The Sentinel Application Platform (SNAP) architecture facilitates Earth Observation data processing (http://step.esa.int/main/toolboxes/snap/). In this work we present results from a new Snow Processor for SNAP. We also describe physical principles behind the developed snow property retrieval technique based on the analysis of Ocean and Land Colour Instrument (OLCI) onboard Sentinel-3A/B measurements over clean and polluted snow fields. Using OLCI spectral reflectance measurements in the range 400-1020nm, we derive important snow properties such as spectral and broadband albedo, snow specific surface area, snow extent and grain size on the spatial grid of 300m. The algorithm also incorporates cloud screening and atmospheric correction procedures over snow surfaces. We present validation results using ground measurements from Antarctica, the Greenland ice sheet and the French Alps. We find the spectral albedo retrieved with accuracy of better than 3% on average, making our retrievals sufficient for a variety of applications. Broadband albedo is retrieved with the average accuracy of about 5% over snow. Therefore, the uncertainties of satellite retrievals are close to experimental errors of ground measurements. The retrieved surface grain size shows good agreement with ground observations. Snow specific surface area observations are also consistent with our OLCI retrievals. We present snow albedo and grain size mapping over the inland ice sheet of Greenland for areas including dry snow, melted/melting snow and impurity rich bare ice. The algorithm can be applied to OLCI Sentinel-3 measurements providing an opportunity for creation of long – term snow property records essential for climate monitoring and data assimilation studies - especially in the Arctic region, where we face rapid environmental changes including reduction of snow/ice extent and, therefore, planetary albedo.

This manuscript examines from the diurnal convection cycle (CDC) to the interdecadal variability in the region of the Peruvian Altiplano (RAP). Currently, estimating precipitation using satellites is an alternative which can be used to study the spatio-temporal evolution of precipitation systems. Herein CPC data Morphing technique - CMORPH (Joyce et al, 2004) was used between 2002 and 2014 to analyze the CDC in RAP. The CMOPRH data were compared with rainfall data series measured by rain gauges of meteorological stations (EMS) in the RAP. The results indicate that the CDC shows high variability in the Titicaca Basin and is associated with patterns of lake breeze (day), land breeze (night) and mountain - valley circulation. The CDC starts at 1800 HL (local time) in the northern region of Lake Titicaca, lasting between 2 h and 6 h, and most of 2000 HL. The CDC over the dry surface (ST) of Titicaca Basin starts early at around 1200 HL, lasting 4 h to 7 h, and maximum at 1800 HL.

The increasing spatial and spectral resolution of hyperspectral imagers yields detailed spectroscopy measurements from both space-based and airborne platforms. Machine learning algorithms have achieved state-of-the-art material classification performance on benchmark hyperspectral data sets; however, these techniques often do not consider varying atmospheric conditions experienced in a real-world detection scenario. To reduce the impact of atmospheric effects in the at-sensor signal, atmospheric compensation must be performed. Radiative Transfer (RT) modeling can generate high-fidelity atmospheric estimates at detailed spectral resolutions, but is often too time-consuming for real-time detection scenarios. This research utilizes machine learning methods to perform dimension reduction on the transmittance, upwelling radiance, and downwelling radiance (TUD) data to create high accuracy atmospheric estimates with lower computational cost than RT modeling. The utility of this approach is investigated using the instrument line shape for the Mako long-wave infrared hyperspectral sensor. This study employs physics-based metrics and loss functions to identify promising dimension reduction techniques. As a result, TUD vectors can be produced in real-time allowing for atmospheric compensation across diverse remote sensing scenarios.

Among other applications, radar-rainfall (RR) and QPE (Quantitative Precipitation Estimation) based on radar reflectivity, dual polarization variables, and multi-sensor information, provide important information for land surface hydrology, such as flood forecasting. Therefore, we developed a flood alert system using rainfall-runoff model forced with RR and QPE, and tipping-bucket observations to forecast river water levels (using rating-curves). In this study, we used an hourly dataset from an S-Band dual-polarimetric radar with two tropical R(Z) relations based distrometer data, a polarimetric R(Z,ZDR) algorithm from the literature and a multi-sensor approach using radar, satellite and rain gauge. Two hydrological models were used and calibrated using observed discharge time-series. Although our previous studies indicated accurate RR-based simulations, in some cases floods were not detected when using catchment-lumped rainfall derived from multi-sensor QPE. In this study, we advance further in this subject using improved R(Z,ZDR) relations and QPE for the period of 2016-2017 and flood event-based rainfall-runoff calibration. Thus, we focused on the development (and timing) of floods in the Marrecas River can be complex and strongly related to storms spatiotemporal distribution. To explore this aspect, we also perform a first analysis in using RR in rainfall-runoff model with a nested catchment discretization.

Residential coal combustion is one of the most significant sources of carbonaceous aerosols in the Highveld region of South Africa, significantly affecting the local and regional climate. In this study, we investigated single coal-burning particles emitted when using different fire-ignition techniques (top-lit up-draft vs bottom-lit up-draft) and air ventilation rates (defined by the number of air holes above and below the fire grate) in selected informal braziers. Aerosol samples were collected on nucleopore filters at the Sustainable Energy Technology and Research Centre Laboratory, University of Johannesburg. Individual particles (~700) were investigated using a scanning electron microscope equipped with energy-dispersive X-ray spectroscopy (EDS). Two distinct forms of spherical organic particles (SOPs) were identified, one less oxidized than the other. The particles were further classified into "electronically" dark and bright. EDS analysis showed that 70% of the dark spherical organic particles had higher (~60%) relative oxygen content than in the bright SOPs. We quantified the morphology of spherical organic particles and classified them into four categories: ~50% are bare single particles; ~35% particles are aggregated and form diffusion accretion chains; 10% have inclusions, and 5% are deformed due to impaction on filter material during sampling. We conclude that there are two distinct kinds of coal burning spherical organic particles and that dark SOPs are less volatile than bright SOPs. We also show that these spherical organic particles are similar in nature and characteristics to tar balls observed in biomass combustion and that they have the potential to absorb sunlight thereby affecting the earth’s radiative budget and climate. This study provides insights into the mixing states, morphology, and possible formation mechanisms of these organic particles from residential coal combustion in informal stoves.

The assimilation of Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity (SMOS) data into the ECMWF (European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts) H-TESSEL (Hydrology revised - Tiled ECMWF Scheme for Surface Exchanges over Land) model is presented. SMOS soil moisture (SM) estimates have been produced specifically by training a neural network with SMOS brightness temperatures as input and H-TESSEL model SM simulations as reference. This can help the assimilation of SMOS information in several ways: (1) the neural network soil moisture (NNSM) data have a similar climatology to the model, (2) no global bias is present with respect to the model even if regional differences can exist. Experiments performing joint data assimilation (DA) of NNSM, 2 metre air temperature and relative humidity or NNSM-only DA are discussed. The resulting SM was evaluated against a large number of in situ measurements of SM obtaining similar results to those of the model with no assimilation, even if significant differences were found from site to site. In addition, atmospheric forecasts initialized with H-TESSEL runs (without DA) or with the analysed SM were compared to measure of the impact of the satellite information. Although, NNSM DA has an overall neutral impact in the forecast in the Tropics, a significant positive impact was found in other areas and periods, especially in regions with limited in situ information. The joint NNSM, T2m and RH2m DA improves the forecast for all the seasons in the Southern Hemisphere. The impact is mostly due to T2m and RH2m, but SMOS NN DA alone also improves the forecast in July- September. In the Northern Hemisphere, the joint NNSM, T2m and RH2m DA improves the forecast in April-September, while NNSM alone has a significant positive effect in July-September. Furthermore, forecasting skill maps show that SMOS NNSM improves the forecast in North America and in Northern Asia for up to 72 hours lead time.

A convenient practical model for accurately estimating the total entropy (ΣSi) of atmospheric gases based on physical action is proposed. This realistic approach is fully consistent with statistical mechanics, but reinterprets its partition functions as measures of translational, rotational and vibrational action or quantum states, to estimate the entropy. With all kinds of molecular action expressed as logarithmic functions, the total heat required for warming a chemical system from 0o K (ΣSiT) to a given temperature and pressure can be computed, yielding results identical with published experimental third law values of entropy. All thermodynamic properties of gases including entropy, enthalpy, Gibbs energy and Helmholtz energy are directly estimated using simple algorithms based on simple molecular and physical properties, without resource to tables of standard values; both free energies are measures of quantum field states and of minimal statistical degeneracy, decreasing with temperature and declining density. We propose that this more realistic approach has heuristic value for thermodynamic computation of atmospheric profiles, based on steady state heat flows equilibrating with gravity. Potentially, this application of an action principle can provide better understanding of emergent properties of many natural or evolving complex systems, including modelling of predictions for global warming.

Stretching along the border of North Dakota and Minnesota, The Red River Valley (RRV) of the North has the highest frequency of reported blizzards within the contiguous United States. Despite the numerous impacts these events have, few systematic studies exist discussing the meteorological properties of blizzards. As a result, forecasting these events and lesser blowing snow events is an ongoing forecast challenge. This study presents a climatology of atmospheric patterns associated with RRV blizzards for the winter seasons of 1979-1980 to 2017-2018. Patterns were identified using subjective and objective techniques using meteorological fields from the North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR). The RRV experiences on average, 2.6 events per year. Blizzard frequency is bimodal with peaks occurring in December and March. The events can largely be typed into four meteorological categories dependent on the forcing that drives the blizzard: Alberta Clippers, Arctic Fronts, Colorado Lows, and Hybrids. Objective classification of these blizzards using a competitive neural network known as the Self-Organizing Map (SOM) demonstrates that gross segregation of the events can be achieved with a small (8-class) map. This implies that objective analysis techniques can be used to identify these events in weather and climate model output that may aid future forecasting and risk assessment projects.

Relationships between drought and fire danger indices are examined to 1) incorporate fire risk information into the National Integrated Drought Information System California-Nevada Drought Early Warning System and 2) provide a baseline analysis for application of drought indices into a fire risk management framework. We analyzed four drought indices that incorporate precipitation and evaporative demand (E₀) and three fire indices that reflect fuel moisture and potential fire intensity. Seasonally averaged fire danger indices were most strongly correlated to multi-scalar drought indices that use E₀ (the Evaporative Demand Drought Index [EDDI] and Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index [SPEI]) at approximately annual time scales that reflect buildup of antecedent drought conditions. Results indicate that EDDI and SPEI can inform seasonal fire potential outlooks at the beginning of summer. An E₀ decomposition case study of conditions prior to the Tubbs Fire in Northern California indicate high E₀ (97th percentile) driven predominantly by low humidity signaled increased fire potential several days before the start of the fire. Initial use of EDDI by fire management groups during summer and fall 2018 highlights several value-added applications, including seasonal fire potential outlooks, funding fire severity level requests, and assessing set-up conditions prior to large, explosive fire cases.

We evaluate the complexity of Colombian climate from extreme behavior of gauge temperature and precipitation, using the the novel Tsallis' non-extensive entropy principle based on physical information through the q-index. We find the spatial structure of non additive universal categories (q-index) and compare with some complex systems with the potential to have some degree of dynamical affinity. Our results evidence the great dynamical variability of regional climate expressed in the large range of values of $q$-index, and the high degree of non-extensitivity for both temperature and precipitation.

Relationships between drought and fire danger indices are examined to 1) incorporate fire risk information into the National Integrated Drought Information System California-Nevada Drought Early Warning System and 2) provide a baseline analysis for application of drought indices into a fire risk management framework. We analyzed four drought indices that incorporate precipitation and evaporative demand (E₀) and three fire indices that reflect fuel moisture and potential fire intensity. Seasonally averaged fire danger indices were most strongly correlated to multi-scalar drought indices that use E₀ (the Evaporative Demand Drought Index [EDDI] and Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index [SPEI]) at approximately annual time scales that reflect buildup of antecedent drought conditions. Results indicate that EDDI and SPEI can inform seasonal fire potential outlooks at the beginning of summer. An E₀ decomposition case study of conditions prior to the Tubbs Fire in Northern California indicate high E₀ (97th percentile) driven predominantly by low humidity signaled increased fire potential several days before the start of the fire. Initial use of EDDI by fire management groups during summer and fall 2018 highlights several value-added applications, including seasonal fire potential outlooks, funding fire severity level requests, and assessing set-up conditions prior to large, explosive fire cases.

Upper Blue Nile basin (UBNB) is the water tower of Ethiopia and downstream countries. It contributes significant moistures to the surrounding atmosphere. However, the contribution of the moisture from the basin to the precipitation in the area is not well documented. Therefore, this paper is aimed at seasonal variation of upper Blue Nile basin moisture budget and the global moistures in the role of temporal and spatial precipitation variability. To this end, we used European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecast (ECMWF) data from 1979-2017. The UBNB moisture contributed precipitation in the central parts of the study area during the summer season, while in spring; it contributed in southern part of the study area. Northwest part of the study area got precipitation from the basin moistures during autumn season. The recycling ratios for four seasons (summer, autumn, spring and winter) were 9.70%, 16.33%, 19.01%, and 35.30% respectively. The maximum amount of precipitation is extracted from the local moistures during winter season. The annual average value of recycling ratio was found 20.11%. Hence, we concluded that UBNB moisture budget had lesser contribution of precipitation over the study area. It rather contributed a significant precipitation to the neighboring countries such as Egypt and Sudan. Further studies on moisture budget are required to explain this phenomenon in the context of Ethiopia.

Upper Blue Nile basin (UBNB) is the water tower of Ethiopia and downstream countries. It contributes significant moistures to the surrounding atmosphere. However, the contribution of the moisture from the basin to the precipitation in the area is not well documented. Therefore, this paper is aimed at seasonal variation of upper Blue Nile basin moisture budget and the global moistures in the role of temporal and spatial precipitation variability. To this end, we used European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecast (ECMWF) data from 1979-2017. The UBNB moisture contributed precipitation in the central parts of the study area during the summer season, while in spring; it contributed in southern part of the study area. Northwest part of the study area got precipitation from the basin moistures during autumn season. The recycling ratios for four seasons (summer, autumn, spring and winter) were 9.70%, 16.33%, 19.01%, and 35.30% respectively. The maximum amount of precipitation is extracted from the local moistures during winter season. The annual average value of recycling ratio was found 20.11%. Hence, we concluded that UBNB moisture budget had lesser contribution of precipitation over the study area. It rather contributed a significant precipitation to the neighboring countries such as Egypt and Sudan. Further studies on moisture budget are required to explain this phenomenon in the context of Ethiopia.

The Convective Rainfall Rate from Cloud Physical Properties (CRPh) for Meteosat Second Generation Satellites is a day-only precipitation algorithm developed at the Spanish Meteorological Agency (AEMET) for EUMETSAT’ Satellite Application Facility in support to Nowcasting and Very Short Range Forecasting (NWC SAF). It is therefore mainly intended to provide input for monitoring and near-real-time forecasts for the next few hours. This paper critically discusses the theoretical basis of the algorithm with special emphasis in the empirical values and assumptions in the microphysics of precipitation and compares the performances of the CRPh with its antecessor, the Convective Rainfall Rate algorithm (CRR), using an object-based method. The analyses show that AEMET’s CRPh is physically consistent and that outperforms the CRR. The applicability of the algorithm for nowcasting and the challenges to evolve the product to an all-day algorithm are also presented.

The main objective of this study is to search better prediction result of rainy seasonal rainfall (15 June-15 August). A correlation between rainfall of Bengali rainy seasons at Rangpur, Dhaka, Barisal and Sylhet and global sea surface temperature (SST) of different areas of the world was studied by using the both data of 1975- 2008 years with the help of the Climate Predictability Tool (CPT) to find more positive correlated SST with observed rainfall and use as predictor for giving the prediction of the year 2009. Using SST of one month before rainy season as predictor, the positive deviation of predicted rainfall from observed rainfall was 1.34 mm/day at Sylhet and 0.9 mm/day at Dhaka. The negative deviation of mean rainfall was 1.16 mm/day at Rangpur and 1.10 mm/day at Barisal. Again, using of starting one month SST of rainy season as predictor, positive deviation of predicted rainfall from observed rainfall was 4.03 mm/day at Sylhet. The positive deviation of daily mean rainfall was found 6.58 mm/day at Dhaka and 6.23 mm/day over southern Bangladesh. The study reveals that sea surface temperature (SST) of one month before rainy season was better predictor than SST of starting month of rainy season.

Electric and/or magnetic fields are generated by stationary charges, uniformly moving charges and accelerating charges. These field components are described in the literature as static fields, velocity fields (or generalized Coulomb field) and radiation fields (or acceleration fields), respectively. In the literature, the electromagnetic fields generated by lightning return strokes are presented using the field components associated with short dipoles and in this description the one to one association of the electromagnetic field terms with the physical process that gives rise to them is lost. In this paper, we will derive expressions for the electromagnetic fields using field equations associated with accelerating (and moving) charges and separate the resulting fields into static, velocity and radiation fields. The results illustrates how the radiation fields emanating from the lightning channel give rise to field terms varying as inverse of distance and distance squired, the velocity fields generating field terms varying as inverse of distance squired and the static fields generating fields components varying as inverse of distance squired and distance cube. These field components depend explicitly on the speed of propagation of the current pulse. However, the total field does not depend explicitly on the speed of propagation of the current pulse. It is shown that these field components can be combined to generate the field components pertinent to the dipole technique. However, in this conversion process the connection of the field components to the physical process taking place at the source that generate these fields (i.e. static charges, uniformly moving charges and accelerating charges) is lost.    

We propose a new technique to prepare statistically-robust benchmarking data for evaluating chemical transport model meteorology and air quality parameters within the urban boundary layer. The approach employs atmospheric class-typing, using nocturnal radon measurements to assign atmospheric mixing classes, and can be applied temporally (across the diurnal cycle), or spatially (to create angular distributions of pollutants as a top-down constraint on emissions inventories). In this study only a short (<1-month) campaign is used, but grouping of the relative mixing classes based on nocturnal mean radon concentrations can be adjusted according to dataset length (i.e., number of days per category), or desired range of within-class variability. Calculating hourly distributions of observed and simulated values across diurnal composites of each class-type helps to: (i) bridge the gap between scales of simulation and observation, (ii) represent the variability associated with spatial and temporal heterogeneity of sources and meteorology without being confused by it, and (iii) provide an objective way to group results over whole diurnal cycles that separates ‘natural complicating factors’ (synoptic non-stationarity, rainfall, mesoscale motions, extreme stability, etc.) from problems related to parameterizations, or between-model differences. We demonstrate the utility of this technique using output from a suite of seven contemporary regional forecast and chemical transport models. Meteorological model skill varied across the diurnal cycle for all models, with an additional dependence on the atmospheric mixing class that varied between models. From an air quality perspective, model skill regarding the duration and magnitude of morning and evening “rush hour” pollution events varied strongly as a function of mixing class. Model skill was typically the lowest when public exposure would have been the highest, which has important implications for assessing potential health risks in new and rapidly evolving urban regions, and also for prioritizing the areas of model improvement for future applications.

Earth atmosphere is almost opaque in the infrared: about 374 W/m² is absorbed by the atmosphere out of 396 W/m² surface upward longwave radiation, and only about 22 W/m² leaves the system unabsorbed in the atmospheric window. This makes rise to the idea to approximate the annual global mean energy flow system from a simple idealized greenhouse model, where the surface is surrounded by a single-layer shortwave (SW) transparent, longwave (LW) opaque, non-turbulent atmosphere. The energy flows in this geometry can be described by elementary arithmetic relationships. Starting from this model, the realistic Earth’s atmosphere can be achieved by introducing partial atmospheric SW opacity, partial atmospheric LW transparency and turbulent fluxes during the course of the deduction. The resulted global mean energy flow system is then compared to several data sets such as satellite observations from the CERES mission; estimates using direct surface observations and climate models; global energy and water cycle assessments; and independent detailed clear-sky radiative transfer computations. We find that the deduction from this idealized model approximates the real values in Earth energy budget with reasonable accuracy: the deduced fluxes and the observed ones are consistent within the acknowledged error of observations; while fundamental features of the initial geometry like special ratios and definite relationships between the fluxes are preserved.

This paper contributes to the understating of tornadoes in South Africa using case study analysis. In South Africa tornadoes are the recurring phenomenon (the climatology) but so far they have received less attention. Damages from storms itself (tornadoes inclusive) are significant in South Africa relative to other weather-related disasters for example floods, heat waves, and droughts. For their understanding, a case study approach was adopted in the current study. Data were in courtesy of the following, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), National Centers for Environmental Predictions (NCEP), Eumetsat Germany, and South African Weather Service (SAWS). The aim of the study was to provide an overview of the occurrence of tornadoes in South Africa using a Klerksdorp tornado, which occurred on March 4, 2007, Northwest Province in South Africa. From the case study analysis, the tornado was associated with the cold front and cut-off low (both are extratropical circulation) which were the dominant weather systems of the day. Therefore we conclude that, a case study approach may be the best way to study events of these nature for a more informed decision, for example, issuing an early warning system.  In future, case studies, for example, involving interaction between extratropical and tropical circulation will also be an interesting study.

This paper contributes to the understating of tornadoes in South Africa using case study analysis. In South Africa tornadoes are the recurring phenomenon (the climatology) but they have received less attention. Damages from storms itself (tornadoes inclusive) are significant in South Africa relative to other weather-related disasters for example floods, heat waves, and droughts. Case study approach was adopted in the current study. Data were in the courtesy of the following, National Oceanic and Administration (NOOA), National Centers for Environmental Protections (NCEP), Eumetsat, and South African weather Service. The aim of the study was to provide an overview of the occurrence of tornadoes in South Africa using a case study. From the case study analysis, the tornadoes at Klerksdorp on March 4, 2007, was associated with the cold frontal systems and the cut-ff low (extratropical circulation) which were the dominant weather systems of the day. Case study approach may be the best way to study events of these nature for a more informed decision, for example, issuing an early warning system.  Case studies, for example, involving interaction between extratropical and tropical circulation may be also more informative.

Understanding the distribution in drought and floods plays an important role in disaster risk management. The present study aims to explore the trends in the standardized precipitation index and extreme precipitation days in China, as well as to estimate the economic losses they cause. We found that in the Northeast China, northern of North China and northeast of Northwest China were severely affected by drought disasters (average damaged areas were 6.44 million hectares) and the most severe drought trend was located in West China. However, in the north of East China and Central China, the northeastern of the Southwest China was severely affected by flood disasters (average damaged areas were 3.97 million hectares) and the extreme precipitation trend is increasing in the northeastern of the Southwest China. In the Yangtze River basin, there were increasing trends in terms of drought and extreme precipitation, especially in the northeastern of the Southwest China, where accompanied by severe disaster losses. By combining the trends in drought and extreme precipitation days with the distribution of damaged areas, we found that the increasing trend in droughts shifted gradually from north to south, especially in the Southwest China, and the increasing trend in extreme precipitation gradually shifted from south to north.

Thunderstorm electrification has been studied for hundreds of years. Several mechanisms have been proposed to elucidate the electrification, including convective charging, inductive precipitation charging, and ice crystal-graupel collision charging. Field observations and model studies have demonstrated the vital roles that graupel and ice crystals play in the electrification, but the mechanism of the collision charging is still unclear. The fundamental essence of relative growth rate theory used for explaining the tripole charge structure in thunderclouds also needs a further exploration. We analyze the processes of ice crystal-graupel collision charging from charge migration inside hydrometeors to charge separation between two hydrometeors. The driving effects of temperature gradient and chemical potential gradient in charge migration are clarified, as well as the applicability of the relative growth rate theory, thermoelectric effect and surface tension gradient in different humidities. Based on the understanding from these electrification mechanisms, we propose that the essence of charge separation is driven by non-thermal equilibrium, and future studies on thunderstorm electrification should focus on the dynamical non-thermal equilibrium of cloud particles.

Analysis of the hourly Canadian Prairie data for the past 60 years has transformed our quantitative understanding of land-atmosphere-cloud coupling. The key reason is that trained observers made hourly estimates of opaque cloud fraction that obscures the sun, moon or stars, following the same protocol for 60 years at all stations. These 24 daily estimates of opaque cloud data are of sufficient quality that they can be calibrated against Baseline Surface Radiation Network data to give the climatology of the daily short-wave, longwave and total cloud forcing (SWCF, LWCF and CF). This key radiative forcing has not been available previously for climate datasets. Net cloud radiative forcing reverses sign from negative in the warm season to positive in the cold season, when reflective snow reduces the negative SWCF below the positive LWCF. This in turn leads to a large climate discontinuity with snow cover, with a systematic cooling of 10°C or more with snow cover. In addition, snow cover transforms the coupling between cloud cover and the diurnal range of temperature. In the warm season, maximum temperature increases with decreasing cloud, while minimum temperature barely changes; while in the cold season with snow cover, maximum temperature decreases with decreasing cloud and minimum temperature decreases even more. In the warm season, the diurnal ranges of temperature, relative humidity, equivalent potential temperature and the pressure height of the lifting condensation level are all tightly coupled to opaque cloud cover. Given over 600 station-years of hourly data, we are able to extract, perhaps for the first time, the coupling between cloud forcing and the warm season imbalance of the diurnal cycle; which changes monotonically from a warming and drying under clear skies to a cooling and moistening under cloudy skies with precipitation. Because we have the daily cloud radiative forci, which is large, we are able to show that the memory of water storage anomalies, from precipitation and the snowpack, goes back many months. The spring climatology shows the memory of snowfall back through the entire winter, and the memory in summer goes back to the months of snowmelt. Lagged precipitation anomalies modify the thermodynamic coupling of the diurnal cycle to the cloud forcing, and shift the diurnal cycle of mixing ratio which has a double peak. The seasonal extraction of the surface total water storage is a large damping of the interannual variability of precipitation anomalies in the growing season. The large land-use change from summer fallow to intensive cropping, which peaked in the early 1990s, has led to a coupled climate response that has cooled and moistened the growing season, lowering cloud-base, increasing equivalent potential temperature, and increasing precipitation. We show a simplified energy balance of the Prairies during the growing season and its dependence on reflective cloud.

Mixing layer height (MLH) is a crucial parameter for air quality modelling that is still not routinely measured. Common methods for MLH determination use atmospheric profiles recorded by radiosonde but they suffer from course temporal resolution since balloon launching is only twice a day. Recently cheap ceilometers are gaining popularity in the retrieval of MLH diurnal evolution based on aerosol profiles. This study presents a comparison of a proprietary (Jenoptik) and a free available (STRAT) algorithms to retrieve MLH diurnal cycle. The comparison is accomplished in summer season over urban area and radiosonde data is used to estimate MLHs according to parcel, lapse rate, and Richardson methods (the last algorithm is used as a reference in the study) in addition. It was found that STRAT and Jenoptik give lower MLH than radiosonde with an underestimation of about 150m and 650m respectively. Additionally, STRAT showed reasonable performance in tracking of MLH diurnal evolution. Daily MLH maximum of about 2000m was found in the late afternoon (18-19 LT). In contrast, Jenoptik algorithm showed more weaknesses, mainly attributed to its real-time operation and independent processing of a single profile. At night and during morning transition period, both lidar-based methods showed difficulties as MLH was often in the ceilometer’s incomplete overlapping zone so residual or advected aerosol layers aloft were misleadingly reported as mixing layer (ML).

For water-stressed regions like Iran improving the effectiveness and productivity of agricultural water-use is of utmost importance due to climate change and unsustainable demands. Therefore, a hydro-economic model has been developed here for the Zarrine River Basin with the central concept of that demands are value-sensitive functions, where quantities of water-uses at different locations and times have a changeable economic benefits. To do this, the potential crop yields and the surface and groundwater resources, especially Boukan Dam inflow are simulated using the hydrologic model, SWAT, based on predicted climatic scenarios i.e. quantile mapping-downscaled projections. Then, to allocate the agricultural water based on the agro- economic crop water productivity (AEWP) of crops, a basin-wide water management tool, MODSIM, is customized. Next, a simulation- optimization model has been developed using a coupled CSPSO-MODSIM, to optimize the total AEWP, considering climatic impact and crop pattern scenarios, for 2020-2038, 2050-2068 and 2080-2098 periods. Finally, the optimum crop pattern and crop water irrigation depths are presented for different RCPs and periods. The results indicated that this approach will improve considerably the AEWPs and decrease the agricultural water-use up to 40%. Thus, this integrated model is able to support water authorities and other stakeholder in a water-scarce basin, as is the study area.

This study presents a novel approach for the early detection of developing thunderstorms. To date, methods for the detection of developing thunderstorms usually rely on accurate atmospheric motion vectors (AMVs) for the estimation of cooling rate of convective clouds, which corresponds to the updraft strength of the cloud objects. In this study we present a method for the estimation of the updraft strength that does not rely on AMVs. The updraft strength is derived directly from the satellite observations in the SEVIRI water vapor channels. For this purpose the absolute value of the vector product of two vectors derived from the observed radiances emitted by the water vapor channels in 2 subsequent satellite images is calculated. The x and y components of the vectors consists of the temporal change of the spatial brightness temperature gradients in x- and y-direction, the z component consists of the temporal variation of the brightness temperature at pixel level. The absolute value of the vector product is referred to as normalized updraft strength (NUS). The performance of the method has been investigated for 2 summer periods in 2016 and 2017 by validation with lightning data. Values of the Critical Success Index (CSI) of about 66 % for the 2016 period and 62 % for the 2017 period demonstrate the good performance of the method. The POD values for the experiments with the highest CSI values are 90.3 for 2016 period and 87.6 for the 2017 period, respectively The corresponding FAR values are 28.2% (2016) and 32.5 % (2017), respectively. In summary, the method has the potential to reduce the forecast lead time significantly, and can be quite useful in regions without a well maintained radar network.

Data on the atmospheric gas concentrations can be received with high efficiency and on a large spatial scale only from remote laser sounding instruments. The remote laser techniques with the use of lidars are widely used in the study of the atmosphere and control of its state. The aims of this work are the design and test in numerical and field experiments of a DIAL OPO lidar system based on KTA and KTP crystals for gas analysis of the atmosphere. Lidar measurements of atmospheric gases in the near/mid infrared region have been numerically simulated. The differential absorption lidar system based on optical parametric oscillators with nonlinear KTA and KTP crystals which allow laser radiation tuning both in the near and in the middle IR spectral region is described; it allows tuning laser radiation in the near/mid-IR wavelength regions. Lidar echo signals have been experimentally recorded in the 1.8–2.5 and 3–4 m wavelength ranges. The results of H2O and CO2 profile measurements along the surface sounding path are presented.

A forecasting scheme of the thermal updraft velocity based on a theoretical model and data collected from flights records at gliding competitions, is presented. The forecasting scheme was based on the hypothesis that there is linear relationship between the overheat function at ground surface and the temperature difference between soil and air. The proportionality factor of this relationship was determined experimentally using observations recorded during gliding flights. The results showed that based on this simple scheme forecasting thermal convection is possible at any geographical location.

Polar mesocyclones (MCs) are small marine atmospheric vortices. The class of intense MCs, called polar lows, are accompanied by extremely strong surface winds and heat fluxes and thus largely influencing deep ocean water formation in the polar regions. Accurate detection of polar mesocyclones in high-resolution satellite data, while challenging, is a time-consuming task, when performed manually. Existing algorithms for the automatic detection of polar mesocyclones are based on the conventional analysis of patterns of cloudiness and involve different empirically defined thresholds of geophysical variables. As a result, various detection methods typically reveal very different results when applied to a single dataset. We develop a conceptually novel approach for the detection of MCs based on the use of deep convolutional neural networks (DCNNs). As a first step, we demonstrate that DCNN model is capable of performing binary classification of 500x500km patches of satellite images regarding MC patterns presence in it. The training dataset is based on the reference database of MCs manually tracked in the Southern Hemisphere from satellite mosaics. We use a subset of this database with MC diameters falling in the range of 200-400 km. This dataset is further used for testing several different DCNN setups, specifically, DCNN built “from scratch”, DCNN based on VGG16 pre-trained weights also engaging the Transfer Learning technique, and DCNN based on VGG16 with Fine Tuning technique. Each of these networks is further applied to both infrared (IR) and a combination of infrared and water vapor (IR+WV) satellite imagery. The best skills (97% in terms of the binary classification accuracy score) is achieved with the model that averages the estimates of the ensemble of different DCNNs. The algorithm can be further extended to the automatic identification and tracking numerical scheme and applied to other atmospheric phenomena characterized by a distinct signature in satellite imagery.

Turbulent flows over and within forest canopies have recently been modeled with success using Large Eddy Simulations (LES). Validation exercises against experimental data suggest that models can be applied with a high degree of confidence for many applications, mechanical and physiological plant/atmosphere interaction analysis, seed or pollen dispersal, wildfire spread and firebrand transport, or investigation of causes of eddy-covariance technique bias. Long distances required for shear-induced turbulence to equilibrate, result in the widespread use of cyclic boundary conditions in LES atmospheric boundary layer studies. Vegetation drag dissipates air momentum in the atmosphere, but equilibrium is often achieved through compensatory momentum source, supplied by macro-scale pressure gradient forcing. Unfortunately, both classical Ekman balance or simple spatially-constant pressure gradient techniques for implementing this forcing have major drawbacks in the context of cyclic boundary conditions for the applications listed above. Among them, it is difficult to specify aspects of the mean velocity profile such as a specific desired wind velocity and direction at a reference height. In the present paper, we propose a new technique for capturing the effects of  a large-scale pressure gradient force (LSPGF) that can be used at stand scale and enables  simulation of realistic and specifiable wind fields. Several variants of this LSPGF are developed and analyzed here and validated against experimental data. Although this LSPGF technique is developed in the context of HIGRAD/FIRETEC wildfire simulations, LSPGF can be used for any LES wind modeling application aimed at generating detailed stand-scale wind fields with resolved turbulence and shear profiles consistent with vegetation structure in the boundary layer.

Improving air quality and reducing human exposure to unhealthy levels of airborne chemicals are important global missions, particularly in China. Satellite remote sensing offers a powerful tool to examine regional trends in NO2, thus providing a direct measure of key parameters that strongly affect surface air quality. To accurately resolve spatial gradients in NO2 concentration using satellite observations and thus understand local and regional aspects of air quality, a priori input data at sufficiently high spatial and temporal resolution to account for pixel-to-pixel variability in the characteristics of the land and atmosphere are required. In this paper, we adapt the Berkeley High Resolution product (BEHR v3.0A, v3.0B and v3.0C) and meteorological outputs from the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to describe column NO2 in southern China. The BEHR approach is particularly useful for places with large spatial variabilities and terrain height differences such as China. We retrieved tropospheric NO2 vertical column density (TVCD) within part of southern China, for four seasons of 2015, based upon satellite datasets from Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI). Retrieval results are validated by comparing with MAX-DOAS tropospheric column measurements conducted in Guangzhou. BEHR retrieval algorithms are more consistent with MAX-DOAS measurements than OMI-NASA retrieval, opening new windows into research questions that require high spatial resolution, for example retrieving NO2 vertical column and ground pollutant concentration in China and other countries.

Towards the investigation and further understanding of the development and propagation of Medicanes, this study explores the forecasting capability of WRF model in case of cyclone “Cleopatra” which affected with extreme rainfall and strong winds Sardinia and Calabria, Italy, in November 2013.  This cyclone was unusual in that it developed a warm core but did not fulfill its transformation into a tropical-like cyclone because its core did not expand high enough in the tropospnere. The ERA5 reanalysis dataset was dynamically downscaled from 31 km spatial horizontal resolution to 9 km using WRF model. The methodology consists of; firstly, an extensive physical parameterization schemes sensitivity test and consequently, a short-range ensemble forecasting implementation based on the highest statistical scored physics configuration. All simulation results were validated against surface observations and remote sensing products. Subsequently, the modeled cyclone trajectories are compared to satellite imagery derived from EUMETSAT-SEVIRI gridded data. The findings of the conducted analysis illustrate that ensemble average displays significant difference in performance compared to any of the deterministic runs individually, suggesting that ensemble forecasts will be beneficial in studies assessing cyclonic events in the Mediterranean region.

Polar mesocyclones (MCs) are small marine atmospheric vortices. The class of intense MCs, called polar lows, are accompanied by extremely strong surface winds and heat fluxes and thus largely influencing deep ocean water formation in the polar regions. Accurate detection of polar mesocyclones in high-resolution satellite data, while challenging, is a time-consuming task, when performed manually. Existing algorithms for the automatic detection of polar mesocyclones are based on the conventional analysis of patterns of cloudiness and involve different empirically defined thresholds of geophysical variables. As a result, various detection methods typically reveal very different results when applied to a single dataset. We present a conceptually novel approach for the detection of MCs based on the use of deep convolutional neural networks (DCNNs). We demonstrate that DCNN model is capable of performing binary classification of 500x500km patches of satellite images regarding MC patterns presence in it. The training dataset is based on the reference database of MCs manually tracked in the Southern Hemisphere from satellite mosaics. This dataset is further used for testing several different DCNN setups, specifically, DCNN built “from scratch”, DCNN based on VGG16 pre-trained weights also engaging the Transfer Learning technique, and DCNN based on VGG16 with Fine Tuning technique. Each of these networks is further applied to both infrared (IR) and a combination of infrared and water vapor (IR+WV) satellite imagery. The best skills (97% in terms of the binary classification accuracy score) is achieved with the model that averages the estimates of the ensemble of different DCNNs. The algorithm can be further extended to the automatic identification and tracking numerical scheme and applied to other atmospheric phenomena characterized by a distinct signature in satellite imagery.

Here we present an overview of speleothem δ18O records from South America, which mostly are available in the Speleothem Isotopes Synthesis and Analysis (SISAL_v1) database. South American tropical and subtropical δ18O time series are primarily interpreted as being driven by the amount effect and, consequently show the past history of the convection intensity of convergence zones such as the Intertropical Convergence Zone and the South America Monsoon System. We investigate past hydroclimate scenarios in South America related to the South American Monsoon System in three different time scales: Late Pleistocene, Holocene and the last two millennia. The precession driven insolation is the main driver of convective variability over the continent during the last 250 kyrs, including the Holocene period. However a dipole is observed between the west and east portions of the continent. Records located in the central region of Brazil appear to be weakly affected by insolation driven variability and more susceptible to the South Atlantic Convergence Zone. Cold episodic events in Northern Hemisphere increase the activity of the South American Monsoon System on all time scales, in turn increasing rainfall amounts in South America, as was documented during Heinrich events in the late Pleistocene and Bond events in the Holocene, as well as during the Little Ice Age.

Global wind observations are fundamental for studying weather and climate dynamics. Most wind measurements come from atmospheric motion vectors (AMVs) by tracking the displacement of cloud or water vapor features. These AMVs generally rely on thermal infrared (IR) techniques for their height assignments, which are subject to large uncertainties in the presence of weak or reversed vertical temperature gradients around the planetary boundary layer (PBL) and with tropopause folding. Stereo imaging can overcome the height assignment problem using geometric parallax for feature height determination. In this study we develop a stereo 3D-Wind algorithm to simultaneously retrieve AMV and height from geostationary (GEO) and low Earth orbit (LEO) satellite imagery and apply it to collocated Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) and Multi-angle Imaging SpectroRadiometer (MISR) imagery. The new algorithm improves AMV and height relative to products from GOES or MISR alone, with an estimated accuracy of <0.5 m/s in AMV and <200 m in height with 2.2 km sampling. The algorithm can be generalized to other LEO-GEO or GEO-GEO combinations for greater spatiotemporal coverage. The technique demonstrated with MISR and GOES has important implications for future high-quality AMV observations, for which a low-cost constellation of CubeSats can play a vital role.

This study focusses on identifying a set of representative future climate projections for the Upper Indus Basin (UIB). Although a large number of GCM’s predictor sets are nowadays available in the CMIP5 archive, the issue of their reliability for specific regions must still be confronted. This situation makes it imperative to sort out the most appropriate, single or small-ensemble set of GCMs for the assessment of climate change impacts in a region. Here a set of different approaches is adopted and applied for a step-wise shortlist and selection of appropriate climate models for the UIB under two RCPs: RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5, based on, a) range of projected mean changes, b) range of projected extreme changes, and c) skill in reproducing the past climate. Furthermore, because of higher uncertainties in climate projection for high mountainous regions like the UIB, a wider range of future GCM climate projections is considered by using all possible future extreme scenarios (wet-warm, wet-cold, dry-warm, dry-cold). Based on this two-fold procedure, a limited number of climate models is pre-selected, out of which the final selection is done by assigning ranks to the weighted score for each of the mentioned selection criteria. The dynamically downscaled climate projections from the Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) available for the top-ranked GCMs are further statistically downscaled (bias-corrected) over the UIB. The downscaled projections up to year 2100 indicate temperature increases ranging between 2.3 °C and 9.0 °C and precipitation changes that range, from a slight annual increase of 2.2% under the drier scenarios,  to as high as 15.9% for the wet scenarios.  Moreover, for all scenarios, the future precipitation will be more extreme, as the probability of wet days will decrease, while, at the same time, the precipitation intensities will increase. The spatial distribution of the downscaled predictors across the UIB also shows similar patterns for all scenarios, with a distinct precipitation decrease over the south-eastern parts of the basin, but an increase in the northeastern parts. These two features are particularly intense for the “Dry-Warm” and the “Median” scenarios over the late 21st century.

Nowadays a recognized need for accurate observations of atmospheric aerosols (AEs) and reactive gases (RGs) exists in the framework of regional, national and global near-surface networks based on permanent or mobile measurement stations. In this context, a paramount and not-trivial issue is related to the correct execution of continuous sampling of ambient air and its subsequent distribution to measurement analyzers hosted inside the stations. Sampling artifacts must be minimized for obtaining reliable pictures of ambient air composition. To respond to this need, a suite of novel “smart” and relatively low-cost systems for the continuous sampling of ambient air was developed in the framework of the Project I-AMICA (2012 – 2015, www.i-amica.eu). These systems were designed to execute AE and RG measurements according with WMO/GAW and ACTRIS recommendations and standard operation procedures. A particular attention was dedicated to the stabilization and control of the sampling flow rates and temperatures. The analysis of one full year of operations at the WMO/GAW regional station of Capo Granitola (GAW ID: CGR, Italy), allowed to conclude that these systems are effective in meeting the technical requirements for correct execution of AE and RG measurements

The impact of snow darkening by deposition of light absorbing aerosols (LAAs) on snow cover over the Himalaya-Tibetan-Plateau (HTP) and influence on the Asian monsoon are investigated using the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System Model Version 5 (GEOS-5). We find that during April-May-June, deposition of LAAs on snow leads to a reduction in surface albedo, initiating a sequence of feedback processes, starting with increased surface solar radiation, rapid snowmelt in HTP and warming of the surface and upper troposphere, followed by enhanced low-level southwesterlies and increased dust loading over the Himalayas-Indo-Gangetic Plain. The warming is amplified by increased dust aerosol heating, and subsequently amplified by latent heating from enhanced precipitation over the Himalaya foothills and northern India, via the Elevated Heat Pump (EHP) effect during June-July-August. The reduced snow cover in the HTP anchors the enhanced heating over the Tibetan Plateau and its southern slopes, in conjunction with an enhancement of the Tibetan Anticyclone, and the development of an anomalous Rossby wavetrain over East Asia, leading to weakening of the subtropical westerly jet, and northward displacement and intensification of the Mei-Yu rainbelt. Our results suggest that atmosphere-land heating by LAAs, particularly desert dust play a fundamental role in physical processes underpinning the snow-monsoon relationship proposed by Blandford more than a century ago.

Abstract: Characterization the 3-D structure of clouds is needed for a more complete understanding of the Earth's radiative and latent heat fluxes. Here we develop and explore a “ray casting” algorithm applied to the Multi-angle Imaging SpectroRadiometer (MISR) on board the Terra satellite, to reconstruct 3-D cloud volumes for observed clouds. The ray casting algorithm is first applied to geometrically simple synthetic clouds to show that, under the assumption of perfect, clear-conservative cloud masks, the reconstruction method yields overestimation whose magnitude depends on the cloud geometry and the resolution of the reconstruction grid relative to the image pixel resolution. The method is then applied to two select MISR scenes, fully accounting for MISR’s viewing geometry for reconstructions over the Earth’s ellipsoidal surface. The MISR Radiometric Camera-by-camera Cloud Masks at 1.1 km resolution and custom cloud masks at 275 m resolution independently derived from MISR RGB channels are used as input cloud masks. A wind correction method, termed “cloud spreading”, is devised and applied to the cloud masks to offset potential cloud movements over short time intervals (around 7 minutes at maximum) between the cameras. The MISR cloud top height product is used as a constraint to reduce the overestimation at the cloud top. The reconstruction results show that their uncertainty is significant when the wind correction is applied, and that they have more refined structures when the input cloud mask has a higher resolution. Recommendations for improving the presented cloud volume reconstructions as well as for future passive remote sensing satellite missions are discussed.

 This study shows the application of self-organizing maps (SOMs) to probabilistic forecasts of wind power generation and ramps in Japan. SOMs are applied to atmospheric variables obtained from atmospheric reanalysis over the region, thus deriving classified weather patterns (WPs). Probabilistic relationships are established between the synoptic-scale atmospheric variables over East Japan and the generation of regionally integrated wind power in East Japan. Medium-range probabilistic wind power predictions are derived by SOM, as analog ensembles based on the WPs of the multi-center ensemble forecasts. As this analog approach handles stochastic uncertainties effectively, probabilistic wind power forecasts are rapidly generated from a very large number of forecast ensembles. The use of a multi-model ensemble provides better results than a one-forecast model. The hybrid ensemble forecasts further improve the probabilistic predictability skill of wind power generation, as compared with non-hybrid methods. It is expected that long-term wind forecasts will provide better guidance to transmission grid operators. The advantage of this method is that it can include an interpretative analysis of meteorological factors for variations in renewable energy.

Polar mesocyclones (MCs) are small marine atmospheric vortices. The class of intense MCs, called polar lows, are accompanied by extremely strong surface winds and heat fluxes and thus largely influencing deep ocean water formation in the polar regions. Accurate detection of polar mesocyclones in high-resolution satellite data, while challenging, is a time-consuming task, when performed manually. Existing algorithms for the automatic detection of polar mesocyclones are based on the conventional analysis of patterns of cloudiness and involve different empirically defined thresholds of geophysical variables. As a result, various detection methods typically reveal very different results when applied to a single dataset. We present a conceptually novel approach for the detection of MCs based on the use of deep convolutional neural networks (DCNNs). We demonstrate that DCNN model is capable of performing binary classification of 500x500km patches of satellite images regarding MC patterns presence in it. The training dataset is based on the reference database of MCs manually tracked in the Southern Hemisphere from satellite mosaics. This dataset is further used for testing several different DCNN setups, specifically, DCNN built “from scratch”, DCNN based on VGG16 pre-trained weights also engaging the Transfer Learning technique, and DCNN based on VGG16 with Fine Tuning technique. Each of these networks is further applied to both infrared (IR) and a combination of infrared and water vapor (IR+WV) satellite imagery. The best skills (97% in terms of the binary classification accuracy score) is achieved with the model that averages the estimates of the ensemble of different DCNNs. The algorithm can be further extended to the automatic identification and tracking numerical scheme and applied to other atmospheric phenomena characterized by a distinct signature in satellite imagery.

The current study applied a new approach for the interpolation and regionalization of observed precipitation series to a smaller spatial scale (0.125° by 0.125° grid) across the Upper Indus Basin (UIB), with appropriate adjustments for the orographic effect and changes in glacier storage. The approach is evaluated and validated through reverse hydrology, guided by observed flows and available knowledge base. More specifically, the generated corrected precipitation data is validated by means of SWAT-modelled responses of the observed flows to the different input precipitation series (original and corrected ones). The results show that the SWAT- simulated flows using the corrected, regionalized precipitation series as input are much more in line with the observed flows than those using the uncorrected observed precipitation input for which significant underestimations are obtained.

It has been an outstanding challenge for global climate models to simulate and predict East Asia (EA) summer monsoon (EASM) rainfall. This study evaluates the dynamical hindcast skills with the newly developed Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology Earth System Model version 3.0 (NESM3.0). To improve the poor prediction of an earlier version of NESM3.0, we have modified convective parameterization schemes to suppress excessive deep convection and enhance insufficient shallow and stratiform clouds. The new version of NESM3.0 with modified parameterizations (MOD hereafter) yields significantly improved rainfall prediction in the northern and southern China but not over the Yangtze River Valley. The improved prediction is primarily attributed to the improvements in the predicted climatological summer mean rainfall and circulations, seasonal march of the subtropical rain belt, Nino 3.4 SST anomaly, and the rainfall anomalies associated with the development and decay of El Nino events. However, the MOD still has notable biases in the predicted leading mode of interannual variability of precipitation. The leading mode captures the dry (wet) anomalies over the South China Sea (northern EA) but misplaced precipitation anomalies over the Yangtze River Valley. The model can capture the interannual variation of the circulation indices very well, but the bias in the circulation-rainfall connection caused predicted rainfall errors. The results here suggest that over EA land regions, the skillful rainfall prediction relies on not only model’s capability in predicting better summer mean and seasonal march of rainfall and ENSO teleconnection with EASM, but also accurate prediction of the leading modes of interannual variability.

The present study aims to evaluate the capability of the TRMM-3B42-(V7) precipitation product to estimate appropriate precipitation rates in the Upper Indus basin (UIB) and the analysis of the dependency of the estimates’ accuracies on the time scale. To that avail statistical analyses and comparison of the TMPA- products with gauge measurements in the UIB are carried out. The dependency of the TMPA estimates’ quality on the time scale is analysed by comparisons of daily, monthly, seasonal and annual sums for the UIB. The results show considerable biases in the TMPA- (TRMM) precipitation estimates for the UIB, as well as high false alarms and miss ratios. The correlation of the TMPA- estimates with ground-based gauge data increases considerably and almost in a linear fashion with increasing temporal aggregation, i.e. time scale. The BIAS is mostly positive for the summer season, while for the winter season it is predominantly negative, thereby showing a slight over-estimation of the precipitation in summer and under-estimation in winter. The results of the study suggest that, in spite of these discrepancies between TMPA- estimates and gauge data, the use of the former in hydrological watershed modelling, endeavoured presently by the authors, may be a valuable alternative in data- scarce regions, like the UIB, but still must be taken with a grain of salt.

This study presents a pre-processing approach adopted for the radar reflectivity data assimilation and results of simulations with the Harmonie numerical weather prediction model. The method shows an improvement of precipitation prediction within the radar location area in both the rain rates and spatial pattern presentation. With the assimilation of radar data, the model simulates larger water content in the middle troposphere within the layer from 1 to 6 km, with major variations at 2.5–3 km; it also reproduces better the mesoscale belt and cell patterns of precipitation fields.

Passive microwave measurements have been available on satellites dating back to the 1970s on research satellites flown by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA). Since then, several other sensors have been flown to retrieve hydrological products for both operational weather applications (e.g., the Special Sensor Microwave/Imager–SSM/I; the Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit–AMSU) and climate applications (e.g., the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer–AMSR; the Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission Microwave Imager–TMI; the Global Precipitation Mission Microwave Imager–GMI). Here the focus is on measurements from the AMSU-A, AMSU-B and Microwave Humidity Sounder (MHS). These sensors have been in operation since 1998 with the launch of NOAA-15, and are also on board NOAA-16, -17, -18, -19 and the MetOp-A and -B satellites. A data set called the “Hydrological Bundle” is a Climate Data Record (CDR) that utilizes brightness temperatures from Fundamental CDRs to generate Thematic CDRs (TCDR). The TCDR’s include: Total Precipitable Water (TPW), Cloud Liquid Water (CLW), Sea-Ice concentration (SIC), Land surface temperature (LST), Land surface emissivity (LSE) for 23, 31, 50 GHz, rain rate (RR), snow cover (SC), ice water path (IWP), and snow water equivalent (SWE). The TCDR’s are shown to be in general good agreement with similar products from other sources such as the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) and the Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA-2). Because of the careful intercalibration of the FCDR’s, little bias is found among the different TCDR’s produced from individual NOAA and MetOp satellites, except for normal diurnal cycle differences.

The data assimilation method to improve sea fog forecast over the Yellow Sea is usually three-dimensional variational assimilation (3DVAR), whereas ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) has not yet been applied on this weather phenomenon. In this paper, two sea fog cases over the Yellow sea, one spread widely and the other spread narrowly along the coastal area, are studied in detail by a series of numerical experiments with 3DVAR and EnKF based on the Grid-point Statistical Interpolation (GSI) system and the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. The results show that the assimilation effect of EnKF outperforms that of 3DVAR: for the widespread-fog case, the probability of detection and equitable threat scores of the forecasted sea fog area get improved respectively by ~57.9% and ~55.5%; the sea fog of the other case completely mis-forecasted by 3DVAR is produced successfully by EnKF. These improvements of EnKF relative to 3DVAR are benefited from its flow-dependent background error, resulting in more realistic depiction of sea surface wind for the widespread-fog case and better moisture distribution for the other case in the initial conditions. More importantly, the correlation between temperature and humidity in the background error of EnKF plays a vital role in the response of moisture to the assimilation of temperature, which leads to a great improvement on the initial moisture conditions for sea fog forecast.

We review the state of dynamical downscaling with scale-constrained regional and global models. The methodology, in particular spectral nudging, has become a routine and well-researched tool for hindcasting climatologies of sub-synoptic atmospheric disturbances in coastal regions. At present, the spectrum of applications is expanding to other phenomena, but also to ocean dynamics and to extended forecasting. Also new diagnostic challenges are appearing such as spatial characteristics of small-scale phenomena such as Low Level Jets.

The predictability of wind information in a given location is essential for the evaluation of a wind power project. Predicting wind speed accurately improves the planning of wind power generation, reducing costs and improving the use of resources. This paper seeks to predict the mean hourly wind speed in anemometric towers (at a height of 50 meters) at two locations: a coastal region and one with complex terrain characteristics. To this end, the Holt-Winters (HW), Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) and Hybrid time-series models were used. Observational data evaluated by the Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications-Version 2 (MERRA-2) reanalysis at the same height of the towers. The results show that the hybrid model had a better performance in relation to the others, including when compared to the evaluation with MERRA-2. For example, in terms of statistical residuals, RMSE and MAE were 0.91 and 0.62 m/s, respectively. As such, the hybrid models are a good method to forecast wind speed data for wind generation.

Large water bodies such as the Laurentian Great Lakes have significant influences on local and regional climate through their unique physical features. Due to the coarse spatial resolution of general circulation models (GCMs), the Great Lakes are geometrically ignored in most GCMs. Thus, the dynamical downscaling technique serves as a necessary and feasible solution to bridge the gap. The Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF) with an updated lake scheme is employed to downscale from a GCM, GFDL-CM3. The WRF-Lake’s performance is evaluated against observations, the GCM, as well as 23 other GCMs. Results show that the coupled air-lake model, with a fine spatial resolution and realistic lake bathymetries, reproduced a more reasonable spatiotemporal climatology than GCMs, as well as the lake-induced characteristics that were missed in GCMs. With lakes present, the seasonal variability of air temperature was reduced in WRF-Lake relative to GFDL-CM3, especially in summer. A reduced air temperature trend, about 4.5 °C/100 year in the 21st century, was projected in WRF-Lake. The seasonal evolutions of lake surface temperature and lake ice coverage were well captured by the lake model. The lake surface temperature was projected to be warming by 3.5-4 °C and the lake ice diminishing by 58.9% - 86%. Those results brought by the WRF-Lake model suggest that a fine resolution of the topography and the incorporation of the lake-atmosphere interactions are crucial to improve the understanding of the climate and climate change in the Great Lakes region.

A diagnostic method is presented for analysing the large-scale behaviour of the Met Office Unified Model, which is a comprehensive atmospheric model used for weather and climate prediction. Outside the boundary layer, on scales larger than the radius of deformation, semigeostrophic theory will give an accurate approximation to the model evolution. In particular, the ageostrophic circulation required to maintain geostrophic and hydrostatic balance against prescribed forcing and a rate of change of the geostrophic pressure can be calculated. In the tropics the balance condition degenerates to the weak temperature gradient approximation. Within the boundary layer the semigeostriptic approximation has to be used because friction and rotation are equally important. Assuming the calculated pressure tendency and ageotriptic circulation match the observed model behaviour, the influence of the large-scale state and the nature of the forcing on the model response can be deduced in a straightforward way. This process is illustrated by comparing predictions of the ageotriptic circulation from the theory and the model. It is then used to show that the effects of latent heat release can be included by modifying the static stability, and to show the effect of an idealised tropical heat source on the subtropical jet. Finally the response of the ageotriptic flow to boundary layer heating in the tropics is demonstrated. These illustrations show that the model behaviour on large scales conforms with theoretical expectations, so that the results of the diagnostic can be used to aid the development of further improvements to the model.

El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is an important of mode of climatic variability that through altering climate patterns exerts a discernible impact on ecosystems and society. For this reason, ENSO has attracted much interest in the climate and health science community with many analysts investigating ENSO health links through considering the degree of dependency of the incidence of a range of climate diseases on the occurrence of El Niño events. Because of the mounting interest in the relationship between ENSO as a major mode of climatic variability and health this paper presents an overview of the basic characteristics of the ENSO phenomenon and its climate impacts, discusses the use of ENSO indices in climate and health research and outlines the present understanding of ENSO health associations. Also touched upon are ENSO-based seasonal health forecasting and the possible impacts of climate change on ENSO and the implications this holds for future assessments of ENSO health associations. The review concludes that there is still some way to go before a thorough understanding of the association between ENSO and health is achieved with a need to move beyond analyses undertaken through a purely statistical lens with due acknowledgement that ENSO as a complex non-canonical phenomenon and that simple ENSO health associations should not be expected.

The Absorbing/scattering nature of aerosols affects the total radiative forcing and this absorption to total extinction ratio is quantified by single scattering albedo (SSA). Effect of SSA in the Ultraviolet (UV) irradiance is less studied and limited measurements are available. SSA retrieved at Athens, Greece during 2009-2014 from Ultraviolet Multifilter Radiometer (UVMFR) at 332 and 368 nm, were used to calculate incoming UV irradiance, alongside with ones from AERONET at visible wavelengths, from OMI satellite at 342.5 nm and from AEROCOM climatological database at 300 nm. UVA and UVB irradiances were estimated using a Radiative Transfer Model and we found that relative differences could be as high as 20%, while average relative differences varied from 2% to 8.7 % for the whole experimental period. Both UVA and UVB drop by a rate of ~12% for 0.05 aerosol absorption optical depth compared to ones estimated using SSA at visible range. Brewer irradiance measurements at 324nm were used to validate simulated irradiances and a better agreement was found when UVMFR SSAs were used with an average difference of 0.86%, while when using visible or climatological input, relative differences were estimated +4.91 and +4.15% accordingly.

Land Surface Temperature (LST) is a basic parameter in energy exchange between the land and atmosphere and is frequently used in many sciences such as climatology, hydrology, agriculture, ecology, etc. LST time series data have usually deficient, missing and unacceptable data caused by the presence of clouds in images, presence of dust in atmosphere and sensor failure. In this study, Singular Spectrum Analysis (SSA) algorithm was used to resolve the problem of missing and outlier data caused by cloud cover. The region studied in the present research included an image frame of MODIS with horizontal number 22 and vertical number 05 (h22v05). This image involved a large part of Iran and Turkmenistan and Caspian Sea. In this study, MODIS LST sensor (MOD11A1) was used during 2015 with 1×1 Km spatial resolution and day/night LST data (daily temporal resolution). The results of the data quality showed that cloud cover caused 36.37% of missing data in the studied time series with 730 day/night LST images. Further, the results of SSA algorithm in reconstruction of LST images indicated the Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) of 2.95 K between the original and reconstructed data in LST time series in the study region. In general, the findings showed that SSA algorithm using spatio-temporal interpolation in LST time series can be effectively used to resolve the problem of missing data caused by cloud cover.

With the continual global increase of PV power systems and the inherent weather-induced volatility of their power output, understanding the underlying variability of solar radiation in both space and time is important for the planning and reliable operation of future power grids. This paper concisely reviews recent advances in the characterization of irradiance variability with an emphasis on small spatial and temporal scales (respectively less than about 10\,km and 1\,min), for which comprehensive data sets are time consuming and expensive to collect, and although needed have not been available until recently. Special attention is given to studies dealing with the quantification of variability using such unique data, the analysis and modeling of spatial smoothing, and the evaluation of temporal averaging.

Maritime Continent (MC) positions in between Asian and Australian summer monsoons zone. Its complex topography and shallow seas around it is a major challenge for the climate researchers to model and understand it. Monsoon in this area is affected by inter-scale ocean-atmospheric interactions like El-Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and Madden-Julian Oscillation. Monsoon rainfall in MC (especially in Indonesia and Malaysia) profoundly exhibits its variability dependency on ocean-atmospheric phenomena in this region. This monsoon shift often introduces to dreadful events like biomass burning (BB) in Southeast Asia (SEA) which sometimes leads to severe trans-boundary haze pollution. In this study, the episode of BB in 2015 of SEA is highlighted and discussed. Observational satellite datasets are tested by performing simulations with numerical weather prediction (NWP) model using WRF-ARW (Advanced research WRF). Observed and model datasets are compared to study the sea surface temperature (SST) and precipitation (rainfall) anomalies influenced by ENSO, IOD and MJO. Correlations have been recognised which explains the delayed rainfall of regular monsoon in MC due to the influence of ENSO, IOD and MJO during 2015 BB episode, eventually leading to intensification of fire and severe haze.

Several long-term monitoring of aerosol datasets from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on board Terra/Aqua, Multi-angle Imaging SpectroRadiometer (MISR), Sea-Viewing Wide Field-of-View Sensor (SeaWiFS) are used to derive the dust aerosol optical depth (DOD) in Central Asia based on the Angstrom exponent parameter and/or the particle shape. All sensors agree very well on the interannual variability of DOD. The seasonal analysis of DOD and dust occurrences identified the largest dust loading and the most frequent dust occurrence in the spring and summer, respectively. No significant trend is found during the research period in terms of both DOD and the dust occurrence. Further analysis of Cloud-Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observation (CALIPSO) aerosol products on a case-by-case basis in most dust months of 2007 suggested that the vertical structure is varying in terms of the extension and the dust loading from one event to another, although dust particles of most episodes have similar physical characteristics (the particle shape and size). Our analysis on the vertical structure of dust plumes, the layer-integrated color ratio and depolarization ratio indicates a varied climate effect (e.g., the direct radiative impact) by mineral dust, dependent on the event being observed in Central Asia.

Traffic source emissions inventories for the rapidly growing West African urban cities are necessary for better local characterization of vehicle emissions released into these cities atmosphere. This study based on local field campaign in a representative site of anthropogenic activities over West African cities such as Yopougon (Abidjan, Côte d'Ivoire) during 2016, provided useful information on vehicle type and age, traveling time, fuel type and amount for fuel consumption estimation. Also, high traffic flow of personal car were recorded on highway, boulevard and backstreet whereas high flows of intra-communal sedan taxi are recorded on main and secondary roads. In addition, the highest daily fuel consumption value of 56 L.day^-1 was recorded in heavy vehicle while the lowest value of 15 L.day^-1 is recorded for personal car using gasoline. This study will be useful for the improvement of uncertainties related to the different databases used to estimate inventories emissions either national or international reports.   This work provides useful information for future studies on urban air quality, climate and health impacts assessment in African cities. It may also be useful for policy makers to support implementation of emission reduction policy in West African cities.

The characteristics of biogenic aerosols in urban area were explored by determining the composition, temporal distribution of saccharides in PM_2.5 in Shanghai. The total saccharides showed a wide range of 15.2 ng/m³ to 1752.8 ng/m³, with the averaged concentrations were 169.8 ng/m³，300.5 ng/m³，288.4 ng/m³，688 ng/m³ in spring, summer, autumn, and winter, respectively. The concerned saccharides include anhydrosaccharides (levoglucosan and mannosan), which were higher in cold seasons due to the increased biomass burning, saccharide alcohols (mannitol, arabitol, sorbitol) and monosaccharides (fructose, glucose), which showed more abundant in warm seasons attributed to the biological emissions. By PMF analysis, four emission sources of saccharides were demonstrated, including biomass burning, fungal spores, soil suspension and plant pollens. Resolution of backward trajectory and fire points showed a process of high concentrations of levoglucosan. We found that concentrations of anhydrosaccharides showed relatively stable under different pollution levels while saccharide alcohols exhibited an obvious decrease, indicated that biomass burning was not the core reason of the heavy haze pollution, however, and high level PM_2.5 pollution might inhibit effects of biological activities.

In the lightning rods categorized as ESE an intermittent voltage impulse is applied to the lightning rod to modulate the electric field at its tip in an attempt to speed up the initiation of a connecting leader from the lightning rod when it is under the influence of a down coming stepped leader. In this paper it is shown that due to the stepping nature of the down coming stepped leader, there is a natural modulation of the electric field at the tip of any lightning rod exposed to the lightning stepped leaders and this modulation is much more intense than any artificial modulation that is possible under practical conditions. Based on the results it is claimed that artificial modulation of the electric field at the tip of lightning rods by applying voltage pulses to it is an unnecessary endeavor because the nature itself has endowed the tip of the lightning rod with a modulating electric field. Thus, as far as the effectiveness of artificial modulation of the tip electric field is concerned, there could be no difference in the lightning attachment efficiency between ESE and Franklin lightning rods.

The Urban Heat Island (UHI) is one of the more serious consequences of urbanization resulting in impacts on thermal comfort levels, heat stress, and even mortality. For Municipal Beirut, implementation of “cool” surface materials and green spaces have been recommended to counterbalance the UHI. This paper builds on previous findings on the topic of non-constructible parcels within the district of Bachoura in Municipal Beirut and examines the possibility of implementing “cool” surface or paving materials and urban vegetation which can improve thermal conditions especially during the summer period and with the viewto project the positive findings of this case study to the entire Municipal Beirut area. A numerical analysis using ENVI-met 4.0 investigates the thermal performance of these non-constructibles further to implementation of high reflective surfaces and urban vegetation within a broad neighborhood scale in Bachoura. Results show reductions in ambient temperatures up to 1K on a summer day.. Within the framework of an integrated approach to planning, this form of urban acupuncture aims for substantial UHI reduction. Energy performance of buildings further to implementation of these mitigation measures is also recommended for future studies and to validate the findings in this paper.

Diablo winds are dry and gusty north-northeasterly downslope windstorms that affect the Northern California. On the evening of October 8, 2017, Diablo winds contributed to the ignitions and rapid spread of the “Northern California Firestorm”, including the Tubbs Fire, which burned 2,800 homes in Santa Rosa, resulted in 22 fatalities and $1.2B USD in damages. We analyzed 18 years of data from a network of surface meteorological stations and show that Diablo winds tend to occur overnight through early morning in Fall, Winter and Spring. Conditions similar to Diablo winds occur commonly in the Sierra Nevada Mountains in addition to the area North of the San Francisco Bay Area including the Northern Coastal Ranges. Diablo winds are characterized by high wind speeds and low relative humidity, but they tend to neither be warmer than climatology nor do they have a higher gust factor, or ratio of wind gusts to mean wind speeds, than climatology.

On 5-7 April 2018 a landfalling atmospheric river resulted in widespread heavy precipitation in the Sierra Nevada of California and Nevada. Observed snow levels during this event were among the highest snow levels recorded since observations began in 2002 and exceeded 2.75 km for 31 hours in the northern Sierra Nevada and 3.75 km for 12 hours in the southern Sierra Nevada. The anomalously high snow levels and over 80 mm of precipitation caused flooding, debris flows, and wet snow avalanches in the upper elevations of the Sierra Nevada. The origin of this atmospheric river was super typhoon Jelawat, whose moisture remnants were entrained and maintained by an extratropical cyclone in the northeast Pacific. This event was notable due to its April occurrence, as six other typhoon remnants that caused heavy precipitation with high snow levels (mean = 2.92 km) in the northern Sierra Nevada all occurred during October.

A record-breaking dust episode took place in Crete on 22 March 2018. The event was characterized by surface concentrations exceeding 1 mg m-3 for a period of 4-7 hours, reaching record values higher than 6 mg m-3 at the background station of Finokalia. We present here a detailed analysis of the atmospheric dynamical processes during this period, to identify the main reasons that resulted in such extreme dust advection over Crete. At synoptic scale, the weakening of the polar vortex and the meridional transport of polar air masses at upper tropospheric layers resulted in a strong jet streak over N. Africa and Central Mediterranean and corresponding tropospheric folding that brought cold stratospheric air in mid and upper troposphere. Cyclogenesis occurred at the Gulf of Sirte in Libya, resulting on strong winds over the NE parts of Libya, enhancing particle emissions. The dust plume traveled at low heights (0.5-3 km) along the warm conveyor belt preceding the depression cold front. This type of dusty southerly wind is commonly known as “Khamsin”. As the flow approached Crete, Foehn winds at the lee side of the island favored the downward mixing of dust towards the surface, resulting in local maxima of PM10 in Heraklion and Finokalia. The analysis is based on the synergy of high resolution WRF-Chem simulations reaching up to 1×1 km grid space over Crete, ground-based and satellite remote sensing of the dust plumes (PollyXT lidar, MSG-SEVIRI, MODIS) and detailed surface aerosol in-situ measurements at urban (Heraklion, Chania) and background (Finokalia) stations in Crete.

In this paper we illustrate a new, simple and complementary ground-based methodology to retrieve the vertically resolved atmospheric precipitation intensity through a synergy between measurements from the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Micropulse Lidar network (MPLNET), an analytical model solution and ground-based disdrometer measurements. The presented results are obtained at two mid-latitude MPLNET permanent observational sites, located respectively at NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, USA, and at the Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya, Barcelona, Spain. The methodology is suitable to be applied to existing and/or future lidar/ceilometer networks with the main objective of either providing near-real time (3h latency) rainfall intensity measurements and/or to validate satellite missions, especially for critical light precipitation (<3 mm hr⁻¹).

The air quality monitoring network in Alaska is currently limited to ground-based observations in urban areas and national parks leaving a large proportion of the state unmonitored. The use of MODIS aerosol optical depth (AOD) to estimate ground-level particulate pollution concentrations has been successfully demonstrated around the world, and could potentially be used in Alaska. In this work, MODIS AOD measurements at 550 nm were validated against AOD derived from AERONET ground-based sunphotometers in Barrow and Bonanza Creek to determine if MODIS AOD from the Terra and Aqua satellites could be used to estimate ground-level particulate pollution concentrations. The MODIS AOD was obtained from MODIS collection 6 using the dark target Land and Ocean algorithms from 2000 to 2014. MODIS data could only be obtained between the months of April and October; therefore, it could only be validated for those months. Individual and combined Terra and Aqua MODIS data were considered. The results showed that MODIS collection 6 products at 10 km resolution for Terra and Aqua combined are not valid over land but are valid over the ocean. On the other hand, the individual Terra and Aqua MODIS collection 6 AOD products at 10 km resolution are valid over land individually but not when combined. Results also suggest the MODIS collection 6 AOD products at 3 km resolution are valid over land and ocean and perform better over land than the 10-km product. These findings indicate that MODIS collection 6 AOD products can be used quantitatively in air quality applications in Alaska during the summer months.

Aerosol optical depth (AOT) was measured at Xavier University of Louisiana (29.96ᵒ N, 90.11ᵒ W and about 3m above sea level) using a hand-held sun photometer. AOT was measured at two different wavelengths (green at 505nm and red at 625nm) during the period from Sept-2017 to Feb-2018. In this study, we investigate the relationship between AOT and temperature, precipitation, barometric pressure and relative humidity. The maximum monthly average value for green AOT was 0.176 (measured in September) and the minimum monthly value is 0.040 (measured in January). For the red AOT the maximum monthly average value was 0.123 (measured in September) and the minimum is 0.034 (measured in December). The AOT–temperature relationship was predominantly positive, meaning that high AOT values correspond to high temperatures and low AOT values correspond to low temperatures. Relationship between AOT and rainfall is negative, meaning high rainfall averages are associated with low AOT values. AOT and atmospheric pressure have a predominantly negative relationship. The relationship between relative humidity and AOT is a complicated one and is hard to qualify as relative humidity varies very little during the study period.

The increasing use of renewable energies as a source of electricity has led to a fundamental transition of the power supply system. The integration of fluctuating weather-dependent energy sources into the grid already has a major impact on the load flows of the grid. As a result, the interest in forecasting wind and solar radiation with a sufficient accuracy over short time horizons grew. In this study the short-term forecast of the effective cloud albedo based on optical flow estimation methods are investigated. The optical flow method utilized here is TV-L¹ from the open source library OpenCV. This method uses a multi-scale-approach to capture cloud motions on various spatial scales. After the clouds are displaced the solar surface radiation will be calculated with SPECMAGIC NOW which computes the global irradiation spectrally resolved from satellite imagery. Due to a high temporal and spatial resolution of satellite measurements the effective cloud albedo and thus solar radiation can be forecasted from 5 minutes up to 4 hours with a resolution of 0.05°. In the following there will be a brief description of the method for the short-term forecast of the effective cloud albedo. Subsequently evaluation results will be presented and discussed. Finally an outlook of further developments will be given.

Typhoon Durian forming over the Western North Pacific Ocean and entering into the South China Sea (SCS), caused extreme and widespread damages in 2006. In this research, sensitivity analyses on different physical parameterization schemes of the Weather Research and Forecasting Atmospheric Model (WRF-ATM) have been utilized to study typhoon Durian. Model accuracy and performance testing were investigated with different initial conditions during the tropical cyclone simulation in the SCS. The initial and boundary conditions (IBCs) for all experiments were derived from the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), Re-Analysis Interim (ERAI), and the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) with Final (FNL) analysis data compiled through the WRF-ATM model. The sensitivity analysis results indicated a major improvement for the cumulus scheme by using the Grell-Devenyi scheme along with the PBL scheme of Yonsei University, mixed-phase microphysics scheme of the WRF Single Moment 5-class and IBCs for ECMWF-ERAI of TC simulation under the context of Wind-Pressure Relationships. This predicted better track and intensity comparing with these of the Joint Typhoon Warning Center. The results revealed that the TC track and intensity were well simulated by the WSM5-GD combination for the WRF-ATM model with an intensity error of 1.69 hPa for minimum surface level pressure, maximum wind speed of 1.83 knots and average track error of 25 km in 72 hours. The simulations showed that the potential track and intensity error decreased with the delayed IBCs, suggesting that the model simulation is more dependable when the coast is approached by the TC.

Site environments and instrumental characteristics of carbon dioxide (CO₂) measurements operated by local governments in the Kanto Plain, the center of which is Tokyo were summarized for this study. The observation sites were classified into environments of three types: urban, suburban, and woodland. Based on a few decades of accumulated hourly data, the diurnal and seasonal variations of CO₂ concentrations were analyzed as a composite of anomalies from annual means recorded for each site. In urban areas, the highest concentrations appear before midnight in winter. The second peak corresponds to the morning rush hour and strengthening of the inversion layer. Suburban areas can be characterized as having the highest concentration before dawn and the lowest concentration during the daytime in summer in association with the activation of respiration and photosynthesis of vegetation. In these areas, concentration peaks also appear during the morning rush hour. Woodland areas show background features, with the highest concentration in early spring: higher than the global background by about 5 ppmv.

AIUS (Atmospheric Infrared Ultraspectral Sounder) is an infrared occultation spectrometer onboard the Chinese GaoFen-5 satellite, which covers a spectral range of 2.4–13.3 μm (750–4100 cm⁻¹) with a spectral resolution of about 0.02 cm⁻¹. AIUS is designed to measure and study chemical processes of ozone (O₃) and other trace gases in the upper troposphere and stratosphere around Antarctic. In this study, the corresponding retrieval methodology is described. The retrieval simulations based on the simulated spectra of AIUS have been carried out, with a focus on O₃. The relative difference between the retrieved and the true O₃ profiles is within 5% from the 15 km to 70 km and about 10% below 15 km. The corresponding averaging kernels illustrate that the overall retrieval information mainly come from the spectra, not the a priori. The retrieval experiments also demonstrate that the shape of the retrieved profiles resembles the shape of the true profile even if the shape of the a priori profile is different from that of the true profile. Further, we perform the O₃ retrieval from the real ACE-FTS (Atmospheric Chemistry Experiment-Fourier Transform Spectrometer) measurements and compare the results with the official ACE-FTS Level-2 products. Overall, both profiles agree well in the stratosphere where the retrieval sensitivity is high. The relative difference between both profiles is about 15% below 70 km, which may due to the measurement errors and different forward model parameters.

Propagation effects on the Narrow Bipolar Pulses (NBPs) or the radiation fields generated by compact cloud discharges as they propagate over finitely conducting ground are presented. The results are obtained using a sample of NBPs recorded with high time resolution from close thunderstorms in Sri Lanka. The results show that the peak amplitude and the temporal features such as the Full Width at Half Maximum (FWHM), zero crossing time and the time derivative of NBPs can be significantly distorted by propagation effects. For this reason the study of peak amplitudes and temporal features of NBPs and the remote sensing of current parameters of compact cloud discharges should be conducted using NBPs recorded under conditions where the propagation effects are minimal.

Physical reason for the small scale tortuosity observed in sparks and lightning channels is unknown at present. In this paper it is suggested that the small scale tortuosity of the discharge channels is caused by the natural tendency for subsequent leader streamer bursts to avoid each other but at the same time to align as much as possible along the direction of the background electric field. This process will give rise to a discharge channel that re-orients in space during each streamer burst creating the small scale tortuosity.

Advances in remote sensing have led to use of satellite-derived rainfall products to complement the sparse rain gauge data. Although globally derived and some regional bias corrected, these products often show large discrepancies with ground measurements attributed to local and external factors that require systematic consideration. Decreasing rain gauge network however inhibits continuous validation of these products. We propose to deal with this problem by the use of Bayesian approach to merge the existing historical rain gauge information to create a consistent satellite rainfall data that can be used for climate studies. Monthly Bayesian bias correction is applied to the Climate Hazards Group Infrared Precipitation with Stations (CHIRPS v2) data to reduce systematic errors using a corresponding gridded (0.05°) rain gauge data over East Africa for a period of 33 (1981–2013) years of which 22 years are utilized to derive error fields which are then applied to an independent CHIRPS data for 11 years for validation. The bias correction is spatially and temporally assessed during the rainfall wet months of March-May (MAM), June-August (JJA) and October–December (OND) in East Africa. Results show significant reduction of systematic errors at both monthly and yearly scales and harmonization of their cumulative distributions. Monthly statistics showed a reduction of RMSD (29–56)% and MAE (28–60)% and an increase of correlations (2–32) %, while yearly ones showed reductions of RMSD (9-23)%, and MAE (7–27)% and increase of correlations (4–77)% for MAM months, reduction of RMSD (15–35)% and MAE (16–41)% and increase in correlations (5–16)% for JJA months, and reduction of RMSD (3–35)% and MAE (9–32)% and increase of correlations (3–65)% for OND months. Systematic errors of corrected data were influenced by local processes especially over Lake Victoria and high elevated areas. Large-scale circulations induced errors were mainly during JJA and OND rainfall seasons and were reduced by the separation of anomalous years during training. The proposed approach is recommended for generating long-term data for climate studies where consistencies of errors can be assumed.

General characteristics of K changes together with their fine structure associated with ground flashes in Sri Lanka in the tropics are presented. It is found that on average there are about 2 K changes associated with each return stroke. Analysis of the fine structure of the K changes shows that the K change is a chaotic pulse burst. Some of these chaotic pulse bursts start and the others end as a regular pulse bursts. Sometimes the chaotic part occurs in between two regular pulse bursts. This is in agreement with the recent published results that claim that chaotic pulse bursts are a random superposition of regular pulse bursts. The results show that the small step fields identified in the literature as K changes are the static fields associated with these pulse bursts.

Two extreme wind-driven wildfire events impacted northern and southern California in late 2017 leading to 46 fatalities and thousands of structures lost. This study describes the meteorological and climatological factors that drove and enabled these wildfire events and quantifies the rarity of such conditions over the observational record. Both extreme wildfire events featured fire-weather metrics that were unprecedented in the observational record in addition to a sequence of climatic conditions that preconditioned fuels. The North Bay fires that affected portions of northern California in early October occurred coincident with strong downslope winds. The vast majority of the fires’ devastating effects and acres burned occurred overnight and within the first twelve hours of ignition. By contrast, the southern California fires of December were characterized by the longest Santa Ana wind event on record and included the largest wildfire in California’s history. Both fire events occurred following an exceptionally wet winter that was preceded by the drought of record in California. Fuels were further preconditioned as the warmest summer and autumn on record occurred in northern and southern California, respectively. Accelerated curing of fuels coupled with the delayed onset of autumn precipitation allowed for critically low dead fuel moisture leading up to the foehn wind events. Fire weather conditions were well forecasted several days prior to the fire. However, the rarity of fire-weather conditions that occurred in the wildland urban interface, along with other societal factors were key contributors to wildfire impacts to communities.

Wildland fires are responsible for large socio-economic impacts. Fires affect the environment, damage structures, threaten lives, cause health issues, and involve large suppression costs. These impacts can be mitigated via accurate fire spread forecast to inform the incident management team. We show that a fire forecast system based on a numerical weather prediction (NWP) model coupled with a wildland fire behavior model can provide this forecast. This is illustrated with the Chimney Tops II wildland fire responsible for large socio-economic impacts. The system is run at high horizontal resolution (111 m) over the region affected by the fire to provide a fine representation of the terrain and fuel heterogeneities and explicitly resolve atmospheric turbulence. Our findings suggest that one can use the high spatial resolution winds, fire spread and smoke forecast to minimize the adverse impacts of wildland fires.

The Kabul River basin (KRB) of Afghanistan, a lifeline of around 10 million people, has multiplicity of governance, management and development related challenges leading to inequity, inadequacy and unreliability of irrigation water distribution. Prior to any uplifting intervention, there is a need to evaluate the performance of irrigation system on long term basis to identify the existing bottlenecks. Although there are several indicators used for the performance evaluation of the irrigation schemes, but we used the coefficient of variation (CV) of actual evapotranspiration (ETa) in space (basin, sub-basin, and provincial level), relative evapotranspiration (RET) and temporal CV of RET to assess the equity, adequacy and reliability of water distribution respectively, from 2003 to 2013. The ETa was estimated through surface energy balance system (SEBS) algorithm and the ETa estimates were validated using advection aridity (AA) method with R2 value of 0.81 and 0.77 at Nawabad and Sultanpur stations respectively. The global land data assimilation system (GLDAS) and moderate-resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS) products were used as main inputs to the SEBS. Results show that mean seasonal sub-based RET values during summer (May – September) (0.37 ± 0.06) and winter (October – April) (0.40 ± 0.08) are below the target values (RET ≥0.75) during 2003-2013. The CV of mean ETa within sub-basins and provinces for the entire study period has equitable distribution of water from October-January (0.09±0.04) whereas the highest inequity (0.24±0.08) in water distribution is during early summer. The range of the CV of mean ETa (0.04-0.06) on monthly and seasonal basis shows the unreliability of water supplies in several provinces or sub-basins. The analysis of temporal CV of mean RET highlights unreliable water supplies across the entire basin. The maximum ETa during the study period was estimated for Shamal sub-basin (552±43mm) while among provinces Kunar experienced the highest ETa (544±39mm). This study highlights the dire need for interventions to improve the irrigation performance in time and space. The proposed methodology can be used as a framework for monitoring and implementing the water distribution plans in future.

Stratocumulus (Sc) is the most common cloud type in China. Sc clouds may or may not be accompanied by various types of precipitation that are representative of different macro- and microphysical characteristics. The finely resolved CloudSat data products are used in this study to quantitatively investigate the macro- and microphysical characteristics of precipitating and non-precipitating Sc (PS and NPS, respectively) clouds over Eastern China (EC). Based on statistical information extracted from the CloudSat data, Sc clouds are highly likely to occur alone, in association with liquid precipitation, or in association with drizzle over 25.65% of EC. The cloud bases of NPS clouds are higher than those of PS clouds, although the latter display higher cloud top heights and thicker cloud thicknesses. The spatial distributions of microphysical characteristics differ between PS and NPS clouds. The magnitudes of microphysical characteristics in NPS clouds are relatively small and decrease with height, whereas the magnitudes of microphysical characteristics in PS clouds are relatively large and peak in response to certain circulation patterns and over certain terrain. The variations in microphysical characteristics in Sc clouds with height and contoured frequency by altitude diagrams (CFADs) of radar reflectivity may indicate that different microphysical processes operate in PS and NPS clouds. In NPS clouds, hydrometeor particles accumulate by coalescence as they rise; once the particles are too large to be supported by updrafts, the cloud droplets form raindrops. In PS clouds, raindrops increase continuously in size via collision-coalescence processes as they fall. The levels between 2.5 and 3.0 km represent the space where particles grow most rapidly. Particles are affected by updrafts and accumulate at levels between 2.5 and 1.0 km as height decreases.

Bonfire night is a worldwide phenomenon given to numerous annual celebrations characterised by bonfires and fireworks. Since Thailand has no national ambient air quality standards for metal particulates, it is important to investigate the impacts of particulate injections on elevations of air pollutants and ecological health impacts resulting from firework displays. In this investigation, Pb and Ba were considered potential firework tracers because their concentrations were significantly higher during the episode and lower than/comparable with minimum detection limits during other periods, indicating that their elevated concentrations were principally due to pyrotechnic displays. Pb/Ca, Pb/Al, Pb/Mg, and Pb/Cu can be used to pin-point emissions from firework displays. Air mass backward trajectories (72 h) from the Hybrid Single-Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory (HYSPLIT) model indicated that areas east and north-east of the study site were the main sources for the air transportation. Although the combined risk associated with levels of Pb, Cr, Co, Ni, Zn, As, Cd, V, and Mn was far below the standards mentioned in international guidelines, the lifetime cancer risks associated with As and Cr levels exceeded US-EPA guidelines, and may expose inhabitants of surrounding areas of Bangkok to elevated cancer risk.

As natural scale-models for community environmental odor issues, these odorant prioritization results illustrate an important consideration: … ‘with respect to focusing an environmental odor issue, it is possible to look too closely at the source’… Although simple odor dilution, as measured by odor concentration and intensity, certainly occurs during downwind dispersive migration from the source, these authors propose that the term dynamic dilution is limiting with respect to environmental odor impact. The results presented herein suggest that the odor character from an environmental source can vary dramatically, depending upon the distance of the human receptors from that source. It is further suggested that the process of downwind environmental odorant prioritization can best be characterized as a rolling unmasking effect or RUE. The RUE is exhibited by the masking odors nearest the source sequentially ‘falling away’ with distance from the source, revealing a succession of increasingly simplified odor characteristic and composition. Because of scaling factors and meteorological unpredictability, the logistics involved in carrying-out odorant prioritization studies can be very challenging when targeting large-scale odor sources. However, for these authors’ illustrative purposes, these challenges were reduced significantly by selecting natural, ‘scale-model’ odor-sources which represented significant reductions in the primary scaling factors; especially, reductions in the size of the odor sources and the distance of their downwind reach. Driven by odorant prioritization and the RUE, extremes of odor simplification-upon-dilution were demonstrated for two Central Texas plant varieties, prairie verbena and virginia pepperweed. Their ‘odor frontal boundaries’ were shown to be dominated by single, character-defining odorants; prairie verbena presenting with a p-cresol dominated ‘barnyard’ odor and virginia pepperweed with a benzyl mercaptan dominated ‘burnt match’ odor. Similar odor simplification was also shown for the South American prehensile-tailed porcupine (i.e., pt porcupine); its downwind ‘odor frontal boundary’ dominated by two potent, character-defining odorants (i.e. as yet unidentified): (1) ‘onion’/‘body odor’ odorant #1 and (2) ‘onion’/‘grilled’ odorant #2. In contrast to their outer-boundary simplicities, each of these sources also presented, at the source, with odor compositions reflecting considerable complexity and corrresponding composite odor characters that were distinctly different from those reflected at their respective ‘odor frontal boundaries’.  

A controlled ammonia (NH₃) release experiment was performed at a grassland site to quantify the effect of dry deposition, at the field scale between the source and the receptors (NH₃ measurement locations), on the estimates of emission rates by means of inverse dispersion modelling. NH₃ was released for 3 hours at a constant rate of Q = 6.29 mg s⁻¹ from a grid of 36 orifices spread over an area of 250 m². The increase in line-integrated NH₃ concentration was measured with open-path optical miniDOAS devices at different locations downwind of the artificial source. Using a backward Lagrangian stochastic (bLS) dispersion model (bLSmodelR), the fraction of the modelled release rate to the emitted NH₃ (Q_bLS/Q) was calculated from the measurements of the individual instruments. Q_bLS/Q was found to be systematically lower than 1, on average between 0.69 and 0.91, depending on the location of the receptor. We hypothesized that NH₃ dry deposition to grass and soil surfaces was the main factor responsible for the observed depletion of NH₃ between source and receptor. A dry deposition algorithm based on a deposition velocity approach was included in the bLS modelling. Model deposition velocities were evaluated from a ‘big‑leaf’ canopy resistance analogy. Canopy resistances (generally termed Rc) that provided Q_bLS/Q = 1 ranged from 75 to 290 s m⁻¹, showing that surface removal of NH₃ by dry deposition can plausibly explain the original underestimation of Q_bLS/Q. The inclusion of a dry deposition process in dispersion modelling is crucial for emission estimates, which are based on concentration measurements of depositing tracers downwind of homogeneous area sources or heterogeneously distributed hot spots, such as e.g. urine patches on pastures in the case of NH₃.

Building more energy efficient and sustainable urban areas that will both mitigate the effect of climate change and adapt for the future climate, requires the development new tools and methods that can help urban planners, architect and communities achieve this goal. In the current study, we designed a workflow that links different methodologies developed separately, to derive the energy consumption of a university school campus for the future. Three different scenarios for typical future years (2039, 2069, 2099) were run as well as a renovation scenario (Minergie-P). We analyse the impact of climate change on the heating and cooling demand of the buildings and determined the relevance of the accounting of the local climate in this particular context. The results from the simulations showed that in the future there will a constant decrease in the heating demand while for the cooling demand there will be a significant increase. It was further demonstrated that when the local climate was taken into account there was an even higher rise in the cooling demand but also that the proposed renovations were not sufficient to design resilient buildings. We then discuss the implication of this work on the simulation of building energy consumption at the neighbourhood scale and the impact of future local climate on energy system design. We finally give a few perspective regarding improved urban design and possible pathways for the future urban areas.

Building more energy efficient and sustainable urban areas that will both mitigate the effect of climate change and adapt for the future climate, requires the development new tools and methods that can help urban planners, architect and communities achieve this goal. In the current study, we designed a workflow that links different methodologies developed separately, to derive the energy consumption of a university school campus for the future. Three different scenarios for typical future years (2039, 2069, 2099) were run as well as a renovation scenario (Minergie-P). We analyse the impact of climate change on the heating and cooling demand of the buildings and determined the relevance of the accounting of the local climate in this particular context. The results from the simulations showed that in the future there will a constant decrease in the heating demand while for the cooling demand there will be a significant increase. It was further demonstrated that when the local climate was taken into account there was an even higher rise in the cooling demand but also that the proposed renovations were not sufficient to design resilient buildings. We then discuss the implication of this work on the simulation of building energy consumption at the neighbourhood scale and the impact of future local climate on energy system design. We finally give a few perspective regarding improved urban design and possible pathways for the future urban areas.

Climate variability and change has been found to be one of the factors that affect economies leading to food insecurity in various parts of the world. Kenya is no exception. This study looks at how climate variability has contributed to food insecurity in Kisii County, Kenya. The objectives of this study is therefore to, (i) to examine the rainfall and temperature trends in Kisii County for a period of approximately 30 years, (ii) to examine the effect of climate variability on food production and (iii) to assess the perception of local farmers on weather and climate information, (iv) to evaluate the coping strategies adopted at to bridge the gap on food deficit at different household level and (v) to assess the nutritional status of children and the elderly. The study was conducted in two sub-counties of Kisii County; Marani and Bomachoge Chache. The data used was mainly rainfall and temperature data from meteorological stations and sample data gathered from selected groups. The study population comprised of children between 6 months and 59 months, household heads, elderly people and agricultural officers. Purposive sampling was used to select agricultural officers while multistage sampling was used to select respondents at household level. Data was collected by use of a pre-tested questionnaire. The MUAC tape was used to collect nutritional status of children while BMI data was obtained from elderly people. Mann Kendall statistic was used to determine whether the trend of rainfall and temperature observed is significant while Chi-square test was used to determine whether the coping strategies observed varied significantly at household level. From the analysis, rainfall has not shown any significant change in Kisii County while temperature trend has been significantly increasing over the years at 95% confidence level. This could explain the observed reduction in river levels. Analysis of crop production and price trends of major food crops in Kisii County showed a decreasing trend of food production leading to increase in price over the years. This meant that farmers could not produce enough to take them to the next harvesting season making farmers to adopt different coping strategies at household level which differed significantly according to Chi-Square test. Malnutrition status of both elderly people above 59 years and children between 6-59 months were similar with 23% of both children/elderly being severely malnourished/malnourished. This study has only looked at climatic factors such as rainfall and temperature. Other aspects such as depth of underground water, ph level of soil and the effects of land fragmentation also need to be looked at. This study is important to both farmers in choosing the right crop to plant, and policy makers and planners in formulating the best mitigation and intervention strategies for Kisii County food insecurity problem. This will further contribute to national efforts towards achievement of vision 2030.

There is a perception among the inhabitants of the Aburrá Valley Region, that this heavily populated region, situated in the Andean mountains of Colombia, has been suffering large temperature elevations in the last years, especially in the last decade. To give perspective about this issue, the authors have gone through the available information about temperature changes in three meteorological stations in the region and have correlated it with a set of variables of urban, climatic and energetic nature, with the intention of developing an approximate model to understand the temperature changes. Changes in the mean temperature, based on the linear correlation of the data were estimated on 0.47oC for the 20 years between 1995 and 2015; the study showed that 60% of change was found to be related to local human activities and 40% was attributed to the impact of global warming. For the local influences some practical mitigation actions are proposed, related to improve the energy management and paying more attention to the temperature changes trough improvements in the number and capability of sampling stations in the urban air and in the river, which serve as clear indicators of the changes and the effect of any mitigation measures.

We examine how observations can be used to evaluate an air quality analysis by verifying against passive observations (i.e. cross-validation) that are not used to create the analysis and we compare these verifications to those made against the same set of (active) observations that were used to generate the analysis. The results show that both active and passive observations can be used to evaluate of first moment metrics (e.g. bias) but only passive observations are useful to evaluate second moment metrics such as variance of observed-minus-analysis and correlation between observations and analysis. We derive a set of diagnostics based on passive observation–minus-analysis residuals and we show that the true analysis error variance can be estimated, without relying on any statistical optimality assumption. This diagnostic is used to obtain near optimal analyses that are then used to evaluate the analysis error using several different methods. We compare the estimates according to the method of Hollingsworth Lonnberg, Desroziers, a diagnostic we introduce, and the perceived analysis error computed from the analysis scheme, to conclude that as long as the analysis is optimal, all estimates agrees within a certain error margin. The analysis error variance at passive observation sites is also obtained.

Philippines as an archipelago and tropical country, which is situated near the Pacific ocean, faces uncertain rainfall intensities. This makes environmental, agricultural and economic systems affected by precipitation difficult to manage. Time series analysis of Philippine rainfall pattern has been previously done, but there is no study investigating its probability distribution. Modeling the Philippine rainfall using probability distributions is essential, especially in managing risks and designing insurance products. Here, daily and cumulative rainfall data (January 1961 - August 2016) from 28 PAGASA weather stations are fitted to probability distributions. Moreover, the fitted distributions are examined for invariance under subsets of the rainfall data set. We observe that the Gamma distribution is a suitable fit for the daily up to the ten-day cumulative rainfall data. Our results can be used in agriculture, especially in forecasting claims in weather index-based insurance.

There is a perception among the inhabitants of the Aburrá Valley Region, that this heavily populated region, situated in the Andean mountains of Colombia, has been suffering large temperature raises in the last years, especially in the last decade. To give perspective about this issue, the authors have gone through the available information about temperature changes in three meteorological stations in the region and have correlated it with a set of variables of urban, climatic and energetic nature, with the intention of developing an approximate model to understand the temperature changes. Changes in the mean temperature, based on the linear tendencies, were estimated on 0.47ºC for the 20 years between 1995 and 2015; 60% of change was found to be related to local human activities and 40% was attributed to the impact of global warming.

Biogenic emissions affect the urban air quality as they are ozone and SOA precursors and should be taken into account when applying photochemical pollution models. The present study presents an estimation of the magnitude of Non-Methane Volatile Organic Compounds emissions (NMVOCs) emitted by vegetation over Greece. The methodology is based on computation performed with the aid of a Geographic Information System (GIS) and theoretical equations in order to develop an emission inventory on a 6x6  spatial resolution, in a temporal resolution of 1hr covering one year (2016). For this purpose, a variety of input data was used: improved satellite land-use data, land-use specific emission potentials, foliar biomass densities, temperature and solar radiation data. Hourly, daily and annual isoprene, monoterpenes and other volatile organic compounds (OVOCs) were estimated. In the area under study, the annual biogenic emissions were estimated up to 472 kt, consisting of 46.6% isoprene, 28% monoterpenes and 25.4% OVOCs. Results delineate an annual cycle with increasing values from March to April, while maximum emissions were observed from May to September, followed by a decrease from October to January.

The study investigates the role of NWP filtering for the remote sensing of Cumulonimbus Clouds (Cbs) by implementation of 14 different experiments, covering Central Europe. These experiments compiles different stability filter settings as well as the use of different channels for the InfraRed (IR) brightness temperatures. As stability filter parameters from Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) are used. The brightness temperature information results from the IR SEVIRI instrument on-board of Meteosat Second Generation satellite and enables the detection of very cold and high clouds close to the tropopause. The satellite only approaches (no NWP filtering) result in the detection of Cbs with a relative high probability of detection, but unfortunately combined with a large False Alarm Rate (FAR), leading to a Critical Success Index (CSI) below 60 %. The false alarms results from other types of very cold and high clouds. It is shown that the false alarms can be significantly decreased by application of an appropriate NWP stability filter, leading to the increase of CSI to about 70 % . A brief review and reflection of the literature clarifies that the this function of the NWP filter can not be replaced by MSG IR spectroscopy. Thus, NWP filtering is strongly recommended to increase the quality of satellite based Cb detection. Further, it has been shown that the well established convective available potential energy (CAPE) and the convection index (KO) works well as stability filter.

Mercury is a toxic pollutant emitted from both natural sources and through human activities. A global interest in atmospheric mercury has risen ever since the discovery of the Minamata disease in 1956. Properties of gaseous elemental mercury enable long range transport which can cause pollution even in pristine environments. Total gaseous mercury (TGM) was measured from winter 2016 to spring 2017 over the Baltic Sea. A Tekran 2357A mercury analyser was installed aboard the research and icebreaking vessel Oden for the purpose of continuous measurements of gaseous mercury in ambient air. Measurements were performed during a campaign along the Swedish east coast and in the Bothnian Bay near Lulea during the icebreaking season. Data was evaluated from Gothenburg using a plotting software and back trajectories for air masses were calculated. The TGM average of 1.365 ± 0.054 ng/m³ during winter and 1.288 ± 0.140 ng/m³ during spring was calculated as well as a total average of 1.362 ± 0.158 ng/m³. Back trajectories showed a possible correlation of anthropogenic sources elevating the mercury background level in some areas. There were also indications of depleted air, i.e., air with lower concentrations than average, being transported from the Arctic to northern Sweden resulting in a drop in TGM levels.

We present a general theory of estimation of analysis error covariances based on cross-validation as well as a geometric interpretation of the method. In particular we use the variance of passive observation–minus-analysis residuals and show that the true analysis error variance can be estimated, without relying on the optimality assumption. This approach is used to obtain near optimal analyses that are then used to evaluate the air quality analysis error using several different methods at active and passive observation sites. We compare the estimates according to the method of Hollingsworth-Lönnberg, Desroziers et al., a new diagnostic we developed, and the perceived analysis error computed from the analysis scheme, to conclude that, as long as the analysis is near optimal, all estimates agree within a certain error margin.

Accurate and timely rainfall prediction enhances productivity and can aid proper planning in sectors such as agriculture, health, transport and water resources. This study is aimed at improving rainfall prediction using ensemble methods. It first assesses the performance of six convective schemes (Kain–Fritsch (KF); Betts–Miller–Janji´c (BMJ); Grell–Fretas (GF); Grell 3D ensemble (G3); New–Tiedke (NT) and Grell–Devenyi (GD)) using the root mean square error (RMSE) and mean error (ME) focusing on the March–May 2013 rainfall period over Uganda. 18 ensemble members are generated from the three best performing convective schemes (i.e. KF, GF & G3). The performance of three ensemble methods (i.e. ensemble mean (EM); ensemble mean analogue (EMA) and multi–member analogue ensemble (MAEM)) is also analyzed using the RMSE and ME. The EM presented a smaller RMSE compared to individual schemes (EM:10.02; KF:23.96; BMJ:26.04; GF:25.85; G3:24.07; NT:29.13 & GD:26.27) and a better bias (EM:-1.28; KF:-1.62; BMJ:-4.04; GF:-3.90; G3:-3.62; NT:-5.41 & GD:-4.07). The EMA and MAEM presented 13 out of 21 stations & 17 out of 21 stations respectively with smaller RMSE compared to EM thus demonstrating additional improvement in predictive performance. The MAEM is a new approach proposed and described in the study.

Mineral dust is one of the most important aerosol in mass over the world, affecting health and dynamics. This aerosol is mainly emitted over arid areas but may be long-range transported, impacting the local budget of air quality in many cities. While models were extensively used to study a single specific event, or making a global analysis at coarse resolution, the goal of our study is to simultaneously focus on several areas - Europe, North America, Central Asia, East China and the Caribbean area - for a one month period, March 2014, avoiding any parameter fitting to better simulate a given dust outbreak. The simulation is performed for the first time with the hemispheric version of the CHIMERE model, with a horizontal resolution of 10km. In this study, an overview of several simultaneous dust outbreaks over the north hemisphere is proposed to assess the capability of such modelling tools to predict dust pollution events. A quantitative and qualitative evaluation of the most striking episodes is presented with comparisons to satellite data, ground based Particulate Matter and calcium measurements. Despite some overestimation of dust concentrations far from emission areas, the model is able to simulate the timing of the arrival of dust outbreaks on observational sites. For instance, several spectacular dust storms in the US and China are perfectly captured by the models. The high resolution allows to better describe and understand the orographic effects and the long-range transport of dust plumes.

A new approach to the measurement with elastic lidar of depolarization produced by atmospheric aerosols is presented. The system uses two different telescopes: one for depolarization measurements and another for total-power measurements. The system architecture and principle of operation are described. The first experimental results are also presented, corresponding to a collection of atmospheric conditions over the city of Barcelona.

UV SO₂ cameras have become a common tool to measure and monitor SO₂-emission-rates, mostly from volcanoes but also from anthropogenic sources (e.g. power plants or ships). In the past years, the analysis of UV SO₂ camera data has seen many improvements. As a result, for many of the required analysis steps, several alternatives exist today. This inspired the development of Pyplis, an open-source software toolbox written in Python 2.7, which aims to unify the most prevalent methods from literature within a single, cross-platform analysis framework. Pyplis comprises a vast collection of algorithms relevant for the analysis of UV SO₂ camera data. These include several routines to retrieve plume background radiances as well as routines for cell and DOAS based camera calibration. The latter includes two independent methods to identify the DOAS field-of-view within the camera images. Plume velocities can be retrieved using an optical flow algorithm as well as signal cross-correlation. Furthermore, Pyplis includes a routine to perform a first order correction of the signal dilution effect. All required geometrical calculations are performed within a 3D model environment allowing for distance retrievals to plume and local terrain features on a pixel basis. SO₂-emission-rates can be retrieved simultaneously for an arbitrary number of plume intersections. Pyplis has been extensively and successfully tested using data from several field campaigns. Here, the main features are introduced using a dataset obtained at Mt. Etna, Italy on 16 September 2015.