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Preprint ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202305.1743.v1

Pastoral Differentiations on WTA Valuation for Grassland Eco-Subsidy – Empirical Study of 410 Herder Households in Grass-Livestock Balance Sub-Policy Zones in Inner Mongolia, China

Jiayu Dong, Zimeng Ren, Xinling Zhang, Xiaoling Liu

Subject: Business, Economics And Management, Econometrics And Statistics Keywords: Willingness to accept compensation (WTA); expectation of compensation; horizontal/vertical differentiations of pastoral households

Online: 25 May 2023 (05:42:27 CEST)

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Preprint ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202305.1627.v1

Applying Logarithmic Transformation, Sine Wave and Amplitude: An Emerging Global Pattern of Economic Growth and Human Development

Demetria May Saniel

Subject: Business, Economics And Management, Econometrics And Statistics Keywords: Human Development Index; Education Index; Health Index; Standard of Living Index; Gross Domestic Product; Complex Adaptive Systems; Logarithmic Transformation; Sine Wave; Amplitude

Online: 23 May 2023 (08:40:39 CEST)

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Preprint HYPOTHESIS | doi:10.20944/preprints202305.1281.v1

A Quantitative Study on the Effectiveness of the Governance Attributes on ‘Industry-Wise Earnings Quality’ in the UK

Rishiram Aryal, Washad Emambocus, Gurjit Dhesi, Ebikinei Stanley Eguruze

Subject: Business, Economics And Management, Econometrics And Statistics Keywords: Corporate Governance; Earnings Management; Industry-wise

Online: 18 May 2023 (05:50:50 CEST)

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Preprint ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202304.0369.v1

Study on Pricing of High Dimensional Financial Derivatives Based on Deep Learning

Xiangdong Liu, Yu Gu

Subject: Business, Economics And Management, Econometrics And Statistics Keywords: Deep learning; Backward stochastic differential equation; Nonlinear Feynman-Kac formula; High dimensional PDE; Derivatives pricing; Neural network

Online: 14 April 2023 (10:44:44 CEST)

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Preprint ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202303.0115.v1

Endogenous Innovation and Export Performance in Firms

Oliviero Antonio Carboni, Giuseppe Medda

Subject: Business, Economics And Management, Econometrics And Statistics Keywords: European firms; R& D; innovation; export; IV and fractional response model

Online: 7 March 2023 (01:32:45 CET)

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Preprint ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202301.0248.v1

Making Impact on Common Financial Factors Affecting Liquidity Ratio Based on Greedy Approach through Price Movement in Stock Market

Prakash P, Krishnaprabha S, Sundararajan S

Subject: Business, Economics And Management, Econometrics And Statistics Keywords: Liquidity Risks; Financial Liquidity Factors; Liquidity Crisis; Stock Market; Market Transparency; Greedy Approach

Online: 13 January 2023 (09:30:56 CET)

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Preprint ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202301.0060.v1

The Environmental Kuznets Curve hypothesis for Colombia: impact of economic development on greenhouse gas emissions and ecological footprint

Jorge A Acevedo, Carlos Felipe Valencia, Carlos Darío Valencia

Subject: Business, Economics And Management, Econometrics And Statistics Keywords: carbon dioxide emissions; Ecological footprint; Economic growth; EKC hypothesis; Environmental degradation; ARDL; Methane emissions

Online: 4 January 2023 (03:44:17 CET)

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Preprint ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202211.0216.v1

A Study on the Bilateral Trade Relations between China and ASEAN Ten Countries Based on Lotka-Volterra Model

Wen-Xi Ruan, Xin Yu, Sheng-Yuan Wang, Tian-Cheng Zhao, Ya-Zhen Liu

Subject: Business, Economics And Management, Econometrics And Statistics Keywords: Ten ASEAN countries; Bilateral trade; Lotka-Volterra model; commensalism; competition

Online: 11 November 2022 (04:05:04 CET)

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Preprint ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202210.0201.v1

Evaluating Portuguese Public Hospitals Performance: Any Difference Before and During COVID-19?

Alexandre Morais Nunes, Diogo Filipe da Cunha Ferreira

Subject: Business, Economics And Management, Econometrics And Statistics Keywords: Public hospitals; Performance; Efficiency; Quality; COVID19; Network-based Data Envelopment Analysis

Online: 14 October 2022 (03:37:41 CEST)

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Preprint ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202209.0446.v1

Associations and Statistical Inferences to the Productive Environment of the Oil Market: Analysis of the World’s Largest Producers from 1993 to 2020

Rafael Henrique Mainardes Ferreira, Priscila Rubbo, Claudia Tania Picinin

Subject: Business, Economics And Management, Econometrics And Statistics Keywords: petroleum; oil market; oil; statistics

Online: 28 September 2022 (15:35:31 CEST)

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Preprint ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202209.0130.v1

Sociodemographic and Economic Profile of Bicycle-Taxi Riders and Revenue Modelling in Quelimane, Mozambique

Arlete Freitas Jone, Solomon Runhungwe, Joao Luis Ferrao

Subject: Business, Economics And Management, Econometrics And Statistics Keywords: bicycle taxi; profile; sociodemographic

Online: 9 September 2022 (07:03:52 CEST)

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Preprint ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202208.0456.v1

The Impact of Rural Land Right on Farmers' Income in Underdeveloped Areas: Evidence from Micro-survey Data in Yunnan Province, China

Deng Xiang, Zhang Min, Wan Chunlin

Subject: Business, Economics And Management, Econometrics And Statistics Keywords: Rural land right; farmers’ income; farm income; non-farm income; land transfer

Online: 26 August 2022 (09:44:58 CEST)

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Preprint ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202208.0397.v1

Saving Food from Waste or Advance Selling? An Empirical Analysis of Too Good To Go Offering in Rome

Mengting Yu, Luigi Palumbo, Luca Secondi

Subject: Business, Economics And Management, Econometrics And Statistics Keywords: food waste; web scraping; Too Good To Go; empirical analysis

Online: 23 August 2022 (08:53:11 CEST)

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Preprint ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202207.0274.v2

The Temporal and Spatial Evolution of Digital Inclusive Finance and Its Boosting Effect on Rural Revitalization in China

Jin Qiu, Wenxing Chen, Renjie Tao, Chengwei Wang

Subject: Business, Economics And Management, Econometrics And Statistics Keywords: digital inclusive finance; rural revitalization; spatio-temporal evolution; Gini coefficient; GWR model

Online: 19 July 2022 (04:12:41 CEST)

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Using the 2011-2020 digital inclusive finance data released by Peking University and the index system constructed by the Blue Book of China Rural Revitalization and Development Index (2018), this paper analyzes the dynamic evolution of the digital inclusive finance and the rural revitaliza-tion from time and space dimensions with the help of kernel density estimation, Markov chain and Moran index. Using The Gini coefficient decomposition method to analyze the source of differ-ences in digital inclusive finance, and then using the spatial autoregressive (SAR) model and ge-ographically weighted regression (GWR) model to study the boosting effect of digital inclusive finance on rural revitalization from the perspective of spatial aggregation and spatial differentia-tion, respectively. The results show that: (1) The growth rate of China's digital inclusive finance slows down year by year, and the inter-provincial differences increase year by year and show gradient characteristics, indicating that there may be a trend of multipolar differentiation. The overall level of Rural Revitalization shows an increasing trend, and the gap between provinces is still apparent. (2) The evolution of digital inclusive finance and rural revitalization is a slow ad-justment process, and there has been no cross-level jump in the past ten years. In digital inclusive finance, the liquidity from the highest and lowest levels to the medium level is high. However, the liquidity in the states of rural revitalization development level is not high. (3) Rural revitalization has a positive spatial spillover effect. The level of rural revitalization in the western area is signif-icantly lower than in the eastern area. At the same time, there is no significant difference between the east and central areas. The depth of the use of digital inclusive finance has a significant positive impact on the revitalization and development of rural areas, indicating that the further promotion of digital inclusive finance business in rural areas can substantially boost the revitalization of rural areas. (4) The boosting effect of digital inclusive finance on rural revitalization shows prominent spatial differentiation characteristics. The depth of use and the degree of digitization generally show a positive impact. The central and eastern coastal cities have the highest impact, decreasing toward the southwest and northeast. The areas with the lowest usage depth impact are clustered in the northeast, and the areas with the lowest digitization impact are clustered in the southwest.

Preprint ESSAY | doi:10.20944/preprints202207.0274.v1

The Temporal and Spatial Evolution of Digital Inclusive Finance and Its Boosting Effect on Rural Revitalization in China

Jin Qiu, Wenxing Chen, Renjie Tao, Chengwei Wang

Subject: Business, Economics And Management, Econometrics And Statistics Keywords: digital inclusive finance; rural revitalization; spatio-temporal evolution; Gini coefficient; GWR model

Online: 19 July 2022 (02:52:04 CEST)

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Using the 2011-2020 digital inclusive finance data released by Peking University and the index system constructed by the Blue Book of China Rural Revitalization and Development Index (2018), this paper analyzes the dynamic evolution of the digital inclusive finance and the rural revitaliza-tion from time and space dimensions with the help of kernel density estimation, Markov chain and Moran index. Using The Gini coefficient decomposition method to analyze the source of differ-ences in digital inclusive finance, and then using the spatial autoregressive (SAR) model and ge-ographically weighted regression (GWR) model to study the boosting effect of digital inclusive finance on rural revitalization from the perspective of spatial aggregation and spatial differentia-tion, respectively. The results show that: (1) The growth rate of China's digital inclusive finance slows down year by year, and the inter-provincial differences increase year by year and show gradient characteristics, indicating that there may be a trend of multipolar differentiation. The overall level of Rural Revitalization shows an increasing trend, and the gap between provinces is still apparent. (2) The evolution of digital inclusive finance and rural revitalization is a slow ad-justment process, and there has been no cross-level jump in the past ten years. In digital inclusive finance, the liquidity from the highest and lowest levels to the medium level is high. However, the liquidity in the states of rural revitalization development level is not high. (3) Rural revitalization has a positive spatial spillover effect. The level of rural revitalization in the western area is signif-icantly lower than in the eastern area. At the same time, there is no significant difference between the east and central areas. The depth of the use of digital inclusive finance has a significant positive impact on the revitalization and development of rural areas, indicating that the further promotion of digital inclusive finance business in rural areas can substantially boost the revitalization of rural areas. (4) The boosting effect of digital inclusive finance on rural revitalization shows prominent spatial differentiation characteristics. The depth of use and the degree of digitization generally show a positive impact. The central and eastern coastal cities have the highest impact, decreasing toward the southwest and northeast. The areas with the lowest usage depth impact are clustered in the northeast, and the areas with the lowest digitization impact are clustered in the southwest.

Preprint ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202203.0281.v1

Impact of COVID-19 on Local Markets: An Application of Garch and Markov-Switching Dynamic Regression

Olawale Abimbola, Chukwudi Ogbekile, Ehizokhale Oseghale

Subject: Business, Economics And Management, Econometrics And Statistics Keywords: COVID-19; GARCH; ARCH; MSDR; Volatility

Online: 21 March 2022 (09:14:26 CET)

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Preprint ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202201.0317.v1

Prevalence and Economic Costs of Absenteeism in an Aging Population – A Quasi-Stochastic Projection for Germany

Patrizio Vanella, Christina Benita Wilke, Doris Söhnlein

Subject: Business, Economics And Management, Econometrics And Statistics Keywords: Cohort-Component Method; Multivariate Methods; Time Series Analysis; Monte Carlo Methods; Stochastic Forecasting; Demography; Statistical Epidemiology; Labor Market Research; Health Economics

Online: 21 January 2022 (10:32:54 CET)

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Preprint ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202201.0311.v1

The Replicability Crisis and the p-Value Debate – what Are the Consequences for the Agricultural and Food Economics Community?

Thomas Heckelei, Silke Hüttel, Martin Odening, Jens Rommel

Subject: Business, Economics And Management, Econometrics And Statistics Keywords: Statistical inference; p-hacking; pre-registration; publication bias; replication crisis

Online: 20 January 2022 (15:32:13 CET)

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Preprint ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202201.0126.v1

Tiebout Sorting, Zoning, and Property Tax Rates

Steven C. Bourassa, Wen-Chieh Wu

Subject: Business, Economics And Management, Econometrics And Statistics Keywords: Tiebout model; fiscal zoning; single-family zoning; property taxation; Miami

Online: 10 January 2022 (15:21:18 CET)

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Preprint ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202112.0022.v2

Equal Opportunities to Access the University in Chile? An Application with a Spatial Heckman Probit Model

Juan Luis Quiroz, Ludo Peeters, Coro Chasco, Patricio Aroca

Subject: Business, Economics And Management, Econometrics And Statistics Keywords: Heckit models; spatial effects; local spatial autocorrelation; SLX model; education accessibility; Chile

Online: 20 December 2021 (10:47:44 CET)

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Preprint ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202112.0022.v1

Equal Opportunities to Access the University in Chile? An Application with a Spatial Heckman Probit Model

Juan Luis Quiroz, Ludo Peeters, Coro Chasco, Patricio Aroca

Subject: Business, Economics And Management, Econometrics And Statistics Keywords: Heckit models; spatial effects; local spatial autocorrelation; SLX model; education accessibility; Chile

Online: 2 December 2021 (08:08:42 CET)

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Preprint ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202111.0462.v1

Dynamic Programming for Computing Power Indices for Weighted Voting Games with Precoalitions

Jochen Staudacher, Felix Wagner, Jan Filipp

Subject: Business, Economics And Management, Econometrics And Statistics Keywords: cooperative game theory; power indices; weighted voting games; dynamic programming; precoalitions; Shapley value; Owen value; Banzhaf index.

Online: 25 November 2021 (08:15:34 CET)

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Preprint ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202111.0382.v1

Food-Away-from-Home Expenditure in Mexico during the COVID-19 Pandemic: A Micro-Econometric Analysis

Antonio Aguilar-Lopez, Aleš Kuhar

Subject: Business, Economics And Management, Econometrics And Statistics Keywords: elasticity; Engel curve; food-away-from-home expenditure, COVID, Mexico

Online: 22 November 2021 (11:11:14 CET)

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Preprint ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202110.0271.v1

Smart Regions in the Italian Context. From a Theoretical to an Empirical Framework

Daniela Cialfi

Subject: Business, Economics And Management, Econometrics And Statistics Keywords: smart regions; social capital; ICT; neural network; regional performance; Italy

Online: 19 October 2021 (11:46:03 CEST)

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Preprint CASE REPORT | doi:10.20944/preprints202110.0006.v1

Can System Logs Enhance the Performance of Credit Scoring? – Evidence from an Internet Bank in Korea

Sunghyun Kyeong, Daehee Kim, Jinho Shin

Subject: Business, Economics And Management, Econometrics And Statistics Keywords: Credit scoring; Credit risk model; Big data; Digital footprints

Online: 1 October 2021 (11:32:58 CEST)

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Working Paper ARTICLE

The Analysis and the Measurement of Poverty: An Interval Based Composite Indicator Approach

Carlo Drago

Subject: Business, Economics And Management, Econometrics And Statistics Keywords: poverty; composite indicators; interval data; symbolic data

Online: 24 August 2021 (15:46:09 CEST)

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Preprint ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202108.0414.v1

The Systematic Risk at the Crisis - A Multifractal Non-uniform Wavelet Systematic Risk Estimation

Mounir Sarraj, ANOUAR BEN MABROUK

Subject: Business, Economics And Management, Econometrics And Statistics Keywords: avelets; Non-uniform wavelets; CAPM; Wavelets CAPM; systematic (market) risk; scaling; Arab spring revolutions.

Online: 20 August 2021 (12:43:26 CEST)

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Preprint ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202107.0424.v2

Can Digital Inclusive Finance Impact on the Rural Income? An Empirical Study in Henan Province, China

Xiuhui Li, Zihan Zhang, Fan Yang

Subject: Business, Economics And Management, Econometrics And Statistics Keywords: digital inclusive finance; rural income; Henan Province, China; empirical analysis; countermeasures and suggestions

Online: 29 July 2021 (11:16:10 CEST)

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Preprint ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202107.0032.v1

Nestedness-Based Measurement of Evolutionarily Stable Equilibrium of Global Production System

Jiaqi Ren, Yu Han, Lizhi Xing, Xianlei Dong

Subject: Business, Economics And Management, Econometrics And Statistics Keywords: global value chain; global economic integration; nestedness; evolutionarily stable equilibrium

Online: 1 July 2021 (14:20:58 CEST)

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Working Paper ARTICLE

Estimation of the Efficiency of the Investment Fund

Eduard Dadyan

Subject: Business, Economics And Management, Econometrics And Statistics Keywords: Efficiency of mutual funds, a deep crisis in the economy, efficiency forecast, model formation, financial investments, estimated income, mutual funds, CAPM, neural networks

Online: 31 March 2021 (22:04:28 CEST)

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Preprint ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202012.0599.v2

The COVID-19 Pandemic: Socioeconomic and Health Disparities

Behzad Javaheri

Subject: Business, Economics And Management, Econometrics And Statistics Keywords: COVID-19; mortality; socioeconomic disparity; disadvantaged groups

Online: 15 January 2021 (12:09:12 CET)

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Preprint ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202012.0695.v1

The Analysis and the Measurement of Poverty: An Interval Based Composite Indicator Approach

Carlo Drago

Subject: Business, Economics And Management, Econometrics And Statistics Keywords: poverty; composite indicators; interval data; symbolic data

Online: 28 December 2020 (12:13:39 CET)

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Preprint ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202012.0599.v1

The COVID-19 Pandemic: Socioeconomic and Health Disparities

Behzad Javaheri

Subject: Business, Economics And Management, Econometrics And Statistics Keywords: COVID-19; mortality; socioeconomic disparity; disadvantaged groups

Online: 23 December 2020 (16:29:18 CET)

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Working Paper ARTICLE

Elementary Principles in Statistical Economics

Cal Abel

Subject: Business, Economics And Management, Econometrics And Statistics Keywords: statistical mechanics; information theory; game theory; subjective utility; entropy; income inequality; distributive justice; monetary policy

Online: 12 October 2020 (12:21:04 CEST)

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Working Paper ARTICLE

Addressing Unintentional Exclusion of Vulnerable and Mobile Households in Traditional Surveys in Kathmandu, Dhaka and Hanoi: A Mixed Methods Feasibility Study

Dana Thomson, Radheshyam Bhattarai, Sudeepa Khanal, Shraddha Manandhar, Rajeev Dhungel, Subash Gajurel, Joseph P Hicks, Duong Minh Duc, Junnatul Ferdoush, Tarana Ferdous, Nushrat Jahan Urmy, Riffat Ara Shawon, Khuong Quynh Long, Ak Narayan Poudel, Chris Cartwright, Hilary Wallace, Tim Ensor, Sushil Baral, Saidur Mashreky, Rumana Huque, Hoang Van Minh, Helen Elsey

Subject: Business, Economics And Management, Econometrics And Statistics Keywords: Nepal; Vietnam; Bangladesh; gridded population sampling; GridSample; OpenStreetMap; GeoODK; cross-sectional design; urban; household survey

Online: 24 August 2020 (09:51:16 CEST)

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Preprint ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202008.0101.v1

Differences between Women and Men Regarding the Security Measures Required of the Hotel Sector to Deal with COVID-19

Alexandra Lenis Escobar, Ramón Rueda López, Antonio Menor Campos, Teresa López-Felipe

Subject: Business, Economics And Management, Econometrics And Statistics Keywords: Covid-19; tourism; security measures; sex differences; ANOVA

Online: 4 August 2020 (16:05:20 CEST)

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Preprint ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202007.0638.v1

Regionally Divergent Patterns in Factors Affecting Municipal Waste Production: The Polish Perspective

Elżbieta Antczak

Subject: Business, Economics And Management, Econometrics And Statistics Keywords: municipal waste in Poland; geographically weighted regression with spatial error term; analysis of regionally divergent determinants; spatial processes; communes; sustainable development

Online: 26 July 2020 (15:40:19 CEST)

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Preprint ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202007.0248.v1

Long-Lasting Economic Effects of Pandemics: Evidence on Growth and Unemployment

C. Vladimir Rodríguez-Caballero, J. Eduardo Vera-Valdés

Subject: Business, Economics And Management, Econometrics And Statistics Keywords: long memory; persistence; structural change; pandemics; growth; and unemployment

Online: 12 July 2020 (08:26:52 CEST)

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Preprint ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202007.0167.v1

Renewable Energy Green Innovation, Fossil Energy Consumption and Air Pollution--- Spatial Empirical Analysis Based on China

Neng Shen, Hui Peng, Yifan Wang

Subject: Business, Economics And Management, Econometrics And Statistics Keywords: renewable energy; energy consumption; air pollution; spatial dubin model; spatial analysis

Online: 9 July 2020 (06:00:31 CEST)

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Preprint ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202007.0008.v1

Youth Access to ICT Resources and Subjective Well-being in the Middle East: A Spatial Bivariate Copula Regression Analysis

Ibrahim Niankara, Ghaleb A. El-Refae, Amer Qasim

Subject: Business, Economics And Management, Econometrics And Statistics Keywords: Copula Regression; ICT resources; Middle East; Spatial Analysis; Students Well-being; Sustainable Development Goals

Online: 2 July 2020 (13:18:03 CEST)

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Target 9.c of the 2015 United Nations (UN) sustainable development goals (SDGs) specifically addresses increasing access to information and communication technology (ICT) resources, and striving for universal access to the internet by 2020. The present study seeks to evaluate the effectiveness of the youth related national strategies implemented in this regard by a select number of countries in the Middle East region. The study does so, by relying on a spatial bivariate copula regression analysis of data on youth respondents from five countries, extracted from the 2018 Program for international students’ assessment (PISA). Focusing specifically on evaluating the availability of ICT resources to the youth population, and also identifying the impact of ICT resources on youth subjective well-being in the region, we find that except for the UAE and Qatar that have above OECD average youth performance on the ICT resource index, youth from the remaining countries reported below OECD level average access to ICT resources. The within region cross-country comparative analysis of ICT resources availability to the youth population at home, also highlighted significant heterogeneity across the five countries, post 2015 SDG adoption by UN country members. Furthermore, looking at the impact of ICT resources on youth well-being, controlling for not only cross-country spatial correlations, and factors such as home educational resources, cultural possessions at home, parental occupation status, youth expected occupation status, economic and socio-cultural status, age, gender, and grade level in school; we found that every standard deviation increase in ICT resources to the youth population in the region raises their self-expressed sense of belonging in school by 1.88% standard deviations. Given the empowering nature of ICT resources to youth, and the potential of both to support national as well as regional economic development initiatives, a concerted effort to ease ICT resources diffusion by member countries in the middle east region could assist not only each country in its own development path, but also the region as a whole to live up to its growth potential by the 2030.

Preprint ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202006.0156.v2

How Rational Is the Greek Plan for Opening up Tourism?

Emmanuel Lazaridis, Estelle Clark

Subject: Business, Economics And Management, Econometrics And Statistics Keywords: Health economics; Greece; tourism; COVID-19

Online: 21 June 2020 (16:15:24 CEST)

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Preprint ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202006.0156.v1

How Rational Is the Greek Plan for Opening up Tourism?

Emmanuel Lazaridis, Estelle Clark

Subject: Business, Economics And Management, Econometrics And Statistics Keywords: Health economics; Greece; tourism; COVID-19

Online: 14 June 2020 (03:00:44 CEST)

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Preprint ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202005.0326.v3

COVID-19 Transmission Estimates and Forecasts: A Model to Test Sample Selection Bias in a ‘Low Risk’ Crisis

John Straka

Subject: Business, Economics And Management, Econometrics And Statistics Keywords: COVID-19; SARS-Cov-2; coronavirus; sample selection bias; bivariate probit; social distancing; public goods; macroeconomic

Online: 9 June 2020 (07:46:26 CEST)

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This paper surveys estimates of the transmission features of the novel coronavirus, and then proposes a model to address sample-selection bias in estimated determinants of infection. Containment assumptions of the infection forecasting models depend on assumed effects of policies and self-regulating behavior. In the commons dilemma of the pandemic, the perceived ‘low risks’ of unregulated marginal choices do not reflect the full social cost, implying non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPI) to reduce mortality can enhance social welfare. As more economic activity renews with liftings of restrictive NPI (RNPI), a critical question concerns the ability of milder NPI (MNPI) and voluntary precautions to mitigate the risk of greater infections and deaths while also limiting the pandemic’s economic damage and its social costs. Ineffective NPI could lead to continued COVID-19 waves and new types of crises, worsened expectations and delayed economic recoveries. From the central range of surveyed estimates of transmission and alternative herd-immunity-threshold estimates, a ‘worst-case’ virus guidepost suggests eventual deaths of around 25 to 41 million worldwide and 1.1 to 1.7 million in the U.S. needed to reach herd immunity with no vaccine or treatment. The most optimistic study surveyed (theoretical model from a non-reviewed preprint study) combined with the low end of the range of the estimated mortality rate suggests 6 to 9 million deaths worldwide and 250 to 370 thousand in the U.S. to reach herd immunity. Successes in the mix of NPI, treatments, and vaccine can limit the eventual global death toll of the virus. Improved estimation models for forecasting and decision making may assist in better targeting the local timings and mix of NPI. Diagnostic tests for the virus have been largely limited to symptomatic cases, causing possible sample selection bias. A recursive bivariate probit model of infection and testing is proposed along with several possible applications from cross-section or panel-data estimation. Multiple potential explanatory variables, data sources, and estimation needs are specified and discussed.

Preprint ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202005.0326.v2

Estimates of SARS-COV-2 Behavior in the COVID-19 Crisis: Addressing Sample-Selection Bias for Public Health Applications

John Straka

Subject: Business, Economics And Management, Econometrics And Statistics Keywords: COVID-19; SARS-Cov-2; coronavirus; sample selection bias; bivariate probit; social distancing; public goods; macroeconomic

Online: 21 May 2020 (10:10:20 CEST)

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This study surveys and assesses the implications from recent empirical studies and reports to highlight the characteristics of SARS-Cov-2 and the COVID-19 crisis, and then proposes a recursive bivariate probit (RBP) model specification and possible applications. The RBP model addresses sample selection bias to estimate key determinants of virus infection given nonrandom testing. Applicable to anonymized case-level or widely available local-area data in the U.S., multiple data sources are shown. With suitable data the model can control for observed (e.g. population density) and unobserved factors to estimate the marginal effects of varying state-prescribed measures and behavioral social distancing. Case-level scoring models may, in addition, eventually assist in clinical diagnostic assessments. Although not proposed to substitute for more random population testing and other methods, results could also be used in advance of more testing. Uncertain assumptions in epidemiological models reflect unclear effects from gradations of social distancing now occurring. Despite many calls for broader testing and targeted quarantining in the U.S., many practical obstacles remain, leaving unknowns, especially across local areas. Differing local transmission rates respond to stronger or weaker social distancing and quarantining. High risks from latent non-quarantining spread warn of potential overwhelming local outbreaks. The insidious nature of SARS-Cov-2 invites complacency, especially in non-hotspot areas. Complacent behaviors can fail to adequately address the public-goods problem, leading to various forms of continued local and macro COVID-19 waves and crises. To assess a worst-case scenario, no model projection is needed, only the herd immunity threshold equation, estimates of the reproduction ratio, and the estimated mortality rate. With no ultimately successful countermeasures in treatment, vaccine, and non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs), the analysis here suggests an eventual number of deaths much like the 1918 pandemic in U.S. deaths per capita (1.8-2.7 million U.S. deaths) and in the total number of deaths worldwide (around 50 million). This toll also reflects a hypothetical global “surrender” strategy of business-as-usual and no social distancing, which in practice no nation has followed. Some successes across the three broad social countermeasure efforts – which appears most likely, in a mix of outcomes – can lessen the high social costs.

Preprint ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202005.0326.v1

Estimates of SARS-COV-2 Behavior in the COVID-19 Crisis: Addressing Sample-Selection Bias for Public Health Applications

John Straka

Subject: Business, Economics And Management, Econometrics And Statistics Keywords: COVID-19; SARS-Cov-2; coronavirus; sample selection bias; bivariate probit; social distancing; public goods; macroeconomic

Online: 20 May 2020 (10:28:36 CEST)

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This study surveys and assesses the implications from recent empirical studies and reports to highlight the characteristics of SARS-Cov-2 and the COVID-19 crisis, and then proposes a recursive bivariate probit (RBP) model specification and possible applications. The RBP model addresses sample selection bias to estimate key determinants of virus infection given nonrandom testing. Applicable to anonymized case-level or widely available local-area data in the U.S., multiple data sources are shown. With suitable data the model can control for observed (e.g. population density) and unobserved factors to estimate the marginal effects of varying state-prescribed measures and behavioral social distancing. Case-level scoring models may, in addition, eventually assist in clinical diagnostic assessments. Although not proposed to substitute for more random population testing and other methods, results could also be used in advance of more testing. Uncertain assumptions in epidemiological models reflect unclear effects from gradations of social distancing now occurring. Despite many calls for broader testing and targeted quarantining in the U.S., many practical obstacles remain, leaving unknowns, especially across local areas. Differing local transmission rates respond to stronger or weaker social distancing and quarantining. High risks from latent non-quarantining spread warn of potential overwhelming local outbreaks. The insidious nature of SARS-Cov-2 invites complacency, especially in non-hotspot areas. Complacent behaviors can fail to adequately address the public-goods problem, leading to various forms of continued local and macro COVID-19 waves and crises. To assess a worst case scenario, no model projection is needed, only the herd immunity threshold equation, estimates of the reproduction ratio, and the estimated mortality rate. With no ultimately successful countermeasures in treatment, vaccine, and non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs), the analysis here suggests an eventual number of deaths much like the 1918 pandemic in U.S. deaths per capita (1.8-2.7 million U.S. deaths) and in the total number of deaths worldwide (around 50 million). This toll also reflects a hypothetical global “surrender” strategy of business-as-usual and no social distancing, which in practice no nation has followed. Some successes across the three broad social countermeasure efforts – which appears most likely, in a mix of outcomes – can lessen the high social costs.

Preprint ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202005.0218.v1

Price Discovery and Market Reflexivity in Agricultural Futures Contracts with Different Maturities

Steffen Volkenand, Günther Filler, Martin Odening

Subject: Business, Economics And Management, Econometrics And Statistics Keywords: agricultural commodity futures; price discovery; market reflexivity; Hawkes process

Online: 13 May 2020 (03:35:53 CEST)

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Preprint CONCEPT PAPER | doi:10.20944/preprints202005.0111.v1

Macroeconomic Outcomes of Remittances on the Indian Economy

Divya Narang

Subject: Business, Economics And Management, Econometrics And Statistics Keywords: migrant remittances; foreign capital; consumption; investment; economic growth

Online: 7 May 2020 (08:26:35 CEST)

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Preprint ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202004.0276.v1

Comparison of Correlation Measures for Nominal Data

Tanweer Islam, Mahvish Rizwan

Subject: Business, Economics And Management, Econometrics And Statistics Keywords: phi correlation; tetrachoric correlation; biserial correlation; point biserial correlation; correlation coefficient V; bias; size; power

Online: 16 April 2020 (13:30:08 CEST)

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Preprint ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201910.0320.v2

Feasibility of Innovative Tools and Methods to Improve Household Surveys in Complex Urban Settings: Multiple Methods Analysis of the Surveys for Urban Equity (SUE) Study in Kathmandu, Dhaka and Hanoi

Dana Thomson, Radheshyam Bhattarai, Sudeepa Khanal, Shraddha Manandhar, Rajeev Dhungel, Subash Gajurel, Joseph P Hicks, Duong Minh Duc, Junnatul Ferdoush, Tarana Ferdous, Nushrat Jahan Urmy, Riffat Ara Shawon, Khuong Quynh Long, Ak Narayan Poudel, Chris Cartwright, Hilary Wallace, Tim Ensor, Sushil Baral, Saidur Mashreky, Rumana Huque, Hoang Van Minh, Helen Elsey

Subject: Business, Economics And Management, Econometrics And Statistics Keywords: Nepal; Vietnam; Bangladesh; gridded population sampling; GridSample; OpenStreetMap; GeoODK; cross-sectional design; urban; household survey

Online: 10 April 2020 (07:39:01 CEST)

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Preprint ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202004.0163.v1

The Market Orientation of Smallholder South African Farmers in a Disaster Context: An Input-side Perspective within a Seed Systems Approach

Christopher Ugochukwu Nwafor

Subject: Business, Economics And Management, Econometrics And Statistics Keywords: agro-input; commercialization index; disaster; fertilizer; resilience; markets; production; seeds system

Online: 9 April 2020 (16:32:39 CEST)

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Preprint ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202003.0004.v1

A Study of Monetary Integration in West Africa and Its Implications on Trade in Africa

Rabnawaz Khan

Subject: Business, Economics And Management, Econometrics And Statistics Keywords: monetary; West African countries; trade; economy

Online: 1 March 2020 (03:04:45 CET)

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Preprint ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202003.0003.v1

Impact of Monetary Policies on Exchange Rate and Global Trade Evidence from Ghana

Rabnawaz Khan

Subject: Business, Economics And Management, Econometrics And Statistics Keywords: trade; conversion factors; price rate; economic growth

Online: 1 March 2020 (02:57:28 CET)

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Preprint ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202001.0162.v1

The Impact of Risk Factors Reduction Scenarios on Hospital Admissions, Disability-Adjusted Life Years and the Hospitalisation Cost of Cardiovascular Disease in Thailand

Khaled Khatab, Rungkren Inthavong, Malcolm Whitfield, Karen Collins, Mubarak Ismail, Maruf Raheem

Subject: Business, Economics And Management, Econometrics And Statistics Keywords: cardiovascular disease (CVD); Disability-Adjusted Life Years (DALYs); cost of admission; risk factors

Online: 16 January 2020 (09:05:32 CET)

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Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is considered to be one of the leading health issues in Thailand. CVD not only contributes to an increase in the number of hospital admissions year on year but also impacts on the rising health care expenditure for the treatment and long-term care of CVD patients. Therefore, this study is aimed at examining the impacts of risk reduction strategies on the number of CVD hospital admissions, Disability-Adjusted Life Years (DALYs) and the costs of hospitalisation. To estimate such impacts a CVD cost-offset model wasapplied using a Microsoft Excel spreadsheet. The number of the mid-year population was classified by age, gender and the CVD risk factor profiles from the recent Thai National Health Examination Survey (NHES) IV. This survey was chosen as the baseline population. The CVD risk factor profiles included age, gender, systolic blood pressure, total cholesterol, and smoking status. The Asia-Pacific Collaborative Cohort Study (APCCS) equation was applied to predict the probability of developing CVD over the next eight-year period. Estimates on the following were obtained from the model: (1.) the CVD events both fatal and non-fatal; (2.) the difference between the projected number of deaths and the actual number of deaths in that population; (3.) the number of patients who are expected to live with CVD; (4.) the DALYs from the estimated number of fatal and non-fatal events; (5.) the cost of hospital admissions. Four CVD risk strategy scenarios were investigated as follows: (1.) the do nothing scenario; (2.) the optimistic scenario; (3.) achieve the UN millennium development goal; and (4.) the worst-case scenario. The findings showed that over the next eight years there are likely to be 3,297,428 recorded cases of CVD; 5,870,049 cases of DALYs; and, approximately ฿57,000 million, ($1.9 billion), is projected as the total cost of hospital admissions. However, if the current health policy can reduce the levels of risk factors as defined in the optimistic scenario or such policy meets the specifications of the UN millennium development goal,there would be a significant reduction in the number of hospital admissions. These are estimated to be a reduction of 522,179 male and 515,416 female cases. With these results it is expected that health care costs would save approximately ฿9,000 million, ($298.3 million), for CVD and 900,000 million of DALYs over the next eight years. However, if there is an upward trend in the risk factors as predicted in the worst-case scenario, then there will be an increase of 428,220 CVD cases; consequently, DALYs cases may rise by 766,029 while the hospitalisation costs may increase by approximately ฿7,000 million, ($232.1 million). Based on our findings, reducing the levels of CVD risk factors in the population will drastically reduce: (1.) the number of CVD cases; (2.) DALYs cases; and (3.) health care costs. Therefore it is recommended that the health policy should enhance the primary prevention programs which would be targeted at reducing the CVD risk factors in the population.

Preprint COMMUNICATION | doi:10.20944/preprints201911.0302.v1

Elasticity Calculation in EKC Literature: A Cautionary Note

Jeyhun I Mikayilov, Fakhri J Hasanov

Subject: Business, Economics And Management, Econometrics And Statistics Keywords: Environmental Kuznets Curve; polynomial specification; elasticity formula; quadratic function; percentage change

Online: 25 November 2019 (02:57:12 CET)

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Preprint ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201911.0119.v1

Statistical Analysis and Forecasting of Price and Mileage Correlation for Second-hand Cars in Australia

Chinedu G. Agokei, Bomonyo J. Afa

Subject: Business, Economics And Management, Econometrics And Statistics Keywords: second-hand cars; p-values; confidence interval; non-parametric bootstrapping; correlation

Online: 10 November 2019 (16:46:47 CET)

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Preprint ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201910.0320.v1

Feasibility of Innovative Tools and Methods to Improve Household Surveys in Complex Urban Settings: Multiple Methods Analysis of the Surveys for Urban Equity (SUE) Study in Kathmandu, Dhaka and Hanoi

Dana Thomson, Radheshyam Bhattarai, Sudeepa Khanal, Shraddha Manandhar, Rajeev Dhungel, Subash Gajurel, Joseph P Hicks, Duong Minh Duc, Junnatul Ferdoush, Tarana Ferdous, Nushrat Jahan Urmy, Riffat Ara Shawon, Khuong Quynh Long, Ak Narayan Poudel, Chris Cartwright, Hilary Wallace, Tim Ensor, Sushil Baral, Saidur Mashreky, Rumana Huque, Hoang Van Minh, Helen Elsey

Subject: Business, Economics And Management, Econometrics And Statistics Keywords: Nepal; Vietnam; Bangladesh; gridded population sampling; GridSample; OpenStreetMap; GeoODK; cross-sectional design; urban; household survey

Online: 28 October 2019 (11:48:02 CET)

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Preprint ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201910.0049.v1

Climate Change Induced Flood and Landslides and Farmer’s Adapatation Practices in Paddy Production: Evidence of Rural Hilly Nepal

Raghu Bir Bista, Ranjan Kumar Dahal

Subject: Business, Economics And Management, Econometrics And Statistics Keywords: Adaptation; Indigenous knowledge; CD production; paddy; hilly Nepal

Online: 4 October 2019 (11:44:11 CEST)

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Climate change is a buzzword in the world. Scientist has approved it as global warming with its projection of undesired and unpredicted frequent extreme events and their vulnerabilities not only at present but also at future. There is an assumption of occurrence of adaptive capacity and behavior of farmers in agriculture production activity at some extent to neutralize climate change vulnerabilities of flood and landslides on paddy production. This paper empirically examines the effects of climate change in paddy production and farmer’s adaptive behaviors to neutralize such climatic shocks and events in paddy production by employing CD production function based econometric model. The study employed primary data collected through 642 household surveys. The study finds that climatic shocks and events have huge loss (60%) in paddy production and revenue income in such plot where farmers have not indigenous knowledge and practices. But both small and larger farmers who have adaptive capacity and behavior with their indigenous knowledge have less loss in paddy production and revenue income, although they have heterogeneity in their socio economic characteristics (income, asset holding, literacy, experience, land holding and age). The farmers who have used adaptive behavior have indigenous knowledge and experiences including bamboo wall construction to control flood and landslides and seed change to resist climatic shocks and events. In hilly region, the farmers have not sufficient alternative measures, except both adaptive measures because of their poverty, illiteracy and remote locations. The study finds their higher effective level to minimize vulnerabilities to paddy production and revenue per farm plot, although these adaptive behaviors are cost effective and local entity. Comparatively, bamboo wall construction is more effective measure in the paddy production than others are (seed switch) to minimize the flooding materials from the flood and the landslides. Thus, low cost indigenous adaption behavior of farmers is effective measure to climate change and climate change induced disasters and events vulnerability in paddy production.

Preprint ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201909.0102.v1

Predicting Disaggregated Tourist Arrivals in Sierra Leone using ARIMA Model

Emerson Abraham Jackson, Edmund Tamuke

Subject: Business, Economics And Management, Econometrics And Statistics Keywords: ARIMA Methodology; Out-of-Sample Forecast; Tourist Arrivals; Sierra Leone

Online: 9 September 2019 (12:11:03 CEST)

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Preprint ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201905.0311.v1

On the Tuning Parameter Selection in Model Selection and Model Averaging: A Monte Carlo Study

Hui Xiao, Yiguo Sun

Subject: Business, Economics And Management, Econometrics And Statistics Keywords: Mallows criterion; Model averaging; Model selection; Shrinkage; Tuning parameter choice.

Online: 27 May 2019 (10:28:22 CEST)

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Preprint ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201905.0190.v1

Ranking of Normality Tests—An Appraisal through Skewed Alternative Space

Tanweer Islam

Subject: Business, Economics And Management, Econometrics And Statistics Keywords: power envelope; Neyman-Pearson tests; Skewness & Kurtosis

Online: 15 May 2019 (10:50:52 CEST)

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Preprint ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201905.0127.v1

The Impact of Youth's Biospheric Interests on their Awareness and Expectations about Nuclear Power Technology in the United Arab Emirates

Ibrahim Niankara

Subject: Business, Economics And Management, Econometrics And Statistics Keywords: Clean Energy Production; Nuclear Awareness; Nuclear Electrical Power; Nuclear Optimism; Nuclear Waste; Sustainable Development

Online: 10 May 2019 (14:31:53 CEST)

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Preprint ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201905.0122.v1

Predicting Motor Insurance Claims Using Telematics Data—XGBoost vs. Logistic Regression

Jessica Pesantez-Narvaez, Montserrat Guillen, Manuela Alcañiz

Subject: Business, Economics And Management, Econometrics And Statistics Keywords: dichotomous response; predictive model; tree boosting; GLM; machine learning

Online: 10 May 2019 (11:28:11 CEST)

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Preprint ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201904.0058.v1

Intraday Load Forecasts with Uncertainty

David Kozak, Scott Holladay, Gregory Fasshauer

Subject: Business, Economics And Management, Econometrics And Statistics Keywords: load forecast; short term; probabilistic; Gaussian processes

Online: 4 April 2019 (16:01:54 CEST)

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Preprint ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201902.0259.v1

Agricultural Subsidies, Production Certification and Green Pesticide Use Rate: Evidence from Experiments

Nan Lin, Yang Zhang, Xin Hu, Lijuan Liu, Chengliang Wu

Subject: Business, Economics And Management, Econometrics And Statistics Keywords: Green pesticides; Agricultural subsidies; Product certification; Laboratory experiment

Online: 27 February 2019 (15:08:30 CET)

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Preprint ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201901.0304.v1

Insurer Resilience in an Era of Climate Change and Extreme Weather: An Econometric Analysis

James Valverde, Matteo Convertino

Subject: Business, Economics And Management, Econometrics And Statistics Keywords: climate change; econometric analysis; insurance; resilience; risk; tropical cyclones

Online: 30 January 2019 (07:10:54 CET)

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Preprint ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201811.0387.v1

Are Soybean Yields Getting a Free Ride From Climate Change? Evidence From Argentine Time Series

Hildegart Ahumada, Magdalena Cornejo

Subject: Business, Economics And Management, Econometrics And Statistics Keywords: climate change; soybean yields; technology; temperature; CO2

Online: 16 November 2018 (07:45:34 CET)

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Preprint ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201811.0329.v1

Consumption in Russia: Real Values and Impact on GDP

S. M. Borodachev

Subject: Business, Economics And Management, Econometrics And Statistics Keywords: gross domestic product; Leontief dynamic model; investments in production capital; Kalman filter

Online: 14 November 2018 (09:52:29 CET)

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Preprint ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201811.0319.v1

Environmental Regulation, Upgrading of Industrial Structure and Economic Fluctuation

Dan Zhang, Leyi Chen

Subject: Business, Economics And Management, Econometrics And Statistics Keywords: Environmental regulation, Industrial structure upgrade, Economic fluctuation, Dynamic panel threshold

Online: 13 November 2018 (15:11:13 CET)

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This paper utilizes dynamic panel threshold technology to conduct a nonlinear test on the direct effect between environmental regulation and economic fluctuations and the effect of industrial structure upgrading by taking 35 industrial sectors in China from 2003 to 2016 . The research has found that there is an inverted "U" relationship between environmental regulation and economic fluctuations, with the enhancement of environmental regulations, the economic fluctuation increases first and then decreases. The cross-terms of environmental regulation and industrial structure rationalization or industrial structure upgrading are significantly negative, which indicates that the enhancement of environmental regulation is conducive to promoting industrial structure upgrading and reducing the economic fluctuations. While the rationalization factors of industrial structure and advanced industrial structure are significantly negative, indicating that both forms of industrial structure upgrading are conducive to reducing the economic fluctuations. Environmental regulation has technical innovation thresholds for industrial structure upgrading and economic fluctuations, but there are no human capital or FDI thresholds. In the rationalization model of industrial structure, there is a nonlinear "U" relationship between environmental regulation and economic fluctuations when the proportion of scientific research expenditure is more than 1.35%. With the enhancement of environmental regulation, the economic fluctuation reduces first and then increases, and the corresponding inflection point value is 2.398% of the environmental regulation level. At the same time, the environmental regulation can indirectly reduce economic fluctuations by pushing down the industrial structure upgrades. In the advanced model of industrial structure, there is a “U” relationship between environmental regulation and economic fluctuation when the proportion of scientific research expenditure is greater than 1.26%. With continuous enhancement of environmental regulation, the economic fluctuation reduces first and then increases. The corresponding inflection point value is 1.78% of the environmental regulation level, and environmental regulation can indirectly reduce economic fluctuations by promoting the industrial structure at the same time.

Preprint ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201811.0125.v1

Research on Retailer Pricing Based on Extended Regret Theory in E-commerce Environment

Ge Qiu

Subject: Business, Economics And Management, Econometrics And Statistics Keywords: Retailers’ Optimal Pricing Strategy; Expected Utility Theory (EUT); Regret Theory; Regret Reference Point; Price-dependent Demand

Online: 5 November 2018 (15:46:20 CET)

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Preprint REVIEW | doi:10.20944/preprints201809.0523.v1

Firm's Credit Risk in the Presence of Market Structural Breaks

Haipeng Xing, Yang Yu

Subject: Business, Economics And Management, Econometrics And Statistics Keywords: credit rating transitions; mixtured estimating equations; multiplicative intensity model; structural break

Online: 27 September 2018 (03:03:41 CEST)

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Preprint ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201808.0213.v1

Fueling Global Energy Finance: The Emergence of China in Global Energy Investment

Sucharita Gopal, Joshua Pitts, Zhongshu Li, Kevin Gallagher, William Kring

Subject: Business, Economics And Management, Econometrics And Statistics Keywords: FDI, M&Q, energy, supply chain, inbound investment, outbound investment, BRI.

Online: 12 August 2018 (19:19:40 CEST)

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Preprint ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201807.0412.v1

The Use of PCA in Reduction of Credit Scoring Modeling Variables: Evidence from Greek Banking System

Panagiota Giannouli, Christos E. Kountzakis

Subject: Business, Economics And Management, Econometrics And Statistics Keywords: P.C. regression; AIC criterion; logit function; pearson's Chi-square use

Online: 23 July 2018 (10:58:36 CEST)

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Preprint ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201807.0318.v1

Monte Carlo Comparison for Nonparametric Threshold Estimators

Chaoyi Chen, Yiguo Sun

Subject: Business, Economics And Management, Econometrics And Statistics Keywords: difference kernel estimator; integrated difference kernel estimator; M-estimation; Monte Carlo; nonparametric threshold regression

Online: 18 July 2018 (08:24:47 CEST)

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Preprint ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201807.0132.v1

Searching for a Theory that fits the Data: A Personal Research Odyssey

Katarina Juselius

Subject: Business, Economics And Management, Econometrics And Statistics Keywords: Cointegrated VAR methodology, Linking theory and evidence, Empirically based macroeconomics.

Online: 9 July 2018 (11:34:19 CEST)

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Preprint ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201806.0144.v1

Determinants of willingness to pay for non-technical irrigation in East Java, Indonesia

Mohammad Rondhi, Bagus Peratama, Subhan Budiman, Anik Suwandari, Julian Ridjal

Subject: Business, Economics And Management, Econometrics And Statistics Keywords: Contingent valuation method, economic value of water, farmer-managed irrigation system

Online: 8 June 2018 (16:24:42 CEST)

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Preprint ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201806.0044.v1

Interest in the Biosphere and Environmental Awareness and Optimism among Students: A Seemingly Unrelated Bivariate Weighted Ordered Probit Modeling with Country Fixed Effects

Ibrahim Niankara, Didier T. Zoungrana

Subject: Business, Economics And Management, Econometrics And Statistics Keywords: air pollution; environmental awareness; environmental education; green gas emission; sustainable development; water shortage

Online: 4 June 2018 (13:01:55 CEST)

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Preprint ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201806.0013.v1

Trust and Distress Prediction in Modal Shift Potential of Long-Distance Road Freight in Containers: Modelling Approach in Transport Services for Sustainability

Elżbieta Szaruga, Elżbieta Skąpska, Elżbieta Załoga, Wiesław Matwiejczuk

Subject: Business, Economics And Management, Econometrics And Statistics Keywords: sustainability; trust; distress; transport services; road freight transport; modal shift potential; shift paradigm; modelling; prediction; General Discriminant Analysis

Online: 1 June 2018 (10:44:39 CEST)

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Preprint ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201805.0230.v1

Industrial Agglomeration, Foreign Direct Investment and Green Total Factor Productivity―Evidence from Manufacturing Industries in Chongqing, China

Guohua Yu, Shuqin Xu

Subject: Business, Economics And Management, Econometrics And Statistics Keywords: industrial agglomeration; FDI; green total factor productivity; spillover effect

Online: 16 May 2018 (10:54:56 CEST)

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Preprint ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201805.0017.v1

Bayesian Approach for Estimating the Probability of Cartel Penalization under the Leniency Program

Jihyun Park, Juhyun Lee, Suneung Ahn

Subject: Business, Economics And Management, Econometrics And Statistics Keywords: Bayesian approach; conjugate prior; cartel; leniency program; policy simulation

Online: 2 May 2018 (08:37:32 CEST)

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Preprint ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201804.0159.v1

An Information Approach to the Impact of Ethanol Policy on Regional Changes in Corn Production

Charles B. Moss, Dong Hee Suh, Ashok K. Mishra

Subject: Business, Economics And Management, Econometrics And Statistics Keywords: corn; ethanol; regional distribution

Online: 12 April 2018 (06:11:34 CEST)

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Preprint ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201803.0210.v1

Testing for Causality-In-Mean and Variance between the UK Housing and Stock Markets

Yuki Toyoshima

Subject: Business, Economics And Management, Econometrics And Statistics Keywords: causality-in-variance; cross-correlation function; housing and stock markets

Online: 26 March 2018 (08:48:02 CEST)

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Preprint ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201802.0121.v1

A Semi-parametric Recursive Trivariate Probit Modeling of the Contemporaneous Dynamics of Literacy, Labor Market Participation and Poverty in Burkina Faso: What role does Formal Education Play?

Ibrahim Niankara

Subject: Business, Economics And Management, Econometrics And Statistics Keywords: Formal Education, Labor Market Participation, Literacy, Poverty, Sustainable Development, Semipametric Trivariate Probit

Online: 19 February 2018 (16:00:35 CET)

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Preprint ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201802.0093.v1

Health and Environmental Consciousness Effects of Wealth in Low Income Countries: Evidence from Households' Energy, Water, and Sanitation Services Consumption in Burkina Faso

Ibrahim Niankara

Subject: Business, Economics And Management, Econometrics And Statistics Keywords: consumer behavior; cooking fuel; environmental consciousness; health consciousness; semi-parametric estimation; trivariate probit; water and sanitation; wealth

Online: 13 February 2018 (08:53:03 CET)

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Preprint ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201801.0090.v1

Clustering and Curve Fitting by Line Segments

Hrishikesh D. Vinod, Fred Viole

Subject: Business, Economics And Management, Econometrics And Statistics Keywords: clustering; curve fitting; nonparametric regression; smoothing data; polynomial approximation

Online: 10 January 2018 (09:48:23 CET)

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Preprint ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201711.0191.v1

Determinants of Pesticide Application in Nepalese Vegetable Farming: An Empirical Analysis using Multivariate Probit Model

Arun GC, Kiran Ghimire

Subject: Business, Economics And Management, Econometrics And Statistics Keywords: Pesticides, Vegetable, Nepal, Determinant, Multivariate Probit

Online: 29 November 2017 (13:27:57 CET)

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Preprint ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201711.0098.v1

The CO2 Emissions in Finland, Norway and Sweden: A Dynamic Relationship

Agustin Alonso-Rodriguez

Subject: Business, Economics And Management, Econometrics And Statistics Keywords: Paris 2015 Agreement; CO2 emissions; VAR models; Granger causality; impulse response functions; forecast error variance decomposition; software: R; MTS; RATS

Online: 15 November 2017 (18:34:09 CET)

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Preprint ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201710.0107.v1

Investigating the Relationship between Service Quality and Customer Satisfaction (Case Study: Passengers of Kaveh and Sofeh Terminals in Isfahan)

Iraj Irankhah Namini, Asma Bahranifard, Fariba Adibi

Subject: Business, Economics And Management, Econometrics And Statistics Keywords: Bus; Customer satisfaction; Intercity terminal; SERVQUAL Model

Online: 16 October 2017 (12:58:16 CEST)

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Preprint ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201709.0115.v1

Bivariate Kumaraswamy Models via Modified Symmetric FGM Copulas: Properties and Applications in Insurance Modeling

Indranil Ghosh

Subject: Business, Economics And Management, Econometrics And Statistics Keywords: Bivariate Kumaraswamy distribution; copula based construction; Kendall'stau; dependence structures; application in insurance risk modeling

Online: 25 September 2017 (06:55:52 CEST)

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Preprint ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201709.0035.v1

An Econometric Analysis of ETF and ETF Futures in Financial and Energy Markets Using Generated Regressors

Chia-Lin Chang, Michael McAleer, Chien-Hsun Wang

Subject: Business, Economics And Management, Econometrics And Statistics Keywords: exchange traded funds; financial and energy sectors; co-volatility spillovers; spot and futures prices; generated regressors; Diagonal BEKK

Online: 11 September 2017 (04:35:24 CEST)

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Preprint ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201706.0129.v1

Using LMDI to Analyze the Decoupling of Carbon Dioxide Emissions from China’s Heavy Industry

Boqiang Lin, Kui Liu

Subject: Business, Economics And Management, Econometrics And Statistics Keywords: decomposition; LMDI; decoupling; heavy industry

Online: 30 June 2017 (09:08:44 CEST)

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Preprint ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201705.0119.v1

An Alternative for Indicators Which Characterize the Structure of Economic Systems

Irina-Maria Dragan, Alexandru Isaic-Maniu

Subject: Business, Economics And Management, Econometrics And Statistics Keywords: subunit distribution; structural analysis; statistical hypothesis; parameter estimation; sequential test

Online: 16 May 2017 (07:41:47 CEST)

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Preprint ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201701.0065.v2

Backtesting the Lee-Carter and the Cairns-Blake-Dowd Stochastic Mortality Models on Italian Death Rates

Carlo Maccheroni, Samuel Nocito

Subject: Business, Economics And Management, Econometrics And Statistics Keywords: lee-carter; cairns-blake-dowd; mortality models; backtesting

Online: 8 May 2017 (07:38:50 CEST)

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Preprint ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201703.0169.v1

Analysis of China’s Carbon Emissions Base on Carbon Flow in Four Main Sectors: 2000–2013

Xin Li, Xiandan Cui, Minxi Wang

Subject: Business, Economics And Management, Econometrics And Statistics Keywords: China; sustainability development; carbon emissions; carbon flow; sectoral analysis

Online: 21 March 2017 (04:28:01 CET)

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Reducing carbon emissions is a major ways to achieving green development and sustainability for China’s future. This paper elaborates the detailed feature of China's carbon flow for 2013 with the carbon flow chart and gives changing characteristics of China's CO₂ flow from the viewpoint of sector and energy during 2000 and 2013. The results show that (1) during 2000 to 2013, China's CO₂ emissions with the approximately growth portion of 9% annually, while the CO₂ intensity of China diminishes at different rates. (2) The CO₂ emissions from secondary industry are prominent from the perspective of four main sectors accounting for 83.5%. The manufacturing play an important part in the secondary industry with 45%. In which the "smelting and pressing of metal" takes up a large percentage as about 50% in manufacturing. (3) The CO₂ emissions produced by coal consumption is keep dominant in energy-related emissions with a contribution of 65%, while it will decrease in the future. (4) From the aspect of sector, the CO₂ emissions mainly come from the "electricity and heating" sector and the "smelting and pressing of metals" sub-sector. While it is essential and urgent to propose concrete recommendations for CO₂ emissions mitigation. Firstly, the progression of creative technology is inevitable and undeniable. Secondly, the government should make different CO₂ emissions reduction policies among different sectors. For example, the process emission plays an important role in "non-metallic mineral" while in "smelting and manufacturing of metals" it is energy. Thirdly, the country can change the energy structure and promote renewable energy for powering by wind or other low-carbon energy. Besides it, the coke oven gas can be a feasible substitution. Finally, policy maker should be aware of the emissions from residents have been growing in a fast rate. It is effective to involve the public in the activity of energy conservation and carbon emissions reduction such as reducing the times of personal transportation.

Preprint ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201703.0117.v1

Goodness-of-Fit Tests for Copulas of Multivariate Time Series

Bruno Rémillard

Subject: Business, Economics And Management, Econometrics And Statistics Keywords: goodness-of-fit; time series; copulas; GARCH models

Online: 16 March 2017 (09:38:24 CET)

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Preprint ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201703.0065.v1

Modelling of Spatio-temporal Zero Truncated Patterns in Infectious Disease Surveillance Data

Oyelola Adegboye, Denis Leung, You-Gan Wang

Subject: Business, Economics And Management, Econometrics And Statistics Keywords: generalized estimating equations; overdispersion; poisson; spatio-temporal; Leishmaniasis

Online: 13 March 2017 (09:30:11 CET)

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Preprint ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201702.0064.v1

Entrance Fees and a Bayesian Approach to the St. Petersburg Paradox

Diego Marcondes, Cláudia Peixoto, Kdson Souza, Sergio Wechsler

Subject: Business, Economics And Management, Econometrics And Statistics Keywords: St. Petersburg Paradox; entrance fees; Bayesian analysis

Online: 17 February 2017 (07:18:58 CET)

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Preprint ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201701.0065.v1

Backtesting the Lee-Carter and the Cairns-Blake-Dowd Stochastic Mortality Models on Italian Death Rates

Carlo Maccheroni, Samuel Nocito

Subject: Business, Economics And Management, Econometrics And Statistics Keywords: lee-carter; cairns-blake-dowd; mortality models; backtesting

Online: 13 January 2017 (01:56:49 CET)

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Preprint ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201612.0137.v1

Accuracy and Efficiency of Various GMM Inference Techniques in Dynamic Micro Panel Data Models

Jan Kiviet, Milan Pleus, Rutger W. Poldermans

Subject: Business, Economics And Management, Econometrics And Statistics Keywords: cross-sectional heteroskedasticity; model specification strategy; Sargan-Hansen (incremental) tests; variants of t-tests; weighting matrices; Windmeijer-correction

Online: 29 December 2016 (07:32:36 CET)

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Preprint ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201612.0081.v1

Analysis of Aluminum Resource Supply Structure and Guarantee Degree in China Based on Sustainable Perspective

Shaoli Liu, Xin Li, Minxi Wang

Subject: Business, Economics And Management, Econometrics And Statistics Keywords: aluminum resources; sustainable supply; supply structure; guarantee degree

Online: 15 December 2016 (10:13:06 CET)

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Preprint ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201610.0051.v1

The Relationship between Residential Electricity Consumption and Income: A Piecewise Linear Model with Panel Data

Yanan Liu, Yixuan Gao, Yu Hao, Hua Liao

Subject: Business, Economics And Management, Econometrics And Statistics Keywords: residential electricity consumption; income; piecewise linear model; China; robust tests

Online: 14 October 2016 (09:53:13 CEST)

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Business, Economics and Management