With the rising trends in elderly populations around the world, there is a growing interest in understanding how climate sensitivity is related to their thermal perception. Therefore, we analyzed the associations between mortality in the elderly due to cardiovascular (CVD) and respiratory diseases (RD) and meteorological variables, for three cities in the State of São Paulo, Brazil: Campos do Jordão, Ribeirão Preto and Santos, from 1996 to 2017. We applied the Autoregressive Model Integrated with Moving Average (ARIMA) and the Principal Component Analysis (PCA) in order to evaluate statistical associations. Results showed CVD as a major cause of mortality, particularly in the cold period, when a high mortality rate is also observed due to RD. The mortality rate was higher in Campos do Jordão and lower in Santos (and intermediate values in Ribeirão Preto). Campos do Jordão results indicate an increased probability of mortality from CVD and RD due to lower temperatures. In Ribeirão Preto, the lower relative humidity may be related to the increase in CVD and RD deaths. This study emphasizes that, even among subtropical climates, there are significant differences. Therefore, this can assist decision makers in the implementation of mitigating and adaptive measures.

The South African Weather Service (SAWS) manages an in-situ solar irradiance radiometric network of 13 stations and a very dense sunshine recording network; located in all six macro-climate zones of South Africa. A sparsely distributed radiometric network and over a landscape with dynamic climate and weather shifts is inadequate for solar energy studies and applications. Therefore, there is a need to develop mathematical models to estimate solar irradiation for a multitude of diverse climates. In this study, the annual regression coefficients, a and b, of the Ångström-Prescott (AP) model that can be used to estimate global horizontal irradiance from observed sunshine hours were calibrated and validated with observed station data. The AP regression coefficients were calibrated and validated for each of the six macro-climate zones of South Africa using the observation data that spans 2013 to 2019. The predictive effectiveness of the calibrated AP model coefficients was evaluated by comparing estimated and observed daily global horizontal irradiance. The maximum annual relative Mean Bias Error (rMBE) was 0.371 %, relative Mean Absolute Error (rMAE) was 0.745 %, relative Root Mean Square Error (rRMSE) was 0.910 % and the worst-case correlation coefficient (R2) was 0.910. The statistical validation metrics results show that there is a strong correlation and linear relation between observed and estimated solar radiation values. The AP model coefficients calculated in this study can be used with quantitative confidence in estimating daily GHI data at locations in South Africa where the daily observation sunshine duration data is available.

The coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic caused by spreading rapidly a severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) has imposed a unique situation for the humanity. Sao Paulo has reported 124,105 confirmed cases of COVID-19 and 5,623 deaths up to June 14th, being considered the epicenter of the pandemic in Brazil and in South America. Due to the measures for social distancing, there was a drop in the air pollution concentration in Sao Paulo. Starting on March 16th, 2020, we broke 90 days of social distancing into 13 weeks and compared to an equivalent period in 2019. We investigated the air quality improvement during the quarantine period and compared the associated avoided deaths to COVID-19 burden deaths. Nitrogen dioxide (NO₂) was the best indicator of air quality in the analyzed weeks, since its reduction reached 58 %. Our study showed that the 5,623 deaths occurred during the analyzed weeks of quarantine represents an economic health loss of US$ 10.5 billion. In opposite, we observed a significant air quality improvement due to pollutants concentrations’ reductions during the analyzed weeks. Considering PM₁₀, PM_2.5 and NO₂, the decrease of concentration levels respectively avoided 78, 337 and 387 premature deaths and prevented up to US$ 1.5 billion on health costs. These results highlight the importance of continuing to enforce existing air pollution regulations and measures to protect human health both during and after COVID-19 pandemic.

The availability of high quality surface observations of precipitation and volume observations by polarimetric operational radars make it possible to constrain, evaluate and validate numerical models with a wide variety of microphysical schemes. In this article, a novel particle-based Monte-Carlo microphysical model (called “McSnow”) is used to simulate the outer rain bands of Hurricane Dorian which traversed the densely instrumented precipitation research facility operated by NASA at Wallops Island, Virginia. The rain bands showed steady stratiform vertical profiles with radar signature of dendritic growth layers near −15 °C and peak reflectivity in the bright band of 55 dBZ along with polarimetric signatures of wet snow with sizes inferred to exceed 15 mm. A 2D-video disdrometer measured frequent occurrences of large drops >5 mm and combined with an optical array probe the drop size distribution was well-documented in spite of uncertainty for drops <0.5 mm due to high wind gusts and turbulence. The 1D McSnow control run and four numerical “experiments” were conducted and compared with observations. One of the main findings is that even at the moderate rain rate of 10 mm/h collisional breakup is essential for the shape of the drop size distribution.

The Geostationary Environment Monitoring Spectrometer (GEMS) onboard the Geostationary Korean Multi-Purpose Satellite 2B was successfully launched in February 2020. GEMS is a hyperspectral spectrometer measuring solar irradiance and Earth radiance in the range of 300 to 500 nm. This paper introduces the spectral calibration algorithm for GEMS, which uses a nonlinear least-squares approach. To assess the performance of the algorithm, sensitivity tests for a series of spectral parameters such as shift, spectral range for fitting, signal-to-noise ratio, spectral response function (SRF), and reference spectrum have been conducted. To improve the assessment, a synthetic GEMS spectrum using the prelaunch GEMS SRF is adopted here. The test results show that the required accuracy (0.002 nm) is achievable for the expected uncertainties of the parameters except for the SRF and the choice of high-resolution reference spectrum, which degrade the algorithm performance by an order magnitude. To mitigate the sensitivity to SRF, retrieval of in-orbit SRF using an analytic function is suggested. Finally, a few candidates for the high-resolution solar reference spectrum are prepared for testing by the instrument during in-orbit tests.

The mass concentration of particulate matter (PM) has been systematically used in epidemiological studies as exposure indicator, to relate airborne concentrations with a wide variety of human health effects, which can be hardly explained by using this single parameter. In fact, PM is a “particle cocktail” that includes a complex mixture of compounds with a wide range of sizes, chemical compositions and emission sources. Current research hypothesizes that many of the adverse health effects are derived from oxidative stress in biological systems caused by the deposition of PM into the lungs. This emerging hypothesis is called the oxidative stress paradigm. In this commentary article we analize how this new paradigm could help to answer the as-of-yet unanswered questions related to the mechanism of action of PM pollution on human health. Acellular oxidative potential (OP) assays have been emerged as a promising approach to quantify the PM potential to induce oxidative stress and to relate it with the chemical composition and size distribution of PM. Recent researches have shown that the OP is related to the presence of metals, organic carbon, polyaromatic hydrocarbons and quinones. However, the association between PM and particle-induced toxicity is still largely unknown. Therefore, additional research is needed to identify the specific PM characteristic(s), such as its specific size, emission source or chemical content, which contribute the most to its redox activity. Thus, the OP measurements provide information that allows us to evaluate and integrate the toxic potential of PM in a unique parameter, whose relationships with emission sources, size distribution and/or chemical composition should be faced in the near future.

The boundary layer height (BLH) distinguishes the interface between the lower and free atmosphere, which is a key variable in numerical simulation, aerosol, and environmental pollution studies. Thus, the goal of this work is to propose a novel method conjuncting with numerical regularization to analyze climate characteristics of the marine boundary layer height (MBLH) using 2007-2011 GPS-RO data from the COSMIC mission. While traditionally, the difference method has been used to achieve this aim, herein, we propose an innovative method, in which the bending angle profile gradient was calculated using the numerical regulation method where the regulation parameters are determined by the double-parameter model function method. Then, the MBLH was determined by employing the maximum gradient method to ascertain the height corresponding to the smallest gradient. The results show a correlation between currents and the MBLH—a relationship that has not been previously demonstrated. A low MBLH is associated with seasons and regions where cold ocean currents are prevailing; whereas a high MBLH is observed in the seasons and places where warm currents are prevailing. This correlation was validated by comparing the obtained results with different occultation data—i.e., atmprf and echprf—which also established that atmprf is more sensitive to convective cloud top capture. In seas with active convection, the armprf calculated bending angle is higher than that from echprf. Subsequently, the standard deviation was used to express the MBLH confidence level. The results show that the MBLH standard deviation is highest in low latitudes and lowest in the middle and high latitudes. Furthermore, we analyzed the interannual MBLH variation trend, which displayed a seasonal variation and spatial distribution corresponding with the current and subsolar point. Finally, we conducted a case study in the South China Sea, and identified a distinctive seasonal change and downward trend.

In-cloud ice mass accretion on wind turbines is a common challenge faced by energy companies operating in cold climates. On-shore wind farms in Scandinavia are often located in regions near patches of forest, the heterogeneity length scales of which are often less than the resolution of many numerical weather prediction (NWP) models. The representation of these forests--including the cloud water response to surface roughness and albedo effects related to them--must therefore be parameterized in NWP models used as meteorological input in ice prediction systems, resulting in an uncertainty that is poorly understood and to present date not quantified. The sensitivity of ice accretion forecasts to the subgrid representation of forests is examined in this study. A single column version of the HARMONIE-AROME 3D NWP model is used to determine the sensitivity of the forecast of ice accretion on wind turbines to the subgrid forest fraction. Single column simulations of a variety of icing cases at a location in northern Sweden were examined in order to investigate the impact of vegetation cover on ice accretion in varying levels of solar insulation and wind magnitudes. In mid-winter cases, the wind speed response to surface roughness was the primary driver of the vegetation effect on ice accretion. In early season cases, the cloud water response to surface albedo effects plays a secondary role in the impact of in-cloud ice accretion, with the wind response to surface roughness remaining the primary driver for the surface vegetation impact on icing. Two different surface boundary layer (SBL) forest canopy subgrid parameterizations were tested in this study that feature different methods for calculating near-surface profiles of wind, temperature, and moisture, with the ice mass accretion again following the wind response to surface vegetation between both of these schemes.

The world witnessed one of the largest lockdowns in the history of mankind ever, spread over months in an attempt to contain the contact spreading of the novel coronavirus induced COVID-19. As billions around the world stood witness to the staggered lockdown measures, a storm brewed up in the urns of the rather hot Bay of Bengal (BoB) in the Indian Ocean realm. When Thailand proposed the name “Amphan” (pronounced as “Um-pun” meaning ‘the sky’), way back in 2004, little did they realize that it was the christening of the 1st super cyclone (Category-5 hurricane) of the century in this region and the strongest on the globe this year. At the peak, Amphan clocked wind speeds of 168 mph (Joint Typhoon Warning Center) with the pressure drop to 925 h.Pa. What started as a depression in the southeast BoB at 00 UTC on 16th May 2020 developed into a Super Cyclone in less than 48 hours and finally made landfall in the evening hours of 20th May 2020 through the Sundarbans between West Bengal and Bangladesh. Did the impact of the COVID-19 induced lockdown drive an otherwise typical pre-monsoon tropical depression into a super cyclone?

The non-secular anomalies in carbon dioxide measurements at Mauna Loa are compared to the non-secular anomalies in the HadCRUT4 median global temperature from 1991 to 2020. A strong and significant Pearson's product-moment correlation is found between carbon dioxide anomalies and global temperature anomaly, indicating that the correlation is an actual characteristic of the atmosphere. But more important from a numerical weather prediction perspective, this result indicates that carbon dioxide anomalies can have no skills as temperature precursors on short time scales.

Background: There are major air pollution monitoring gaps in sub-Saharan Africa. Developing capacity in the region to conduct air monitoring in the region can help estimate exposure to air pollution for epidemiology research. The purpose of our study is to develop a land use regression (LUR) model using low-cost air quality sensors developed by a research group in Uganda (AirQo). Methods: Using these low-cost sensors, we collected continuous measurements of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) between May 1, 2019 and February 29, 2020 at 22 monitoring sites across urban municipalities of Uganda. We compared average monthly PM2.5 concentrations from the AirQo sensors with measurements from a BAM-1020 reference monitor operated at the US Embassy in Kampala. Monthly PM2.5 concentrations were used for LUR modeling. We used eight Machine Learning (ML) algorithms and ensemble modeling; using 10-fold cross validation and root mean squared error (RMSE) to evaluate model performance. Results: Monthly PM2.5 concentration was 60.2 µg/m³ (IQR: 45.4-73.0 µg/m³; median= 57.5 µg/m³). For the ML LUR models, RMSE values ranged between 5.43 µg/m³ - 15.43 µg/m³ and explained between 28% and 92% of monthly PM2.5 variability. Generalized additive models explained the largest amount of PM2.5 variability (R²=0.92) and produced the lowest RMSE (5.43 µg/m³) in the held-out test set. The most important predictors of monthly PM2.5 concentrations included monthly precipitation, major roadway density, population density, latitude, greenness, and percentage of households using solid fuels. Conclusion: To our knowledge, ours is the first study to model the spatial distribution of urban air pollution in sub-Saharan Africa using air monitors developed from the region itself. Non-parametric ML for LUR modeling performed with high accuracy for prediction of monthly PM2.5 levels. Our analysis suggests that locally produced low-cost air quality sensors can help build capacity to conduct air pollution epidemiology research in the region.

Users of meteorological forecasts are often faced with the question of whether to make a decision now based on the current forecast or whether to wait for the next and hopefully more accurate forecast before making the decision. One would imagine that the answer to this question should depend on the extent to which there is a benefit in making the decision now rather than later, combined with an understanding of how the skill of the forecast improves, and information about the possible size and nature of forecast changes. We extend the well-known cost-loss model for forecast-based decision making to capture an idealized version of this situation. We find that within this extended cost-loss model, the question of whether to decide now or wait depends on two specific aspects of the forecast, both of which involve probabilities of probabilities. For the special case of weather and climate forecasts in the form of normal distributions we derive a simulation algorithm, and equivalent analytical expressions, for calculating these two probabilities. We apply the algorithm to forecasts of temperature and find that the algorithm leads to better decisions relative to three simpler alternative decision-making schemes. Similar problems have been studied in many other fields, and we explore some of the connections.

There is a lot of discussion underway with conflicting opinions examining the airborne nature of the SARS-CoV2 virus. Surprisingly, important phenomena prevalent with respect to aerosols (suspended droplets) have not been considered. In this Technical Note, we propose a methodology for the coupling of aerosol phenomena (such as evaporation, particle transport accounting for drag) to accurately establish the lifetimes of the droplets. A characteristic time analysis illustrates the time scales for evaporation and settling: for example, the characteristic time for evaporation of a 10 µm droplet is 0.036 s at a relative humidity of 25%; compared to a settling time of about 500 s. For any particle smaller than ~ 100 µm, the evaporation of the emitted or exhaled droplet has to be considered. Coupling evaporation of the droplet as it settles, we estimate the horizontal distance traversed. Trajectories of a 10 µm and 100 µm particle emitted with a typical initial velocity of release associated with coughing and sneezing indicates the greater spread in the horizontal direction when evaporation is accounted for. The life time of the 10 µm particle increases from 8.3 min to 12 hours (will be intercepted prior and the actual airborne time will then be shorter); and for a 100 µm particle from 4.9 s to 39.4 s.

This article investigates whether the weather has any role in terms of spread and vulnerability of COVID-19 and how that knowledge can be used to arrest this fast spreading disease. It highlights that temperature and humidity both are important for transmitting the virus- temperature being the stronger factor. A dry, cool environment is the most favourable state for the spread of the virus. In fact, high temperature environment significantly reduces the risk from the virus. Warm places and countries are likely to be less vulnerable. Only regulating temperature level can provide drastic results to stop and arrest the outbreak. Some urgent solutions are proposed based on that knowledge. The novelty of such approach is- it can be applied overnight and implemented immediately across the globe. It is very cost effective and practically without side effects. No vast amount of funding is required to adopt these solutions. Apart from existing guidelines, these additional measures are likely to reduce the spread of the disease dramatically. Following the scientific discussion, such solutions may be thought of implementing worldwide, especially to vulnerable countries, as an emergency basis.

In recent years, marine, freshwater and terrestrial pollution with microplastics has been discussed extensively, whereas atmospheric microplastic transport has been largely overlooked. Here, we present the first global simulation of atmospheric transport of microplastic particles produced by road traffic (TWPs – tire wear particles and BWPs – brake wear particles), a major source that can be quantified relatively well. We find a high transport efficiency of these particles to remote regions, such as the Arctic Ocean (14%). About 34% of the emitted coarse TWPs and 30% of the emitted coarse BWPs (100 kt yr^-1 and 40 kt yr^-1 respectively) were deposited in the World Ocean. These amounts are of similar magnitude as the total estimated terrestrial and riverine transport of TWPs and fibres to the ocean (64 kt yr^-1). Atmospheric transport of microplastics is thus an underestimated threat to global terrestrial and marine ecosystems and affects air quality on a global scale, especially considering that other large but highly uncertain emissions of microplastics to the atmosphere exist. High latitudes and the Arctic are highlighted as an important receptor of mid-latitude emissions of road microplastics, which may imply a future climatic risk, considering their affinity to absorb solar radiation and accelerate melting.

Precipitation and temperature are significant inputs for hydrological models. Currently, many satellite and reanalysis precipitation and air temperature datasets exist at different spatio-temporal resolutions at a global and quasi-global scale. This study evaluated the performances of three open-access precipitation datasets (gauge-adjusted research-grade Global Satellite Mapping of Precipitation (GSMaP_Gauge), Climate Hazards Group Infrared Precipitation with Station data (CHIRPS), Climate Forecast System Reanalysis(CFSR)) and CFSR air temperature dataset in driving the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model required for the monthly simulation of streamflow in the upper Shiyang River Basin of northwest China. After a thorough comparison of six model scenarios with different combinations of precipitation and air temperature inputs, the following conclusions were drawn: (1) Although the precipitation products had similar spatial patterns, however, CFSR differs significantly by showing an overestimation; (2) CFSR air temperature yielded almost identical performance in the streamflow simulation than the measured air temperature from gauge stations; (3) among the three open-access precipitation datasets, CHIRPS produced the best performance. These results suggested that the CHIRPS precipitation and CFSR air temperature datasets which are available at high spatial resolution (0.05), could be a promising alternative open-access data source for streamflow simulation in the case of limited access to desirable gauge data in the data-scarce area.

Available water resources in the Middle East, as one of the most water-scarce regions of the world, have undergone extra pressure due to climatic change, population growth, and economic development during the past decades. The objective of this study is to detect the trends and quantify the changes in aridity with respect to precipitation and potential evapotranspiration in 20 countries of the Middle East and the adjacent area. A Pixel-wised trend analysis was conducted on precipitation, potential evapotranspiration, and aridity index for 71 years from 1948 to 2018. A nonparametric Mann-Kendall test was used over 14106 points in the study area to detect the trends at monthly and annual time scales. Results showed statistically significant (|Z| >1.96) upward trends in aridity (a downward trend in aridity index) up to 96 percent from December through September in most parts of the region. Aridity in October and November had a downward tendency in most parts of the study area. At the annual time scale, 62.5 percent of the statistically significant trends in aridity were found to be upward (up to 96 percent increase in aridity) due to the combined effects of the decrease in precipitation and the increase in potential evapotranspiration and 37.5 percent of the detected trends were downward (up to 61 percent decrease in aridity). The highest and the lowest trends in aridity were found in the north of Sudan (96 percent increase in aridity) and Eastern Arabia (61 percent decrease in aridity), respectively.

Sufficient evidence is currently available to demonstrate the reality of the warming of our planet's climate system. Global warming has different effects on climate at the regional and local levels. The detection of changes in extreme events using instrumental data provides further evidence of such warming and allows for the characterization of its local manifestations. The present study analyzes changes in temperature and precipitation extremes in the Mexican state of Zacatecas using climate change indices developed by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection, Monitoring and Indices (ETCCDI). We studied a 40-year period (1976-2015) using annual and seasonal time scales. Maximum and minimum temperature data were used, as well as precipitation statistics from the Mexican climatology database (CLICOM) provided by the Mexican meteorological service. Weather stations with at least 80% of data availability for the selected study period were selected; these databases were subjected to quality control, homogenization, and data filling using Climatol, which runs in the R programming language. These homogenized series were used to obtain daily grides of the three variables at a resolution of 1.3 km. Results reveal important changes in temperature-related indices, such as the increase in maximum temperature and the decrease in minimum temperature. Irregular variability was observed in the case of precipitation, which could be associated with low-frequency oscillations such as the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and the El Niño–Southern Oscillation. The possible impact of these changes in temperature and the increased irregularity of precipitation could have a negative impact on the agricultural sector, especially given that the state of Zacatecas is the largest national bean producer. The most important problems in the short term will be related to the difficulty of adapting to these rapid changes and the new climate scenario, which will pose new challenges in the future.

Soil temperature reflects the impact of local factors，such as vegetation，soil and the atmosphere of a region. Therefore, it is important to understand the regional variation of soil temperature. However, lack of observations with adequate spatial and/or temporal coverage, it would be difficult to use the observation data to study the regional variation. Based on the observation data from Nanchang and Ganzhou stations and ERA-Interim/Land reanalysis data, this study analyzed the temporal-spatial distribution characteristics of soil temperature over Poyang Lake Basin. The results showed close correlations between observation data and reanalysis data at different depths. Reanalysis data could mainly reproduce the temporal-spatial distributions of soil temperature over the Poyang Lake Basin, but generally underestimate their magnitudes. Temporally, there is an obvious warming trend in the basin. Seasonally, the temperature raised fastest in spring and slowest in summer, except for the ST4, which rising fastest in spring and slowest in winter. In terms of depths, the temperature of ST1 rises fastest. For the other layers, the warming trend is almost similar. An abrupt change of annual soil temperature at all depths occurred in 1997, and annual soil temperatures at all depths were abnormally low in 1984. Spatially, annual soil temperature decreased with latitude, except for the summer ST1. Because of the high temperature and precipitation in summer, the ST1 are higher around the lake and the river. The climatic trend of soil temperature presents the general increase trend from south to north, opposite to the distribution of soil temperature. The findings provide a basis for understanding and assessing the variation of the soil temperature over the Poyang Lake Basin.

This paper examines the diurnal cycle of convection (DCC) over Lake Titicaca Basin (LTb) during summertime months based on the high spatial resolution (8 x 8 km2) and hourly temporal resolution, estimates of Climate Prediction Center Morphing technique (CMORPH). Analysis was performed using observed data from rain gauges (Rg-SENAMHI) for the period 2002 to 2013. Graphical comparisons and several statistical metrics such as correlation coefficient, bias, and root mean square error were used to evaluate CMORPH product. Spatial maps and graphic metrics of diurnal cycle were developed to assess CMORPH data, spatial dependency an accuracy over the LTb. Approximately, 43% of the total Rg-SENAMHI variation is explained CMORPH data. The correlation between Rg-SENAMHI and CMORPH is positively over southeast and northern LTb, and negatively in the central and southern LTb. A underestimation bias is observed over most the LTb areas and overestimation bias (e.g., Lagunillas, Isla Suana and Desaguadero stations). In general, spatial patterns of rainfall over the LTb were captured through CMORPH data. Over the surrounding lake area, high mountain, and plateau area, maximum peaks of precipitation occur in the early evening, neverhtheless over low areas such as the lake, surrounding and valleys, maximum precipitation values occur early morning. The results show that DCC its very related by surface exchange processes and local circulation resulting from solar radiation and heterogeneous topography.

In this work, a semi-empirical relationship of carbon dioxide emissions with atmospheric CO₂ concentrations has been developed that is capable of closely replicating observations from 1751 to 2018. The correlation consists of a superposition of a linear component that may be attributed to the net emission flux from land use changes coupled with a rapidly varying component of the terrestrial sink combined with a fossil-fuel combustion/cement production emissions-based calculation with a single, fixed, scaling parameter determined by the ocean sink coupled with the remaining slowly varying component of the land sink (the fossil-fuel combustion airborne fraction).

This study aims to investigate the Stratosphere-Troposphere Exchange (STE) events and ozone trends over Irene (25.5°S, 28.1°E). Twelve years of ozonesondes data (2000–2007, 2012–2015) from Irene station operating in the framework of the Southern Hemisphere Additional Ozonesodes (SHADOZ) was used to study the troposphere (0–16 km) and stratosphere (17– 28 km) ozone (O₃) vertical profiles. Ozone profiles were grouped into three categories (2000–2003, 2004–2007 and 2012–2015) and average composites were calculated for each category. Fifteen O₃ enhancement events were identified over the study period. These events were observed in all seasons (one event in summer, four events in autumn, five events in winter and five events in spring), however, they predominantly occur in winter and spring. The STE events presented here are observed to be influenced by the Southern Hemisphere polar vortex. During the STE events, the advected potential vorticity maps assimilated using Modélisation Isentrope du transport Méso–échelle de l’Ozone Stratosphérique par Advection (MIMOSA) model for the 350 K (~12–13 km) isentropic level indicated a transport of high latitude air masses which seems to be responsible for the reduction of the O₃ mole fractions at the lower stratosphere over Irene which takes place at the same time with the enhancement of ozone in the upper troposphere. In general, the stratosphere is dominated by higher Modern Retrospective Analysis for Research Application (MERRA-2) potential vorticity (PV) values compared to the troposphere. However, during the STE events, higher PV values from the stratosphere were observed to intrude the troposphere. Ozone decline was observed from 12 km to 24 km with highest decline occurring from 14 km to 18 km. An average decrease of 6.0 and 9.1% was calculated from 12 to 24 km in 2004–2007 and 2012–2015 respectively. The observed decline occurred in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere with winter and spring showing more decline compared with summer and autumn.

Users of meteorological forecasts are often faced with the question of whether to make a decision now based on the current forecast or wait for the next and hopefully more accurate forecast before making the decision. One would imagine that the answer to this question should depend on the extent to which there is a benefit in making the decision now rather than later, combined with an understanding of how the skill of the forecast improves, and information about the possible size and nature of forecast changes. We extend the well-known cost-loss model for forecast-based decision making to capture an idealized version of this situation. We find that within this extended cost-loss model, the question of whether to decide now or wait depends on two specific aspects of the forecast, both of which involve probabilities of probabilities. We derive an algorithm for calculating these two probabilities for the case of normally distributed weather or climate forecasts and apply it to a series of synthetic weather forecasts of temperature. We find that the algorithm leads to better decisions relative to three simpler alternative decision-making schemes.

Studies on the detection of layers with elevated black carbon aerosol (BC) concentrations and the formation conditions of these layers help understand the vertical distribution of BC concentrations, which will provide a basis for the assessment of climate effects and early BC pollution warnings. By using the Weather Research and Forecasting with Chemistry (WRF-Chem) numerical model, we performed a numerical simulation analysis on the authenticity of strong elevated BC concentration layers that were detected by an aircraft in the mixing layer over Harbin, China, which is a high-emission area, on a clear sunny afternoon in the early heating period of 2016. We then discuss possible problems and solutions when non-vertical paths are used to detect the vertical distribution of BC concentrations. Finally, we discuss the favorable conditions for the formation of elevated BC concentration layers by weak vertical flow. The results show that the horizontal variability of BC concentration in the mixing layer in the observation area in Harbin was sufficiently large during the measurement. This produced a false elevated layer, as detected by the aircraft during one round of spiral flight in the mixing layer. The root mean square of the horizontal distribution of BC concentration did not change with height in the mixing layer during the daytime, but it decreased with the thickness of the mixing layer and was higher in the mixing layer than in the free atmosphere. Therefore, the thinner the mixing layer, in which the vertical distribution of the BC concentration is detected in an inclined path, the stronger interference of the horizontal variability on the detected results. When a spiral flight detection path is used, the aircraft should fly at least two rounds in the mixing layer. In the daytime, due to strong turbulence in the mixing layer, weak vertical uplift is not favorable for the occurrence of elevated BC concentration layers in the mixing layer. In the nighttime, if weak vertical uplift is well matched with the BC concentration or its vertical gradient, elevated BC concentration layers can be formed in the atmosphere. Compared with upper layers far from the ground, nighttime elevated layers are easier to form in lower layers near the ground because high BC concentrations or large vertical gradients are more likely to occur in the lower layers. Both cases facilitate the occurrence of large vertical upward transport rates of BC.

Floods and droughts are driven, in part, by spatial patterns of extreme rainfall. Heat waves are driven by spatial patterns of extreme temperature. It is therefore of interest to design statistical methodologies that allow the identification of likely patterns of extreme rain or temperature from observed historical data. The standard work-horse for identifying patterns of climate variability in historical data is Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and its variants. But PCA optimizes for variance not spatial extremes, and so there is no particular reason why the first PCA spatial pattern should identify, or even approximate, the types of patterns that may drive these phenomena, even if the linear assumptions underlying PCA are correct. We present an alternative pattern identification algorithm that makes the same linear assumptions as PCA, but which can be used to explicitly optimize for spatial extremes. We call the method Directional Component Analysis (DCA), since it involves introducing a preferred direction, or metric, such as `sum of all points in the spatial field'. We compare the first PCA and DCA spatial patterns for US rainfall anomalies on a 6 month timescale, using the sum metric for the definition of DCA in order to focus on total rainfall anomaly over the domain, and find that they are somewhat different. The definitions of PCA and DCA result in the first PCA spatial pattern having the larger explained variance of the two patterns, while the first DCA spatial pattern, when scaled appropriately, has a higher likelihood and greater total rainfall anomaly, and indeed is the pattern with the highest total rainfall anomaly for any given likelihood. In combination these two patterns yield more insight into rainfall variability and extremes than either pattern on its own.

Floods and droughts are driven, in part, by patterns of extreme rainfall. Heat waves are driven, in part, by patterns of extreme temperature. The standard work-horse for understanding patterns of climate variability is Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and its variants. But PCA does not optimize for spatial extremes, and so there is no particular reason why the first PCA pattern should identify, or even approximate, the types of patterns that may drive these phenomena, even if the linear assumptions underlying PCA are correct. We present an alternative pattern identification algorithm that makes the same linear assumptions as PCA, but which can be used to explicitly optimize for spatial extremes. We call the method Directional Component Analysis (DCA), since it involves introducing a preferred direction, or metric, such as `sum of all points in the field'. We compare the first PCA and DCA patterns for US rainfall on a 6 month timescale, using the sum metric for the definition of DCA, and find that they are somewhat different. The definitions of PCA and DCA mean that the first PCA pattern has the larger explained variance of the two, while the first DCA pattern, when scaled appropriately, is both more likely and captures more rainfall. In combination these two patterns yield more insight into rainfall variability than either pattern on its own.

New data on the climate in southern Spain from 1792 to 1808 are analyzed in this work. The data source is the newspaper Correo Mercantil de España y sus Indias, where summaries of the weather conditions in Spain were published at weekly resolution. The study is focused on southern provinces, providing 2788 new records, some of them corresponding to areas without data previously recorded. The analysis indicates the predominance of cold-dry winters, cold-wet springs, warm-dry summers, and variable conditions in autumn, from west (cold-wet) to east (warm-dry). Some examples of these situations are presented.

This work examines drought and wet events based on Standardized Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) over Kenya from 1981 to 2016. Spatiotemporal analysis of dry and wet events is conducted for 3 and 12-month SPEI. The drought incidences were observed during the period 1984, 1987, 2000, 2006, 2009, 2015, and 2016 for SPEI-3 whilst the SPEI-12 demonstrated the manifestation of drought during the year 2000 and 2006. SPEI clearly shows that the wettest period, 1997 and 1998 that coincide with the El Nino event in both time steps. SPEI -3 shows a reduction in moderate drought events while severe and extreme cases were on increase towards the end of the twentieth century. Conversely, SPEI-12 depicts an overall increase in severe drought occurrence over the study location with observed intensity of -1.54 and cumulative frequency of 64 months during the study period. The trend of wet events is upwards in the western and central highlands while the rest of the regions show increase in dry events during the study period. Moreover, moderate dry/wet events predominate whilst extreme events occur least frequent across all grid cells. It is apparent that the study area experiences mild extreme dry events in both categories although moderately severe dry events dominate most parts of the study area. High intensity and frequency of drought is noted in SPEI-3 while least occurrences of extreme events are recorded in SPEI-12. Although drought event prevails across the study area, there is evidence of extreme flood conditions over the recent decades. These findings form a good basis for next step of research that will look at projection of droughts over the study area based on regional climate models.

Precipitation is a crucial driver for many environmental processes and weather radars are capable of providing precipitation information with high spatial and temporal resolution. However, radar-based quantitative precipitation estimates (QPE) are also subject to various potential uncertainties. This study explores the development, uncertainties and potentials of the hourly operational German radar-based and gauge-adjusted QPE called RADOLAN and its reanalysed radar climatology dataset named RADKLIM in comparison to ground-truth rain gauge data. The precipitation datasets are statistically analysed across various time scales ranging from annual and seasonal aggregations to hourly rainfall intensities in regard to their capability to map long-term precipitation distribution, to detect low intensity rainfall and to capture heavy rainfall. Moreover, the impacts of season, orography and distance from the radar on long-term precipitation sums are examined in order to evaluate dataset performance and to describe inherent biases. Results revealed that both radar products tend to underestimate total precipitation sums and particularly high intensity rainfall. But our analyses also showed significant improvements throughout the RADOLAN time series as well as major advances through the climatologic reanalysis regarding the correction of typical radar artefacts, orographic and winter precipitation as well as range-dependent attenuation.

The direct radiative effect of aerosols is taken into account in many limited area numerical weather prediction models using wavelength-dependent aerosol optical depths of a range of aerosol species. We study the impact of aerosol distribution and optical properties on radiative transfer, based on climatological and more realistic near real-time aerosol data. Sensitivity tests were carried out using the single column version of the ALADIN-HIRLAM numerical weather prediction system, set up to use the HLRADIA broadband radiation scheme. The tests were restricted to clear-sky cases to avoid the complication of cloud-radiation-aerosol interactions. The largest differences in radiative fluxes and heating rates were found to be due to different aerosol loads. When the loads are large, the radiative fluxes and heating rates are sensitive to the aerosol inherent optical properties and vertical distribution of the aerosol species. Impacts of aerosols on shortwave radiation dominate longwave impacts. Sensitivity experiments indicated the important effects of highly absorbing black carbon aerosols and strongly scattering desert dust.

The mass composition of Particulate Matter (PM) with an aerodynamic diameter of 2.5 microns (PM2.5) in San Joaquin Valley (SJV) is dominated by ammonium nitrate (NH4NO3) which is a secondary pollutant. The goal of this research was the investigation of the relationship between emissions, meteorology and PM2.5 concentrations in Fresno for the winter season. It was found that the location of sites near emission sources such as freeways compared with residential sites strongly affected measured PM2.5 concentrations. It was found that although long-term trends showed declines in both emissions and PM2.5 concentrations there was substantial variability between the years in the PM2.5/emissions relationship. Much of the yearly variation in the relationship between emissions and PM2.5 concentrations can be attributed to yearly variations in weather, such as atmospheric stability, precipitation frequency and average wind speed. There are moderate correlations between PM2.5 concentrations and temperature differences between nearby surface stations at varying elevations which explains some of the daily and seasonal variation in PM2.5. Occurrence of precipitation was related to low PM¬2.5 although the higher wind speeds and lower atmospheric stability associated with precipitation likely explain some of the low PM2.5 as well as washout of PM.

Accurate assessment and projections of extreme climate events requires the use of climate datasets with no or minimal error. This study uses quantile mapping bias correction (QMBC) method to correct the bias of five Regional Climate Models (RCMs) from the latest output of Rossby Climate Model Center (RCA4) over Kenya, East Africa. The outputs were validated using various scalar metrics such as Root Mean Square Difference (RMSD), Mean Absolute Error (MAE) and mean Bias. The study found that the QMBC algorithm demonstrate varying performance among the models in the study domain. The results show that most of the models exhibit significant improvement after corrections at seasonal and annual timescales. Specifically, the European community Earth-System (EC-EARTH) and Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization (CSIRO) models depict exemplary improvement as compared to other models. On the contrary, the Institute Pierre Simon Laplace Model CM5A-MR (IPSL-CM5A-MR) model show little improvement across various timescales (i.e. March-April-May (MAM) and October-November-December (OND)). The projections forced with bias corrected historical simulations tallied observed values demonstrate satisfactory simulations as compared to the uncorrected RCMs output models. This study has demonstrated that using QMBC on outputs from RCA4 is an important intermediate step to improve climate data prior to performing any regional impact analysis. The corrected models can be used for projections of drought and flood extreme events over the study area. This study analysis is crucial from the sustainable planning for adaptation and mitigation of climate change and disaster risk reduction perspective.

This work examines drought and pluvial events based on Standardized Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) over Kenya from 1981 to 2016. Spatiotemporal analysis of dry and wet events is conducted for 3 and 12-month SPEI. The drought incidences were observed during the period 1984, 1987, 2000, 2006, 2009, 2015, and 2016 for SPEI-3 whilst the SPEI-12 demonstrated the manifestation of drought during the year 2000 and 2006. SPEI clearly shows the wettest period, 1997 and 1998 coinciding with the El Nino event in both time steps. SPEI -3 shows a reduction in moderate drought events while severe and extreme cases were on increase towards the end of the twentieth century. Conversely, SPEI-12 depicts an overall severe drought occurrence over the study location with observed intensity of -1.54 and cumulative frequency of 64 months during the study period. The trend of wet events is upwards in the western and central highlands while the rest of the regions show increase in dry events during the study period. Moreover, moderate dry/wet events predominate whilst extreme events occur least frequent across all grid cells. It is apparent that the study area experiences mild extreme dry events in both categories although moderately severe dry events dominate most parts of the study area. High intensity and frequency of drought is noted in SPEI-3 while least occurrences of extreme events are recorded in SPEI-12. Although drought event prevails across the study area, there is evidence of extreme flood conditions over the recent decades.

As one of GEO-constellation for environmental monitoring in the next decade, Geostationary Environment Monitoring Spectrometer (GEMS) is designed to observe the Asia Pacific region to provide the information on the atmospheric chemicals, aerosol and cloud properties. For the continuous monitoring of the sensor performance after its launch in early 2020, here we suggest deep convective clouds (DCCs) as a possible target for the vicarious calibration of GEMS, the first UV/VIS hyperspectral sensor onboard a geostationary satellite. Tropospheric Monitoring Instrument (TROPOMI) and Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) are used as a proxy of GEMS, and a conventional DCC detection approach applying the thermal threshold test is used for the DCC detection based on the collocations with Advance Himawari-8 Imager (AHI) onboard Himawari-8 geostationary satellite. DCCs are frequently detected over the GEMS observation area on average over 200 pixels in a single observation scene. Considering the spatial resolution of GEMS, 3.5 km×7 km which is similar to TROPOMI, and its temporal resolution (8 times a day), availability of DCCs for vicarious calibration of GEMS is expected to be sufficient. Inspection of the DCC reflectivity spectra estimated from the OMI and TROPOMI data also shows a promising result. Even though, their observation geometry and sensor characteristics are quite a different, the estimated DCC spectra agree quite a well within a known uncertainty range with comparable spectral features. When the DCC detection is further improved by applying both visible and infrared tests, the variability of DCC reflectivity from the TROPOMI data is reduced by half, from 10% to 5%. This is mainly due to the efficient screening of cold thin cirrus with the visible test and of bright warm clouds with the infrared test. The precise DCC detection is also expected to contribute to the accurate characterization of the cloud reflectivity, which will be further investigated.

This study analyses uncertainties associated with the main features of the annual cycle of West African rainfall (amplitude, timing, duration) in 15 CMIP5 simulations over the Sahelian and Guinean regions with satellite daily precipitation estimates. The annual cycle of indices based on daily rainfall such as the frequency and the intensity of wet days, the consecutive dry (CDD) and wet days (CWD), the 95th percentile of daily rainfall (R95) have been assessed. Over both regions, satellite datasets provide more consistent results on the annual cycle of monthly precipitation than on higher-frequency rainfall indices, especially over the Guinean region. CMIP5 simulations display much higher uncertainties in both the mean precipitation climatology and higher-frequency indices. Over both regions, most of them overestimate the frequency of wet days. Over the Guinean region, the difficulty of models to represent the bimodality of the annual cycle of precipitation involves systematic biases the frequency of wet days. Likewise, we found strong uncertainties in the simulation of the CWD and the CDD over both areas. Finally, models generally provide too early (late) onset dates over the Sahel (the Guinean region) and overestimate rainfall during the early and late monsoon phases. These errors are strongly coupled errors in the latitudinal position of the ITCZ and do not compensate at the annual scale nor when considering West Africa as a whole. wet days. We found strong uncertainties in the simulation of the CWD and he CDD over both areas. Conversely for R95p and R95PTOT, the ncertainties in CMIP5 models appear somewhat weaker, but the magnitude f R95 is largely underestimated in most models.

In the present paper, a measure of the influence of irregularities of the underlying surface (for instance, the real terrain profile) on the dynamics of air flow is estimated. It is shown that these irregularities significantly perturbing the pressure, density, velocity and temperature of air flow; for perturbed pressure, density, velocity and temperature of air flow the closed formulas in the Fourier integral form are obtained. In addition, in the present paper, it is proved that due to these perturbations, at a certain altitude of the atmosphere some surface of the "sturdy wall" form appears, on which the vertical and horizontal components of the air flow velocity become infinitesimal and infinitely large, respectively.

The development of extremely powerful thunderstorm which took place on August 19, 2015 is discussed in this paper. High depth hail cloud originated on the Black Sea Coast and classified as a supercell as well as several weaker hailstorms passed more than 1000 km over Northern Caucasus of Russia, the Caspian Sea, and then invaded the territory of Kazakhstan. During more than 20 hours of existence this supercell produced heavy hail, rain, intense lightning discharges, gust and tornado which rarely occurs in the region. The study of the structure and characteristics of the thunderstorm during the formation of electrical discharges and their frequency were of particular interest. According to the forecast, development of convective clouds and separate thunderstorms were expected, though the powerful hail process was not expected due to small vertical temperature gradients and the absence of cold fronts. Supercell was tracked by 5 radars located in this area, which showed its right-hand development with clock-wise deviation from the leading stream on 40-50 degrees to the right and the resulting speed of propagation was about 60-85km/h. The maximum reflectivity factor exceeded value 75dBZ, top of the clouds reached 15-16km and the height of the hail core raised on 11.2km. The size of hailstones size on most of the hail path was 2–3cm, and at the peak of cloud development - 4–5cm. Maximum frequencies of cloud-to-ground flashes of negative and positive polarities reached 30-35min-1 and 60-70min-1 correspondingly, while frequency of cloud-to-cloud flashes was significantly higher and amounted up to 300-500min-1 at the peak of the supercell development. An important fact is that the maximum frequency of flashes of different types coincided in time, showing that the reason of all discharges is similar. Total current of the cloud-to-ground flashes of positive and negative polarities was almost identical in magnitude and differed by sign. It was 200-300 kiloampere at the peak of thunderstorm development. The minimum value of radiation temperature, measured by SEVIRI radiometer installed onboard of Meteosat-10 satellite in 10.8 μm channel, was near to -60ºC. The minimum temperature value on the top of the supercell was comparable to coupled radar and sounding data. The most intensive precipitation flux derived from radiometric measurements was about 22000m3/sec; at the same period radars assessments showed precipitation up to 550mm/h (mixed phase precipitation) and size of hail 4.5cm. The combined satellite-radar-lightning data analysis showed that radar derived characteristics of the supercell reached their maximums earlier than maximum in lightning activity. The highest correlation coefficient between radar and lightning characteristics of the supercell storm was found for pair maximum reflectivity and intensity of LF (0.55) and VHF (0.66) discharges. Estimations of relationship between hail size and lightning activity showed that with increasing hail size, thunderstorm activity increases for both cloud-to-ground and intracloud flashes (on the level 0.46 - 0.59). Analysis of doppler-polarimetric data showed strong inflow zone associated with tornado. Tornadic debris signature was manifested by radar reflectivity factor ZH > 60 dBZ, differential reflectivity ZDR > -1 dB, copolar cross-correlation coefficient ρHV < 0.6, and it was collocated with the tornado vortex signature. Doppler velocities in mesocyclone zone reached values -43 and +63 m/s. Prominent radar echo hook was identified in 1.5 km layer above the ground, while ZDR columns was relatively narrow (4–8 km wide) and not very deep (4.5 km).

This study was conducted in a laboratory-controlled environment aiming at studying the physical properties and elemental composition of coal combustion particles in a brazier. Particles were sampled ~1 m above the stove using a partector, where particles were collected on gold Transmission Electron Microscopy (TEM) grids and polycarbonate filters for TEM and inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry (ICP-MS) analysis, respectively. Particles for elemental analysis collected on a 37 µm polycarbonate filters whereby a Gillian pump was used to draw in air. During sampling, a 2.5 µm cyclone was attached to the sampling cassette to isolate larger particles. The results have shown that combustion particles emitted during the early stage of combustion where single spherical particles with a diameter of around 450 nm. As the combustion progresses, the particle diameter gradually decreases and the morphology changes to accretion chain and fluffy bead structure for the flaming and char-burning phase, respectively.

Review of the existing bibliography shows that the direction and magnitude of the long-term trends of UV irradiance, and their main drivers, vary significantly throughout Europe. Analysis of total ozone and spectral UV data recorded at four European stations during 1996 – 2017 reveals that long-term changes in UV are mainly driven by changes in aerosols, cloudiness, and surface albedo, while changes in total ozone play a less significant role. The variability of UV irradiance is large throughout Italy due to the complex topography and large latitudinal extension of the country. Analysis of the spectral UV records of the urban site of Rome, and the alpine site of Aosta reveals that differences between the two sites follow the annual cycle of the differences in cloudiness and surface albedo. Comparisons between the noon UV index measured at the ground at the same stations and the corresponding estimates from the DWD forecast model and OMI/Aura observations reveal differences of up to 6 units between individual measurements, which are likely due to the different spatial resolution of the different datasets, and average differences of 0.5 – 1 unit, possibly related to the use of climatological surface albedo and aerosol optical properties in the retrieval algorithms.

To explore the characteristics of the concentric eyewall of a typhoon during its formation and replacement processes, with Super Typhoon Muifa in 2011 as the example case, the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) mode was used to carry out a numerical simulation to reproduce the entire formation and replacement processes of the concentric eyewall. The physical quantities such as the tangential wind speed, radar echo, radial wind speed, vertical wind speed, and potential vortex were diagnosed and analyzed. The results of the analysis show that the outward expansion of the isovelocity in the lower troposphere was the early signal of the formation of the outer eyewall. After the outer eyewall formed, there was a center of second-highest tangential wind speed in the corresponding area. The second-highest wind speed increased as the strength of the outer eyewall increased, and the position of the second-highest wind speed center was retracted with the retraction of the outer eyewall. The tangential wind speed of the moat area was smaller than that corresponding to the concentric eyewall and this feature gradually disappeared with the increase of the height. The echo in the moat area was weak, and this characteristic was particularly evident when the moat area was relatively wide and the outer eyewall was relatively strong. With the formation and development of the outer eyewall, the intensity of the inflow in the boundary layer corresponding to the inner eyewall was reduced, the intensity of the outflow in the upper layers declined, and the intensities of the inflow and outflow corresponding to the outer eyewall were enhanced. After the second outer eyewall matured, there was a significant inflow in the upper layer of the moat area. Once the outer eyewall formed, a large amount of hydrometeors appeared in the corresponding area, and there was a strong ascending motion inside that area. The strength of the ascending motion and the content of hydrometeors increased as the outer eyewall increased. When the moat area was relatively wide, the divergent airflow generated by the developed outer eyewall in the upper layer would produce a significant descending motion in the moat area.

Alkali-containing submicron particles were measured continuously during three months, including late winter and spring seasons in Gothenburg, Sweden. The overall aims were to characterize the ambient concentrations of combustion-related aerosol particles and to address the importance of local emissions and long-range transport for the atmospheric concentrations in the urban background environment. K and Na concentrations in the PM1 size range were measured by an alkali aerosol mass spectrometer (Alkali-AMS) and a cluster analysis was conducted. Local meteorological conditions and some other data sets were obtained, and back trajectory analyses and chemical transport model (CTM) simulations were included for the evaluation. The Alkali-AMS cluster analysis indicated three major clusters: 1) biomass burning origin, 2) mixture of other combustion sources, and 3) marine origin. Low temperatures and low wind speed conditions correlated with high concentrations of K-containing particles, mainly due to regional emissions from residential biomass combustion; transport of air masses from continental Europe also contribute to cluster 1. The CTM results indicate that open biomass burning in the eastern parts of Europe may have contributed substantially to high PM2.5 concentrations (and to cluster 1) during an episode in late March. According to the CTM results the mixed cluster (2) is likely to include particles emitted from different source types and no single geographical source region seems to dominate for this cluster. The back trajectory analysis and meteorological conditions indicated that the marine origin cluster was correlated with westerly winds and high wind speed; this cluster had high concentrations of Na-containing particles, as expected for sea salt particles.

We examine the role of zonal Ekman transport along the coast of Senegal on 30 August, 2015 when the tropical disturbance associated with Tropical Cyclone Fred was located to the west of Senegal causing considerable coastal damage to coastal areas south of Dakar, Senegal. Ten-meter winds from three Weather Research and Forecast model simulations were used to estimate zonal Ekman transport, with the largest values found during the 30 August. The simulations are in agreement with limited coastal observations showing increasing southerly wind speeds during 30 August but are overestimated relative to the 3 coastal stations. The strong meridional winds translate into increased zonal Ekman transport to the coast of Senegal on 30 August. The use of a coupled ocean model will improve the estimates of Ekman transport along the Guinea-Senegalese coast. The observed damage suggests that artificial and natural barriers (mangroves) should be strengthened to protect coastal communities in Senegal.

Observing air quality from sensors onboard light rail cars in Salt Lake County, Utah began as a pilot study in 2014 and has now evolved into a five-year state-funded program. This metropolitan region suffers from both elevated ozone levels during summer and high PM2.5 events during winter. Pollution episodes result predominantly from local anthropogenic emissions but are also impacted by regional transport of dust, chemical precursors to ozone, and wildfire smoke as well as being exacerbated by the topographical features surrounding the city. Two electric light-rail train cars from the Utah Transit Authority light-rail Transit Express (“TRAX”) system were outfitted with PM2.5 and ozone sensors to measure air quality at high spatial and temporal resolution in this region. Pollutant concentration data underwent quality control procedures to determine whether the train motion affected the readings and how the sensors compared against regulatory sensors. Quality assurance results from data obtained over the past year show that TRAX Observation Project sensors are reliable, which corroborates earlier preliminary validation work. Two case studies from summer 2019 are presented to illustrate the strength of the finely-resolved air quality observations: 1) an elevated ozone event and 2) elevated particulate pollution resulting from 4th of July fireworks. The mobile observations were able to capture spatial gradients as well as pollutant hotspots during both of these episodes. Sensors have been recently added to a third light rail train car, which travels on a north-south oriented rail line along which we were unable to monitor air quality previously. The TRAX Observation Project is currently being used to provide reliable pollutant data for health studies and inform urban planning efforts. Links to real-time data displays and updated information on the quality-controlled data from this study are available at https://atmos.utah.edu/air_quality/trax/.

On January 8, 2005, a surface melt event began on the interior portion of Ross Ice Shelf. While many surface melt events on Ross Ice Shelf are caused by the advection of warm air onto the shelf from the Ross Sea, surface winds during this event were directed offshore and the spatial pattern of surface melt was inconsistent with the Southern Ocean serving as a heat source. Rather, due to the interior location of the surface melt coupled with prevailing wind direction and surface temperature data it is thought that adiabatic warming of Föhn winds is the driving cause of this melt event. Passive Microwave (SSM/I) imagery was used to determine surface melt occurrence and the event’s extent. Spatial patterns of surface melt were then compared to NCEP/NCAR reanalysis output for several synoptic weather variables including surface temperatures, sea level pressure and surface vector winds. Synoptic-scale weather conditions were consistent with those that would produce downsloping wind (föhn) conditions in the interior of the Ross Ice Shelf where the anomalous surface melt was located.

Tropical storm Nate, which was a powerful hurricane prior to landfall along the Alabama coast, traversed north towards our instrumented site in Hunstville, AL. The rain bands lasted 18 h and the 2D-video disdrometer (2DVD) captured the event which was shallow and indicative of pure warm rain processes. Measurements of raindrop size, shape and velocity distributions are quite rare in pure warm rain and are expected to differ from cold rain processes. In particular, asymmetric shapes due to drop oscillations and their impact on polarimetric radar signatures in warm rain have not been studied so far. Recently, the 2DVD data has been used for 3D reconstruction of asymmetric raindrop shapes but their fraction (relative to the more common oblate shapes) in warm rain has yet to be ascertained. Here we compute the scattering matrix drop-by-drop using Computer Simulation Technology integral equation solver for drop sizes>2.5 mm. From the scattering matrix elements, the polarimetric radar observables are simulated by integrating over 1 minute consecutive segments of the event. These simulated values are compared with dual-polarized C-band radar data located at 15 km range from the 2DVD site to evaluate the contribution of the asymmetric drop shapes.

The modern era of polarimetric radar begins with radiowave propagation research starting in the early 1970s with applications to measurement and modeling of wave attenuation in rain and depolarization due to ice particles along satellite-earth links. While there is a rich history of radar in meteorology after World War II, the impetus provided by radiowave propagation requirements lead to high quality antennas and feeds. Our journey starts by describing the key institutions and personnel responsible for development of weather radar polarimetry. The early period was dominated by circularly polarized radars for propagation research and at S-band for hail detection. By the mid-to late 70s, a paradigm shift occurred which led to the dominance of linear polarizations with applications to slant path attenuation prediction as well as estimation of rain rates and inferences of precipitation physics. The period from early 1980s to 1995 can be considered as the “golden” period of rapid research that brought in meteorologists, cloud physicists and hydrologists. This article describes the evolution of this technology from the vantage point of the authors. Their personal reflections and “behind the scenes” descriptions offer a glimpse into the inner workings at several key institutions which cannot be found elsewhere.

Amplitude growth rates of monochromatic gravity waves were estimated and compared from multiple instrument measurements carried out in Brazil. Wave dynamic parameters were obtained from sodium density profiles from lidar observations carried out in Sao Jose dos Campos (23°S, 46°W), while all-sky images of multiple airglow layers provided amplitudes and parameters of waves over Cachoeira Paulista (23°S, 45°W). Growth rates of gravity wave amplitudes from lidar and airglow imager data were consistent with dissipative wave behavior. Only a small amount of the observed wave events presented freely propagating behavior. Part of the observed waves presented saturated amplitude. The general saturated/damped behavior is consistent with diffusive filtering processes imposing limits to amplitude growth rates of the observed gravity waves.

Warm cloud-precipitation plays a vital role in the hydrological cycle, weather, and climate. Comprehensive observation and study of warm cloud-precipitation can advance our understanding of the internal physical processes and provide valuable information for developing the numerical models. This paper mainly focused on a study of characteristics of warm cloud-precipitation in South China during the pre-flood season using datasets observed from a Ka-band cloud radar, laser ceilometer and disdrometer. Eighteen kinds of quantities from these three instruments were used to precisely elucidate the distribution, diurnal variation, vertical structure, and physical property of warm cloud-precipitation. The results showed that the occurrence of aloft cloud-precipitation decreased with the increase of height, and most of the hydrometeors were distributed below 2 km. During the observation period, the ground rainfall mainly came from light precipitation; however, short-time and sharp showers contributed to the majority of rain amounts. Most of the cloud layers were single-layer, with base heights below 2.2 km, thickness thinner than 2.1 km, and top heights within 0.6-4.2 km. Warm cloud-precipitation owned certain diurnal variations, with a rising trend of cloud base heights in the afternoon and midnight. During 0230-1100, 1200-1800, and 2100-2300, the convections were relatively active with higher cloud tops, thicker cloud thickness, and higher rainfall occurrences. Separation and statistical results of cloud and precipitation indicated that they owned different vertical structures and physical properties, exhibiting different value ranges and changes of radar reflectivity, vertical air motion, particle size, number concentration, liquid water, and rain rate at different height levels. The particle size distributions of cloud and precipitation both were exponential. Radar-derived raindrop size distribution was very coherent with the ground measurement when the reflectivity of precipitation was within 10-20 dBZ. However, for other reflectivity regimes, instrument sensitivity, sampling height, attenuation, and non-precipitating weak targets can affect the comparison.

The three-axes Doppler sodar Latan-3 operated on an oceanographic stationary platform in the coastal zone of the Black Sea in June 2015. The platform is located 450 meters offshore from the southern coast of the Crimea Peninsula in the region of Katsiveli (44.39°N, 33.99°E). The water depth at the site is about 30 meters. The atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) typical for the mediterranean seas was observed when the wind is from the sea. The physical processes typical for the coastal mountain terrain was observed when the wind was from the shore. Complex measurements of the ABL parameters were performed using a sodar. Auxiliary measurements of the ABL parameters were performed using a temperature profiler and an ultrasonic thermometer-anemometer. Observations were made mostly during a fair weather with a pronounced diurnal course of meteorological parameters. Sodar data analysis revealed a strong wave activity in the ABL. Internal gravity waves with amplitudes of up to one hundred meters were regularly observed in a layered turbulence structure under stable conditions. Various forms of Kelvin-Helmholtz billows were observed at the interface between the sea breeze and the return flow aloft and in the low level jets.

We examine data assimilation coupling between meteorology and chemistry in the stratosphere from both weak and strong coupling strategies. The study was performed with the Canadian operational weather prediction Global Environmental Multiscale (GEM) model coupled online with the photochemical stratospheric chemistry developed at the Belgian Institute for Space Aeronomy, described in Part I. Here, the Canadian Meteorological Centre’s operational variational assimilation system was extended to include errors of chemical variables and cross-covariances between meteorological and chemical variables in a 3D-Var configuration, and we added the adjoint of tracer advection in the 4D-Var configuration. Our results show that the assimilation of limb sounding observations from the MIPAS instrument on board Envisat can be used to anchor the AMSU-A radiance bias correction scheme. Also, the added value of limb sounding temperature observations on meteorology and transport is shown to be significant. Weak coupling data assimilation with ozone-radiation interaction is shown to give comparable on meteorology whether a simplified linearized or comprehensive ozone chemistry scheme is used. Strong coupling data assimilation, using static error cross-covariances between ozone and temperature in a 3D-Var context, produced inconclusive results with the approximations we used. We have also conducted the assimilation of long-lived species observations using 4D-Var to infer winds. Our results showed the added value of assimilating several long-lived species, and an improvement in the zonal wind in the Tropics within the troposphere and lower stratosphere. 4D-Var assimilation also induced a correction of zonal wind in the surf zone and a temperature bias in the lower tropical stratosphere

A coupled stratospheric chemistry-meteorology model was developed by combining the Canadian operational weather prediction model Global Environmental Multiscale (GEM) with a comprehensive stratospheric photochemistry model from the Belgian Assimilation System for Chemical ObsErvations (BASCOE). The coupled model was called GEM-BACH for GEM-Belgian Atmospheric CHemistry. The coupling was made across a chemical interface that preserves time splitting while being modular, allowing GEM to run with or without chemistry. An evaluation of the coupling was performed by comparing the coupled model, refreshed by meteorological analyses every 6 hours, against the standard offline chemical transport model (CTM) approach. Results show that the dynamical meteorological consistency between meteorological analysis times far outweighs the error created by the jump resulting from the meteorological analysis increments at regular time intervals, irrespective whether a 3D-Var or 4D-Var meteorological analysis is used. GEM-BACH forecast refreshed by meteorological analyses every 6 hours were compared against independent measurements of temperature, long-lived species, ozone and water vapor. The comparison showed a relatively good agreement throughout the stratosphere except for an upper-level warm temperature bias and an ozone deficit of nearly 15%. Arguments in favor of using the same horizontal resolution for chemistry, meteorology, and meteorological analysis increments are also presented. In particular, the coupled model simulation during an ozone hole event gives better ozone concentrations than a 4D-Var chemical assimilation at a lower resolution.

The modern era of polarimetric radar begins with radiowave propagation research starting in the early 1970s with applications to measurement and modeling of wave attenuation in rain and depolarization due to ice particles along satellite-earth links. While there is a rich history of radar in meteorology after World War II, the impetus provided by radiowave propagation requirements lead to high quality antennas and feeds. Our journey starts by describing the key institutions and personnel responsible for development of weather radar polarimetry. The early period was dominated by circularly polarized radars for propagation research and at S-band for hail detection. By the mid-to late 70s, a paradigm shift occurred which led to the dominance of linear polarizations with applications to slant path attenuation prediction as well as estimation of rain rates and inferences of precipitation physics. The period from early 1980s to 1995 can be considered as the “golden” period of rapid research that brought in meteorologists, cloud physicists and hydrologists. This article describes the evolution of this technology from the vantage point of the authors. Their personal reflections and “behind the scenes” descriptions offer a glimpse into the inner workings at several key institutions which cannot be found elsewhere.

This paper characterizes the influence of synoptic-scale air mass conditions on spatial and temporal patterns of precipitation in North Carolina over a 16-year period (2003-2018). National Center for Environmental Prediction Stage IV multi-sensor precipitation estimates were used to describe seasonal variations in precipitation in the context of prevailing air mass conditions classified using the spatial synoptic classification system. Spatial analyses identified significant clustering of high daily precipitation amounts distributed along the east side of the Appalachian Mountains and along the coastal plains. Significant and heterogeneous clustering was prevalent in summer months and tended to coincide with land cover boundaries and complex terrain. The summer months were dominated by maritime tropical air mass conditions whereas dry moderate air mass conditions prevailed in the winter, spring, and fall. Between the three geographic regions of North Carolina, highest precipitation amounts were received in western North Carolina during the winter and spring, and in eastern North Carolina in the summer and fall. Central North Carolina received the least amount of precipitation; however, there was substantial variability between regions due to prevailing air mass conditions. There was an observed shift toward warmer and more humid air mass conditions in the winter, spring, and fall months throughout the study period (2003-2018), indicating a shift toward air mass conditions conducive to higher daily average rain rates in North Carolina.

Chemical processing of organic material in aqueous atmospheric aerosols and cloudwater is known to form secondary organic aerosols (SOA), although the extent to which each of these processes contributes to total aerosol mass is unclear. In this study, we use GAMMA 5.0, a photochemical box model with coupled gas and aqueous-phase chemistry, to consider the impact of aqueous organic reactions in both aqueous aerosols and clouds on isoprene epoxydiol (IEPOX) SOA over a range of pH for both aqueous phases, including cycling between cloud and aerosol within a single simulation. Low-pH aqueous aerosol, in the absence of organic coatings or other morphology which may limit uptake of IEPOX, is found to be an efficient source of IEPOX SOA, consistent with previous work. Cloudwater at pH 4 or lower is also found to be a potentially significant source of IEPOX SOA. This phenomenon is primarily attributed to the relatively high uptake of IEPOX to clouds as a result of higher water content in clouds as compared to aerosol. For more acidic cloudwater, the aqueous organic material is comprised primarily of IEPOX SOA and lower-volatility organic acids. For both cloudwater and aqueous aerosol, pH is the most significant factor considered in this study in determining the mass of aqueous phase organic acids and IEPOX SOA. Other factors, such as the time of day or sequence of aerosol-to-cloud or cloud-to-aerosol transitions, contribute to less than 15% difference in the final aqSOA fractional composition. The potential significance of cloud processing as a contributor to IEPOX SOA production could account for discrepancies between predicted IEPOX SOA mass from atmospheric models and measured ambient IEPOX SOA mass, or observations of IEPOX SOA in locations where mass transfer limitations are expected in aerosol particles.

An open source computational fluid dynamics (CFD) solver has been incorporated into the WindNinja modeling framework widely used by wildland fire managers as well as researchers and practitioners in other fields, such as wind energy, wind erosion, and search and rescue. Here we describe incorporation of the CFD solver and evaluate its performance compared to the conservation of mass (COM) solver in WindNinja and previously published large-eddy simulations (LES) for three field campaigns conducted over isolated terrain obstacles of varying terrain complexity: Askervein Hill, Bolund Hill, and Big Southern Butte. We also compare the effects of two important model settings in the CFD solver and provide guidance on model sensitivity to these settings. Additionally, we investigate the computational mesh and difficulties regarding terrain representation. Two important findings from this work are: (1) the choice of discretization scheme for advection has a significantly larger effect on the simulated winds than the choice of turbulence model and (2) CFD solver predictions are significantly better than the COM solver predictions at windward and lee side observation locations, but no difference was found in predicted speed-up at ridgetop locations between the two solvers.

The 24 September 2001 College Park, Maryland, tornado was a long-track and strong tornado that passed within a close range of two Doppler radars. It was the third in a series of three tornadoes associated with a supercell storm that developed in Stafford County, Virginia, and initiated 3 - 4 km southwest of College Park and dissipated near Columbia, Howard County. The supercell tracked approximately 120 km and lasted for about 126 minutes. This study presents a synoptic and mesoscale overview of favorable conditions and forcing mechanisms that resulted in the severe convective outbreak associated with the College Park tornado. Results show many critical elements of the tornadic event, including a negative-tilted upper-level trough over the Ohio Valley, a jet stream with moderate vertical shear, a low-level warm, moist tongue of the air associated with strong southerly flow over south-central Maryland and Virginia, and significantly increased convective available potential energy (CAPE) during the late afternoon hours. A possible role of the urban heat island effects from Washington, DC in increasing CAPE for the development of the supercell is discussed. Satellite imagery reveals banded convective morphology with high cloud tops associated with the supercell that produced the College Park tornado. Operational WSR-88D data exhibits a high reflectivity “debris ball” or tornadic debris signature (TDS) within the hook echo, the evolution of the parent storm from a supercell structure to a bow echo, and a tornado cyclone signature (TCS). Many of the mesoscale features could be captured by contemporary numerical model analyses. This study concludes with a discussion of the effectiveness of the coordinated use of satellite and radar observations in the operational environment of nowcasting severe convection.

Land surface temperature (LST) is a key variable in surface-atmosphere energy and water exchanges. The main goals of this study are to (i) evaluate the LST of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) ERA-Interim and ERA5 reanalyses over Iberian Peninsula using the Satellite Application Facility on Land Surface Analysis (LSA-SAF) product and to (ii) understand the main drivers of the LST errors in the reanalysis. Simulations with the ECMWF land-surface model in offline mode (uncoupled) were carried out over the Iberian Peninsula and compared with the reanalysis data. Several sensitivity simulations were performed in a confined domain centered in Southern Portugal to investigate potential sources of the LST errors. The Copernicus Global Land Service (CGLS) fraction of green vegetation cover (FCover) and the European Space Agency’s Climate Change Initiative (ESA-CCI) Land Cover dataset were explored. We found a general underestimation of daytime LST and slightly overestimation at night-time. The results indicate that there is still room for improvement in the simulation of LST in ECMWF products. Still, ERA5 presents an overall higher quality product in relation to ERA-Interim. Our analysis suggested a relation between the large daytime cold bias and vegetation cover differences between (ERA5 and CGLS FCocver) with a correlation of -0.45. The replacement of the low and high vegetation cover by those of ESA-CCI provided an overall reduction of the large Tmax biases during summer. The increased vertical resolution of the soil at the surface, has a positive impact, but much smaller when compared with the vegetation changes. The sensitivity of the vegetation density parameter, that currently depends on the vegetation type, provided further proof for a needed revision of the vegetation in the model, as there is a reasonable correlation between this parameter and the Tmax mean errors when using the ESA-CCI vegetation cover (while the same correlation cannot be reproduced with the original model vegetation). Our results support the hypothesis that vegetation cover is one of the main drivers of the LST summertime cold bias in ERA5 over Iberian Peninsula.

The present study uses the 3 years of data from a vertically pointed profile Radar (VPPR) at the mountain site (Huancayo at 3.2 km msl; HYO) in Peru to investigate the precipitation characteristics/patterns including diurnal variation, bright band (BB) characteristics and vertical structure of rain (VSR). VPPR provides continuous 1­min profiles of radar reflectivity (Ze), rain rate (RR), liquid water content (LWC) and Doppler velocity. At the same time, field campaign data are used to investigate the role of the surface and atmospheric variables in generating the rainfall and organization of the cloud systems over HYO. The precipitation shows the bimodal distribution; frequent and higher RR during afternoon and nighttime. The BB height also shows a diurnal pattern and BB height is higher during the afternoon and nighttime compared; and follows the diurnal heating of the Andes. More than 70% BB height lies between ~4.3­4.7 km and only 20% BB has altitude higher than 5 km. The austral summer monsoon (December to March months) have higher intense vertical profiles (higher Z e ) compared to pre monsoon seasons (September to November) and shows the nega­tive gradient for most of the altitude. The RR and LWC show the opposite characteristics, and both have a positive gradient below the 6 km altitude and then negative gradient above 6 km altitude. The raindrop size distribution (DSD) parameters show most of the variation below the freezing level, and a higher concentra­tion of large sized of hydrometeors are observed for higher RR, however the dominant modes of Dm are less than 1 mm. The changes in the VSR in DSD parameters are significant for the RR>20 mm/h, whereas for RR<2 mm/h the vertical structure in DSD parameters do not have much differences during monsoon and premonsoon seasons. Satellite and reanalysis data reveal the short periods of convective activity with higher ac­ cumulated rainfall over HYO compared to stratiform precipitation, which is more common in the nighttime and sustain for many hours. Wet spells (higher rainy days) have low pressure circulation, which favours the transport of moisture from the Amazon to the central Sierra of Peru, while the anticyclonic circulation at high levels favours the divergence at higher pressure levels and, enhances the convective in the region. During the dry spells, low level weaker circulation at the west of Brazil, restricts the transport of moisture to the central Sierra, while the circulation at high levels does not favor rain processes. The improved understanding of the tropical Andes precipitation would be very important for assessing climate variability and changes as well as to forecast precipitation using the numerical models.

The gap in knowledge regarding the radiative effects of aerosols in the UV region of the solar spectrum is large, mainly due to the lack of systematic measurements of the aerosol single scattering albedo (SSA) and absorption optical depth (AAOD). In the present study, spectral UV measurements performed in Thessaloniki, Greece by a double monochromator Brewer spectrophotometer in the period 1998 - 2017 are used for the calculation of the aforementioned optical properties. The main uncertainty factors have been described and there is an effort to quantify the overall uncertainties in SSA and AAOD. Analysis of the results suggests that the absorption by aerosols is much stronger in the UV relative to the visible. SSA follows a clear annual pattern ranging from ~0.7 in winter to ~0.85 in summer at wavelengths 320 – 360 nm, while AAOD peaks in summer and winter. The average AAOD for 2009 – 2011 is ~50% above the 2003 – 2006 average, possibly due to increased emissions of absorbing aerosols related to the economical crisis and the metro-railway construction works in the city center. A detailed analysis of the uncertainties in the retrieval of the SSA and the AAOD from the Brewer spectrophotometer has been also performed.

Tornadoes remain an active subject of observational and numerical research due to the damage and fatalities they cause worldwide as well as poor understanding of their behavior, such as what processes result in their genesis and what determines their longevity and morphology. A numerical model executed on a supercomputer run at high resolution can serve as a powerful tool for exploring the rapidly evolving tornado-scale features within a simulated storm, but saving large amounts data for meaningful analysis can result in unacceptably slow model performance, an unwieldy amount of saved data, and saved data spread across millions of files. In this paper, a system for efficiently saving and managing hundreds of terabytes of compressed model output is described in order to support a supercomputer simulation of a tornadic supercell thunderstorm. The challenges of managing a simulation spanning over a quarter trillion grid volumes across the Blue Waters supercomputer are also described. The simulated supercell produces a long-track EF5 tornado, and the near-tornado environment is described during tornadogenesis, where single upward-growing vortex undergoes several vortex mergers before transitioning into a multiple vortex tornado.

Ocean surface heat fluxes play a significant role in the genesis and evolution of various marine-based atmospheric phenomena, from the synoptic scale down to the microscale. While in-situ measurements from buoys and flux towers will continue to be the standard in regards to surface heat flux estimates, they commonly have significant gaps in temporal and spatial coverage. Previous and current satellite missions have filled these gaps; though they may not observe the fluxes directly, they can measure the variables needed (wind speed, temperature, and humidity) to estimate latent and sensible heat fluxes. However, current remote sensing instruments have their own limitations, such as infrequent coverage, signals attenuated by precipitation, or both. The Cyclone Global Navigation Satellite System (CYGNSS) mission overcomes these limitations over the tropical and subtropical oceans by providing improved coverage in nearly all weather conditions. While CYGNSS (Level 2) primarily estimates surface winds, when coupled with observations or estimates of temperature and humidity from reanalysis data, it can provide estimates of latent and sensible heat fluxes along its orbit. This paper describes the development of the Surface Heat Flux Product for the CYGNSS mission, its current results, and expected improvements and changes in future releases.

This paper characterizes the influence of synoptic-scale airmass conditions on spatial and temporal patterns of precipitation in North Carolina over a 16-year period (2003-2018). National Center for Environmental Prediction Stage IV multi-sensor precipitation estimates were used to describe seasonal variations in precipitation in the context of prevailing airmass conditions classified using the spatial synoptic classification system. Spatial analyses identified significant clustering of high daily average precipitation amounts distributed along the lee side of the Appalachian Mountains and along the coastal plains. Significant and heterogenous clustering was prevalent in summer months and tended to coincide with land cover boundaries and complex terrain. Between the three geographic regions of North Carolina, highest precipitations amounts were received in western North Carolina during the winter and spring, but this signal shifted to eastern North Carolina in the summer and fall. Central North Carolina received the least amount of precipitation; however, there was substantial variability between regions due to prevailing airmass conditions. The summer months were dominated by maritime tropical airmass conditions with no clear shift in summertime airmass trends over the study period. Most days with recorded precipitation in the winter, spring, and fall occurred under dry moderate airmass conditions; however, the highest daily average precipitation and total precipitation occurred under the influence of maritime moderate airmasses. Importantly, there was an observed shift toward warmer and more humid airmass conditions in the winter, spring, and fall months throughout the study period (2003-2018), indicating a shift toward airmass conditions conducive to higher daily average rain rates in North Carolina.

Coastal rural areas can be a source of elemental mercury, but the potential influence of their topographic and climatic particularities on gaseous elemental mercury (GEM) fluxes have not been investigated extensively. In this study gaseous elemental mercury was measured over Mediterranean coastal grassland located at Northern Greece from 2014 to 2015 and GEM fluxes were evaluated utilizing Monin-Obukhov similarity theory. The GEM fluxes ranged from -50.30 to 109.695 ng m-2 h-1 with a mean value equal to 10.501 ng m-2 h-1 ± 19.14 ng m-2 h-1. Concerning the peak events, with high positive and low negative GEM fluxes, those were recorded from the morning until the evening. Rain events were a strong contributing factor for enhanced GEM fluxes. The enhanced turbulent mixing under daytime unstable conditions led to greater evasion and positive GEM fluxes while during nighttime periods the GEM evasion is lower indicating the effect of atmospheric stability on GEM fluxes. The coastal grassland with its specific characteristics influences the GEM fluxes and this area could be characterized as source of elemental mercury. This study is one of the rare efforts in the research community to estimate GEM fluxes in a coastal natural site based on aerodynamic gradient method.

Improvements that can be attained in seasonal climate predictions in various parts of Africa using the multimodel supersensemble scheme are presented in this study. The synthetic superensemble (SSE) used follows the approach originally developed at Florida State University (FSU). The technique takes more advantage of the skill in the climate forecast data sets from atmosphere-ocean general circulation models running at many centres worldwide including the WMO global producing centers (GPCs). The module used in this work drew data sets from the Four versions of FSU coupled model system, seven models from the DEMETER project which is the forerun to the current European Ensembles Forecast System, the NCAR Model, and the Predictive Ocean Atmosphere Model for Australia (POAMA), all making a set of 13 individual models. An archive consisting of monthly simulations of precipitation was available over all the 5 regions of Africa, namely Eastern, Central, Northern, Southern, and Western Africa. The results showed that the SSE forecast for precipitation carries a higher skill compared to each of the member models and the ensemble mean. Relative to the ensemble mean (EM), the SSE provides an improvement of 18% in simulation of season cycle of precipitation climatology. In Eastern Africa, during December-February season, a north-south gradient of precipitation prevails between Tropical East Africa and the sector of the region towards Southern Africa. This regional scale climate pattern is a direct influence of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITZC) across the African continent during this time of the year. The SSE emerges with superior skill scores such as lowest root mean square error above the EM and the member models, for example in the prediction of spatial location and precipitation magnitudes that characterize the see-saw precipitation pattern in Eastern Africa. In all parts of Africa, and especially Eastern Africa where seasonal precipitation variability is a frequent cause huge human suffering in due to droughts and famine, the multimodel superensemble and its subsequent improvements will always provide a forecast that out weighs the best Atmosphere-Ocean Climate Model.

Atmospheric Motion Vectors (AMVs) calculated by six different institutions (Brazil Center for Weather Prediction and Climate Studies/CPTEC/INPE, European Organization for the Exploitation of Meteorological Satellites/EUMETSAT, Japan Meteorological Agency/JMA, Korea Meteorological Administration/KMA, Unites States National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration/NOAA and the Satellite Application Facility on Support to Nowcasting/NWCSAF) with JMA’s Himawari-8 satellite data and other common input data are here compared. The comparison is based on two different AMV input datasets, calculated with two different image triplets for 21 July 2016, and the use of a prescribed and a specific configuration. The main results of the study are summarized as follows: (1) the differences in the AMV datasets depend very much on the “AMV height assignment” used and much less on the use of a prescribed or specific configuration; (2) the use of the “Common Quality Indicator (CQI)” has a quantified skill in filtering collocated AMVs for an improved statistical agreement between centers; (3) JMA AMV algorithm has the best overall performance considering all validation metrics, most likely due to its height assignment: “optimal estimation using observed radiance and NWP wind vertical profile”.

This study proposes a new algorithm termed rain cell identification and tracking (RCIT) to identify and track rain cells from high resolution weather radar data. Previous algorithms have limitations when tracking non-consequent rain cells owing to their use of maximum correlation coefficient methods and their lack of an alternative way to handle the variation stages of rain cells during their life cycles. To address these deficiencies, various methods are implemented in the new algorithm. These include the particle image velocimetry (PIV) method for motion estimation and the rain cell matching rule to obtain the stage changes of rain cells. High resolution (5-min and 1-km) radar reflectivity data from three rainy days over the German federal state North Rhine Westphalia (NRW) are used to evaluate the proposed algorithm. The performance of the new algorithm is compared with a radar reflectivity map and verified by two object-oriented methods: structure–amplitude–location (SAL) and geometric index. The verification results suggest that the performance of the new algorithm is good. Application of the RCIT algorithm to the selected cases shows that the inner structure of rainfall events in the experimental region present extreme value distributions, with most rainfall events having a short duration with less intensity. The new algorithm can effectively capture the stage changes of rain cells during their life cycles. The proposed algorithm can serve as the basis for further hydro-meteorological applications such as spatial and temporal analysis of rainfall events and short-term flood forecasting.

In the context of the French-German space lidar mission MERLIN dedicated to the determination of the atmospheric methane content, an end-to-end mission simulator is being developed. In order to check whether the instrument design meets the performance requirements, simulations have to count all the sources of noise on the measurements like the optical energy variability induced by speckle. Speckle is due to interference as the lidar beam are quasi monochromatic. Speckle contribution to the error budget has to be estimated but also simulated. In this paper, the speckle theory is revisited and applied to MERLIN double pulsed IPDA lidar and also to the DLR demonstrator CHARM-F. Results show: on the signal path, speckle noise depends mainly on the size of the illuminating area on ground; on the solar flux, speckle is fully negligible both because the pixel size and the optical filter spectral width; on energy monitoring path a decorrelation mechanism is needed to reduce speckle noise on averaged data. Speckle noises for MERLIN and CHARM-F can be simulated by Gaussian noises with only one random draw by shot separately for energy monitoring and signal paths.

Visualization is an essential tool for analysis of data and communication of findings in the sciences, and the Earth System Science (ESS) are no exception. However, within ESS specialized visualization requirements and data models --- particularly for those data arising from numerical models --- often make general-purpose visualization packages difficult, if not impossible, to effectively use. This paper presents VAPOR: a domain-specific visualization package that targets the specialized needs of ESS modelers, particularly those working in research settings where highly interactive exploratory visualization is beneficial. We specifically describe VAPOR’s ability to handle ESS simulation data from a wide variety of numerical models, as well as a multi-resolution representation that enables interactive visualization on very large data while using only commodity computing resources. We also describe VAPOR’s visualization capabilities, paying particular attention to features for geo-referenced data and advanced rendering algorithms suitable for time-varying, 3D data. Finally, we illustrate VAPOR's utility in the study of a numerically simulated tornado. Our results demonstrate both ease-of-use and the rich capabilities of VAPOR in such a use case.

The “NWCSAF High Resolution Winds (NWC/GEO-HRW)” software is developed by the EUMETSAT’s “Satellite Application Facility on support to Nowcasting and very short range forecasting (NWCSAF)”, inside its stand-alone software package for calculation of meteorological products with geostationary satellite data (NWC/GEO). The whole NWC/GEO software package can be obtained after registration at the NWCSAF Helpdesk, www.nwcsaf.org. It is easy to get, install and use. The code is easy to read and fully documented. And in the NWCSAF Helpdesk, users find support and help for its use. “NWCSAF High Resolution Winds” provides a detailed calculation of Atmospheric Motion Vectors (AMVs) and Trajectories, locally and in near real time, using as input NWP model data and geostationary satellite image data. The latest version of the software, v2018, is able to process MSG, Himawari-8/9, GOES-N and GOES-R satellite series images, so that AMVs and Trajectories can be calculated all throughout the planet Earth with the same algorithm and quality. In the “2014 and 2018 AMV Intercomparison Studies”, “NWCSAF High Resolution Winds” has shown to be one of the two best AMV algorithms for both MSG and Himawari-8/9 satellites. And the “Coordination Group for Meteorological Satellites (CGMS)” has recognized in its “2012 Meeting Report”: 1. “NWCSAF High Resolution Winds” fulfills the requirements to be a portable stand-alone AMV calculation software due to its easy installation and usability. 2. It has been successfully adapted by some CGMS members and serves as an important tool for development. It is modular, well documented, and well suited as stand-alone AMV software. 3. Although alternatives exist as portable stand-alone AMV calculation software, they are not as advanced in terms of documentation and do not have an existing Helpdesk. Considering this, a full description and validation of the “NWCSAF/High Resolution Winds” is shown here for the first time in a peer-reviewed paper. The procedure to obtain the software for operational meteorology and research is also explained.

The contribution of extra-tropical synoptic cyclones to the formation of summer-mean atmospheric circulation patterns in the Arctic is investigated by clustering the dominant Arctic circulation patterns by the self-organizing maps (SOMs) using the daily mean sea level pressure (MSLP) in the Arctic domain (≥ 60°N). Three SOM patterns are identified: one with prevalent low pressure anomalies in the Arctic Circle (SOM1) and two opposite dipoles with primary high pressure anomalies covering the Arctic Ocean (SOM2 and SOM3). The time series of summertime occurrence frequencies demonstrate the largest inter-annual variation in the SOM1, the slight decreasing trend in the SOM2, and the abrupt upswing after 2007 in the SOM3. The relevant analyses with produced cyclone track data confirm that the vital contribution. The Arctic cyclone activity is enhanced in the SOM1 because the meridional temperature gradient increases over the land–Arctic Ocean boundaries co-located with major extra-tropical cyclone pathways. The composite daily synoptic evolutions for each SOM reveal that the persistence of all the three SOMs is less than 5 days on average. These evolutionary short-term weather patterns have substantial variability at inter-annual and longer timescales. Therefore, the synoptic-scale activity is central to forming the seasonal-mean climate of the Arctic.

The 24 September 2001 College Park, Maryland, tornado was a long track and strong tornado that passed within a close range of two Doppler radars. It was the third in a series of three tornadoes associated with a supercell storm that developed in Stafford County, Virginia, and initiated 3 - 4 km southwest of College Park and dissipated near Columbia, Howard County. The supercell tracked approximately 120 km and lasted for about 126 minutes. This study presents a synoptic and mesoscale overview of favorable conditions and forcing mechanisms that resulted in the severe convective outbreak associated with the College Park tornado. Results show many critical elements of the tornadic event, including a negative-tilted upper-level trough over the Ohio Valley, a jet stream with moderate vertical shear, a warm, moist tongue of the air associated with strong southerly flow over south-central Maryland and Virginia, and significantly increased convective available potential energy during the late afternoon hours. Satellite imagery reveals banded convective morphology with high cloud tops associated with the supercell that produced the College Park tornado. Operational WSR-88D data exhibits a high reflectivity “debris ball” or tornadic debris signature (TDS) within the hook echo, the evolution of the parent storm from a supercell structure to a bow echo, and a tornado cyclone signature (TCS). Many of the mesoscale environmental features could be captured by contemporary numerical model analyses. This study concludes with a discussion of the effectiveness of the coordinated use of satellite and radar observations in the operational environment of nowcasting severe convection.

This study analyses uncertainties associated with the annual cycle of West African rainfall characteristics in 15 simulations of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) over the Sahel and Guinean regions. Indices based on daily rainfall such as the frequency and the ntensity of wet days, the consecutive dry days (CDD) and wet days (CWD), the 95th percentile of daily rainfall (R95) and its contribution to the umulative monsoon rainfall (R95PTOT) have been assessed. Over both regions, TRMM, GPCP and CHIRPS observational datasets provide very consistent results on the annual cycle of precipitation but less so on the frequency of wet days. Conversely, higher uncertainties are noted on the intensity of wet days over both study areas, particularly over the Guinean region. Overall, CMIP5 simulations present much higher uncertainties in the representation of the mean precipitation climatology, often provide too early (late) onset dates over the Sahel (the Guinean region) and overestimate rainfall during the early and late monsoon phases. These errors do not compensate at the annual scale nor when considering West Africa as a hole. Results also reveal that over the Guinean region, the difficulty of models to represent the annual structure of the mean precipitation strongly involves biases in the representation of the annual cycle of the frequency of wet days. We found strong uncertainties in the simulation of the CWD and he CDD over both areas. Conversely for R95 and R95PTOT, the ncertainties in CMIP5 models appear somewhat weaker, but the magnitude of R95 is largely underestimated in most models.

This study analyses uncertainties associated with the annual cycle of West African rainfall characteristics in 15 simulations of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) over the Sahel and Guinean regions. Indices based on daily rainfall such as the frequency and the ntensity of wet days, the consecutive dry days (CDD) and wet days (CWD), the 95th percentile of daily rainfall (R95) and its contribution to the umulative monsoon rainfall (R95PTOT) have been assessed. Over both regions, TRMM, GPCP and CHIRPS observational datasets provide very consistent results on the annual cycle of precipitation but less so on the frequency of wet days. Conversely, higher uncertainties are noted on the intensity of wet days over both study areas, particularly over the Guinean region. Overall, CMIP5 simulations present much higher uncertainties in the representation of the mean precipitation climatology, often provide too early (late) onset dates over the Sahel (the Guinean region) and overestimate rainfall during the early and late monsoon phases. These errors do not compensate at the annual scale nor when considering West Africa as a hole. Results also reveal that over the Guinean region, the difficulty of models to represent the annual structure of the mean precipitation strongly involves biases in the representation of the annual cycle of the frequency of wet days. We found strong uncertainties in the simulation of the CWD and he CDD over both areas. Conversely for R95p and R95PTOT, the ncertainties in CMIP5 models appear somewhat weaker, but the magnitude f R95 is largely underestimated in most models.

AIUS (Atmospheric Infrared Ultraspectral Sounder) is an infrared occultation spectrometer onboard the Chinese GaoFen-5 satellite, which covers a spectral range of 2.4--13.3 μm (750--4100 cm-1) with a spectral resolution of about 0.02 cm-1. AIUS was designed to measure and to study chemical processes of ozone (O3) and other trace gases in the upper troposphere and stratosphere over Antarctic. In this study, the corresponding retrieval methodology is described. The comparison between AIUS measurements and simulated spectra illustrates that AIUS measurements agree well to the simulated spectra. To first evaluate the reliability of our retrieval algorithm, three retrieval O3 experiments are performed based on ACE-FTS observation spectra. A comparison between our retrieved profiles and the ACE-FTS official products shows that the relative difference of these three retrieval experiments is mostly within 10% between 20 km and 70 km. These retrieval experiments demonstrate that the retrieval algorithm described in this study work fine and reliable. Furthermore, O3, H2O and HCl profiles are retrieved from eight orbits of AIUS measurements and compared with the official AURA/MLS level-2 v4.2 profiles. Comparison experiments show that the relative difference is mostly within 10% (about 0.02 - 0.4 ppm) between 18 and 58 km for O3 retrieval, within 10% (0-0.5 ppm) between 15 and 80 km for H2O retrieval, and within 10% (about 0.1 ppb) between 30 and 60 km for HCl retrieval. There is a good agreement in the retrieved trace gas profiles obtained from AIUS and from coincident profiles from MLS.

Radiation is the major driver of snowmelt, and hence its estimation is critically important. Net radiation reaching the forest floor is influenced by vegetation density. Previous studies in mid-latitude conifer forests have confirmed that net radiation decreases and then subsequently increases with increasing vegetation density, for clear sky conditions. This leads to existence of a net radiation minimum at an intermediate vegetation density. With increasing cloud cover, the minimum radiation shifts toward lower densities, sometimes resulting in a monotonically increasing radiation with vegetation density. The net radiation trend, however, is expected to change across sites, affecting the magnitude and timing of individual radiation components. This research explores the variability of net radiation on snow-covered forest floor for different vegetation densities along a latitudinal gradient. We especially investigate how the magnitude of minimum/maximum radiation and the corresponding vegetation density change with the site geographical location. To evaluate these, the net radiation is evaluated using the Forest Radiation Model at six different locations in predominantly white spruce (Picea glauca) canopy cover across North America, ranging from 45 to 66°N latitudes. Results show that the variation of net radiation with vegetation density considerably varies with latitude. In higher latitude forests, the magnitude of net radiation is generally smaller, and the minimum radiation is exhibited at relatively sparser vegetation densities, under clear sky conditions. For interspersed cloudy sky conditions, net radiation non-monotonically varies with latitude across the sites, depending on the seasonal sky cloudiness and air temperature. Latitudinal sensitivity of net radiation is lower on north-facing hillslopes than on south-facing sites.

The Sentinel Application Platform (SNAP) architecture facilitates Earth Observation data processing (http://step.esa.int/main/toolboxes/snap/). In this work we present results from a new Snow Processor for SNAP. We also describe physical principles behind the developed snow property retrieval technique based on the analysis of Ocean and Land Colour Instrument (OLCI) onboard Sentinel-3A/B measurements over clean and polluted snow fields. Using OLCI spectral reflectance measurements in the range 400-1020nm, we derive important snow properties such as spectral and broadband albedo, snow specific surface area, snow extent and grain size on the spatial grid of 300m. The algorithm also incorporates cloud screening and atmospheric correction procedures over snow surfaces. We present validation results using ground measurements from Antarctica, the Greenland ice sheet and the French Alps. We find the spectral albedo retrieved with accuracy of better than 3% on average, making our retrievals sufficient for a variety of applications. Broadband albedo is retrieved with the average accuracy of about 5% over snow. Therefore, the uncertainties of satellite retrievals are close to experimental errors of ground measurements. The retrieved surface grain size shows good agreement with ground observations. Snow specific surface area observations are also consistent with our OLCI retrievals. We present snow albedo and grain size mapping over the inland ice sheet of Greenland for areas including dry snow, melted/melting snow and impurity rich bare ice. The algorithm can be applied to OLCI Sentinel-3 measurements providing an opportunity for creation of long – term snow property records essential for climate monitoring and data assimilation studies - especially in the Arctic region, where we face rapid environmental changes including reduction of snow/ice extent and, therefore, planetary albedo.

This manuscript examines from the diurnal convection cycle (CDC) to the interdecadal variability in the region of the Peruvian Altiplano (RAP). Currently, estimating precipitation using satellites is an alternative which can be used to study the spatio-temporal evolution of precipitation systems. Herein CPC data Morphing technique - CMORPH (Joyce et al, 2004) was used between 2002 and 2014 to analyze the CDC in RAP. The CMOPRH data were compared with rainfall data series measured by rain gauges of meteorological stations (EMS) in the RAP. The results indicate that the CDC shows high variability in the Titicaca Basin and is associated with patterns of lake breeze (day), land breeze (night) and mountain - valley circulation. The CDC starts at 1800 HL (local time) in the northern region of Lake Titicaca, lasting between 2 h and 6 h, and most of 2000 HL. The CDC over the dry surface (ST) of Titicaca Basin starts early at around 1200 HL, lasting 4 h to 7 h, and maximum at 1800 HL.

The increasing spatial and spectral resolution of hyperspectral imagers yields detailed spectroscopy measurements from both space-based and airborne platforms. Machine learning algorithms have achieved state-of-the-art material classification performance on benchmark hyperspectral data sets; however, these techniques often do not consider varying atmospheric conditions experienced in a real-world detection scenario. To reduce the impact of atmospheric effects in the at-sensor signal, atmospheric compensation must be performed. Radiative Transfer (RT) modeling can generate high-fidelity atmospheric estimates at detailed spectral resolutions, but is often too time-consuming for real-time detection scenarios. This research utilizes machine learning methods to perform dimension reduction on the transmittance, upwelling radiance, and downwelling radiance (TUD) data to create high accuracy atmospheric estimates with lower computational cost than RT modeling. The utility of this approach is investigated using the instrument line shape for the Mako long-wave infrared hyperspectral sensor. This study employs physics-based metrics and loss functions to identify promising dimension reduction techniques. As a result, TUD vectors can be produced in real-time allowing for atmospheric compensation across diverse remote sensing scenarios.

Among other applications, radar-rainfall (RR) and QPE (Quantitative Precipitation Estimation) based on radar reflectivity, dual polarization variables, and multi-sensor information, provide important information for land surface hydrology, such as flood forecasting. Therefore, we developed a flood alert system using rainfall-runoff model forced with RR and QPE, and tipping-bucket observations to forecast river water levels (using rating-curves). In this study, we used an hourly dataset from an S-Band dual-polarimetric radar with two tropical R(Z) relations based distrometer data, a polarimetric R(Z,ZDR) algorithm from the literature and a multi-sensor approach using radar, satellite and rain gauge. Two hydrological models were used and calibrated using observed discharge time-series. Although our previous studies indicated accurate RR-based simulations, in some cases floods were not detected when using catchment-lumped rainfall derived from multi-sensor QPE. In this study, we advance further in this subject using improved R(Z,ZDR) relations and QPE for the period of 2016-2017 and flood event-based rainfall-runoff calibration. Thus, we focused on the development (and timing) of floods in the Marrecas River can be complex and strongly related to storms spatiotemporal distribution. To explore this aspect, we also perform a first analysis in using RR in rainfall-runoff model with a nested catchment discretization.

The 24 September 2001 College Park, Maryland, tornado was a long-tracked and violent tornado that passed within a close range of two Doppler radars. It was the third in a series of three tornadoes associated with a supercell storm that developed in Stafford County, Virginia, and initiated 3 - 4 km southwest of College Park and dissipated near Columbia, Howard County. The supercell tracked approximately 120 km and lasted for about 126 minutes. This study presents a synoptic and mesoscale overview of favorable conditions and forcing mechanisms that resulted in the severe convective outbreak associated with the College Park tornado. Results show many critical elements of the tornadic event, including a negative-tilted upper-level trough over the Ohio Valley, a jet stream with moderate vertical shear, a warm, moist tongue of the air associated with strong southerly flow over south-central Maryland and Virginia, and significantly increased convective available potential energy during the late afternoon hours. Satellite imagery reveals banded convective morphology with high cloud tops associated with the supercell that produced the College Park tornado. Operational WSR-88D data exhibits a high reflectivity “debris ball” or tornadic debris signature (TDS) within the hook echo, the evolution of the parent storm from a supercell structure to a bow echo, and a tornado cyclone signature (TCS). Many of the mesoscale environmental features could be captured by contemporary numerical model analyses. This study concludes with a discussion of the effectiveness of the coordinated use of satellite and radar observations in the operational environment of nowcasting severe convection.

Residential coal combustion is one of the most significant sources of carbonaceous aerosols in the Highveld region of South Africa, significantly affecting the local and regional climate. In this study, we investigated single coal-burning particles emitted when using different fire-ignition techniques (top-lit up-draft vs bottom-lit up-draft) and air ventilation rates (defined by the number of air holes above and below the fire grate) in selected informal braziers. Aerosol samples were collected on nucleopore filters at the Sustainable Energy Technology and Research Centre Laboratory, University of Johannesburg. Individual particles (~700) were investigated using a scanning electron microscope equipped with energy-dispersive X-ray spectroscopy (EDS). Two distinct forms of spherical organic particles (SOPs) were identified, one less oxidized than the other. The particles were further classified into "electronically" dark and bright. EDS analysis showed that 70% of the dark spherical organic particles had higher (~60%) relative oxygen content than in the bright SOPs. We quantified the morphology of spherical organic particles and classified them into four categories: ~50% are bare single particles; ~35% particles are aggregated and form diffusion accretion chains; 10% have inclusions, and 5% are deformed due to impaction on filter material during sampling. We conclude that there are two distinct kinds of coal burning spherical organic particles and that dark SOPs are less volatile than bright SOPs. We also show that these spherical organic particles are similar in nature and characteristics to tar balls observed in biomass combustion and that they have the potential to absorb sunlight thereby affecting the earth’s radiative budget and climate. This study provides insights into the mixing states, morphology, and possible formation mechanisms of these organic particles from residential coal combustion in informal stoves.

The assimilation of Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity (SMOS) data into the ECMWF (European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts) H-TESSEL (Hydrology revised - Tiled ECMWF Scheme for Surface Exchanges over Land) model is presented. SMOS soil moisture (SM) estimates have been produced specifically by training a neural network with SMOS brightness temperatures as input and H-TESSEL model SM simulations as reference. This can help the assimilation of SMOS information in several ways: (1) the neural network soil moisture (NNSM) data have a similar climatology to the model, (2) no global bias is present with respect to the model even if regional differences can exist. Experiments performing joint data assimilation (DA) of NNSM, 2 metre air temperature and relative humidity or NNSM-only DA are discussed. The resulting SM was evaluated against a large number of in situ measurements of SM obtaining similar results to those of the model with no assimilation, even if significant differences were found from site to site. In addition, atmospheric forecasts initialized with H-TESSEL runs (without DA) or with the analysed SM were compared to measure of the impact of the satellite information. Although, NNSM DA has an overall neutral impact in the forecast in the Tropics, a significant positive impact was found in other areas and periods, especially in regions with limited in situ information. The joint NNSM, T2m and RH2m DA improves the forecast for all the seasons in the Southern Hemisphere. The impact is mostly due to T2m and RH2m, but SMOS NN DA alone also improves the forecast in July- September. In the Northern Hemisphere, the joint NNSM, T2m and RH2m DA improves the forecast in April-September, while NNSM alone has a significant positive effect in July-September. Furthermore, forecasting skill maps show that SMOS NNSM improves the forecast in North America and in Northern Asia for up to 72 hours lead time.

A convenient practical model for accurately estimating the total entropy (ΣSi) of atmospheric gases based on physical action is proposed. This realistic approach is fully consistent with statistical mechanics, but reinterprets its partition functions as measures of translational, rotational and vibrational action or quantum states, to estimate the entropy. With all kinds of molecular action expressed as logarithmic functions, the total heat required for warming a chemical system from 0o K (ΣSiT) to a given temperature and pressure can be computed, yielding results identical with published experimental third law values of entropy. All thermodynamic properties of gases including entropy, enthalpy, Gibbs energy and Helmholtz energy are directly estimated using simple algorithms based on simple molecular and physical properties, without resource to tables of standard values; both free energies are measures of quantum field states and of minimal statistical degeneracy, decreasing with temperature and declining density. We propose that this more realistic approach has heuristic value for thermodynamic computation of atmospheric profiles, based on steady state heat flows equilibrating with gravity. Potentially, this application of an action principle can provide better understanding of emergent properties of many natural or evolving complex systems, including modelling of predictions for global warming.

Stretching along the border of North Dakota and Minnesota, The Red River Valley (RRV) of the North has the highest frequency of reported blizzards within the contiguous United States. Despite the numerous impacts these events have, few systematic studies exist discussing the meteorological properties of blizzards. As a result, forecasting these events and lesser blowing snow events is an ongoing forecast challenge. This study presents a climatology of atmospheric patterns associated with RRV blizzards for the winter seasons of 1979-1980 to 2017-2018. Patterns were identified using subjective and objective techniques using meteorological fields from the North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR). The RRV experiences on average, 2.6 events per year. Blizzard frequency is bimodal with peaks occurring in December and March. The events can largely be typed into four meteorological categories dependent on the forcing that drives the blizzard: Alberta Clippers, Arctic Fronts, Colorado Lows, and Hybrids. Objective classification of these blizzards using a competitive neural network known as the Self-Organizing Map (SOM) demonstrates that gross segregation of the events can be achieved with a small (8-class) map. This implies that objective analysis techniques can be used to identify these events in weather and climate model output that may aid future forecasting and risk assessment projects.

Relationships between drought and fire danger indices are examined to 1) incorporate fire risk information into the National Integrated Drought Information System California-Nevada Drought Early Warning System and 2) provide a baseline analysis for application of drought indices into a fire risk management framework. We analyzed four drought indices that incorporate precipitation and evaporative demand (E₀) and three fire indices that reflect fuel moisture and potential fire intensity. Seasonally averaged fire danger indices were most strongly correlated to multi-scalar drought indices that use E₀ (the Evaporative Demand Drought Index [EDDI] and Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index [SPEI]) at approximately annual time scales that reflect buildup of antecedent drought conditions. Results indicate that EDDI and SPEI can inform seasonal fire potential outlooks at the beginning of summer. An E₀ decomposition case study of conditions prior to the Tubbs Fire in Northern California indicate high E₀ (97th percentile) driven predominantly by low humidity signaled increased fire potential several days before the start of the fire. Initial use of EDDI by fire management groups during summer and fall 2018 highlights several value-added applications, including seasonal fire potential outlooks, funding fire severity level requests, and assessing set-up conditions prior to large, explosive fire cases.

We evaluate the complexity of Colombian climate from extreme behavior of gauge temperature and precipitation, using the the novel Tsallis' non-extensive entropy principle based on physical information through the q-index. We find the spatial structure of non additive universal categories (q-index) and compare with some complex systems with the potential to have some degree of dynamical affinity. Our results evidence the great dynamical variability of regional climate expressed in the large range of values of $q$-index, and the high degree of non-extensitivity for both temperature and precipitation.

Relationships between drought and fire danger indices are examined to 1) incorporate fire risk information into the National Integrated Drought Information System California-Nevada Drought Early Warning System and 2) provide a baseline analysis for application of drought indices into a fire risk management framework. We analyzed four drought indices that incorporate precipitation and evaporative demand (E₀) and three fire indices that reflect fuel moisture and potential fire intensity. Seasonally averaged fire danger indices were most strongly correlated to multi-scalar drought indices that use E₀ (the Evaporative Demand Drought Index [EDDI] and Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index [SPEI]) at approximately annual time scales that reflect buildup of antecedent drought conditions. Results indicate that EDDI and SPEI can inform seasonal fire potential outlooks at the beginning of summer. An E₀ decomposition case study of conditions prior to the Tubbs Fire in Northern California indicate high E₀ (97th percentile) driven predominantly by low humidity signaled increased fire potential several days before the start of the fire. Initial use of EDDI by fire management groups during summer and fall 2018 highlights several value-added applications, including seasonal fire potential outlooks, funding fire severity level requests, and assessing set-up conditions prior to large, explosive fire cases.

Upper Blue Nile basin (UBNB) is the water tower of Ethiopia and downstream countries. It contributes significant moistures to the surrounding atmosphere. However, the contribution of the moisture from the basin to the precipitation in the area is not well documented. Therefore, this paper is aimed at seasonal variation of upper Blue Nile basin moisture budget and the global moistures in the role of temporal and spatial precipitation variability. To this end, we used European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecast (ECMWF) data from 1979-2017. The UBNB moisture contributed precipitation in the central parts of the study area during the summer season, while in spring; it contributed in southern part of the study area. Northwest part of the study area got precipitation from the basin moistures during autumn season. The recycling ratios for four seasons (summer, autumn, spring and winter) were 9.70%, 16.33%, 19.01%, and 35.30% respectively. The maximum amount of precipitation is extracted from the local moistures during winter season. The annual average value of recycling ratio was found 20.11%. Hence, we concluded that UBNB moisture budget had lesser contribution of precipitation over the study area. It rather contributed a significant precipitation to the neighboring countries such as Egypt and Sudan. Further studies on moisture budget are required to explain this phenomenon in the context of Ethiopia.

Upper Blue Nile basin (UBNB) is the water tower of Ethiopia and downstream countries. It contributes significant moistures to the surrounding atmosphere. However, the contribution of the moisture from the basin to the precipitation in the area is not well documented. Therefore, this paper is aimed at seasonal variation of upper Blue Nile basin moisture budget and the global moistures in the role of temporal and spatial precipitation variability. To this end, we used European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecast (ECMWF) data from 1979-2017. The UBNB moisture contributed precipitation in the central parts of the study area during the summer season, while in spring; it contributed in southern part of the study area. Northwest part of the study area got precipitation from the basin moistures during autumn season. The recycling ratios for four seasons (summer, autumn, spring and winter) were 9.70%, 16.33%, 19.01%, and 35.30% respectively. The maximum amount of precipitation is extracted from the local moistures during winter season. The annual average value of recycling ratio was found 20.11%. Hence, we concluded that UBNB moisture budget had lesser contribution of precipitation over the study area. It rather contributed a significant precipitation to the neighboring countries such as Egypt and Sudan. Further studies on moisture budget are required to explain this phenomenon in the context of Ethiopia.

The Convective Rainfall Rate from Cloud Physical Properties (CRPh) for Meteosat Second Generation Satellites is a day-only precipitation algorithm developed at the Spanish Meteorological Agency (AEMET) for EUMETSAT’ Satellite Application Facility in support to Nowcasting and Very Short Range Forecasting (NWC SAF). It is therefore mainly intended to provide input for monitoring and near-real-time forecasts for the next few hours. This paper critically discusses the theoretical basis of the algorithm with special emphasis in the empirical values and assumptions in the microphysics of precipitation and compares the performances of the CRPh with its antecessor, the Convective Rainfall Rate algorithm (CRR), using an object-based method. The analyses show that AEMET’s CRPh is physically consistent and that outperforms the CRR. The applicability of the algorithm for nowcasting and the challenges to evolve the product to an all-day algorithm are also presented.

The main objective of this study is to search better prediction result of rainy seasonal rainfall (15 June-15 August). A correlation between rainfall of Bengali rainy seasons at Rangpur, Dhaka, Barisal and Sylhet and global sea surface temperature (SST) of different areas of the world was studied by using the both data of 1975- 2008 years with the help of the Climate Predictability Tool (CPT) to find more positive correlated SST with observed rainfall and use as predictor for giving the prediction of the year 2009. Using SST of one month before rainy season as predictor, the positive deviation of predicted rainfall from observed rainfall was 1.34 mm/day at Sylhet and 0.9 mm/day at Dhaka. The negative deviation of mean rainfall was 1.16 mm/day at Rangpur and 1.10 mm/day at Barisal. Again, using of starting one month SST of rainy season as predictor, positive deviation of predicted rainfall from observed rainfall was 4.03 mm/day at Sylhet. The positive deviation of daily mean rainfall was found 6.58 mm/day at Dhaka and 6.23 mm/day over southern Bangladesh. The study reveals that sea surface temperature (SST) of one month before rainy season was better predictor than SST of starting month of rainy season.

Electric and/or magnetic fields are generated by stationary charges, uniformly moving charges and accelerating charges. These field components are described in the literature as static fields, velocity fields (or generalized Coulomb field) and radiation fields (or acceleration fields), respectively. In the literature, the electromagnetic fields generated by lightning return strokes are presented using the field components associated with short dipoles and in this description the one to one association of the electromagnetic field terms with the physical process that gives rise to them is lost. In this paper, we will derive expressions for the electromagnetic fields using field equations associated with accelerating (and moving) charges and separate the resulting fields into static, velocity and radiation fields. The results illustrates how the radiation fields emanating from the lightning channel give rise to field terms varying as inverse of distance and distance squired, the velocity fields generating field terms varying as inverse of distance squired and the static fields generating fields components varying as inverse of distance squired and distance cube. These field components depend explicitly on the speed of propagation of the current pulse. However, the total field does not depend explicitly on the speed of propagation of the current pulse. It is shown that these field components can be combined to generate the field components pertinent to the dipole technique. However, in this conversion process the connection of the field components to the physical process taking place at the source that generate these fields (i.e. static charges, uniformly moving charges and accelerating charges) is lost.

We propose a new technique to prepare statistically-robust benchmarking data for evaluating chemical transport model meteorology and air quality parameters within the urban boundary layer. The approach employs atmospheric class-typing, using nocturnal radon measurements to assign atmospheric mixing classes, and can be applied temporally (across the diurnal cycle), or spatially (to create angular distributions of pollutants as a top-down constraint on emissions inventories). In this study only a short (<1-month) campaign is used, but grouping of the relative mixing classes based on nocturnal mean radon concentrations can be adjusted according to dataset length (i.e., number of days per category), or desired range of within-class variability. Calculating hourly distributions of observed and simulated values across diurnal composites of each class-type helps to: (i) bridge the gap between scales of simulation and observation, (ii) represent the variability associated with spatial and temporal heterogeneity of sources and meteorology without being confused by it, and (iii) provide an objective way to group results over whole diurnal cycles that separates ‘natural complicating factors’ (synoptic non-stationarity, rainfall, mesoscale motions, extreme stability, etc.) from problems related to parameterizations, or between-model differences. We demonstrate the utility of this technique using output from a suite of seven contemporary regional forecast and chemical transport models. Meteorological model skill varied across the diurnal cycle for all models, with an additional dependence on the atmospheric mixing class that varied between models. From an air quality perspective, model skill regarding the duration and magnitude of morning and evening “rush hour” pollution events varied strongly as a function of mixing class. Model skill was typically the lowest when public exposure would have been the highest, which has important implications for assessing potential health risks in new and rapidly evolving urban regions, and also for prioritizing the areas of model improvement for future applications.

Earth atmosphere is almost opaque in the infrared: about 374 W/m² is absorbed by the atmosphere out of 396 W/m² surface upward longwave radiation, and only about 22 W/m² leaves the system unabsorbed in the atmospheric window. This makes rise to the idea to approximate the annual global mean energy flow system from a simple idealized greenhouse model, where the surface is surrounded by a single-layer shortwave (SW) transparent, longwave (LW) opaque, non-turbulent atmosphere. The energy flows in this geometry can be described by elementary arithmetic relationships. Starting from this model, the realistic Earth’s atmosphere can be achieved by introducing partial atmospheric SW opacity, partial atmospheric LW transparency and turbulent fluxes during the course of the deduction. The resulted global mean energy flow system is then compared to several data sets such as satellite observations from the CERES mission; estimates using direct surface observations and climate models; global energy and water cycle assessments; and independent detailed clear-sky radiative transfer computations. We find that the deduction from this idealized model approximates the real values in Earth energy budget with reasonable accuracy: the deduced fluxes and the observed ones are consistent within the acknowledged error of observations; while fundamental features of the initial geometry like special ratios and definite relationships between the fluxes are preserved.

This paper contributes to the understating of tornadoes in South Africa using case study analysis. In South Africa tornadoes are the recurring phenomenon (the climatology) but so far they have received less attention. Damages from storms itself (tornadoes inclusive) are significant in South Africa relative to other weather-related disasters for example floods, heat waves, and droughts. For their understanding, a case study approach was adopted in the current study. Data were in courtesy of the following, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), National Centers for Environmental Predictions (NCEP), Eumetsat Germany, and South African Weather Service (SAWS). The aim of the study was to provide an overview of the occurrence of tornadoes in South Africa using a Klerksdorp tornado, which occurred on March 4, 2007, Northwest Province in South Africa. From the case study analysis, the tornado was associated with the cold front and cut-off low (both are extratropical circulation) which were the dominant weather systems of the day. Therefore we conclude that, a case study approach may be the best way to study events of these nature for a more informed decision, for example, issuing an early warning system. In future, case studies, for example, involving interaction between extratropical and tropical circulation will also be an interesting study.