The direct radiative effect of aerosols is taken into account in many limited area numerical weather prediction models using wavelength-dependent aerosol optical depths of a range of aerosol species. We study the impact of aerosol distribution and optical properties on radiative transfer, based on climatological and more realistic near real-time aerosol data. Sensitivity tests were carried out using the single column version of the ALADIN-HIRLAM numerical weather prediction system, set up to use the HLRADIA broadband radiation scheme. The tests were restricted to clear-sky cases to avoid the complication of cloud-radiation-aerosol interactions. The largest differences in radiative fluxes and heating rates were found to be due to different aerosol loads. When the loads are large, the radiative fluxes and heating rates are sensitive to the aerosol inherent optical properties and vertical distribution of the aerosol species. Impacts of aerosols on shortwave radiation dominate longwave impacts. Sensitivity experiments indicated the important effects of highly absorbing black carbon aerosols and strongly scattering desert dust.

The mass composition of Particulate Matter (PM) with an aerodynamic diameter of 2.5 microns (PM2.5) in San Joaquin Valley (SJV) is dominated by ammonium nitrate (NH4NO3) which is a secondary pollutant. The goal of this research was the investigation of the relationship between emissions, meteorology and PM2.5 concentrations in Fresno for the winter season. It was found that the location of sites near emission sources such as freeways compared with residential sites strongly affected measured PM2.5 concentrations. It was found that although long-term trends showed declines in both emissions and PM2.5 concentrations there was substantial variability between the years in the PM2.5/emissions relationship. Much of the yearly variation in the relationship between emissions and PM2.5 concentrations can be attributed to yearly variations in weather, such as atmospheric stability, precipitation frequency and average wind speed. There are moderate correlations between PM2.5 concentrations and temperature differences between nearby surface stations at varying elevations which explains some of the daily and seasonal variation in PM2.5. Occurrence of precipitation was related to low PM¬2.5 although the higher wind speeds and lower atmospheric stability associated with precipitation likely explain some of the low PM2.5 as well as washout of PM.

Accurate assessment and projections of extreme climate events requires the use of climate datasets with no or minimal error. This study uses quantile mapping bias correction (QMBC) method to correct the bias of five Regional Climate Models (RCMs) from the latest output of Rossby Climate Model Center (RCA4) over Kenya, East Africa. The outputs were validated using various scalar metrics such as Root Mean Square Difference (RMSD), Mean Absolute Error (MAE) and mean Bias. The study found that the QMBC algorithm demonstrate varying performance among the models in the study domain. The results show that most of the models exhibit significant improvement after corrections at seasonal and annual timescales. Specifically, the European community Earth-System (EC-EARTH) and Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization (CSIRO) models depict exemplary improvement as compared to other models. On the contrary, the Institute Pierre Simon Laplace Model CM5A-MR (IPSL-CM5A-MR) model show little improvement across various timescales (i.e. March-April-May (MAM) and October-November-December (OND)). The projections forced with bias corrected historical simulations tallied observed values demonstrate satisfactory simulations as compared to the uncorrected RCMs output models. This study has demonstrated that using QMBC on outputs from RCA4 is an important intermediate step to improve climate data prior to performing any regional impact analysis. The corrected models can be used for projections of drought and flood extreme events over the study area. This study analysis is crucial from the sustainable planning for adaptation and mitigation of climate change and disaster risk reduction perspective.

This work examines drought and pluvial events based on Standardized Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) over Kenya from 1981 to 2016. Spatiotemporal analysis of dry and wet events is conducted for 3 and 12-month SPEI. The drought incidences were observed during the period 1984, 1987, 2000, 2006, 2009, 2015, and 2016 for SPEI-3 whilst the SPEI-12 demonstrated the manifestation of drought during the year 2000 and 2006. SPEI clearly shows the wettest period, 1997 and 1998 coinciding with the El Nino event in both time steps. SPEI -3 shows a reduction in moderate drought events while severe and extreme cases were on increase towards the end of the twentieth century. Conversely, SPEI-12 depicts an overall severe drought occurrence over the study location with observed intensity of -1.54 and cumulative frequency of 64 months during the study period. The trend of wet events is upwards in the western and central highlands while the rest of the regions show increase in dry events during the study period. Moreover, moderate dry/wet events predominate whilst extreme events occur least frequent across all grid cells. It is apparent that the study area experiences mild extreme dry events in both categories although moderately severe dry events dominate most parts of the study area. High intensity and frequency of drought is noted in SPEI-3 while least occurrences of extreme events are recorded in SPEI-12. Although drought event prevails across the study area, there is evidence of extreme flood conditions over the recent decades.

As one of GEO-constellation for environmental monitoring in the next decade, Geostationary Environment Monitoring Spectrometer (GEMS) is designed to observe the Asia Pacific region to provide the information on the atmospheric chemicals, aerosol and cloud properties. For the continuous monitoring of the sensor performance after its launch in early 2020, here we suggest deep convective clouds (DCCs) as a possible target for the vicarious calibration of GEMS, the first UV/VIS hyperspectral sensor onboard a geostationary satellite. Tropospheric Monitoring Instrument (TROPOMI) and Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) are used as a proxy of GEMS, and a conventional DCC detection approach applying the thermal threshold test is used for the DCC detection based on the collocations with Advance Himawari-8 Imager (AHI) onboard Himawari-8 geostationary satellite. DCCs are frequently detected over the GEMS observation area on average over 200 pixels in a single observation scene. Considering the spatial resolution of GEMS, 3.5 km×7 km which is similar to TROPOMI, and its temporal resolution (8 times a day), availability of DCCs for vicarious calibration of GEMS is expected to be sufficient. Inspection of the DCC reflectivity spectra estimated from the OMI and TROPOMI data also shows a promising result. Even though, their observation geometry and sensor characteristics are quite a different, the estimated DCC spectra agree quite a well within a known uncertainty range with comparable spectral features. When the DCC detection is further improved by applying both visible and infrared tests, the variability of DCC reflectivity from the TROPOMI data is reduced by half, from 10% to 5%. This is mainly due to the efficient screening of cold thin cirrus with the visible test and of bright warm clouds with the infrared test. The precise DCC detection is also expected to contribute to the accurate characterization of the cloud reflectivity, which will be further investigated.

This study analyses uncertainties associated with the main features of the annual cycle of West African rainfall (amplitude, timing, duration) in 15 CMIP5 simulations over the Sahelian and Guinean regions with satellite daily precipitation estimates. The annual cycle of indices based on daily rainfall such as the frequency and the intensity of wet days, the consecutive dry (CDD) and wet days (CWD), the 95th percentile of daily rainfall (R95) have been assessed. Over both regions, satellite datasets provide more consistent results on the annual cycle of monthly precipitation than on higher-frequency rainfall indices, especially over the Guinean region. CMIP5 simulations display much higher uncertainties in both the mean precipitation climatology and higher-frequency indices. Over both regions, most of them overestimate the frequency of wet days. Over the Guinean region, the difficulty of models to represent the bimodality of the annual cycle of precipitation involves systematic biases the frequency of wet days. Likewise, we found strong uncertainties in the simulation of the CWD and the CDD over both areas. Finally, models generally provide too early (late) onset dates over the Sahel (the Guinean region) and overestimate rainfall during the early and late monsoon phases. These errors are strongly coupled errors in the latitudinal position of the ITCZ and do not compensate at the annual scale nor when considering West Africa as a whole. wet days. We found strong uncertainties in the simulation of the CWD and he CDD over both areas. Conversely for R95p and R95PTOT, the ncertainties in CMIP5 models appear somewhat weaker, but the magnitude f R95 is largely underestimated in most models.

In the present paper, a measure of the influence of irregularities of the underlying surface (for instance, the real terrain profile) on the dynamics of air flow is estimated. It is shown that these irregularities significantly perturbing the pressure, density, velocity and temperature of air flow; for perturbed pressure, density, velocity and temperature of air flow the closed formulas in the Fourier integral form are obtained. In addition, in the present paper, it is proved that due to these perturbations, at a certain altitude of the atmosphere some surface of the "sturdy wall" form appears, on which the vertical and horizontal components of the air flow velocity become infinitesimal and infinitely large, respectively.

The development of extremely powerful thunderstorm which took place on August 19, 2015 is discussed in this paper. High depth hail cloud originated on the Black Sea Coast and classified as a supercell as well as several weaker hailstorms passed more than 1000 km over Northern Caucasus of Russia, the Caspian Sea, and then invaded the territory of Kazakhstan. During more than 20 hours of existence this supercell produced heavy hail, rain, intense lightning discharges, gust and tornado which rarely occurs in the region. The study of the structure and characteristics of the thunderstorm during the formation of electrical discharges and their frequency were of particular interest. According to the forecast, development of convective clouds and separate thunderstorms were expected, though the powerful hail process was not expected due to small vertical temperature gradients and the absence of cold fronts. Supercell was tracked by 5 radars located in this area, which showed its right-hand development with clock-wise deviation from the leading stream on 40-50 degrees to the right and the resulting speed of propagation was about 60-85km/h. The maximum reflectivity factor exceeded value 75dBZ, top of the clouds reached 15-16km and the height of the hail core raised on 11.2km. The size of hailstones size on most of the hail path was 2–3cm, and at the peak of cloud development - 4–5cm. Maximum frequencies of cloud-to-ground flashes of negative and positive polarities reached 30-35min-1 and 60-70min-1 correspondingly, while frequency of cloud-to-cloud flashes was significantly higher and amounted up to 300-500min-1 at the peak of the supercell development. An important fact is that the maximum frequency of flashes of different types coincided in time, showing that the reason of all discharges is similar. Total current of the cloud-to-ground flashes of positive and negative polarities was almost identical in magnitude and differed by sign. It was 200-300 kiloampere at the peak of thunderstorm development. The minimum value of radiation temperature, measured by SEVIRI radiometer installed onboard of Meteosat-10 satellite in 10.8 μm channel, was near to -60ºC. The minimum temperature value on the top of the supercell was comparable to coupled radar and sounding data. The most intensive precipitation flux derived from radiometric measurements was about 22000m3/sec; at the same period radars assessments showed precipitation up to 550mm/h (mixed phase precipitation) and size of hail 4.5cm. The combined satellite-radar-lightning data analysis showed that radar derived characteristics of the supercell reached their maximums earlier than maximum in lightning activity. The highest correlation coefficient between radar and lightning characteristics of the supercell storm was found for pair maximum reflectivity and intensity of LF (0.55) and VHF (0.66) discharges. Estimations of relationship between hail size and lightning activity showed that with increasing hail size, thunderstorm activity increases for both cloud-to-ground and intracloud flashes (on the level 0.46 - 0.59). Analysis of doppler-polarimetric data showed strong inflow zone associated with tornado. Tornadic debris signature was manifested by radar reflectivity factor ZH > 60 dBZ, differential reflectivity ZDR > -1 dB, copolar cross-correlation coefficient ρHV < 0.6, and it was collocated with the tornado vortex signature. Doppler velocities in mesocyclone zone reached values -43 and +63 m/s. Prominent radar echo hook was identified in 1.5 km layer above the ground, while ZDR columns was relatively narrow (4–8 km wide) and not very deep (4.5 km).

This study was conducted in a laboratory-controlled environment aiming at studying the physical properties and elemental composition of coal combustion particles in a brazier. Particles were sampled ~1 m above the stove using a partector, where particles were collected on gold Transmission Electron Microscopy (TEM) grids and polycarbonate filters for TEM and inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry (ICP-MS) analysis, respectively. Particles for elemental analysis collected on a 37 µm polycarbonate filters whereby a Gillian pump was used to draw in air. During sampling, a 2.5 µm cyclone was attached to the sampling cassette to isolate larger particles. The results have shown that combustion particles emitted during the early stage of combustion where single spherical particles with a diameter of around 450 nm. As the combustion progresses, the particle diameter gradually decreases and the morphology changes to accretion chain and fluffy bead structure for the flaming and char-burning phase, respectively.

Review of the existing bibliography shows that the direction and magnitude of the long-term trends of UV irradiance, and their main drivers, vary significantly throughout Europe. Analysis of total ozone and spectral UV data recorded at four European stations during 1996 – 2017 reveals that long-term changes in UV are mainly driven by changes in aerosols, cloudiness, and surface albedo, while changes in total ozone play a less significant role. The variability of UV irradiance is large throughout Italy due to the complex topography and large latitudinal extension of the country. Analysis of the spectral UV records of the urban site of Rome, and the alpine site of Aosta reveals that differences between the two sites follow the annual cycle of the differences in cloudiness and surface albedo. Comparisons between the noon UV index measured at the ground at the same stations and the corresponding estimates from the DWD forecast model and OMI/Aura observations reveal differences of up to 6 units between individual measurements, which are likely due to the different spatial resolution of the different datasets, and average differences of 0.5 – 1 unit, possibly related to the use of climatological surface albedo and aerosol optical properties in the retrieval algorithms.

To explore the characteristics of the concentric eyewall of a typhoon during its formation and replacement processes, with Super Typhoon Muifa in 2011 as the example case, the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) mode was used to carry out a numerical simulation to reproduce the entire formation and replacement processes of the concentric eyewall. The physical quantities such as the tangential wind speed, radar echo, radial wind speed, vertical wind speed, and potential vortex were diagnosed and analyzed. The results of the analysis show that the outward expansion of the isovelocity in the lower troposphere was the early signal of the formation of the outer eyewall. After the outer eyewall formed, there was a center of second-highest tangential wind speed in the corresponding area. The second-highest wind speed increased as the strength of the outer eyewall increased, and the position of the second-highest wind speed center was retracted with the retraction of the outer eyewall. The tangential wind speed of the moat area was smaller than that corresponding to the concentric eyewall and this feature gradually disappeared with the increase of the height. The echo in the moat area was weak, and this characteristic was particularly evident when the moat area was relatively wide and the outer eyewall was relatively strong. With the formation and development of the outer eyewall, the intensity of the inflow in the boundary layer corresponding to the inner eyewall was reduced, the intensity of the outflow in the upper layers declined, and the intensities of the inflow and outflow corresponding to the outer eyewall were enhanced. After the second outer eyewall matured, there was a significant inflow in the upper layer of the moat area. Once the outer eyewall formed, a large amount of hydrometeors appeared in the corresponding area, and there was a strong ascending motion inside that area. The strength of the ascending motion and the content of hydrometeors increased as the outer eyewall increased. When the moat area was relatively wide, the divergent airflow generated by the developed outer eyewall in the upper layer would produce a significant descending motion in the moat area.

Alkali-containing submicron particles were measured continuously during three months, including late winter and spring seasons in Gothenburg, Sweden. The overall aims were to characterize the ambient concentrations of combustion-related aerosol particles and to address the importance of local emissions and long-range transport for the atmospheric concentrations in the urban background environment. K and Na concentrations in the PM1 size range were measured by an alkali aerosol mass spectrometer (Alkali-AMS) and a cluster analysis was conducted. Local meteorological conditions and some other data sets were obtained, and back trajectory analyses and chemical transport model (CTM) simulations were included for the evaluation. The Alkali-AMS cluster analysis indicated three major clusters: 1) biomass burning origin, 2) mixture of other combustion sources, and 3) marine origin. Low temperatures and low wind speed conditions correlated with high concentrations of K-containing particles, mainly due to regional emissions from residential biomass combustion; transport of air masses from continental Europe also contribute to cluster 1. The CTM results indicate that open biomass burning in the eastern parts of Europe may have contributed substantially to high PM2.5 concentrations (and to cluster 1) during an episode in late March. According to the CTM results the mixed cluster (2) is likely to include particles emitted from different source types and no single geographical source region seems to dominate for this cluster. The back trajectory analysis and meteorological conditions indicated that the marine origin cluster was correlated with westerly winds and high wind speed; this cluster had high concentrations of Na-containing particles, as expected for sea salt particles.

We examine the role of zonal Ekman transport along the coast of Senegal on 30 August, 2015 when the tropical disturbance associated with Tropical Cyclone Fred was located to the west of Senegal causing considerable coastal damage to coastal areas south of Dakar, Senegal. Ten-meter winds from three Weather Research and Forecast model simulations were used to estimate zonal Ekman transport, with the largest values found during the 30 August. The simulations are in agreement with limited coastal observations showing increasing southerly wind speeds during 30 August but are overestimated relative to the 3 coastal stations. The strong meridional winds translate into increased zonal Ekman transport to the coast of Senegal on 30 August. The use of a coupled ocean model will improve the estimates of Ekman transport along the Guinea-Senegalese coast. The observed damage suggests that artificial and natural barriers (mangroves) should be strengthened to protect coastal communities in Senegal.

Observing air quality from sensors onboard light rail cars in Salt Lake County, Utah began as a pilot study in 2014 and has now evolved into a five-year state-funded program. This metropolitan region suffers from both elevated ozone levels during summer and high PM2.5 events during winter. Pollution episodes result predominantly from local anthropogenic emissions but are also impacted by regional transport of dust, chemical precursors to ozone, and wildfire smoke as well as being exacerbated by the topographical features surrounding the city. Two electric light-rail train cars from the Utah Transit Authority light-rail Transit Express (“TRAX”) system were outfitted with PM2.5 and ozone sensors to measure air quality at high spatial and temporal resolution in this region. Pollutant concentration data underwent quality control procedures to determine whether the train motion affected the readings and how the sensors compared against regulatory sensors. Quality assurance results from data obtained over the past year show that TRAX Observation Project sensors are reliable, which corroborates earlier preliminary validation work. Two case studies from summer 2019 are presented to illustrate the strength of the finely-resolved air quality observations: 1) an elevated ozone event and 2) elevated particulate pollution resulting from 4th of July fireworks. The mobile observations were able to capture spatial gradients as well as pollutant hotspots during both of these episodes. Sensors have been recently added to a third light rail train car, which travels on a north-south oriented rail line along which we were unable to monitor air quality previously. The TRAX Observation Project is currently being used to provide reliable pollutant data for health studies and inform urban planning efforts. Links to real-time data displays and updated information on the quality-controlled data from this study are available at https://atmos.utah.edu/air_quality/trax/.

On January 8, 2005, a surface melt event began on the interior portion of Ross Ice Shelf. While many surface melt events on Ross Ice Shelf are caused by the advection of warm air onto the shelf from the Ross Sea, surface winds during this event were directed offshore and the spatial pattern of surface melt was inconsistent with the Southern Ocean serving as a heat source. Rather, due to the interior location of the surface melt coupled with prevailing wind direction and surface temperature data it is thought that adiabatic warming of Föhn winds is the driving cause of this melt event. Passive Microwave (SSM/I) imagery was used to determine surface melt occurrence and the event’s extent. Spatial patterns of surface melt were then compared to NCEP/NCAR reanalysis output for several synoptic weather variables including surface temperatures, sea level pressure and surface vector winds. Synoptic-scale weather conditions were consistent with those that would produce downsloping wind (föhn) conditions in the interior of the Ross Ice Shelf where the anomalous surface melt was located.

Tropical storm Nate, which was a powerful hurricane prior to landfall along the Alabama coast, traversed north towards our instrumented site in Hunstville, AL. The rain bands lasted 18 h and the 2D-video disdrometer (2DVD) captured the event which was shallow and indicative of pure warm rain processes. Measurements of raindrop size, shape and velocity distributions are quite rare in pure warm rain and are expected to differ from cold rain processes. In particular, asymmetric shapes due to drop oscillations and their impact on polarimetric radar signatures in warm rain have not been studied so far. Recently, the 2DVD data has been used for 3D reconstruction of asymmetric raindrop shapes but their fraction (relative to the more common oblate shapes) in warm rain has yet to be ascertained. Here we compute the scattering matrix drop-by-drop using Computer Simulation Technology integral equation solver for drop sizes>2.5 mm. From the scattering matrix elements, the polarimetric radar observables are simulated by integrating over 1 minute consecutive segments of the event. These simulated values are compared with dual-polarized C-band radar data located at 15 km range from the 2DVD site to evaluate the contribution of the asymmetric drop shapes.

The modern era of polarimetric radar begins with radiowave propagation research starting in the early 1970s with applications to measurement and modeling of wave attenuation in rain and depolarization due to ice particles along satellite-earth links. While there is a rich history of radar in meteorology after World War II, the impetus provided by radiowave propagation requirements lead to high quality antennas and feeds. Our journey starts by describing the key institutions and personnel responsible for development of weather radar polarimetry. The early period was dominated by circularly polarized radars for propagation research and at S-band for hail detection. By the mid-to late 70s, a paradigm shift occurred which led to the dominance of linear polarizations with applications to slant path attenuation prediction as well as estimation of rain rates and inferences of precipitation physics. The period from early 1980s to 1995 can be considered as the “golden” period of rapid research that brought in meteorologists, cloud physicists and hydrologists. This article describes the evolution of this technology from the vantage point of the authors. Their personal reflections and “behind the scenes” descriptions offer a glimpse into the inner workings at several key institutions which cannot be found elsewhere.

Amplitude growth rates of monochromatic gravity waves were estimated and compared from multiple instrument measurements carried out in Brazil. Wave dynamic parameters were obtained from sodium density profiles from lidar observations carried out in Sao Jose dos Campos (23°S, 46°W), while all-sky images of multiple airglow layers provided amplitudes and parameters of waves over Cachoeira Paulista (23°S, 45°W). Growth rates of gravity wave amplitudes from lidar and airglow imager data were consistent with dissipative wave behavior. Only a small amount of the observed wave events presented freely propagating behavior. Part of the observed waves presented saturated amplitude. The general saturated/damped behavior is consistent with diffusive filtering processes imposing limits to amplitude growth rates of the observed gravity waves.

Warm cloud-precipitation plays a vital role in the hydrological cycle, weather, and climate. Comprehensive observation and study of warm cloud-precipitation can advance our understanding of the internal physical processes and provide valuable information for developing the numerical models. This paper mainly focused on a study of characteristics of warm cloud-precipitation in South China during the pre-flood season using datasets observed from a Ka-band cloud radar, laser ceilometer and disdrometer. Eighteen kinds of quantities from these three instruments were used to precisely elucidate the distribution, diurnal variation, vertical structure, and physical property of warm cloud-precipitation. The results showed that the occurrence of aloft cloud-precipitation decreased with the increase of height, and most of the hydrometeors were distributed below 2 km. During the observation period, the ground rainfall mainly came from light precipitation; however, short-time and sharp showers contributed to the majority of rain amounts. Most of the cloud layers were single-layer, with base heights below 2.2 km, thickness thinner than 2.1 km, and top heights within 0.6-4.2 km. Warm cloud-precipitation owned certain diurnal variations, with a rising trend of cloud base heights in the afternoon and midnight. During 0230-1100, 1200-1800, and 2100-2300, the convections were relatively active with higher cloud tops, thicker cloud thickness, and higher rainfall occurrences. Separation and statistical results of cloud and precipitation indicated that they owned different vertical structures and physical properties, exhibiting different value ranges and changes of radar reflectivity, vertical air motion, particle size, number concentration, liquid water, and rain rate at different height levels. The particle size distributions of cloud and precipitation both were exponential. Radar-derived raindrop size distribution was very coherent with the ground measurement when the reflectivity of precipitation was within 10-20 dBZ. However, for other reflectivity regimes, instrument sensitivity, sampling height, attenuation, and non-precipitating weak targets can affect the comparison.

The three-axes Doppler sodar Latan-3 operated on an oceanographic stationary platform in the coastal zone of the Black Sea in June 2015. The platform is located 450 meters offshore from the southern coast of the Crimea Peninsula in the region of Katsiveli (44.39°N, 33.99°E). The water depth at the site is about 30 meters. The atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) typical for the mediterranean seas was observed when the wind is from the sea. The physical processes typical for the coastal mountain terrain was observed when the wind was from the shore. Complex measurements of the ABL parameters were performed using a sodar. Auxiliary measurements of the ABL parameters were performed using a temperature profiler and an ultrasonic thermometer-anemometer. Observations were made mostly during a fair weather with a pronounced diurnal course of meteorological parameters. Sodar data analysis revealed a strong wave activity in the ABL. Internal gravity waves with amplitudes of up to one hundred meters were regularly observed in a layered turbulence structure under stable conditions. Various forms of Kelvin-Helmholtz billows were observed at the interface between the sea breeze and the return flow aloft and in the low level jets.

We examine data assimilation coupling between meteorology and chemistry in the stratosphere from both weak and strong coupling strategies. The study was performed with the Canadian operational weather prediction Global Environmental Multiscale (GEM) model coupled online with the photochemical stratospheric chemistry developed at the Belgian Institute for Space Aeronomy, described in Part I. Here, the Canadian Meteorological Centre’s operational variational assimilation system was extended to include errors of chemical variables and cross-covariances between meteorological and chemical variables in a 3D-Var configuration, and we added the adjoint of tracer advection in the 4D-Var configuration. Our results show that the assimilation of limb sounding observations from the MIPAS instrument on board Envisat can be used to anchor the AMSU-A radiance bias correction scheme. Also, the added value of limb sounding temperature observations on meteorology and transport is shown to be significant. Weak coupling data assimilation with ozone-radiation interaction is shown to give comparable on meteorology whether a simplified linearized or comprehensive ozone chemistry scheme is used. Strong coupling data assimilation, using static error cross-covariances between ozone and temperature in a 3D-Var context, produced inconclusive results with the approximations we used. We have also conducted the assimilation of long-lived species observations using 4D-Var to infer winds. Our results showed the added value of assimilating several long-lived species, and an improvement in the zonal wind in the Tropics within the troposphere and lower stratosphere. 4D-Var assimilation also induced a correction of zonal wind in the surf zone and a temperature bias in the lower tropical stratosphere

A coupled stratospheric chemistry-meteorology model was developed by combining the Canadian operational weather prediction model Global Environmental Multiscale (GEM) with a comprehensive stratospheric photochemistry model from the Belgian Assimilation System for Chemical ObsErvations (BASCOE). The coupled model was called GEM-BACH for GEM-Belgian Atmospheric CHemistry. The coupling was made across a chemical interface that preserves time splitting while being modular, allowing GEM to run with or without chemistry. An evaluation of the coupling was performed by comparing the coupled model, refreshed by meteorological analyses every 6 hours, against the standard offline chemical transport model (CTM) approach. Results show that the dynamical meteorological consistency between meteorological analysis times far outweighs the error created by the jump resulting from the meteorological analysis increments at regular time intervals, irrespective whether a 3D-Var or 4D-Var meteorological analysis is used. GEM-BACH forecast refreshed by meteorological analyses every 6 hours were compared against independent measurements of temperature, long-lived species, ozone and water vapor. The comparison showed a relatively good agreement throughout the stratosphere except for an upper-level warm temperature bias and an ozone deficit of nearly 15%. Arguments in favor of using the same horizontal resolution for chemistry, meteorology, and meteorological analysis increments are also presented. In particular, the coupled model simulation during an ozone hole event gives better ozone concentrations than a 4D-Var chemical assimilation at a lower resolution.

The modern era of polarimetric radar begins with radiowave propagation research starting in the early 1970s with applications to measurement and modeling of wave attenuation in rain and depolarization due to ice particles along satellite-earth links. While there is a rich history of radar in meteorology after World War II, the impetus provided by radiowave propagation requirements lead to high quality antennas and feeds. Our journey starts by describing the key institutions and personnel responsible for development of weather radar polarimetry. The early period was dominated by circularly polarized radars for propagation research and at S-band for hail detection. By the mid-to late 70s, a paradigm shift occurred which led to the dominance of linear polarizations with applications to slant path attenuation prediction as well as estimation of rain rates and inferences of precipitation physics. The period from early 1980s to 1995 can be considered as the “golden” period of rapid research that brought in meteorologists, cloud physicists and hydrologists. This article describes the evolution of this technology from the vantage point of the authors. Their personal reflections and “behind the scenes” descriptions offer a glimpse into the inner workings at several key institutions which cannot be found elsewhere.

This paper characterizes the influence of synoptic-scale air mass conditions on spatial and temporal patterns of precipitation in North Carolina over a 16-year period (2003-2018). National Center for Environmental Prediction Stage IV multi-sensor precipitation estimates were used to describe seasonal variations in precipitation in the context of prevailing air mass conditions classified using the spatial synoptic classification system. Spatial analyses identified significant clustering of high daily precipitation amounts distributed along the east side of the Appalachian Mountains and along the coastal plains. Significant and heterogeneous clustering was prevalent in summer months and tended to coincide with land cover boundaries and complex terrain. The summer months were dominated by maritime tropical air mass conditions whereas dry moderate air mass conditions prevailed in the winter, spring, and fall. Between the three geographic regions of North Carolina, highest precipitation amounts were received in western North Carolina during the winter and spring, and in eastern North Carolina in the summer and fall. Central North Carolina received the least amount of precipitation; however, there was substantial variability between regions due to prevailing air mass conditions. There was an observed shift toward warmer and more humid air mass conditions in the winter, spring, and fall months throughout the study period (2003-2018), indicating a shift toward air mass conditions conducive to higher daily average rain rates in North Carolina.

Chemical processing of organic material in aqueous atmospheric aerosols and cloudwater is known to form secondary organic aerosols (SOA), although the extent to which each of these processes contributes to total aerosol mass is unclear. In this study, we use GAMMA 5.0, a photochemical box model with coupled gas and aqueous-phase chemistry, to consider the impact of aqueous organic reactions in both aqueous aerosols and clouds on isoprene epoxydiol (IEPOX) SOA over a range of pH for both aqueous phases, including cycling between cloud and aerosol within a single simulation. Low-pH aqueous aerosol, in the absence of organic coatings or other morphology which may limit uptake of IEPOX, is found to be an efficient source of IEPOX SOA, consistent with previous work. Cloudwater at pH 4 or lower is also found to be a potentially significant source of IEPOX SOA. This phenomenon is primarily attributed to the relatively high uptake of IEPOX to clouds as a result of higher water content in clouds as compared to aerosol. For more acidic cloudwater, the aqueous organic material is comprised primarily of IEPOX SOA and lower-volatility organic acids. For both cloudwater and aqueous aerosol, pH is the most significant factor considered in this study in determining the mass of aqueous phase organic acids and IEPOX SOA. Other factors, such as the time of day or sequence of aerosol-to-cloud or cloud-to-aerosol transitions, contribute to less than 15% difference in the final aqSOA fractional composition. The potential significance of cloud processing as a contributor to IEPOX SOA production could account for discrepancies between predicted IEPOX SOA mass from atmospheric models and measured ambient IEPOX SOA mass, or observations of IEPOX SOA in locations where mass transfer limitations are expected in aerosol particles.

An open source computational fluid dynamics (CFD) solver has been incorporated into the WindNinja modeling framework widely used by wildland fire managers as well as researchers and practitioners in other fields, such as wind energy, wind erosion, and search and rescue. Here we describe incorporation of the CFD solver and evaluate its performance compared to the conservation of mass (COM) solver in WindNinja and previously published large-eddy simulations (LES) for three field campaigns conducted over isolated terrain obstacles of varying terrain complexity: Askervein Hill, Bolund Hill, and Big Southern Butte. We also compare the effects of two important model settings in the CFD solver and provide guidance on model sensitivity to these settings. Additionally, we investigate the computational mesh and difficulties regarding terrain representation. Two important findings from this work are: (1) the choice of discretization scheme for advection has a significantly larger effect on the simulated winds than the choice of turbulence model and (2) CFD solver predictions are significantly better than the COM solver predictions at windward and lee side observation locations, but no difference was found in predicted speed-up at ridgetop locations between the two solvers.

The 24 September 2001 College Park, Maryland, tornado was a long-track and strong tornado that passed within a close range of two Doppler radars. It was the third in a series of three tornadoes associated with a supercell storm that developed in Stafford County, Virginia, and initiated 3 - 4 km southwest of College Park and dissipated near Columbia, Howard County. The supercell tracked approximately 120 km and lasted for about 126 minutes. This study presents a synoptic and mesoscale overview of favorable conditions and forcing mechanisms that resulted in the severe convective outbreak associated with the College Park tornado. Results show many critical elements of the tornadic event, including a negative-tilted upper-level trough over the Ohio Valley, a jet stream with moderate vertical shear, a low-level warm, moist tongue of the air associated with strong southerly flow over south-central Maryland and Virginia, and significantly increased convective available potential energy (CAPE) during the late afternoon hours. A possible role of the urban heat island effects from Washington, DC in increasing CAPE for the development of the supercell is discussed. Satellite imagery reveals banded convective morphology with high cloud tops associated with the supercell that produced the College Park tornado. Operational WSR-88D data exhibits a high reflectivity “debris ball” or tornadic debris signature (TDS) within the hook echo, the evolution of the parent storm from a supercell structure to a bow echo, and a tornado cyclone signature (TCS). Many of the mesoscale features could be captured by contemporary numerical model analyses. This study concludes with a discussion of the effectiveness of the coordinated use of satellite and radar observations in the operational environment of nowcasting severe convection.

Land surface temperature (LST) is a key variable in surface-atmosphere energy and water exchanges. The main goals of this study are to (i) evaluate the LST of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) ERA-Interim and ERA5 reanalyses over Iberian Peninsula using the Satellite Application Facility on Land Surface Analysis (LSA-SAF) product and to (ii) understand the main drivers of the LST errors in the reanalysis. Simulations with the ECMWF land-surface model in offline mode (uncoupled) were carried out over the Iberian Peninsula and compared with the reanalysis data. Several sensitivity simulations were performed in a confined domain centered in Southern Portugal to investigate potential sources of the LST errors. The Copernicus Global Land Service (CGLS) fraction of green vegetation cover (FCover) and the European Space Agency’s Climate Change Initiative (ESA-CCI) Land Cover dataset were explored. We found a general underestimation of daytime LST and slightly overestimation at night-time. The results indicate that there is still room for improvement in the simulation of LST in ECMWF products. Still, ERA5 presents an overall higher quality product in relation to ERA-Interim. Our analysis suggested a relation between the large daytime cold bias and vegetation cover differences between (ERA5 and CGLS FCocver) with a correlation of -0.45. The replacement of the low and high vegetation cover by those of ESA-CCI provided an overall reduction of the large Tmax biases during summer. The increased vertical resolution of the soil at the surface, has a positive impact, but much smaller when compared with the vegetation changes. The sensitivity of the vegetation density parameter, that currently depends on the vegetation type, provided further proof for a needed revision of the vegetation in the model, as there is a reasonable correlation between this parameter and the Tmax mean errors when using the ESA-CCI vegetation cover (while the same correlation cannot be reproduced with the original model vegetation). Our results support the hypothesis that vegetation cover is one of the main drivers of the LST summertime cold bias in ERA5 over Iberian Peninsula.

The present study uses the 3 years of data from a vertically pointed profile Radar (VPPR) at the mountain site (Huancayo at 3.2 km msl; HYO) in Peru to investigate the precipitation characteristics/patterns including diurnal variation, bright band (BB) characteristics and vertical structure of rain (VSR). VPPR provides continuous 1­min profiles of radar reflectivity (Ze), rain rate (RR), liquid water content (LWC) and Doppler velocity. At the same time, field campaign data are used to investigate the role of the surface and atmospheric variables in generating the rainfall and organization of the cloud systems over HYO. The precipitation shows the bimodal distribution; frequent and higher RR during afternoon and nighttime. The BB height also shows a diurnal pattern and BB height is higher during the afternoon and nighttime compared; and follows the diurnal heating of the Andes. More than 70% BB height lies between ~4.3­4.7 km and only 20% BB has altitude higher than 5 km. The austral summer monsoon (December to March months) have higher intense vertical profiles (higher Z e ) compared to pre monsoon seasons (September to November) and shows the nega­tive gradient for most of the altitude. The RR and LWC show the opposite characteristics, and both have a positive gradient below the 6 km altitude and then negative gradient above 6 km altitude. The raindrop size distribution (DSD) parameters show most of the variation below the freezing level, and a higher concentra­tion of large sized of hydrometeors are observed for higher RR, however the dominant modes of Dm are less than 1 mm. The changes in the VSR in DSD parameters are significant for the RR>20 mm/h, whereas for RR<2 mm/h the vertical structure in DSD parameters do not have much differences during monsoon and premonsoon seasons. Satellite and reanalysis data reveal the short periods of convective activity with higher ac­ cumulated rainfall over HYO compared to stratiform precipitation, which is more common in the nighttime and sustain for many hours. Wet spells (higher rainy days) have low pressure circulation, which favours the transport of moisture from the Amazon to the central Sierra of Peru, while the anticyclonic circulation at high levels favours the divergence at higher pressure levels and, enhances the convective in the region. During the dry spells, low level weaker circulation at the west of Brazil, restricts the transport of moisture to the central Sierra, while the circulation at high levels does not favor rain processes. The improved understanding of the tropical Andes precipitation would be very important for assessing climate variability and changes as well as to forecast precipitation using the numerical models.

The gap in knowledge regarding the radiative effects of aerosols in the UV region of the solar spectrum is large, mainly due to the lack of systematic measurements of the aerosol single scattering albedo (SSA) and absorption optical depth (AAOD). In the present study, spectral UV measurements performed in Thessaloniki, Greece by a double monochromator Brewer spectrophotometer in the period 1998 - 2017 are used for the calculation of the aforementioned optical properties. The main uncertainty factors have been described and there is an effort to quantify the overall uncertainties in SSA and AAOD. Analysis of the results suggests that the absorption by aerosols is much stronger in the UV relative to the visible. SSA follows a clear annual pattern ranging from ~0.7 in winter to ~0.85 in summer at wavelengths 320 – 360 nm, while AAOD peaks in summer and winter. The average AAOD for 2009 – 2011 is ~50% above the 2003 – 2006 average, possibly due to increased emissions of absorbing aerosols related to the economical crisis and the metro-railway construction works in the city center. A detailed analysis of the uncertainties in the retrieval of the SSA and the AAOD from the Brewer spectrophotometer has been also performed.

Tornadoes remain an active subject of observational and numerical research due to the damage and fatalities they cause worldwide as well as poor understanding of their behavior, such as what processes result in their genesis and what determines their longevity and morphology. A numerical model executed on a supercomputer run at high resolution can serve as a powerful tool for exploring the rapidly evolving tornado-scale features within a simulated storm, but saving large amounts data for meaningful analysis can result in unacceptably slow model performance, an unwieldy amount of saved data, and saved data spread across millions of files. In this paper, a system for efficiently saving and managing hundreds of terabytes of compressed model output is described in order to support a supercomputer simulation of a tornadic supercell thunderstorm. The challenges of managing a simulation spanning over a quarter trillion grid volumes across the Blue Waters supercomputer are also described. The simulated supercell produces a long-track EF5 tornado, and the near-tornado environment is described during tornadogenesis, where single upward-growing vortex undergoes several vortex mergers before transitioning into a multiple vortex tornado.

Ocean surface heat fluxes play a significant role in the genesis and evolution of various marine-based atmospheric phenomena, from the synoptic scale down to the microscale. While in-situ measurements from buoys and flux towers will continue to be the standard in regards to surface heat flux estimates, they commonly have significant gaps in temporal and spatial coverage. Previous and current satellite missions have filled these gaps; though they may not observe the fluxes directly, they can measure the variables needed (wind speed, temperature, and humidity) to estimate latent and sensible heat fluxes. However, current remote sensing instruments have their own limitations, such as infrequent coverage, signals attenuated by precipitation, or both. The Cyclone Global Navigation Satellite System (CYGNSS) mission overcomes these limitations over the tropical and subtropical oceans by providing improved coverage in nearly all weather conditions. While CYGNSS (Level 2) primarily estimates surface winds, when coupled with observations or estimates of temperature and humidity from reanalysis data, it can provide estimates of latent and sensible heat fluxes along its orbit. This paper describes the development of the Surface Heat Flux Product for the CYGNSS mission, its current results, and expected improvements and changes in future releases.

This paper characterizes the influence of synoptic-scale airmass conditions on spatial and temporal patterns of precipitation in North Carolina over a 16-year period (2003-2018). National Center for Environmental Prediction Stage IV multi-sensor precipitation estimates were used to describe seasonal variations in precipitation in the context of prevailing airmass conditions classified using the spatial synoptic classification system. Spatial analyses identified significant clustering of high daily average precipitation amounts distributed along the lee side of the Appalachian Mountains and along the coastal plains. Significant and heterogenous clustering was prevalent in summer months and tended to coincide with land cover boundaries and complex terrain. Between the three geographic regions of North Carolina, highest precipitations amounts were received in western North Carolina during the winter and spring, but this signal shifted to eastern North Carolina in the summer and fall. Central North Carolina received the least amount of precipitation; however, there was substantial variability between regions due to prevailing airmass conditions. The summer months were dominated by maritime tropical airmass conditions with no clear shift in summertime airmass trends over the study period. Most days with recorded precipitation in the winter, spring, and fall occurred under dry moderate airmass conditions; however, the highest daily average precipitation and total precipitation occurred under the influence of maritime moderate airmasses. Importantly, there was an observed shift toward warmer and more humid airmass conditions in the winter, spring, and fall months throughout the study period (2003-2018), indicating a shift toward airmass conditions conducive to higher daily average rain rates in North Carolina.

Coastal rural areas can be a source of elemental mercury, but the potential influence of their topographic and climatic particularities on gaseous elemental mercury (GEM) fluxes have not been investigated extensively. In this study gaseous elemental mercury was measured over Mediterranean coastal grassland located at Northern Greece from 2014 to 2015 and GEM fluxes were evaluated utilizing Monin-Obukhov similarity theory. The GEM fluxes ranged from -50.30 to 109.695 ng m-2 h-1 with a mean value equal to 10.501 ng m-2 h-1 ± 19.14 ng m-2 h-1. Concerning the peak events, with high positive and low negative GEM fluxes, those were recorded from the morning until the evening. Rain events were a strong contributing factor for enhanced GEM fluxes. The enhanced turbulent mixing under daytime unstable conditions led to greater evasion and positive GEM fluxes while during nighttime periods the GEM evasion is lower indicating the effect of atmospheric stability on GEM fluxes. The coastal grassland with its specific characteristics influences the GEM fluxes and this area could be characterized as source of elemental mercury. This study is one of the rare efforts in the research community to estimate GEM fluxes in a coastal natural site based on aerodynamic gradient method.

Improvements that can be attained in seasonal climate predictions in various parts of Africa using the multimodel supersensemble scheme are presented in this study. The synthetic superensemble (SSE) used follows the approach originally developed at Florida State University (FSU). The technique takes more advantage of the skill in the climate forecast data sets from atmosphere-ocean general circulation models running at many centres worldwide including the WMO global producing centers (GPCs). The module used in this work drew data sets from the Four versions of FSU coupled model system, seven models from the DEMETER project which is the forerun to the current European Ensembles Forecast System, the NCAR Model, and the Predictive Ocean Atmosphere Model for Australia (POAMA), all making a set of 13 individual models. An archive consisting of monthly simulations of precipitation was available over all the 5 regions of Africa, namely Eastern, Central, Northern, Southern, and Western Africa. The results showed that the SSE forecast for precipitation carries a higher skill compared to each of the member models and the ensemble mean. Relative to the ensemble mean (EM), the SSE provides an improvement of 18% in simulation of season cycle of precipitation climatology. In Eastern Africa, during December-February season, a north-south gradient of precipitation prevails between Tropical East Africa and the sector of the region towards Southern Africa. This regional scale climate pattern is a direct influence of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITZC) across the African continent during this time of the year. The SSE emerges with superior skill scores such as lowest root mean square error above the EM and the member models, for example in the prediction of spatial location and precipitation magnitudes that characterize the see-saw precipitation pattern in Eastern Africa. In all parts of Africa, and especially Eastern Africa where seasonal precipitation variability is a frequent cause huge human suffering in due to droughts and famine, the multimodel superensemble and its subsequent improvements will always provide a forecast that out weighs the best Atmosphere-Ocean Climate Model.

Atmospheric Motion Vectors (AMVs) calculated by six different institutions (Brazil Center for Weather Prediction and Climate Studies/CPTEC/INPE, European Organization for the Exploitation of Meteorological Satellites/EUMETSAT, Japan Meteorological Agency/JMA, Korea Meteorological Administration/KMA, Unites States National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration/NOAA and the Satellite Application Facility on Support to Nowcasting/NWCSAF) with JMA’s Himawari-8 satellite data and other common input data are here compared. The comparison is based on two different AMV input datasets, calculated with two different image triplets for 21 July 2016, and the use of a prescribed and a specific configuration. The main results of the study are summarized as follows: (1) the differences in the AMV datasets depend very much on the “AMV height assignment” used and much less on the use of a prescribed or specific configuration; (2) the use of the “Common Quality Indicator (CQI)” has a quantified skill in filtering collocated AMVs for an improved statistical agreement between centers; (3) JMA AMV algorithm has the best overall performance considering all validation metrics, most likely due to its height assignment: “optimal estimation using observed radiance and NWP wind vertical profile”.

This study proposes a new algorithm termed rain cell identification and tracking (RCIT) to identify and track rain cells from high resolution weather radar data. Previous algorithms have limitations when tracking non-consequent rain cells owing to their use of maximum correlation coefficient methods and their lack of an alternative way to handle the variation stages of rain cells during their life cycles. To address these deficiencies, various methods are implemented in the new algorithm. These include the particle image velocimetry (PIV) method for motion estimation and the rain cell matching rule to obtain the stage changes of rain cells. High resolution (5-min and 1-km) radar reflectivity data from three rainy days over the German federal state North Rhine Westphalia (NRW) are used to evaluate the proposed algorithm. The performance of the new algorithm is compared with a radar reflectivity map and verified by two object-oriented methods: structure–amplitude–location (SAL) and geometric index. The verification results suggest that the performance of the new algorithm is good. Application of the RCIT algorithm to the selected cases shows that the inner structure of rainfall events in the experimental region present extreme value distributions, with most rainfall events having a short duration with less intensity. The new algorithm can effectively capture the stage changes of rain cells during their life cycles. The proposed algorithm can serve as the basis for further hydro-meteorological applications such as spatial and temporal analysis of rainfall events and short-term flood forecasting.

In the context of the French-German space lidar mission MERLIN dedicated to the determination of the atmospheric methane content, an end-to-end mission simulator is being developed. In order to check whether the instrument design meets the performance requirements, simulations have to count all the sources of noise on the measurements like the optical energy variability induced by speckle. Speckle is due to interference as the lidar beam are quasi monochromatic. Speckle contribution to the error budget has to be estimated but also simulated. In this paper, the speckle theory is revisited and applied to MERLIN double pulsed IPDA lidar and also to the DLR demonstrator CHARM-F. Results show: on the signal path, speckle noise depends mainly on the size of the illuminating area on ground; on the solar flux, speckle is fully negligible both because the pixel size and the optical filter spectral width; on energy monitoring path a decorrelation mechanism is needed to reduce speckle noise on averaged data. Speckle noises for MERLIN and CHARM-F can be simulated by Gaussian noises with only one random draw by shot separately for energy monitoring and signal paths.

Visualization is an essential tool for analysis of data and communication of findings in the sciences, and the Earth System Science (ESS) are no exception. However, within ESS specialized visualization requirements and data models --- particularly for those data arising from numerical models --- often make general-purpose visualization packages difficult, if not impossible, to effectively use. This paper presents VAPOR: a domain-specific visualization package that targets the specialized needs of ESS modelers, particularly those working in research settings where highly interactive exploratory visualization is beneficial. We specifically describe VAPOR’s ability to handle ESS simulation data from a wide variety of numerical models, as well as a multi-resolution representation that enables interactive visualization on very large data while using only commodity computing resources. We also describe VAPOR’s visualization capabilities, paying particular attention to features for geo-referenced data and advanced rendering algorithms suitable for time-varying, 3D data. Finally, we illustrate VAPOR's utility in the study of a numerically simulated tornado. Our results demonstrate both ease-of-use and the rich capabilities of VAPOR in such a use case.

The “NWCSAF High Resolution Winds (NWC/GEO-HRW)” software is developed by the EUMETSAT’s “Satellite Application Facility on support to Nowcasting and very short range forecasting (NWCSAF)”, inside its stand-alone software package for calculation of meteorological products with geostationary satellite data (NWC/GEO). The whole NWC/GEO software package can be obtained after registration at the NWCSAF Helpdesk, www.nwcsaf.org. It is easy to get, install and use. The code is easy to read and fully documented. And in the NWCSAF Helpdesk, users find support and help for its use. “NWCSAF High Resolution Winds” provides a detailed calculation of Atmospheric Motion Vectors (AMVs) and Trajectories, locally and in near real time, using as input NWP model data and geostationary satellite image data. The latest version of the software, v2018, is able to process MSG, Himawari-8/9, GOES-N and GOES-R satellite series images, so that AMVs and Trajectories can be calculated all throughout the planet Earth with the same algorithm and quality. In the “2014 and 2018 AMV Intercomparison Studies”, “NWCSAF High Resolution Winds” has shown to be one of the two best AMV algorithms for both MSG and Himawari-8/9 satellites. And the “Coordination Group for Meteorological Satellites (CGMS)” has recognized in its “2012 Meeting Report”: 1. “NWCSAF High Resolution Winds” fulfills the requirements to be a portable stand-alone AMV calculation software due to its easy installation and usability. 2. It has been successfully adapted by some CGMS members and serves as an important tool for development. It is modular, well documented, and well suited as stand-alone AMV software. 3. Although alternatives exist as portable stand-alone AMV calculation software, they are not as advanced in terms of documentation and do not have an existing Helpdesk. Considering this, a full description and validation of the “NWCSAF/High Resolution Winds” is shown here for the first time in a peer-reviewed paper. The procedure to obtain the software for operational meteorology and research is also explained.

The contribution of extra-tropical synoptic cyclones to the formation of summer-mean atmospheric circulation patterns in the Arctic is investigated by clustering the dominant Arctic circulation patterns by the self-organizing maps (SOMs) using the daily mean sea level pressure (MSLP) in the Arctic domain (≥ 60°N). Three SOM patterns are identified: one with prevalent low pressure anomalies in the Arctic Circle (SOM1) and two opposite dipoles with primary high pressure anomalies covering the Arctic Ocean (SOM2 and SOM3). The time series of summertime occurrence frequencies demonstrate the largest inter-annual variation in the SOM1, the slight decreasing trend in the SOM2, and the abrupt upswing after 2007 in the SOM3. The relevant analyses with produced cyclone track data confirm that the vital contribution. The Arctic cyclone activity is enhanced in the SOM1 because the meridional temperature gradient increases over the land–Arctic Ocean boundaries co-located with major extra-tropical cyclone pathways. The composite daily synoptic evolutions for each SOM reveal that the persistence of all the three SOMs is less than 5 days on average. These evolutionary short-term weather patterns have substantial variability at inter-annual and longer timescales. Therefore, the synoptic-scale activity is central to forming the seasonal-mean climate of the Arctic.

The 24 September 2001 College Park, Maryland, tornado was a long track and strong tornado that passed within a close range of two Doppler radars. It was the third in a series of three tornadoes associated with a supercell storm that developed in Stafford County, Virginia, and initiated 3 - 4 km southwest of College Park and dissipated near Columbia, Howard County. The supercell tracked approximately 120 km and lasted for about 126 minutes. This study presents a synoptic and mesoscale overview of favorable conditions and forcing mechanisms that resulted in the severe convective outbreak associated with the College Park tornado. Results show many critical elements of the tornadic event, including a negative-tilted upper-level trough over the Ohio Valley, a jet stream with moderate vertical shear, a warm, moist tongue of the air associated with strong southerly flow over south-central Maryland and Virginia, and significantly increased convective available potential energy during the late afternoon hours. Satellite imagery reveals banded convective morphology with high cloud tops associated with the supercell that produced the College Park tornado. Operational WSR-88D data exhibits a high reflectivity “debris ball” or tornadic debris signature (TDS) within the hook echo, the evolution of the parent storm from a supercell structure to a bow echo, and a tornado cyclone signature (TCS). Many of the mesoscale environmental features could be captured by contemporary numerical model analyses. This study concludes with a discussion of the effectiveness of the coordinated use of satellite and radar observations in the operational environment of nowcasting severe convection.

This study analyses uncertainties associated with the annual cycle of West African rainfall characteristics in 15 simulations of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) over the Sahel and Guinean regions. Indices based on daily rainfall such as the frequency and the ntensity of wet days, the consecutive dry days (CDD) and wet days (CWD), the 95th percentile of daily rainfall (R95) and its contribution to the umulative monsoon rainfall (R95PTOT) have been assessed. Over both regions, TRMM, GPCP and CHIRPS observational datasets provide very consistent results on the annual cycle of precipitation but less so on the frequency of wet days. Conversely, higher uncertainties are noted on the intensity of wet days over both study areas, particularly over the Guinean region. Overall, CMIP5 simulations present much higher uncertainties in the representation of the mean precipitation climatology, often provide too early (late) onset dates over the Sahel (the Guinean region) and overestimate rainfall during the early and late monsoon phases. These errors do not compensate at the annual scale nor when considering West Africa as a hole. Results also reveal that over the Guinean region, the difficulty of models to represent the annual structure of the mean precipitation strongly involves biases in the representation of the annual cycle of the frequency of wet days. We found strong uncertainties in the simulation of the CWD and he CDD over both areas. Conversely for R95 and R95PTOT, the ncertainties in CMIP5 models appear somewhat weaker, but the magnitude of R95 is largely underestimated in most models.

This study analyses uncertainties associated with the annual cycle of West African rainfall characteristics in 15 simulations of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) over the Sahel and Guinean regions. Indices based on daily rainfall such as the frequency and the ntensity of wet days, the consecutive dry days (CDD) and wet days (CWD), the 95th percentile of daily rainfall (R95) and its contribution to the umulative monsoon rainfall (R95PTOT) have been assessed. Over both regions, TRMM, GPCP and CHIRPS observational datasets provide very consistent results on the annual cycle of precipitation but less so on the frequency of wet days. Conversely, higher uncertainties are noted on the intensity of wet days over both study areas, particularly over the Guinean region. Overall, CMIP5 simulations present much higher uncertainties in the representation of the mean precipitation climatology, often provide too early (late) onset dates over the Sahel (the Guinean region) and overestimate rainfall during the early and late monsoon phases. These errors do not compensate at the annual scale nor when considering West Africa as a hole. Results also reveal that over the Guinean region, the difficulty of models to represent the annual structure of the mean precipitation strongly involves biases in the representation of the annual cycle of the frequency of wet days. We found strong uncertainties in the simulation of the CWD and he CDD over both areas. Conversely for R95p and R95PTOT, the ncertainties in CMIP5 models appear somewhat weaker, but the magnitude f R95 is largely underestimated in most models.

AIUS (Atmospheric Infrared Ultraspectral Sounder) is an infrared occultation spectrometer onboard the Chinese GaoFen-5 satellite, which covers a spectral range of 2.4--13.3 μm (750--4100 cm-1) with a spectral resolution of about 0.02 cm-1. AIUS was designed to measure and to study chemical processes of ozone (O3) and other trace gases in the upper troposphere and stratosphere over Antarctic. In this study, the corresponding retrieval methodology is described. The comparison between AIUS measurements and simulated spectra illustrates that AIUS measurements agree well to the simulated spectra. To first evaluate the reliability of our retrieval algorithm, three retrieval O3 experiments are performed based on ACE-FTS observation spectra. A comparison between our retrieved profiles and the ACE-FTS official products shows that the relative difference of these three retrieval experiments is mostly within 10% between 20 km and 70 km. These retrieval experiments demonstrate that the retrieval algorithm described in this study work fine and reliable. Furthermore, O3, H2O and HCl profiles are retrieved from eight orbits of AIUS measurements and compared with the official AURA/MLS level-2 v4.2 profiles. Comparison experiments show that the relative difference is mostly within 10% (about 0.02 - 0.4 ppm) between 18 and 58 km for O3 retrieval, within 10% (0-0.5 ppm) between 15 and 80 km for H2O retrieval, and within 10% (about 0.1 ppb) between 30 and 60 km for HCl retrieval. There is a good agreement in the retrieved trace gas profiles obtained from AIUS and from coincident profiles from MLS.

Radiation is the major driver of snowmelt, and hence its estimation is critically important. Net radiation reaching the forest floor is influenced by vegetation density. Previous studies in mid-latitude conifer forests have confirmed that net radiation decreases and then subsequently increases with increasing vegetation density, for clear sky conditions. This leads to existence of a net radiation minimum at an intermediate vegetation density. With increasing cloud cover, the minimum radiation shifts toward lower densities, sometimes resulting in a monotonically increasing radiation with vegetation density. The net radiation trend, however, is expected to change across sites, affecting the magnitude and timing of individual radiation components. This research explores the variability of net radiation on snow-covered forest floor for different vegetation densities along a latitudinal gradient. We especially investigate how the magnitude of minimum/maximum radiation and the corresponding vegetation density change with the site geographical location. To evaluate these, the net radiation is evaluated using the Forest Radiation Model at six different locations in predominantly white spruce (Picea glauca) canopy cover across North America, ranging from 45 to 66°N latitudes. Results show that the variation of net radiation with vegetation density considerably varies with latitude. In higher latitude forests, the magnitude of net radiation is generally smaller, and the minimum radiation is exhibited at relatively sparser vegetation densities, under clear sky conditions. For interspersed cloudy sky conditions, net radiation non-monotonically varies with latitude across the sites, depending on the seasonal sky cloudiness and air temperature. Latitudinal sensitivity of net radiation is lower on north-facing hillslopes than on south-facing sites.

The Sentinel Application Platform (SNAP) architecture facilitates Earth Observation data processing (http://step.esa.int/main/toolboxes/snap/). In this work we present results from a new Snow Processor for SNAP. We also describe physical principles behind the developed snow property retrieval technique based on the analysis of Ocean and Land Colour Instrument (OLCI) onboard Sentinel-3A/B measurements over clean and polluted snow fields. Using OLCI spectral reflectance measurements in the range 400-1020nm, we derive important snow properties such as spectral and broadband albedo, snow specific surface area, snow extent and grain size on the spatial grid of 300m. The algorithm also incorporates cloud screening and atmospheric correction procedures over snow surfaces. We present validation results using ground measurements from Antarctica, the Greenland ice sheet and the French Alps. We find the spectral albedo retrieved with accuracy of better than 3% on average, making our retrievals sufficient for a variety of applications. Broadband albedo is retrieved with the average accuracy of about 5% over snow. Therefore, the uncertainties of satellite retrievals are close to experimental errors of ground measurements. The retrieved surface grain size shows good agreement with ground observations. Snow specific surface area observations are also consistent with our OLCI retrievals. We present snow albedo and grain size mapping over the inland ice sheet of Greenland for areas including dry snow, melted/melting snow and impurity rich bare ice. The algorithm can be applied to OLCI Sentinel-3 measurements providing an opportunity for creation of long – term snow property records essential for climate monitoring and data assimilation studies - especially in the Arctic region, where we face rapid environmental changes including reduction of snow/ice extent and, therefore, planetary albedo.

This manuscript examines from the diurnal convection cycle (CDC) to the interdecadal variability in the region of the Peruvian Altiplano (RAP). Currently, estimating precipitation using satellites is an alternative which can be used to study the spatio-temporal evolution of precipitation systems. Herein CPC data Morphing technique - CMORPH (Joyce et al, 2004) was used between 2002 and 2014 to analyze the CDC in RAP. The CMOPRH data were compared with rainfall data series measured by rain gauges of meteorological stations (EMS) in the RAP. The results indicate that the CDC shows high variability in the Titicaca Basin and is associated with patterns of lake breeze (day), land breeze (night) and mountain - valley circulation. The CDC starts at 1800 HL (local time) in the northern region of Lake Titicaca, lasting between 2 h and 6 h, and most of 2000 HL. The CDC over the dry surface (ST) of Titicaca Basin starts early at around 1200 HL, lasting 4 h to 7 h, and maximum at 1800 HL.

The increasing spatial and spectral resolution of hyperspectral imagers yields detailed spectroscopy measurements from both space-based and airborne platforms. Machine learning algorithms have achieved state-of-the-art material classification performance on benchmark hyperspectral data sets; however, these techniques often do not consider varying atmospheric conditions experienced in a real-world detection scenario. To reduce the impact of atmospheric effects in the at-sensor signal, atmospheric compensation must be performed. Radiative Transfer (RT) modeling can generate high-fidelity atmospheric estimates at detailed spectral resolutions, but is often too time-consuming for real-time detection scenarios. This research utilizes machine learning methods to perform dimension reduction on the transmittance, upwelling radiance, and downwelling radiance (TUD) data to create high accuracy atmospheric estimates with lower computational cost than RT modeling. The utility of this approach is investigated using the instrument line shape for the Mako long-wave infrared hyperspectral sensor. This study employs physics-based metrics and loss functions to identify promising dimension reduction techniques. As a result, TUD vectors can be produced in real-time allowing for atmospheric compensation across diverse remote sensing scenarios.

Among other applications, radar-rainfall (RR) and QPE (Quantitative Precipitation Estimation) based on radar reflectivity, dual polarization variables, and multi-sensor information, provide important information for land surface hydrology, such as flood forecasting. Therefore, we developed a flood alert system using rainfall-runoff model forced with RR and QPE, and tipping-bucket observations to forecast river water levels (using rating-curves). In this study, we used an hourly dataset from an S-Band dual-polarimetric radar with two tropical R(Z) relations based distrometer data, a polarimetric R(Z,ZDR) algorithm from the literature and a multi-sensor approach using radar, satellite and rain gauge. Two hydrological models were used and calibrated using observed discharge time-series. Although our previous studies indicated accurate RR-based simulations, in some cases floods were not detected when using catchment-lumped rainfall derived from multi-sensor QPE. In this study, we advance further in this subject using improved R(Z,ZDR) relations and QPE for the period of 2016-2017 and flood event-based rainfall-runoff calibration. Thus, we focused on the development (and timing) of floods in the Marrecas River can be complex and strongly related to storms spatiotemporal distribution. To explore this aspect, we also perform a first analysis in using RR in rainfall-runoff model with a nested catchment discretization.

The 24 September 2001 College Park, Maryland, tornado was a long-tracked and violent tornado that passed within a close range of two Doppler radars. It was the third in a series of three tornadoes associated with a supercell storm that developed in Stafford County, Virginia, and initiated 3 - 4 km southwest of College Park and dissipated near Columbia, Howard County. The supercell tracked approximately 120 km and lasted for about 126 minutes. This study presents a synoptic and mesoscale overview of favorable conditions and forcing mechanisms that resulted in the severe convective outbreak associated with the College Park tornado. Results show many critical elements of the tornadic event, including a negative-tilted upper-level trough over the Ohio Valley, a jet stream with moderate vertical shear, a warm, moist tongue of the air associated with strong southerly flow over south-central Maryland and Virginia, and significantly increased convective available potential energy during the late afternoon hours. Satellite imagery reveals banded convective morphology with high cloud tops associated with the supercell that produced the College Park tornado. Operational WSR-88D data exhibits a high reflectivity “debris ball” or tornadic debris signature (TDS) within the hook echo, the evolution of the parent storm from a supercell structure to a bow echo, and a tornado cyclone signature (TCS). Many of the mesoscale environmental features could be captured by contemporary numerical model analyses. This study concludes with a discussion of the effectiveness of the coordinated use of satellite and radar observations in the operational environment of nowcasting severe convection.

Residential coal combustion is one of the most significant sources of carbonaceous aerosols in the Highveld region of South Africa, significantly affecting the local and regional climate. In this study, we investigated single coal-burning particles emitted when using different fire-ignition techniques (top-lit up-draft vs bottom-lit up-draft) and air ventilation rates (defined by the number of air holes above and below the fire grate) in selected informal braziers. Aerosol samples were collected on nucleopore filters at the Sustainable Energy Technology and Research Centre Laboratory, University of Johannesburg. Individual particles (~700) were investigated using a scanning electron microscope equipped with energy-dispersive X-ray spectroscopy (EDS). Two distinct forms of spherical organic particles (SOPs) were identified, one less oxidized than the other. The particles were further classified into "electronically" dark and bright. EDS analysis showed that 70% of the dark spherical organic particles had higher (~60%) relative oxygen content than in the bright SOPs. We quantified the morphology of spherical organic particles and classified them into four categories: ~50% are bare single particles; ~35% particles are aggregated and form diffusion accretion chains; 10% have inclusions, and 5% are deformed due to impaction on filter material during sampling. We conclude that there are two distinct kinds of coal burning spherical organic particles and that dark SOPs are less volatile than bright SOPs. We also show that these spherical organic particles are similar in nature and characteristics to tar balls observed in biomass combustion and that they have the potential to absorb sunlight thereby affecting the earth’s radiative budget and climate. This study provides insights into the mixing states, morphology, and possible formation mechanisms of these organic particles from residential coal combustion in informal stoves.

The assimilation of Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity (SMOS) data into the ECMWF (European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts) H-TESSEL (Hydrology revised - Tiled ECMWF Scheme for Surface Exchanges over Land) model is presented. SMOS soil moisture (SM) estimates have been produced specifically by training a neural network with SMOS brightness temperatures as input and H-TESSEL model SM simulations as reference. This can help the assimilation of SMOS information in several ways: (1) the neural network soil moisture (NNSM) data have a similar climatology to the model, (2) no global bias is present with respect to the model even if regional differences can exist. Experiments performing joint data assimilation (DA) of NNSM, 2 metre air temperature and relative humidity or NNSM-only DA are discussed. The resulting SM was evaluated against a large number of in situ measurements of SM obtaining similar results to those of the model with no assimilation, even if significant differences were found from site to site. In addition, atmospheric forecasts initialized with H-TESSEL runs (without DA) or with the analysed SM were compared to measure of the impact of the satellite information. Although, NNSM DA has an overall neutral impact in the forecast in the Tropics, a significant positive impact was found in other areas and periods, especially in regions with limited in situ information. The joint NNSM, T2m and RH2m DA improves the forecast for all the seasons in the Southern Hemisphere. The impact is mostly due to T2m and RH2m, but SMOS NN DA alone also improves the forecast in July- September. In the Northern Hemisphere, the joint NNSM, T2m and RH2m DA improves the forecast in April-September, while NNSM alone has a significant positive effect in July-September. Furthermore, forecasting skill maps show that SMOS NNSM improves the forecast in North America and in Northern Asia for up to 72 hours lead time.

A convenient practical model for accurately estimating the total entropy (ΣSi) of atmospheric gases based on physical action is proposed. This realistic approach is fully consistent with statistical mechanics, but reinterprets its partition functions as measures of translational, rotational and vibrational action or quantum states, to estimate the entropy. With all kinds of molecular action expressed as logarithmic functions, the total heat required for warming a chemical system from 0o K (ΣSiT) to a given temperature and pressure can be computed, yielding results identical with published experimental third law values of entropy. All thermodynamic properties of gases including entropy, enthalpy, Gibbs energy and Helmholtz energy are directly estimated using simple algorithms based on simple molecular and physical properties, without resource to tables of standard values; both free energies are measures of quantum field states and of minimal statistical degeneracy, decreasing with temperature and declining density. We propose that this more realistic approach has heuristic value for thermodynamic computation of atmospheric profiles, based on steady state heat flows equilibrating with gravity. Potentially, this application of an action principle can provide better understanding of emergent properties of many natural or evolving complex systems, including modelling of predictions for global warming.

Stretching along the border of North Dakota and Minnesota, The Red River Valley (RRV) of the North has the highest frequency of reported blizzards within the contiguous United States. Despite the numerous impacts these events have, few systematic studies exist discussing the meteorological properties of blizzards. As a result, forecasting these events and lesser blowing snow events is an ongoing forecast challenge. This study presents a climatology of atmospheric patterns associated with RRV blizzards for the winter seasons of 1979-1980 to 2017-2018. Patterns were identified using subjective and objective techniques using meteorological fields from the North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR). The RRV experiences on average, 2.6 events per year. Blizzard frequency is bimodal with peaks occurring in December and March. The events can largely be typed into four meteorological categories dependent on the forcing that drives the blizzard: Alberta Clippers, Arctic Fronts, Colorado Lows, and Hybrids. Objective classification of these blizzards using a competitive neural network known as the Self-Organizing Map (SOM) demonstrates that gross segregation of the events can be achieved with a small (8-class) map. This implies that objective analysis techniques can be used to identify these events in weather and climate model output that may aid future forecasting and risk assessment projects.

Relationships between drought and fire danger indices are examined to 1) incorporate fire risk information into the National Integrated Drought Information System California-Nevada Drought Early Warning System and 2) provide a baseline analysis for application of drought indices into a fire risk management framework. We analyzed four drought indices that incorporate precipitation and evaporative demand (E₀) and three fire indices that reflect fuel moisture and potential fire intensity. Seasonally averaged fire danger indices were most strongly correlated to multi-scalar drought indices that use E₀ (the Evaporative Demand Drought Index [EDDI] and Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index [SPEI]) at approximately annual time scales that reflect buildup of antecedent drought conditions. Results indicate that EDDI and SPEI can inform seasonal fire potential outlooks at the beginning of summer. An E₀ decomposition case study of conditions prior to the Tubbs Fire in Northern California indicate high E₀ (97th percentile) driven predominantly by low humidity signaled increased fire potential several days before the start of the fire. Initial use of EDDI by fire management groups during summer and fall 2018 highlights several value-added applications, including seasonal fire potential outlooks, funding fire severity level requests, and assessing set-up conditions prior to large, explosive fire cases.

We evaluate the complexity of Colombian climate from extreme behavior of gauge temperature and precipitation, using the the novel Tsallis' non-extensive entropy principle based on physical information through the q-index. We find the spatial structure of non additive universal categories (q-index) and compare with some complex systems with the potential to have some degree of dynamical affinity. Our results evidence the great dynamical variability of regional climate expressed in the large range of values of $q$-index, and the high degree of non-extensitivity for both temperature and precipitation.

Relationships between drought and fire danger indices are examined to 1) incorporate fire risk information into the National Integrated Drought Information System California-Nevada Drought Early Warning System and 2) provide a baseline analysis for application of drought indices into a fire risk management framework. We analyzed four drought indices that incorporate precipitation and evaporative demand (E₀) and three fire indices that reflect fuel moisture and potential fire intensity. Seasonally averaged fire danger indices were most strongly correlated to multi-scalar drought indices that use E₀ (the Evaporative Demand Drought Index [EDDI] and Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index [SPEI]) at approximately annual time scales that reflect buildup of antecedent drought conditions. Results indicate that EDDI and SPEI can inform seasonal fire potential outlooks at the beginning of summer. An E₀ decomposition case study of conditions prior to the Tubbs Fire in Northern California indicate high E₀ (97th percentile) driven predominantly by low humidity signaled increased fire potential several days before the start of the fire. Initial use of EDDI by fire management groups during summer and fall 2018 highlights several value-added applications, including seasonal fire potential outlooks, funding fire severity level requests, and assessing set-up conditions prior to large, explosive fire cases.

Upper Blue Nile basin (UBNB) is the water tower of Ethiopia and downstream countries. It contributes significant moistures to the surrounding atmosphere. However, the contribution of the moisture from the basin to the precipitation in the area is not well documented. Therefore, this paper is aimed at seasonal variation of upper Blue Nile basin moisture budget and the global moistures in the role of temporal and spatial precipitation variability. To this end, we used European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecast (ECMWF) data from 1979-2017. The UBNB moisture contributed precipitation in the central parts of the study area during the summer season, while in spring; it contributed in southern part of the study area. Northwest part of the study area got precipitation from the basin moistures during autumn season. The recycling ratios for four seasons (summer, autumn, spring and winter) were 9.70%, 16.33%, 19.01%, and 35.30% respectively. The maximum amount of precipitation is extracted from the local moistures during winter season. The annual average value of recycling ratio was found 20.11%. Hence, we concluded that UBNB moisture budget had lesser contribution of precipitation over the study area. It rather contributed a significant precipitation to the neighboring countries such as Egypt and Sudan. Further studies on moisture budget are required to explain this phenomenon in the context of Ethiopia.

Upper Blue Nile basin (UBNB) is the water tower of Ethiopia and downstream countries. It contributes significant moistures to the surrounding atmosphere. However, the contribution of the moisture from the basin to the precipitation in the area is not well documented. Therefore, this paper is aimed at seasonal variation of upper Blue Nile basin moisture budget and the global moistures in the role of temporal and spatial precipitation variability. To this end, we used European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecast (ECMWF) data from 1979-2017. The UBNB moisture contributed precipitation in the central parts of the study area during the summer season, while in spring; it contributed in southern part of the study area. Northwest part of the study area got precipitation from the basin moistures during autumn season. The recycling ratios for four seasons (summer, autumn, spring and winter) were 9.70%, 16.33%, 19.01%, and 35.30% respectively. The maximum amount of precipitation is extracted from the local moistures during winter season. The annual average value of recycling ratio was found 20.11%. Hence, we concluded that UBNB moisture budget had lesser contribution of precipitation over the study area. It rather contributed a significant precipitation to the neighboring countries such as Egypt and Sudan. Further studies on moisture budget are required to explain this phenomenon in the context of Ethiopia.

The Convective Rainfall Rate from Cloud Physical Properties (CRPh) for Meteosat Second Generation Satellites is a day-only precipitation algorithm developed at the Spanish Meteorological Agency (AEMET) for EUMETSAT’ Satellite Application Facility in support to Nowcasting and Very Short Range Forecasting (NWC SAF). It is therefore mainly intended to provide input for monitoring and near-real-time forecasts for the next few hours. This paper critically discusses the theoretical basis of the algorithm with special emphasis in the empirical values and assumptions in the microphysics of precipitation and compares the performances of the CRPh with its antecessor, the Convective Rainfall Rate algorithm (CRR), using an object-based method. The analyses show that AEMET’s CRPh is physically consistent and that outperforms the CRR. The applicability of the algorithm for nowcasting and the challenges to evolve the product to an all-day algorithm are also presented.

The main objective of this study is to search better prediction result of rainy seasonal rainfall (15 June-15 August). A correlation between rainfall of Bengali rainy seasons at Rangpur, Dhaka, Barisal and Sylhet and global sea surface temperature (SST) of different areas of the world was studied by using the both data of 1975- 2008 years with the help of the Climate Predictability Tool (CPT) to find more positive correlated SST with observed rainfall and use as predictor for giving the prediction of the year 2009. Using SST of one month before rainy season as predictor, the positive deviation of predicted rainfall from observed rainfall was 1.34 mm/day at Sylhet and 0.9 mm/day at Dhaka. The negative deviation of mean rainfall was 1.16 mm/day at Rangpur and 1.10 mm/day at Barisal. Again, using of starting one month SST of rainy season as predictor, positive deviation of predicted rainfall from observed rainfall was 4.03 mm/day at Sylhet. The positive deviation of daily mean rainfall was found 6.58 mm/day at Dhaka and 6.23 mm/day over southern Bangladesh. The study reveals that sea surface temperature (SST) of one month before rainy season was better predictor than SST of starting month of rainy season.

Electric and/or magnetic fields are generated by stationary charges, uniformly moving charges and accelerating charges. These field components are described in the literature as static fields, velocity fields (or generalized Coulomb field) and radiation fields (or acceleration fields), respectively. In the literature, the electromagnetic fields generated by lightning return strokes are presented using the field components associated with short dipoles and in this description the one to one association of the electromagnetic field terms with the physical process that gives rise to them is lost. In this paper, we will derive expressions for the electromagnetic fields using field equations associated with accelerating (and moving) charges and separate the resulting fields into static, velocity and radiation fields. The results illustrates how the radiation fields emanating from the lightning channel give rise to field terms varying as inverse of distance and distance squired, the velocity fields generating field terms varying as inverse of distance squired and the static fields generating fields components varying as inverse of distance squired and distance cube. These field components depend explicitly on the speed of propagation of the current pulse. However, the total field does not depend explicitly on the speed of propagation of the current pulse. It is shown that these field components can be combined to generate the field components pertinent to the dipole technique. However, in this conversion process the connection of the field components to the physical process taking place at the source that generate these fields (i.e. static charges, uniformly moving charges and accelerating charges) is lost.    

We propose a new technique to prepare statistically-robust benchmarking data for evaluating chemical transport model meteorology and air quality parameters within the urban boundary layer. The approach employs atmospheric class-typing, using nocturnal radon measurements to assign atmospheric mixing classes, and can be applied temporally (across the diurnal cycle), or spatially (to create angular distributions of pollutants as a top-down constraint on emissions inventories). In this study only a short (<1-month) campaign is used, but grouping of the relative mixing classes based on nocturnal mean radon concentrations can be adjusted according to dataset length (i.e., number of days per category), or desired range of within-class variability. Calculating hourly distributions of observed and simulated values across diurnal composites of each class-type helps to: (i) bridge the gap between scales of simulation and observation, (ii) represent the variability associated with spatial and temporal heterogeneity of sources and meteorology without being confused by it, and (iii) provide an objective way to group results over whole diurnal cycles that separates ‘natural complicating factors’ (synoptic non-stationarity, rainfall, mesoscale motions, extreme stability, etc.) from problems related to parameterizations, or between-model differences. We demonstrate the utility of this technique using output from a suite of seven contemporary regional forecast and chemical transport models. Meteorological model skill varied across the diurnal cycle for all models, with an additional dependence on the atmospheric mixing class that varied between models. From an air quality perspective, model skill regarding the duration and magnitude of morning and evening “rush hour” pollution events varied strongly as a function of mixing class. Model skill was typically the lowest when public exposure would have been the highest, which has important implications for assessing potential health risks in new and rapidly evolving urban regions, and also for prioritizing the areas of model improvement for future applications.

Earth atmosphere is almost opaque in the infrared: about 374 W/m² is absorbed by the atmosphere out of 396 W/m² surface upward longwave radiation, and only about 22 W/m² leaves the system unabsorbed in the atmospheric window. This makes rise to the idea to approximate the annual global mean energy flow system from a simple idealized greenhouse model, where the surface is surrounded by a single-layer shortwave (SW) transparent, longwave (LW) opaque, non-turbulent atmosphere. The energy flows in this geometry can be described by elementary arithmetic relationships. Starting from this model, the realistic Earth’s atmosphere can be achieved by introducing partial atmospheric SW opacity, partial atmospheric LW transparency and turbulent fluxes during the course of the deduction. The resulted global mean energy flow system is then compared to several data sets such as satellite observations from the CERES mission; estimates using direct surface observations and climate models; global energy and water cycle assessments; and independent detailed clear-sky radiative transfer computations. We find that the deduction from this idealized model approximates the real values in Earth energy budget with reasonable accuracy: the deduced fluxes and the observed ones are consistent within the acknowledged error of observations; while fundamental features of the initial geometry like special ratios and definite relationships between the fluxes are preserved.

This paper contributes to the understating of tornadoes in South Africa using case study analysis. In South Africa tornadoes are the recurring phenomenon (the climatology) but so far they have received less attention. Damages from storms itself (tornadoes inclusive) are significant in South Africa relative to other weather-related disasters for example floods, heat waves, and droughts. For their understanding, a case study approach was adopted in the current study. Data were in courtesy of the following, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), National Centers for Environmental Predictions (NCEP), Eumetsat Germany, and South African Weather Service (SAWS). The aim of the study was to provide an overview of the occurrence of tornadoes in South Africa using a Klerksdorp tornado, which occurred on March 4, 2007, Northwest Province in South Africa. From the case study analysis, the tornado was associated with the cold front and cut-off low (both are extratropical circulation) which were the dominant weather systems of the day. Therefore we conclude that, a case study approach may be the best way to study events of these nature for a more informed decision, for example, issuing an early warning system.  In future, case studies, for example, involving interaction between extratropical and tropical circulation will also be an interesting study.

This paper contributes to the understating of tornadoes in South Africa using case study analysis. In South Africa tornadoes are the recurring phenomenon (the climatology) but they have received less attention. Damages from storms itself (tornadoes inclusive) are significant in South Africa relative to other weather-related disasters for example floods, heat waves, and droughts. Case study approach was adopted in the current study. Data were in the courtesy of the following, National Oceanic and Administration (NOOA), National Centers for Environmental Protections (NCEP), Eumetsat, and South African weather Service. The aim of the study was to provide an overview of the occurrence of tornadoes in South Africa using a case study. From the case study analysis, the tornadoes at Klerksdorp on March 4, 2007, was associated with the cold frontal systems and the cut-ff low (extratropical circulation) which were the dominant weather systems of the day. Case study approach may be the best way to study events of these nature for a more informed decision, for example, issuing an early warning system.  Case studies, for example, involving interaction between extratropical and tropical circulation may be also more informative.

Understanding the distribution in drought and floods plays an important role in disaster risk management. The present study aims to explore the trends in the standardized precipitation index and extreme precipitation days in China, as well as to estimate the economic losses they cause. We found that in the Northeast China, northern of North China and northeast of Northwest China were severely affected by drought disasters (average damaged areas were 6.44 million hectares) and the most severe drought trend was located in West China. However, in the north of East China and Central China, the northeastern of the Southwest China was severely affected by flood disasters (average damaged areas were 3.97 million hectares) and the extreme precipitation trend is increasing in the northeastern of the Southwest China. In the Yangtze River basin, there were increasing trends in terms of drought and extreme precipitation, especially in the northeastern of the Southwest China, where accompanied by severe disaster losses. By combining the trends in drought and extreme precipitation days with the distribution of damaged areas, we found that the increasing trend in droughts shifted gradually from north to south, especially in the Southwest China, and the increasing trend in extreme precipitation gradually shifted from south to north.

Thunderstorm electrification has been studied for hundreds of years. Several mechanisms have been proposed to elucidate the electrification, including convective charging, inductive precipitation charging, and ice crystal-graupel collision charging. Field observations and model studies have demonstrated the vital roles that graupel and ice crystals play in the electrification, but the mechanism of the collision charging is still unclear. The fundamental essence of relative growth rate theory used for explaining the tripole charge structure in thunderclouds also needs a further exploration. We analyze the processes of ice crystal-graupel collision charging from charge migration inside hydrometeors to charge separation between two hydrometeors. The driving effects of temperature gradient and chemical potential gradient in charge migration are clarified, as well as the applicability of the relative growth rate theory, thermoelectric effect and surface tension gradient in different humidities. Based on the understanding from these electrification mechanisms, we propose that the essence of charge separation is driven by non-thermal equilibrium, and future studies on thunderstorm electrification should focus on the dynamical non-thermal equilibrium of cloud particles.

Analysis of the hourly Canadian Prairie data for the past 60 years has transformed our quantitative understanding of land-atmosphere-cloud coupling. The key reason is that trained observers made hourly estimates of opaque cloud fraction that obscures the sun, moon or stars, following the same protocol for 60 years at all stations. These 24 daily estimates of opaque cloud data are of sufficient quality that they can be calibrated against Baseline Surface Radiation Network data to give the climatology of the daily short-wave, longwave and total cloud forcing (SWCF, LWCF and CF). This key radiative forcing has not been available previously for climate datasets. Net cloud radiative forcing reverses sign from negative in the warm season to positive in the cold season, when reflective snow reduces the negative SWCF below the positive LWCF. This in turn leads to a large climate discontinuity with snow cover, with a systematic cooling of 10°C or more with snow cover. In addition, snow cover transforms the coupling between cloud cover and the diurnal range of temperature. In the warm season, maximum temperature increases with decreasing cloud, while minimum temperature barely changes; while in the cold season with snow cover, maximum temperature decreases with decreasing cloud and minimum temperature decreases even more. In the warm season, the diurnal ranges of temperature, relative humidity, equivalent potential temperature and the pressure height of the lifting condensation level are all tightly coupled to opaque cloud cover. Given over 600 station-years of hourly data, we are able to extract, perhaps for the first time, the coupling between cloud forcing and the warm season imbalance of the diurnal cycle; which changes monotonically from a warming and drying under clear skies to a cooling and moistening under cloudy skies with precipitation. Because we have the daily cloud radiative forci, which is large, we are able to show that the memory of water storage anomalies, from precipitation and the snowpack, goes back many months. The spring climatology shows the memory of snowfall back through the entire winter, and the memory in summer goes back to the months of snowmelt. Lagged precipitation anomalies modify the thermodynamic coupling of the diurnal cycle to the cloud forcing, and shift the diurnal cycle of mixing ratio which has a double peak. The seasonal extraction of the surface total water storage is a large damping of the interannual variability of precipitation anomalies in the growing season. The large land-use change from summer fallow to intensive cropping, which peaked in the early 1990s, has led to a coupled climate response that has cooled and moistened the growing season, lowering cloud-base, increasing equivalent potential temperature, and increasing precipitation. We show a simplified energy balance of the Prairies during the growing season and its dependence on reflective cloud.

Mixing layer height (MLH) is a crucial parameter for air quality modelling that is still not routinely measured. Common methods for MLH determination use atmospheric profiles recorded by radiosonde but they suffer from course temporal resolution since balloon launching is only twice a day. Recently cheap ceilometers are gaining popularity in the retrieval of MLH diurnal evolution based on aerosol profiles. This study presents a comparison of a proprietary (Jenoptik) and a free available (STRAT) algorithms to retrieve MLH diurnal cycle. The comparison is accomplished in summer season over urban area and radiosonde data is used to estimate MLHs according to parcel, lapse rate, and Richardson methods (the last algorithm is used as a reference in the study) in addition. It was found that STRAT and Jenoptik give lower MLH than radiosonde with an underestimation of about 150m and 650m respectively. Additionally, STRAT showed reasonable performance in tracking of MLH diurnal evolution. Daily MLH maximum of about 2000m was found in the late afternoon (18-19 LT). In contrast, Jenoptik algorithm showed more weaknesses, mainly attributed to its real-time operation and independent processing of a single profile. At night and during morning transition period, both lidar-based methods showed difficulties as MLH was often in the ceilometer’s incomplete overlapping zone so residual or advected aerosol layers aloft were misleadingly reported as mixing layer (ML).

For water-stressed regions like Iran improving the effectiveness and productivity of agricultural water-use is of utmost importance due to climate change and unsustainable demands. Therefore, a hydro-economic model has been developed here for the Zarrine River Basin with the central concept of that demands are value-sensitive functions, where quantities of water-uses at different locations and times have a changeable economic benefits. To do this, the potential crop yields and the surface and groundwater resources, especially Boukan Dam inflow are simulated using the hydrologic model, SWAT, based on predicted climatic scenarios i.e. quantile mapping-downscaled projections. Then, to allocate the agricultural water based on the agro- economic crop water productivity (AEWP) of crops, a basin-wide water management tool, MODSIM, is customized. Next, a simulation- optimization model has been developed using a coupled CSPSO-MODSIM, to optimize the total AEWP, considering climatic impact and crop pattern scenarios, for 2020-2038, 2050-2068 and 2080-2098 periods. Finally, the optimum crop pattern and crop water irrigation depths are presented for different RCPs and periods. The results indicated that this approach will improve considerably the AEWPs and decrease the agricultural water-use up to 40%. Thus, this integrated model is able to support water authorities and other stakeholder in a water-scarce basin, as is the study area.

This study presents a novel approach for the early detection of developing thunderstorms. To date, methods for the detection of developing thunderstorms usually rely on accurate atmospheric motion vectors (AMVs) for the estimation of cooling rate of convective clouds, which corresponds to the updraft strength of the cloud objects. In this study we present a method for the estimation of the updraft strength that does not rely on AMVs. The updraft strength is derived directly from the satellite observations in the SEVIRI water vapor channels. For this purpose the absolute value of the vector product of two vectors derived from the observed radiances emitted by the water vapor channels in 2 subsequent satellite images is calculated. The x and y components of the vectors consists of the temporal change of the spatial brightness temperature gradients in x- and y-direction, the z component consists of the temporal variation of the brightness temperature at pixel level. The absolute value of the vector product is referred to as normalized updraft strength (NUS). The performance of the method has been investigated for 2 summer periods in 2016 and 2017 by validation with lightning data. Values of the Critical Success Index (CSI) of about 66 % for the 2016 period and 62 % for the 2017 period demonstrate the good performance of the method. The POD values for the experiments with the highest CSI values are 90.3 for 2016 period and 87.6 for the 2017 period, respectively The corresponding FAR values are 28.2% (2016) and 32.5 % (2017), respectively. In summary, the method has the potential to reduce the forecast lead time significantly, and can be quite useful in regions without a well maintained radar network.

Data on the atmospheric gas concentrations can be received with high efficiency and on a large spatial scale only from remote laser sounding instruments. The remote laser techniques with the use of lidars are widely used in the study of the atmosphere and control of its state. The aims of this work are the design and test in numerical and field experiments of a DIAL OPO lidar system based on KTA and KTP crystals for gas analysis of the atmosphere. Lidar measurements of atmospheric gases in the near/mid infrared region have been numerically simulated. The differential absorption lidar system based on optical parametric oscillators with nonlinear KTA and KTP crystals which allow laser radiation tuning both in the near and in the middle IR spectral region is described; it allows tuning laser radiation in the near/mid-IR wavelength regions. Lidar echo signals have been experimentally recorded in the 1.8–2.5 and 3–4 m wavelength ranges. The results of H2O and CO2 profile measurements along the surface sounding path are presented.

A forecasting scheme of the thermal updraft velocity based on a theoretical model and data collected from flights records at gliding competitions, is presented. The forecasting scheme was based on the hypothesis that there is linear relationship between the overheat function at ground surface and the temperature difference between soil and air. The proportionality factor of this relationship was determined experimentally using observations recorded during gliding flights. The results showed that based on this simple scheme forecasting thermal convection is possible at any geographical location.

Polar mesocyclones (MCs) are small marine atmospheric vortices. The class of intense MCs, called polar lows, are accompanied by extremely strong surface winds and heat fluxes and thus largely influencing deep ocean water formation in the polar regions. Accurate detection of polar mesocyclones in high-resolution satellite data, while challenging, is a time-consuming task, when performed manually. Existing algorithms for the automatic detection of polar mesocyclones are based on the conventional analysis of patterns of cloudiness and involve different empirically defined thresholds of geophysical variables. As a result, various detection methods typically reveal very different results when applied to a single dataset. We develop a conceptually novel approach for the detection of MCs based on the use of deep convolutional neural networks (DCNNs). As a first step, we demonstrate that DCNN model is capable of performing binary classification of 500x500km patches of satellite images regarding MC patterns presence in it. The training dataset is based on the reference database of MCs manually tracked in the Southern Hemisphere from satellite mosaics. We use a subset of this database with MC diameters falling in the range of 200-400 km. This dataset is further used for testing several different DCNN setups, specifically, DCNN built “from scratch”, DCNN based on VGG16 pre-trained weights also engaging the Transfer Learning technique, and DCNN based on VGG16 with Fine Tuning technique. Each of these networks is further applied to both infrared (IR) and a combination of infrared and water vapor (IR+WV) satellite imagery. The best skills (97% in terms of the binary classification accuracy score) is achieved with the model that averages the estimates of the ensemble of different DCNNs. The algorithm can be further extended to the automatic identification and tracking numerical scheme and applied to other atmospheric phenomena characterized by a distinct signature in satellite imagery.

Turbulent flows over and within forest canopies have recently been modeled with success using Large Eddy Simulations (LES). Validation exercises against experimental data suggest that models can be applied with a high degree of confidence for many applications, mechanical and physiological plant/atmosphere interaction analysis, seed or pollen dispersal, wildfire spread and firebrand transport, or investigation of causes of eddy-covariance technique bias. Long distances required for shear-induced turbulence to equilibrate, result in the widespread use of cyclic boundary conditions in LES atmospheric boundary layer studies. Vegetation drag dissipates air momentum in the atmosphere, but equilibrium is often achieved through compensatory momentum source, supplied by macro-scale pressure gradient forcing. Unfortunately, both classical Ekman balance or simple spatially-constant pressure gradient techniques for implementing this forcing have major drawbacks in the context of cyclic boundary conditions for the applications listed above. Among them, it is difficult to specify aspects of the mean velocity profile such as a specific desired wind velocity and direction at a reference height. In the present paper, we propose a new technique for capturing the effects of  a large-scale pressure gradient force (LSPGF) that can be used at stand scale and enables  simulation of realistic and specifiable wind fields. Several variants of this LSPGF are developed and analyzed here and validated against experimental data. Although this LSPGF technique is developed in the context of HIGRAD/FIRETEC wildfire simulations, LSPGF can be used for any LES wind modeling application aimed at generating detailed stand-scale wind fields with resolved turbulence and shear profiles consistent with vegetation structure in the boundary layer.

Improving air quality and reducing human exposure to unhealthy levels of airborne chemicals are important global missions, particularly in China. Satellite remote sensing offers a powerful tool to examine regional trends in NO2, thus providing a direct measure of key parameters that strongly affect surface air quality. To accurately resolve spatial gradients in NO2 concentration using satellite observations and thus understand local and regional aspects of air quality, a priori input data at sufficiently high spatial and temporal resolution to account for pixel-to-pixel variability in the characteristics of the land and atmosphere are required. In this paper, we adapt the Berkeley High Resolution product (BEHR v3.0A, v3.0B and v3.0C) and meteorological outputs from the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to describe column NO2 in southern China. The BEHR approach is particularly useful for places with large spatial variabilities and terrain height differences such as China. We retrieved tropospheric NO2 vertical column density (TVCD) within part of southern China, for four seasons of 2015, based upon satellite datasets from Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI). Retrieval results are validated by comparing with MAX-DOAS tropospheric column measurements conducted in Guangzhou. BEHR retrieval algorithms are more consistent with MAX-DOAS measurements than OMI-NASA retrieval, opening new windows into research questions that require high spatial resolution, for example retrieving NO2 vertical column and ground pollutant concentration in China and other countries.

Towards the investigation and further understanding of the development and propagation of Medicanes, this study explores the forecasting capability of WRF model in case of cyclone “Cleopatra” which affected with extreme rainfall and strong winds Sardinia and Calabria, Italy, in November 2013.  This cyclone was unusual in that it developed a warm core but did not fulfill its transformation into a tropical-like cyclone because its core did not expand high enough in the tropospnere. The ERA5 reanalysis dataset was dynamically downscaled from 31 km spatial horizontal resolution to 9 km using WRF model. The methodology consists of; firstly, an extensive physical parameterization schemes sensitivity test and consequently, a short-range ensemble forecasting implementation based on the highest statistical scored physics configuration. All simulation results were validated against surface observations and remote sensing products. Subsequently, the modeled cyclone trajectories are compared to satellite imagery derived from EUMETSAT-SEVIRI gridded data. The findings of the conducted analysis illustrate that ensemble average displays significant difference in performance compared to any of the deterministic runs individually, suggesting that ensemble forecasts will be beneficial in studies assessing cyclonic events in the Mediterranean region.

Polar mesocyclones (MCs) are small marine atmospheric vortices. The class of intense MCs, called polar lows, are accompanied by extremely strong surface winds and heat fluxes and thus largely influencing deep ocean water formation in the polar regions. Accurate detection of polar mesocyclones in high-resolution satellite data, while challenging, is a time-consuming task, when performed manually. Existing algorithms for the automatic detection of polar mesocyclones are based on the conventional analysis of patterns of cloudiness and involve different empirically defined thresholds of geophysical variables. As a result, various detection methods typically reveal very different results when applied to a single dataset. We present a conceptually novel approach for the detection of MCs based on the use of deep convolutional neural networks (DCNNs). We demonstrate that DCNN model is capable of performing binary classification of 500x500km patches of satellite images regarding MC patterns presence in it. The training dataset is based on the reference database of MCs manually tracked in the Southern Hemisphere from satellite mosaics. This dataset is further used for testing several different DCNN setups, specifically, DCNN built “from scratch”, DCNN based on VGG16 pre-trained weights also engaging the Transfer Learning technique, and DCNN based on VGG16 with Fine Tuning technique. Each of these networks is further applied to both infrared (IR) and a combination of infrared and water vapor (IR+WV) satellite imagery. The best skills (97% in terms of the binary classification accuracy score) is achieved with the model that averages the estimates of the ensemble of different DCNNs. The algorithm can be further extended to the automatic identification and tracking numerical scheme and applied to other atmospheric phenomena characterized by a distinct signature in satellite imagery.

Here we present an overview of speleothem δ18O records from South America, which mostly are available in the Speleothem Isotopes Synthesis and Analysis (SISAL_v1) database. South American tropical and subtropical δ18O time series are primarily interpreted as being driven by the amount effect and, consequently show the past history of the convection intensity of convergence zones such as the Intertropical Convergence Zone and the South America Monsoon System. We investigate past hydroclimate scenarios in South America related to the South American Monsoon System in three different time scales: Late Pleistocene, Holocene and the last two millennia. The precession driven insolation is the main driver of convective variability over the continent during the last 250 kyrs, including the Holocene period. However a dipole is observed between the west and east portions of the continent. Records located in the central region of Brazil appear to be weakly affected by insolation driven variability and more susceptible to the South Atlantic Convergence Zone. Cold episodic events in Northern Hemisphere increase the activity of the South American Monsoon System on all time scales, in turn increasing rainfall amounts in South America, as was documented during Heinrich events in the late Pleistocene and Bond events in the Holocene, as well as during the Little Ice Age.

Global wind observations are fundamental for studying weather and climate dynamics. Most wind measurements come from atmospheric motion vectors (AMVs) by tracking the displacement of cloud or water vapor features. These AMVs generally rely on thermal infrared (IR) techniques for their height assignments, which are subject to large uncertainties in the presence of weak or reversed vertical temperature gradients around the planetary boundary layer (PBL) and with tropopause folding. Stereo imaging can overcome the height assignment problem using geometric parallax for feature height determination. In this study we develop a stereo 3D-Wind algorithm to simultaneously retrieve AMV and height from geostationary (GEO) and low Earth orbit (LEO) satellite imagery and apply it to collocated Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) and Multi-angle Imaging SpectroRadiometer (MISR) imagery. The new algorithm improves AMV and height relative to products from GOES or MISR alone, with an estimated accuracy of <0.5 m/s in AMV and <200 m in height with 2.2 km sampling. The algorithm can be generalized to other LEO-GEO or GEO-GEO combinations for greater spatiotemporal coverage. The technique demonstrated with MISR and GOES has important implications for future high-quality AMV observations, for which a low-cost constellation of CubeSats can play a vital role.

This study focusses on identifying a set of representative future climate projections for the Upper Indus Basin (UIB). Although a large number of GCM’s predictor sets are nowadays available in the CMIP5 archive, the issue of their reliability for specific regions must still be confronted. This situation makes it imperative to sort out the most appropriate, single or small-ensemble set of GCMs for the assessment of climate change impacts in a region. Here a set of different approaches is adopted and applied for a step-wise shortlist and selection of appropriate climate models for the UIB under two RCPs: RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5, based on, a) range of projected mean changes, b) range of projected extreme changes, and c) skill in reproducing the past climate. Furthermore, because of higher uncertainties in climate projection for high mountainous regions like the UIB, a wider range of future GCM climate projections is considered by using all possible future extreme scenarios (wet-warm, wet-cold, dry-warm, dry-cold). Based on this two-fold procedure, a limited number of climate models is pre-selected, out of which the final selection is done by assigning ranks to the weighted score for each of the mentioned selection criteria. The dynamically downscaled climate projections from the Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) available for the top-ranked GCMs are further statistically downscaled (bias-corrected) over the UIB. The downscaled projections up to year 2100 indicate temperature increases ranging between 2.3 °C and 9.0 °C and precipitation changes that range, from a slight annual increase of 2.2% under the drier scenarios,  to as high as 15.9% for the wet scenarios.  Moreover, for all scenarios, the future precipitation will be more extreme, as the probability of wet days will decrease, while, at the same time, the precipitation intensities will increase. The spatial distribution of the downscaled predictors across the UIB also shows similar patterns for all scenarios, with a distinct precipitation decrease over the south-eastern parts of the basin, but an increase in the northeastern parts. These two features are particularly intense for the “Dry-Warm” and the “Median” scenarios over the late 21st century.

Nowadays a recognized need for accurate observations of atmospheric aerosols (AEs) and reactive gases (RGs) exists in the framework of regional, national and global near-surface networks based on permanent or mobile measurement stations. In this context, a paramount and not-trivial issue is related to the correct execution of continuous sampling of ambient air and its subsequent distribution to measurement analyzers hosted inside the stations. Sampling artifacts must be minimized for obtaining reliable pictures of ambient air composition. To respond to this need, a suite of novel “smart” and relatively low-cost systems for the continuous sampling of ambient air was developed in the framework of the Project I-AMICA (2012 – 2015, www.i-amica.eu). These systems were designed to execute AE and RG measurements according with WMO/GAW and ACTRIS recommendations and standard operation procedures. A particular attention was dedicated to the stabilization and control of the sampling flow rates and temperatures. The analysis of one full year of operations at the WMO/GAW regional station of Capo Granitola (GAW ID: CGR, Italy), allowed to conclude that these systems are effective in meeting the technical requirements for correct execution of AE and RG measurements

The impact of snow darkening by deposition of light absorbing aerosols (LAAs) on snow cover over the Himalaya-Tibetan-Plateau (HTP) and influence on the Asian monsoon are investigated using the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System Model Version 5 (GEOS-5). We find that during April-May-June, deposition of LAAs on snow leads to a reduction in surface albedo, initiating a sequence of feedback processes, starting with increased surface solar radiation, rapid snowmelt in HTP and warming of the surface and upper troposphere, followed by enhanced low-level southwesterlies and increased dust loading over the Himalayas-Indo-Gangetic Plain. The warming is amplified by increased dust aerosol heating, and subsequently amplified by latent heating from enhanced precipitation over the Himalaya foothills and northern India, via the Elevated Heat Pump (EHP) effect during June-July-August. The reduced snow cover in the HTP anchors the enhanced heating over the Tibetan Plateau and its southern slopes, in conjunction with an enhancement of the Tibetan Anticyclone, and the development of an anomalous Rossby wavetrain over East Asia, leading to weakening of the subtropical westerly jet, and northward displacement and intensification of the Mei-Yu rainbelt. Our results suggest that atmosphere-land heating by LAAs, particularly desert dust play a fundamental role in physical processes underpinning the snow-monsoon relationship proposed by Blandford more than a century ago.

Abstract: Characterization the 3-D structure of clouds is needed for a more complete understanding of the Earth's radiative and latent heat fluxes. Here we develop and explore a “ray casting” algorithm applied to the Multi-angle Imaging SpectroRadiometer (MISR) on board the Terra satellite, to reconstruct 3-D cloud volumes for observed clouds. The ray casting algorithm is first applied to geometrically simple synthetic clouds to show that, under the assumption of perfect, clear-conservative cloud masks, the reconstruction method yields overestimation whose magnitude depends on the cloud geometry and the resolution of the reconstruction grid relative to the image pixel resolution. The method is then applied to two select MISR scenes, fully accounting for MISR’s viewing geometry for reconstructions over the Earth’s ellipsoidal surface. The MISR Radiometric Camera-by-camera Cloud Masks at 1.1 km resolution and custom cloud masks at 275 m resolution independently derived from MISR RGB channels are used as input cloud masks. A wind correction method, termed “cloud spreading”, is devised and applied to the cloud masks to offset potential cloud movements over short time intervals (around 7 minutes at maximum) between the cameras. The MISR cloud top height product is used as a constraint to reduce the overestimation at the cloud top. The reconstruction results show that their uncertainty is significant when the wind correction is applied, and that they have more refined structures when the input cloud mask has a higher resolution. Recommendations for improving the presented cloud volume reconstructions as well as for future passive remote sensing satellite missions are discussed.

 This study shows the application of self-organizing maps (SOMs) to probabilistic forecasts of wind power generation and ramps in Japan. SOMs are applied to atmospheric variables obtained from atmospheric reanalysis over the region, thus deriving classified weather patterns (WPs). Probabilistic relationships are established between the synoptic-scale atmospheric variables over East Japan and the generation of regionally integrated wind power in East Japan. Medium-range probabilistic wind power predictions are derived by SOM, as analog ensembles based on the WPs of the multi-center ensemble forecasts. As this analog approach handles stochastic uncertainties effectively, probabilistic wind power forecasts are rapidly generated from a very large number of forecast ensembles. The use of a multi-model ensemble provides better results than a one-forecast model. The hybrid ensemble forecasts further improve the probabilistic predictability skill of wind power generation, as compared with non-hybrid methods. It is expected that long-term wind forecasts will provide better guidance to transmission grid operators. The advantage of this method is that it can include an interpretative analysis of meteorological factors for variations in renewable energy.

Polar mesocyclones (MCs) are small marine atmospheric vortices. The class of intense MCs, called polar lows, are accompanied by extremely strong surface winds and heat fluxes and thus largely influencing deep ocean water formation in the polar regions. Accurate detection of polar mesocyclones in high-resolution satellite data, while challenging, is a time-consuming task, when performed manually. Existing algorithms for the automatic detection of polar mesocyclones are based on the conventional analysis of patterns of cloudiness and involve different empirically defined thresholds of geophysical variables. As a result, various detection methods typically reveal very different results when applied to a single dataset. We present a conceptually novel approach for the detection of MCs based on the use of deep convolutional neural networks (DCNNs). We demonstrate that DCNN model is capable of performing binary classification of 500x500km patches of satellite images regarding MC patterns presence in it. The training dataset is based on the reference database of MCs manually tracked in the Southern Hemisphere from satellite mosaics. This dataset is further used for testing several different DCNN setups, specifically, DCNN built “from scratch”, DCNN based on VGG16 pre-trained weights also engaging the Transfer Learning technique, and DCNN based on VGG16 with Fine Tuning technique. Each of these networks is further applied to both infrared (IR) and a combination of infrared and water vapor (IR+WV) satellite imagery. The best skills (97% in terms of the binary classification accuracy score) is achieved with the model that averages the estimates of the ensemble of different DCNNs. The algorithm can be further extended to the automatic identification and tracking numerical scheme and applied to other atmospheric phenomena characterized by a distinct signature in satellite imagery.

The current study applied a new approach for the interpolation and regionalization of observed precipitation series to a smaller spatial scale (0.125° by 0.125° grid) across the Upper Indus Basin (UIB), with appropriate adjustments for the orographic effect and changes in glacier storage. The approach is evaluated and validated through reverse hydrology, guided by observed flows and available knowledge base. More specifically, the generated corrected precipitation data is validated by means of SWAT-modelled responses of the observed flows to the different input precipitation series (original and corrected ones). The results show that the SWAT- simulated flows using the corrected, regionalized precipitation series as input are much more in line with the observed flows than those using the uncorrected observed precipitation input for which significant underestimations are obtained.

It has been an outstanding challenge for global climate models to simulate and predict East Asia (EA) summer monsoon (EASM) rainfall. This study evaluates the dynamical hindcast skills with the newly developed Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology Earth System Model version 3.0 (NESM3.0). To improve the poor prediction of an earlier version of NESM3.0, we have modified convective parameterization schemes to suppress excessive deep convection and enhance insufficient shallow and stratiform clouds. The new version of NESM3.0 with modified parameterizations (MOD hereafter) yields significantly improved rainfall prediction in the northern and southern China but not over the Yangtze River Valley. The improved prediction is primarily attributed to the improvements in the predicted climatological summer mean rainfall and circulations, seasonal march of the subtropical rain belt, Nino 3.4 SST anomaly, and the rainfall anomalies associated with the development and decay of El Nino events. However, the MOD still has notable biases in the predicted leading mode of interannual variability of precipitation. The leading mode captures the dry (wet) anomalies over the South China Sea (northern EA) but misplaced precipitation anomalies over the Yangtze River Valley. The model can capture the interannual variation of the circulation indices very well, but the bias in the circulation-rainfall connection caused predicted rainfall errors. The results here suggest that over EA land regions, the skillful rainfall prediction relies on not only model’s capability in predicting better summer mean and seasonal march of rainfall and ENSO teleconnection with EASM, but also accurate prediction of the leading modes of interannual variability.

The present study aims to evaluate the capability of the TRMM-3B42-(V7) precipitation product to estimate appropriate precipitation rates in the Upper Indus basin (UIB) and the analysis of the dependency of the estimates’ accuracies on the time scale. To that avail statistical analyses and comparison of the TMPA- products with gauge measurements in the UIB are carried out. The dependency of the TMPA estimates’ quality on the time scale is analysed by comparisons of daily, monthly, seasonal and annual sums for the UIB. The results show considerable biases in the TMPA- (TRMM) precipitation estimates for the UIB, as well as high false alarms and miss ratios. The correlation of the TMPA- estimates with ground-based gauge data increases considerably and almost in a linear fashion with increasing temporal aggregation, i.e. time scale. The BIAS is mostly positive for the summer season, while for the winter season it is predominantly negative, thereby showing a slight over-estimation of the precipitation in summer and under-estimation in winter. The results of the study suggest that, in spite of these discrepancies between TMPA- estimates and gauge data, the use of the former in hydrological watershed modelling, endeavoured presently by the authors, may be a valuable alternative in data- scarce regions, like the UIB, but still must be taken with a grain of salt.

This study presents a pre-processing approach adopted for the radar reflectivity data assimilation and results of simulations with the Harmonie numerical weather prediction model. The method shows an improvement of precipitation prediction within the radar location area in both the rain rates and spatial pattern presentation. With the assimilation of radar data, the model simulates larger water content in the middle troposphere within the layer from 1 to 6 km, with major variations at 2.5–3 km; it also reproduces better the mesoscale belt and cell patterns of precipitation fields.

Passive microwave measurements have been available on satellites dating back to the 1970s on research satellites flown by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA). Since then, several other sensors have been flown to retrieve hydrological products for both operational weather applications (e.g., the Special Sensor Microwave/Imager–SSM/I; the Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit–AMSU) and climate applications (e.g., the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer–AMSR; the Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission Microwave Imager–TMI; the Global Precipitation Mission Microwave Imager–GMI). Here the focus is on measurements from the AMSU-A, AMSU-B and Microwave Humidity Sounder (MHS). These sensors have been in operation since 1998 with the launch of NOAA-15, and are also on board NOAA-16, -17, -18, -19 and the MetOp-A and -B satellites. A data set called the “Hydrological Bundle” is a Climate Data Record (CDR) that utilizes brightness temperatures from Fundamental CDRs to generate Thematic CDRs (TCDR). The TCDR’s include: Total Precipitable Water (TPW), Cloud Liquid Water (CLW), Sea-Ice concentration (SIC), Land surface temperature (LST), Land surface emissivity (LSE) for 23, 31, 50 GHz, rain rate (RR), snow cover (SC), ice water path (IWP), and snow water equivalent (SWE). The TCDR’s are shown to be in general good agreement with similar products from other sources such as the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) and the Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA-2). Because of the careful intercalibration of the FCDR’s, little bias is found among the different TCDR’s produced from individual NOAA and MetOp satellites, except for normal diurnal cycle differences.