Preprint Article Version 1 Preserved in Portico This version is not peer-reviewed

Compatibility of Drought Magnitude Based Method With Spa for Assessing Reservoir Volumes: Analysis Using Canadian River Flows

Version 1 : Received: 12 July 2021 / Approved: 13 July 2021 / Online: 13 July 2021 (11:25:59 CEST)

How to cite: Sharma, T.C.; Panu, U. Compatibility of Drought Magnitude Based Method With Spa for Assessing Reservoir Volumes: Analysis Using Canadian River Flows. Preprints 2021, 2021070301 (doi: 10.20944/preprints202107.0301.v1). Sharma, T.C.; Panu, U. Compatibility of Drought Magnitude Based Method With Spa for Assessing Reservoir Volumes: Analysis Using Canadian River Flows. Preprints 2021, 2021070301 (doi: 10.20944/preprints202107.0301.v1).

Abstract

The traditional sequent peak algorithm (SPA) was used to assess the reservoir volume (VR) for comparison with deficit volume, DT, (subscript T representing the return period) obtained from the drought magnitude (DM) based method with draft level set at the mean annual flow on 15 rivers across Canada. At an annual scale, the SPA based estimates were found to be larger with an average of nearly 70% compared to DM based estimates. To ramp up DM based estimates to be in parity with SPA based values, the analysis was carried out through the counting and the analytical procedures involving only the annual SHI (standardized hydrological index, i.e. standardized values of annual flows) sequences. It was found that MA2 or MA3 (moving average of 2 or 3 consecutive values) of SHI sequences were required to match the counted values of DT to VR. Further, the inclusion of mean, as well as the variance of the drought intensity in the analytical procedure, with aforesaid smoothing led DT comparable to VR. The distinctive point in the DM based method is that no assumption is necessary such as the reservoir being full at the beginning of the analysis - as is the case with SPA.

Subject Areas

Deficit volume; drought intensity; drought magnitude; extreme number theorem; Markov chain; moving average smoothing; standardized hydrological index; sequent peak algorithm; reservoir volume.

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