Can Green Finance and Environmental Regulation Weather the Storm? Evidence from Agricultural Supply Chain Resilience Under Climate Risks

Against the backdrop of escalating global climate risks, this study systematically investigates the effects, boundary conditions, and interactive mechanisms of two core policy instruments—green finance and environmental regulation—on agricultural supply chain resilience. Using panel data of China’s Shanghai and Shenzhen A-share listed agribusiness firms from 2010 to 2025 and a two-way fixed effects model, we find: First, climate risk serves as a critical external pressure driving resilience building, yet its positive impact is conditional on a “capacity threshold”—only significant for firms with high resilience and large scale. Second, the two policy instruments exhibit heterogeneous structural thresholds: green finance demonstrates a “supporting-the-weak” effect, enhancing resilience primarily in small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) with low resilience, but is constrained by an “institutional–technological” double threshold. In contrast, environmental regulation displays a “scale bias”, with its statistically significant positive effect limited to large firms. Third, climate risk negatively moderates the effectiveness of green finance: under high-risk conditions, firms tend to divert green funds toward short-term relief, eroding long-term resilience investment, and this “policy failure” risk is particularly pronounced among SMEs. Fourth, mechanism tests rule out the traditional mediation channel of alleviating financing constraints; moreover, the two policy instruments have not yet formed significant synergistic effects under the current institutional framework. This study extends the application boundaries of the resource-based view and dynamic capabilities theory in high-risk contexts, provides micro-level empirical evidence on policy instrument implementation biases in heterogeneous market structures, and offers theoretical support and practical references for developing climate-smart agricultural supply chain policies.