During an epidemic outbreak it is useful for planners and responsible authorities to be able to plan ahead to estimate when an outbreak of an epidemic is likely to ease and when the last case can be predicted in their area of responsibility. Theoretically this could be done for a point source epidemic using epidemic curve forecasting. The extensive data now coming out of China makes it possible to test if this can be done using MS Excel a standard spreadsheet program available to most offices. The available data is divided up for whole China and the different provinces. This and the high number of cases makes the analysis possible. Data for new confirmed infections for Hubei, Hubei outside Wuhan, China excluding Hubei as well as Zhejiang and Fujian provinces all follow a log-normal distribution that can be used to make a rough estimate for the date of the last new confirmed cases in respective areas. In the version 2 continuation work, 9 additional days were added for the Chinese data to evaluate the previous predictions. The extra data then available from China follows the previous predicted trend supporting the usefulness of this simple technique. In the version 2 we also tested the feasibility for a non-specialist to make similar predictions using additional data from S Korea now available. In this third continuation the predictions for Version 2 are evaluated for S Korea and fits well the beginning of the decline but it seems to be difficult to bring down numbers of cases per day under about 100 new cases per day, potential reasons for this is discussed. To further evaluate when in a prediction becomes reliable the Chinese data was used to evaluate to make predictions for each day around the peak in number of cases and after2-3 consecutive days of decreasing new cases per day the prediction becomes reliable. In version 3 data for Italy just reaching this point was used to make further predictions for that country. A second new analysis was also added to use the fitted equation to detect when the acceleration of new cases per day stopped increasing exponentially. In the Chinese case this measured point coincides with the date of the complete Hubei lockdown and in the new Italian analysis it coincides with the mandatory Italian lockdown. Predicted dates for the end of the Italian outbreak is also added. In version 4 we expand the analysis to selected European countries, USA and the World as a whole and try to predict the end of the outbreak. We further discuss the apparent success of the used techniques that might work to introduce a “new normal” not very different to the previous to stop secondary outbreaks of COVID19 and future COVIDs that are sure to come.

In the speed control system of Interior Permanent Magnet Synchronous Motor (IPMSM) without a speed sensor, the speed under the traditional PI control suffers from poor tracking performance and step response overshoot. This paper proposes a Compound Variable Structure PI (CVSPI) controller to improve the system control performance. It can choose whether to include an integral term according to the size of the system deviation to speed up the response. It also introduces a Model Reference Adaptive System (MRAS) speed observer in the controller to estimate the speed and adaptively adjust the size of the anti-integration saturation gain to improve the dynamic response following performance and immunity of the system. A feed-forward link is added for a given input differential to achieve an accurate answer to time-varying inputs. As the linear compensation matrix of the conventional MRAS is a unit matrix, the speed can only be accurately observed in a specific speed range. In this paper, a new linear compensation matrix is designed, and a new speed adaptive law is derived, allowing the improved MRAS to measure speed over a wide range accurately. Simulation results validate the excellent control performance of the CVSPI and the accuracy of the enhanced MRAS over a wide speed range.

In the speed control system of Interior Permanent Magnet Synchronous Motor (IPMSM) without a speed sensor, the speed under the traditional PI control suffers from poor tracking performance and step response overshoot. This paper proposes a Compound Variable Structure PI (CVSPI) controller to improve the system control performance. It can choose whether to include an integral term according to the size of the system deviation to speed up the response. It also introduces a Model Reference Adaptive System (MRAS) speed observer in the controller to estimate the speed and adaptively adjust the size of the anti-integration saturation gain to improve the dynamic response following performance and immunity of the system. A feed-forward link is added for a given input differential to achieve an accurate answer to time-varying inputs. As the linear compensation matrix of the conventional MRAS is a unit matrix, the speed can only be accurately observed in a specific speed range. In this paper, a new linear compensation matrix is designed, and a new speed adaptive law is derived, allowing the improved MRAS to measure speed over a wide range accurately. Simulation results validate the excellent control performance of the CVSPI and the accuracy of the enhanced MRAS over a wide speed range.

Plants grown under fluctuating light impact plant developments compared with those grown under non-fluctuating light conditions. However, our knowledge on the underlying regulatory mechanisms is still quite limited, particularly from the transcriptional perspective. In order to investigate the influence of different light intensity distributions on tomato plant development, we designed three fluctuating light intensity distributions with the non-fluctuating light intensity as control and compared the transcriptional differences after five weeks of treatment. We found plant height and aerial/root weight were significantly reduced under all fluctuating light treatments. Transcriptome analysis revealed that the number of up and down regulated genes had a distinct distribution pattern between different treatments and control. The largest difference between the numbers of down and up regulated genes was found between treatment 1 and 3, reaching to a total of 416 genes. The number and type of the top 20 enriched pathways differed between treatments and control. The largest number of genes enriched was involved in the biosynthesis of secondary metabolites. These results provide insights into the transcriptional regulations of tomato under different light intensity distributions.

Aiming to improve the flame retardancy performance of natural rubber (NR), we developed a novel flame retardant synergistic agent through grafting of MCM-41 to graphene oxide (GO)，named as GO-NH-MCM-41，as an assistant of intumescent flame retardants (IFR). The structure of GO-NH-MCM-41 was characterized by FTIR, TEM and SEM tests, which confirmed that a fine grafting had been applied between GO and MCM-41. The flame retardancy of NR/IFR/GO-NH-MCM-41 composites was evaluated by limited oxygen index (LOI), UL-94 and cone calorimeter test. The LOI value of NR/IFR/GO-NH-MCM-41 reached to 26.3%; the UL-94 ratings improved to V-0 rating. Moreover, the addition of GO-NH-MCM-41 obviously decreased the peak heat release rate (PHRR) and the total heat release (THR) of the natural rubber composites. And the addition of GO-NH-MCM-41 increased the thickness of char residue. The images of SEM indicated the char residue were more compact and continuous. The degradation of GO-NH-MCM-41 based NR composites completed with a mass loss of 35.57% at 600 ℃. The tensile strength and the elongation at break of NR/IFR/GO-NH-MCM-41 composites were 13.9 MPa and 496.7%, respectively. The results of rubber process analyzer (RPA) reached the maximum value, probably due to a better network of the fillers in the matrix.

Tree peony flowers are traditional ornamental and medicinal materials in China. In this study, 23 tree peony flowers at a broad color spectrum were analyzed. Gas chromatography-mass spectrometer (GC-MS) revealed that tree peony flowers are rich in sugars and organic acids. Up to 18 amino acids were identified by liquid chromatography-mass spectrometer (LC-MS), including all essential amino acids, except for methionine. The majority of amino acids were significant positively correlated with each other and were significant negatively correlated with glucose, fructose and galactose. A total of 11 polyphenols were identified in these tree fresh peony flowers by LC-MS. There was a high consistency in grouping peony flowers by using sugars and organic acids and amino acids, which differed from that based on color components and polyphenols. Tree peony flowers are also rich in K, Ca, Mg and Fe. In together, peony flowers can be a good resource of health-promoting compounds.

By reactive DC magnetron sputtering from a pure Ta target onto silicon substrates, Ta(N) films were prepared with a different N₂ flow rate of 0, 12, 17, 25, 38, 58 sccm. The effects of N₂ flow rate on the electrical properties, crystal structure, elemental composition and optical properties of Ta(N) were studied. These properties were characterized by the four-probe method, X-ray diffraction (XRD), X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy (XPS), and spectroscopic ellipsometry (SE). Results show that the deposition rate decreases with an increase of the N₂ flows. On the other hand, the resistivity increases, the crystal size decreases, and the crystal structure transitions from β-Ta to TaN(111), and finally becomes the N-rich phase Ta₃N₅ (130,040). Studying the optical properties, it is found that there are differences in the refractive index (n) and extinction coefficient (k) of Ta(N) with different thicknesses and different N₂ flow rates, and dependent on the crystal size and crystal phase structure.

Imperatorin is a chemical compound belong to Linear furan coumarins. Imperatorin is attracting considerable attention because of its anti-tumor, antibacterial, anti-inflammatory, anticoagulant and inhibition of myocardial hypetrophy and other pharmacological efficacy. However, imperatorin has limited water solubility and preferable lipid solubility, we decided to design and synthesize imperatorin lipid microsphere, to optimize preparation conditions. The aim was to develop and formulate imperatorin lipid microsphere through nano emulsion technology and apply the response surface-central composite design to optimize the imperatorin lipid microsphere formulation. Influence of content of amount of egg lecithin(A), amount of poloxamer188(B), soybean oil for injection accounted for the total percentage of oil phase(C) were investigated. Integrated effect of dependent variables including particle size(Y₁), polydispersity index(Y₂), Zeta potentials(Y₃), drug loading(Y₄), encapsulation efficiency(Y₅). Data of overall desirabiities were fitted to a second-order polynomial equation, through which three dimensional response surface graphs were described. Optimum experimental conditions were calculated by Design-Expert 8.06. Results indicated that the optimum preparation conditions were as follows: egg lecithin amount 1.39 g, poloxamer188 amount 0.21 g, soybean oil for injection amount 10.57%. Preparation of imperatorin lipid microsphere according to the optimum experimental conditions resulted in an overall desirability of 0.7286, while the particele size (168±0.54) nm, polydispersity index (PDI) (0.138±0.02), Zeta potentials (−43.5±0.5) mV, drug loading (0.833±0.27) mg·mL⁻¹, encapsulation efficiency (90±1.27)%. The difference between observed and predicted values of the overall desirability of the optimum formulation was in range from 2.4% to 4.3%. Subsequently, using the Scanning electron microscopy to observe the micromorphology of imperatorin lipid microsphere, the result shows that round globular of relatively uniform and sizes within 200nm.The proliferation study of imperatorin lipid microsphere on MDA-MB-231 was investigated by MTT method. Furthermore, pharmacokinetics in Sprague Dawley rats were evaluated using orbital bleeding. A sensitive and reliable liquid chromatography with High Performance Liquid Chromatography (HPLC) method was established and validated for the quantification of imperatorin in rat plasma samples. The data were calculated by DAS (Drug and statistics) pharmacokinetic software version3.2.6 (China). Results demonstrated that imperatorin lipid microsphere can significantly enhance the bioavailability of imperatorin and can significantly inhibit MDA-MB-231 cell proliferating. In conclusion, our results suggersted that the response surface-central composite design is suitable for the optimized lipid microspere formulation. Imperatorin Lipid microsphere can improve the bioavailability of imperatorin and inhibit the proliferation of MDA-MB-231 than that of imperatorin.

Subchondral bone loss is an important pathological feature of early-stage temporomandibular joint (TMJ) osteoarthritis (OA). Previous studies focused mainly on the bone resorption by osteoclasts in early-stage OA, but the bone formation feature has not drawn enough attention. Sema4D/Plexin-B1 is a pair of molecules expressed by osteoclast/osteoblast, which is capable of inhibiting bone formation by osteoblasts. The present study found that subchondral bone loss in early-stage TMJ OA was accompanied by up-regulated expression of Sema4D in cartilage and subchondral bone and Plexin-B1 in subchondral bone. Reducing Sema4D level could inhibit the subchondral bone loss and cartilage degeneration of early-stage TMJ OA. In vitro, results revealed that Sema4D could reduce the expression of osteocalcin (OCN) and alkaline phosphatase (ALP), and increase the migrating capability of Plexin-B1-positive osteoblasts. Our results revealed that elevated Sema4D expression in early-stage TMJ OA might decrease the bone formation activity of osteoblasts in the subchondral bone by binding to Plexin-B1 expressed by osteoblasts. Inhibiting Sema4D/Plexin-B1 signaling in the early-stage OA holds promise as a strategy for new therapeutic approaches to osteoarthritis.

Background: The coronavirus disease-19 (COVID-19) has spread globally with more than 80,000 people infected, and nearly 3000 patients died. Currently, we are in an urgent need for effective treatment strategy to control the clinical deterioration of COVID-19 patients. Methods: The clinical data of 10 COVID-19 patients receiving short-term moderate-dose corticosteroid (160mg/d) plus immunoglobulin (20g/d) were studied in the North Yard of The First Hospital of Changsha, Hunan from January 17^th to February 27^th, 2020. Epidemiological, clinical, laboratory, radiological findings were analyzed. Results: After treatment with combination of low-dose corticosteroid (40-80mg/d) and immunoglobulin (10g/d), patients’ lymphocyte count (0.88±0.34 vs 0.59±0.18, P<0.05), oxygenation index including SPO₂ (94.90±2.51 vs 90.50±5.91, P<0.05) and PaO₂/FiO₂ (321.36±136.91 vs 129.30±64.97, P<0.05) were significantly lower than pre-treatment, and CT showed that the pulmonary lesion deteriorated in all patients. While after treatment of short-term moderate-dose corticosteroid plus immunoglobulin, patients’ APACHE Ⅱ score (9.10±6.15 vs 5.50±9.01, P<0.05), body temperature (37.59±1.16 vs 36.46±0.25, P<0.05), lymphocyte count (0.59±0.18 vs 1.36±0.51, P<0.05), Lactate dehydrogenase (419.24±251.31 vs 257.40±177.88, P<0.05), and C-reactive protein (49.94±26.21 vs 14.58±15.25, P<0.05) significantly improved compared with post-treatment with low-dose therapy. In addition, oxygenation index including SPO₂ (90.50±5.91 vs 97.50±1.18, P<0.05), PaO₂ (60.47±14.53 vs 99.07±34.31, P<0.05), and PaO₂/FiO₂ (129.30±64.97 vs 340.86±146.72, P<0.05) significant improved. Furthermore, CT showed that pulmonary lesions obviously improved in 7 patients. After systematic therapy, 4 out of 10 COVID-19 patients recovered and discharged. Conclusions: Short-term moderate-dose corticosteroid plus immunoglobulin is effective for reversing the continued deterioration of COVID-19 patients who failed to respond to the low-dose therapy. Funding: This work was supported by the Innovative Major Emergency Project Funding against the New Coronavirus Pneumonia in Hunan Province (Dr. Ji-Yang Liu, number 2020SK3014; Dr. Yuan-Lin Xie, number 2020SK3013).