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Earth Sciences, Atmospheric Science; Ekman balance - Forest canopy – Large-eddy simulation – Large-scale pressure gradient - Streaks
Online: 15 October 2018 (20:19:27 CEST)
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Turbulent flows over and within forest canopies have recently been modeled with success using Large Eddy Simulations (LES). Validation exercises against experimental data suggest that models can be applied with a high degree of confidence for many applications, mechanical and physiological plant/atmosphere interaction analysis, seed or pollen dispersal, wildfire spread and firebrand transport, or investigation of causes of eddy-covariance technique bias. Long distances required for shear-induced turbulence to equilibrate, result in the widespread use of cyclic boundary conditions in LES atmospheric boundary layer studies. Vegetation drag dissipates air momentum in the atmosphere, but equilibrium is often achieved through compensatory momentum source, supplied by macro-scale pressure gradient forcing. Unfortunately, both classical Ekman balance or simple spatially-constant pressure gradient techniques for implementing this forcing have major drawbacks in the context of cyclic boundary conditions for the applications listed above. Among them, it is difficult to specify aspects of the mean velocity profile such as a specific desired wind velocity and direction at a reference height. In the present paper, we propose a new technique for capturing the effects of a large-scale pressure gradient force (LSPGF) that can be used at stand scale and enables simulation of realistic and specifiable wind fields. Several variants of this LSPGF are developed and analyzed here and validated against experimental data. Although this LSPGF technique is developed in the context of HIGRAD/FIRETEC wildfire simulations, LSPGF can be used for any LES wind modeling application aimed at generating detailed stand-scale wind fields with resolved turbulence and shear profiles consistent with vegetation structure in the boundary layer.
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Earth Sciences, Atmospheric Science; Remote Sensing Techniques; Tropospheric NO2 Column Retrieval; Air Mass Factor (AMF); Meteorological Reformulation; MAX-DOAS measurements; Satellite Informatics
Online: 10 October 2018 (12:08:58 CEST)
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Improving air quality and reducing human exposure to unhealthy levels of airborne chemicals are important global missions, particularly in China. Satellite remote sensing offers a powerful tool to examine regional trends in NO2, thus providing a direct measure of key parameters that strongly affect surface air quality. To accurately resolve spatial gradients in NO2 concentration using satellite observations and thus understand local and regional aspects of air quality, a priori input data at sufficiently high spatial and temporal resolution to account for pixel-to-pixel variability in the characteristics of the land and atmosphere are required. In this paper, we adapt the Berkeley High Resolution product (BEHR v3.0A, v3.0B and v3.0C) and meteorological outputs from the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to describe column NO2 in southern China. The BEHR approach is particularly useful for places with large spatial variabilities and terrain height differences such as China. We retrieved tropospheric NO2 vertical column density (TVCD) within part of southern China, for four seasons of 2015, based upon satellite datasets from Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI). Retrieval results are validated by comparing with MAX-DOAS tropospheric column measurements conducted in Guangzhou. BEHR retrieval algorithms are more consistent with MAX-DOAS measurements than OMI-NASA retrieval, opening new windows into research questions that require high spatial resolution, for example retrieving NO2 vertical column and ground pollutant concentration in China and other countries.
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Earth Sciences, Atmospheric Science; WRF; Medicane; extra-tropical cyclone; hybrid cyclone; sensitivity analysis
Online: 10 October 2018 (05:43:36 CEST)
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Towards the investigation and further understanding of the development and propagation of Medicanes, this study explores the forecasting capability of WRF model in case of cyclone “Cleopatra” which affected with extreme rainfall and strong winds Sardinia and Calabria, Italy, in November 2013. This cyclone was unusual in that it developed a warm core but did not fulfill its transformation into a tropical-like cyclone because its core did not expand high enough in the tropospnere. The ERA5 reanalysis dataset was dynamically downscaled from 31 km spatial horizontal resolution to 9 km using WRF model. The methodology consists of; firstly, an extensive physical parameterization schemes sensitivity test and consequently, a short-range ensemble forecasting implementation based on the highest statistical scored physics configuration. All simulation results were validated against surface observations and remote sensing products. Subsequently, the modeled cyclone trajectories are compared to satellite imagery derived from EUMETSAT-SEVIRI gridded data. The findings of the conducted analysis illustrate that ensemble average displays significant difference in performance compared to any of the deterministic runs individually, suggesting that ensemble forecasts will be beneficial in studies assessing cyclonic events in the Mediterranean region.
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Earth Sciences, Atmospheric Science; deep learning; convolutional neural networks; polar mesocyclones; satellite data processing; pattern recognition
Online: 8 October 2018 (11:51:13 CEST)
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Polar mesocyclones (MCs) are small marine atmospheric vortices. The class of intense MCs, called polar lows, are accompanied by extremely strong surface winds and heat fluxes and thus largely influencing deep ocean water formation in the polar regions. Accurate detection of polar mesocyclones in high-resolution satellite data, while challenging, is a time-consuming task, when performed manually. Existing algorithms for the automatic detection of polar mesocyclones are based on the conventional analysis of patterns of cloudiness and involve different empirically defined thresholds of geophysical variables. As a result, various detection methods typically reveal very different results when applied to a single dataset. We present a conceptually novel approach for the detection of MCs based on the use of deep convolutional neural networks (DCNNs). We demonstrate that DCNN model is capable of performing binary classification of 500x500km patches of satellite images regarding MC patterns presence in it. The training dataset is based on the reference database of MCs manually tracked in the Southern Hemisphere from satellite mosaics. This dataset is further used for testing several different DCNN setups, specifically, DCNN built “from scratch”, DCNN based on VGG16 pre-trained weights also engaging the Transfer Learning technique, and DCNN based on VGG16 with Fine Tuning technique. Each of these networks is further applied to both infrared (IR) and a combination of infrared and water vapor (IR+WV) satellite imagery. The best skills (97% in terms of the binary classification accuracy score) is achieved with the model that averages the estimates of the ensemble of different DCNNs. The algorithm can be further extended to the automatic identification and tracking numerical scheme and applied to other atmospheric phenomena characterized by a distinct signature in satellite imagery.
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Earth Sciences, Atmospheric Science; South American Monsoon System 1; SAMS 2; SISAL 3; speleothems 4; Quaternary 5
Online: 5 October 2018 (11:43:08 CEST)
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Here we present an overview of speleothem δ18O records from South America, which mostly are available in the Speleothem Isotopes Synthesis and Analysis (SISAL_v1) database. South American tropical and subtropical δ18O time series are primarily interpreted as being driven by the amount effect and, consequently show the past history of the convection intensity of convergence zones such as the Intertropical Convergence Zone and the South America Monsoon System. We investigate past hydroclimate scenarios in South America related to the South American Monsoon System in three different time scales: Late Pleistocene, Holocene and the last two millennia. The precession driven insolation is the main driver of convective variability over the continent during the last 250 kyrs, including the Holocene period. However a dipole is observed between the west and east portions of the continent. Records located in the central region of Brazil appear to be weakly affected by insolation driven variability and more susceptible to the South Atlantic Convergence Zone. Cold episodic events in Northern Hemisphere increase the activity of the South American Monsoon System on all time scales, in turn increasing rainfall amounts in South America, as was documented during Heinrich events in the late Pleistocene and Bond events in the Holocene, as well as during the Little Ice Age.
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Earth Sciences, Atmospheric Science; 3D-Winds, atmospheric motion vectors (AMVs), MISR, GOES-R, planetary boundary layer (PBL), stereo imaging, parallax, CubeSats
Online: 4 October 2018 (16:53:55 CEST)
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Global wind observations are fundamental for studying weather and climate dynamics. Most wind measurements come from atmospheric motion vectors (AMVs) by tracking the displacement of cloud or water vapor features. These AMVs generally rely on thermal infrared (IR) techniques for their height assignments, which are subject to large uncertainties in the presence of weak or reversed vertical temperature gradients around the planetary boundary layer (PBL) and with tropopause folding. Stereo imaging can overcome the height assignment problem using geometric parallax for feature height determination. In this study we develop a stereo 3D-Wind algorithm to simultaneously retrieve AMV and height from geostationary (GEO) and low Earth orbit (LEO) satellite imagery and apply it to collocated Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) and Multi-angle Imaging SpectroRadiometer (MISR) imagery. The new algorithm improves AMV and height relative to products from GOES or MISR alone, with an estimated accuracy of <0.5 m/s in AMV and <200 m in height with 2.2 km sampling. The algorithm can be generalized to other LEO-GEO or GEO-GEO combinations for greater spatiotemporal coverage. The technique demonstrated with MISR and GOES has important implications for future high-quality AMV observations, for which a low-cost constellation of CubeSats can play a vital role.
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Earth Sciences, Atmospheric Science; GCM; RCM; CMIP5; CORDEX; climate change; climate model selection; upper Indus basin
Online: 27 September 2018 (06:01:11 CEST)
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This study focusses on identifying a set of representative future climate projections for the Upper Indus Basin (UIB). Although a large number of GCM’s predictor sets are nowadays available in the CMIP5 archive, the issue of their reliability for specific regions must still be confronted. This situation makes it imperative to sort out the most appropriate, single or small-ensemble set of GCMs for the assessment of climate change impacts in a region. Here a set of different approaches is adopted and applied for a step-wise shortlist and selection of appropriate climate models for the UIB under two RCPs: RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5, based on, a) range of projected mean changes, b) range of projected extreme changes, and c) skill in reproducing the past climate. Furthermore, because of higher uncertainties in climate projection for high mountainous regions like the UIB, a wider range of future GCM climate projections is considered by using all possible future extreme scenarios (wet-warm, wet-cold, dry-warm, dry-cold). Based on this two-fold procedure, a limited number of climate models is pre-selected, out of which the final selection is done by assigning ranks to the weighted score for each of the mentioned selection criteria. The dynamically downscaled climate projections from the Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) available for the top-ranked GCMs are further statistically downscaled (bias-corrected) over the UIB. The downscaled projections up to year 2100 indicate temperature increases ranging between 2.3 °C and 9.0 °C and precipitation changes that range, from a slight annual increase of 2.2% under the drier scenarios, to as high as 15.9% for the wet scenarios. Moreover, for all scenarios, the future precipitation will be more extreme, as the probability of wet days will decrease, while, at the same time, the precipitation intensities will increase. The spatial distribution of the downscaled predictors across the UIB also shows similar patterns for all scenarios, with a distinct precipitation decrease over the south-eastern parts of the basin, but an increase in the northeastern parts. These two features are particularly intense for the “Dry-Warm” and the “Median” scenarios over the late 21st century.
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Earth Sciences, Atmospheric Science; reactive gases; atmospheric aerosol; air sampling; smart technologies
Online: 24 September 2018 (18:47:52 CEST)
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Nowadays a recognized need for accurate observations of atmospheric aerosols (AEs) and reactive gases (RGs) exists in the framework of regional, national and global near-surface networks based on permanent or mobile measurement stations. In this context, a paramount and not-trivial issue is related to the correct execution of continuous sampling of ambient air and its subsequent distribution to measurement analyzers hosted inside the stations. Sampling artifacts must be minimized for obtaining reliable pictures of ambient air composition. To respond to this need, a suite of novel “smart” and relatively low-cost systems for the continuous sampling of ambient air was developed in the framework of the Project I-AMICA (2012 – 2015, www.i-amica.eu). These systems were designed to execute AE and RG measurements according with WMO/GAW and ACTRIS recommendations and standard operation procedures. A particular attention was dedicated to the stabilization and control of the sampling flow rates and temperatures. The analysis of one full year of operations at the WMO/GAW regional station of Capo Granitola (GAW ID: CGR, Italy), allowed to conclude that these systems are effective in meeting the technical requirements for correct execution of AE and RG measurements
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Earth Sciences, Atmospheric Science; snow-darkening, light-absorbing aerosols, dust and black carbon, elevated-heat- pump effect, snow cover–monsoon relationship, Blanford hypothesis
Online: 23 September 2018 (01:18:38 CEST)
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The impact of snow darkening by deposition of light absorbing aerosols (LAAs) on snow cover over the Himalaya-Tibetan-Plateau (HTP) and influence on the Asian monsoon are investigated using the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System Model Version 5 (GEOS-5). We find that during April-May-June, deposition of LAAs on snow leads to a reduction in surface albedo, initiating a sequence of feedback processes, starting with increased surface solar radiation, rapid snowmelt in HTP and warming of the surface and upper troposphere, followed by enhanced low-level southwesterlies and increased dust loading over the Himalayas-Indo-Gangetic Plain. The warming is amplified by increased dust aerosol heating, and subsequently amplified by latent heating from enhanced precipitation over the Himalaya foothills and northern India, via the Elevated Heat Pump (EHP) effect during June-July-August. The reduced snow cover in the HTP anchors the enhanced heating over the Tibetan Plateau and its southern slopes, in conjunction with an enhancement of the Tibetan Anticyclone, and the development of an anomalous Rossby wavetrain over East Asia, leading to weakening of the subtropical westerly jet, and northward displacement and intensification of the Mei-Yu rainbelt. Our results suggest that atmosphere-land heating by LAAs, particularly desert dust play a fundamental role in physical processes underpinning the snow-monsoon relationship proposed by Blandford more than a century ago.
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Earth Sciences, Atmospheric Science; MISR; cloud volume; cloud geometry; cloud shape; cloud boundary; cloud volume reconstruction.
Online: 23 September 2018 (01:00:20 CEST)
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Abstract: Characterization the 3-D structure of clouds is needed for a more complete understanding of the Earth's radiative and latent heat fluxes. Here we develop and explore a “ray casting” algorithm applied to the Multi-angle Imaging SpectroRadiometer (MISR) on board the Terra satellite, to reconstruct 3-D cloud volumes for observed clouds. The ray casting algorithm is first applied to geometrically simple synthetic clouds to show that, under the assumption of perfect, clear-conservative cloud masks, the reconstruction method yields overestimation whose magnitude depends on the cloud geometry and the resolution of the reconstruction grid relative to the image pixel resolution. The method is then applied to two select MISR scenes, fully accounting for MISR’s viewing geometry for reconstructions over the Earth’s ellipsoidal surface. The MISR Radiometric Camera-by-camera Cloud Masks at 1.1 km resolution and custom cloud masks at 275 m resolution independently derived from MISR RGB channels are used as input cloud masks. A wind correction method, termed “cloud spreading”, is devised and applied to the cloud masks to offset potential cloud movements over short time intervals (around 7 minutes at maximum) between the cameras. The MISR cloud top height product is used as a constraint to reduce the overestimation at the cloud top. The reconstruction results show that their uncertainty is significant when the wind correction is applied, and that they have more refined structures when the input cloud mask has a higher resolution. Recommendations for improving the presented cloud volume reconstructions as well as for future passive remote sensing satellite missions are discussed.
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Earth Sciences, Atmospheric Science; self-organizing maps; weather patterns; synoptic circulation; multi-model ensemble; wind power
Online: 20 September 2018 (10:17:46 CEST)
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This study shows the application of self-organizing maps (SOMs) to probabilistic forecasts of wind power generation and ramps in Japan. SOMs are applied to atmospheric variables obtained from atmospheric reanalysis over the region, thus deriving classified weather patterns (WPs). Probabilistic relationships are established between the synoptic-scale atmospheric variables over East Japan and the generation of regionally integrated wind power in East Japan. Medium-range probabilistic wind power predictions are derived by SOM, as analog ensembles based on the WPs of the multi-center ensemble forecasts. As this analog approach handles stochastic uncertainties effectively, probabilistic wind power forecasts are rapidly generated from a very large number of forecast ensembles. The use of a multi-model ensemble provides better results than a one-forecast model. The hybrid ensemble forecasts further improve the probabilistic predictability skill of wind power generation, as compared with non-hybrid methods. It is expected that long-term wind forecasts will provide better guidance to transmission grid operators. The advantage of this method is that it can include an interpretative analysis of meteorological factors for variations in renewable energy.
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Earth Sciences, Atmospheric Science; Precipitation estimation, Orographic correction factor (OCF), Water balance, Glacier mass balance, SWAT-hydrological model, Upper Indus Basin (UIB), reverse hydrology
Online: 13 September 2018 (15:49:01 CEST)
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The current study applied a new approach for the interpolation and regionalization of observed precipitation series to a smaller spatial scale (0.125° by 0.125° grid) across the Upper Indus Basin (UIB), with appropriate adjustments for the orographic effect and changes in glacier storage. The approach is evaluated and validated through reverse hydrology, guided by observed flows and available knowledge base. More specifically, the generated corrected precipitation data is validated by means of SWAT-modelled responses of the observed flows to the different input precipitation series (original and corrected ones). The results show that the SWAT- simulated flows using the corrected, regionalized precipitation series as input are much more in line with the observed flows than those using the uncorrected observed precipitation input for which significant underestimations are obtained.
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Earth Sciences, Atmospheric Science; East Asian summer monsoon, Seasonal prediction, dynamic prediction, summer rainfall prediction, NESM3.0, ENSO teleconnection
Online: 29 August 2018 (15:42:45 CEST)
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It has been an outstanding challenge for global climate models to simulate and predict East Asia (EA) summer monsoon (EASM) rainfall. This study evaluates the dynamical hindcast skills with the newly developed Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology Earth System Model version 3.0 (NESM3.0). To improve the poor prediction of an earlier version of NESM3.0, we have modified convective parameterization schemes to suppress excessive deep convection and enhance insufficient shallow and stratiform clouds. The new version of NESM3.0 with modified parameterizations (MOD hereafter) yields significantly improved rainfall prediction in the northern and southern China but not over the Yangtze River Valley. The improved prediction is primarily attributed to the improvements in the predicted climatological summer mean rainfall and circulations, seasonal march of the subtropical rain belt, Nino 3.4 SST anomaly, and the rainfall anomalies associated with the development and decay of El Nino events. However, the MOD still has notable biases in the predicted leading mode of interannual variability of precipitation. The leading mode captures the dry (wet) anomalies over the South China Sea (northern EA) but misplaced precipitation anomalies over the Yangtze River Valley. The model can capture the interannual variation of the circulation indices very well, but the bias in the circulation-rainfall connection caused predicted rainfall errors. The results here suggest that over EA land regions, the skillful rainfall prediction relies on not only model’s capability in predicting better summer mean and seasonal march of rainfall and ENSO teleconnection with EASM, but also accurate prediction of the leading modes of interannual variability.
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Earth Sciences, Atmospheric Science; precipitation; tropical rainfall measurement mission (TRMM); multi-satellite precipitation analysis (TMPA); upper indus basin (UIB).
Online: 19 August 2018 (05:53:47 CEST)
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The present study aims to evaluate the capability of the TRMM-3B42-(V7) precipitation product to estimate appropriate precipitation rates in the Upper Indus basin (UIB) and the analysis of the dependency of the estimates’ accuracies on the time scale. To that avail statistical analyses and comparison of the TMPA- products with gauge measurements in the UIB are carried out. The dependency of the TMPA estimates’ quality on the time scale is analysed by comparisons of daily, monthly, seasonal and annual sums for the UIB. The results show considerable biases in the TMPA- (TRMM) precipitation estimates for the UIB, as well as high false alarms and miss ratios. The correlation of the TMPA- estimates with ground-based gauge data increases considerably and almost in a linear fashion with increasing temporal aggregation, i.e. time scale. The BIAS is mostly positive for the summer season, while for the winter season it is predominantly negative, thereby showing a slight over-estimation of the precipitation in summer and under-estimation in winter. The results of the study suggest that, in spite of these discrepancies between TMPA- estimates and gauge data, the use of the former in hydrological watershed modelling, endeavoured presently by the authors, may be a valuable alternative in data- scarce regions, like the UIB, but still must be taken with a grain of salt.
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Earth Sciences, Atmospheric Science; Harmonie model; radar data assimilation; pre-processing; mesoscale precipitation patterns
Online: 3 August 2018 (14:56:15 CEST)
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This study presents a pre-processing approach adopted for the radar reflectivity data assimilation and results of simulations with the Harmonie numerical weather prediction model. The method shows an improvement of precipitation prediction within the radar location area in both the rain rates and spatial pattern presentation. With the assimilation of radar data, the model simulates larger water content in the middle troposphere within the layer from 1 to 6 km, with major variations at 2.5–3 km; it also reproduces better the mesoscale belt and cell patterns of precipitation fields.
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Earth Sciences, Atmospheric Science; Remote Sensing; Climate Data Record; Passive Microwave; Hydrology
Online: 31 July 2018 (00:11:39 CEST)
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Passive microwave measurements have been available on satellites dating back to the 1970s on research satellites flown by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA). Since then, several other sensors have been flown to retrieve hydrological products for both operational weather applications (e.g., the Special Sensor Microwave/Imager–SSM/I; the Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit–AMSU) and climate applications (e.g., the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer–AMSR; the Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission Microwave Imager–TMI; the Global Precipitation Mission Microwave Imager–GMI). Here the focus is on measurements from the AMSU-A, AMSU-B and Microwave Humidity Sounder (MHS). These sensors have been in operation since 1998 with the launch of NOAA-15, and are also on board NOAA-16, -17, -18, -19 and the MetOp-A and -B satellites. A data set called the “Hydrological Bundle” is a Climate Data Record (CDR) that utilizes brightness temperatures from Fundamental CDRs to generate Thematic CDRs (TCDR). The TCDR’s include: Total Precipitable Water (TPW), Cloud Liquid Water (CLW), Sea-Ice concentration (SIC), Land surface temperature (LST), Land surface emissivity (LSE) for 23, 31, 50 GHz, rain rate (RR), snow cover (SC), ice water path (IWP), and snow water equivalent (SWE). The TCDR’s are shown to be in general good agreement with similar products from other sources such as the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) and the Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA-2). Because of the careful intercalibration of the FCDR’s, little bias is found among the different TCDR’s produced from individual NOAA and MetOp satellites, except for normal diurnal cycle differences.
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Earth Sciences, Atmospheric Science; sea fog; data assimilation; 3DVAR; EnKF
Online: 30 July 2018 (12:08:16 CEST)
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The data assimilation method to improve sea fog forecast over the Yellow Sea is usually three-dimensional variational assimilation (3DVAR), whereas ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) has not yet been applied on this weather phenomenon. In this paper, two sea fog cases over the Yellow sea, one spread widely and the other spread narrowly along the coastal area, are studied in detail by a series of numerical experiments with 3DVAR and EnKF based on the Grid-point Statistical Interpolation (GSI) system and the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. The results show that the assimilation effect of EnKF outperforms that of 3DVAR: for the widespread-fog case, the probability of detection and equitable threat scores of the forecasted sea fog area get improved respectively by ~57.9% and ~55.5%; the sea fog of the other case completely mis-forecasted by 3DVAR is produced successfully by EnKF. These improvements of EnKF relative to 3DVAR are benefited from its flow-dependent background error, resulting in more realistic depiction of sea surface wind for the widespread-fog case and better moisture distribution for the other case in the initial conditions. More importantly, the correlation between temperature and humidity in the background error of EnKF plays a vital role in the response of moisture to the assimilation of temperature, which leads to a great improvement on the initial moisture conditions for sea fog forecast.
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Earth Sciences, Atmospheric Science; regional modelling; spectral; coastal phenomena; stornms
Online: 27 July 2018 (06:39:23 CEST)
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We review the state of dynamical downscaling with scale-constrained regional and global models. The methodology, in particular spectral nudging, has become a routine and well-researched tool for hindcasting climatologies of sub-synoptic atmospheric disturbances in coastal regions. At present, the spectrum of applications is expanding to other phenomena, but also to ocean dynamics and to extended forecasting. Also new diagnostic challenges are appearing such as spatial characteristics of small-scale phenomena such as Low Level Jets.
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Earth Sciences, Atmospheric Science; wind speed; ANN model; hybrid model
Online: 26 July 2018 (06:22:14 CEST)
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The predictability of wind information in a given location is essential for the evaluation of a wind power project. Predicting wind speed accurately improves the planning of wind power generation, reducing costs and improving the use of resources. This paper seeks to predict the mean hourly wind speed in anemometric towers (at a height of 50 meters) at two locations: a coastal region and one with complex terrain characteristics. To this end, the Holt-Winters (HW), Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) and Hybrid time-series models were used. Observational data evaluated by the Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications-Version 2 (MERRA-2) reanalysis at the same height of the towers. The results show that the hybrid model had a better performance in relation to the others, including when compared to the evaluation with MERRA-2. For example, in terms of statistical residuals, RMSE and MAE were 0.91 and 0.62 m/s, respectively. As such, the hybrid models are a good method to forecast wind speed data for wind generation.
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Earth Sciences, Atmospheric Science; dynamic downscaling; WRF-Lake; CMIP5; great lakes
Online: 25 July 2018 (08:06:33 CEST)
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Large water bodies such as the Laurentian Great Lakes have significant influences on local and regional climate through their unique physical features. Due to the coarse spatial resolution of general circulation models (GCMs), the Great Lakes are geometrically ignored in most GCMs. Thus, the dynamical downscaling technique serves as a necessary and feasible solution to bridge the gap. The Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF) with an updated lake scheme is employed to downscale from a GCM, GFDL-CM3. The WRF-Lake’s performance is evaluated against observations, the GCM, as well as 23 other GCMs. Results show that the coupled air-lake model, with a fine spatial resolution and realistic lake bathymetries, reproduced a more reasonable spatiotemporal climatology than GCMs, as well as the lake-induced characteristics that were missed in GCMs. With lakes present, the seasonal variability of air temperature was reduced in WRF-Lake relative to GFDL-CM3, especially in summer. A reduced air temperature trend, about 4.5 °C/100 year in the 21st century, was projected in WRF-Lake. The seasonal evolutions of lake surface temperature and lake ice coverage were well captured by the lake model. The lake surface temperature was projected to be warming by 3.5-4 °C and the lake ice diminishing by 58.9% - 86%. Those results brought by the WRF-Lake model suggest that a fine resolution of the topography and the incorporation of the lake-atmosphere interactions are crucial to improve the understanding of the climate and climate change in the Great Lakes region.
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Earth Sciences, Atmospheric Science; Unified Model; geostrophic balance; geotriptic balance; ageotriptic circulation.
Online: 20 July 2018 (15:51:21 CEST)
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A diagnostic method is presented for analysing the large-scale behaviour of the Met Office Unified Model, which is a comprehensive atmospheric model used for weather and climate prediction. Outside the boundary layer, on scales larger than the radius of deformation, semigeostrophic theory will give an accurate approximation to the model evolution. In particular, the ageostrophic circulation required to maintain geostrophic and hydrostatic balance against prescribed forcing and a rate of change of the geostrophic pressure can be calculated. In the tropics the balance condition degenerates to the weak temperature gradient approximation. Within the boundary layer the semigeostriptic approximation has to be used because friction and rotation are equally important. Assuming the calculated pressure tendency and ageotriptic circulation match the observed model behaviour, the influence of the large-scale state and the nature of the forcing on the model response can be deduced in a straightforward way. This process is illustrated by comparing predictions of the ageotriptic circulation from the theory and the model. It is then used to show that the effects of latent heat release can be included by modifying the static stability, and to show the effect of an idealised tropical heat source on the subtropical jet. Finally the response of the ageotriptic flow to boundary layer heating in the tropics is demonstrated. These illustrations show that the model behaviour on large scales conforms with theoretical expectations, so that the results of the diagnostic can be used to aid the development of further improvements to the model.
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Earth Sciences, Atmospheric Science; El Niño Southern Oscillation, ENSO, health, climatic variability, climate-sensitive disease
Online: 2 July 2018 (18:13:56 CEST)
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El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is an important of mode of climatic variability that through altering climate patterns exerts a discernible impact on ecosystems and society. For this reason, ENSO has attracted much interest in the climate and health science community with many analysts investigating ENSO health links through considering the degree of dependency of the incidence of a range of climate diseases on the occurrence of El Niño events. Because of the mounting interest in the relationship between ENSO as a major mode of climatic variability and health this paper presents an overview of the basic characteristics of the ENSO phenomenon and its climate impacts, discusses the use of ENSO indices in climate and health research and outlines the present understanding of ENSO health associations. Also touched upon are ENSO-based seasonal health forecasting and the possible impacts of climate change on ENSO and the implications this holds for future assessments of ENSO health associations. The review concludes that there is still some way to go before a thorough understanding of the association between ENSO and health is achieved with a need to move beyond analyses undertaken through a purely statistical lens with due acknowledgement that ENSO as a complex non-canonical phenomenon and that simple ENSO health associations should not be expected.
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Earth Sciences, Atmospheric Science; Solar Irradiance; SSA; Ultraviolet; Aerosols; Radiative Transfer; Absorption; UVA; UVB;
Online: 25 June 2018 (19:02:41 CEST)
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The Absorbing/scattering nature of aerosols affects the total radiative forcing and this absorption to total extinction ratio is quantified by single scattering albedo (SSA). Effect of SSA in the Ultraviolet (UV) irradiance is less studied and limited measurements are available. SSA retrieved at Athens, Greece during 2009-2014 from Ultraviolet Multifilter Radiometer (UVMFR) at 332 and 368 nm, were used to calculate incoming UV irradiance, alongside with ones from AERONET at visible wavelengths, from OMI satellite at 342.5 nm and from AEROCOM climatological database at 300 nm. UVA and UVB irradiances were estimated using a Radiative Transfer Model and we found that relative differences could be as high as 20%, while average relative differences varied from 2% to 8.7 % for the whole experimental period. Both UVA and UVB drop by a rate of ~12% for 0.05 aerosol absorption optical depth compared to ones estimated using SSA at visible range. Brewer irradiance measurements at 324nm were used to validate simulated irradiances and a better agreement was found when UVMFR SSAs were used with an average difference of 0.86%, while when using visible or climatological input, relative differences were estimated +4.91 and +4.15% accordingly.
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Earth Sciences, Atmospheric Science; Gap filling, M-SSA, Monte Carlo test, Time series, LST
Online: 20 June 2018 (18:25:07 CEST)
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Land Surface Temperature (LST) is a basic parameter in energy exchange between the land and atmosphere and is frequently used in many sciences such as climatology, hydrology, agriculture, ecology, etc. LST time series data have usually deficient, missing and unacceptable data caused by the presence of clouds in images, presence of dust in atmosphere and sensor failure. In this study, Singular Spectrum Analysis (SSA) algorithm was used to resolve the problem of missing and outlier data caused by cloud cover. The region studied in the present research included an image frame of MODIS with horizontal number 22 and vertical number 05 (h22v05). This image involved a large part of Iran and Turkmenistan and Caspian Sea. In this study, MODIS LST sensor (MOD11A1) was used during 2015 with 1×1 Km spatial resolution and day/night LST data (daily temporal resolution). The results of the data quality showed that cloud cover caused 36.37% of missing data in the studied time series with 730 day/night LST images. Further, the results of SSA algorithm in reconstruction of LST images indicated the Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) of 2.95 K between the original and reconstructed data in LST time series in the study region. In general, the findings showed that SSA algorithm using spatio-temporal interpolation in LST time series can be effectively used to resolve the problem of missing data caused by cloud cover.
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Earth Sciences, Atmospheric Science; irradiance variability, high-resolution measurements, increment statistics
Online: 19 June 2018 (19:10:06 CEST)
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With the continual global increase of PV power systems and the inherent weather-induced volatility of their power output, understanding the underlying variability of solar radiation in both space and time is important for the planning and reliable operation of future power grids. This paper concisely reviews recent advances in the characterization of irradiance variability with an emphasis on small spatial and temporal scales (respectively less than about 10\,km and 1\,min), for which comprehensive data sets are time consuming and expensive to collect, and although needed have not been available until recently. Special attention is given to studies dealing with the quantification of variability using such unique data, the analysis and modeling of spatial smoothing, and the evaluation of temporal averaging.
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Earth Sciences, Atmospheric Science; monsoon, maritime continent, ocean-atmospheric phenomena, Southeast Asia, biomass burning, sea surface temperature, rainfall.
Online: 19 June 2018 (17:31:51 CEST)
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Maritime Continent (MC) positions in between Asian and Australian summer monsoons zone. Its complex topography and shallow seas around it is a major challenge for the climate researchers to model and understand it. Monsoon in this area is affected by inter-scale ocean-atmospheric interactions like El-Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and Madden-Julian Oscillation. Monsoon rainfall in MC (especially in Indonesia and Malaysia) profoundly exhibits its variability dependency on ocean-atmospheric phenomena in this region. This monsoon shift often introduces to dreadful events like biomass burning (BB) in Southeast Asia (SEA) which sometimes leads to severe trans-boundary haze pollution. In this study, the episode of BB in 2015 of SEA is highlighted and discussed. Observational satellite datasets are tested by performing simulations with numerical weather prediction (NWP) model using WRF-ARW (Advanced research WRF). Observed and model datasets are compared to study the sea surface temperature (SST) and precipitation (rainfall) anomalies influenced by ENSO, IOD and MJO. Correlations have been recognised which explains the delayed rainfall of regular monsoon in MC due to the influence of ENSO, IOD and MJO during 2015 BB episode, eventually leading to intensification of fire and severe haze.
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Earth Sciences, Atmospheric Science; dust aerosol; Central Asia; remote sensing; seasonal variation; inter-annual variability
Online: 11 June 2018 (14:07:29 CEST)
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Several long-term monitoring of aerosol datasets from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on board Terra/Aqua, Multi-angle Imaging SpectroRadiometer (MISR), Sea-Viewing Wide Field-of-View Sensor (SeaWiFS) are used to derive the dust aerosol optical depth (DOD) in Central Asia based on the Angstrom exponent parameter and/or the particle shape. All sensors agree very well on the interannual variability of DOD. The seasonal analysis of DOD and dust occurrences identified the largest dust loading and the most frequent dust occurrence in the spring and summer, respectively. No significant trend is found during the research period in terms of both DOD and the dust occurrence. Further analysis of Cloud-Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observation (CALIPSO) aerosol products on a case-by-case basis in most dust months of 2007 suggested that the vertical structure is varying in terms of the extension and the dust loading from one event to another, although dust particles of most episodes have similar physical characteristics (the particle shape and size). Our analysis on the vertical structure of dust plumes, the layer-integrated color ratio and depolarization ratio indicates a varied climate effect (e.g., the direct radiative impact) by mineral dust, dependent on the event being observed in Central Asia.
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Earth Sciences, Atmospheric Science; west Africa cities; urban transport; traffic flows; fuel consumption; emissions inventories; Yopougon
Online: 11 June 2018 (13:51:28 CEST)
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Traffic source emissions inventories for the rapidly growing West African urban cities are necessary for better local characterization of vehicle emissions released into these cities atmosphere. This study based on local field campaign in a representative site of anthropogenic activities over West African cities such as Yopougon (Abidjan, Côte d'Ivoire) during 2016, provided useful information on vehicle type and age, traveling time, fuel type and amount for fuel consumption estimation. Also, high traffic flow of personal car were recorded on highway, boulevard and backstreet whereas high flows of intra-communal sedan taxi are recorded on main and secondary roads. In addition, the highest daily fuel consumption value of 56 L.day-1 was recorded in heavy vehicle while the lowest value of 15 L.day-1 is recorded for personal car using gasoline. This study will be useful for the improvement of uncertainties related to the different databases used to estimate inventories emissions either national or international reports. This work provides useful information for future studies on urban air quality, climate and health impacts assessment in African cities. It may also be useful for policy makers to support implementation of emission reduction policy in West African cities.
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Earth Sciences, Atmospheric Science; saccharides; biomass burning; haze; source apportionment; bio-aerosol
Online: 4 June 2018 (14:47:58 CEST)
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The characteristics of biogenic aerosols in urban area were explored by determining the composition, temporal distribution of saccharides in PM2.5 in Shanghai. The total saccharides showed a wide range of 15.2 ng/m3 to 1752.8 ng/m3, with the averaged concentrations were 169.8 ng/m3，300.5 ng/m3，288.4 ng/m3，688 ng/m3 in spring, summer, autumn, and winter, respectively. The concerned saccharides include anhydrosaccharides (levoglucosan and mannosan), which were higher in cold seasons due to the increased biomass burning, saccharide alcohols (mannitol, arabitol, sorbitol) and monosaccharides (fructose, glucose), which showed more abundant in warm seasons attributed to the biological emissions. By PMF analysis, four emission sources of saccharides were demonstrated, including biomass burning, fungal spores, soil suspension and plant pollens. Resolution of backward trajectory and fire points showed a process of high concentrations of levoglucosan. We found that concentrations of anhydrosaccharides showed relatively stable under different pollution levels while saccharide alcohols exhibited an obvious decrease, indicated that biomass burning was not the core reason of the heavy haze pollution, however, and high level PM2.5 pollution might inhibit effects of biological activities.
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Earth Sciences, Atmospheric Science; Franklin lightning rod, ESE lightning rod, Lightning attachment
Online: 29 May 2018 (19:00:53 CEST)
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In the lightning rods categorized as ESE an intermittent voltage impulse is applied to the lightning rod to modulate the electric field at its tip in an attempt to speed up the initiation of a connecting leader from the lightning rod when it is under the influence of a down coming stepped leader. In this paper it is shown that due to the stepping nature of the down coming stepped leader, there is a natural modulation of the electric field at the tip of any lightning rod exposed to the lightning stepped leaders and this modulation is much more intense than any artificial modulation that is possible under practical conditions. Based on the results it is claimed that artificial modulation of the electric field at the tip of lightning rods by applying voltage pulses to it is an unnecessary endeavor because the nature itself has endowed the tip of the lightning rod with a modulating electric field. Thus, as far as the effectiveness of artificial modulation of the tip electric field is concerned, there could be no difference in the lightning attachment efficiency between ESE and Franklin lightning rods.
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Earth Sciences, Atmospheric Science; urban heat island; non-constructible parcels; cool surfaces; urban vegetation; envi met; mitigation measures; beirut
Online: 28 May 2018 (15:21:28 CEST)
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The Urban Heat Island (UHI) is one of the more serious consequences of urbanization resulting in impacts on thermal comfort levels, heat stress, and even mortality. For Municipal Beirut, implementation of “cool” surface materials and green spaces have been recommended to counterbalance the UHI. This paper builds on previous findings on the topic of non-constructible parcels within the district of Bachoura in Municipal Beirut and examines the possibility of implementing “cool” surface or paving materials and urban vegetation which can improve thermal conditions especially during the summer period and with the viewto project the positive findings of this case study to the entire Municipal Beirut area. A numerical analysis using ENVI-met 4.0 investigates the thermal performance of these non-constructibles further to implementation of high reflective surfaces and urban vegetation within a broad neighborhood scale in Bachoura. Results show reductions in ambient temperatures up to 1K on a summer day.. Within the framework of an integrated approach to planning, this form of urban acupuncture aims for substantial UHI reduction. Energy performance of buildings further to implementation of these mitigation measures is also recommended for future studies and to validate the findings in this paper.
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Earth Sciences, Atmospheric Science; Diablo winds; downslope windstorms; Northern California; wildfire meteorology
Online: 24 May 2018 (12:16:13 CEST)
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Diablo winds are dry and gusty north-northeasterly downslope windstorms that affect the Northern California. On the evening of October 8, 2017, Diablo winds contributed to the ignitions and rapid spread of the “Northern California Firestorm”, including the Tubbs Fire, which burned 2,800 homes in Santa Rosa, resulted in 22 fatalities and $1.2B USD in damages. We analyzed 18 years of data from a network of surface meteorological stations and show that Diablo winds tend to occur overnight through early morning in Fall, Winter and Spring. Conditions similar to Diablo winds occur commonly in the Sierra Nevada Mountains in addition to the area North of the San Francisco Bay Area including the Northern Coastal Ranges. Diablo winds are characterized by high wind speeds and low relative humidity, but they tend to neither be warmer than climatology nor do they have a higher gust factor, or ratio of wind gusts to mean wind speeds, than climatology.
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Earth Sciences, Atmospheric Science; atmospheric river; avalanche; debris flow; flooding; snow level; typhoon
Online: 24 May 2018 (07:53:39 CEST)
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On 5-7 April 2018 a landfalling atmospheric river resulted in widespread heavy precipitation in the Sierra Nevada of California and Nevada. Observed snow levels during this event were among the highest snow levels recorded since observations began in 2002 and exceeded 2.75 km for 31 hours in the northern Sierra Nevada and 3.75 km for 12 hours in the southern Sierra Nevada. The anomalously high snow levels and over 80 mm of precipitation caused flooding, debris flows, and wet snow avalanches in the upper elevations of the Sierra Nevada. The origin of this atmospheric river was super typhoon Jelawat, whose moisture remnants were entrained and maintained by an extratropical cyclone in the northeast Pacific. This event was notable due to its April occurrence, as six other typhoon remnants that caused heavy precipitation with high snow levels (mean = 2.92 km) in the northern Sierra Nevada all occurred during October.
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Stavros Solomos,
Nikos Kalivitis,
Nikos Mihalopoulos,
Vassilis Amiridis,
Giorgos Kouvarakis,
Antonis Gkikas,
Ioannis Binietoglou ,
Alexandra Tsekeri,
Stelios Kazadzis,
Michael Kottas,
Yaswant Pradhan,
Emmanouil Proestakis,
Panagiotis Nastos,
Franco Marenco
Earth Sciences, Atmospheric Science; dust; polar vortex; Finokalia; Foehn; Khamsin
Online: 23 May 2018 (11:05:47 CEST)
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A record-breaking dust episode took place in Crete on 22 March 2018. The event was characterized by surface concentrations exceeding 1 mg m-3 for a period of 4-7 hours, reaching record values higher than 6 mg m-3 at the background station of Finokalia. We present here a detailed analysis of the atmospheric dynamical processes during this period, to identify the main reasons that resulted in such extreme dust advection over Crete. At synoptic scale, the weakening of the polar vortex and the meridional transport of polar air masses at upper tropospheric layers resulted in a strong jet streak over N. Africa and Central Mediterranean and corresponding tropospheric folding that brought cold stratospheric air in mid and upper troposphere. Cyclogenesis occurred at the Gulf of Sirte in Libya, resulting on strong winds over the NE parts of Libya, enhancing particle emissions. The dust plume traveled at low heights (0.5-3 km) along the warm conveyor belt preceding the depression cold front. This type of dusty southerly wind is commonly known as “Khamsin”. As the flow approached Crete, Foehn winds at the lee side of the island favored the downward mixing of dust towards the surface, resulting in local maxima of PM10 in Heraklion and Finokalia. The analysis is based on the synergy of high resolution WRF-Chem simulations reaching up to 1×1 km grid space over Crete, ground-based and satellite remote sensing of the dust plumes (PollyXT lidar, MSG-SEVIRI, MODIS) and detailed surface aerosol in-situ measurements at urban (Heraklion, Chania) and background (Finokalia) stations in Crete.
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Simone Lolli,
Leo Pio D'Adderio,
James R. Campbell,
Michael Sicard,
Ellsworth J. Welton,
Andrea Binci,
Alessandro Rea,
Ali Tokay,
Adolfo Comerón,
Ruben Barragan,
Jose Maria Baldasano,
Sergi Gonzales,
Joan Bech,
Nicola Afflitto,
Jasper R. Lewis
Earth Sciences, Atmospheric Science; rainfall; lidar; disdrometer; evaporation; meteorology; climate change; latent heat; precipitation
Online: 21 May 2018 (13:09:01 CEST)
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In this paper we illustrate a new, simple and complementary ground-based methodology to retrieve the vertically resolved atmospheric precipitation intensity through a synergy between measurements from the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Micropulse Lidar network (MPLNET), an analytical model solution and ground-based disdrometer measurements. The presented results are obtained at two mid-latitude MPLNET permanent observational sites, located respectively at NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, USA, and at the Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya, Barcelona, Spain. The methodology is suitable to be applied to existing and/or future lidar/ceilometer networks with the main objective of either providing near-real time (3h latency) rainfall intensity measurements and/or to validate satellite missions, especially for critical light precipitation (<3 mm hr−1).
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Earth Sciences, Atmospheric Science; AOD; MODIS; Alaska; AERONET; air quality
Online: 8 May 2018 (08:30:56 CEST)
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The air quality monitoring network in Alaska is currently limited to ground-based observations in urban areas and national parks leaving a large proportion of the state unmonitored. The use of MODIS aerosol optical depth (AOD) to estimate ground-level particulate pollution concentrations has been successfully demonstrated around the world, and could potentially be used in Alaska. In this work, MODIS AOD measurements at 550 nm were validated against AOD derived from AERONET ground-based sunphotometers in Barrow and Bonanza Creek to determine if MODIS AOD from the Terra and Aqua satellites could be used to estimate ground-level particulate pollution concentrations. The MODIS AOD was obtained from MODIS collection 6 using the dark target Land and Ocean algorithms from 2000 to 2014. MODIS data could only be obtained between the months of April and October; therefore, it could only be validated for those months. Individual and combined Terra and Aqua MODIS data were considered. The results showed that MODIS collection 6 products at 10 km resolution for Terra and Aqua combined are not valid over land but are valid over the ocean. On the other hand, the individual Terra and Aqua MODIS collection 6 AOD products at 10 km resolution are valid over land individually but not when combined. Results also suggest the MODIS collection 6 AOD products at 3 km resolution are valid over land and ocean and perform better over land than the 10-km product. These findings indicate that MODIS collection 6 AOD products can be used quantitatively in air quality applications in Alaska during the summer months.
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Earth Sciences, Atmospheric Science; Sun photometer, Aerosols, Aerosol Optical Depth (AOT), New Orleans
Online: 30 April 2018 (14:28:29 CEST)
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Aerosol optical depth (AOT) was measured at Xavier University of Louisiana (29.96ᵒ N, 90.11ᵒ W and about 3m above sea level) using a hand-held sun photometer. AOT was measured at two different wavelengths (green at 505nm and red at 625nm) during the period from Sept-2017 to Feb-2018. In this study, we investigate the relationship between AOT and temperature, precipitation, barometric pressure and relative humidity. The maximum monthly average value for green AOT was 0.176 (measured in September) and the minimum monthly value is 0.040 (measured in January). For the red AOT the maximum monthly average value was 0.123 (measured in September) and the minimum is 0.034 (measured in December). The AOT–temperature relationship was predominantly positive, meaning that high AOT values correspond to high temperatures and low AOT values correspond to low temperatures. Relationship between AOT and rainfall is negative, meaning high rainfall averages are associated with low AOT values. AOT and atmospheric pressure have a predominantly negative relationship. The relationship between relative humidity and AOT is a complicated one and is hard to qualify as relative humidity varies very little during the study period.
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Earth Sciences, Atmospheric Science; effective cloud albedo; solar surface irradiance; optical flow; cloud motion vectors; renewable energies
Online: 28 April 2018 (13:32:20 CEST)
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The increasing use of renewable energies as a source of electricity has led to a fundamental transition of the power supply system. The integration of fluctuating weather-dependent energy sources into the grid already has a major impact on the load flows of the grid. As a result, the interest in forecasting wind and solar radiation with a sufficient accuracy over short time horizons grew. In this study the short-term forecast of the effective cloud albedo based on optical flow estimation methods are investigated. The optical flow method utilized here is TV-L1 from the open source library OpenCV. This method uses a multi-scale-approach to capture cloud motions on various spatial scales. After the clouds are displaced the solar surface radiation will be calculated with SPECMAGIC NOW which computes the global irradiation spectrally resolved from satellite imagery. Due to a high temporal and spatial resolution of satellite measurements the effective cloud albedo and thus solar radiation can be forecasted from 5 minutes up to 4 hours with a resolution of 0.05°. In the following there will be a brief description of the method for the short-term forecast of the effective cloud albedo. Subsequently evaluation results will be presented and discussed. Finally an outlook of further developments will be given.
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Earth Sciences, Atmospheric Science; typhoon Durian; tropical cyclone; wind-pressure relationships; South China Sea; sensitivity analysis; WRF
Online: 26 April 2018 (10:59:09 CEST)
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Typhoon Durian forming over the Western North Pacific Ocean and entering into the South China Sea (SCS), caused extreme and widespread damages in 2006. In this research, sensitivity analyses on different physical parameterization schemes of the Weather Research and Forecasting Atmospheric Model (WRF-ATM) have been utilized to study typhoon Durian. Model accuracy and performance testing were investigated with different initial conditions during the tropical cyclone simulation in the SCS. The initial and boundary conditions (IBCs) for all experiments were derived from the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), Re-Analysis Interim (ERAI), and the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) with Final (FNL) analysis data compiled through the WRF-ATM model. The sensitivity analysis results indicated a major improvement for the cumulus scheme by using the Grell-Devenyi scheme along with the PBL scheme of Yonsei University, mixed-phase microphysics scheme of the WRF Single Moment 5-class and IBCs for ECMWF-ERAI of TC simulation under the context of Wind-Pressure Relationships. This predicted better track and intensity comparing with these of the Joint Typhoon Warning Center. The results revealed that the TC track and intensity were well simulated by the WSM5-GD combination for the WRF-ATM model with an intensity error of 1.69 hPa for minimum surface level pressure, maximum wind speed of 1.83 knots and average track error of 25 km in 72 hours. The simulations showed that the potential track and intensity error decreased with the delayed IBCs, suggesting that the model simulation is more dependable when the coast is approached by the TC.
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Earth Sciences, Atmospheric Science; CO2; Carbon dioxide; mega-city; diurnal cycle; CO2 emission; GOSAT
Online: 20 April 2018 (13:35:55 CEST)
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Site environments and instrumental characteristics of carbon dioxide (CO2) measurements operated by local governments in the Kanto Plain, the center of which is Tokyo were summarized for this study. The observation sites were classified into environments of three types: urban, suburban, and woodland. Based on a few decades of accumulated hourly data, the diurnal and seasonal variations of CO2 concentrations were analyzed as a composite of anomalies from annual means recorded for each site. In urban areas, the highest concentrations appear before midnight in winter. The second peak corresponds to the morning rush hour and strengthening of the inversion layer. Suburban areas can be characterized as having the highest concentration before dawn and the lowest concentration during the daytime in summer in association with the activation of respiration and photosynthesis of vegetation. In these areas, concentration peaks also appear during the morning rush hour. Woodland areas show background features, with the highest concentration in early spring: higher than the global background by about 5 ppmv.
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Xiaoying Li,
Tianhai Cheng,
Jian Xu,
Hailiang Shi,
Xingying Zhang,
Shule Ge,
Mingmin Zou,
Hongmei Wang,
Yapeng Wang,
Songyan Zhu,
Jing Miao
Earth Sciences, Atmospheric Science; AIUS; occultation; retrieval algorithm; microwindows; ozone
Online: 20 April 2018 (05:59:10 CEST)
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AIUS (Atmospheric Infrared Ultraspectral Sounder) is an infrared occultation spectrometer onboard the Chinese GaoFen-5 satellite, which covers a spectral range of 2.4–13.3 μm (750–4100 cm−1) with a spectral resolution of about 0.02 cm−1. AIUS is designed to measure and study chemical processes of ozone (O3) and other trace gases in the upper troposphere and stratosphere around Antarctic. In this study, the corresponding retrieval methodology is described. The retrieval simulations based on the simulated spectra of AIUS have been carried out, with a focus on O3. The relative difference between the retrieved and the true O3 profiles is within 5% from the 15 km to 70 km and about 10% below 15 km. The corresponding averaging kernels illustrate that the overall retrieval information mainly come from the spectra, not the a priori. The retrieval experiments also demonstrate that the shape of the retrieved profiles resembles the shape of the true profile even if the shape of the a priori profile is different from that of the true profile. Further, we perform the O3 retrieval from the real ACE-FTS (Atmospheric Chemistry Experiment-Fourier Transform Spectrometer) measurements and compare the results with the official ACE-FTS Level-2 products. Overall, both profiles agree well in the stratosphere where the retrieval sensitivity is high. The relative difference between both profiles is about 15% below 70 km, which may due to the measurement errors and different forward model parameters.
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Earth Sciences, Atmospheric Science; compact cloud discharges; narrow bipolar pulses; propagation effects; finitely conducting ground
Online: 19 April 2018 (13:39:20 CEST)
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Propagation effects on the Narrow Bipolar Pulses (NBPs) or the radiation fields generated by compact cloud discharges as they propagate over finitely conducting ground are presented. The results are obtained using a sample of NBPs recorded with high time resolution from close thunderstorms in Sri Lanka. The results show that the peak amplitude and the temporal features such as the Full Width at Half Maximum (FWHM), zero crossing time and the time derivative of NBPs can be significantly distorted by propagation effects. For this reason the study of peak amplitudes and temporal features of NBPs and the remote sensing of current parameters of compact cloud discharges should be conducted using NBPs recorded under conditions where the propagation effects are minimal.
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Earth Sciences, Atmospheric Science; lightning; spark discharges; tortuosity; streamer bursts; leaders
Online: 18 April 2018 (08:21:29 CEST)
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Physical reason for the small scale tortuosity observed in sparks and lightning channels is unknown at present. In this paper it is suggested that the small scale tortuosity of the discharge channels is caused by the natural tendency for subsequent leader streamer bursts to avoid each other but at the same time to align as much as possible along the direction of the background electric field. This process will give rise to a discharge channel that re-orients in space during each streamer burst creating the small scale tortuosity.
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Earth Sciences, Atmospheric Science; Bayesian bias correction; satellite rainfall; rain gauge; climate studies; East Africa
Online: 17 April 2018 (13:29:28 CEST)
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Advances in remote sensing have led to use of satellite-derived rainfall products to complement the sparse rain gauge data. Although globally derived and some regional bias corrected, these products often show large discrepancies with ground measurements attributed to local and external factors that require systematic consideration. Decreasing rain gauge network however inhibits continuous validation of these products. We propose to deal with this problem by the use of Bayesian approach to merge the existing historical rain gauge information to create a consistent satellite rainfall data that can be used for climate studies. Monthly Bayesian bias correction is applied to the Climate Hazards Group Infrared Precipitation with Stations (CHIRPS v2) data to reduce systematic errors using a corresponding gridded (0.05°) rain gauge data over East Africa for a period of 33 (1981–2013) years of which 22 years are utilized to derive error fields which are then applied to an independent CHIRPS data for 11 years for validation. The bias correction is spatially and temporally assessed during the rainfall wet months of March-May (MAM), June-August (JJA) and October–December (OND) in East Africa. Results show significant reduction of systematic errors at both monthly and yearly scales and harmonization of their cumulative distributions. Monthly statistics showed a reduction of RMSD (29–56)% and MAE (28–60)% and an increase of correlations (2–32) %, while yearly ones showed reductions of RMSD (9-23)%, and MAE (7–27)% and increase of correlations (4–77)% for MAM months, reduction of RMSD (15–35)% and MAE (16–41)% and increase in correlations (5–16)% for JJA months, and reduction of RMSD (3–35)% and MAE (9–32)% and increase of correlations (3–65)% for OND months. Systematic errors of corrected data were influenced by local processes especially over Lake Victoria and high elevated areas. Large-scale circulations induced errors were mainly during JJA and OND rainfall seasons and were reduced by the separation of anomalous years during training. The proposed approach is recommended for generating long-term data for climate studies where consistencies of errors can be assumed.
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Earth Sciences, Atmospheric Science; lightning flash; return stroke; K change; chaotic pulse train; regular pulse train
Online: 16 April 2018 (10:11:25 CEST)
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General characteristics of K changes together with their fine structure associated with ground flashes in Sri Lanka in the tropics are presented. It is found that on average there are about 2 K changes associated with each return stroke. Analysis of the fine structure of the K changes shows that the K change is a chaotic pulse burst. Some of these chaotic pulse bursts start and the others end as a regular pulse bursts. Sometimes the chaotic part occurs in between two regular pulse bursts. This is in agreement with the recent published results that claim that chaotic pulse bursts are a random superposition of regular pulse bursts. The results show that the small step fields identified in the literature as K changes are the static fields associated with these pulse bursts.
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Earth Sciences, Atmospheric Science; fire weather; fire climate; large wildfires; downslope windstorm; wildland urban interface; drought; foehn winds
Online: 16 April 2018 (10:00:29 CEST)
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Two extreme wind-driven wildfire events impacted northern and southern California in late 2017 leading to 46 fatalities and thousands of structures lost. This study describes the meteorological and climatological factors that drove and enabled these wildfire events and quantifies the rarity of such conditions over the observational record. Both extreme wildfire events featured fire-weather metrics that were unprecedented in the observational record in addition to a sequence of climatic conditions that preconditioned fuels. The North Bay fires that affected portions of northern California in early October occurred coincident with strong downslope winds. The vast majority of the fires’ devastating effects and acres burned occurred overnight and within the first twelve hours of ignition. By contrast, the southern California fires of December were characterized by the longest Santa Ana wind event on record and included the largest wildfire in California’s history. Both fire events occurred following an exceptionally wet winter that was preceded by the drought of record in California. Fuels were further preconditioned as the warmest summer and autumn on record occurred in northern and southern California, respectively. Accelerated curing of fuels coupled with the delayed onset of autumn precipitation allowed for critically low dead fuel moisture leading up to the foehn wind events. Fire weather conditions were well forecasted several days prior to the fire. However, the rarity of fire-weather conditions that occurred in the wildland urban interface, along with other societal factors were key contributors to wildfire impacts to communities.
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Earth Sciences, Atmospheric Science; operational forecast sytem; fire modeling; numerical weather prediction; high spatial reoslution; WRF-Fire
Online: 12 April 2018 (10:03:28 CEST)
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Wildland fires are responsible for large socio-economic impacts. Fires affect the environment, damage structures, threaten lives, cause health issues, and involve large suppression costs. These impacts can be mitigated via accurate fire spread forecast to inform the incident management team. We show that a fire forecast system based on a numerical weather prediction (NWP) model coupled with a wildland fire behavior model can provide this forecast. This is illustrated with the Chimney Tops II wildland fire responsible for large socio-economic impacts. The system is run at high horizontal resolution (111 m) over the region affected by the fire to provide a fine representation of the terrain and fuel heterogeneities and explicitly resolve atmospheric turbulence. Our findings suggest that one can use the high spatial resolution winds, fire spread and smoke forecast to minimize the adverse impacts of wildland fires.
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Earth Sciences, Atmospheric Science; data scarcity; actual evapotranspiration; surface energy balance; performance evaluation; remote sensing
Online: 10 April 2018 (18:34:58 CEST)
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The Kabul River basin (KRB) of Afghanistan, a lifeline of around 10 million people, has multiplicity of governance, management and development related challenges leading to inequity, inadequacy and unreliability of irrigation water distribution. Prior to any uplifting intervention, there is a need to evaluate the performance of irrigation system on long term basis to identify the existing bottlenecks. Although there are several indicators used for the performance evaluation of the irrigation schemes, but we used the coefficient of variation (CV) of actual evapotranspiration (ETa) in space (basin, sub-basin, and provincial level), relative evapotranspiration (RET) and temporal CV of RET to assess the equity, adequacy and reliability of water distribution respectively, from 2003 to 2013. The ETa was estimated through surface energy balance system (SEBS) algorithm and the ETa estimates were validated using advection aridity (AA) method with R2 value of 0.81 and 0.77 at Nawabad and Sultanpur stations respectively. The global land data assimilation system (GLDAS) and moderate-resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS) products were used as main inputs to the SEBS. Results show that mean seasonal sub-based RET values during summer (May – September) (0.37 ± 0.06) and winter (October – April) (0.40 ± 0.08) are below the target values (RET ≥0.75) during 2003-2013. The CV of mean ETa within sub-basins and provinces for the entire study period has equitable distribution of water from October-January (0.09±0.04) whereas the highest inequity (0.24±0.08) in water distribution is during early summer. The range of the CV of mean ETa (0.04-0.06) on monthly and seasonal basis shows the unreliability of water supplies in several provinces or sub-basins. The analysis of temporal CV of mean RET highlights unreliable water supplies across the entire basin. The maximum ETa during the study period was estimated for Shamal sub-basin (552±43mm) while among provinces Kunar experienced the highest ETa (544±39mm). This study highlights the dire need for interventions to improve the irrigation performance in time and space. The proposed methodology can be used as a framework for monitoring and implementing the water distribution plans in future.
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Earth Sciences, Atmospheric Science; stratocumulus; cloud physical characteristics; eastern China
Online: 29 March 2018 (11:03:22 CEST)
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Stratocumulus (Sc) is the most common cloud type in China. Sc clouds may or may not be accompanied by various types of precipitation that are representative of different macro- and microphysical characteristics. The finely resolved CloudSat data products are used in this study to quantitatively investigate the macro- and microphysical characteristics of precipitating and non-precipitating Sc (PS and NPS, respectively) clouds over Eastern China (EC). Based on statistical information extracted from the CloudSat data, Sc clouds are highly likely to occur alone, in association with liquid precipitation, or in association with drizzle over 25.65% of EC. The cloud bases of NPS clouds are higher than those of PS clouds, although the latter display higher cloud top heights and thicker cloud thicknesses. The spatial distributions of microphysical characteristics differ between PS and NPS clouds. The magnitudes of microphysical characteristics in NPS clouds are relatively small and decrease with height, whereas the magnitudes of microphysical characteristics in PS clouds are relatively large and peak in response to certain circulation patterns and over certain terrain. The variations in microphysical characteristics in Sc clouds with height and contoured frequency by altitude diagrams (CFADs) of radar reflectivity may indicate that different microphysical processes operate in PS and NPS clouds. In NPS clouds, hydrometeor particles accumulate by coalescence as they rise; once the particles are too large to be supported by updrafts, the cloud droplets form raindrops. In PS clouds, raindrops increase continuously in size via collision-coalescence processes as they fall. The levels between 2.5 and 3.0 km represent the space where particles grow most rapidly. Particles are affected by updrafts and accumulate at levels between 2.5 and 1.0 km as height decreases.
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Earth Sciences, Atmospheric Science; firework displays; toxic metals; principal component analysis; risk assessment; hazard quotient; hazard index
Online: 20 March 2018 (08:19:53 CET)
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Bonfire night is a worldwide phenomenon given to numerous annual celebrations characterised by bonfires and fireworks. Since Thailand has no national ambient air quality standards for metal particulates, it is important to investigate the impacts of particulate injections on elevations of air pollutants and ecological health impacts resulting from firework displays. In this investigation, Pb and Ba were considered potential firework tracers because their concentrations were significantly higher during the episode and lower than/comparable with minimum detection limits during other periods, indicating that their elevated concentrations were principally due to pyrotechnic displays. Pb/Ca, Pb/Al, Pb/Mg, and Pb/Cu can be used to pin-point emissions from firework displays. Air mass backward trajectories (72 h) from the Hybrid Single-Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory (HYSPLIT) model indicated that areas east and north-east of the study site were the main sources for the air transportation. Although the combined risk associated with levels of Pb, Cr, Co, Ni, Zn, As, Cd, V, and Mn was far below the standards mentioned in international guidelines, the lifetime cancer risks associated with As and Cr levels exceeded US-EPA guidelines, and may expose inhabitants of surrounding areas of Bangkok to elevated cancer risk.
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Earth Sciences, Atmospheric Science; odor; volatile organic compounds; environmental analysis; air sampling; simultaneous chemical and sensory analysis
Online: 13 March 2018 (05:06:11 CET)
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As natural scale-models for community environmental odor issues, these odorant prioritization results illustrate an important consideration: … ‘with respect to focusing an environmental odor issue, it is possible to look too closely at the source’… Although simple odor dilution, as measured by odor concentration and intensity, certainly occurs during downwind dispersive migration from the source, these authors propose that the term dynamic dilution is limiting with respect to environmental odor impact. The results presented herein suggest that the odor character from an environmental source can vary dramatically, depending upon the distance of the human receptors from that source. It is further suggested that the process of downwind environmental odorant prioritization can best be characterized as a rolling unmasking effect or RUE. The RUE is exhibited by the masking odors nearest the source sequentially ‘falling away’ with distance from the source, revealing a succession of increasingly simplified odor characteristic and composition. Because of scaling factors and meteorological unpredictability, the logistics involved in carrying-out odorant prioritization studies can be very challenging when targeting large-scale odor sources. However, for these authors’ illustrative purposes, these challenges were reduced significantly by selecting natural, ‘scale-model’ odor-sources which represented significant reductions in the primary scaling factors; especially, reductions in the size of the odor sources and the distance of their downwind reach. Driven by odorant prioritization and the RUE, extremes of odor simplification-upon-dilution were demonstrated for two Central Texas plant varieties, prairie verbena and virginia pepperweed. Their ‘odor frontal boundaries’ were shown to be dominated by single, character-defining odorants; prairie verbena presenting with a p-cresol dominated ‘barnyard’ odor and virginia pepperweed with a benzyl mercaptan dominated ‘burnt match’ odor. Similar odor simplification was also shown for the South American prehensile-tailed porcupine (i.e., pt porcupine); its downwind ‘odor frontal boundary’ dominated by two potent, character-defining odorants (i.e. as yet unidentified): (1) ‘onion’/‘body odor’ odorant #1 and (2) ‘onion’/‘grilled’ odorant #2. In contrast to their outer-boundary simplicities, each of these sources also presented, at the source, with odor compositions reflecting considerable complexity and corrresponding composite odor characters that were distinctly different from those reflected at their respective ‘odor frontal boundaries’.
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Earth Sciences, Atmospheric Science; atmospheric dispersion modelling; backward Lagrangian stochastic model; atmospheric surface-layer; micrometeorological techniques; gaseous emissions; atmospheric ammonia; dry deposition; grassland; open-path measurements; differential optical absorption spectroscopy
Online: 3 March 2018 (13:04:50 CET)
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A controlled ammonia (NH3) release experiment was performed at a grassland site to quantify the effect of dry deposition, at the field scale between the source and the receptors (NH3 measurement locations), on the estimates of emission rates by means of inverse dispersion modelling. NH3 was released for 3 hours at a constant rate of Q = 6.29 mg s−1 from a grid of 36 orifices spread over an area of 250 m2. The increase in line-integrated NH3 concentration was measured with open-path optical miniDOAS devices at different locations downwind of the artificial source. Using a backward Lagrangian stochastic (bLS) dispersion model (bLSmodelR), the fraction of the modelled release rate to the emitted NH3 (QbLS/Q) was calculated from the measurements of the individual instruments. QbLS/Q was found to be systematically lower than 1, on average between 0.69 and 0.91, depending on the location of the receptor. We hypothesized that NH3 dry deposition to grass and soil surfaces was the main factor responsible for the observed depletion of NH3 between source and receptor. A dry deposition algorithm based on a deposition velocity approach was included in the bLS modelling. Model deposition velocities were evaluated from a ‘big‑leaf’ canopy resistance analogy. Canopy resistances (generally termed Rc) that provided QbLS/Q = 1 ranged from 75 to 290 s m−1, showing that surface removal of NH3 by dry deposition can plausibly explain the original underestimation of QbLS/Q. The inclusion of a dry deposition process in dispersion modelling is crucial for emission estimates, which are based on concentration measurements of depositing tracers downwind of homogeneous area sources or heterogeneously distributed hot spots, such as e.g. urine patches on pastures in the case of NH3.
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Earth Sciences, Atmospheric Science; Climate change; energy system sizing; sustainable urban planning; urban climate; urban design.
Online: 22 February 2018 (14:34:10 CET)
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Building more energy efficient and sustainable urban areas that will both mitigate the effect of climate change and adapt for the future climate, requires the development new tools and methods that can help urban planners, architect and communities achieve this goal. In the current study, we designed a workflow that links different methodologies developed separately, to derive the energy consumption of a university school campus for the future. Three different scenarios for typical future years (2039, 2069, 2099) were run as well as a renovation scenario (Minergie-P). We analyse the impact of climate change on the heating and cooling demand of the buildings and determined the relevance of the accounting of the local climate in this particular context. The results from the simulations showed that in the future there will a constant decrease in the heating demand while for the cooling demand there will be a significant increase. It was further demonstrated that when the local climate was taken into account there was an even higher rise in the cooling demand but also that the proposed renovations were not sufficient to design resilient buildings. We then discuss the implication of this work on the simulation of building energy consumption at the neighbourhood scale and the impact of future local climate on energy system design. We finally give a few perspective regarding improved urban design and possible pathways for the future urban areas.
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Earth Sciences, Atmospheric Science; Climate Variability; Food Security; Climate Change Adaptation; Malnutrition
Online: 8 February 2018 (16:59:16 CET)
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Climate variability and change has been found to be one of the factors that affect economies leading to food insecurity in various parts of the world. Kenya is no exception. This study looks at how climate variability has contributed to food insecurity in Kisii County, Kenya. The objectives of this study is therefore to, (i) to examine the rainfall and temperature trends in Kisii County for a period of approximately 30 years, (ii) to examine the effect of climate variability on food production and (iii) to assess the perception of local farmers on weather and climate information, (iv) to evaluate the coping strategies adopted at to bridge the gap on food deficit at different household level and (v) to assess the nutritional status of children and the elderly. The study was conducted in two sub-counties of Kisii County; Marani and Bomachoge Chache. The data used was mainly rainfall and temperature data from meteorological stations and sample data gathered from selected groups. The study population comprised of children between 6 months and 59 months, household heads, elderly people and agricultural officers. Purposive sampling was used to select agricultural officers while multistage sampling was used to select respondents at household level. Data was collected by use of a pre-tested questionnaire. The MUAC tape was used to collect nutritional status of children while BMI data was obtained from elderly people. Mann Kendall statistic was used to determine whether the trend of rainfall and temperature observed is significant while Chi-square test was used to determine whether the coping strategies observed varied significantly at household level. From the analysis, rainfall has not shown any significant change in Kisii County while temperature trend has been significantly increasing over the years at 95% confidence level. This could explain the observed reduction in river levels. Analysis of crop production and price trends of major food crops in Kisii County showed a decreasing trend of food production leading to increase in price over the years. This meant that farmers could not produce enough to take them to the next harvesting season making farmers to adopt different coping strategies at household level which differed significantly according to Chi-Square test. Malnutrition status of both elderly people above 59 years and children between 6-59 months were similar with 23% of both children/elderly being severely malnourished/malnourished. This study has only looked at climatic factors such as rainfall and temperature. Other aspects such as depth of underground water, ph level of soil and the effects of land fragmentation also need to be looked at. This study is important to both farmers in choosing the right crop to plant, and policy makers and planners in formulating the best mitigation and intervention strategies for Kisii County food insecurity problem. This will further contribute to national efforts towards achievement of vision 2030.
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Earth Sciences, Atmospheric Science; Model; Temperature; Urban;Warming
Online: 5 February 2018 (17:34:46 CET)
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There is a perception among the inhabitants of the Aburrá Valley Region, that this heavily populated region, situated in the Andean mountains of Colombia, has been suffering large temperature elevations in the last years, especially in the last decade. To give perspective about this issue, the authors have gone through the available information about temperature changes in three meteorological stations in the region and have correlated it with a set of variables of urban, climatic and energetic nature, with the intention of developing an approximate model to understand the temperature changes. Changes in the mean temperature, based on the linear correlation of the data were estimated on 0.47oC for the 20 years between 1995 and 2015; the study showed that 60% of change was found to be related to local human activities and 40% was attributed to the impact of global warming. For the local influences some practical mitigation actions are proposed, related to improve the energy management and paying more attention to the temperature changes trough improvements in the number and capability of sampling stations in the urban air and in the river, which serve as clear indicators of the changes and the effect of any mitigation measures.
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Earth Sciences, Atmospheric Science; data assimilation; statistical diagnostics of analysis residuals; estimation of analysis error, air quality model diagnostics; Desroziers method; cross-validation
Online: 23 January 2018 (17:23:25 CET)
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We examine how observations can be used to evaluate an air quality analysis by verifying against passive observations (i.e. cross-validation) that are not used to create the analysis and we compare these verifications to those made against the same set of (active) observations that were used to generate the analysis. The results show that both active and passive observations can be used to evaluate of first moment metrics (e.g. bias) but only passive observations are useful to evaluate second moment metrics such as variance of observed-minus-analysis and correlation between observations and analysis. We derive a set of diagnostics based on passive observation–minus-analysis residuals and we show that the true analysis error variance can be estimated, without relying on any statistical optimality assumption. This diagnostic is used to obtain near optimal analyses that are then used to evaluate the analysis error using several different methods. We compare the estimates according to the method of Hollingsworth Lonnberg, Desroziers, a diagnostic we introduce, and the perceived analysis error computed from the analysis scheme, to conclude that as long as the analysis is optimal, all estimates agrees within a certain error margin. The analysis error variance at passive observation sites is also obtained.
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Earth Sciences, Atmospheric Science; Philippines; rainfall; precipitation; Gamma distribution; probability; weather risk
Online: 21 December 2017 (05:43:17 CET)
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Philippines as an archipelago and tropical country, which is situated near the Pacific ocean, faces uncertain rainfall intensities. This makes environmental, agricultural and economic systems affected by precipitation difficult to manage. Time series analysis of Philippine rainfall pattern has been previously done, but there is no study investigating its probability distribution. Modeling the Philippine rainfall using probability distributions is essential, especially in managing risks and designing insurance products. Here, daily and cumulative rainfall data (January 1961 - August 2016) from 28 PAGASA weather stations are fitted to probability distributions. Moreover, the fitted distributions are examined for invariance under subsets of the rainfall data set. We observe that the Gamma distribution is a suitable fit for the daily up to the ten-day cumulative rainfall data. Our results can be used in agriculture, especially in forecasting claims in weather index-based insurance.
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Earth Sciences, Atmospheric Science; model; temperature; urban; warming
Online: 12 December 2017 (08:18:48 CET)
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There is a perception among the inhabitants of the Aburrá Valley Region, that this heavily populated region, situated in the Andean mountains of Colombia, has been suffering large temperature raises in the last years, especially in the last decade. To give perspective about this issue, the authors have gone through the available information about temperature changes in three meteorological stations in the region and have correlated it with a set of variables of urban, climatic and energetic nature, with the intention of developing an approximate model to understand the temperature changes. Changes in the mean temperature, based on the linear tendencies, were estimated on 0.47ºC for the 20 years between 1995 and 2015; 60% of change was found to be related to local human activities and 40% was attributed to the impact of global warming.
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Earth Sciences, Atmospheric Science; Biogenic emissions; Greece; Geographic Information System (GIS)
Online: 7 December 2017 (16:44:08 CET)
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Biogenic emissions affect the urban air quality as they are ozone and SOA precursors and should be taken into account when applying photochemical pollution models. The present study presents an estimation of the magnitude of Non-Methane Volatile Organic Compounds emissions (NMVOCs) emitted by vegetation over Greece. The methodology is based on computation performed with the aid of a Geographic Information System (GIS) and theoretical equations in order to develop an emission inventory on a 6x6 spatial resolution, in a temporal resolution of 1hr covering one year (2016). For this purpose, a variety of input data was used: improved satellite land-use data, land-use specific emission potentials, foliar biomass densities, temperature and solar radiation data. Hourly, daily and annual isoprene, monoterpenes and other volatile organic compounds (OVOCs) were estimated. In the area under study, the annual biogenic emissions were estimated up to 472 kt, consisting of 46.6% isoprene, 28% monoterpenes and 25.4% OVOCs. Results delineate an annual cycle with increasing values from March to April, while maximum emissions were observed from May to September, followed by a decrease from October to January.
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Earth Sciences, Atmospheric Science; cumulonimbus; thunderstorms; stability filter; aviation
Online: 30 November 2017 (08:37:21 CET)
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The study investigates the role of NWP filtering for the remote sensing of Cumulonimbus Clouds (Cbs) by implementation of 14 different experiments, covering Central Europe. These experiments compiles different stability filter settings as well as the use of different channels for the InfraRed (IR) brightness temperatures. As stability filter parameters from Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) are used. The brightness temperature information results from the IR SEVIRI instrument on-board of Meteosat Second Generation satellite and enables the detection of very cold and high clouds close to the tropopause. The satellite only approaches (no NWP filtering) result in the detection of Cbs with a relative high probability of detection, but unfortunately combined with a large False Alarm Rate (FAR), leading to a Critical Success Index (CSI) below 60 %. The false alarms results from other types of very cold and high clouds. It is shown that the false alarms can be significantly decreased by application of an appropriate NWP stability filter, leading to the increase of CSI to about 70 % . A brief review and reflection of the literature clarifies that the this function of the NWP filter can not be replaced by MSG IR spectroscopy. Thus, NWP filtering is strongly recommended to increase the quality of satellite based Cb detection. Further, it has been shown that the well established convective available potential energy (CAPE) and the convection index (KO) works well as stability filter.
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Earth Sciences, Atmospheric Science; atmospheric mercury; Baltic Sea; mapping of TGM levels; long range transport
Online: 24 November 2017 (10:00:15 CET)
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Mercury is a toxic pollutant emitted from both natural sources and through human activities. A global interest in atmospheric mercury has risen ever since the discovery of the Minamata disease in 1956. Properties of gaseous elemental mercury enable long range transport which can cause pollution even in pristine environments. Total gaseous mercury (TGM) was measured from winter 2016 to spring 2017 over the Baltic Sea. A Tekran 2357A mercury analyser was installed aboard the research and icebreaking vessel Oden for the purpose of continuous measurements of gaseous mercury in ambient air. Measurements were performed during a campaign along the Swedish east coast and in the Bothnian Bay near Lulea during the icebreaking season. Data was evaluated from Gothenburg using a plotting software and back trajectories for air masses were calculated. The TGM average of 1.365 ± 0.054 ng/m3 during winter and 1.288 ± 0.140 ng/m3 during spring was calculated as well as a total average of 1.362 ± 0.158 ng/m3. Back trajectories showed a possible correlation of anthropogenic sources elevating the mercury background level in some areas. There were also indications of depleted air, i.e., air with lower concentrations than average, being transported from the Arctic to northern Sweden resulting in a drop in TGM levels.
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Earth Sciences, Atmospheric Science; data assimilation; statistical diagnostics of analysis residuals; estimation of analysis error, air quality model diagnostics; Desroziers et al. method; cross-validation
Online: 7 November 2017 (11:09:42 CET)
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We present a general theory of estimation of analysis error covariances based on cross-validation as well as a geometric interpretation of the method. In particular we use the variance of passive observation–minus-analysis residuals and show that the true analysis error variance can be estimated, without relying on the optimality assumption. This approach is used to obtain near optimal analyses that are then used to evaluate the air quality analysis error using several different methods at active and passive observation sites. We compare the estimates according to the method of Hollingsworth-Lönnberg, Desroziers et al., a new diagnostic we developed, and the perceived analysis error computed from the analysis scheme, to conclude that, as long as the analysis is near optimal, all estimates agree within a certain error margin.
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Isaac Mugume,
Michel d. S. Mesquita,
Yazidhi Bamutaze,
Didier Ntwali,
Charles Basalirwa,
Daniel Waiswa,
Joachim Reuder,
Revocatus Twinomuhangi,
Fredrick Tumwine,
Triphonia Jakob Ngailo,
Bob Alex Ogwang
Earth Sciences, Atmospheric Science; Ensemble mean; Analogue ensemble mean; Multi–member analogue ensemble mean; Quantitative rainfall prediction
Online: 31 October 2017 (17:28:54 CET)
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Accurate and timely rainfall prediction enhances productivity and can aid proper planning in sectors such as agriculture, health, transport and water resources. This study is aimed at improving rainfall prediction using ensemble methods. It first assesses the performance of six convective schemes (Kain–Fritsch (KF); Betts–Miller–Janji´c (BMJ); Grell–Fretas (GF); Grell 3D ensemble (G3); New–Tiedke (NT) and Grell–Devenyi (GD)) using the root mean square error (RMSE) and mean error (ME) focusing on the March–May 2013 rainfall period over Uganda. 18 ensemble members are generated from the three best performing convective schemes (i.e. KF, GF & G3). The performance of three ensemble methods (i.e. ensemble mean (EM); ensemble mean analogue (EMA) and multi–member analogue ensemble (MAEM)) is also analyzed using the RMSE and ME. The EM presented a smaller RMSE compared to individual schemes (EM:10.02; KF:23.96; BMJ:26.04; GF:25.85; G3:24.07; NT:29.13 & GD:26.27) and a better bias (EM:-1.28; KF:-1.62; BMJ:-4.04; GF:-3.90; G3:-3.62; NT:-5.41 & GD:-4.07). The EMA and MAEM presented 13 out of 21 stations & 17 out of 21 stations respectively with smaller RMSE compared to EM thus demonstrating additional improvement in predictive performance. The MAEM is a new approach proposed and described in the study.
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Earth Sciences, Atmospheric Science; Dust; High resolution; Particulate matter; Modeling; Air quality; Hemispheric transport
Online: 24 October 2017 (06:27:48 CEST)
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Mineral dust is one of the most important aerosol in mass over the world, affecting health and dynamics. This aerosol is mainly emitted over arid areas but may be long-range transported, impacting the local budget of air quality in many cities. While models were extensively used to study a single specific event, or making a global analysis at coarse resolution, the goal of our study is to simultaneously focus on several areas - Europe, North America, Central Asia, East China and the Caribbean area - for a one month period, March 2014, avoiding any parameter fitting to better simulate a given dust outbreak. The simulation is performed for the first time with the hemispheric version of the CHIMERE model, with a horizontal resolution of 10km. In this study, an overview of several simultaneous dust outbreaks over the north hemisphere is proposed to assess the capability of such modelling tools to predict dust pollution events. A quantitative and qualitative evaluation of the most striking episodes is presented with comparisons to satellite data, ground based Particulate Matter and calcium measurements. Despite some overestimation of dust concentrations far from emission areas, the model is able to simulate the timing of the arrival of dust outbreaks on observational sites. For instance, several spectacular dust storms in the US and China are perfectly captured by the models. The high resolution allows to better describe and understand the orographic effects and the long-range transport of dust plumes.
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Earth Sciences, Atmospheric Science; Lidar system; depolarization channel; calibration; stability; depolarizing particles
Online: 13 October 2017 (20:07:24 CEST)
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A new approach to the measurement with elastic lidar of depolarization produced by atmospheric aerosols is presented. The system uses two different telescopes: one for depolarization measurements and another for total-power measurements. The system architecture and principle of operation are described. The first experimental results are also presented, corresponding to a collection of atmospheric conditions over the city of Barcelona.
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Earth Sciences, Atmospheric Science; volcanic gases; SO2; remote sensing; UV cameras; image processing; analysis software; Python 2.7
Online: 13 October 2017 (06:00:49 CEST)
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UV SO2 cameras have become a common tool to measure and monitor SO2-emission-rates, mostly from volcanoes but also from anthropogenic sources (e.g. power plants or ships). In the past years, the analysis of UV SO2 camera data has seen many improvements. As a result, for many of the required analysis steps, several alternatives exist today. This inspired the development of Pyplis, an open-source software toolbox written in Python 2.7, which aims to unify the most prevalent methods from literature within a single, cross-platform analysis framework. Pyplis comprises a vast collection of algorithms relevant for the analysis of UV SO2 camera data. These include several routines to retrieve plume background radiances as well as routines for cell and DOAS based camera calibration. The latter includes two independent methods to identify the DOAS field-of-view within the camera images. Plume velocities can be retrieved using an optical flow algorithm as well as signal cross-correlation. Furthermore, Pyplis includes a routine to perform a first order correction of the signal dilution effect. All required geometrical calculations are performed within a 3D model environment allowing for distance retrievals to plume and local terrain features on a pixel basis. SO2-emission-rates can be retrieved simultaneously for an arbitrary number of plume intersections. Pyplis has been extensively and successfully tested using data from several field campaigns. Here, the main features are introduced using a dataset obtained at Mt. Etna, Italy on 16 September 2015.
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Earth Sciences, Atmospheric Science; Tropospheric ozone; pollution episode; satellite measurements; regional transport
Online: 4 October 2017 (13:23:38 CEST)
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We use a regional scale photochemical transport model to investigate the surface concentrations and column integrated amounts of ozone (O3) and nitrogen dioxide (NO2) during a pollution event that occurred in the St. Louis metropolitan region in 2012. These trace gases will be two of the primary constituents that will be measured by TEMPO (Tropospheric Emissions: Monitoring of Pollution), an instrument on a geostationary platform, which will result in a dataset that has hourly temporal resolution during the daytime and ~4 km spatial resolution. Although air quality managers are most concerned with surface concentrations, satellite measurements provide a quantity that reflects a column amount, which may or may not be directly relatable to what is measured at the surface. Our model results provide reasonably good agreement with observed surface O3 concentrations (correlation coefficients ranging from 0.69 to 0.87 at each of the nine monitoring stations in the St. Louis region), which is the only trace gas dataset that can be used for verification. The model shows that a plume of O3 extends downwind from St. Louis and contains an integrated amount of ozone of ~ 16 Dobson Units (DU; 1 DU = 2.69 x 1016 molecules cm-2), an amount lower than what was observed during two massive pollution episodes in the 1980s. Based on the smaller isolatable emissions coming from St. Louis, this quantity is not unreasonable, but may also reflect the reduction of photochemical ozone production due to the implementation of emission controls that have gone into effect since the 1980s.
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Earth Sciences, Atmospheric Science; multi-sensor fusion; satellite; radar; precipitation
Online: 27 September 2017 (06:09:22 CEST)
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This paper presents a new and enhanced fusion module for the Multi-Sensor Precipitation Estimator (MPE) that would objectively blend real-time satellite quantitative precipitation estimates (SQPE) with radar and gauge estimates. This module consists of a preprocessor that mitigates systematic bias in SQPE, and a two-way blending routine that statistically fuses adjusted SQPE with radar estimates. The preprocessor not only corrects systematic bias in SQPE, but also improves the spatial distribution of precipitation based on SQPE and makes it closely resemble that of radar-based observations. It uses a more sophisticated radar-satellite merging technique to blend preprocessed datasets, and provides a better overall QPE product. The performance of the new satellite-radar-gauge blending module is assessed using independent rain gauge data over a 5-year period between 2003-2007, and the assessment evaluates the accuracy of newly developed satellite-radar-gauge (SRG) blended products versus that of radar-gauge products (which represents MPE algorithm currently used in the NWS operations) over two regions: I) inside radar effective coverage and II) immediately outside radar coverage. The outcomes of the evaluation indicate a) ingest of SQPE over areas within effective radar coverage improve the quality of QPE by mitigating the errors in radar estimates in region I; and b) blending of radar, gauge, and satellite estimates over region II leads to reduction of errors relative to bias-corrected SQPE. In addition, the new module alleviates the discontinuities along the boundaries of radar effective coverage otherwise seen when SQPE is used directly to fill the areas outside of effective radar coverage.
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Earth Sciences, Atmospheric Science; solar cyclic variability; Canonical and Modoki ENSO; Indian summer monsoon
Online: 26 September 2017 (06:13:47 CEST)
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A flow chart is presented depicting coupling in ocean-atmosphere system, initiated by solar decadal variability that involves El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Possible mechanisms for Canonic ENSO, Modoki ENSO and Canonic-Modoki ENSO are proposed considering their relevance to the decadal variation of Hadley, Walker circulation and mid-latitude jets. It also discusses subsequent teleconnections by ENSO on Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM) with a special emphasis on later two decades of the last century. Possible mechanisms relating to a disruption of the usual ENSO-ISM teleconnection for those decades are emphasised; the role of volcanos and the change in the sun- NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation) connection were attended. The regional Hadley circulation, via the NAO in the northern hemisphere and Indian Ocean Dipole in the southern hemisphere, during that period, may have a role in the change in ISM behaviour- which though captured in observation but missed by models. The representation of flow chart helps to improve understanding of various types of ENSO in both temporal as well as spatial scale. The overall study subsequently can benefit the modelling community by not only improved the representation of ENSO in models but also better representation of ISM teleconnection via regional Hadley cell.
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Earth Sciences, Atmospheric Science; snow depth; snow cover; soil moisture; snowmelt; seasonal prediction; land-atmosphere feedbacks
Online: 23 August 2017 (10:05:47 CEST)
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Subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) weather forecasting has improved in recent years, thanks partly to better representation of physical variables in models. For instance, realistic initializations of snow and soil moisture in models yield enhanced predictability on S2S time scales. Snow depth and soil moisture also mediate month-to-month persistence of near-surface air temperature. Here the role of snow depth as predictor of temperature one month ahead in the Northern Hemisphere is probed via two causal pathways. Through the first pathway, snow depth anomalies in month 1 cause snow depth anomalies in month 2, which then cause temperature anomalies in month 2. This pathway represents the snow–albedo feedback, as well as cooling due to insulation, emissivity and heat loss. It is active from fall to summer, and its effect peaks in March/April in the midlatitudes and in May/June at high latitudes. A complementary second pathway, where snow depth anomalies in month 1 cause soil moisture anomalies in month 2, which then cause temperature anomalies in month 2 through soil moisture–temperature feedbacks, is only active in spring and summer. Its effect peaks later in the warm season than the effect of the first pathway. Geographically, snow depth mediates north of, and soil moisture south of, the areas with the highest temperature predictability from snow depth. These results indicate that the two pathways describe complementary physical mechanisms. The first pathway embodies month-to-month persistence of snow depth, and the second pathway represents melting of snow from one month to the next.
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Earth Sciences, Atmospheric Science; Lightning; Stepped leader; Space leader; Space stem
Online: 22 August 2017 (19:28:25 CEST)
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A physical model based on the mechanism observed in experimental investigations is introduced to describe the formation of negative leader steps. Starting with a small length of a space leader located at the periphery of the negative streamer system of the stepped leader the model simulates the growth and the subsequent formation of the leader step. Based on the model, the average step length, the average step forming time and the average stepped leader propagation speed is estimated as a function of prospective return stroke peak current. The results show that the average step length and the average leader speed increases with increasing prospective return stroke current. The results also show that the speed of the stepped leader increases as it approaches the ground. For a 30 kA prospective return stroke current the average leader speed obtained is about 5 x 105 m/s and the average step length was about 10 m. The results obtained are in reasonable agreement with the experimental observations.
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Earth Sciences, Atmospheric Science; vertical air velocity; millimeter-wave cloud radar; convective cloud; Tibetan Plateau
Online: 21 July 2017 (06:58:56 CEST)
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In the summertime, convections occur frequently over the Tibetan Plateau (TP) because of the large dynamic and thermal effects of the landmass. Measurements of vertical air velocity in convective cloud are useful for advancing our understanding of the dynamic and microphysical mechanisms of clouds and can be used to improve the parameterization of current numerical models. This paper presents a technique for retrieving high-resolution vertical air velocity from convective cloud over the TP, by using Doppler spectra from a vertically pointing Ka-band cloud radar. The method is based on the development of a “small-particle-traced” idea and the necessary data processing and uses three modes of radar. Spectral broadening corrections, uncertainty estimations, and result merging are used to ensure accurate results. Qualitative analysis of two typical convective cases shows that the retrievals are reliable and agree with the expectant results inferred from other radar measurements. A quantitative retrieval of vertical air motion from a ground-based optical disdrometer is used to preliminarily validate our radar-derived results. The comparison illustrates that while the data trends from the two methods of retrieval are similar, with the updrafts and downdrafts coinciding, cloud radar has a much higher resolution and can reveal the small-scale variation of vertical air motion.
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Earth Sciences, Atmospheric Science; renewable energy; solar; wind; interannual variability; seasonal forecasting; teleconnections
Online: 7 July 2017 (05:55:54 CEST)
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Solar and wind resources available for power generation are subject to variability due to meteorological factors. Here, we use a new global climate reanalysis product, Version 2 of the NASA Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA-2), to quantify interannual variability of monthly-mean solar and wind resource from 1980 to 2016 at a resolution of about 0.5 degrees. We find an average coefficient of variation (CV) of 11% for monthly-mean solar radiation and 8% for windspeed. Mean CVs were about 25% greater over ocean than over land, and, for land areas, were greatest at high latitude. The correlation between solar and wind anomalies was near zero in the global mean, but markedly positive or negative in some regions. Both wind and solar variability were correlated with values of climate modes such as the Southern Oscillation Index and Arctic Oscillation, with correlations in the Northern Hemisphere generally stronger during winter. We conclude that reanalysis solar and wind fields could be helpful in assessing variability in power generation due to interannual fluctuations in the wind and solar resource. Skillful prediction of these fluctuations seems to be possible, particularly for certain regions and seasons, given persistence or predictability of climate modes with which these fluctuations are associated.
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Earth Sciences, Atmospheric Science; tropospheric emissions; CTM; tropospheric ozone; industrial emissions; biomass buring; vegetation emissions; simulation
Online: 20 June 2017 (06:28:19 CEST)
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In this work, we examined the effect of tropospheric emissions on tropospheric ozone (O3) by conducting three-dimensional (3D) chemistry transport model (CTM) simulations. For the control run, the CTM model simulates tropospheric O3 levels with a complete set of anthropogenic, biomass burning, and vegetation emissions [8]. For the no-emission simulation, all anthropogenic, biomass burning, and vegetation emissions were turned off. Comparisons of results from these two simulations exhibit the emission impacts on the tropospheric O3. In the no-emission simulation, distinctive low surface O3 with concentrations less than 5 ppbv prevail over the Amazon basin, tropical South America, tropical South Africa, Southeast Asia. Transport of air from these land areas downwind contributes to the low O3 over the remote marine boundary layer. In contrast, elevated O3 levels over the extra-tropical remote marine boundary layer are less supported by the anthropogenic and biomass burning emissions but more sustained by the downward transport of O3 from the stratosphere. These results demonstrate that the northern hemisphere continental areas (north of 30◦N ), polar regions, and tropical continental regions are more sensitive to the tropospheric emissions. The northern hemisphere winter is mostly dominated by the stratospheric processes, while the tropospheric emissions dominate over the southern hemisphere tropical continental areas from tropics to 30◦S latitudinal bands. The northern hemisphere continental regions are increasingly dominated by tropospheric emissions from spring, to reach maxima in summer, and started to reduce in autumn months.
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Miho Kiriya,
Tomoaki Okuda,
Hana Yamazaki,
Kazuki Hatoya,
Naoki Kaneyasu,
Itsushi Uno,
Chiharu Nishita,
Keiichiro Hara,
Masahiko Hayashi,
Koji Funato,
Kozo Inoue,
Shigekazu Yamamoto,
Ayako Yoshino,
Akinori Takami
Earth Sciences, Atmospheric Science; Asian monsoon; black carbon; long-range transport; land and sea breeze; sulfate; surface area; surface coating of particles
Online: 8 June 2017 (10:26:27 CEST)
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Observation of the ambient aerosol surface area concentrations is important to understand the aerosol toxicity because an increased surface area may be able to act as an enhanced reaction interface for certain reactions between aerosol particles and biological cells, as well as an augmented carrier surface for co-pollutants. In this study, the concentration of aerosol surface area was measured from April 2015 to March 2016 in Fukuoka, Japan. We investigated the monthly and diurnal variations in the correlations between the aerosol surface area and black carbon (BC) and sulfate concentrations. Throughout the year, aerosol surface area concentration was strongly correlated with the concentrations of BC, which has relatively large surface area since BC particles are usually submicron agglomerates consisting of much smaller (tens of nanometers) sized primary soot particles. The slopes of the regression between the aerosol surface area and BC concentrations was highest in August and September 2015. This appears to have been the results of an increase in the proportion of the airmass that originated on the main islands of Japan. This may enhance the introduction of the BC from the main islands of Japan that is relatively fresh (or “uncoated”), thereby maintaining its larger surface area.
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Earth Sciences, Atmospheric Science; GNSS-R; ice sheet; TDS-1; greenland; altimetry
Online: 23 May 2017 (10:46:30 CEST)
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Radar altimetry provides valuable measurements to characterize the state and the evolution of the Antartica and Greenland ice sheet cover. Global Navigation Satellite System Reflectometry (GNSS-R) has the potential capacity of complementing the dedicated radar altimeters incrementing the temporal and spatial resolution of the surface height measurements. In this work we perform an study of the Greenland ice sheet using data obtained by the GNSS-R instrument aboard the British TechDemoSat-1 (TDS-1) satellite mission, designed primarily to provide sea state information, like sea surface roughness or wind, but not altimetric products. The data has been analyzed with altimetric methodologies, already proved in aircraft based experiments, to extract signal delay observables to be used to infer the topography of the Greenland cover. The penetration depth of the GNSS signals into ice has also considered. The topographic signal obtained is consistent with those obtained with other passive or active microwave sensors. The main conclusion derived from this work is that GNSS-R also provides valuable measurements of the ice sheet cover and, as taken at a variety of geometries and at least two frequency bands, they prospect different depths into the ice. They have thus potential to complement our understanding of the ice firn and its evolution.
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Earth Sciences, Atmospheric Science; AOD; coastal water; MODIS; retrieval
Online: 22 May 2017 (07:53:30 CEST)
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We present a new approach to retrieve Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD) from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) over the turbid coastal water. This approach supplements the operational Dark Target (DT) aerosol retrieval algorithm that currently don’t conduct any AOD retrieval in the regions with large water-leaving radiances in the visible spectrum. Over the global coastal water regions in all cloud-free conditions, this unavailability of AOD retrievals due to the inherent limitation in existing DT algorithm is ~20%. Here, we refine the MODIS DT algorithm by considering that water-leaving radiance at 2.1 μm is negligible regardless of water turbidity. This refinement, with the assumption that the aerosol single scattering properties over coastal turbid water are similar to that over the adjacent open-ocean pixels, yields ~18% more of MODIS-AERONET collocated pairs for six AEROENT stations in the coastal water regions. Furthermore, comparison with these AERONET observations show that the new AOD retrievals are in either equivalent or better accuracy than those retrieved by the MODIS operational algorithm (over coastal land and non-turbid coastal water). Combining the new retrievals with the existing MODIS operational retrievals not only yield an overall improvement of AOD over those coastal water regions, but also successfully extend the spatial and temporal coverage of MODIS AOD retrievals over the coastal regions where 60% of human population resides, and thereby, aerosol impacts on regional air quality and climate are expected to be significant.
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Earth Sciences, Atmospheric Science; solar variability; NAO; ENSO; volcanic eruptions; multiple regression
Online: 17 May 2017 (08:27:16 CEST)
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The role of natural factors mainly solar eleven-year cycle variability, and volcanic eruptions on two major modes of climate variability the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) are studied for around last 150 years period. The NAO is the primary factor to regulate Central England Temperature (CET) during winter throughout the period, though NAO is impacted differently by other factors in various time periods. Solar variability indicates a strong positive influence on NAO during 1978-1997, though suggests opposite in earlier period. Solar NAO lag relationship is also shown sensitive to the chosen times of reference and thus points towards the previously proposed mechanism/ relationship related to the sun and NAO. The ENSO is influenced strongly by solar variability and volcanic eruptions in certain periods. This study observes a strong negative association between the sun and ENSO before the 1950s, which is even opposite during the second half of 20th century. The period 1978-1997, when two strong eruptions coincided with active years of strong solar cycles, the ENSO, and volcano suggested a stronger association, and we discussed the important role played by ENSO. That period showed warming in central tropical Pacific while cooling in the North Atlantic with reference to the later period (1999-2017) and also from chosen earlier period. Here we show that the mean atmospheric state is important for understanding the connection between solar variability, the NAO and ENSO and associated mechanism. It presents a critical analysis to improve knowledge about major modes of variability and their role in climate. We also discussed the importance of detecting the robust signal of natural variability, mainly the sun.
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Earth Sciences, Atmospheric Science; nighttime fires; gas flaring; MODIS; VIIRS; Khanty-Mansiysk Russia
Online: 8 May 2017 (10:15:08 CEST)
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Gas flaring is commonly used by industrial plants for processing oil and natural gases in the atmosphere, and hence is an important anthropogenic source for various pollutants including CO2, CO, and aerosols. This study evaluates the feasibility of using satellite data to characterize gas flaring form space by focusing on the Khanty Mansiysk Autonomous Okrug in Russia, a region that is well known for its dominatingly gas flaring activities. Multiple satellite-based thermal anomaly data products at night are inter-compared and analyzed, including MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) Terra level-2 Thermal Anomalies product (MOD14), MODIS Aqua level-2 Thermal Anomalies product (MYD14), VIIRS (Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite) Active Fires Applications Related Product (VAFP), and VIIRS level-2 data based Nightfire product (VNF). The analysis compares and contrasts the efficacy of these sensor products in detecting small, hot sources like flares on the ground in extremely cold environments such as Russia. We found that the VNF algorithm recently launched by NOAA has the unprecedented accuracy and efficiency in characterizing gas flares in the region owing primarily to the use of Shortwave Infrared (SWIR) bands. Reconciliation of VNF’s differences and similarities with other nighttime fire products is also conducted, indicating that MOD14/MYD14 and VAFP data are only effective in detecting those gas flaring pixels that are among the hottest in the region. Validation of VNF product of gas flaring location with Google Earth images are made. It is shown that that VNF’s estimates of gas flaring area (the area of gas flaming) agree well the counterparts from Google images with a linear correlation of 0.91, highlighting its potential use for routinely monitoring emissions of gas flaring from space.
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Earth Sciences, Atmospheric Science; Cold air outbreaks; Air–sea interaction; Polar climate; Wind speed; polar lows
Online: 2 May 2017 (19:45:56 CEST)
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Marine cold air outbreaks (MCAOs) are large-scale events in which cold air masses are advected over open ocean. It is well-known that these events are linked to the formation of polar lows and other mesoscale phenomena associated with high wind speeds, and that they therefore in some cases represent a hazard to maritime activities. However, it is still unknown whether MCAOs are generally conducive to higher wind speeds than normal. Here this is investigated by comparing ocean near-surface wind speeds during MCAOs in atmospheric reanalysis products with different horizontal grid spacings, along with two case studies using a convection-permitting numerical weather prediction model. The study regions are the Labrador Sea and the Greenland–Iceland–Norwegian (GIN) Seas, where MCAOs have been shown to be important for air–sea interaction and deep water formation. One of the main findings is that wind speeds during the strongest MCAO events are higher than normal and higher than wind speeds during less severe events. Limited evidence from the case studies suggests that reanalyses with grid spacings of more than 50 km underestimate winds driven by the large ocean–atmosphere energy fluxes during MCAOs. The peak times of MCAO usually occur when baroclinic waves pass over the regions. Therefore, the strong wind episodes during MCAOs generally last for just a few days. However, MCAOs can persist for 50 days or more.
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Earth Sciences, Atmospheric Science; onboard cloud detecion; region of interesting compression; themodynamic phase; spectral angle map; markov random field; dynamic stochastic resonance
Online: 1 May 2017 (12:44:08 CEST)
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It is strongly desirable to accurately detect the clouds in hyperspectral images onboard before compression. However, conventional onboard cloud detection methods are not appropriate to all situation such as shadowed cloud or darken snow covered surfaces which are not identified properly in the NDSI test. In this paper, we propose a new spectral–spatial classification strategy to enhance the orbiting cloud screen performances obtained on hyperspectral images by integrating threshold assisted exponential spectral angle map (TESAM), adaptive Markov random fields (aMRFs) and dynamic stochastic resonance (DSR). First, TESAM is performed to classify the cloud pixels coarsely based on spectral information. Then aMRFs is performed to do optimal process by using spatial information, which improved the classification performance significantly. But some misclassification points still exist after aMRFs processing because of the noise of data in the onboard environment. DSR is used to eliminate misclassification points in binary labeling image after aMRFs. Taking level 0.5 data from hyperion as dataset, the average overall accuracy of the proposed algorithm is 96.28% after test. The method can provide an accurate cloud mask for the on-going EO-1 images and the similar satellites with the same spectral settings without manual intervention. The experiment indicate that the proposed method reveals better performance than the classical onboard cloud detection or current advanced hyperspectral classification methods.
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Earth Sciences, Atmospheric Science; Airport; Local Air Quality; Local Scale
Online: 11 April 2017 (19:32:40 CEST)
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Local air quality is a major concern for the population regularly exposed to high levels of air pollution. The airport, mainly due to its aircraft engines activities during taxiing and take off, is often submitted to heterogeneous but important concentrations of NOx and PM. The study suggests an innovative approach to determine the air traffic impact on air quality at the scale of the airport, its runways and terminals, in order to be able to locate the persistent high concentrations spots. The pollutants concentrations at 10 m resolution and 1 s time step are calculated in order to identify the most affected areas of an airport platform. A real day of air traffic on a regional airport is simulated, using real data as aircraft trajectories (from radar streams). In order to estimate the aircraft emissions, the Air Transport Systems Evaluation Infrastructure (IESTA) is used. Regarding local air quality, IESTA relies on the non-hydrostatic meso-scale atmospheric model Meso-NH using grid-nesting capabilities with 3 domains, for this study. The detailed cartography of the airport distinguishes between grassland, parking and terminals, allowing to compute exchanges of heat, water and momentum between the different types of surfaces and the atmosphere as well as the interactions with the building using a drag force. The dynamic parameters like wind, temperature, turbulent kinetic energy and pollutants concentration are computed at 10 m resolution over the 2 × 4 km airport domain. The pollutants are considered in this preliminary study as passive tracers, without chemical reactions. This preliminary study aims at proving the feasibility of high scale modelling over an airport with state of the art physical models.
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Earth Sciences, Atmospheric Science; carbon monoxide; diurnal cycle; seasonal cycle; urban pollution; pollution trends
Online: 4 April 2017 (13:14:07 CEST)
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Air pollution is an important public health issue. High levels of carbon monoxide in the atmosphere are hazardous to human health. Studies regarding the concentration of this and other gases in the atmosphere allow political actions to manage and reduce the emission of pollutants. In this context, this paper studied the annual, seasonal and daily variations of carbon monoxide (CO) concentration for the Metropolitan Region of São Paulo (MRSP). We studied three sites in the MRSP, chosen due to the longer time series and the localities. Two of them are located in areas under the influence of heavy vehicle traffic (Osasco and Congonhas) and the third one in a city park (Ibirapuera Park). The results showed high influence of gasoline vehicles on CO emission. In the annual scale, instead of following the increasing number of vehicles, CO emission and concentration decreased due to improvements in emission technology. CO emission showed a seasonal, weekly and diurnal cycle. The highest values of mean concentration were observed in June/July for Osasco (2.20 ppm), Congonhas (2.04 ppm) and Ibirapuera (1.04 ppm), during the morning, due to weak dispersion of the polluting gases.
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Earth Sciences, Atmospheric Science; size distribution; OC; EC; seasonal variation; Yangtze River Delta
Online: 1 March 2017 (17:59:27 CET)
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In order to investigate the size distributions and seasonal variations of carbonaceous aerosols (OC and EC), the carbonaceous species were collected and then analyzed by using a 9-stage Anderson-type aerosol sampler and DRI Model 2001A Thermal/Optical Carbon Analyzer on the typical industrial city Nanjing in Yangtze River Delta, China in the summer, autumn and winter of 2013 and spring of 2014. OC, EC, SOC and POC exhibited obvious seasonal variations, with the highest level in winter (39.1±14.0, 5.7±2.1, 23.6±11.7 and 14.1±5.7 μg•m-3) and the lowest level in summer (20.6±6.7, 3.3±2.0, 12.2±3.8 and 8.4±4.1 μg•m-3), and were mainly centralized in PM1.1 in four seasons. The concentrations of OC in PM1.1 varied in the order of winter > autumn > spring > summer, while EC ranked in the order of autumn > winter > summer > spring. In the PM1.1-2.1 and PM2.1-10, the concentrations of OC and EC decreased in the sequence of winter > spring > autumn > summer. The size spectra of OC, EC and SOC had bimodal distributions in four seasons, except for EC with four peaks in summer. The size spectra of POC varied greatly with seasons, exhibiting bimodal distribution in winter, trimodal distribution in spring and summer, and four peaks in autumn. The OC/EC ratios were 7.0, 6.3, 7.6 and 6.9 in spring, summer, autumn and winter, respectively, which demonstrated the abundance of secondary organic aerosols in Nanjing. The sources of carbonaceous aerosol varied significantly with seasons, and were dominated by vehicle exhaust, coal and biomass burning in PM2.1, and dominant by dust, coal and biomass burning in PM2.1-10.
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Earth Sciences, Atmospheric Science; reference evapotranspiration; climatic change; drought/wet; Songnen Grassland
Online: 22 February 2017 (17:46:01 CET)
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Reference evapotranspiration (ET0) plays an irreplaceable role in regional dry/wet conditions under the background of climate change. Based on the FAO Penman-Monteith method and daily climate variables, ET0 was calculated for 22 stations in and around Songnen Grassland, northeast China, during 1960-2014. The temporal and spatial variations of ET0 and precipitation (P) were comprehensively analyzed at different time scales by using the Mann-Kendall test, Sen’s slope estimator, and linear regression coupling with break trend analysis. Sensitivity analysis was used to detect the key climate parameter attributed to ET0 change. Then, the role of ET0 in regional dry/wet conditions was discussed by analyzing the relationship between ET0, P and aridity index (AI). Results shown a higher ET0 in the southwest and a lower in the northeast, but P was opposite to that of ET0. Evidently decreasing trend of ET0 at different time scales was detected in almost the entire region, and the significant trend mainly distributed in the eastern, northeastern and central. For the whole region, sensitivity analysis indicated decreasing trend of ET0 was primarily attributed to relative humidity and maximum air temperature. The positive contribution of increasing temperature rising to ET0 was offset by the effect of significantly decreasing relative humidity, wind speed and sunshine duration. In addition, the value of ET0 shown higher in drought years and lower in wet years.
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Earth Sciences, Atmospheric Science; temperature; precipitation; ethiopia; mann kendall; climate variability
Online: 5 February 2017 (09:56:29 CET)
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Long term Precipitation and temperature variations are one of the main determinants of climate variability of one’s area. The aim of this study is to determine trends variation in climatic elements of temperature and precipitation in the southern zone of Tigray regional state, Ethiopia. The station is assumed for the study of climatic records over southern zone of the region in detection for probable trends. The daily, monthly and annual precipitation totals and temperature observed at korem meteorological station were used for the period of 1981-2010 for Precipitation and 1985 – 2010 for minimum and maximum temperature. Summary of descriptive statistics and Mann Kendall test methods were employed for the observed data analysis to demonstrate any existence of possible trends. The main findings of the study indicated that the mean and maximum temperature had a general increasing trend; however, minimum temperature showed decreasing trend. In general annual temperature from 1985 – 2010 of the area showed a warming trend. Moreover analysis of the 30 years (1981-2010) annual precipitation showed a coefficient of variation ranging from 33.77 – 233 %. It indicated that the precipitation dissemination is not normal with large year to year variances.
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Earth Sciences, Atmospheric Science; human thermal comfort-discomfort; Fanger’s model; PMV; PPD
Online: 25 December 2016 (09:48:27 CET)
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The Predicted Mean Vote (PMV) and the Predicted Percentage of Dissatisfied (PPD) indices are used to assess the indoor environment in terms of human thermal comfort-discomfort. In this study, an experimental combined objective and subjective investigation of thermal comfort perception has been performed in students between 16-18 years old, in a non-air-conditioned school building. The objective approach included instrumentation measurements and data processing according to ISO 7730, whereas, the subjective one was based on answers collection following ISO 10551. The study is mainly devoted to the verification of Fanger’s approach in a building, in free running conditions, under a mild (moderate) climate.The comparison between instrumentation data and questionnaire results presented an underestimation of the mean vote, predicting a cooler sensation than the actual one.
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Earth Sciences, Atmospheric Science; particulate matter; temporal variation; urban area of Athens; Greece
Online: 18 December 2016 (11:51:57 CET)
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The main objective of this work is to investigate the temporal variation of PM10 concentrations within the urban area of Athens during the years 2001-2015. For this purpose, the time series of the particulate matter with aerodynamic diameter less than 10μm (PM10) is recorded for a 15-year period (2001-2015) in two different monitoring stations located in the urban area of Athens. The results show a totally different behavior of PM10 concentrations between the Athens city center and the suburban areas. It seems that in the city center the main sources of PM10 are traffic and heating systems especially during the cold period of the year. Furthermore, in the city center a significant seasonal variation was found with high concentrations during the cold period of the year and lower concentrations during the warm period of the year. Moreover, it was found that during the weekends, there is a decrease in PM10 concentrations probably due to the fact that majority of people do not use their vehicles. Finally, for both locations a significant temporal decreasing trend of the mean annual PM10 concentrations was found which indicates that during the last years, there have been improvements towards a better air quality.
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Earth Sciences, Atmospheric Science; climate change; climatic water balance; irrigation; natural snow cover; the DAS indicator project; Saxony-Anhalt; soil moisture content
Online: 7 December 2016 (12:30:40 CET)
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Implementation of the German Climate change Strategy in the Federal State of Saxony-Anhalt is discussed in this paper. It shares the requirement and importance of sustainable development. An overview of strategy, The DAS Indicator System is provided with results of a portion of work being done for the ministry of agriculture by Deutscher Wetterdienst (DWD). Applicability of the indicator system is also shown by evaluation of results for specific indicators from 1961-2015.
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Earth Sciences, Atmospheric Science; ionospheric delay, Kriging spatial interpolation, semivariogram, variance component estimation, CMONOC
Online: 2 December 2016 (18:13:10 CET)
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Ionospheric delay has been a critical issue that limits the accuracy of GNSS precise positioning and navigation for single-frequency users, especially in mid- and low-latitude regions where irregularity of ionosphere is often significant. Kriging spatial interpolation techniques have been recently introduced to model the spatial correlation and variability of ionosphere, which intrinsically assume that the ionosphere field is stochastically stationary but does not take the random observational errors into account. In this paper, by treating the spatial statistical information on ionosphere as prior knowledge and based on TEC semivariogram analysis, we use Kriging techniques to spatially interpolate TEC values. By assuming that the stochastic models of both the ionospheric signals and measurement errors are only known up to some unknown factors, we propose a new Kriging spatial interpolation method with unknown variance components for both the signals of ionosphere and TEC measurements. Variance component estimation has been integrated with Kriging to reconstruct regional ionospherical delay. The method has been applied to data from the Crustal Movement Observation Network of China (CMONOC) and compared with the ordinary Kriging and polynomial interpolations with spherical cap harmonic functions, polynomial functions and low-degree spherical harmonic functions. The results have shown that the interpolation accuracy of the new proposed method is better than the ordinary Kriging and polynomial interpolation by about 1.2 TECU and 0.7 TECU, respectively. The root mean squared error of the proposed new Kriging with variance components is within 1.5 TECU and is smaller than those from other methods under comparison by about 1 TECU. When compared with ionospheric grid points, the mean squared error of the proposed method is within 6 TECU and smaller than Kriging, indicating that the proposed method can produce more accurate ionospheric delays and better estimation accuracy.
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Earth Sciences, Atmospheric Science; Parameterization, climate, Lightning, Atmosphere, Modelling, Thunderstorm, Convection, Forest, fires.
Online: 16 November 2016 (14:50:05 CET)
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We use the third version of the Canadian Local Climate Model as a diagnostic tool to study the climatology of observed CG lightning activity at Maniwaki (latitude: 46,23°N; Longitude: 75,58°W). We examine the dependence between the hourly lightning activity and the related atmospheric variables during the warm season of sixteen years (between 1984 and 2004). The goal of this research is: a) to evaluate the atmospheric static state evolution and its moisture contents for conditions having generated lightning occurrence, b) to develop a CG lightning parameterization, and c) to verify this CG lightning parameterization on other Canadian areas. The freezing level altitude and the precipitable water content are used to estimate the static air instability and its moisture content respectively. These two parameters are served to develop the CG lightning parameterization. A comparison between the observations and simulations CG lightning occurrence and frequency at Maniwaki showed a mean absolute error rate of 27% and 55% respectively. We apply this parameterization at four Canadian regions, distributed from west to east. The simulated CG lightning results are comparable to observed CG lightning at Maniwaki and tested regions. The application of the CG lightning parameterization to the daily data enabled us to find the monthly results. This application represents a preliminary stage for validation this parameterization in regional numerical models in Canada during the historic period.
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Earth Sciences, Atmospheric Science; rainfall; TMPA; CMORPH; Pra basin; satellite-based precipitation; Ghana
Online: 14 November 2016 (08:39:44 CET)
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Satellite-based rainfall estimation products provide a vital alternative source of rainfall data in areas where conventional precipitation measurement is not readily available. In order to facilitate the use of these products there is the need to evaluate their accuracies. This study evaluated the accuracy of three satellite rainfall products; TMPA 3B42RT, TMPA 3B42 and CMORPH in the Pra basin (23,330 km2) of Ghana. The evaluation was through the point-to-pixel method by comparing 0.25°x 0.25° satellite grids to gauged rainfall based on gauge locations and analyzed statistically using correlation coefficient (r), bias and percent bias (pBias) as the performance verification methods. Seven (7) gauge stations with no missing data for the period of 2003-2008 was used in the evaluation. The analysis was based on daily, monthly, annual and seasonal timescales. Our results showed a good correlation between the TMPA products and the gauged data on all timescales considered. The CMORPH on the other hand showed huge overestimation at all gauge locations. The TMPA 3B42 was seen to be the best amongst the three products. The overall rainfall in the basin was well depicted by the TMPA 3B42 and 3B42RT. Although there wasn’t a perfect match between the 3B42RT and 3B42 products and the gauged rainfall, these products can be used to supplement gauged rainfall measurements in the basin and in estimation of rainfall in ungauged basins with similar characteristics.
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Earth Sciences, Atmospheric Science; satellite; rainfall; estimates; rain gauge; uncertainties; topography; seasonality; East Africa
Online: 2 November 2016 (10:25:04 CET)
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Accurate and consistent rainfall observations are vital for climatological studies in support of better planning and decision making. However, estimation of accurate spatial rainfall is limited by sparse rain gauge distributions. Satellite rainfall products can thus potentially play a role in spatial rainfall estimation but their skill and uncertainties need to be under-stood across spatial-time scales. This study aimed at assessing the temporal and spatial performance of seven satellite products (TARCAT (Tropical Applications of Meteorology using SATellite and ground-based observations (TAMSAT) African Rainfall Climatology And Time series), Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation with Station data (CHIRPS), Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM-3B43), Climate Prediction Center (CPC) Morphing (CMORPH), the Precipitation Estimation from Remotely Sensed Information using Artificial Neural Networks- Climate Data Record (PERSIANN-CDR), CPC Merged Analysis of Precipitation (CMAP) and Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) using gridded (0.05o) rainfall data over East Africa for 15 years(1998-2012). The products’ error distributions were qualitatively compared with large scale horizontal winds (850 mb) and elevation patterns with respect to corresponding rain gauge data for each month during the ‘long’ (March-May) and ‘short’ (October-December) rainfall seasons. For validation only rainfall means extracted from 284 rain gauge stations were used, from which qualitative analysis using continuous statistics of Root Mean Squared Difference, Standard deviations, Correlations, coefficient of determinations (from scatter plots) were used to evaluate the products’ performance. Results revealed rainfall variability dependence on wind flows and modulated by topographic influences. The products’ errors showed seasonality and dependent on rainfall intensity and topography. Single sensor and coarse resolution products showed lowest performance on high ground areas. All the products showed low skills in retrieving rainfall during ‘short’ rainfall season when orographic processes were dominant. CHIRPS, CMORPH and TRMM performed well, with TRMM showing the best performance in both seasons. There is need to reduce products’ errors before applications.
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Earth Sciences, Atmospheric Science; millimeter-wavelength cloud radar; attenuation correction; dual-radar; data fusion
Online: 1 November 2016 (11:05:18 CET)
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In order to correct attenuated millimeter-wavelength (Ka-band) radar data and address the problem of instability, an attenuation correction methodology (attenuation correction with variation trend constraint; VTC) was developed. Using synchronous observation conditions and multi-band radars, the VTC method adopts the variation trends of reflectivity in X-band radar data captured with wavelet transform as a constraint to adjust reflectivity factors of millimeter-wavelength radar. The correction was evaluated by comparing reflectivities obtained by millimeter-wavelength cloud radar and X-band weather radar. Experiments showed that attenuation was a major contributory factor in the different reflectivities of the two radars when relatively intense echoes exist, and the attenuation correction developed in this study significantly improved data quality for millimeter-wavelength radar. Reflectivity differences between the two radars were reduced and reflectivity correlations were enhanced. Errors caused by attenuation were eliminated, while variation details in the reflectivity factors were retained. The VTC method is superior to the bin-by-bin method in terms of correction amplitude and can be used for attenuation correction of shorter wavelength radar assisted by longer wavelength radar data.
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Earth Sciences, Atmospheric Science; rainfall; rain gauge; kriging; trend detection
Online: 31 October 2016 (02:37:36 CET)
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Precipitation during 2001-2016 over the northern and central part of Tuscany was studied in order to characterize the rainfall regime. The dataset consisted of hourly cumulative rainfall series recorded by a network of 801 rain gauges. The territory was divided into 30x30 km square areas, the annual, seasonal and daily Average Cumulative Rainfall (ACR) in all areas was estimated along with its uncertainty. The trend analysis of ACR time series was performed by means of the Mann-Kendall test. Four climatic zones were identified: the north-western was the rainiest, followed by the north-eastern, north-central and south-central. An overall increase in precipitation was identified, more intense in the north-west, and determined mostly by the increase in winter precipitation. On the entire territory, the ACR, number of rainy days, mean precipitation intensity and sum of daily ACR in four intensity groups were evaluated at annual and seasonal scale. The main result was a magnitude of the ACR trend evaluated as 35 mm/year, due mainly to an increase in light and extreme precipitations. This result is in contrast with the decreasing rainfall detected in the past decades.
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Earth Sciences, Atmospheric Science; coastal; experiment; lidar; near-shore; offshore; wind resources
Online: 18 October 2016 (09:51:46 CEST)
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We present a comprehensive database of near-shore wind observations that were carried out during the experimental campaign of the RUNE project. RUNE aims at reducing the uncertainty of the near-shore wind resource estimates from model outputs by using lidar, ocean, and satellite observations. Here we concentrate in describing the lidar measurements. The campaign was conducted from November 2015 to February 2016 at the west coast of Denmark and comprises measurements from eight lidars, an ocean buoy and three types of satellites. The wind speed was estimated based on measurements from a scanning lidar performing PPIs, two scanning lidars performing dual synchronized scans, and five vertical profiling lidars, of which one was operating offshore on a floating platform. The availability of measurements is highest for the profiling lidars, followed by the lidar performing PPIs, those peforming the dual setup, and the lidar buoy. Analysis of the lidar measurements reveals good agreement between the estimated 10-m wind speeds, although the instruments used different scanning strategies and measured different volumes in the atmosphere. The campaign is characterized by strong westerlies with occasional storms.
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Earth Sciences, Atmospheric Science; AO; SAO; TO; amplitude; phase
Online: 6 October 2016 (10:52:44 CEST)
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The properties of the annual, semiannual and triennial oscillations (AO, SAO and TO) in the middle atmosphere have been investigated using the TIMED/SABER temperature data. The Lomb-Scargle and wavelet spectra were used to determine the dominant oscillations in the background temperature field. The AO is prominent at the mid-latitudes. The AO amplitudes present an asymmetry between the two Hemispheres, being larger in the mesosphere than in the stratosphere. The SAO dominates the tropical regions, with three amplitude maxima at altitudes of 45, 75, and 85 km. The SAOs in the upper mesosphere (75 km) are out of phase with those in the mesopause (85 km) in the tropical regions, which can generate an enhancement of 11 K at each equinox, contributing to the lower mesospheric inversion layer. The TO is significant in the tropical region, with amplitude being maximum at 35, 45 and 85 km. Result shows that there may be potential interaction by the TO with SAO at 85km at the equator. The relation between ENSO and TO has also been discussed. The ENSO signal may modulate the amplitude of the TO, mainly in the lower stratosphere. The real origin of the TO may lie in the wave-mean-flow interaction.
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Earth Sciences, Atmospheric Science; dry intrusion; Stratosphere-troposphere exchange; mid-latitude; satellite
Online: 18 September 2016 (12:27:56 CEST)
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Dry intrusion is an important mid-latitude atmosphere phenomenon within the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere. It is always found to be related to the cyclogenesis, rainstorm, as well as convection generation and precipitation enhancement. Since the atmosphere environment for any of these above-mentioned weather is terribly complicated, those preexisting popular schemes which takes no account of water vapor may not suitable for detecting the dry intrusion related to these weathers. With regard to the merits and demerits of the current preexisting schemes, a new scheme based on Fengyun-2E geo-stationary satellite data is presented in this study to detect the atmospheric dry intrusion. The scheme is set up based on the statistical relationship between water vapor at high level troposphere, the general moist potential vorticity, ozone concentration and upper-level jet. After using the total amount of ozone and ozone profile operational products retrieved by Fengyun-3 Polar Orbiting Meteorological Satellites and the potential vorticity calculated by ECMWF Interim data for validation, this scheme is applied to analyze two typical middle-latitude weather processes. One is the famous Beijing extreme rainfall of 21 July 2012 and the other is a hailstorm occurred on the eastern China during March 19, 2014. A good application effect in both cases suggests that our new method of detecting dry intrusion is feasible and can be helpful in middle-latitude disastrous weather monitoring and forecasting.
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Earth Sciences, Atmospheric Science; land surface temperature; thermal infrared; calibration; generalized split-window; mono-window; database; radiative transfer
Online: 16 September 2016 (15:12:09 CEST)
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Land Surface Temperature (LST) is routinely retrieved from remote sensing instruments using semi-empirical relationships between top of atmosphere (TOA) radiances and LST, using ancillary data such as total column water vapor or emissivity. These algorithms are calibrated using a set of forward radiative transfer simulations that return the TOA radiances given the LST and the thermodynamic profiles. The simulations are done in order to cover a wide range of surface and atmospheric conditions and viewing geometries. This work analyses calibration strategies, considering some of the most critical factors that need to be taken into account when building a calibration dataset, covering the full dynamic range of relevant variables. A sensitivity analysis of split-windows and single channel algorithms revealed that selecting a set of atmospheric profiles that spans the full range of surface temperatures and total column water vapor combinations that are physically possible seems beneficial for the quality of the regression model. However, the calibration is extremely sensitive to the low-level structure of the atmosphere indicating that the presence of atmospheric boundary layer features such as temperature inversions or strong vertical gradients of thermodynamic properties may affect LST retrievals in a non-trivial way. This article describes the criteria established in the EUMETSAT Land Surface Analysis – Satellite Application Facility to calibrate its LST algorithms applied both for current and forthcoming sensors.
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Earth Sciences, Atmospheric Science; FY-3C/MWHTS; linear regression correction; neural networks correction; one-dimensional variational algorithm; atmospheric temperature and humidity profiles
Online: 19 August 2016 (11:22:31 CEST)
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The Microwave Humidity and Temperature sounder (MWHTS) on board the Fengyun (FY)-3C satellite measure the outgoing radiance form the Earth surface and atmospheric constituents. MWHTS makes measurements in the isolated oxygen absorption line near 118 GHz and the vicinity of strong water vapor line around 183 GHz, can provide fine vertical distribution structure of both atmospheric humidity and temperature. However, in order to obtain the accurate soundings of humidity and temperature by the physical retrieval method, bias between the observed radiance and those simulated by radiative transfer model from the background or first guess profiles must be correct. In this study, two bias correction methods are developed through the correlation analysis between MWHTS measurements and air mass identified by the first guess profiles of the physical inversion, one is the linear regression correction (LRC) and the other is neural networks correction (NNC), representing the linear and nonlinear nature between MWHTS measurements and air mass, respectively. Both correction methods have been applied to MWHTS observed brightness temperatures over the geographic area (180° W-180° E, 60° S-60° N). The corrected results are evaluated by the probability density function of the difference between corrected observations and simulated values and the root mean square error (RMSE) with respect to simulated observations. The numerical results show that the NNC method perform better, especially in MWHTS channels 1 and 7-9 whose peak weight function heights are close to the surface. In order to assess the effects of bias correction methods proposed in this study on the retrieval accuracy, a one-dimensional variational system was built and applied to the MWHTS uncorrected and corrected brightness temperatures to estimated atmospheric temperature and humidity profiles, The retrieval results show that the NNC has better performance which is to be expected. An indication of the stability and robustness of NNC method is given which suggests that the NNC method has promising application perspectives in the physical retrieval.