed for small-hold farms in disaster-prone regions, primarily using free Earth Observation (EO) data and Free Open Source Software (FOSS) – collectively termed sustainable geoinformatics - with a proprietary mobile phone app that enables verification. The study examined 30 farms in Risaralda department, Colombia. A Digital Elevation Model (12.5m pixels) from the ALOS PALSAR satellite sensor was used with a Geographical Information System (GIS) to map the terrain, drainage and geohazards of each farming district. Google Earth Engine (GEE) was used to carry out Time Series Analysis of 15 EO and weather datasets for 1998 to 2020. This analysis enabled the levels of risk from hydrometeorological hazards to be determined for each farm of the study, providing key data for the setting of insurance premiums. A parametric insurance product was piloted using GPS-tagged, time-stamped mobile phone photos to verify crop health. Key features of this insurance system are its low operational cost and rapid damage verification, relative to conventional approaches to farm insurance. It is an affordable form of insurance for small-scale farmers, with the rapid verification and payment of claims. This relatively fast, low-cost and affordable approach to insurance for small-scale farming enhances sustainable development by enabling policy-holder farmers to recover more quickly from disasters.

On February 28th, 2023, Spanish Royal Decree 150/2023 as published, approving the plans for the management of the maritime space of the five Spanish marine demarcations. This Royal Decree Law inaugurates the Planning of the Maritime Space in Spain. Terrestrial Space Planning is very advanced, both in the legislation and in the instruments that are enabled to organize this space, from the national scale to the municipal scale, passing through the regional, provincial, and supra-municipal scales. Naturally, both Planning must converge and thus speak of an Integrated Space Planning. In some of the countries that we can take as global references, this convergence in the form of integration is taking place. On the other hand, and within the context of climate change, coastal cities will be the most affected, both by the potential rise in sea level and by the increasingly continuous and greater extreme events. Integrated Space Planning is postulated as the most effective tool to carry out adequate territorial and urban planning of our coastal cities, as well as to analyse the influence and possible corrective measures to apply against the effects produced by climate change.

Currently, Korea is experiencing localized extreme rainfall, which accounts for more than 80% of flood-related disasters, and is increasing in small river basins, where more than 60% of flood-related casualties occur. These events are caused by climate change and geological factors and their impact is becoming more severe. As a result, an effective measurement system is required to mitigate their impact, particularly in small stream basins that are especially vulnerable due to their steep slopes, small catchment areas, and lack of maintenance and management capacity. In addition, a Flood Early Warning Framework (FEWF) that forecasts discharge and depth during flood events is crucial for reducing casualties. Therefore, this research is focused on developing the FEWF using the nomograph and rating curve methods, which are established by the robust constrained nonlinear equation solver and are suitable for small streams. The FEWF is evaluated using real-time data observed over 7-years period from the Closed-circuit Television-based Automatic Discharge Measurement Technology (CADMT), and the results show that the FEWF is effective in forecasting discharge and depth during flood events. The use of CADMT technology for real-time data can develop an accurate and reliable FEWF, which can help mitigate the impacts of extreme rainfall events and reduce the number of flood-related casualties in small stream basins.

Rainfall variability has resulted in extreme events like devastating floods and droughts which is the main cause of human vulnerability to precipitation in West Africa. Attempts have been made by previous studies to understand rainfall variability over Ghana but these have mostly focused on the major rainy season of April-July, leaving a gap in our understanding of the variability in the September-November season which is a very important aspect of the Ghanaian climate system. The current study seeks to close this knowledge gap by employing statistical tools to quantify variabilities in rainfall amounts, rain days, and extreme precipitation indices in the minor rainfall season over Ghana. We find extremely high variability in rainfall with a Coefficient of variation (CV) between 25.3% and 70.8%, and moderate to high variability in rain days (CV=14.0% - 48.8%). Rainfall amount was found to be higher over the middle sector (262.7 mm – 400.2 mm) but lowest over the east coast (125.2 mm – 181.8 mm). Analysis of the second rainfall season using the Mankandell Test presents a non-significant trend of rainfall amount and extreme indices (R10, R20, R99p, and R99p) for many places in southern Ghana. Rainfall Anomaly Indices show that the middle sector recorded above normal precipitation which is the opposite for areas in the transition zone. The result of this work provides a good understanding of rainfall in the minor rainfall season and may be used for planning purposes.

The traditional sequent peak algorithm (SPA) was used to assess the reservoir volume (VR) for comparison with deficit volume, DT, (subscript T representing the return period) obtained from the drought magnitude (DM) based method with draft level set at the mean annual flow on 15 rivers across Canada. At an annual scale, the SPA based estimates were found to be larger with an average of nearly 70% compared to DM based estimates. To ramp up DM based estimates to be in parity with SPA based values, the analysis was carried out through the counting and the analytical procedures involving only the annual SHI (standardized hydrological index, i.e. standardized values of annual flows) sequences. It was found that MA2 or MA3 (moving average of 2 or 3 consecutive values) of SHI sequences were required to match the counted values of DT to VR. Further, the inclusion of mean, as well as the variance of the drought intensity in the analytical procedure, with aforesaid smoothing led DT comparable to VR. The distinctive point in the DM based method is that no assumption is necessary such as the reservoir being full at the beginning of the analysis - as is the case with SPA.

Since its initial development in the 1970’s by Phil Burke and his collaborators, the R-matrix theory and associated computer codes have become the de facto approach for the calculation of accurate data for general electron-atom/ion/molecule collision and photoionization processes. The use of a non-orthonormal set of orbitals based on B-splines, now called the B-spline R-matrix (BSR) approach, was pioneered by Zatsarinny. It has considerably extended the flexibility of the approach and improved particularly the treatment of complex many-electron atomic and ionic targets, for which accurate data are needed in many modelling applications for processes involving low-temperature plasmas. Both the original R-matrix approach and the BSR method have been extended to the interaction of short, intense electromagnetic (EM) radiation with atoms and molecules. Here we provide an overview of the theoretical tools that were required to facilitate the extension of the theory to the time domain. As an example of a practical application, we show results for two-photon ionization of argon by intense short-pulse extreme ultraviolet radiation

Cryptocurrencies have obtained a crucial position in the international financial landscape. The cryptocurrency market has been perceived as a highly volatile market since the inception of Bitcoin. This study investigates the relevant performance of extreme value models (EVM) in estimating the Value-at-Risk (VaR) of Bitcoin and Ethereum returns. The extreme value mixture models, GPD-Normal-GPD (GNG) and GPD-KDE-GPD models are fitted to the returns of Bitcoin and Ethereum and the Kupiec likelihood backtesting procedure is performed on the VaR estimates to assess the fits. Both models’ results showed that the fits were a much more decent representation of the observed data when compared to the Normal distribution. The backtesting results showed that the GPD-KDE-GPD model’s fit was superior to that of the GPD-Normal-GPD for both sets of returns at all VaR risk levels except at the 99% level. The results of this study may assist with understanding the dynamics and risks associated with cryptocurrencies and can serve as a beneficial tool for decision-making and risk management to investors, traders, financial institutions and many other participants in the cryptocurrency ecosystem.

Surface waves generated by Extra-Tropical Cyclones (ETCs) can significantly affect shipping, fishing, offshore oil and gas production and other marine activities. This paper presents results of satellite-data-based investigation of wind waves generated by two North Atlantic ETCs. These ETCs were fast-moving systems, inhibiting resonance (synchronism) between the group velocity of the generated waves and the ETC translation velocity. For these cases, the wave generation begins when the front-boundary of the storm appears at a given ocean location point. Since developing waves are slow, they move backward relative to the storm, grow in time, and then leave the ETC stormy area through the rear sector. Multi-satellite observations confirm such a paradigm, and reveal that the storm regions is filled up with young developing wind waves which are most developed in the rear-right sector. As observed, the energy of these waves was growing in time during the ETC life span. It is demonstrated that the extended-fetch concept (inherent for Tropical Cyclones) does not apply for ETC. Instead, by analogy, the concept of extended-duration wave growth concept is more relevant. Satellite observations well confirm the validity of duration-laws for waves generated by ETCs, and demonstrate that extended-fetch regime for observing waves can only asymptotically be achieved, - at time intervals exceeding the lifespan of considered ETCs.

Commercial buildings are a significant consumer of energy worldwide. Logistics facilities, and specifically warehouses, are a common building type yet under-researched in the demand-side energy forecasting literature. Warehouses have an idiosyncratic profile when compared to other commercial and industrial buildings with a significant reliance on a small number of energy systems. As such, warehouse owners and operators are increasingly entering in to energy performance contracts with energy service companies (ESCOs) to minimise environmental impact, reduce costs, and improve competitiveness. ESCOs and warehouse owners and operators require accurate forecasts of their energy consumption so that precautionary and mitigation measures can be taken. This paper explores the performance of three machine learning models (Support Vector Regression (SVR), Random Forest, and Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost)), three deep learning models (Recurrent Neural Networks (RNN), Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), and Gated Recurrent Unit (GRU)), and a classical time series model, Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) for predicting daily energy consumption. The dataset comprises 8,040 records generated over an 11-month period from January to November 2020 from a non-refrigerated logistics facility located in Ireland. The grid search method was used to identify the best configurations for each model. The proposed XGBoost models outperform other models for both very short load forecasting (VSTLF) and short term load forecasting (STLF); the ARIMA model performed the worst.

Diagnostics is believed to drive about 70% of medical interventions, but this may not be true for all demographics. With more than 30% of the African population living in extreme poverty ($1.9 per day - 2022); and healthcare costs competing unfavorably against unbridled access to antibiotics and herbal concoctions, especially in Sub-Saharan Africa, how do you convince such a people to choose diagnostics first? More importantly, how do you design a medical device targeted at meeting the diagnostic needs of this demographic? In developing diagnostic devices for such a market, what is worth sacrificing? How dire is the need for advanced technologies in devices developed for such a demographic? These are questions that remain unaddressed by the technological breakthroughs and current research in medical device development, especially for infectious disease diagnostics. The objective of this paper is to underscore critical concerns which must be considered in the bid to successfully design medical diagnostic devices for Africa and perhaps, other limited-resource settings. It is also written as a suggestive guidance document for researchers whose interest is in the development of infectious disease diagnostic platforms for rural Africa and similar limited-resource environments.

In a previous companion study, satellite data were used to describe peculiar characteristics of ocean surface wave fields, generated by two extra-tropical cyclones (ETCs) rapidly propagating in the North Atlantic. Based on a 2D parametric wave model, further details are now provided to analyse and interpret the spatio-temporal evolution of ETC very intense generated waves. Significant wave height and wavelength values are shown to reach extreme values, 18 m and 500 m, respectively. Resulting energetic swell systems waves then radiate in the whole eastern part of North Atlantic, and more particularly in the Norwegian sea region. Moving to higher latitudes, wind forcing characteristics of ETCs evolve, with the shape of the wind field changing from quasi-cyclonic to "air jets/Icelandic lows". In this paper, the resulting swell generation and propagation, after the deformation of an individual ETC, are studied, as well. Confirmed with comparisons with multi-satellite observations, the application of the parametric-2D wave-ray model is demonstrated to provide robust and highly detailed information on wave generation under very complex wind regime changes.

This article explores the intersection of innovative leadership and climate change, aiming to provide outstanding contributions to the existing body of knowledge in this field. The article identifies the critical role of innovative leadership in driving sustainable solutions and strategies for addressing climate change. It examines the defining characteristics and behaviors of innovative leaders and explores how their transformative leadership approaches can create a positive impact on climate change mitigation and adaptation efforts. The article also highlights the importance of fostering innovation within organizations and societies to tackle the complex challenges posed by climate change. Through a comprehensive review of relevant literature and case studies, this article presents novel insights, theoretical frameworks, and practical implications for policymakers, organizations, and individuals involved in climate change leadership.

A new generation of nano-technologies is expanding solid propulsion capabilities and increasing their relevance for versatile and manoeuvrable micro-satellites with safe high-performance propulsion. We propose the innovative concept, connected with application of new synergistic effect of the energetic materials performance enhancement and reaction zones programming for the next generation small satellite multimode solid propulsion system. The main idea of suggested concept is manipulating by the self-organized wave patterns excitation phenomenon, by the properties of the energetic materials reaction zones and by localization of the energy release areas. This synergistic effect can be provided through application of the functionalized carbon-based nanostructured metamaterials as a nano-additives along with simultaneous manipulating by their properties through the electrostatic field. Mentioned effect will be controlled through predictive programming both by the spatial structure and physics-chemical properties of the functionalized carbon-based nano-additives and through the electromagnetic control of the self-organized wave pattern excitation and micro- and nano- scale oscillatory networks in the energetic material reaction zones. Suggested new concept makes it possible to increase the energetic material regression rate and increase the thrust of the solid propulsion system with minimal additional energy consumption.