Glaciers in northern Pakistan are a prime source of freshwater, providing headwater in the Indus river system and serving as a lifeline to millions of people in the region. These glaciers undergo continuous changes by melting due to global warming or accumulation due to snowfall/precipitation at higher altitudes. In this study, we used remote sensing data to quantify glacier changes in spatiotemporal variability in the past three decades. Five glaciers in the Gilgit region (near the junction of the Hindukush and Karakoram Mountains) with an extent of less than 5 square kilometers were selected, namely Phakor glacier, Karamber glacier, East Gammu glacier, Bhort glacier, and Bad-e-Swat glacier. The fluctuations in these glaciers were monitored using a digital elevation model (DEM) and a cloud-free continuous series of Landsat satellite pictures from the minimal snow cover season. The annual climatic trends were studied through spatially interpolated gridded climate data WοrldClim version-1 climate database for 1970 – 2000. We used it to study the variations of minimum and maximum temperature, solar radiation, and precipitation through the preparation of sub-sets from the original global grids. Because of its exact delineation in the Gilgit sub-basin, the characterized watersheds were visually compared to optical Landsat 8 OLI data for mountainous ridge matching, revealing that SRTM 30m (radar-based) demonstrated greater accuracy than other DEMs. The temporal assessment of Bhort, Bad-e-Sawat, East Gammu, Karamber, and other rivers was also carried out. It is observed that the glaciers in the Gilgit watershed are rather stable. The little variability of glaciers is due to their geographic condition, altitude, topography, and orientation. Validation of the mapped glacier classes has been performed to check the accuracy assessment through an error matrix method. The kappa coefficient from the error matrix has been calculated to be 84 %. The study makes a critical input to a greater understanding of watershed controlling and hydrological processes in the upper Indus catchment's Gilgit watershed.

Due to the use of structural and seismic techniques an attempt has been made in this study to determine the hydrocarbon potential and future exploration in Pakistan's Lower Indus basin area and offshore region. In addition to the possibility of hydrocarbon accumulation, the major goals of this research are to analyze structural patterns in the subsurface of the study region, identify the horizons of various formations using surface seismic, and interpret seismic lines. Seismic data has been used to find and integrate the exposed Cretaceous/Tertiary basalt at Ranikot in the lower Indus basin to the well-known Deccan basalts of the Indo-Pak plate, which is the secondary goal of the current investigation. According to the interpretation of seismic data, the Indo-Pakistan plate has experienced rifting because of tectonic activity. Graben and horst structures have been identified in the study area horizon, which indicates that the area has undergone major structural and depositional changes. While faults provide a pathway for hydrocarbons to migrate from their source to reservoir rock, grabens are principally responsible for the accumulation of hydrocarbons. We further deduce that the prior exploration failures in the area were due to a lack of knowledge of the subsurface formations and structural trends, which are essential for characterizing the hydrocarbon play and trap features. Our results can be productive for the local hydrocarbon drilling projects as well as worldwide tectonic stratigraphy studies on passive continental edges.

The Indus basin is considered as the one with the highest dependence on snowmelt runoff in High Mountain Asia. The recent High Mountain Asia snow reanalysis enables to go beyond previous studies by evaluating both snowmelt and snow sublimation at the basin scale. Over 2000-2016, basin-average snowmelt is 101 11 Gt.a^-1 (121 ± 13 mm.a^-1), which represents about 25-30% of basin-average annual precipitation. Snow sublimation accounts for 11% of the mean annual snow ablation, but with a large spatial variability across the basin.

Remote sensing has considerable potential to contribute to the identification and reconstruction of lost hydrological systems and networks. Remote sensing-based reconstructions of palaeo-river networks have commonly employed single or limited time-span imagery, which limits their capacity to identify features in complex and varied landscape contexts. This paper presents a seasonal multi-temporal approach to the detection of palaeo-rivers over large areas based on long-term vegetation dynamics and spectral decomposition techniques. The use of multi-temporal data has allowed the overcoming of seasonal cultivation patterns and long-term visibility issues related to crop selection, large-scale irrigation and land use patterns. The application of this approach on the Sutlej-Yamuna interfluve (northwest India), a core area for the Bronze Age Indus Civilisation, has enabled the reconstruction of an unsuspectedly complex palaeo-river network comprising more than 8000 kms of palaeo-channels. It has also enabled the definition of the morphology of these relict courses, which provides insights into the environmental conditions in which they operated. These new data will contribute to a better understanding of the settlement distribution and environmental settings in which this, often considered riverine, civilisation operated.

This study focusses on identifying a set of representative future climate projections for the Upper Indus Basin (UIB). Although a large number of GCM’s predictor sets are nowadays available in the CMIP5 archive, the issue of their reliability for specific regions must still be confronted. This situation makes it imperative to sort out the most appropriate, single or small-ensemble set of GCMs for the assessment of climate change impacts in a region. Here a set of different approaches is adopted and applied for a step-wise shortlist and selection of appropriate climate models for the UIB under two RCPs: RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5, based on, a) range of projected mean changes, b) range of projected extreme changes, and c) skill in reproducing the past climate. Furthermore, because of higher uncertainties in climate projection for high mountainous regions like the UIB, a wider range of future GCM climate projections is considered by using all possible future extreme scenarios (wet-warm, wet-cold, dry-warm, dry-cold). Based on this two-fold procedure, a limited number of climate models is pre-selected, out of which the final selection is done by assigning ranks to the weighted score for each of the mentioned selection criteria. The dynamically downscaled climate projections from the Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) available for the top-ranked GCMs are further statistically downscaled (bias-corrected) over the UIB. The downscaled projections up to year 2100 indicate temperature increases ranging between 2.3 °C and 9.0 °C and precipitation changes that range, from a slight annual increase of 2.2% under the drier scenarios, to as high as 15.9% for the wet scenarios. Moreover, for all scenarios, the future precipitation will be more extreme, as the probability of wet days will decrease, while, at the same time, the precipitation intensities will increase. The spatial distribution of the downscaled predictors across the UIB also shows similar patterns for all scenarios, with a distinct precipitation decrease over the south-eastern parts of the basin, but an increase in the northeastern parts. These two features are particularly intense for the “Dry-Warm” and the “Median” scenarios over the late 21st century.

The present study aims to evaluate the capability of the TRMM-3B42-(V7) precipitation product to estimate appropriate precipitation rates in the Upper Indus basin (UIB) and the analysis of the dependency of the estimates’ accuracies on the time scale. To that avail statistical analyses and comparison of the TMPA- products with gauge measurements in the UIB are carried out. The dependency of the TMPA estimates’ quality on the time scale is analysed by comparisons of daily, monthly, seasonal and annual sums for the UIB. The results show considerable biases in the TMPA- (TRMM) precipitation estimates for the UIB, as well as high false alarms and miss ratios. The correlation of the TMPA- estimates with ground-based gauge data increases considerably and almost in a linear fashion with increasing temporal aggregation, i.e. time scale. The BIAS is mostly positive for the summer season, while for the winter season it is predominantly negative, thereby showing a slight over-estimation of the precipitation in summer and under-estimation in winter. The results of the study suggest that, in spite of these discrepancies between TMPA- estimates and gauge data, the use of the former in hydrological watershed modelling, endeavoured presently by the authors, may be a valuable alternative in data- scarce regions, like the UIB, but still must be taken with a grain of salt.

The current study applied a new approach for the interpolation and regionalization of observed precipitation series to a smaller spatial scale (0.125° by 0.125° grid) across the Upper Indus Basin (UIB), with appropriate adjustments for the orographic effect and changes in glacier storage. The approach is evaluated and validated through reverse hydrology, guided by observed flows and available knowledge base. More specifically, the generated corrected precipitation data is validated by means of SWAT-modelled responses of the observed flows to the different input precipitation series (original and corrected ones). The results show that the SWAT- simulated flows using the corrected, regionalized precipitation series as input are much more in line with the observed flows than those using the uncorrected observed precipitation input for which significant underestimations are obtained.