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Preprint ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202404.1019.v1

On Static and Dynamic Strategic Approaches for Allocating and Managing Asset Values in Presence of Financial Inflation

Xin Gao, Feifan Ni, Yingmei Wang, Bowen Jin, Luyao Zhang, Yudong Zhang

Subject: Business, Economics And Management, Econometrics And Statistics Keywords: Static fiscal management; dynamic strategic approach; asset appreciation; theory of broad money; dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE)

Online: 16 April 2024 (16:21:32 CEST)

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Preprint ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202404.0921.v1

Measurement and Spatiotemporal Dynamic Evolution of China's High-Quality Economic Development

Liang Yin, Xiaodong Bai, Xuelian Sun

Subject: Business, Economics And Management, Econometrics And Statistics Keywords: high-quality development; five principles of development; entropy method; cluster analysis; kernel density estimation

Online: 15 April 2024 (08:00:31 CEST)

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Preprint ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202404.0546.v1

Companies with at Least 10 Employees Selling Online across the Italian Regions

Angelo Leogrande

Subject: Business, Economics And Management, Econometrics And Statistics Keywords: Innovation; Innovation and Invention; Management of Technological Innovation and R&; D; Technological Change; Intellectual Property and Intellectual Capital

Online: 8 April 2024 (16:06:24 CEST)

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Preprint ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202404.0517.v1

Analysis of Immediate Effects of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Small and Medium-Sized Enterprises (SMEs) in Rwanda: Firm-Level Data Analysis

Emmanuel Munyemana, Joseph K. Mung’atu, Charles Ruranga

Subject: Business, Economics And Management, Econometrics And Statistics Keywords: wood; firm; COVID-19 and SMEs; regression models

Online: 8 April 2024 (08:46:54 CEST)

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Preprint ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202404.0133.v1

A Systemic Approach on Product Life Cycle for Product Development Process in Agriculture

Franciele Lourenço, Marcelo Gonçalves, Osiris Canciglieri Júnior, Izamara Palheta Dias, Guilherme Benitez, Elpidio Nara

Subject: Business, Economics And Management, Econometrics And Statistics Keywords: Sustainability Practices; Life-Cycle Assessment; Product Development Process; Market Perfor-mance; Systemic approach.

Online: 2 April 2024 (16:05:11 CEST)

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For a long time, a company's Product Development Process (PDP) was seen as supporting the operations department, although PDP decisions and mistakes have a considerable impact on market performance. This is critical even in agriculture where bad habits and practices in the PDP can lead rural producers to great losses. Therefore, this research investigated the effect on the market performance of rural products (banana) in the southern region of Brazil, based on two analyses: (i) how sustainability practices support the PDP phases and (ii) how the phases of the Product Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) mediate sustainability practices and PDP phases. This study presents a quantitative analysis using Confirmatory Factor Analysis (CFA) and hierarchical ordinary least squares (OLS) regression of data obtained from a survey of 110 rural producers who directly participate in the banana production and planning process in southern Brazil. Our results shows that sustainability practices support the PDP, and we confirm that the product development and post-development phase has an effect on market performance. In addition, we identified that in the pre-development phase of the PDP, dealing with rural products (bananas), the maturity stage of the LCA mediates sustainability. In the PDP development phase, we concluded that rural families that develop economic and environmental practices with their products in the market growth phase may have reduced results. As for the post-development phase of the PDP, we conclude that when companies invest in environmental and social practices, there is a complete mediation of the effect, where these practices lose strength if the product is in the introduction and maturity phases in the market. As originality, our study contributed to demonstrate value on the product life cycle for the product development process in agriculture using sustainability practices through a systemic approach, filling the gap in the literature due to the lack of research on these areas seen in an integrated way.

Preprint ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202403.1449.v1

On the Economic Feasibility of Creating a Digital Track Model in Kazakhstan's Railway System

Asset Durmagambetov

Subject: Business, Economics And Management, Econometrics And Statistics Keywords: digital track model; curvature error; mathematical model; economic feasibility of using DTM; optimal management

Online: 25 March 2024 (08:53:46 CET)

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Preprint CASE REPORT | doi:10.20944/preprints202403.1325.v1

Deep Learning-Based Approach for Optimizing Urban Commercial Space Expansion Using Artificial Neural Networks

Dawei Yang, Jiahui Zhao, Ping Xu, Bin Du, Jiahua Dong

Subject: Business, Economics And Management, Econometrics And Statistics Keywords: commercial space; points of interest; deep learning; BP Neural Network

Online: 22 March 2024 (05:10:56 CET)

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Preprint ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202403.0337.v1

The Effects of Local Food on Carbon Emissions: The Case of the Republic of Korea

Da-Eun Jung, Sung-Bum Yang, Seung-Ryong Yang

Subject: Business, Economics And Management, Econometrics And Statistics Keywords: local food; food miles; carbon emissions; environment; carbon footprint

Online: 6 March 2024 (14:03:26 CET)

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Preprint ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202401.2197.v2

Bayesian Feature Extraction for Two-Part Latent Variable Model with Polytomous Manifestations

Qi Zhang, Yi-Hui Zhang, And Yemao Xia

Subject: Business, Economics And Management, Econometrics And Statistics Keywords: Two-part latent variable model; spike and slab prior; Bayesian lasso; MCMC sampling; CHFS

Online: 1 February 2024 (08:47:59 CET)

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Preprint ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202401.2197.v1

Bayesian Feature Extraction for Two-Part Latent Variable Model with Polytomous Manifestations

Qi Zhang, Yi-Hui Zhang, And Yemao Xia

Subject: Business, Economics And Management, Econometrics And Statistics Keywords: Two-part latent variable model; spike and slab prior; Bayesian lasso, MCMC sampling; CHFS

Online: 31 January 2024 (10:42:15 CET)

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Preprint ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202401.0946.v1

Analyzing Size of Loss Frequency Distribution Patterns: Uncovering the Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic

Shengkun Xie, Yuanshun Li

Subject: Business, Economics And Management, Econometrics And Statistics Keywords: Rate-making; Predictive Analytics; Insurance Rate Regulation; COVID-19 Pandemic; Size of Loss Distribution

Online: 12 January 2024 (07:09:24 CET)

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Preprint ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202401.0734.v1

Public Debt and Economic Growth: A Panel Kink Regression Latent Group Structures Approach

Chaoyi Chen, Thanasis Stengos, Jianhan Zhang

Subject: Business, Economics And Management, Econometrics And Statistics Keywords: Kink regression model; Latent group structures; Public debt; Debt threshold

Online: 10 January 2024 (03:48:25 CET)

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Preprint ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202401.0487.v1

A Statistical Model for Identifying Collusive Bidding Based on Historical Quotations

Jieni Li, Fei Xie, Hongchao Guo

Subject: Business, Economics And Management, Econometrics And Statistics Keywords: collusive bidding; historical quotations; coefficient of variation; deviation rate; statistical model

Online: 8 January 2024 (01:19:39 CET)

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Preprint ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202401.0031.v1

Investigating the Determinants of Beds for High-Care Specialties in the Italian Regions in the Environmental, Social and Governance Model

Emanuela Resta, Onofrio Resta, Alberto Costantiello, Angelo Leogrande

Subject: Business, Economics And Management, Econometrics And Statistics Keywords: Analysis of Health Care Markets; Health Behaviors; Health Insurance; Public and Private; Health and Inequality; Health and Economic Development; Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health

Online: 3 January 2024 (02:02:36 CET)

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Preprint ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202401.0034.v1

The Hospital Emigration to Another Region in the Light of the Environmental, Social and Governance Model in Italy During the Period 2004-2021

Emanuela Resta, Onofrio Resta, Alberto Costantiello, Angelo Leogrande

Subject: Business, Economics And Management, Econometrics And Statistics Keywords: Analysis of Health Care Markets; Health Behaviors; Health Insurance; Public and Private; Health and Inequality; Health and Economic Development; Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health

Online: 3 January 2024 (02:01:44 CET)

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Preprint ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202312.1963.v1

How Digital Economy drive the Optimization and Upgrading of Industrial Structure? the Mediating Effect of Innovation and the Role of Economic Resilience

Yicheng Song, Yuantao Jiang

Subject: Business, Economics And Management, Econometrics And Statistics Keywords: digital economy; industrial structure; Optimization and upgrading; economic resilience; innovation

Online: 26 December 2023 (10:05:37 CET)

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Preprint ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202312.1916.v1

Game Models for Ordering and Channel Decisions of New and Differentiated Remanufactured Products in a Closed-Loop Supply Chain

Niu Gao, Linchi Qu, Yuan-Tao Jiang, Jian Hou

Subject: Business, Economics And Management, Econometrics And Statistics Keywords: Closed-loop supply chain; Channel power structures; Sales effort; Emergency order; Game theory

Online: 26 December 2023 (05:56:24 CET)

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Preprint ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202312.1231.v1

Natural Gas Matters: LNG and India’s Quest for Clean Energy

Subhadip Ghosh, Rajarshi Majumder, Bidisha Chatterjee

Subject: Business, Economics And Management, Econometrics And Statistics Keywords: non-renewable energy sources; energy demand forecasting; natural gas consumption and production forecasting; LNG import; natural gas industry; India

Online: 18 December 2023 (06:13:54 CET)

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Preprint ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202312.1090.v1

Using probabilistic machine learning methods to improve beef cattle price modeling and promote beef production efficiency and sustainability in Canada

Elham Rahmani, Mohammad Khatami, Emma Stephens

Subject: Business, Economics And Management, Econometrics And Statistics Keywords: Machine Learning, Probabilistic Modeling, Multivariate and Univariate Modeling, Support Vector Regression, Random Forest, Adaboost, ARIMA, SARIMA, SARIMAX, Canadian Cattle Price Modeling

Online: 14 December 2023 (11:08:54 CET)

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Preprint ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202311.1404.v1

DAO Dynamics: Treasury and Market Cap Interaction

Ioannis Karakostas, Konstantinos Pantelidis

Subject: Business, Economics And Management, Econometrics And Statistics Keywords: Carbon-offset tokens; DAO; DeFi; EGARCH; Granger Causality; ReFi; DeFi Treasury

Online: 22 November 2023 (07:26:05 CET)

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Preprint ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202311.0912.v1

Demand Analysis Models to Support Cultural Tourism Strategy: Application of Conjoint Analysis in North Sardinia (Italy)

Cristina Coscia, Francesca Pasquino

Subject: Business, Economics And Management, Econometrics And Statistics Keywords: conjoint analysis; inner territories; willingness to pay; consumer behaviour; Sardinia

Online: 14 November 2023 (11:40:43 CET)

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Preprint ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202311.0236.v1

How Can Blue Economy Contribute to Inclusive Growth and Ecosystem Resources in Asia? A Comparative analysis of Economic, Environmental, and Social Indicators Among 19 Asian Cooperation Dialogue Members

Muhammad Aamir Mahmood, Qamar Ali

Subject: Business, Economics And Management, Econometrics And Statistics Keywords: Inclusive growth; economic; environmental; and social indicators; asian cooperation dialogue; Driscoll Kraay’s standard errors regression; fishery and aquaculture production; tradeoffs between development and sustainability; renewable energy utilization

Online: 3 November 2023 (14:44:59 CET)

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This study investigates how a range of economic, environmental, and social indicators have influenced the concept of inclusive growth in 19 member countries of the Asian Cooperation Dialogue over the period spanning from 1995 to 2021. To analyze these relationships, the research employs the Driscoll Kraay's Standard Errors regression technique, designed to account for factors such as cross-sectional dependence, hetero-scedasticity, and autocorrelation within the data. Furthermore, various preliminary tests were conducted to assess the data for cross-sectional dependence, slope heterogeneity, heteroscedasticity, and autocorrelation. Additionally, the Westerlund cointegration test was employed to evaluate the potential long-term equilibrium relationships among the variables. The findings reveal that the influence of independent variables on the dependent variable, which in this case is the level of inclusive growth (ING), differs significantly among three distinct income categories: lower-middle-income countries (LMYCs), upper-middle-income countries (UMYCs), and high-income countries (HYCs). Notably, the results underscore the overall statistical significance and robust fit of the regression model for all three income groups. One of the primary contribu-tions of this research is the provision of empirical evidence concerning the role played by fishery and aquaculture production in fostering inclu-sive growth in the Asian context. This research also highlights the trade-offs between economic development and environmental sustainability in terms of trade openness, agriculture, forestry and fishing, ecological footprint, and renewable energy utilization. Enhancing inclusive growth in Asia requires improving fishery and aquaculture management, diversifying economic activities, reducing ecological footprint, and increasing renewable energy utilization. The paper suggests some future work directions for extending the analysis to other regions and indicators, as well as incorporating dynamic panel data models and causality tests. The paper also suggests some policy implications for fostering inclusive growth in Asia through regional cooperation, capacity building, technology transfer and green financing.

Preprint ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202310.0310.v3

Pivot Clustering to Minimize Error in Forecasting Aggregated ARMA Demand

Vladimir Kovtun, Avi Giloni, Clifford Hurvich, Sridhar Seshadri

Subject: Business, Economics And Management, Econometrics And Statistics Keywords: forecasting aggregate demand; clustering time series; pivot clustering; ARMA model; order-up-to policy

Online: 25 October 2023 (13:20:27 CEST)

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Preprint ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202310.1630.v1

Stochastic Claims Reserve in the Healthcare System: A New Methodology Applied in Italy

Claudio Mazzi, Angelo Damone, Andrea Vandelli, Gastone Ciuti, Milena Vainieri

Subject: Business, Economics And Management, Econometrics And Statistics Keywords: healthcare; claims reserving; generalized linear models; medical malpractice; error estimation

Online: 25 October 2023 (09:52:44 CEST)

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Preprint ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202310.0310.v2

Pivot Clustering to Minimize Error in Forecasting Aggregated ARMA Demand

Vladimir Kovtun, Avi Giloni, Clifford Hurvich, Sridhar Seshadri

Subject: Business, Economics And Management, Econometrics And Statistics Keywords: Forecasting Aggregate Demand; Clustering Time Series; Pivot Clustering; ARMA Demand; Order-up-to policy.

Online: 16 October 2023 (16:59:16 CEST)

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Preprint ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202310.0310.v1

Pivot Clustering to Minimize Error in Forecasting Aggregated ARMA Demand

Vladimir Kovtun, Avi Giloni, Clifford Hurvich, Sridhar Seshadri

Subject: Business, Economics And Management, Econometrics And Statistics Keywords: Forecasting Aggregate Demand; Clustering Time Series; Pivot Clustering; ARMA Demand; Order-up-to policy.

Online: 10 October 2023 (13:23:25 CEST)

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Preprint ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202310.0230.v1

Energy Efficiency Forecast as an Inverse Stochastic Problem: A Cross-Entropy Econometrics Approach

Second Bwanakare

Subject: Business, Economics And Management, Econometrics And Statistics Keywords: overall energy efficiency score; energetic intensity; non-extensive cross-entropy econometrics; stochastic inverse problems; regional innovation

Online: 4 October 2023 (10:22:50 CEST)

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Preprint ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202309.2150.v1

Machine Learning to Forecast the Financial Bubbles in Stock Market: Evidence in Vietnam

Kim Long Tran, Hoang Anh Le, Cap Phu Lieu, Duc Trung Nguyen

Subject: Business, Economics And Management, Econometrics And Statistics Keywords: financial bubbles; machine learning algorithms; Vietnamese stock market

Online: 30 September 2023 (05:46:52 CEST)

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Preprint ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202309.2008.v1

Can Technological Innovation and Financial Agglomeration Promote the Growth of Real Economy? Evidence From China

Tao Wang, Shuhong Wang, Wei Ding, Huiwen Guo

Subject: Business, Economics And Management, Econometrics And Statistics Keywords: technological innovation; financial agglomeration; real economy growth; space spillover effect

Online: 28 September 2023 (11:21:52 CEST)

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Preprint ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202309.1884.v1

Textile Export Nexus in Bangladesh: An Econometric Exploration

Md. Mahbubur Rahman

Subject: Business, Economics And Management, Econometrics And Statistics Keywords: textile industry; bangladesh; econometric analysis; export trends; global demand; policy recommendations

Online: 27 September 2023 (11:53:58 CEST)

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Preprint ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202308.1139.v2

The Impact of Agricultural Credit on the Growth of the Agricultural Sector in Angola

Mario A. Caetano Joao, Abreu Monteiro de Castro

Subject: Business, Economics And Management, Econometrics And Statistics Keywords: agricultural sector; agricultural credit; economic growth; Angola; ARDL model; econometric analysis

Online: 26 September 2023 (13:53:32 CEST)

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Preprint ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202309.1664.v1

Analysis of Price Influencing Factors of Small-Scale Agricultural Products Based on Network Perspective

Lifang Fu, Huaxu Zhang

Subject: Business, Economics And Management, Econometrics And Statistics Keywords: small-scale agricultural products; price affecting factors; text analysis; sentiment analysis; TVP-VAR model

Online: 26 September 2023 (08:16:34 CEST)

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Preprint ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202309.1400.v1

Global and Local Approaches for Forecasting of Long-Term Natural Gas Consumption in Poland Based on Hierarchical Short Time Series

Bartłomiej Gaweł, Andrzej Paliński

Subject: Business, Economics And Management, Econometrics And Statistics Keywords: hierarchical forecasting; short time series; local approach; global approach; household gas consumption

Online: 21 September 2023 (05:39:44 CEST)

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Preprint ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202309.0986.v1

How to Determine the Optimal Number of Cardiologists in the Region?

Artur Nagapetyan, Alexander Drozd, Dmitry Subbotovsky

Subject: Business, Economics And Management, Econometrics And Statistics Keywords: health care markets; cardiovascular mortality; health care workforce; applied microeconometrics; spatial econometrics; instrumental variable method; quasi-public goods

Online: 14 September 2023 (10:51:27 CEST)

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Preprint ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202309.0413.v1

Introduction to Cross-Section Spatial Econometric Models with Applications in R

Coro Chasco, Andrés Vallone

Subject: Business, Economics And Management, Econometrics And Statistics Keywords: Spatial Econometrics; Spatial Weight Matrix; Spatial Autocorrelation; Cross-Section Models; R Software

Online: 7 September 2023 (03:27:25 CEST)

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Preprint ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202309.0382.v1

GARMA, HAR and Rules of Thumb for Modelling Realised Volatility

David Edmund Allen, Shelton Peiris

Subject: Business, Economics And Management, Econometrics And Statistics Keywords: GARMA; gegenbaur processes; HAR models; realised volatility; rules of thumb

Online: 6 September 2023 (10:26:40 CEST)

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Preprint ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202308.1240.v1

The Development and Validation of a Lightweight Automated Stock Trading System Using Deep Learning Models: Employing Technical Analysis Methods

SeongJae Yu, Sung-Byung Yang, Sang-Hyeak Yoon

Subject: Business, Economics And Management, Econometrics And Statistics Keywords: Attention Mechanism; Stock Forecasting; Deep Learning; Technical Analysis Method; Lightweight Automated Stock Trading System

Online: 17 August 2023 (09:04:02 CEST)

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Individual investors often struggle to predict stock prices due to the limitations imposed by the computational capacities of personal laptop Graphics Processing Units (GPUs) when running intensive deep learning models. This study proposes solving these GPU constraints by integrating deep learning models with technical analysis methods. This integration significantly reduces analysis time and equips individual investors with the ability to identify stocks that may yield potential gains or losses in an efficient manner. Thus, a comprehensive buy and sell algorithm, compatible with average laptop GPU performance, is introduced in the study. This algorithm offers a lightweight analysis method that emphasizes factors identified by technical analysis methods, thereby providing a more accessible and efficient approach for individual investors. To evaluate the efficacy of this approach, we analyzed the performance of eight deep learning models: LSTM (4 layers), CNN, BiLSTM (4 layers), CNN Attention, BiGRU CNN BiLSTM Attention, BiLSTM Attention CNN, CNN BiLSTM Attention, and CNN Attention BiLSTM. These models were used to predict stock prices for Samsung Electronics and Celltrion Healthcare. The CNN Attention BiLSTM model displayed superior performance among these models, with the lowest validation mean absolute error value. In addition, an experiment was conducted using WandB Sweep to determine the optimal hyperparameters for four individual hybrid models. These optimal parameters were then implemented in each model to validate their back-testing rate of return. The CNN Attention BiLSTM hybrid model emerged as the highest-performing model, achieving an approximate rate of return of 5 percent. Overall, this study offers valuable insights into the performance of various deep learning and hybrid models in predicting stock prices. These findings can assist individual investors in selecting appropriate models that align with their investment strategies, thereby increasing their likelihood of success in the stock market.

Preprint ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202308.1228.v1

Regional Differences in Willingness to Pay for Mitigation of Air Pollution from Coal-Fired Power Plants in South Korea

Dmitriy Li, Meenakshi Rishi, Jeong Hwan Bae

Subject: Business, Economics And Management, Econometrics And Statistics Keywords: PM2.5 emission; regional difference; Contingent valuation method; Willingness To Pay; Coal-fired power plants

Online: 17 August 2023 (04:04:54 CEST)

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Preprint ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202308.1139.v1

The Impact of Agricultural Credit on the Growth of the Agricultural Sector in Angola

Mario A. Caetano Joao, Abreu Monteiro de Castro

Subject: Business, Economics And Management, Econometrics And Statistics Keywords: agricultural sector; agri-credit; economic growth; Angola; econometric analysis

Online: 15 August 2023 (15:48:41 CEST)

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Preprint ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202308.0785.v1

Innovation and Drivers of Productivity: A Global Analysis of Selected Critical Minerals

Shabbir Ahmad

Subject: Business, Economics And Management, Econometrics And Statistics Keywords: mining innovation; technology; efficiency & productivity; scale & scope economies; DEA

Online: 9 August 2023 (14:37:48 CEST)

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Preprint ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202307.2014.v1

Should Selection of the Optimum Stochastic Mortality Model Be Based on the Original or the Logarithmic Scale of the Mortality Rate?

Miguel Santolino

Subject: Business, Economics And Management, Econometrics And Statistics Keywords: Longevity risk; stochastic mortality models; Lee-Carter; model selection

Online: 28 July 2023 (12:31:25 CEST)

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Preprint ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202307.0187.v1

VaR Estimation Using Extreme Value Mixture Models for Cryptocurrencies

Stephanie Danielle Subramoney, Knowledge Chinhamu, Retius Chifurira

Subject: Business, Economics And Management, Econometrics And Statistics Keywords: Bitcoin; cryptocurreny; extreme value models (EVM); GPD-Normal-GPD (GNG); generalised Pareto distribution (GPD); Kernel density estimator (KDE); Normal distribution; Value-at-Risk (VaR)

Online: 4 July 2023 (11:29:36 CEST)

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Preprint ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202306.2083.v1

Circulation Expectations, Trust, and Farmers' Contract Choice Behavior

Hong ming Yong, Long Jiao, Zhuo wen Jun

Subject: Business, Economics And Management, Econometrics And Statistics Keywords: Contractual choices; Land transfer; Expectations; Trust; Probit model; Market-oriented land reform

Online: 29 June 2023 (09:54:32 CEST)

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Preprint ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202306.1077.v1

Evaluating and Improving the Metropolitan Economic Freedom Index

Arvind Sharma, Aleksander Tomic, Lawrence Fulton

Subject: Business, Economics And Management, Econometrics And Statistics Keywords: economic freedom; factor analysis; MEFI; labor market; government spending; taxation

Online: 15 June 2023 (07:26:59 CEST)

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Preprint ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202306.0635.v1

Exploring the Connection Between Clean and Dirty Energy: Implications for the Transition to a Carbon Resilient Economy

Rui Dias, Nuno Teixeira, Paulo M. Alexandre, Mariana Chambino

Subject: Business, Economics And Management, Econometrics And Statistics Keywords: clean energy; dirty energy; dependency; hedge; safe haven

Online: 8 June 2023 (10:50:42 CEST)

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Preprint ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202306.0627.v1

An Evolutionary Analysis of Higher-Order Interaction Collaborative Innovation Networks in China's New Energy Vehicle Industry

Yuan Yuan, Jinli Guo, Zhaohua Guo

Subject: Business, Economics And Management, Econometrics And Statistics Keywords: New energy vehicle; Higher-order interaction network; Generalized degree; Simplicial complex

Online: 8 June 2023 (10:35:23 CEST)

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Preprint ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202305.1743.v1

Pastoral Differentiations on WTA Valuation for Grassland Eco-Subsidy – Empirical Study of 410 Herder Households in Grass-Livestock Balance Sub-Policy Zones in Inner Mongolia, China

Jiayu Dong, Zimeng Ren, Xinling Zhang, Xiaoling Liu

Subject: Business, Economics And Management, Econometrics And Statistics Keywords: Willingness to accept compensation (WTA); expectation of compensation; horizontal/vertical differentiations of pastoral households

Online: 25 May 2023 (05:42:27 CEST)

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Preprint ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202305.1627.v1

Applying Logarithmic Transformation, Sine Wave and Amplitude: An Emerging Global Pattern of Economic Growth and Human Development

Demetria May Saniel

Subject: Business, Economics And Management, Econometrics And Statistics Keywords: Human Development Index; Education Index; Health Index; Standard of Living Index; Gross Domestic Product; Complex Adaptive Systems; Logarithmic Transformation; Sine Wave; Amplitude

Online: 23 May 2023 (08:40:39 CEST)

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Preprint HYPOTHESIS | doi:10.20944/preprints202305.1281.v1

A Quantitative Study on the Effectiveness of the Governance Attributes on ‘Industry-Wise Earnings Quality’ in the UK

Rishiram Aryal, Washad Emambocus, Gurjit Dhesi, Ebikinei Stanley Eguruze

Subject: Business, Economics And Management, Econometrics And Statistics Keywords: Corporate Governance; Earnings Management; Industry-wise

Online: 18 May 2023 (05:50:50 CEST)

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Preprint ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202304.0369.v1

Study on Pricing of High Dimensional Financial Derivatives Based on Deep Learning

Xiangdong Liu, Yu Gu

Subject: Business, Economics And Management, Econometrics And Statistics Keywords: Deep learning; Backward stochastic differential equation; Nonlinear Feynman-Kac formula; High dimensional PDE; Derivatives pricing; Neural network

Online: 14 April 2023 (10:44:44 CEST)

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Preprint ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202303.0115.v1

Endogenous Innovation and Export Performance in Firms

Oliviero Antonio Carboni, Giuseppe Medda

Subject: Business, Economics And Management, Econometrics And Statistics Keywords: European firms; R&; D; innovation; export; IV and fractional response model

Online: 7 March 2023 (01:32:45 CET)

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Preprint ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202301.0248.v1

Making Impact on Common Financial Factors Affecting Liquidity Ratio Based on Greedy Approach through Price Movement in Stock Market

Prakash P, Krishnaprabha S, Sundararajan S

Subject: Business, Economics And Management, Econometrics And Statistics Keywords: Liquidity Risks; Financial Liquidity Factors; Liquidity Crisis; Stock Market; Market Transparency; Greedy Approach

Online: 13 January 2023 (09:30:56 CET)

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Preprint ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202301.0060.v1

The Environmental Kuznets Curve hypothesis for Colombia: impact of economic development on greenhouse gas emissions and ecological footprint

Jorge A Acevedo, Carlos Felipe Valencia, Carlos Darío Valencia

Subject: Business, Economics And Management, Econometrics And Statistics Keywords: carbon dioxide emissions; Ecological footprint; Economic growth; EKC hypothesis; Environmental degradation; ARDL; Methane emissions

Online: 4 January 2023 (03:44:17 CET)

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Preprint ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202211.0216.v1

A Study on the Bilateral Trade Relations between China and ASEAN Ten Countries Based on Lotka-Volterra Model

Wen-Xi Ruan, Xin Yu, Sheng-Yuan Wang, Tian-Cheng Zhao, Ya-Zhen Liu

Subject: Business, Economics And Management, Econometrics And Statistics Keywords: Ten ASEAN countries; Bilateral trade; Lotka-Volterra model; commensalism; competition

Online: 11 November 2022 (04:05:04 CET)

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Preprint ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202210.0201.v1

Evaluating Portuguese Public Hospitals Performance: Any Difference Before and During COVID-19?

Alexandre Morais Nunes, Diogo Filipe da Cunha Ferreira

Subject: Business, Economics And Management, Econometrics And Statistics Keywords: Public hospitals; Performance; Efficiency; Quality; COVID19; Network-based Data Envelopment Analysis

Online: 14 October 2022 (03:37:41 CEST)

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Preprint ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202209.0446.v1

Associations and Statistical Inferences to the Productive Environment of the Oil Market: Analysis of the World’s Largest Producers from 1993 to 2020

Rafael Henrique Mainardes Ferreira, Priscila Rubbo, Claudia Tania Picinin

Subject: Business, Economics And Management, Econometrics And Statistics Keywords: petroleum; oil market; oil; statistics

Online: 28 September 2022 (15:35:31 CEST)

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Preprint ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202209.0130.v1

Sociodemographic and Economic Profile of Bicycle-Taxi Riders and Revenue Modelling in Quelimane, Mozambique

Arlete Freitas Jone, Solomon Runhungwe, Joao Luis Ferrao

Subject: Business, Economics And Management, Econometrics And Statistics Keywords: bicycle taxi; profile; sociodemographic

Online: 9 September 2022 (07:03:52 CEST)

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Preprint ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202208.0456.v1

The Impact of Rural Land Right on Farmers' Income in Underdeveloped Areas: Evidence from Micro-survey Data in Yunnan Province, China

Deng Xiang, Zhang Min, Wan Chunlin

Subject: Business, Economics And Management, Econometrics And Statistics Keywords: Rural land right; farmers’ income; farm income; non-farm income; land transfer

Online: 26 August 2022 (09:44:58 CEST)

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Preprint ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202208.0397.v1

Saving Food from Waste or Advance Selling? An Empirical Analysis of Too Good To Go Offering in Rome

Mengting Yu, Luigi Palumbo, Luca Secondi

Subject: Business, Economics And Management, Econometrics And Statistics Keywords: food waste; web scraping; Too Good To Go; empirical analysis

Online: 23 August 2022 (08:53:11 CEST)

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Preprint ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202207.0274.v2

The Temporal and Spatial Evolution of Digital Inclusive Finance and Its Boosting Effect on Rural Revitalization in China

Jin Qiu, Wenxing Chen, Renjie Tao, Chengwei Wang

Subject: Business, Economics And Management, Econometrics And Statistics Keywords: digital inclusive finance; rural revitalization; spatio-temporal evolution; Gini coefficient; GWR model

Online: 19 July 2022 (04:12:41 CEST)

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Using the 2011-2020 digital inclusive finance data released by Peking University and the index system constructed by the Blue Book of China Rural Revitalization and Development Index (2018), this paper analyzes the dynamic evolution of the digital inclusive finance and the rural revitaliza-tion from time and space dimensions with the help of kernel density estimation, Markov chain and Moran index. Using The Gini coefficient decomposition method to analyze the source of differ-ences in digital inclusive finance, and then using the spatial autoregressive (SAR) model and ge-ographically weighted regression (GWR) model to study the boosting effect of digital inclusive finance on rural revitalization from the perspective of spatial aggregation and spatial differentia-tion, respectively. The results show that: (1) The growth rate of China's digital inclusive finance slows down year by year, and the inter-provincial differences increase year by year and show gradient characteristics, indicating that there may be a trend of multipolar differentiation. The overall level of Rural Revitalization shows an increasing trend, and the gap between provinces is still apparent. (2) The evolution of digital inclusive finance and rural revitalization is a slow ad-justment process, and there has been no cross-level jump in the past ten years. In digital inclusive finance, the liquidity from the highest and lowest levels to the medium level is high. However, the liquidity in the states of rural revitalization development level is not high. (3) Rural revitalization has a positive spatial spillover effect. The level of rural revitalization in the western area is signif-icantly lower than in the eastern area. At the same time, there is no significant difference between the east and central areas. The depth of the use of digital inclusive finance has a significant positive impact on the revitalization and development of rural areas, indicating that the further promotion of digital inclusive finance business in rural areas can substantially boost the revitalization of rural areas. (4) The boosting effect of digital inclusive finance on rural revitalization shows prominent spatial differentiation characteristics. The depth of use and the degree of digitization generally show a positive impact. The central and eastern coastal cities have the highest impact, decreasing toward the southwest and northeast. The areas with the lowest usage depth impact are clustered in the northeast, and the areas with the lowest digitization impact are clustered in the southwest.

Preprint ESSAY | doi:10.20944/preprints202207.0274.v1

The Temporal and Spatial Evolution of Digital Inclusive Finance and Its Boosting Effect on Rural Revitalization in China

Jin Qiu, Wenxing Chen, Renjie Tao, Chengwei Wang

Subject: Business, Economics And Management, Econometrics And Statistics Keywords: digital inclusive finance; rural revitalization; spatio-temporal evolution; Gini coefficient; GWR model

Online: 19 July 2022 (02:52:04 CEST)

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Using the 2011-2020 digital inclusive finance data released by Peking University and the index system constructed by the Blue Book of China Rural Revitalization and Development Index (2018), this paper analyzes the dynamic evolution of the digital inclusive finance and the rural revitaliza-tion from time and space dimensions with the help of kernel density estimation, Markov chain and Moran index. Using The Gini coefficient decomposition method to analyze the source of differ-ences in digital inclusive finance, and then using the spatial autoregressive (SAR) model and ge-ographically weighted regression (GWR) model to study the boosting effect of digital inclusive finance on rural revitalization from the perspective of spatial aggregation and spatial differentia-tion, respectively. The results show that: (1) The growth rate of China's digital inclusive finance slows down year by year, and the inter-provincial differences increase year by year and show gradient characteristics, indicating that there may be a trend of multipolar differentiation. The overall level of Rural Revitalization shows an increasing trend, and the gap between provinces is still apparent. (2) The evolution of digital inclusive finance and rural revitalization is a slow ad-justment process, and there has been no cross-level jump in the past ten years. In digital inclusive finance, the liquidity from the highest and lowest levels to the medium level is high. However, the liquidity in the states of rural revitalization development level is not high. (3) Rural revitalization has a positive spatial spillover effect. The level of rural revitalization in the western area is signif-icantly lower than in the eastern area. At the same time, there is no significant difference between the east and central areas. The depth of the use of digital inclusive finance has a significant positive impact on the revitalization and development of rural areas, indicating that the further promotion of digital inclusive finance business in rural areas can substantially boost the revitalization of rural areas. (4) The boosting effect of digital inclusive finance on rural revitalization shows prominent spatial differentiation characteristics. The depth of use and the degree of digitization generally show a positive impact. The central and eastern coastal cities have the highest impact, decreasing toward the southwest and northeast. The areas with the lowest usage depth impact are clustered in the northeast, and the areas with the lowest digitization impact are clustered in the southwest.

Preprint ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202203.0281.v1

Impact of COVID-19 on Local Markets: An Application of Garch and Markov-Switching Dynamic Regression

Olawale Abimbola, Chukwudi Ogbekile, Ehizokhale Oseghale

Subject: Business, Economics And Management, Econometrics And Statistics Keywords: COVID-19; GARCH; ARCH; MSDR; Volatility

Online: 21 March 2022 (09:14:26 CET)

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Preprint ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202201.0317.v1

Prevalence and Economic Costs of Absenteeism in an Aging Population – A Quasi-Stochastic Projection for Germany

Patrizio Vanella, Christina Benita Wilke, Doris Söhnlein

Subject: Business, Economics And Management, Econometrics And Statistics Keywords: Cohort-Component Method; Multivariate Methods; Time Series Analysis; Monte Carlo Methods; Stochastic Forecasting; Demography; Statistical Epidemiology; Labor Market Research; Health Economics

Online: 21 January 2022 (10:32:54 CET)

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Preprint ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202201.0311.v1

The Replicability Crisis and the p-Value Debate – what Are the Consequences for the Agricultural and Food Economics Community?

Thomas Heckelei, Silke Hüttel, Martin Odening, Jens Rommel

Subject: Business, Economics And Management, Econometrics And Statistics Keywords: Statistical inference; p-hacking; pre-registration; publication bias; replication crisis

Online: 20 January 2022 (15:32:13 CET)

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Preprint ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202201.0126.v1

Tiebout Sorting, Zoning, and Property Tax Rates

Steven C. Bourassa, Wen-Chieh Wu

Subject: Business, Economics And Management, Econometrics And Statistics Keywords: Tiebout model; fiscal zoning; single-family zoning; property taxation; Miami

Online: 10 January 2022 (15:21:18 CET)

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Preprint ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202112.0022.v2

Equal Opportunities to Access the University in Chile? An Application with a Spatial Heckman Probit Model

Juan Luis Quiroz, Ludo Peeters, Coro Chasco, Patricio Aroca

Subject: Business, Economics And Management, Econometrics And Statistics Keywords: Heckit models; spatial effects; local spatial autocorrelation; SLX model; education accessibility; Chile

Online: 20 December 2021 (10:47:44 CET)

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Preprint ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202112.0022.v1

Equal Opportunities to Access the University in Chile? An Application with a Spatial Heckman Probit Model

Juan Luis Quiroz, Ludo Peeters, Coro Chasco, Patricio Aroca

Subject: Business, Economics And Management, Econometrics And Statistics Keywords: Heckit models; spatial effects; local spatial autocorrelation; SLX model; education accessibility; Chile

Online: 2 December 2021 (08:08:42 CET)

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Preprint ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202111.0462.v1

Dynamic Programming for Computing Power Indices for Weighted Voting Games with Precoalitions

Jochen Staudacher, Felix Wagner, Jan Filipp

Subject: Business, Economics And Management, Econometrics And Statistics Keywords: cooperative game theory; power indices; weighted voting games; dynamic programming; precoalitions; Shapley value; Owen value; Banzhaf index.

Online: 25 November 2021 (08:15:34 CET)

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Preprint ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202111.0382.v1

Food-Away-from-Home Expenditure in Mexico during the COVID-19 Pandemic: A Micro-Econometric Analysis

Antonio Aguilar-Lopez, Aleš Kuhar

Subject: Business, Economics And Management, Econometrics And Statistics Keywords: elasticity; Engel curve; food-away-from-home expenditure, COVID, Mexico

Online: 22 November 2021 (11:11:14 CET)

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Preprint ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202110.0271.v1

Smart Regions in the Italian Context. From a Theoretical to an Empirical Framework

Daniela Cialfi

Subject: Business, Economics And Management, Econometrics And Statistics Keywords: smart regions; social capital; ICT; neural network; regional performance; Italy

Online: 19 October 2021 (11:46:03 CEST)

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Preprint CASE REPORT | doi:10.20944/preprints202110.0006.v1

Can System Logs Enhance the Performance of Credit Scoring? – Evidence from an Internet Bank in Korea

Sunghyun Kyeong, Daehee Kim, Jinho Shin

Subject: Business, Economics And Management, Econometrics And Statistics Keywords: Credit scoring; Credit risk model; Big data; Digital footprints

Online: 1 October 2021 (11:32:58 CEST)

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Working Paper ARTICLE

The Analysis and the Measurement of Poverty: An Interval Based Composite Indicator Approach

Carlo Drago

Subject: Business, Economics And Management, Econometrics And Statistics Keywords: poverty; composite indicators; interval data; symbolic data

Online: 24 August 2021 (15:46:09 CEST)

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Preprint ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202108.0414.v1

The Systematic Risk at the Crisis - A Multifractal Non-uniform Wavelet Systematic Risk Estimation

Mounir Sarraj, ANOUAR BEN MABROUK

Subject: Business, Economics And Management, Econometrics And Statistics Keywords: avelets; Non-uniform wavelets; CAPM; Wavelets CAPM; systematic (market) risk; scaling; Arab spring revolutions.

Online: 20 August 2021 (12:43:26 CEST)

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Preprint ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202107.0424.v2

Can Digital Inclusive Finance Impact on the Rural Income? An Empirical Study in Henan Province, China

Xiuhui Li, Zihan Zhang, Fan Yang

Subject: Business, Economics And Management, Econometrics And Statistics Keywords: digital inclusive finance; rural income; Henan Province, China; empirical analysis; countermeasures and suggestions

Online: 29 July 2021 (11:16:10 CEST)

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Preprint ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202107.0032.v1

Nestedness-Based Measurement of Evolutionarily Stable Equilibrium of Global Production System

Jiaqi Ren, Yu Han, Lizhi Xing, Xianlei Dong

Subject: Business, Economics And Management, Econometrics And Statistics Keywords: global value chain; global economic integration; nestedness; evolutionarily stable equilibrium

Online: 1 July 2021 (14:20:58 CEST)

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Working Paper ARTICLE

Estimation of the Efficiency of the Investment Fund

Eduard Dadyan

Subject: Business, Economics And Management, Econometrics And Statistics Keywords: Efficiency of mutual funds, a deep crisis in the economy, efficiency forecast, model formation, financial investments, estimated income, mutual funds, CAPM, neural networks

Online: 31 March 2021 (22:04:28 CEST)

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Preprint ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202012.0599.v2

The COVID-19 Pandemic: Socioeconomic and Health Disparities

Behzad Javaheri

Subject: Business, Economics And Management, Econometrics And Statistics Keywords: COVID-19; mortality; socioeconomic disparity; disadvantaged groups

Online: 15 January 2021 (12:09:12 CET)

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Preprint ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202012.0695.v1

The Analysis and the Measurement of Poverty: An Interval Based Composite Indicator Approach

Carlo Drago

Subject: Business, Economics And Management, Econometrics And Statistics Keywords: poverty; composite indicators; interval data; symbolic data

Online: 28 December 2020 (12:13:39 CET)

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Preprint ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202012.0599.v1

The COVID-19 Pandemic: Socioeconomic and Health Disparities

Behzad Javaheri

Subject: Business, Economics And Management, Econometrics And Statistics Keywords: COVID-19; mortality; socioeconomic disparity; disadvantaged groups

Online: 23 December 2020 (16:29:18 CET)

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Working Paper ARTICLE

Elementary Principles in Statistical Economics

Cal Abel

Subject: Business, Economics And Management, Econometrics And Statistics Keywords: statistical mechanics; information theory; game theory; subjective utility; entropy; income inequality; distributive justice; monetary policy

Online: 12 October 2020 (12:21:04 CEST)

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Working Paper ARTICLE

Addressing Unintentional Exclusion of Vulnerable and Mobile Households in Traditional Surveys in Kathmandu, Dhaka and Hanoi: A Mixed Methods Feasibility Study

Dana Thomson, Radheshyam Bhattarai, Sudeepa Khanal, Shraddha Manandhar, Rajeev Dhungel, Subash Gajurel, Joseph P Hicks, Duong Minh Duc, Junnatul Ferdoush, Tarana Ferdous, Nushrat Jahan Urmy, Riffat Ara Shawon, Khuong Quynh Long, Ak Narayan Poudel, Chris Cartwright, Hilary Wallace, Tim Ensor, Sushil Baral, Saidur Mashreky, Rumana Huque, Hoang Van Minh, Helen Elsey

Subject: Business, Economics And Management, Econometrics And Statistics Keywords: Nepal; Vietnam; Bangladesh; gridded population sampling; GridSample; OpenStreetMap; GeoODK; cross-sectional design; urban; household survey

Online: 24 August 2020 (09:51:16 CEST)

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Preprint ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202008.0101.v1

Differences between Women and Men Regarding the Security Measures Required of the Hotel Sector to Deal with COVID-19

Alexandra Lenis Escobar, Ramón Rueda López, Antonio Menor Campos, Teresa López-Felipe

Subject: Business, Economics And Management, Econometrics And Statistics Keywords: Covid-19; tourism; security measures; sex differences; ANOVA

Online: 4 August 2020 (16:05:20 CEST)

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Preprint ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202007.0638.v1

Regionally Divergent Patterns in Factors Affecting Municipal Waste Production: The Polish Perspective

Elżbieta Antczak

Subject: Business, Economics And Management, Econometrics And Statistics Keywords: municipal waste in Poland; geographically weighted regression with spatial error term; analysis of regionally divergent determinants; spatial processes; communes; sustainable development

Online: 26 July 2020 (15:40:19 CEST)

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Preprint ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202007.0248.v1

Long-Lasting Economic Effects of Pandemics: Evidence on Growth and Unemployment

C. Vladimir Rodríguez-Caballero, J. Eduardo Vera-Valdés

Subject: Business, Economics And Management, Econometrics And Statistics Keywords: long memory; persistence; structural change; pandemics; growth; and unemployment

Online: 12 July 2020 (08:26:52 CEST)

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Preprint ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202007.0167.v1

Renewable Energy Green Innovation, Fossil Energy Consumption and Air Pollution--- Spatial Empirical Analysis Based on China

Neng Shen, Hui Peng, Yifan Wang

Subject: Business, Economics And Management, Econometrics And Statistics Keywords: renewable energy; energy consumption; air pollution; spatial dubin model; spatial analysis

Online: 9 July 2020 (06:00:31 CEST)

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Preprint ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202007.0008.v1

Youth Access to ICT Resources and Subjective Well-being in the Middle East: A Spatial Bivariate Copula Regression Analysis

Ibrahim Niankara, Ghaleb A. El-Refae, Amer Qasim

Subject: Business, Economics And Management, Econometrics And Statistics Keywords: Copula Regression; ICT resources; Middle East; Spatial Analysis; Students Well-being; Sustainable Development Goals

Online: 2 July 2020 (13:18:03 CEST)

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Target 9.c of the 2015 United Nations (UN) sustainable development goals (SDGs) specifically addresses increasing access to information and communication technology (ICT) resources, and striving for universal access to the internet by 2020. The present study seeks to evaluate the effectiveness of the youth related national strategies implemented in this regard by a select number of countries in the Middle East region. The study does so, by relying on a spatial bivariate copula regression analysis of data on youth respondents from five countries, extracted from the 2018 Program for international students’ assessment (PISA). Focusing specifically on evaluating the availability of ICT resources to the youth population, and also identifying the impact of ICT resources on youth subjective well-being in the region, we find that except for the UAE and Qatar that have above OECD average youth performance on the ICT resource index, youth from the remaining countries reported below OECD level average access to ICT resources. The within region cross-country comparative analysis of ICT resources availability to the youth population at home, also highlighted significant heterogeneity across the five countries, post 2015 SDG adoption by UN country members. Furthermore, looking at the impact of ICT resources on youth well-being, controlling for not only cross-country spatial correlations, and factors such as home educational resources, cultural possessions at home, parental occupation status, youth expected occupation status, economic and socio-cultural status, age, gender, and grade level in school; we found that every standard deviation increase in ICT resources to the youth population in the region raises their self-expressed sense of belonging in school by 1.88% standard deviations. Given the empowering nature of ICT resources to youth, and the potential of both to support national as well as regional economic development initiatives, a concerted effort to ease ICT resources diffusion by member countries in the middle east region could assist not only each country in its own development path, but also the region as a whole to live up to its growth potential by the 2030.

Preprint ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202006.0156.v2

How Rational Is the Greek Plan for Opening up Tourism?

Emmanuel Lazaridis, Estelle Clark

Subject: Business, Economics And Management, Econometrics And Statistics Keywords: Health economics; Greece; tourism; COVID-19

Online: 21 June 2020 (16:15:24 CEST)

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Preprint ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202006.0156.v1

How Rational Is the Greek Plan for Opening up Tourism?

Emmanuel Lazaridis, Estelle Clark

Subject: Business, Economics And Management, Econometrics And Statistics Keywords: Health economics; Greece; tourism; COVID-19

Online: 14 June 2020 (03:00:44 CEST)

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Preprint ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202005.0326.v3

COVID-19 Transmission Estimates and Forecasts: A Model to Test Sample Selection Bias in a ‘Low Risk’ Crisis

John Straka

Subject: Business, Economics And Management, Econometrics And Statistics Keywords: COVID-19; SARS-Cov-2; coronavirus; sample selection bias; bivariate probit; social distancing; public goods; macroeconomic

Online: 9 June 2020 (07:46:26 CEST)

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This paper surveys estimates of the transmission features of the novel coronavirus, and then proposes a model to address sample-selection bias in estimated determinants of infection. Containment assumptions of the infection forecasting models depend on assumed effects of policies and self-regulating behavior. In the commons dilemma of the pandemic, the perceived ‘low risks’ of unregulated marginal choices do not reflect the full social cost, implying non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPI) to reduce mortality can enhance social welfare. As more economic activity renews with liftings of restrictive NPI (RNPI), a critical question concerns the ability of milder NPI (MNPI) and voluntary precautions to mitigate the risk of greater infections and deaths while also limiting the pandemic’s economic damage and its social costs. Ineffective NPI could lead to continued COVID-19 waves and new types of crises, worsened expectations and delayed economic recoveries. From the central range of surveyed estimates of transmission and alternative herd-immunity-threshold estimates, a ‘worst-case’ virus guidepost suggests eventual deaths of around 25 to 41 million worldwide and 1.1 to 1.7 million in the U.S. needed to reach herd immunity with no vaccine or treatment. The most optimistic study surveyed (theoretical model from a non-reviewed preprint study) combined with the low end of the range of the estimated mortality rate suggests 6 to 9 million deaths worldwide and 250 to 370 thousand in the U.S. to reach herd immunity. Successes in the mix of NPI, treatments, and vaccine can limit the eventual global death toll of the virus. Improved estimation models for forecasting and decision making may assist in better targeting the local timings and mix of NPI. Diagnostic tests for the virus have been largely limited to symptomatic cases, causing possible sample selection bias. A recursive bivariate probit model of infection and testing is proposed along with several possible applications from cross-section or panel-data estimation. Multiple potential explanatory variables, data sources, and estimation needs are specified and discussed.

Preprint ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202005.0326.v2

Estimates of SARS-COV-2 Behavior in the COVID-19 Crisis: Addressing Sample-Selection Bias for Public Health Applications

John Straka

Subject: Business, Economics And Management, Econometrics And Statistics Keywords: COVID-19; SARS-Cov-2; coronavirus; sample selection bias; bivariate probit; social distancing; public goods; macroeconomic

Online: 21 May 2020 (10:10:20 CEST)

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This study surveys and assesses the implications from recent empirical studies and reports to highlight the characteristics of SARS-Cov-2 and the COVID-19 crisis, and then proposes a recursive bivariate probit (RBP) model specification and possible applications. The RBP model addresses sample selection bias to estimate key determinants of virus infection given nonrandom testing. Applicable to anonymized case-level or widely available local-area data in the U.S., multiple data sources are shown. With suitable data the model can control for observed (e.g. population density) and unobserved factors to estimate the marginal effects of varying state-prescribed measures and behavioral social distancing. Case-level scoring models may, in addition, eventually assist in clinical diagnostic assessments. Although not proposed to substitute for more random population testing and other methods, results could also be used in advance of more testing. Uncertain assumptions in epidemiological models reflect unclear effects from gradations of social distancing now occurring. Despite many calls for broader testing and targeted quarantining in the U.S., many practical obstacles remain, leaving unknowns, especially across local areas. Differing local transmission rates respond to stronger or weaker social distancing and quarantining. High risks from latent non-quarantining spread warn of potential overwhelming local outbreaks. The insidious nature of SARS-Cov-2 invites complacency, especially in non-hotspot areas. Complacent behaviors can fail to adequately address the public-goods problem, leading to various forms of continued local and macro COVID-19 waves and crises. To assess a worst-case scenario, no model projection is needed, only the herd immunity threshold equation, estimates of the reproduction ratio, and the estimated mortality rate. With no ultimately successful countermeasures in treatment, vaccine, and non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs), the analysis here suggests an eventual number of deaths much like the 1918 pandemic in U.S. deaths per capita (1.8-2.7 million U.S. deaths) and in the total number of deaths worldwide (around 50 million). This toll also reflects a hypothetical global “surrender” strategy of business-as-usual and no social distancing, which in practice no nation has followed. Some successes across the three broad social countermeasure efforts – which appears most likely, in a mix of outcomes – can lessen the high social costs.

Preprint ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202005.0326.v1

Estimates of SARS-COV-2 Behavior in the COVID-19 Crisis: Addressing Sample-Selection Bias for Public Health Applications

John Straka

Subject: Business, Economics And Management, Econometrics And Statistics Keywords: COVID-19; SARS-Cov-2; coronavirus; sample selection bias; bivariate probit; social distancing; public goods; macroeconomic

Online: 20 May 2020 (10:28:36 CEST)

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This study surveys and assesses the implications from recent empirical studies and reports to highlight the characteristics of SARS-Cov-2 and the COVID-19 crisis, and then proposes a recursive bivariate probit (RBP) model specification and possible applications. The RBP model addresses sample selection bias to estimate key determinants of virus infection given nonrandom testing. Applicable to anonymized case-level or widely available local-area data in the U.S., multiple data sources are shown. With suitable data the model can control for observed (e.g. population density) and unobserved factors to estimate the marginal effects of varying state-prescribed measures and behavioral social distancing. Case-level scoring models may, in addition, eventually assist in clinical diagnostic assessments. Although not proposed to substitute for more random population testing and other methods, results could also be used in advance of more testing. Uncertain assumptions in epidemiological models reflect unclear effects from gradations of social distancing now occurring. Despite many calls for broader testing and targeted quarantining in the U.S., many practical obstacles remain, leaving unknowns, especially across local areas. Differing local transmission rates respond to stronger or weaker social distancing and quarantining. High risks from latent non-quarantining spread warn of potential overwhelming local outbreaks. The insidious nature of SARS-Cov-2 invites complacency, especially in non-hotspot areas. Complacent behaviors can fail to adequately address the public-goods problem, leading to various forms of continued local and macro COVID-19 waves and crises. To assess a worst case scenario, no model projection is needed, only the herd immunity threshold equation, estimates of the reproduction ratio, and the estimated mortality rate. With no ultimately successful countermeasures in treatment, vaccine, and non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs), the analysis here suggests an eventual number of deaths much like the 1918 pandemic in U.S. deaths per capita (1.8-2.7 million U.S. deaths) and in the total number of deaths worldwide (around 50 million). This toll also reflects a hypothetical global “surrender” strategy of business-as-usual and no social distancing, which in practice no nation has followed. Some successes across the three broad social countermeasure efforts – which appears most likely, in a mix of outcomes – can lessen the high social costs.

Preprint ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202005.0218.v1

Price Discovery and Market Reflexivity in Agricultural Futures Contracts with Different Maturities

Steffen Volkenand, Günther Filler, Martin Odening

Subject: Business, Economics And Management, Econometrics And Statistics Keywords: agricultural commodity futures; price discovery; market reflexivity; Hawkes process

Online: 13 May 2020 (03:35:53 CEST)

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Preprint CONCEPT PAPER | doi:10.20944/preprints202005.0111.v1

Macroeconomic Outcomes of Remittances on the Indian Economy

Divya Narang

Subject: Business, Economics And Management, Econometrics And Statistics Keywords: migrant remittances; foreign capital; consumption; investment; economic growth

Online: 7 May 2020 (08:26:35 CEST)

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Preprint ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202004.0276.v1

Comparison of Correlation Measures for Nominal Data

Tanweer Islam, Mahvish Rizwan

Subject: Business, Economics And Management, Econometrics And Statistics Keywords: phi correlation; tetrachoric correlation; biserial correlation; point biserial correlation; correlation coefficient V; bias; size; power

Online: 16 April 2020 (13:30:08 CEST)

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Preprint ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201910.0320.v2

Feasibility of Innovative Tools and Methods to Improve Household Surveys in Complex Urban Settings: Multiple Methods Analysis of the Surveys for Urban Equity (SUE) Study in Kathmandu, Dhaka and Hanoi

Dana Thomson, Radheshyam Bhattarai, Sudeepa Khanal, Shraddha Manandhar, Rajeev Dhungel, Subash Gajurel, Joseph P Hicks, Duong Minh Duc, Junnatul Ferdoush, Tarana Ferdous, Nushrat Jahan Urmy, Riffat Ara Shawon, Khuong Quynh Long, Ak Narayan Poudel, Chris Cartwright, Hilary Wallace, Tim Ensor, Sushil Baral, Saidur Mashreky, Rumana Huque, Hoang Van Minh, Helen Elsey

Subject: Business, Economics And Management, Econometrics And Statistics Keywords: Nepal; Vietnam; Bangladesh; gridded population sampling; GridSample; OpenStreetMap; GeoODK; cross-sectional design; urban; household survey

Online: 10 April 2020 (07:39:01 CEST)

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Preprint ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202004.0163.v1

The Market Orientation of Smallholder South African Farmers in a Disaster Context: An Input-side Perspective within a Seed Systems Approach

Christopher Ugochukwu Nwafor

Subject: Business, Economics And Management, Econometrics And Statistics Keywords: agro-input; commercialization index; disaster; fertilizer; resilience; markets; production; seeds system

Online: 9 April 2020 (16:32:39 CEST)

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Preprint ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202003.0004.v1

A Study of Monetary Integration in West Africa and Its Implications on Trade in Africa

Rabnawaz Khan

Subject: Business, Economics And Management, Econometrics And Statistics Keywords: monetary; West African countries; trade; economy

Online: 1 March 2020 (03:04:45 CET)

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Preprint ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202003.0003.v1

Impact of Monetary Policies on Exchange Rate and Global Trade Evidence from Ghana

Rabnawaz Khan

Subject: Business, Economics And Management, Econometrics And Statistics Keywords: trade; conversion factors; price rate; economic growth

Online: 1 March 2020 (02:57:28 CET)

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Preprint ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202001.0162.v1

The Impact of Risk Factors Reduction Scenarios on Hospital Admissions, Disability-Adjusted Life Years and the Hospitalisation Cost of Cardiovascular Disease in Thailand

Khaled Khatab, Rungkren Inthavong, Malcolm Whitfield, Karen Collins, Mubarak Ismail, Maruf Raheem

Subject: Business, Economics And Management, Econometrics And Statistics Keywords: cardiovascular disease (CVD); Disability-Adjusted Life Years (DALYs); cost of admission; risk factors

Online: 16 January 2020 (09:05:32 CET)

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Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is considered to be one of the leading health issues in Thailand. CVD not only contributes to an increase in the number of hospital admissions year on year but also impacts on the rising health care expenditure for the treatment and long-term care of CVD patients. Therefore, this study is aimed at examining the impacts of risk reduction strategies on the number of CVD hospital admissions, Disability-Adjusted Life Years (DALYs) and the costs of hospitalisation. To estimate such impacts a CVD cost-offset model wasapplied using a Microsoft Excel spreadsheet. The number of the mid-year population was classified by age, gender and the CVD risk factor profiles from the recent Thai National Health Examination Survey (NHES) IV. This survey was chosen as the baseline population. The CVD risk factor profiles included age, gender, systolic blood pressure, total cholesterol, and smoking status. The Asia-Pacific Collaborative Cohort Study (APCCS) equation was applied to predict the probability of developing CVD over the next eight-year period. Estimates on the following were obtained from the model: (1.) the CVD events both fatal and non-fatal; (2.) the difference between the projected number of deaths and the actual number of deaths in that population; (3.) the number of patients who are expected to live with CVD; (4.) the DALYs from the estimated number of fatal and non-fatal events; (5.) the cost of hospital admissions. Four CVD risk strategy scenarios were investigated as follows: (1.) the do nothing scenario; (2.) the optimistic scenario; (3.) achieve the UN millennium development goal; and (4.) the worst-case scenario. The findings showed that over the next eight years there are likely to be 3,297,428 recorded cases of CVD; 5,870,049 cases of DALYs; and, approximately ฿57,000 million, ($1.9 billion), is projected as the total cost of hospital admissions. However, if the current health policy can reduce the levels of risk factors as defined in the optimistic scenario or such policy meets the specifications of the UN millennium development goal,there would be a significant reduction in the number of hospital admissions. These are estimated to be a reduction of 522,179 male and 515,416 female cases. With these results it is expected that health care costs would save approximately ฿9,000 million, ($298.3 million), for CVD and 900,000 million of DALYs over the next eight years. However, if there is an upward trend in the risk factors as predicted in the worst-case scenario, then there will be an increase of 428,220 CVD cases; consequently, DALYs cases may rise by 766,029 while the hospitalisation costs may increase by approximately ฿7,000 million, ($232.1 million). Based on our findings, reducing the levels of CVD risk factors in the population will drastically reduce: (1.) the number of CVD cases; (2.) DALYs cases; and (3.) health care costs. Therefore it is recommended that the health policy should enhance the primary prevention programs which would be targeted at reducing the CVD risk factors in the population.

Preprint COMMUNICATION | doi:10.20944/preprints201911.0302.v1

Elasticity Calculation in EKC Literature: A Cautionary Note

Jeyhun I Mikayilov, Fakhri J Hasanov

Subject: Business, Economics And Management, Econometrics And Statistics Keywords: Environmental Kuznets Curve; polynomial specification; elasticity formula; quadratic function; percentage change

Online: 25 November 2019 (02:57:12 CET)

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Business, Economics and Management