The Apennine sector formed by Sannio and Irpinia is one of the most important seismic districts in Italy, representing a good case of study due to the plenty of recorded earthquakes that have therein occurred from Roman times up to nowadays. We have merged the historical record and the new satellite techniques that allow a precise determination of ground movements, and then derived physical dimensions like strain rate. In this way, we have verified that in Irpinia the hazard of new strong shocks forty years after one of the strongest known seismic events in the district is still high. This aspect must be considered very important from many points of view, particularly for Civil Protection plans, as well as civil engineering and urban planning development.

The proportion of area under various crops at a given point in time, known as a cropping pattern, plays an essential role in determining the level of agricultural production. In this study, cropping patterns of three sub-counties in Murang’a County, a typical African smallholder farming area in Kenya, were mapped. Specifically, we compared the performance of eight classification scenarios for mapping cropping patterns; namely using (i) only Sentinel-2 reflectance bands (S2), (ii) S2 and S2 derived vegetation indices (VIs); (iii) S2 and S2 vegetation phenology (VP); (iv) S2 and Sentinel-1 radar backscatter data (S1); (v) S2, VIs, and S1; (vi) S2, VP, and S1; (vii) S2, VIs and VP, and (viii) S2, VIs, VP and S1. Reference data of the dominant cropping patterns and non-croplands were collected. The guided regularized random forest (GRRF) algorithm was used to select the optimum variables and to perform the respective classification for each scenario. The most accurate result of the overall accuracy of 93.16% was attained from the scenario (viii) S2, VIs, VP, and S1. The McNemar’s test of significance did not show significant differences (p≤0.05) among the tested scenarios. Our study demonstrated the strength of GRRF and the synergetic advantage of S2 and S1 derivatives to map cropping patterns in a heterogeneous landscape where high resolution imagery are inaccessible. Our cropping pattern mapping approach can be used in other sites of relatively similar agro-ecological conditions.

Despite numerous studies in statistical downscaling methodology, there remains a lack of methods that can downscale from precipitation modeled in global climate models to regional level high resolution gridded precipitation. This paper reports a novel downscaling method using a Generative Adversarial Network (GAN), CliGAN, which can downscale large-scale annual maximum precipitation given by simulation of multiple atmosphere-ocean global climate models (AOGCM) from Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project 6 (CMIP6) to regional-level gridded annual maximum precipitation data. This framework utilizes a convolution encoder-dense decoder network to create a generative network and a similar network to create a critic network. The model is trained using an adversarial training approach. The critic uses the Wasserstein distance loss function and the generator is trained using a combination of adversarial loss Wasserstein distance, structural loss with the multi-scale structural similarity index (MSSIM), and content loss with the Nash-Sutcliff Model Efficiency (NS). The MSSIM index allowed us to gain insight into the model’s regional characteristics and shows that relying exclusively on point-based error functions, widely used in statistical downscaling, may not be enough to reliably simulate regional precipitation characteristics. Further use of structural loss functions within CNN-based downscaling methods may lead to higher quality downscaled climate model products.

Failure to adapt to climate change is currently considered one of the major threats affecting humanity. Hence, much effort is being put into discussing adaptation approaches. While many adaptation options have been identified, the academic literature does not present a simple process that local councils and community members can use to rank adaptation options. In this context, community members participating on planning processes are presented with many adaptation options, but with no objective approach for selection, which adds challenge to the planning process. With the objective of addressing this issue, this work proposes a simple equation that allows calculating the applicability level of adaptation options. Results can then be plotted into graphs that allow correlating adaptation options and applicability level, which can be easily understood by community members. To develop such equation, this work built on existing sophisticated models from where the indicators used on the equation were identified, as well as the relationship between them. A scale was proposed to help on identifying adaptation options that should be implemented on the short, medium and long term, and options that should only be implemented if the circumstance change.

This study uses Landsat 8 and Digital Elevation Models (DEM) to show the dominant orientations of digital lineaments and morphotectonic features between measured trends and the tectonic evolution of the Upper Guajira, Colombia, in the northernmost region of the South American plate. Data from Landsat-8 and hillshaded images of three Digital Elevation Model (DEM) images with different resolutions (SRTM: 90m, ASTER-GDEM: 30m and Alos-Palsar: 12.5m), were used for the extraction and mapping of morpholineaments, drainage network and morphological features. Lineaments were analyzed by means of north azimuth frequency, length, density distributions, lithological distributions and geochronological periods. Tectonic control was supported by using the digitized geological map created by the Colombian Geological Service (SGC). Lineaments and faults were analyzed through the interpretation of a Riedel shear model as a result of the transtensional/transpressional tectonic arrangement of the Caribbean and South American plates. The directional trends of lineaments and faults indicate two dominant directions: NE-SW and E-W. The azimuth distribution analysis of measured structures and drainage channels show similar trends, except for some differences in the predominant directions of some drainage channels. The similarity in the orientation of lineaments, faults and drainage system highlights the degree of control exerted by underlying structures on the surface geomorphological features. Drainage channel classification illustrates the morphological and neo-tectonic complexity of the region. The extracted lineaments were divided into five geochronological groups based on the main ages of host rock formations according to the Colombian Geological Service (SGC) geological map. From the Cretaceous onward, the lineament azimuth frequency rotates from a NE-SW trend to a prominent E-W direction, which resembles the translation that Caribbean plate has been undergoing since the Cretaceous. Our results confirm that Remote Sensing techniques are reliable and useful to study the morphotectonic of an area and can be applied to zones of difficult access.

Taking a typical forest underlying surface as the research area, this study employed the unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) photogrammetry to explore more accurate canopy parameters including tree height and canopy radius, which were used to improve the Noah-MP land surface model conducted in Dinghushan Forest Ecosystem Research Station (CN-Din). While the canopy radius was fitted as a Burr distribution, the canopy height of CN-Din forest followed a Weibull distribution. The replacement of the parameters by these observed UAV would result in the Noah-MP model. It was found that the influence on the simulation of the energy fluxes could not be negligible, and the main influence of these canopy parameters was on the latent heat flux which could decrease up to -11% in the midday while increase up to 15% in the nighttime. Additionally, this work indicated that the description of the canopy characteristics for the land surface model should be improved to accurately deliver the heterogeneity for the underlying surface.

In this study we focus on measurements and modeled UV index at the region of Athens, Greece, during a period of a low ozone event. During the period of 12 to 19 of May 2020, total column ozone (TOC) showed extremely low values 35-55 DU (up to 15%) decrease from the climatic mean (being lower than the -2σ). This condition favors the increase of UV erythemal irradiance, since stratospheric ozone is the most important attenuator at the UVB spectral region. A parallel intrusion of Saharan Dust aerosols in the region has masked a large part of the low ozone effect on UV irradiance. In order to investigate the event, we have used spectral solar irradiance measurements from the Precision Solar Radiometer (PSR), total column ozone from the BREWER spectrophotometer and Radiative Transfer Model (RTM) calculations. Model calculations of UV Index (UVI) showed an increase of ~30% compared to the long term normal UVI due to the low TOC while at the same time and for particular days, aerosols masked this effect by ~20%. The study points out the importance of accurate measurements or forecasts of both ozone and aerosols when deriving UVI under unusual low ozone-high aerosol conditions.

The assessment of the number of people exposed to natural hazards, especially in countries with strong urban growth, is difficult to be updated at the same rate as land use develops. This paper presents a remote sensing based procedure for quick updating the assessment of the population exposed to natural hazards. A relationship between satellite nightlights intensity and urbanization density from global available cartography is first assessed when all data are available. This can be used to extrapolate urbanization data at different time steps, updating exposure each time new nightlights intensity maps are available. As reliability test for the proposed methodology, the number of people exposed to riverine flood in Italy is assessed, deriving a probabilistic relationship between DMSP nightlights intensity and urbanization density from GUF database for the year 2011. People exposed to riverine flood are assessed crossing the population distributed on the derived urbanization density with flood hazard zones provided by ISPRA. The validation on reliable exposures derived from ISTAT data shows good agreement. The possibility to update exposure maps with higher refresh rate makes this approach particularly suitable for applications in developing countries, where exposure may change at sub-yearly scale.

The Wave Mode (WM) is a unique imaging mode of spaceborne synthetic aperture radar (SAR), which is dedicatedly designed for global ocean surface wave observations. Since it was firstly achieved in the ERS-1/SAR satellite starting from 1991, the WM data over global oceans have been continuously acquired by the ESA’s SAR instruments onboard the satellites of ERS-2 (1997 – 2011), ENVISAT (2002 – 2012), Sentinel-1A(2014--)/1B(2016--) and the Chinese GaoFen-3 SAR (2016--), for nearly 30 years. Therefore, spaceborne SAR WM data have been a ‘big data’, which however, has not been widely exploited for global ocean wave measurements. In this study, we demonstrate its application on global ocean wave measurements based on the ten-year Advanced SAR (ASAR) WM data.

There is an accelerating requirement for ocean sensing where autonomous vehicles can play an essential role in assisting engineers, researchers, and scientists with environmental monitoring and collecting oceanographic data. This paper is performed to develop a rigid sail for the autonomous sailing drone. Our study aims to numerically analyze the aerodynamic characteristics of curvy twin sail and compare it with wing sail. Because racing regulations limit the sail shape, only the two-dimensional geometry was open for an optimization. Therefore, this study’s first objective was to identify the aerodynamic performance of such curvy twin sails. Simultaneously, a secondary objective was to estimate the effect of the sail’s spacing and shapes. A viscous Navier-Stokes flow solver is used for the numerical aerodynamic analysis. The 2D aerodynamic investigation is a preliminary evaluation. The results have shown that the curvy twin sail designs have improved lift, drag, and driving force coefficient compared to the wing sails. The spacing between the port and starboard sails of curvy twin sail is an important parameter. The spacing is 0.035L, 0.07L, and 0.14L shows the lift coefficient reduction because of dramatically stall effect, while flow separation is improved with spacing is 0.21L, 0.28L, and 0.35L. Significantly, the spacing 0.28L shows the maximum high pressure at the lower area and the small low pressure area at leading edges, so the highest lift is generated.

Historical analysis of Australian bushfire data spanning 170 years addresses whether the strength of recent fire events has been exacerbated by human-induced climate change. The question of “cause” looks at the characteristics of a wider range of natural hazards. Fire characteristics are compared with earthquake hazard characteristics: (1) energy – termed “magnitude”; (2) severity – termed “intensity”; and (3) resultant damage to people and structures – termed “impact”.Published global, Northern and Southern hemisphere temperature data are shown to vary consistently in phase over 170 years, but vary in amplitude with statistical significance. CO₂ levels north and south of the Equator have tracked quite consistently. Thus, Southern Hemisphere bushfire magnitude and intensity is compared with the Southern Hemisphere climate record, rather than a global data set.28 major bushfires and associated droughts since 1850 show neither apparent drought extent, nor area burned, nor bushfire intensity, correlates with changes in Southern Hemisphere climate. Average rainfall from 1900 shows a wetter, rather than drier trend. Cyclone energy shows no significant trend with climate. Planet-wide “greening”, through CO₂ fertilisation, is an insignificant contributor to bushfire magnitude. Combustion theory shows recorded “global warming” could have had no significant influence on bushfire magnitude or intensity. Any increase in Australian bushfire impact, as judged by lives lost, similarly, shows no correlation with bushfire magnitude, nor indeed, any observed Southern Hemisphere global warming.Thus, bushfire magnitude seems much more likely driven by fuel load and any anomalous bushfire intensity is likely driven by anomalous ground level fuel load. The evidence suggests that any CO₂ emissions reduction will have no impact on future bushfire “severity.

Highly-resolved data on water balance components (like runoff or storage) are crucial to improve water management, e.g., in drought or flood situations. Because regional observations of these components cannot be acquired adequately, applying water balance models is a feasible solution. We developed an innovative approach using the physically-based lumped-parameter water balance model BROOK90 (R version) integrated into a sensor network platform to derive daily water budget components for catchments in the Free State of Saxony. The model is not calibrated but rather uses available information on soil, land use and precipitation only. We applied the hydro response units (HRUs) approach for 6175 small and medium-sized catchments. For the evaluation, model output was cross-evaluated in ten selected head catchments in a low mountain range in Saxony. The mean values of Kling-Gupta efficiency (KGE) for the period 2005-2019 to these catchments are 0.63 and 0.75 for daily and monthly discharge simulations, respectively. The simulated evapotranspiration and soil wetness are in good agreement with the SMAP_L4_GPH product in April 2015-2018. The study can be enhanced by using different data platforms as well as available information on study sites.

Over the past 150 million years, the Chilean Atacama Desert has been transformed into one of the most inhospitable landscapes by geophysical changes, which makes it an ideal Mars analog that has been explored for decades. However, two heavy rainfalls that occurred in the Atacama in 2015 and 2017 provide a unique opportunity to study the response of resident extremophiles to rapid environmental change associated with excessive water and salt shock. Here we combine mineral/ salt composition measurements, amendment cell culture experiments, and next-generation sequencing analyses to study the variations in salts and microbial communities along a latitudinal aridity gradient of the Atacama Desert. In addition, we examine the reshuffling of Atacama microbiomes after the two rainfall events by comparing with previous researches. Analysis of microbial community composition revealed that soils within the southern arid desert were consistently dominated by Actinobacteria, Proteobacteria, Acidobacteria, Planctomycetes, Chloroflexi, Bacteroidetes, Gemmatimonadetes, and Verrucomicrobia. Intriguingly, the hyperarid microbial consortia exhibited a similar pattern to the more southern desert. Salts at the shallow subsurface were dissolved and leached down to a deeper layer, challenging indigenous microorganisms with the increasing osmotic stress. Microbial viability was found to change with aridity and rainfall events. This study sheds light on the structure of xerophilic, halophilic, and radioresistant microbiomes from the hyperarid northern desert to the less arid southern transition region, as well as their response to changes in water availability. Our findings may infer similar events that happened on the wetter early Mars.

Background: While greenness has been associated with lower depression, the generalizability of this association in arid landscapes remains undetermined. We assessed the association between depression and greenness among nursing students living in El Paso, Texas (the Chihuahuan desert). Methods: Depression was measured with the Patient Health Questionnaire-9 scale, and greenness with the normalized difference vegetation index (at buffer sizes =250m, 500m, 1000m). Using data from the National Land Cover Database two additional measures of land patterns were analyzed: grayness and brownness. Structural equation models were used to assess the relationships of these land patterns to depression and quantify the indirect effects of peer alienation. Results: After adjusting for individual characteristics, at buffers 250 m greenness was associated with a decrease in the Incidence Rate Ratios (IRR) of depression by 49% (IRR, 0.51; 95%CI, 0.12-2.10), greyness with increases by 64% (IRR, 1.64; 95%CI, 1.07-2.52) and brownness with decreases by 35% (IRR, 0.65; 95%CI, 0.42-0.99). At buffer 250 m peer alienation explained 17.43% (95% CI, -1.79-36.66) of the association between depression and brownness, suggesting a pathway to depression. Conclusions: We did not observe an association between depression and residential greenness in El Paso, Texas. However, we did observe a protective association between brownness and depression as well as an adverse association with grayness. These results have theoretical implications as based on commonly used frameworks in this literature and adverse association of brownness (and the lack of greenness) and depression was expected.

The discovery of a growing number of exoplanets and even extrasolar systems supports the scientific consensus that it is possible to find other signs of life in the universe. The present work proposes for the first time, an explicit mechanism inspired by the dynamics of biological dispersion, widely used in ecology and epidemiology, to study the dispersion of biogenic units, interpreted as complex organic molecules, between rocky or water exoplanets (habitats) located inside star clusters. The results of the dynamic simulation suggest that for clusters with populations lower than 4 M+/ly³ it is not possible to obtain biogenic worlds after 5 Gyr. Above this population size, biogenic dispersion seems to follow a power law, the larger the density of worlds lesser will be the impact rate (β ) value to obtain at least one viable biogenic Carrier habitat after 5 Gyr. Finally, when we investigate scenarios by varying β, a well-defined set of density intervals can be defined in accordance to its characteristic β value, suggesting that biogenic dispersion has a behavior of “minimal infective dose” of “minimal biogenic effective” events by interval i.e. once this dose has been achieved, doesn’t matter if additional biogenic impact events occur on the habitat.

Cascading Tank Village Systems (CTVSs) of Sri Lanka historically provided a resilient community-based social-ecological water management system in the rural dryzone of Sri Lanka [1]. The CTVS has been described as the ‘lifeblood’ of communities in the rural dry zone [2] and as a globally important Agricultural Heritage System by the FAO [3]. After being abandoned for many centuries, their restoration is now being pursued by different national and international actors as a key to climate change mitigation and sustainable livelihoods for communities [4]. Rural livelihoods in the dry zone are at risk due to multiple factors, poor access and management of water, economic and health pressures, as well as resource limitations and degradation [5]. Despite recent efforts to restore CTVS systems, no social-ecological approach (SES) nor sustainable livelihoods framework (SLF) focused approach to ensuring resilient and sustainable livelihood outcomes has been taken [6]. As part of an on-going PhD project, this paper describes the background, current challenges and potential for an SES focused resilience thinking approach to CTVS combined with a focus on sustainable livelihoods for future sustainable livelihood opportunities and outcomes. The study finds current restoration efforts are at a crossroads between restoring the past (system adaptability) or transforming for the future. It introduces relevant SES and resilience thinking concepts and analyses the CTVS from this perspective. A particular contribution of this study is to point to the significant overlaps and complementarities in social-ecological (SES) resilience thinking and SLF approaches to analysis and proposals for resilient rural development. Employing resilience thinking principles it recommends strategies to create positive livelihood outcomes for communities and households. Keywords: cascading tank village system; sustainable livelihoods; resilience thinking; Sri Lanka; rural dry zone; community rural development

The spatiotemporal variability of vegetation in the Middle East was investigated for the period 2001–2019 using the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) 16-day/500 m composites of the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI; MOD13A1). The results reveal a strong increase in the NDVI coverage in the Middle East during the study period (R = 0.75, p-value = 0.05). In Egypt, the annual coverage exhibits the strongest positive trend (R = 0.99, p-value = 0.05). In Turkey, both the vegetation coverage and density increased from 2001 to 2019, which can be attributed to the construction of some of the biggest dams in the Middle East, such as the Atatürk and Ilisu dams. Significant increases in the annual coverage and maximum and average NDVI in Saudi Arabia are due to farming in the northern part of the country for which groundwater and desalinated seawater are used. The results of this study suggest that the main factors affecting the vegetation coverage in the Middle East are governmental policies. These policies can have a positive effect on the vegetation coverage in some countries such as Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Kuwait, Iran, and Turkey.

This paper aims to investigate the airflow that can transport emission sources of PM2.5 from neighboring countries to contribute to air pollution in northern Thailand. We applied the coupled atmospheric and air pollution model which is based on the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) and a Hybrid Single-Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory Model (HYSPLIT). The model output was compared to the ground-based measurement from the Pollution Control Department (PCD) to examine model performance. As a result of model evaluation, the meteorological variables fairly agreed well compared to observation with Index of Agreement (IOA) in ranges of 0.57 to 0.79 for temperature and 0.32 to 0.54 for wind speed, while the fractional bias of temperature and wind speed were 1.3 to 2.5 °C and 1.2 to 2.1 m/s. Burma was a country that contributed much of hotpot locations by 37% of the entire hotspot locations of Southeast Asia in March. The influence of the Asian Monsoon can bring pollutants from neighboring countries such as Burma and Laos toward northern Thailand in March that likely contribute to high concentrations of PM2.5 in northern Thailand.

Indian cities are increasingly becoming susceptible to PM10 induced health effects which have become a matter of concern for the policymakers of the country. Air pollution is engulfing the comparatively smaller cities as the rapid pace of urbanization, and economic development seems not to lose steam ever. A review of air pollution of 28 cities of India, which includes tier-I, II, and III cities of India, found to have grossly violated both WHO and NAAQS standards in respect of acceptable daily average PM10 concentrations by a wide margin. Predicting the city level PM10 concentrations in advance and accordingly initiate prior actions is an acceptable solution to save the city dwellers from PM10 induced health hazards. Predictive ability of three models, linear MLR, nonlinear MLP (ANN), and nonlinear CART, for one day ahead PM10 concentration forecasting of tier-II Guwahati city, were tested with 2016-2018 daily average observed climate data, PM10, and gaseous pollutants. The results show that the non-linear algorithm MLP with feedforward backpropagation network topologies of ANN class, giving the best prediction value when compared with linear MLR and nonlinear CART model. ANN (MLP) approach, therefore, may be useful to effectively derive a predictive understanding of one day ahead PM10 concentration level and thus provide a tool to the policymakers for improving decision-making associated with air pollution and public health.

One of factors causing decline of paleo fauna is related to the hunting activities and the use of tools by early hominin. This study aims to observe the relationships of tools and abundances of mammals in early hominin occupancy in Pawon cave for the period of 6000-9000 year ago (ka). The results show low abundances of medium to large mammals. While obsidian tools numbers were observed high. From 8 to 9 ka there were abrupt reductions and followed with the disappearance of medium-large sized mammals included Tragulidae and Bovidae in 6 ka. Simultaneously, uses of obsidian tools in 8-9 ka were common. The reconstructed paleo climate may contribute to the decline of paleo mammal abundances. The temperatures were increasing from 27 0C in 9 ka to 28 0C in 6 ka. Periods of 6-7 ka were indicated by declines of Bovidae and obsidian tools as well. Nonetheless in these periods, there were increase in numbers of pottery and Suidae remains indicated the transition from hunting-gatherer to sedentary prehistoric life

The main objective of this study is to develop a Hapke photometric model that is suited for Chang’E-1 (CE-1) Interference Imaging Spectrometer (IIM) data. We first divided the moon into three areas including ‘maria’, ‘new highland’ and old ‘highland’ with similar photometry characteristic based on the Hapke parameters of the moon derived from Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter Camera (LROC) Wide Angle Camera (WAC) multispectral data. Then, we selected the sample data in the ‘maria’ area and obtained a new set of Hapke model’s parameters that can best fit these data. Result shows that photometric correction using Hapke model with these new derived parameters can eliminate the effect of variations in viewing and luminating geometry, especially ‘opposition surge’, more efficiently than the empirical model. The corrected mosaic shows no significant artifacts along the tile boundaries, and more detailed information of the image can be exhibited due to a better correction of ‘opposition surge’ at small phase angle (g <15°).

Traditional discrimination techniques for Euler deconvolution use only the color spectrums of structural indexes, without considering the spatial distribution characteristics and inherent relationships among the Euler solutions to separate adjacent causative sources. In the present study, a new approach was developed for discriminating uncorrelated Euler solutions from coherent solutions based on the focusing levels indicated by the probability density distributions generated using multivariate kernel density estimations (KDE). A novel multiple coverage technique was proposed by using a series of different sized moving windows over gridded gravity data, which formed tight clusters of Euler solutions for different sized causative sources. The results of the probability density distributions were obtained using a 3-D KDE method for the Euler solution subsets {x, y, z} of synthetical models, and real data from a survey conducted in British Columbia (Canada) which had successfully established more credible and meaningful geological models when compared with three other subsets.

This paper focuses on the characterization approach to evaluate the decay state of Pietra Serena of historic buildings in Florence (Italy). Pietra Serena is a Florentine sandstone largely used in the city especially during the Renaissance; it is a symbol of cultural heritage of Florence and constitutes a large part of the city center, which was named a World Heritage Site by UNESCO in 1982. Unfortunately, many environmental factors negatively affect the stone, increasing damage and the danger of falling material. Any detachment of stone fragments, in addition to constitute a loss in cultural heritage, can be dangerous for citizens and the many tourists that visit the city. The use of Non-Destructive Techniques (NDTs) as ultrasonic and Schmidt hammer tests can quantitatively define some mechanical properties and help to monitor the decay degree of building stone. In this study, the NDTs were combined with mineralogical, petrographical, chemical and physical analyses to investigate the stone materials, in order to correlate their features with the characteristics of the different artefacts in Pietra Serena. Correlations between the NDTs results and the compositional characteristics of the on-site stone were carried out; such discussion allows to identify zones of weakness and dangerous unstable elements.

The principal minimum horizontal stress plays an important role in the study of reservoir characteristics, modeling of oil and gas reservoir, drilling, production and stimulating wells. However, it is currently not possible to measure the minimum horizontal stress along the wellbore as a geophysical parameter logging. Minimum horizontal stress is measured by leak-off test (LOT) at only several points in a well. In order to have the values all along the wellbore, experimental formulas were established to determine the minimum horizontal stresses for different fields. Then these formulas must be calibrated with LOT data whose number is usually limited, even sometimes unavailable. On the other hand, the empirical formulas of one field might not be accurate for another. This study presents a new approach to solve the problem of minimum horizontal stress estimation by a combination of artificial intelligence and geostatistics. The method consists of using artificial neural network (ANN) to build a model of minimum horizontal stress estimation from relevant parameters such as true vertical depth, pore pressure and vertical stress, then combined with Kriging interpolation to obtain the distribution in space of the minimum horizontal stress. Hence, this method can estimate the minimum horizontal stress with a limited amount of available data and therefore we do not need to drill new wells or to find empirical formulas for each survey area. The method was then applied in a case study involved real geomechanical dataset of Hai Thach - Moc Tinh field in Nam Con Son basin, Vietnam.

Social media data is heavily used to analyze and evaluate situations in times of disasters, and derive decisions for action from it. A cruicial part of the analysis is to avoid unnecessary data retention during that process, in order to prevent subsequent abuse, theft or public exposure of collected datasets and thus, protect the privacy of social media users. There are a number of technical approaches out to face the problem. One of them is using a cardinality estimation algorithm called HyperLogLog to store data in a privacy-aware structure, that can not be used for purposes other than the originally intended. In this case study, we developed and conducted a focus group discussion with teams of social media analysts, in which we identified challenges and opportunities of working with such a privacy-enhanced social media data structure in place of conventional techniques. Our findings show that, with the exception of training scenarios, deploying HyperLogLog in the data acquisiton process will not distract the data analysis process. Instead, it will improve working with huge datasets due to the improved characteristics of the resulting data structure.

The role of Black Carbon (BC) as a contributor to glacial retreat is of particular interest to the scientific community and decision makers, due to its impact on snow albedo and glacier melt. In this study, a thermal-optical instrument (LAHM) was used to measure effective Black Carbon (eBC) in a series of surface snow samples collected from the Vallunaraju glacier, Cordillera Blanca, between April 2019 and May 2020. The time series obtained indicates a marked seasonal variability of eBC with maximum concentrations during the dry season and dramatic decrease during the wet season. The concentrations detected ranged between a minimum of 3.73 ng/g and 4.23 ng/g during the wet season and a maximum of 214.13 ng/g and 181.60 ng/g during the dry season, in the accumulation and ablation zone. Using SNICAR model, the reduction of albedo was estimated at 6.36% and 6.60% during the dry season and 0.68% and 0.95% during the wet season, which represents an average radiative forcing of 4.52 ± 1.84 W/m2 and 4.69 ± 1.59 W/m2 in the accumulation zone, and 0.49 ± 0.27 W/m2 and 0.68 ± 0.43 W/m2 in the ablation zone. The melting of snow due to the eBC translates into 80.18 ± 37.30 kg/m2 and 83.16 ± 32.75 kg/m2 during the dry season, and 7.91 ± 4.29 kg/m2 and 10.85 ± 6.62 kg/m2 during the wet season, in the accumulation and ablation zones, respectively. Finally, the HYSPLIT trajectory assessment shows that aerosols predominate in the Amazon rainforest, especially when forest fires are most abundant according to VIIRS images.

The work safety standardization of enterprises based on the traditional work safety theory has played a significant role in reducing the number of accidents and improving work safety to some extent in China. However, some problems are coming with the work safety standardization of enterprises developing constantly in China. On the one hand, it is not combined with the actual situation of the enterprise, lacking pertinence and specificity, these defects resulted that it is not integrated with original safety production management system of enterprise and make it difficult to carry out. On the other hand, there is a lack of systematic management methods for the work safety management system of enterprise, most of enterprises only pay attention to the inspection result rather than the process control. This means after the check of the government, many enterprises will relax to carry out the system. This paper puts forward a new method for optimizing the standardization management mode of work safety based on the Viable System Model(VSM), which can solve the defects of work safety standardization of enterprises management system. An optimization model of work safety standardization based on VSM was construct for explaining the process optimization and control of work safety standardization management. It can improve the connectivity between the enterprise and the government. The conclusion of this paper can provide reference for achieving the development and optimization of work safety standardization of enterprises in China.

The aim of this research was to test recent developments in the use of Remotely Piloted Aircraft Systems or Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAV) to map pasture biomass yield and nutrient status, across a selected range of field sites throughout the rangelands of Queensland. Improved pasture management begins with an understanding of the state of the resource base, UAV based methods can potentially achieve this at improved spatial and temporal scales. This study developed predictive models of both pasture yield and pasture nutrient status. An automated pasture height surface modelling technique was developed, tested and used along with field site measurements of pasture yields, to predict further estimates across each field site. Both prior knowledge and automated predictive modelling techniques were employed to predict pasture yield and nutrition. Pasture height surface modelling was assessed against field measurements using a rising plate meter, results reported correlation coefficients (R2) ranging from 0.2 to 0.4 for both woodland and grassland field sites. Accuracy of the predictive modelling was determined from further field measurements of pasture yield and on average indicated an error of 0.8 t ha-1 in grasslands and 1.3 t ha-1 in mixed woodlands across both modelling approaches. Correlation analyses between measures of pasture quality, acid detergent fibre and crude protein (ADF, CP), and spectral reflectance data indicated the visible red (651 nm) and red-edge (759 nm) regions were highly correlated (ADF R2 = 0.9 and CP R2 = 0.5 mean values). These findings agreed with previous studies linking specific absorption features with grass chemical composition. These results conclude that the practical application of such techniques, to efficiently and accurately map pasture yield and quality, is possible at the field site scale, however further research is needed, in particular further field sampling of both yield and nutrient elements across such a diverse landscape, with the potential to scale up to a satellite platform for broader scale monitoring.

Microplastics have already been detected in various human foods, especially seafood. This problem should be especially pertinent to the Taiwanese public because a relatively high proportion of people‘s diet comes from seafood. We therefore present a pilot study of microplastic contamination of seafood products commonly consumed by Taiwanese people. We examined six batches of three seafood species for the presence of microplastics using FTIR spectroscopy. A total of 107 seafood individuals from three species (hard clam Meretrix lusoria, oyster Crassostrea gigas, Loligo squid Loliginidae spp.) weighing a total of 994 grams yielded a total of 100 microplastic particles consisting of nine different polymer types. 91% of microplastic particles were fragments which likely originated from fragmented plastic debris which was then consumed by the seafood species. The mean number of microplastics/kg was 87.9 microplastics/kg across the three examined species. Given that Taiwanese average about 10 kg of seafood consumption per year, we estimate that a few thousand microplastic particles are annually consumed on average. The methodology of this pilot study can now be used to conduct examinations of more seafood species and samples.

Soil quality assessment based on crop yields and identification of key indicators of it can be used for better management of agricultural production. In the current research, the weighted additive soil quality index (SQIw), factor analysis (FA) and multiple linear regression (MLR) method are used to assess the soil quality of rainfed winter wheat fields with two soil orders on 53.20 km2 of agricultural land in western Iran. A total of 18 soil quality indicators were determined for 100 soil samples (0-20 cm depth) from two soil orders (Inceptisols and Entisols). The soil properties measured were: pH, soil texture, organic carbon (OC), cation exchange capacity (CEC), electrical conductivity (EC), soil microbial respiration (SMR), carbonate calcium equivalent (CCE), soil porosity (SP), bulk density (BD), exchangeable sodium percentage (ESP), mean weight diameter (MWD), available potassium (AK), total nitrogen (TN), available phosphorus (AP), available Fe (AFe), available Zn (AZn), available Mn (AMn), and available Cu (ACu). Mean wheat grain yield for the two years for all of the 100 sampling sites was also gathered. The SQIw was calculated using two weighting methods (FA and MLR) and maps were created using a digital soil mapping framework. The soil indicators taken in the minimum data set (MDS) were AK, clay, CEC, AP, SMR, and sand. The correlation between the MLR weighting technique (SQI-M) and the rainfed wheat yield (r=0.62) was slightly larger than that the correlation of yield with the FA weighted technique (SQI-F) (r=0.58). Results showed that the means of both SQI-M and SQI-F and rainfed wheat yield for Inceptisols were higher than for Entisols although these differences were not statistically significant. Both SQI-M and SQI-F showed that areas with Entisols had lower proportions of good soil quality grades (Grade I and II), and higher proportions of poor soil quality grades (Grade IV and V) compared to Inceptisols. Based on these results, soil type must be considered for soil quality assessment in future studies to maintain and enhance soil quality and sustainable production. The overall soil quality of the study region was of poor and moderate grades. To improve soil quality, it is therefore recommended that effective practices such as the implementation of scientific integrated nutrient management involving the combined use of organic and inorganic fertilizers in rainfed wheat fields be promoted.

Monitoring drought impacts in forest ecosystems is a complex process, because forest ecosystems are composed of different species with heterogeneous structural compositions. Even though forest drought status is a key control on the carbon cycle, very few indices exist to monitor and predict forest drought stress. The Forest Drought Indicator (ForDRI) is a new monitoring tool developed by the National Drought Mitigation Center (NDMC) to identify forest drought stress. ForDRI integrates 12 types of data, including satellite, climate, evaporative demand, ground water, and soil moisture, into a single hybrid index to estimate tree stress. The model uses Principal Component Analysis (PCA) to determine the contribution of each input variable based on its covariance in the historical records (2003–2017). A 15-year time series of 780 ForDRI maps at a weekly interval were produced. The ForDRI values at a 12.5km spatial resolution were compared with normalized weekly Bowen ratio data, a biophysically based indicator of stress, from nine AmeriFlux sites. There were strong and significant correlations between Bowen ratio data and ForDRI at sites that had experienced intense drought. In addition, tree ring annual increment data at eight sites in four eastern U.S. national parks were compared with ForDRI values at the corresponding sites. The correlation between ForDRI and tree ring increments at the selected eight sites during the summer season ranged between 0.46 and 0.75. Generally, the correlation between the ForDRI and normalized Bowen ratio or tree ring increment are reasonably good and indicate the usefulness of the ForDRI model for estimating drought stress and providing decision support on forest drought management.

Energy-related greenhouse gas emissions dominate the carbon footprints of most product systems, and petroleum is one of the main types of energy sources. This is consumed as a variety of refined products – most notably diesel, petrol (gasoline) and jet fuel (kerosene). Refined product carbon footprints are of great importance to regulators, policymakers and environmental decision-makers. For instance, they are at the heart of legislation such as the European Union’s Renewable Energy Directive or the United States’ Renewable Fuels Standard. This study identified 14 datasets that report footprints for the same system, European petroleum refining. For the main refined products – diesel, petrol and jet fuel – footprints vary by at least a factor of three. For minor products, the variation is even greater. Five different organs of the European Commission have estimated refining footprints: for main products these are relatively harmonic; for minor products much less so. The footprint variation is due mainly to differing approaches to refinery modelling, especially regarding the rationale and methods applied to assign shares of the total burden from the petroleum refinery operation to the individual products. Given the economic/social importance of refined products, a better harmony of their footprints would be valuable to their users.

The assessment of water quality consists of counting bacteria indicating fecal contamination or detecting the presence of pathogenic bacteria using standardized or validated methods of classical microbiology. Our present study aims to determine the bacteriological quality of drilling water in the Tandjilé region of Chad. Our method used was based on qualitative and quantitative research on suspected total coliforms, Echerichia Coli and fecal enterococci were analyzed according to the standard routine methods of the French Association for Normalization (AFNOR). Microbiological analysis shows the presence of indicators of fecal contamination such as total coliforms, Escherichia coli and fecal enterococci. The number of strains detected in 100 ml were E. coli (7 /29 samples), fecal Streptococcus (6 /29 samples) and total coliforms (29/29 samples), respectively from borehole water. The contamination rate of E. coli is 24.13%, total coliforms 100% and 20.68% of fecal enterococci in boreholes. The high number of these microorganisms is more than the values recommended by the WHO for the quality of drinking water. Corrective and urgent measures are needed to improve the quality of these water resources, rich in pathogens, which are health risks, and the causes of infectious diseases such as gastroenteritis, diarrhea, typhoid and skin diseases.

Land Surface Temperature (LST) estimation has been studied for several purposes, while the optimal method of estimating the LST has not been criticized yet. This research explores the optimum method in Land Surface Temperature (LST) estimation using LANDSAT-8 imagery data. Four different LST retrieval approaches, the Radiative Transfer Equation-based method (RTE), the Improved Mono-Window method (IMW), the Generalized Single-Channel method (GSC), and the Split-Window algorithm (SW), were calculated to present the LSTs over Buriram Town Municipality, Thailand. The calculated LSTs from these four methods were compared with the ground-based temperature data, taken on the same date and time of the employed LANDSAT-8 images. For this reason, the optimum method of the LST calculation was justified by considering the lowest normalized root means square error (NRMSE) values. As a result, the SW algorithm presents an optimum method in LST estimation. Regarding the SW, this algorithm requires not only the atmospheric profiles during satellite acquisition but also the retrieval of several coefficients. Besides, the LST retrieval method based on the SW algorithm is sensitive to water vapor content and coefficients. Although the SW algorithm is an optimum method explored in this study, it is emphasized that the adjustable values of coefficient response to the atmospheric state may be recommended. With these conditions, the SW algorithm can generate the land-surface temperature over the mixed land-use and land cover on the LANDSAT-8 images.

Height assignment is an important problem for satellite measurements of Atmospheric Motion Vectors (AMVs) that are interpreted as winds by forecast and assimilation systems. Stereo methods assign heights to AMVs from the parallax observed between observations from different vantage points in orbit while tracking cloud or moisture features. In this paper, we fully develop the stereo method to jointly retrieve wind vectors with their geometric heights from geostationary satellite pairs. Synchronization of observations between observing systems is not required. NASA and NOAA stereo-winds codes have implemented this method and we have processed large datasets from GOES-16, -17, and Himawari-8. Our retrievals are validated against rawinsonde observations and demonstrate the potential to improve forecast skill. Stereo winds also offer an important mitigation for the loop heat pipe anomaly on GOES-17 during times when warm focal plane temperatures cause infra-red channels that are needed for operational height assignments to fail. We also examine several application areas, including deep convection in tropical cyclones, planetary boundary layer dynamics, and fire smoke plumes, where stereo methods provide insights into atmospheric processes. The stereo method is broadly applicable across the geostationary ring where systems offering similar Image Navigation and Registration (INR) performance as GOES-R are deployed.

For more than ten years, Central Chile faces drought conditions, which impact crop production and quality, increasing food security risk. Under this scenario, implementing management practices that allow increasing water use efficiency is urgent. The study was carried out in kiwifruit trees, located in the O’Higgins region, Chile; for season 2018-2019 and 2019-2020. We evaluate nine vegetation indices in the VNIR and SWIR regions derived from Sentinel-2 (A/B) satellites to know how much variability in the canopy water status could explain. Over the study's site were installed sensors that continuously measure the leaf's turgor pressure (Yara Water-Sensor). A strong correlation between turgor pressure and vegetation indices was obtained with the Spearman's rho coefficient ($\rho$). However, the NIR range's indices were influenced by the vegetative development of the crop rather than its water status. Red-edge showed better performance as the vegetative growth did not affect it. It is necessary to expand the study to consider higher variability in kiwifruit's water conditions and incorporate the sensitivity of different wavelengths.

Climate change plays a pivotal role in the hydrology of tributaries in the upper Blue Nile basin. This study was designed to reveal the extent to which climate change impacts on stream flow of the Gumara watershed under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) climate change scenario. The study considered the RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios using the second generation Canadian Earth System Model (CanESM2). The Statistical Downscaling Model (SDSM) was used for calibration and projection of future climatic data of the study area. Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model was used for simulation of the future stream flow of the watershed. Result showed that the average temperature will be increasing by 0.84oC, 2.6oC and 4.1oC in the end of this century under RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios respectively. The change in monthly rainfall amount showed a fluctuating trend in all scenarios but the overall annual rainfall amount is projected to increase by 8.6%, 5.2% and 7.3% in RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, and RCP 8.5 respectively. Overall, this study revealed that, due to climate change, the stream flow of the watershed is found to be increasing by 4.06%, 3.26%, and 3.67% under RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios respectively.

Urban cities in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) are faced with ambient air pollution. This is an important public health problem with models and limited monitoring data indicating high concentrations of pollutants such as fine particulate matter (PM_2.5). Going through most global air quality index maps, however, information about ambient pollution from SSA is scarce. We evaluated the feasibility and practicality of longitudinal measurements of ambient PM_2.5 using low-cost air quality sensors (Purple Air-II-SD) across thirteen locations in seven countries in SSA. Devices were used to gather data over a 30-day period with the aim of assessing the efficiency of its data recovery rate and identifying challenges experienced by users in each location. The median data recovery rate was 94% (range: 72% to 100%). The mean 24-hour concentration measured across all sites was 38 µg/m³ with the highest PM_2.5 period average concentration of 91 µg/m³ measured in Kampala, Uganda and lowest concentrations of 15 µg/m³ measured in Faraja, The Gambia. Kampala-Uganda and Nnewi-Nigeria recorded the longest periods with concentrations>250µg/m³. Power outages, SD memory card issues, internet connectivity problems and device safety concerns were important challenges experienced when using Purple Air-II-SD sensors. Despite some operational challenges, this study demonstrated that it is reasonably practicable and feasible to establish a network of low-cost devices to provide data on local PM_2.5 concentrations in SSA countries. Such data are crucially needed to raise public-, societal and policymaker awareness about air pollution across SSA.

Agricultural intensification is considered essential for meeting growing demand for food and biomass for energy and material purposes. Intensifying grasslands is a so-far under-represented although promising option, given their large land area and relatively low management levels. This study quantifies the bioenergy potential from intensifying temporary grasslands in Europe and the integral greenhouse gas emission effects in 2030. We first conduct a literature review of intensification options for European grasslands and then apply the environmental impact assessment model MITERRA-Europe to implement the key intensification option of using multi-species grass mixtures. The results show that 853 kha (or 8%) of temporary grassland could be made sustainably available for additional biomass production. This can be translated into a bioethanol potential of 23 PJ/yr and an emission mitigation potential of 5.8 Mt CO2-eq/yr (if conventional grass mixture from surplus temporary grassland is used for energy) or 72 PJ/yr and 4.0 Mt CO2-eq/yr (if surplus temporary grassland is used for grassy energy crops). Although the bioenergy potential is limited, the intensification measure’s key advantage is that it results in a better environmental performance of temporary grasslands. This makes it a key option for sustainably producing bioenergy in areas with high shares of temporary grasslands.

In this study, we used statistical models to analyze nonlinear behavior links with atmospheric teleconnections between hydrometeorological variables and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) mode over the East Asia (EA) region. The analysis of atmospheric teleconnections was conducted using principal component analysis and singular spectrum analysis techniques. Moreover, the nonlinear lag-time correlations between climate indices and hydrological variables were calculated using mutual information (MI) techniques. The teleconnection-based nonlinear correlation coefficients (CCs) were higher than the linear CCs in each lag time. Additionally, we documented that the IOD has a direct influence on hydro-meteorological variables, such as precipitation within the Korean Peninsula (KP). Moreover, during the warm season (June to September) the variation of hydro-meteorological variables in the KP demonstrated significantly decreasing patterns during positive IOD years and they have neutral conditions during negative IOD years in comparison with long-term normal conditions. Finally, the revealed relationship between climate indices and hydro-meteorological variables and their possible changes will allow better understanding of stakeholder decision-making regarding to manage of freshwater management over the EA region. It can also provide useful data for long-range water resources prediction, to minimize hydrological uncertainties in a changing climate.

The formation of rock fractures in nature has a certain relationship with water seepage. In order to analyze the shape of rock fracture, we propose a rock deformation theoretical model in three-dimensional space considering with the condition of seepage water pressure, and establish the mass conservation equation, seepage equation, surrounding rock displacement equation, so as to deduce the rock deformation control equation under seepage pressure action. The numerical analysis of the nonlinear quadratic partial differential equation obtains the fracture deformation distribution in the example, and verifies with the calculated fracture morphology. And we further use this principle to analyze the fracture morphology in nature and prove the rationality of the theory.

Based on the theory of turbulence, equations are derived for estimations of turbulent fluctuations of the longitudinal and transverse components of the wind velocity during ideal hovering of a quadcopter in a turbulent atmosphere. We present the results of experiments which were carried out on the territory of the Geophysical Observatory of Institute of Monitoring of Climatic and Ecological Systems, Siberian Branch, Russian Academy of Sciences, located in Tomsk Akademgorodok on the territory with complex orography, in a parkland zone with buildings of research institutes and motorways. Time series of turbulent fluctuations of the longitudinal and transverse components of wind velocity fluctuations were received with the use of an automated weather station, and time series of estimates of these components, from data of a DJI Phantom 4 Pro quadcopter during hovering. According to the automated weather station data, anisotropy was observed in one experiment during measurements in the atmosphere, but this phenomenon was not observed in the other experiment: the fluctuation spectra of all components of wind speed fluctuations coincide. The spectra of fluctuations of the longitudinal and transverse wind velocity components based on the automated weather station data and UAV telemetry are presented. The fluctuation spectra of these components for the automated weather station data and quadcopter generally coincide. The behavior of the spectra coincides with the spectrum which corresponds to Kolmogorov–Obukhov “–5/3” law within the inertial range. The turbulent spectra of the wind velocity fluctuations obtained with the use of the automatic weather station and with the unmanned aerial vehicle differ in the high-frequency spectral region.

We investigated the characteristics of surface wind speeds and temperatures predicted by the local data assimilation and prediction system (LDAPS) operated by the Korean Meteorological Administration. First, we classified automated weather stations (AWSs) into four categories [urban flat (Uf), rural flat (Rf), rural mountainous (Rm), and rural coastal (Rc) terrains] based on the surrounding land cover and topography, and selected 25 AWSs representing each category. Then we calculated the mean bias error of wind speed (WE) and temperature (TE) using AWS observations and LDAPS predictions for the 25 AWSs in each category for a period of 1 year (January–December 2015). We found that LDAPS overestimated wind speed (average WE = 1.26 m s–1) and underestimated temperature (average TE = –0.63°C) at Uf AWSs located on flat terrain in urban areas because it failed to reflect the drag and local heating caused by buildings. At Rf, located on flat terrain in rural areas, LDAPS showed the best performance in predicting surface wind speed and temperature (average WE = 0.42 m s–1, average TE = 0.12°C). In mountainous rural terrain (Rm), WE and TE were strongly correlated with differences between LDAPS and actual altitude. LDAPS underestimated (overestimated) wind speed (temperature) for LDAPS altitudes that were lower than actual altitude, and vice versa. In rural coastal terrain (Rc), LDAPS temperature predictions depended on whether the grid was on land or sea, whereas wind speed did not depend on grid location. LDAPS underestimated temperature at grid points on the sea, with smaller TE obtained for grid points on sea than on land.

Based on the observation and reanalysis data, the relationship between Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) over the Maritime Continent (MC) and the tropical Pacific-Indian Ocean temperature anomaly mode is analyzed. The results showed that the MJO over the MC region (100°-140°E, 10°S-5°N) (referred to as MC-MJO) possesses prominent interannual and interdecadal variations and seasonally "phase-locked" features. MC-MJO is strongest in the boreal winter and weakest in the boreal summer. Winter MC-MJO kinetic energy variation has significant relationships with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in winter and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) in autumn, but it correlates better with the tropical Pacific-Indian Ocean associated mode (PIOAM). The correlation coefficient between the winter MC-MJO kinetic energy index and the autumn PIOAM index is as high as -0.43. This means that when the positive (negative) autumn PIOAM anomaly strengthens, the MJO kinetic energy over the winter MC region weakens (strengthens). However, the correlation between the MC-MJO convection and PIOAM in winter is significantly weaker. The propagation of MJO over the Maritime Continent differs significantly in the contrast phases of PIOAM. During the positive phase of the PIOAM, the eastward propagation of the winter MJO kinetic energy always fails to move across the MC region and cannot enter the western Pacific. However, during the negative phase of the PIOAM, the anomalies of MJO kinetic energy over the MC is not significantly. MJO can propagate farther eastward and enter the western Pacific. One thing must be pointed out that there is a significant difference between the propagation of MJO convection over the MC region in winter and that of the MJO kinetic energy. That said, the MJO convection is more likely to extend to the western Pacific in the positive phases of PIOAM than in the negative phases

Downwind odor characteristics can be very different depending upon the size of the upwind point-source, interim topography, and wind conditions. At one extreme, the downwind odor plume from a relatively large, confined animal feeding operation (CAFO), located on a flat open plain and under stable, near-straight-line wind conditions can be rather broad, sustained and predictable relative to a fixed receptor site downwind. In contrast, the plume from a small point-source (e.g., a roof vent stack) located on irregular topography and under rapidly shifting wind conditions can be intermittent and fleeting. These transient odor events can be surprisingly intense and offensive, in spite of their fleeting occurrence and perception. This work reports on efforts to optimize an environmental odor sampling strategy, which is optimized for the challenges of (1) sampling of such transient odor 'spikes' and (2) the prioritization of odors/odorants from multiple, closely co-located point-sources, under such transient event conditions. Protocol refinement has emerged by way of 2 environmental odor assessment projects which have been undertaken on behalf of the Missouri Department of Natural Resources. The challenge of transient odor events has been mitigated utilizing rapid, odor cued whole-air grab capture sampling into metalized-FEP gas sampling bags, followed by immediate adsorption transfer onto SPME fibers or sorbent tubes for stabilization during the shipment and storage interval between collection and final analysis. Initial results demonstrated approximately 11 fold increases in target odorant yields for 900 mL sorbent tube transfers from 2-3 second 'burst' odor event bag-captures, as compared to equivalent direct collections at the same downwind receptor location but during perceived (stable) odor 'lull' periods. Results-to-date targeting refinement and field trials of this integrated environmental odor assessment strategy are presented. Preliminary application targeting general odor sampling and point-source differentiation utilizing tracer gases is also presented.

We have defined M cycles as modified form of Gleissberg cycles to study the quasi-periodic secular changes in sunspot activity. Using direct and proxy observations for more than 1200 years we have provided evidence for the influence of the above M cyles on the monsoon rainfall variability and occurrences of major droughts in India. The solar cycle averages of All Indian summer monsoon rainfall (AISMR) and probability of observation of below or above normal AISMR is found to show correlated variations with changes in amplitude of sunspot cycles during the years 1901-2018 AD. Major droughts in India show a preference to occur during minima and declining phases of the M cycles during the years 650-2018 AD . We could generally find low probability of occurrence of droughts in India during the medieval solar maximum epoch ( 1100-1250 AD) and during most of the prolonged sunspot minima periods including the Maunder minima. The evolution of mean Indian summer monsoon rainfall during 650-1900 AD is studied using proxy data from multiple sources with maxima during the 12^th century and minima during 14^th and 19^th centuries. The association of Indian droughts with El-Nino and the possibilities of long term prediction of Indian summer monsoon rainfall variability will be also discussed

Climate change and rapid urbanization are adversely affecting the urban environment by exacerbating the widely reported Urban Heat Island effect in Dhaka, Bangladesh. Two wetland areas with variable riparian shadings in the warm-humid conditions of urban Dhaka had been investigated through field campaigns on microclimatic parameters for their cooling potential on the surrounding urban fabric. It was observed that an inversion layer of fully saturated air develops over the water surface of wetland, suppressing evaporation from the wetland water surface layer, which was effectively reducing the heat exchange between the water surface and the air layer above it through its action as an insulating vapor blanket. Because of this effect, the wetland was unable to render as a source of coolth for the surrounding overheated urban area. This effect of the inversion layer was more pronounced in the urban wetland without riparian shading either by urban form or tree canopy. A Multiphysics simulation study conducted on the selected urban wetlands indicates the effect of differential shading pattern on the relation between fetch and inversion layer thickness. This research hypothesizes that the wetland can act as an urban adaption measure against the urban heat island effect by potentially transforming them into Urban Cooling Island (UCI) towards a favorable urban bioclimate.

Ammonia (NH3), the most prevalent alkaline gas in the atmosphere, plays a significant role in PM2.5 formation, atmospheric chemistry, and new particle formation. This paper reviews quantification of [NH3] through measurements, satellite-remote-sensing, and modeling reported in over 500 publications towards synthesizing current knowledge of [NH3], focusing on spatiotemporal variations, controlling processes, and quantification issues. Most measurements are through regional passive sampler networks. [NH3] hotspots are typically over agricultural regions like the Midwest US and North China Plain, with elevated concentrations reaching monthly averages of 20 and 74 ppbv, respectively. Topographical effects dramatically increase [NH3] over the Indo-Gangetic Plains, North India and San Joaquin Valley, US. Measurements are sparse over oceans, where [NH3] ≈ few tens of ppbv, variations of which can affect aerosol formation. Satellite-remote-sensing (AIRS, CrIS, IASI, TANSO-FTS, TES) provides global [NH3] quantification in the column and at surface since 2002. Modeling is crucial for improving understanding of NH3 chemistry and transport, its spatiotemporal variations, source apportionment, exploring physicochemical mechanisms, and predicting future scenarios. GEOS-Chem (global) and FRAME (UK) models are commonly applied for this. A synergistic approach of measurements↔satellite-inference↔modeling is needed towards improved understanding of atmospheric ammonia, of concern from the standpoint of human health and the ecosystem.

The feasibility of a hurricane initialization framework based on the GSI-4DEnVar data assimilation system for the HWRF model is evaluated in this study. The system considers the temporal evolution of error covariances via the use of four-dimensional ensemble perturbations that are provided by high-resolution, self-consistent HWRF ensemble forecasts. It is different from the configuration of the GSI-3DEnVar data assimilation system, similar to that used in the operational HWRF, which employs background error covariances provided by coarser-resolution global ensembles from the NCEP GFS ensemble Kalman filtering data assimilation system. Data assimilation and numerical simulation experiments for Hurricanes Joaquin (2015), Patricia (2015), and Matthew (2016) are conducted during their intensity changes. The impacts of two initialization frameworks on the HWRF analyses and forecasts are compared. It is found that GSI-4DEnVar leads to a reduction in track, MSLP, and MSW forecast errors in all of the HWRF simulations, compared with the GSI-3DEnVar initialization framework. Further diagnoses with Hurricane Joaquin indicate that GSI-4DEnVar can significantly alleviate the imbalances in the initial conditions and enhance the performance of the data assimilation and subsequent hurricane intensity and precipitation forecasts.

Mid-tropospheric cut-off low (COL) pressure systems are linked to severe weather, heavy rainfall and extreme cold conditions over South Africa. They often result in floods and snowfalls in winter disrupting economic activities. This paper examines the evolution and circulation patterns associated with severe COLs over South Africa. We evaluate the performance of the 4.4 km Unified Model (UM) which is currently used operationally by the South African Weather Service to simulate daily rainfall. Circulation variables and precipitation simulated by the UM were compared against ECMWF’s ERA Interim reanalyses and GPM precipitation at 24-hour timesteps. We present five recent (2016-2019) severe COLs that had high impact and found higher model skill when simulating heavy precipitation during the initial stages than the dissipating stages of the systems. A key finding was that the UM underestimated precipitation mainly due to inaccurate placing of COL centers and areas of heavy rainfall by up to 5° of latitude away from the actual location, due to the poor formulating of cumulus and microphysics schemes in the model. Understanding the performance and limitations of the UM model in simulating COL characteristics can benefit severe weather forecasting and contribute to disaster risk reduction in South Africa.

Failaka Island is located 20 kilometers east of the Kuwait mainland. The island includes archaeological sites dating back to the Bronze, Hellenistic, Christian, and Islamic ages. To develop the island as a tourist attraction the state is pursuing a new urban plan based on the island's environmental potential. This study is the basis of the urban plan depends on environmental criteria from the view of Geoarchaeology. The study analysis the land-use and land-cover changes of Failaka Island between 1958- 2018. It provides a topographic survey of the island's coastline and a classification of its geomorphological features and a state of the art identification of its archaeological sites by using a drone to make a terrain model. The study used a medium to high-resolution image analysis of the land-use and land-cover changes: WorldView2-50cm 2010 and 2018; Landsat 8; aerial photography; Drone images and a digital elevation model (DEM), to analysis the expected sea level changes by the end of this century. This study also created a geodatabase of the island that can be adapted for future studies. The results emphasize the importance of preserving the historical and ecological features of the island while developing its infrastructure.

With the rising trends in elderly populations around the world, there is a growing interest in understanding how climate sensitivity is related to their thermal perception. Therefore, we analyzed the associations between mortality in the elderly due to cardiovascular (CVD) and respiratory diseases (RD) and meteorological variables, for three cities in the State of São Paulo, Brazil: Campos do Jordão, Ribeirão Preto and Santos, from 1996 to 2017. We applied the Autoregressive Model Integrated with Moving Average (ARIMA) and the Principal Component Analysis (PCA) in order to evaluate statistical associations. Results showed CVD as a major cause of mortality, particularly in the cold period, when a high mortality rate is also observed due to RD. The mortality rate was higher in Campos do Jordão and lower in Santos (and intermediate values in Ribeirão Preto). Campos do Jordão results indicate an increased probability of mortality from CVD and RD due to lower temperatures. In Ribeirão Preto, the lower relative humidity may be related to the increase in CVD and RD deaths. This study emphasizes that, even among subtropical climates, there are significant differences. Therefore, this can assist decision makers in the implementation of mitigating and adaptive measures.

The South African Weather Service (SAWS) manages an in-situ solar irradiance radiometric network of 13 stations and a very dense sunshine recording network; located in all six macro-climate zones of South Africa. A sparsely distributed radiometric network and over a landscape with dynamic climate and weather shifts is inadequate for solar energy studies and applications. Therefore, there is a need to develop mathematical models to estimate solar irradiation for a multitude of diverse climates. In this study, the annual regression coefficients, a and b, of the Ångström-Prescott (AP) model that can be used to estimate global horizontal irradiance from observed sunshine hours were calibrated and validated with observed station data. The AP regression coefficients were calibrated and validated for each of the six macro-climate zones of South Africa using the observation data that spans 2013 to 2019. The predictive effectiveness of the calibrated AP model coefficients was evaluated by comparing estimated and observed daily global horizontal irradiance. The maximum annual relative Mean Bias Error (rMBE) was 0.371 %, relative Mean Absolute Error (rMAE) was 0.745 %, relative Root Mean Square Error (rRMSE) was 0.910 % and the worst-case correlation coefficient (R2) was 0.910. The statistical validation metrics results show that there is a strong correlation and linear relation between observed and estimated solar radiation values. The AP model coefficients calculated in this study can be used with quantitative confidence in estimating daily GHI data at locations in South Africa where the daily observation sunshine duration data is available.

The coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic caused by spreading rapidly a severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) has imposed a unique situation for the humanity. Sao Paulo has reported 124,105 confirmed cases of COVID-19 and 5,623 deaths up to June 14th, being considered the epicenter of the pandemic in Brazil and in South America. Due to the measures for social distancing, there was a drop in the air pollution concentration in Sao Paulo. Starting on March 16th, 2020, we broke 90 days of social distancing into 13 weeks and compared to an equivalent period in 2019. We investigated the air quality improvement during the quarantine period and compared the associated avoided deaths to COVID-19 burden deaths. Nitrogen dioxide (NO₂) was the best indicator of air quality in the analyzed weeks, since its reduction reached 58 %. Our study showed that the 5,623 deaths occurred during the analyzed weeks of quarantine represents an economic health loss of US$ 10.5 billion. In opposite, we observed a significant air quality improvement due to pollutants concentrations’ reductions during the analyzed weeks. Considering PM₁₀, PM_2.5 and NO₂, the decrease of concentration levels respectively avoided 78, 337 and 387 premature deaths and prevented up to US$ 1.5 billion on health costs. These results highlight the importance of continuing to enforce existing air pollution regulations and measures to protect human health both during and after COVID-19 pandemic.

The availability of high quality surface observations of precipitation and volume observations by polarimetric operational radars make it possible to constrain, evaluate and validate numerical models with a wide variety of microphysical schemes. In this article, a novel particle-based Monte-Carlo microphysical model (called “McSnow”) is used to simulate the outer rain bands of Hurricane Dorian which traversed the densely instrumented precipitation research facility operated by NASA at Wallops Island, Virginia. The rain bands showed steady stratiform vertical profiles with radar signature of dendritic growth layers near −15 °C and peak reflectivity in the bright band of 55 dBZ along with polarimetric signatures of wet snow with sizes inferred to exceed 15 mm. A 2D-video disdrometer measured frequent occurrences of large drops &gt;5 mm and combined with an optical array probe the drop size distribution was well-documented in spite of uncertainty for drops &lt;0.5 mm due to high wind gusts and turbulence. The 1D McSnow control run and four numerical “experiments” were conducted and compared with observations. One of the main findings is that even at the moderate rain rate of 10 mm/h collisional breakup is essential for the shape of the drop size distribution.

The Geostationary Environment Monitoring Spectrometer (GEMS) onboard the Geostationary Korean Multi-Purpose Satellite 2B was successfully launched in February 2020. GEMS is a hyperspectral spectrometer measuring solar irradiance and Earth radiance in the range of 300 to 500 nm. This paper introduces the spectral calibration algorithm for GEMS, which uses a nonlinear least-squares approach. To assess the performance of the algorithm, sensitivity tests for a series of spectral parameters such as shift, spectral range for fitting, signal-to-noise ratio, spectral response function (SRF), and reference spectrum have been conducted. To improve the assessment, a synthetic GEMS spectrum using the prelaunch GEMS SRF is adopted here. The test results show that the required accuracy (0.002 nm) is achievable for the expected uncertainties of the parameters except for the SRF and the choice of high-resolution reference spectrum, which degrade the algorithm performance by an order magnitude. To mitigate the sensitivity to SRF, retrieval of in-orbit SRF using an analytic function is suggested. Finally, a few candidates for the high-resolution solar reference spectrum are prepared for testing by the instrument during in-orbit tests.

The mass concentration of particulate matter (PM) has been systematically used in epidemiological studies as exposure indicator, to relate airborne concentrations with a wide variety of human health effects, which can be hardly explained by using this single parameter. In fact, PM is a “particle cocktail” that includes a complex mixture of compounds with a wide range of sizes, chemical compositions and emission sources. Current research hypothesizes that many of the adverse health effects are derived from oxidative stress in biological systems caused by the deposition of PM into the lungs. This emerging hypothesis is called the oxidative stress paradigm. In this commentary article we analize how this new paradigm could help to answer the as-of-yet unanswered questions related to the mechanism of action of PM pollution on human health. Acellular oxidative potential (OP) assays have been emerged as a promising approach to quantify the PM potential to induce oxidative stress and to relate it with the chemical composition and size distribution of PM. Recent researches have shown that the OP is related to the presence of metals, organic carbon, polyaromatic hydrocarbons and quinones. However, the association between PM and particle-induced toxicity is still largely unknown. Therefore, additional research is needed to identify the specific PM characteristic(s), such as its specific size, emission source or chemical content, which contribute the most to its redox activity. Thus, the OP measurements provide information that allows us to evaluate and integrate the toxic potential of PM in a unique parameter, whose relationships with emission sources, size distribution and/or chemical composition should be faced in the near future.

The boundary layer height (BLH) distinguishes the interface between the lower and free atmosphere, which is a key variable in numerical simulation, aerosol, and environmental pollution studies. Thus, the goal of this work is to propose a novel method conjuncting with numerical regularization to analyze climate characteristics of the marine boundary layer height (MBLH) using 2007-2011 GPS-RO data from the COSMIC mission. While traditionally, the difference method has been used to achieve this aim, herein, we propose an innovative method, in which the bending angle profile gradient was calculated using the numerical regulation method where the regulation parameters are determined by the double-parameter model function method. Then, the MBLH was determined by employing the maximum gradient method to ascertain the height corresponding to the smallest gradient. The results show a correlation between currents and the MBLH—a relationship that has not been previously demonstrated. A low MBLH is associated with seasons and regions where cold ocean currents are prevailing; whereas a high MBLH is observed in the seasons and places where warm currents are prevailing. This correlation was validated by comparing the obtained results with different occultation data—i.e., atmprf and echprf—which also established that atmprf is more sensitive to convective cloud top capture. In seas with active convection, the armprf calculated bending angle is higher than that from echprf. Subsequently, the standard deviation was used to express the MBLH confidence level. The results show that the MBLH standard deviation is highest in low latitudes and lowest in the middle and high latitudes. Furthermore, we analyzed the interannual MBLH variation trend, which displayed a seasonal variation and spatial distribution corresponding with the current and subsolar point. Finally, we conducted a case study in the South China Sea, and identified a distinctive seasonal change and downward trend.

In-cloud ice mass accretion on wind turbines is a common challenge faced by energy companies operating in cold climates. On-shore wind farms in Scandinavia are often located in regions near patches of forest, the heterogeneity length scales of which are often less than the resolution of many numerical weather prediction (NWP) models. The representation of these forests--including the cloud water response to surface roughness and albedo effects related to them--must therefore be parameterized in NWP models used as meteorological input in ice prediction systems, resulting in an uncertainty that is poorly understood and to present date not quantified. The sensitivity of ice accretion forecasts to the subgrid representation of forests is examined in this study. A single column version of the HARMONIE-AROME 3D NWP model is used to determine the sensitivity of the forecast of ice accretion on wind turbines to the subgrid forest fraction. Single column simulations of a variety of icing cases at a location in northern Sweden were examined in order to investigate the impact of vegetation cover on ice accretion in varying levels of solar insulation and wind magnitudes. In mid-winter cases, the wind speed response to surface roughness was the primary driver of the vegetation effect on ice accretion. In early season cases, the cloud water response to surface albedo effects plays a secondary role in the impact of in-cloud ice accretion, with the wind response to surface roughness remaining the primary driver for the surface vegetation impact on icing. Two different surface boundary layer (SBL) forest canopy subgrid parameterizations were tested in this study that feature different methods for calculating near-surface profiles of wind, temperature, and moisture, with the ice mass accretion again following the wind response to surface vegetation between both of these schemes.

The world witnessed one of the largest lockdowns in the history of mankind ever, spread over months in an attempt to contain the contact spreading of the novel coronavirus induced COVID-19. As billions around the world stood witness to the staggered lockdown measures, a storm brewed up in the urns of the rather hot Bay of Bengal (BoB) in the Indian Ocean realm. When Thailand proposed the name “Amphan” (pronounced as “Um-pun” meaning ‘the sky’), way back in 2004, little did they realize that it was the christening of the 1st super cyclone (Category-5 hurricane) of the century in this region and the strongest on the globe this year. At the peak, Amphan clocked wind speeds of 168 mph (Joint Typhoon Warning Center) with the pressure drop to 925 h.Pa. What started as a depression in the southeast BoB at 00 UTC on 16th May 2020 developed into a Super Cyclone in less than 48 hours and finally made landfall in the evening hours of 20th May 2020 through the Sundarbans between West Bengal and Bangladesh. Did the impact of the COVID-19 induced lockdown drive an otherwise typical pre-monsoon tropical depression into a super cyclone?

The non-secular anomalies in carbon dioxide measurements at Mauna Loa are compared to the non-secular anomalies in the HadCRUT4 median global temperature from 1991 to 2020. A strong and significant Pearson's product-moment correlation is found between carbon dioxide anomalies and global temperature anomaly, indicating that the correlation is an actual characteristic of the atmosphere. But more important from a numerical weather prediction perspective, this result indicates that carbon dioxide anomalies can have no skills as temperature precursors on short time scales.

Background: There are major air pollution monitoring gaps in sub-Saharan Africa. Developing capacity in the region to conduct air monitoring in the region can help estimate exposure to air pollution for epidemiology research. The purpose of our study is to develop a land use regression (LUR) model using low-cost air quality sensors developed by a research group in Uganda (AirQo). Methods: Using these low-cost sensors, we collected continuous measurements of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) between May 1, 2019 and February 29, 2020 at 22 monitoring sites across urban municipalities of Uganda. We compared average monthly PM2.5 concentrations from the AirQo sensors with measurements from a BAM-1020 reference monitor operated at the US Embassy in Kampala. Monthly PM2.5 concentrations were used for LUR modeling. We used eight Machine Learning (ML) algorithms and ensemble modeling; using 10-fold cross validation and root mean squared error (RMSE) to evaluate model performance. Results: Monthly PM2.5 concentration was 60.2 µg/m³ (IQR: 45.4-73.0 µg/m³; median= 57.5 µg/m³). For the ML LUR models, RMSE values ranged between 5.43 µg/m³ - 15.43 µg/m³ and explained between 28% and 92% of monthly PM2.5 variability. Generalized additive models explained the largest amount of PM2.5 variability (R²=0.92) and produced the lowest RMSE (5.43 µg/m³) in the held-out test set. The most important predictors of monthly PM2.5 concentrations included monthly precipitation, major roadway density, population density, latitude, greenness, and percentage of households using solid fuels. Conclusion: To our knowledge, ours is the first study to model the spatial distribution of urban air pollution in sub-Saharan Africa using air monitors developed from the region itself. Non-parametric ML for LUR modeling performed with high accuracy for prediction of monthly PM2.5 levels. Our analysis suggests that locally produced low-cost air quality sensors can help build capacity to conduct air pollution epidemiology research in the region.

Users of meteorological forecasts are often faced with the question of whether to make a decision now based on the current forecast or whether to wait for the next and hopefully more accurate forecast before making the decision. One would imagine that the answer to this question should depend on the extent to which there is a benefit in making the decision now rather than later, combined with an understanding of how the skill of the forecast improves, and information about the possible size and nature of forecast changes. We extend the well-known cost-loss model for forecast-based decision making to capture an idealized version of this situation. We find that within this extended cost-loss model, the question of whether to decide now or wait depends on two specific aspects of the forecast, both of which involve probabilities of probabilities. For the special case of weather and climate forecasts in the form of normal distributions we derive a simulation algorithm, and equivalent analytical expressions, for calculating these two probabilities. We apply the algorithm to forecasts of temperature and find that the algorithm leads to better decisions relative to three simpler alternative decision-making schemes. Similar problems have been studied in many other fields, and we explore some of the connections.

There is a lot of discussion underway with conflicting opinions examining the airborne nature of the SARS-CoV2 virus. Surprisingly, important phenomena prevalent with respect to aerosols (suspended droplets) have not been considered. In this Technical Note, we propose a methodology for the coupling of aerosol phenomena (such as evaporation, particle transport accounting for drag) to accurately establish the lifetimes of the droplets. A characteristic time analysis illustrates the time scales for evaporation and settling: for example, the characteristic time for evaporation of a 10 µm droplet is 0.036 s at a relative humidity of 25%; compared to a settling time of about 500 s. For any particle smaller than ~ 100 µm, the evaporation of the emitted or exhaled droplet has to be considered. Coupling evaporation of the droplet as it settles, we estimate the horizontal distance traversed. Trajectories of a 10 µm and 100 µm particle emitted with a typical initial velocity of release associated with coughing and sneezing indicates the greater spread in the horizontal direction when evaporation is accounted for. The life time of the 10 µm particle increases from 8.3 min to 12 hours (will be intercepted prior and the actual airborne time will then be shorter); and for a 100 µm particle from 4.9 s to 39.4 s.

This article investigates whether the weather has any role in terms of spread and vulnerability of COVID-19 and how that knowledge can be used to arrest this fast spreading disease. It highlights that temperature and humidity both are important for transmitting the virus- temperature being the stronger factor. A dry, cool environment is the most favourable state for the spread of the virus. In fact, high temperature environment significantly reduces the risk from the virus. Warm places and countries are likely to be less vulnerable. Only regulating temperature level can provide drastic results to stop and arrest the outbreak. Some urgent solutions are proposed based on that knowledge. The novelty of such approach is- it can be applied overnight and implemented immediately across the globe. It is very cost effective and practically without side effects. No vast amount of funding is required to adopt these solutions. Apart from existing guidelines, these additional measures are likely to reduce the spread of the disease dramatically. Following the scientific discussion, such solutions may be thought of implementing worldwide, especially to vulnerable countries, as an emergency basis.

In recent years, marine, freshwater and terrestrial pollution with microplastics has been discussed extensively, whereas atmospheric microplastic transport has been largely overlooked. Here, we present the first global simulation of atmospheric transport of microplastic particles produced by road traffic (TWPs – tire wear particles and BWPs – brake wear particles), a major source that can be quantified relatively well. We find a high transport efficiency of these particles to remote regions, such as the Arctic Ocean (14%). About 34% of the emitted coarse TWPs and 30% of the emitted coarse BWPs (100 kt yr^-1 and 40 kt yr^-1 respectively) were deposited in the World Ocean. These amounts are of similar magnitude as the total estimated terrestrial and riverine transport of TWPs and fibres to the ocean (64 kt yr^-1). Atmospheric transport of microplastics is thus an underestimated threat to global terrestrial and marine ecosystems and affects air quality on a global scale, especially considering that other large but highly uncertain emissions of microplastics to the atmosphere exist. High latitudes and the Arctic are highlighted as an important receptor of mid-latitude emissions of road microplastics, which may imply a future climatic risk, considering their affinity to absorb solar radiation and accelerate melting.

Precipitation and temperature are significant inputs for hydrological models. Currently, many satellite and reanalysis precipitation and air temperature datasets exist at different spatio-temporal resolutions at a global and quasi-global scale. This study evaluated the performances of three open-access precipitation datasets (gauge-adjusted research-grade Global Satellite Mapping of Precipitation (GSMaP_Gauge), Climate Hazards Group Infrared Precipitation with Station data (CHIRPS), Climate Forecast System Reanalysis(CFSR)) and CFSR air temperature dataset in driving the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model required for the monthly simulation of streamflow in the upper Shiyang River Basin of northwest China. After a thorough comparison of six model scenarios with different combinations of precipitation and air temperature inputs, the following conclusions were drawn: (1) Although the precipitation products had similar spatial patterns, however, CFSR differs significantly by showing an overestimation; (2) CFSR air temperature yielded almost identical performance in the streamflow simulation than the measured air temperature from gauge stations; (3) among the three open-access precipitation datasets, CHIRPS produced the best performance. These results suggested that the CHIRPS precipitation and CFSR air temperature datasets which are available at high spatial resolution (0.05), could be a promising alternative open-access data source for streamflow simulation in the case of limited access to desirable gauge data in the data-scarce area.

Available water resources in the Middle East, as one of the most water-scarce regions of the world, have undergone extra pressure due to climatic change, population growth, and economic development during the past decades. The objective of this study is to detect the trends and quantify the changes in aridity with respect to precipitation and potential evapotranspiration in 20 countries of the Middle East and the adjacent area. A Pixel-wised trend analysis was conducted on precipitation, potential evapotranspiration, and aridity index for 71 years from 1948 to 2018. A nonparametric Mann-Kendall test was used over 14106 points in the study area to detect the trends at monthly and annual time scales. Results showed statistically significant (|Z| >1.96) upward trends in aridity (a downward trend in aridity index) up to 96 percent from December through September in most parts of the region. Aridity in October and November had a downward tendency in most parts of the study area. At the annual time scale, 62.5 percent of the statistically significant trends in aridity were found to be upward (up to 96 percent increase in aridity) due to the combined effects of the decrease in precipitation and the increase in potential evapotranspiration and 37.5 percent of the detected trends were downward (up to 61 percent decrease in aridity). The highest and the lowest trends in aridity were found in the north of Sudan (96 percent increase in aridity) and Eastern Arabia (61 percent decrease in aridity), respectively.

Sufficient evidence is currently available to demonstrate the reality of the warming of our planet's climate system. Global warming has different effects on climate at the regional and local levels. The detection of changes in extreme events using instrumental data provides further evidence of such warming and allows for the characterization of its local manifestations. The present study analyzes changes in temperature and precipitation extremes in the Mexican state of Zacatecas using climate change indices developed by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection, Monitoring and Indices (ETCCDI). We studied a 40-year period (1976-2015) using annual and seasonal time scales. Maximum and minimum temperature data were used, as well as precipitation statistics from the Mexican climatology database (CLICOM) provided by the Mexican meteorological service. Weather stations with at least 80% of data availability for the selected study period were selected; these databases were subjected to quality control, homogenization, and data filling using Climatol, which runs in the R programming language. These homogenized series were used to obtain daily grides of the three variables at a resolution of 1.3 km. Results reveal important changes in temperature-related indices, such as the increase in maximum temperature and the decrease in minimum temperature. Irregular variability was observed in the case of precipitation, which could be associated with low-frequency oscillations such as the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and the El Niño–Southern Oscillation. The possible impact of these changes in temperature and the increased irregularity of precipitation could have a negative impact on the agricultural sector, especially given that the state of Zacatecas is the largest national bean producer. The most important problems in the short term will be related to the difficulty of adapting to these rapid changes and the new climate scenario, which will pose new challenges in the future.

Soil temperature reflects the impact of local factors，such as vegetation，soil and the atmosphere of a region. Therefore, it is important to understand the regional variation of soil temperature. However, lack of observations with adequate spatial and/or temporal coverage, it would be difficult to use the observation data to study the regional variation. Based on the observation data from Nanchang and Ganzhou stations and ERA-Interim/Land reanalysis data, this study analyzed the temporal-spatial distribution characteristics of soil temperature over Poyang Lake Basin. The results showed close correlations between observation data and reanalysis data at different depths. Reanalysis data could mainly reproduce the temporal-spatial distributions of soil temperature over the Poyang Lake Basin, but generally underestimate their magnitudes. Temporally, there is an obvious warming trend in the basin. Seasonally, the temperature raised fastest in spring and slowest in summer, except for the ST4, which rising fastest in spring and slowest in winter. In terms of depths, the temperature of ST1 rises fastest. For the other layers, the warming trend is almost similar. An abrupt change of annual soil temperature at all depths occurred in 1997, and annual soil temperatures at all depths were abnormally low in 1984. Spatially, annual soil temperature decreased with latitude, except for the summer ST1. Because of the high temperature and precipitation in summer, the ST1 are higher around the lake and the river. The climatic trend of soil temperature presents the general increase trend from south to north, opposite to the distribution of soil temperature. The findings provide a basis for understanding and assessing the variation of the soil temperature over the Poyang Lake Basin.

This paper examines the diurnal cycle of convection (DCC) over Lake Titicaca Basin (LTb) during summertime months based on the high spatial resolution (8 x 8 km2) and hourly temporal resolution, estimates of Climate Prediction Center Morphing technique (CMORPH). Analysis was performed using observed data from rain gauges (Rg-SENAMHI) for the period 2002 to 2013. Graphical comparisons and several statistical metrics such as correlation coefficient, bias, and root mean square error were used to evaluate CMORPH product. Spatial maps and graphic metrics of diurnal cycle were developed to assess CMORPH data, spatial dependency an accuracy over the LTb. Approximately, 43% of the total Rg-SENAMHI variation is explained CMORPH data. The correlation between Rg-SENAMHI and CMORPH is positively over southeast and northern LTb, and negatively in the central and southern LTb. A underestimation bias is observed over most the LTb areas and overestimation bias (e.g., Lagunillas, Isla Suana and Desaguadero stations). In general, spatial patterns of rainfall over the LTb were captured through CMORPH data. Over the surrounding lake area, high mountain, and plateau area, maximum peaks of precipitation occur in the early evening, neverhtheless over low areas such as the lake, surrounding and valleys, maximum precipitation values occur early morning. The results show that DCC its very related by surface exchange processes and local circulation resulting from solar radiation and heterogeneous topography.

In this work, a semi-empirical relationship of carbon dioxide emissions with atmospheric CO₂ concentrations has been developed that is capable of closely replicating observations from 1751 to 2018. The correlation consists of a superposition of a linear component that may be attributed to the net emission flux from land use changes coupled with a rapidly varying component of the terrestrial sink combined with a fossil-fuel combustion/cement production emissions-based calculation with a single, fixed, scaling parameter determined by the ocean sink coupled with the remaining slowly varying component of the land sink (the fossil-fuel combustion airborne fraction).

This study aims to investigate the Stratosphere-Troposphere Exchange (STE) events and ozone trends over Irene (25.5°S, 28.1°E). Twelve years of ozonesondes data (2000–2007, 2012–2015) from Irene station operating in the framework of the Southern Hemisphere Additional Ozonesodes (SHADOZ) was used to study the troposphere (0–16 km) and stratosphere (17– 28 km) ozone (O₃) vertical profiles. Ozone profiles were grouped into three categories (2000–2003, 2004–2007 and 2012–2015) and average composites were calculated for each category. Fifteen O₃ enhancement events were identified over the study period. These events were observed in all seasons (one event in summer, four events in autumn, five events in winter and five events in spring), however, they predominantly occur in winter and spring. The STE events presented here are observed to be influenced by the Southern Hemisphere polar vortex. During the STE events, the advected potential vorticity maps assimilated using Modélisation Isentrope du transport Méso–échelle de l’Ozone Stratosphérique par Advection (MIMOSA) model for the 350 K (~12–13 km) isentropic level indicated a transport of high latitude air masses which seems to be responsible for the reduction of the O₃ mole fractions at the lower stratosphere over Irene which takes place at the same time with the enhancement of ozone in the upper troposphere. In general, the stratosphere is dominated by higher Modern Retrospective Analysis for Research Application (MERRA-2) potential vorticity (PV) values compared to the troposphere. However, during the STE events, higher PV values from the stratosphere were observed to intrude the troposphere. Ozone decline was observed from 12 km to 24 km with highest decline occurring from 14 km to 18 km. An average decrease of 6.0 and 9.1% was calculated from 12 to 24 km in 2004–2007 and 2012–2015 respectively. The observed decline occurred in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere with winter and spring showing more decline compared with summer and autumn.

Users of meteorological forecasts are often faced with the question of whether to make a decision now based on the current forecast or wait for the next and hopefully more accurate forecast before making the decision. One would imagine that the answer to this question should depend on the extent to which there is a benefit in making the decision now rather than later, combined with an understanding of how the skill of the forecast improves, and information about the possible size and nature of forecast changes. We extend the well-known cost-loss model for forecast-based decision making to capture an idealized version of this situation. We find that within this extended cost-loss model, the question of whether to decide now or wait depends on two specific aspects of the forecast, both of which involve probabilities of probabilities. We derive an algorithm for calculating these two probabilities for the case of normally distributed weather or climate forecasts and apply it to a series of synthetic weather forecasts of temperature. We find that the algorithm leads to better decisions relative to three simpler alternative decision-making schemes.

Studies on the detection of layers with elevated black carbon aerosol (BC) concentrations and the formation conditions of these layers help understand the vertical distribution of BC concentrations, which will provide a basis for the assessment of climate effects and early BC pollution warnings. By using the Weather Research and Forecasting with Chemistry (WRF-Chem) numerical model, we performed a numerical simulation analysis on the authenticity of strong elevated BC concentration layers that were detected by an aircraft in the mixing layer over Harbin, China, which is a high-emission area, on a clear sunny afternoon in the early heating period of 2016. We then discuss possible problems and solutions when non-vertical paths are used to detect the vertical distribution of BC concentrations. Finally, we discuss the favorable conditions for the formation of elevated BC concentration layers by weak vertical flow. The results show that the horizontal variability of BC concentration in the mixing layer in the observation area in Harbin was sufficiently large during the measurement. This produced a false elevated layer, as detected by the aircraft during one round of spiral flight in the mixing layer. The root mean square of the horizontal distribution of BC concentration did not change with height in the mixing layer during the daytime, but it decreased with the thickness of the mixing layer and was higher in the mixing layer than in the free atmosphere. Therefore, the thinner the mixing layer, in which the vertical distribution of the BC concentration is detected in an inclined path, the stronger interference of the horizontal variability on the detected results. When a spiral flight detection path is used, the aircraft should fly at least two rounds in the mixing layer. In the daytime, due to strong turbulence in the mixing layer, weak vertical uplift is not favorable for the occurrence of elevated BC concentration layers in the mixing layer. In the nighttime, if weak vertical uplift is well matched with the BC concentration or its vertical gradient, elevated BC concentration layers can be formed in the atmosphere. Compared with upper layers far from the ground, nighttime elevated layers are easier to form in lower layers near the ground because high BC concentrations or large vertical gradients are more likely to occur in the lower layers. Both cases facilitate the occurrence of large vertical upward transport rates of BC.

Floods and droughts are driven, in part, by spatial patterns of extreme rainfall. Heat waves are driven by spatial patterns of extreme temperature. It is therefore of interest to design statistical methodologies that allow the identification of likely patterns of extreme rain or temperature from observed historical data. The standard work-horse for identifying patterns of climate variability in historical data is Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and its variants. But PCA optimizes for variance not spatial extremes, and so there is no particular reason why the first PCA spatial pattern should identify, or even approximate, the types of patterns that may drive these phenomena, even if the linear assumptions underlying PCA are correct. We present an alternative pattern identification algorithm that makes the same linear assumptions as PCA, but which can be used to explicitly optimize for spatial extremes. We call the method Directional Component Analysis (DCA), since it involves introducing a preferred direction, or metric, such as `sum of all points in the spatial field'. We compare the first PCA and DCA spatial patterns for US rainfall anomalies on a 6 month timescale, using the sum metric for the definition of DCA in order to focus on total rainfall anomaly over the domain, and find that they are somewhat different. The definitions of PCA and DCA result in the first PCA spatial pattern having the larger explained variance of the two patterns, while the first DCA spatial pattern, when scaled appropriately, has a higher likelihood and greater total rainfall anomaly, and indeed is the pattern with the highest total rainfall anomaly for any given likelihood. In combination these two patterns yield more insight into rainfall variability and extremes than either pattern on its own.

Floods and droughts are driven, in part, by patterns of extreme rainfall. Heat waves are driven, in part, by patterns of extreme temperature. The standard work-horse for understanding patterns of climate variability is Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and its variants. But PCA does not optimize for spatial extremes, and so there is no particular reason why the first PCA pattern should identify, or even approximate, the types of patterns that may drive these phenomena, even if the linear assumptions underlying PCA are correct. We present an alternative pattern identification algorithm that makes the same linear assumptions as PCA, but which can be used to explicitly optimize for spatial extremes. We call the method Directional Component Analysis (DCA), since it involves introducing a preferred direction, or metric, such as `sum of all points in the field'. We compare the first PCA and DCA patterns for US rainfall on a 6 month timescale, using the sum metric for the definition of DCA, and find that they are somewhat different. The definitions of PCA and DCA mean that the first PCA pattern has the larger explained variance of the two, while the first DCA pattern, when scaled appropriately, is both more likely and captures more rainfall. In combination these two patterns yield more insight into rainfall variability than either pattern on its own.

New data on the climate in southern Spain from 1792 to 1808 are analyzed in this work. The data source is the newspaper Correo Mercantil de España y sus Indias, where summaries of the weather conditions in Spain were published at weekly resolution. The study is focused on southern provinces, providing 2788 new records, some of them corresponding to areas without data previously recorded. The analysis indicates the predominance of cold-dry winters, cold-wet springs, warm-dry summers, and variable conditions in autumn, from west (cold-wet) to east (warm-dry). Some examples of these situations are presented.

This work examines drought and wet events based on Standardized Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) over Kenya from 1981 to 2016. Spatiotemporal analysis of dry and wet events is conducted for 3 and 12-month SPEI. The drought incidences were observed during the period 1984, 1987, 2000, 2006, 2009, 2015, and 2016 for SPEI-3 whilst the SPEI-12 demonstrated the manifestation of drought during the year 2000 and 2006. SPEI clearly shows that the wettest period, 1997 and 1998 that coincide with the El Nino event in both time steps. SPEI -3 shows a reduction in moderate drought events while severe and extreme cases were on increase towards the end of the twentieth century. Conversely, SPEI-12 depicts an overall increase in severe drought occurrence over the study location with observed intensity of -1.54 and cumulative frequency of 64 months during the study period. The trend of wet events is upwards in the western and central highlands while the rest of the regions show increase in dry events during the study period. Moreover, moderate dry/wet events predominate whilst extreme events occur least frequent across all grid cells. It is apparent that the study area experiences mild extreme dry events in both categories although moderately severe dry events dominate most parts of the study area. High intensity and frequency of drought is noted in SPEI-3 while least occurrences of extreme events are recorded in SPEI-12. Although drought event prevails across the study area, there is evidence of extreme flood conditions over the recent decades. These findings form a good basis for next step of research that will look at projection of droughts over the study area based on regional climate models.

Precipitation is a crucial driver for many environmental processes and weather radars are capable of providing precipitation information with high spatial and temporal resolution. However, radar-based quantitative precipitation estimates (QPE) are also subject to various potential uncertainties. This study explores the development, uncertainties and potentials of the hourly operational German radar-based and gauge-adjusted QPE called RADOLAN and its reanalysed radar climatology dataset named RADKLIM in comparison to ground-truth rain gauge data. The precipitation datasets are statistically analysed across various time scales ranging from annual and seasonal aggregations to hourly rainfall intensities in regard to their capability to map long-term precipitation distribution, to detect low intensity rainfall and to capture heavy rainfall. Moreover, the impacts of season, orography and distance from the radar on long-term precipitation sums are examined in order to evaluate dataset performance and to describe inherent biases. Results revealed that both radar products tend to underestimate total precipitation sums and particularly high intensity rainfall. But our analyses also showed significant improvements throughout the RADOLAN time series as well as major advances through the climatologic reanalysis regarding the correction of typical radar artefacts, orographic and winter precipitation as well as range-dependent attenuation.

The direct radiative effect of aerosols is taken into account in many limited area numerical weather prediction models using wavelength-dependent aerosol optical depths of a range of aerosol species. We study the impact of aerosol distribution and optical properties on radiative transfer, based on climatological and more realistic near real-time aerosol data. Sensitivity tests were carried out using the single column version of the ALADIN-HIRLAM numerical weather prediction system, set up to use the HLRADIA broadband radiation scheme. The tests were restricted to clear-sky cases to avoid the complication of cloud-radiation-aerosol interactions. The largest differences in radiative fluxes and heating rates were found to be due to different aerosol loads. When the loads are large, the radiative fluxes and heating rates are sensitive to the aerosol inherent optical properties and vertical distribution of the aerosol species. Impacts of aerosols on shortwave radiation dominate longwave impacts. Sensitivity experiments indicated the important effects of highly absorbing black carbon aerosols and strongly scattering desert dust.

The mass composition of Particulate Matter (PM) with an aerodynamic diameter of 2.5 microns (PM2.5) in San Joaquin Valley (SJV) is dominated by ammonium nitrate (NH4NO3) which is a secondary pollutant. The goal of this research was the investigation of the relationship between emissions, meteorology and PM2.5 concentrations in Fresno for the winter season. It was found that the location of sites near emission sources such as freeways compared with residential sites strongly affected measured PM2.5 concentrations. It was found that although long-term trends showed declines in both emissions and PM2.5 concentrations there was substantial variability between the years in the PM2.5/emissions relationship. Much of the yearly variation in the relationship between emissions and PM2.5 concentrations can be attributed to yearly variations in weather, such as atmospheric stability, precipitation frequency and average wind speed. There are moderate correlations between PM2.5 concentrations and temperature differences between nearby surface stations at varying elevations which explains some of the daily and seasonal variation in PM2.5. Occurrence of precipitation was related to low PM¬2.5 although the higher wind speeds and lower atmospheric stability associated with precipitation likely explain some of the low PM2.5 as well as washout of PM.

Accurate assessment and projections of extreme climate events requires the use of climate datasets with no or minimal error. This study uses quantile mapping bias correction (QMBC) method to correct the bias of five Regional Climate Models (RCMs) from the latest output of Rossby Climate Model Center (RCA4) over Kenya, East Africa. The outputs were validated using various scalar metrics such as Root Mean Square Difference (RMSD), Mean Absolute Error (MAE) and mean Bias. The study found that the QMBC algorithm demonstrate varying performance among the models in the study domain. The results show that most of the models exhibit significant improvement after corrections at seasonal and annual timescales. Specifically, the European community Earth-System (EC-EARTH) and Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization (CSIRO) models depict exemplary improvement as compared to other models. On the contrary, the Institute Pierre Simon Laplace Model CM5A-MR (IPSL-CM5A-MR) model show little improvement across various timescales (i.e. March-April-May (MAM) and October-November-December (OND)). The projections forced with bias corrected historical simulations tallied observed values demonstrate satisfactory simulations as compared to the uncorrected RCMs output models. This study has demonstrated that using QMBC on outputs from RCA4 is an important intermediate step to improve climate data prior to performing any regional impact analysis. The corrected models can be used for projections of drought and flood extreme events over the study area. This study analysis is crucial from the sustainable planning for adaptation and mitigation of climate change and disaster risk reduction perspective.

This work examines drought and pluvial events based on Standardized Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) over Kenya from 1981 to 2016. Spatiotemporal analysis of dry and wet events is conducted for 3 and 12-month SPEI. The drought incidences were observed during the period 1984, 1987, 2000, 2006, 2009, 2015, and 2016 for SPEI-3 whilst the SPEI-12 demonstrated the manifestation of drought during the year 2000 and 2006. SPEI clearly shows the wettest period, 1997 and 1998 coinciding with the El Nino event in both time steps. SPEI -3 shows a reduction in moderate drought events while severe and extreme cases were on increase towards the end of the twentieth century. Conversely, SPEI-12 depicts an overall severe drought occurrence over the study location with observed intensity of -1.54 and cumulative frequency of 64 months during the study period. The trend of wet events is upwards in the western and central highlands while the rest of the regions show increase in dry events during the study period. Moreover, moderate dry/wet events predominate whilst extreme events occur least frequent across all grid cells. It is apparent that the study area experiences mild extreme dry events in both categories although moderately severe dry events dominate most parts of the study area. High intensity and frequency of drought is noted in SPEI-3 while least occurrences of extreme events are recorded in SPEI-12. Although drought event prevails across the study area, there is evidence of extreme flood conditions over the recent decades.

As one of GEO-constellation for environmental monitoring in the next decade, Geostationary Environment Monitoring Spectrometer (GEMS) is designed to observe the Asia Pacific region to provide the information on the atmospheric chemicals, aerosol and cloud properties. For the continuous monitoring of the sensor performance after its launch in early 2020, here we suggest deep convective clouds (DCCs) as a possible target for the vicarious calibration of GEMS, the first UV/VIS hyperspectral sensor onboard a geostationary satellite. Tropospheric Monitoring Instrument (TROPOMI) and Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) are used as a proxy of GEMS, and a conventional DCC detection approach applying the thermal threshold test is used for the DCC detection based on the collocations with Advance Himawari-8 Imager (AHI) onboard Himawari-8 geostationary satellite. DCCs are frequently detected over the GEMS observation area on average over 200 pixels in a single observation scene. Considering the spatial resolution of GEMS, 3.5 km×7 km which is similar to TROPOMI, and its temporal resolution (8 times a day), availability of DCCs for vicarious calibration of GEMS is expected to be sufficient. Inspection of the DCC reflectivity spectra estimated from the OMI and TROPOMI data also shows a promising result. Even though, their observation geometry and sensor characteristics are quite a different, the estimated DCC spectra agree quite a well within a known uncertainty range with comparable spectral features. When the DCC detection is further improved by applying both visible and infrared tests, the variability of DCC reflectivity from the TROPOMI data is reduced by half, from 10% to 5%. This is mainly due to the efficient screening of cold thin cirrus with the visible test and of bright warm clouds with the infrared test. The precise DCC detection is also expected to contribute to the accurate characterization of the cloud reflectivity, which will be further investigated.

This study analyses uncertainties associated with the main features of the annual cycle of West African rainfall (amplitude, timing, duration) in 15 CMIP5 simulations over the Sahelian and Guinean regions with satellite daily precipitation estimates. The annual cycle of indices based on daily rainfall such as the frequency and the intensity of wet days, the consecutive dry (CDD) and wet days (CWD), the 95th percentile of daily rainfall (R95) have been assessed. Over both regions, satellite datasets provide more consistent results on the annual cycle of monthly precipitation than on higher-frequency rainfall indices, especially over the Guinean region. CMIP5 simulations display much higher uncertainties in both the mean precipitation climatology and higher-frequency indices. Over both regions, most of them overestimate the frequency of wet days. Over the Guinean region, the difficulty of models to represent the bimodality of the annual cycle of precipitation involves systematic biases the frequency of wet days. Likewise, we found strong uncertainties in the simulation of the CWD and the CDD over both areas. Finally, models generally provide too early (late) onset dates over the Sahel (the Guinean region) and overestimate rainfall during the early and late monsoon phases. These errors are strongly coupled errors in the latitudinal position of the ITCZ and do not compensate at the annual scale nor when considering West Africa as a whole. wet days. We found strong uncertainties in the simulation of the CWD and he CDD over both areas. Conversely for R95p and R95PTOT, the ncertainties in CMIP5 models appear somewhat weaker, but the magnitude f R95 is largely underestimated in most models.

In the present paper, a measure of the influence of irregularities of the underlying surface (for instance, the real terrain profile) on the dynamics of air flow is estimated. It is shown that these irregularities significantly perturbing the pressure, density, velocity and temperature of air flow; for perturbed pressure, density, velocity and temperature of air flow the closed formulas in the Fourier integral form are obtained. In addition, in the present paper, it is proved that due to these perturbations, at a certain altitude of the atmosphere some surface of the "sturdy wall" form appears, on which the vertical and horizontal components of the air flow velocity become infinitesimal and infinitely large, respectively.

The development of extremely powerful thunderstorm which took place on August 19, 2015 is discussed in this paper. High depth hail cloud originated on the Black Sea Coast and classified as a supercell as well as several weaker hailstorms passed more than 1000 km over Northern Caucasus of Russia, the Caspian Sea, and then invaded the territory of Kazakhstan. During more than 20 hours of existence this supercell produced heavy hail, rain, intense lightning discharges, gust and tornado which rarely occurs in the region. The study of the structure and characteristics of the thunderstorm during the formation of electrical discharges and their frequency were of particular interest. According to the forecast, development of convective clouds and separate thunderstorms were expected, though the powerful hail process was not expected due to small vertical temperature gradients and the absence of cold fronts. Supercell was tracked by 5 radars located in this area, which showed its right-hand development with clock-wise deviation from the leading stream on 40-50 degrees to the right and the resulting speed of propagation was about 60-85km/h. The maximum reflectivity factor exceeded value 75dBZ, top of the clouds reached 15-16km and the height of the hail core raised on 11.2km. The size of hailstones size on most of the hail path was 2–3cm, and at the peak of cloud development - 4–5cm. Maximum frequencies of cloud-to-ground flashes of negative and positive polarities reached 30-35min-1 and 60-70min-1 correspondingly, while frequency of cloud-to-cloud flashes was significantly higher and amounted up to 300-500min-1 at the peak of the supercell development. An important fact is that the maximum frequency of flashes of different types coincided in time, showing that the reason of all discharges is similar. Total current of the cloud-to-ground flashes of positive and negative polarities was almost identical in magnitude and differed by sign. It was 200-300 kiloampere at the peak of thunderstorm development. The minimum value of radiation temperature, measured by SEVIRI radiometer installed onboard of Meteosat-10 satellite in 10.8 μm channel, was near to -60ºC. The minimum temperature value on the top of the supercell was comparable to coupled radar and sounding data. The most intensive precipitation flux derived from radiometric measurements was about 22000m3/sec; at the same period radars assessments showed precipitation up to 550mm/h (mixed phase precipitation) and size of hail 4.5cm. The combined satellite-radar-lightning data analysis showed that radar derived characteristics of the supercell reached their maximums earlier than maximum in lightning activity. The highest correlation coefficient between radar and lightning characteristics of the supercell storm was found for pair maximum reflectivity and intensity of LF (0.55) and VHF (0.66) discharges. Estimations of relationship between hail size and lightning activity showed that with increasing hail size, thunderstorm activity increases for both cloud-to-ground and intracloud flashes (on the level 0.46 - 0.59). Analysis of doppler-polarimetric data showed strong inflow zone associated with tornado. Tornadic debris signature was manifested by radar reflectivity factor ZH > 60 dBZ, differential reflectivity ZDR > -1 dB, copolar cross-correlation coefficient ρHV < 0.6, and it was collocated with the tornado vortex signature. Doppler velocities in mesocyclone zone reached values -43 and +63 m/s. Prominent radar echo hook was identified in 1.5 km layer above the ground, while ZDR columns was relatively narrow (4–8 km wide) and not very deep (4.5 km).

This study was conducted in a laboratory-controlled environment aiming at studying the physical properties and elemental composition of coal combustion particles in a brazier. Particles were sampled ~1 m above the stove using a partector, where particles were collected on gold Transmission Electron Microscopy (TEM) grids and polycarbonate filters for TEM and inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry (ICP-MS) analysis, respectively. Particles for elemental analysis collected on a 37 µm polycarbonate filters whereby a Gillian pump was used to draw in air. During sampling, a 2.5 µm cyclone was attached to the sampling cassette to isolate larger particles. The results have shown that combustion particles emitted during the early stage of combustion where single spherical particles with a diameter of around 450 nm. As the combustion progresses, the particle diameter gradually decreases and the morphology changes to accretion chain and fluffy bead structure for the flaming and char-burning phase, respectively.

Review of the existing bibliography shows that the direction and magnitude of the long-term trends of UV irradiance, and their main drivers, vary significantly throughout Europe. Analysis of total ozone and spectral UV data recorded at four European stations during 1996 – 2017 reveals that long-term changes in UV are mainly driven by changes in aerosols, cloudiness, and surface albedo, while changes in total ozone play a less significant role. The variability of UV irradiance is large throughout Italy due to the complex topography and large latitudinal extension of the country. Analysis of the spectral UV records of the urban site of Rome, and the alpine site of Aosta reveals that differences between the two sites follow the annual cycle of the differences in cloudiness and surface albedo. Comparisons between the noon UV index measured at the ground at the same stations and the corresponding estimates from the DWD forecast model and OMI/Aura observations reveal differences of up to 6 units between individual measurements, which are likely due to the different spatial resolution of the different datasets, and average differences of 0.5 – 1 unit, possibly related to the use of climatological surface albedo and aerosol optical properties in the retrieval algorithms.

To explore the characteristics of the concentric eyewall of a typhoon during its formation and replacement processes, with Super Typhoon Muifa in 2011 as the example case, the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) mode was used to carry out a numerical simulation to reproduce the entire formation and replacement processes of the concentric eyewall. The physical quantities such as the tangential wind speed, radar echo, radial wind speed, vertical wind speed, and potential vortex were diagnosed and analyzed. The results of the analysis show that the outward expansion of the isovelocity in the lower troposphere was the early signal of the formation of the outer eyewall. After the outer eyewall formed, there was a center of second-highest tangential wind speed in the corresponding area. The second-highest wind speed increased as the strength of the outer eyewall increased, and the position of the second-highest wind speed center was retracted with the retraction of the outer eyewall. The tangential wind speed of the moat area was smaller than that corresponding to the concentric eyewall and this feature gradually disappeared with the increase of the height. The echo in the moat area was weak, and this characteristic was particularly evident when the moat area was relatively wide and the outer eyewall was relatively strong. With the formation and development of the outer eyewall, the intensity of the inflow in the boundary layer corresponding to the inner eyewall was reduced, the intensity of the outflow in the upper layers declined, and the intensities of the inflow and outflow corresponding to the outer eyewall were enhanced. After the second outer eyewall matured, there was a significant inflow in the upper layer of the moat area. Once the outer eyewall formed, a large amount of hydrometeors appeared in the corresponding area, and there was a strong ascending motion inside that area. The strength of the ascending motion and the content of hydrometeors increased as the outer eyewall increased. When the moat area was relatively wide, the divergent airflow generated by the developed outer eyewall in the upper layer would produce a significant descending motion in the moat area.

Alkali-containing submicron particles were measured continuously during three months, including late winter and spring seasons in Gothenburg, Sweden. The overall aims were to characterize the ambient concentrations of combustion-related aerosol particles and to address the importance of local emissions and long-range transport for the atmospheric concentrations in the urban background environment. K and Na concentrations in the PM1 size range were measured by an alkali aerosol mass spectrometer (Alkali-AMS) and a cluster analysis was conducted. Local meteorological conditions and some other data sets were obtained, and back trajectory analyses and chemical transport model (CTM) simulations were included for the evaluation. The Alkali-AMS cluster analysis indicated three major clusters: 1) biomass burning origin, 2) mixture of other combustion sources, and 3) marine origin. Low temperatures and low wind speed conditions correlated with high concentrations of K-containing particles, mainly due to regional emissions from residential biomass combustion; transport of air masses from continental Europe also contribute to cluster 1. The CTM results indicate that open biomass burning in the eastern parts of Europe may have contributed substantially to high PM2.5 concentrations (and to cluster 1) during an episode in late March. According to the CTM results the mixed cluster (2) is likely to include particles emitted from different source types and no single geographical source region seems to dominate for this cluster. The back trajectory analysis and meteorological conditions indicated that the marine origin cluster was correlated with westerly winds and high wind speed; this cluster had high concentrations of Na-containing particles, as expected for sea salt particles.

We examine the role of zonal Ekman transport along the coast of Senegal on 30 August, 2015 when the tropical disturbance associated with Tropical Cyclone Fred was located to the west of Senegal causing considerable coastal damage to coastal areas south of Dakar, Senegal. Ten-meter winds from three Weather Research and Forecast model simulations were used to estimate zonal Ekman transport, with the largest values found during the 30 August. The simulations are in agreement with limited coastal observations showing increasing southerly wind speeds during 30 August but are overestimated relative to the 3 coastal stations. The strong meridional winds translate into increased zonal Ekman transport to the coast of Senegal on 30 August. The use of a coupled ocean model will improve the estimates of Ekman transport along the Guinea-Senegalese coast. The observed damage suggests that artificial and natural barriers (mangroves) should be strengthened to protect coastal communities in Senegal.

Observing air quality from sensors onboard light rail cars in Salt Lake County, Utah began as a pilot study in 2014 and has now evolved into a five-year state-funded program. This metropolitan region suffers from both elevated ozone levels during summer and high PM2.5 events during winter. Pollution episodes result predominantly from local anthropogenic emissions but are also impacted by regional transport of dust, chemical precursors to ozone, and wildfire smoke as well as being exacerbated by the topographical features surrounding the city. Two electric light-rail train cars from the Utah Transit Authority light-rail Transit Express (“TRAX”) system were outfitted with PM2.5 and ozone sensors to measure air quality at high spatial and temporal resolution in this region. Pollutant concentration data underwent quality control procedures to determine whether the train motion affected the readings and how the sensors compared against regulatory sensors. Quality assurance results from data obtained over the past year show that TRAX Observation Project sensors are reliable, which corroborates earlier preliminary validation work. Two case studies from summer 2019 are presented to illustrate the strength of the finely-resolved air quality observations: 1) an elevated ozone event and 2) elevated particulate pollution resulting from 4th of July fireworks. The mobile observations were able to capture spatial gradients as well as pollutant hotspots during both of these episodes. Sensors have been recently added to a third light rail train car, which travels on a north-south oriented rail line along which we were unable to monitor air quality previously. The TRAX Observation Project is currently being used to provide reliable pollutant data for health studies and inform urban planning efforts. Links to real-time data displays and updated information on the quality-controlled data from this study are available at https://atmos.utah.edu/air_quality/trax/.

On January 8, 2005, a surface melt event began on the interior portion of Ross Ice Shelf. While many surface melt events on Ross Ice Shelf are caused by the advection of warm air onto the shelf from the Ross Sea, surface winds during this event were directed offshore and the spatial pattern of surface melt was inconsistent with the Southern Ocean serving as a heat source. Rather, due to the interior location of the surface melt coupled with prevailing wind direction and surface temperature data it is thought that adiabatic warming of Föhn winds is the driving cause of this melt event. Passive Microwave (SSM/I) imagery was used to determine surface melt occurrence and the event’s extent. Spatial patterns of surface melt were then compared to NCEP/NCAR reanalysis output for several synoptic weather variables including surface temperatures, sea level pressure and surface vector winds. Synoptic-scale weather conditions were consistent with those that would produce downsloping wind (föhn) conditions in the interior of the Ross Ice Shelf where the anomalous surface melt was located.

Tropical storm Nate, which was a powerful hurricane prior to landfall along the Alabama coast, traversed north towards our instrumented site in Hunstville, AL. The rain bands lasted 18 h and the 2D-video disdrometer (2DVD) captured the event which was shallow and indicative of pure warm rain processes. Measurements of raindrop size, shape and velocity distributions are quite rare in pure warm rain and are expected to differ from cold rain processes. In particular, asymmetric shapes due to drop oscillations and their impact on polarimetric radar signatures in warm rain have not been studied so far. Recently, the 2DVD data has been used for 3D reconstruction of asymmetric raindrop shapes but their fraction (relative to the more common oblate shapes) in warm rain has yet to be ascertained. Here we compute the scattering matrix drop-by-drop using Computer Simulation Technology integral equation solver for drop sizes>2.5 mm. From the scattering matrix elements, the polarimetric radar observables are simulated by integrating over 1 minute consecutive segments of the event. These simulated values are compared with dual-polarized C-band radar data located at 15 km range from the 2DVD site to evaluate the contribution of the asymmetric drop shapes.

The modern era of polarimetric radar begins with radiowave propagation research starting in the early 1970s with applications to measurement and modeling of wave attenuation in rain and depolarization due to ice particles along satellite-earth links. While there is a rich history of radar in meteorology after World War II, the impetus provided by radiowave propagation requirements lead to high quality antennas and feeds. Our journey starts by describing the key institutions and personnel responsible for development of weather radar polarimetry. The early period was dominated by circularly polarized radars for propagation research and at S-band for hail detection. By the mid-to late 70s, a paradigm shift occurred which led to the dominance of linear polarizations with applications to slant path attenuation prediction as well as estimation of rain rates and inferences of precipitation physics. The period from early 1980s to 1995 can be considered as the “golden” period of rapid research that brought in meteorologists, cloud physicists and hydrologists. This article describes the evolution of this technology from the vantage point of the authors. Their personal reflections and “behind the scenes” descriptions offer a glimpse into the inner workings at several key institutions which cannot be found elsewhere.